ᄉ ގaൽ ჭ:ҍᆟٳಃaሇߐ༢ඔაࣜ࠶ᄹӉҍᆟٳಃaሇߐ༢ඔაࣜ࠶ᄹӉ*云 鹤舒 元 (ᆄࡾ۽ն࿐ࣜસაܵ࿐ჽ 310013)(ᇏն࿐ଲ࿐ჽ 510275) ଽಸิေ:在古典增长模式和内生增长模式下,以往文献多是注重规模因素和供给层面对经济增长的决定作用b事实上,结构因素a需求层面和调控层面对经济增长的决定作用越来越居于主导地位b基于此,本文通过引入转换系数这个概念,构建了一个集规模因素与结构因素a供求力量与调控力量于一体的集成型经济增长模型;通过模型的模拟得出经济体系中的转换系数在现阶段对经济增速的影响最为显著;进而指出企业家是推动经济增长的中坚力量b另外,作为案例,本文综合计量和模拟等数学工具,就SARS对经济的冲击与政府抗击疫情和挽救市场进行了模拟bܱՍ:财政分权 转换系数 经济增长 SARS冲击ؓᆟکҍᆟᆟҦ֥࣮,၇ऌ࣮ҕᅶ༢֥҂,Ⴕਆ۱࣮ٚ૫:၂൞οᅶBarro(1990)۳ԛ֥ଽളᄹӉॿࡏ,ؽ൞οᅶArrow-Kurz(1970)aChamley(1985)֩۳ԛ֥ܞׅᄹӉॿࡏbᄝᆃਆ۱ॿࡏ༯,Oates(1993)aDavoodiބZou(1998)aBird(1993)aZou(1996)aGong(2002,2003)֩ฐ࣮ਔ؟ࠩᆟک܄܋षᆦ֥ᄹӉིႋ,ฐษਔ۲ᇕඥ൬aሇ၍ᆦڱ֥ᄹӉིႋbಖط,ᆃུ໓ང؟൞ؓᆟکҍᆟ֥ܿଆၹቓбࢠٳ֥࣮;ఃՑ,ࣼࣜ࠶ᇶุ֥ܱ༢ط,ᆃུ໓ངીႵԉٳॉ੮֞؟ࠩᆟکᆭࡗ֥ၳ҄Ѱᒮ֥ൌࣟ;ࣼࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥۲ᇕ৯ჷಅط,ᆃུ໓ངીႵር༥ᆈљଧུჷಅ൞ܱ֥bЧ໓ᆌؓᆃུ౦ঃ,ࡹ৫ਔ၂۱ࠢࢲܒၹ)ܿଆၹaླҪ૫)܂۳Ҫ૫)ט॥Ҫ૫Ⴟ၂ุ֥ࠢӮࣜ࠶ᄹӉଆ,ھଆ္ԉٳॉ੮֞ਔ۲ࣜ࠶ᇶุၳ҄Ѱᒮ֥ൌࣟ,ѩᆷԛఒြࡅؓࣜ࠶ุ༢ᇏ֥ሇߐ༢ඔ֥ླྀטࠃ൞ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ܱྟ৯ჷಅbЧ໓֥ྛ໓νஆ൞:൮༵ࢳ༅ਔҍᆟٳಃބሇߐ༢ඔ֥ଽݤ;ಖުࡹ৫ਔ၂۱ࠢӮ֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉଆ;ѩቓਔھଆ֥бࢠ࣡ٳ༅,ᆷԛሇߐ༢ඔؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ྟᆴ൞ቋູԛ֥;ቋ,ު၇ऌھଆଆਔSARSԊࠌ෮Ӂള֥႕ཙ,֤ԛਔᆟکॆၦࣷ൧ঘᄹӉჿ1%֥ࢲݔb၂aܱႿҍᆟٳಃބሇߐ༢ඔ(၂)ҍᆟٳಃࣼҍᆟٳಃط,ૌ֥ҍᆟุᇅࣜਔ࠹߃୍ս֥/նݑٖ0aڿ۪ᄪ௹/֥նЇۄ0ၛࠣ1994୍ၛট/֥ཬٳಃ0֩ྙൔb࠹߃ࣜ࠶୍ս֥ն၂ҍᆟᄎቔٚൔ,ၝᇅਔֹٚᆟکᄹࡆҍᆟ൬ೆ֥ࠒࠞྟbູਔࢳथࠗৣ໙,ีҍᆟ҆ᄝ1977୍ႄೆਔҍᆟЇۄᇅ؇bᆃ۱ᇅ؇ᄝ1980୍Фಆ૫,ܼѩ౼֤ਔӮۿ,Ќᅰਔᇏနᆟک֥ҍᆟ൬,ೆ္ᄹࡆਔֹٚҍᆟ֥൬ೆbಖط,ෛሢ٤ݓႵࣜ࠶֥ؿᅚބݓႵࣜ࠶႔০ି৯֥༯ࢆ,ᇶေ၇ঠႿݓႵࣜ࠶֥ᆟکҍᆟ൬ೆэ֤࡛ఏটbطֹٚᆟکሹ൞୭৯ܿхഈ࢚۳ᇏနᆟک֥൬ೆሹحbૌϜڮඥ൬ೆՖყෘଽሇ֞ყෘຓ,ߎ๙ݖקࡨ૧ඥॻބܝৣฦඥॻ֩ᇕᇕ൭؍টോaࢩᇏန֥ڮඥbᆃဢ၂ট,ֆՂඥڵඣၛࠣᇏနҍᆟ* ቔᆀۋ྆େബ۠ದؓ໓ᅣԚ۠෮ิԛ֥Џၩބࡹၰ,֒ಖ໓ᄳሱڵb40
2005୍ֻ6௹൬ೆაֹٚҍᆟ൬ೆ֥б২ӯ༯ࢆ൝bࠎႿՎᇕअ૫,1994୍षൌྛ֥ҍᆟٳุࠩܵᇅ,ᇗྍࢸקਔᇏနᆟکaֹٚᆟکᆭࡗ֥ҍಃބ൙ಃٓຶ,ሢငׄ൞མሇֆՂඥڵඣބᇏနҍᆟбᇗ֥༯ࢆ൝,ၛᄹ఼ᇏနᆟک֥ޡܴט॥ି৯ބᄜٳି৯b1994୍֥ҍᆟڿ,۪൞ݓҍᆟᇅ؇ࡹഡൎഈ֥၂۱ᇗေӱЗbაః൧ӆࣜ࠶ݓࡅཌྷб,ૌ/֥ҍಃ0ބ/൙ಃ0֥߃ٳཁಖ൞҂Ӟָބ҂ປ֥bՖ൙ಃ߃ٳট,ुఃᄎྛٚཟᆞݺაҍಃᄎྛٚཟཌྷ,ّࠧࠎЧ൙ಃႵҪҪ༯၍֥൝b൬აᆦ֥ᇗຂࢫ,ሩളਔ/൬ٮ0֥նබഹ,ྛطᄀ൞ࠎҪᆟکᄀ൞ೂՎb(ؽ)ሇߐ༢ඔ11ሇߐ༢ඔ֥थקགྷϜࣜ࠶ุ༢ᇏ֥ളӁ҆߃ٳູളӁሧ֥҆ބളӁཨٮ֥҆bሇߐ༢ඔࣼ൞ᆷཨٮބሧᆭࡗ֥ሇߐбᆴ,ࠧ֒ࣜ࠶ᇶุࢫസ༯၂ჭఫ֥ཨٮൈ,ुुॖၛሇߐູ؟ഒჭఫ֥ሧbֻ၂,ሇߐ༢ඔ൳ᇅႿࣁವ൧ӆ֥ᄎྛིੱbԮ֥ሧЧࠒٚӱࡌקཨٮބሧॖၛ၂б၂ֹཌྷሇߐ,ཁಖᆃ൞ޓ҂གྷൌ֥b൙ൌഈ,ཨٮބሧᆭࡗ֥ሇߐݖӱ൞၂۱ޓӉ֥৽(่২ೂ,ཨٮࡨഒyԥྐྵyᇏࢺࠏܒyವሧyሧᄹࡆ)bᄝᆃ۱৽่ഈ,ሩളሢնਈ֥Їওྐ༏ӮЧᄝଽ֥ࢌၞӮЧࠇླྀטӮЧ,෮ၛࢫസ༯၂ჭఫ֥ཨٮѩ҂ିсಖֹሇߐູ၂ჭఫ֥ሧbֻؽ,ሇߐ༢ඔߎ൳ᇅႿࣜ࠶҆ᆭࡗ֥ࢲܒሑঃb၂Ϯ֥ڞ০ݦඔᆺ൞ܱႿཨٮC֥ݦඔ(ࠧU=U(C)),ॉ੮֞ቆᆮ(หљ൞ݓࡅ)֥ླު,ࣼॖࡌഡࣜ࠶ᇶุܱႿሧაཨٮ֥ڞ০ݦඔ(ऎႵଽྟ)ࠣࣜ࠶ุ༢ᇏሧაཨٮᆭࡗ֥ሇߐݦඔ(ऎႵຓ)ྟٳљູ¹:U=U(I,C)(1)T=T(I,C)(2) طш࠽ሇߐੱބш࠽ูսੱٳљູ:MRT=dIPdC5T5T=-5C5(3)IMRS=dIPdC5U5U=-5C(4)5I ֒ࣜ࠶ղ֞नޙൈ,Ⴕ:MRT=-PCPPI=-p=MRS(5) ఃᇏp൞ཨٮཌྷؓႿሧ֥ࡎ۬бᆴbᄝ࠻ק֥ጋڮࢲܒބളӁඌ༯,ࣜ࠶ุ༢֥ളӁॖିཌࠇሇߐݦඔ(PPF)ၛࠣ႕ሰࡎ۬бᆴº(p0)ೂ1෮ൕbࡌקڞ০ݦඔЇওਔቆᆮؓሧ֥ᆰࢤླ,ᆃࡼ౷൧ӆ֥קࡎྛ,ູՖط֝ᇁਔൌ࠽ࡎ۬бᆴp1֥ԛགྷ,ொਔ႕ሰࡎ۬бᆴp0bᆃဢ,҂֥p1थקਔ҂Ⴟഠ߶ቋႪᇂׄE0֥ྍᇂׄE»1,ط҂֥ᇂׄE1ؓႋሢ҂֥ш࠽ሇߐੱMRT1ބࡎ۬бᆴp1bਸ਼ຓ,ೂݔఒြ҂ିൌགྷປಆ֥ࠗৣིੱ,ପ¹ھڞ০ݦඔّ႘ਔࣜ࠶ᇶุؓႿሧބཨٮ֥؟࢘؇ࡎbՖઆࠠॢࡗ࢘؇টु,ࣜ࠶ᇶุؓഅ֥ླॖၛՙֹٳູ۱ದླބቆᆮ(ఒြaݓࡅ֩)ླ;Ֆઆࠠൈࡗ࢘؇টु,ࣜ࠶ᇶุؓഅ֥ླႵ֒௹ླބჹ௹ླᆭٳbᆃဢ,۱ದؓഅ֥֒௹ླіགྷູؓཨٮ֥ࡎ,۱ದؓഅ֥ჹ௹ླіགྷູؓሧ֥ࡗࢤࡎ,ቆᆮؓഅ֥֒௹ླіགྷູؓሧ֥ᆰࢤࡎbᆃဢ,ڞ০ݦඔࣼЇݣਔ۱ದؓཨٮ֥ࡎa۱ದؓሧ֥ࡗࢤࡎބቆᆮؓሧ֥ᆰࢤࡎb২ೂ,Ⴊ༵ؿᅚᇗ۽ြ֥ࣜ࠶ؿᅚᅞุࣼགྷਔቆᆮ(ఒြaݓࡅ֩)ؓሧऎႵࢠᇗ֥ᆰࢤࡎbਸ਼ຓ,ᆃ֥ሇߐݦඔႅݣਔࣜ࠶ุ༢֥ࠗৣིੱ,၂Ϯط൞ཟຓ֥(ၩሢш࠽ሇߐੱ֥धؓᆴ־ᄹࠇш࠽ࠏ߶ӮЧ־ᄹ)bºࠧഠ߶ቋႪࡎ۬бᆴ,൞ࠎႿ҂Їওቆᆮؓሧᆰࢤླ֥ڞ০ݦඔVطট֥b»ׄE1ಯᄝཌPPFഈ,ඪૼఒြಯಖൌགྷਔປಆ֥ࠗৣིੱb41
ᄉ ގaൽ ჭ:ҍᆟٳಃaሇߐ༢ඔაࣜ࠶ᄹӉહളӁॖିཌPPFࣼေڿэྙሑࠇ໊ᇂ,ՎൈᇂׄE1ԩ్֥ཌོ(ੱࠧш࠽ሇߐ)ੱࡼ߶ؿളэ߄bႮՎॖ,ሧაཨٮᆭࡗ֥ሇߐ༢ඔߎ൳ᇅႿളӁ҆ᆭࡗ֥ࢲܒሑঃ:ఒြ֥ࠗৣིੱ(PPF)ၛࠣ൧ӆ֥קࡎི(ੱp1)bֻ,ሇߐ༢ඔߎ൳ᇅႿᆟک֥҂ඥڵࢲܒbؓሧ֥ᆘඥӱ؇҂Ⴟؓཨٮ֥ᆘඥӱ؇ࡼ֝ᇁ҂֥ൌ࠽ࡎ۬бᆴp1,ࣉطӁള҂֥ᇂׄE1,္ࣼؓႋሢ҂֥ш࠽ሇߐੱbႮՎॖ,ཨٮაሧᆭࡗ֥ሇߐ༢ඔथקႿᆟک֥ඥڵࢲܒaఒြ֥ࠗৣིੱa൧ӆ֥קࡎིੱၛࠣࣁವ൧ӆ֥ᄎྛིੱ֩ၹb21ሇߐ༢ඔ֥ܒӮႮႿఒြ֥ࠗৣིੱथקሢളӁॖିཌ(PPF)ѩ൧ӆ֥קࡎིੱथקሢൌ࠽ࡎ۬ཌ(p1),෮ၛࣜ࠶֥ቋᇔᇂׄ(E1)थקႿPPFაp1్֥ׄԩbط҂֥ᇂׄႵሢ҂֥ш࠽ሇߐ,ੱࣉطཌྷؓႿഠ߶ቋႪׄႵ҂֥ሇߐ༢ඔbૌקၬӁ֥ሇߐ໊൝ູpMRTp0MR,ھሇߐ໊൝T0थקႿఒြ֥ࠗৣིੱބ൧ӆ֥קࡎིੱbਸ਼ຓϜၹ൧ӆaఒြaᆟک֩ླྀטྟቆᆮ֥ᄎྛིੱ(ࠧ۲ᇕଉ҈)҂֝ᇁሇߐ༢ඔ҂ི֥ႋӫູሇߐݻbᆃဢ၂ট,ሇߐ༢ඔࣼ౼थႿཌྷႋ֥ሇߐ໊൝఼֥ၛࠣሇߐݻ֥նཬਔb၂Ϯඪট,ႮႿླྀטӮЧࠇࢌၞӮЧ(Їݣྐ༏ӮЧ)ሹ൞թᄝ֥,෮ၛሇߐݻູᆞᆴ(ཌྷ֒Ⴟ/Ѣིႋ0)bਸ਼၂ٚ૫,֒ࣜ࠶ุ༢ൌགྷਔປಆ֥ࠗৣིੱބקࡎིੱ(ປಆ֥ᇂི)ੱު,ᆃൈ֥ሇߐ໊൝֩Ⴟ1;ط֒ࣜ࠶ุ༢҂ିൌགྷປಆ֥ᇂིੱൈ,ሇߐ໊൝֥ᆴॖିնႿ1ࠇཬႿ1,္Ⴕॖିె֩Ⴟ1bఃൕၩೂ2෮ൕbሇߐݦඔT0іൕൌགྷਔປಆࠗৣིੱ֥ളӁॖିཌ,TcіൕીႵൌགྷປಆིੱ֥Ӂሇߐཌ;ႮVބT0थק֥E0(్)ׄіൕഠ߶֥ቋႪᇂ,ׄᄝE0ԩ֥ሇߐ໊൝ູ1,طᄝE1ׄބEcׄԩ֥ሇߐ໊൝ࣼ҂၂ק֩Ⴟ1b12 ࠎႿၛഈනམ,ૌॖၛࡹ৫ܱႿሇߐ༢ඔބҍᆟٳಃ֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉଆbؽaҍᆟٳಃaሇ߄༢ඔ֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉଆ(၂)ࣜ࠶૭ඍ11ंྛູૌϜंࢳູࠢཨٮᆀაളӁᆀႿ၂ദ֥ࣜ࠶ᇶุbቔູཨٮᆀ,ंི֥Ⴈݦඔקၬᄝದཨٮඣބ܄܋ཨٮඣഈbದཨٮ֥ളӁބ܄܋ཨٮ֥ളӁ൞ႮቔູളӁᆀ֥࢘ंᆰࢤളӁ֥,܄܋ཨٮ֥ิ܂ᆀಏ൞ᇏနᆟکb¹ਸ਼ຓ,ದཨٮ֥ളӁބิ܂¹ೂᆟکҐܓྛູ෮ࢣൕ֥:ᆟکԛఫটิ܂,ఒြԛ৯টളӁb42
2005୍ֻ6௹൞ႮंሱദটӵքbቔູളӁᆀ֥ं,֥ӁԛݦඔࡥֆֹקၬᄝದሧЧࠒބ܄܋ሧЧࠒഈbं֥ყෘჿඏіགྷᄝϜॖᆦ൬ೆٳ۩ູದཨٮބದሧഈb21ᇏနᆟکྛູᇏနᆟکི֥Ⴈݦඔࡌקაंི֥Ⴈݦඔ൞ཌྷ֥,ࠧᇏနᆟکԉ/֒ഠ߶ڞ০ᆀ0֥࢘bطᇏနᆟک֥ყෘჿඏ൞Ϝᇏနᆟک֥ҍᆟ൬ೆٳ۩ູᇏန܄܋ሧЧࠒ֥ิ܂აᇏန܄܋ཨٮ֥ิ܂bਸ਼ຓ,ࡌקᇏနᆟکႵಃϜܿٓྟ֥ҍᆟ൬ೆᄝބֹٚᆟکᆭࡗቓԛб২߃ٳট,ࠧ൞ඪ,ҍᆟٳಃ֥ಃ৯ႚႵᆀ൞ᇏနᆟکb҂ݖֹٚᆟکಏႵϷم౼֤٤ܿٓྟ֥൬ೆ,طᆃུ٤ܿٓྟ൬ೆ൞ᇏနᆟکၛࠇ҂ିቅᆸ֥bᆃඪૼ,٤ܿٓྟ൬ೆ൞ߧࠇޑ൬ೆb҂ݖ,ܱႿᆃٚ૫֥ྐ༏ᇏနᆟکՖઆࠠഈࢃ൞ॖၛҩ,֥ࠧᇏနᆟکॖֹ֤֞ٚᆟکّ֥ႋݦඔb31ֹٚᆟکྛֹູٚᆟکॖၛႵሱ֥࠭ႵᙣႿ/ഠ߶ڞ০0ི֥Ⴈݦඔ,Վݦඔקၬᄝֹٚᆟک֥ሱཨٮඣഈbֹٚᆟک֥ሱཨٮ࠻Їওᆞӈ֥ᆟکᄎቔٮႨ;္ЇওິМഠ߶܄ၬ֥۲ᇕ҂сေ֥ݖ؇/֥ᄝᆯཨٮ0ࠇᆀ/ྙའཨٮ0,ᇭೂ܄ॻӹݿa܄ॻ੪Ⴓa܄ॻທুၛࠣഖԃ֥۽ቔߌa۲ᇕྙའ۽ӱ֩֩bֹٚᆟک֥ყෘჿඏ൞Ϝሱ࠭ൌ࠽౼֤֥൬ೆٳ۩ֹູٚ܄܋ሧЧࠒބሱཨٮඣᆃਆ҆ٳb¹ႮՎॖ,ૌࡌק֥ᇏနᆟکऎႵ܄܋ྟᇉ,طֹٚᆟکᄵऎႵሱྟᇉbཌྷႋ,ֹᇏနᆟک൞܄܋ྟҍᆟ,طֹٚҍᆟ൞ݓࡅྟҍᆟbᆃဢ֥ࡌקژކҍᆟ֥ਆ૫:ྟ܄܋ྟބݓࡅྟbᆺ҂ݖᇏနᆟکԉ֒ਔ܄܋࢘,ֹٚᆟکԉ֒ਔݓࡅ࢘b(ؽ)ࣜ࠶ᄎྛ11ႮႿंބᇏနᆟکི֥Ⴈݦඔ൞၂ᇁ,֥෮ၛॖϜؽᆀކѩູ၂۱ࣜ࠶ᇶุbૌ܋֥ଢѓ൞:]maxQHlncexp(-Qt)dt(6)0 ఃᇏcіൕದཨٮა܄܋ཨٮᆭބ,HlncіൕටൈིႨݦඔ,QູൈࡗொݺੱbႮႿཨٮބሧᆭࡗ֥ሇߐ༢ඔ౼थႿሇߐ໊൝ބሇߐݻ,طሇߐݻّ႘ሢླྀטྟቆᆮ֥۲ᇕᄎྛིੱ,ࡌקᆃུᄎྛིੱູӈඔ,ᄵሇߐ༢ඔࣇ౼थႿሇߐ໊൝఼֥bࡌקሇߐݦඔT=aT(I,C)=ICbº,ᄵCܱႿI֥ൌ࠽ш࠽ሇߐੱބൌ࠽ш࠽ูսੱູ:MR5T5TaCTC,I=MRdCSC,I==-=-(7)dI5I5CbI ॉ੮֞ࣜ࠶ԩႿቋႪሑൈ֥႕ሰࡎ۬бᆴ൞҂э,֥ପહሇߐ༢ඔࣼᆺ౼थႿൌ࠽ш࠽ሇߐੱਔbਸ਼ຓ,ࡆഈᆟک֥ඥڵࢲܒིႋ,ૌॖ֤֞Їݣҍᆟིႋ֥ሇߐ༢ඔbᆃဢंބᇏနᆟک෮૫ਢ֥܋ყෘჿඏބളӁݦඔٳљॖഡູ:Û1ckp=L(y-tey-c)(8)kpABy=kpks(9) ൔ(8)࠻іൕंބᇏနᆟک૫ਢ֥܋ყෘჿඏ,္ุགྷਔंބᇏနᆟک֥ሧЧࠒݖӱ;ൔ(9)൞ᆜ۱ࣜ࠶ุ༢֥Ӂԛٚӱbఃᇏkp൞ंބᇏနᆟک۲ሱࠒ֥ሧЧᆭބ;ks൞ֹ¹๙ݖҍᆟٳಃ෮֤֥ܿٓྟ൬ೆࡆഈሱ࠭൬౼֥٤ܿٓྟ൬ೆbºॉ੮֞ሇߐݦඔ֥ຓྟ(ࠧш࠽ሇߐੱ֥धؓᆴ־ᄹ),ॖၛഡa>1b>1,ᆃ္іૼӁ(ཨٮࠇሧ)֥ш࠽ࠏ߶ӮЧ൞־ᄹ֥b43
ᄉ ގaൽ ჭ:ҍᆟٳಃaሇߐ༢ඔაࣜ࠶ᄹӉٚᆟکࠒ֥ሧЧ;tіൕᇏနᆟک၇م۳Ⴭֹٚᆟک֥ඥੱඣ¹;eᄵіൕֹٚᆟکሱ౼֤֥٤ܿٓྟ൬ೆ֥୭৯ӱ؇bº֒҂ॉ੮۲ᇕሇߐݻൈ1c,Lࣼॖၛіൕཨٮაሧᆭࡗ֥ሇߐ༢ඔ;ႨcPkpট࣍රkpֹսูഈ໓֥֝CܱႿI֥ൌ࠽ш࠽ሇߐ,ੱّ႘ሢཨٮაሧᆭࡗ֥ࢲܒሑঃ;LіൕंሧཌྷؓႿंཨٮ֥ඥੱඣ(ଽݣႨcPkp࣍රֹսูCܱႿI֥ൌ࠽ш࠽ሇߐੱൈ෮ླေ֥טᆜၹሰ),ّ႘ਔᆟک֥ඥ൬ᆟҦᇏ֥ඥڵࢲܒሑঃb21ؓႿֹٚᆟکط,ఃଢѓ൞:]mRaxlnsexp(-Qt)dt(10)s,e,kQ0es ఃᇏsіൕֹٚᆟک֥ሱཨٮඣRR;lnsіൕටൈིႨݦඔ,Їݣਔֹٚᆟک֥ᆘ൬ܿeeٓྟࠇ٤ܿٓྟॻཛ୭৯֥ӮЧ;Qіൕൈࡗொݺੱbဢֹ,ֹٚᆟک֥ყෘჿඏࠇሧЧࠒݖӱॖഡູ:Û1sks=E(tey-s)(11)ks ఃᇏks൞ֹٚᆟکࠒ֥ሧЧ;ဢֹ1s,Eіൕֹٚཨٮაֹٚሧᆭࡗ֥ሇߐ༢ඔks(҂ॉ੮۲ᇕሇߐݻ);ഈ໓֥࣍රഡק,sPksّ႘ሢֹٚሧაֹٚཨٮᆭࡗ֥ࢲܒሑঃ;EіൕֹٚሧཌྷؓႿֹٚཨٮ֥ඥੱඣ(ଽݣႨsPks࣍රֹսูCܱႿI֥ൌ࠽ш࠽ሇߐੱൈ෮ླေ֥טᆜၹሰ),ّ႘ਔᆟک֥ඥڵࢲܒሑঃb31ႮႿֹٚᆟک҂ܵ൞ഥԛؠᆭ൭,ߎ൞ഥԛჱᇹᆭ൭,ܱႿᆃٚ૫֥ྐ༏ᇏနᆟکՖઆࠠഈࢃ൞ॖၛҩ֥,ࠧᇏနᆟکॖֹ֤֞ٚᆟکّ֥ႋݦඔ,ॖᆃ൞၂۱ंaᇏနᆟکაֹٚᆟکࣉྛ֥ؽࢨ؍(ၳ)҄ൈэ()֥ѰᒮbॖၛႨཟ݂ବمࢳᆭb෮ၛ,ֹٚᆟک֥ܿ߃໙ี൞ᄝൔ(11)aൔ(8)ބൔ(9)֥ჿඏ༯๙ݖ࿊ᄴ॥ᇅэਈsބeၛࠣሑэਈksটቋն߄ൔ(10)bᆃ۱ݖӱФӫֹູٚᆟک֥ྟݖӱbंބᇏနᆟک֥ܿ߃໙ีᄵ൞ᄝഈඍֹ֥ٚᆟکྟၛࠣൔ(8)aൔ(9)֥ჿඏ༯টቋն߄ሱ֥࠭ଢѓൔ(6),ᆃࣼ൞ंބᇏနᆟک֥ྟݖӱb()ଆࢳ11ࡹ৫ֹٚᆟکܿ߃໙ี֥Hamiltonݦඔ,ሇߐ༢ඔsE=NބcksL=F,Ⴕ:kpHs=exp(-QRt)lns+KsN(tey-s)+KpF(y-tey-c)(12)s,e,kes ၇ࠞնᆴჰ֤ቋႪ่ࡱaᆞᄵٚӱೂ༯:R-2KsN=0(13)es(KsN-KpFR)ty-2lns=0(14)eKAB-2s(B-1)E-1teskpks+KpBL-1A-1B-1(1-te)ckpks-Q+ÛKs=0(15)¹ࠧҍᆟٳಃุᇅᇏֹٚᆟک֤֥֞ܿٓྟ൬ೆაݓ൬ೆ֥бᆴbº֒e=1ൈ,ֹٚᆟکીႵ٤ܿٓྟ൬ೆ;֒e>1ൈ,ᄵႵ٤ܿٓྟ൬ೆ;֒e<1ൈ,іൕֹٚᆟکીႵᆘ൬ܔمק֥ඥ൬ඣbၹՎ,ૌӫ֒e>1ൈ,ֹٚᆟکഥԛਔ/ؠ0ᆭ൭;֒e<1ൈ,ֹٚᆟکഥԛਔ/ჱᇹ0ᆭ൭b44
2005୍ֻ6௹E-1-1ABsks(tekpks-s)-Ûks=0(16) ᆜഈ૫ඹ۱ൔሰ,ֹ֤֞ٚᆟک֥ሱཨٮބᆘඥ୭৯ٚӱ:Ûe2Ûs+=BNAB-1kpks-EN2Q2Reks+2B1lns-1+1(17)este 21ࡹ৫ंބᇏနᆟک֥৳ކܿ߃໙ี֥Hamiltonݦඔ,Ⴕ:Hp=exp(-Qt){Hlnc+K1F(y-tey-c)c,t,kp+K2[BNAB-1-1-1kpks-EN2[2QR-1eks+2Blns(te-1)+1]}(18) ဢ၇ࠞնᆴჰԛᆞᄵٚӱބ၂ࢨ่ࡱ:H-K1F=0(19)c-1-22K2BEN2B(lns)et-K1FAekpks=0(20)K1L-1(AA-2B1-1)c(1-te)kpks+K2ABNA-1B-kpks-Q+ÛK1=0(21)FAB[(1-te)kpks-c]-Ûkp=0(22) ᆜഈ૫ඹ۱ൔሰ,֤ं֥ದཨٮٚӱ:2Ûc=LH-1F21B2A2B-1(Qkp-H)+AFA-(1-te)kpks+A(EN-1)(F2te)kpksPlns(23)c 31ࣜ࠶ุ༢֥ޙᄹӉਫ਼ࣥࡌקࣜ࠶ԩႿޙᄹӉਫ਼ࣥ,ᄵֹٚᆟک֥୭৯эੱÛePe=0,طंཨٮඣ֥ᄹӉੱaंሧЧࠒ֤ᄹӉੱaֹٚᆟکཨٮඣ֥ᄹӉੱބֹٚᆟکሧЧࠒ֥ᄹӉੱཌྷ,֩࠺ູ܋ᄹӉੱC,ࠧÛcPc=ÛkpPkp=ÛsPs=ÛksPks=C ᆃဢ,๙ݖ৳৫ൔ(23)aൔ(22)aൔ(17)ބൔ(16),ૌࣼॖၛᅳ֞܋ᄹӉੱCა۲ҕඔ(NaFaEaLaRaHaQaAaB)a۲эਈ(catasaeakpaks)ᆭࡗ֥ႅݦඔܱ༢bЧ໓ܒࡹ֥ᆃ۱Ⴊ߄໙ี൞ཌྷ֒گᄖ֥,Їݣਔ؟۱ཌྷళส֥॥ᇅэਈބሑэਈ,ؓᆃဢ֥Ⴊ߄ଆࣉྛࢳࠎЧഈ൞҂ॖି֥b҂ݖ,ૌߎ൞ॖၛӇ൫၂༯ؓޙᄹӉਫ਼֥ࣥႅݦඔൔ֥ࢳ,ѩޭཌྷ໊֥ٳ༅bՖൔ(16)ॖၛ֤ԛֹٚᆟکཨٮඣs֥іղൔ:Eteys=E+C(24) Ϝൔ(24)սೆൔ(17)ބൔ(23)ᇏ,ಖުކѩൔ(17)ބൔ(23),ॖၛ֤֞܋ᄹӉੱCܱႿ۲ҕඔa۲эਈ֥ႅݦඔܱ༢:y4C=-EN2+BNy+AF(1-te)-2QER-1N2ekskskp+LH-1F2(Qkp-H)-2BEN21-teEteylnteE+Ctey+A(F2tey)P(ENEkslnE+C)(25) ᄝഈൔᇏીႵԛགྷंཨٮэਈcބᆟکཨٮэਈs,ఃൌᆃਆ۱эਈٳљᄏݣᄝंބᇏနᆟک֥ሇߐ༢ඔ(F)ބֹٚᆟک֥ሇߐ༢ඔ(N)ᇏbॖ,ં൞ࣜ࠶ᇏ֥ླҪ૫(cas),ߎ൞܂۳Ҫ૫(kpaks)ၛࠣޡܴט॥Ҫ૫(taeaLaE)߶ؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱӁള႕ཙ;طᆃᇕ႕ཙ࠻Ⴕᆰࢤིႋ,ႻႵࡗࢤིႋ,ఃሸކིႋສສ൞/٤ཌྟ0֥,ᆃॖି֝ᇁࣜ࠶ᄹӉਫ਼֥ࣥ҂ಒקྟ,ࣉط45
ᄉ ގaൽ ჭ:ҍᆟٳಃaሇߐ༢ඔაࣜ࠶ᄹӉ߶Ӂളگᄖ֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉਫ਼ࣥbॉ੮֞ൔ(25)ݖႿگᄖ,ૌᆺݺႨඔᆴଆ֥Ϸمটॉҳҍᆟٳಃ(tae)aඥڵࢲܒ(LaE)aሇߐ༢ඔ(FaN)֩۲ᇕҕඔაࣜ࠶ᄹӉ(ੱC)ᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢,ࠧቓཌྷႋ֥бࢠ࣡ٳ༅baଆ֥бࢠ࣡ٳ༅Чࢫૌቓࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱCܱႿҍᆟٳಃ(Ⴈtaeіൕ)aඥڵࢲܒ(ႮLaEটّ႘)ၛࠣሇߐ༢ඔ(ႨFaNটіൕ)֥֩бࢠ࣡ٳ༅b11ҍᆟٳಃ֥ᄹӉིႋૌ൮༵࿊౼ҕඔ֥ᆴ:H=R=015,Q=0108,A=0117,B=0134,N=017,F=017,L=0144,E=0124bఃՑ,ႵyPks=1122,yPkp=0161,C=010873,t=011,e=2¹,ࣉطॖಒקy=210316bᆃུԚᆴ൞۴ऌᇏݓଢభ֥ൌ࠽౦ঃطק:֥ο1990୍҂эࡎ۬࠹ෘ,2002୍ݓ֥ݓଽളӁሹᆴ(GDP)նჿູ5117ຣၡჭ,௹֥ᆟکሧЧࠒնჿ൞4124ຣၡჭ,ࡗሧЧࠒᄵູ8148ຣၡჭbᆞ൞ႮႿҍᆟٳಃ(Ⴈtᆴնཬটޙਈ)აֹٚᆟک୭৯ඣ(Ⴈeᆴնཬটޙਈ)ᆭࡗّ֥бܱ༢,ૌࡌקte=012Ӯ৫֥౦ঃ༯,টुt౼҂֥ᆴൈ,ཌྷႋ֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱCႵᄸဢ֥э൝bࣜݖ࠹ෘ,Cაtae֥ܱ༢ೂ༯і෮ൕ:表1财政分权的比较静态效应C010873010917010953010989011018011054011067t011011101120113011401150116e2118211671154114311331125 ॖ,Ⴎҍᆟٳಃ෮Ӂള֥ࢲܒིႋߎ൞бࢠૼཁ֥b֒t=011э֞t=0116ൈ,ࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱ(ࠧসनӁԛᄹӉੱ)ᄵႮ010873ഈശ֞011067,ࠧഈശਔնჿ22%bᆃ၂ׄॖၛᆣૼݓࣉྛ/֥ٮڿඥ0ᆟҦႵఃࠒ֥ࠞࢲܒྟᄹӉၩၬb෮໌/ٮڿඥ0ൌᇉ൞۳ᆟک֥٤ܿٓྟ൬ೆᆞ,ᆃဢॖࡨഒၹֹٚᆟک֥ؠᆭ൭෮ᄯӮ֥ᄹӉാb෮ၛૌႵଁี1bଁี1:ࣉྛҍᆟٳಃൔ֥ࢲܒྟڿ۪ॖၛӁളࢠૼཁ֥ᄹӉིႋ;ࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱܱႿҍᆟٳಃ֥ྟնჿູ0143b21ඥڵࢲܒ֥ᄹӉིႋඥڵࢲܒ֥ݣၬ൞ᆷሧཌྷؓႿཨٮ֥ඥੱඣ,္ࠧሧЧཌྷؓႿཨٮ֥ඥੱඣbՖሇߐ༢ඔNsc=EބF=ܒsPksބcPkpཌྷؓбࢠ໗ק,ᄵඥڵࢲܒEބL֥эksL֤ᆩ,҆ࢲkpࡼ֝ᇁሇߐ༢ඔNބF֥эbൈ,ඥڵࢲܒEބL֥э္Ⴕఃሱദ֥ᆰࢤᄹӉིႋbᄝ҆ࢲܒЌӻ҂э֥౦ঃ༯,ᆟکᆟҦᇏ֥ඥڵࢲܒэაসनࣜ࠶ᄹӉ؇Ⴕၛ༯קਈ֥ܱ༢:表2税负结构的比较静态效应(地方政府)C010873010864010854010844010833010822010809E0124012301220121012001190118表3税负结构的比较静态效应(居民和中央政府)C010873010879010885010891010896010902010908L0144014301420141014001390138¹ؓႿֹٚᆟکط,ೂݔ۳Ⴭ֥مקඥੱݖ֮,ఃࡼҐ౼/ඥ҂ቀaٮটҀ0֥Ҧ,ࢲݔഥԛ֥൞ؠᆭ൭;ೂݔ۳Ⴭ֥مקඥੱࢠູކൡ,ఃࡼ٢ମᇀ౼ཨ/൬ٮ0ྛູbႮႿ၇مᆘඥ෮ڱԛ֥୭৯ေб٤م൬ٮڱԛ֥୭৯ބڄགေཬ֤؟,෮ၛૌॖࡼ၇مᆘඥ֥୭৯ӮЧѓሙ߄ູ1,طࡼֹٚᆟک֥୭৯ӮЧקၬູᆟکඥٮሹ൬ೆაᆘඥ൬ೆбᆴ֥ݦඔ൞ކ֥b46
2005୍ֻ6௹ Ⴎഈіॖᆩ,ࡆᇗֹؓٚᆟکሧज़ඥ֥ቓم߶ิۚসनӁԛᄹӉੱ;طࡆᇗؓंބᇏနᆟک֥ሧज़ඥ֥ईծࡼ߶ࢆ֮সनӁԛᄹӉੱbᆃඪૼᄝֹٚᆟکषᆦᇏ,ؓఃሧषᆦᆘ൬ݖᇗ֥ඥڵൈ,ॖၝᆸఃཌྷؓݖਈ֥ሧЧࠒ,ࣉطิۚসनӁԛᄹӉੱbᄝंބᇏနᆟک֥षᆦᇏ,ؓఃሧཛଢᆘ൬ཌྷؓႿఃཨٮཛଢطࢠᇗ֥ඥڵൈ,ࡼ߶ࢆ֮সनӁԛᄹӉੱbඪૼࡗሧЧࠒߎԩႿཌྷؓ҂ቀbଁี2:ࡨंބᇏနᆟکሧषᆦ֥ཌྷؓඥڵ,ࠇࡆᇗֹٚᆟکሧषᆦ֥ཌྷؓඥڵ,߶Ⴕ০ႿসनӁԛᄹӉੱ֥ഈശ,ఃྟնჿູ0127b31ሇߐ༢ඔ֥ᄹӉིႋሇߐ༢ඔ൞ᆷሧაཨٮᆭࡗཌྷሇ߄֥ൌ࠽б,ੱ၇ऌဢ֥ٚൔቓԛሇߐ༢ඔFaN֥ᄹӉིႋଆᆴೂ༯і෮ൕb表4转化系数F的比较静态效应C010873010864010855010846010837010828010819F0170017101720173017401750176表5转化系数N的比较静态效应C010873010901010929010958010988011018011048N0170017101720173017401750176 ॖ,সनӁԛᄹӉੱCܱႿሇߐ༢ඔF൞ࡨݦඔܱ༢,ܱႿሇߐ༢ඔN൞ᄹݦඔ֥ܱ༢bࠎႿሇߐ༢ඔ֥ܒӮ,ॖၛ֤ᆩࡗ֥ཨٮളӁ҆ཌྷؓఃሧളӁ҆طԩႿݖਈሑ,ࠇᆀࡗሧཌྷؓఃཨٮ֥ඥڵඣԩႿбࢠ֥ሑ;طᆟک֥ཨٮളӁ҆ཌྷؓఃሧളӁ҆طᄵԩႿ҂ቀሑ,ࠇᆀᆟکሧཌྷؓఃཨٮ֥ඥڵඣԩႿбࢠᇗ֥ሑbଁี3:সनӁԛᄹӉੱCܱႿሇߐ༢ඔF൞ࡨݦඔܱ༢,ܱႿሇߐ༢ඔN൞ᄹݦඔ֥ܱ༢;CܱႿFބN֥ྟնჿٳљູ0178ބ2122bႨဢ֥Ϸم,္ॖၛቓఃҕඔ֥бࢠ࣡ٳ༅b41бࢠሸܴসनӁԛᄹӉੱܱႿᆃུҕඔ֥ྟᆴ,ૌॖၛु֞ૌ֥ஆ൞N(2122)aF(0178)atބe(0143)aLބE(0127)abॖ,ሇߐ༢ඔFބN֥ྟᆴ൞ቋཁᇷ֥,طཨٮაሧᆭࡗ֥ሇߐ༢ඔᄝЧଆᇏᇶေथקႿఒြ֥ࠗৣིੱၛࠣ൧ӆ֥קࡎིੱ(ؽᆀܒӮਔሇߐ໊൝)֩b၂Ϯط,ఒြ֥ࠗৣིੱၛࠣ൧ӆ֥קࡎིੱุགྷਔఒြࡅ֥ᆯିᄎቔሑঃ,෮ၛఒြࡅᄝሇߐ༢ඔնཬ֥थקᇏ෮ϲဆ֥ࣜ࠶࢘൞ܱ֥bॖఒြࡅ൞ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ᇏࡔ৯ਈbඹa/٤ׅ0֥ࣜ࠶Ԋࠌაᆟک֥ॆၦࣷ൧Ֆൌᆣ࢘؇,ૌ࿊ᄴ/٤ׅ0ؓࣜ࠶֥Ԋࠌᆃ۱σ২ቔູඔଆ֥ႋႨބဒbܙ࠹SARSؓंཨٮ֥࣪႕ཙ൞ࡨഒ2000ၡჭቐႷ,طᆟک֥ॆၦषᆦࡼᄹࡆ400ၡჭቐႷbਸ਼ຓ,ᆟک֥ࣷ൧൭؍ॖၛ൞ඥٮࡨ૧(ࠇҀ)์aඥٮڿ۪ၛࠣࢆ֮ࢌၞуৈ֩ྙൔ,ఃᇏඥٮࡨ૧ܙ࠹ࡼղ֞100ၡჭቐႷ,ᇀႿඥٮڿ۪ࠣࢆ֮ࢌၞуৈᄵ҂ၞᅚ,ၹູᆃਆཛ൞ᇅ؇ྟၹbᄝൔ(25)ᇏ,ंཨٮ֥ᄹӉིႋႅݣᄝሇߐ༢ඔF=cP(Lkp)ᇏ,طᆟکཨٮྟषᆦႅݣᄝሇߐ༢ඔN=sP(Eks)ᇏbೂݔLބkp࠻ק(ࡌקc=5ຣၡჭ),cࡨഒ2000ၡჭࡼ֝ᇁሇߐ༢ඔFࢆ֮4%ቐႷ;ೂݔEބks࠻ק(ࡌקs=1ຣၡჭ),sᄹࡆ400ၡჭࡼ֝ᇁሇߐ༢ඔNഈശ4%ቐႷ;ೂݔᆟکඥ൬൬ೆ൞1ຣၡჭ,ᄵඥٮࡨ૧100ၡჭࡼLᆴ༯ࢆჿ1%bࠎႿՎ,ॖଆSARS֥Ԋࠌིႋၛࠣᆟکॆၦაࣷ൧ི֥ႋb11Ԛҕඔ֥ڮᆴ47
ᄉ ގaൽ ჭ:ҍᆟٳಃaሇߐ༢ඔაࣜ࠶ᄹӉο๙ӈ֥ቓم,ૌ౼H=R=015,Q=0108;ࠎႿᇏݓ֥ݓ౦,౼t=011,e=2,F=N=017;၇ޏߢऄ(1992)ෘ֥ሧЧඔऌ,ο҂эࡎ۬࠹ෘ,ॖ֤yPks=1122,yPkp=0161(ჿႵkp=2ks);ႮႿLაFaEაN֥ܱ༢(c=015y,s=011y),ॖෘԛL=0144,E=0124bᇀႿC֥Ԛᆴ,ૌ౼2003୍ֻ၂࠱؇֥সनӁԛᄹӉ,ੱھ࠱؇֥၂ϮӁԛᄹӉੱۚղ919%bູਔߐෘӮসनӁԛᄹӉੱ,ླေቓ(ൌ࠽)সनӁԛᄹა(ൌ࠽)၂ϮӁԛᄹ֥݂ܱ߭༢b۴ऌ࠹୍֥ඔऌ,ο1990୍҂эࡎູ۬ࠎሙྩᆞཌྷႋGDP(1991)2001୍)֥ඔᆴ,֤֞ೂ༯࠹݂ܱ߭༢:GGDP(L)=-0101369+1102047GGDP R2=019939(-5162)(38141)(26) ఃᇏ,GGDP(L)ູসनӁԛᄹ,GGDPູ၂ϮӁԛᄹb၇ഈൔॖ֤2003୍ֻ၂࠱؇֥সनӁԛᄹູ8173%bܱႿҕඔAބB֥ܙᆴ,ૌ۴ऌ5ᇏݓࣁವ୍:20026ֻ666်֥ඔऌটቓ݂߭bࣼಆഠ߶ܥקሧӁሧটჷট,ुЧ໓ᇏ֥kpႋھݤۂ/ݓࡅყෘ֥ሧࣁa০ႨຓሧaሱԔބఃሧࣁ0ཛଽಸ,ഺჅ/֥ݓଽվॻ0၂ཛႋ݂ᄝЧ໓ᇏ֥ks༯bᆃဢ,๙ݖؓჰඔऌ(1991)2001୍)ቓ҂эࡎ۬ԩaࡆԩၛࠣসन߄ԩ,ॖ֤֞kpބks֥ਙ;ಖުቓসनӁԛ(gdp)ܱႿkpބks֥ؓඔ߄݂߭,֤֞:log(gdp)=412347+011689log(kp)+013415log(ks) R2=019996(63135)(3151)(7102)(27) ႮՎ֤֞A=0117,B=0134bቋު൞ܱႿC֥Ԛᆴ֥ܙ࠹bࡼၛഈҕඔ֥ඔᆴսೆൔ(25)ᇏ,ॖ֤y=210316bᆃဢ,Ԛҕඔ֥ڮᆴࣼປӮਔb21SARS֥ԊࠌིႋSARSؓࣜ࠶֥Ԋࠌ໊҆ᇶေ൞ंཨٮྛູၛࠣཨٮყ௹,ุࠧགྷູc֥эၛࠣH֥эbႮഈ໓֥ܙ࠹ॖᆩ,2003୍ंཨٮࡼࡨഒ2000ၡჭቐႷ,ᆃࡼ֝ᇁሇߐ༢ඔFሹ༯ࢆჿ4%;ؓཨٮყ௹֥႕ཙ൞ҕඔH֥ഈശ,ఃݣၩ൞ंॴൈูսྟ֥эն,ᆃॖႮܼתؿള֥ఽܓӖaܼնၦ֥ܓӚಣ֤֞ቑᆣbࣼૄ۱࠱؇ط,ఃཨٮࠃ෪ࡨਈaཨٮყ௹эਈ൞҂;֥ཁಖ,ֻؽ࠱؇෮൳Ԋࠌቋᇗ,ֻaֻඹ࠱؇ࡼ၇Ց־ࡨ;ऌՎ,ॖ۳ૄ۱࠱؇֥ҕඔڮჍཌྷႋ֥ᆴೂі6෮ൕb表6SARS的冲击效应 季度参数第一季度第二季度第三季度第四季度平 均 转换系数F01700016840169201696消费预期H01500019000180001700劳均产出增速C010873010681010702010739010749 ൈ,၇ൔ(25)ॖ࠹ෘԛཌྷႋ֥সनӁԛᄹ֥ଆᆴbࡼૄ۱࠱؇֥সनӁԛᄹቓन߄ԩ,֤֞C=010749bࡌೂ2003୍֥ൌ࠽সೆᄹӉ016%,ᄵಆ୍֥GDPᄹӉੱᆺିղ֞811%ቐႷb 31ᆟک֥ॆၦࣷ൧ᆟکᄝॆၦഈ֥ٮႨۚղ400ၡჭቐႷ,ൈႻ๙ݖඥٮࡨ૧100ၡჭ߶ҕඔE(ཌྷؓඥ)ੱ༯ࢆ1%ቐႷ,ਆཛކ࠹ࡼNᄝ۲۱࠱؇֥ڮᆴၛࠣଆࢲݔೂі7෮ൕbဢ,ࡼ࠱؇সनӁԛᄹቔन߄ԩ,֤֞C=010866,ࡌೂ2003୍֥ൌ࠽সೆᄹӉ016%,ᄵಆ୍֥GDPᄹӉಯಖॖၛղ֞912%ቐႷb48
2005୍ֻ6௹表7政府的抗疫救市 季度参数第一季度第二季度第三季度第四季度平 均 转换系数F01700016840169201696消费预期H01500019000180001700转换系数N01700017160170801704劳均产出增速C010873010841010857010892010866 41Ԋࠌაࣷ൧֥бࢠࣼᇏݓࣜ࠶གྷሑط,সनӁԛᄹܱႿሇߐ༢ඔF൞ࡨݦඔܱ༢,طܱႿሇߐ༢ඔNᄵӯᄹݦඔܱ༢bᆃіૼSARS෮֝ᇁ֥ཨٮࡨഒؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉӁളਔ؟ᇕིႋ:၂ٚ૫ཨٮࡨഒႵ০ႿসनӁԛᄹ֥ิ,ۚਸ਼၂ٚ૫ཨٮࡨഒ္ࢆ֮ਔস֥ᄹ,ఃሸކིႋࡼ൪ऎุ౦ঃطק;҂ݖ,ֆࣼSARSؓཨٮ֥Ԋࠌط,ఃؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ሸކིႋࡼ൞ڵ૫֥bᆟکॆၦࣷ൧ؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥႕ཙᇶေุགྷᄝሇߐ༢ඔN֥э෮ႄᇁ֥ᄹӉིႋഈbܱႿᆃ၂,ׄᆟکᆦԛഈശ၂ٚ૫ิۚਔসनӁԛ֥ᄹ,၂ٚ૫္Ⴕ০Ⴟস֥ᄹ;෮ၛ,ᆟکॆၦࣷ൧ईծӁളਔૼཁ֥ᄹӉིႋ,ࠧՖ811%ॖၛഈശ֞912%bਸ਼ຓ,ၛഈ෮ቓ֥ଆٳ༅ࣇअཋᄝSARSؓэਈcasބҕඔH֥႕ཙഈb൙ൌഈ,SARS္ॖିؓఃэਈaҕඔӁള႕ཙ,҂ݖ,Ч໓ಪູSARSؓࣜ࠶֥Ԋࠌ໊҆ᇶေุགྷᄝcasބHഈb෮ၛᆺቔਔՙ֥ଆbaሹ ࢲሸഈ෮ඍ,Ч໓ܒࡹਔ၂۱࠻Їওܿଆၹaࢲܒၹ,္Їওླa܂۳aט॥֩Ҫ૫֥ࠢӮࣜ࠶ᄹӉଆbطϜᆃུߌࢫܺԱఏট֥൞ሇߐ༢ඔFބN,ൈሇߐ༢ඔ္൞ൌุࣜ࠶აࣁವࣜ࠶֥୧ࢲb෮ၛЧଆ֥၂նหׄ൞ႄೆਔሇߐ༢ඔb๙ݖؓଆ֥࠹ਈބଆ,Ч໓֤ԛၛ༯ࢲં:1.ࣉ/ྛٮڿඥ0ൔ֥ࢲܒྟڿ۪ॖၛӁളࢠૼཁ֥সनӁԛᄹӉིႋ,ᆃ൞ၹູ۳٤ܿٓྟ൬ೆᆞ,ॖၛࡨഒၹᆟک֥ؠᆭ൭෮ᄯӮ֥ാb2.ᄝགྷࢨ؍,ࡨࡗሧ֥ཌྷؓඥڵࠇࡆᇗᆟکሧ֥ཌྷؓඥڵ,߶Ⴕ০ႿসनӁԛᄹ֥ิۚb3.সनӁԛᄹܱႿሇߐ༢ඔ֥ྟᆴ൞ऍն֥,ऌՎॖၛᆩఒြࡅंႿࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥൷୧ֹ໊b๙ݖؓSARSԊࠌ֥ଆ,֤֞:ؓࣜ࠶֥Ԋࠌ໊҆ᇶေ൞ंཨٮඣ֥ࡨഒބཨٮყ௹֥э;ೂݔીႵᆟک֥ॆၦࣷ൧֥ᄹӉིႋ,2003୍֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱᆺିղ֞811%ቐႷb2.ᆟک֥ॆၦࣷ൧ࠃॖջট၂۱Ϥٳ֥ׄᄹӉིႋ,ࠧॖ2003୍֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱղ֞912%ቐႷbҕॉ໓ངӧॆ֩,2003:5ҍᆟࠢಃაֹٚྛູэ߄6,5ࣜ࠶࿐6(࠱़)ֻ2जֻ1௹bٓຐห,2002:5܄܋֥ܵࡎᆴ۴ჷ6,5ࣜ࠶ഠ߶ุᇅбࢠ6ֻ4௹b഻ً۴֩,2002:5ᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉބࢲܒטᆜ6,5ࣜ࠶࿐6(࠱़)ֻ2जֻ1௹bۚႧ,2002:5ඥ൬֥ޡܴ൪6့,5ඥༀ࣮6ֻ2a3௹b܁ੂถ֩,2002:5ҍᆟᆟҦაࡎ۬ඣ֥थק6,5ࣜ࠶࣮6ֻ2௹bߛഒν֩,2002:5ݓ/ٮڿඥ0֥ᇅ؇ࣜ࠶࿐ٳ༅6,5ඥༀ࣮6ֻ10௹b49
ᄉ ގaൽ ჭ:ҍᆟٳಃaሇߐ༢ඔაࣜ࠶ᄹӉࡉू֩,2002:5ཅཔҍᆟࢳაҍᆟุᇅԷྍ6,5ࣜ࠶࣮6ֻ2௹bक़,2003:5ሇ݅ݓࡅ֥ࠏᇅྟڪϧ:၂۱၂Ϯनޙଆ6,5ࣜ࠶ഠ߶ุᇅбࢠ6ֻ1௹bਾഉ༐,2002:5܄܋ᆦԛٓຶ:ٳ༅აࢸק6,5ࣜ࠶࣮6ֻ6௹bථֺ۬০Շ,2003:5ᆞൔބ٤ᆞൔ֥ᇅ؇6,5ࣜ࠶ഠ߶ุᇅбࢠ6ֻ1௹bᏭ֩,2003:5ҍᆟٳಃॿࡏ༯֥ҍᆟᆟҦބࠊлᆟҦ6,5ࣜ࠶࣮6ֻ1௹bޚ֩,2002:5֒ս൬ೆٳં֥ྍؿᅚ6,5ࣜ࠶࣮6ֻ8௹bএ,2002:5ҍᆟᆦԛ֥ંॿࡏࠣభခ໙6ี,5ҍᆟ࣮6ֻ7௹bᅦౢ,2002:5ҍᆟᆦԛބࣜ࠶ࣟగᆷѓनޙܱ༢࣮6,5ҍᆟ࣮6ֻ11௹bᅦ༻,2003:5ݓᅏൡ؇ܿଆაݓൌീࡨ૧ඥ൬ᆟҦ֥ॖྛ6ྟ,5ඥༀ࣮6ֻ3௹bArrow,..Kurz,1970,PublicInvestment,,D.,1989,IsGovernmentSpendingProductive?JournalofMonetaryEconomics,23:177),.,1990,GovernmentSpendinginaSimpleModeofEndogenousGrowth,JournalofPoliticalEconomy98,S103),R.,1993,ThreadingtheFiscalLabyrinth:SomeIssuesinFiscalDecentralization,NationalTaxJournalXLVI,207),J.,1996,FiscalFederalismandCapitalAccumulation,Mimeo,,C.,1985,EfficientTaxationinaStylizedModelofIntertemporalGeneralEquilibrium,InternationalEconomicReview26,451),,1998,FiscalDecentralizationandEconomicGrowth:ACross-countryStudy,JournalofUrbanEconomics43,244),,2002,OptimalTaxationandIntergovernmentalTransferinaDynamicModelwithMultipleLevelsofGovernment,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl26:1975),,2003,Taxes,FederalTransfer,GovernmentAccumulation,andEndogeneousGrowth,AnnalsofEconomicsandFinance4(1).Jones,L.,Manuelli,,P.,1993,OptimalTaxationinModelsofEndogenousGrowth,JournalofPoliticalEconomy101,485),R.,1990,Supply-sideEconomics:AnAnalyticalReview,OxfordEconomicPapers42,293),,N.,1983,OpticalFiscalandMonetaryPolicyinanEconomywithoutCapital,JournalofMonetaryEconomics12,55),W.,1993,FiscalDecentralizationandEconomicDevelopment,NationalTaxJournalXLVI,237),H.,1996,Taxes,FederalGrants,LucasPublicSpendingandGrowth,JournalofUrbanEconomics39,303),TransformCoefficientandEconomicGrowthYunHe&ShuYuan(SchoolofETM,ZhejiangSc-itechUniversity;LiangnanCollege,SYSUniversity)Abstract:Undertheclassicalgrowthmodelandendogenousgrowthmodel,,structurefactor,,thepaperconstructsamodelwhichincludesscalefactorandstructurefactor,entityeconomyandfinanceeconomy,:%:FiscalDecentralization;TransformCoefficient;EconomicGrowth;SARSImpactJELClassification:E200,H300,O400(责任编辑:金成武)(校对:山)50
