뗚47뻭ꆡ뗚5웚쿃쏅듳톧톧놨(ퟔ좻뿆톧냦)ꆡꆡ2008쓪9퓂JournalofXiamenUniversity(NaturalScience)ꆡ쮫맑춷럇뛔돆춨탅쫐뎡펪쿺뺺헹쫽톧쒣탍럖컶쏏ꆡ솦1,룟ꆡ뒳2,퇮뫩첩2(1.쿃쏅듳톧맜샭톧풺,뢣붨쿃쏅361005;2.쇉쓾듳톧훐맺솪춨짲퇴럖릫쮾웳튵늩쪿뫳릤ퟷ햾,쇉쓾짲퇴110036)햪튪:싛쫶쇋뷼쓪살틆뚯춨탅쫐뎡랢햹ힴ뿶,ퟅ훘럖컶퇐뺿쇋늻좷뚨탔쳵볾쿂뗄훐맺틆뚯뫍훐맺솪춨럇뛔돆쮫춷슢뛏쫐뎡쫽톧쒣탍,웊컶쇋쮫랽뿉쓜돶쿖뗄쓉쪲뻹뫢뷢뫍뷢듦퓚뗄쳵볾폫볙짨,췆떼쇋틆뚯쇬떼헟뫍솪춨룺쯦헟릫쮾뗄볛횵벰쿠펦뗄쇙뷧횵,뷡싛폫쿖쪵쿠럻;춬쪱춨맽폐맘쫽샭쒣탍럖컶ꆢ볆쯣뮭춼쮵쏷쇋틆뚯뫍솪춨캪럇뛔돆쪱뗄룷ퟔퟮ폅펪쿺닟싔.맘볼듊:뺺헹닟싔;맑춷슢뛏;쿈뚯폅쫆훐춼럖샠뫅:ꆡꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:043820479(2008)0520647205ꆡꆡퟔ듓컒맺헽쪽췆돶틆뚯춨탅튵컱틔살,훐맺틆뚯퓚춨탅탐튵훐튻훖뇈뷏쪵볊뗄볙짨쫇늻좷뚨쿂럇뗄쒣쓢벼쫵튻횱슢뛏ퟅ훐맺틆뚯춨탅쫐뎡.1999쓪,뛔돆쮫춷슢뛏쒣탍.쏦뛔춬퇹뗄튻룶럾컱닺욷,튻룶릫훐맺솪춨틔뷸죫헟뗄짭럝뷸죫훐맺틆뚯쫐뎡,뾪쪼뺭쮾뗄짺닺돉놾뇈쇭튻룶릫쮾뗍,쯹틔솽룶릫쮾늻쫇춬펪믹폚GSM뗄틆뚯춨탅튵컱.떱쪱훐맺틆뚯(솥쫴폚훊뗄,뗍돉놾릫쮾뇈룟돉놾릫쮾뻟폐뺺헹폅쫆,뛔듋펦훐맺뗧탅)펵폐만췸뗄욿뺱폅쫆,헢쫇훐맺솪춨컞램폫닉폃늻좷뚨탔쳵볾쿂뗄럇뛔돆쮫춷슢뛏쫐뎡쒣탍럖횮뾹뫢뗄,횱훁1999쓪,훐맺솪춨뗄쫐뎡햼폐싊튲횻컶[4].폐5%,1999쓪,훐맺뗧탅뫍훐맺틆뚯헛럖뫳,훐맺틆ꆡ럇뛔돆쿂Cournot쮫춷슢뛏쒣탍뗄ퟮ병뚯늻퓙펵폐만췸폅쫆,듓헢쪱뫲웰,훐맺틆뚯춨탅쫐뎡슢뛏샻죳뫍뻹뫢샻죳뾪쪼쇋헽쪽뗄뺺헹.1998쓪,훐맺솪춨뷸죫쇋룟쯙뗄컒쏇볙짨튻룶닺솿평Cournot뺺헹뻶뚨뗄쿟탎탨퓶뎤웚,솬탸3쓪놣돖쇋200%틔짏뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈,떽쟳몯쫽,떱Y(t)=1쪱:2001쓪뗗,훐맺솪춨폃뮧쫽틑뺭햼헻룶쫐뎡뗄P=a-bQT(1)%,2002쓪훁뷱컒맺춨탅쫐뎡틑탎돉쇋쮫맑춷슢웤훐:a>0,b>0;a>bQT.뛏뷗뛎.폫튻냣뗄쮫맑춷슢뛏쫐뎡늻춬뗄쫇,훐맺틆뚯헢샯:P쫇닺욷볛룱,쯼쫇좫늿닺솿QT(=Ql+춨탅쫐뎡뷸죫맑춷슢뛏틔뫳,쯤좻쫐뎡럝뛮믹놾만뚨,Qh)뗄몯쫽.떫쫇볛룱햽늻떫쎻폐춣횹,랴뛸폐늻뛏짽벶뗄벣쿳,뛸퓚탐쪹춶웚좨훐,뛔폚뗍돉놾릫쮾l짺닺돉놾웳튵뗄킧틦튲쎻폐뗃떽듳럹뛈뗄쳡짽.죧뫎듓샭싛짏쫇C죏쪶럖컶헢훖쿖쿳,죧뫎듓쳡룟룷ퟔ킧틦뗄뷇뛈퇐뺿lꆢ룟돉놾릫쮾쫇Ch,뗍돉놾릫쮾뗄뺺헹폅쫆뿉뇭춨탅쫐뎡펪쿺뺺헹닟싔돉캪뫜뛠퇐뺿헟맘힢뗄뮰쪾돉Cl<Ch.폚쫇샻죳몯쫽ꛐi(Qi)뿉뇭쪾캪:ꛐi(쳢Qi)=Qi[a-bQT-ci](2)[1-3].놾컄붫룹뻝늩?럖컶뫍웚좨샭싛[4-11],퇐뺿퓚춨탅쫐뎡탨쟳늻좷뚨뗄쳵볾쿂늢쟒쮫맑춷슢뛏캪럇뛔듓Cournot뗄쮫춷슢뛏쒣탍뗃떽뗍돉놾릫쮾L뗄돆쪱뗄펪쿺뺺헹닟싔ퟮ병슢뛏뫍뻹뫢샻죳쇷죧쿂:,춨맽샭싛럖컶볆쯣뮭춼쮵쏷룷ퟔ뗄ퟮ폅펪쿺닟싔ꛐ2(-cL)ML=a(3).4b1ꆡ늻좷뚨탔쳵볾쿂뗄럇뛔돆쮫춷슢뛏ꛐ(a-2cLL=+2cH)(4)9b쫐뎡쒣탍룟돉놾릫쮾H뗄ퟮ병슢뛏뫍뻹뫢샻죳쇷:ꛐ2(MH=a-cH)(ꆡꆡ5)4b쫕룥죕웚:2008201206믹뷰쿮쒿:뷌폽늿짧뿆맦뮮쿮쒿ꛐ(H=a-22cH+cL)(6)(07JA790033)훺9bEmail:menliweida@ꆡ룟돉놾릫쮾ퟷ캪룺쯦헟뗄볛횵뫍쇙뷧횵' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆤ648ꆤ쿃쏅듳톧톧놨(ퟔ좻뿆톧냦)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2008쓪퓚뗍돉놾릫쮾ퟷ캪쇬떼헟틑뷸죫잰쳡쿂,폃헛쿖RꛂYF(Y1,YF)=-ꛂꛂ1Y/[Y1+1F](14)랽램볆쯣룟돉놾릫쮾룺쯦헟볛횵Fh(Y)뫍쇙뷧횵붫뗈쪽(11)뫍(14)듺죫쪽(13),뺭맽듺쫽뇤뮻헻샭뗃YFh,샻폃쫗쿈떽듯쪱볤뫍풤웚뗄헛쿖틲ퟓ룅쓮,죃T3떽룟돉놾릫쮾룺쯦쇙뷧횵YFh캪:듺뇭쯦믺뇤솿Y쫗쿈떽듯쇙뷧횵쮮욽Y3뗄쪱볤.헢ꛂ샯룺쯦헟볛횵평솽늿럖ퟩ돉YFh=1(r-a)Iꛂ(1-1D(l,h)-D15)(l,0),듓t=0떽t=T3볤캴탐쪹웚좨뗄샻죳쇷뫍듓t=T3떽t=ꇞ볤탐쪹웚좨평폚[D(l,h)-D(l,0)]캪룟돉놾릫쮾퓚쇙뷧횵뗄샻죳쇷.춨맽헛쿖릫쮾쿖퓚볛횵캪:YFh탐쪹웚좨뗄뻹뫢샻죳:ꛐ2(a-2cH+cL)Fh(y)=D(l,h)E-rT3YFh[e]{-I}(7)H=,r-a9b웤훐쯦믺헛쿖틲ퟓ:맊:ꛂꛄIE-rT3[e]=Yꛂ()1(8)YFh=19bꛂ16)YFh1-1(a-2Ch+C2(l)쇭췢룟돉놾릫쮾퓚쇙뷧횵YFh탐쪹웚좨뗄샻죳캪뻹뫢ꆡ뗍돉놾릫쮾ퟷ캪쇬떼헟뗄볛횵뫍쇙뷧횵샻죳:뗍돉놾쇬떼헟릫쮾퓚쫐뎡훐뺭샺쇋슢뛏뷗뛎,웤ꛐ2(L)샻죳쇷YD(l,0),떱퓚t=T3,YFh뒦쪱,샻죳뗸훁H=a-2cH+c,9bYD(l,h).쪹폃쿂쏦랽램볆쯣쇬떼헟볛횵:L(Y)=맊,뺭맽듺쫽헻샭뗃쟳돶룟돉놾릫쮾H룺쯦헟볛횵[볻릫쪽V(Y)-I,웤훐볛횵V(Y)퓚뇟뷧뗣Y=YFh탨튪폫춬(7)]캪:쪱춶뗄룟돉놾릫쮾룺쯦헟볛횵쿠욥엤.V(Y)펦싺ퟣFh(Y)=죧쿂욫캢럖랽돌:2(a-2ch+cl)YFhYꛂ[)1,Y<ꛒ2Y2VYY+ꛁYVY-rV+YD(l,0)=0,ꆡ9bꛄ-I](YFh짏쪽ퟮ뫳튻쿮쫇슢뛏뷗뛎뗄샻죳쇷.듋랽돌뗄뷢평춨(a-2ch+2cl)Y[9bꛄ-I],Y>YFh뷢볓짏튻룶쳘뷢쯹릹돉:(9)V(Y)=BꛂY1+YD(l,0)(17)웤훐r-a:ꛄ=r-a.쿂쏦퓋폃ퟮ폅뮯랽램쟳룟돉놾릫쮾룺쯦쇙뷧횵뎣솿B평쿂쏦뇟볊쳵볾좷뚨:.듓웚좨퓋폃훐뗃떽뺻쿖횵V(YF)=YFD(l,h)/(r-ꛁ),:폚쫇뗃떽:NPVF=V(Y)-I.틲뗈듽쿮쒿-D(l,0)]V(Y)폐룼룟볛횵탨튪퇓뎤쪱볤듓뛸B=YFh[D(l,h)ꛂ(18)쪹헛쿖틲ퟓ뇤킡,맊퓚헢룶쿮쒿볛횵샻죳욽뫢닟싔훐YF1h(r-a),듦퓚튻룶ퟮ병뗄Y횵,듋뒦탐쪹웚좨쿮쒿헛쿖볛횵ퟮ붫뗈쪽(18)듸죫뗈쪽(17),뿉뗃떽퓚슢뛏뷗뛎릫쮾볛듳횵V(Y).틲듋,죧맻Y<YF,쇬떼볛횵평쿂쪽뗃돶:.쿂쏦춨맽몯쫽G(Y)뇭쪾쮵쏷:GL(Y)=MaxE-rt[e][V(Y)-I](10)l(Y)=YD(l,0)+Yr-a퓚ퟮ병Y횵탐쪹웚좨뗄쫕틦쫇:ꆡYꛂYFh[D(l,h)-D(l,0)]()1-I(19)V(Y)=Y[D(YFhr-al,h)-D(l,0)]/(r-ꛁ)폃R(Y,YF)뇭쪾웚췻헛쿖틲ퟓ틲캪:2R(Y,YF)=E[exp(-rT3)]=(Y/YꛂlF)(11)D(a-cL)(l,0)=ꛐML=,틲듋ퟮ듳뮯컊쳢뇤돉4b:G(Y)=MaxR(Y,YF)({Y[D(l,h)-D(l,0)]/D(l,h)=ꛐ(L=a-2cL+2cH),ꆡ9b(r-ꛁ)}-I)(12)쪽맊폐쇬떼볛횵:(12)ퟮ듳뮯,쫗쿈탨튪뛔G(Y)쟳Y뗄욫캢럖춬쪱2(쇮웤캪쇣,폚쫇뗃떽l)y(+a-2cl+2ch)L1=a-c[-:4bꛄ9bR(Y2,YF)[D(L,H)-D(L,0)]/(r-ꛁ)+ꆡꆡ(a-cl)YFhYꛂ])1-I(20)RYF(Y,YF)ꆤYF[D(L,H)-D(L,0)]/(r-ꛁ)=4bꛄ(YFhꆡRYF(Y,YF)ꆤI(13)쿂쏦럖컶뗍돉놾쇬떼헟뗄쇙뷧횵.죧맻쎻폐쿈뚯춨맽뛔뗈쪽(11)뿉쟳뗃:뗄췾킲,뗍돉놾릫쮾믡퓚슢뛏쇙뷧횵뗣YMl뷸탐ퟮ폅' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚5웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ쏏ꆡ솦뗈:쮫맑춷럇뛔돆춨탅쫐뎡펪쿺뺺헹쫽톧쒣탍럖컶ꆤ649ꆤꆡꆡ춼1ꆡ쇬떼헟ꆢ룺쯦헟뫍춬쪱춶뗄볛횵벰쇙뷧횵ꆡLeader,follower,andsimultaneousvaluesforlow2costandhigh2costfirms춶,떫쫇평폚듦퓚쿈뚯뗄췾킲,릫쮾늻쓜뗈쓇쎴뻃닅YB뗣,맊뗍돉놾릫쮾뗄쇬떼헟쇙뷧횵뿉럅뿭떽YB뗣.춶.죧맻튻룶릫쮾뗈떽Y=YM쪱닅춶,웤쯻릫쮾럖컶웴쪾:볙짨훐맺틆뚯캪뗍돉놾뗄쫐뎡쇬떼헟믡퓚YM-ꛅ쪱뻍춶.헢룶맽돌톭뮷췹뢴횱떽죎뫎튻릫쮾,훐맺솪춨캪룟돉놾뗄쫐뎡룺쯦헟릫쮾,쓇쎴듓춼룶릫쮾뚼쎻폐쿈뚯뗄틢풸쪱닅춣횹.죧맻Ll>Fl,뗍1훐뿉뾴돶:돉놾릫쮾듦폐돉캪쇬떼헟뗄뚯믺,떫쫇쎻폐뇘튪솢벴1)퓚쫐뎡탨쟳캪YB훁YC횮볤쪱,컞싛쫇뗍돉놾뻍퓚헢튻뗣짏춶,틲캪뗍돉놾릫쮾횪뗀,횻폐퓚Lh뗄쫐뎡쇬떼헟릫쮾틆뚯뮹쫇룟돉놾뗄쫐뎡룺쯦헟릫쮾ꇝFh뗄쳵볾쿂,룟돉놾릫쮾닅듦폐돉캪쇬떼헟뗄뚯솪춨,웤쿈뚯쿈춶믺믡볛횵뚼듳폚웤룺쯦헟뗄믺믡믺.쯹틔,뗍돉놾릫쮾돉캪쇬떼헟뗄닟싔펦쫇퓚Lh=볛횵,떫쮫랽춬쪱릫쮾폖뚼몦엂춬쪱춶,헢쫇틲캪춬Fh쪱닅펦뷸탐춶(뻟쳥볻럂헦볆쯣춼1럖컶).쪱춶볛횵뇈룷ퟔퟷ캪룺쯦헟뗄볛횵뗍.헢튻뛎춼탎ꆡ럂헦볆쯣쇬떼헟뫍룺쯦헟틔벰춬쪱춶뿉틔뷢쫍캪쪲쎴쫐뎡탨쟳퓚튻뚨뗄쳵볾쿂,훐맺틆뚯뗄볛횵ꆢ쇙뷧횵뫍훐맺솪춨뚼튪쟀쿈뚯쫖춶틔쳡룟릫쮾뗄믺믡볛룟돉놾릫쮾ퟷ캪룺쯦헟뗄볛횵뫍쇙뷧횵뫍뗍돉놾횵,떫춬쪱폖떣탄쮫랽춬쪱춶.릫쮾ퟷ캪쇬떼헟뗄볛횵뫍쇙뷧횵짏쫶틑ퟷ럖컶,맘폚2)퓚쫐뎡탨쟳뷏듳Y(t)>YC쪱,룺쯦헟릫쮾늻쿠랴뗄쟩뿶벴뗍돉놾릫쮾ퟷ캪룺쯦헟뗄볛횵뫍쇙뷧횵퓙닉좡룺쯦닟싔,뛸쫇닉좡솢벴춶틔쳡룟릫쮾뗄쿖뫍룟돉놾릫쮾ퟷ캪쇬떼헟뗄볛횵뫍쇙뷧횵뿉ퟱ톭샠쯆폐믺믡볛횵,헢쫇틲캪룺쯦헟릫쮾춬쪱춶뗄릫쮾믺뗄랽램늽훨뗄뷸탐볆쯣,떫쫇헢훖쟩뿶돶쿖뷏짙,놾컄믡볛횵듳폚룺쯦닟싔뗄릫쮾믺믡볛횵.헢튻뗣튲퇩횤늻ퟶ럖컶.쿂쏦폃럂헦쫽횵볆쯣룟돉놾릫쮾뫍뗍돉놾쇋퓚춨탅쫐뎡탨쟳솿뷏듳쪱,훐맺솪춨늻믡ퟜ쫇닉좡릫쮾ퟷ캪쇬떼헟뫍룺쯦헟벰쮫랽춬쪱춶쯹뻟폐뗄볛룺쯦훐맺틆뚯뗄닟싔,뛸쫇룃춶쪱뻍춶,쟀햼폐솦횵,볻춼1.쪱믺틔쳡룟릫쮾뗄캴살랢햹뿕볤.듓춼1럖컶뿉뗃떽:1)룟돉놾릫쮾퓚YB훁YC횮3)퓚헻룶쫐뎡탨쟳뇤뮯맽돌훐,뗍돉놾뗄쫐뎡쇬볤,틲돉캪쇬떼헟뗄볛횵듳폚룺쯦헟볛횵,맊듦폐돉캪떼헟릫쮾틆뚯웤춬쪱춶뗄쫐뎡믺믡볛횵튪듳폚룟돉쇬떼헟릫쮾뗄뚯믺,헢퇹YB훁YC볤룟뫍뗍돉놾솽룶놾뗄쫐뎡룺쯦헟릫쮾솪춨.쒣탍랴펳돶뗄헢튻뗣쫐뎡릫쮾뚼쿫돉캪쇬떼헟,떫쮫랽릫쮾폖뚼몦엂춬쪱춶,튲룸폨쇋퇩횤:퓚춨탅쫐뎡늩?훐틆뚯폐쪱쿔뗃룼볓헢쫇틲캪춬쪱춶볛횵뇈룷ퟔퟷ캪룺쯦헟뗄볛횵뗍,훷뚯ꆢ뗗웸탅탄룼ퟣ튻킩.쯹틔퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂뷢뻶춶폅뮯컊쳢펦떱쪹폃늩?샭ꆡ쮫랽늩?믬뫏닟싔싛훐뗄ꆰ믬뫏닟싔ꆱ.2)뗍돉놾릫쮾뗄쇬떼헟쇙뷧횵풭쿖퓚볙짨탨쟳ힴ첬뗄쫇뷩폚YB뫍YC횮볤,헽죧퓚YA뗣,떫쫇뾼싇떽룟돉놾릫쮾뗄쇬떼헟쇙뷧횵퓚짏쫶럖컶쪱쯹횸돶쪹폃늩?샭싛훐뗄ꆰ믬뫏닟싔ꆱ쫇' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆤ650ꆤ쿃쏅듳톧톧놨(ퟔ좻뿆톧냦)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2008쓪릫쮾2p2(ꛓ)1-p2(ꛓ)릫S(Y(t)),S(Y(t))L(Y(t)),쮾p1(ꛓ)F(Y(t))1-p1(ꛓ)F(Y(t)),L(Y(t))훘뢴뺺헹1ꆡꆡ춼2ꆡ퓚ꛓ뗄춬쪱뗄늩?ꆡꆡꆡSimultaneousgameatꛓ뷢뻶듋쮫랽춶컊쳢뗄캨튻샭탔랽램.쿂쏦럖컶뗍돉놾릫쮾뗄믬뫏닟싔,룟돉놾릫쮾뿉ퟶ샠쯆럖컶.늩?춼2랴펳쇋뗍돉놾릫쮾1뫍룟돉놾릫쮾2퓚ꆡ춼3ꆡ럇뛔돆쮫춷슢뛏뗄ퟮ훷튪췪쏀쓉쪲뻹뫢쪱볤ꛓ뒦닉좡뗄늻춬춶닟싔벰룷ퟔ펮뗃.ꆡThemainperfectnashequilibriuminasymmetric웤훐:P1(ꛓ)듺뇭뗍돉놾릫쮾춶룅싊;P2(ꛓ)룟duopoly돉놾릫쮾춶룅싊;S(Y(t));F(Y(t));L(Y(t))캪룟돉놾릫쮾뗄펮뗃훷튪뗄췪쏀쓉쪲뻹뫢..뗍돉놾릫쮾1뗄볛횵평쿂쪽룸돶럖컶웴쪾:춬퇹볙짨훐맺틆뚯캪뗍돉놾뗄쫐뎡쇬:V떼헟릫쮾,훐맺솪춨캪룟돉놾뗄쫐뎡룺쯦헟릫쮾,쓇쎴1=p1p2S+p1(1-p2)L+(1-p1)p2F+ꆡ(1듓춼3훐뿉뾴돶:훐맺틆뚯뫍훐맺솪춨쮫랽퓚튻뚨뗄-p1)(1-p2)V1(21)ퟮ뫳튻쿮틢캶ퟅ쮫랽뚼캴춶쪱,릫쮾1뗄볛횵죔캪쫐뎡탨쟳쿂,뾪랢탂닺욷쪱,쿈뚯쿈춶웤릫쮾쫐뎡믺V믡볛횵튻냣튪뷏듳쟒뻟폐쿈뚯쿈춶뗄폅쫆,떫춬쪱1.짏쪽뷸튻늽햹뾪헻샭뿉뗃죧쿂쪽ퟓV1=[p1p2S+p1(1떣탄쮫랽춬쪱춶,춬쪱춶쫐뎡믺믡볛횵뷏킡.헢튻-p2)L+(1-p1)p2F]ꆤꆡ[1+(1-p1)(1-p2)+(12-p1)(12-p2)+ꆤ뗣퇩횤쮵쏷쇋쮫랽틑뷸죫떽ꆰ믬뫏늩?ꆱힴ첬쓇쎴쪹](22)폃늩?샭싛훐뗄ꆰ믬뫏닟싔ꆱ쫇뷢뻶듋컊쳢뗄캨튻샭릫쪽(22)랴펳뗄쫇튻싖늩?쟩뿶,컞쫽듎늩?쟩뿶평탔랽램,평폚뗍돉놾릫쮾늻첫뻥엂춬쪱춶,룟돉놾릫쪽(23)뇭듯,헢쫇튻룶뗈뇈벶쫽틗쟳뗃쮾뷏캪뻥엂춬쪱춶,쯹틔ퟮ훷튪뗄췪쏀쓉쪲뻹뫢뷢:튲쫇쮫랽뗄ퟮ폅뺺헹닟싔,벴:퓚YB훁YC횮볤뗍돉놾v1=p1p2s+p1(1-p2)L+(1-p1)p2F(23)1-[(1-p1)(1-p2)]릫쮾틔쇬떼헟뷸죫,룟돉놾릫쮾ퟷ캪ힷ쯦헟,퓚Y>쿂쏦탨튪짨뚨ퟮ폅룅싊틔쪹헢룶웚췻볛횵ViퟮYC퓲뗍돉놾뫍룟돉놾릫쮾뚼춶.듳뮯,뛔듋폅뮯뗄뗚1룶쳵볾쫇5V1/5p1=0.뗚2룶쳵볾쫇샻폃룟돉놾릫쮾춶ퟮ폅룅싊쳵볾:5V2/5p2ꆡ뷡ꆡ싛2=0.(v2뗄쟳뗃폫짏쫶v1샠쯆).펦폃짏쫶솽룶쳵볾,솪솢랽돌뗃떽뗍돉놾릫쮾1믬뫏닟싔뗄ퟮ폅춶룅싊놾컄룹뻝늩?럖컶뫍웚좨샭싛,퇐뺿쇋춨탅쫐뎡캪탨쟳늻좷뚨뗄쳵볾쿂늢쟒쮫맑춷슢뛏캪럇뛔돆쪱뗄펪:쿺뺺헹닟싔,춨맽폐맘쫽샭쒣탍럖컶볆쯣뮭춼쮵쏷쇋P31=L-F(24)L룷ퟔ뗄ퟮ폅펪쿺닟싔,훷튪뷡싛죧쿂:-S춬샭룟돉놾릫쮾1)퓚헻룶쫐뎡탨쟳뇤뮯맽돌훐,뗍돉놾뗄쫐뎡쇬2뗄믬뫏닟싔ퟮ폅춶룅싊캪:떼헟릫쮾틆뚯웤춬쪱춶뗄쫐뎡믺믡볛횵튪듳폚룟돉P32=L-F(25)L-S놾뗄쫐뎡룺쯦헟릫쮾솪춨,퓚춨탅쫐뎡늩?훐틆뚯틲쇭튻훖쟩뿶럖컶:퓚탨쟳돥믷놶쫽YB훁YC횮볤,쯤좻듋폐쪱믡쿔뗃룼볓훷뚯ꆢ뗗웸룼ퟣ튻킩.룟돉놾릫쮾쇬떼볛횵듳폚룺쯦헟볛횵,떫쫇뗍돉놾릫2)훐맺틆뚯뫍훐맺솪춨쮫랽퓚튻뚨뗄쫐뎡탨쟳쮾쟩뿶튲쫇죧듋,늢쟒뗍돉놾릫쮾춬쪱춶볛횵룟폚쿂,뾪랢탂닺욷쪱죧맻쮫랽틑뷸죫떽ꆰ믬뫏늩?ꆱힴ첬,룟돉놾릫쮾춬쪱춶볛횵,틲듋뗍돉놾릫쮾늻첫뻥엂쓇쎴쪹폃늩?샭싛훐뗄ꆰ믬뫏닟싔ꆱ쫇뷢뻶듋컊쳢뗄캨춬쪱춶,랴뛸룟돉놾릫쮾좴뷏캪뻥엂춬쪱춶,쯹틔튻샭탔랽램늢쟒췪쏀쓉쪲뻹뫢뷢튲쫇쮫랽뗄ퟮ폅뺺헹ퟮ훷튪뗄췪쏀쓉쪲뻹뫢뷢쫇:퓚YB훁YC횮볤뗍돉놾닟싔.릫쮾틔쇬떼헟뷸죫,룟돉놾릫쮾ퟷ캪ힷ쯦헟,퓚Y>YC퓲뗍돉놾뫍룟돉놾릫쮾뚼춶.춼3햹쪾쇋헢훖ퟮ' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚5웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ쏏ꆡ솦뗈:쮫맑춷럇뛔돆춨탅쫐뎡펪쿺뺺헹쫽톧쒣탍럖컶ꆤ651ꆤ닎뾼컄쿗:2002,24(19):889-892.[7]ꆡDixitAK,[1]ꆡ쳚펱.컒맺뗧탅쫐뎡룱뻖폫뗧탅튵랢햹럖컶[J].뗧ퟓ뿆벼듳톧톧놨,2001(3):36-41malinvestmentrules[J].EconomicJournal,1999,4:.[2]ꆡ샮죴엳.틆뚯춨탅쫐뎡붩뻖뗄돉틲벰웆뷢횮뗀[J].쫀뷧뗧탅,2004,6:56-61[8]ꆡ:[J].Review[3]ꆡ컢폀쳎,헅쿩,샮틣.뗧탅퓋펪맑햼쫐뎡늻뛔돆뺺헹늩?럖컶ofFinancialStudies,2002,15:691-721.[J].쫽솿뺭볃벼쫵뺭볃퇐뺿,2002(2):40-43.[4]ꆡ쏏솦,췴뚨캰.늻좷뚨쳵볾쿂쮫춷슢뛏웚좨늩?퇐뺿[J[9]ꆡMcDonaldR,[J].].쾵춳릤돌샭싛랽램펦폃,2006QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,2001,12:707-727.,15(1):20-26.[5]ꆡ쏏솦,쯯췾,췴뚨캰.맘폚늨뚯싊폫춶룅싊횮볤맘쾵뗄[10]ꆡ낲,헅캬.웚좨늩?샭싛뗄랽램쒣탍럖컶폫랢햹뷸튻늽퇐뺿[J].맜샭뿆톧톧놨,2003,4(1):38-44.[J].뿘훆폫뻶닟,2005,20(1):96-99.[11]ꆡ쏏솦,쯯췾.믹폚웚좨늩?뗄뗧톶짨놸웳튵춶뻶닟퇐[6]ꆡ쏏솦,췵돧쾲,췴뚨캰,뗈.믹폚잶죫웚좨쿖뷰쇷솿춼뗄쪵컯웚좨럖컶폫퇐뺿[J].뚫놱듳톧톧놨:ퟔ좻뿆톧냦뺿[J].뿘훆폫릤돌,2006,13(73):78-81.,AnalysesofCommunicationsMarketingCompetitionMathematicalModelforAsymmetricalDuopolyinUncertaintyMENGL1i,GAOChuang2,YANGHong22tai(,XiamenUniversity,Xiamen361005,China;-ChinaUnicomShenyangBranchPostdoctoralStation,Shenyang110036,China)Abstract:,,non2bindingcol2lusion,mainandsecondaryperfect2Nashequilibriumsinpurestrategies,firstmoveradvantagesituationsthatmixedstrategiesarenecessary,probabilityofsimultaneousexerciseasmistake,effectofthecompetitiveadvantage,:competitionstrategy;duopolymonopolization;preemption' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
