1
企业盈利能力分析
2
第一节 报告收益与经济收益
3
一、收益的性质
1．收益概念的发展
在历史上，人们曾经并不独立地计算收益，而
是通过资产的盘点来进行，因而收益通常是指
资产的增加额。
郭道扬提出，在我国西汉以前，人们对盈利的
认识，处于自然盈利阶段。所谓自然盈利，就
是笼统地认为以收抵支，多余部分即为盈利的
一种观念。
4
一、收益的性质 （续）
中世纪的意大利海上贸易，产生了划分确收
益和资本界限的要求
合伙企业的发展
会计期间概念的提出
股份有限公司的发展对持续经营、资本保全、
配比原则的应用有重要的促进作用
5
一、收益的性质 （续）
随着经济的发展，对收益的确认产生了不同的
认识。
一种观点认为，收益确认是资产计价问题，是
通过定期的资产计价，将一定一时期净资产增
值作为企业的收益。这种观点被称为资产计价
观。
另一种观点认为，收益是在持续经营前提下收
入与各种费用合理配比的结果。这种观点被成
为收入与费用的配比观。
6
一、收益的性质 （续）
2．现代会计定义的收益
在传统会计中，收益通常指企业在一个会计期间
所获得的净收益（net income），即一个会计
期间企业的全部收入和收益超过全部费用和损失
的余额
我国《企业财务会计报告条例》第十条第三款规
定，“利润，是指企业在一定会计期间的经营成
果，包括营业利润、利润总额和净利润。”
7
一、收益的性质 （续）
3. 收益的性质
收益和资本两个截然不同的概念。
从经济理论上讲，资本是指某一个时点的财富
存量，收益则是指某一个时期的财富流量。
作为财务存量的资本，必须长久地保持或维护，
而作为流量的收益，则可以分配给投资人和债
权人。
8
一、收益的性质 （续）
财务报告的主要作用是计量和报告本期企业所
获得的收益和资本变动，因而区分收益和资本
变动是非常重要的。
凡是不减损财富存量和未来财富流量的现金流
量是资本的收益（return on capital）；
如果减少了财富存量和未来财富流量的现金流
量则是资本的回收（return of capital）。
9
一、收益的性质 （续）
4．收益的作用
企业收益是衡量企业经营管理水平的一个重要标
志。
企业收益大小对于股东投资决策具有重要影响。
企业收益是分配股利的一项依据，也是分配股利
的最大限度
企业收益是政府征税和再分配财富的对象
企业收益是政府机构调查企业产品或某一个行业
的收益水平或劳务价格水平是否合理的一种重要
依据。
10
二、会计收益概念
传统会计中的收益概念与经济学中收益概念
是两个不同的概念。
会计收益（accounting income）概念是指
本期已实现收入与按照历史成本计算的相关
费用之间的差额。
11
二、会计收益概念(续)
1．会计收益的特点
会计收益依据实际发生的经济业务
会计收益按历史成本原则计列费用
会计收益建立在会计期间假设之上
会计收益依据收入实现原则
会计收益依据配比原则计量
12
2．会计收益概念的优点
会计收益建立在实际发生的经济业务的基础上，
因而是客观的和可以验证的。
会计收益所依据的是收入实现原则，也就是在收
益实现之后才确认收益，因而符合稳健原则
会计收益可以反映企业资产是否完整无缺、企业
资源是否得到充分利用，对于反映企业主管人员
履行会计责任的情况非常有用。
二、会计收益概念(续)
13
3．会计收益概念的缺点
（1）由于会计收益概念依据收入确认的实现原
则，从而导致损益表上反映的企业收益并不是
企业的全部收益。
（2）在物价上升的环境中，会计收益概念是以
现行价格确认收入，按历史成本确认费用，从
而使得成本不能得到真正的弥补。
二、会计收益概念(续)
14
3．会计收益概念的缺点
（3）由于各年资产计价的混乱，导致各年度
会计收益缺乏可比性
（4）由于依赖历史成本计价，使得企业资产
负债表所反映的资产价值失去意义。
二、会计收益概念(续)
15
三、经济收益概念
经济收益（economic income）是Adam Smith
首先提出的。他将收益视为财富的增加额。
经济学家. Hicks对经济收益所下的定义是，
“计算收益的实际目的是为了让人们知道不使他
们自己变为贫穷的情况下，所可以消费的金额。
由此，可以对个人收益下这样一个定义：在期末
和期初拥有相同财富的情况下，本期内可以消费
的最大金额。”
16
三、经济收益概念 （续）
可以用这个最基本的收益定义来解释企业收益。
企业收益是在期初期末企业资本没有变化的情
况下，企业在本期可以分配的最大金额。由此
可见，经济收益和资本保全概念是密切相关的。
或者说，经济收益建立在资本保全概念之上。
因此，要想进一步了解经济学家的经济收益概
念，必须了解资本保全概念。
所谓资本保全概念（ concept of capital
maintenance）是指在资本得到维护和成本
得到弥补以后，才能确认收益。
17
三、经济收益概念 （续）
对资本收益和资本回收两个不同的概念，应当
严格加以区分。但是应用什么标准来区分资本
收益和资本回收，则存在以下两种不同的标准。
1．货币资本保全概念
货币资本保全概念主张应该维护的是货币资本。
这种概念与传统会计实务是一致的。传统会计
用历史成本计量企业的资产净值，因而这是会
计人员所支持的概念。
18
三、经济收益概念 （续）
2．实物资本保全概念
经济学家主张应当保全的实物资本，即企业的
实际生产能力。但是对实际生产能力又有以下
三种不同的理解：
指企业所拥有的实物资产，
指以后年度可以生产或提供同样数量商品和劳
务；
指以后年度可以生产或提供同样价值的商品和
劳务
19
三、经济收益概念 （续）
经济学收益概念的优点：经济收益的概念所包
括的内容，比会计收益概念更为真实。它是企
业的实际收益，而不是名义上的收益。
经济收益的缺点：计量上的困难。它必须以现
时重置成本或现时变现价值而不是历史成本计
量企业的资产净值。
20
三、经济收益概念 （续）
举例说明会计收益和经济收益的差别。
假定某企业期初净资产为10,000元，期末净
资产为15,000元。另外假定期末维持实际生
产能力的资产净值为12,500元。该企业的会
计收益和经济收益分别计算如下：
会计收益：15,000-10,000=5,000
经济收益：15,000-12,500=2,500
21
四、营业收益和总括收益差别
企业利润表中计列的年度收益数额，究竟应
该仅包括本期经常性的业务收支，即仅反映
企业的经营管理水平，还是应该同时包括非
常项目损益，即也反映客观经济条件的变化
因素，存在着以下两种不同的收益概念。
22
四、营业收益和总括收益差别(续)
1．本期营业收益概念
所谓本期营业收益概念，是指利润表中计列的
收益数额，应该仅反映本期经常性的业务收支，
至于非常项目的收支，则不应该包括在内。
本期营业收益概念特别强调“本期”和“营业
”两个关键词。
23
四、营业收益和总括收益差别(续)
本期营业收益概念的第一个问题是区分本期和
非本期收益，从而使不同会计期的收益可以更
好地比较。
本期营业收益概念的另外一个问题区分营业收
益和营业外收益。区分者两种收益的目的在于
使利润表的收益数额仅反映企业正常业务活动，
企业与企业经营管理水平就可以相互比较。
24
四、营业收益和总括收益差别(续)
2．总括收益概念
总括收益概念是指利润表中所计列的收益数额，
不仅包括营业收益，也包括营业外收益。
总括收益所依据的主要理由如下：
（1）营业收益与营业外收入的区分存在许多
困难。
（2）按总概念所编制的利润表更容易编制，
也更容易为报表使用者所理解。
25
第二节 盈利能力分析
的意义与内容
Focus of Profitability Analysis
Profitability analysis is a key part of
financial statement analysis
All financial statements are pertinent
（相关的） to profitability analysis
Emphasis of profitability analysis is on
the income statement
Profitability analysis helps address
questions such as:
What is a company’s relevant income
measure?
What is the quality of income?
What income components are
important for forecasting?
How persistent are income and its
components?
What is a company’s earning power?
Focus of Profitability Analysis
Measuring Income
Income is defined as revenues less
expenses over a reporting period
This definition does not yield a unique
amount because of:
Estimation Issues
Accounting Methods
Incentives for Disclosure
Diversity across Users
Measuring Income--Estimation Issues
Income measurement depends on estimates
of future events，These estimates require:
• Use of judgment and probabilities
• Allocations of revenues and expenses
across periods
• Prediction of the future usefulness of
many assets
• Forecasts of future obligations
Measuring Income--Estimation Issues
Management discretion is part of income
measurement
Estimates of skilled and experienced
professionals Some consensus (less
variability)
Measuring Income--Accounting Methods
Professional
experience
Regulatory
agendas
Business
happenings
Academic
research
Social
Influences
Political
pressures
Accounting
standards
governing
income
measurement
Measuring Income--Accounting Methods
Methods reflect the outcome of numerous
factors, including compromises
Discretion is permitted to accommodate
different business circumstances
Methods geared toward “general-purpose”
financial statements
Measuring Income--Incentives for Disclosure
Ideally:Ideally:
Financial statements fairly present Financial statements fairly present
transactions and eventstransactions and events
Accounting is neutral—not affecting how Accounting is neutral—not affecting how
transactions and events are perceivedtransactions and events are perceived
Methods chosen that are most applicable to Methods chosen that are most applicable to
the the circumstancescircumstances
Relevant information is disclosed—Relevant information is disclosed—
favorable and favorable and unfavorableunfavorable
Measuring Income--Incentives for Disclosure
Reality:
Each of us possess opinions--we see the world
from different perspectives
Managers bring strong views to the table
Managers feel pressures of competition and
society
Directors expect results
Shareholders concentrate on the bottom line
Creditors want safeguards
Financial analysts dislike surprises
Accounting preparers and auditors demand
acceptable practices
Measuring Income--Incentives for Disclosure
Result:
“Acceptable” methods, not necessarily
“appropriate” methods
Measuring Income--Diversity Across Users
• Financial statements are general‑purpose
reports serving diverse needs of many users
• Diversity of views implies an analysis uses
income as an initial measure of profitability
• Use available information adjust income
measurement consistent with one’s objectives
Two-Phase Analysis of Income
Analysis of income and its components involves two
phases
1. Analysis of accounting and its measurements
Purpose: To apply knowledge of accounting to yield
a measure of income, and its components,
consistent with the analysis objectives
2. Applying analysis tools to income (and its
components) and interpreting the analytical results
Purpose: To apply analysis tools to aid achieve the
analysis objectives—such as income forecasting
and estimating earning power
Revenue Sources
Analysis of revenues (sales) helps address
questions such as:
What are the major sources of revenue?
How persistent are revenue sources?
How are revenues, receivables, and
inventories related?
When is revenue recorded?
How is revenue measured?
Analyzing Revenues
Revenue Sources
Knowledge of major sources of revenues
is important to profitability analysis
Each market and product line often has its
own growth pattern, profitability, and future
potential
Common-size analysis of revenues shows
the percent of each major class of revenue
to its total
Graphical analysis is a useful tool to
interpret the sources of revenues
Analyzing Revenues
Revenue Sources
Diversified Companies present special challenges
• Different segments usually experience varying
rates of profitability, risk, and growth
• Asset composition and financing requirements of
segments often vary
• Evaluation, projection, and valuation of income is
aided by segment analysis
• Segments share characteristics of variability,
growth, and risk
• Income forecasting benefits from forecasts by
segments
• Must separate and interpret the impact of
individual segments
Analyzing Revenues
Revenue Sources
Full disclosure by segments is rare
because of:
• Difficulties in separating segments
• Management’s reluctance to release
information
that can harm its competitive position
Analyzing Revenues
Revenue Sources
Reporting requirements exist for:
• Industry segments
• International activities
• Export sales
• Major customers
Analyzing Revenues
Revenue Sources
Reporting requirements consider a segment
significant if its sales, operating income, or
identifiable assets comprise 10 percent or
more of their relevant totals
Notes:
Combined sales of all segments reported
must be at least 75 percent of the company’s
total sales
Ten segments is viewed as a practical limit
on the number of segments reported
Analyzing Revenues
Revenue Sources
Information disclosed for each segment:
(1) sales—both intersegment and to
unaffiliated customers
(2) operating income—revenues less
operating expenses
(3) identifiable assets
(4) capital expenditures
• depreciation, depletion, and amortization
Analyzing Revenues
Revenue Sources
�Similar disclosures are required for
international operations and export sales
(except capital expenditures and
depreciation)
Revenues from a single customer are
disclosed if they comprise 10 percent or
more of total revenues
Analyzing Revenues
Revenue Sources
Limitations of segment data:
• Difficult to define segments
• Arbitrary allocations of costs
across segments
Analyzing Revenues
Revenue Sources
Useful applications of segment data include:
Analysis of sales growth
Analysis of asset growth
Analysis of profitability
Persistence (stability and trend) of
revenues is important to profitability
analysis
Analysis tools for assessing persistence
in revenues include:
(1) trend percent analysis
(2) evaluation of Management’s
Discussion and Analysis
Analyzing Revenues
Persistence of Revenues
Revenues for a prior period are
set equal to 100 percent
Revenues for other periods are
compared to it
Revenue trends by segments are often:
Correlated
Compared to industry norms
Compared to competitors
Analyzing Revenues
Persistence of Revenues--Trend Percent Analysis
Other related measures:
across periods
Assess sensitivity of revenues to
business conditions
Customer analysis—concentration,
dependence, and stability
Revenues’ concentration or dependence on
one segment
Revenues’ reliance on sales staff
Geographical diversification of markets
Analyzing Revenues
Persistence of Revenues--Trend Percent Analysis
Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A)
is often useful in analysis of persistence in
revenues
•Aids in understanding and evaluating period-to-
period changes
•Report on changes in revenue components
•Discloses uncertainties affecting or likely to
affect revenues
•Explains growth in revenues to prices, volume,
inflation, or new product introduction
•Reports some forward‑looking information
•Discusses trends and forces not evident from
financial statements
Analyzing Revenues
Persistence of Revenues--MD&A
Revenues and Accounts
Receivable Relation
Bears on:
Earnings quality
Collectibility of receivables
Analyzing Revenues
Key Revenue Relations
Revenues and Inventories Relation
Bears on:
Future revenues
Analysis of operations
Analyzing Revenues
Key Revenue Relations
Analyzing Costs of Revenues
Measuring Gross Profit
Gross profit, or gross margin, is measured
as revenues less cost of sales
All other costs must be recovered from
gross profit
Any income earned is the
balance remaining after these costs
Gross profit must finance essential
future‑directed discretionary expenditures
Measuring Gross Profit
Gross profits vary across industries
depending on factors such as:
• Competition
• Capital investment
• Level of costs that must be
recovered from gross profit
Analyzing Costs of Revenues
Analyzing Gross Profit
Analysis of gross profit directs attention
at the factors explaining variations in:
• Sales
• Costs of sales
Analyzing Costs of Revenues
Analyzing Gross Profit
Analysis Statement of Changes in Gross Profit
Step 1. Focus on year‑to‑year change in volume
assuming unit selling price is unchanged—Volume
change is multiplied by the constant unit selling price
to yield change in sales
Step 2. Focus on year-to-year change in selling price
assuming volume is constant--Change in selling price
is multiplied by the constant volume to yield change
in sales
Step 3. Focus on joint changes in volume and unit
price— Volume change is multiplied by the change in
unit selling price to yield net change in sales
Step 4. Steps 1 to 3 explain the net change in sales.
Analyzing Costs of Revenues
Analyzing Gross Profit
Analysis Statement of Changes in Gross Profit—
Illustration
Year Ended December 31 Year-to-Year Change
Item Year 1 Year 2 Increase Decrease
1. Sales ($ millions) $ $ $
of sales ($ millions)
profit ($ millions)$ $ $
sold (in millions)
price per unit
(1 ÷ 4) $ $
per unit (2 ÷ 4)
Analyzing Costs of Revenues
Analyzing Gross Profit
Analysis Statement of Changes in Gross Profit
Year 2 versus Year 1
Analysis of Variation in Sales
1. Change in volume of products sold:
Change in volume () Year 1 unit selling price ($) $
2..Change in selling price:
Change in selling price ($) Year 1 sales volume ()
$
3. Combined change in sales volume () and unit price ($)
Increase in net sales $ *
Analysis of Variation in Cost of Sales
1. Change in volume of products sold:
Change in volume () Year 1 cost per unit ($) $
2. Change in cost per unit sold:
Change in cost per unit ($) Year 1 sales volume ()
$
3. Combined change in volume () and cost per unit ($)
Increse in cost of sales $ *
Net variation in gross profit $ *
* Differences are due to rounding.
Analyzing Costs of Revenues
Interpreting Changes in Gross Profit
Analyzing Costs of Revenues
Changes in gross profit are often driven by one or more
of the following factors:
Increase in sales volume
Decrease in sales volume
Increase in unit selling price
Decrease in unit selling price
Increase in cost per unit
Decrease in cost per unit
Interpreting Changes in Gross Profit
Analyzing Costs of Revenues
• Identification of factors driving gross profit yields
• Improved business strategies
• Better assessment of future performance
Tools for Analysis of Expenses
Analyzing Expenses
Common-size analysis
Common‑size income statements express expenses in
terms of their percent relation with revenues
Traced over several periods or compared with
competitors
number analysis
Index number analysis of income statements expresses
income and its components in an index number related
to a base period
Highlights relative changes across time
Changes in expenses are readily compared with
changes in both revenues and related expenses
Tools for Analysis of Expenses
Analyzing Expenses
Operating ratio analysis
Operating ratio measures the relation between
operating expenses (or its components) and
revenues
Equals cost of goods sold plus other operating
expenses divided by net revenues
Interest and taxes are normally excluded from this
measure due to its focus on operating efficiency
(expense control) and not financing and tax
management
Useful for analysis of expenses within and across
companies
Selling Expenses
Analyzing Expenses
Analysis of selling expenses focuses on three
areas:
Evaluating the relation between key selling
expenses and revenues
Assessing bad debts expense
Evaluating the trend and productivity of
future‑directed marketing expenses
Depreciation Expense
Analyzing Expenses
Relation of depreciation to gross plant and
equipment helps reveal changes in the
composite（复合的） rate of depreciation—
this is useful in evaluating depreciation
levels and in detecting adjustments
(smoothing) to income:
It is often useful to compute this ratio by
asset categories
Maintenance and Repairs Expense
Analyzing Expenses
Maintenance and repairs expense:
• Varies with investment in plant and
equipment and with the level of productive
activity
• Affect costs of sales and other expenses
• Comprise both variable and fixed costs
• Do not vary directly with sales
Maintenance and Repairs Expense
Analyzing Expenses
Relation of sales to maintenance and repairs
expense, both across companies and time, must
be interpreted with care
• Analysis and interpretation using this ratio
• Is enhanced if we can distinguish between
variable and fixed portions of these expenses
•Must recognize the discretionary nature of these
expenses
•Bear on（有关）productivity and earnings
quality assessments
• Impacts asset valuations
Amortization of Special Costs
Analyzing Expenses
Expenditure for special costs can be related
to and expressed as a percent of:
(1)revenues
(2)net property and equipment
Amortization of special costs can be related
to and expressed as a percent of:
(1)revenues
(2) unamortized special costs
(3) net property and equipment
Amortization of Special Costs
Analyzing Expenses
Ratios involving special costs are useful in:
Comparison of annual trends in these
relations
Analysis of consistency in income
reporting
Evaluation of income for two or more
competitors
General and Administrative Expenses
Analyzing Expenses
Most are fixed—such as rent and salary
Tendency for increases, especially in
prosperous times
General and Administrative Expenses
Analyzing Expenses
Analysis of G&A should focus on:
• Trend in these expenses
• Percent of revenues they consume
Financing Expenses
Analyzing Expenses
Most are fixed—exception is variable-
rate interest
Most creditor financing is eventually
refinanced and not removed
Interest expense often includes
amortization of a premium or discount
Average effective interest rate:
Useful tool for:
• Analysis of the cost of borrowed money
• Credit standing（信誉地位）
• Comparisons across years and companies
• Assessing sensitivity to interest rate changes
Financing Expenses
Analyzing Expenses
Income Tax Expenses
Analyzing Expenses
Income tax expenses:
Reflect a distribution of profits between a
company and governmental agencies
Usually comprise（组成）a substantial
portion of a company’s pre-tax income
Income Tax Expenses
Analyzing Expenses
Effective Tax Rate (ETR)
ETR (also called tax ratio) reflects
relation between the income tax
accrual and pre‑tax income
Income Tax Expenses
Analyzing Expenses
Differences in ETR from normal or expected
rate affects assessments of income
• Level
• Trend
• Forecasts
Small changes in ETR can yield major
changes in income
Income Tax Expenses
Analyzing Expenses
Analysis of income tax disclosures aims to:
Assess tax implications for income, assets,
liabilities, and cash sources and uses
Evaluate tax effects for future income and cash
flows
Appraise the effectiveness of tax management
Identify unusual gains or losses only revealed
in tax disclosures
Signal areas of concern requiring further
analysis or management inquiry
78
第二节 利润表的特殊项目及其
对财务分析的影响
79
一、非正常项目或非经常项目
（一）含义
利润表上的某些项目属于非正常或非经常项目。
非常项目包括：
（1）出售证券的利得
（2）无法收回的应收款的损失
（3）存货跌价损失等
80
（二）列示
1. 这些项目一般与正常发生和经常发生的收
入和费用、利得和损失列在一起；
2. 如果这些非常项目是重要的，应在税前单
独列示。
81
（三）分析
在对报表进行最初分析时，应将非正常或非经常
项目考虑在内，因为它们与企业的经营有关。
在补充分析时，应该将这些项目从税后净收益中
剔除出去。
非正常或非经常项目应该按照净税额（税后数额）
剔除出去，因而通常有必要估计税收影响。其合
理的估计可以通过列示在附注中的所得税率或通
过所得税除以税前收益计算出的税率而得。
82
二、非合并子公司的
股权投资收益
当进行股票投资并采用权益法记账（投资
不合并）时，投资者应报告股权投资收益
（损失）。
83
（一）问题
1. 如果股权投资收益不是以现金方式取得，那
么投资者报告的股权投资收益就要大于投资公
司取得的现金。如果投资公司报告大量的股权
投资收益，那么其净收益的数额可能比其实际
支付股利或偿还到期债务的能力要大。
84
（一）问题
2. 从财务分析的角度看，非合并子公司的股权投资收
益带来一些实际问题：由于这些收益是其他企业的经
营收益，而不是由本企业直接经营带来的收益。因而，
股权投资收益歪曲了企业在经营过程中所取得的成果。
这给盈利能力的分析带来一个问题。因为对获利能力
的评价多数是将收益数字与其他数字（通常是资产负
债表上的数字）相对比。由于这些股权投资收益数字
来自非合并子公司，因此在计算比率时分子与分母之
间就会不一致。
85
例如销售利润率：有些财务比率更容易被股权
投资收益歪曲。例如收益与销售收入之间的比
率就可能由于股权投资收益而被歪曲。因为该
比率的分子包括企业经营收益和从非合并子公
司取得的股权投资收益；而分母（销售收入）
只包括本企业经营所得的销售收入，由于子公
司是非合并的，因而非合并子公司的销售收入
并未列示在投资者的收益表上。这样就使得比
率被歪曲了。
（一）问题
86
（二）列示和分析
从非合并子公司收益中取得的股权投资收益应
在所得税前列示。
由于所得税与接受的股利相联系，且金额不大，
因而在进行财务分析时，如果要剔除股权投资
收益，可不必计算所得税。
87
（三）有关“营业所得税”的说
明
我们这里举例说明的联邦、州和地方所得税均
以所报告的会计利润为基准。
所得税既包括已交纳的所得税，也包括递延所
得税，但不包括按净税额列示的项目。
88
三、停止营业
（一）含义及披露要求
非正常项目的一个常见类型就是企业或生产线的
清理。APB No. 30要求揭示为评价停止营业对
企业影响的必要信息。
如果清理符合APB No. 30的要求，那么就需将其作
为资产负债表的一个单独项目来说明由于清理企业的
某一部门而引起的利得或损失。
此外，还要将已经清理或即将清理的该部门的经营成
果与利得或损失列在一起。
这些结果要作为一个单独的部分，在持续经营项目之
后列示。
89
（二）停止营业带来的
财务分析问题
主要是在获利能力分析时的问题。
理想情况下，持续经营的收益对预测未来收益
是一个可以利用的最佳数字。
但在实务中，进行初步的获利能力分析，存在
一些与剔除停止营业的利得或损失相关联的实
际问题。问题集中表现在两点：
90
（二）停止营业带来的
财务分析问题
1. 与停止营业有关的信息披露不充分，以至
于无法剔除资产负债表上与停止营业有关的金
额；
2. 缺少与停止营业相关的过去盈利或亏损的
资料。
91
（三）具体的分析方法
1. 利润表项目
在分析时，最好的分析方法应剔除利润表上与
停止经营有关的项目。
由于利润表列示的与停止营业有关的项目通常
是扣除所得税后的净值，因此要剔除利润表上
的这些项目就不用进一步调整所得税。
在补充分析时，应考虑停止营业，这样可避免
因完全忽略这些项目而造成的影响。
92
（三）具体的分析方法
2. 资产负债表项目
理想的情况下，在进行初步分析时，资产负债表上与停
止营业有关的项目也应剔除。这些项目应在补充分析时
应予以考虑，因为它们对未来经营收益的预测并无帮助。
但由于揭示不充分的缘故，这些项目经常无法从分析中
剔除出去。
资产负债表与停止营业相关的项目经常在年末资产负债
表日前进行处理。在这种情况下，资产负债表与停止营
业有关的项目并不反映当年存在的问题。
93
四、非常项目
（extraordinary items）
1. 含义及例子
APB No. 30定义：非正常且非经常发生的重
大事件或经济业务。
例如：
（1）重大的偶发事件，如火灾；
（2）新颁布的法规所规定的禁止事项；
（3）没收财产等。
94
2. 报表揭示
非常项目必须按其扣除所得税影响后的净值单
独列示。（净税额）
对EPS的影响也必须单独列示。
四、非常项目
（extraordinary items）
95
3. 分析
在分析损益以确定企业未来发展趋势时，应剔
除非常项目。因为这些非常项目并不是人们期
望发生或预期发生的。
在补充分析时，则应考虑这些项目，以避免因
完全忽视这些项目而造成的损失。
非常项目通常列示其扣除所得税影响后的净值，
因此，当剔除列示在利润表上的这些项目时，
不必进一步调整所得税。
四、非常项目
（extraordinary items）
96
五、会计原则变更的累计影响
1. 会计原则变更的会计处理方法
APB No. 20不要求追溯调整，新采用的会计
原则涉及的变动只在当年反映，而以前年度仍
沿用以前的会计原则。
问题：影响可比性。
97
现行解决办法：
（1）为了使得报表具有可比性，另外的报告准则要求将
由于会计原则变更而对以前年度损益的累计影响数在
变更年度的利润表上单独列示。一般列在净收益前。
（2）如果存在会计原则变更的累计影响，那么报告准则
就要求：将按预期形式调整（即假设新原则已经生效）
非常项目前收益和净收益，并将其列示在各期利润表
上，其列示就好象新采纳的会计原则已经在受影响的
各期应用。这项预期形式调整是追加列示在利润表的
底部。实际上，这种预期形式调整经常不予列示或只
是部分列示。
五、会计原则变更的累计影响
98
2. 不追溯调整的例外情况
APB No. 20提出了几种不追溯调整的例外情况。对多
数例外情况而言，前期财务报表要用新会计原则加以追
溯调整；唯一例外的是当累计影响无法确定时，如转向
采用LIFO，这时公司的财务报表应用附注来解释会计
原则的变更以及无法确定累计影响的事实。
LIFO下，基年存货是采用LIFO那一年的期初存货，此
时没有以前年度的重新陈报或累计影响的会计处理。这
时就给获利分析带来可比性问题。
五、会计原则变更的累计影响
99
不追溯调整的问题：
（1）因为它在变更年度利润表上列示的是一个
潜在的（可能的）重大收益或损失，而这一金
额与当年的经营情况没有联系；
（2）与以前年度的比较存在问题。
五、会计原则变更的累计影响
100
3. SFAC No. 5
建议会计原则变更的影响不必包括在原则变更
当年的利润表中，然而这一建议仍未成为
FASB的议题。
五、会计原则变更的累计影响
101
4. 不追溯对财务报表分析的影响
不追溯使财务报表分析没有一种理想的办法。
虽然SFAC 建议在分析时将会计原则变更的影响从
利润表上剔除，然而仍解决不了可比性问题，即变更年
度和以后年度的损益是基于新会计原则，而变革年度以
前的损益却是基于原来的会计原则。
如果你认为损益受会计原则变更的影响很大以致报表比
较会受到重大歪曲，那么不要使用变更年度以前的报表
作为比较分析的内容。
同时也要注意在利润表底部列出的新会计原则的形式调
整。虽然这些形式调整资料具有可比性，但其作用却是
有限的。
五、会计原则变更的累计影响
102
六、少数股东收益
1. 含义与意义
当母公司与非全资子公司合并时，子公司的收
入、费用都包括在母公司的合并收益表中。为
了确定应计入母公司的收益，就必须首先确定
少数股东应享收益。
103
六、少数股东收益
2. 列示
少数股东应享收益有时列在预计所得税费用之
前，有时列示于其后。当列在预计所得税之前
时，通常按含税总额列示；当列在预计所得税
费用之后时，按税后净额列示。
在书中假设按税后净额列示。
104
六、少数股东收益
3. 分析
由于存在少数股权应享收益，一些比率经常被
歪曲。对于那些受少数股权应享收益影响的比
率，本书提出一种最近备受推崇的方法。
105
第四节 盈利能力分析指标体系
106
（一）国外的概况
“现代财务分析之父”亚历山大·华尔在其经
典文献《信用预测研究》（1919年）及《财务
报表比率分析》（1928年）中认为，财务评价
指标体系包括七个指标：流动比率、自有资本
对固定资产比率、自有资本对负债比率、存货
周转率、应收账款周转率、固定资产周转率、
自有资本周转率。这七个财务分析指标中竟连
一个盈利能力指标也没有。
107
（一）国外的概况（续）
其原因可能有两个方面：
一方面当时的企业规模一般较小，企业的所有者
（往往也就是企业的经营者）关注的是企业实际拥
有多少资产、对外承担多少负债，自己的权益是多
少，而将利润信息放在次要地位；
另一方面，企业外部融资的形式比较单一，主要是
从银行取得贷款，而银行主要关心的是企业的偿债
能力，即关心的主要是企业的财务状况，而非利润。
108
20世纪初期，在主要发达的资本主义国家发生
了两大可以大书特书的变化，它们对财务分析
发生了根本性的影响。
一是主要发达的资本主义国家兴起了企业合并
的第一次浪潮，企业经营向规模化方向发展，
企业规模的扩大促成了企业产权向社会化和分
散化方向发展，少数产权所有者已无力干预企
业的生产经营活动，所以其投资的目的主要是
为了获取短期投资收益（包括股利收益和股票
增值收益），这样投资者对企业的盈利信息特
别关注。
（一）国外的概况（续）
109
这一事实在三十年代已经确立，因此美国著名
的会计学家.利特尔顿教授在其著作《会计
理论结构》第二章中阐述了“收益重心论”。
从此利润表成了企业对外公布的法定财务报表，
获利能力分析也成为财务分析的核心内容。
（一）国外的概况（续）
110
第二大历史事实是：在二十世纪初期，以美国
为首的资本市场繁荣起来，企业不再单纯从银
行融资，融资形式趋向于多样化，并且企业产
权趋于社会化和分散化。
由于股权的分散性，每一位股东在公司股份总
额中所占有的比例较小，在股东大会上的作用
很微弱。这就决定了每一位股东在客观上无力
对公司及其管理阶层施加直接的控制，特别是
在公司出现危机时，无力对公司及时进行重组。
（一）国外的概况（续）
111
同时，股东较低的持股比例，也决定了他们在
主观上没有欲望参与直接控制公司，他们的主
要目标是使自身短期收益最大化。
他们客观上无力对公司及其管理阶层施加直接
的控制也迫使他们在主观上不去关心公司的长
远发展。因此这些投资者对企业的盈利信息尤
其关注，而将企业的财务状况放到次要地位。
这也是获利能力成为企业财务评价核心内容的
另一个重要原因。
（一）国外的概况（续）
112
1950年，美国学者杰克逊·马丁德尔（Jackson
Martindell）提出了一套比较完整的公司管理
能力评价指标体系，主要包括公司的社会贡献、
组织结构、收益状况、对股东的服务、研究与
发展、董事会业绩分析、公司财务政策、公司
生产效率、销售组织、对经理人的评价等。
马丁德尔的业绩评价思想在当时来讲最为全面，
形成了现代企业业绩评价方法的框架。
（一）国外的概况（续）
113
同时期，美国著名管理学家彼得·德鲁克
（peter. ）在通过实证研究后提出
了企业业绩评价八项指标:市场地位、革新生
产率、实物资源、财务资源、获利能力、管理
者的业绩与发展、员工的业绩与态度、社会责
任。
这些企业业绩评价指标体系中，都将盈利能力
作为其重要的组成部分。
（一）国外的概况（续）
114
20世纪80年代美国管理会计委员会从财务效益
的角度发布了“计量企业业绩说明书”，提出
了净收益、每股盈余、现金流量、投资报酬率、
剩余收益、市场价值、经济收益、调整通货膨
胀后的业绩等8项计量企业经济效益的指标 。
（一）国外的概况（续）
115
Profitability Ratios
Gross Profit Margin
Gross Profit/Net Sales
Operating Profit Margin
Operating Profit/Net Sales
Net Profit Margin
Net Earnings/Net Sales
All measure firm’s ability to translate sales
dollars into profits
116
Profitability Ratios (continued)
Cash Flow Margin
Cash Flow from Operating Activities /
Net Sales
Measures ability to translate sales into
cash (with which to pay bills!)
117
Profitability Ratios (continued)
Return on Investment (or Return on Assets --
same thing, different words!)
EBIT/Total Assets
Return on Equity
Net Earnings/Stockholders’ Equity
Both measure overall efficiency of firm in
managing investment in assets and
generating return to stockholders
118
Profitability Ratios (continued)
Cash Return on Assets
Cash Flow from Operating Activities / Total
Assets
Useful comparison to return on investment
Indicates firm’s ability to generate cash from
utilizing its assets
119
Other Ratios You Hear About..
Earnings per Common Share
Net Earnings/Average Common Shares
Outstanding
Indicates return on a per share basis
Price to Earnings
Market Price of Common Stock/Earnings per
Common Share
Expresses a multiple（倍数） the stock market
places on earnings
120
Other Ratios (continued)
Dividend Payout
Dividends per Share/Earnings per Share
Shows percentage of earnings paid out to
stockholders
Dividend Yield
Dividends per Share/Market Price of Common
Share
Shows rate earned by shareholders from dividends
relative to current stock price
121
改革开放前，对国有企业经营绩效的评价基本上
是借鉴苏联的经验，对企业业绩的评价侧重于工
业企业，评价指标主要是产值、产量等；评价的
方法主要是将实际数据与计划比较，对企业的盈
利能力并不重视。
改革开放以后，在推行承包经营责任制阶段，评
价指标主要是企业利润完成和上交情况，评价方
法主要是将实际数据与承包指标对比，评价的也
不是企业的盈利能力。
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
122
进入20世纪90年代以后，随着我国市场经济体
制的逐步建立与完善、国企改革的不断深化，
企业盈利能力评价日益受到重视。
1992年，国家计委、国务院生产办、国家统计
局联合下发了《关于改进工业生产评价考核指
标的报告》，增加了工业企业资金利税率和工
业产品成本利润率作为评价、考核主要生产要
素占用和耗费所创造的剩余产品状况的主要指
标。
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
123
1993年颁布的“两则”、“两制”中，规定了
8项财务评价指标，其中涉及企业盈利能力评
价的指标有资本金利润率、销售利税率、成本
费用利润率三项。
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
124
财政部1995年颁布的评价企业经济效益的10
项指标。
其中与获利能力直接相关的有4个：
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
（1）销售利润率=
（2）总资产报酬率=
125
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
126
这些指标较好地从不同侧面反映了企业的盈利
能力。
第一个指标销售利润率可以考核企业每元销售收入
赚取的利润总额，反映了销售收入补偿企业成本费
用总额的能力；
第二个指标从全体资金提供者（包括股东和债权人）
的角度衡量了企业投入与产出的结果；
第三个与第四个指标从股东的角度考察了企业投入
与产出的结果。
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
127
为适应社会主义市场经济体制下政府职能转变
和强化国有企业监管的需要,财政部、国家经济
贸易委员会、人事部、国家发展计划委员会四
部委于1999年6月联合颁布了《国有资本金效
绩评价规则》和《国有资本金效绩评价操作细
则》。国有资本金效绩评价指标体系由8个基
本指标、16个修正指标、8个评议指标三层次
共32项指标构成。
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
128
（1）基本指标中评价企业盈利能力的指标
基本指标是评价企业效绩的主要计量指标，是
整个评价指标体系的核心，用于企业效绩的初
步评价。
基本指标中涉及盈利能力评价的指标有两个：
净资产收益率与总资产报酬率。
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
129
该指标是财政部1995年颁布的评价企业经济
效益的指标中资本收益率的扩展与完善（只是
将实收资本扩展到净资产），因此能更好地从
股东的角度评价企业的盈利能力。
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
130
该指标与财政部1995年颁布的总资产报酬率
评价指标相同，评价的是企业运用所拥有或控
制的全部资源创造利润的能力，并且剔除了资
本结构和所得税因素对获利能力的影响，是综
合反映企业盈利能力的最重要的指标。
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
131
（2）修正指标中评价企业盈利能力的指标
修正指标是从多方面调整完善基本指标评价结
果的计量因素，是整个评价指标体系的重要辅
助。
通过若干项定量修正指标的分析，对初步评价
结果进行全面调整和修正，以形成企业效绩评
价的基本结论。
修正指标中用于评价企业获利能力的指标有三
个指标：资本保值增值率、销售（营业）利润
率与成本费用利润率。
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
132
资本保值增值率
＝
该指标是财政部1995年颁布的评价企业经济
效益的指标中资本保值增值率的完善（只是在
1995年颁布的资本保值增值率分子的基础上
扣除国家资本金及其权益因客观因素增加额和
国家资本金及其权益因客观因素减少额两大类；
分母相同）。
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
133
销售（营业）利润率
＝
该指标比财政部1995年颁布的评价企业经济
效益的指标中销售利润率更为合理，分子用销
售（营业）利润替代了利润总额。
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
134
成本费用利润率
=
在财政部1995年颁布的评价企业经济效益的指
标中没有该指标。该指标从“所费”与“所得
”的角度评价了企业的盈利能力。
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
135
需要补充说明的是，1999年财政部等四部委联
合颁布了企业效绩评价体系，仍然沿用了传统
的会计基础，只有一个指标涉及到现金流量概
念。2002年对此又进行了修订，增加了“盈余
现金保障倍数”指标，同时把“现金/流动负
债比率”的权重由4提高到10，说明对现金流
量分析的重视程度有所提高。
（二）我国政府部门对企业
盈利能力评价的指标
136
第五节 收益质量分析
137
收益质量分析起源于证券市场的股票定价。
公司的收益水平及其变动能够说明公司目前以及未
来经济价值创造能力的有关信息。
投资者应仔细地研究报表收益和预测收益的来源，
然后评价它们作为经济价值创造能力指示器的指示
程度。这项研究和评价就称为收益质量分析。
138
The role of earnings in valuation
1. If investors are interested in a company’s
future cash flows, what role does earnings
have in valuation?
d. Research finds that current accounting
earnings are a better predictor of
future cash flows than are current
cash flows!
• Stock returns correlate better with
accrual accounting earnings than with
realized operating cash flows.
139
The role of earnings in valuation
2. Through the use of accruals and
deferrals, accrual accountingaccrual accounting produces
an earnings number that smoothes out
the unevenness or “lumpiness” in year-to-
year cash flows,
and it provides an estimate of
sustainable “annualized” long-run future long-run future
free cash cash flows.
140
The role of earnings in valuation
3. Valuation model where current
observed earnings replace
current cash flows :
P0 = (CF0) + (CF0) + (CF0) + Continuing to Infinity
(1+r)t (1+r)t (1+r)t
X 0 X 0 X 0
141
The role of earnings in valuation
4. So we can now express the Current Stock Price as:
P0 = 1
X0 r
a. The left-hand side of the equation is the price-
earnings (P/E) ratio, also called the earnings
multiple,
• which is a measure of the relation between a firm’s
current earnings and its share price.
142
So we can now express the Current Stock Price as:
P0 = 1
X0 r
b. The price-earnings ratio in tje equation, under the
assumption of zero growth, is the reciprocalreciprocal of
the risk-adjusted interest rate used to discount
future earnings.
The role of earnings in valuation
143
E. Research on earnings and equity
valuation:
1. The above equation suggests that
current earnings can “explain” current
value.
P0 = 1 (X0) = X0
r r
The role of earnings in valuation
144
immediately follows that earnings
differences across firms should help explain
differences in these firm’s stock prices
(., earnings are value-relevantearnings are value-relevant).
P0 = 1 (X0) = X0
r r
E. Research on earnings and equity
valuation:
The role of earnings in valuation
145
3. Cross-sectional tests
(., test that examine the association between
stock prices and earnings across many firms at
a given point in time) show that
earnings explain only %earnings explain only % of the proportion of
variation in stock prices of grocery companies.
WHY??
P0 = 1 (X0) = X0
r r
E. Research on earnings and equity
valuation:
The role of earnings in valuation
146
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
A. Risk Differences:
1. Firms with the same
level of current and future
earnings can sell for
different prices because
of differences in risk or
uncertainty associated
with those earnings.
147
A. Risk Differences:
2. Riskier firms have
higher discount rates that
lead to lower prices.
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
148
1. The market values of a firm’s growth
opportunities—
is the possibility of earnings from
reinvesting current earnings in projects
that will earn a rate of return in excess of
the cost of equity capital
(., the discount rate).
B. Growth opportunities:
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
149
B. Growth opportunities:
2. The net present value of growth
opportunities (NPVGO) from the
reinvestment of current earningsreinvestment of current earnings adds a
positive increment to a firm’s
average P/E multiples.
P0 = X0 + NPVGO
r
Present value of earnings from assets in place
NPV of future growth opportunities
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
150
B. Growth opportunities:
4. The growth rate in earnings
depends on:
a. The portion of earnings
reinvested each period, called the
retention ratio.
b. The rate of return on new
investment.
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
151
C. Permanent, transitory, and valuation-
irrelevant components of earnings
1. If investors view firms’ current earnings levels to
persist in perpetuity, then the slope coefficient ()
in equation () should equal the average earnings
multiple . (P0/X0)
Pi = a + (Xi) + eiEnd of Period Stock Price
Equation
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
152
End of Period Stock Price
Equation
Pi = a + (Xi) + ei
2. For many firms, the earnings multiple
falls well below this theoretical value,
In part, because of distinctly different different
earnings componentsearnings components, each subject to
different earnings capitalization rates.
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
C. Permanent, transitory, and valuation-
irrelevant components of earnings
153
End of Period Stock Price Pi = a + (Xi) + ei
2. For many firms, the earnings multiple
falls well below this theoretical value.
a. A permanent earnings componentpermanent earnings component is value
relevant and expected to persist into the future.
i. In theory, the multiple for permanent earnings permanent earnings
componentcomponent should approach 1/r.
ii. Income from continuing operations (exclusive of
special or nonrecurring items) is a recurring,
sustainable component of a company’s profit profit
performanceperformance.
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
154
Restructuring charges
are generally considered
nonrecurring itemsnonrecurring items, once
a firm has recorded them
it is unlikelyunlikely that they will
record additional
restructuring charges
within the next three
years.
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
155
End of Period Stock Price Pi = a + (Xi) + ei
2. For many firms, the earnings multiple
falls well below this theoretical value.
b. A transitory earnings component is
value-relevant, but is not expectednot expected to persist into
the future.
i. The multiple for transitory earnings component
should approach .
ii. Income (loss) from discontinued operations and
extraordinary gains and losses are nonrecurring itemsnonrecurring items
that are viewed as transitory components of earnings.
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
156
End of Period Stock Price Pi = a + (Xi) + ei
2. For many firms, the earnings multiple
falls well below this theoretical value.
c. A value-irrelevant is unrelated to future free
cash flows and is not relevant to assessing
current share price.
i. Such value-irrelevant earnings components
should carry a multiple of zero.
ii. A change in accounting principles, which gives rise to
a cumulative effect adjustment to income has no
future cash flow consequences and is viewed as value-
irrelevant.
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
157
End of Period Stock Price Pi = a + (Xi) + ei
3. The capital market does not react naivelynaively to
earnings, but instead, it appears to distinguish
among permanent, transitory, and value-
irrelevant earnings components.
C. Permanent, transitory, and valuation-
irrelevant components of earnings
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
158
D. The concept of earnings quality:
1. Quality of earnings measures
how much the profitsprofits companies
publicly report diverge（分歧） from
their true operating earnings.
a. Low quality means the bottom line is
padded with（填补）paper gains.
b. A decline in quality means companies’
reported earnings are less sustainable
than they appear.
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
159
D. The concept of earnings quality:
quality is multifaceted （多方面
的）and there is no consensusno consensus on how to
measure it.
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
160
D. The concept of earnings quality:
3. Earnings are considered to be
high quality when they are
sustainable.
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
161
a. Sustainable earnings are generated from
• repeat customers,
• high quality product that enjoys steady customer
demand based on brand name identity, etc.
D. The concept of earnings quality:
3. Earnings are considered to be high
quality when they are sustainable.
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
162
b. Unsustainable earningsUnsustainable earnings derive from
• gains and losses from debt retirement,
• write-offs of assets from corporate restructuring
and plant closings,
• reduction in discretionary expenditures for
advertising and research and development, etc.
3. Earnings are considered to be high
quality when they are sustainable.
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
D. The concept of earnings quality:
163
4. Earnings quality is also affected by
the
accounting methods chosen by
management to describe routine, ongoing
activities of a company
and by the subjectivity of accounting
estimates.
Sources of Variation in P/E
Multiples
D. The concept of earnings quality:
164
End of Lesson 4
