2004쓪뗚5웚훐맺잱퓚닺돶폫닺돶좱뿚뗄맀쯣맹쟬췺ꆡ볖뾡톩(훐맺죋쏱듳톧훐맺닆헾뷰죚헾닟퇐뺿훐탄ꆡ100872)ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:놾컄퓚럖컶뇈뷏쇋잱퓚닺돶뗄죽훖맀쯣랽램뗄믹뒡짏,맀쯣돶컒맺1978ꆪ2002쓪볤뗄잱퓚닺돶ꆢ닺돶좱뿚뫍잱퓚퓶뎤싊ꆣ뷡맻뇭쏷:(1)1978ꆪ2002쓪볤컒맺뗄닺돶좱뿚돶쿖쇋늨뚯쮮욽헽뢺붻쳦뗄맅뗤훜웚쟩탎;(2)1995쓪틔잰,닺돶좱뿚늨뚯뇈뷏뻧쇒뛸쟒욵랱,1996쓪쳘뇰쫇1999쓪틔뫳,닺돶좱뿚뇤뮯뷏캪욽뮺;(3)듓1999쓪뾪쪼,컒맺닺돶좱뿚삩듳뗄쫆춷쏷쿔쟷뮺,떫퓚2002쓪돶쿖쇋튻킩랴벣쿳,헢뇭쏷1998쓪뾪쪼쪵쪩뗄믽벫닆헾헾닟퓚뛴훆뺭볃쿂뮬ꆢ훎샭뺭볃쮥췋랽쏦웰떽쇋훘튪ퟷ폃;(4)룹뻝틔쿻돽쟷쫆램뫍짺닺몯쫽램맀쯣뗄잱퓚닺돶,컒쏇뿉틔췆뛏1978ꆪ2002쓪볤뗄욽뻹잱퓚닺돶퓶뎤싊ꆣ맘볼듊:잱퓚닺돶ꆡ닺돶좱뿚ꆡ쿻돽쟷쫆램ꆡ퓶뎤싊췆쯣램ꆡ짺닺몯쫽램튻ꆢ틽ꆡ퇔잱퓚닺돶뫍닺돶좱뿚쫇뫪맛뺭볃톧뗄훘튪룅쓮,튲쫇럖컶뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐첬쫆뗄훘튪릤뻟,폈웤쫇헾뢮훆뚨뫪맛뺭볃헾닟뗄훘튪틀뻝ꆣ쫗쿈,퓚훐웚,맀쯣잱퓚닺돶뫍닺돶좱뿚,폐훺폚뻶닟헟좷죏뿉돖탸쪵볊뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뿕볤;퓚뛌웚,맀쯣닺돶좱뿚뿉틔움맀춨믵엲헍톹솦ꆣ웤듎,맀쯣잱퓚닺돶뫍닺돶좱뿚쫇훆뚨뫍움볛뫪맛뺭볃헾닟뗄믹뒡ꆣ뻟쳥살쮵,뛔쿖쪵닺돶쮮욽폫잱퓚닺돶쮮욽뗄뇈뷏,뿉틔좷뚨뺭볃헾닟쫇틔퓶볓ퟜ탨쟳캪훷뮹쫇틔뗷헻뺭볃뷡릹캪훷ꆣ늻맽,쒿잰톧쫵뷧뛔폚잱퓚닺돶뗄뷧뚨뮹늻뺡튻훂,폐뗄내뾭뛷쮹샭싛살뚨틥,폐뗄내탂맅뗤샭싛살뷧뚨ꆣꋙ컒쏇헢샯닉폃뗄쫇쏀맺뺭볃톧볒샻캬(Levy,1962)ퟮ퓧쳡돶헢튻룅쓮쪱쯹룸돶뗄뚨틥,벴잱퓚닺돶쫇횸퓚뫏샭컈뚨뗄볛룱쮮욽쿂,쪹폃ퟮ병뿉샻폃뗄벼쫵ꆢퟮ뗍돉놾뗄춶죫ퟩ뫏늢쟒놾뫍샍뚯솦뗄샻폃싊듯떽돤럖뻍튵튪쟳쯹쓜짺닺돶살뗄컯욷뫍럾컱ꆣ닺돶좱뿚쫇횸쿖쪵닺돶폫잱퓚닺돶뗄닮횵햼쿖쪵닺돶믲잱퓚닺돶뗄뇈싊,쯼닢뛈뗄쫇뺭볃훜웚탔늨뚯뛔닺돶뗄펰쿬,랴펳쇋쿖폐뺭볃풴뗄샻폃돌뛈ꆣ퓚컒맺,뷼쓪살폐킩톧헟틑뾪쪼퇐뺿잱퓚닺돶컊쳢,떫믹놾짏틔맀쯣잱퓚(닺돶)퓶뎤싊캪훷ꋚ,놾컄뗄퇐뺿훘뗣퓲쫇맀쯣닺돶좱뿚ꆣ컒쏇쫗쿈럖컶뇈뷏맀쯣잱퓚닺돶뗄죽훖뎣폃랽램,좻뫳뛔컒맺뗄잱퓚닺돶뫍닺돶좱뿚뷸탐맀쯣,늢뛔룷훖맀쯣뷡맻뷸탐뇈뷏ꆣ뛾ꆢ잱퓚닺돶맀쯣랽램뗄뇈뷏잱퓚닺돶뗄맀쯣랽램맩뷡캪솽듳샠:튻샠쫇뷨훺볆솿럖컶릤뻟뛔쿖쪵닺돶뗄쪱볤탲쇐탔훊횱뷓뷸탐뒦샭듓뛸룸돶잱퓚닺돶뗄맀쯣횵,죧쿻돽쟷쫆램ꆢ퓶뎤싊췆쯣램;쇭튻샠쫇짺닺몯쫽램ꆣ잰튻샠랽램맀쯣맽돌볲뇣,뾼싇뗄틲쯘뷏짙,떫훷튪좱뗣쫇쎻폐쳥쿖잱퓚닺돶뗄릩룸쏦쳘헷;뛸짺닺ꋙ폐맘잱퓚닺돶룅쓮뷧뚨쮼슷뗄럖컶,쟫닎퓄Scacciavillani폫Swagel(1999)ꆣꋚ샽죧,췵뒺헽(2003)퓸샻폃벸훖랽램럖뇰맀쯣쇋컒맺ꆰ뻅컥ꆱ쪱웚뗄잱퓚퓶뎤싊ꆣ31' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
맹쟬췺ꆢ볖뾡톩:훐맺잱퓚닺돶폫닺돶좱뿚뗄맀쯣몯쫽램퓲뷏캪좫쏦뗘뾼싇쇋짺닺튪쯘샻폃싊뫍벼쫵뷸늽뗄펰쿬,떫맀쯣맽돌뷏캪뢴퓓ꆣ(튻)쿻돽쟷쫆램(DT)쿻돽쟷쫆램(detrendingmethod,DT)뗄뻟쳥ퟶ램쫇,샻폃욽뮬뮯릤뻟붫쿖쪵닺돶럖뷢캪쟷쫆돉럖폫훜웚돉럖,웤훐뗄쟷쫆돉럖벴잱퓚닺돶,훜웚돉럖벴닺돶좱뿚ꆣ쒿잰훷튪폐솽훖랽램살쏨쫶쿖쪵닺돶쯦쪱볤뇤뮯뗄쟷쫆ꆣ뗚튻훖쫇좷뚨탔쪱볤쟷쫆ꆣ맋쏻쮼틥,헢훖쏨쫶랽램쫇죏캪쿖쪵닺돶쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄뇤뮯뇭쿖돶튻훖쪮럖좷뚨뗄쟷쫆,벴Ln(Y)t=a+ꛄt+ꛕ(L)ꛅ(t1)웤훐Ln(Y)t캪쿖쪵닺돶뗄ퟔ좻뛔쫽,aꆢꛄ캪쾵쫽,t캪쪱볤,ꛕ(L)캪훍뫳쯣ퟓL뗄뛠쿮쪽,ꛅt캪죅뚯쿮ꆣ웤훐뗄쟷쫆쿮쫇쪱볤t뗄쿟탔몯쫽,쯹틔돆캪쿟탔쟷쫆ꆣ평폚컒쏇뎣뎣샻폃횸쫽탎쪽살뿌뮭쿖쪵닺돶뗄퓶뎤ꛄ,벴Yt=te,뛸좡ퟔ좻뛔쫽뻍뮯캪쇋쿟탔쟷쫆ꆣ뗚뛾훖쫇떥캻룹맽돌,튲돆I(1)맽돌ꆣ헢훖랽램죏캪쿖쪵닺돶뗄쟷쫆돉럖쫇튻룶쯦믺탐ퟟ맽돌,벴ꚤLn(Y)t=ꛄ+ꛕ(L)ꛅ(t2)웤훐ꚤ캪튻뷗닮럖쯣ퟓ,좡ퟔ좻뛔쫽튲쫇믹폚잰쫶샠쯆뗄샭평ꆣ듳솿뗄샭싛뫍뺭퇩럖컶뇭쏷,쿖쪵닺돶늢늻뻟폐튻룶좷뚨탔쪱볤쟷쫆,쯼뗄쟷쫆돉럖룼뛠뗘뇭쿖캪튻룶쯦믺탐ퟟ맽돌벴떥캻룹맽돌(NelsonandPlosser,1982),헢쪱쯹쪹폃뗄쿻돽쟷쫆램,쒿잰뷏캪쇷탐뗄쫇HP싋늨램(HodrickandPrescott,1990)ꆣ쯼쫇춨맽ퟮ킡뮯(T캪퇹놾웚)TT-136(LnYt-L323nY)t+ꛋ6[(LnYt+1-LnY)t-(L3nYt-L32nYt-1)](3)t=1t=2듓뛸붫쿖쪵닺돶뗄ퟔ좻뛔쫽LnYt럖뷢캪쟷쫆돉럖벴잱퓚닺돶뗄ퟔ좻뛔쫽L3nYt뫍훜웚탔돉럖벴닺돶좱뿚LnYt-L3nYtꆣꋙ퓚샻폃쿻돽쟷쫆램맀쯣잱퓚닺돶쪱,쫗쿈탨튪뛔쿖쪵닺돶뷸탐볬퇩틔에뛏쯼뗄쪱볤쟷쫆쫴폚쓄튻훖탎쪽,좻뫳좷뚨뻟쳥랽램ꆣ맘폚떥캻룹맽돌뗄볬퇩랽램뫜뛠,뎣폃뗄폐ADF(AugmentedDickey2Fuller)볬퇩ꆣ쿻돽쟷쫆램뗄ퟮ듳폅뗣퓚폚웤볲뇣틗폃,웤훐뗄HP싋늨램,룼쫇틲캪붨솢퓚뛔쿖쪵닺돶쟷쫆뷏캪뫏샭뗄쏨쫶믹뒡짏뛸뗃떽맣랺펦폃ꆣ떫HP싋늨램튲듦퓚ퟅ튻킩헹틩,헹틩뗄붹뗣퓚폚죧뫎톡좡ꛋ,늻춬뗄ꛋ횵뻶뚨쇋늻춬뗄훜웚랽쪽뫍욽뮬뛈ꆣ듓춳볆톧뗄맛뗣살뾴ꛋ,뇘탫쫇쯦틢톡좡뗄,틲캪죎뫎튻룶럇욽컈뗄쪱볤탲쇐(뇈죧I(1)맽돌)뚼뿉틔럖뷢캪컞쫽룶럇욽컈쟷쫆돉럖폫욽컈훜웚돉럖뗄ퟩ뫏ꆣ떽쒿잰캪횹,뮹쎻폐튻룶뫜뫃뗄춳볆횸뇪뿉틔폃살에뛏쓄튻훖럖뷢랽쪽룼뫃ꆣ맘폚ꛋ뗄톡좡,튻냣뚼쪹폃믴뗂샯뿋뫍웕샗쮹뿆쳘(HodrickandPrescott,1980)붨틩쪹폃뗄1600,헢쯆뫵틑뺭돉캪튻훖ꆰ탐튵뇪ힼꆱꆣꋚ떫쯻쏇붨틩쪹폃뗄1600헫뛔폚벾뛈쫽뻝,쯹틔퓚쪹폃웤쯻쪱볤샠탍뗄쫽뻝쪱,뮹뇘탫죏헦볓틔뾼싇ꆣ(뛾)퓶뎤싊췆쯣램(GRE)퓶뎤싊췆쯣램(growthrateextrapolationmethod,GRE)뗄믹놾쮼쿫쫇죏캪잱퓚닺돶퓶뎤싊퓚뎤웚믲훁짙튻룶쿠뛔뎤뗄쪱웚쓚쫇뫣뚨뗄ꆣꋛ헢퇹횻튪쓜릻좷뚨헢튻퓶뎤싊,늢쟒룸돶튻룶쓜릻듺뇭뺭3ꋙꆡ틲캪t-Y3tLtnYt-LnY3Yt=Ln1+쯹틔헢샯뗄닺돶Y3µYt-Y좱뿚뷼쯆뇭쪾캪잱퓚닺돶뗄냙럖뇈,떫캪쇋뇣폚뇈뷏룷tY3,t훖맀쯣랽램뗄뷡맻,놾컄훐쯹룸돶뗄닺돶좱뿚맀쯣뇭쪾캪쿖쪵닺돶뗄냙럖뇈ꆣꋚꆡ뾨억췟(Canova,1993)쿪쾸쳖싛쇋평ꛋ뗄늻춬톡좡쯹닺짺뗄룷훖컊쳢ꆣꋛꆡ폫퓶뎤싊췆쯣램뗄쮼쿫튻훂뗄뮹폐늨럥쿠솬램(linked2peaksmethod),쯹늻춬뗄쫇헢훖랽램쫇톡좡솽룶쓜릻듺뇭뺭볃풴뗃떽돤럖샻폃뗄뺭볃늨럥,헢퇹뇣좷뚨쇋잱퓚닺돶뗄퓶뎤슷뺶ꆣ떫헢훖랽램튪쟳톡좡뗄솽룶뺭볃늨럥횮볤뗄쪱볤뿧뛈튪ퟣ릻뎤,뇈죧벸쪮쓪,쯹틔놾컄쎻폐쪹폃늨럥쿠솬램ꆣ32' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2004쓪뗚5웚볃풴뗃떽돤럖샻폃뗄믹쓪,뇣뿉췆쯣돶컞싛쫇맽좥뮹쫇캴살죎튻쪱웚뗄잱퓚닺돶ꆣ퓚뻟쳥좷뚨믹쓪쪱,뎣뎣톡좡쿖쪵뺭볃훐뗄늨럥,틔웤쿖쪵닺돶ퟷ캪떱쓪뗄잱퓚닺돶,늢붫웤쟷쫆퓶뎤싊ퟷ캪헻룶쪱웚쓚뗄잱퓚닺돶퓶뎤싊,헢퇹뻍뗃떽쇋룷쓪뗄잱퓚닺돶:3Yt=AT(1+r)(4)웤훐A캪믹쓪뗄쿖쪵닺돶,r캪믹쓪뗄쟷쫆퓶뎤싊,T캪t쓪폫믹쓪뗄쪱볤볤룴ꆣ퓶뎤싊췆쯣램뗄폅뗣퓚폚웤볲뇣틗폃,쟒뫜뫃뗘쳥쿖돶잱퓚닺돶쫇쿖쪵뺭볃ퟮ듳짺닺쓜솦뗄뛈솿ꆣ헽틲캪죧듋,쯼놻탭뛠뺭볃톧볒닉폃ꆣ떫헢훖랽램튲퓢떽쇋뫜뛠뺭볃톧볒뗄훊틉,엺움뗄붹뗣퓚폚믹쓪뗄톡퓱짏:퓶뎤싊췆쯣램퓚톡퓱믹쓪짏뷶뷶튪쟳웤듺뇭쇋뺭볃풴뗄돤럖샻폃,퓚뻟쳥닙ퟷ훐톡좡뗄쫇뺭볃늨럥,떫퓚튻뛎쿠뛔뎤뗄쪱웚쓚,뺭볃늨럥믡폐탭뛠룶,늻춬뗄죋뿉쓜믡폐늻춬뗄톡퓱,뛸늻춬뗄톡퓱쯹뗃떽뗄잱퓚닺돶맀쯣뷡맻뿏뚨튲믡듳쿠뺶춥,쯹틔헢뻍쏦쇙ퟅ튻룶죧뫎톡퓱믹쓪뗄컊쳢ꆣ퓚뻟쳥맀쯣훐,췹췹탨튪컒쏇뇈뷏늻춬믹쓪톡퓱뗄맀쯣뷡맻,뾴쓄튻훖톡퓱쯹뗃떽뗄맀쯣뷡맻폫쿖쪵뺭볃쟩뿶뇈뷏컇뫏ꆣ(죽)짺닺몯쫽램(PF)짺닺몯쫽램(productionfunctionmethod,PF)뗄믹놾쮼쿫쫇쫗쿈샻폃쿖쪵쫽뻝맀쯣돶ퟜ솿짺닺몯쫽,늢뗃떽좫튪쯘짺닺싊(벴쯹캽뗄쯷싥닐닮),좻뫳샻폃쿻돽쟷쫆램뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊뷸탐럖뷢,듓뛸뗃떽쟷쫆좫튪쯘짺닺싊,퓙맀쯣돶잱퓚뻍튵,붫쟷쫆좫튪쯘짺닺싊뫍잱퓚뻍튵듸죫ퟜ솿짺닺몯쫽뇣뗃떽쇋잱퓚닺돶ꆣ11쒣탍뗄믹놾뿲볜퓚뻟쳥맀쯣쪱,닉폃뗄짺닺몯쫽탎쪽뛠캪뿂늼-뗀룱삭쮹짺닺몯쫽ꛂ:Yt=AKꛁtLt,웤훐Yt캪쿖쪵닺돶,Lt캪샍뚯춶죫,Kt캪놾듦솿,ꛁꆢꛂ럖뇰캪욽뻹놾뗄릱쿗틲ퟓ폫샍뚯솦뗄릱쿗틲ퟓꆣ솽뇟춬쪱좡ퟔ좻뛔쫽폐:Ln(Y)t=Ln(A)+ꛁLn(K)t+ꛂLn(L)(t5)춨뎣컒쏇볙짨ꛁ+ꛂ=1벴맦쒣쫕틦늻뇤,퓲폐믘맩랽돌:Ln(YtΠL)t=Ln(A)+ꛁLn(KtΠL)t+ꛅ(t6)웤훐ꛅt캪닐닮쿮튲벴좫튪쯘짺닺싊,헢쫇튻룶쮫뛔쫽쒣탍,뿉틔평OLS횱뷓볓틔맀쯣,웤훐YꆢL뗄쫽뻝뿉틔평춳볆쓪본횱뷓뗃떽,뛸놾듦솿K뗄쫽뻝탨튪닢쯣ꆣ21놾듦솿뗄닢쯣닢쯣놾듦솿뗄믹놾릫쪽캪Kt=ItΠpi+(1-ꛄ)tKt-1(7)웤훐Kt캪t쓪뗄쪵볊놾듦솿,Kt-1캪t-1쓪뗄쪵볊놾듦솿,pi캪만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽,It캪t쓪뗄쏻틥춶,ꛄt캪t쓪뗄만뚨닺헛뻉싊ꆣ퓚좷뚨쇋놾듦솿뗄돵횵틔벰쪵볊뺻춶뫳,뇣뿉폃(7)쪽룸돶룷쓪뗄쪵볊놾듦솿ꆣ폐쇋쪵볊놾듦솿뫳,춨맽(6)쪽룸돶짺닺몯쫽뫍좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄맀쯣,샻폃쿻돽쟷쫆램뿉뗃쟷쫆좫튪쯘짺닺싊ꆣ31잱퓚뻍튵뗄맀쯣잱퓚뻍튵튲돆돤럖뻍튵,쫇횸떱뺭볃듯떽잱퓚닺돶쮮욽쪱뗄뻍튵쮮욽,볆쯣릫쪽캪3Lt=Lst3Trp)(,t3(1-NAWRUt8)웤훐3Lt캪잱퓚뻍튵,Lst캪듯떽릤ퟷ쓪쇤뗄죋쫽,Trp,t캪쟷쫆닎폫싊,NAWRUt캪럇릤틽훂쪧튵싊ꆣ낣샻쒬쮹뿆럲(Elmeskov,1993)룸돶쇋NAWRUt뗄맀쯣랽램:볙짨릤짏헇뇤뮯싊(W)t폫쿖쪵쪧튵싊Uꚤ2t뫍NAWRUt횮닮돉뇈샽벴Ln(W)t=-a(Ut-NAWRU)t,웤훐ꚤ2캪뛾뷗닮럖쯣ퟓ,a캪쾵쫽ꆣ뷸튻늽볙짨NAWRUt퓚죎틢뗄솽룶솬탸쪱웚쫇뫣뚨뗄,뻍뿉틔룸돶a뗄맀쯣:a=-ꚤ3Ln33' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
맹쟬췺ꆢ볖뾡톩:훐맺잱퓚닺돶폫닺돶좱뿚뗄맀쯣(W)tΠꚤUt,튲뻍룸돶NAWRUt뗄맀쯣:NAWRUt=Ut-[ꚤUtΠꚤ3Ln(W)t]3ꚤ2Ln(W)tꆣ헢퇹평(8)쪽뻍뗃떽쇋잱퓚뻍튵뗄맀쯣,붫잱퓚뻍튵뫍쟷쫆좫튪쯘짺닺싊듺죫(6)쪽,뗃떽잱퓚닺돶ꆣ짺닺몯쫽램뗄ퟮ듳폅뗣퓚폚맀쯣잱퓚닺돶쪱,좫쏦뾼싇쇋짺닺튪쯘샻폃싊뫍벼쫵뷸늽뗄펰쿬,돤럖쳥쿖쇋잱퓚닺돶뗄릩룸쏦쳘헷,쯹틔헢훖랽램튲쫇쒿잰맺볊짏쪹폃ퟮ뛠뗄랽램ꆣ떫웤맀쯣맽돌뷏캪뢴퓓,뛔쫽뻝뗄튪쟳뷏룟ꆣ죽ꆢ훐맺잱퓚닺돶뗄맀쯣컒쏇샻폃짏쫶죽훖랽램뻟쳥맀쯣컒맺1978ꆪ2002쓪뗄잱퓚닺돶폫닺돶좱뿚,쫽뻝훷튪살풴폚ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본(2003)ꆷ,쪹폃뗄춳볆죭볾캪Stata810ꆣ(튻)쿻돽쟷쫆램죧잰쯹쫶,퓚샻폃쿻돽쟷쫆램맀쯣잱퓚닺돶쪱,쫗쿈탨튪에뛏쿖쪵닺돶뗄쟷쫆쫇뫎훖탎쪽ꆣ뛔폚컒맺1978ꆪ2002쓪뗄쿖쪵닺돶(좡ퟔ좻뛔쫽),컒쏇뿉틔샻폃ADF볬퇩퇩횤쯼뗄쟷쫆돉럖캪튻룶떥캻룹맽돌ꆣ뻟쳥볬퇩뷡맻죧쿂:욽컈탔볬퇩ADF쇙뷧횵(99%)쇙뷧횵(95%)DWMacKinnonPZ(t)-3158-4138-316013490103ꆡꆡ뇭훐ADF=-3158,웤뻸뛔횵킡폚룷룶쇙뷧횵,틔벰MacKinnonP횵뇭쏷풭탲쇐캪럇욽컈뗄ꆣ뷸튻늽뷸탐떥캻룹볬퇩(뛔풭탲쇐튻뷗닮럖쿮뷸탐욽컈탔볬퇩),뷡맻죧쿂:떥캻룹볬퇩ADF쇙뷧횵(99%)쇙뷧횵(95%)DWMacKinnonPZ(t)-3145-3175-3101186010108ꆡꆡ뇭훐ADF=-3145,웤뻸뛔횵듳폚95%뗄쇙뷧횵,뇭쏷퓚5%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽뿉틔죏캪풭탲쇐캪I(1)탲쇐ꆣ컒쏇닉폃HP싋늨램맀쯣잱퓚닺돶쪱,틲쪹폃뗄쫇쓪뛈쫽뻝,맊닉폃쇋OECD뗄붨틩,좡ꛋ=25ꆣꋙ헢퇹평릫쪽(3)뇣뗃떽쇋컒맺1978ꆪ2002룷쓪뗄잱퓚닺돶벰닺돶좱뿚,뻟쳥뷡맻볻뇭1ꆣ(뛾)퓶뎤싊췆쯣램컒맺ퟔ1978쓪틔살뺭샺쇋쯄듎뺭볃랱죙쪱웚:뗚튻듎돶쿖퓚1978쓪,뗚뛾듎돶쿖퓚1983ꆪ1985쓪,뗚죽듎돶쿖퓚1987ꆪ1988쓪,뗚쯄듎돶쿖퓚1992ꆪ1995쓪ꆣ컒쏇쫗쿈럖뇰틔헢쯄룶뺭볃늨럥ퟷ캪믹쓪맀쯣쇋닺돶좱뿚,춨맽뛔쯹맀쯣뗄닺돶좱뿚폫쿖쪵뺭볃뗄뇈뷏럖컶,ퟮ훕톡좡1988쓪ퟷ캪믹쓪ꆣ붫1988쓪뗄쿖쪵닺돶ퟷ캪떱쓪뗄잱퓚닺돶,늢샻폃HP싋늨뛔1978ꆪ2002쓪쿖쪵닺돶퓶뎤싊뷸탐럖뷢,듓뛸뗃떽1988쓪뗄쟷쫆퓶뎤싊캪9177%ꆣ붫웤ퟷ캪1978ꆪ2002쓪뗄잱퓚닺돶퓶뎤싊,좻뫳샻폃릫쪽(4)맀쯣돶컒맺1978ꆪ2002쓪룷쓪뗄잱퓚닺돶벰닺돶좱뿚,뻟쳥뷡맻볻뇭1ꆣ(죽)짺닺몯쫽램퓚샻폃짺닺몯쫽램맀쯣컒맺잱퓚닺돶쪱,평폚좱랦쫽뻝,컒쏇쏦쇙ퟅ솽룶훷튪쓑뗣:튻쫇놾듦솿뗄닢쯣,뛾쫇잱퓚뻍튵뗄맀쯣ꆣ11놾듦솿뗄닢쯣컒맺놾듦솿뗄뻟쳥닢쯣훐듦퓚ퟅ솽룶쓑뗣:튻쫇믹쓪놾듦솿뗄좷뚨,뛾쫇쪵볊뺻춶(냼삨만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽뫍놾헛뻉)뗄좷뚨,쒿잰맺쓚샭싛뷧퓚뒦샭헢솽뗣짏듦퓚ퟅ뷏듳뗄럖웧ꆣퟞ훁(Chow,1993)틔1952쓪캪믹쓪,룹뻝춳볆쓪본릫늼뗄1952쓪좫쏱쯹폐훆웳튵뗄만뚨닺뺻횵,내튻뚨뇈샽닢쯣돶좫짧믡뗄놾듦솿,춬쪱샻폃춳볆쓪본릫늼뗄믽샛횸쫽볆쯣돶믽샛틾몬ꋙ쿂컄훐,컒쏇퓚쪹폃HP싋늨쪱,뚼ퟶ쇋샠쯆볬퇩쟒뚼좡ꛋ=25,캪쇋뇜쏢훘뢴뻍늻퓙룸돶뻟쳥뗄볬퇩뷡맻ꆣ34' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2004쓪뗚5웚욽복횸쫽,뛔룷웚믽샛뛮뷸탐욽복듓뛸룸돶룷웚뗄놾듦솿ꆣ췵킡슳뫍랮룙(2000)춬퇹틔1952쓪캪믹쓪,늢룸돶쇋쿠펦뗄놾듦솿,떫늢캴룸돶뻟쳥뗄맀쯣랽램,춬쪱쯻쏇볙짨쇋5%뗄만뚨닺헛뻉싊ꆣ헅뻼뫍헂풪(2003)튲쫇틔1952쓪캪믹쓪,샻폃짏몣쫐뗄쿠맘샺쪷쫽뻝늢룹뻝짏몣쫐GDP햼좫맺GDP뗄뇈훘맀쯣돶좫맺뗄놾듦솿,춬쪱틔1952ꆪ2001쓪뗄짏몣쫐만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽ퟷ캪좫맺만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽탲쇐,뛔쏻틥춶뷸탐욽복ꆣꋙ뇭1잱퓚닺돶벰닺돶좱뿚뗄맀쯣뷡맻쓪럝잱퓚닺돶잱퓚닺돶잱퓚닺돶닺돶좱뿚닺돶좱뿚닺돶좱뿚(PF,틚풪)(DT,틚풪)(GRE,틚풪)(PF,%)(DT,%)(GRE,%)1978ꆡꆡ35231753534171371916721772147-216419793879124(10109)3847151(8185)408310801521133-417119804210193(8155)4192117(8196)4482-01170128-616119814538138(7178)457913(9123)4919189-2156-3149-1111819824951143(911)5023115(9169)5400157-2165-4114-1119619835467132(10142)5534166(10118)592812-2121-3147-1018219846078143(11118)6117129(10153)650713911340171-516219856860115(12186)6764105(10157)714311611873124-211819867697177(12121)7464116(10135)7841104-11151192-310319878521124(1017)8211114(10)8607111-0135313-113619889357125(9181)9001187(9163)944810301964172019899980111(6166)9844186(9136)1037111-115-0113-5148199010602146(6124)1077215(9142)11384136-3185-5152-11151199111404134(7156)11828103(918)12496161-213-611-1211199212550153(10105)13041138(10126)137171531145-2141-7171199314060179(12103)14416108(10154)1505717321710125-4118199415749157(12101)15935156(10154)1652818731282113-1151199517499104(11111)17571168(10127)1814317421752135-0183199619300189(1013)1929619(9182)1991613921122114-110199721131159(9149)21091145(913)2186212211541173-1187199823126118(9144)22948185(8181)2399811601060183-3171199925094179(8151)24879167(8141)26342178-1122-0135-6125200027064151(7185)26908188(8116)28916147-1112-0154-8104200129192122(7186)29066134(8102)31741161-1165-1122-10153200231632127(8136)31384127(7197)34842176-118-110-12113ꆡꆡ힢:(1)닺돶좱뿚쫇쿖쪵닺돶폫잱퓚닺돶뗄닮뛮햼쿖쪵닺돶뗄냙럖뇈;(2)뇭훐잰솽쇐킡삨뫅쓚뗄쫽ퟖ쫇잱퓚닺돶퓶뎤싊,GRE램맀쯣뗄잱퓚닺돶퓶뎤싊뻹캪9177%ꆣ놾컄틔1978쓪캪믹웚,춨맽닩퓄ꆶ훐맺만뚨닺춶춳볆쓪본ꆷ(1950ꆪ1995),컒쏇뗃떽쇋1978쓪쓪뗗뗄좫쏱쯹폐훆릤튵웳튵만뚨닺뺻횵캪222517틚풪,폖평떱쓪뗄좫쏱쯹폐훆릤튵웳튵ꋙ헅뻼뫍헂풪(2003)뷏캪쿪쾸뗘쳖싛쇋컒맺쒿잰맀쯣놾듦솿K뗄룷훖랽램,틔벰맘폚좷뚨믹쓪놾듦솿뫍쪵볊뺻춶쯹듦퓚뗄룷훖헹틩,늢룸돶쇋ퟔ벺뗄닢쯣랽램ꆣ35' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
맹쟬췺ꆢ볖뾡톩:훐맺잱퓚닺돶폫닺돶좱뿚뗄맀쯣닺횵햼헻룶GDP뗄58%,듳훂뿉틔췆쯣돶1978쓪뗄좫맺만뚨닺뺻횵캪3837틚풪ꆣ춳볆쓪본짏맺폐웳튵1978쓪떽1992쓪볤뗄만뚨닺헛뻉싊,듳늿럖퓚5%ퟳ폒,쯹틔컒쏇톡퓱쇋췵킡슳뫍랮룙볙뚨뗄만뚨닺헛뻉싊5%ꆣ뛔폚만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽,컒쏇룹뻝헅뻼뫍헂풪쯹맀쯣뗄좫맺만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽,헛쯣돶틔1978ꆪ2001쓪(1978쓪캪믹웚)뗄만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽,늢폫뗷헻뫳뗄2002쓪뗄좫맺만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽쿠뷡뫏,릹퓬돶췪헻뗄만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽탲쇐ꆣ헢퇹평릫쪽(7),컒쏇뻍뗃떽쇋1978ꆪ2002쓪룷쓪뗄쪵볊놾듦솿,뻟쳥뷡맻볻뇭2ꆣ뇭2쪵볊놾듦솿ꆢ잱퓚뻍튵ꆢ쟷쫆좫튪쯘짺닺싊쓪럝쪵볊GDP뺭볃믮뚯뻍튵죋쫽잱퓚뻍튵쏻틥춶만뚨닺춶놾듦솿쟷쫆좫튪(틚풪)죋쫽(췲)(췲)(췲)(틚풪)볛룱횸쫽(틚풪)쯘짺닺싊19783624114068240152393811641ꆡꆡꆡ38370109731979389915314159241024410371138531911006976449311010714198042031956429034236142692199910191103013451521701046519814425102644165437254434916896110110219445835150102351982482316774567445295460071351230141106372967001401003619835349117246707464364766516914301111000933779411-0101291984616019748433481974932318918321911065946912319-010266198569901889501124987350980125254312111426741089314-01038519867610161515465128252632135312016112338591287719-0104902198784911267530605278354276199379117114278561488915-0105741988944810295463054334559101114753181169E+001695715-01062971989983211835570755329575261714410141190E+001843113-010650119901020910964483639095912018451710119864251978316-0106196199111147173653996479960685105559415211238812142816-010524199212735109661846555462215115808011213375282381318-0103741993144521916703366373637091411307213219432752706415-0101971994162831086787967199651681231704211313683023077019-010021199517993166687376794766593173200191331653017347121501013119961971817369665688506798913722974318354538966180102471997214611927058069600693591422494111318199864354716010322199823139188714076995770708183284061231764174891617010359199924792147719837058672042168298541731709895545181201036801200026763198739927115073365173291717318238276040018010358200128717137744327302574681171372133185059467044190103372002310731037536073740759931184349919131859057749641910103133ꆡꆡ힢:뇭훐뗄쪵볊GDP쫇룹뻝쏻틥GDP폫GDP쯵복횸쫽헛쯣뛸뗃ꆣ21잱퓚뻍튵뗄맀쯣평폚컒맺쒿잰좱랦닎폫싊뗄쫽뻝,쯹틔컒쏇샻폃HP싋늨뛔좫짧믡뺭볃믮뚯죋쫽뷸탐럖뷢뒦샭,뗃떽쟷쫆좫짧믡뺭볃믮뚯죋쫽,틔듋듺쳦릫쪽(8)훐뗄Lst3Trp,tꆣ듋췢,튻랽쏦평폚컒맺쒿잰좱랦쪧튵싊쫽뻝,쇭튻랽쏦컒맺뗄릤퓚뫜뎤튻뛎쪱웚쓚쫇평맺볒뗷뿘뗄,늢쎻폐쯦ퟅ뺭볃뗄늨뚯36' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2004쓪뗚5웚뛸룄뇤,쯹틔컒쏇늢늻쓜샻폃낣샻쒬쮹뿆럲(Elmeskov,1993)뗄랽램살맀쯣NAWRUtꆣퟷ캪뇤춨,컒쏇샻폃HP싋늨뛔샍뚯뻍튵죋쫽폫뺭볃믮뚯죋쫽뗄뇈횵뷸탐럖뷢늢틔웤쟷쫆돉럖살듺쳦NAWRUtꆣ헢퇹샻폃릫쪽(8),컒쏇뻍뗃떽쇋컒맺1978ꆪ2002쓪룷쓪잱퓚뻍튵뗄맀쯣,뻟쳥뷡맻볻뇭2ꆣ31잱퓚닺돶뗄맀쯣폐쇋쪵볊놾듦솿,컒쏇뻍뿉틔춨맽릫쪽(6)룸돶컒맺짺닺몯쫽뫍좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄맀쯣ꆣ퓚맀쯣횮잰,컒쏇쫗쿈샻폃Wald볬퇩랽램살볬퇩맦쒣쫕틦늻뇤벴ꛁ+ꛂ=1뗄볙짨ꆣWald볬퇩쫇샻폃컞풼쫸믘맩랽돌Ln(Y)t=Ln(A)+ꛁLn(K)t+ꛂLn(L)t+ꛅt뗄OLS믘맩뷡맻,뛔Ln(K))t뫍Ln(Lt뗄쾵쫽뷸탐쿟탔풼쫸볬퇩,뻟쳥뷡맻죧쿂:풭볙짨F춳볆솿P횵P>0105뇭쏷퓚5%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽짏,컒쏇뿉틔뷓쫜풭볙짨벴ꛁ죏캪컒맺뺭볃퓚1978ꆪ2002쓪볤뺭샺쇋맦쒣쫕틦늻뇤ꆣ헢퇹,+ꛂ=1314401077컒쏇춨맽풼쫸믘맩랽돌(6)뗄OLS믘맩,뗃떽죧쿂뷡맻:Ln(YtΠL)(t=11936+0169LnKtΠL)(t10)(42149,01000)AdjR2squared=019869ꆡDW=0124ꆡchi2(1)=2128ꆡP=01131ꆡꆡ평틔짏볬퇩뷡맻,컒쏇뿉틔뾴돶믘맩뷡맻쿔훸,늢뷏뫃뗘춨맽ퟔ쿠맘뫍틬랽닮볬퇩,폚쫇뿉틔뗃떽좫튪쯘짺닺싊,늢샻폃HP싋늨램뗃떽쇋쟷쫆좫튪쯘짺닺싊,뻟쳥뷡맻볻뇭2ꆣꆡꆡ컒쏇냑잱퓚뻍튵폫쟷쫆좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄맀쯣횵듺죫릫쪽(10),뗃떽컒맺1978ꆪ2002쓪뗄잱퓚닺돶,튲뻍뗃떽쿠펦뗄닺돶좱뿚,뻟쳥뷡맻볻뇭1ꆣ쯄ꆢ잱퓚닺돶폫닺돶좱뿚럖컶본폚늻춬뗄맀쯣랽램뚼폐룷ퟔ뗄폅좱뗣,컒쏇폐뇘튪뛔헢킩랽램뗄폐킧탔뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ춬쪱,춨맽럖컶룷훖랽램맀쯣돶살뗄잱퓚닺돶벰닺돶좱뿚,컒쏇뛔1978ꆪ2002쓪볤컒맺뫪맛뺭볃뗄퓋탐ힴ뿶ퟷ볲튪럖컶ꆣ(튻)죽훖랽램맀쯣뷡맻뗄뇈뷏럖컶캪쇋뇈뷏짏쫶죽훖맀쯣랽램뗄폐킧탔,컒쏇틔맀쯣뷡맻쫇럱쓜뷏뫃뗘랴펳돶쿖쪵뺭볃뗄퓋탐ힴ뿶ퟷ캪움볛뇪ힼꆣ틀뻝죽훖랽램쯹맀쯣뗄잱퓚닺돶뫍닺돶좱뿚,컒쏇믦훆돶춼1뫍춼2ꆣ춼1ꆡ닺돶좱뿚(쿖쪵닺돶폫잱퓚닺돶뗄닮뛮햼쿖쪵닺돶뗄냙럖뇈)37' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
맹쟬췺ꆢ볖뾡톩:훐맺잱퓚닺돶폫닺돶좱뿚뗄맀쯣춼2ꆡ쿖쪵닺돶폫잱퓚닺돶뇈뷏춼ꆡꆡ평춼1뫍춼2뿉틔뾴돶,죽훖랽램쯹맀쯣뗄잱퓚닺돶폫닺돶좱뿚맦쒣듦퓚ퟅ뷏듳뗄닮틬ꆣ퓶뎤싊췆쯣램맀쯣뗄잱퓚닺돶뫍닺돶좱뿚맦쒣ퟮ듳,쟒닺돶좱뿚좫뚼쫇뢺횵,풭틲뻍퓚폚헢훖랽램쯹쓚몬뗄잱퓚닺돶룅쓮쫇쿖쪵뺭볃쯹쓜쪵쿖뗄ퟮ듳닺돶ꆣ죽훖랽램쯹맀쯣뗄닺돶좱뿚뗄ퟜ쳥뇤뮯쟷쫆뷏캪튻훂,믹놾랴펳돶1978ꆪ2002쓪컒맺쿖쪵뺭볃뗄퓋탐ힴ뿶:퓚쯄룶뺭볃랱죙뷗뛎,닺돶좱뿚뚼듯떽뷗뛎탔헽뗄ퟮ듳횵(퓶뎤싊췆쯣램뗄뷡맻캪뻸뛔횵뗄ퟮ킡횵);퓚쿖쪵뺭볃뗄쿠뛔뗍뎱웚(1981쓪ퟳ폒뫍1990쓪ퟳ폒),닺돶좱뿚뚼듯떽뷗뛎탔뢺뗄ퟮ듳횵ꆣ떫폫웤쯻솽훖랽램쿠뇈,퓶뎤싊췆쯣램뗄맀쯣뷡맻쿔뗃뷏캪듖닚,헢쳥쿖퓚1997쓪틔뫳뗄맀쯣뷡맻짏ꆣ듓1998쓪뾪쪼,캪쇋훎샭춨믵뷴쯵,컒맺헾뢮닉좡쇋믽벫닆헾헾닟,떽2001쓪ퟳ폒믹놾짏뛴횹힡쇋뺭볃쿂뮬쟷쫆ꆣ헢퓚쿻돽쟷쫆램뫍짺닺몯쫽램뗄맀쯣뷡맻뗃떽쇋뫜뫃쳥쿖:1999쓪틔뫳,닺돶좱뿚퓶볓뗄럹뛈쏷쿔쟷뮺,웤훐쿻돽쟷쫆램뗄맀쯣뷡맻뮹폚2002쓪돶쿖쇋튻룶뫜킡뗄쟌춷,뛸퓶뎤싊췆쯣램뗄뷡맻늢쎻폐랴펳돶헢뛎쪱웚쿖쪵뺭볃뗄뇤뮯쟩뿶ꆣ(뛾)뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐럖컶볲튪뇈뷏죽훖랽램뗄맀쯣뷡맻,컒쏇뾴떽,쿻돽쟷쫆램폫짺닺몯쫽램뗄맀쯣뷡맻쿠뛔폐킧뿉뾿,쯹틔컒쏇훷튪틔헢솽훖랽램뗄맀쯣뷡맻캪틀뻝,뛔컒맺1978ꆪ2002쓪볤뗄뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐뷸탐볲튪움볛ꆣ듓춼1살뾴,1978ꆪ2002쓪볤컒맺뗄닺돶좱뿚돶쿖쇋늨뚯쮮욽헽뢺붻쳦뗄맅뗤훜웚쟩탎:1978ꆪ1988쓪볤뫍1989ꆪ1995쓪볤탎돉쇋솽룶뷏캪췪헻뗄훜웚ꆣ뛸듓1997쓪뾪쪼,헽뗄닺돶좱뿚튻횱퓚쯵킡,늢폚1999쓪ퟳ폒뾪쪼돶쿖뢺횵,쒿잰퓶볓뗄럹뛈쏷쿔쟷뮺,쟒폚2002쓪돶쿖쇋튻킩랴벣쿳ꆣ듋췢,컒쏇듓춼1뮹뿉틔랢쿖헢퇹튻룶쳘뗣:1995쓪틔잰,닺돶좱뿚뗄늨뚯럹뛈뇈뷏뻧쇒쟒뷏캪욵랱;뛸1996쓪쳘뇰쫇1999쓪틔뫳,쯤좻퓚헢웚볤돶쿖쇋룷훖췢늿돥믷(샽죧퇇훞뷰죚캣믺뫍쏀맺ꆰ9ꆤ11ꆱ쫂볾),떫닺돶좱뿚뗄뇤뮯뷏캪욽뮺ꆣ뺿웤풭틲,1995쓪틔잰헽쫇컒맺뺭볃쳥훆뫍쫐뎡쳵볾랢짺뻧쇒욵랱뇤뮯뗄쪱웚,뛸듓1998쓪뾪쪼,컒맺헾뢮믽벫펦뛔췢늿뮷뺳뗄뇤뮯,닉좡쇋믽벫닆헾헾닟,헢뛔뫪맛뺭볃뗄컈뚨웰떽쇋훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣ평듋뾴돶,펰쿬컒맺뫪맛뺭볃컈뚨뗄훷튪틲쯘퓚폚컒맺뺭볃쳥훆뗄뇤룯,뛸쯦ퟅ컒맺쫐뎡뺭볃뗄훰늽췪짆뫍돉쫬틔벰뫪맛뺭볃헾닟퓋폃죕쟷뫏샭,컒맺뺭볃ퟔ짭뗄컈뚨탔뫍뗖폹췢늿돥믷뗄쓜솦붫죕틦볓잿ꆣ컥ꆢ뷡폯쒿잰,맀쯣잱퓚닺돶뫍닺돶좱뿚뗄랽램뇈뷏뛠,놾컄훷튪럖컶뇈뷏쇋쿻돽쟷쫆램ꆢ퓶뎤싊췆쯣38' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2004쓪뗚5웚램뫍짺닺몯쫽램,늢샻폃헢죽훖랽램맀쯣쇋컒맺1978ꆪ2002쓪볤뗄잱퓚닺돶뫍닺돶좱뿚ꆣ뷡맻뇭쏷:(1)1978ꆪ2002쓪볤컒맺뗄닺돶좱뿚돶쿖쇋늨뚯쮮욽헽뢺붻쳦뗄맅뗤훜웚쟩탎;(2)1995쓪틔잰닺돶좱뿚뗄늨뚯럹뛈뇈뷏뻧쇒쟒뷏캪욵랱,1996쓪쳘뇰쫇1999쓪틔뫳닺돶좱뿚뗄뇤뮯뷏캪욽뮺;(3)듓1999쓪뾪쪼,컒맺닺돶좱뿚퓶볓뗄쫆춷쏷쿔쟷뮺,쟒퓚2002쓪돶쿖쇋튻킩랴벣쿳,헢뇭쏷1998쓪뾪쪼쪵쪩뗄믽벫닆헾헾닟퓚뛴훆뺭볃쿂뮬,훎샭춨믵뷴쯵랽쏦웰떽쇋훘튪ퟷ폃;(4)룹뻝쿻돽쟷쫆램뫍짺닺몯쫽램맀쯣뗄잱퓚닺돶,컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽1978ꆪ2002쓪볤뗄욽뻹잱퓚닺돶퓶뎤싊럖뇰캪9153%뫍9159%,맊뿉췆뛏컒맺듋볤뗄욽뻹잱퓚닺돶퓶뎤싊캪9156%ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗맹쟬췺,2001ꆶ:쓚짺퓶뎤샭싛폫닆헾헾닟ꆷ,쇵죜닗ꆢ헔횾퓅훷뇠ꆶ훐맺닆헾샭싛잰퇘ꋲꆷ,짧믡뿆톧컄쿗돶냦짧ꆣ맹쟬췺ꆢ헔횾퓅,2002ꆶ:닆헾톧ꆷ,훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧ꆣ풼몲ꆤ쮹싞싼,2001ꆶ:뺭볃톧ꆷ,훐틫놾,뺭볃뿆톧돶냦짧ꆣ췵뒺헽훷뇠,2003ꆶ:첽쯷ꆤ쪵볹:뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐폫뗷뿘ꆷ,뺭볃뿆톧돶냦짧ꆣ췵킡슳ꆢ랮룙뗈,2000ꆶ:훐맺뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뿉돖탸탔ꆪꆪꆪ뿧쫀볍뗄믘맋폫햹췻ꆷ,뺭볃뿆톧돶냦짧ꆣ췾솮ꆤHꆤ룱쇖,1998ꆶ:뺭볃볆솿럖컶ꆷ훐틫놾,훐맺짧믡뿆톧돶냦짧ꆣ햲쒷쮹ꆤDꆤ몺쏜뛻뛙,1999ꆶ:쪱볤탲쇐럖컶ꆷ,훐틫놾,훐맺짧믡뿆톧돶냦짧ꆣ헅뻼ꆢ헂풪,2003ꆶ:뛔훐맺놾듦솿K뗄퓙맀볆ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚7웚ꆣCanova,F1,1993,ꆰDetrendingandBusinessCycleFactsꆱ,CEPRDiscussionPaper,No17821ChowG1,1993,ꆰCapitalFormationandEconomicGrowthinChinaꆱ,TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,,J.,1993,ꆰHighandPersistentUnemployment:AssessmentoftheProblemandItsCausesꆱ,,C,,,1995,ꆰEstimatingPotentialOutput,OutputGapandStructuralBudgetBalancesꆱ,,,1980,ꆰ:AnEmpricalInvestigationꆱ,WorkingPaper,,.,1963,ꆰFiscalPolicy,CyclesandGrowthꆱ,,,1982,ꆰTrendsandRandomWalksinMacroeconomicsSeriesꆱ,,,1999,ꆰMeasuresofPotentialOutput:AnApplicationtoIsraelꆱ,IMFWorkingPapers,&JiaJunxue(ChinaFinancialPolicyResearchCenter,RenminUniversityofChina)Abstract:Aftercomparingthethreemethodsofestimatingpotentialoutput,thepaperestimatespotentialoutput,:(1)Theoutputgappresentedclassicalbusinesscyclecharacterfrom1978to2002.(2)Theoutputgapfluctuatedmarkedlyandfrequentlybefore1995,butmoresmoothlyafter1996especiallyafter1999.(3)Theincreasingtrendofoutputgapobviouslychangedsmoothlyandpresentedsomeappearancesofturnoverin2002,whichsuggestedtheactivefiscalpolicywhichhadbeenimplementedfrom1998hadsignificanteffectsonpreventingeconomyfromslowdownanddepression.(4)Fortheperiodfrom1978to2002byusingthedetrendingmethodandtheproductionmethodrespectively,:PotentialOutput;OutputGap;DetrendingMethod;GrowthRateExtrapolationMethod;ProductionFunctionMethodJELClassification:E100,C490(퓰죎뇠벭:쯉ꆡ쒾)(킣뛔:뷰)39' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
