2009쓪11퓂ꆡꆡ(뗚23뻭뗚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡNov1,200911웚ꆡꆡ)EastChinaEconomicManagement(,)ꇱ쪵컱ꆤ랽램ꆾDOIꆿ1013969/j1issn11007-5097120091111035탅죎ꆢ뢶쮰틢풸폫쮰쫕ퟱ듓ꆪꆪꆪ믹폚Probit쒣탍뗄쪵횤퇐뺿퇮뗃잰1,뫎뒺솪2(11붭컷닆뺭듳톧ꆡ펦폃뺭볃톧늩쪿뫳쇷뚯햾,붭컷ꆡ쓏닽ꆡ330013;21낲믕뺭볃맜샭톧풺ꆡ뷰죚쾵,낲믕ꆡ뫏럊ꆡ230059)[햪튪]컄헂틔릫훚볛횵맛뗷닩훐2000쓪ꆢ2005쓪쏀맺벰2000쓪쿣룛뗄쫽뻝캪믹뒡,닉폃OrderedProbit쒣탍럖컶쇋뢶쮰틢풸폫쓉쮰죋뛔헾뢮뗄탅죎횮볤뗄맘쾵벰웤ퟷ폃믺샭ꆣ뷡맻쿔쪾뢶쮰틢풸폫쓉쮰죋뛔헾뢮뗄탅죎횮볤듦퓚쿔훸뗄헽쿠맘맘쾵,컈붡탔볬퇩뷸튻늽뇭쏷헢킩뷡맻퓚늻춬쪱볤ꆢ늻춬뗘쟸놣돖컈뚨ꆣ[맘볼듊]뢶쮰틢풸;쮰쫕ퟱ듓;탅죎[훐춼럖샠뫅]F8101423ꆡꆡꆡ[컄쿗뇪횾싫]Aꆡꆡꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]1007ꆪ5097(2009)11ꆪ0153ꆪ04Confidence,WillingnesstoPayTaxesandTaxComplianceꆪꆪꆪEmpiricalStudybasedonProbitModelYANGD12e2qian,HEChun2lian(11MobilePostdoctoralCenterforAppliedEconomics,JiangxiUniversityofFinance&Economics,Nanchang,330013,China;21FinanceDepartment,AnhuiEconomicManagementInstitute,Hefei230059,China)Abstract:BaseddataonAmericaandHongkongintheworldvaluessurvey,:willingnesstopaytaxes;taxcompliance;confidenceꆡꆡ튻ꆢ틽ꆡ퇔캪117%,뛔풴폚맊틢탐캪쯹떼훂뗄쳓쮰뒦틔20%뗄쮰쫕ퟱ듓돌뛈퓚룷룶맺볒캪쪲쎴죧듋늻춬?쓉쮰랣뿮[3]ꆣ떫쫇쏀맺쫇튻룶쮰쫕ퟱ듓돌뛈뷏룟뗄맺볒,죋캪쪲쎴믡뢶쮰?뛔폚헢룶컊쳢톧헟쏇틑뺭뷸탐쇋듳2002ꆪ2003쓪웤뗘쿂뺭볃맦쒣햼GDP뗄뇈훘뷶캪솿뗄퇐뺿,헢킩퇐뺿뗄믹놾몬틥쫇쮰쫕늻ퟱ듓탐캪놻816%[4]ꆣ퓚죕놾,2003쓪,헫뛔룶죋쯹뗃쮰뗄쮰컱짳훆닃쯹췾짥[1]ꆣ웤훐ퟮ뻟듺뇭탔뗄쫇Allingham뫍볆싊캪1102%,헫뛔릫쮾쯹뗃쮰뗄쮰컱짳볆싊캪Sandmo퓚1972쓪믹폚랸ퟯ뺭볃톧뫍웚췻킧폃샭싛붨솢4121%,뛔폚벰쪱짪놨떫짪놨늻ퟣ뗄탐캪,죧맻헢훖뗄튻룶뺭볃톧쒣탍,룹뻝헢튻쒣탍쳓쮰뗄뿉쓜탔폫닩탐캪늢럇쓉쮰죋맊틢캪횮,놻쮰컱믺맘닩믱뫳,붫뒦믱뗄뿉쓜탔ꆢ돍랣뗄솦뛈횮볤듦퓚뢺쿠맘맘쾵[2]ꆣ떫틔짙짪놨쮰뿮10%믲15%뗄랣뿮;죧맻쫇쓉쮰죋맊틢쫇룸뚨쿖쪵훐뷏뗍뗄쮰컱짳볆싊폫돍랣솦뛈,틀뻝룃캪횮,붫뒦틔짙짪놨쮰뿮35%뗄랣뿮[5]ꆣ떫죕놾춬퇹쒣탍쳓쮰돌뛈펦룃뇈쪵볊쟩뿶퇏훘뗃뛠ꆣ쫇튻룶쮰쫕ퟱ듓돌뛈뷏룟뗄맺볒,2002ꆪ2003쓪,웤퓚쏀맺,1995쓪쏀맺뛔룶죋쓉쮰짪놨뇭뗄짳볆싊뗘쿂뺭볃맦쒣햼GDP뗄뇈훘뷶캪11%[3]ꆣ[쫕룥죕웚]2009ꆪ06ꆪ15[믹뷰쿮쒿]훐맺늩쪿뫳뿆톧믹뷰훺쿮쒿(20080441082)[ퟷ헟볲뷩]퇮뗃잰(1972ꆪ),쓐,뫾놱킢룐죋,뢱뷌쫚,쮶쪿짺떼쪦,늩쪿뫳,퇐뺿랽쿲:닆쮰샭싛폫헾닟;뫎뒺솪(1978ꆪ),얮,낲믕잱즽죋,붲쪦,쮶쪿,퇐뺿랽쿲:맺볊뷰죚,룶죋샭닆ꆣꆪ153ꆪ
평듋뾴살,뺭뗤뗄쮰쫕ퟱ듓샭싛늢늻쓜쇮죋싺틢떱뗄뮻ꆣ뾼싇떽룃컊쳢뗄놸톡듰낸4ꆫ10횮볤뗄닮뗘뷢쫍쿖쪵훐뗄쮰쫕ퟱ듓탐캪,폚쫇튻킩퇐뺿헟뾪쪼뇰뫜킡,쫜럃헟튲뫜쓑뛔웤ퟷ돶ힼ좷뗄쟸럖,퓚놾퇐틽죫뢶쮰틢풸쫔춼룼뫃뗘뷢쫍쮰쫕ퟱ듓탐캪ꆣGraetz,뺿훐붫4ꆫ10뫏늢돉4,뇭쪾웤뢶쮰틢풸벫뗍,웤뛔쳓W[6]ilde(1985)믹폚맺쓚쫕죫쫰쮰쫕ퟱ듓뛈솿볆뮮뗄쮰뗄죝죌뛈뷏룟ꆣ헢퇹튻살횵풽킡,쯹듺뇭뗄뢶쮰틢퇐뺿쿔쪾쒿잰뗄쮰쫕ퟱ듓돌뛈퓚쿠떱돌뛈짏펦맩폚릫풸쮮욽풽룟ꆣ쏱뛔릫쏱퓰죎뗄돐억ꆣ[7]Feld,Frey(2002),Torger횮쯹틔톡퓱쏀맺ꆢ쿣룛ퟷ캪퇐뺿퇹놾,쫇틲캪쯼[8](2004)뗄퇐뺿쿔쪾뢶쮰틢풸폫횱뷓쏱훷횮볤듦퓚쿔쏇튵틑붨솢웕뇩뗄룶죋쯹뗃쮰ퟔ탐짪놨훆뛈,뛸쟒룶훸뗄헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ좻뛸퓚웤퇐뺿훐붫튻킩짐캴좫쏦붨죋쯹뗃쮰퓚쮰쫕쳥쾵훐햼폐훘튪뗘캻,2008쓪,쏀맺솢룶죋쯹뗃쮰ퟔ탐짪놨뗄맺볒(죧훐맺ꆢ럆싉뇶)냼룶죋쯹뗃쮰햼쮰쫕쫕죫뗄뇈훘캪52%,춬쓪,쿣룛룶삨퓚웤퇐뺿퇹놾횮훐,헢폐뿉쓜쪹웤퇐뺿뷡싛닺짺쾵죋쯹뗃쮰햼쮰쫕쫕죫뗄뇈훘캪18%ꆣ틲뛸,쫜럃헟뛔춳탔욫닮ꆣ퇮뗃잰[9](2008)뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷튻맺뗄쮰쫕ퟱ룃컊쳢뗄믘듰룼쓜랴펳뢶쮰틢풸뗄듳킡ꆣ듓돌뛈폫룃맺뻓쏱뗄뢶쮰틢풸횮볤듦퓚헽쿠맘뗄맘쾵,(뛾)샭싛볙짨뢯냜탐캪붫퇏훘쯰몦릫쏱뗄뢶쮰틢풸,쯦ퟅ퇏훘랸ퟯN[10]orth(1981)랢햹쇋튻룶맺볒탂맅뗤샭싛,웤뗄퓶볓,릫쏱뗄뢶쮰틢풸튲쯦횮쿂붵ꆣ떫횱뷓쏱훷ꆢ뫋탄쫇죏캪춳훎헟볈슢뛏놩솦폖슢뛏릫릲럾컱뗄릩룸,뢯냜벰퇏훘랸ퟯ늢늻쓜뷢쫍뢶쮰틢풸뗄좫늿ꆣ뛸쟒돤떱튻룶뻟폐웧쫓탔뗄슢뛏헟뗄뷇즫ꆣ춳훎헟춬뛾ꆢ쫽뻝살풴폫샭싛볙짨폫톡쏱횮볤쫇튻훖뎤웚뗄웵풼맘쾵,춳훎헟폃놣뮤뫍(튻)쫽뻝살풴헽틥살붻뮻쫕틦ꆣ평폚쳡릩헢킩럾컱폐맦쒣뺭볃,쓇놾퇐뺿쯹닉폃뗄쫽뻝풴폚릫훚볛횵맛뗷닩훐2005쎴뷏횮폚짧믡짏쎿룶죋놣뮤ퟔ벺뗄닆닺뛸퇔,폐ퟩ횯쓪ꆢ2000쓪맘폚쏀맺뗄쫽뻝벰2005쓪맘폚쿣룛뗄쫽뻝ꆣ쏅살듓쫂헢킩믮뚯쓜캪짧믡듸살룼듳뗄쫕죫ꆣ캪쇋릫훚볛횵맛뗷닩(WorldValuesSurvey)춨맽퓚쫀쪹헢룶웵풼뗃틔캬돖,훮죧붱샸폫돍랣횮샠뗄벤샸탨뷧랶캧쫕벯죋쏇뗄볛횵맛뫍탅쓮뗄뇤뮯틔랴펳짧믡ꆢ튪놻쳡릩,떫뎬풽붻틗뗄탅죎폫쟩룐솪쾵튲뇘탫놻뾼컄뮯틔벰헾훎뗈훮뛠랽쏦뗄룄뇤ꆣ웤늻뚨웚뗘퓚40룶싇[9],탅죎폫쟩룐솪쾵쫇뢶쮰틢풸뗄뫋탄ꆣ틔짏뗄맺볒훐뷸탐,쒿잰틑뺭뷸탐쇋5듎,룃뗷닩퓚죧맻춳훎헟쓜틔쫊떱뗄볛룱쳡릩쇮톡쏱싺틢뗄릫쎿룶퇹놾맺볒훐춨맽쏦뛔쏦뗄랽쪽퓚놻뗷닩헟볒훐훁릲욷뫍럾컱,쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄췆틆,톡쏱믡뛔탐헾믺릹닺짙닉럃1000룶틔짏뗄놻뗷닩헟ꆣ퓚릫훚볛횵맛뗷닩훐짺잿쇒뗄탅죎,뷸뛸톡쏱쳓쮰뗄탄샭돉놾믡퓶볓,듓폫뢶쮰틢풸쏜쟐쿠맘뗄튻룶컊쳢쫇쳓쮰퓚뛠듳돌뛈짏뛸뛴훆쳓쮰ꆣ랴횮,톡쏱쳓쮰뗄탄샭돉놾믡복짙,짵캪릫쏱쯹뷓쫜ꆣ뻟쳥컊쳢쫇죧맻폐믺믡뻍쳓쮰,뛔폚훁믡붫쳓쮰쫓캪랴뾹헾뢮샄폃쮰쫕쫕죫뗄튻훖폐킧랽헢훖탐캪쓣퓚뛠듳돌뛈짏뿉틔뷓쫜?놸톡듰낸캪1ꆫ쪽,듓뛸퓶볓쳓쮰ꆣ10,웤훐1뇭쪾췪좫늻쓜뷓쫜,10뇭쪾췪좫쓜뷓쫜,2릫훚볛횵맛뗷닩훐폫뛔헾뢮믺릹뗄탅죎뗄튻룶쿠ꆫ9뇭쪾뷩폚췪좫늻쓜뷓쫜폫췪좫쓜뷓쫜횮볤ꆣ릫훚볛맘컊쳢쫇,쟫룦쯟컒쓣퓚뛠듳돌뛈짏탅죎헾뢮믺릹횵맛뗷닩캪컒쏇뛈솿뢶쮰틢풸쳡릩쇋튻룶뛀쳘뗄쫓뷇,(1ꆢ럇뎣탅죎,2ꆢ탅죎,3ꆢ늻첫탅죎,4ꆢ룹놾늻탅쯼쪹컒쏇쓜릻붫뢶쮰틢풸ퟷ캪튻룶틲뇤솿뷸탐럖컶ꆣ죎),횵풽킡,뇭쪾톡쏱뛔헾뢮믺릹뗄탅죎돌뛈풽룟ꆣ횮쯹틔톡퓱헢퇹튻룶뷇뛈살뛈솿뢶쮰틢풸,풭틲놾컄붫볬퇩틔쿂볙짨ꆣ퓚폚폃헢퇹튻룶볲떥뗄컊쳢살뇭쪾뢶쮰틢풸쮮욽뻟폐볙짨:톡쏱폺쫇탅죎탐헾믺릹,뢶쮰틢풸폺룟ꆣ틔쿂폅뗣ꆣ쫗쿈,쯼뿉틔뇜쏢릹붨뢶쮰틢풸횸쫽쯹듸죽ꆢ쪵횤볬퇩살뗄뢴퓓탔벰릹돉뢶쮰틢풸횸쫽뗄룷쿮쒿횮볤뗄쿠맘(튻)쏨쫶탔춳볆탔뗈컊쳢;웤듎,릫훚볛횵맛뗷닩뗄쪵쪩퓚룷룶맺볒퓚뷸탐헽쪽뗄럖컶횮잰,쿈뛔뢶쮰틢풸폫죋뿚쳘뻹평튻킩좨췾믺릹살뷸탐,쟒폐튻쳗퇏룱뗄듫쪩살놣헷뷸탐쏨쫶탔춳볆럖컶ꆣ뷡맻놨룦볻뇭1ꆢ뇭2ꆣ횤뗷닩뗄훊솿,틲뛸뗷닩뷡맻뻟폐쿠떱뗄뿉뾿탔;ퟮ뇭1뗚2탐쇐돶쇋ꆰ죏캪쳓쮰쫇췪좫늻쓜뷓쫜ꆱ뫳,릫훚볛횵맛뗷닩뗄쓚죝냼삨뺭볃ꆢ짧믡ꆢ헾훎ꆢ뗄쫜럃헟,풼60%ퟳ폒뗄쫜럃헟죏캪쳓쮰쫇췪좫늻쓜ퟚ뷌뗈훮뛠랽쏦,뛸늻쫇튻룶쏅헫뛔쳓쮰뗄뗷닩,뷓쫜뗄ꆣ듓뢶쮰틢풸뗄욽뻹횵살뾴,쏀맺2005쓪쓉쮰퓚뗷닩훐쯼컊뗄쫇쫜럃헟뛔쳓쮰뗄뾴램,뛸늻쫇튻룶죋뗄뢶쮰틢풸룟폚웤2000쓪뗄뢶쮰틢풸,쏀맺2005쓪쏅헫뛔쳓쮰뗄뗷닩,쫜럃헟퓚믘듰쪱펦룃쿠뛔뇈뷏뗄뢶쮰틢풸룟폚쿣룛2005쓪뗄뢶쮰틢풸ꆣ뇭2뗚3탐뿍맛ꆣ쇐돶쇋쏀맺ꆢ쿣룛쫜럃헟뗄뛔헾뢮탅죎돌뛈뗄욽뻹횵,퓚놾퇐뺿훐폃웤듺뇭튻룶맺볒릫쏱뢶쮰틢풸쮮욽,웤횵퓚21416ꆫ21688횮볤,헢뇭쏷뻍욽뻹뛸퇔,쫜럃캪쇋럖컶컊쳢뗄랽뇣,컒쏇붫놸톡듰낸1ꆫ10뷸탐쫊헟뛔헾뢮뒦폚늻첫탅죎폫탅죎횮볤ꆣ틔쿂붫폃Orderedꆪ154ꆪ
Probit쒣탍뷸튻늽볬퇩컒쏇쳡돶뗄볙짨ꆣ쪱볤,늻춬뗄뗘쟸쫇럱놣돖컈뚨ꆣ폚2000쓪뷸탐쏀맺(뛾)OrderedProbit쒣탍볬퇩뗚쯄듎릫훚볛횵맛뗷닩캪컒쏇볬퇩쪱볤컈뚨탔쳡릩쇋놾컄붫놻럃컊헟뗄뢶쮰틢풸럖캪4훖늻춬뗄벶뇰,뿉쓜,퓚뷢쫍뇤솿훐볓죫뇭쪾쪱볤뗄탩쓢뇤솿D1,뻟웤쪵훊쫇튻룶업탲톡퓱컊쳢,틲뛸퓚듋닉폃Ordered쳥뗘쮵,죴D1캪0,뇭쪾룃듎뗷닩폚2000쓪뷸탐;죴Probit쒣탍살럖컶쓉쮰죋뛔헾뢮믺릹뗄탅죎폫웤뢶쮰틢D1캪1,뇭쪾룃듎뗷닩폚2005쓪뷸탐ꆣ퓚듋붫릫훚볛풸뗄맘쾵[11]ꆣ횵맛뗷닩훐쏀맺2000쓪뫍2005쓪뗄쫽뻝뫏늢,닉폃춬볙뚨뢶쮰틢풸뗄듳킡폫죋뿚쳘헷횮볤듦퓚죧쿂맘쾵:퇹뗄랽램뷸탐orderedprobit쒣탍볬퇩,뷡맻볻뇭4ꆣy^=ꛁ+ꛂx+u(1)ttt뇭12005쓪쏀맺ꆢ쿣룛벰2000쓪웤훐,y뇭쪾쫜럃헟뢶쮰틢풸뗄듳킡,x뇭쪾쫜럃쿣룛뢶쮰틢풸뗄쏨쫶탔춳볆헟뛔헾뢮믺릹뗄탅죎돌뛈,u뇭쪾닐닮ꆣt퓚OrderedProbit쒣탍럖컶훐,쾵쫽벰럻뫅횻쓜뇭2005쓪2005쓪2000쏀맺쿣룛쏀맺쪾뷢쫍뇤솿뛔놻뷢쫍뇤솿펰쿬뗄랽쿲,뛸늻쓜뇭쪾웤펰쿬뗄듳킡[12]ꆣ캪쇋뷸튻늽쮵쏷뷢쫍뇤솿펰쿬뗄듳킡죏캪쳓쮰쫇췪좫늻쓜,뷓쫜뗄뇈샽661676110063125(%)춨뎣뮹탨맀볆뷢쫍뇤솿뛔놻뷢쫍뇤솿뇟볊펰쿬뗄듳킡ꆣ퓚틔쿂뗄럖컶훐,뷶볆쯣뷢쫍뇤솿뛔ퟮ룟뢶쮰틢풸뗄죏캪쳓쮰쫇췪좫뿉틔뇟볊펰쿬ꆣ뷓쫜뗄뇈샽141911513118171(%)샻폃뢶쮰틢풸뗄욽뻹횵116991181411813Eviews510뷸탐OrderedProbit럖컶,훷튪뷡맻놨룦퓚뇭3훐ꆣ듓훐뿉틔뾴돶퇹놾쫽114012081181Probability(LRstat)풶킡폚쿔훸탔쮮욽0101,X뗄Z춳볆횵뗄룅싊킡폚0101,틲뛸뿉틔죏캪떱쿔훸탔쮮욽캪1%쪱,탅죎뛔놻뇭22005쓪쏀맺ꆢ쿣룛벰2000쓪쿣룛뛔뷢쫍뇤솿뻹퓬돉쇋쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ듓뷢쫍뇤솿뗄럻뫅살뾴헾뢮뗄탅죎뗄쏨쫶탔춳볆,X뗄쾵쫽캪헽ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ탅죎폫뢶쮰틢풸횮볤듦퓚쿔훸2005쓪2005쓪2000뗄헽쿠맘맘쾵,쓉쮰죋뗄뢶쮰틢풸쯦ퟅ웤뛔헾뢮믺릹뗄탅쏀맺쿣룛쏀맺죎돌뛈뗄쿂붵뛸쿂붵ꆣ듓웤뇟볊펰쿬뗄듳킡살뾴,쓉쮰죋ퟮ듳횵4ꆡꆡ4ꆡꆡ4ꆡꆡ뛔헾뢮믺릹뗄탅죎돌뛈쎿쿂붵1룶떥캻,웤뢶쮰틢풸쯦횮ퟮ킡횵1ꆡꆡ1ꆡꆡ1ꆡꆡ쿂붵01089ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵,컒쏇쳡돶뗄볙짨돉솢ꆣ욽뻹횵216872141621688쯄ꆢ컈붡탔볬퇩뷓쿂살뗄튻룶컊쳢쫇,컒쏇뗃돶뗄뷡싛퓚늻춬뗄뇪ힼ닮0175016501828뇭3쏀맺2005쓪뢶쮰틢풸뗄OrderedProbit쒣탍맀볆뷡맻뷢쫍뇤솿쾵쫽뇪ힼ닮Z춳볆횵쮫닠룅싊뇟볊킧펦Xꆡꆡ0133344101051816310100001089퇹놾죝솿1140Schwarzcriterion11930AIC뇪ힼ11913Hannan-Quinncriterion11919Loglikelihood-11241916Avg1loglikelihood-01952LRstatistic(7df)771233LRindex(Pseudo-R2)01034Probability(LRstat)01000ꆡꆡ힢3:뇭쪾퓚10%뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸33,뇭쪾퓚5%뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸333,뇭쪾퓚1%뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸ꆣ뇭4쏀맺2005ꆢ2000쓪뢶쮰틢풸뗄OrderedProbit쒣탍맀볆뷡맻뷢쫍뇤솿쾵쫽뇪ힼ닮Z춳볆횵쮫닠룅싊뇟볊킧펦Xꆡ0133323401033711590100001078D3331-0112101051-2136301018-01040퇹놾죝솿2321Schwarzcriterion21016AIC뇪ힼ21004Hannan-Quinncriterion21008Loglikelihood-23201435Avg1loglikelihood-01999LRstatistic(7df)561817LRindex(Pseudo-R2)01012Probability(LRstat)01000ꆡꆡ힢3:뇭쪾퓚310%뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸33,뇭쪾퓚5%뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸33,뇭쪾퓚1%뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸ꆣ닎헕ퟩ캪2000쓪ꆣꆪ155ꆪ
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