뗚28뻭ꆡ뗚5웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡVol128,No152009쓪ꆡꆡ5퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ벼ꆡ쫵ꆡ뺭ꆡ볃TechnologyEconomꆡꆡꆡꆡicsMay,2009닆헾횧얩춶죫폫돇쿧튻쳥뮯맘쾵퇐뺿쯕뒺붭(훐맺얩튵듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺,놱뺩100083)햪ꆡ튪:놾컄퓚닢움돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄믹뒡짏,뚨솿럖컶쇋닆헾횧얩춶죫뫍죋뻹닆헾횧돶벰웤뇈횵ꆢ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뫍죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶벰웤뇈횵뛔돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄펰쿬ꆣ럖컶뷡맻쿔쪾,닆헾횧얩춶죫뫍죋뻹닆헾횧돶벰웤뇈횵뗈틲쯘뛔돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄펰쿬뫜듳,쿖듦컊쳢쫇닆헾횧얩춶죫햼닆헾횧돶뇈샽뗍쟒돊쿂붵쟷쫆,ퟜ솿쮮욽튲뷏뗍ꆣퟮ뫳,놾컄룹뻝럖컶뷡맻쳡돶쇋쿠펦뗄헾닟붨틩ꆣ맘볼듊:닆헾횧얩춶죫;돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈;뚨솿럖컶훐춼럖샠뫅:ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1002-980X(2009)05-0076-05퇐뺿쇋닆헾횧얩횧돶폫얩쏱뒿쫕죫볤뗄맘쾵,샽죧,1ꆡ컄쿗ퟛ쫶뫍퇐뺿틢틥헔쪯샚죏캪닆헾횧얩횧돶폫얩쏱뒿쫕죫뇤뚯횮볤듦떳뗄쪮웟듳횸돶:튪춳돯돇쿧랢햹,붨솢틔릤듙퓚ퟅ튻뚨뗄솪쾵,쳡룟뛔닆헾횧얩횧돶뗄ퟜ솿늢뗷얩ꆢ틔돇듸쿧뗄뎤킧믺훆,탎돉돇쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹튻헻웤뷡릹쫇얤얩쏱뒿쫕죫퓶뎤춣훍뗄폐킧쫖쳥뮯탂룱뻖ꆣ횻폐췆뷸돇쿧튻쳥뮯,닅쓜훰붥쯵킡뛎[6]ꆣ돇쿧닮틬,좫쏦쪵쿖킡뾵,릹붨뫍킳짧믡ꆣ쒿잰,쿠듓틔짏컄쿗믘맋뿉횪,헫뛔볓듳닆헾횧얩솦뛈ꆢ맘헾뢮늿쏅뫍샭싛뷧뛔죧뫎퓶볓뛔얩튵뗄닆헾춶죫췆뷸돇쿧튻쳥뮯랢햹뗄퇐뺿쿠뛔뷏짙,뛔룶낸뻟쳥뫍쯵킡돇쿧닮뻠뷸탐쇋탭뛠퇐뺿ꆣ컒맺닆헾늿얩튵럖컶룼짙;뛸뛔닆헾횧얩춶죫폫돇쿧튻쳥뮯뷸탐뚨쮾ꆰ릫릲닆헾뢲룇얩듥컊쳢퇐뺿ꆱ뿎쳢ퟩ튻훂죏캪:솿럖컶뗄컄쿗짐캴랢쿖ꆣ뫓쓏쪡퓚돇쿧튻쳥뮯뷸돌헾뢮닆헾쫇얩듥릫릲닺욷뗄훷튪쳡릩헟;튪훘쫓얩훐듦퓚뗄컊쳢뻟폐뗤탍탔,죧닆헾횧얩뷰춶죫ퟜ듥릫릲닺욷뗄쫐뎡뮯릩룸랽쪽;릫릲닆헾뢲룇얩듥솿쮮욽뗍ꆢ춶죫뷡릹늻뺡뫏샭ꆢ뷰춶죫킧싊뷏뗍뛔춳돯돇쿧킭뗷랢햹뫍릹붨뫍킳짧믡ꆢ쪵쿖킡뾵짧뗈,헢킩떼훂쇋웤돇쿧랢햹늻욽뫢ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦,틔뫓믡햽싔쒿뇪틔벰붨짨탂얩듥뚼폐훘듳햽싔틢틥[1]ꆣ쓏쪡캪샽살퇐뺿닆헾횧얩뗈쿠맘춶죫폫돇쿧튻쳥뮯맺볒랢룄캯ꆰ돇쿧튻쳥뮯룄룯쫔뗣ꆱ뗷퇐ퟩ죏캪,돇맘쾵뗄컄쿗뫜짙ꆣ틲듋,헫뛔쿖폐퇐뺿뗄늻ퟣ,놾컄쿧튻쳥뮯랢햹뗄훘뗣펦럅퓚얩듥췁뗘ꆢ샍뚯솦쇷뚯ꆢ퓚닢움돇쿧튻쳥뮯랢햹뗄믹뒡짏,릹붨쇋3룶뛠풪얩듥릫릲럾컱릩룸죽듳랽쏦ꆣ컢좺죏캪,튪붨솢틔믘맩볆솿뺭볃쒣탍,럖뇰뚨솿럖컶쇋좫맺ꆢ뫓쓏쪡벰닆헾춶죫캪떼쿲뗄뛠풪죚쟾뗀,횧돖얩듥,듙뷸돇웤쪡쾽쫐죽룶닣듎뗄돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾횧쿧튻쳥뮯,틀뾿킡돇헲붨짨폫쿧헲웳튵랢햹,뛾헟쿠얩틔벰쯹햼냙럖뇈ꆢ죋뻹닆헾횧돶ꆢ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡뮥듙뷸쪵쿖틔돇듸쿧듙얩[2]ꆣ탭뾪슼횸돶,뇘탫내만뚨닺춶틔벰쯹햼냙럖뇈뗈쿠맘뇤솿뗄맘쾵ꆣ헕돇쿧튻쳥뮯튪쟳붨솢릫릲닺욷릩룸훆뛈,폅뮯닆뇤솿뗄톡퓱뻟폐뛀뒴탔,퇐뺿쓚죝쳮늹쇋맘폚닆헾헾횧돶뷡릹,뿆톧뷧뚨룷벶헾뢮닆좨ꆢ쫂좨랶캧,룄횧얩춶죫폫돇쿧튻쳥뮯뗄뚨솿럖컶퇐뺿랽쏦뗄뿕룯ꆰퟔ짏뛸쿂ꆱ뗄릫릲닺욷뻶닟믺훆[3]ꆣ헔횸돶,냗,캪닉좡헽좷뗄닆헾헾닟ꆢ췆뷸돇쿧튻쳥뮯랢햹쳡떱잰얩듥릫릲닺욷릩룸쳥훆늻뿆톧,뷡릹늻뫏샭,퓰릩샭싛틀뻝ꆣ틲듋,놾컄뗄퇐뺿랽램뫍쓚죝뻹폐샭죎늻쏷좷,ퟜ솿늻돤ퟣ,틲듋펦훘뗣폅뮯얩듥릫릲닺싛뫍쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ욷뗄릩룸[4]ꆣ횣쳎ꆢ훜ퟔ컀죏캪,헾뢮뇘탫쫷솢룸폨얩쏱ꆰ맺쏱듽폶ꆱ틢쪶,틔돇쿧튻쳥뮯캪떼쿲릹붨릫2ꆡ컒맺닆헾횧얩춶죫뛔돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈펰쿬뗄볆솿쒣탍벰믘맩뷡맻럖컶[7-8]릲닆헾헾닟,춬쪱펦듓죋듳솢램ꆢꆰ퇴맢닆헾ꆱꆢ닆헾틥컱럖엤ꆢ뻶닟믺훆뇤뗈랽쏦뛠맜웫쿂,캪얩듥쳡ꆡꆡ펰쿬돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄틲쯘뫜뛠ꆣ돇쿧튻쳥뮯릩ퟣ솿ꆢ폅훊뗄릫릲닺욷[5]ꆣ퓚솿뮯럖컶훐,폐톧헟돌뛈뗄움볛쳥쾵럖캪돇쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹돌뛈뫍돇쿧쫕룥죕웚:2009-02-28ퟷ헟볲뷩:쯕뒺붭(1978ꆪ),쓐,뫾쓏뫢퇴죋,훐맺얩튵듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺늩쪿퇐뺿짺,퇐뺿랽쿲:뷰죚폫닆쮰ꆣ76' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ쯕뒺붭:닆헾횧얩춶죫폫돇쿧튻쳥뮯맘쾵퇐뺿닮틬돌뛈솽룶랽쏦,냼몬38룶움볛횸뇪ꆣ랲쫇횱뷓뇭2ꆡ컒맺돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩믲볤뷓펰쿬헢솽룶랽쏦38룶움볛횸뇪뗄틲쯘,뚼믡볆솿랽돌믘맩뷡맻펰쿬돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈ꋙꆣ놾컄훷튪쒿뗄쫇퇐뺿닆헾뇤솿쏻돆쾵쫽횵뇪ힼ닮T횵쿔훸탔룅싊횧얩춶죫폫돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄솿뮯맘쾵뎣쫽쿮351210176461100100,틲듋쿂쏦X10112010181290100쫗쿈퇐뺿죋뻹닆헾횧얩횧돶뛔돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄펰쿬,좻뫳퇐뺿죋뻹닆헾횧얩횧돶햼죋뻹닆헾횧돶뗄ꆡꆡ룹뻝뇭2,볆솿랽돌쪽(1)뿉닉폃쪽(2)뇭쪾ꆣ냙럖뇈뫍얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶햼죋뻹좫짧Y=35121+0112X1ꆣ(2)랽돌쪽(2)믡만뚨닺춶냙럖뇈뗈틲쯘뛔돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄뇭듯뗄횱맛몬틥캪돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈펰쿬ꆣ폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩돊헽쿠맘맘쾵,죴쓪죋뻹닆헾횧얩쎿퓶볓1풪,돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뻍쳡룟0112룶냙럖211ꆡ1978ꆪ2007쓪훐맺돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩뗄맘쾵뗣;뮻퇔횮,죴돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈쳡룟튻룶냙럖뗣,떱짨훐맺돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩뗄맘쾵쓪죋뻹닆헾횧얩뻍믡퓶볓8133풪ꆣ쪵볊짏,훐맺듓뿉틔닉폃볆솿랽돌쪽1978ꆪ2007쓪돇쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹톸쯙,헢듳듳췆뷸(1)뇭쪾ꆣ쇋돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈,헢늻뷶뗃틦폚죋뻹닆헾횧얩뗄Y=C+ꛁX1ꆣ(1)쪽퓶볓,뛸쟒뗃틦폚돇쿧뺭볃짧믡뿬쯙랢햹뗈웤쯻훮(1)훐:Y뇭쪾돇쿧튻쳥뮯쪵쿖돌뛈;X1뇭쪾죋뻹닆헾횧얩;C뇭쪾뎣쫽쿮ꆣ틲뇤솿Y뗄쫽뻝살뛠틲쯘ꆣ틲듋,볆솿랽돌쪽(2)쯹뇭쪾뗄죋뻹닆헾횧ퟔ폚뫓쓏쪡랢햹뫍룄룯캯풱믡ꆰ돇쿧튻쳥뮯뗄움볛얩뛔돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈펰쿬뗄쾵쫽쫽횵욫듳,벴웤쯻횸뇪쳥쾵퇐뺿ꆱ뿎쳢ퟩ퇐뺿뷡맻ꋚ(볻뇭1)ꆣퟔ뇤솿쳵볾늻뇤,떱쓪죋뻹닆헾횧얩쎿퓶볓1풪,돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈쳡룟펦룃킡폚0112룶냙럖뗣,뮻퇔횮,돇쿧X1뗄쫽뻝살ퟔ폚ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ(1979ꆪ2008쓪),릲30룶맛달횵ꆣ볆솿뷡맻쿔쪾,랽돌뗷헻뫳뗄튻쳥뮯돌뛈쳡룟튻룶냙럖뗣,떱쓪죋뻹닆헾횧얩펦룃퓶볓8133풪틔짏ꆣ춼1쯹쪾캪1978ꆪ2007쓪훐R2캪017,F횵캪6818,믘맩뷡맻볻뇭2ꆣ평뇭2뿉횪,쒣탍ퟜ쳥짏춨맽볆솿볬퇩ꆣ맺돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩맘쾵춼ꆣ뇭1ꆡ1978ꆪ2007쓪훐맺돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈ꆡꆡꆡ%쓪럝돇쿧튻쳥뮯쪵쿖돌뛈쓪럝돇쿧튻쳥뮯쪵쿖돌뛈197833172199338157197934134199438155198035145199539147198135175199641101198236163199741159춼1ꆡ1978ꆪ2007쓪훐맺돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈198337129199842101폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩ퟟ쫆춼(%;풪)198438111199941169198540172200042124198639187200142179212ꆡ훐맺돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩뗈쿠맘198740149200243149뇤솿쯹햼냙럖뇈뗄맘쾵198841100200344134놾뷚퇐뺿1978ꆪ2007쓪훐맺돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈198940157200445137폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩햼죋뻹닆헾횧돶뗄냙럖뇈ꆢ얩듥죋199039183200546187뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶햼죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶199139169200648172뗄냙럖뇈횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ짨쯼쏇횮볤뗄맘쾵뿉폃볆솿199239146200750129ꆡꆡ쫽뻝살풴:뫓쓏쪡랢햹뫍룄룯캯풱믡ꆰ돇쿧튻쳥뮯뗄움볛횸뇪쳥랽돌쪽(3)뇭쪾:쾵퇐뺿ꆱ뿎쳢ퟩ퇐뺿뷡맻ꆣ(쿂춬)ꋙꆡ놾컄폐맘돇쿧튻쳥뮯뗄움볛횸뇪쳥쾵뗄싛쫶틔벰돇쿧튻쳥뮯쪵쿖돌뛈쫽뻝살풴폚:뫓쓏쪡랢룄캯뗄퇐뺿뿎쳢ꆶ돇쿧튻쳥뮯뗄움볛횸뇪쳥쾵퇐뺿ꆷ,뿎쳢훷돖죋쯕뒺붭ꆣꋚꆡ쿂컄틲뇤솿Y뗄쫽뻝살풴폫듋쿠춬ꆣ77' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚28뻭ꆡ뗚5웚ꆡꆡY=C+ꛁX5+ꛂX6ꆣ(3)뛈폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩뗈쿠맘뇤솿쯹햼냙럖뇈뗄맘쾵,퓚쪽(3)훐:Y뇭쪾돇쿧튻쳥뮯쪵쿖돌뛈;X5뇭듓훐뿉틔뾴돶돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈(A)폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩쪾죋뻹닆헾횧얩햼죋뻹닆헾횧돶뗄냙럖뇈;X6뇭쪾햼죋뻹닆헾횧돶뗄냙럖뇈(B)ꆢ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶햼죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨뚨닺춶햼죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄냙럖뇈닺춶뗄냙럖뇈;C뇭쪾뎣쫽쿮ꆣ틲뇤솿Y뗄쫽뻝(C)뗄맘쾵ꆣ볻뇭1,ퟔ뇤솿X5ꆢX6뗄쫽뻝ퟔ폚ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ(1979ꆪ2008쓪),늢ퟶ쿠펦볆쯣,릲30룶맛달횵ꆣ볆솿뷡맻쿔쪾,랽돌뗷헻뫳뗄R2캪0166,쯹폐뇤솿퓚5%쮮욽짏춨맽T볬퇩,F횵캪2614,믘맩뷡맻볻뇭3,쒣탍ퟜ쳥짏춨맽볆솿볬퇩ꆣ룹뻝뇭3,쪽(3)튲뿉뇭쪾캪쪽(4):Y=60158-1128X5-0143X6ꆣ(4)랽돌쪽(4)뇭듯뗄몬틥캪돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩햼죋뻹닆헾횧돶뗄냙럖뇈ꆢ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶햼죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄냙춼2ꆡ1978ꆪ2007쓪훐맺돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹럖뇈돊뢺쿠맘맘쾵,벴떱쓪죋뻹닆헾횧얩햼죋뻹닆닆헾횧얩뗈쿠맘뇤솿쯹햼냙럖뇈뗄맘쾵헾횧돶뗄냙럖뇈ꆢ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶햼3ꆡ뫓쓏쪡닆헾횧얩춶죫뛔돇쿧튻쳥뮯죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄냙럖뇈쎿쳡룟1룶냙럖돌뛈펰쿬뗄볆솿쒣탍벰믘맩뷡맻럖컶뗣,돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈럖뇰붵뗍1128룶냙럖뗣뫍0143룶냙럖뗣ꆣ랽돌쪽(4)쯹뇭쿖돶살뗄횻쫇뇭쏦ꆡꆡ놾컄샻폃2005쓪뫍2007쓪뫓쓏쪡벰쪡쾽쫐쿖쿳뗄32룶퇹놾(쫽뻝틑춨맽컯볛욽복뗈)럖컶뫓쓏쪡,웤쓚퓚뗄풭틲쫇:돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄움볛쳥쾵럖캪돇쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹돌뛈뫍돇쿧닮틬돌뛈솽룶랽벰웤쪡쾽쫐뗄돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩ꆢ죋쏦뻹닆헾횧돶ꆢ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶ꆢ죋뻹좫,뛸죋뻹닆헾횧얩햼죋뻹닆헾횧돶뗄냙럖뇈뫍얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶햼죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺짧믡만뚨닺춶횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ짨쯼쏇횮볤뗄맘쾵춶뗄냙럖뇈헢솽랽쏦훷튪펰쿬돇쿧닮틬돌뛈뿉틔폃볆솿랽돌쪽(5)뇭쪾ꆣ;Y=C+ꛁX1+ꛂX2+ꛃX3+ꛄX4ꆣ(5)1978ꆪ2007쓪훐맺돇쿧뺭볃짧믡훰쓪뿬쯙랢햹,헢퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏쳡룟쇋돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈,떫폫듋춬쪱쪽(5)훐:Y뇭쪾돇쿧튻쳥뮯쪵쿖돌뛈;X1뇭쪾,죋뻹닆헾횧얩햼죋뻹닆헾횧돶뗄냙럖뇈뫍얩듥죋뻹죋뻹닆헾횧얩;X2뇭쪾죋뻹닆헾횧돶;X3뇭쪾얩듥좫짧믡만뚨닺춶햼죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶;X4뇭쪾죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨냙럖뇈좴듳쳥짏훰쓪쿂붵,헢떼훂쇋돇쿧퓚뫜뛠랽닺춶;C뇭쪾뎣쫽쿮ꆣ틲뇤솿Y뗄쫽뻝볻뇭4쏦뗄닮뻠(죧돇쿧뻓쏱쫕죫닮뻠)튲듳쳥짏쫇훰쓪삩뫍뇭5,ퟔ뇤솿X1ꆢX2ꆢX3뫍X4뗄쫽뻝살ퟔ폚ꆶ뫓듳뗄쓏쪡춳볆쓪본ꆷ(2006쓪뫍2008쓪),늢ퟶ쿠펦볆,헢튻뚨돌뛈짏붵뗍쇋돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈;뇈뷏짏쫶쳡룟뫍붵뗍돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄솽샠틲쯘,잰헟풶쯣,릲32룶맛달횵ꆣ볆솿뷡맻쿔쪾,랽돌뗷헻뫳뗄듳폚뫳헟,틲듋돶쿖쇋죋뻹닆헾횧얩햼죋뻹닆헾횧R2횵캪0184,쯹폐뇤솿퓚5%쮮욽짏춨맽T볬퇩,돶뗄냙럖뇈ꆢ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶햼죋뻹F횵캪3614,믘맩뷡맻볻뇭6ꆣ듓뇭6뿉횪,쒣탍ퟜ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄냙럖뇈폫돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈쪵쳥짏춨맽볆솿볬퇩ꆣ훊짏돊헽쿠맘맘쾵뛸퓚볆솿쒣탍훐좴뇭쿖돶뢺쿠맘뇭4ꆡ2005쓪뫓쓏쪡벰쪡쾽쫐돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈%뗄쿖쿳ꆣ뗘쟸돇쿧튻쳥뮯쪵쿖돌뛈뗘쟸돇쿧튻쳥뮯쪵쿖돌뛈뇭3ꆡ훐맺돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩뗈뫓쓏쪡45111퇴쫐46150쿠맘뇤솿쯹햼냙럖뇈맘쾵뗄믘맩럖컶뷡맻횣훝쫐67175탭닽쫐43158뾪럢쫐37128죽쏅쾿쫐55124뇤솿쏻돆쾵쫽횵뇪ힼ닮T횵쿔훸탔룅싊욽뚥즽쫐52126짌쟰쫐36185뎣쫽쿮601583112191410100낲퇴쫐42112탅퇴쫐34130X뫗뇚쫐46193훜뿚쫐261685-11280126-41930100탂쿧쫐41102십뗪쫐32173X6-01430117-21540102ꆡꆡ쫽뻝살풴:뫓쓏쪡랢햹뫍룄룯캯풱믡ꆰ돇쿧튻쳥뮯뗄움볛횸뇪쳥ꆡꆡ춼2쯹쪾캪1978ꆪ2007쓪훐맺돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌쾵퇐뺿ꆱ뿎쳢ퟩ퇐뺿뷡맻ꆣ78' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ쯕뒺붭:닆헾횧얩춶죫폫돇쿧튻쳥뮯맘쾵퇐뺿듳,틲뛸쿠뛔붵뗍쇋돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈ꆣ뫓쓏쪡돇쿧뇭5ꆡ2007쓪뫓쓏쪡룷쪡쾽쫐돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈ꆡ%뺭볃짧믡랢햹돌뛈뷏룟뗄쪡쾽쫐쯹쳡룟뗄돇쿧튻쳥뗘쟸돇쿧튻쳥뮯뮯돌뛈,듳폚룃쪡돇쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹돌뛈뷏뗍뗄쪡쪵쿖돌뛈뗘쟸돇쿧튻쳥뮯쪵쿖돌뛈횣훝쫐69182탭닽쫐쾽쫐쯹붵뗍뗄돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈,틲듋돶쿖쇋죋뻹닆53171뾪럢쫐48191뫓쫐55101헾횧얩ꆢ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶폫돇쿧튻쳥싥퇴쫐58125죽쏅쾿쫐61116욽뚥즽쫐뮯돌뛈쪵훊짏돊헽쿠맘맘쾵,뛸퓚볆솿쒣탍훐좴뇭50122쓏퇴쫐46148낲퇴쫐51100짌쟰쫐43118쿖돶뢺쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ샽죧,퇴쫐돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뫍뫗뇚쫐56149탅퇴쫐44108탂쿧쫐55183훜뿚쫐40147죋뻹닆헾횧얩럖뇰쫇48155%ꆢ64164풪,뛸탭닽쫐붹ퟷ쫐62157십뗪쫐41129퇴쫐48155볃풴쫐럖뇰쫇53171%ꆢ43166풪,탂쿧쫐럖뇰쫇55183%ꆢ67123ꆡꆡ쫽뻝살풴:뫓쓏쪡랢햹뫍룄룯캯풱믡ꆰ돇쿧튻쳥뮯뗄움볛횸뇪쳥53143풪;탭닽쫐뫍탂쿧쫐뗄돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뚼뇈쾵퇐뺿ꆱ뿎쳢ퟩ퇐뺿뷡맻ꆣ퇴쫐룟,헢늢늻쫇틲캪탭닽쫐뫍탂쿧쫐뗄죋뻹닆뇭6ꆡ뫓쓏쪡룷쪡쾽쫐돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫헾횧얩뇈퇴쫐뗍,뛸쫇틲캪탭닽쫐뫍탂쿧쫐돽죋닆헾횧얩믘맩럖컶뷡맻뻹닆헾횧얩틔췢뗄튻킩틲쯘쯹떼훂뗄돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뇤솿쏻돆쾵쫽횵뇪ힼ닮T횵쿔훸탔룅싊뛈뗄쳡룟,듳폚웤틲죋뻹닆헾횧얩뗍쯹떼훂뗄돇쿧뎣쫽쿮3019112131913132701000튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄붵뗍ꆣX1-0102701074-0136201720X201017010121149201147돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾횧돶ꆢ죋뻹좫짧믡X3-0100101005-0129401771만뚨닺춶솽룶틲쯘돊헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ죋뻹닆헾횧X401003010021151701141돶춶죫쎿퓶볓57137풪,돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뻍믡쳡룟튻룶냙럖뗣;춬퇹,죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶쎿퓶볓ꆡꆡ듓뇭6뿉뗃,쪽(5)튲뿉틔닉폃쪽(6)뇭쪾ꆣ383188풪,돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뻍믡쳡룟튻룶냙럖뗣ꆣY=30191-01027X1+01017X2-010014X3+죋뻹닆헾횧얩ꆢ죋뻹닆헾횧돶ꆢ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨010026X4ꆣ(6)닺춶뫍죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶퓚볆솿랽돌쪽랽돌쪽(6)뇭듯뗄몬틥캪돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋(6)훐뗄쾵쫽럖뇰쫇-01027ꆢ01017ꆢ-010014ꆢ뻹닆헾횧얩뫍얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶솽룶틲010026ꆣ헢킩쾵쫽볈랴펳쇋룷틲쯘뛔돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌쯘돊뢺쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ죋뻹닆헾횧얩춶죫쎿복짙37140뛈펰쿬뗄탔훊,폖랴펳쇋뛔웤펰쿬뗄듳킡ꆣ죋뻹닆풪,돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈랴뛸쳡룟튻룶냙럖뗣;춬퇹,얩헾횧얩쿮쾵쫽뗄뻸뛔횵쫇얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶쎿복짙700177풪,돇쿧춶뗄뷼20놶,죋뻹닆헾횧돶쿮쾵쫽쫇죋뻹좫짧믡튻쳥뮯돌뛈랴뛸쳡룟튻룶냙럖뗣ꆣ랽돌쪽(6)쯹뇭만뚨닺춶뗄615놶,틲듋퓶볓죋뻹닆헾횧얩춶쿖돶살뗄튲횻쫇뇭쏦쿖쿳,웤쓚퓚풭틲폫짏컄틑뺭죫뇈퓶볓얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뫍퓶볓죋뻹닻쫶뗄돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩햼죋뻹닆헾좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뛔돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄펰쿬듳,횧돶뗄냙럖뇈ꆢ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶햼죋펰쿬킧맻쏷쿔,쳘뇰쫇퓶볓죋뻹닆헾횧얩춶죫뛔돇뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄냙럖뇈돊뢺쿠맘뗄풭틲샠쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄펰쿬룼듳,펰쿬킧맻룼쏷쿔ꆣ[9]쯆ꆣ돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄움볛쳥쾵럖캪돇쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹돌뛈뫍돇쿧닮틬돌뛈솽룶랽쏦,웤좨훘럖뇰쫇4ꆡ뷡싛폫붨틩60%ꆢ40%ꆣ죋뻹닆헾횧얩뫍얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨듓짏쏦럖컶뿉횪,돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾닺춶훷튪펰쿬돇쿧닮틬돌뛈,퓶볓웤횧돶,뻍믡횧얩ꆢ죋뻹닆헾횧돶뫍죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶죽쯵킡돇쿧닮뻠,쳡룟돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈ꆣ퓚뫓쓏쪡돇룶틲쯘뚼돊헽쿠맘맘쾵;돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈쳡룟튻룶쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹돌뛈뷏룟뗄쪡쾽쫐,펰쿬돇쿧뺭볃냙럖뗣,떱쓪죋뻹닆헾횧얩ꆢ죋뻹닆헾횧돶뫍죋뻹좫짧믡랢햹돌뛈뗄틲쯘쳡룟쇋돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈,떫춬짧믡만뚨닺춶뻍믡럖뇰퓶볓8133풪ꆢ57137풪쪱헢킩쪡쾽쫐쎻폐내뇈샽쳡룟죋뻹닆헾횧얩춶죫뫍뫍383188풪ꆣ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶,쿠랴,짵훁퓚뻸뛔솿놾컄듓솽룶닣쏦럖컶쇋돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹짏뇈돇쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹돌뛈뷏뗍뗄쪡쾽쫐뮹짙,헢닆헾횧얩햼죋뻹닆헾횧돶냙럖뇈뗈뇤솿퓚뛠풪믘맩떼훂쇋돇쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹돌뛈뷏룟쪡쾽쫐뗄돇쿧닮쒣탍훐뇭쿖캪뢺쿠맘떫놾훊짏캪헽쿠맘뗄풭틲ꆣ튻틬뿉쓜랴뛸뇈돇쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹돌뛈뷏뗍뗄쪡쾽쫐쫇ퟝ쿲럖컶,웊컶쇋ퟔ1978쓪훁2007쓪헢30쓪볤79' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚28뻭ꆡ뗚5웚훐맺돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩햼죋뻹닆헾횧짧믡랢햹돌뛈풽룟뗄뗘랽,돇쿧닮뻠풽쫇돊삩듳뗄돶뗄냙럖뇈ꆢ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶햼죋뻹쟷쫆,듓뛸췆뷸돇쿧튻쳥뮯랢햹ꆣ뛾쫇컈뚨뫍뾪뇙좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄냙럖뇈뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ평폚훐돯쟾뗀,랢믓닆헾뷰틽떼ퟷ폃,퓋폃쳹쾢ꆢ늹훺맺퓚헢30쓪볤돇쿧뺭볃짧믡훰쓪뿬쯙랢햹,떫춬쪱뗈랽쪽컼틽짧믡룷랽쏦뗄뷰춶죫ꆰ죽얩ꆱ쇬폲,랢죋뻹닆헾횧얩햼죋뻹닆헾횧돶뗄냙럖뇈뫍얩듥죋뻹햹얩듥뺭볃,쯵킡돇쿧닮뻠,췆뷸돇쿧튻쳥뮯랢햹ꆣ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶햼죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄평짏쏦럖컶뿉횪:닆헾횧얩뷰뗄좷뿉틔웰떽훷떼냙럖뇈듳쳥짏훰쓪쿂붵,쯹틔떼훂쇋돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뫍틽떼ퟷ폃,평폚컒맺뗄닆솦폐쿞,뛸쟒뛔얩튵샺쪷뛈폫헢킩뇤솿퓚뛠풪믘맩쒣탍훐뇭쿖캪뢺쿠맘,떫잷헋첫뛠,틲듋,뇘탫랢믓뫍훘쫓닆헾횧얩뷰뗄틽놾훊짏캪헽쿠맘ꆣ뛾쫇뫡쿲럖컶,웊컶쇋뫓쓏쪡떼ퟷ폃,맄샸짧믡솦솿뷸죫얩듥짧믡랢햹쇬폲,ퟛ뫏2005쓪ꆢ2007쓪쪡쾽쫐돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾퓋폃횱뷓늹훺ꆢ듻뿮쳹쾢ꆢ붱샸듙뷸ꆢ떣놣ꆢ헾닟폅믝횧얩ꆢ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ뗈랽쪽,컼틽쏱볤놾ꆢ짧믡뷰춶죫얩튵,틔췘뿭평폚뫓쓏쪡돇쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹돌뛈뷏룟뗄쪡쾽쫐쎻얩튵춶쟾뗀ꆣ췪짆뫍랢햹놾쫐뎡,뗷뚯뫍틽떼폐내뇈샽쳡룟죋뻹닆헾횧얩춶죫뫍얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡룷춶훷쳥퓶볓얩튵춶죫,볓듳얩튵샻폃췢ꆢ막럝만뚨닺춶,짵훁돇쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹돌뛈뷏룟뗄벯뫍탐튵쓚늿죚뗄솦뛈,첽쯷얩튵풴뾪랢뫍쪡쾽쫐뗄죋뻹닆헾횧얩춶죫뫍얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨놾펪퓋뗄폐킧탎쪽,횧돖릤짌웳튵춶얩튵쿮쒿,닺춶뗄뻸뛔솿뇈룃쪡돇쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹돌뛈뷏훰늽붨솢뛠쟾뗀뗄얩튵춶죫쳥쾵ꆣ듋췢,뮹튪뒴탂뗍뗄쪡쾽쫐짙,쯹틔떼훂쇋돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫죋뻹닆헾횧얩랽쪽,폅뮯닆헾횧얩횧돶뷡릹,쳡룟뷰춶닆헾횧얩ꆢ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶퓚뛠풪믘죫킧싊ꆣ[10-12]맩쒣탍훐뇭쿖캪뢺쿠맘,떫놾훊짏캪헽쿠맘ꆣퟛ뫏럖컶,튻랽쏦,죋뻹닆헾횧얩춶죫ꆢ죋뻹닆닎뾼컄쿗헾횧돶뫍얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗈틲쯘뛔돇[1]ꆡ닆헾늿얩튵쮾ꆰ릫릲닆헾뢲룇얩듥컊쳢퇐뺿ꆱ뿎쳢ퟩ.ꆰ릫쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈펰쿬뫜듳,폈웤쫇죋뻹닆헾횧얩햼죋릲닆헾뢲룇얩듥퇐뺿돉맻믣뇠ꆱ[G].놱뺩:닆헾늿얩튵뻹닆헾횧돶뗄냙럖뇈뛔돇쿧튻쳥뮯돌뛈펰쿬룼캪쏷쮾,2006:197-214,2452283.쿔뫍횱뷓,닆헾횧얩뷰웰떽쇋훷떼뫍틽떼ퟷ폃ꆣ[2]ꆡ컢좺1싛릤튵랴늸얩튵폫돇쿧튻쳥뮯랢햹[J]1얩튵쿖듺뮯퇐뺿,2006,27(1):35239.쇭튻랽쏦,뷒쪾쇋뛾룶늻솼뗄쟷쫆:튻쫇1978ꆪ[3]ꆡ탭뾪슼1돇쿧뺭볃릫릲닺욷릩룸쪧뫢뗄풭틲웊컶벰헾닟2007쓪컒맺죋뻹닆헾횧얩햼죋뻹닆헾횧돶뗄냙럖톡퓱[J]1떱듺뺭볃,2007(5):80-82.뇈ꆢ얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶햼죋뻹좫짧믡만[4]ꆡ헔1얩듥릫릲닺욷릩룸폫탂얩듥붨짨[J]1짧믡릤ퟷ,뚨닺춶뗄냙럖뇈돊쿂붵쟷쫆,쟒닆헾횧얩뷰2007(6):8-10.춶죫ퟜ솿쮮욽뗍ꆢ춶죫뷡릹늻뺡뫏샭ꆢ뷰춶죫킧싊[5]ꆡ횣쳎,훜ퟔ컀.춳돯돇쿧뗄릫릲닆헾헾닟뫍릫릲닺욷퇐뺿[J]1훘쟬붻춨듳톧톧놨:짧믡뿆톧냦,2007(5):34237.뷏뗍;뛾쫇틔뫓쓏쪡벰웤쪡쾽쫐캪샽,랢쿖쇋돇쿧뺭[6]ꆡ헔쪯샚1닆헾횧얩횧돶폫얩쏱뒿쫕죫맘쾵퇐뺿[J]1삼훝볃짧믡랢햹돌뛈풽룟뗄뗘랽풽쫇뫶쫓쳡룟죋뻹닆헾짌톧풺톧놨,2007,23(2):17222.횧얩춶죫뫍얩듥죋뻹좫짧믡만뚨닺춶죫,헢떼훂[7]ꆡ쇵럯캰1헾뢮볤틆횧뢶뗄닆헾뻹뗈뮯킧맻럖컶[J]1벼쇋돇쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹돌뛈풽룟뗄뗘랽뗄돇쿧닮뻠풽쫵뺭볃,2008,27(10):79284.돊삩듳뗄쟷쫆ꆣ[8]ꆡ쪩뫬.닆헾늹쳹뛔컒맺얩뮧얩튵놣쿕닎놣뻶닟펰쿬뗄쪵횤럖컶ꆪꆪꆪ틔헣붭쪡캪샽[J]1벼쫵뺭볃,2008,27(9),882뻝듋쳡돶틔쿂붨틩:튻쫇퓶볓닆헾뛔얩튵춶죫93.솦뛈,놣횤닆헾횧얩뷰ퟜ솿뗄컈뚨퓶뎤ꆣ내헕ꆶ얩[9]ꆡ풬뾪훇,헔횥뾡,헅짧쎷1얩튵벼쫵뷸늽릱쿗싊닢쯣랽램:튵램ꆷ뗄튪쟳낲업닆헾횧얩횧돶풤쯣,좷놣닆헾횧얩믘맋폫움컶[J]1벼쫵뺭볃,2008,27(2):64269.춶죫뇘탫룟폚뺭뎣탔닆헾쫕죫퓶뎤뇈샽[10]ꆡ쟘뢻1짧믡훷틥탂얩듥붨짨뗄죴룉쮼뾼[J]1얩튵뺭볃,닆헾횧얩뷰ퟜ솿훰쓪내뇈샽쫊떱쳡룟,뛴훆죋뻹닆헾횧얩컊쳢,2007(1):37243.[11]ꆡ쇖췲쇺1얩듥릫릲럾컱쫐뎡뮯릩룸훐뗄킧싊폫릫욽컊쳢햼죋뻹닆헾횧돶뗄냙럖뇈돊쿂붵뗄쟷쫆,탎돉틔릤첽쳖[J]1얩튵뺭볃컊쳢,2007(8):4210.듙얩ꆢ틔돇듸쿧뗄랢햹뷗뛎뫍맺쏱쫕죫럖엤룱뻖,평[12]ꆡ폚쫷즭1컒맺닆헾횧얩컊쳢퇐뺿[D]1뎤뒺:뚫놱쪦랶듳듋듙뷸돇쿧튻쳥뮯랢햹;춬쪱,돇쿧뺭볃짧믡랢햹돌톧,2006.뛈풽룟뗄뗘랽,풽튪훘쫓닆헾횧얩횧돶(쿂뗚91튳),좷놣닆헾횧얩춶죫폫뺭볃짧믡랢햹돉뇈샽퓶뎤,뛴훆돇쿧뺭볃80' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
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