ࣜ࠶࿐ 2010୍ֻ10௹ҍᆟᆟҦ֥٤ऺضථིႋ储德银 黄文正ଽಸิေ:本文梳理了20世纪80年代以来有关财政政策非凯恩斯效应的经典文献,试图探讨与总结其中一些趋势性a方向性的问题b在理论方面,财政政策通过消费和投资两种渠道发生非凯恩斯效应,是因为存在预期效应a财富效应和替代效应b在实证研究方面,财政调整时期的测度与定义是非凯恩斯效应研究的两大难题,迄今为止,在测度方法和定义标准等具体问题上未取得任何突破性进展或达成共识;另外,结构VAR文献主要是通过实证检验财政支出乘数的符号和大小来识别非凯恩斯效应b从经验研究的总体结果来看,支持投资非凯恩斯效应的文献似乎更多,因此,也被国外理论界认为是以后研究财政政策非凯恩斯效应最有可能取得突破的领域bܱՍ:财政政策 非凯恩斯效应 消费渠道 投资渠道 ሱ20ൗࡀ30୍սऺضථิԛႵིླܵ٤ཌྷஆԇ֥ቔႨ౻࣮֡ҍᆟᆟҦ֥٤ऺضථིંၛট,ҍᆟᆟҦᄝൗࢸ۲ݓ֥ޡܴࣜ࠶ਵთᇔႋ,ࠧཨٮ౻֡ބሧ౻֡bϲဆሢٳᇗေ֥ቔႨbູਔ႒ކࣜ࠶ᇛ௹ѯၛ(၂)ཨٮ౻֡ࠣົӻࢠ֥֮ാြੱඣ,ঔᅦྟҍᆟᆟҦᄝ20ൗᇗ൪ཨٮ౻֥࣮֡ᆀಪູᄝ၂ק่ࡱ༯,ҍࡀ80୍սԚ௹ၛభᇔ൞ൗࢸ۲ݓ֥൮࿊bᆟࣅ෪ᄹࡆದཨٮ൞ၹູᇕིႋ:ყ௹ིႋaҍ൞ঔᅦྟҍᆟԅሳᆟҦ֥Ӊ௹ൌྛ,၂ུݓࡅ૫ڶིႋބูսིႋbਢሢᇗ֥ᅏༀາࠏაऍح֥ҍᆟԅሳ,ၹՎ,ҍᆟ1.预期效应bԮऺضථᇶၬҍᆟᆟҦིႋ֥ࣅ෪ෛࠧӮູਔᆃུݓࡅ໗ܥҍᆟຸ֥၂ࣥbಖࢲં൞ڎӮ৫ᇶေ၇ঠၛ༯ਆ۱ࡌק่ࡱ:၂൞ࣜط၂ུݓࡅҍᆟಆ૫ࣅ෪ᆟҦ֥ൌീིݔӑԛਔऺ࠶сྶԩႿ٤ԉٳࣼြሑ;ؽ൞ࣜ࠶֒൙ದ֥ყضථᇶၬ֥ંყ௹bหљ൞֣ݓᄝ20ൗࡀ80୍௹൞҂ປಆྟ֥bၹՎ,ಌكྟყ௹֥ັܴࠎսު௹๙ݖࡨഒᆟک܄܋ᆦԛ,҂ࣇҍᆟሑঃૼཁԤ၂ᆰ൞ऺضථᇶၬҍᆟᆟҦ൳֞۾ࠌބᇉၐ֥ჰݺሇ,طߎൌགྷਔࣜ࠶֥໗קᄹӉbၹՎ,ҍᆟᆟၹbყ௹ིႋ֥Ӂള൞ၹູҍᆟࣅ෪ڿэਔཨٮᆀҦ֥٤ऺضථིႋႄఏਔંࢸ֥ࠞնܱᇿ,ѩႤ֥ყ௹,ᆃ҂ࣇุགྷᄝࡎ۬ඣყ௹ؓದ҆ྛགྷԛਔྸ؟ׅࣜ໓ངbԢਔ܄षӵಪ٤ऺضථູིथҦ֥႕ཙ,طߎุགྷᄝໃট൬ೆყ௹ؓದႋᄝଖུҍᆟൈ௹ಒൌթᄝᆭຓ,ᆃུ໓ངໃ౼֤҆ྛູथҦ֥႕ཙഈbყ௹ིႋಪູ؋௹ҍᆟᆟޅ၂ᇁྟ֥ࢲ,ંૌ္ิԛ,ೂݔ၂่ུࡱؿҦॖၛ๙ݖၩຓ֥ٚൔؓݓӁԛބದཨٮӁളളࠇ֤ၛડቀ,ҍᆟᆟҦაሹླၛࠣӁԛᆭࡗ֥ࠪೆིႋ,Ӊ௹ଽ္߶ၹყ௹֥ᇯ҄ྟطэ֤؋௹ᆞཌྷܱ֥ԮऺضථᇶၬࢲંႋჍၛྩᆞbིbҍᆟࣅ෪ିႵིࢆ֮ໃটඥڵэ֥҂ಒק၂aҍᆟᆟҦ٤ऺضථིႋ:ં໓ངඍྟ,ཨٮᆀࡨഒఃყٝྟԥྐྵ(Feldstien,1982)bؓႿໃট۷ࡆ఼ਛࠇമᇀߊྟ֥ҍᆟࣅ෪,๙ݖҍᆟࣅ෪Ӂളঔᅦིႋ֥ॖିྟ౼थႿದཨஆԢದ҆ໃটବඥ֥ླေࠇࢆ֮ᆃᇕླေ֥ӱٮބ/ࠇದሧؓࣅ෪ّ֥ႋିڎҀҍᆟࣅ෪؇,ᇁཨٮᆀॖᆦሹ൬ೆ֥ᅼགྷᆴᄹࡆ,ದཨؓሹླބӁԛ֥ᆰࢤڵིႋbၹູႵ০֥ყ௹ིٮ္ෛᆭᄹࡆbყ௹ིႋ҂ࣇ౼थႿҍᆟࣅ෪֥նႋିܔದ֥҆ॴ௹ԥྐྵ࿊ᄴؿളڿэ,ҍᆟཬބӻ࿃ൈࡗ֥Ӊ؋,طބყ௹֥ॖྐ؇ᆰࢤཌྷࣅ෪֥ڵ૫ིႋॖିФࡨഒࠇമᇀཨԢbЧ໓۴ऌܱbਸ਼ຓ,ყ௹ིႋ္ܴׄൡႨႿթᄝҍᆟࣅ෪ؓཌྷܱ໓ང֥൸,ؿགྷݓຓંࢸᇶေՖਆᇕѩ৯֥౦ྙ,ࠧ֒၂۱ݓࡅყෘԅሳބ/ࠇڵᅏᅝ 97
GDP֥б২ۚࠇॹᄹࡆൈ,նطӻ࿃֥ҍᆟטᆜݔᇶေ౼थႿ܄܋ҍᆟ֥Ԛ่ࡱbหљ൞ᄝҍᆟࡼ൞ሇݓࡅҍᆟሑঃຸ֥၂ٚم,ൈ,္іൕҍࣅ෪ᆭభ,ೂݔGDP֥ڵᅏੱӑݖਔ၂۱ཌྷؓࢠۚᆟ൝ࡼေؿളڿэb֥ਢࢸᆴൈ,০ੱིႋؿള֥ॖିྟ۷ۚb2.财富效应bҍڶིႋӁളႿದ҆ҍڶ֥2.劳动力市场效应bস৯൧ӆིႋ఼ט֥ᄹࡆ,طᆃᇕҍڶ֥ᄹࡆ൞ၹູ০ੱ༯ࢆ҂ࣇॖၛ൞,ၹস৯൧ӆིੱބࣜ࠶ሹุࣩᆚ৯ഈശطջᄹࡆದ҆ႚႵ֥ሧӁ൧ӆࡎᆴ,ߎᄹࡆਔದট֥ದሧᄹࡆbᄝ၂ק่ࡱ༯,ҍᆟࣅ෪๙ӈ҆ԥྐྵ֥ࠏ߶ӮЧbၹՎ,ҍڶིႋᇶေ౼थႿ߶۽߶֥۽ሧေൡ؇༯ࢆ(ࠇ๙ݖാြੱᄹࡆ,ҍᆟࣅ෪ა০ੱᆭࡗ֥৳༢,ࠧ০ੱؓҍᆟࣅ෪֥ࠇ๙ݖാြӮЧ֥ഈശ),ࡨഒఒြൌ࠽۽ሧᆦԛّႋӱ؇൞ڎૹۋbൈ,ૌ္ᇿၩ৯aՏࠗܦႛaሧބӁԛ֥ᄹӉb০ੱིႋ఼ט֒,֞ϴෛყ௹ིႋބҍڶིႋ,ҍᆟࣅ෪ؓཨٮթᄝᆰࢤڵིႋభҍᆟᆟҦӮٳ֥ቔႨ,ࡌഡҍᆟ໗ܥ֥ൌགྷ൞๙,طა֒భॖᆦ൬ೆ֥ࡨഒӱ؇ཌྷܱbၹՎݖ܄܋ᆦԛ֥ཤࡨ,ط҂൞ඥ൬֥ᄹࡆ,หљ൞ཤࡨ,ೂݔࣼႥࣲྟ൬ೆط,֒ᆞ֥ყ௹ބҍڶིႋն֞ᆟک֥۽ሧބڞ০ᆦԛ,Ֆط֝ᇁದሧ၂۱ࢠۚቀၛӑݖؓ֒భॖᆦ൬ೆ֥ᆰࢤڵིႋ,ҍᆟࣅ֥ᄹࡆbၹູᆃུᆦԛؓস৯൧ӆӁളᆰࢤ႕ཙ,෪ࣼ߶֝ᇁದཨٮ၂۱ሹ֥ႵིᄹࡆbႿ၂۱ఃཤࡨ๙ӈ߶֝ᇁস৯൧ӆࣉྛטᆜ,Їওࢆ֮ֆ۷֥ۚႥࣲྟ൬ೆބ၂۱ࢠ֥֮֒భ൬ೆᆭࡗڵཌྷ໊সӮЧaᄹࡆ০ބՏࠗሧbཁಖস৯൧ӆࢲܒᄝ࣮০ੱིႋൈఏ֞ਔᇗေ֥ቔႨb,ܱҍᆟࣅ෪ؓದཨٮ֥ቋᇔ႕ཙޓૼཁ౼थႿ҂ି๙ݖࢹվٚൔิభႨໃট൬ೆࡅ๖֥б২,ؽaҍᆟᆟҦ٤ऺضථིႋ:ൌᆣ໓ངඍࠧ෮໌֥ੀྟჿඏࡅ๖෮ᅝ֥бᇗb࣐ܵሱ20ൗࡀ80୍ս֥ު௹ၛট,࣮ҍᆟ3.替代效应bูսིႋބ܄܋ཨٮაದཨٮᆭࡗู֥սੱཌྷܱbೂݔཨٮᆀбࢠुᇗᆟک҆ᆟҦ֥٤ऺضථིႋა്љҍᆟࣅ෪ؓࣜ࠶ሹࠃิ܂֥၂ུ܄܋ڛༀঔᅦིႋ֥ൌᆣ໓ང҂؎Ⴄགྷbಖطఘࣂູᆸ,ᆃ,ைೂ࢝ტa၄ਏЌࡲa໓߄ࠇߌڛༀ,֩၂֊ᆃུڛༀ҂ᄜႮᆟکิ܂,ૌࡼུൌᆣ໓ངؓႿҍᆟԊࠌ֥؋௹ིႋ,หљ൞ҍᆟቋॖି߶ᄹࡆᆃུٚ૫֥ದཨٮᆦԛࣅ෪֥ঔᅦིႋ,ໃିิ܂ޅ၂ᇁྟ֥ࢲંࠇႵ(Giavazziི֥ᆣऌᆦӪbၛ༯ૌοᅶਆᇕٚمؓᆃུൌᆣandPagano,1990)b္ࣼ൞ඪ,ೂݔᆟکཨٮ൞ࡅ๖ཨٮ֥ሧჷჿඏ,GDPᇏФ܄܋҆ཨ߄ו֥၂໓ངࣉྛ߃ٳ:၂൞๙ݖޘࢩ૫ࠇ૫ϰඔऌଆ࣮ҍᆟטᆜൈ௹;ؽ൞ᄎႨൈࡗਙٳ༅م࣮ҍཬ҆ٳ൞ದ҆ཨٮঔᅦ֥ࠎԤbᆟᆦԛӰඔ,ᇶေ൞ᄎႨଖུऎุܿקࠇVAR֩(ؽ)ሧ౻֡ٚمࣉྛܙ࠹bሧ౻֡൞ႮႵིҍᆟ໗ܥႄఏದሧ఼࣑(၂)ҍᆟטᆜൈ௹ٳ༅:ྻ൙مބӻࣲᄹࡆᆃ၂ࡌඪቆӮbAlesinaetal.(1998)ಪᄝൌᆣ໓ངᇏ,૫ϰଆФܼٗႨႿหקҍᆟູঔᅦྟބࣅ෪ྟҍᆟ໗ܥᆭࡗ֥ᇗေҵၳᄝႿభטᆜൈ௹႕ཙ֥ܙ࠹bᆃུ໓ང૫ਢ܋֥ܱྟᆀದሧّ֥ႋ۷ࡆ఼࣑,ࠧದሧّ֥ႋֻ၂҄൞ҍᆟטᆜൈ௹Чദ֥߃ٳ໙ี,Їওҩ఼ၛᇀࣇࣇႵᇹႿࠪೆིႋ֥ؿള(Zaghini,؇ٚم(ࠧᆷѓ࿊ᄴ)ބೂޅקၬҍᆟൈ௹(ਢࢸᆴ2001)bದሧᆃᇕ఼ّ࣑֥ႋေહФླ০ੱ࿊ᄴބӻ࿃ൈࡗӉ؋)bིႋࢳ,ေહФ܂۳ٚ૫֥স৯൧ӆིႋ෮ࢳ൮,༵ҩ؇ٚم၂ϮҐႨࢲܒყෘჅح֥նཬbቔູ࿊Ⴈᆷѓ,طࢲܒყෘჅح൞ᆷᄝమᄝGDPط1.利率效应b০ੱིႋ္ФAlesinaetal.٤ൌ࠽GDPൈؿള֥bᆃᇕ࣮ٚمၹູေؓൌ(1998)ބAlesinaandArdagna(1998)ӫᆭູྐႨ࠽ყෘޙࣉྛᆞ,ՖطႨਔᇛ௹ྟטᆜყෘིႋ(credibilityeffect)b০ੱིႋ൞๙ݖൌ࠽০ੱޙ֥ۀbၹູࣜ࠶ࠃ֥ᇛ௹ྟྛູିܔ႕ཙ༯ࢆط႕ཙದሧ֥bၹູ֒ᆟکൌྛҍᆟࣅ෪܄܋ყෘ,ః҂൳ಃຯ֒अ֥॥ᇅbಖط,ؓႿ࠹ᆟҦൈ,၂ٚ૫ఃࢹᅏླࡨഒ,ൈߎॖၛࡨഒෘࢲܒყෘჅح,ൌ࠽ᇏѩીႵ၂Ϯ෮܋ಪॖ֥ᆟکິჿڄགҀӊ,Ֆط൧ӆൌ࠽০ੱ༯ࢆ,ಖٚمbᄝགྷႵ֥ҩ؇ٚمᆭᇏ,۷؟൞Ⴎ၂ུᇝ,ުൌ࠽০ੱ༯ࢆ๙ݖದሧՏࠗሹླbෙಖࠇݓ࠽ቆᆮ෮ิԛ֥,২ೂtheIMF(1993)atheᆃᇕ০ੱིႋିܔ఼߄మᄝ֥ࠪೆིႋ,൞ఃིOECD(1993)atheEuropeanCommission(1995)ބ 98
ࣜ࠶࿐ 2010୍ֻ10௹၂ུభခ֥ࣜ࠶࿐ࡅ(ೂBlanchard,1993)֩bંྟ֥ܴׄbఃՑ,ҍᆟטᆜൈ௹קၬթᄝਆ۱ٚ૫֥ٳఆb๙ݖؓႵܱ໓ང֥൸,ૌಪູᄝൈॉ੮၂൞ਢࢸᆴ֥ࢸקbଢభᇶေႵᇶܴ؎مބࡥֆ٤ऺضථིႋ֥ቔႨ౻֡ބ่ࡱൈ,ॖၛ֤֞ၛ༯࠹مਆᇕ,భᆀ൞ᆷቔᆀᇶܴಒק၂۱ᆴ,Ⴎׄࢲં:၂൞ದཨٮ֥٤ऺضථིႋbೂؿѩ҂ౢԣ,طުᆀ൞ᆷ๙ݖࡥֆ࠹ᆷѓग़ֹܴಒള,ᄵᇶေ౼थႿҍᆟᆟҦטᆜ֥նཬaӻ࿃ൈࡗӉק၂۱ਢࢸᆴ(Afonso,2001)bؽ൞ӻ࿃ൈࡗ֥Ӊ؋ބӮٳbؽ൞ሧ֥౺ིႋ҂ࣇაყ௹ིႋބ؋b၂Ϯᇀഒਆ,୍ೂݔ෮Ⴈਢࢸᆴࢠն,ᄵ္ॖ০ੱིႋႵ,ܱط൞๙ݖ႕ཙದ҆ሧྐྏ٢ॺᇀ၂୍bၹൌ࠽ᇏಌكં၇ऌބ၂ѓሙ,طؿള֥,ᇶေ౼थႿ܄܋ҍᆟ֥Ԛሑbਢࢸᆴބӻ࿃ൈࡗ֥࿊ᄴ๙ӈ൞ԛႿቔᆀ֥ᇶܴ൞ؓႿሧ֥܂۳౺ིႋটඪ,ҍᆟᆟҦטᆜ֥؎bӮٳၹරެ൞ቋᇗေ֥bሸഈਆٚ૫ؿགྷ,หקҍᆟטᆜൈ௹֥קၬބ്љ൞གྷႵ໓ང֥၂ն็ᅞbၹູҐႨ҂ٚم表1 财政支出乘数的实证结果,߶ྙӮҍᆟᆟҦ҂֥ሇᅼׄbᆃུ໓ང֥၂նቔᆀ/୍ٺဢЧࢲંี൞҂࣮ႮႿࡹ৫ᄝ҂ҍᆟൈ௹߃ٳ֥ࢲݔEdelbergetૅݓ:19481.ҍᆟᆦԛӰඔෙཬູᆞ;2.ҍᆟᆟҦؓཨٮބᆭഈal.(1999)-1996ंሧऎႵ٤ऺضථིႋ,҂֥ҩਈٚمބҍᆟטᆜൈ௹קၬ๙ӈ߶ྙӮ҂֥ࢲં,ၹՎ,ᆃུ໓ང൞ۚ؇ၳᇉྟ֥bFatasandૅݓ:1960MihovҍᆟӰඔູᆞնႿ1۴ऌؓགྷႵ໓ངࣉྛ֥൸,ؿགྷҍᆟᆟҦაದ-1996(2001)ཨٮࡗܱ༢ሹุഈѩໃྙӮ၂ᇁྟ֥ࢲંbෙಖBlanchardૅݓ:ؽᅞ1.ҍᆟᆦԛӰඔෙཬູᆞ;2.ҍᆟᆟҦؓሧऎandPerottiުႵ٤ऺضථིႋG(2002)iavazziandPagano(1996)aPerotti(1999)aGiavaz zietal.(2000)aAfonso(2006Burnsideetૅݓ:ؽᅞ1.ҍᆟᆦԛӰඔෙཬູᆞ;2.ҍᆟᆟҦؓሧऎ)ބCarmignani(2008)ؓದཨٮ֥٤ऺضථིႋิ܂ਔൌ࠽ᆣऌal.(2003)ުႵ٤ऺضථིႋ,HGalietal.ૅݓ:1954eylenandEveraert(2000)avonHagenetal.ҍᆟӰඔູᆞ,ఃࠇᆀࢤ࣍Ⴟ1,ࠇᆀնႿ1(2005)-2003(2001)aHjelm(2002)avanAarleandGarretsenૅݓaႇݓ୍ၛభ,ૅݓҍᆟӰඔູᆞնႿ1,ᄝ(2003)ބHogan(2004)֥࣮൞ીႵࢲં,֥ࠇമϏն০aఃჅݓࡅҍᆟӰඔູᆞطཬႿ1;୍ᆭު,ᇀّطᆦӻऺضථᇶၬ֥ܴׄbಖط,֒۷ࡆധೆҍᆟӰඔնږ؇ࡨ,ط֣Perotti֣ݓaࡆଦݓaႇݓބࡆଦնູڵ;୍ᆭު,ᄝ֣ݓaႇݓބࡆଦն,ҍᆟᆟֹ࣮ҍᆟᆟҦაሧࡗܱ༢ൈ, ದሧؓႵི(2005)ն:1960-ҦؓཨٮऎႵ٤ऺضථིႋ;4.Ԣૅݓࣇᄝ19801980;1980୍ᆭު,෮ႵݓࡅᄝဢЧൈ௹ଽ,ҍᆟᆟҦؓሧҍᆟ໗ܥऎႵնطӻࣲ֥ᆞཟّႋ ֥၂Ϯ࣮ܴ-2000ऎႵ٤ऺضථིႋૅݓ:.ҍᆟᆦԛӰඔෙཬູᆞ;୍ҍᆟӰඔ۷,ׄࣇ๙ݖࡥֆ֥ࠪೆིႋරެ္҂ቀၛᆣૼః൞-1979;ᆞಒ֥b(2006)ཬMcDermottandWesco1983-2004tt(1996)aGiudice1.ҍᆟᆟҦ֥Ӂԛིႋ౼थႿҍᆟ۽ऎ;2.ᆰࢤPereiraandetal.(2007)Ֆླ౺ིႋ,AlesinaandArdagna௮ฤ:ඥaࡗࢤඥa܄܋҆۽ሧᆦԛބ܄܋ሧऎႵऺSagales1977-2004ضථིႋ;3.ᆟکሇ၍ᆦڱބᆟک٤۽ሧཨٮऎႵ(2006)(1998)aAlesinaetal.(2002)aArdagna(2004)Ֆ܂٤ऺضථིႋ۳౺ིႋٳљิ܂ਔᆦӻሧ٤ऺضථིႋ֥ൌFaveroૅݓ1.ҍᆟᆟҦ֥Ӂԛིႋ౼थႿҍᆟ۽ऎ;2.ඥ൬,:1960࠽ᆣऌbandGiavazziหљ൞ࡗࢤඥऎႵऺضථིႋ3.܄܋ᆦԛ,หљ൞-2002(2007)֒భᆦԛ,ऎႵ٤ऺضථིႋਸ਼ຓ,൞࣮थקҍᆟࣅ෪ঔᅦིႋ֥ܱྟClayesૅݓ:19651.ҍᆟᆟҦؓದཨٮބӁԛऎႵ٤ऺضථིႋ;่ࡱb၂ϮಪູҍᆟᆟҦטᆜ֥Ӯٳ൞ቋᇗေ֥(2008)-20042.Ԛ่ࡱቋᇗေ(֥ۚᆟکᅏༀ),ࠧಪູ๙ݖཤࡨ܄܋ཨٮᆦԛ֥ҍᆟࣅ෪,หљ൞مݓa֣ݓaAfonsoand༆ϫބ௮1.ᄝمݓބ௮ฤ,ҍᆟᆟҦؓӁԛऎႵ٤ऺضථᆟک۽ሧބڞ০ᆦԛ֥ཤࡨ,၂Ϯ߶Ӂളࢠն֥٤Clayesฤིႋ;2.ᄝ֣ݓބ༆ϫ,ҍᆟᆟҦऎႵऺضථི:1970(2008)ႋऺضථིႋ-2004(AlesinaandPerotti,1995;AlesinaandCaldaraandૅݓ:1955Ardagn,1998;Alesinaetal.,2002;ArdagnaKampsҍᆟᆟҦؓཨٮބӁԛऎႵऺضථིႋ,-2006(2008)2004)bਸ਼၂۱ᇗေ่ࡱ൞܄܋ҍᆟ֥Ԛሑ,ऎDeCastroุა༆ϫ1.؋௹ҍᆟӰඔູᆞնႿ1;2.ҍᆟԊࠌնႿ4:GDP֥ԅሳੱၛࠣڵᅏੱᆰࢤႵܱ(McDeandDeCos୍ᆭު,ҍᆟӰඔູڵ;3.܄܋۽ሧᆦԛࣇᄝᆭުr 1980-2004(2008)֥2۱ࠇ3۱࠱؇ࡨഒӁԛaཨٮބሧmottandWescott,1996;Perotti,1999;Zaghini,Mountfordૅݓ1.ᆟکᆦԛӰඔ࣐ܵཬ,ູᆞ;2.ਆ୍ᆭުᆟک:1955andUhligᆦԛԊࠌӰඔູڵ;3.ؓሧऎႵ٤ऺضථིႋ;2001;Afonso,2006)bಖطҍᆟࣅ෪֥նཬބӻ࿃-2000(2008)4.ཨٮؓ.ҍᆟᆟҦّ֥ႋཬ,ཁᇷ҂֩ႿਬൈࡗӉ؋රެ္൞ޓᇗေ,֥൞ଢభಌഒ၂ུࢲ 99
(ؽ)ࢲܒVARٳ༅:ҍᆟᆦԛӰඔࡀ80୍սᇯࡶ༯ࢆ,ᆃඪૼᄝ20ൗࡀ90୍ս୍սა࣮ࠊлᆟҦིႋ֥໓ངཌྷ,ቋ࣍Ⴈҍᆟ໗ܥ֥ӮЧࡨഒ(VonHagenetal.,2002);ؽVARଆٳ༅ҍᆟᆟҦིႋ֥࣮ᄀটᄀ؟,໓ང൞Perotti(2005)ҩ֞ҍᆟᆦԛ֥ࠧ௹Ӱඔॖିቔᆀབྷ༥ᇅקބܙ࠹VARଆ൞ູਔ്љ၂ུᇶູڵ,หљ൞ᄝ၂ུᇝݓࡅ,ᆃაӁԛ֥٤ऺضථေ֥ޡܴࣜ࠶эਈؓҍᆟᆟҦԊࠌّ֥ႋbི࣐ႋ൞၂ᇁ֥bܵ۬ၩၬഈѩ٤ᆰࢤႨႿҍᆟᆟҦ٤ऺضථིႋֻ,ൌᆣဒࢲݔ֥ࢳb၂ٚ૫,Ֆ٢ྐ֥࣮,ൌ࠽ഈ๙ݖҩ҂ҍᆟӰඔ֥ژݼބႨჿඏބᄹࡆሧЧ൧ӆིੱაگᄖྟਆٚ૫ࢳൌնཬ,ᆃུ࣮ܙ࠹ѩ֤֞ਔҍᆟᆟҦ٤ऺضථིᆣ࣮ࢲંbၹູં൞٢ྐႨჿඏ,ߎ൞ᄹࡆႋ֥၂ུࢲંbሧЧ൧ӆིੱაگᄖྟॖၛຉॺದࣉೆሧЧ൧൮༵,০ႨVARٚم࣮ҍᆟᆟҦ๙ӈ൳ཋӆ֥౻,֡Ֆطࡨഒੀྟჿඏࡅ๖֥ඔਈބࢆ֮Ⴟҍᆟඔऌ֥֮ੱބ്љҍᆟԊࠌ֥b၂ٚཨٮؓ֒భॖᆦ൬ೆ֥၇ঠbՎຓ,ೂݔࣁವ൧૫,ҍᆟᆟҦՖؿ҃֞ൌീᆭࡗ๙ӈթᄝࢠӉ֥ӆ٢ܵᇅބࠊлᆟҦ֝ཟؿളڿэ,ൌྛ۷ࡆࠒൈᇌ,ದ҆ၹՎॖၛყ௹ҍᆟᆟҦԊࠌ֥э߄,ّ֥ࠞ๙ᅮᆟҦ,රެॖၛؓൌ࠽০ੱ۷఼ّ࣑֥Їওӻ࿃ൈࡗބॖ൪֥ყෘซbਸ਼၂ٚ૫,ҍᆟႋڵᄳ,ᆃ္ିࢳၛഈ࣮ࢲંbਸ਼၂ٚ૫,ሱэਈؓࣜ࠶ࠃ္թᄝ၂ᇕሱّႋ,ၹՎ,གྷႵ20ൗࡀ90୍սၛট,ᇝԢਔႏᄯҍᆟࣅ෪֥ჄVAR໓ངᇏิ܂ਔࠫᇕ്љҍᆟԊࠌ֥ٚمbऎંնߌᆭຓ,ᄝᆟᇍഈ္۷؟఼ֹט ઔථหތุᇶေႵඹᇕٚمࣜӈФႨ:၂൞־݂ഡקمห่ჿ ބ ໗קაᄹӉ܄ჿ ᇏႵܱҍᆟ໗ܥ֥႗(Sims,1980)bؽ൞ྻ൙مࠇྴэਈم(Rameyྟܿק,ၹՎ,ൌྛҍᆟ໗ܥ֥ླေᄝᇝေჹჹ఼andShapiro,1998)b൞Blanchard-QuahࢲܒႿૅݓ(VonHagenetal.,2002)bਸ਼ຓ,ᆃ္ᄹࡆVAR࣮م(BlanchardandPerotti,2002)bඹ൞ਔᇝದ҆ؓݖಀҍᆟᆟҦծീೂޅ႕ཙགྷᄝژݼჿඏ֥ࢲܒVAR࣮م(Uhlig,2005)bᆌؓაໃটҍᆟᆟҦ֥ၩ്,ᆃᆣૼਔᇝದ҆ؓVAR໓ང֥࣮ଢ֥,ؿགྷఃߎթᄝਸ਼ຓਆᇕಌրҍᆟԊࠌ֥ྛູ҂Ⴟૅݓದ҆ࡌഡ֥ᆞಒཊ:၂൞ೂૌᄝі1ᇏ෮ु֥֞,ն؟ඔ࣮൞ၛྟ,Ֆطᄝᇝ֝ᇁਔ၂۱۷֥֮ࠇമᇀ൞ڵ֥ҍૅݓඔऌູ২,طૅݓඔऌᄝྸ؟ٚ૫ѩ҂ऎႵսᆟӰඔbіྟ,ၹՎ,ૅݓؓҍᆟᆟҦّ֥ႋ҂ିսі၂Ϯ֥aሹุࡎაᅚຬOECDݓࡅ(Briotti,2005);ؽ൞০ႨVARٚمࣉྛ࣮๙ӈޭਔ҂ҍᆟᆟҦ۽ऎؓ܄܋ᅏༀ࣐ܵ໓ངᇏթᄝ၂ུીႵࢲંമᇀ؛֥ࢲඣّ֥ႋ(FaveroandGiavazzi,2007;Claeys,ં,๙ݖؓགྷႵ໓ང֥൸აሹࢲ,ૌಯಖᇀഒ2008)bॖၛ֤֞ၛ༯ඹׄࢲં:၂൞ҍᆟᆟҦაದཨٮఃՑ,ႨVAR࣮م֥໓ང๙ӈؿགྷࡨඥᆭࡗ֥ൌᆣܱ༢൞ଆ,֥ၹՎ,ࠎႿཨٮ౻֥֡ҍؓӁԛ֥႕ཙေնႿᆟکཤࡨᆦԛbൌ࠽ഈ,ھᇕᆟᆟҦ٤ऺضථིႋંරެޓࣉ၂҄bؽ໓ང၂Ϯ߶ܙ࠹ԛᆦԛིႋູᆞ,ᆦԛӰඔࢠཬ൞ҍᆟᆟҦބದሧᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢ಏරެཌྷؓૼ(ࠧҍᆟᆦԛӰඔཬႿ1,ѩӯ༯ࢆ൝),طඥ൬ಒ,ၹՎ,ҍᆟᆟҦ٤ऺضථིႋ֥ሧ౻֡රެ൞Ӱඔཌྷؓࢠնඥ൬Ԋࠌ֥ӻ࿃ൈࡗӉ(ࠧඥ൬Ӱં࣮֥၂่ڶႵӮݔᆭਫ਼b൞ൌᆣ࣮ૼཁඔሹ൞նႿ1)bෙಖҍᆟᆟҦაದཨٮᆭࡗܱᆦӻၛ༯ંܴ,ׄࠧҍᆟࣅ෪ঔᅦིႋթᄝ၂ུ༢֥ࢲંරެѩ҂ૼಒ(࣐ܵؽᆀᆭࡗᇶေູऺضॖҩ֥ᇗေथק่ࡱ:ҍᆟࣅ෪֥նཬބӻ࿃ൈථིႋ),܄܋ᆦԛؓದཨٮࢠ఼֥ڵིႋ๙ӈࡗӉ؋;܄܋ҍᆟ֥Ԛሑ(֥ۚGDPყෘԅሳ߶Фҩ֞b࣍টᄝႨVAR࣮م֥໓ངੱބڵᅏੱ);หљ൞ҍᆟᆟҦ֥Ӯٳၹ,ࠧ๙ݖᇏ,ଖᇕӱ؇ഈॖၛඪ൞֤֞ਔਆᇕྍ֥ࢲં:၂൞ᆦԛཤࡨ֝ᇁ٤ऺضථིႋ֥ॖିྟ۷նbඹ൞ҍPerotti(2005)aBilbiieetal.(2008)ބFaveroandᆟᆟҦ֥٤ऺضථིႋᄝᇝݓࡅбૅݓ۷ն,طGiavazzi(2007)ؿགྷҍᆟᆦԛӰඔ֥նཬᄝ20ൗᄝݖಀ20୍ӯᇯࡶᄹ఼൝b 100
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