Economics 经济学 | Central Banks 中央银⾏
ECB Risks Repeating 2011 Mistake With
Rate Hike, Economists Warn
经济学家警告：欧洲央⾏加息恐重蹈 2011 年
覆辙
By Mark Schroers and Jana Randow
作者：⻢克·施罗尔斯和雅娜·兰多
June 8, 2026 at 12:15 PM GMT+8
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The European Central Bank’s resolve to uphold its inflation-
quashing reputation risks luring it into a damaging error
when it meets this week, economists warn.
经济学家警告称，欧洲央⾏在维护其“遏制通胀”声誉⽅⾯的决
⼼，可能使其在本周的会议上陷⼊⼀个代价⾼昂的错误。
After holding off since the Iran war erupted, officials now
look convinced that an interest-rate hike is needed to stop
soaring energy prices igniting a broader inflation surge. Yet
the case for caution remains strong, with the euro-zone
economy wobbling and investors in danger of interpreting
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any move as the first in a series.
⾃伊朗战争爆发以来，官员们⼀直按兵不动，但如今他们似乎
已确信，必须加息才能阻⽌能源价格飙升引发更⼴泛的通胀浪
潮。然⽽，谨慎⾏事的理由依然充分：欧元区经济摇摇欲坠，
投资者极有可能将任何⼀次加息解读为⼀系列加息举措的开
端。
That dilemma has some analysts arguing that the ECB can
bide its time further to assess how persistent the shock will
be, particularly as the US and Iran work toward a peace
accord. They caution that a premature move could echo
widely criticized rate increases 15 years ago that were later
reversed as Europe’s debt crisis deepened.
这⼀两难局⾯促使⼀些分析师认为，欧洲央⾏可以继续观望，
以评估此次冲击将持续多久，尤其是鉴于美国和伊朗正在努⼒
达成和平协议。他们警告称，过早采取⾏动可能会重蹈 15 年
前⼴受批评的加息覆辙——当时加息后不久，随着欧洲债务危机
的加深，这些加息措施便被撤销了。
“The ECB seems hellbent to prove its credibility,” said TS
Lombard’s Davide Oneglia. “The 2011 hikes were a clear
policy mistake and repeating it is one of the highest risks
we’re facing with the ECB so focused on inflation
expectations and the scars left behind by the 2022
experience.”
“欧洲央⾏似乎决⼼要证明⾃⼰的公信⼒，”TS Lombard 的达
维德·奥内利亚表⽰。“2011 年的加息显然是⼀个政策失误，⽽
重蹈覆辙是我们⽬前⾯临的最⼤风险之⼀——毕竟欧洲央⾏如此
关注通胀预期，且 2022 年的经历留下的阴影依然存在。”
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ECB Responded to Inflation Fears in 2008 and 2011
欧洲央⾏曾在 2008 年和 2011 年对通胀担忧作出回应
Source: Eurostat, ECB 来源：欧盟统计局、欧洲央⾏
Policymakers from hawkish Executive Board member Isabel
Schnabel to dovish Greek central-bank chief Yannis
Stournaras suggest they can no longer “look through” the
energy shock and must preserve trust in the ECB’s
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commitment to keep inflation at 2%.
从鹰派的执⾏委员会成员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔到鸽派的希腊央⾏
⾏长扬尼斯·斯图纳拉斯，政策制定者们均表⽰，他们已⽆法再
对能源冲击“视⽽不见”，必须维护市场对欧洲央⾏将通胀率维
持在 2%这⼀承诺的信⼼。
The latest reading for the 21-nation bloc already hit %,
with further acceleration likely. Even stripping out energy
and food costs, underlying pressures have shifted sharply
higher. Firms’ plans for price increases, meanwhile, are
elevated. Households’ views on where inflation will go from
here are too.
这个由 21 个国家组成的集团的最新通胀读数已达 %，且可
能进⼀步加速。即使剔除能源和⾷品成本，潜在通胀压⼒也已
⼤幅上升。与此同时，企业提价的计划也愈发强烈。家庭对通
胀未来⾛势的预期同样如此。
“The risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations is rising,”
Schnabel cautioned last week.
“通胀预期的锚定风险正在上升，”施纳贝尔上周警告道。
Not everyone’s so concerned. Some analysts say faster core
inflation may be due to factors beyond energy pass-through.
Others see little sign of undue upward forces on things like
wages just yet.
并⾮所有⼈都如此担忧。⼀些分析师认为，核⼼通胀加速可能
源于能源传导效应之外的因素。另⼀些⼈则认为，⽬前尚⽆迹
象表明⼯资等指标⾯临过度的上⾏压⼒。
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“When the ECB hikes before there’s firm evidence of
second-round effects, it risks unwarranted tightening and
will be taking a risk,” said Michala Marcussen, group chief
economist at Societe Generale.
法国兴业银⾏集团⾸席经济学家⽶夏拉·马尔库森表⽰：“如果
欧洲央⾏在尚未出现第⼆轮效应的确凿证据之前就加息，可能
会导致不必要的紧缩，并因此承担风险。”
Such scenarios recall 2008, when the ECB was forced into a
ECB's Trichet Says Rate Cut Signals Unity Between Central
Banks, reversing a July hike just months later when Lehman
Brothers collapsed. But even more economists compare it to
2011, when the ECB under President Jean-Claude Trichet
increased borrowing costs twice, only for Mario Draghi to
cut toward year-end after taking charge.
此类情景令⼈联想到 2008 年，当时欧洲央⾏被迫采取⾏动——
正如欧洲央⾏⾏长特⾥谢所⾔，降息标志着各国央⾏的团结⼀
致——在雷曼兄弟倒闭仅数⽉后，便撤销了 7 ⽉份的加息决定。
但更多经济学家将其与 2011 年相提并论：当时在⾏长让-克洛
德·特⾥谢的领导下，欧洲央⾏曾两次上调借贷成本，⽽马⾥奥
·德拉吉接任后，却在年底前实施了降息。
Back then, policymakers also fretted about spikes in
commodity and energy prices. But they underestimated the
precarious state of the region‘s financial plumbing, and
ultimately the region endured a double-dip recession.
当时，政策制定者们也对⼤宗商品和能源价格的飙升感到忧⼼
忡忡。但他们低估了该地区⾦融体系的脆弱性，最终该地区陷
⼊了⼆次衰退。
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The discussion is fueled by the fact that the ECB is
positioning itself as the most aggressive inflation-fighter
within the Group of Seven central banks, while counterparts
like the Federal Reserve adopt a wait-and-see approach to
evaluate the Iran fallout.
这场讨论的热度源于这样⼀个事实：欧洲央⾏正将⾃⼰定位为
七国集团央⾏中打击通胀最积极的机构，⽽美联储等同⾏则采
取观望态度，以评估伊朗局势带来的影响。
The most recent experience, in 2021-2022, showed the perils
of waiting, however. Russia’s attack on Ukraine jolted energy
markets and sent inflation to a record %. Despite an
unprecedented campaign of monetary tightening, many
said the ECB acted too late.
然⽽，2021 ⾄ 2022 年的最新经验表明，等待是极其危险的。
俄罗斯对乌克兰的⼊侵冲击了能源市场，并将通胀率推升⾄创
纪录的 %。尽管欧洲央⾏实施了史⽆前例的货币紧缩政
策，但许多⼈认为其⾏动为时已晚。
For former ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet, “at some point
you have to show that you’re willing to act.”
对于欧洲央⾏前⾸席经济学家彼得·普雷特⽽⾔，“到了某个时
候，你必须表明⾃⼰愿意采取⾏动。”
While Finland’s Olli Rehn has described this week’s likely
action as an “insurance hike,” Praet said it’s more like “a
warning shot to show you mean it.” He stressed, however,
the “importance” of not signaling “that this is the first in a
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series of hikes.”
虽然芬兰的奥利·雷恩将本周可能采取的⾏动描述为“保险性加
息”，但普雷特表⽰，这更像是“⼀记警告性射击，以表明你的
决⼼”。不过，他强调，必须避免发出“这是系列加息中的第⼀
步”这⼀信号，这⼀点“⾄关重要”。
Euro-Area PMI at Lowest Level Since 2024
欧元区 PMI 降⾄ 2024 年以来最低⽔平
Source: S&P Global 来源：标普全球
There are those who see a rate increase as justified, even if
shifting data prompt a rethink down the line. Economic
expansion is waning, particularly in France. Business
activity is shrinking at the quickest pace since 2024.
有些⼈认为加息是合理的，即使未来数据的变化可能会促使⼈
们重新考虑这⼀决定。经济增长势头正在减弱，尤其是在法
国。商业活动萎缩的速度已达到 2024 年以来的最⾼⽔平。
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The euro-zone economy shrank at the start of the year after
an unprecedented contraction in Ireland forced a revision to
data that originally showed feeble growth. Excluding Irish
figures, it grew %%, according to Bantleon
calculation.
今年年初，欧元区经济出现萎缩，此前爱尔兰经济遭遇了史⽆
前例的收缩，导致原本显⽰微弱增长的数据被迫进⾏修正。据
班特利昂（Bantleon）的计算，若剔除爱尔兰的数据，欧元区
经济增长了 %⾄ %。
Policymakers will “give themselves scope to say if the
situation changes materially, if the economy really starts to
deteriorate in the way some of these surveys are showing,
we will cut,” Katharine Neiss, chief European economist at
PGIM, told Bloomberg TV.
PGIM 欧洲⾸席经济学家凯瑟琳·奈斯在接受彭博电视台采访时
表⽰，政策制定者将“为⾃⼰留有余地，以便在局势发⽣实质
性变化、经济真的像某些调查显⽰的那样开始恶化时，采取降
息措施”。
“They will do it in a way that gives them the space to do that
without the reversal affecting their credibility,” she said,
predicting a “dovish tone.”
“他们会以⼀种既能留有余地，又不⾄于因政策逆转⽽损害⾃
⾝公信⼒的⽅式来操作，”她说道，并预测政策基调将“偏向鸽
派”。
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PGIM economist Katharine Neiss on Bloomberg Television.
Source: Bloomberg
PGIM 经济学家凯瑟琳·奈斯在彭博电视台的采访。来源：彭博
社
Like investors, economists see two quarter-point rate rises
this year, possibly what President Christine Lagarde meant
by a “measured adjustment” to an inflation overshoot that’s
big but should be temporary. They see at least one cut in
mid-2027, however.
与投资者⼀样，经济学家预计今年将有两次 25 个基点的加
息，这或许正是克⾥斯蒂娜·拉加德⾏长所说的针对通胀⼤幅超
标（尽管规模较⼤但应属暂时性）的“适度调整”。不过，他们
预计 2027 年年中⾄少会降息⼀次。
Jens Eisenschmidt, chief European economist at Morgan
Stanley who’s worked at the ECB in the past, predicts two
hikes in the months ahead, with both to be undone next
year. That outcome shouldn’t be viewed as a policy error,
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though, he said.
摩根⼠丹利欧洲⾸席经济学家延斯·艾森施密特（Jens
Eisenschmidt）曾任职于欧洲央⾏，他预测未来数⽉将加息两
次，但这两次加息都将在明年被撤销。不过他表⽰，这种结果
不应被视为政策失误。
A June move to address above-target inflation and rising
price expectations “would likely be a carefully-weighed
decision under uncertainty,” Eisenschmidt said. “Likewise,
a decision to cut rates a year after would likely be motivated
by an assessment that the insurance provided by a tighter
policy stance was no longer needed.”
艾森施密特表⽰，6 ⽉份为应对⾼于⽬标的通胀和不断上升的
通胀预期⽽采取的⾏动，“很可能是基于不确定性做出的深思
熟虑的决定”。“同样，⼀年后决定降息，很可能是基于这样⼀
种评估：即更紧缩的政策⽴场所提供的‘保险’已不再必要。”
Such justifications don’t fly for some. Holger Schmieding,
chief economist at Berenberg, reckons ECB tightening will
burden households and firms unnecessarily, with inflation
pressures likely to dissipate regardless due to economic
weakness.
对某些⼈来说，这种说辞根本站不住脚。贝伦贝格⾸席经济学
家霍尔格·施⽶丁认为，欧洲央⾏的紧缩政策将给家庭和企业带
来不必要的负担，⽽且由于经济疲软，通胀压⼒很可能最终会
⾃⾏消退。
There’s “no need for an ECB hike amid consumer misery,”
he said. Given headwinds to demand, “the inevitable
temporary surge in prices seems unlikely to turn into a
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protracted inflation problem to be addressed by rate hikes.”
他表⽰：“在消费者陷⼊困境之际，欧洲央⾏没有必要加息。”
鉴于需求⾯临逆风，“价格不可避免的暂时性上涨似乎不太可
能演变为需要通过加息来解决的长期通胀问题。”
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