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CHIPS BARRON'S STOCK PICK Follow
Why Intel Stock Is a
Buy Even After a
220% Rally
为何英特尔股票在暴
涨 220%后仍值得买⼊
By Al Root 作者：阿尔·鲁特 Follow
Updated April 17, 2026, 7:00 pm EDT / Original April 14, 2026, 7:00 pm EDT
更新于 2026 年 4 ⽉ 17 ⽇ 下午 7:00（美国东部夏令时） / 原⽂发布于 2026 年 4 ⽉ 14 ⽇ 下午 7:00（美
国东部夏令时）
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Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan joined the company in March 2025 and has moved
quickly. - Courtesy Intel Corporation
英特尔⾸席执⾏官陈⽴武于 2025 年 3 ⽉加⼊公司，并迅速展开⾏动。——图
⽚由英特尔公司提供
Intel stock has been on a tear. Investors should consider
buying it anyway.
英特尔股价近期表现强劲。投资者仍应考虑买⼊。
Coming into Tuesday, Intel shares were on a nine-day winning streak, gaining
58% over that span and leaving shares up 220% over the past 12 months.
Normally, Barron’s would shy away from recommending it. Our job is to
identify stocks before they take off, not tell our readers to buy after shares
have more than tripled. For a stock that has been as risky as Intel—its shares
have been 1½ times as volatile as the S&P 500 index over the past year—
getting it wrong will be painful.
截⾄周⼆，英特尔股价已连续九个交易⽇上涨，期间涨幅达 58%，过去 12 个
⽉累计涨幅⾼达 220%。通常情况下，《巴伦周刊》会避免推荐该股。 我们的
职责是发掘尚未起⻜的股票，⽽⾮在股价已翻三倍后才建议读者买⼊。对于英
特尔这样⻛险极⾼的股票——过去⼀年其股价波动幅度是标普 500 指数的
倍——⼀旦判断失误，损失将⼗分惨重。
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Consider, however, where Intel is coming from. It’s starting from a distressed
base—even after the recent gain, it lags behind the S&P 500 by 11 percentage
points annualized over the past five years—with no support from Wall Street
amid management turmoil. Now, with new leadership, a vastly improved
product road map, and a solid strategy, Intel has a path to joining the sector
elite, whose ranks include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Broadcom,
and Nvidia. While the stock dropped %, to $, on Tuesday, it could hit
$150, up 140%, in the coming years.
不过，我们需要考虑英特尔所处的境况。该公司起步于⼀个艰难的基点——即
便近期有所回升，但过去五年的年化回报率仍⽐标普 500 指数低 11 个百分点
——且在管理层动荡之际，未能获得华尔街的⽀持。 如今，凭借新的领导层、
⼤幅优化的产品路线图以及稳健的战略，英特尔已具备跻身⾏业精英⾏列的条
件，该⾏列中包括台积电、博通和英伟达。尽管周⼆股价下跌 %⾄ 美
元，但未来⼏年内有望涨⾄ 150 美元，涨幅达 140%。
“There is hair on the story,” says Krishna Chintalapalli, portfolio manager of
the Parnassus Value Equity and Value Select strategies. “If they get things
right, the payoff is huge.”
“这个故事⼤有可为，”帕纳索斯价值股票和价值精选策略的投资组合经理克⾥希
纳·钦塔拉帕利表示，“如果他们能把事情做好，回报将⾮常可观。”
Intel, as investors are painfully aware, has watched helplessly as other tech
companies racked up huge gains. Its stock peaked at $ in August 2000—
near the top of the dot-com boom—and has never really come close since.
While a pandemic boost for new laptops helped push shares as high as $
in 2020, the stock hit a multiyear low in June 2025, below $18 a share and
below book value. That 75% decline from its 2000 peak was the result of
missing manufacturing transitions, such as the move to extreme ultraviolet
semiconductor manufacturing, the shift to mobile computing, and the rise of
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graphic processing units, or GPUs, over central processing units, or CPUs.
正如投资者深感痛⼼地意识到，英特尔只能眼睁睁地看着其他科技公司赚得盆
满钵满。 其股价在 2000 年 8 ⽉——即互联⽹泡沫巅峰期——曾⼀度攀升⾄
美元，此后便再未接近这⼀⽔平。尽管 2020 年受疫情推动的新笔记本
电脑需求曾助推股价升⾄ 美元，但该股在 2025 年 6 ⽉跌⾄多年低点，
股价跌破 18 美元，甚⾄低于账⾯价值。 相较于 2000 年的峰值，股价下跌了
75%，这源于该公司错失了多项制造领域的转型机遇，例如向极紫外光
（EUV）半导体制造的转型、向移动计算的转型，以及图形处理单元（GPU）
在中央处理单元（CPU）领域中的崛起。
Intel was simply left behind. In 2000, the company reported sales of about
$34 billion and an operating profit of more than $10 billion. In 2025, sales
were $53 billion and the company lost $ billion, while Nvidia grew sales
from $735 million to $215 billion, with operating profit climbing from $59
million to $137 billion. A string of five successive CEOs, including 80486
processor-designer Pat Gelsinger, couldn’t fix the problem.
英特尔则被远远甩在后⾯。2000 年，该公司报告销售额约为 340 亿美元，营
业利润超过 100 亿美元。 到了 2025 年，英特尔的销售额为 530 亿美元，却亏
损了 22 亿美元；与此同时，英伟达的销售额从 亿美元飙升⾄ 2150 亿美
元，营业利润也从 5900 万美元攀升⾄ 1370 亿美元。包括 80486 处理器设计
者帕特·格尔⾟格在内的五任 CEO 接连上任，却都未能解决这⼀问题。
Enter Lip-Bu Tan, a venture capitalist and turnaround expert who was
responsible for the revival of Cadence Design Systems, which gained more
than 3,200% over his 12-year tenure.
此时，⻛险投资家兼企业重组专家谭⽴布登场。他曾主导 Cadence Design
Systems 的复兴，在其任职的 12 年间，该公司股价涨幅超过 3200%。
Tan took the reins in March 2025 and has moved quickly. He cut a bloated
workforce by more than 20,000 and dramatically cut cash burn. Intel’s free
cash flow was a cumulative negative $44 billion between 2022 and 2025—a
$107 billion swing from the prior four years—as investment spending shot
higher. Free cash flow was positive in the second half of last year and should
improve in the coming years as capital spending normalizes and revenue
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grows.
谭于 2025 年 3 ⽉接掌帅印后迅速采取⾏动。他裁减了 2 万多名冗余员⼯，并
⼤幅降低了现⾦消耗。随着投资⽀出激增，英特尔在 2022 年⾄ 2025 年间的
累计⾃由现⾦流为负 440 亿美元——与前四年相⽐，这⼀数字出现了 1070 亿
美元的剧烈波动。 去年下半年，⾃由现⾦流已转为正值，随着资本⽀出的回归
正常以及营收的增⻓，未来⼏年这⼀指标有望进⼀步改善。
Dwindling Share
In 2005, Intel made up % of the largest semiconductor players' overall
revenue. By 2025, its share dropped to %.
Company Share of Industry Revenue
Sources: Bloomberg, FactSet
0
200
400
$600 billion
2005 2015 202
INTC NVDA AVGO AMD TSM QCOM ADI TXN
Now Tan is focused on improving Intel’s manufacturing leadership and
getting it back into the artificial-intelligence fight. Intel and Alphabet are
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working together on AI and cloud infrastructure, while Intel will help Elon
Musk build and operate his “Terafab,” an AI chip-making joint venture
between SpaceX and Tesla. Intel is also developing chips designed to run AI
agents on laptops and AI accelerators, similar to Alphabet’s TPUs and
’s Tranium chips.
⽬前，谭正致⼒于提升英特尔在制造领域的领先地位，并助⼒其重返⼈⼯智能
领域的竞争。英特尔与 Alphabet 正在⼈⼯智能和云基础设施领域展开合作，
同时英特尔还将协助埃隆·⻢斯克建设并运营其“Terafab”——这是 SpaceX 与特
斯拉之间成⽴的⼀家⼈⼯智能芯⽚制造合资企业。此外，英特尔还在开发专为
在笔记本电脑上运⾏⼈⼯智能代理以及⼈⼯智能加速器⽽设计的芯⽚，其功能
类似于 Alphabet 的 TPU 和亚⻢逊的 Tranium 芯⽚。
In September, Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel, which will make custom x86
server CPUs to integrate with Nvidia products. Nvidia’s GPUs are expensive,
and Intel CPUs are a cost-effective way to support AI computing. “The
demand for the x86 server CPU has gone through the roof at hyperscalers,”
says Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes. “It’s not gonna stop…the x86
became an AI chip.”
今年 9 ⽉，英伟达向英特尔投资 50 亿美元，后者将⽣产定制版 x86 服务器
CPU，以与英伟达的产品进⾏整合。英伟达的 GPU 价格昂贵，⽽英特尔的
CPU 则是⽀持⼈⼯智能计算的⼀种⾼性价⽐⽅案。“超⼤规模云服务商对 x86
服务器 CPU 的需求已呈井喷之势，”Melius Research 分析师本·雷茨（Ben
Reitzes）表示。 “这种势头不会停⽌……x86 已经变成了 AI 芯⽚。”
Still, much of this good news is reflected in the stock. Shares now trade for 95
times expected earnings over the next 12 months, surpassing their previous
peak of 60 times reached in 2021, and fetching more than Nvidia, Taiwan
Semi, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices.
尽管如此，这些利好消息在很⼤程度上已反映在股价中。⽬前该股的市盈率为
未来 12 个⽉预期收益的 95 倍，超过了 2021 年创下的 60 倍历史峰值，且估值
⽔平已⾼于英伟达、台积电、博通和超微半导体。
On the surface, Intel is anything but cheap. Earnings, however, are depressed
—the company is expected to report 2026 earnings per share of roughly 50
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cents in 2026, down from almost $ in 2021. Intel’s gross profit margins
in 2025 were below 40%, while Taiwan Semi’s were 55% and Nvidia’s were
75%.
从表⾯上看，英特尔绝⾮廉价之选。然⽽，其盈利状况却不容乐观——预计该
公司 2026 年的每股收益约为 50 美分，较 2021 年的近 美元⼤幅下滑。
2025 年，英特尔的⽑利率低于 40%，⽽台积电和英伟达的⽑利率分别为 55%
和 75%。
There are reasons Intel’s margins are low. It’s paying its competitor Taiwan
Semi to make an estimated 30% of its wafers as it builds its own fab capacity
and invests in new products.
英特尔利润率较低是有原因的。在扩建⾃有晶圆⼚产能并投资新产品的过程
中，该公司正向竞争对⼿台积电⽀付费⽤，由后者代⼯⽣产其约 30%的晶圆。
Intel’s manufacturing yields—the ratio of functional chips to the maximum
possible—in its newest chip-making process are too low. Taiwan Semi’s yields
are estimated to be as high as 90%, while Intel’s are estimated at about 70%.
Improving yields isn’t a given, but as that process matures, there should be a
new stream of earnings and free cash flow.
英特尔最新芯⽚制造⼯艺的良率（即合格芯⽚与理论最⼤产量的⽐率）过低。
据估计，台积电的良率⾼达 90%，⽽英特尔的良率仅约 70%。提⾼良率并⾮
易事，但随着该⼯艺的成熟，应能带来新的收益和⾃由现⾦流。
“Lip-Bu is great,” says Molly Pieroni, president of Yacktman Asset
Management. “If anybody can pull this off, he can.”
“利普-布（Lip-Bu）⾮常出⾊，”雅克曼资产管理公司总裁莫莉·⽪耶罗尼表示，
“如果有⼈能做到这⼀点，那⼀定是他。”
Wall Street isn’t a believer. Earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have barely
budged, and only about a fifth of analysts covering it have a Buy rating on the
shares, well below the 55% for the average stock in the S&P 500. But analysts
are starting to come around. Reitzes, for one, upgraded shares to Buy in
January with a $75 price target, up 19% from recent levels, and others could
follow. “If agentic AI and the importance of the semiconductor domestic
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supply chain are just in the early innings, the stock will grow in and grow into
and surpass its valuation,” says Reitzes.
华尔街对此并不买账。2026 年和 2027 年的盈利预期⼏乎未⻅变化，且仅有约
五分之⼀的覆盖该股的分析师给予“买⼊”评级，远低于标普 500 指数成分股
55%的平均⽔平。 但分析师们开始转变态度。以雷茨斯为例，他于 1 ⽉将该股
评级上调⾄“买⼊”，⽬标价定为 75 美元，较近期⽔平⾼出 19%，其他分析师
可能也会跟进。“如果⾃主⼈⼯智能和半导体国内供应链的重要性才刚刚起
步，该股将持续增⻓，最终不仅能⽀撑其估值，甚⾄会超越当前估值，”雷茨斯
表示。
But even Reitzes’ target undersells what is possible. With a better product
lineup and normal profit margins, Intel could easily earn $7 a share by 2029.
At a typical semiconductor multiple of 22 times forward earnings, that would
support a $150 price for Intel stock in a couple of years. Meanwhile, investors
can look forward to rising earnings estimates and improving Wall Street
sentiment. And even after Intel’s recent run, the company is worth just $320
billion, less than AMD’s $415 billion, despite 50% more sales. Nvidia, Taiwan
Semi, and Broadcom are worth trillions. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Intel is
the only . chip maker—arguably an essential attribute due to security
concerns.
但即使雷茨（Reitzes）给出的⽬标价也低估了英特尔的潜⼒。凭借更出⾊的产
品阵容和正常的利润率，英特尔到 2029 年轻松实现每股 7 美元的盈利并⾮难
事。按照半导体⾏业典型的 22 倍前瞻市盈率计算，这意味着英特尔股价在⼏
年内有望达到 150 美元。 与此同时，投资者可以期待盈利预期的上调和华尔街
市场情绪的改善。即便在英特尔近期股价上涨之后，该公司的市值也仅为
3200 亿美元，低于 AMD 的 4150 亿美元，尽管其销售额⾼出 50%。英伟达、
台积电和博通的市值则已达数万亿美元。英特尔作为美国唯⼀的芯⽚制造商这
⼀事实⽆疑是其优势——鉴于安全考量，这或许是⾄关重要的属性。
For investors reluctant to go all in now, there’s always dollar-cost averaging—
buying a little now and adding additional stakes in the weeks ahead. That
way, if the stock keeps rising, at least they own some; if it drops, they can buy
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on the dip.
对于那些不愿现在就全仓投⼊的投资者来说，还有“定期定额投资法”——现在
买⼀点，然后在接下来的⼏周内继续加仓。这样⼀来，如果股价持续上涨，⾄
少他们已经持有了⼀部分；如果股价下跌，他们就可以逢低买⼊。
Just don’t miss it completely. The bet is that Intel can regain its place at the
semiconductor table—and the stock still has plenty of room to run.
千万别完全错过。市场普遍认为英特尔有望重回半导体⾏业的领先地位——⽽
且其股价仍有很⼤上涨空间。
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