뗚26뻭뗚1웚얩튵쿖듺뮯퇐뺿ꆡNo112005쓪1퓂ꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1000ꆪ0275(2005)01ꆪ0017ꆪ05맘폚솸쪳낲좫벴웚풤뺯쾵춳뗄짨볆샮쇖뷜,믆뫘쇖(뫓놱듳톧뺭볃톧풺,뫓놱놣뚨ꆡ071002)햪ꆡ튪:놾컄붨솢쇋틔솸쪳낲좫풤뺯횸뇪쳥쾵ꆢ풤뺯횸뇪좨훘쳥쾵ꆢ뺯쿞뫍뺯쟸틔벰솸쪳낲좫ퟛ뫏횸쫽캪훷튪쓚죝뗄솸쪳낲좫벴웚풤뺯쾵춳ꆣ샻폃헢튻풤뺯쾵춳,뿉틔벰쪱ꆢ폐킧뗄뷸탐솸쪳낲좫뺯쟩럖컶뫍풤놨ꆣ맘볼듊:솸쪳낲좫;벴웚풤뺯쾵춳;뺯쿞;뺯쟸;솸쪳낲좫ퟛ뫏횸쫽훐춼럖샠뫅:F326111ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:BDesignofImmediateWarningSystemonGrainSecurityLILinjie,HUANGHelin(InstituteofEconomics,HebeiUniversity,Baoding,Hebeiꆡ071002,China)Abstract:’smaincontentincludestheimmediatewarningindexessystemongrainsecurity,theImmediatewarningindexesweightsystemongrainsecurity,thealertlimit,:grainsecurity;immediatewarningsystem;alertlimit;alertdistrict;compositeindexofgrainsecurityꆡꆡ벴웚풤뺯쾵춳쫇춨맽랴펳솸쪳릩쟳욽뫢ힴ뿶벰웤쿠맘뗄튻쾵쇐뺯쟩횸뇪,듓짺닺ꆢ쇷춨ꆢ쿻럑죽랽쟷쫆솸쪳닺솿맀볆랽돌캪:Yt=c+at쏦뛔떱잰쪱웚솸쪳낲좫쮮욽뷸탐움맀,늢벴웚놨뺯ꆣ쪽훐:tꆪ럖컶쓪뛈;cꆢaꆪ듽뚨닎쫽ꆣ(2)솸쪳믹놾탨쟳놣횤돌뛈ꆣ쫇횸튻룶맺볒믲뗘벴웚솸쪳낲좫쾵춳뗄헽좷붨솢,뛔폚헾뢮벰쪱헆컕쟸솸쪳짺닺솿햼웤믹놾탨쟳솿뗄뇈훘,랴펳솸쪳짺솸쪳낲좫뗄ힴ뿶,쫊쪱닉좡쿠펦뗄뛔닟,놣횤맺볒짧닺싺ퟣퟔ짭믹놾탨쟳뗄돌뛈ꆣ룹뻝솸쪳낲좫뗄뚨틥,믡뺭볃짺믮뗄낲좫뫍컈뚨,뻟폐훘튪뗄쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ솸쪳ퟜ탨쟳솿뿉럖캪솸쪳믹놾탨쟳뫍짝돞탔탨쟳,1ꆡ솸쪳벴웚풤뺯횸뇪쳥쾵뗄붨솢믹놾탨쟳펦평뷏룟뗄ퟔ룸쓜솦ퟷ놣헏ꆣ틲듋,쯼쫇랴펳솸쪳낲좫ힴ뿶뗄튻룶ퟮ믹놾뗄횸뇪ꆣ룹뻝뺭퇩쫽111ꆡ솸쪳짺닺낲좫횸뇪뻝맀볆,컒맺뿉틔쓪죋뻹300kgퟷ캪믹놾탨쟳솿뇪룃횸뇪릲짨볆쇋솸쪳짺닺늨뚯쾵쫽ꆢ솸쪳믹놾ힼ,웤횸뇪뿉내틔쿂릫쪽:탨쟳ퟔ룸싊ꆢ짅쪳쓜솿릩룸싺ퟣ싊ꆢ솸쪳ퟜ릩탨닮싊SS=TPöACꇁ100%뫍솸쪳짺닺폫쿻럑뷡릹닮틬싊4룶횸뇪:쪽훐:SSꆪ솸쪳믹놾탨쟳놣횤돌뛈;TPꆪ솸쪳(1)솸쪳짺닺늨뚯쾵쫽ꆣ룃횸뇪랴펳맺쓚솸쪳짺쓪ퟜ닺솿;ACꆪ솸쪳믹놾탨쟳솿,AC=300ꇁ죋뿚닺뗄컈뚨돌뛈ꆣ맺쓚솸쪳짺닺솿쫇솸쪳ퟜ릩룸뗄훷ퟜ쫽ꆣ튪살풴,솸쪳ퟛ뫏짺닺쓜솦뗄컈늽쳡룟쫇퓶잿맺볒(3)짅쪳쓜솿릩룸싺ퟣ싊ꆣ룃횸뇪뇭쪾튻룶맺볒솸쪳뿉뗃쓜솦,쪵쿖뿉돖탸솸쪳낲좫뗄룹놾춾뺶ꆣ솸믲뗘쟸짺닺뗄솸쪳쯹쓜놣횤뗄짅쪳쓜솿릩룸쮮욽,쪳짺닺죴랢짺뷏듳늨뚯,뇘붫펰쿬솸쪳뗄릩룸,듓뛸뻟쳥쫇횸죋뻹쎿죕짅쪳솿릩룸솿폫죋뻹쎿죕짅쪳솿펰쿬솸쪳릩쟳욽뫢벰쪳컯쓜솿릩룸욽뫢뫍솸쪳낲탨쟳뇪ힼ횵횮뇈ꆣ횸뇪횵풽룟,쮵쏷솸쪳짺닺뛔믹놾좫ꆣퟷ캪뫢솿솸쪳짺닺늻컈뚨뗄횸뇪,솸쪳짺닺늨뚯뿚솸쿻럑뗄놣횤돌뛈쿠뛔풽룟,틠벴솸쪳짺닺쿠뛔쾵쫽뿉춨맽닺솿뗄랽닮믲뇤틬쾵쫽뗈늻춬횸뇪뛈풽낲좫ꆣ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪:솿,늨뚯쾵쫽뿉뚨틥캪:R=DESöDERꇁ100%Vt=(Yt-Yt)öYtꇁ100%쪽훐:Rꆪ짅쪳쓜솿릩룸싺ퟣ싊;DESꆪ죋뻹쎿쪽훐:Vtꆪt쓪솸쪳ퟜ짺닺솿늨뚯쾵쫽;Ytꆪt뗄쪵볊닺솿;Ytꆪt쓪헽뎣쟷쫆뗄솸쪳닺솿,벴쟷쫆쫕룥죕웚:2004ꆪ08ꆪ20;탞믘죕웚:2004ꆪ09ꆪ16솸쪳닺솿ꆣퟷ헟볲뷩:샮쇖뷜(1953ꆪ),쓐,뫓놱샖춤죋,뷌쫚,듓쫂춳볆톧뷌톧폫뿆퇐릤ퟷ;믆뫘쇖(1978ꆪ),쓐,뫓놱돐뗂죋,퇐뺿짺ꆣ
18얩튵쿖듺뮯퇐뺿뗚26뻭죕짅쪳쓜솿릩룸솿;DERꆪ죋뻹짅쪳쓜솿탨쟳(솸맺쓚솸쪳탨쟳뛔맺볊솸쪳쫐뎡뗄틀삵돌뛈,쿔좻헢쪳)뇪ힼ횵ꆣ죋뻹쎿죕짅쪳쓜솿릩룸솿(DES)뗄맀튲쫇랴펳맺볒솸쪳낲좫뛔맺볊솸쪳쫐뎡틀삵돌뛈뗄쯣:붫뿢듦(뒢놸)ꆢ놾웚짺닺뗄솸쪳횮뫍복좥쯰뫄ꆢ튻룶훘튪횸뇪ꆣ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪:뇘튪웚쒩뿢듦벰훖ퟓꆢ쯇쇏ꆢ뇘튪릤튵쿻뫄뗈볤뷓폃DR=NIöTDꇁ100%솸,좻뫳내쓜솿뗈볛쾵쫽헛쯣캪쓜솿떥캻,돽틔ퟜ죋쪽훐:DRꆪ솸쪳맺볊쎳틗틀듦뛈쾵쫽;NIꆪ솸뿚쫽솿,뗃돶죋뻹짅쪳쓜솿릩룸솿(DES)ꆣ죋뻹짅쪳쪳뺻뷸뿚솿;TDꆪ솸쪳ퟜ탨쟳솿ꆣ쓜솿탨쟳솿뇪ힼ횵(DER)뗄좷뚨;룹뻝솪뫏맺췆볶퓚튻냣쟩뿶쿂,맺쓚솸쪳릩펦뗄뗄좱뿚뿉춨맽뇪ힼ뫍컒맺펪퇸볒뗄볆쯣,붡뾵죋캬돖헽뎣릤ퟷ솸쪳뷸뿚살뷢뻶ꆣ떫솸쪳맺볊쎳틗틀듦뛈풽듳,뇭쏷뫍죕뎣믮뚯뗄욽뻹쓜솿짣죫탨쟳횵캪2400듳뾨,솸쪳낲좫쫜맺볊솸쪳쫐뎡럧쿕ꆢ헾훎럧쿕뗄펰쿬풽내컒맺ퟜ쳥뗄쿻럑뷡릹닢쯣,웤훐탨튪솸쪳쿻럑살듳ꆣ틲듋,폃헢튻횸뇪뫢솿솸쪳릩펦뗄낲좫돌뛈,뛔싺ퟣ뗄듳풼1800ꆪ2000듳뾨ꆣ폚컒쏇헢퇹튻룶펵폐뷼13틚죋뿚뗄솸쪳탨쟳듳맺(4)솸쪳ퟜ릩탨닮싊ꆣ룃횸뇪랴펳맺쓚솸쪳릩룸살쮵,폐ퟅ쳘쫢훘튪뗄틢틥ꆣ쒿잰좫쟲쎿쓪솸쪳뗄헽ퟜ솿쪵볊싺ퟣ솸쪳ퟜ탨쟳뗄돌뛈ꆣ틲캪솸쪳릩룸ퟜ뎣쎳틗솿캪212%ꆪ213틚t,컒쏇벴쪹좫늿싲쿂살솿훷튪뻶뚨폚솸쪳짺닺쓜솦,틲듋룃횸뇪쫇랴펳솸튲횻쓜싺ퟣ컒맺솸쪳ퟜ탨쟳뗄45%ꆣ쯹틔,컒맺뗄쪳짺닺낲좫뫍솸쪳쿻럑낲좫ힴ뿶뗄튻룶훘튪횸뇪ꆣ솸쪳컊쳢뇘탫틔맺쓚뷢뻶캪훷ꆣ죧맻컒맺퓚맺볊쫐웤볆쯣릫쪽캪:뎡뗄닉릺솿뷓뷼10%(횻햼컒맺ퟜ탨쟳뗄415%),CR=∃CöTDꇁ100◊뛔맺볊솸쪳쫐뎡뗄펰쿬뻍믡뺪쳬뚯뗘ꆣ쪽훐:CRꆪ솸쪳ퟜ릩탨닮싊;∃Cꆪ솸쪳ퟜ릩룸(3)솸쪳쫐뎡볛룱늨뚯싊ꆣ룃횸뇪랴펳솸쪳쫐뎡폫ퟜ탨쟳닮뛮,∃C=TS-TD,TSꆪ맺쓚솸쪳ퟜ릩볛룱뗄컈뚨돌뛈,쫇랴펳솸쪳쫐뎡릩쟳ힴ뿶뗄믹놾룸솿,TS=웚돵뿢듦+풤웚짺닺솿+풤볆뺻뷸뿚솿탅뫅ꆣ솸쪳볛룱맽뗍,쳘뇰쫇짺닺헟볛룱뗍쏔뛔캴살(뗷죫솿)-뇘튪웚쒩뿢듦;TDꆪ솸쪳ퟜ탨쟳솿,TD솸쪳짺닺벰솸쪳낲좫뇘좻믡닺짺뢺쏦펰쿬;볛룱맽=죋뻹쓪솸쪳횱뷓쿻럑솿ꇁ풤웚죋뿚쫽+쓪뻹훖룟,믡펰쿬쿻럑헟쳘뇰쫇욶삧죋뿚뗄릺싲쓜솦,뷸뛸ퟓꆢ쯇쇏ꆢ릤튵쿻뫄뗈솸쪳볤뷓쿻뫄ퟜ솿ꆣ펰쿬솸쪳쿻럑낲좫ꆣ쿠뛔컈뚨뗄솸쪳볛룱쫇쪵쿖돖112ꆡ솸쪳쇷춨낲좫횸뇪탸탔솸쪳낲좫뗄믹놾쳵볾횮튻ꆣ솸쪳쫐뎡볛룱늨뚯랴펳솸쪳쇷춨낲좫뗄횸뇪,릲짨볆쇋솸쪳뒢놸풽듳,솸쪳쫐뎡럧쿕풽듳,벴낲좫돌뛈풽뗍ꆣ룃횸뇪싊ꆢ솸쪳맺볊쎳틗틀듦뛈쾵쫽폫솸쪳볛룱늨뚯싊3뗄볆쯣릫쪽캪:룶횸뇪:PR=ûPt-Pt-1ûöPt-1ꇁ100%(1)솸쪳뒢놸싊ꆣ룃횸뇪쫇횸솸쪳뒢놸솿햼떱쓪쪽훐:PRꆪ솸쪳쫐뎡볛룱늨뚯싊;Ptꆪt웚볛솸쪳쿻럑솿뗄뇈훘ꆣ놣돖뫏샭뗄솸쪳뒢놸,쫇놣횤솸룱;Pt-1ꆪt-1웚볛룱쪳릩펦낲좫뗄훘튪쫖뛎,틲듋룃횸뇪쫇랴펳솸쪳릩113ꆡ쿻럑낲좫횸뇪펦낲좫ힴ뿶ퟮ믹놾뗄횸뇪ꆣ볆쯣릫쪽캪솸쪳쿻럑낲좫틢캶ퟅ맺쓚솸쪳쿻럑뗄믹놾탨쟳:SR=SLöTCꇁ100%뿉틔뗃떽뷏캪뿉뾿뗄놣헏ꆣ랴펳솸쪳쿻럑낲좫뗄횸SRꆪ솸쪳뒢놸싊;SLꆪ솸쪳뒢놸쮮욽;TCꆪ떱뇪짨볆쇋솸쪳탨쟳늨뚯싊ꆢ욶삧뗘쟸솸쪳놣헏쮮욽ꆢ쓪솸쪳쿻럑솿ꆣ볤뷓솸쪳쿻럑햼솸쪳ퟜ쿻럑뗄뇈훘뫍솸쪳짺닺폫쿻솸쪳뒢놸솿냼삨펪퓋뒢놸뫍럧쿕뒢놸,잰헟튲럑뷡릹닮틬싊쯄룶횸뇪:돆훜뿢듦(1)솸쪳탨쟳늨뚯싊ꆣ룃횸뇪랴펳솸쪳탨쟳솿뗄,뫳헟튲돆뮺돥뒢놸ꆣ20쫀볍70쓪듺훐웚FAO(솪뫏맺솸얩ퟩ횯)좷뚨쇋19%ꆪ20%뗄좫늨뚯돌뛈ꆣ폃놾웚솸쪳탨쟳솿폫솸쪳뎤웚쟷쫆탨쟳쟲솸쪳뒢놸싊쮮욽(12%뗄펪퓋뒢놸솿뗄닮틬돌뛈살뇭쪾ꆣ솸쪳탨쟳쓜럱뗃떽싺ퟣ쫇뫢,7%ꆪ8%뗄뮺돥뒢놸),20쫀볍90쓪듺뫳웚룹뻝룷맺뗄쪵볊쟩솿솸쪳쿻럑낲좫뗄믹놾뇪ힼꆣ죋뿚뿬쯙퓶뎤ꆢ뺭볃삩뿶헅ꆢ돇쫐뮯쮮욽쳡룟ꆢ닺튵뷡릹뗷헻뗈틲쯘,뚼믡횱,쿂뗷훁15%ꆪ19%(FAO,1997)ꆣ떫쫇,뛔폚컒맺헢퇹튻룶뺭볃뿬쯙퓶뎤ꆢ죋뿚훚뛠ꆢ쟸폲랢햹늻욽뷓ꆢ볤뷓뗘떼훂솸쪳ퟜ탨쟳퓶볓,솸쪳탨쟳솿뗄틬뎣뫢ꆢ붻춨퓋쫤쳵볾쿠뛔놡죵뗄랢햹훐맺볒살쮵,뛔솸늨뚯믡뛔솸쪳쿻럑낲좫릹돉뷏듳뗄췾킲ꆣ틲듋,솸쪳쪳뒢놸싊뗄튪쟳쿠뛔뷏룟ꆣ탨쟳늨뚯쾵쫽쫇랴펳솸쪳쿻럑낲좫ힴ뿶뗄튻쿮훘튪횸뇪ꆣ웤볆쯣릫쪽:(2)솸쪳맺볊쎳틗틀듦뛈쾵쫽ꆣ룃횸뇪쫇횸솸쪳뺻뷸뿚솿햼좫맺ퟜ탨쟳솿뗄뇈훘,쯼횱뷓랴펳싺ퟣW=(Rt-Rt)öRt
뗚1웚샮쇖뷜뗈:맘폚솸쪳낲좫벴웚풤뺯쾵춳뗄짨볆19ꆡꆡ쪽훐:Wꆪ솸쪳탨쟳늨뚯싊;Rtꆪt쓪솸쪳탨쟳쪽훐:IEꆪ솸쪳짺닺폫쿻럑뷡릹닮틬싊;TDꆪ솿떱쓪솸쪳ퟜ탨쟳솿;∃IEꆪ룷욷훖솸쪳닺탨욽뻹닮;Rtꆪt쓪뷶뾼싇쪱볤틲쯘뗄솸쪳쟷쫆탨쟳솿ꆣ횵:솸쪳쟷쫆탨쟳솿뗄맀볆랽돌캪:Rt=c+at쪽훐:tꆪ럖컶쓪뛈;cꆢaꆪ듽뚨쾵쫽ꆣ∃IE=nûQIi-QEiûi=1(2)욶삧뗘쟸솸쪳놣헏쮮욽ꆣ룃횸뇪쫇횸욶삧뗘쪽훐:QIiꆪ뗚i훖솸쪳닺욷짺닺솿;QEiꆪ뗚i쟸솸쪳쿻럑탨쟳뗄싺ퟣ돌뛈ꆣ욶삧폫벢뛶ퟜ쫇솪쾵훖솸쪳닺욷뗄탨쟳솿(냼삨돶뿚뗈쯹폐볤뷓탨쟳)ꆣ퓚튻웰뗄,욶삧뗘쟸뗄솸쪳탨쟳죴쓜뗃떽돤럖놣횤,룃횸뇪쫽횵풽뗍,쮵쏷솸쪳짺닺폫쿻럑뷡릹뗄컇뫏퓲틢캶ퟅ헻룶맺볒믲뗘쟸뗄솸쪳쿻럑믹놾낲좫ꆣ볆돌뛈풽룟,솸쪳짺닺폫쿻럑뗄낲좫돌뛈튲쿠뛔풽룟ꆣ쯣릫쪽죧쿂:GL=TDöTSꇁ100%2ꆡ풤뺯횸뇪좨훘쳥쾵뗄좷뚨GLꆪ욶삧뗘쟸솸쪳놣헏쮮욽;TDꆪ욶삧뗘쟸놾컄샻폃닣듎럖컶램(AHP램)좷뚨룷횸뇪뗄쓪솸쪳쿻럑탨쟳솿,뿉내욶삧뗘쟸죋뿚쫽ꇁ죋뻹쓪훘튪탔좨쫽,뻟쳥늽훨죧쿂:쿻럑솿맀쯣;TSꆪ욶삧뗘쟸솸쪳ퟜ릩펦솿,뿉내욶211ꆡ뮮럖풤뺯횸뇪쳥쾵뗄닣듎뷡릹삧뗘쟸뗄솸쪳닺솿뫍췢뗘쟸뗷죫솿살맀볆ꆣ떱잰퓚짮죫럖컶풤뺯횸뇪쿠뮥맘쾵뗄믹뒡짏,붫폐컒맺욶삧뗘쟸뗄뇪ힼ쫇죋쓪뻹뒿쫕죫퓚625풪맘틲쯘내헕늻춬뗄쫴탔ퟔ짏뛸쿂럖뷢돉죴룉닣듎ꆣ틔쿂ꆣ춬튻닣뗄훮틲쯘듓쫴폚짏튻닣뗄틲쯘,춬쪱폖횧엤(3)볤뷓솸쪳쿻럑햼솸쪳ퟜ쿻럑뇈훘ꆣ컒맺좫늿쿂튻닣뗄틲쯘믲헟쫜떽쿂닣틲쯘뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ본폚솸쪳솸쪳쿻럑훷튪냼삨뿚솸ꆢ쯇쇏ꆢ훖ퟓ뫍릤튵폃솸,볤ퟜ릩탨닮싊뫍솸쪳폫쿻럑뷡릹닮틬싊뻟폐볈랴펳짺뷓솸쪳쿻럑쫇횸뿚솸틔췢웤쯼폃솸뗄ퟜ돆ꆣ쯦ퟅ컒닺낲좫폖랴펳쿻럑낲좫뗄쮫훘탔훊,캪쇋돤럖랴펳맺뻓쏱쫕죫뫍짺믮쮮욽뗄쳡룟,솸쪳횱뷓쿻럑뇈훘솸쪳짺닺뫍솸쪳쿻럑뗄낲좫ힴ뿶,퓚뮮럖닣듎뷡릹붫훰늽쿂붵,뛸솸쪳볤뷓쿻럑뇈훘퓲붫훰늽짏짽ꆣ웤쪱냑쯼쏇춬쪱뮮퓚쇋짺닺낲좫뫍쿻럑낲좫솽룶쒿뇪훐,죋쏇뛔죢샠쪳욷뗄탨쟳솿붫풽살풽뛠,틲듋,쯇훐ꆣ풤뺯횸뇪쳥쾵뗄닣듎뷡릹죧춼1쯹쪾ꆣ쇏폃솸붫죕쟷퓶뛠ꆣ내헕맺볊뺭퇩,튻룶맺볒믲뗘쟸뗄죋뻹GDP듯떽1000쏀풪틔뫳,퓚솸쪳쿻럑탎첬짏,듺횮뛸웰뗄쫇쪳욷볓릤폃솸뫍쯇쇏폃솸뗈볤뷓솸쪳쿻럑뗄벱뻧퓶볓ꆣ평폚볤뷓솸쪳쿻럑솿뻞듳,뛸쟒솸쪳뮯돉탂뗄쪳컯솿뗄뇈싊쿠뛔뷏뗍,틲듋,볤뷓솸쪳쿻럑뗄늻뛏벱뻧짏짽,뇘붫퓬돉솸쪳탨쟳솿뗄듳럹뛈퓶볓,헢컞틉믡룸솸쪳짺닺듸살뻞듳뗄톹솦,돉캪펰쿬솸쪳쿻럑낲좫뗄튻룶훘튪틲쯘ꆣ룃횸뇪뗄볆쯣릫쪽캪:IR=ICöTCꇁ100%쪽훐:IRꆪ볤뷓솸쪳쿻럑햼솸쪳ퟜ쿻럑뇈훘;ICꆪ볤뷓솸쪳쿻럑솿;TCꆪ솸쪳ퟜ쿻럑솿ꆣ(4)솸쪳짺닺폫쿻럑뷡릹닮틬싊ꆣ룃횸뇪랴펳솸춼1ꆡ솸쪳낲좫풤뺯횸뇪쳥쾵닣듎뷡릹춼쪳짺닺뷡릹뫍쿻럑뷡릹뗄닮틬돌뛈ꆣ쯦ퟅ뻓쏱짺믮212ꆡ붨솢에뛏뻘헳쮮욽뗄늻뛏쳡룟,뻓쏱쪳컯쿻럑욷훖뗄뛠퇹뮯,쿻럑놾컄닉폃1ꆪ9뗄뇪ힼ돟뛈,샻폃뗂뛻럆램,헻뷡릹뫍솸쪳욷훖짺닺뷡릹닮틬퓶듳뗄컊쳢죕붥춻샭볒틢럧,뗃떽룷닣듎뗄에뛏뻘헳(뇭1)ꆣ돶,틲듋헢튲붫돉캪펰쿬솸쪳쿻럑낲좫뫍솸쪳짺닺213ꆡ좷뚨횸뇪좨훘쾵쫽낲좫뗄튻룶훘튪틲쯘,틲캪솸쪳짺닺폫쿻럑뷡릹뗄(1)붫에뛏뻘헳쎿튻쇐맩튻뮯,샻폃릫쪽:쎬뛜튻냣쫇뇭쿖캪튻늿럖닺욷쪣폠,튻늿럖닺욷뛌aij좱aij=ꆡi,j=1,ꇆn2,L,n,죧맻쪣폠뫍뛌좱뗄ퟜ솿풽듳,벴뇭쪾뷡릹쎬뛜풽춻돶,쯹틔짨볆룃횸뇪뗄볆쯣릫쪽캪akj:k=1(2)붫쎿튻쇐맩튻뮯뫳뗄뻘헳내탐쿠볓:IE=∃IEöTDꇁ100%
20얩튵쿖듺뮯퇐뺿뗚26뻭뇭1ꆡ풤뺯횸뇪쳥쾵A폫짺닺ꆢ쇷춨ꆢ쿻럑ꆢ쪱,뿉틔죏캪에뛏뻘헳뻟폐싺틢뗄튻훂탔(뇭3),럱낲좫횸뇪뗄에뛏뻘헳퓲,탨튪훘탂뗷헻에뛏뻘헳ꆣ풤뺯횸B1B2B3뇭3ꆡRI쾵쫽뇭뇪쳥쾵B1132뷗쫽3456789뻘헳AB21ö311ö2B31ö221RI0158019011121124113211411145C1C2C3C4C8짺닺낲C111ö211ö32좫횸뇪C22121ö룹뻝짏쏦뗄에뛏뻘헳볆쯣뗃떽뗄튻훂탔볬퇩쟩23뿶죧뇭4쯹쪾:뻘헳BC311ö211ö321C432314뇭4ꆡ튻훂탔볬퇩쟩뿶뇭C81ö21ö21ö21ö41쿮쒿쏻돆AB1B2B3쇷춨낲C5C6C7Κmax310092510331310000510516좫횸뇪C5122CI010046010083010000010129뻘헳BC61ö2112RI015800111200015800111200C71ö211CR010079010074010000010115C4C8C9C10C11뇈뷏뷡맻<011000<011000<011000<011000쿻럑낲C414345좫횸뇪C81ö411ö212듓뇭7뿉틔뾴돶,쯹폐에뛏뻘헳뚼춨맽쇋튻훂뻘헳BC91ö321233C101ö411ö212탔볬퇩,벴쯹폐뗄에뛏뻘헳뚼뻟폐싺틢뗄튻훂탔ꆣC111ö51ö21ö31ö21215ꆡ닣듎볓좨짨쒳뻶닟컊쳢폐m닣쒿뇪(늻냼삨ퟜ쒿뇪),냑M룷랽낸ퟷ캪m+1닣,쎿쿠쇙솽닣횮볤뻟폐췪좫뗄i=ꇆnaijꆡi=1,2,L,nj=1(3)붫쿲솿M=(M1,MT2,ꆭ,MN)맩튻뮯닣듎맘쾵,쟒짨뗚i닣쒿뇪폐ni룶,뗚i+1닣쒿뇪:(믲헟랽낸)폐ni+1룶,폃W(j)뇭쪾헢솽닣횮볤뗄좨WMii=ꆡi=ꇆn1,2,L,n훘뻘헳,퓲쯼폐ni탐ni+1쇐ꆣMj짨룷랽낸뛔ퟜ쒿뇪뗄좨훘럖뇰캪W1,W2,ꆭ,i=1쯹쟳뗃W=(W1,W2,ꆭ,WTN)벴캪쯹쟳쳘헷Wn,W=(W1,W2,ꆭ,Wn),W뿉내쿂쪽볆쯣:쿲솿,틠벴룷횸뇪쿠뛔폚짏튻닣뗄좨훘뻘헳(뇭2)ꆣW=W(0)W(1)W(2)LW(m)뇭2ꆡ좨훘뻘헳뇭춨맽헢퇹뗄볆쯣맽돌뻍뿉틔뗃떽룷룶뻟쳥쒿뇪좨훘뻘헳횸뇪벰좨훘횵쿠뛔ퟜ쒿뇪뗄좨훘ꆣ퓚룃풤뺯쒣탍훐,릲폐솽닣쒿뇪WATB101539B201164B301297(늻냼삨ퟜ쒿뇪),웤훐:WBT1C101137C201244C301137C401402C8010790113701244011370140200001079000WBT2C501500C601250C701250W(1)=0000015012501250000WBT3C401476C801121C901211C1001121C11010710000147600001121012110112101071ꆡꆡ힢:WAT캪뗚튻닣듎횸뇪쿠뛔풤뺯횸뇪쳥쾵A뗄좨훘뻘헳;평폚폐솽룶닣듎쒿뇪,쯹틔볆쯣룷룶뻟쳥쒿뇪WBT1캪뗚뛾닣듎횸뇪뛔짺닺낲좫횸뇪B1뗄좨훘뻘헳;WBT2캪뗚뛾닣듎횸뇪뛔쇷춨낲좫횸뇪B2뗄좨훘뻘헳;WBT2캪뗚뛾닣듎횸뇪맘폚ퟜ쒿뇪뗄좨훘맽돌죧쿂:W=W(0)W(1)뛔짺닺낲좫횸뇪B3뗄좨훘뻘헳ꆣW=(01074,011317,010740,013580,010819,010410,010410,010788,010626,010360,010210)214ꆡ튻훂탔볬퇩평쟳뗃뗄좨훘뻘헳뿉틔뾴돶,랴펳솸쪳릩쟳욽(1)튻훂탔횸뇪뫢맘쾵뗄솸쪳ퟜ릩탨닮싊횸뇪놻뢳폨쇋ퟮ듳뗄좨훘Κmax-nCI=캪35180◊,평듋뿉틔뾴돶솸쪳릩쟳욽뫢뛔솸쪳낲n-1쪽훐볆쯣에뛏뻘헳ퟮ듳쳘헷룹뗄릫쪽캪좫뗄훘튪탔;솸쪳믹놾탨쟳ퟔ룸싊좨훘업퓚뗚뛾캻:캪13117◊,뇭쪾솸쪳믹놾탨쟳뗄ퟔ룸ힴ뿶뛔솸쪳Κ(AW)max=ꇆn낲좫펰쿬훘듳,퓚맺볊짏솸쪳쫐뎡탎쫆뷴헅ꆢ맺볊헾i=1nWi쪽훐(AW)i뇭쪾쿲솿AW뗄뗚i룶풪쯘ꆣ훎탎쫆퇏뻾뗄쪱뫲,룃횸뇪뛔랴펳컒맺솸쪳낲좫뗄(2)볬퇩쾵쫽틢틥룼캪춻돶;쇭췢,솸쪳짺닺늨뚯쾵쫽ꆢ짅쪳쓜솿릩룸싺ퟣ싊ꆢ솸쪳뒢놸싊ꆢ솸쪳짺닺폫쿻럑뷡릹닮틬CCIR=RI싊튲뚼뻟폐뷏듳뗄좨훘ꆣ쪽훐RI쫇욽뻹튻훂탔횸뇪,튻냣떱CR<011
뗚1웚샮쇖뷜뗈:맘폚솸쪳낲좫벴웚풤뺯쾵춳뗄짨볆213ꆡ뺯쿞폫뺯쟸뗄좷뚨쿠맘컄쿗뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꆣ닎헕틔짏뇪ힼ,룹뻝컒맺짏쫶룷쿮솸쪳낲좫풤뺯횸뇪뗄샺쪷늨뚯랶캧벰솸쪳낲좫311ꆡ뺯벶뗄뮮럖뗄펰쿬돌뛈,좷뚨룷횸뇪뗄뺯쿞뫍뺯쟸죧뇭6쯹쪾:ퟛ뫏뾼싇뛠랽쏦뗄틲쯘,놾컄붫솸쪳낲좫뺯벶313ꆡ솸쪳낲좫ퟛ뫏뺯쿞폫뺯쟸뗄좷뚨좷뚨캪쯄벶,뻟쳥몬틥죧뇭5쯹쪾:(1)뛔룷횸뇪쫽뻝뷸탐컞솿룙뒦샭(춳튻횸뇪쫽뇭5ꆡ늻춬뺯벶뗄몬틥솿벶)뫍쓦횸뇪뗄헽쟷쫆뮯뒦샭뺯벶0123짨Ci쫇솸쪳낲좫벴웚풤뺯횸뇪쳥쾵훐뗄뗚i(컞뺯)(쟡뺯)(훐뺯)(훘뺯)뺯쟩솸쪳낲좫ힴ솸쪳낲좫ힴ뿶닮솸쪳뛌좱솸쪳퇏훘뛌룶뻟쳥횸뇪쫽횵,NAi(NoAlarm)뇭쪾뗚i룶횸뇪뿶솼뫃좱뺯쟩캪컞뺯쪱뗄뺯쿞,SAi(SeriousAlarm)뇭쪾뗚i쳘뗣솸쪳릩탨욽솸쪳릩탨듦퓚튻솸쪳낲좫쮮욽퇏퇏훘펰쿬짧룶횸뇪뺯쟩캪훘뺯쪱뗄뺯쿞,퓲컞솿룙뗄횸뇪쫽횵ꆡ뫢,쫜췢뷧뚨쎬뛜,뷏틗쫜훘쿂붵,뻓쏱솸믡낲좫펰쿬뷏킡떽췢뷧틲쯘펰쿬쪳쿻럑쫜떽췾킲ꆡCꇤi뿉춨맽죧쿂뗄몯쫽뮯뒦샭뗃떽:뇭쿖솸쪳쫐뎡퓋솸쪳쫐뎡퓋탐ힴ솸쪳쫐뎡퓋탐컊엤룸솸쪳ꆡ탐솼뫃뿶늻컈뚨CꇤCi-SAii=NAi-SAi,늿럖쳢퇏훘,솸볛웕ꆡꆡꆡ솸볛짏짽뇩짏짽,늿럖솸ꆡ듓짏쏦뗄볆쯣릫쪽뿉틔뾴돶,춨맽짏쪽뗄볆쯣,쪳뛌좱퇏훘ꆡ룷횸뇪늻떫춳튻쇋쫽솿벶,뛸쟒뛔쓦횸뇪튲쪵쿖쇋헽쟷쫆뮯뒦샭ꆣ312ꆡ룷풤뺯횸뇪뺯쿞뫍뺯쟸뗄좷뚨놾컄좷뚨뺯쿞뫍뺯쟸,훷튪닎뾼쇋틔쿂3훖늻룹뻝컞솿룙뒦샭뗄뷡맻,샻폃틔쿂릫쪽뿉틔뛔춬뇪ힼ룷쿮횸뇪뷸탐뫏돉,뿉뗃떽솸쪳낲좫ퟛ뫏횸뇪쫽F::ꋙ맺볊짏솸쪳낲좫뗄쿠맘뇪ힼ(죧솪뫏맺솸얩ퟩ횯쳡돶뗄뇪ힼ뗈);ꋚ맺볊ꆢ맺쓚뗄뺭퇩쫽뻝;ꋛF=ꇆCꇤWi뇭6ꆡ솸쪳낲좫풤뺯횸뇪뗄뺯쿞ꆢ뺯쟸뺯벶C1C2C3C4C5C6C7C8C9C10C110>-015>95>90>0>15<50ꆫ5<10<015>95<501-115ꆫ-01585ꆫ9580ꆫ90-3ꆫ010ꆫ155ꆫ155ꆫ1510ꆫ20015ꆫ11585ꆫ9550ꆫ602-3ꆫ-11570ꆫ8570ꆫ80-5ꆫ-35ꆫ1015ꆫ3015ꆫ2520ꆫ30115ꆫ370ꆫ8560ꆫ703<-3<70<70<-5<5>30>25>30>3<70>70ꆡꆡ(2)좷뚨솸쪳낲좫뗄ퟛ뫏뺯쿞폫뺯쟸412ꆡ뷸탐ퟛ뫏뺯쟩럖컶뫍풤놨룹뻝짏쫶CꇤWi뗄릫쪽뿉틔뾴돶,죧맻룷쿮풤뺯룹뻝볆쯣돶뗄솸쪳낲좫ퟛ뫏횸쫽뗄쪵볊횵뫍솸횸뇪뗄쪵볊횵뚼듯떽쇋컞뺯쪱뗄뺯쿞,솸쪳낲좫ퟛ쪳낲좫ퟛ뫏뺯쿞폫뺯쟸쿠뛔헕,뿉틔뛔뺯쟩ퟷ돶ퟛ뫏횸쫽캪1,죧맻룷쿮풤뺯횸뇪뗄쪵볊횵뚼듯떽쇋뫏에뛏뫍풤놨ꆣ훘뺯쪱뗄뺯쿞,솸쪳낲좫ퟛ뫏횸쫽캪0ꆣ뻝듋쳘헷놾413ꆡ뷸탐풤뺯횸뇪뗄뺯쟩럖컶뫍풤놨컄냑솸쪳낲좫뗄ퟛ뫏뺯쿞폫뺯쟸좷뚨죧뇭7쯹쪾:춨맽룷솸쪳낲좫풤뺯횸뇪쪵볊횵폫쿠펦뗄뺯쿞뇭7ꆡ솸쪳낲좫뗄ퟛ뫏뺯쿞폫뺯쟸폫뺯쟸쿠뛔헕,뿉틔뻟쳥랴펳솸쪳짺닺ꆢ쇷춨ꆢ쿻럑뺯쟩컞뺯쟡뺯훐뺯훘뺯룷룶랽쏦벰룷횸뇪뗄뻟쳥낲좫ힴ뿶,벴헒떽뺯쟩듦뺯쟸ꇝ10185ꆫ110017ꆫ0185ꇜ017퓚뗄훷튪뮷뷚뫍뻟쳥풭틲,듓뛸뿉캪톡퓱뫍쪵쪩쿠펦뗄폐킧뛔닟쳡릩뻟쳥틀뻝ꆣ4ꆡ뷸탐뺯쟩럖컶,ퟷ돶뺯쟩에뛏뫍풤놨탨튪힢틢뗄쫇,퓚솸쪳낲좫ퟛ뫏횸쫽쿔쪾컞뺯쪱,퓚쒳튻뮷뷚ꆢ쒳튻횸뇪짏튲뿉쓜폐뺯쟩듦퓚,횻411ꆡ볆쯣솸쪳낲좫ퟛ뫏횸쫽룹뻝놾컄좷뚨뗄룷풤뺯횸뇪뗄좨훘,솸쪳낲좫늻맽쫇놻웤쯻횸뇪뗄룼뫃뇭쿖쯹퇚룇쇋,틲듋퓚뺯ퟛ뫏쾵쫽뗄뻟쳥볆쯣릫쪽캪쟩럖컶쪱뇘탫튪힢틢헢훖놻퇚룇뗄잱퓚캣믺ꆣ:닎뾼컄쿗:F=01074Cꇤ1+01132Cꇤ2+01074Cꇤ3+01358Cꇤ4\[1\ꆡ]췵탞럧1맘폚솸쪳낲좫풤뺯쾵춳벸뗣쮼뾼[J]1훐맺솸쪳뺭+01082Cꇤ5+01041Cꇤ6+01041Cꇤ7+01079Cꇤ8볃,2003(1):10ꆪ111+01063Cꇤ9+01036Cꇤꇤ10+01021C\[2\ꆡ]쓾ퟔ뻼,돌샻훙1헣붭쪡솸쪳낲좫풤뺯쾵춳짨볆[J]1볎탋톧11풺톧놨,2003(5):13ꆪ161
