녍썄곣ꡳ뻇ꗍ뷗ꓥ뚰닄ꑀ듁/ꗁ냪ꑅꑑꑇ꙾꒻ꓫ/닄23~33궶 ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵듁ꞡ뿅샋엧ꅇ맪엧롧샙뻇 *Ꝥ꣎뽯 ꒤귬ꑪ뻇냪믚뙔꧶뻇꡴ 뻉ꛑ깶ꅇ램ꮳ륁뇐뇂 멋 굮 ꫱꙾꣓륂ꗎ맪엧륃삸ꪺꓨꚡ꣓곣ꡳ롧샙뉺뷗ꑷ띕ꢣ뒶륍ꅁ싇ꗑ맪엧샴맒ꪺ덝군ꅁꕩ꣏뉻맪ꗍ겡때ꩫ싧뉍ꙝꩇ쏶ꭙꪺ놡듮ꓖꅁ샲녯ꟳꧺ뵔꒧맪엧볆뻚ꅁ꣓엧쏒롧샙뉺뷗ꅃꖻ곣ꡳ꒧ꗘꪺ결샋엧Ꙣꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꑕꅁꖫ돵ꪺ듁믹껦라ꚬ샄ꛜ뱴냓ꪺ듁ꖭꞡꚨꖻꪺ돌ꝃ쉉ꪺ떲뷗걏ꝟ라ꚨꗟꅃꝑꗎ뫴룴륃삸ꪺꓨꚡ볒샀ꑀ귓꫱ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꅁꕈ91뻇꙾ꯗ꒤귬ꑪ뻇냪뙔꡴귗닟램ꮳ륁뇐뇂롧샙뷒땻꒧뻇ꗍ결볋ꖻꅃ곣ꡳ떲ꩇ엣ꗜꅁ덺륌껉뚡Ꟈꙃ룪껆ꕈ군뙱ꓨꩫ꣓꛴군ꞡ뿅믹껦ꥍ꣤뢨ꯡ듁ꪺDGPꅁꖫ돵ꞡ뿅믹껦결ꑀ쁈뻷엜볆ꅁ뇀듺냑뭐ꪺ뻇ꗍꙢ낵ꡍ떦껉ꕩ꿠ꖼꛒ뱻ꭥ듁믹껦꣤ꕌꙝ꿀ꅃ돌ꯡꅁ결ꑆ샋엧덺륌륃삸꛴군꧒녯ꪺꖫ돵듁ꞡ뿅귈ꥍ뉺뷗귈걏ꝟ곛Ꙑꅁ귌ꕈt샋ꥷ맯꣢뙩ꛦ샋ꥷꅁ떲ꩇ엣ꗜ떴꣢곛떥꒧뗪때낲덝ꅃꗧꝙꙢꖻ롧샙맪엧륃삸꧒낲덝ꪺꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꑕꅁ듁ꖫ돵믹껦ꪺ왛맮귈ꣃꖼꚬ샄ꛜ뱴냓듁ꖭꞡꚨꖻ돌ꝃ쉉ꪺ뉺뷗믹껦ꅃ ꒤ꓥ쏶쇤뗼ꅇ맪엧롧샙뻇ꅂꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꅂ듁ꞡ뿅샋엧ꅃ 굞ꓥ쏶쇤뗼ꅇexperimentalꅂperfect competitive marketꅂequilibrium priceꅂdata generation process ꚡ곣ꡳ롧샙뻇뉺뷗ꅁ덺륌놱꣮롧샙뉺뷗료ꪺ뎡ꗷ낲돼ꅂꭥꢥ 덝ꕾꙢ뇸ꗳꅁ녎ꚳꝕ꧳귌룑쓀ꑈ귌Ꙣ낵ꡍ떦껉ꪺꛦ결ꅝCrawford, 2002ꅞꅃꛓ맪엧꒧꧒ꕈ덑뱳꩸ꪺ꫱꙾꣓ꅁ녎맪엧삳ꗎ꧳롧샙뉺뷗ꪺ곣ꡳꖿ덑뱳꩸ꪺ륂ꗎꅁꙢ삳ꗎ꧳롧샙뻇뉺뷗꒧샋엧ꅁSmithꅝ1994ꅞ뒣ꕘꑆSmithꅝ1989ꅞꪺꓥ꒤둎뒣꣬ꕈ맪ꑕꙃ둘쉉귬ꙝꅇ닄ꑀꅂ듺룕뉺뷗ꪺꕩ빡꧊ꅇꙝ결롧엧ꪺꓨꚡ뙩ꛦꖫ돵ꛦ결ꪺ곣ꡳ꣤맪ꑷ륏30빬꙾ꗑꙨꚸꪺ맪엧듺룕ꅁ덱녠ꕩꕈꕘ뉺뷗믝굮뙩ꪺꑆꅃ꧒뿗ꅵ맪엧롧샙뻇ꅶ걏싇ꗑꗎ쑙싔ꪺ곬뻇맪엧꣓놱꣮뫘뫘ꕾꙢ뇸ꗳꅁꕈ꓀꩒ꅂ셁룑ꑈ귌Ꙣ꒣Ꙑꙡꓨꅁ꣒꙰Chamberlinꅝ1948ꅞꝙ곣ꡳꙢꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꑕꅁ뉺뷗ꖫ돵ꥍ맪엧ꖫ돵꒧뚡ꪺ깴늧ꅁ샋ꥷ맪ꪺ뇸ꗳꑕ맯ꡍ떦ꛦ결ꪺ뱶암ꅁ맪엧ꪺ떲ꩇꗎ꣓샋ꥷ엧ꖫ돵ꪺꖭꞡ믹껦뭐ꗦ꧶볆뙱걏ꝟ라떥꧳뉺뷗ꑗ롧샙뉺뷗걏ꝟꚨꗟꅝSmith, 1989ꅞꅃꙝ결뉻맪ꫀ라걏ꯜ뷆싸ꪺꅁ귌ꯜ쏸뵔꓁ꪺꪾ륄꦳꣬걏ꢺ뫘ꙝ꿀ꪺ꣑떹뵵뭐믝ꡄ뵵ꗦ쉉꧒ꡍꥷꪺꞡ뿅믹껦뭐볆뙱ꅃ닄ꑇꅂ쏒맪롧ꗑ듁Ꙩ볆ꪺ맪엧왛맮ꕩꚨ덹ꚨ롧샙떲ꩇ걏롧샙ꛦ결ꅁ꣒꙰ꅇ뱶암껸뙏쇊ꑀ귓ꚨ보ꪺ뉺뷗ꅇ귌ꕩ싇ꗑ싹Ꙗ쑶믹ꪺ맪엧륃삸뙒냓ꭾꪺ귬ꙝꅁꕩ꿠ꕝ걁ꑆ껸뙏ꪺ꧒녯ꅂ껸뙏ꪺ낾ꙮꕈ냓ꭾꖻꢭꪺ믹껦ꅁ꧒ꕈ띑ꪾ륄꛳걏ꖪ떲ꩇꅁ녯ꪾꙢ덯귓뙒뷦싹ꓨ뛈ꪾ륄ꛛꢭ룪끔ꪺꭥ뒣ꑕꅁꗑ뙒뷦싹ꓨꦼꚹ돛믹ꅂ끑믹쇙믹륌땻꒤꧒ꯘꗟꕫ껸뙏쇊뙒냓ꭾꪺꕄ굮귬ꙝꅁ꣤맪걏ꗳ꒣깥꧶ꪺꪺꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺ꽓꧊결꛳ꅃ ꅃꙝꚹSmithꅝ1989ꅞꕘ맪엧륃삸ꪺ덝군ꅁꕄ굮걏싇ꗑ놱꣮뱶암롧샙뉺뷗ꪺꑔ귓굮꿀ꅇ샴맒ꅂ꣮ 닄ꑔꅂꝑꗎ꣮ꯗ곛ꙐꕾꙢ샴맒꒣Ꙑꅁꓱ룻맯냑뭐ꛦ결ꪺ뱶암ꅃ덯ꕄ굮걏녪뷕엜맪엧샴ꯗ냑뭐ꛦ결ꅁ엽뉺뷗낲덝ꥍ맪엧덝군곛닅ꅃꅵ샴맒걏ꝟ라꣏뉺뷗꣼꣬뱶암ꅁꙝ결롧샙뉺뷗ꪺꚨꗟ걏맒ꅶꅁꕝ걁룪ꅂ껄ꗎ꣧볆ꅂ낾ꙮ꣧볆ꅂꗍ늣꣧볆ꥍꚨꖻ꣧볆ꅁꛓꅵ꣮ꯗꅶꭨ걏맪엧뙩ꛦꪺ볒ꚡꅁ굙걏ꯘꗟꙢ랥뫝ꪺ샴맒ꑕꅁꭨꑀꖹꕾꙢ샴맒엜둎깥꧶꒣ꚨꗟꅆ끷맯ꚹ쉉ꅁSmithꅝ1962ꅞꥍHesꅝs1972ꅞ꙰뙒뷦싹ꓨꙢꖫ돵꒤돛믹ꅁꦼꚹ꒬곛놵꣼ꅁ륆ꚨꗦ둎꓀ꝏ곣ꡳ룪끔ꞹꗾ꒽뙽룪끔꒣ꞹꗾ맯ꖫ돵믹꧶ꮴ곹ꅃꅵ냑뭐ꪺꛦ결ꅶꭋ걏냑뭐Ꙣ꒣Ꙑ샴맒ꥍ꣮ꯗꪺ뇸ꗳꑕ꧒Ꝁꪺꡍ떦ꛦ결ꅁ꙰냑뭐라끬껦ꪺ뱶암ꅃꭥꪺ떲ꩇ엣ꗜꅁꙢ룪끔꒽뙽꒧ꑕꅁꕵ굮꿠롔ꓮ뙒뷦싹ꓨꦼꚹ꓄떲ꅁ둎꿠륆꣬쑶ꪧ껉ꪺꞡꡄꝑ볭ꥍ껄ꗎ돌ꑪꅃ 뿅믹껦ꅆꯡ녯꣬쇶땍Ꙣ룪끔꒣ꞹꗾꑕꖭꞡꗦ꧶믹ꑝ둎걏뮡ꅁ곛맯꧳뛇닎ꪺ맪쏒롧샙뻇ꕵꙢꯈ왛뎯굺롧샙뉻뙈ꪺꖻ뷨ꅁꕘꅵ맪결꛳ꅶꅝ껦라엣뗛ꪺ꒣Ꙑ꧳뉺뷗ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦ꅁ롧ꗑ뻇닟껄what it ꩇꅁꝙ싇ꗑ꒽뙽ꡃ듁ꗦ꧶ꪺ믹껦ꅁ뙒뷦싹ꓨꕩꕈꭥisꅞꅁ맪엧롧샙뻇ꪺꙮ덂ꭨꙢ꧳ꅁꕩꝑꗎ맪엧ꪺꓨ23 *Ꝁ결꒤귬냪뙔꡴ꅁs8942206@
Ꝥ꣎뽯 듁믹껦Ꝁ결냑ꛒꅁ뷕뻣ꑕ듁믹껦ꅁ꣏맪믚믹껦뛉Ꙗꡳꛒ뙱꣬ꑝ덜쇙꿠싇ꗑ맪엧륃삸왛맮꧒녯ꪺ껉뚡륷듁믹껦ꅃ닄ꕼꅂ싇ꗑ샴맒곛Ꙑꅁꓱ룻ꖫ돵꣮ꯗꪺꟇꙃ룪껆ꅁ꣓꛴군ꞡ뿅믹껦ꥍ꣤뢨ꯡ듁ꪺDGP뗹꒣Ꙑꅇ꙰M1estelman and Wellandꅝ1988ꅞ둎뒿엜ꅝData Generation Processꅞꅃ꧒ꕈꖻ곣ꡳꪺꕄ굮맪엧ꪺ덝군ꅁ곣ꡳꙢꭥꗍ늣ꪺꭥ뒣ꑕꅁ꒽뙽뷦믹ꗘꪺꅁꝙ링룕ꕈ뫴룴맪엧ꪺꓨꚡ엧쏒ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꅝPosted Offerꅞꥍ싹Ꙗ쑶믹ꅝDouble Auctionꅞ꛳ꑕꅁ듁믹껦ꪺꚬ샄귈걏ꝟ떥꧳뱴냓듁ꖭꞡꚨꖻ룻꣣ꚳ껄뉶ꅁꕌ귌ꪺ곣ꡳ떲ꩇ엣ꗜꅁ싹Ꙗ쑶믹룻ꚱ뵵ꪺ돌ꝃ쉉ꅃꖻꓥꯡ쓲걛멣ꙷ뇆꙰ꑕꅇ닄ꑇ뎹결꒽뙽뷦믹ꟳꚳ껄뉶ꅃ닄꒭ꅂ뗻꛴떦늤ꪺꚳ껄꧊ꅇ륌꒶닐ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵꒧ꙕ뫘꽓꧊뭐듁ꞡ뿅ꅁ닄ꑔ뎹ꕨ볆ꑑ꙾뚡ꅁꡰꑈꗸ띾ꥍ걆ꦲꚳ쏶돦ꛬꝙꙢ곣ꡳ꧳뮡ꧺ맪엧덝군뭐맪엧떲ꩇꅁ닄ꕼ뎹결떲뷗ꅃ 싹Ꙗ쑶믹ꪺꖫ돵꒤ꅁꙕ뫘ꗦ꧶ꪺ냊뻷ꅁꕈ꣏떦늤ꪺ냵ꛦꟳꚳ껄뉶ꅁꑝꚳ롧샙뻇깡ꝑꗎ뽗ꖫ돵Ꝁ결ꪺ뙌ꅂ곣ꡳꓨꩫ 맪엧곣ꡳꪺꖫ돵ꅁ꓀꩒덹ꚨ뽗ꖫ돵껄뉶ꝃ뢨ꪺ귬ꖻ곣ꡳ녎뻚ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꪺ꽓꧊ꅁꝑꗎ뫴룴ꙝꅁꕈ룑쓀꒽Ꙁ끝꙳Ꙣꪺ뉺ꗑꅝOxoby, 2001ꅞꅃ닄뗪샀ꑀ귓꫱ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꅁ엽냑뭐ꪺꙐ뻇Ꙣ륱뢣꒻ꅂ셁룑꣮ꯗ덝군ꪺ꽓꧊ꅇ맪엧꙰Ꙑ걏듺룕꣮ꯗ덝낲ꥷꪺ셠믝ꡄꥷ꒧ꑕꅁꛛꗑꡍꥷ릵ꗎꪺ돒냊ꑈ볆군ꪺꑀ뫘ꑵ꣣ꅁ꣒꙰ꅇ덺륌맪엧귌ꕩꕈꪾ륄Ꙣ싹ꥍ룪ꖻ꣏ꗎ뙱ꅁ뙩ꛓꡍꥷ귓ꝏ늣뙱ꅁ땍ꯡꡃꑀ듁ꪺꙖ쑶믹꒤라ꚬ샄ꛜ걙ꑀ믹껦ꅁꕈꝑꗎ맪엧륃삸엧ꞡ뿅믹껦꒧ꡍꥷꅁꝙꕩ녎꧒ꚳ냑뭐Ꙑ뻇귓ꝏ늣뙱꒧샋걏ꝟꕩꗎ뉺꧊륷듁볒ꮬ꣓륷듺ꖫ돵믹껦ꕛ셠ꅁꕎꑊ낲ꥷꪺ믝ꡄ꣧볆꣓ꡄ녯ꅃ놵뗛ꙁꝑꗎꡃꅝWilliams, 1987ꅞꅃ꿷녎ꑗ굺꧒뒣꒧맪엧롧샙뻇ꑀ듁꧒ꚨ꒧ꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺ껉뚡Ꟈꙃ룪껆ꅁ꛴군ꞡ뿅ꪺꓥ쑭ꕈꫭꑀ뻣뉺꒧ꅃ 믹껦ꥍ꣤뢨ꯡ듁꒧뚡ꪺDGPꅃꕈꑕ녎녱뉺뷗뮡ꛓMillerꅝ1999ꅞꟳ뙩ꑀꡂ녎맪엧륃삸ꪺ랧꧀ꧺꅂ듁ꞡ뿅떲ꩇꕈ맪엧륃삸떲멣뭐덗ꭨꑔꓨ궱ꥍ롧샙뻇ꕛꕈ떲Ꙙꅁꝑꗎ맪엧륃삸꣓샋엧롧샙뉺꣓낵뮡ꧺꅃ 뷗ꅃꗑꚹꕩꢣꅁꚳꝏ꧳뛇닎맪쏒롧샙ꕵꝑꗎ맪믚ꪺ닎군룪껆Ꝁ롧샙뉺뷗ꪺ맪쏒ꅁ맪엧롧샙ꕩꕈ덝군룻ꑀꅂ뉺뷗뮡ꧺ 닅Ꙙ뉺뷗꧒낲덝ꪺ샴맒ꅁꕈ궰ꝃ꣤ꕌꭄ놱꣮ꙝ꿀맯ꖫ돵ꪺ떲멣Ꙣ롧샙뻇꒤ꑪ교ꑗꕩ꓀Ꙣꞹꗾ쑶떲ꩇꪺ뱶암ꅁꣃ덺륌맪엧꧒녯ꪺ볆뻚ꕛꕈ꓀꩒꣓엧ꪧꖫ돵꒤ꅁ늣ꭾꪺꞡ뿅믹껦ꅝPꅞ걏ꗑꖫ돵ꪺ꣑떹쏒롧샙뻇뉺뷗ꅃ꧒ꕈ맪엧롧샙ꑷꛦ꒧ꚳ꙾ꅁꑝ덑덜ꥍ믝ꡄ꧒ꡍꥷꪺꅆ땵듁꒺ꅁꗍ늣ꕩ꿠ꚳꅵ뙗썂ꝑꙨꪺ롧샙뻇뒶륍ꪺ륂ꗎꙢꙕ뫘롧샙뉺뷗ꪺ곣ꡳ볭띬ꖢꅶ꙳Ꙣꅁꝙꞡ뿅믹껦ꑪ꧳듁ꖭꞡꚨꖻꅝPꥍ롧샙냝썄ꪺ놴끑ꅃ ꇖATCꅞꞡ뿅믹껦ꑰ꧳듁ꖭꞡꚨꖻꅝPꇕ쏶꧳곣ꡳꞡ뿅믹껦걏ꝟ떥꧳뉺뷗믹껦ꪺ맪엧ATCꅞꅁ듁ꑕꅁ뙒ꓨꥍ뷦ꓨꕩ꿠라엜ꗍ늣덗꒣ꓖꅝ꣒꙰ꅇChamberlin, Smith, Hessꅞꅁꛓꖻ맪엧볒걏껸뙏ꮬ멁ꅁ꧒ꕈꗍ늣녎ꕵꚳꅵꖿ녠ꝑ볭ꅶꥍ덯롧샙맪엧꒣Ꙑ꒧덂ꕩ둎맪엧덝군ꥍ곣ꡳꓨꞡ뿅믹껦떥꧳듁ꖭꚨꖻꅝP = ATCꅞꅃ ꩫ꣢ꓨ궱꣓낵냏꓀ꅃꛓꅵ맪엧덝군ꅶꑓꕩ녱맪엧꒤ 맯믝ꡄꥍ꣑떹ꪺ덝군Ꝁꓱ룻ꅃ궺ꗽꕈ믝ꡄꪺ덝군꣓곝ꅇꙢ맪엧ꪺ샴맒덝군ꑗꅁꭥ굺맪엧걏떹ꥷ냑뭐돌ꝃꪺ뷦믹ꥍ돌낪ꪺ뙒믹ꅁꕈꡍꥷꗦ꧶믹껦ꅁꛓꖻ맪엧ꪺꖫ돵믝ꡄ뵵걏륱뢣덝ꥷꙮꪺꅁꗍ늣ꕩꛛꗑ뿯뻜뭻결빁Ꙙꪺ룪ꖻ뙱ꥍ돒냊뙱ꕈꡍꥷ꣑떹뙱ꅝ꙰맏ꑀꅞꅃꙝꚹꙢ꣮ꯗꑗꅁ륌ꕨ맪엧ꪺꖫ돵ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦걏ꗑ뙒뷦싹ꓨꙀꙐꡍꥷꅁꖻ맪엧ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦걏ꯘꗟꙢ륃삸ꪺ냑뭐ꕩꕈꛛꗑ뙩ꑊꥍ끨ꕘꪺ꽓꧊ꑕꅁꗑ뷦ꓨꪺ꣑떹뙱꧒ꡍꥷꅁꗧꝙ믹껦ꡍꥷꙢꗍ늣궱ꅃ ꛜ꧳꣑떹ꪺ덝군ꅁꕈ냑뭐ꛦ결꣓뮡ꅁ륌ꕨ맪엧ꪺ륃삸냑뭐걏Ꙣ끬ꡄ껸뙏돑빬ꥍꗍ늣돑 맏ꑀꅂ엜ꟳ롧샧ꡍ떦맏ꗜ 빬돌ꑪꅁꛓꖻ맪엧ꪺ륃삸냑뭐걏ꕈꝑ볭돌ꑪ결ꗘ룪껆꣓랽ꅇ 볐ꅃꕴꕾꖻ맪엧걏ꕈ뫴룴뙩ꛦ륃삸ꅁꕩꙐ껉륆250ꑈꙀꙐ냑뭐ꅁ꧳ꑀ듁ꪺꗦ꧶ꙞꙘ떲ꟴꭥꅁꑝ꒣꣼껉궭꣮쁈껉ꑗ뫴뙩ꛦꗍ늣ꡍ떦엜ꟳꅁ뫴룴라닖뽮ꡃ귓ꑈꪺꝑ볭ꅁ뙩ꛦ둉뮨뇆ꛦꅝꢣ맏ꑇꅞꅁ떹꒩ꕛ꓀ꪺ릪쁹ꅃ ꛓꅵ곣ꡳꓨꩫꅶꪺ깴ꝏꙢ꧳ꅁ륌ꕨꪺ맪엧걏ꛒ뙱륃삸꒤뙩ꛦ볆ꚸꙞꙘ꧒녯ꪺꖭꞡ믹껦라떥꧳ꞡ 뿅믹껦ꅁꙁꓱ룻맪엧꧒녯ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦ꥍ뉺뷗ꪺꞡ뿅 뗹1믹껦걏ꝟ곛떥ꅃ꒣륌ꅁ낣ꑆꑗ굺ꪺꓨꩫ꒧ꕾꅁꖻ곣 DGPꅇ껉뚡Ꟈꙃ엜볆Pꪺ꣧볆쏶ꭙ t24 녍썄곣ꡳ뻇ꗍ뷗ꓥ뚰닄ꑀ듁/ꗁ냪ꑅꑑꑇ꙾꒻ꓫ
ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵듁ꞡ뿅엧ꅇ맪엧롧샙뻇 ꫭꑀꅂꚳ쏶맪엧롧샙뻇ꪺꓥ쑭뻣뉺 Ꝁ 맪 엧 ꗘ ꪺ 맪 엧 ꪺ 롧 샙 뉺 뷗 맪 엧 덝 군 ꪺ ꒺ 깥 맪 엧 녯 ꣬ ꪺ 떲 뷗 Chamberlin Ꙣ꒣ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꑕꅁ곣 Ꙣ꒣ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꑕꅁ맪 녎뻇ꗍ꓀결뙒뷦싹ꓨꅁ냑뭐ꛛꗑ둍돌ꙮꪺꗦ꧶맯Ꙣ46ꚸ맪엧꒤ꅁ맪믚냢뙱ꚳ42(1948) ꡳ뉺뷗ꖫ돵ꥍ맪엧ꖫ돵꒧ 엧ꖫ돵ꪺꖭꞡ믹껦ꥍꗦ꧶ 뙈ꅃꑀ듁ꪺꗦ꧶ꙞꙘ떲ꟴ꒧ꯡꅁ뙒뷦싹ꓨ꺳ꪺ믹껦꦳땐ꚸꑪ꧳ꞡ뿅냢뙱ꅁ4ꚸꑀ볋ꅃꖭ뚡ꖭꞡ믹껦ꥍꖭꞡ냢뙱ꪺ 볆뙱삳떥꧳꣑떹뵵ꥍ믝ꡄ 라궫띳걾땐ꅃ ꞡ믹껦ꚳ7ꚸꑪ꧳ꞡ뿅믹껦ꅁꚳ깴늧ꅃ 뵵ꗦ쉉꧒ꡍꥷꪺꞡ뿅믹껦 39ꚸꑰ꧳ꞡ뿅믹껦ꅃ녯꣬믹껦ꪺ뭐볆뙱ꅃ ꩩ냊꣏녯빐냢볆뙱뒶륍ꑪ꧳ꞡ뿅볆뙱ꪺ떲뷗ꅃ Smith 롧ꗑ덳쓲ꪺ맪엧륃삸덝군 맪엧ꪺ냓ꭾꖫ돵꒤ꅁꗑ돌 녎뻇ꗍ꓀결뙒ꓨꥍ뷦ꓨ2많엩ꅁ뙒뷦싹ꓨ꒽뙽돛믹ꅁꑀꙢ룪끔꒽뙽꒧ꑕꝙ꣏ꑈ볆ꓖꅁ(1962) ꣓곣ꡳꅁ맪엧ꑕꪺ꣑믝놡 ꦳믹껦닕ꚨꪺ꣑떹ꥍ돌낪 ꚸ낦ꗦ꧶ꑀ귓돦ꛬ꒸ꅁꑀ듁ꪺꗦ꧶ꙞꙘ떲ꟴ꒧ꯡꅁ뙒ꓨꕵ굮꿠롔ꓮ뙒뷦싹ꓨꦼꚹ꓄떲ꅁ걏ꝟ놵꫱냓ꭾꖫ돵꒤ꗑ 믹껦닕ꚨꪺ믝ꡄ삳놵꫱땵 꺳ꪺ꦳땐꒴걏Ꙑꑀ녩ꅁ뷦ꓨꕩꙢ곛Ꙑꪺ돌ꝃ믹껦ꑕ샲녯둎꿠륆꣬쑶ꪧ껉ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦ꅃ 돌ꝃ믹껦꧒닕ꚨꪺ꣑믝ꚱ 듁ꪺ꣑떹ꥍ믝ꡄ뉺뷗ꅃ 띳ꪺꗍ늣볆뙱ꅃ 뵵ꅃ Hess Ꙣ꒣ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꑕꅁ룪 룪끔ꞹꗾꑕꅁ맪믚믹껦떥 뙒뷦싹ꓨ꒽뙽돛믹ꅁ럭ꕵꚳꑀꛬ뙒ꓨ돛믹ꅁꥍꑀꛬ뷦ꓨ맪엧떲ꩇ쏒ꧺꙢ룪끔꒣ꞹꗾꑕꖭ(1972) 끔꒣ꞹꗾ맯ꖫ돵믹껦ꪺ뱶암ꅃ꧳뉺뷗믹껦ꅆ룪끔꒣ꞹꗾꑕꅁ놵꣼ꅁꝙ륆ꚨꗦ꧶ꅁꚨꗦ믹꒽뙽뱧Ꙣ뛂ꑗꅁꡃꑀꙞꙘꞡꗦ꧶믹껦라엣뗛ꪺ꒣Ꙑ꧳뉺뷗맪믚믹껦ꑪ꧳뉺뷗믹 떲ꟴꯡꅁ궫띳ꗦ뒫꦳땐ꅃ녱ꡃꑀꙞꙘꪺꗦ꧶꒤ꅁ뙒뷦싹ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦ꅃ롧ꗑ뻇닟껄ꩇꅁ껦ꅃ ꓨ늣ꗍ뻇닟껄ꩇꅁ꣏ꗦ꧶ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦늣ꗍ엜냊ꅃ ꕩ꣏륷듁믹껦뛉Ꙗ맪믚믹껦ꅃ Williams ꝑꗎ맪엧덝군꧒녯꣬ꪺ왛 굙ꖫ돵믹껦ꕩ롧ꗑ뉺꧊륷 Ꙣ맪엧덝군ꪺ12귓ꖫ돵꒤ꅁ낣ꚳꑀ귓ꖫ돵ꚳ7ꛬ뙒ꓨꥍ떲ꩇ엣ꗜꅁ맪엧왛맮룪껆ꥍꚳ뉺(1987) 맮룪껆ꅁ꣓샋엧믹껦걏ꝟ 듁볒ꮬ꣓륷듺ꅁꭨꖫ돵때 7ꛬ뷦ꓨ꒧ꕾꅁ꣤빬ꖫ돵뙒뷦싹ꓨ곒결6ꛬꅃ꣤꒤9귓ꖫ꧊륷듁낲덝걏ꑀ교ꪺꅃ ꕩ롧ꗑ뉺꧊륷듁꣓ꚨꅃ 껄뉶ꅁꚳ깍ꝑ뚡ꅃ 돵(110ꛬ냑뭐)ꕈ싹ꓨ쑶믹ꪺꓨꚡ뙩ꛦ맪엧ꅃꕴ3귓ꖫ돵(36ꛬ냑뭐)ꝑꗎꝀ룕엧ꅃ Mestelman 곣ꡳ맪엧ꖫ돵ꑕꅁꙢꭥ ꒽뙽뷦믹ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦라ꑪ ꒽뙽뷦믹-뷦ꓨꕩꙢꑀ듁뙽ꥬꭥ2꓀쓁Ꝁ믹껦ꡍꥷ4꓀Ꙣꭥꗍ늣ꑕ싹Ꙗ쑶믹룻꒽뙽뷦and ꗍ늣ꪺꭥ뒣ꑕ꒽뙽뷦믹ꥍ ꧳싹Ꙗ쑶믹ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦ꅃ 쓁ꭥꝀ믹껦ꥍ늣ꕘꡍꥷꅁꣃꙢ륃삸뙽ꥬꭥ돸ꝩ떹뷕걤믹ꟳꚳ껄뉶ꅃ Welland 싹Ꙗ쑶믹꛳꣣ꚳ껄뉶ꅃ 귻ꅃꭥꑔꙞꙘꪺꗦ꧶놡뎣라덑꒽뙽Ꙣ뛂ꑗꅃ싹Ꙗ쑶(1988) 믹-ꕈꑦ쁙ꗦ꧶ꅁ뷦ꓨ꒣꒽뙽땯ꫭꡍꥷꅁ뇄ꕈ싐ꪺ쑶믹ꓨꚡꅁꡃꑀꚸꕩꗦ꧶2돦ꛬ꒸ꅃ Oxoby 뙩ꛦ뽗ꖫ돵ꪺ맪엧륃삸ꅁ꓀럭뽗ꪺꚨꖻ룪끔걏꒽ ꕈ5ꑈ(AꅂBꅂCꅂDꅂE)결ꑀ많엩ꅁA-D결껸뙏ꅁꕴꕩ룑쓀꒽Ꙁ끝꙳Ꙣꪺ뉺ꗑꥍ꒣ꑺ(2001) ꩒덹ꚨ뽗ꖫ돵껄뉶ꝃ 뙽껉ꅁ껸뙏ꚳ엽뽗 ꑀ결뽗ꗍ늣ꅁꡃꑀ많뚤뙩ꛦ8ꚸ룕엧ꅁꭥ4귓룕엧ꅁ꽁걆떦걏때껄뉶ꪺꅃ 뢨ꪺ귬ꙝꅃ 뒣꣑떥귈ꪺ믹껦ꥍ볆뙱ꪺ ꗍ늣ꚨꖻ결ꡰꑈ룪끔ꅁꯡ4귓룕엧료ꅁ뽗뒫ꑈꅁꗍ삣ꑏꅃ 늣ꚨꖻ꒽뙽ꅃ뽗ꡍꥷ빐냢믹껦꒽ꝩ떹껸뙏ꅁꛓ껸뙏땯ꫭ띑쇊뙒ꪺ볆뙱ꅃ닄ꑇꙞꙘ꒤ꅁ뽗ꕩ엜닄ꑇꚸ믹껦ꅁꭐ꣏빐냢뙱뱗ꕛꅁꛓ껸뙏ꕩꙁ엜ꟳ쇊뙒뙱ꅁ꒣꿠꣺껸닄ꑀꚸꪺ볆뙱ꅃ 룪껆꣓랽ꅇ룔ꢣ냑ꛒꓥ쑭ꅁꖻ곣ꡳ뻣뉺 25 녍썄곣ꡳ뻇ꗍ뷗ꓥ뚰닄ꑀ듁/ꗁ냪ꑅꑑꑇ꙾꒻ꓫ
Ꝥ꣎뽯 ꕛ늣뙱ꅁ덹ꚨꖫ돵ꪺ셠꣑떹뙱뱗ꕛꅁꙢ셠믝ꡄ꒣엜꒧ꑕꅁ셠꣑떹뵵라ꦵ뗛셠믝ꡄ뵵Ꙗꕫꑕꓨ늾냊ꅁ꣏ꖫ돵믹껦ꑕ뙞ꅃ ꛓ럭ꖫ돵믹껦ꑕ뙞뙗륌ꖭꞡꚨꖻ돌ꝃ쉉껉ꅁꝙꚳ솫띬놡늣ꗍꅁ때ꩫ꣼솫띬ꪺ뱴냓라듮ꓖ늣뙱걏끨ꕘꖫ돵ꅆꚹ껉ꅁꖫ돵ꪺ셠꣑떹뙱듮ꓖꅁꖫ돵믹껦Ꙟꅃ꧒ꕈ꙰ꩇꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵뉺뷗ꚨꗟꅁ땵듁꒺ꅁ꙰맏ꅝBꅞ꧒ꗜꅁ셡뙢ꕎꫭ믹껦ꅝPꅞꅁ뻮뙢ꕎꫭ껉뚡ꅝTꅞꅁ셠꣑떹뵵라ꙝ셠꣑떹뙱ꪺ뱗ꕛ듮ꓖꛓꙢ셠믝ꡄ뵵ꑗꙖꕫꑕꓨ걏ꖪꑗꓨ늾냊ꅁ꣏믹껦ꝥ뉻ꩩ냊ꅃꙢ듁ꑕꅁ믹껦ꪺ껉뚡Ꟈꙃ엜꓆라멃 맏ꑇꅂ둉뮨뇆ꛦ멝 멃ꚬꛜ듁ꖭꞡꚨꖻꪺ돌ꝃ쉉ꅁ꙰맏ꅝCꅞ꧒ꗜꅃ룪껆꣓랽ꅇ 덯ꖿ걏ꖻ곣ꡳ링룕엧쏒ꪺꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵듁ꞡ뿅 뉺뷗ꅁ싇ꗑ땵듁ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺ엜꓆뇀꛴듁믹껦ꅁꙝꗍ늣ꗍ늣ꗴ꛳ꑀ뚵늣ꭾꅁ곒ꖲ뚷굮ꚳꅵꙐ껉샋엧륃삸냑뭐걏ꝟ라싇ꗑꡃꑀ듁ꪺꞡ뿅믹ꑊꅶꅁ꣒꙰ꅇ돒ꑏꅂ룪ꖻ덎떥ꅃ덯ꑊꅁ뫙껦늣ꗍ뻇닟껄ꩇꅁ꣏믹껦엜냊ꪺ둔ꯗ덶몥엜ꑰꅁ돌결ꅵꗍ늣굮꿀ꅶꅁꗍ늣굮꿀멣ꚨꑀꗍ늣꣧볆ꅁꛓ늣ꯡ륆ꚨ듁ꞡ뿅ꅃ 뙱ꥍ꣏ꗎꪺꗍ늣굮꿀ꚳꯜꑪꪺ쏶ꭙꅁ꒣Ꙑꪺ굮꿀꧱뙩ꗍ늣꣧볆꒤ꅁꭨ라늣ꗍ꒣Ꙑꪺ늣뙱ꅃꙢ롧샙ꖫꑔꅂ맪엧륃삸떲멣뭐덗ꭨ 돵꒤ꅁ껸뙏ꥍꗍ늣뎣Ꙣ끬ꡄꛛꢭꪺ몡ꢬꥍ껄ꗎꖻ곣ꡳꕈ꒤귬ꑪ뻇램ꮳ륁뇐뇂ꪺ뇂뷒뻇ꗍ냑돌ꑪꅁ둎ꗍ늣ꛓꢥꝙ결끬ꡄꝑ볭랥ꑪ꓆ꅁꙢꚹꑀ뭐91뻇꙾ꯗꭄꙐꡂ뮷뙚뇐뻇뫴룴꒤ꪺꗸ띾ꗍ늣ꡍꗘ볐ꑕꅁ라뿯뻜꣏ꗎꙨꓖ굮꿀ꅂꗍ늣Ꙩꓖ냓ꭾꅃ 떦륃삸ꅵ뷖걏ꛑ쇳ꅶꝀ결왛맮볋ꖻꅁ뫴꾸꒧뫴Ᵹ결귌륂ꗎꝑ볭랥ꑪ꓆볒ꮬꅝꅞꚡꅁꝀꑀ뚥 Millerꅝ1999ꅞ뒣ꕘꪺ맪엧롧샙륃삸랧꧀ꅁ꣓볒샀Max π = TR - TC ꑀ귓꫱ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꪺꖫ돵ꅁꣃ싇ꚹ꣺녯맪엧꒤꧒늣S= Pq -ꅝw L + r Kꅞ ꗍꞡ뿅믹ꪺ껉뚡Ꟈꙃ룪껆ꅁ꣓샋ꥷꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵α β= PꅝA LKꅞ-ꅝw L + r Kꅞ ꅝꅞ 듁ꞡ뿅걏ꝟ꙰뉺뷗꒧륷듁라ꚬ샄ꛜ뱴냓ꪺ듁ꖭα-1 β∂π = α PꅝA LKꅞ- w = 0 ꅝꅞ ꞡꚨꖻꪺ돌ꝃ쉉ꅃ ∂L륃삸꒤ꅁꗍ늣ꕩꛛꗑꡍꥷꑊꪺꗍ늣굮꿀ꅁα β-1∂π = β PꅝA LKꅞ- r = 0 ꅝꅞ ꙁ끴Ꙙꥷꪺ믝ꡄ꣧볆ꅁꕈꡍꥷ럭듁늣ꭾꪺ믹껦ꅃ∂Kꛓꚳ쏶ꚹ뫴룴륃삸ꪺ냲ꖻ덗ꭨꕩ꓀결ꅵ믝ꡄꪺ낲α−1βMPαP(ALK)wL =−=0덝ꅶꅂꅵ꣑떹ꪺ낲덝ꅶꅂꅵꖫ돵믹껦볆뙱ꪺꡍꥷꅶꑔαβ−1MPβP(ALK)rKꓨ궱꣓뮡ꧺꅇ MPαKwL ==믝ꡄꪺ낲덝 MPβLrKꚡ꒤π결ꝑ볭ꅁTR결셠ꚬꑊꅁTC결셠ꚨꖻꅁꙢ덯귓뗪샀ꪺꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵꒤ꅁ귌낲덝믝ꡄSP결ꞡ뿅믹껦ꅁq결귓ꝏꗍ늣꧒ꡍꥷꪺ늣뙱ꅁA꣧볆결ꑀ뗪샀ꪺꥷ귈ꅁ낲ꥷ결ꅇ d결덎볆ꅁα결돒냊늣ꕘꪺ뱵꧊ꅁβ결룪ꖻ늣ꕘ믝ꡄ꣧볆결Q = a + b P dꪺ뱵꧊ꅁLꅂK결뿯뻜ꪺꑊꗍ늣굮꿀ꅁꗍ늣라ꡃꑀ듁ꪺ믝ꡄ뙱곛ꙐꅁQ결ꖫ돵ꪺ셠믝ꡄ뙱ꅁaꅂ릵ꗎꪺ돒냊뙱ꥍ꣏ꗎꪺ룪ꖻ뙱ꅁwꅂr결ꑵ룪ꥍꝑb결ꥷꪺ녠볆귈ꅁꛓ꣑떹ꭨꗑ냑뭐맪엧륃삸ꪺꙐMPwαK뻇꧒ꡍꥷ꒧늣뙱ꕛ셠ꛓ녯ꅁ꣏믹껦ꡍꥷ꧳꣑떹궱ꅁ꺧ꅃꙝꚹ싇ꗑꑗꚡ뇀뻉ꅁꕩꕈ녯꣬L==ꝙ럭꣑떹뙱뱗ꕛꅁ믹껦ꑕ뙞ꅁ꒧ꅁ꣑떹뙱듮ꓖꅁMPrβLK믹껦ꑗꅃ ꝙ결돌꣎ꪺꗍ늣굮꿀ꑊꓱ꣒ꅃ ꣑떹ꪺ낲덝 ꑇꅂ듁ꞡ뿅떲ꩇ Ꙣꚹ륃삸녎ꗍ늣꣧볆ꑪ교꓀결돒냊ꑊ뙱ꅂ룪귌ꕩꕈꗎ맏꣓ꫭꗜꅁꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵뉺뷗ꖻꑊ뙱ꗍ늣덎ꑔꓨ궱ꅁ륃삸꒤귓ꝏꗍ늣ꪺꑗ믹껦ꪺ엜꓆놡ꅁ꙰맏ꅝAꅞ꧒ꗜꅁ결뉺뷗ꑗ뱴ꗍ늣꣧볆걏Cobb-Douglasꗍ늣꣧볆ꅁꫭꗜ결ꅇ 냓ꪺ듁ꚨꖻ엜꓆ꅁ셡뙢ꕎꫭ믹껦ꅝPꅞꅁ뻮뙢ꕎꫭSq = f ( A, L, K ) 볆뙱ꅝQꅞꅁMCꕎꫭ쏤믚ꚨꖻꅁATCꕎꫭ뱴냓ꪺSα β q = A L K듁ꖭꞡ셠ꚨꖻꅁ럭ꖫ돵믹껦낪꧳ꖭꞡꚨꖻ돌ꝃ쉉Sꑗꚡ꒤q 결귓ꝏꗍ늣ꡍꥷꪺ늣뙱ꅁAꕎꫭ덎ꪺ껉귔ꅁꚳ뙗썂ꝑ볭꙳ꙢꅝPꇖATCꪺ뎡ꗷꅞꅁ냲볆ꅁ낲ꥷ결ꑀ녠볆뚵ꅁꫭꗜꗘꭥꡃꛬꗍ늣ꪺ꧳ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵료ꅁ띳ꗍ늣ꕩꛛꗑꕛꑊꅁ귬ꗍ늣덎ꓴ럇ꞡ곛Ꙑꅃꕴꕾꅁα걏돒냊늣ꕘꪺ뱵꧊ꅁβ걏ꕩꛛꗑ끨ꕘꪺ꽓꧊ꅁ라뮤꣏뱴냓뙩ꑊꖫ돵걏뱗26 녍썄곣ꡳ뻇ꗍ뷗ꓥ뚰닄ꑀ듁/ꗁ냪ꑅꑑꑇ꙾꒻ꓫ
ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵듁ꞡ뿅엧ꅇ맪엧롧샙뻇 룪ꖻ늣ꕘꪺ뱵꧊ꅃ륃삸료ꅁ귌낲ꥷꥷ덗볒돸땵듁ꖭꞡꚨꖻꪺ돌ꝃ쉉ꅁꑝ둎걏ꥷ덗볒ꑕꪺ돌빁륓ꅁꝙα + β = 1ꅁLꥍKꭨ걏륃삸꒤ꪺꡍ떦엜룪닕Ꙙꅁꙁ쎸뭳ꙕ닕땵듁ꖭꞡꚨꖻꪺꕝ떸뵵ꅁꕩ볆ꅁꗍ늣ꕩꕈꗴ띎뿯뻜돒냊ꑊ뙱ꥍ룪ꖻꑊꕈꕘ듁ꖭꞡꚨꖻꪺ돌ꝃ쉉꙰맏ꕼꅁ셡뙢ꫭꗜꚨ뙱ꅁ덺륌ꗍ늣꣧볆ꅁꭋꕩꡍꥷ늣뙱ꅃ ꖻꅝCꅞꅁ뻮뙢ꫭꗜ늣뙱ꅝQꅞꅃ뉺뷗ꑗ땵듁ꖭꞡꚨ ꖻꪺꕝ떸뵵삳결U꙲ꮬꅁꙝꖻ맪엧륃삸꧒떹ꥷ ꪺꗍ늣닕Ꙙ꒣냷Ꙩꅁ걇맏ꕵꚳ땵듁ꖭꞡꚨꖻꕝ떸 P P P MC 뵵ꪺꖪꕢ뎡ꅝ꙰맏꒭ꅞꅆꑓꙝ결듁ꑕꅁꥷ덗볒 ATC *돸륓ꅝα + β = 1ꅞꅁ꧒ꕈꚱ뵵ꪺ꦳뎡ꝥ뉻ꓴꖭP T T ꪬꅃ Q 냑ꅂ맪엧떲ꩇ꓀꩒ ꅝAꅞ ꅝBꅞ ꅝCꅞ 맏ꑔꅂꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꚨꖻ뭐믹껦껉뚡Ꟈꙃ엜꓆쏶ꭙ 뉺뷗ꪺ듁ꞡ뿅믹껦 맏 뻚ꑗꑀ뎹꧒뒣꣬ꪺꅁ뱴냓Ꙣꝑ볭랥ꑪ꓆ꪺ귬 ꑊꪺꗍ늣굮꿀ꑝ믝굮ꚨꖻꅁꑵ룪w결돒냊Lꑊꪺꚨꖻꅂꝑ꺧r결룪ꖻKꑊꪺꚨꖻꅁ덯꣢뚵ꭨꑕꅁ돌빁ꪺꗍ늣굮꿀ꑊꓱ꣒결 ꚨꖻꙢ륃삸꒤덝결ꥷ꒣엜ꪺꕾꗍ엜볆ꅁꛓꚹ껉ꗍꫭꑇꅂ돌빁ꗍ늣굮꿀닕Ꙙ꣤ꖭꞡꚨꖻ 늣ꪺ셠ꚨꖻꝙ결ꅇ 룪ꖻ 돒냊꙾ꝑ뉶ꓫꑵ룪셠ꚨꖻ 늣뙱 ꖭꞡꚨꖻꅝKꅞ ꅝLꅞꅝrꅞꅝwꅞꅝTCꅞ ꅝQꅞ ꅝATCꅞTC = w L+ r K 륃삸꒤ꕩ뿯뻜ꪺ돒냊ꑈ볆결0ꑈ3ꛜ11ꑈꅁꕈ 뻣볆돦ꛬꅃꕴ륃삸료ꕩ뿯뻜ꪺ룪ꖻ결0꒸꣬4ꑤ롕꒸ꅁꕈꡃ5ꛊ롕결엜냊돦ꛬꅃ륃삸꒤ꪺ돒냊ꥍ룪ꖻ꣏ꗎ뙱걏ꗍ늣ꕩꕈ뿯뻜ꪺ닕Ꙙꅃꛓ륃삸꒤ꪺꑵ룪ꥍꝑ꺧걏ꗑ꡴닎떹ꥷꪺ녠볆귈ꅁ꓀ꝏ결ꑵ룪ꡃꑀꑈꡃꑀ귓ꓫ2롕꒸ꅁ룪ꖻꝑ꺧ꑀ꙾8 %ꅃ ꖫ돵믹껦볆뙱ꪺꡍꥷ Ꙣ덯귓뗪샀ꖫ돵꒤ꅁ믹껦ꕵ롧ꗑ셠꣑떹뙱ꡍSSꥷꅁꑝ둎걏녎ꙕꗍ늣ꪺ늣뙱ꕛ셠ꝙQ = ꅁ∑S룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ군뫢 Q결럭듁ꖫ돵셠늣뙱ꕎꑊ믝ꡄ꣧볆ꝙꕩ녯꣬럭듁ꪺꖫ돵믹껦Pꅃ꧒ꕈꗍ늣ꪺ셠ꚬꑊ둎떥꧳믹껦궼MPαKwLꅃ귌ꝑꗎ륃삸꧒덝ꥷꪺꗍ늣꣧==ꕈ귓ꑈꗽꭥ꧒ꡍꥷ꒧ꗍ늣볆뙱ꅁꕈ볆뻇ꫭꗜ결: MPβLrKSTR =P q 볆ꅁα귈ꥍβ귈ꅁꕎꑊꑗꚡꕩꕈ녯꣬녎ꗍ늣ꪺ셠ꚬꑊTRꥍ셠ꚨꖻTC곛듮ꅁꝙꕩ녯MPw3꣬ꗍ늣Ꙣ럭듁샲녯꒧ꝑ볭πꅁ결ꖿꫭꗜ륃삸냑뭐Lꅁ껚뻚ꚹꑀꓱ꣒ꅁ귌ꥷ륃삸꒤ꕩ==MP2r럭듁쇈뿺ꅁ결굴ꫭꗜ륃삸냑뭐럭듁뷟뿺ꅃ KꙢ륃삸꒤귌ꕈꕢꓑ결ꑀ귓군뫢뙧듁ꅁ뫙결ꑀ뿯뻜ꪺ룪ꖻ뿯뚵ꅁꕩꕈꕘꙢ꽓ꥷ룪ꖻꑕ돌빁ꪺ돒듁ꅁꑝ둎걏ꡃꓑ군뫢ꑇꚸꖫ돵ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦볆뙱ꅃ냊ꑈ볆ꅁ뙩ꛓꕘꙕ뫘ꚨꖻ닕Ꙙꑕꪺꖭꞡꚨꖻ돌ꝃ껚뻚ꭥ궱꧒굺ꅁꕩꕈ군뫢ꕘꗍ늣ꪺꝑ볭ꅁꣃꕂ녎쉉ꅁ녎뻚돌빁굮꿀ꑊꓱ꣒꧒군뫢ꕘꪺ셠ꚨꖻꅂ륃삸냑뭐ꪺꝑ볭닖뽮꣬꣤귓ꑈ끝둉꒤ꅃꡃꓑꪺ늣뙱ꥍꖭꞡꚨꖻꕈꫭ2ꫭꗜ꒧ꅃ ꗑꫭꑇꕩꕈ녯ꪾꅁꙢ돌빁ꗍ늣굮꿀ꪺ땵듁ꖭꞡ01:00ꥍ13:00꒧ꭥꗍ늣뎣ꕩꕈ엜ꛛꑶꪺꗍ늣굮꿀ꑊ닕Ꙙꅁꑀꖹꡍꥷꯡꅁꝙ꒣꿠ꙁꟳꅃ꙰ꩇꚨꖻꞡ결꒸ꅁꙝꚹꅁꙢꚹ륃삸꧒낲덝ꪺ럭듁ꡓꚳ엜ꗍ늣닕Ꙙꅁꭨꛛ냊ꦵꗎꑗꑀ듁ꪺLꅂꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꑕꅁ듁ꞡ뿅믹껦결꒸ꅃKꑊ뙱군뫢늣뙱ꅃ뫴꾸Ꙑ껉ꑝ곶뿽ꡃꑀꛬ륃삸냑껚뻚ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꪺ꽓꧊ꅁ귌낲덝ꖫ돵ꪺ듁ꞡ뭐ꪺ뙩꾸ꚸ볆ꥍ껉뚡ꅁꣃꙢꡃꚸ떲뫢ꞹ늦ꯡ꒽ꝇ뿅믹라ꚬ샄ꛜ꒸ꅃ C ꭥꑀ듁ꪺꖫ돵믹껦ꅃ 냑뭐맪엧륃삸ꪺꙐ뻇라쁈껉럓귓ꑈꙢꡃꑀ SAC 듁꧒녯꣬ꝑ볭ꪺ닖뽮ꅁꙢ뫴룴ꑗ뇆ꙗꣃ꒽ꝇꅁ뇆ꙗ LAC ꙢꭥꪺꙐ뻇떹꒩ꕛ꓀ꅁꕈꓞ땯Ꙑ뻇냑뭐ꪺ뾳뷬ꥍ쇈 뿺ꪺꚨ둎띐ꅆ솫띬뙗륌ꑀꥷ썂ꪺꙐ뻇ꭨ꡴닎ꛛ냊 궢꣤ꅵ끨ꕘꖫ돵ꅶꅁꝙ꒣꿠ꙁ뙩ꛦꡍ떦ꅁꕈ닅Ꙙꞹ ꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵꒤뱴냓땯ꗍ띬ꖢ껉라끨ꕘꖫ돵ꕈ듮ꓖ Q 띬ꖢꪺ꽓꧊ꅃ 맏ꕼꅂ뉺뷗꒧땵듁ꖭꞡꚨꖻꕝ떸뵵? 귌ꝑꗎꥷ룪ꖻꪺꓨꚡꅁꕘꙕ뫘룪ꖻꑕꪺ27 녍썄곣ꡳ뻇ꗍ뷗ꓥ뚰닄ꑀ듁/ꗁ냪ꑅꑑꑇ꙾꒻ꓫ
Ꝥ꣎뽯 ?ㄶ? G 룻ꓖꅆꙐ껉ꅁꑝꕩ왛맮꣬ꕵ굮륊꣬걐듁ꓩꅁ럭듁냑ㄵ? F B D 뭐ꡍ떦ꪺꑈ볆덱녠둎라룻ꑗ듁듮ꓖꅝ꙰닄36듁ꅂㄴ? 닄50듁ꅂ닄64듁ꅂ닄78듁ꥍ닄92듁ꅞꅃꕴꕾꅁ E ㄳ? C ꗑ꧳뫴룴라ꙝ결ꩁ뺹땯ꗍ냝썄ꅁ냑뭐ꪺꙐ뻇때ꩫ ㄲ?덳떲ꑗ뫴꾸ꅁ뻉교ꚳ볆듁ꪺꡍ떦ꑈ볆륌ꓖꅁꙝꚹꅁ A ㄱ? 귌녎ꚳ냝썄ꪺ듁볆뇆낣ꅁ꒣꿇ꑊ떲ꩇ꓀꩒굙껚뻚 ? 럭듁ꖫ돵믹껦걏ꝟ낪뉺뷗ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦꣓꓀꩒ꅁꕩꕈ 㤰땯뉻귕굙럭듁ꖫ돵믹껦낪꧳뉺뷗ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦ꅁꗧꝙ ?????㐰〰㘰〰㠰〰〰?ㄲ〰??럭듁ꗍ늣꿠냷쇈꣺ꝑ볭ꅁꭨꑪ뎡ꗷꑕ듁ꪺꡍ떦ꑈ 볆둎ꚳ뱗Ꙩꪺ놡ꩰꅃ 맏꒭ꅇꥷ룪ꖻꑕ꒧땵듁ꖭꞡꚨꖻꕝ떸뵵 뗹ꅇꚱ뵵A ~ G꓀ꝏ결녎룪ꖻꥷꙢ5ꛊ롕ꅁ10ꛊ롕ꅂꛓꗑꫭ꒭ꕩꪾꅁꙢꚹꑀ륃삸꒤ꕵꚳ7ꑈꚳ쇈15ꛊ롕ꅂ20ꛊ롕ꅂ25ꛊ롕ꅂ30ꛊ롕ꅂ35ꛊ롕ꅂ40ꛊ롕뿺ꅁꑀꕢꕈꑗꪺꙐ뻇걏뷟뿺ꪺꅁꛓꚳ쇈뿺ꪺ륃삸냑껉ꅁ엜냊돒냊뙱ꪺ땵듁ꚨꖻꚱ뵵 뭐ꖭꞡꑗ꾸ꚸ볆결ꚸꅁ뇆ꙗꙢ돌ꯡꪺ꒭ꛬ륃삸냑뭐ꖭꞡꑗ꾸ꚸ볆ꑝꚳꚸꅃꙝꚹꅁ륃삸떲ꩇ꒧뇔굺닎군 둎륃삸냑뭐ꪺꝑ볭ꑗ꾸ꚸ볆꣓곝ꅁꑗ꾸ꚸ볆ꪺ놵뗛귌뙩ꛦꖫ돵ꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺ꓀꩒ꅁ궺ꗽ왛맮Ꙩ맨ꕩ꿠꒣걏ꡍꥷ륃삸냑뭐걏ꝟ꿠냷샲ꝑꪺ돌맏꒻ꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺ쇍뛕맏ꕩꕈ녯ꪾꅁ믹껦곹Ꙣ70ꛜꕄ굮ꙝ꿀ꅃ 110꒸냏뚡꫱ꩩ냊ꅁꛓꕂꅁꡃꑀꚸꪺꑗ몦ꥍꑕ뙞ꫭꑔꅂꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺ냲ꖻ뇔굺닎군 ꒧뚡ꩩ냊ꪺ둔ꯗ믡ꑪꅃ굙ꕈ뉺뷗ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦 믹 껦 ꒸결냲럇ꅁꚳ19듁ꪺ믹껦낪꧳ꞡ뿅믹볋ꖻ듁볆67껦ꅁ46듁ꝃ꧳ꞡ뿅믹껦ꅁꫭꗜ곹ꚳ %ꪺ뻷뉶ꅁ꫱1/3ꪺ뻷라륃삸냑뭐꿠냷쇈꣺ꝑ볭ꅃ ꖭꞡ믹 ꖻ륃삸Ꙁ뙩ꛦ95듁ꅁꭥ28듁결룕ꪱ뚥걱ꅁꗘ엜늧볆ꪺ걏엽Ꙑ뻇ꗽ보노륃삸뙩ꛦꪺꓨꚡꅁꙝꙢꚹ뚥걱Ꙑ볐럇뭾 뻇ꕩ꿠ꣃ꒣뉍랡륃삸떲뫢ꪺꓨꚡ걏꒣셁룑ꗍ늣ꡍ떦뿯뻜ꪺ볒ꚡꅁ걇꒣ꙃꑊꖻ곣ꡳꪺ왛맮듁볆ꅃ꧒깰 ꯗꕈꅁ녱닄29듁뙽ꥬꪺ껉뚡Ꟈꙃ룪껆ꅁ귌ꑾ꿇ꑊ낾 멁맪쏒ꪺ왛맮볋ꖻꅃꚳ쏶ꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺ뇔굺닎군꙰ꫭ돌ꝃ믹ꑔꅃ 돌낪믹 냲꧳ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵듁ꞡ뿅믹껦떥꧳뱴냓ꪺꖭꞡꚨꖻ돌ꝃ쉉ꪺ꽓꧊ꅁ꧒ꕈ륌ꕨ덜Ꙩꪺ롧샙맪엧낪꧳뉺뷗ꞡ뿅믹ꪺꚸ볆 19걏낲덝꒧ꖭꞡ믹껦떥꧳ꖫ돵ꪺ듁ꞡ뿅믹껦ꅁ꙰ꝃ꧳뉺뷗ꞡ뿅믹ꪺꚸ볆48Chamberlinꅝ1948ꅞꅂSmithꅝ1962ꅞꅂHessꅝ1972ꅞꅁ룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ군뫢 ꞡꕈ륃삸뙩ꛦ볆ꚸꙞꙘ꧒녯꒧ꖭꞡ믹껦ꥍ뱴냓ꪺꖭꞡꚨꖻ돌ꝃ쉉Ꝁ낲덝샋ꥷꅃꙢꖻ맪엧꒤ꅁ녱ꫭ3ꫭꕼꅂ륃삸ꙕ듁냑뭐ꗍ늣ꡍ떦ꑈ볆ꫭ ꕩꕈ녯ꪾ67듁ꪺꖭꞡꞡ뿅믹껦결꒸ꅁ볋ꡍ떦ꡍ떦 ꡍ떦 ꡍ떦듁볆듁볆듁볆 듁볆 ꖻꪺ엜늧볆룻ꑪꅁ깰ꯗꭙ볆ꑝꑰ꧳3ꅁꫭꗜ룪껆ꪺꑈ볆ꑈ볆 ꑈ볆 ꑈ볆2996461163 21 80 8 ꓀ꝇ룻ꖭꞡ꓀뒲꧳꣢뫝ꅁ결ꝃ쇯깰ꅁꑝ둎걏꧒띪뚰3047475164 12 81 18ꪺ볋ꖻ꒧꓀끴룻결꓀뒲ꅁꙝꚹꅁ굙ꕈ67듁ꪺꖭꞡ31106482065 20 82 10ꞡ뿅믹껦꣓듀ꕎ듁ꖫ돵ꞡ뿅믹껦ꕩ꿠룻꒣빁3272493566 21 83 19럭ꅆ낾멁ꭙ볆ꑰ꧳0ꅁꫭꗜ룪껆결ꖪ낾꓀끴ꅆꛓ돌3375501367 26 84 8 3432513768 18 85 2 ꝃ믹결륃삸ꖿꚡ뙽ꥬꪺ닄ꑀ듁ꅁ냑뭐륃삸ꪺꙐ뻇ꚳ3545524669 19 86 3 ꕩ꿠ꡓꩠ띎꣬륃삸ꖿꚡ뙽ꥬꪺ껉ꅁꟑ끏ꑗ뫴엜ꗍ3610532170 10 87 11늣ꡍ떦ꅁ뻉교닄ꑀ듁ꪺ꣑떹뙱륌Ꙩꅁꞡ뿅믹껦ꯜ37122541471 17 88 2 ꝃꅁ꒧ꯡꞡ뿅믹껦ꚳ덶몥ꑗꪺ쇍뛕ꅝꢣꑗ맏3839551572 10 89 5 ꒻ꅞꅃ3963562473 13 90 9 4032573074 13 91 8 륃삸Ꙁꚳ250ꛬꙐ뻇냑뭐ꅁ륃삸ꙕ듁냑뭐ꗍ늣4168581475 33 92 5 ꡍ떦ꑈ볆ꫭꅂꙕ듁냑뭐ꗍ늣ꡍ떦ꑈ볆ꪺ쇍뛕맏ꕈ4234593376 18 93 5 둉뮨뇆ꛦ멝ꢣꫭꕼꅂ맏ꑃꥍꫭ꒭ꅃ뫮Ꙙꫭꕼꥍ맏ꑃ4363601277 17 94 9 ꣓곝ꅁꙢ륃삸ꑀ뙽ꥬ껉ꅁꙐ뻇ꪺ냑뭐땻ꯗ믡낪ꅁ4424612478 9 95 104528621679 11 ꒧ꯡꕩ꿠ꙝ결볶ꯗ듮끨ꅁ걏륃삸ꪺ떲ꓮꓩꖿꙮ걏뗹ꅇ닄38듁ꅂ닄41듁ꅂ닄46듁ꅂ닄50듁ꅂ닄54듁ꅂꙢ걋낲꒧ꯡꅁ냑뭐ꪺꙐ뻇귌Ꙣ꧱낲듁뚡덱녠라ꦿ늤닄55듁ꅂ닄56듁ꅂ닄60듁ꅂ닄66듁ꅂ닄67듁ꅂ닄ꑆ륃삸뙩ꛦꪺ놡ꅁꕈ교꣬돌ꯡ둘듁냑뭐ꡍ떦ꪺꑈ볆71듁ꅂ닄72듁ꅂ닄74듁ꅂ닄81듁ꅂ닄83듁ꅂ닄8428 녍썄곣ꡳ뻇ꗍ뷗ꓥ뚰닄ꑀ듁/ꗁ냪ꑅꑑꑇ꙾꒻ꓫ
ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵듁ꞡ뿅엧ꅇ맪엧롧샙뻇 듁ꅂ닄85듁ꅂ닄86듁ꅂ닄90듁꒧럭듁ꖫ돵믹껦낪꧳뉺ꫭ꒻ꅂꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺꛛ곛쏶 뷗ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦ꅃ LagAC PAC Q닎군뙱 P귈 룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ군뫢 1 ꞡㄴ?2 뿅 3 믹 ㄲ?껦4 5 ? 6 7 㠰 8 9 㘰 10 11 㐰 12 ㈰ 13 ㈹㐰㔱㘲㜳㠴㤵 듁볆14 맏꒻ꅂꞡ뿅믹껦쇍뛕맏 15 ꡍ14016 떦 ꑈ12017 볆100 18 8019 6020 40 룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ꛴군 20 ꥷ걏ꝟꚳMAꪺ꽓꧊ꅝMoving-Average Processesꅞ0 29394959697989ꅟ ꅟ ꅟ ꅟ ꅟ ꅟ ꅟ 듁볆ꥍ뎡꓀ꛛ곛쏶ꅝPartial Autocorrelations, PACꅞ 걐 걐 걐 걐 걐 걐 걐 귈ꅁ샋ꥷ걏ꝟꚳARꪺ꽓꧊ꅝAutoregressive 듁 듁 듁 듁 듁 듁 듁 뗹3ꑔ ꑀ ꒻ ꕼ ꑇ ꓩ ꒭ ProcessesꅞꅝEnders, 1995ꅞꅃ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ꣤샋ꥷꅠ ꅠ ꅠ ꅠ ꅠ ꅠ ꅠ 뗹4닎군뙱ꅝQꅞꞡꡓꚳ엣뗛ꪺ엜ꅁꝙꡓꚳꢺ둘듁맏ꑃꅂꙕ듁냑뭐ꗍ늣ꡍ떦ꑈ볆쇍뛕맏 ꚳꧺ엣ꪺꛛ곛쏶ꅁ엣ꗜ왛맮ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦꒧뚡ꕇꡓꚳꧺ엣ꪺARMAꚡꪺDGP꙳Ꙣꅃ뛈뫞ꗑꞡ ꫭ꒭ꅂ둉뮨뇆ꙗꭥ7ꙗꥍ귋볆5ꙗ꒧ꝑ볭ꑗ꾸ꚸ뿅믹껦때ꩫꪽ놵곝ꕘ꣤DGPꅁ결ꑆ굮뙩ꑀꡂ뵔볆 뭻ꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺ껉뚡Ꟈꙃ걏ꝟ꽵때ꛛ곛쏶ꅁ꧒ꕈ륂ꙗ ꚸ ꝑ 볭ꅝ꒸ꅞ ꑗ 꾸 ꚸ 볆ꗎ끪쉫볒ꮬ꣓ꕛꕈ엧쏒ꅃ귌ꝑꗎ륃삸꒤라꒽ꝇꭥ닄1ꙗ 91 ꑀ듁ꪺꖫ돵믹껦꣑ꗍ늣Ꝁꗍ늣ꡍ떦ꪺ냑ꛒꪺ꽓닄2ꙗ 22 ꧊ꅁ뿯뻜ꭥꑀ듁ꪺꖫ돵믹껦ꝀAR볒ꮬꪺ꛴군ꅁ꣓닄3ꙗ 81 샋엧ꡃꑀ듁ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦꒧뚡걏ꝟ꽵ꪺ때DGP꙳닄4ꙗ 42 Ꙣꅃ 닄5ꙗ 45 ꫭꑃ결ꕈꞡ뿅믹P결삳엜볆ꅁꭥ듁믹껦결ꛛt닄6ꙗ 15 엜볆ꪺ볒ꮬ꣧볆꛴군떲ꩇꅃꙝ륃삸라꒽ꝇꭥ듁ꖫ돵닄7ꙗ 94 ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦ꅁ꧒ꕈ궺ꗽꅁꕈ뢨ꯡꑀ듁ꅝPꅞ결ꛛt-1귋볆닄1ꙗ 55 엜볆꛴군떲ꩇ꙰Model 1ꅁꙁ끷맯득깴Ꝁꛛ곛쏶귋볆닄2ꙗ 59 ꥍ늧뷨엜늧ꪺ샋ꥷꅁ땯뉻득깴ꡓꚳ엣뗛ꪺꛛ곛귋볆닄3ꙗ 53 2쏶ꅁ놵뗛ꕴ샋엧득귈ꪺ늧뷨엜늧ꅁ꣤꒤Q꧒맯삳8귋볆닄4ꙗ 54 귋볆닄5ꙗ 55 뗹ꅇ닄8ꙗꛜ닄73ꙗ꒧ꝑ볭결0꒸ꅁ닄74ꙗ꒧ꯡꪺꝑ 볭결굴귈뗹 3 ACꅇꅁꫭꗜꙢ껉뚡Ꟈꙃ꒤ꅁPꥍ걙꽓ꥷTt(P−P)(P−P)룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ뻣뉺 ∑tt−kt=k+1r=kT2볒ꮬ꛴군 (P−P)∑tt=1뗹2궺ꗽ녎맪엧꒤꧒ꚨ꒧65듁ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺ뢨ꯡ듁ꅝPꅞ꒧뚡꙳Ꙣꪺ곛쏶땻ꯗꅝꙐ껉ꑝ엣ꗜ꣤뚡ꪺ곛꒬t-k뿠꧊ꅞꅆPACꅇ ꅁꫭꗜꟇꙃPꛜPTtt-k껉뚡Ꟈꙃ룪껆뙩ꛦꛛ곛쏶꓀꩒ꅝꢣꫭ6ꅞꅁꕈ산(P−P)(P−P−)/(T−k)tk∑tt−kt=k+1r=ꝕꝐ쉟ꞡ뿅믹껦ꥍ꣤뢨ꯡ듁꒧뚡ꪺDGPꅃ kT2(P−P)/T∑t뻚ꛛ곛쏶ꅝAut=1tocorrelations, ACꅞ귈ꅁ샋 ꒧뚡ꅁPꥍꙕ뢨ꯡ듁ꪺ덳쓲곛쏶꧊ꅃ꣢ꪺ깴ꝏꙢPAC녎ꙕ뢨tꯡ듁뽗ꗟꕘ꣓꛴군ꅁ뇆낣꣤ꕌ뱶암ꅃMAꅇ득깴ꪺ뢨ꯡ듁라뱶 암럭듁ꖫ돵믹껦ꅃARꅇꖫ돵믹껦ꪺ뢨ꯡ듁라뱶암럭듁ꖫ돵믹껦ꅃ 뗹뗹42 ꙝꖻ곣ꡳ걏덺륌군뙱ꓨꚡ꛴군ꞡ뿅믹껦ꥍ꣤뢨ꯡ듁ꪺ2ꅁ뗪때낲덝결HꅇQ=0ꅁ닖뽮꣬k듁꒧ꭥk0LBrjQT(T+2)LB=∑DGPꅁ꧒ꕈꗽ륷꽤ꭥ2듁Ꝁ결뢨ꯡ듁ꅃ꒧ꯡ꛴군ꪺ볋ꖻꞡ결65t−jj=1듁ꅃ ꪺ룪껆ꡓꚳꛛ곛쏶ꪺ샋ꥷ닎군뙱ꅃ 29 녍썄곣ꡳ뻇ꗍ뷗ꓥ뚰닄ꑀ듁/ꗁ냪ꑅꑑꑇ꙾꒻ꓫ
Ꝥ꣎뽯 ꫭꑃꅂARꅝ1ꅞꅂARꅝ2ꅞꅂAR Lag 2볒ꮬ꒧꛴군떲ꩇ Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 볒ꮬP=α+αP+εP=α+αP+αP+εP=α+αP+εt01t-1t t01t-12t-2t t02t-2t ꭙ볆 t α 0 () () () α - 1() () α 2() () 2 Sum squared resid SBC -statistic () () () 4 () () () 8 () () () 12 () () () 4 () () () 8 () () () 12 () () () Kurtosis () () () 뗹1ꅇ볋ꖻ왛맮볆65듁 뗹2ꅇ걁뢹꒺ꕎꫭP귈 2뗹3ꅇQꥍQꪺꑕ볐귈결뢨ꯡ듁 뗹4ꅇPꕎꫭ럭듁믹껦ꅁP결ꭥ듁믹껦ꅁP결ꭥꑇ듁믹껦ꅁα결녠볆뚵ꅁαꅂαꭨ걏ꯝ꛴군꒧끪쉫ꭙ볆ꅁε결끪쉫tt-1t-2012t뭾깴뚵 룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ꛴군 2ꪺP귈쇶땍꒴ꑪ꧳엣뗛ꓴ럇ꅁ꣤Q귈ꚳ엣뗛귓끪쉫ꚡꛓꢥ꒴걏꒣엣뗛ꪺꅁꙝꚹꝐꥷ삳때늧뷨엜ꪺ뱗ꕛꅁ꧒ꕈ결ꑆ샋ꥷꙢꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺ뢨ꯡ닄ꑋ듁걏늧꙳Ꙣꅁ꧒ꕈꙢ꛴군ꚡꪺ득깴닅Ꙙ돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫ뗹5뗹6ꝟꚳ늧뷨엜늧꙳Ꙣꅁꕴ뙩ꛦARCH LM 샋ꥷꅁꅝOrdinary Least Squares Estimator, OLSꅞ꒧ꭥ뒣땯뉻Ꙣ뢨ꯡ닄ꑋ듁ꪺ득깴쇶ꑰ꧳엣뗛ꓴ럇ꅁ둎뻣낲덝ꝙ꣣ꚳꗕ뺸궵ꅝWhite noiseꅞ꒧ꑕꅁ꣤Pꭙt-1 뗹5뗹6222녎AR볒ꮬꪺ득깴ꕴꕈꑀ뮲ꝕ끪쉫ꚡꅝe=β+β e+β 돌ꑰꖭꓨ꛴군ꚡ득깴ꪺ낲덝ꅇE(e)=0ꅂvar(e)=ꍭꅂt01t-12tt222e+…+βe+vꅞꝀF샋ꥷꅁ샋엧득깴ꪺ뢨ꯡ듁맯득깴ꪺ뱶암ꅃ cov(e,e)=0ꅂe~N(0,ꍭ)ꅃ t-2qt-qtijt30 녍썄곣ꡳ뻇ꗍ뷗ꓥ뚰닄ꑀ듁/ꗁ냪ꑅꑑꑇ꙾꒻ꓫ
ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵듁ꞡ뿅엧ꅇ맪엧롧샙뻇 2볆α꒣엣뗛ꅁꫭꗜꭥ듁믹껦꒣라엣뗛ꪺ뱶암럭듁ꅝModel 4ꅞꅁ꣤Q귈ꑰ꧳엣뗛ꓴ럇ꅁꫭꗜꕩ꿠1믹껦ꅁ냑뭐ꛒ뙱ꭥꑀ듁ꪺꞡ뿅믹껦Ꝁꗍ늣ꡍ떦ꪺꚳ늧뷨엜늧꙳Ꙣꅁꙝꖻ곣ꡳ꧒뇄ꗎꪺ꛴군ꓨꩫ결놡ꣃ꒣엣뗛ꅃꚹꕾꅁ뉱듺냑뭐걏ꝟꑝ라녎ꭥꑇOLSꅁ꧒ꕈ럭득깴ꚳ늧뷨엜늧꙳Ꙣꅁꝙ꒣닅ꙘOLS듁ꪺꖫ돵믹껦꿇ꑊ냑ꅁꙁꕈPꥍ꣤뢨ꯡꑇ듁ꅝPꅂꪺ낲덝ꅁꝑꗎOLS꛴군ꕘ꣓ꪺ떲ꩇ둎꒣빁Ꙙꗎ꣓tt-1Pꅞ결꛴군볒ꮬ꙰Model 2ꅁ땯뉻Pꭙ볆αꅂPꝐ쉟ꅁ꙰굮귗ꖿ덯뫘놡ꅁꕩ꿠ꖲ뚷ꙁꓞꗎ꣤ꕌ꛴t-2t-11t-2ꭙ볆αꗧ꒣엣뗛ꅁ냑뭐ꛒ뙱ꭥꑇ듁ꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺ군ꓨꩫꅁꖻ곣ꡳ볈꒣끷맯ꚹ뫘놡ꩰꗎ꣤ꕌ꛴군ꓨ2놡ꩰꗧ꒣ꧺ엣ꅃ걏ꅁꙢ끪쉫꛴군ꚡ꒤ꪺ꣢냑볆꒧ꩫꅁꛓ뇄ꗎ엜ꟳ꣤ꕌ엜볆ꙁꕛꕈ꛴군ꅃ굙뛈둎녠볆뚡ꚳꕩ꿠라꒬곛뱶암ꅁꕴꕾꅁ륃삸냑뭐ꑝꚳꕩ꿠뚵ꥍ꣤뗪샀엜볆Ꝁ꛴군ꅝModel 5ꅞꅁ녠볆뚵ꪺ뗪샀걏Ꙣ걙ꥷꪺ껉뚡ꑗ뫴엜ꟳꡍ떦ꅁꦿ늤ꑆꭥꑀ듁ꪺ엜볆ꭙ볆δ꒴싂꒣엣뗛ꅁꙝꚹꅁ귌돌ꯡ뿯뻜P=α0t0 ꖫ돵ꞡ뿅믹ꅁ꧒ꕈꙢ꒣떴셰Ꙙ낲덝 Hꅇα=α= + εꝀ결꛴군ꪺ볒ꮬꅝModel 6ꅞꅃ 01 2 t0꒧ꑕꅁ귌룕뗛돦뽗샋엧Pꥍ꣤뢨ꯡ닄ꑇ듁ꅝPꅞ롧ꗑ뗪샀엜볆ꪺ꛴군ꅁꕩꕈ쏒맪귌돌ꫬ싇ꗑtt-2ꪺ쏶ꭙ꙰Model 3ꅁꛓ꣤샋ꥷ떲ꩇ꒴싂걏꒣엣뗛ꅁ왛맮ꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺꛛ곛쏶ꅁꝐ쉟ꞡ뿅믹껦ꥍ꣤뢨ꯡꙝꚹꫬꡂ샋ꥷ쏒맪ꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺ뢨ꯡ듁ꖼ맯럭듁믹듁꒧뚡때DGP꙳Ꙣꅁꞡ뿅믹껦삳꒣꣼꣤뢨ꯡ듁ꪺ껦ꚳ엣뗛꒧뱶암ꅃ 뱶암걏Ꙙ빁ꪺꅃ ꗑ꧳귌꛴군럭듁믹껦ꥍ꣤뢨ꯡ듁꒧AR맪엧ꞡ뿅귈ꥍ뉺뷗ꞡ뿅귈샋ꥷ ꅝ1ꅞꅂARꅝ2ꅞꅂAR Lag 2ꪺ떲ꩇꅁ뭐귌왛맮ꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺꛛ곛쏶녯꣬ꞡ뿅믹껦꒧뚡때DGP꙳Ꙣ돌ꯡ귌ꝑꗎ닎군샋ꥷꪺ왛꧀ꅁ꣓샋ꥷ꛴군꧒ꪺ떲ꩇ곛닅Ꙙꅃ꧒ꕈꅁ귌뇀듺냑뭐ꑝ덜ꖼ냑ꛒ녯ꪺꞡ뿅귈걏ꝟꥍ귌꧒륷듁ꪺ뉺뷗귈ꭥ듁믹껦Ꝁꗍ늣ꡍ떦ꅃ곛떥ꅁ꧒ꕈ뙩ꛦ뗪때낲덝ꪺ샋ꥷꅃ낲덝 ꒣륌ꅁ뱶암륃삸냑뭐ꗍ늣ꡍ떦ꪺꙝ꿀ꅁ뉺뷗Hꅇα= ꅁꝑꗎ볋ꖻ볆결65ꅁ꛴군볐럇뭾00 ꑗꅁ낣ꑆꭥ듁믹껦꒧ꕾꅁꭥ듁믹껦ꪺꑗ몦ꥍꑕ뙞ꑝ결ꅁꕩꕈ뫢ꕘtꪺ샋ꥷ닎군뙱떥꧳ꅁ꣤ꯜꕩ꿠뱶암ꗍ늣맯럭듁ꖫ돵믹껦꒧륷듁ꅃ륃삸냑셻곉귈결ꅁ뢨Ꙣ떴냬ꅁꛓꗀ엩ꖭꞡ볆ꪺꭈ뭐ꕩ꿠ꣃꖼꩠ띎ꭥ듁믹껦ꅁꛓꕵ곝ꭥ듁믹껦걏ꑗ뿠냏뚡결ꇘµꇘꅁ꧒ꕈ떴Hꅇα= 00 몦걏ꑕ뙞꣓Ꝁ륷듺ꅁ뙩ꛓ뱶암ꗍ늣ꡍ떦ꅁ꧒ꕈꪺ뗪때낲덝ꅁꫭꗜ꣢ꣃ꒣곛Ꙑꅁ듁ꖫ귌ꕛꑊ뗪샀엜볆Ꙣ끪쉫ꚡ꒤ꅁꗎ꣓샋ꥷꭥ듁믹껦ꑗ돵믹껦ꪺ왛맮귈ꣃꖼꚬ샄ꛜ뱴냓듁ꖭꞡꚨꖻ돌몦ꥍꑕ뙞ꪺ끪쉫ꭙ볆걏ꝟ곛ꙐꅝHill, 2001ꅞꅃ꿷ꕈꝃ쉉ꪺ뉺뷗믹껦ꅃꛓ꛴군ꕘꪺP귈결ꑀ쁈뻷엜볆tARꅝ1ꅞ볒ꮬ결꣒ꅁ뮡ꧺ꙰ꑕꅇꅝP=α+εꅞꅁꞡ뿅믹껦ꥍ꣤뢨ꯡ듁때ꧺ엣ꪺDGP t 0 t궭꣮ꪺ끪쉫볒ꮬꅇ꙳Ꙣꅁ엣ꗜꡓꚳ엣뗛ꪺꛛ엜볆ꅝꕝ걁ꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺ뢨 P=α+αP+ε ꯡ듁ꅂꭥ듁ꞡ뿅믹껦ꪺꑗ몦ꥍꑕ뙞ꅞꕩꕈ뱶암삳엜t01t-1tꖼ꣼궭ꪺ끪쉫볒ꮬꅇ 볆Pꅃ꙰ꩇꚳ엣뗛ꪺꛛ엜볆ꕩꕈ뱶암삳엜볆ꅁꝙꕩtP=α+δD+αP+δ(DP)+ε t00t-11t-11t-1t-1t꿠ꚳ뻇닟껄ꩇ꙳Ꙣꅁꑝ둎걏륃삸냑뭐ꕩ꿠라뻚1ifP≥ATC꧒띪뚰꣬ꪺ룪껆꣓낵ꗍ늣ꡍ떦ꪺꛒ뙱ꅁ빁ꯗꪺ귗ꖿt−1 D=t−10ifP〈ATCꗍ늣굮꿀ꪺ꣏ꗎꅃ꒣륌ꅁꖻ맪엧꛴군ꕘꪺ떲ꩇ결믹t−1뗹7껦엜냊걏ꞡ볆ꪺ쁈뻷엜볆ꅁꑗ굺ꪺ뻇닟럭D = 1ꅁꫭꗜ끪쉫뵵ꪺ멉뙚뚵ꥍ뇗뉶t-1껄ꩇꣃ꒣엣뗛ꪺ꙳Ꙣꅁ꧒ꕈ귌뇀듺냑뭐륃삸ꪺ뻇엜ꅁꭥ듁ꖫ돵믹껦ꑗ몦맯럭듁ꖫ돵믹껦ꚳ뱶암ꅁꗍꗍꙢ낵ꗍ늣ꡍ떦껉ꅁꣃꖼ냑ꛒꭥ듁ꖫ돵믹껦걏ꭥ늣ꪺꗍ늣ꡍ떦ꑝ라꣼꣬엜ꅃ덺륌끪쉫ꭙ볆뗪때ꑇ듁ꖫ돵믹껦ꅁꕈꭥ듁믹껦ꪺ몦뙞ꅁꑝꚳꕩ꿠걏낲덝Hꅇδ=δ=0꒧닎군샋ꥷꅁꭋꕩ곝ꕘꭥ듁믹껦001쇙ꚳ꣤ꕌ뱶암ꗍ늣ꡍ떦ꪺ엜볆걏귌ꥼꖼꛒ뱻꣬ꪺꑗ몦ꥍꑕ뙞걏ꝟ맯ꗍ늣ꪺꗍ늣ꡍ떦ꚳ엣뗛ꪺꪺꅁ꣒꙰ꅁꙝꖻ곣ꡳ걏낲덝륃삸냑뭐라ꕈꝑ볭돌뱶암ꅃ ꑪ결ꗍ늣ꗘ볐ꅁꑝ덜맪믚ꑗ륃삸ꪺ냑뭐ꣃꖼꕈꫭꑋ결ARꅝ1ꅞ볒ꮬꕛꑊ뗪샀엜볆꒧꛴군떲ꚹ결ꗍ늣ꗘ볐ꅁ뻉교뉺뷗떲ꩇ뭐곣ꡳ떲ꩇ꒣닅Ꙙꅃ ꩇꅃ궺ꗽꅁ귌ꕛꑊ녠볆뚵αꥍꭥ듁믹껦Pꪺ뗪0t-1샀엜볆DꥍDPꅝꫭꗜꭥ듁믹껦ꪺ몦뙞ꥍꭥ듁t-1t-1t-1롶ꅂ떲뷗 믹껦꣢꒬곛뱶암ꅞꅁꝙ엜끪쉫뵵ꪺ멉뙚뚵ꥍ뇗뉶ꅁ꙰Model 1ꅁꙢ득깴닅ꙘOLSꪺ낲덝ꑕꅁ꛴군 맪엧롧샙뻇뉻꒵ꑷ덑뱳꩸ꪺ삳ꗎꅁ꣤쁵쉉Ꙣ꧳덺륌놱꣮뱶암롧샙뻇뉺뷗ꪺ굮꿀ꅁꕩ룑ꡍ뉻맪ꗍDꭙ볆δꅂPꭙ볆αꅂꥍDPꭙ볆δ꒧떲ꩇꣃt-10t-11t-1t-11겡꒤ꥍ롧샙뉺뷗꒣곛닅Ꙙꪺꙡꓨꅁꚳꝑ꧳꓀꩒ꥍ셁꒣엣뗛ꅆ놵뗛뛈엜뇗뉶ꅁꕨ놼αꪺ뗪샀엜볆D0t-1룑ꑈ귌Ꙣꡍ떦껉ꪺꛦ결ꅁ덯ꑝ걏ꖻ곣ꡳꝑꗎ맪엧ꪺꅝModel 2ꅞꅁꙁꕛꕈ꛴군ꅁ땯뉻Pꭙ볆αꅂDPt-11t-1t-1ꓨꚡ꣓곣ꡳꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꪺꗘꪺꅃ ꭙ볆δꑝ꒣엣뗛ꅁꫭꗜꭥ듁믹껦ꥍꭥ듁믹껦ꪺ몦뙞1Ꙣꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵꒤ꅁ뙒뷦싹ꓨꑈ볆늳ꙨꙐ껉꿠ꕩ꿠꒣라뱶암럭듁믹껦ꅆꙝꚹModel 1결뇗뉶꒣엜ꅁꑝ둎걏ꕵ엜멉뙚뚵ꅁ껸ꕨPꪺ뗪샀엜볆t-1 DPꅁ꙰Model 3꧒ꗜꅁ꛴군떲ꩇαꪺ뗪샀엜볆t-1t-10뗹7ꙝ륷꽤ꭥ2듁Ꝁ결뢨ꯡ듁ꅁ꧒ꕈ볒ꮬ꛴군ꪺ볋ꖻ볆결65듁ꅁDꭙ볆δꥍPꭙ볆α꒴꒣엣뗛ꅆ꒧ꯡ링룕Ꙣ꛴t-10t-11꣤ꖭꞡ믹결ꅁ볐럇뭾결ꅁꛓ륃삸꧒뙩ꛦꪺ67듁꒧군ꚡꅁ꒤ꕈ꒣ꕝꝴ녠볆뚵ꪺꓨꚡ꛴군끪쉫볒ꮬꖭꞡ믹결ꅁ볐럇뭾결ꅁ꣢꒧뚡ꪺ깴늧꒣ꑪꅃ 31 녍썄곣ꡳ뻇ꗍ뷗ꓥ뚰닄ꑀ듁/ꗁ냪ꑅꑑꑇ꙾꒻ꓫ
Ꝥ꣎뽯 ꫭꑋꅂꕛꑊ뗪샀엜볆꒧ARꅝ1ꅞ볒ꮬ꒧꛴군떲ꩇ Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 볒ꮬP=α+δD+αP+δ(DP)+εP=α+αP+δ(DP)+εP=α+δD+αPεP=αP+δ(DP)+εP=α+δDεP=αεt00t-11t-11t-1t-1t t01t-11t-1t-1tt00t-11t-1+t t1t-11t-1t-1t t00t-1+tt0+t ꭙ볆 Pt α - () () () () () δ - 0 () () () α - 1- () () () () δ - 1- () () () 2 R squared AIC - - () () () () Q(4) () () () () () () Q(8) () () () () () () Q(12) () () () () () () 2Q(4) () () () () () () 2Q(8) () () () () () () 2Q(12) () () () () () () Skewness () () () () () () 뗹1ꅇ볋ꖻ왛맮볆65듁 뗹2ꅇ걁뢹꒺ꕎꫭP귈 2뗹3ꅇQꥍQꪺꑕ볐귈결뢨ꯡ듁 뗹4ꅇPꕎꫭ럭듁믹껦ꅁP결ꭥ듁믹껦ꅁD결ꭥ듁믹껦ꪺ뗪샀엜볆ꅁα결녠볆뚵ꅁα걏ꯝ꛴군꒧끪쉫ꭙ볆ꅁδꅂδ걏ꯝ꛴군꒧뗪샀엜볆ꭙ볆ꅁε결끪쉫뭾깴뚵 tt-1t-10101t룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ꛴군?32 녍썄곣ꡳ뻇ꗍ뷗ꓥ뚰닄ꑀ듁/ꗁ냪ꑅꑑꑇ꙾꒻ꓫ
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