Chapter 3
Human Resource Planning
Learning objectives:
3-1 HRP
– 3-1-1 The Definition of HRP
– 3-1-2 The Elements of HRP
– 3-1-3 The Functions of HRP
3-2 The Process of HRP
– 3-2-1 Determining Organizational Objectives
– 3-2-2 Forecasting HR Needs
– 3-2-3 Forecasting Personnel Supply
– 3-2-4 Developing Action Plans
3-3 The Forecasting Methods
– 3-3-1 Methods of Forecasting Human Resource Needs
– 3-3-2 Methods of Forecasting HR Supply
Learning objectives:
When you finish studying this chapter, you
should be able to:
Explain the meaning of HRP.
Understand the functions of HRP.
Explain the process of forecasting personal
requirements.
Discuss the pros and cons(优劣) of the methods
used for recruiting job candidates.
Key Words:
Human resource planning 人力资源规划
Personnel need 雇员需求(personnel supply)
Additional(net) HR requirement 人力资源净需求
Skill inventory 技能清单(management inventory管理人员清单)
Managerial estimate 管理估计法(Managerial judgment)
Delphi technique 德尔斐技术
Scenario analysis 企业远景分析
Trend analysis 趋势分析(Time series analysis)
Ratio analysis 比率分析(Personnel ratio, Productivity ratio)
Regression analysis 回归分析(Scatter plot散点图)
Succession planning 继任规划
Organization replacement chart 组织替代图
3-1 HRP
3-1-1 The Definition of HRP
Planning
Human resource planning
Defined as getting the right number of qualified
people into the right job at the right time.
– Personnel planning is to translate the organization’s
plans and objectives into a timed schedule(同步进度)
of employee requirements(雇员需求).
– Workforce planning is the system of matching (匹配)
the supply of people with the openings the
organization expects to he over a given time frame(既
定时间框架内).
Planning
计划职能：通过科学预测、权衡主观需要与客观可
能，提出在未来一定时期内要达到的目标和实现的
途径。换句话说，就是对未来行动的预先安排，是
针对未来的谋划、筹备、规划。表现形式有宗旨、
目标、战略、规划、政策、程序、规则。
分类标准 种 类
时 间 长期、中期、短期
层 次 战略层、战术层
职 能 财务、人事、生产、营销、技术
明确程度 指令性、指导性
Strategy
业务战略1 业务战略2 业务战略3
职能战略
Marketing planning
Production planning
Personnel planning
The relationship between HRP and organization strategy
Strategy-Linked HRP
Factors Affecting the Time Frame of HRP
Table P128
Forecast
Factor
Demand
Supply
Net
needs
Short Range
(0-2 Years)
Authorized 授权
employment
including growth,
changes, and
turnover
Employee consensus
less expected losses
plus expected
promotions from
subordinate groups
Numbers and kinds
of employees needed
Intermediate Range
(2-5 Years)
Operating needs(经营需求
) from budgets and plans
Human resource vacancies
expected from individual
promotability data derived
from development plans
Numbers, kinds, dates and
levels of needs
Long Range
(Beyond 5 Years)
In some organizations, the
same as “intermediate”; in
others, an increased
awareness of changes in
environment and technology.
Management expectations of
changing characteristics of
employees and future ailable
human resources.
Management expectations of
future conditions affecting
immediate decisions(对影响
当前决策的未来条件的预期
)
3-1-2 The Elements of HRP
Basic HRP(general HRP) 人力资源总体规划
– The quantity
– The quality
– The structure
Functional HRP 人力资源职能计划
– Recruiting planning
– Promoting planning
– Downsizing planning 缩编计划
– Training planning
– HR development planning
– Motivation planning 激励计划
– Payment planning 报酬计划
The relationship of Functional HRP
人力资源总监在年初发现，公司的生产系统新员工流失比较
严重，公司一直以来传统的做法都是继续补充新人以弥补空
缺。但是，经过调查分析，新员工的流失与老员工的潜意识
自我保护密切相关，他们担心新员工对他们带来职业威胁。
人力资源部门为此制定了一些新措施，一方面改善了老员工
在职务晋升方面的通道设计，另一方面建立由老员工带教新
员工的方式，并补助他们相应津贴。这种方式在初期增加了
公司的人力资源成本，但从长期来看，却极大程度上稳定了
整个生产系统的员工队伍，而且经验的传递、生手到熟手的
过渡都变得非常快捷而自然。这可以通过数字成本对比分析
得出。
3-1-3 The functions of HRP
（1）Poor HRP can cause problems :
Despite an aggressive (积极的) search, a vital(关键的)
middle management position in a high-technology
organization has gone unfilled for six months. Productivity
in the section has plummeted (下降) .
In anotherpany, employees hired just nine months ago he
been placed on indefinite layoff(长期下岗) because of an
unforeseen lag in the workload(工作滞后) in a specific
production area.
In still anotherpany, thanks to the spectacular efforts(巨大努
力) of a talented marketing manager, product demand has
soared(激增). However, because the rise in demand was
unanticipated, thepany has not been able to hire enough
production employees.
A Case:
某公司是一家通讯设备生产厂。在一次例行的理会议上，
销售经理说：“我有一个好消息，我们得到一个大订单，但
是我们必须在一年内完成，而不是两年完成。我告诉客户我
们能够做到。”
这时，人力资源总监提出一个现实的问题：“据我所知，
我们现有人员根本无法在客户要求的期限内生产出符合他们
要求的产品。我们需要逐步对我们现有工人进行培训，同时
还需要到社会上招聘一些具有这种产品生产经验的工人。我
认为我们应该对这一项目再进行一些详细分析。如果我们必
须在一年内而不是两年完成这一项目。我们的人力资源成本
将大幅度增加，项目的成本也将增加。”
Questions：人力资源总监提出的意见依据是什么？
你认为它的意见对于组织战略重要吗？
人力资源与组织发展有何关联？
A Case: The Strategy of Panasonic
由于松下公司很多收入来自产品出口，因此他预
测日元的价值与公司的销量之间存在很强的负相关关
系。当日元升值时，松下的产品就会变得相对昂贵，
从而直某省市场的需求，进而影响公司对日本劳动力
的需求。
1988年，松下人力资源部估计日元价值五年内将
升值30%，他们估计，如果不采取任何措施公司将遭
受劳动力过剩的困扰。因此，公司决定不在国内拓展
业务，而是在世界各地建立“出口中心”，分别到亚、
中国、美国去设计和生产电视机和空调。到1995年，
事实证明这一决策有效地发展了公司某省市场，同时
避免了日元升值给公司造成的损失，而那些没有预测
到这一情况的公司不得不开始裁员。
A Case: 通用电气医疗系统的战略
1998年夏美国全国失业率下降到%，降至25年来最低点。对雇主而
言，一方面这意味着经济增长对产品、服务需求的上升，另一方面也意味
着人力资源短缺。据一项300家金融公司、高科技公司、制造业公司及管理
咨询公司的调查，4/5的公司认为只有找到所需人才（大约是目前员工的两
倍以上），他们才能增加收益。再拿经济中对高技能工人的需求某省市场
对工程类毕业生需求强大以至于该类人员失业率低于1%。根据美国信息技
术协会的估计，在该行业存在19万个职位空缺。由于大部分在婴儿爆炸使
其出生的人在新年伊始就逐渐步入退休年龄，因而认为劳动力短缺会在短
期消失的想法显然不太现实。
通用电气医疗系统将此看成一种获取竞争优势的机会，不仅填补了每
一个高技术职位空缺，而且将雇用成本降低了20%，将填补一个职位空缺所
需时间减少了30%，同时将雇用工作的失败率降低了50%。
具体做法：1、通过学徒培养计划培养高绩效员工；2、为强调招募过
程的竞争性，公司由现有雇员推荐过去曾在公司工作的优秀同事，一方面
强化了公司竞争力，同时削弱竞争对手的实力；3、对网站主页进行设计，
只要点击网页“欢迎加入公司，您想要一份工作吗？”就会跃入眼帘；4、
把招募努力瞄准失业率高的外国移民，为每个雇佣者提供15天强化英语课
程。
The need for HRP is due to the significant
lead time(间隔时间) that normally exists
between the recognition of the need to fill a
job(识别空缺岗位) and the securing of a
qualified person to fill that need(填补空缺岗
位).
3-1-3 The Functions of HRP
（2）Good HRP can bring benefits
Effective HRP can help reduce turnover(流动)
by keeping employees apprised of their career
opportunities(职业发展机会) within thepany.
Effective HRP reduces turnover and increases
long-term success.
3-2 The Process of HRP
Step 1: Determining the impact of the organization’s
objectives on specific organizational units.
Step 2: Determining Labor Demand
Step 3: Determining Labor Supply
Step 4: Determining Labor Surplus or Shortage
3-2-1 Determining Organizational Objectives
3-2-2 Forecasting HR Needs
Factors for forecasting HR needs:
– The expected demand (预期需求) for product or
service
– Estimate the size of the staff (员工规模) required to
achieve this volume
– Projected turnover 预期流动 (as a result of
resignations 辞职or terminations合同终止)
– Quality and skills of your employees
– Strategic decisions to upgrade (提升) the quality of
products
– Technological and other changes resulting in increased
productivity
– Financial resources ailable to your department(本部门
可获得的经济资源)
3-2-3 Forecasting Personnel Supply
Forecasting the Supply of Inside Candidates :
– Promotions 晋升
– Transfers 调动
– Retires 退休
– Resignations 辞职
– Terminations 合同终止
– Deaths 伤亡
– Discharges 解雇
Forecasting the Supply of Outside Candidates :
General Economic Conditions总体经济状况
– 宏观经济形势
– 就业率/失业率
Local Market Conditions地区经济状况
– 组织所在地的就业水平、就业观念、消费水平；
– 组织所在地的吸引力（住房、交通、生活、气候）
– 组织所在地人才竞争状况；
Occupational Market Conditions某省市场条件
–国家HR增长状况（人口结构、人口总量）
–国家HR政策（劳动时间、法定劳动年龄）
–各类院校毕业生规模与结构（教育政策)
–行业薪酬水平与竞争状况
3-2-4 Determining Labor Surplus or Shortage
（1） Strategies for Reducing an Expected Labor
Surplus
Option Speed Human Suffering
1. Downsizing
2. Pay reductions
3. Demotions
4. Transfers
5. Work sharing
6. Hiring freeze
7. Natural attrition
8. Early retirement
9. Retraining
Fast
Fast
Fast
Fast
Fast
Slow
Slow
Slow
Slow
High
High
High
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Low
Downsizing
Downsizing is the planned elimination of large
numbers of personnel designed to enhance
organizationalpetitiveness.
Reasons for downsizing include:
– need to reduce labor costs
– technological changes reduce need for labor
– mergers and acquisitions reduce bureaucratic overhead
– organizations choose to change the location of where they
do business
Effects of Downsizing
Studies show that firms that announce a
downsizing campaign show worse, rather than
better financial performance.
Reasons include:
– The long-term effects of an improperly managed
downsizing effort can be negative.
– Many downsizing campaigns let go of people who turn out
to be irreplaceable assets.
– Employees who survive the staff purges often be narrow-
minded, self-absorbed, and risk-erse
Early Retirement Programs
The erage age of the . workforce is increasing.
Baby boomers are not retiring early for several reasons:
– improved health of older people
– a fear that Social Security will be cut
– mandatory retirement is outed
Many employers try to induce
voluntary attrition among older
workers through early
retirement incentive programs.
Employing Temporary Workers
Hiring temporary workers helps eliminate a labor
shortage.
Temporary employment affords firms the flexibility
needed to operate efficiently in the face of swings in
demand.
Other advantages include:
– temporary workers free a firm from many administrative tasks
and financial burdens
– temporary workers are often times tested by a temporary
agency
– many temporary agencies train employees before sending them
to employees
Outsourcing and Offshoring
Outsourcing is an organization’s use of an outside
organization for a broad set of services.
Offshoring is a special case of outsourcing where the
jobs that move actually lee one country and go to
another.
To help ensure the success of outsourcing:
– outsource only those jobs that are repetitive, predictable, and
easily trained.
– Choose an outsourcing vendor that is large and established.
– Jobs that are proprietary or require tight security should not be
outsourced.
– It is a good idea to start small and monitor constantly.
Affirmative Action Planning
It is important to plan for various subgroups
within a labor force.
Aparison of the proportion of workers in
protected subgroups with the proportion that each
subgroup represents is called a workforce
utilization review.
The steps required to execute an affirmative
action plan are identical to the steps
in the generic planning process
discussed earlier.
3-2-4 Determining Labor Surplus or Shortage
(2) Strategies for oiding an Expected Labor Shortage
Option Speed Human Suffering
1. Overtime
2. Temporary employees
3. Outsourcing
4. Retrained transfers
5. Turnover reductions
6. New external hires
7. Technological
innovation
Fast
Fast
Fast
Slow
Slow
Slow
Slow
High
High
High
High
Moderate
Low
Low
Organizational and Human Resource Planning (p125)
3-3 The Forecasting Methods
3-3-1 Methods of Forecasting Human Resource Needs
Managerial judgment 经验预测法
– Managerial estimates 管理估计法
– Delphi technique 德尔斐技术
– Scenario analysis 企业远景分析（brainstorming）
Mathematically based methods/Statistical Modeling
Techniques
– Trend analysis (. Time series analysis)
– Ratio analysis (. Personnel ratio, Productivity
ratio)
– Regression analysis (. Scatter plot)
Usingputers to Forecast Personnel Requirements
Technique
1. Time
series
analysis
2. Personnel
ratios
ratios
analysis
Description
Past staffing levels (instead of workload indicators) are used to project future human
resource requirements. Past staffing levels are examined to isolate seasonal and cyclical
variations, long-term trends, and random movements. Long-term trends are then
extrapolated or projected using a moving erage, exponential smoothing, or regression
technique.
Past personnel data are examined to determine historical relationships among the number of
employees in various jobs or job categories. Regression analysis or productivity ratios are
then used to project either total or key group human resource requirements, and personnel
ratios are used to allocate total requirements to various job categories or to estimate
requirements for non-key groups.
Historical data are used to examine past levels of a productivity index,
Workload
P =
Number of people
Where constant, or systematic, relationships are found, human resource requirements can
beputed by dividing predicted workloads by P.
Past levels of various workload indicators, such as sales, production levels, and value added,
are examined for statistical relationships with staffing levels. Where sufficiently strong
relationships are found存在显著相关关系的地方, a regression (or multiple regression)
model is derived建立回归模型. Forecasted levels of the related indicator(s) are entered
into the resulting model and used to calculate the associated level of human resource
requirements.
Statistical Modeling Techniques
Used to Forecast Human Resource Needs
Time series analysis
例1: 某公司已知过去12年的HR数量，要预测第
13年的HR数量
年度 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
人数 510 480 490 540 570 600 640 720 770 820 840 930
例2:芝加哥某医院现有病床500张，预备在今后5年内
将床位扩大到1200张，护理部主任和HRM经理受命预
测注册护士的需求量。
图：经调查当地医院规模与注册护士数量之间的关系
200 240
300 260
400 470
500 500
600 620
700 660
800 820
900 860
Regression analysis
Determining the Relationship Between Hospital Determining the Relationship Between Hospital
Size and Number of NursesSize and Number of Nurses
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
(1210)
Hospital Size (No. of Beds)
N
um
be
r
of
R
eg
is
te
re
d
N
ur
se
s
Exercises：
某学校要预测未来五年内教师人数的变化，请思
考可以采用什么预测学校教师人数？
某企业原有总经理4名，部门经理12名，其他员工
120名。一年后，1名总经理退休，1名总经理辞职，
部门经理退休2名，此至3名，其他员工退休10名，
辞职5名。如果该企业规模保持不变，如何编制
HRP？
某大型厨房和电器分销商期望10年中销售额从150万增加到
225万。在审核外部环境时，他注意到当地环境正在变化：雇
员进入某省市场；人口趋于老化，由于子女离家，庭变成空
巢家庭；轻人了与独身享受个人空间；建筑和某省市场稳中
有升，价格稳定。
该分销商要预测10年内对安装工的需求。由于安装工要求在
课堂外具备8个月的在职培训，所以需要准确预测。总经理向
在未来使用自己的安装工而不再依赖外部昂贵的临时雇佣。
这就使得HRP需要通过确定销售额与所要求的安装工数目之间
的关系去决定HR需求。
目前有同行5家公司的情况如图：
100
150
200
250
300
4
7
9
15
17
销售额 安装工
要求：
•把这些数字画在纸上，估计一条回归线。
•使用该回归线预测225万的销量需要多少安装工。
•如果该行业上述趋势不变，你有何建议？单独使用该信息进
行预测有无危险？还需考虑什么因素？
3-3-2 Methods of Forecasting HR Supply
1、Forecasting the Supply of Insider Candidates:
Skills Inventory （Qualifications Inventories）技能清
单
Management Inventory 管理者清单
Anticipating Changes in Personnel 预期人员变化
– personnel inventory and development record 员工
储备与开发记录
– personnel replacement charts 人员替换图
– position replacement cards 职位替代卡
– Succession planning 继任规划
– Markov analysis 夫分析
puterized Information Systems 计算机信息系统
Human Resource 盘点法
对现有企业内HR的质量、数
量、结构和各职位上的分布
状况进行核查，以确切掌握
人员拥有量。
企业规模小时，核查迅速有
效，适用于短期预测；企业
规模大、结构复杂时，需依
赖计算机信息系统，由于该
方法是静态的，不能反映HR
拥有量未来的变化。
•Qualifications inventories
contain summary data
such as each current
employee’s performance
record, educational
background, and
promotability
Skills
Inventory
Form Used
by PPG
Industries
Human Resource 替代法
通过记录各个员工的工作绩
效、晋升的可能性和所需要
的训练等内容，由此来确定
每个关键职位的接替人选，
评价接替人选目前的工作情
况和是否达到提升的要求，
确定企业发展需要，并将个
人的职业目标与组织目标相
互结合。
•Personnel replacement
charts show the present
performance and
promotability for each
potential replacement for
important positions
Simple Organization Replacement Chart
职位层次 G J S Y 离职
高层G
中层J
技术S
操作Y
职位层次 初期人数 G J S Y 离职
高层G 40 32 8
中层J 80 8 56 16
技术S 120 6 96 6 12
操作Y 160 24 104 32
夫分析——通过具体历史数据的收集，找出组织过去人事变
动的规律，由此推测未来的人事变动趋势，其基本假设是组织
中员工流动方向与概率基本保持不变。例：某公司人力资源供
给分析
2、Forecasting the Supply of Outside Candidates
查阅现有资料，包括国家
和地区发布的统计数据和
政策法律变化；
直接就关注的HR状况进行
调查，如毕业生源调查；
对雇用人员和应聘人员的
分析，包括近期雇员的来
源、空缺职位和应聘者的
数量和质量；
•May require
forecasting general
economic conditions,
local market
conditions, and
occupational market
conditions.
陈峰一到HRM部任经理助理，虽然进入这家从事垃圾再生的企业已经3
年了，但面对一大队文件、报表他还是晕头转向。公司副总经理给他的指
示是半个月内拟出公司5年内的HRP。
他仔细思考了自己面对的情况：公司现有生产与维修工人825人，行
政文秘白领员工143人，基层与中层管理干部79人，工程技术人员38人，销
售人员23人。据统计，近5年来员工平均离职率为4%，生产员工为8%，技术
管理干部3%。按照企业的扩，未来要新增白领与销售人员10-15%，工程技
术人员新增5-6%，中层基层干部不增不减，生产与维修工人增加5%。最近，
本地政府颁发政策，要求当地企业优先照顾妇女和下岗工人。尽管公司一
直没有排斥妇女和下岗工人，但也没有特殊照顾。实际上，公司目前仅有
一位女销售员，管理者和技术人员中叶至5名女性，另外在操作工中有11%
的女性但是全部集中在最底层的岗位上。公司目前正某省市场前景乐观的
新产品，预计销售额5年内会翻一番，对此也须制定相应措施应付人员的快
速增长。
问题：
1、在预测需求时，陈峰可以采取哪些分析方法？
2、他应该制定怎样的招工方案（包括各类人员人数、拟招聘人数、如
何观测政府政策和公司发展战略）？
A Case：绿色化工公司的HRP编制
Incident 6–2: A New Boss
1. Do you think Sam Kutzman was a good choice for temporary
section chief?
Considering his experience and background, Sam might seem like
an inappropriate choice. However, it is not unlikely that he has
some type of proven management/supervisory skills. Waymon
Burrell might he excellent technical skills but not necessarily the
organizational, supervisory skills necessary to manage the section.
Also, it might be thought that if he did possess these skills he
would be a good candidate to manage a different section. Many
organizations find it counter productive to promote co-workers to a
direct authority line over each other.
2. How has human resource planning worked in this situation?
It is very possible that this was a result of a management
replacement chart. Wayman Burrell, was not selected for this job
and perhaps he is being kept for a different promotion that will
being in the future.
