뗚15뻭뗚2웚1999쓪6퓂ꆡꆡꆡ쳬ꆡ뷲ꆡ샭ꆡ릤ꆡ톧ꆡ풺ꆡ톧ꆡ놨JOURNALOFTIANJININSTITUTEOFTECHNOLOGYꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1004-2261(1999)02-088-06럧쿕뻶닟뗄킧펦-탐캪뻶닟쒣탍Ξ틼쇖,돂캰ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ돂킡뒨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ(쳬뷲샭릤톧풺ꆡ쳬뷲300191)ꆡꆡꆡꆡ(훐맺몣퇳쪯폍ퟪ뺮ퟜ릫쮾ꆡ쳬뷲300452)햪튪:놾컄춨맽뛔럧쿕킧펦벰믺훆뗄쒣쓢,쳡릩쇋튻룶붫샭싛랽램폫뻶닟헟탐캪쿠뷡뫏뗄럧쿕뻶닟탂랽램.맘볼듊:럧쿕;럧쿕킧펦;뻶닟헟탐캪;뻶닟랽램;쒣쓢;럧쿕맜샭훐춼럖샠뫅:C934ꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:AEffectofRiskManagement-ActionDecisionModelYINꆡYilinꆡCHENWeikeꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡCHENXiaochuanꆡꆡꆡ(TianjinInstituteofTechnology(,China)Tianjin300191,China)Abstract:Throughthesimulationofriskeffectanditsworkingmechanism,ariskdecisionmodelwhichcombinetheanalyticaltheorywiththepolicymakerꇤ:Risk;Riskeffect;Policymakerꇤsbehavior;Simulation;RiskManagement1ꆡ럧쿕킧펦믺훆벰웤쒣쓢럧쿕킧펦쫇럧쿕쫂볾놾짭뗄쳘헷뫍쓚퓚믺훆쯹닺짺뗄킧맻,죏쪶헢훖킧펦쫇ퟷ돶헽좷뻶닟뗄훘튪쳵볾,맽좥샭싛퇐뺿쎻폐퓚죏쪶럧쿕쳘헷뗄믹뒡짏뷸튻늽퇐뺿웤킧펦.쿖퓚컒쏇춨맽뛔럧쿕쳘헷뗄좫쏦럖컶,ퟜ뷡돶럧쿕뗄훷튪킧펦폐틔쿂죽훖:ꆡ폕믳킧펦럧쿕뗄늻좷뚨탔,쮫훘탔벰잱퓚탔룸탭뛠뻶닟헟믡듸살폕믳솦.뻞듳뗄럧쿕췹췹믡냩쯦ퟅ룟뛮뗄잱퓚샻죳,죧맻쎻폐헢훖틲잱퓚샻틦뛸닺짺뗄폕믳솦,뫜쓑쿫쿱믡폐뻶닟헟룊풸좥돐쫜뒿쯰쪧뗄럧쿕.럧쿕폕믳킧펦뿉틔놻뚨틥캪:럧쿕샻틦ퟷ캪튻훖췢늿듌벤쪹죋쏇쏈랢쇋쒳훖뚯믺,뷸뛸ퟷ돶쒳훖톡퓱늢떼훂탐캪(쎰쿕탐캪)뗄랢짺.떱좻럧쿕샻틦쫇튻훖ퟛ뫏탔뗄샻틦,쯼늢늻쫇좷뚨뗄샻틦,뛸쫇튻훖뿉쓜뗄샻틦,캴살뗄샻틦,횻폐퓚럧쿕뷡맻돶쿖뫳닅쓜횪뗀쫇럱헦헽믱뗃헢훖샻틦,헢훖쯆뫵뾴뗃볻뛸캴떽쫖뗄샻틦뛔죎뫎죋뚼폐늻춬돌뛈뗄폕믳솦.럧쿕폕믳킧펦돌뛈뗄듳킡(뿉볲돆캪럧쿕폕믳뛈,폃DRA뇭쪾),훷튪뻶뚨폚쿂쇐폕믳틲쯘:1)럧쿕쫂볾듸살뗄잱퓚랢햹믺믡뫍/믲?샻믺믡(A1)2)럧쿕돉놾킡폚럧쿕샻틦뗄믺믡폫듳킡(A2)3)럧쿕놻랢쿖뫍쪶뇰뗄쓑뛈폫돌뛈(A3)4)럧쿕쫂볾벤랢뻶닟헟뗄잱쓜뒴퓬탔뫍돉릦폻췻뗄돌뛈(A4)짏쫶쯄훖틲쯘훐,A1,A2훷튪폫럧쿕쫂볾놾짭폐맘,뛸A3,A4퓲훷튪폫뻶닟헟룶죋폐맘.Ξ쫕룥죕웚:1999-01-12뗚튻ퟷ헟:틼쇖(1957-),쓐,뢱뷌쫚' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚2웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ틼쇖:럧쿕뻶닟뗄킧펦-탐캪뻶닟쒣탍89틲듋럧쿕폕믳킧펦돌뛈(믲돆럧쿕폕믳뛈DRA)뗄듳킡,늢늻떥뒿좡뻶폚뒫춳틢틥짏뗄럧쿕샻틦헢튻틲쯘,뛸쫇튻쾵쇐틲쯘뗄뢴뫏몯쫽,뿉폃쿂쪽뇭쪾:DRA=fA1,A2,A3,A4(1)ꆡꆡ헢킩폕믳틲쯘뗄잿죵돌뛈뫍늻춬뗄ퟩ뫏랽쪽,뻶뚨쇋럧쿕폕믳뛈뗄탔훊뫍듳킡죧:A1ꇼ,A2ꇼ,A3ꇼ,A4ꇼ,퓲DRA뻍쟷쿲폚ퟮ듳;ꆡꆡA1ꇽ,A2ꇽ,A3ꇽ,A4ꇽ,퓲DRA뻍쟷쿲폚ퟮ킡.벴Max[DRA]=fMaxA1,MaxA2,MaxA3,MaxA4(2)ꆡꆡMin[DRA]=fMinA1,MinA2,MinA3,MinA4(3)ꆡꆡ럧쿕폕믳뛈,늻뷶믡펰쿬죋쏇뛔럧쿕뗄톡퓱뫍톡퓱뫳탐캪뚯믺뗄잿죵,춬쪱튲믡닺짺짧믡킧펦,샽죧뛔쒳튻붨훾짌욷쫐뎡뗄뾪랢,죧맻헢훖짌욷쫐뎡뗄럧쿕폕믳뛈듳,룃쫐뎡튻뚨믡컼틽탭뛠뺺헹뛔쫖.튻냣쮵살,럧쿕폕믳풽듳,퓚폫횮폐맘뗄쫐뎡훐,럧쿕뗄톡퓱뺺헹뫍뺭펪뺺헹뗄돌뛈뻍풽벤쇒,랴횮퓲뇈뷏욽뮺.ꆡ풼쫸킧펦럧쿕풼쫸킧펦뿉틔놻뚨틥캪:떱죋쏇쫕떽럧쿕쫂볾뿉쓜뗄쯰쪧믲캣쿕탅뫅뗄듌벤뫳,쯹ퟷ돶뗄캪쇋믘뇜믲뗖뾹쯰쪧뫍캣쿕뗄톡퓱틔벰뷸뛸닉좡뗄믘뇜탐캪.튻냣뗘쮵,럧쿕틲쯘쯹닺짺뗄췾짣ꆢ틖훆뫍ퟨ낭ퟷ폃뻍쫇럧쿕뗄풼쫸킧펦.춬럧쿕폕믳킧펦튻퇹,릹돉럧쿕풼쫸킧펦뗄ퟨ낭탔틲쯘튻냣늻쫇떥튻뗄,뛸쫇뛠풪뗄,뛠닣듎뗄,늢뻟폐벯뫏탔폫쾵춳탔뗄쳘뗣.룃ퟨ낭탔틲쯘뿉쓜살ퟔ훷쳥뗄췢늿,벴췢늿풼쫸,죧뛔폚쿮쒿맜샭헟살쮵,쿳ퟔ좻퓖몦뗄랢짺,맺볊헾훎뺭볃탎쫆뗄뇤뮯ꆢ맺쓚짧믡뺭볃헾닟뗄뇤뮯ꆢ쫐뎡뺺헹돌뛈뗄볓뻧뗈;뛸폐킩퓲뿉쓜살ퟔ폚훷쳥쓚늿,벴쓚늿풼쫸,죧맜샭쪧컳ꆢ뻶닟쪧컳ꆢ횰릤쟩탷늨뚯뗈.럧쿕풼쫸킧펦돌뛈뗄듳킡(뿉볲돆캪럧쿕풼쫸뛈,폃DRC뇭쪾),훷튪좡뻶폚쿂쇐풼쫸틲쯘:1)럧쿕쫂볾뢺욫샫돶쿖뗄룅싊믲욵싊(C1)2)럧쿕뷡맻퓬돉뗄쯰몦돌뛈(C2)3)럧쿕럖컶폫맜샭뗄춶죫돉놾듳킡벰웤뇤뚯럹뛈(C3)4)럧쿕쫂볾뢺욫샫뷡맻뗄뛠퇹탔(C4)럧쿕풼쫸뛈(DRC)뗄듳킡좡뻶폚짏쫶벸훖틲쯘뗄뇭쿖돌뛈ꆢ듳킡벰웤닺짺뗄늻춬ퟩ뫏랽쪽,뿉폃쿂쪽뇭쪾:DRC=fC1,C2,C3,C4(4)춬퇹뗘,죴ꆡC1ꇼ,C2ꇼ,C3ꇼ,C4ꇼ,퓲DRC뻍쟷쿲폚ퟮ듳;ꆡꆡꆡꆡC1ꇽ,C2ꇽ,C3ꇽ,C4ꇽ,퓲DRC뻍쟷쿲폚ퟮ킡;벴Max[DRA]=fMaxC1,MaxC2,MaxC3,MaxC4(5)ꆡꆡMin[DRA]=fMinC1,MinC2,MinC3,MinC4(6)ꆡꆡ헽좷죏쪶럧쿕풼쫸킧펦,뿉틔뇜쏢퓚맜샭뻶닟믮뚯훐뗄쎤쒿탔,듙쪹죋쏇퓚훆뚨햽싔ꆢ볆뮮쒿뇪뫍뷸탐믮뚯쪱,튪돤럖뾼싇럧쿕뿉쓜듸살뗄쯰쪧뫍뢺쏦뷡맻,늻쓜횻욾훷맛풸췻뫍튻쪱죈쟩좥쎰쿕뫍싹룉,뛸펦짳쪱뛈쫆,솿솦뛸탐,힢틢뻶닟뗄뿆톧탔뫍뿉탐탔.쇭튻랽쏦,잿뗷럧쿕뗄풼쫸킧펦늻펦닺짺뛔럧쿕뗄뿖뻥탄샭.횻뾴떽럧쿕뗄쯰쪧튻쏦,믡쪹죋쏇횻힢틢럧쿕뗄뢺쏦킧펦뛸놻뚯뇜쏢,듓뛸쪧뗴쒳킩믺믡폫샻틦,틖훆죋뫍짧믡뗄쓜솿쫍럅.ꆡ럧쿕킧펦욽뫢뗣짏쏦뗄럖컶횸돶,럧쿕튻랽쏦뻟폐폕믳킧펦,쟽쪹죋쏇캪쇋믱뗃잱퓚뗄럧쿕샻틦뛸ퟷ돶쒳훖럧쿕톡퓱;쇭튻랽쏦럧쿕폖뻟폐풼쫸킧펦,뛔죋쏇뗄톡퓱뫍탐캪닺짺쒳훖췾짣뫍틖훆ퟷ폃.헢솽훖킧펦춬쪱듦퓚,춬쪱랢짺ퟷ폃,쟒뻟폐쿠쓦탔벰쿠뮥쎬뛜.쎿튻훖럧쿕쫂볾뇘좻듦퓚헢솽훖킧펦쿠뮥돥춻,' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆡ90ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ쳬ꆡ뷲ꆡ샭ꆡ릤ꆡ톧ꆡ풺ꆡ톧ꆡ놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ15뻭쿠뮥뗖쿻뗄ퟷ폃,웤뷡맻쫇퓚솽훖킧펦횮볤믡돶쿖튻붻닦뗣(B),죧춼1쯹쪾.퓚B뗣럧쿕폕믳킧펦폫풼쫸킧펦쿠뗈,뿉돆캪럧쿕킧펦욽뫢뗣,헢룶욽뫢뗣쫇럧쿕폕믳킧펦뫍풼쫸킧펦쿠뮥ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻.평폚춬튻럧쿕쫂볾뛔폚늻춬뻶닟헟뗄폕믳킧펦뫍풼쫸킧펦늻춬,틲듋럧쿕킧펦욽뫢뗣뛔폚늻춬뗄뻶닟헟뗄캻훃튲쫇늻튻퇹뗄.탎돉욽뫢뗣뗄맽돌,쪵훊짏쫇죋쏇뛔폕믳폫풼쫸솽훖킧펦뷸탐죏쪶ꆢ뇈뷏ꆢ좨뫢뗄맽돌,벴쫇튻룶맛쓮맽돌ꆢ쮼쿫맽돌ꆢ에뛏맽돌뫍톡퓱맽돌,퓚헢룶맽돌훐죋쏇뷡뫏ퟔ벺뗄뺭퇩,룹뻝쳘뚨럧쿕뗄뿍맛탔,뛔럧쿕쯰쪧뫍쫕틦뷸탐뗄튻훖ꆰ쒣쓢욽뫢ꆱ.짏쫶헢룶럧쿕킧펦욽뫢맽돌폃춼1뇭쪾.춼1ꆡ럧쿕킧펦욽뫢맽돌춼2ꆡ늻좷뚨쫂볾뗄럧쿕뻶닟쟸폲쪾틢춼ꆡꆡ뻶닟헟춨맽닉좡튻쾵쇐뗄랽램뫍듫쪩,뿉룄뇤탨돐떣뗄럧쿕뮷뺳,쪹웤폕믳킧펦폫풼쫸킧펦듯떽욽뫢,퓚헢욽뫢ힴ첬쿂뗄럧쿕뮷뺳쫇뻶닟헟뿉뷓쫜뗄,뛸쇓폚헢퇹뗄럧쿕뮷뺳퓲쫇늻뿉뷓쫜뗄,헢훖쿖쿳뿉돆캪ꆰ럧쿕폕믳튻풼쫸ꆱ풭샭.샽죧뛔폚튻럝만뚨ퟜ볛뫏춬,돐냼짌퓚뷸탐춶뇪놨볛뻶닟쪱,뿉틔춨맽쫊떱쳡룟놨볛쮮욽뫍/믲헹좡뛔ퟔ벺폐샻뗄뫏춬쳵뿮뫍/믲쿲럖냼짌볞튻늿럖럧쿕뗈랽램뫍듫쪩,룄뇤ퟔ벺돐떣뗄럧쿕뮷뺳,뺡솿헹좡튻룶ퟔ벺쓜뷓쫜뗄럧쿕뮷뺳,헢뻍쫇럧쿕폕믳킧펦폫풼쫸킧펦쿠뮥ퟷ폃늢듯떽쿠뛔욽뫢뗄맽돌뫍뷡맻.볙짨:ꆡꆡ폃DRE뇭쪾럧쿕킧펦뛈DRE=DRC2DRAfDRC=C2fAꆡꆡꆡꆡDREꇜ1fC짨:0ΦDRCΦ1ꆡꆡꆡꆡ0ΦDRAΦ1떱DRA>DRC,벴AOB쟸폲,-1ΦDRE<0,폕믳돊훷쇷쟸폲,캪뿉뷓쫜럧쿕쟸폲;ꆡDRA=DRC,벴욽뫢뗣B,DRE=0,폕믳폫풼쫸킧펦욽뫢,캪ퟮ듳뿉뷓쫜럧쿕쟸폲;ꆡDRA<DRC,벴CDB쟸폲,0<DREΦ1,풼쫸돊훷쇷쟸폲,캪늻뿉뷓쫜럧쿕쟸폲;DRE뗄듳킡,듓쒳훖돌뛈짏뇭쿖쇋늻좷뚨쫂볾뗄럧쿕뗄듳킡,뿉틔폃ퟷ뻶닟헟쫇럱ퟷ돶럧쿕뻶닟뗄뫢솿횸뇪(횮튻).춼2훐(I)탍쟸폲캪뷓쫜럧쿕뗄뻶닟쟸폲;ꆡꆡ(II)탍쟸폲캪늻뷓쫜럧쿕뗄뻶닟쟸폲;ꆡꆡ뛸OM퓲캪뷓쫜ퟮ듳럧쿕뮷뺳뗄뻶닟쟸폲.퓚춼1훐:ꆡ떱ꆡDRA>DRC,벴AOB춼탎쟸폲,폕믳킧펦돊훷쇷,캪뿉뷓쫜럧쿕쟸폲;ꆡꆡꆡDRA<DRC,벴CBD춼탎쟸폲,풼쫸킧펦돊훷쇷,캪늻뿉뷓쫜럧쿕쟸폲;ꆡꆡꆡDRA=DRC,벴캪럧쿕킧펦욽뫢뗣B,쫇뿉뷓쫜럧쿕쟸폲폫늻뿉뷓쫜럧쿕쟸폲뗄럖뷧뗣.쫂쪵짏,럧쿕킧펦욽뫢쫇뚯첬뗄ꆢ쿠뛔뗄ꆢ늻춬뗄럧쿕쫂볾믡폐늻춬뗄욽뫢뗣,늻춬뗄맜샭헟뛔폚춬튻럧쿕쫂볾웤욽뫢뗣튲쫇늻쿠춬뗄.럧쿕킧펦욽뫢뗣쪵볊짏쫇뻶닟헟쯹쓜뷓쫜뗄ퟮ듳럧쿕ힴ첬.퓚듋ힴ첬믹뒡짏,죎뫎뿉틔복킡믲뿘' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚2웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ틼쇖:럧쿕뻶닟뗄킧펦-탐캪뻶닟쒣탍91훆럧쿕틲쯘뗄듫쪩뚼뿉틔퓶볓럧쿕폕믳뛈,복킡럧쿕풼쫸뛈,듓뛸쳡룟뻶닟헟뷓쫜룃ힴ첬쿂럧쿕뗄탅탄.2ꆡ럧쿕킧펦튻탐캪뻶닟쒣탍ꆡ뻶닟헟뗄럧쿕첬뛈평폚뻶닟헟룶죋뗄욫뫃,볛횵맛뫍놳뺰뗈늻춬,늻춬뗄뻶닟헟뛔폚춬튻럧쿕쫂볾믡ퟷ돶늻춬뗄뻶닟,헢훖쿖쿳놻돆캪럧쿕첬뛈ꆲ1ꆳꆲ2ꆳꆲ3ꆳ,룹뻝킧폃샭싛,럧쿕첬뛈뿉럖캪죽훖ꆲ1ꆳ,죧춼3쯹쪾.퓚춼3훐:춼3ꆡ쫕죫맘쾵쟺쿟춼4ꆡ럧쿕첬뛈폫풼쫸킧펦횮맘쾵A:믘뇜럧쿕,돖헢훖첬뛈뗄죋뛔샻틦랴펳뇈뷏동뛛,뛸뛔쯰쪧뇈뷏쏴룐,쫜럧쿕뗄풼쫸킧펦펰쿬뷏듳.B:훐탔첬뛈,돖헢훖첬뛈뗄죋뛔럧쿕늻힢틢,췪좫내헕웚췻횵뗄룟뗍살톡퓱ퟔ벺뗄탐뚯랽낸,쫇뷩폚A뫍C탍뻶닟헟횮볤뗄튻샠죋.C:폂폚쎰쿕,돖헢훖첬뛈뗄죋뛔쯰쪧랴펳뇈뷏동뛛,뛸뛔샻틦퓲뇈뷏쏴룐,쫜럧쿕뗄폕믳킧펦펰쿬뷏듳.ꆡ뻶닟헟탐캪폫럧쿕킧펦횮맘쾵럧쿕첬뛈샭싛쪵볊짏쫇랴펳춬튻럧쿕쫂볾뛔늻춬샠탍뻶닟헟뗄폕믳킧펦뫍풼쫸킧펦쫇늻춬뗄.뒫춳뗄킧폃샭싛,붫뻶닟헟뗄럧쿕첬뛈쫽솿뮯,틔ퟮ듳킧폃횵ퟷ캪뻶닟뗄ힼ퓲,듓튻뚨돌뛈짏랴펳쇋뻶닟헟탐캪폫럧쿕뗄맘쾵,떫뛔폚뿍맛듦퓚뗄럧쿕킧펦폫뻶닟헟탐캪첬뛈캴쓜볓틔좫쏦뇭쪾뫍럖컶.춼4,춼5,춼6,룸돶쇋뻶닟헟럖컶첬뛈폫럧쿕킧펦횮볤뗄맘쾵.듓춼훐뿉뾴돶,쯤좻쯦ퟅ럧쿕퓶듳,뛔죽훖샠탍뻶닟헟(A,B,C)뗄풼쫸킧펦튲쿠펦퓶듳,떫퓶듳뗄쯙싊늻춬,뛔돖놣쫘첬뛈뗄죋,럧쿕풼쫸킧펦ퟮ듳.듋췢퓚춬튻럧쿕뮷뺳ힴ첬쿂,뛔늻춬샠탍뗄뻶닟헟쯹닺짺뗄풼쫸킧펦쫇늻춬뗄.춼훐쿔좻DRCA>DRCB>DRCC.춼5룸돶쇋럧쿕첬뛈폫럧쿕폕믳킧펦횮맘쾵.듓춼훐뿉뾴돶,쯤좻쯦ퟅ럧쿕퓶듳,뛔죽훖샠탍뻶닟헟(A,B,C)뗄폕믳킧펦튲쿠펦복짙,떫복짙뗄쯙싊늻춬,듋췢퓚춬튻럧쿕뮷뺳ힴ첬쿂,뛔늻춬샠탍뗄뻶닟헟쯹닺짺뗄폕믳킧펦쫇늻춬뗄,춼훐쿔좻DRAC>DRAB>DRAA.뛔폚춬튻뻶닟헟,쯦ퟅ웤ퟔ짭뺭퇩쮮욽ꆢ쓜솦뗄쳡룟틔벰뛔럧쿕쫂볾뗄훰늽쇋뷢,웤뛔듽럧쿕뗄첬뛈뿉쓜믡랢짺뇤뮯,튻룶벫뛋뗄쟩뿶쫇:뻶닟헟뛔듽럧쿕뗄첬뛈듓믘뇜탍(A)뇤캪쎰쿕탍(C),쓇쎴뷧폚듋벫뛋뗄뻶닟헟웤럧쿕풼쫸킧펦폫폕믳킧펦뗄욽뫢뗣벴믡실퓚춼훐BABDBCBE쟸폲쓚.뛔폚춼7훐뗄죽뗣,뿉ퟷ죧쿂럖컶:1)뛔폚뒦폚춬튻럧쿕뮷뺳ힴ첬쿂뗄BY,BZ,웤럧쿕욽뫢뗣쪱뗄킧펦(풼쫸킧펦=폕믳킧펦)늻춬,BY>BZ,쮵쏷럧쿕폐쪱풼쫸킧펦듳,웤폕믳킧펦튲듳,퓚듋훖늻춬킧펦쿂뻶닟헟뻹뿉뷓쫜춬튻' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆡ92ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ쳬ꆡ뷲ꆡ샭ꆡ릤ꆡ톧ꆡ풺ꆡ톧ꆡ놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ15뻭럧쿕뮷뺳ힴ첬ퟷ캪웤ퟮ듳뿉돐쫜뗄럧쿕ힴ첬.춼5ꆡ럧쿕첬뛈폫폕믳킧펦횮맘쾵춼6ꆡ럧쿕첬뛈폫럧쿕킧펦욽뫢뗣횮맘쾵춼7ꆡ럧쿕첬뛈폫럧쿕킧펦욽뫢뗣쪾틢춼춼8ꆡ럧쿕맜샭돉놾놨돪횮맘쾵2)뛔폚뒦폚늻춬럧쿕뮷뺳ힴ첬쿂뗄BX,BY,웤럧쿕풼쫸킧펦폫폕믳킧펦쿠뗈,떫RX<RY,쮵쏷뛔폚쒳킩뻶닟헟,쯤좻럧쿕킧펦쿠춬,떫좴뷓쫜늻춬뗄럧쿕뮷뺳ힴ첬ퟷ캪웤ퟮ듳뿉돐쫜뗄럧쿕ힴ첬.뛔폚쒳튻럧쿕뻶닟,튻뾪쪼평폚뛔럧쿕놳뺰쇋뷢늻릻,웤뻶닟첬뛈욫놣쫘,뻶닟헟뷓쫜럧쿕뮷뺳뗄뿕볤뇈뷏킡(RA),듋쪱첸에뗄폠뗘킡,돉릦뗄믺믡튲쿠뛔뷏킡,쯦ퟅ뛔럧쿕놳뺰뗄짮죫쇋뷢,믲뻶닟헟닉좡쫊떱뗄럧쿕맜샭랽램뫍듫쪩,룄뇤쇋럧쿕랢짺뗄쳵볾뫍뷡맻,뻶닟헟돐쫜럧쿕뗄뿕볤랶캧뻍뷏듳(RC),듋쪱첸에뗄폠뗘듳,럧쿕뻶닟돉릦뗄믺믡튲쿠뛔뷏듳,평듋뾴돶,뻶닟헟뻶닟첬뛈뿉틔쯦ퟅ럧쿕뮷뺳뗄뇤뮯뛸뇤뮯,웤뻶닟뗄쇩믮뛈뫍돐쫜럧쿕뗄뿕볤랶캧,튲쿠펦쯦횮뇤뮯.춼6룸돶쇋럧쿕첬뛈폫럧쿕킧펦욽뫢뗣횮맘쾵,듓춼훐뿉뾴돶,놣쫘탍뻶닟헟뗄럧쿕킧펦욽뫢뗣캪BA,훐탔뻶닟헟뗄럧쿕킧펦욽뫢뗣캪BB,뛸쎰쿕탍뻶닟헟횮럧쿕킧펦욽뫢뗣캪BC,뫜쏷쿔,늻춬럧쿕첬뛈돖폐헟벴믡폐늻춬뗄럧쿕킧펦욽뫢뗣,웤뿉뷓쫜뗄ퟮ듳럧쿕ힴ첬튲쫇늻춬뗄.틲듋,웤쯼샠탍뗄뻶닟헟웤뿉뷓쫜뗄ퟮ듳럧쿕ힴ첬RX캪:RAΦRXΦꆡ럧쿕맜샭킧틦쿮쒿럧쿕맜샭뗄쒿뗄쫇닉좡튻뚨랽램뿘훆뫍복짙럧쿕,냯훺뻶닟헟뻶닟늢쪵쿖풤뚨뗄뻶닟쒿뇪,ퟮ훕쪵쿖쿮쒿킧틦.떫럧쿕맜샭뗄쪵쪩튲탨튪튻뚨뗄춶죫,닉좡늻춬뗄랽램,탨튪뗄춶죫튲늻춬,뇈' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚2웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ틼쇖:럧쿕뻶닟뗄킧펦-탐캪뻶닟쒣탍93죧쾵춳뗄럧쿕맜샭(냼삨럧쿕쪶뇰ꆢ럖컶ꆢ뿘훆뫍럀횹뗈)뿏뚨뇈믹폚뻶닟헟횱뻵(뺭퇩ꆢ쓜솦ꆢ럧룱뗈)뗄뻶닟튪뮨럑룼뛠.틲럧쿕맜샭뗄쪵쪩뛸뢶돶뗄춶죫뿉틔돆캪럧쿕맜샭돉놾,럧쿕맜샭ힷ쟳뗄킧틦뇣쫇쪵쿖ퟮ듳럧쿕놨돪믲킧틦,춬쪱붵뗍럧쿕맜샭돉놾.헽좷럖컶럧쿕맜샭킧틦폐훺폚뻶닟헟톡퓱헽좷ꆢ뫏쫊뗄럧쿕맜샭뫍뻶닟랽램,틔쪹럧쿕맜샭킧틦ퟮ듳뮯.(1991)룸돶쇋럧쿕맜샭돉놾폫놨돪횮맘쾵ꆲ4ꆳ,닎볻춼8.뛸PatrickSGodfrey(1996)퓲룼캪쿪쾸뗘쏨쫶쇋럧쿕맜샭킧틦폫럧쿕맜샭돉놾뗄맘쾵,닎볻춼9.춼9ꆡ킧틦폫쾵춳뿘훆돉놾맘쾵춼춼9쿔쪾쇋튻뾪쪼횱뻵뻶닟랽램붫믱뗃ퟮ듳뗄뒿쫕틦(P0).횱뻵뻶닟튲탭늻폃뮨럑쪲쎴쪱볤믲ퟷ돶뛠짙뿘훆얬솦,떫폐쪱헢훖뻶닟랽램믡돶듭,틲듋웤쫕틦늢늻ퟜ쫇캪헽(폃탩쿟뇭쪾).뛸닉폃쾵춳럖컶뫍뻶닟랽램,웤뿘훆돉놾(C)뫍쫕틦(R)믡쯦ퟅ쯹뮨뿘훆얬솦뫍/믲쪱볤뗄퓶볓뛸퓶볓,떫웤뒿쫕틦(P=R-C)퓲믡퓚듯떽튻룶ퟮ룟뗣뫳쿂붵,춼8쿔쪾뒿쫕틦짵훁믡돶쿖뢺횵.퓚튻룶뫏쫊뗄뿘훆쮮욽짏(EA/TA),뒿쫕틦P=R-C퓲듯떽ퟮ룟뗣,벴:Pmax=REA/TA2CEA/TA틲듋,뻶닟헟펦뫏샭좨뫢RꆢC폫E/T횮볤뗄맘쾵,틔믱뗃럧쿕맜샭킧틦ퟮ듳뮯(Pmax).튻냣뗘쮵,쾵춳뿘훆랽램뷏쫊폃폚잱퓚럧쿕룟틔벰뻶닟헟퓋폃맽좥뺭퇩쫕떽쿞훆뗄뎡뫏.3ꆡ뷡ꆡ싛1)놾컄룄뇤쇋맽좥럧쿕퇐뺿뗄닠훘뗣,뛔늻춬샠탍뗄뻶닟헟듓탐캪짏뗄쒣쓢틆떽뛔뻶닟헟뗄샭탔쒣쓢,뷒쪾쇋럧쿕뿍맛듦퓚뗄럧쿕폕믳-풼쫸킧펦믺훆벰웤욽뫢맽돌,럖컶쇋펰쿬럧쿕킧펦뗄틲쯘.2)뷸튻늽퇐뺿쇋뻶닟헟탐캪폫럧쿕킧펦횮볤뗄맘쾵,뷒쪾쇋퓚춬튻럧쿕뮷뺳ힴ첬쿂늻춬뻶닟헟쯹닺짺뗄늻춬킧펦,틔벰늻춬뻶닟헟웤뿉뷓쫜뗄ퟮ듳럧쿕뮷뺳ힴ첬.3)놾컄ퟮ뫳퓋폃럧쿕킧펦튻탐캪쒣탍,럖컶쇋뻶닟랽램톡퓱뗄쫊펦탔,늢럖컶쇋럧쿕맜샭킧틦쒣탍,쳡돶쇋에뛏럧쿕맜샭킧틦뗄뇪ힼ,폐훺폚쳡룟럧쿕맜샭뫍뻶닟랽램펦폃뗄ퟮ훕킧틦.4)놾컄퇐뺿뗄뷡맻뻟폐튻뚨뗄맣랺탔,늻뷶쫊폃폚릤돌맜샭쇬폲,튲춬퇹쫊폃폚룷훖럧쿕뮷뺳뗄뻶닟.닎ꆡ뾼ꆡ컄ꆡ쿗:[1]Flanagn,,G.(1993)ꆫ106,107ꆫ120,153ꆫ179.[2]Shen,.(1990)ApplicationofRiskManagementtotheChineseConstructionIndustryPHDThesis,UniversityofReading,UK[3]Lifson,,.(1982)DecisionandRiskAnaiysisforConstructionManagement,JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.[4](1991)RiskAnalysis,WITHERBY&,ꆫ6.[5]PatrickSGodfreg(1996)ControlofRiskꆪAGuidetothesystematicManagementofRisk,FromConstruction,CIRIA,28ꆫ35.' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
