M Asia Pacific Insight
中国股票策略年中展望
砥砺前行，开拓新境
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
王滢
股票策略师
@ +852 2848-6853
刘颖
股票策略师
@ +852 2848-5497
吴薇
股票策略师
@ +852 3963-3928
Exhibit 1 : 摩根士丹利覆盖的中国股票指
数2027年第二季度乐观/基准/悲观情景目标：
隐含上行空间在8% 12%不等
Dec-26 Dec-27 Dec-26 Dec-27
28,400 2,254 2,408 2,270 2,499
8% 7% 7% 12% 10%
9,900 939 993 921 979
11% 5% 6% 5% 6%
91
12% 7% 10% 14% 15%
5,400 315 347 350 395
11% 10% 10% 18% 13%
32,400 2,299 2,504 2,270 2,499
23% 8% 9% 12% 10%
11,000 958 1,013 921 979
24% 6% 6% 5% 6%
103
27% 8% 11% 14% 15%
6,090 321 361 350 395
25% 11% 12% 18% 13%
18,000 2,141 2,239 2,270 2,499
-32% 4% 5% 12% 10%
6,200 892 923 921 979
-30% 3% 4% 5% 6%
60
-26% 3% 5% 14% 15%
3,550 304 319 350 395
-27% 7% 5% 18% 13%
Consensus
12m Fwd
P/E Current
MS Top-Down EPS YoY
%
Consensus EPS
Forecast YoY %
Index
Current
Price
MS Target
Price
(2Q-2027)
MS Target
Fwd P/E
2Q - 2027
B
a
se
C
a
se
HSCEI 8,889
Hang Seng 26,394
MSCI China 81
B
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C
a
se
HSCEI 8,889
CSI300 4,872
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C
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se
HSCEI 8,889
26,394
CSI300 4,872
Hang Seng
MSCI China 81
CSI300 4,872
Hang Seng 26,394
MSCI China 81
资料来源：MSCI IBES 彭博 FactSet RIMES 摩根士丹利研究部预
测 数据截至2026年5月8日
我们预计在盈利改善 在全球上游供应链中的主导地位增
强 以及美元/人民币走强的支撑下，至2027年二季度市场存
在温和上行空间 若中美峰会达成贸易休战延续的共识，或
将带动指数出现阶段性上涨 相对于离岸市场我们更偏好A
股，并建议优先进行主题选股，而非被动指数投资
年初至今 主题驱动的市场增长受指数编制规则掩盖：以上游为主导的板块（能
源 原材料及以高端制造为主的工业板块）以及科技国产替代（半导体 医疗健
康）实现了相对指数2 30%的年初至今绝对回报 然而，MSCI（明晟）中国指数
表现受到明显拖累，主要因其指数构成过度偏向大型平台公司（占比约45%），
同时在现有纳入规则下对A股上市公司显著低配（上述表现较好的板块合计权重不
足20%，且多数为A股上市公司）
我们认为盈利前景将温和改善：1）在AI/能源资本开支周期加速背景下，出口增长
更为强劲；2）人民币兑美元升值；3）大型平台公司激烈价格竞争带来的盈利压
力见顶，且更为严格的政府监管已于4月启动 随着盈利增长改善 中美贸易休战
延续，以及中国企业在全球高端供应链中的主导地位提升，估值亦有望出现一定
程度的上修
我们的最新2027年第二季度目标点位分别为：恒生指数28,400点 MSCI中国指
数91点 恒生中国企业指数9,900点以及沪深300指数5,400点，对应分别隐
含8% 12% 11%及11%的上行空间 短期内市场波动仍可能加大，主要受以下因
素影响：1）一季度业绩可能继续低于预期；2）7月香港股市将迎来一轮大规
模IPO限售股解禁；3）若美联储降息预期消退甚至转为加息，流动性存在不确定
性；4）在能源价格高企背景下，全球增长面临风险 因此，我们预计市场走势有
望在夏季前后逐步趋于清晰并趋于平稳
我们继续偏好A股优于离岸市场，主要基于：1）高端上游制造与硬科技企业集中
度更高；2）潜在A股IPO有望显著提升境内投资者参与度；3）“国家队”资金支
持在侧
行业偏好：我们重点看好以上游资产为核心的板块，其受AI超级周期冲击相对较
小，且在能源效率重新成为优先事项的背景下，全球市场份额持续提升 包括原
材料 工业及能源板块 此外，我们亦看好技术国产替代主题（半导体），并对
金融板块（保险及交易所）及高股息策略维持适度配置 同时，我们对房地产及
必需消费品板块维持低配（UW）
核心交易建议： 1) A股 > 离岸市场; 2) “中国最佳商业模式”（Best Business
Model）相关标的； 3) 全球上游能源自给产业链领军企业； 4) 基于港股通（南
向）纳入/剔除的事件驱动型战术交易
This translated report is made available for convenience only and is excerpted from
the original research report published in English. In the event of any discrepancy
between the translation and the original research report, the content in the original
research report will prevail. The original research report can be found here: China
Equity Strategy Mid-year Outlook | Asia Pacific: Forging New Horizons (13 May
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley
Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley
Research as only a single factor in making their investment
decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this
report.
+= Analysts employed by . affiliates are not registered
with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member
and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on
communications with a subject company, public appearances
and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
May 15, 2026 02:06 AM GMT
M Asia Pacific Insight
2
2026).
本翻译报告仅供参考之便，摘自以英文发表的原版研究报告 如果翻译与原版研
究报告有任何不一致之处，以原版研究报告中的内容为准 原版研究报告可在此
处查看： China Equity Strategy Mid-year Outlook | Asia Pacific: Forging New
Horizons (13 May 2026)
ZXQUmRmPtPsMrQmMoQwPsM6McMbRsQnNnPpRkPmMsPeRpOnQaQmOtRNZqRtOvPtQtQ
M Asia Pacific Insight
Morgan Stanley Research 3
2026年中国市场中期展望 砥砺前行，开拓新境
年初至今：主题驱动的市场增长受指数编制规则掩盖
以上游为主导的板块（能源 原材料及以高端制造为主的工业板块）以及技术国产替代
（半导体 医疗健康）实现了2 30%的年初至今绝对回报（ Exhibit 2） ，且整体盈利预
测修正表现优于指数 然而，MSCI中国指数表现受到拖累，主要因其指数构成过度偏向
大型平台公司（占比约45%），同时在现有纳入规则下对A股上市公司配置偏低（上述
表现较好的板块合计权重约20%，且多数为A股上市公司）
我们认为，此类偏重失衡的指数权重结构未能真实反映中国股票市场的实际情况，因为
指数编制规则在放大AI带来的冲击压力的同时压制了表现较好的板块 当前表现较优板
块在指数中的权重较低，主要有两方面原因：
• MSCI指数中A股权重存在较大折算系数（20%）：表现较优板块更多集中于A股
市场，但在指数编制中，仅有其符合条件的A股市值的20%被纳入权重计算，从
而人为压低了A股在MSCI中国及其他指数中的整体权重占比
• 美国政府发布的“非SDN-中国军事综合体企业”清单（NS-CMIC）相关股票被剔
除出指数：部分表现较好的行业/板块（如工业/资本品 半导体 能源及原材
料）受影响最为明显，因此在MSCI中国指数及其他全球指数中的权重被低估
Exhibit 2: 中国指数表现与权重：互联网板块（可选消费 + 通信服务）为指数表现的最
大拖累项
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YTD return % Index weight
资料来源：FactSet 摩根士丹利研究部 数据截至2026年5月8日
M Asia Pacific Insight
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Exhibit 3: 中国指数按行业的调整后权重分布 资本品 半导体 原材料 科技硬件
及能源板块料将实现最大权重提升
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MSCI China proforma weighting by sector
(including entity list and NS-CMIC list stocks
& assuming 100% A-share inclusion)
Current Pro-forma
资料来源：美国政府网站 FactSet 摩根士丹利研究部
Exhibit 3显示，根据我们的测算（在MSCI中国指数中，将实体清单及MS-CMIC名单相关
股票重新纳入，并假设符合条件的A股成份股纳入因子为100%），表现领先的板块整体
权重将提升13个百分点，而电商板块权重将下降17个百分点 因此，整体中国股票市场
的表现预计将显著优于当前指数所反映的水平 我们亦认为，相较于被动跟踪指数，聚
焦上述结构性主题投资机会有望实现更优回报
盈利前景温和改善，主要受三大因素推动
展望未来6 12个月，我们认为盈利增长前景将边际改善
并预计自下半年（2H）起，盈利预期下调的态势有望放缓，主要由以下三方面因素
驱动：
1. 出口增长更为强劲，并出现短期再通胀迹象；
2. 人民币兑美元表现强于预期；
3. 更为关键的是，大型平台公司激烈价格竞争带来的盈利压力已接近顶部，且政府
监管自4月起开始严格执行
同时，我们也提醒投资者，在当前一季度业绩披露过程中，盈利仍可能经历一轮下调，
并有望随着7月起披露的二季度业绩而逐步改善：这主要因为，MSCI中国指数层面最大
的盈利增长驱动力仍来自互联网平台公司 而反“内卷”价格竞争监管的严格执行始
于4月，意味着盈利修复的效果更可能在二季度业绩中开始体现
5nBTEZp0zckvTsQ06yiexhzMtTX5lo3XDMDq/j3Q6M7QJFjT7ceFp7fl3Ze7eJys
M Asia Pacific Insight
Morgan Stanley Research 5
地缘政治进展提升中国市场定位
2025年成为中美关系的一个拐点，两国达成“休战”，并各自持有对对方具有约束力的
筹码 对美国而言为对华科技限制，对中国而言则为稀土供应
我们预计该“休战”将延续，即将举行的“习特会” (预计于5月14 15日按计划进行）
有望达成象征性成果，包括部分贸易放松措施，以及在若干具有更广泛共识的领域（如
芬太尼 气候 航空等）恢复对话 我们认为，这可能带来指数层面的温和上行空间，
因在此前受中东/霍尔木兹局势及AI超级周期（带动韩国 台湾 日本等市场表现）的关
注分流后，投资者资金可能阶段性重新流向中国市场 此外，中国在中东局势中的潜在
角色亦可能带来额外战略筹码 伊朗外长于5月6日访华（中美峰会前）也体现了这一
点
持续的中东局势预计将进一步强化高端电力/绿色技术主题，在全球更加重视能源自给与
效率提升的背景下，中国凭借具备竞争力的供应链处于有利地位 与此同时，中美竞争
格局将继续推动中国加大对技术国产替代的政策支持，尤其是在AI/半导体及生物科技领
域 我们认为，这些主题具备中长期可持续性，预计将逐步孕育更多全球领先企业，并
伴随估值上修以及在中国股票市场中的权重提升
Exhibit 4: 中国在全球出口中的市场份额 摩根士丹利基准情景预计到2030年将进一
步提升1 2个百分点
%
18%
15%
15%
12%
13%
14%
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19%
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Base case
Upside scenario
Downside scenario
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资料来源：Haver 摩根士丹利研究部预测
需关注的动态因素
除盈利预测短期下行压力外，我们认为以下三项因素亦可能加大中国市场波动：
1) 7月香港IPO解禁规模较大 vs. 恒生科技指数与南向纳入事件： 年初至今香港市场表现
最好的两只股票 Minimax与智谱 根据指数评审方法，可能于6月初分别被纳入恒
生科技指数及恒生指数，对应权重约为5 7%及1 3% 根据互联互通纳入标准，两家公
司预计分别于6月（智谱）及8月（MiniMax）纳入南向通 上述纳入事件有望推动相关
指数的正面动量 带动跟踪指数的ETF资金流入以及南向资金配置 另一方
面，MiniMax（）将于2026年7月8日迎来首次大规模IPO股份解禁，其自由流通
市值占比或由当前约25%升至约33% 这通常会在短期内对个股及相关主题形成抛售压
力，并可能对前述ETF及南向资金流带来一定对冲或稀释影响
2) 国内通缩环境 拐点何时出现？ 摩根士丹利中国经济团队预计，在能源冲击背景
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下，出口持续支撑中国增长，整体通胀读数将有所改善 他们将2026年实际GDP增速上
调个百分点至%，并将GDP平减指数上调个百分点至%（China Economics
Mid-Year Outlook: Upgrading Growth to Reflect AI and Energy Capex Super-cycle）， 政
策基调维持稳定 但与此同时，其认为在就业传导效应有限的情况下，消费仍将相对滞
后，使得再通胀仅呈现于“双速经济”中的部分领域 作为居民消费最大拖累因素的房
地产市场，当前仍面临较高的新房库存压力，我们的行业团队对此维持审慎观点（China
Property: Our Thoughts on Recent Stronger-than-Expected Sales） 若房地产市场出现
触底回升，及/或居民消费重新加速，从而带来上行超预期，我们对指数层面更大幅度上
行空间的判断将更具信心
3) 全球宏观增长路径仍具较大不确定性：我们的全球经济团队强调，未来12个月美国经
济增长与通胀的潜在演变路径将在界定全球宏观前景方面发挥异常重要的作用 基准情
景下（假设未来一个月内与伊朗的冲突得到缓解），其认为美国增长面临的拖累及通胀
上行压力仅具温和且阶段性影响，美联储将在2027年初通胀回落之际实施两次降息 除
基准情景外，还存在多种替代路径，包括：AI带动的生产率提升 总需求上行，以及两
种油价情景 即价格中枢出现永久性风险溢价，或因“需求破坏”引发的衰退情景
上述2026年的不同宏观路径亦可能对中国宏观增长及自上而下的财政与货币政策产生不
同影响，尤其是在近几个季度出口增长已成为中国经济更为重要的增长驱动因素的背景
下
2027年第二季度目标点位：温和上行空间
因此，我们预计指数层面将出现温和上行，主要由盈利增长及估值小幅上修驱动 未
来12个月的市场路径有望自下半年起趋于更加平稳，前提包括：1）全球能源冲击的不确
定性进一步明朗；2）中美关系趋于稳定；3）盈利下调周期见底；4）中国在全球高端
供应链中进一步确立主导地位
基于上述判断，我们将MSCI中国2026年盈利增长预测温和上调至7%（此前为6%） 同
时，我们预计估值水平较当前水平存在一定上行空间（倍 vs. 当前倍），但低于
此前预测的倍，主要因美联储降息周期延后，以及相较2025年南向资金对流动性的
支持整体减弱
我们的最新2027年第二季度目标点位分别为：恒生指数28,400点 恒生中国企业指
数9,900点 MSCI中国指数91点及沪深300指数5,400点，对应较当前水平（截至5月8
日）分别存在8% 11% 12%及11%的上行空间
M Asia Pacific Insight
Morgan Stanley Research 7
Exhibit 5: 摩根士丹利亚洲/新兴市场覆盖的股票指数2027年第二季度乐观/基准/悲观情景目标：在基准情景下，指数目标隐
含8% 12%的上行空间
Dec-26 Dec-27 2Q-28 Dec-28 Dec-26 Dec-27 Dec-28
4,300 216 235 246 263 224 251 276
12% 9% 9% 9% 12% 11% 12% 10%
1,800 125 136 139 141 130 154 174
5% 40% 9% 6% 4% 51% 19% 13%
900 59 64 65 65 61 73 82
2% 40% 8% 5% 2% 51% 19% 12%
28,400 2,254 2,408 2,483 2,557 2,270 2,499 2,733
8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 12% 10% 9%
9,900 939 993 1022 1050 921 979 1,047
11% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 7%
91
12% 7% 10% 8% 7% 14% 15% 13%
5,400 315 347 363 378 350 395 442
11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 18% 13% 12%
4,890 224 255 272 290 224 251 276
28% 13% 14% 15% 14% 11% 12% 10%
2,100 135 147 150 154 130 154 174
23% 50% 9% 7% 5% 51% 19% 13%
1,080 65 72 72 73 61 73 82
23% 53% 10% 6% 2% 51% 19% 12%
32,400 2,299 2,504 2,589 2,675 2,270 2,499 2,733
23% 8% 9% 8% 7% 12% 10% 9%
11,000 958 1,013 1,046 1,079 921 979 1,047
24% 6% 6% 6% 7% 5% 6% 7%
103
27% 8% 11% 9% 8% 14% 15% 13%
6,090 321 361 381 401 350 395 442
25% 11% 12% 12% 11% 18% 13% 12%
2,600 202 209 217 222 224 251 276
-32% 2% 4% 7% 6% 11% 12% 10%
1,100 103 101 100 99 130 154 174
-36% 16% -2% -2% -2% 51% 19% 13%
590 50 51 51 51 61 73 82
-33% 21% 2% 1% 0% 51% 19% 12%
18,000 2,141 2,239 2,309 2,378 2,270 2,499 2,733
-32% 4% 5% 5% 6% 12% 10% 9%
6,200 892 923 934 945 921 979 1047
-30% 3% 4% 3% 2% 5% 6% 7%
60
-26% 3% 5% 5% 5% 14% 15% 13%
3,550 304 319 326 333 350 395 442
-27% 7% 5% 5% 4% 18% 13% 12%
CSI300 4,872
MSCI APxJ 879
Hang Seng 26,394
MSCI China 81
MSCI EM 1,711
HSCEI 8,889
26,394
CSI300 4,872
Hang Seng
MSCI China 81
B
u
ll
C
a
se
TOPIX 3,829
MSCI EM 1,711
MSCI APxJ 879
81
B
e
a
r
C
a
se
TOPIX 3,829
MSCI APxJ 879
HSCEI 8,889
CSI300 4,872
MS Top-Down EPS YoY % Consensus EPS Forecast YoY %
Index
Current
Price
MS Target
Price
(2Q-2027)
MS Target
Fwd P/E
2Q - 2027
B
a
se
C
a
se
TOPIX 3,829
MSCI EM 1,711
HSCEI 8,889
Hang Seng 26,394
MSCI China
Consensus
12m Fwd
P/E Current
资料来源：RIMES MSCI FactSet IBES Datastream 彭博 摩根士丹利研究部 数据截至2026年5月8日
M Asia Pacific Insight
8
在我们的新兴市场/亚太（除日本）框架下，对中国维持平配
（equal-weight ），主要考虑到MSCI中国指数因成分构成限
制而表现受抑
在全球新兴市场/亚太（除日本）框架内，我们维持对MSCI中国指数平配
（equal-weight）认为其上行空间与广泛的MSCI新兴市场指数大致相当 如前所述，我
们认为有望跑赢指数的板块由于成分构成规则限制，在指数中的权重被低估
我们认为，中国股票市场在个股及主题层面的机会体量庞大 受稳健基本面及明确主
题（如技术国产替代 高端制造等）驱动 有望使投资者通过构建针对性组合实现优
于同业的表现
我们重点推荐具备较强技术/创新能力的优质公司，其发展方向与中国“十五年规划”更
为契合，同时具备在全球范围内扩大布局 满足能源安全与效率需求的潜力 此外，事
件驱动型机会（如中美峰会受益标的 纳入南向港股通）亦值得关注
Exhibit 6: 中国指数相对表现（相对于MSCI新兴市场，以美元计总回报）及摩根士丹
利对中国股市的评级历史 维持平配
资料来源：MSCI FactSet Datastream 摩根士丹利研究部 数据截至2026年5月7日；过往表现不代表未来结果
哪些因素可能推动我们在整体指数层面转为更为乐观？
• 当前通缩趋势较预期更早且更明确的突破路径将至关重要
• 全球地缘政治环境进一步稳定，尤其是能源冲击得到更快且可持续的缓解，以及
中美关系显著改善
• 中国科技进步若进一步突破，并使可触达市场规模扩展至更广泛的区域乃至全球
市场份额，也将构成重要上行驱动 若主要云计算平台（hyperscalers）的大模
型（LLM）能力及其变现前景显著改善，亦将为整体指数提供更有力支撑
M Asia Pacific Insight
Morgan Stanley Research 9
乐观/悲观情景区间仍然较大
我们对2027年第二季度的乐观/悲观情景目标反映出中国股市表现存在较大的区间分布
（以MSCI中国指数为例，悲观情景为-26%，乐观情景为+27%**）
在乐观情景下，需看到当前通缩周期显著提前突破，并伴随中美关系改善（有望受到即
将在北京举行的中美元首峰会支持） 叠加中国企业持续稳健的研发投入，以及在高端
制造供应链中涌现出更多全球领先企业，估值有望获得显著提升 在此情景下，MSCI中
国指数有望实现约27%的显著上行空间 随着中国重新确立为稳健增长经济体，其相对
于MSCI新兴市场指数的估值折让亦有望收窄（由基准情景下的约%收窄至约%）
悲观情景：我们预计国内宏观环境将显著恶化，通缩压力在经济各领域进一步加深 与
此同时，全球增长显著放缓甚至陷入衰退，也将明显拖累中国出口增长，而出口目前仍
是中国经济最重要的增长驱动因素 此外，中美关系亦可能再度出现不确定扰动，从而
推升股权风险溢价 我们认为，上述因素叠加将导致市场明显下行（ Exhibit 7 , Exhibit
8 ） 在此背景下，估值可能下修至MSCI中国指数未来12个月预期市盈率约倍；同
时，盈利增长或在2026年放缓至约3%，并在2027年继续处于停滞状态，反映更为严峻
的宏观环境
Exhibit 7: 摩根士丹利恒生指数目标点位历史（乐观/基准/悲
观） 基准情景下，将2027年第二季度目标设于28,400点，
较2026年5月8日收盘水平有约8%的上行空间
10,000
13,000
16,000
19,000
22,000
25,000
28,000
31,000
34,000
37,000
40,000
43,000
D
e
c
-1
3
J
u
n
-1
4
D
e
c
-1
4
J
u
n
-1
5
D
e
c
-1
5
J
u
n
-1
6
D
e
c
-1
6
J
u
n
-1
7
D
e
c
-1
7
J
u
n
-1
8
D
e
c
-1
8
J
u
n
-1
9
D
e
c
-1
9
J
u
n
-2
0
D
e
c
-2
0
J
u
n
-2
1
D
e
c
-2
1
J
u
n
-2
2
D
e
c
-2
2
J
u
n
-2
3
D
e
c
-2
3
J
u
n
-2
4
D
e
c
-2
4
J
u
n
-2
5
D
e
c
-2
5
J
u
n
-2
6
Bear Case Bull Case Base Case Hang Seng Index
资料来源：RIMES FactSet 摩根士丹利研究预测 周度价格指数数据截至2026年5月8日
Exhibit 8: 摩根士丹利MSCI中国指数目标点位历史（乐观/基
准/悲观） 基准情景下，将2027年第二季度目标设于91点，
较2026年5月8日收盘水平有约12%的上行空间
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
D
e
c
-1
3
J
u
n
-
1
4
D
e
c
-1
4
J
u
n
-
1
5
D
e
c
-1
5
J
u
n
-
1
6
D
e
c
-1
6
J
u
n
-
1
7
D
e
c
-1
7
J
u
n
-
1
8
D
e
c
-1
8
J
u
n
-
1
9
D
e
c
-1
9
J
u
n
-2
0
D
e
c
-2
0
J
u
n
-
2
1
D
e
c
-2
1
J
u
n
-
2
2
D
e
c
-2
2
J
u
n
-
2
3
D
e
c
-2
3
J
u
n
-
2
4
D
e
c
-2
4
J
u
n
-2
5
D
e
c
-2
5
J
u
n
-
2
6
Bear Bull Base MSCI China Index
资料来源：RIMES FactSet 摩根士丹利研究预测 周度价格指数数据截至2026年5月8日
我们偏好A股优于中国离岸市场
我们在2026年全年维度继续偏好A股，主要基于以下因素：
• 高端上游制造及硬科技企业集中度更高，符合我们长期多年的结构性投资主线；
• 潜在A股IPO备受期待（如长江存储 长鑫存储及宇树科技），有望吸引更多境内
机构与零售投资者参与；
• “国家队”资金仍在位 我们重申，“国家队”在2026年1 2月已减持约800亿
美元仓位，上述资金有望用于平抑短期市场波动，并配置更长期及具战略意义的
主题型ETF
行业偏好与交易建议 强化主题选股，弱化指数配置
M Asia Pacific Insight
10
我们重点偏好以上游资产为核心的板块，其受AI超级周期冲击较小，同时在能源自给与
能效重视度提升的背景下，获取更大全球市场份额的可能性提升 相关板块包括材料
工业及能源中的优选子行业 此外，我们看好科技国产替代主题，其中半导体（尤其
在IT领域）有望持续受益 我们对金融板块（保险及交易所）及高股息资产维持适度配
置，以获取稳定现金回报，从而在一定程度上对冲潜在市场波动 对于受宏观环境疲弱
拖累的板块（即房地产及必需消费品），我们维持低配（underweight ）
2026年下半年关键交易策略：
1. A股 > 离岸市场，主要因其在科技及高端制造领域的配置更为集中；
2. 行业配置上，超配部分原材料 工业 半导体及保险，低配消费及房地产；
3. 受益于全球能源自给提升的上游板块，尤其是具备出口份额持续扩张的相关企
业
我们在以下章节中对上述交易提供了更为详细的分析与逻辑支持：Key trades for the
next 12 months.
M Asia Pacific Insight
Morgan Stanley Research 11
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ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.
M Asia Pacific Insight
12
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M Asia Pacific Insight
Morgan Stanley Research 13
Coverage Universe Investment Banking Clients (IBC)
Other Material Investment Services
Clients (MISC)
Stock Rating
Category
Count % of Total Count % of Total IBC
% of Rating
Category
Count
% of Total Other
MISC
Overweight/Buy 1546 42% 467 51% 30% 709 44%
Equal-weight/Hold 1568 43% 358 39% 23% 715 44%
Not-Rated/Hold 4 0% 0 0% 0% 1 0%
Underweight/Sell 555 15% 84 9% 15% 202 12%
Total 3,673 909 1627
Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley received investment banking compensation in the
last 12 months. Due to rounding off of decimals, the percentages provided in the "% of total" column may not add up to exactly 100 percent.
Analyst Stock Ratings
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12-18 months.
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the next 12-18 months.
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universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
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Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in Morgan Stanley Research is 12 to 18 months.
Analyst Industry Views
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Benchmarks for each region are as follows: North America - S&P 500; Latin America - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI Latin America Index; Europe - MSCI Europe; Japan - TOPIX; Asia -
relevant MSCI country index or MSCI sub-regional index or MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index.
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M Asia Pacific Insight
14
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