뗚26뻭ꆡ뗚10웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡomꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡVol126,No1102007쓪ꆡꆡ10퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ벼ꆡ쫵ꆡ뺭ꆡ볃TechnologyEconicsOct1,2007ꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1002-980X(2007)10-0113-07믹폚췁뗘뺭볃톧샭싛뗄췁뗘돶죃뷰퇐뺿훒쿩1,췵병샶1,?ꆡ톫2,붯뚫헽1,십듦쏷1(11낲믕얩튵듳톧맜샭뿆톧톧풺,뫏럊230036;21낲믕쪡닆헾쳼ퟛ뫏뒦,뫏럊230001)ꆡꆡ햪튪:퓚닻쫶췁뗘뺭볃톧샭싛벰뗘볛닢쯣쒣탍뗄믹뒡짏,쳡돶췁뗘돶죃뷰릹돉뗄뿆톧쓚몭,릹퓬돶뿆톧닢쯣췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄쫽톧쒣탍,쪹췁뗘돶죃뷰돉캪릹붨돇쿧뫍킳폫죋폫ퟔ좻뫍킳뗄뺭볃룜룋,듓뛸쳥쿖릫욽폫킧싊ퟮ듳뮯뗄풭퓲,듯떽뿘훆퓶솿췁뗘,췚뻲듦솿췁뗘뗄쒿뗄ꆣ맘볼듊:췁뗘뺭볃톧;샭싛;췁뗘돶죃뷰훐춼럖샠뫅:F3011lꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪횾싫:A1ꆡ맘뫵췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄췁뗘뺭볃톧샭싛틀뻝ꆣ퓚훐맺돇헲훐,틲듦퓚췁뗘맺볒쯹폐좨뗄슢뛏뫍쪹폃헟뛔췁뗘쪹폃좨뗄햼폐,쯹폐좨뇘좻튪쟳111ꆡ쫐뎡릩쟳샭싛퓚뺭볃짏쪵쿖,틲듋,폃뗘떥캻쪹폃맺폐췁뗘뇘탫쿲췁뗘릩쟳럖컶쫇췁뗘뺭볃톧퇐뺿뗄웰뗣뫍훕맺볒붻쓉췁뗘쪹폃좨돶죃뷰ꆣ뗣,뛸췁뗘탨쟳폖쫇췁뗘릩룸뗄웰틲,뫜듳돌뛈짏뛔췁뗘닺좨샭싛튪쟳췁뗘돶죃뷰뇘탫쫇췁뗘쫐뎡폚췁뗘릩룸닺짺ퟅ뻶뚨탔뗄펰쿬ꆣ듓췁뗘릩쟳맘쾵볛룱ꆣ횻폐쪹췁뗘쪹폃좨돶죃뷰쳥쿖뫍랴펳췁뗘쪹살뾴,뇘탫춨맽솽헟뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃,늢춨맽볛룱탅쾢폨폃좨뗄볛횵,닅쓜럻뫏쫐뎡릩쟳맦싉,돤럖쳥쿖뫍놣틔쳥쿖,닅쓜탎돉폐킧탨쟳뫍폐킧릩룸ꆣ췁뗘뗄돶헏맺볒ퟷ캪췁뗘쯹폐헟뗄좨틦,닅쓜랢믓쫐뎡뗄뗷죃쫽솿뫍췁뗘돶죃뷰뛮폫췁뗘릩쟳맘쾵뇤뮯뗄첬쫆뷚ퟷ폃,헦헽쪹췁뗘헢훖쾡좱풴쫜쫐뎡엤훃ꆣ틲쏜쟐쿠맘ꆣ듋,췁뗘닺좨샭싛쫇췁뗘뺭볃톧뗄믹뒡샭싛,췁뗘돶112ꆡ췁뗘닺좨샭싛죃뷰닺짺뗄쪵훊쫇췁뗘닺좨붻틗뗄뷡맻ꆣ쿠뛔폚췁뗘풴뛸퇔,췁뗘닺좨룼쫇튻룶훘튪113ꆡ뗘ퟢ뗘볛샭싛뗄뺭볃튪쯘ꆣ췁뗘뺭볃퓋탐쪵볹뚼쫇틔뻟폐튻뚨닺11311ꆡ뗘ퟢ샭싛좨뗄췁뗘풴캪떥풪뷸탐풴엤훃뗄ꆣ췁뗘닺좨튪뗘ퟢ럖캪뻸뛔뗘ퟢꆢ벶닮뗘ퟢ뫍슢뛏뗘ퟢꆣ뻸쯘뛔폚췁뗘풴엤훃킧싊닺짺횱뷓뗄펰쿬,늢쟒뮹뛔뗘ퟢ폫췁뗘놾짭뗄쳵볾컞맘,뛸벶닮뗘ퟢ뫍슢뛏틽떼ퟅ췁뗘풴엤훃뗄랽쿲ꆣ뗘ퟢ좡뻶폚췁뗘뗄훊솿ힴ뿶,훷튪쫇좡뻶폚췁뗘뗄십뿋쮼쮵ꆰ:췁뗘쯹폐좨뗄잰쳡쫇,튻킩죋슢뛏럊솦뫍캻훃ꆣ십뿋쮼훷틥뗄뗘ퟢ샭싛훘뗣닻쫶쇋얩튻뚨솿뗄췁뗘,냑쯼ퟷ캪업돢웤쯻튻쟐죋뗄횻럾듓튵뗘ퟢ닺짺뗄룹풴ꆢ탎돉쳵볾ꆢ살풴뫍볆솿랽램,뛔ퟔ벺룶죋틢횾뗄쇬폲ꆣꆱ췁뗘쯹폐좨뿉틔듓솽룶랽쏦폚붨훾뗘뛎뫍뿳즽뗘ퟢ좴좱랦뚨솿퇐뺿,뷶횸돶:살샭뷢:뗚튻,램싉틢틥짏뗄췁뗘쯹폐좨,벴췁뗘쯹ꆰ랲쫇폐뗘ퟢ듦퓚뗄뗘랽,뚼폐벶닮뗘ퟢ,뛸쟒헢훖폐헟냑췁뗘떱ퟷퟔ벺뗄닆닺,췁뗘쯹폐헟뛔췁뗘쪵뗘ퟢ뚼ퟱ톭ퟅ뫍얩튵벶닮뗘ퟢ쿠춬뗄맦싉ꆱ[1]ꆣ탐슢뛏,헢훖좨샻쫇램싉뢳폨뗄,쫜떽램싉뗄놣뮤ꆣ쏀맺뺭볃뗘샭톧볒낢샊쯷쫗듎쳡돶돇쫐췁뗘뺺뗚뛾,뺭볃틢틥짏뗄췁뗘쯹폐좨,췁뗘쯹폐헟욾뷨쯻ퟢ쒣탍,뷢뻶쇋돇쫐뗘ퟢ볆쯣뗄샭싛랽램컊쳢ꆣ쯻뛔췁뗘뗄슢뛏듓뛸믱뗃뗄쿠펦뗄뗘ퟢ,뗘ퟢ쫇췁뗘퓚쒣탍훐횸돶,듓쫐훐탄떽붼췢,뗘ퟢ훰붥붵뗍,뗘쯹폐좨퓚뺭볃짏뗄쪵쿖탎쪽ꆣퟢ쟺쿟쫇튻쳵훰붥쿂붵뗄욽뮬쟺쿟,돇쫐뗄폃뗘릦췁뗘닺좨샭싛캪췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄듦퓚쳡릩쇋샭싛쓜틀듎캪짌튵ꆢ뻓힡ꆢ릤튵ꆢ돇쫐뇟풵쟸뫍얩튵쟸ꆣ쫕룥죕웚:2007ꆪ05ꆪ09ퟷ헟볲뷩:훒쿩(1959ꆪ),쓐,낲믕뎲뫾죋,낲믕얩튵듳톧맺췁풴퇐뺿쯹쯹뎤ꆢ맜샭뿆톧톧풺췁뗘풴맜샭쾵훷죎,뷌쫚,쮶쪿짺떼쪦,훷튪듓쫂췁뗘풴맜샭ꆢ췁죀럊솦틔벰짺첬뺭볃톧뗈랽쏦뗄뷌톧폫뿆퇐ꆣ힢:놾컄평낲믕쪡닆헾쳼ꆰ췁뗘돶죃뷰퇐뺿ꆱ뿎쳢ퟩ훺(20061221)113' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚26뻭ꆡ뗚10웚떫쫇,낢샊쯷뺺ퟢ쒣탍쫇퓚샭쿫뗄볙짨쳵볾쿂뗃돶릩룸뻟폐룕탔,탨쟳돉캪췁뗘볛룱뗄훷튪펰쿬틲쯘ꆣ뗄,쪵볊짏쫜훮뛠틲쯘펰쿬,뗘ퟢ쟺쿟쫇돊뻢돝ힴ떫쫇,듓캢맛짏,쒳훖폃춾뗄췁뗘릩룸튪쫜떽맺볒헾뗄ꆣ뺡맜죧듋,쒣탍퓚뷱쳬틀좻뗃떽맣랺펦폃,훐맺닟뗈뗄펰쿬,틲뛸뻟폐튻뚨뗄떯탔ꆣ틲듋,췁뗘돶죃쒿잰뗄돇쫐믹ힼ뗘볛웤쪵뻍쫇튻룶낢샊쯷뺺ퟢ쒣뷰뇘탫튪랴펳췁뗘릩쟳뗄뇤뮯ꆣ탍ꆣퟛ짏쯹쫶,뗘ퟢ뗘볛뗄퇐뺿,늻뷶맘쾵떽얩뗘헷뗘ퟢ쫇좷뚨췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄믹뒡ꆣ퓚컒맺,췁뗘폃볛룱뗄좷뚨,뛸쟒뻶뚨쇋췁뗘돶죃볛룱뗄좷뚨,벴돶죃뷰뗄쪵훊뻍쫇40-70쓪뗘ퟢ뗄놾뮯ꆣ쫗쿈,쯼늻뷶맘쾵떽놻헷뗘얩쏱뗄낲훃ꆢ늹뎥뫍놣헏뗈튻뻸뛔뗘ퟢ샭싛캪췁뗘돶죃뷰볛룱뗄닢쯣뗬뚨쇋믹쾵쇐훘듳컊쳢,뛸쟒맘쾵떽췁뗘돶죃뷰뫏샭럖엤뗄뒡ꆣ쎻폐뗘ퟢ샭싛뛔뗘ퟢ뗄살풴ꆢ탔훊뫍뻶뚨믺훆뇈샽컊쳢ꆣ틲듋,뗘ퟢ뗘볛샭싛쫇탂쪱웚돇쿧뫍킳뷸탐짮죫뗄뚨탔럖컶,췁뗘돶죃뷰볛룱뻍쪧좥쇋뚨랢햹뗄훘듳샭싛ꆣ솿뮯퇐뺿뗄싟벭웰뗣ꆣ웤듎,뗘ퟢ샭싛쫇좷뚨췁뗘114ꆡ쟸캻샭싛돶죃뷰펰쿬틲쯘뗄샭싛틀뻝ꆣ룹뻝벶닮뗘ퟢ샭싛,쟸캻샭싛쫇맘폚죋샠믮뚯뗄뿕볤럖늼벰웤뿕볤돇쫐룷룶뗘뛎뗄뿕볤캻훃,냼삨짌럾랱뮪뛈ꆢ붻춨뇣훐뗄쿠뮥맘쾵뗄톧쮵ꆣ듺뇭탔뗄맅뗤쟸캻샭싛폐췀뷝뛈ꆢ믹뒡짨쪩췪짆돌뛈ꆢ벯뻛돌뛈ꆢ뗘훊쮮컄ힴ뿶ꆢ쓜뗄얩튵쟸캻싛ꆢ캤늮뗄릤튵쟸캻싛ꆢ뿋샯쮹쯾샕뗄뮷뺳쟸캻틲쯘뗈,쫇펰쿬돇쫐벶닮뗘ퟢ뗄뻶뚨탔틲훐탄뗘샭싛뫍쇎쪲뗄쫐뎡쟸캻싛ꆣ쟸캻샭싛캪돇쫐쯘ꆣ틲듋,돇헲벶닮뗘ퟢ탎돉뗄쳵볾쫇돇헲췁뗘쟸췁뗘뗄럖쟸샻폃쳡릩쇋샭싛믹뒡,돇쫐췁뗘럖쟸샻캻뗄폅쇓뫍췁뗘훊솿뗈벶뗄룟뗍ꆣ폃뗄쒣쪽폐좦닣늼뻖쒣쪽(떥훐탄)ꆢ솢쳥늼뻖쒣쪽ꆢ11312ꆡ뗘볛샭싛질탎늼뻖쒣쪽뫍뛠훐탄늼뻖쒣쪽ꆣ룹뻝좦닣늼뻖쒣췁뗘돶죃뷰뻍쫇40ꆫ70쓪뗄췁뗘쪹폃좨볛룱ꆣ쪽,돇쫐췁뗘볛룱듓쫐훐탄떽뇟풵쟸돊쿖욽뮬뗝복틲듋,뗘볛샭싛맘쾵떽췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄좷뚨ꆣ쟷쫆,뛸룹뻝뛠훐탄늼뻖쒣쪽,돇쫐췁뗘볛룱듓쫐훐1)췁뗘볛룱샭싛캪솿뮯췁뗘돶죃뷰쳡릩쇋샭싛탄떽뇟풵쟸늢럇돊쿖욽뮬뗝복,뛸쫇돶쿖벸룶럥횵ꆣ틀뻝ꆣ췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄쓚몭냼삨헦헽뗄뗘ퟢ,벴뻸뛔쟸캻샭싛쫇뮮럖늻춬폃춾췁뗘돶죃뷰뇪ힼ뗄샭뗘ퟢ뫍벶닮뗘ퟢ;췁뗘춶뗄헛뻉;췁뗘춶뗄샻싛틀뻝ꆣ쟸캻샭싛뛔돇쫐훐뗄짌튵ꆢ뻓힡ꆢ릤튵뗈뗄쾢ꆣ췁뗘쪹폃좨돶죃볛룱쫇틔짏죽룶늿럖횮뫍뗄뿕볤엤훃맦싉뷸탐쇋쾵춳뗄퇐뺿,뇣닺짺쇋짌튵폃놾뮯ꆣ췁뗘춶냼삨맺볒춶뫍췁뗘쪹폃헟춶ꆣ뗘ꆢ뻓힡폃뗘뫍릤튵폃뗘뗄돶죃뷰뇪ힼꆣ췁뗘돶죃뷰훐몭룇뗄춶횸맺볒춶ꆣ맺볒뛔췁뗘쟸캻샭싛쫇퇩횤췁뗘돶죃뷰뫏샭폫럱뗄훘튪릤뗄춶횸뗄쫇뛔쫐뗘쟸캻룄짆,냼삨뛔돇쫐믹뒡짨뻟ꆣ룹뻝떥훐탄늼뻖쒣쪽,돇쫐췁뗘볛룱듓쫐훐탄쪩ꆢ쫐헾붨짨ꆢ릫폃짨쪩뗈뗄춶ꆣ헾뢮춶뗄뷡떽뇟풵쟸훰붥뗝복,뛸룹뻝뛠훐탄늼뻖쒣쪽,돇쫐췁맻,룄짆쇋쟸캻쳵볾,벤랢웤쯻탐튵룼뛠폐탎닺뫍뗘볛룱듓쫐훐탄떽뇟풵쟸늢럇돊쿖욽뮬뗝복,뛸쫇컞탎닺퓚헢튻쟸캻뿕볤뗄벯훐춶죋뫍쪹폃,쪹풭돶쿖벸룶럥횵ꆣ폐춶죋뫍벯뻛뗄뷰쪵쿖퓶횵ꆣ퓶횵킧틦폖붫쯦룃115ꆡ뇟볊킧폃샭싛뿕볤뮷뺳뗄쪹폃퓙듎뮯캪뷰ꆣ룹뻝ꆰ쮭춶,쮭뇟볊킧폃퓲쫇횸듓쿻럑튻볾짌욷뗄튻룶뛮췢뗄쫕틦ꆱ뗄풭퓲,맺볒ퟷ캪춶훷쳥펦믱뗃룃췁뗘쫕쫽솿훐쯹믱뗃뗄뛮췢뗄싺ퟣꆣ퓚뇟볊킧폃샭싛펦폃틦,틔놣횤쫐헾붨짨뷰뗄퓙샻폃ꆣ춬쪱,평폚헢샠훐듦퓚솽룶훘튪풭퓲,튻쫇뇟볊킧폃뗝복풭퓲,벴튻춶뗄믘쫕훜웚뎤,뮹뇘탫뾼싇떽춶죫뷰뗄쪱볤훖짌욷뗄쿻럑풽뛠,쓇쎴뛮췢쫽솿뗄쿻럑룸킧폃듸볛횵벴샻쾢ꆣ틲듋,퓚좷뚨돇쫐췁뗘돶죃뷰뇪ힼ쪱,살뗄퓶볓튲풽살풽킡;뛾쫇쿠뗈뇟볊풭퓲,벴횻폐떱뇘탫냑헾뢮퓚돇쫐믹뒡짨쪩ꆢ쫐헾붨짨ꆢ릫폃짨쪩뗈쿻럑헟쪹뮨퓚쯹폐짌욷짏뗄떥캻춶쯹듸살뗄킧폃뗄춶쯹닺짺뗄헽뗄췢늿뺭볃탔쳥쿖돶살,벴췁뗘쿠뗈쪱,닅믡쪹킧폃ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ헢솽룶풭퓲,뛔폚뫏샭돶죃볛룱뇘탫냼삨헾뢮퓚췁뗘짏뗄춶벰웤샻쾢ꆣ좷뚨췁뗘샻폃맦쒣틔벰닺튵늿쏅횮볤췁뗘풴뗄럖캪쇋돤럖쿔뮯췁뗘볛횵,듯떽ퟮ폅엤훃,돶죃뷰펦룃엤맘쾵뻟폐쪵볹탔틢틥ꆣ틲듋,쯼폫췁뗘릩쟳샭싛쫇췁뗘ퟮ병폃춾뗄볛룱ꆣ탎돉쇋뮥늹,쯼뻶뚨쇋췁뗘돶죃탐캪쓜럱랢짺틔벰2)췁뗘볛룱쫜릩쟳맘쾵뗄펰쿬ꆣ췁뗘릩룸퓶췁뗘킧틦쓜럱쪵쿖뫍쪵쿖돌뛈ꆣ볓,탨쟳늻뇤믲복짙,퓲뗘볛쿂붵;췁뗘릩룸복짙,탨116ꆡ췁뗘풴닺볛횵샭싛쟳늻뇤믲퓶볓,퓲뗘볛짏짽ꆣ뫪맛짏,평폚췁뗘ퟔ좻췁뗘풴닺볛횵샭싛,쫇췁뗘풴뺭볃맜샭114' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ믹폚췁뗘뺭볃톧샭싛뗄췁뗘돶죃뷰퇐뺿뗄훘뗣,쪵쿖췁뗘풴닺볛횵쫇췁뗘풴닺쯹죧맻쒳튻췁뗘샻폃랽쪽퓚떱잰쫇뿉탐뗄,쓇쎴헢훖폐헟튪쟳웤쯹폐좨퓚뺭볃짏볓틔쳥쿖뗄뇘좻뷡맻ꆣ췁뗘샻폃튻뚨폐뺭볃킧틦,럱퓲뿏뚨늻쓜듦퓚쿂좥;췁뗘풴닺볛횵샭싛춬만뚨닺뗈닺볛횵샭싛ꋝ짧믡뿉틔뷓쫜(뷓쫜탔),죧맻쒳훖췁뗘샻폃랽쪽쫇늻춬뗄,웤훐ퟮ듳쟸뇰퓚폚만뚨닺볛횵뷶냼삨늻쓜캪짧믡쯹뷓쫜,쓇쎴,헢훖췁뗘샻폃랽쪽뇘좻쪧샍뚯볛횵뫍쾡좱볛횵솽늿럖,뛸췁뗘풴닺볛횵냜ꆣ벴짺닺탔ꆢ낲좫탔ꆢ놣뮤탔ꆢ뿉탐탔뫍뷓쫜탔헢돽쇋냼몬헢솽늿럖횮췢,뮹냼삨짺첬볛횵[2],뛸쟒컥룶쒿뇪릹돉쇋뿉돖탸샻폃뗄믹놾튪쟳,뛸쟒뇘탫퓚쒳훖돌뛈짏뛔쒳훖췁뗘풴뛸퇔,짺첬볛횵풶풶틔헢컥뗣살볬퇩뫍볠뚽췁뗘샻폃ꆣ뎬맽잰솽훖볛횵,횻늻맽평폚샭싛볆쯣짐늻돉쫬틔뿉돖탸췁뗘샻폃맘쾵떽죋샠뗄짺듦뫍랱퇜,쫀벰룃횵뻞듳,죋쏇쓑틔뷓쫜뛸뫶싔,헢훖뫶싔떼훂튻뷧룷맺헾뢮뚼캪횮ퟶ돶쇋늻킸뗄얬솦ꆣ좻뛸,죋쏇훖벫듳듭컳,벴췁뗘풴뗄짺첬볛횵퓚췁뗘풴닺튻랽쏦ힷ쟳뿉돖탸췁뗘샻폃뗄ꆰ쪵쿖ꆱ,쇭튻랽쏦죋욷볛횵훐쎻폐뗃떽쳥쿖,췁뗘풴닺뗄볛횵늹뎥쏇폖늻쓜헦헽쪵쿖샭쿫뗄뿉돖탸췁뗘샻폃ꆣ좫쫀뷧쓑틔쪵쿖,틲뛸돶쿖쇋듳솿췁뗘풴놻컞뎥쪹폃,늢헽쫇퓚ힷ쟳뇆뷼ꆰ뿉돖탸췁뗘샻폃쒿뇪ꆱ뗄뚯첬맽돌퇜짺쇋튻쾵쇐퇏훘뫳맻,죧풴랢햹맽돌훐뗄ꆰ풴훐,좥뫢솿뫍뗷뿘뿉돖탸췁뗘샻폃뗄쓜솦ꆣ틲듋,룷뿕탄뮯ꆱ컊쳢[3]ꆢ맺쏱뺭볃탩볙퓶뎤컊쳢ꆢ뺭볃룜룋맺횻쓜룹뻝맺쟩,훆뚨튻룶췁뗘샻폃쒿뇪,틔놣횤죋뗷뷚쪧뗷컊쳢ꆢ짺첬뮷뺳뛱뮯뗈뗈컊쳢ꆣ샠짧믡뫍뺭볃뗄랢햹뗃틔돖탸ꆣ컒맺늻뷶쫇튻룶죋내헕췁뗘볛룱샭싛,췁뗘볛룱쫇평췁뗘풴볛뿚듳맺,뛸쟒쫇튻룶얩튵듳맺,춬쪱튲쫇튻룶랢햹훐룱뫍췁뗘놾(닺)볛룱솽늿럖릹돉ꆣ틲듋,췁뗘맺볒,틲듋,췁뗘샻폃쒿뇪튻쫇놣뮤룻뗘;뛾쫇놣횤돶죃뷰뇘탫몭룇췁뗘풴볛횵,웤좷뚨뗄틀뻝쫇췁붨짨,죽쫇놣뮤뮷뺳ꆣ[1]뗘풴볛횵샭싛ꆣ쒿잰,쯦ퟅ돇쫐뮯뗄뿬쯙췆뷸,평튪쪵쿖컒맺췁뗘샻폃쒿뇪뇘탫볓잿췁뗘붨짨뫍폚췁뗘돶죃뷰쎻폐뾼싇믲헟뫜짙뾼싇떽췁뗘풴볛놣뮤,웤믹뒡쫇뷰뗄춶죫,튪쟳쫇ꆰ좡횮폚뗘,폃횮횵뗄늹뎥,틲듋췁뗘돉놾욫뗍,떼훂퓚햼폃룻뗘췢캧폚뗘ꆱꆣ틲듋,췁뗘돶죃뷰쫕횧룄룯랽낸뇘탫틔뿉돖삩헅돇쫐뗄춬쪱,돇쫐쓚늿좴퓚짏퇝ꆰ뿕돇볆ꆱ,뛸쟒탸췁뗘샻폃뗄쮼쿫살짨볆ꆣ췁뗘돶죃뷰쫕횧맜샭훆폺퇝폺쇒!평폚뫶쫓쇋뮷뺳돉놾,컒맺돇쫐랢햹ퟟ뛈뇘탫쓜웰떽뛔췁뗘풴뗄쪱뿕엤훃ퟷ폃ꆣ퓚좫맺뗄늻쫇튻쳵풴뷚풼탍뫍뮷뺳폑뫃탍뗀슷,쪹뗃룻랶캧쓚,평폚뚫컷랢햹뗄늻욽뫢탔,췁뗘풴뗄놣뮤뗘햼늹욽뫢돉캪뿚뫅,돇쫐랢햹쇋,얩듥짺첬뮷뺳뛱톹솦볞떽쇋훐컷늿뗘쟸,췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄쫕횧쳥쾵뮯쇋ꆣ쯹틔,췁뗘돶죃뷰뇘탫몭룇췁뗘풴닺볛펦쓜캪헢훖늻욽뫢쪵쿖닆헾틆횧뢶,벴퓚좫맺랶횵,튪볆쯣싌즫GDP,헢쫇쪵쿖죋폫ퟔ좻뫍돇쿧뫍캧쓚캪풴놣뮤쳡릩뷰횧돖ꆣ킳랢햹뗄믹뒡뫍잰쳡ꆣ117ꆡ뿉돖탸췁뗘샻폃샭싛2ꆡ췁뗘돶죃뷰릹돉평폚췁뗘쫇쫀듺쿠뒫뗄죋샠쯹늻쓜돶죃뗄짺듦췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄헦헽쓚몭뻍쫇췁뗘볛횵퓚짧믡맜쳵볾뫍퓙짺닺쳵볾,쯽쫇죋샠짺듦뫍짧믡짺닺믮뚯샭훐뗄쳥쿖,틲듋쪵볊훐,헾뢮늿쏅훆뚨췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄컯훊퓘쳥,뷱쳬뗄췁뗘샻폃뇘붫짮뿌뗘펰쿬떽쏷뇪ힼ뗄쪱뫲,뻍쫇퓚좷뚨캴살튻뚨쓪쿞쓚췁뗘쪹폃쳬ꆣ틲듋,뿉돖탸췁뗘샻폃컊쳢뇣돉캪떱잰캧죆ퟔ좨뗄볛룱ꆣ틲듋쳖싛췁뗘돶죃뷰뇘좻튪듓뗘볛쮵좻뮷뺳뗄ꆰ돖탸쓜솦ꆱ맺볊퇐뺿뗄죈뗣횮튻ꆣ1991웰ꆣ쓪퓚첩맺뻙탐뗄ꆰ랢햹훐맺볒뿉돖탸췁뗘샻폃맜샭211ꆡ쿠맘뗘볛볆쯣쒣탍벰움컶맺볊퇐쳖믡ꆱ뫍1993쓪퓚볓쓃듳뻙탐뗄ꆰ21쫀볍뿉21111ꆡ뗘볛볆쯣쒣탍돖탸췁뗘샻폃맜샭맺볊퇐쳖믡ꆱ짏,쳡돶쇋뿉돖탸췁룹뻝십뿋쮼뗘ퟢ뗘볛샭싛,뗘볛쫇뗘ퟢ뗄놾뗘샻폃뗄5듳쒿뇪:ꋙ췁뗘샻폃랽쪽폐샻폚놣돖뫍뮯,퓲췁뗘돶죃뷰닢쯣쒣탍캪:쳡룟췁뗘뗄짺닺솦(짺닺탔),냼삨얩튵뗄뫍럇얩튵P=a1/(1+r1)+a2/(1+r1)(1+r2)+ꆭ+ai/뗄췁뗘짺닺솦틔벰뮷뺳쏀톧랽쏦뗄킧틦;ꋚ폐샻폚(1+r1)(1+r2)ꆭ(1+ri)ꆡ(i=1,2,3ꆭ,n)(1)붵뗍낲좫럧쿕(낲좫탔),쪹췁뗘닺돶컈뚨;ꋛ놣뮤ퟔ웤훐:aiꆪꆪꆪ뗚i쓪췁뗘뗄뒿쫕틦(뺭볃뗘ퟢ);좻풴뗄잱솦뫍럀횹췁죀폫쮮훊뗄췋뮯(놣뮤탔),riꆪꆪꆪ뗚i쓪췁뗘뗄쫕틦뮹풭샻싊;벴퓚췁뗘샻폃맽돌훐뇘탫놣뮤췁죀폫쮮풴뗄훊폫Pꆪꆪꆪ췁뗘돶죃뷰ꆣ솿,틔릫욽뗘룸폨쿂튻듺;ꋜ뺭볃짏뿉탐(뿉탐탔),떱룷쓪뗄췁뗘뒿쫕틦뫍뮹풭샻싊뻹쿠뗈쪱,폐115' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚26뻭ꆡ뗚10웚쿞쓪웚뗄췁뗘돶죃뷰P=a[1-(1+-nr)]/rꆣ쿞ꆣ틲듋,튲펦뛔듋뷸탐쿠펦뗄탞헽ꆣ평폚ퟚ뗘뗄평폚췁뗘돶죃쓪웚퓚40ꆫ70쓪횮볤,퓚헢쎴뎤돶죃볛룱뗄닮틬뻟쳥쳥쿖퓚펰쿬틲쯘뗄ퟛ뫏럖횵뗄쪱웚쓚,맺볒헾닟ꆢ췁뗘릩탨ힴ뿶ꆢ췁뗘뗄쟸캻뗈짏,틲듋,폐죋냑쪽훐뗄n쳦뮻캪ퟚ뗘뗄펰쿬틲쯘ퟛ틲쯘붫랢짺뫜듳뇤뮯,ퟚ뗘뗄쓪뒿쫕틦붫쯦횮뇤뮯;뫏럖횵횸쫽ꋙ(N),뗃돶췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄닢쯣쒣탍캪:볓횮춨믵엲헍뗄펰쿬,룷쓪뗄뮹풭샻싊튲늻뿉쓜쿠P=bo+b1N+b2N2+b3N3(4)뗈ꆣ틲듋,솽훖쒣탍뇈뷏뛸퇔,잰헟뇈뷏뫏샭,쟒쓜21112ꆡ쒣탍움컶뷏뫃뗘랴펳췁뗘뗄돶죃볛룱ꆣ떫쫇,쒿잰뗄췁뗘돶쒿잰,틔짏벸훖쒣탍퓚컒맺췁뗘돶죃쪵볊릤ퟷ죃뷰쫇튻듎탔붻웫,뛔죴룉쓪뫳뗄췁뗘쫕틦뫍뮹풭훐웰떽쇋튻뚨뗄횸떼ퟷ폃ꆣ떫쯼쏇쫇퓚쳘뚨뗄샺쪷샻싊쫇쓑틔풤닢뗄,쯹틔짏쫶닢쯣쒣탍닙ퟷ뗄쓑뛈뫍짺닺솦쮮욽쳵볾쿂쳡돶뗄,폐웤샺쪷뻖쿞탔,ퟮ훘뇈뷏듳ꆣ튪뗄좱쿝쫇쎻폐몭룇췁뗘풴닺볛횵ꆢ룻뗘붨짨ퟮ퓧뗄돇쫐췁뗘볛룱닢쯣랽램쫇쏀맺뺭볃뗘샭폫놣뮤늹뎥틔벰췁뗘짺첬붨짨뫍놣뮤늹뎥뗈럑폃ꆣ톧볒낢샊쯷뗄돇쫐췁뗘뺺ퟢ쒣탍ꆣ쯻볙짨:돇쫐쫇쯦ퟅ짧믡뺭볃뗄랢햹뫍죋뗘쎬뛜죕쟷볢죱,죋쏇훰떥훐탄뗄,웤쯄훜뗄췁뗘뚼쫇뻹훊뗄;쯹폐뗄릤ퟷ뚼붥죏쪶떽:퓚십뿋쮼뗄뗘볛쒣탍훐,췁뗘뒿쫕틦늻펦벯훐퓚훐탄쟸;췁뗘쫐뎡쫇췪좫뺺헹뗄,퓲뗘ퟢ=릤룃뷶뷧뚨캪췁뗘뗄뺭볃쫕틦,뮹펦룃냼삨췁뗘춶죋릤-춨쟚럑폃-ퟮ뗍짺믮놣헏럑폃,폃쒣탍뇭쫕틦뫍췁뗘붨짨벰놣뮤뗈랽쏦뗄늹뎥ꆣ틲듋,룃쒣쪾캪:탍죧늻볓탞헽뛸폃ퟷ췁뗘돶죃뷰닢쯣쪱,믡쪹죋쏇R(x)=w-tx-zꆣ(2)뛔폚췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄탎돉믺샭뫍헦헽쓚몭닺짺컳뷢,웤훐:R(x)ꆪꆪꆪ뗘ퟢ(뗘볛);췹췹냑췁뗘돶죃뷰뗈춬폚췁뗘뗄뺭볃볛횵뛸뫶싔췁Wꆪꆪꆪ릤죋릤;뗘뗄짺첬뫍풴볛횵ꆣ헽틲캪죧듋,퓬돉쇋컒맺쒿Tꆪꆪꆪ떥캻뻠샫붻춨돉놾;잰췁뗘돶죃뷰웕뇩욫뗍ꆣ웤뫳맻쫇,늹돤뗄룻뗘훊Xꆪꆪꆪ뻠샫돇쫐훐탄뗄뻠샫;솿뗍쿂,췁뗘짺첬뮷뺳죕쟷뛱뮯뗈ꆣZꆪꆪꆪퟮ뗍짺믮놣헏럑폃ꆣ낢샊쯷뗄돇쫐췁뗘뺺ퟢ쒣탍뫍뫳쏦뗄믘맩탞헽(2)쪽뇭쏷,뗘ퟢ솿평쫐훐탄쿲돇쫐뇟풵돊럸짤쒣탍튲늻쓜ힼ좷쳥쿖췁뗘뗄짺첬뫍풴볛횵ꆣ틲ힴ뗝복쟷쫆,틲뛸,뗘볛튲돊쿖돶춬퇹뗄쟷쫆ꆣ뫜쿔듋,퇐뺿췁뗘돶죃뷰릹돉,뒴붨췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄샭쿫닢좻,쒿잰뗄훐맺돇쫐췁뗘벶뇰폫믹ힼ뗘볛뗄뇤뚯쟷쯣쒣탍,캪췁뗘돶죃쪵볹쳡릩샭싛횸떼,쫇냚퓚췁뗘쫆,럻뫏낢샊쯷뺺ퟢ쒣탍ꆣ떫쫇,듓돇쫐훐탄쟸떽뇟뺭볃퇐뺿헟쏦잰뗄훘듳퓰죎ꆣ풵쟸,펰쿬췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄틲쯘늢럇돊뻹쿟탔쮥복,맊212ꆡ췁뗘돶죃뷰릹돉벰닢쯣듋,췁뗘돶죃뷰폐뿉쓜돊럇횱쿟믲쟺쿟뗝복,벴폃낢21211ꆡ췁뗘돶죃뷰릹돉샊쯷뺺ퟢ쒣탍살닢쯣췁뗘돶죃뷰폐튻뚨뗄뻖쿞탔,믹폚췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄췁뗘뺭볃톧샭싛럖컶뫍쿠맘뇘탫폨틔탞헽ꆣ뗘볛쒣탍퇐뺿뿉횪,췁뗘돶죃ퟜ볛뿮늻뷶냼삨췁뗘맺쓚튲퓸폐톧헟횱뷓붨솢췁뗘돶죃뷰뗄닢쯣쒣늹뎥럑ꆢ낲훃늹훺럑ꆢ뗘짏뢽ퟅ컯뫍쟠쏧늹뎥럑ꆢ닰탍ꆣ죧춨맽뛔훘쟬쫐췁뗘돶죃뷰폫돇쫐췁뗘벶뇰뗄잨늹뎥럑ꆢ놻헷뗘얩쏱짧믡놣헏뷰ꆢ얩튵췁뗘뾪랢쿠맘맘쾵퇐뺿,랢쿖믹놾럻뫏Cubic쟺쿟,뻝듋,릹뫍얩듥믹뒡짨쪩붨짨뷰ꆢ솮ퟢ힡랿붨짨뷰ꆢ돇쫐붨돶췁뗘돶죃뷰닢쯣쒣탍(3)ꆣ믹뒡짨쪩붨짨뷰뗈,뛸쟒뮹펦퓶볓룻뗘붨짨폫놣P=bo+b1n+b2n2+b3n3(3)뮤ꆢ짺첬뮷뺳붨짨폫놣뮤뗈늹뎥뷰,쯼쏇몭룇폚췁쪽훐,Pꆪꆪꆪ쒳훖폃춾쒳벶췁뗘뗄돶죃뷰,뗘쯹폐좨쫕틦ꆢ췁뗘춶쫕틦ꆢ췁뗘맜샭쫕틦뫍췁뗘nꆪꆪꆪ쒳벶췁뗘뗄벶뇰횸쫽,b뻹캪뎣쫽(쿂춬)ꆣ붨짨폫놣뮤늹뎥뗈쯄룶랽쏦(춼1)ꆣ웤훐췁뗘쯹폐평폚훐맺돇쫐췁뗘벶뇰돊훐탄좦닣럖늼,쯹틔,좨쫕틦폖냼삨벯쳥췁뗘쯹폐좨쫕틦뫍맺볒췁뗘쯹폐내(3)쪽닢쯣뗄췁뗘돶죃뷰쫇평쫐훐탄쿲뇟풵쟸훰좨쫕틦늹뎥,뛸얩쏱뛔췁뗘뗄뎤웚춶죫펦믱뗃뗄쫕붥뗝복,폫믹ힼ뗘볛믹놾튻훂,폫뻟쳥뗄ퟚ뗘돶죃볛틦폫헾뢮돶죃잰뗄춶죫펦믱뗃뗄쫕죫퓲릹돉쇋췁뗘룱폐튻뚨뗄닮뻠ꆣ쯹틔,쒣탍(3)춬퇹뻟폐튻뚨뗄뻖돶죃뷰뗄춶쫕틦늿럖ꆣ힢:ꋙퟚ뗘틲쯘ퟛ뫏럖횵횸쫽쫇횸퓚돇헲췁뗘뚨벶맽돌훐,캪쇋뮮럖췁뗘뗈벶,탨튪뛔돇쫐췁뗘떥풪(뿉틔쫇맦퓲룱췸떥풪튲뿉틔ퟚ뗘캪떥풪)훊솿틀뻝룸뚨폃춾뷸탐움뚨,틀뻝움뚨떥풪쯹뒦뗄쟸캻ꆢ훜뇟붻춨쳵볾ꆢ믹뒡짨쪩쟩뿶ꆢ뮷뺳ힴ뿶ꆢퟔ좻쳵볾뗈틲쯘뗄뫃뮵내튻뚨뗄맦퓲뢽폚췁뗘떥풪튻뚨뗄럖횵,룃럖횵뗄룟뗍뿉틔랴펳돇쫐췁뗘뗄훊솿뗄폅쇓ꆣ116' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ믹폚췁뗘뺭볃톧샭싛뗄췁뗘돶죃뷰퇐뺿춼1ꆡ췁뗘돶죃뷰릹돉틲쯘벰틲ퟓ쳥쾵쪾틢춼ꆡꆡ1)췁뗘쯹폐좨쫕틦ꆣ돶죃췁뗘살풴폚헷폃얩뗘쫐퓶솿췁뗘훐,폐솽샠춶,튻샠쫇헾뢮뛔탂퓶돇쫐뛸퓶볓뗄퓶솿늿럖뫍돇쫐쓚늿췚잱ꆢ뒢놸뗄듦솿늿췁뗘쟸캻룄짆,냼삨뛔돇쫐믹뒡짨쪩ꆢ쫐헾붨짨ꆢ릫럖ꆣ퓶솿늿럖훷튪횸돇헲삩햹뗄췁뗘쫇춨맽헷폃얩폃짨쪩뗈뗄춶ꆣ춶훷쳥쫇헾뢮벰쿠맘늿쏅,뿍폃뗘캪맺볒쯹폐뗄췁뗘,늢붫튻뚨쓪쿞뗄쪹폃좨쳥쫇믹뒡짨쪩ꆢ쫐헾짨쪩뫍릫폃짨쪩뗈ꆣ헢샠춶죃폫췁뗘쪹폃헟ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,췁뗘쯹폐쫕틦훷믮뚯틲훜웚뎤ꆢ뫄뛠ꆢ쫕틦뗍쟒뻟폐릫릲탔뫍췢늿튪쫇횸얩듥벯쳥벰얩쏱룶죋퓚헷뗘맽돌훐틲즥쪧췁탔,틲듋럇헾뢮늿쏅컞램뷸탐뛸뇘탫평헾뢮돐떣;쇭뗘쯹폐좨폫쪹폃좨뛸펦믱뗃뗄늹뎥쫕틦ꆣ듦솿늿럖튻샠쫇췁뗘놻헷폃횮잰,얩쏱퓚쪹폃맽돌훐뛔췁뗘쫇돇쫐쓚늿맺폐췁뗘뺭닰잨헻샭쫕릺뒢놸뫳퓙죃폫뷸탐뗄춶죫,헢훖춶죫늻쫇튻듎탔춶죫,쯼쫇얩뗘췁뗘쪹폃헟,웤훐췁뗘쯹폐좨쫕틦펦쳥쿖캪맺볒췁풴닺뗄볛횵,쓽뻛ퟅ얩쏱ퟦퟦ놲놲뗄탄톪뫍몹쮮!뗘쯹폐좨쫕틦ꆣ췁뗘쯹폐헟욾뷨췁뗘쯹폐좨,듓햼내헕춶샭싛,폐춶죫뇘좻튪폐쫕틦,헢훖쫕틦캪죕폐ꆢ쪹폃뫍뒦럖웤췁뗘닺훐럖쿭쫕틦ꆣ틲듋,췁뗘뫳뗄췁뗘쪹폃헟쯹펵폐,쯹틔,췁뗘돶죃뷰뇘탫튪뾼돶죃뷰훐뗄췁뗘쯹폐좨쫕틦늿럖뿉틔춨맽(5)쪽살싇헢훖쫕틦뗄헛쿖,벴튪뚯폃튻늿럖췁뗘돶죃뷰살볆쯣ꆣ벴:늹뎥춶듸살뗄쫕틦ꆣ틲듋,췁뗘돶죃뷰훐뗄췁뗘rac1춶쫕틦늿럖늹뎥캪:Poc=[1-)ia(1n](5-ia)Pgt=Ccstrꇁ(1+R)+Cf(1+Rf)(6)웤훐:racꆪꆪꆪ췁뗘쓪뒿쫕틦(뻸뛔뗘ퟢ폫벶닮뗘웤훐:Pgtꆪꆪꆪ췁뗘돶죃뷰훐ퟜ춶늿럖늹뎥;ퟢ횮뫍);Ccstrꆪꆪꆪ헾뢮퓚돶죃잰뗄ퟜ춶죫;iaꆪꆪꆪ뮹풭샻싊;Rꆪꆪꆪ헾뢮춶죫뷰뗄쯹튪쟳샻죳싊;nꆪꆪꆪ췁뗘뗄돶죃쓪쿞;Crꆪꆪꆪ얩쏱퓚짺닺맽돌훐뗄뎤웚춶죫;Pocꆪꆪꆪ돶죃뷰훐췁뗘쯹폐좨쫕틦늿럖ꋙꆣRfꆪꆪꆪ얩쏱뎤웚춶죫쯹튪쟳뗄샻죳싊ꆣ2)췁뗘춶쫕틦ꆣꋙ퓶솿췁뗘춶쫕틦ꆣ퓚돇ꋚ듦솿췁뗘춶쫕틦ꆣ듦솿췁뗘돶죃뷰훐뗄춶쫕힢:ꋙ캪쇋릫쪽볲뮯컒쏇볙뚨쓪뒿쫕틦폫뮹풭샻싊늻뇤,쿂춬ꆣ117' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚26뻭ꆡ뗚10웚틦늹뎥훷튪쫇헾뢮늿쏅뗄춶죫쯹펦믱쫕틦뗄쳹쿖ꆣ웤훐:Peꆪꆪꆪ췁뗘돶죃뷰훐뛔폚췁뗘훘붨폫놣뿉틔내헕헽뎣뗄춶쫕틦맘쾵살뾼싇,벴헾뢮뗄춶뮤늹뎥늿럖;죫내튻뚨뗄뷰샻죳싊춨맽(7)쪽뗃떽쳥쿖ꆣCeꆪꆪꆪ캪놣뮤믲훘붨췁뗘뛸쎿쓪춶죫뗄Pg=Ccstrꇁ(1+R)(7)돉놾;웤훐:Pgꆪꆪꆪ췁뗘돶죃뷰훐헾뢮춶늿럖늹뎥;ieꆪꆪꆪ헛쿖싊;Ccstrꆪꆪꆪ헾뢮퓚돶죃잰뗄ퟜ춶죫;nꆪꆪꆪ믖뢴믲훘붨쯰쪧늿럖쯹탨뗄쪱볤ꆣRꆪꆪꆪ헾뢮춶죫뷰뗄샻죳싊ꆣ21212ꆡ췁뗘돶죃뷰닢쯣3)췁뗘맜샭킧틦ꆣ췁뗘맜샭쫇횸맺볒ퟛ뫏퓋폃룹뻝틔짏럖컶,췁뗘돶죃뷰펦룃뗈폚룷릹돉틲탐헾ꆢ뺭볃ꆢ램싉ꆢ벼쫵뗈쫖뛎,캪캬뮤췁뗘쯹폐훆,쯘럖횵횮뫍ꆣ뗷헻췁뗘맘쾵,뫏샭ퟩ횯췁뗘샻폃,뛸뷸탐뗄볆뮮ꆢ1)퓶솿췁뗘돶죃뷰ퟩ횯ꆢ횸믓ꆢ킭뗷ꆢ뿘훆뗈ퟛ뫏탔믮뚯ꆣ웤놾훊쫇뛔P1=Poc+Pgt+Pm+Pe(10)췁뗘뗄탐헾맜샭,웤뿍쳥쫇췁뗘풴,웤폐킧탔퓚폚웤훐:P1ꆪꆪꆪ퓶솿췁뗘돶죃뷰ퟜ볛;돤럖샻폃폐쿞뗄췁뗘풴ꆣPocꆪꆪꆪ췁뗘쯹폐좨쫕틦늹뎥;튻쟐맜샭믮뚯뚼쫇틔쳡룟킧틦캪쒿뗄뗄ꆣ뷸탐Pgtꆪꆪꆪ퓶솿췁뗘춶쫕틦늹뎥;맜샭믮뚯퓚폚맜샭쓜릻냑룷훖럖즢뗄죋ꆢ닆ꆢ컯뗈튪Pmꆪꆪꆪ췁뗘맜샭쫕틦늹뎥;쯘폐믺뗘뷡뫏웰살,탎돉튻룶헻쳥,닺짺헻쳥듳폚룷Peꆪꆪꆪ췁뗘폃뫳짺첬릦쓜쯰쪧늹뎥ꆣ룶늿럖횮뫍뗄릦쓜,뒴퓬룼듳뗄킧틦ꆣ췁뗘맜샭뗄2)듦솿췁뗘돶죃뷰쒿뗄춬퇹퓚폚킧틦ꆣ췁뗘맜샭킧틦쫇횸헾뢮췁뗘맜P2=Poc+Pg+Pm(11)샭늿쏅퓚뛔췁뗘뷸탐맜샭쪱닺짺뗄킧틦ꆣ컒맺췁뗘웤훐:P2ꆪꆪꆪ듦솿췁뗘돶죃뷰ퟜ볛;맜샭쓚죝냼삨ퟩ횯췁뗘솢램뫍훆뚨ퟛ뫏탔췁뗘헾Pocꆪꆪꆪ췁뗘쯹폐좨쫕틦늹뎥;닟;뇠훆췁뗘샻폃ퟜ쳥맦뮮폫볆뮮;룻뗘놣뮤폫얩뗘Pgꆪꆪꆪ듦솿췁뗘춶쫕틦늹뎥;폃춾맜훆ꆣ뗘벮맜샭;췁뗘샻폃맜샭뗈ꆣ헢킩맜샭Pmꆪꆪꆪ췁뗘맜샭쫕틦늹뎥ꆣ믮뚯뗄돶랢뗣뚼쫇캪쇋벯풼폐킧뗘샻폃췁뗘,퓚폐쿞뗄췁뗘짏ힷ쟳뺭볃ꆢ짧믡ꆢ짺첬킧틦뗄ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ췁3ꆡ뷡싛폫붨틩뗘맜샭킧틦뿉틔폃췁뗘맜샭킧틦쾵쫽살뷸탐솿뮯,311ꆡ췁뗘돶죃튪틔돇쿧뫍킳뫍죋폫ퟔ좻뫍킳캪룹웤퓚돶죃뷰훐뗄쳥쿖뿉폃(8)쪽볆쯣:놾돶랢뗣뫍맩쯞Pm=ꇆBi(1+Ri)(8)1)췁뗘돶죃뷰튪몭룇놻헷뗘얩쏱뗄늹뎥럑폃ꆣi웤훐뻝퇐뺿,얩뗘놾짭볛룱폐쿂쏦벸룶늿럖릹돉:ꋙ놻헷:Pmꆪꆪꆪ돶죃뷰훐췁뗘맜샭ퟜ킧틦늿럖늹뎥;Biꆪꆪꆪ췁뗘맜샭훐룷쿮릤ퟷ쯹뫄럑뗄돉놾폃늿럖뗄늹뎥:냼삨췁뗘쯹폐좨늹뎥ꆢ췁뗘쪹폃좨늹;R뎥뫍뗘짏쟠쏧벰뢽쫴컯뗈늹뎥뗈;ꋚ췁뗘춶샻쾢iꆪꆪꆪ췁뗘맜샭룷쿮릤ퟷ뗄킧틦쾵쫽ꆣ4)췁뗘붨짨폫놣뮤늹뎥ꆣ췁뗘뗄짺첬릦쓜훷튪뗄늹뎥:훷튪쫇얩쏱퓚뺭펪췁뗘맽돌훐,뎤웚뛔췁뗘쳥쿖퓚얩폃뗘떱훐,뛸돇쫐퓶솿폃뗘퓚돶죃횮잰뇘뷸탐쇋믮샍뚯뫍컯뮯샍뚯뗄춶죫,룄뇤쇋췁죀뗄컯좻튪랢짺얩폃뗘뗄폃ꆣ퓚얩폃뗘캪럇얩붨짨폃샭ꆢ뮯톧뫍짺컯톧쳘헷,쪹횮닺짺쇋죋릤럊솦뫍뺭볃뗘뫳럊솦,쪹췁뗘뻟폐쇋닺쳘탔,펦뛔듋뷸탐늹뎥;ꋛ,룃췁뗘풭쿈뗄짺첬볛뫍짺첬킧폃뇘붫쪧좥ꆣ틲듋,릫릲맜샭늿쏅캪쇋쪹짧믡뗄ퟜ쳥뢣샻늻훂붵폐몦믲늻솼펰쿬늹뎥:훷튪헫뛔놻헷폃뗘뿩쪣폠뗄뗍뇘붫쇭뇙뺶,훘탂춶죫,퓙퓬쿠펦뗄쳦듺짺첬쾵럇헷뗘,틲붨짨믲릫릲쿮쒿뛔쪣폠늿럖퓬돉뗄쯰몦,춳틔벰뺭펪쯰쪧벰웤쯻쿠맘쯰쪧뗄늹뎥;ꋜ룉죅쯰쪧,틔늹뎥짺첬쯰쪧ꆣ샽죧:헾뢮쎿쓪뚼튪듓닆헾쫕죫훐늦돶듳솿뷰뷸탐췁뗘뢴뿑ꆢ뾪랢ꆢ헻샭ꆢ훎즳ꆢ늹뎥:놻헷뗘쯹폐헟믲돐ퟢ죋틲캪늻뚯닺좫늿믲믹훎컛ꆢ췋룻뮹쇖뗈췁뗘붨짨폫놣뮤믮뚯ꆣ틲듋,췁뗘놾헷폃,웤짺믮훈탲놻듲싒,퓬돉룷훖믬싒뛸뛮췢퓶돶죃뷰훐뇘탫튪몭룇헢늿럖뷰ꆣ뿉폃(9)쪽살솿볓뗄돉놾믲뾪횧뗄늹뎥;ꋝ웤쯻:죧훘탂낲훃뗄삧쓑뮯닢쯣ꆣ늹뎥뗈ꆣ[4]얩뗘놾짭볛룱펦ퟷ캪뚯폃돶죃뷰늹뎥쪧C뗘얩쏱쯰쪧뗄틀뻝ꆣe1Pe=[1-ie(1+n](9)ie)2)췁뗘돶죃뷰뮹튪몭룇놻헷뗘얩쏱뗄낲훃럑폃ꆣ훐맺럹풱쇉삫,룷뗘쏱ퟥ럧쟩뫍뺭볃랢햹쮮욽118' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ믹폚췁뗘뺭볃톧샭싛뗄췁뗘돶죃뷰퇐뺿닮뻠탼쫢,틲듋헷뗘낲훃랽쪽늻튻ꆣ맩쓉웰살,듳풼폃춬샠췁뗘,틲캪헷뗘뫳뗄폃춾늻춬,얩쏱뗄낲훃늹폐6훖랽쪽,벴놣쿕낲훃ꆢ뒴튵낲훃ꆰꆢ놣좨ꆱ낲훃ꆢ뻍뎥뇪ힼ탼쫢,쎻폐쿭쫜ꆰ맺쏱듽폶ꆱ[5]ꆣ틲듋,룄룯튵낲훃ꆢ믵뇒낲훃뫍웤쯻낲훃뗈ꆣ[4]쯹틔,췁뗘돶죃뗄랽쿲쫇,컞싛쫇릫틦탔폃뗘ꆢ맺볒훘뗣쿮쒿폃뗘,뷰펦낲업ퟣ릻뗄뷰,붨솢쪧뗘얩쏱낲훃뷰ꆣ헢뮹쫇뺭펪탔쿮쒿폃뗘,웤늹뎥낲훃펦튻쫓춬죊ꆣ뻟쫇샻맺샻쏱뗄뗂헾릤돌,쫇붨짨짧믡훷틥뫍킳짧믡,쳥ퟶ램쫇,춨맽맺볒닆헾늿쏅짨솢쏅헋뮧,붨솢췁쪵쿖돇쿧춳돯랢햹뗄햽싔뻙듫ꆣ뗘헷폃늹뎥낲훃믹뷰ꆣ벴닆헾늿쏅뚯풱튻늿럖뺭펪3)췁뗘돶죃뷰튪캪붨솢룻뗘놣뮤뫍짺첬놣뮤늹탔쿮쒿폃뗘뗄췁뗘돶죃뷰붨솢헷뗘믹뷰,퓙춨맽뎥믺훆쳡릩뷰뒢놸ꆣ붨틩컒맺붨솢죽듳놣헏믺틆횧뢶룸맺볒훘뗣붨짨쿮쒿폃뗘믲릫틦탔쿮쒿폃뗘훆:튻쫇붨솢룻뗘놣뮤늹뎥믺훆,튪폐맺볒닣쏦뫍뗘뗄늹뎥낲훃,듓뛸쪵쿖헷뗘맽돌훐뗄ꆰ맺쏱듽폶ꆱ풭랽닣쏦,맺볒닣쏦뻍쫇춨맽쮰쫕뫍닆헾틆횧뢶뗈퓲ꆣ쫖뛎,볓듳뛔훐늿쪡럝놣뮤룻뗘뗄늹뎥솦뛈,틔쳥쿖췁뗘돶죃뷰펦룃내헕췁뗘ퟮ쫊틋뗄폃춾좷뚨,릫욽뫍뻹뫢,웤훐튻늿럖뿉틔뚯폃짏뷉훐퇫닆헾뗄틔쪵쿖킧싊ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ뻟쳥붲뻍쫇,컞싛췁뗘뗄쪵볊췁뗘돶죃뷰;뗘랽닣쏦뻍쫇돇쫐튪붨솢룻뗘놣뮤믹폃춾,뻹펦내헕움맀뗄ퟮ병폃춾돶죃,틲듋,췁뗘돶뷰,쎿쓪뛔쾽쟸얩듥놣뮤룻뗘뗄쿘쿧룸폨늹뎥,웤훐죃뷰튲펦내ퟮ병폃춾닢쯣ꆣ튲뿉틔뚯폃늿럖췁뗘돶죃뷰;뛾쫇붨솢돇헲붨짨폃313ꆡ뿘훆퓶솿췁뗘,췚뻲듦솿췁뗘뗘삩햹뫍얩듥뻓쏱뗣쯵복맒릳늹뎥믺훆,벴내헕맺뇈뷏(10)쪽뫍(11)쪽,뿉틔랢쿖:Pgt>Pg,쟒랢[2004]28뫅컄볾뺫짱,튪붨솢돇헲붨짨폃뗘삩햹Pe>0,벴샭싛짏붲,펦룃쫇P1>P2,튲뻍쫇쮵퓶솿뫍얩듥뻓쏱뗣쯵복맒릳훆뛈,떫ꆰ맒릳훆뛈ꆱ뇘탫튪췁뗘돶죃뷰ퟜ뛮듳폚듦솿췁뗘ꆣ좻뛸,쿖쪵좴잡잡뺭볃늹뎥ퟷ캪횧독ꆣ붨틩맺볒뫍뗘랽펦룃냑헢늿럖쿠랴,췹췹쫇돇쫐듦솿췁뗘돶죃뷰뛮풶풶룟폚퓶솿,횧돶쇐죫풤쯣,뻟쳥펦듓췁뗘돶죃뷰훐뮮돶;죽쫇붨풭틲쫇퓚돇쫐췁뗘돶죃맽돌훐,죋쏇뛔폚듦솿뫍퓶솢짺첬놣뮤늹뎥믺훆,췁뗘돶죃뷰늿럖훷튪폃폚헷솿췁뗘뗄뚨볛닉폃쇋탞헽잰뗄쒣탍,췁뗘돶죃뷰훐폃룻뗘,믲헟쫇틲췁뗘붨짨뗈뛸뛔훜뇟짺첬뮷뺳퓬뫶싔쇋퓶솿췁뗘뗄풴닺볛횵뫍짺첬볛횵뗈,헢돉웆뮵뫳탨튪탞뢴ꆢ퓙퓬뗄뷰늹뎥ꆣ뻍듙쪹췁뗘쪹폃헟룼풸틢톡퓱퓶솿췁뗘,떼훂돇쫐312ꆡ췁뗘돶죃뷰좷뚨튪쳥쿖릫욽폫킧싊ퟮ듳뮯풭컞뷚훆췢캧삩헅,쟖햼듳솿룻뗘,춬쪱돇쫐쓚늿췁뗘퓲듳솿쿐훃,뒦폚뗍킧샻폃ힴ첬ꆣ쯹틔,붨틩퓶솿췁뗘쿖탐뗄얩뗘헷폃낲훃늹뎥뇪ힼ쫇틀뻝헷뗘폃춾돶죃뷰닢쯣쪱,튪훰붥쳡룟(10)쪽뗄Pgt뫍Pe,쪵쿖살좷뚨,쿔좻쎻폐쳥쿖ꆰ맺쏱듽폶ꆱ뗄풭퓲ꆣ죧릫틦폃뺭볃룜룋웈쪹폃뗘헟ퟟ쓚몭췚잱뗄뗀슷ꆣ탔쿮쒿뫍믹뒡짨쪩붨짨쿮쒿뗈,폈웤쫇뗘랽헾뢮훘뗣쿮쒿닎뾼컄쿗,폫웤쯻쿮쒿쿠뇈,헷뗘늹뎥럑폃쏷쿔욫뗍,폐뗄짵훁뗍폚램뚨뇪ힼꆣ죧붨룟쯙릫슷헷뗘,웤늹[1]훒쿩1췁뗘뺭볃톧[M]1뫏럊:낲믕죋쏱돶냦짧,20011뎥럑횻폐9ꆫ12췲풪/hm2,뛸춬웚폃폚웤쯻붨짨쿮[2]샮뷰닽,붪컄살,뷹샖즽1짺첬볛횵싛[M]1훘쟬:훘쟬듳톧돶냦짧,19981쒿헷폃뗄춬샠췁뗘,늹뎥럑좴룟듯벸쪮췲풪/hm2,[3]샮뷰닽1풴뺭볃탂싛[M]1훘쟬:훘쟬듳톧돶냦짧,19951폐뗄짵훁뎬맽150췲풪/hm2ꆣ퓚맺췢,붨짨룟쯙릫[4]훒쿩,샮톧쏷,훬쇖1싛얩뗘헷폃뗄뺭볃늹뎥폫쪧뗘얩쏱뗄낲훃[J]1얩튵뺭볃컊쳢,2004(12):55-581슷뗄췁뗘좡뗃돉놾튻냣햼릤돌ퟜ춶뗄50%ꆫ[5]훒쿩1싛훐맺헷뗘훆뛈[J]1낲믕얩튵듳톧톧놨:짧믡뿆톧냦,2005(6):17-22160%,뛸훐맺횻햼10%ꆫ15%ꆣ헢퇹,춬쪱ꆢ춬뗘헷StudyonLandGrantFeebasedontheTheoryofLandEconomicsYUZhong2xiang1,WANG1Jia2li,SHAOXun2,JIANGDong2zheng1,MACun2ming1(11DepartmentofLandResourceManagement,AnhuiAgriculturalUniversity,Hefei230036,China;21SynthesizedPlace,AnhuiProvincialFinanceDepartment,Hefei230031,China)Abstract:Thescientificcomponentsoflandgrantfeewereproposedanditsscientificmeasuringmodelswerealsomadebasedonlandeconom2icstheoryandlandpricemodel,whichmakelandgrantfeebetheeconomiclevelofconstructingtheharmonybetweenurbanandrural,alsohu2manandnature1Thusmanifeststhemaximizationprincipleoffairandefficiencytocontroltheincreasinglandandtoexcavatethestorageland1Keywords:landeconomics;theory;landgrantfee119' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
