:&"3 iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii ∗ oܪp൧ӆࢲܒaસၞૂࢺაસၞഅקࡎ iiٳ༅ॿࡏࠣࠎႿૣસၞൎ֥σ২࣮ đ12ᄶള 1čᆄࡾ॓࿐ჽ ࣜ࠶ܵ࿐ჽđᆄࡾݳᇜ 310023Ď 2čᆄࡾն࿐ ࣜ࠶࿐ჽđᆄࡾݳᇜ 310027Ď ᅋ ေğᇏݓᄝસၞᇏ૫ਢoܪpֹ໊ಒ৫აקࡎಃಌാ܋թ֥bЧ໓ิԛਔ၂۱ႄೆસၞૂࢺߌࢫ֥ٳمસၞഅקࡎଆؓՎࣉྛࢳđఃᇏસၞૂࢺ๙ݖაളӁᆀބཨٮᆀ֥קࡎѰᒮ࿊ᄴః০ቋն߄֥ઙછࡎ۬đᆟکᆟҦ/ದЌ๙ݖ႕ཙસၞૂࢺ൧ӆࢲܒطࡗࢤ႕ཙસၞഅקࡎbݓࡅᇏྏᇶၬ֥oܪp൧ӆࢲܒ༯đસၞഅקࡎ֥ࢲݔ҂൳֞ݓࡅ/ᆟکᆟҦቔႨႿસၞૂࢺ൧ӆࢲܒӱ؇֥႕ཙđ۷၇ঠႿԛ१ݓ/ࣉ१ݓ֥ັܴ൧ӆࢲܒሑঃb০Ⴈׅ֥ႇૅૣસၞoචܪpσ২đЧ໓๙ݖࡎ۬э֥ཌྷؓྟaሇࡑ༢ඔބGrangerၹݔဒᇕٚمটקਈٳ༅ႇૅૣקࡎѰᒮ֥ࢲݔđ࠹ਈࢲݔაٳمٳ༅֥קࡎࢲݔປಆژކđᆃູЧ໓֥৫ંิ܂ਔ২ᆣބᆦӻb ܱՍğoܪp൧ӆࢲܒĠસၞૂࢺĠસၞഅקࡎĠૣસၞ ၂a ႄ οᅶݓࡅᇏྏᇶၬԛ१ݓ ࣉ१ݓ֥ؽٳمٳ༅ٓൔđၛݓࡅູٳ༅ֆჭ֥ۚࠢᇏ؇oܪp൧ӆࢲܒࡼջট҂ಒק֥קࡎࢲݔđࣜ࠶ሿࣁᄝܪࡗ֥ٳ۩ሑঃॖି൞҂ޙ֥bᆃ၂ٳ༅ٓൔࠣఃყҩࢲݔაັܴࣜ࠶ંࠣགྷൌनթᄝૼཁ֥ҵएbᄝંҪ૫đݓࡅᇏྏᇶၬ֥ٳ༅ٓൔ൞ૼཁಌكັܴࠎԤ֥đܪקࡎಃ֥ൌགྷླေႵི֥Ӂਈ॥ᇅି৯đݓࡅሹਈഈ֥ܪࢲܒॖିဃۂਔݓљଽ҆Ӂြ֥ັܴ൧ӆࢲܒđᆞ൞ުᆀᇶေ႕ཙ֞Ӂ֥ݓ࠽൧ӆקࡎࢲݔbݓࡅ ᆟکቔູ႕ཙӁြ൧ӆࢲܒ֥ቋնྛᆟֆჭđఃસၞ ӁြᆟҦᆰࢤ႕ཙ֞ఃᇶಃֹࢸཌଽ֥ັܴ൧ӆࢲܒބఒြ֥ളӁӮЧđࣉطࡗࢤ႕ཙ֞સၞഅקࡎb൞Ԣᆟکᆭຓđߎթᄝॴݓ܄ඳބ۲ᇕྙൔ֥Ⴎ܄ඳaݓࡅ֩ᇶุቆӮ֥ݓ࠽৳ૐčࠇवหغĎđѩ๙ݖᇕᇕ൭؍ྙӮ؎ࠇoದЌp ථหধఅ
ᇏၲЧđQQ
đᆃဢ႕ཙ֞ັܴ൧ӆࢲܒބસၞഅקࡎbཁಖđᆟکۄყᆺ൞႕ཙસၞഅקࡎ֥၂ᇕຓളэਈđၛݓࡅູٳ༅ֆჭ֥ٳ༅ٓൔ࠻مิ܂ൡ֥֒ັܴࠎԤđ္مݤۂ۲ᇕ۲ဢ֥oದЌpđၛູસၞഅקࡎٳ༅ิ܂၂۱ॖྛ֥ٳ༅ॿࡏb ᄝགྷൌҪ૫đݓࡅၩၬഈo֥ܪp္ֹ໊ၛູસၞഅקࡎ໙ีิ܂Ⴕི֥ࢳbෛሢᇏݓࣜ࠶֥ؿᅚđᇏݓླބᇏݓ܂۳ၹؓൗࢸࣜ࠶֥႕ཙᄀটᄀնđᇏݓᄝᄀটᄀ ∗ቔᆀࡥࢺğᄶളđଳđ1975୍ളđ༆ᬨದđᆄࡾ॓࿐ჽࣜ࠶ܵ࿐ჽࢃഽđᆄࡾն࿐ࣜ࠶࿐ჽѰൖളb৳༢ֹᆶğݳᇜ൧ބਫ਼318ݼᆄࡾ॓࿐ჽࣜܵ࿐ჽč310023Ďđ߅ğč0571Ď85070603đE-mailğszsszs7514@. - 0 -
؟֥સၞഅഈऎႵਔࢠૼཁ֥oܪpֹ໊đѩໃջটԮં෮ყ௹֥ܪ൧ӆ৯ਈđّطԛགྷਔoܪpֹ໊ބקࡎಃಌാ܋թ֥bၛሧჷྟഅસၞູ২đ ୍ᇏݓํঀെࣉ१ਈղ ၡؕđ၇թ؇ӑݖ đ൞ൗࢸֻ၂ํঀെࣉ१նݓđ୍ӑݖರЧӮູൗࢸֻؽնെႲࣉ१ݓđ၇թ؇ղ֞ bݓ࠽൧ӆഈെႲaํঀെ֩അࡎ۬ӻ࿃նږѯđํঀെᄝ ୍ބ ୍ٳљഈᅨ ބ ֥ࠎԤഈđ ୍Ⴛഈᅨ đݓ࠽െႲࡎ۬၂؇ ૅჭbّᆭđᇏݓᇶ֝܂۳֥ሧჷྟഅ္ၛ౼֤קࡎಃႪ൝ѩሇ߄ູસၞ০֤bᇏݓࢊฒӁਈᅝൗࢸ đԛ१ᅝൗࢸ൧ӆસၞਈ֥ đᇏݓ༎Ӂਈބԛ१ਈӉ௹ᅝऌൗࢸֻ၂໊֥ᇂđՖ1990୍֞2005୍đᇏݓ༎ԛ१ਈᄹӉ࣍10Пđࡎ۬ಏ༯ࢆਔ36%đࢊฒࡎ္۬Ӊ௹նږѯbޓૼཁđᇏݓᄝ܂۳ބླਆ۱Ҫ૫ഈ֥ܪֹ໊҂ऎႵཌྷႋ֥ܪקࡎି৯b Ч໓ؓՎ֥ࢳ൞đݓࡅᇏྏᇶၬ֥ԛ१ݓ ࣉ१ݓٳ༅ٓൔ֥༂֝ྟჷႿؓ൧ӆັܴࢲܒ֥ޭ൪đೂݔᄝളӁᆀބཨٮᆀᆭຓࡆೆસၞૂࢺđྙӮളӁᆀ સၞૂࢺ ཨٮᆀ֥ٳمٳ༅ॿࡏđࡼݓࡅ ᆟک֥સၞ ӁြᆟҦ൪ູ႕ཙસၞૂࢺ൧ӆࢲܒ֥ຓളэਈđᄵԮંၛࢳ֥સၞഅקࡎ໙ีࣼॖ႒ಫطࢳđܪקࡎି৯၇ঠႿસၞૂࢺ൧ӆࢲܒđط٤ളӁᆀ ཨٮᆀ൧ӆࢲܒbᆃ൞ၹູğ၂đັܴ൧ӆࢌၞᇏ֥קࡎсྶડቀሱࠗৣေđط҂ି൞఼௧સၞđၹطᆟکᆟҦ ದЌ֥ቔႨׄ࠻҂൞ളӁᆀ္҂൞ཨٮᆀđطᄝႿ๙ളӁބཨٮ֥ᇏࡗߌࢫđЧ໓ӫఃູસၞૂࢺĠؽđԮࣜ࠶ંᇶေ఼טਔളӁᆀބཨٮᆀ֥ࣩᆚྟनޙđطໃॉ੮֞સၞഅקࡎ෮ླॉ੮֥൧ӆັܴࢲܒሑঃđൌ࠽ഈຐغঘථൔ֥அછᆀᄝགྷൌᇏ൞҂թᄝ֥đસၞࠃߎླࣜႮଖᇕྙൔ֥ᇏࢺҌି֤ၛປӮđ၌ݭ֥൞đસၞᇏࢺᄝԮࣜ࠶ંᇏѩ၂༜ᆭֹč4DISöEFSđ5SBCPME BOE 5SʴCTXFUUFSđ ĎĠđགྷൌᇏ֥նਈસၞࠃ൞๙ݖસၞᇏࢺ֤ၛൌགྷč֥Winklerđ1989Ďđॴݓ܄ඳaवหغࠇᆟک؎֩ሑঃ༯֥ᆰࢤસၞൌ࠽ഈ൞ࣜႮ၂۱Ⴎః॥ᇅ֥ྴસၞᇏࢺটࠆ֤۷նٺح֥ࣜ࠶ሿࣁb Ԯഈؓᇏࢺ֥࣮؟Ⴟࣁವᇏࢺંၛࠣႏཧ౻֡ંđWinklerč1989Ďࠧಪູđᄝࣁವ൧ӆᆭຓ֥ః൧ӆᇏđࣜࡀದaႛࣁսࠇਬ൲അ֩൧ӆᇏࢺᄝࣜ࠶ࠃᇏ൞௴ђթᄝ֥đၹطࡹ৫၂۱၂Ϯ֥ᇏࢺં൞ॖྛ֥bSpulberč1996Ď֥࣮ࡼ൧ӆᇏࢺӵք֥ᆯିٳູඹোğקࡎބԛౢ൧ӆaิ܂ੀྟބࠧൈྟaླྀטઙᆀބછᆀᆭࡗ֥ࢌၞaิ܂ᇉਈЌᆣѩࡓҩ੫ჿሑঃb)BDLFUU
ࡼ൧ӆᇏࢺٳູਆᇕোğ၂൞ູઙછචٚڛༀѩሉ౼ႛࣁ֥ކᇏࢺ DPOUSBDU JOUFSNFEJBUJPO
đѩ҂ႚႵഅ֥෮ႵಃĠؽ൞ᄝ၂קൈࡗଽႚႵഅѩӵքཌྷܱࢌၞڄགđၛࠆ౼ઙછࡎҵູଢѓ֥સၞᇏࢺčUSBEF JOUFSNFEJBUJPOĎbູљఏđЧ໓ࡼႵྙસၞᇏࢺაྴસၞᇏࢺӫູસၞૂࢺčUSBEF NFEJBĎ
ѩࡼఃᇂೆЧ໓ิԛ֥ٳمٳ༅ॿࡏᆭᇏࣉྛ࣮b Ч໓ေ߭ճ֥໙ี൞ğᄝݓࡅᇏྏᇶၬ֥ܪ൧ӆࢲܒ༯đસၞഅקࡎೂޅൌགྷđᆟکᆟҦ ದЌೂޅ႕ཙસၞഅקࡎĤູՎđЧ໓ࡼ൮༵ิԛ၂۱ࠎЧ֥ٳمٳ༅ॿࡏđࡼસၞഅקࡎѰᒮٳࢳູളӁᆀ સၞૂࢺބસၞૂࢺ ཨٮᆀਆ۱ߌࢫđѩٳ༅҂൧ӆࢲܒቆކؓસၞഅקࡎ֥႕ཙĠֻ҆ٳູႇૅૣસၞσ২aඔऌၛࠣקࡎಃ֥࠹ਈٚمĠֻඹ҆ٳؓૣקࡎࣉྛקਈٳ༅Ġֻ҆ٳᄎႨЧ໓ิԛ֥ٳ༅ॿࡏࢳႇૅૣקࡎѰᒮ֥ൌᆣٳ༅ࢲݔĠቋު൞ࢲંྟඍb ؽa ٳ༅ॿࡏ ᄝളӁᆀ-સၞૂࢺ-ཨٮᆀ֥ٳمٳ༅ॿࡏᇏđ০ႨݓࡅಃຯࣇࠣႿఃֹшࢸ֥หᆘđԛ१ݓބࣉ१ݓֹഈ֥ݓࡅၩၬФ߄ਔđݓࡅ/ᆟکۄყᆺ൞՜Ӯસၞૂࢺ൧ӆ۬अэ߄֥၂ᇕຓളэਈđದЌӮູݓࡅшࢸᆭຓ႕ཙસၞഅקࡎ֥ਸ਼၂ᇕᇶေ႕ཙ - 1 -
ၹbః՜ࣉൌགྷસၞ০֤֥ࠏ൞ğ൮༵๙ݖસၞ/ӁြᆟҦၛ႕ཙસၞૂࢺ֥൧ӆࢲܒđطު႕ཙקࡎđᄜႮקࡎथקસၞ০֤֥ٳ۬अbൈđႮႿસၞૂࢺ֥ႄೆđસၞഅקࡎࣼॖٳࢳູളӁᆀ-સၞૂࢺބસၞૂࢺ-ཨٮᆀਆ۱ߌࢫđᄝૄ၂ߌࢫഈđસၞૂࢺ൞๙ݖઙછࡎҵčbid-ask spreadĎটൌགྷ൬ၭቋն߄֥৫۱ุbᄝՎࠎԤഈđࣼࡼᆟکᆟҦބದЌᇂೆ၂۱၂֥aႵັܴࠎԤ֥સၞקࡎٳ༅ॿࡏᆭᇏđؽᆀ֥ࢲކđ۷֤ളӁᆀ-સၞૂࢺ-ཨٮᆀ֥קࡎӮູ၂۱؟ٚҕაѰᒮ֥ᆟᇍࣜ࠶ݖӱb æᄝၛഈ۱ᇶุᆭຓđસၞഅקࡎ֥ൌགྷߎ၇ঠႿ؟ᇕၹ֥܋ቔႨbPorterč1980Ďᄝఃิԛ֥ྛြࢲܒٳ༅৯ଆᇏၘॉ੮֞మᄝࣉೆᆀaูսളӁᆀ֩ၹؓັܴఒြ֥Ӂקࡎބࣩᆚି৯֥႕ཙbBaumolaPanzar and Willigč1982Ďิԛ֥ॖࣩᆚྟ൧ӆં۷఼טਔమᄝࣩᆚᆀؓᄝ໊ӌഅקࡎ֥႕ཙbЧ໓ࢹᆃ၂ٳ༅නਫ਼đϜమᄝྍࣉೆᆀࣩᆚaูսࣩᆚaྍཨٮᆀࣩᆚaཨٮ֥ሇ၍ބሇэၹބྍૂࢺࣩᆚၹႄೆસၞഅקࡎ֥ٳمٳ༅ॿࡏᇏđࣼྙӮ၂۱ປᆜ֥ٳ༅સၞഅקࡎ֥ંଆč1Ďb ྍࣉೆᆀࣩᆚ ྍૂࢺࣩᆚ ྍཨٮᆀࣩᆚ ԛ१ݓ ࣉ१ݓ ളӁᆀ સၞૂࢺཨٮᆀ ูսࣩᆚ ཨٮ֥ሇ၍ބሇэ 1. સၞഅקࡎ֥ٳ༅ॿࡏ č1ĎളӁᆀ-સၞૂࢺߌࢫקࡎ ളӁᆀ-સၞૂࢺߌࢫקࡎ౼थႿ۱ၹğགྷႵളӁᆀaགྷႵસၞૂࢺaమᄝྍࣉೆᆀaูսളӁᆀၛࠣྍસၞૂࢺbളӁᆀ-સၞૂࢺ֥קࡎሑঃ൮༵౼थႿགྷྛ൧ӆഈ֥܂čളӁᆀĎླčસၞૂࢺĎሑঃࠣః൧ӆࢲܒbളӁᆀ֥ປಆࣩᆚބસၞૂࢺ֥؎߶ྙӮસၞഅ֥؎֮ࡎđᆃ၂֮ࡎၝᇅਔྍളӁᆀ֥ࣉೆބูս֥ളӁބႨđൈđۚ০Տࠗસၞૂࢺٚ૫֥మᄝࣉೆᆀࣉೆbᆃ၂קࡎሑঃ֥ڿэ౼थႿྍસၞૂࢺࣉೆ൧ӆ֥؇ބܿଆđطྍસၞૂࢺॖିটჷႿളӁᆀ֥৳ކࠇؓჰႵસၞૂࢺ؎֥Ԣđభᆀ౼थႿఃӁਈ॥ᇅି৯ࠣఃؓקࡎ֥႕ཙđުᆀᄵႮླ֥ࣩٚᆚิۚસၞഅקࡎđસၞçૂࢺ؎֥Ԣ࠻ॖି൞ၹູᆟکۄყđ္ॖି൞ྍસၞૂࢺࣉೆ൧ӆb ֻؽᇕ౦ঃ൞ളӁᆀ֥؎ބસၞૂࢺ֥ປಆࣩᆚđՎൈ߶ྙӮસၞഅ֥؎ۚࡎđᆃ၂ۚࡎၝᇅਔྍસၞૂࢺࣉೆ൧ӆ֥ॖିྟđൈՏࠗਔྍളӁᆀࣉೆ൧ӆၛูࠣսളӁ֥ঔնbᆃ၂קࡎሑঃ֥ڿэࡼ౼थႿྍളӁᆀࣉೆ൧ӆࠇტྍളӁᆀ֥ၞӱ؇đၛูࠣսࠆ֤֥ሑঃb ֻᇕ౦ঃ൞ᄝളӁᆀބસၞૂࢺഈԛགྷචܪѰᒮ֥౦ྙđՎൈ֥קࡎࢲݔ൞҂ಒק֥bളӁᆀ൳֞ࠗৣಀ୭৯ࠆ֤ࠇტྍસၞૂࢺđࠇᆀ๙ݖ႕ཙᆟکᆟҦটԢસၞૂࢺ֥؎đطགྷႵ֥સၞૂࢺᄵ൳֞ࠗৣಀ࿙ᅳࠇტྍളӁᆀaูսളӁᆀbቋᇔקࡎሑঃ֥э߄౼थႿၛഈਆᇕ୭৯֥ൌགྷӱ؇b֒ਆᇕ୭৯नၛᄝ؋௹ଽሽིൈđ၂ᇕॖି֥໗ק০֥ᅞ൞ളӁᆀބસၞૂࢺ֥৳ކࠇሺཟ၂ุ߄đࢹၛٳཚ໗ק֥০bೂݔളӁᆀ॥ᇅӁਈഈթᄝࠇӦӮЧࢠնđᄝᆃ၂קࡎߌࢫᇏđસၞૂࢺॖିཌྷؓളӁᆀطऎႵ၂קႪ൝đקࡎࢲݔ္ࡼّ႘ᆃᇕႪ൝b - 2 -
č2Ďસၞૂࢺ-ཨٮᆀߌࢫקࡎ સၞૂࢺ-ཨٮᆀߌࢫקࡎ္౼थႿ۱ၹğགྷႵཨٮᆀaమᄝྍཨٮᆀaགྷႵཨٮᆀ֥ሇ၍ބሇэaགྷႵસၞૂࢺၛࠣమᄝ֥ྍસၞૂࢺbགྷႵસၞૂࢺ֥؎ބཨٮᆀ֥ປಆࣩᆚ߶ྙӮ؎ۚࡎđᆃ၂؎ۚࡎ֥ሱಖࢲݔ൞႕ཙ֞གྷႵཨٮᆀಕุ֥໗קđ҆ٳཨٮᆀॖି߶ሇཟཨٮูսࠇ๔ᆸཨٮđൈၝᇅਔྍཨٮᆀ֥ࣉೆđཨٮᆀඔਈ֥༯ࢆ߶؎ᆀಃޙࡎ۬ა০ؽᆀ֥႕ཙbൈđۚࡎ۬Տࠗཨٮᆀ୭৯Ԣસၞૂࢺ֥؎đ္ܝৣమᄝ֥ྍસၞૂࢺࡆೆࣩᆚbસၞૂࢺ൧ӆࢲܒڿэ֥ჷಅЇওğ၂đ๙ݖᆟᇍݖӱԢ࠻Ⴕસၞૂࢺ؎Ġؽđཨٮᆀ৳ކၛྍસၞૂࢺྙӮࠇࣉೆ൧ӆb ֻؽᇕ౦ঃđགྷႵસၞૂࢺ֥ປಆࣩᆚބཨٮᆀ֥؎߶ྙӮ؎֮ࡎđᆃ၂֮ࡎ֥۬сಖࢲݔ൞ܝৣྍཨٮᆀࣉೆđঔնཨٮᆀܿଆđᆃࣼؓགྷႵ֥؎ᆀܒӮൌᄝ֥ຯཽĠਸ਼၂ٚ૫đ֮ࡎ۬ෙಖၝᇅਔమᄝ֥સၞૂࢺࣉೆ൧ӆ֥ॖିྟđགྷႵ֥સၞૂࢺ߶୭৯࿙ᅳaტྍ֥ཨٮᆀಕุđᆃ၂ტݖӱ္ॖି൞๙ݖᆟᇍࣜ࠶ݖӱটൌགྷ֥bקࡎሑঃ֥э߄౼थႿྍཨٮᆀಕุࣉೆ൧ӆ֥؇ބܿଆb ֻᇕ౦ঃ൞චш؎đՎൈ֥קࡎಯಖ൞҂ಒק֥bࡎ֥۬э߄ሑঃࡼ౼थႿસၞૂࢺ࿙ᅳaტྍཨٮᆀಕุ֥؇đၛࠣགྷႵཨٮᆀक़ڛસၞૂࢺ؎aྍૂࢺॖࣉೆ൧ӆࣩᆚ֥؇֥Ѱᒮbაభ૫ؓളӁᆀ-સၞૂࢺקࡎ֥ٳ༅োරđᄝਆᇕ୭৯न؋௹ၛሽིൈđ໗ק০aࡨཬڄག֥ॗຬ߶චٚҐ౼ଖᇕ৳ކࠇ၂ุ߄֥ᅞbೂॉ੮֞સၞૂࢺބཨٮᆀᄝླčӁਈĎ॥ᇅaӦӮЧೆ֩ၹđસၞૂࢺބཨٮᆀᄝᆃဢ֥චш؎Ѱᒮᇏđקࡎֹ໊ॖି൞҂֥ؓ֩b č3Ďनޙקࡎࢲݔ સၞഅקࡎ֥ቋᇔࢲݔࣼ౼थႿၛഈਆ۱ٳࢳ֥קࡎߌࢫbοᅶSpulberč1996Ďิԛ֥ઙછࡎҵࠣ܂ླଆč2Ďđླ౷ཌD(p)սіഺჅླđ܂۳౷ཌS(w)սіളӁᆀᄝ҂ေࡎ۬w༯֥ഺჅ܂۳đસၞૂࢺ๙ݖაളӁᆀࠣཨٮᆀ֥קࡎѰᒮ࿊ᄴః০∗∗∗∗∗èቋն߄֥ઙೆࡎ۬wބછԛࡎ۬pđቋն߄০ູ(p- w)QđՎൈԛౢ൧ӆđԛౢඔਈwཁಖ֮ႿຐغঘථनޙӁԛQbઙછࡎ۬၇ঠႿളӁᆀ-સၞૂࢺބસၞૂࢺ-ཨٮᆀਆ۱ߌࢫ֥קࡎѰᒮđളӁᆀ-સၞૂࢺߌࢫקࡎѰᒮ֥ࢲݔ൞႕ཙ֞ഺჅ܂۳౷ཌS(w)֥ྟሑđસၞૂࢺ-ཨٮᆀߌࢫקࡎѰᒮ֥ࢲݔ൞႕ཙഺჅླ౷ཌD(p)֥ྟሑđၹطᄝ҂֥൧ӆࢲܒቆކ༯đၛഈસၞᇏࢺଆᇏ֥܂ླ౷ཌ߶ؿളሇ߄đᄝՎࠎԤഈࣼྙӮअ҆नޙ֥ઙછࡎҵbᆃဢ֥၂۱ٳࢳקࡎ֥ଆࣼॖၛູસၞഅקࡎิ܂Ⴕ৯֥ࢳbླေ఼ט֥൞đളӁᆀࠇཨٮᆀԷࡹྍસၞૂࢺ֥ॖିྟ߶ڿэᄝ໊સၞૂࢺ෮૫֥ؓ܂ླ౷ཌྙሑđࡨഒᄝ໊સၞૂࢺ֥൧ӆ൝৯čFingletonđ1997Ďbྍસၞૂࢺࣉೆ֥ॖିྟ߶ྙӮ၂۱ࣩᆚࢸčcompetitive fringeĎđཋᇅਔᄝ໊સၞૂࢺ෮ିࠆ֤֥௹ຬ০ᆴb p, w S (w) p wp w % Q
w QQ2 - 3 -
2. ઙછࡎҵࠣ܂ླଆ ᄝᆃ၂ଆᇏđݓࡅ/ᆟک֥સၞࠇӁြᆟҦФ൪ູቔႨႿસၞૂࢺ൧ӆࢲܒഈ֥ຓളэਈđఃቔႨ࠻ॖၛ๙ݖᆟکದູԷᄯ/Ԣસၞૂࢺ؎đ္ॖၛ๙ݖඔਈ॥ᇅ/ࡎ۬॥ᇅট఼߄/߄གྷႵસၞૂࢺ֥൧ӆ৯ਈ֤ၛൌགྷbႭః൞đܱඥ֩ࡎ۬॥ᇅᆟҦЧദࠧ൞ܒࡹਔ၂۱ྴ֥સၞૂࢺđఃઙછࡎҵࣼ൞ܱඥੱĠطඔਈ॥ᇅؓસၞૂࢺ֥႕ཙᄵ၇ఃൌགྷٚൔ҂طႵ෮ҵၳđఃᇏஅછٚൔ֥ࢲݔোරႿܱඥbԢԮ֥સၞ/ӁြᆟҦᆭຓđݓࡅ؎સၞࠇఃཌྷܱ֥ᆟᇍࣜ࠶ᆟҦؓસၞૂࢺ֥൧ӆࢲܒթᄝູࠞૼཁ֥႕ཙđѩቋᇔ႕ཙ֞સၞഅקࡎ֥नޙࢲݔb ၹطđᄝݓࡅᇏྏᇶၬ֥oܪp൧ӆࢲܒ༯đસၞഅקࡎ֥ࢲݔ၇ঠႿԛ१ݓ/ࣉ१ݓଽ֥ັܴ൧ӆࢲܒሑঃđൈߎ൳֞ݓࡅ/ᆟکᆟҦቔႨႿસၞૂࢺ൧ӆࢲܒӱ؇֥႕ཙbႭః൞đັܴഈ֥ປಆࣩᆚ൧ӆࢲܒࠣఃᄝӁਈ/ཨٮਈ॥ᇅഈ֥߶ྙӮקࡎഈ֥ૼཁਜ൝đᄝളӁᆀބཨٮᆀචٚनऎႵࢠປಆ֥ࣩᆚྟ൧ӆࢲܒ֥౦ྙ༯đݓࡅᆭࡗ֥קࡎѰᒮࣼ౼थႿ۲֥ٚᆟᇍࣜ࠶ᆟҦؓસၞૂࢺ൧ӆࢲܒ֥႕ཙb a σ২aඔऌაٚم č1Ďσ২ ૣᄝ۽ြ۪ଁࠣෛު֥ޓӉൈ௹ଽđؓᆜ۱ൗࢸࣜ࠶ؿᅚऎႵᇗေ႕ཙđޓӉൈ௹ଽമᇀФӫູoૣčKing CottonĎpb۷ᇗေ֥൞đࣴൗࡀႇૅૣસၞσ২ऎႵ٤ӈԛ֥oචܪp൧ӆࢲܒğႇݓቔູ༵ࣉ۽ြݓđӉ௹൞ቋն֥ૣࣉ१ݓđ൞ૅݓૣቋն֥ԛ१൧ӆđૅݓቔູᄪ௹֥୪ြݓބުఏ֥۽ြݓđӉ௹Ќӻൗࢸቋն֥ૣളӁݓބԛ१ݓֹ໊đఃཟႇݓ֥ૣԛ१ᅝႇݓૣࣉ१֥ቋնбᇗđѩჹჹਵ༵Ⴟఃૣԛ१ݓbൈđႇૅᆭࡗ֥ૣસၞϴෛሢචٚӉղ၂۱؟ൗࡀ֥સၞᆟҦaӁြᆟҦѰᒮđၛࠣૣളӁބཨٮ۬अ֥ᇗնэ߄đᆃဢ֥σ২ؓoܪp൧ӆࢲܒ༯֥સၞഅקࡎ໙ี࣮ط൞٤ӈႵսіྟ֥b ႇݓؓૣ֥ླෛሢ۽ြ۪ଁ֥ധೆ҂؎ঔᅦđ֞18ൗࡀଌࣼၘྙӮਔऍն֥ૣ൧ӆbКૅ൞ቋᄪཟႇݓิ܂ૣֹ֥đႇݓ֥۽ӌႨૣቋԚᇶေটሱѯථa࣍תބֹᇏݚֹbჿ1780୍༆ႆ؇Ӯູႇݓૣ֥܂۳টჷđ1781୍Ϙ༆္षཟႇݓԛ१ૣbऍն֥ૣླૅݓଲ֥҆୪ӆᇶषՖҤ֩ఃቔնਈሇཟૣᇕᆱđൈđෛሢૅݓ༆҆फ़ᆲ֥ຉᅚđૅݓ֥ૣളӁঔնb֞1820୍đႇݓ֥ૣࣉ१ᇏૅݓૣၘᅝֻ၂໊đϘ༆ंֻؽ໊đఃՑ൞عఃބήࠣđૅݓૣᅝႇݓࣉ१ٺح֥%čޅඨݔđ1995ĎbՎުđෙಖᄝႇݓ֥ૣࣉ१ᇏđটሱఃݓࡅ֥ࣉ१ૣඔਈӈႵэđૅݓૣ၂ᆰᄝႇݓ൧ӆഈᅝऌधؓႪ൝ֹ໊b і1. ࣴൗࡀႇૅૣસၞ֥oචཟܪp൧ӆࢲܒč%Ď ૅݓᅝൗࢸૣૅݓԛ१ᅝఃӁႇݓࣉ१ૅૣᅝૅૣԛ१֞ႇݓԛ१бᇗ[1] ਈбᇗ[2] ఃࣉ१бᇗ[3] бᇗ[4] 1800 . 28 1810 . . ď1820 79. . 1840 . ďď1860 79 - 4 -
1880 1890 . ďďď1900 . 5 ඔऌটჷğ [1][2]ਆਙჷႿHammondč1897Ďđp366-368Ġ[3] [4]ჷႿ[ႇ]్غč1998Ďđѩࣜгᆀ࠹ෘb ďďďᇿğήࠣაϘ༆ ୍ඔऌđಌႆ؇ ୍భૣԛ१ඔऌĠႆ؇ ୍ඔऌĠďďďඔऌჷႿHansonč1979Ďb ႇૅૣસၞ֥oචܪp൧ӆࢲܒᄝᆜ۱ࣴൗࡀູࠞૼཁčі1ĎbՖૣસၞ֥ᇶေ܂۳ᆀiiૅݓ֥ԛ१টुđૅݓࡼః෮Ӂૣ֥ն҆ٳႨႿԛ१đᄝᆜ۱ࣴൗࡀԛ१ᅝӁਈбᇗ໗קЌӻᄝ60%ၛഈĠൈđૅݓቔູൗࢸഈቋն֥Ӂૣݓđఃૣԛ१ᅝᆜ۱ൗࢸૣԛ१֥бᇗ္ჹჹਵ༵Ⴟఃૣԛ१ݓĠෙಖૅૣᄪᄝࣴൗࡀԚࠧၘൌགྷਔԛ१൧ӆ֥؟ჭ߄đཟႇݓԛ१֥бᇗᇯࡶ༯ࢆđؓႇݓ൧ӆ֥၇ঠ၂ᆰ٤ӈૼཁbՖૣસၞ֥ླᆀiiႇݓটुđ1820୍ႇݓࣉ१ૅૣᅝఃૣࣉ१֥%đ1880୍ູ%đૅݓ၂ᆰ൞ఃቋᇶေ֥ૣࣉ१টჷđ࠻൞ႮႿૅݓଽᅞ֤ૅૣ܂۳ඔਈ֥ಖකࡨđࡎ۬ऍږശđѩᄝႇݓބᇝնྙӮ႕ཙऍն֥oૣࠕߙč$PUUPO 'BNJOFĎpđෛሢૅݓଽᅞ֥ࢲඏđႇݓሱૅݓ֥ࣉ१߫گđ1870୍ᇗႻᅝ֞%֥ٺحđ֞1880୍߫گ֞%đࠎЧഈႻղ֞ૅݓଽᅞభ֥ඣĠႇݓ֥ૣཨٮਈჹӑݖఃݓࡅđ1890୍భമᇀჹӑݖᇝնᆜุ֥ૣཨٮਈĠႇݓ၂ᆰଔൌགྷૣࣉ१֥؟ჭ߄đѩ๙ݖᆲֹᆟҦն৯ࣉૣᇕᆱބԛ१đؓૅݓૣ֥၇ঠႻ൞ቋ఼֥b č2Ďඔऌ Ч໓০ႨHammondč1897Ďิ܂֥1797-1896୍֥ႇݓ০௵ૣࣉ१ࡎ۬ඔऌބૅݓ୧ჿૣԛ१ࡎ۬ඔऌটቔູႇݓބૅݓ֥ૣࡎ۬ඔऌู֥սđѩႨMitchellč1998Ďิ܂֥ႇૅਆݓؿࡎ۬ᆷඔč1880୍=100Ďؓఃࣉྛཨᅮԩđაૣસၞཌྷܱ֥ᄎٮੱඔऌᄵ࿊౼č1958Ďิ܂֥ն༆လݚᄎٮੱᆷඔč1830୍=100Ďቔูູսbູ࣐ਈࡨഒඔऌ֥ѯđѩุགྷэਈᄹӉੱᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢đૌؓၛഈඔऌࣉྛਔؓඔ߄ԩč3Ďb ᄎٮੱᆷඔč ୍ Ď ০௵ࡎ۬čьൖĎ ୧ჿૣࡎ۬čૅٳĎ 3. ႇݓ০௵აૅݓ୧ჿ֥ૣࡎ۬ࠣᄎٮੱᆷඔğ1797-1896 č3Ďٚم ԮႨটٳ༅સၞקࡎ֥ᇶေٚم൞࣪સၞ่ࡱٳ༅đ൞๙ݖࣉԛ१ࡎ۬ᆷඔ֥бᆴটّ႘સၞࡎ֥۬э߄đෙಖ๙ݖႄೆഅসളӁੱᆷඔॖϜඌࣉ҄ॉ੮ࣉটđၛ۷ݺֹّ႘સၞקࡎ֥э߄bᆃ၂ٚم҂ିሙಒֹّ႘ܪ൧ӆࢲܒ༯۲ݓᆟᇍࣜ࠶ᆟҦؓקࡎ႕ཙ֥ၹݔܱ༢đၛקਈॉҳ۲ٚᄝקࡎѰᒮᇏ֥קࡎಃնཬđൈႮႿඔऌ֥अཋđمࠆ֤સၞૂࢺ֥ࡎ۬ඔऌđၹطॖ๙ݖၛ༯ᇕٚمটࡗࢤ࠹ਈસၞഅ֥קࡎѰᒮࢲݔğ ၂൞Grangerၹݔܱ༢ဒٚمbᆃ൞๙ݖࡼႇݓčࠇૅݓĎૣࡎ֥۬ᇌުᆴࡆೆ - 5 -
ଆᇏđुః൞ڎॖ֝ᇁૅݓčࠇႇݓĎૣקࡎଆ֥ࢳӱ؇ิۚđೂݔ൞đᄵӫႇݓčࠇૅݓĎૣࡎ۬൞ૅݓčࠇႇݓĎૣࡎ۬э֥GrangerჰၹđؽᆀᆭࡗऎႵGrangerၹݔܱ༢b éؽ൞ࡎ۬э֥ॴ௹ཌྷؓྟbၛcіൕt௹ܪjؓܪi(i,j=1,2)֥ࡎ۬ྟđၛij,tδіൕཌྷؓྟđδ=c/c (t,t'=0,-1t≥t')b֒௹ࡎ۬э֥ཌྷؓྟູᆞࣇіૼ؋௹ଽ܂ij,tij,t'ླࡎ۬ᆭࡗթᄝᆞཌྷܱྟđקࡎି৯ഉླఃٚمটࣉ၂҄؎bᇗေ֥൞đ๙ݖࡎ۬э֥ॴ௹ཌྷؓྟđॖၛ؇ਈસၞקࡎᇏႮႿඌ؎aሱಖ؎aളӁൈᇌၛࠣݓࡅસၞ؎֩ၹႄఏ֥ളӁࠇཨٮ൧ӆ֥ॖگᇅྟ෮ྙӮ֥oࣩᆚࢸpؓસၞഅקࡎ֥႕ཙbೂݔॴ௹ཌྷؓྟູڵđᄵඪૼקࡎѰᒮࢲݔ҂০ႿളӁᆀđჰၹᄝႿളӁᆀࡎ֥۬ᄹࡆّط֝ᇁཨٮᆀࡎ֥۬༯ࢆđસၞ০֤ཟཨٮᆀሇ၍đఃࠏॖିᄝႿઙٚ๙ݖႄೆྍࣩᆚᆀࠇႨูսّطႵིࢆ֮ਔః෮ࠆ֤֥સၞഅࡎ۬ĠೂݔູᆞđᄵඪૼקࡎѰᒮࢲݔႵ০ႿളӁᆀࠇછٚđჰၹॖିᄝႿඌ؎aሱಖ؎ࠇఃྙൔ֥સၞཋᇅᆟҦb ൞ሇࡑ༢ඔbᄝસၞචٚनऎႵ၂ק൧ӆ৯ਈ֥ࡌഡ༯đૌഡ࠹ႄೆસၞഅࡎê۬ᆭຓ֥эਈiiݚᄎٮੱđটॉҳ֒௹ࡎ۬թᄝᆞཌྷܱྟൈસၞචٚקࡎି৯఼֥đࠧݚᄎٮੱࡎ۬ᄹࡆ၂ֆ໊֝ᇁᆃ၂ӮЧᄝܪᆭࡗ֥ٳሑঃđၛՎটࡗࢤޙਈࣜ࠶ሿࣁᄝႇૅਆݓࡗ֥ٳሑঃbၛCіൕሇࡑ۳ܪi֥ӮЧᆴđၛβіൕሇࡑ༢ඔđᄵβJK $J $KbiβJK >1ඪૼܪiᄝקࡎѰᒮᇏཌྷؓႿܪjंႿਜ൝đّᆭđᄝβJK <1ൈᄵंႿႪ൝b ඹa ࠹ਈٳ༅ č1ĎOLSଆ ႮႿႇૅᆭࡗૣસၞo֥චܪp൧ӆࢲܒđѩॉ੮֞ყ௹ؓૣࡎ֥۬ᇌު႕ཙđë࿊ᄴᇌު၂௹эਈࣉೆଆđႨLNFRTіൕᄎٮੱᆷඔđLNPLVPіൕႇݓ০௵֥ૣࡎ۬đLNPNYіൕૅݓ୧ჿ֥ૣࡎ۬bᄝAbreu and Fernandesč2006Ďิԛ֥קࡎଆࠎԤഈđႄೆoܪpݓଽ൧ӆࡎ֥۬ᇌު௹эਈđਆݓૣࡎܱ۬༢ॖіඍູၛ༯ਆ۱ଆğ LNPNY=c*LNPNY(−1)+c*LNPLVP+c*LNPLVP(−1)+c*LNFRT+c č Ď 12345LNPLVP=c*LNPNY(−1)+c*LNPNY+c*LNPLVP(−1)+C*LNFRT+c č Ď 12345ఃᇏđLNPLVP(-1)ބLNPNY(-1)ٳљіൕႇݓބૅݓૣࡎ֥۬၂ࢨᇌު֥ؓඔᆴđ༢ඔcacacacіൕࡎ۬ྟbၛഈଆ֥OLS݂߭ࢲݔೂі2෮ൕđѩႨADF1234ဒمဒҗҵཛ൞ڎթᄝֆ໊۴bሹุطđଆ֥ܙ࠹ࢲݔіགྷਅݺđކႪ؇ٳљູބđ҂թᄝ၂ࢨaؽࢨሱཌྷܱބၳٚҵđҗҵཛ္҂թᄝֆ໊۴b ၛܪ1іൕႇݓđܪ2іൕૅݓđଆ݂߭ࢲݔіૼğ൮༵đ֒௹֥ႇૅૣࡎ۬ࡗ֥ཌྷؓྟनູᆞᆴđδᆴٳљູބĠఃՑđႇݓࡎ֥۬၂ࢨᇌުؓૅݓࡎ֥۬႕ཙ൞҂ཁᇷ֥đૅݓࡎ֥۬၂ࢨᇌުაႇݓࡎ۬ᆭࡗ֥ཌྷؓྟູڵᆴđδ=đթᄝࢠ఼֥ڵཌྷܱܱ༢Ġቋުđᄎٮੱაႇݓࡎ۬ᆞཌྷܱđطაૅݓࡎ۬ڵཌྷܱđᄎٮੱഈᅨ1%đջটႇݓࡎ۬ഈᅨ%ބૅݓࡎ۬༯ࢆ%đᄎٮੱэ߄ؓૅݓࡎ֥۬႕ཙཌྷؓ۷նđሇࡑ༢ඔβ=ሸކটुđႇૅᆭࡗ֥ཌྷ၇ঠ٤ӈૼཁđႇݓऎႵૼཁ֥12קࡎಃႪ൝b і2. ႇૅૣקࡎଆ݂߭ࢲݔ ૅݓࡎ۬ႇݓࡎ۬ ႇݓࡎ۬ૅݓࡎ۬ᄎٮੱ ӈඔ ၂ࢨᇌު ၂ࢨᇌު ૅݓࡎ۬ / / - 6 -
ଆč1Ď čĎ čĎ čĎ čĎ2R ADF Durbin-Watson h White ** ႇݓࡎ۬ / ଆč Ď čĎ čĎ čĎčĎ čĎ2R Durbin-Watson h * Q F *ᇿğওݼଽ֥ඔᆴູtᆴđ*ཁᇷྟඣູ5%đ**ཁᇷྟඣູ10%đఃჅູ1%bႇݓࡎ۬၂ࢨᇌުؓૅݓࡎ֥۬႕ཙ҂ཁᇷđၹطᄝଆč ĎᇏஆԢਔᆃ၂эਈb č2ĎGrangerၹݔܱ༢ဒ OLSଆ۳ԛਔཌྷؓྟބሇࡑ༢ඔ֥࠹ਈࢲݔđՖطૌؓႇૅૣקࡎѰᒮ֥ࠎЧࢲݔႵਔԚ҄؎bູ؎ఃၹݔྟđૌҐႨGrangerၹݔဒٚمটቓࣉ၂֥҄؎bႮႿGrangerၹݔဒсྶࠎႿ໗֥ඔऌਙđ෮ၛ൮༵ࣉྛֆ໊۴ဒၛ؎ః໗ྟbЧ໓ҐႨADFဒمࣉྛֆ໊۴ဒđࢲݔؿགྷđૅݓࡎ۬ބႇݓࡎ֥۬ؓඔᆴ൞໗֥*
ൈࡗਙđᄎٮੱᆷඔඔऌ֥၂ࢨҵٳҌ൞໗֥đࠧ൞٤໗֥၂ࢨֆᆜ*
ਙčі Ďb і3. ඔऌ֥໗ྟဒࢲݔ эਈ ဒྙൔ ADF࠹ਈ 1%֥ચࣁ୪ਢࢸᆴ ࢲં ȐLNFRT čN,N,1Ď ໗ ďLNPLVP čC,T,1Ď ໗ LNPNY čC,N,1Ď ໗ ᇿğဒྙൔčC,T,KĎٳљіൕֆ໊۴ဒٚӱ֥ӈඔཛaൈࡗ൝ཛބᇌުࢨඔ
ďᇌުࢨඔ֥࿊ᄴၛဒൔ֥ෛࠏ༂ҵཛ҂թᄝሱཌྷູܱѓሙbջݼ֥іൕ ֥ᇂྐඣ༯֥ਢࢸᆴbȐіൕ၂ࢨҵٳb ఃՑđ۴ऌჿඏčunrestrictedĎඣVARଆটಒקቋႪᇌު௹b۴ऌ"*$ބ4$ቋཬ֥ሙᄵট࿊ᄴቋႪᇌު௹đႮႿؽᆀቋཬൈؓႋ֥ᇌު௹ٳљູ ބ đطؓඔරಖܙ࠹ᆴᄝQ ൈቋնđॖ࿊౼ቋႪᇌު௹ູ čі ĎbؓVARଆ֥໗קྟဒ္ᆣૼđીႵ۴ᄝֆ໊ჵᆭຓđVARଆડቀ໗קྟေb і ಒק7"3ଆᇌު௹֥۲࠹ਈᆴ ࠹ਈ 7"3
7"3
"*$࠹ਈ 4$࠹ਈ -3࠹ਈ ᄎٮੱඔऌ౼၂ࢨҵٳđѩഡקቋႪᇌު௹ູp=4đ০Ⴈ؟эਈଆ༯֥Grangerၹݔܱ༢ဒটဒᆣૣקࡎ֥Grangerၹݔܱ༢đࢲݔೂі5෮ൕb(SBOHFSၹݔဒࢲݔཁൕğ၂đႇݓૣࡎ۬э߄൞ૅݓૣࡎ۬э߄֥(SBOHFSჰၹđૅૣࡎ۬э߄҂൞ႇݓૣࡎ۬э߄֥(SBOHFSჰၹđਆᆀᆭࡗթᄝՖႇݓૣࡎ۬֞ૅݓૣࡎ֥۬ֆཟၹݔܱ༢
ᆃіૼႇݓૣࡎ۬э߄ႄ֝ૅݓૣࡎ۬э߄Ġؽđᄎٮੱაႇݓૣࡎ֥۬ၹݔܱ༢ѩ҂ཁᇷĠđૅݓࡎ۬൞ᄎٮੱэ߄֥(SBOHFSჰၹđൈᄎٮੱэ߄္൞ૅݓࡎ۬э߄֥(SBOHFSჰၹđᄎٮੱэ߄აૅݓૣࡎ۬ᆭࡗթᄝචཟ֥(SBOHFSၹݔܱ༢b і ႇૅૣקࡎѰᒮ֥(SBOHFSၹݔဒࢲݔ - 7 -
ਬࡌഡ F࠹ᆴ ࢲં ႇݓࡎ۬҂൞ᄎٮੱэ߄֥Grangerჰၹ ҂ऋध ᄎٮੱэ߄҂൞ႇݓࡎ֥۬Grangerჰၹ ҂ऋध ૅݓࡎ۬҂൞ᄎٮੱэ߄֥Grangerჰၹ ऋध *ᄎٮੱэ߄҂൞ૅݓࡎ֥۬Grangerჰၹ ऋध ૅݓࡎ۬҂൞ႇݓࡎ֥۬Grangerჰၹ ҂ऋध ႇݓࡎ۬҂൞ૅݓࡎ֥۬Grangerჰၹ ऋध *ᇿğіൕ ֥ཁᇷྟඣđఃჅनູ ֥ཁᇷྟඣb aؓൌᆣࢲݔ֥ࢳ ႇૅᆭࡗૣસၞഈ֥oචܪp൧ӆࢲܒᇏđૅݓૣᇕᆱჳᇶބႇݓૣ١ြᆀᆭࡗऎႵࢠ఼֥ࣩᆚྟđಌكૼཁ֥؎൝৯đਆݓؓસၞૂࢺ൧ӆࢲܒ֥႕ཙಏૼཁ҂ğႇݓᄪ௹Ⴎ༆ႆ؇܄ඳ֩ӻႵૣ֩അ֥સၞ؎ಃđطު൞ႇݓഅ౼սਔתႆ؇܄ඳᆃဢ֥؎ᆀطषᅚૣસၞđႇݓᆟکؓఃაႆ؇aήࠣ֩ႇඋᆲֹ֥ૣસၞႵޓ఼֥સၞཋᇅᆟҦbᆃ൞ᄎႨٳمٳ༅ႇૅૣસၞקࡎ֥ࠎЧМࣟb č1ĎളӁᆀ-સၞૂࢺߌࢫקࡎ 8SJHIUč Ďؓ ୍ႇૅૣસၞ֥࠹ਈ࣮ࢲݔіૼđᆃ၂ൈ௹ႇݓؓૣ֥ླྟ൞٤ӈ֥֮đఃݣၬࣼ൞ೂݔૅݓି॥ᇅఃӁԛބԛ१ਈ֥߅đૅݓૣᄝൗࢸ൧ӆഈࣼႚႵൌᄝ֥؎קࡎି৯bᆃ၂؎קࡎି৯֥ൌགྷေૅݓૣളӁᆀऎСཌྷ֥֒Ӂਈ॥ᇅି৯bૅݓଽᅞభ֥༆҆ຉߙބૣ֥նܿଆᇕᆱđหљ൞ૅݓЧദ֥୪ြݓֹ໊đ֤ૅݓޓ၇ौӁြ સၞᆟҦൌགྷؓૣ֥Ӂਈ॥ᇅđᆃჿඏਔૅݓؓమᄝ൧ӆ৯ਈ֥ᄎႨbૅݓؓૣ֥Ӂਈ॥ᇅႵਆ۱ൈ௹ğ၂൞ؿളᄝૅݓଽᅞ௹ࡗ఼֥ᇅྟӁਈ॥ᇅđѩႮՎ֝ᇁૣࡎ۬ഈᅨĠؽ൞ૅݓᄝ ୍ष൫ဒ๙ݖᇕᆱ૫ࠒ॥ᇅބࡎ۬ᆦӻ֩ᆟҦၛิۚ୪Ӂࡎ۬ބ୪ӆ൬ೆđࢲݔૣ֩୪Ӂᄝᆃဢ֥Ӂਈ॥ᇅծീ༯ࠆ֤ਔસၞૂࢺഈ֥൧ӆ৯ਈđ ୍ႇݓ০௵֥ૅݓૣࣉ१ࡎ۬ննӑݖਔႆ؇ૣ֥ࣉ१ࡎ۬đૅݓૣࡎ۬न൞ႆ؇ૣࡎ֥۬ ПčBrandisđ1951Ďbᄝࣴൗࡀ֥ն҆ٳൈ௹ଽđૅݓૣളӁᆀၛ๙ݖളӁᆀ৳ކࠇᆟکᆟҦট႕ཙસၞૂࢺ֥൧ӆࢲܒb ਸ਼၂ٚ૫đႇݓᄝસၞૂࢺഈ֥؎൞٤ӈૼཁ֥bࢹᇹႿႇݓ֥ᆟᇍࣜ࠶৯ਈđ๙ݖࣜ࠶ᆟҦটႺ֝ήࠣ֩ྍૣളӁᆀࣉೆ൧ӆđൌགྷᆲֹ֥ֆ၂ԛ१ࣜ࠶ؿᅚଆൔ൞ႇݓࠆ֤ૣקࡎಃ֥ᇶေᆟҦđᆃ၂ᆟҦߎіགྷᄝႇݓؓιغধઐaႆ؇ߛઐaϏն০ရરู֩սളӁᆀҐ౼֥োර֥ᆟᇍࣜ࠶఼ᇅބࠗৣbᆃ၂ࣜ࠶ᆟҦაሷᇶݓ֥ᆟᇍ॥ᇅཌྷࢤކđࣼྙӮਔᄝસၞૂࢺഈ఼֥ᇅྟ؎đᆃဢ֥؎ಃᇶေ൞Ⴎᇝหљ൞ႇݓ֥સၞ܄ඳ෮ႚႵđૌ၂ϮႚႵؓᆲֹԛ१સၞ֥؎ಃđࢹՎࣼྙӮؓήࠣބႆ؇ֹ֩ìૣ֩ሧჷྟഅປಆ֥؎֮ࡎđջটਔࢠູ໗קط֮ࡎ֥ૣ܂۳টჷb ؓളӁᆀ-સၞૂࢺߌࢫקࡎႵᇗေ႕ཙ֥ၹߎᄝႿྍૣཨٮᆀࣉೆ൧ӆ֥؇ބܿଆbᄝࣴൗࡀభ϶௹đྍૣཨٮᆀࣉೆ൧ӆࢠતđაૅݓૣӁਈ֥ഈശཌྷбࢠđԢႇݓຓ֥ఃݓࡅ֥ૣ١ြؿᅚࢠતđႇݓ֥ૣཨٮਈӉ௹ჹնႿᆜ۱ᇝն֥ૣཨٮਈሹބđطૅݓa֣ݓ֩ྍྖࣜ࠶ุૣཨٮਈ֥ᄹӉᇶေؿളᄝ1870୍ၛíުbၹطđસၞૂࢺ֥൧ӆࢲܒࣼᇶေ൳֞ႇݓૣླ֥႕ཙđطႇݓ֥સၞૂࢺ؎ෙᇶေቔႨႿႇݓ֥ᆲֹđೂაૅݓᄝӁਈ॥ᇅഈ֥ބႇݓᆭຓૣླ֥ߏતᄹӉཌྷࢲކđࣼྙӮਔૅૣࡎ֥۬Ӊ௹༯ࢆ൝b č2Ďસၞૂࢺ-ཨٮᆀߌࢫקࡎ - 8 -
ෛሢႇݓૣ١ြ֥ؿᅚđႇݓ֥ૣཨٮᆀiiૣ١ြᆀေႵ৷ࡎԉቀ֥ૣ܂۳đఃᆟҦଢѓ൮༵൞ႇݓᆟک٬Ԣתႆ؇܄ඳ֩સၞૂࢺ؎ᆀ֥หಃđࢲݔᄝ1813୍תႆ؇܄ඳؓႆસၞ֥؎ಃФ౼ཨbႮႿႇݓᄝݚᄎބࣁವڛༀြᇏ֥؎ֹ໊đఃࢲݔ൞ࡼႇႆસၞՖתႆ؇܄ඳሇ၍֞ႇݓഅ൭ᇏđસၞૂࢺࣩᆚၐ՜ૣ֩അ֥ࣉ१ࡎ۬༯ࢆbൈđႮႿႇݓૣ١ြളӁބસၞ֥ᄹӉႆ؇ၛડቀૣླđૣ١ြᆀေ٬ᆸႇݓؓૅݓ֥સၞ࣌bູՎđ1794୍ႇૅᆭࡗదרਔࢭ၈่ჿđ҂൳ჰuݴݚمvཋᇅđ۳Ⴭૅݓ০ႨႇݓԯᆺՖ൙༆ႆ؇સၞ֥ಃ০đնਈࣉ१ૅݓૣb ᄝაૅݓ֥ૣસၞᇏđႇݓૣཨٮᆀ֥ቆᆮӱ؇္ჹۚႿૅݓ֥ૣളӁᆀbᄪᄝૅݓଽᅞЕؿభ֥1857୍đᄝણӞථหૣ١ြᆀ֥༯Ӯ৫ਔႇݓૣ܂۳ླྀ߶đ1860୍ણ్ථหഅ߶ቆࡹਔણӞථหૣ܄ඳđఃଢѓ൞࿙۷؟֥ૣ܂۳টჷđၛх૧ؓîૅݓૣ֥ݖ؇၇ঠb1902୍ႻӮ৫ਔႇݓૣᇕᆱླྀ߶đაᆲֹᆟکކቔᄝႇּݓଽ࿙ᅳൡၒ֥ૣളӁֹѩ࣮a൫ဒބؿᅚളӁႨૣ֥ᇕᆱbᄝႇݓᆟک֥ᆦӻ༯đႇݓસၞჴ߶ᇏህӮ৫ਔּݓૣᇕᆱჴ߶đ1920୍ߎӮ৫ਔּݓૣᇕᆱ܄ඳၛ՜ࣉྍૣളӁᆀࣉೆ൧ӆbႇݓૣཨٮᆀᄝԢસၞૂࢺ؎ުđႻҐ౼ཨٮᆀ৳ކྙӮྍસၞૂࢺđѩ๙ݖྍસၞૂࢺ؎ሇط՜ࣉൌགྷૣളӁᆀ-સၞૂࢺߌࢫ֥؎֮ࡎđᆃ၂؎֮ࡎቋᇔሇ߄ູႇݓૣ١ြૣ֥֮ࡎ܂۳b ႕ཙસၞૂࢺ-ཨٮᆀקࡎ֥ၹߎᄝႿႇݓሱႮસၞᆟҦؓૣྍཨٮᆀࣉೆ൧ӆ֥႕ཙb֞1860୍ႇݓၘౢԢਔસၞЌᆟҦ֥җჅđൌགྷਔࢠປಆ֥ሱႮસၞbᆃဢđႇݓॖ০Ⴈఃᄝԛ१ӁഈऎႵ֥ࣩᆚႪ൝đႨ౼ཨસၞཋᇅ֥Ϸمটঔնݓຓ൧ӆđࠧ๙ݖ౼ཨݓӁൻႇ֥ཋᇅđটߐ౼ݓ౼ཨႇࠊೆ१֥ཋᇅbགྷൌ൞đႇݓնਈࡎ৷ૅ֥Ӂյೆݓ൧ӆđطݓିൻႇ֥ᄵ؟ູჰਘa϶Ӯބഒඔ۽ြbႇݓሱႮસၞᆟҦ֥ധҪݣၬ൞ၝᇅሧჷྟഅ֥ྍཨٮᆀࣉೆ൧ӆđoമᇀႿሱႮસၞᆀյ֥ೂၩෘ൞đ၂֊յೆݓ൧ӆđࣼିቅᆸః۽ြؿᅚđമᇀԊॲ֥۽ြၘղ֞ᅝਵః൧ӆ֥ଢ֥b۷ïႵമᆀđmݓఋ۵ሢસၞሼnđቋުϜݓࠇఃֹູᆲֹbp ؓమᄝྍཨٮᆀࣉೆ൧ӆ֥ᇅჿ൞აࠗৣྍളӁᆀࣉೆ൧ӆ֥ᆟҦཌྷࢲކ֥bೂᄝႆ؇đႇඋתႆ؇܄ඳࠧ০Ⴈሱ֥࠭ᇍಃ؎ૣ֩ᇗေഅ֥સၞđѩ๙ݖҵљඥੱႺ֝ႆ؇Ӯູሧჷྟഅ֥Ӂֹބԛ१ݓbႇݓᆟکؓႆ؇١ᆮࣉ१Ґ౼࣌ᆸྟЌܱඥᆟ11Ҧđطؓႇݓ١ᆮᄵնږࢆ֮ఃࣉ१ܱඥđՎຓᄝݓଽඥഈ္ൌྛҵљඥੱbႇݓᄝႆ؇ބ٤ᇝֹ֩Ґ౼֥ᆃᇕoૣּݓᇶၬpᆟҦ၂ٚ૫ᇅჿބࡨഒݓૣཨٮᆀ֥ૣླđൈߎࠗৣѩᄹࡆਔૣ֥ളӁބԛ१đ҂ٸෞਔֹ֥֒ᆮ҃ြđᆃဢჰটᄝֹ֒١ᆮ֥ૣॖԛ१֞ႇݓđطᆮ҃۽ದߎॖၛሇطളӁૣđࣉطႇݓ֥ૣᇅ߶ูսֹ֒Ӂđّݖটࣉ၂҄ࠗৣૣ֥ԛ१čHimburyđ1918ĠJohnsonđ1974Ďb č3ĎૣקࡎѰᒮ֥ࢲݔ 3൞સၞᇏࢺଆᄝႇૅૣקࡎᇏ֥эྙbᅼཌSaSٳљіൕႇݓᆲֹބૅݓfa֥ૣഺჅ܂۳౷ཌđS൞ࡆሹ֥ഺჅ܂۳౷ཌđD൞ႇݓ֥ሹླ౷ཌbႮႿႇݓᆲֹ֥ૣᇕᆱ۷ູٳaඌඣࢠູઋުđၹطః܂۳౷ཌӯགྷ༵ඣުཟႷഈౠོ֥ྙሑđfQᆭު֥܂۳၂ٚ૫ჷႿۚࡎ۬ࠗৣ༯ᆲֹૣᇕᆱᆀࡨഒఃཨٮđൈ္টჷႿઐa12ߛઐู֩սĠૅݓ֥ૣᇕᆱჳሹ֥টࢃ૫ࠒ۷նđඌඣ۷༵ࣉđӮЧ္ࢠ֮đၹaaطૅݓૣ֥܂۳౷ཌᄝQቐҧӯགྷࢠཬོ֥ੱđطᄝQႷҧོੱࢠնđᆃᇶေ൞ၹູ९թބؓૅݓૣཨٮู֥սĠႇݓ֥ૣླ౷ཌ֥ྙሑᄵᇶေ൳֞ሧЧթਈ֥႕ཙđၹطӯགྷᇏࡗ؍ಌكླྟԼᆰႿޘᇠđਆҧྟࢠնѩཟቐഈౠོ֥ྙሑbཁಖđनޙࡎ۬ބ ඔਈູpބQb ႇݓᄝસၞૂࢺഈ֥൧ӆ৯ਈіགྷᄝॖၛ๙ݖસၞૂࢺ؎ൌགྷؓఃᆲֹૣളӁބԛ१֥॥ᇅđၛш࠽ӮЧࠆ֤֮ࡎ֥ᆲֹૣูսྟ܂۳đၹطૅݓૣࡎ۬ࣼ൳ - 9 -
֞ႇݓᆲֹૣࡎ֥۬ᇅჿbൈႮႿૅݓၛ๙ݖӁြ સၞᆟҦൌགྷӁਈ॥ᇅđࣼྙӮਔႇݓૣࡎ۬ֆཟႄ֝ૅݓૣࡎ֥۬ࢲݔbݚᄎٮੱაૅݓૣԛ१ࡎ۬ཌྷࢲކᆺିЌӻᄝႇݓႿᆲֹ෮ࠆ֤֥؎֮ࡎඣഈđᆲֹૣู֥սఃӮູ႕ཙૅݓࡎ֥۬ᇗေҕᅶ༢čLoganđ1958ĎބࣩᆚࢸbᄝՎࠎԤഈđૅݓૣࡎ֥۬эაݚᄎٮੱ֥э ڵཌྷܱđྙӮචཟ֥Grangerၹݔܱ༢bᆃ္ᆣૼԮ෮ಪ്֥ႇݓݴᄎြؓૣקࡎ֥႕ཙѩ҂ޓᇗေđႇݓ౼֤ૣקࡎႪ൝֥ᇶေჷಅᄝႿః๙ݖᆟᇍࣜ࠶ᆟҦࠆ֤֥સၞૂ14ࢺ൧ӆ৯ਈb p SS a S f p D B£faQ Q Q2 Q 3.ႇૅૣקࡎଆ ᆃ၂קࡎ۬अ֥໗קླေਆ۱่ࡱğ၂൞ૅݓ֥ഺჅ܂۳౷ཌ҂ؿളቐ၍đࠧԢႇݓᆭຓ֥ఃૣཨٮᆀčૣ١۽ြĎ֥ཨٮਈбࢠ໗קĠؽ൞ႇݓିົӻఃᄝᆲֹ֥સၞૂࢺ؎đିӻ࿃ၛш࠽ӮЧࠆ֤ॖौู֥սྟૣ܂۳b൙ൌഈᆃਆ۱่ࡱՖࣴൗࡀພ௹षؿളਔऍն֥э߄bֻ၂۱่ࡱ֥э߄൞đෛሢ֣ݓaರЧ֩ྍཨٮᆀࣉೆ൧ӆđႭః൞ૅݓሱദૣ١ြ֥ঔᅦđ֞ؽൗࡀԚđᇝնބૅݓ֥ૣཨٮਈBၘննӑݖႇݓđૅݓ֥ૣഺჅ܂۳౷ཌቐ၍đनޙඔਈӑݖ2đૣࡎ۬ഈ15ᅨđႇݓᄝૣקࡎഈ֥Ⴊ൝කࡨĠֻؽ۱่ࡱ֥э߄൞đႮႿ֣ݓaૅݓ֥ЌܱඥᆟҦཋᇅđႇݓᆺି၂ٚ૫၇ौۚᇉਈ֥ૣ١ᆮಀक़ڛૅݓބ༆֥ܱۚඥđਸ਼၂ٚ૫Ⴈ৷ࡎࠊಀᅝਵॹؿᅚ֥ᇝ൧ӆđᆃ၂ᆟҦ۷؟ֹ၇ঠႿؓᆲ఼ֹ֥ᇅྟٳ۽ބસၞᆟҦđ٤ӈգčSandbergđ1968Ďbෛሢᆲุ༢ᄝਆՑնᅞުຐࢳđႇݓᄝસၞૂࢺഈ֥൧ӆ৯ਈࣼ۷ࣉ၂҄ཤਔb۷ᇗေ֥൞đႇݓౠ৯ܒࡹ֥؟ჭ߄܂۳ุ༢္ᆺ൞ᄝؽᅞభުٚᇯࡶӮđՎൈ֥ႇݓૣ١ြᄪၘڄܻ҂ᄜbႇૅᆭࡗ֥ૣקࡎѰᒮԛགྷਔაࣴൗࡀປಆ҂֥ࢲݔb ੂaࢲંྟඍ ෛሢᇏݓࣜ࠶֥ؿᅚđႵᄀটᄀ؟֥સၞഅᅝऌൗࢸસၞ֥ᇗေٺحđھഅ֥൧ӆࢲܒဆэູݓࡅᇏྏᇶၬၩၬഈ֥oܪp൧ӆࢲܒbᆃ၂oܪp൧ӆࢲܒѩ҂ିջটޓ఼֥સၞഅקࡎି৯đཌྷّđoᇏݓ܂۳ջࡎ۬༯ࢆđᇏݓླջࡎ۬ഈᅨpa oܪpֹ໊ބקࡎಃಌാ܋թӮູऎ௴ђྟ֥གྷའbԮࣜ࠶ંؓՎಏၛ۳ԛఞ֥֒ࢳđᆃ൞Ⴎఃݓࡅᇏྏᇶၬ֥ԛ१ݓ-ࣉ१ݓؽٳمٳ༅ٓൔ෮ႄᇁ֥сಖࢲݔđᆃ၂ٳ༅ٓൔໃॉ੮֞൧ӆັܴࢲܒđໃିࡼགྷൌᇏնਈթᄝ֥સၞᇏࢺႄೆଆࣉྛٳ༅đໃିࡼᆟکۄყაದЌବೆ၂֥ٳ༅ॿࡏᆭᇏđၹطఃٳ༅ંՖંߎ൞Ֆൌഈ൞༂֝ - 10 -
֥b ູՎđЧ໓ࡼႵྙસၞᇏࢺაྴસၞᇏࢺ݂ѩູસၞૂࢺđѩႄೆ֞൧ӆັܴࢲܒᆭᇏđܒࡹਔ၂۱સၞഅקࡎ֥ٳمٳ༅ॿࡏđᄝᆃ۱ٳ༅ॿࡏᇏđસၞഅקࡎॖٳࢳູളӁᆀ-સၞૂࢺaસၞૂࢺ-ཨٮᆀਆ۱קࡎߌࢫđૄ၂ߌࢫ֥קࡎ൞၂۱ᆟᇍࣜ࠶֥؟ٚѰᒮݖӱđૌࡼݓࡅ/ᆟکᆟҦФ൪ູ၂۱๙ݖ႕ཙસၞૂࢺ֥൧ӆ৯ਈࣉطൌགྷఃሱദଢѓ֥ຓളэਈđቋᇔ֥קࡎࢲݔ൞સၞૂࢺ๙ݖაളӁᆀބཨٮᆀ֥קࡎѰᒮ࿊ᄴః০ቋն߄֥ઙછࡎ۬đՖطൌགྷ൧ӆԛౢb Ч໓ߎ๙ݖ٤ӈׅ֥ࣴൗࡀႇૅૣસၞoචܪpσ২টӂളӁᆀaસၞૂࢺބཨٮᆀᆭࡗگᄖ֥קࡎѰᒮݖӱbູՎૌ๙ݖࡎ۬э֥ཌྷؓྟaሇࡑ༢ඔބGrangerၹݔဒᇕٚمট؎ႇૅૣקࡎѰᒮ֥ࢲݔđѩ০ႨᄎႨٳم֥ٳ༅ॿࡏđؓႇૅචٚ႕ཙસၞૂࢺ൧ӆࢲܒ֥ᆟک/ದЌᆟҦؓૣקࡎ֥႕ཙࣉྛਔٳ༅đؽᆀ֥ࢲݔປಆ໖ކđᆃູЧ໓ิԛ֥ٳ༅ॿࡏิ܂ਔ২ᆣބᆦӻb ၛЧ໓ิԛ֥ٳ༅ॿࡏটࢳᇏݓ oܪpֹ໊აקࡎಃಌാ܋թ֥đ၂۱؎൞đၛݓࡅູٳ༅ֆჭ֥oܪp൧ӆࢲܒໃିّ႘ݓଽ֥ັܴ൧ӆࢲܒđݓଽ֥ປಆࣩᆚ൧ӆބӁਈ/ཨٮਈ॥ᇅഈ֥ཌྷࢲކđࣼྙӮਔᇏݓᄝસၞૂࢺ൧ӆ৯ਈഈ֥൝đᆃߎླေ༯၂֥҄ൌᆣ࣮Ⴭၛᆣൌb၂۱ૼཁ֥൙ൌ൞đෛሢಆ౯સၞሱႮ߄֥ᇯ҄ࣉđႵྙ֥સၞૂࢺ؎ᇯ҄ࡨഒđದЌაᆟکᆟҦཌྷࢲކطྙӮ֥ྴસၞૂࢺ؎iiೂაሧჷྟഅႵܱ֥वหغaഅླྀקބસၞЌᆟҦđಆ౯ྟ֥ሧჷ܄ඳ֥ۚ؇ࠢᇏ߄đၛࠣೂغઑᆃဢ֥ॴݓ܄ඳᆰࢤસၞiiರࡶԛđ۲ݓؓસၞૂࢺ֥ᆚؠ္۷ࠗਛbၹطđؓᇏݓطđoᇏݓླջࡎ۬ഈᅨđᇏݓ܂۳ջࡎ۬༯ࢆp֥oն൧ӆᙣંpᆺ൞ᇏݓᄝસၞૂࢺഈंႿປಆࣩᆚ൧ӆֹ໊֥ԛّ႘đᇏݓᄝસၞഅקࡎᇏႪ൝֥ࠆ֤ߎ၇ঠႿ၂۱୭৯ଔ Ԣસၞૂࢺ؎֥ᆟᇍࣜ࠶ݖӱđၛ#3*$Tູսі֥ྍྖࣜ࠶ุᗌఏބൗࢸࣜ࠶۬अဆэູᆃ၂ᆟᇍࣜ࠶ݖӱิ܂ਔఔࠏb ҕॉ໓ང: [1] [ج]ୄx҃ݗਟğuൗࢸࣜ࠶ބּݓᇶၬvđКࣘğᇏݓഠ߶॓࿐ԛϱഠđ1983b [2] [ૅ]અѵห·J·ऺѵğuݓ࠽ࣜ࠶࿐vđჰၪफ֩ၲđКࣘğ༱ԛϱഠđ2005b [3] [ႇ]్غğuྍஂغ۬ূڏൗࢸൎ࠹ğ1750-1993vđޏ৯ၲđКࣘğࣜ࠶॓࿐ԛϱഠđ2002b [4] [ႇ]්ೳ·ථหধఅğuಃ০ੀiiൗࢸࣜ࠶ᇏ֥ݓࡅބ٤ݓࡅಃຯvđޡდaۻླྀڂၲđКࣘğКࣘն࿐ԛϱഠđ2005b [5] ޅඨݔ,č1995ĎğuૅݓoૣݓpൎvđКࣘğᇏݓഠ߶॓࿐ԛϱഠb [6] ࢀႄ,č1988ĎğuႇݓൎvđКࣘğഠ߶॓࿐ԛϱഠb [7] Abreu,,PđFernandes,. “Market Power and Commodity Prices: Brazil, Chile and the United States,1820s-1930” TEXTO PARA DISCUSSÃO No. 511, 2006. [8] Baumol, W. J.; Panzar, J. and Willig, R. D. oContestable Markets and the Theory of Industry YorkğHarcourt Brace Jovanovichđ1982. [9] Brandis, R. oCotton Economic Journal, 1951, 3, pp. 28-38. [10] Fingleton, J. oCompetition among Middlemen when Buyers and Sellers can Trade Journal of Industrial Economics, 1997, 4, pp. 405-427. [11] Hackett, S. oA Comparative Analysis of Merchant and Broker of Economic Behavior and Organization, 1992, 18, pp. 299-315. [12] Hammond, . oThe Cotton IndustryğAn Essay in American Economic Publications of the American Economic Association, 1897, pp. 3-382. - 11 -
[13] Hanson û, . oWorld Demand for Cotton during the Nineteenth Century: Wright’s Estimates Journal of Economic History, 1979, 4, pp. 1015-1021. [14] Himbury, of the Royal African Society,1918, 68, pp. 262-275. [15] Johnson, M. oCotton Imperialism in West Africa.”African Affairs, 1974, 291, pp. 178-187. [16] Logan, . oIndia-Britain’s Substitute for American Cotton, Journal of Southern History, 1958, 4, pp. 472-480. [17] Porter, . oCompetitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and York: The Free Pressđ1980. [18] Sandberg, . oMovements in the Quality of British Cotton Textile Exports, Journal of Economic History, 1968, 1, pp. 1-27. [19] Schröder, Philipp .; Trabold, H. and Trʴbswetter, P. oIntermediation in Foreign Trade: When do Exporters Rely on Economics Quarterlyđ2005, 3, pp. 267-288. [20] Spulber, . oMarket Microstructure and of Economic Perspectives, 1996đ10đpp. 135-152. [21] Winkler, . oIntermediation under Trade Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1989, 2, pp. 299-324. [22] Wright, G. oAn Econometric Study of Cotton Production and Trade, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1971, 2, pp. 111-120. æ ݗڍ࿐ஊ֥SCPٓൔಪູ൧ӆࢲܒथקקࡎࢲݔđᆟکᆟҦᇶေቔႨႿ൧ӆࢲܒࣉطࡗࢤ႕ཙቋᇔקࡎbໃॉ੮֞ࣉೆуৈࠣॖࣩᆚྟၹđؓ൧ӆࢲܒ֥ٳ༅҂ܔಆ૫đطᄝݓ࠽൧ӆࣩᆚᇏđᆟکቔႨაݓଽࣩᆚն҂ཌྷđֹၩၬഈ֥ݓࡅ൞՜ࣉસၞૂࢺ൧ӆ৯ਈטᆜ֥ቋնྛᆟֆჭb ç ၂۱Ⴕ౿֥২ሰ൞ᇕᆱऴ٥֥୪षჰႵ֥સၞૂࢺčᇏࡗഅĎᆰࢤࡼऴ٥છ۳ཨٮᆀčࡆ۽ӌބਬ൲അĎđၛՎิۚऴ٥֥ࡎ۬ބ൬ೆ֥෮໌o܄ࢌၞᄎpbབྷ༥ษંҕઅѵห·J·ऺѵč2005đᇏၲЧĎđ-288b è સၞૂࢺॖି߶ӻႵࠇטᆜթࠊਈđၹط၂۱ൈ௹ଽఃઙછඔਈॖିѩ҂ཌྷ֩đсྶൌགྷॴ௹ԛౢđၹطթࠊ่ࡱ༯ၛഈٳ༅ಯಖӮ৫b é ཋႿસၞ࠹ඔऌ֥ॖ֤ྟđޓᆰࢤࡼસၞૂࢺၹّ႘ᄝ࠹ਈଆᇏđၹطॖၛ০Ⴈࡎ۬э֥ཌྷؓྟ֩ٚمটࡗࢤ؇ਈસၞഅ֥קࡎಃb ê ᄝ၂Ϯ֥સၞഅקࡎٳ༅ᇏđߎॖҐႨܱඥaཨٮඥaჰҋਘӮЧ֩эਈb ë ൌᆣࢲݔᆣൌđࡼᇌުਆࢨࠣၛഈэਈᇂೆଆ൞҂ཁᇷ֥đၹطЧ໓ࣇ࿊ᄴᇌު၂௹эਈࣉೆଆb ì ೂᄝႆ؇đႇඋתႆ؇܄ඳࠧ০Ⴈሱ֥࠭ᇍಃ؎ૣ֩ᇗေഅ֥સၞđѩ๙ݖҵљඥੱႺ֝ႆ؇Ӯູૣ֩ሧჷྟഅ֥Ӂֹބԛ१ݓbᄝήࠣđႇݓն৯ྛo୪ြࣜ࠶ህြ߄pᆟҦđήࠣࣜ࠶ࡆሼཟֆ၂ԛ१ࣜ࠶đӮູႇݓૣ֥ჰਘ܂ႋࠎֹބૣ١ᆮ֥ԛ१൧ӆb í ૅݓᄝః۽ြ߄Ԛ௹ᄻܼٗᄎႨસၞЌᆟҦ՜ࣉݓଽӁြؿᅚđ๙ݖྍཨٮᆀ֥ტ္ႵᇹႿڿૣളӁᆀ-સၞૂࢺߌࢫ֥קࡎbႵܱࣴൗࡀૣཨٮਈඔऌđҕHammondč1897Ďđp344b î ھླྀ߶ᇁ৯Ⴟ൬ࠢ҂ૣӁ֥ྐ༏đѩູᆭิ܂Ⴊᇉ֥ᇕሰa۽ऎބഡСđമᇀߎϜࠞڶࣜဒ֥ૅݓૣ୪ෂ֞ႆ؇ࣉྛളӁᆷ֝ၛᄹࡆૣ܂۳čLoganđ1958Ďb ï ࢀႄᇶщ. ႇݓൎ[M]. Кࣘğഠ߶॓࿐ԛϱഠđ1988đp555b 11 ೂᄝႇݓ҃ࣉೆႆ؇֥ᄪ௹đႆ؇ଽᆘ൬֥ݖඥࣼؓႇݓ҃ᆘ൬5%֥࠹ࡎඥđطႆ؇֥҃ඥੱᄵູ20%đՎުෛሢႇݓ҃ؓႆ؇൧ӆ֥ᅝਵđູьႿఃཧ൲đႻᇯࡶ౼ཨਔݖඥđႇݓᄝ٤ᇝ္Ӊ௹Ґ౼ᆃᇕᆟҦđၹູᆲᆀᆺႵؓݓଽસၞᆘඥđҌି۷ݺֹЌ૧ඥࣉ१֥ᇅӮđطીႵఆ൪ྟඥ൬֥߅đႇݓࠊࣼ҂ିֹ֒ࣉྛࣩᆚčJohnsonđ1974Ďb 12 ႇݓૣ١ြᆀ۷༟ߋҐܓૅݓૣط٤ᆲֹૣđჰၹᄝႿૅݓૣ֥ֆЇᇗਈ۷նaᄖᇉ۷ഒaᇉਈ۷ۚbॖҕHammondč1897Ďđp267-273b 13 ᆃॖିაݚᄎြࢠ఼֥ࣩᆚႵܱbऌ࠹đૅݓ֥ԛ१સၞᇏႮૅݓԯѷᄎൻ֥б২၂ᆰ൞ཌྷ֥֒ۚđᄝ ୍ᆃ၂ൈ௹नЌӻᄝ ၛഈđ၂ൈ௹ݚᄎٮੱ֥նږ༯ࢆ္ᆣૼᄝݴᄎြؓૅݓᄝૣקࡎᇏֹ໊֥႕ཙ൞҂ཁᇷ֥bၛഈඔऌჷႿ<ૅ>ࠝغѵห·$·٣ห
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ഫဝğୡದԛϱഠđ đQQ đѩࣜгᆀ࠹ෘb 14 ᆃᇕႪ൝္ֹّ໊႘ᄝაఃཨٮݓ֥ૣࡎ۬ҵၳഈb%VOIBNč Ď࣮ਔ ୍սႇمഅჿؓمݓૣ١ြؿᅚ֥႕ཙđᆷԛđૣસၞഈ֥مݓၮࡎمݓളӁഅंႿਜ൝đෙؓႇمਆݓ֥ૣࡎҵթᄝᆚၰđمݓಒൌᄝૣࣉ१ഈᆦڱਔࢠ֥ۚࡎ۬bҕDunham, Arthur L. oThe Development of the Cotton Industry in France and the Anglo-French Treaty of Commerce of Economic History Review, 1928, 2, pp. 281-307. 15 ҃ݗਟč1917đp68Ďᇿၩ֞đᄝࣴൗࡀଌؽൗࡀԚ௹đૅݓa֣ݓ֩ྍྖࣜ࠶ุ֥ؿᅚ֤oቋ୍࣍টളӁ৯Ⴕਔயѱ֥ؿᅚđᄝնလдρ֥ݓࡅđఃᇏ൮༵൞ૅݓđၘࣜؿᅚਔሱ֥࠭۽ြđၹطؓ୪Ӂ֥ླರၭᄹࡆbః୪ြݓ္ؿളਔဢ౦ঃđllննڿэਔ۽ြളӁა୪ြളӁᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢đၛᇁඔਈഈ֥э߄ၘղ֞ࠧࡼؿളᇉэ֥ӱ؇bၹՎđ୪Ӂ֥ಌكđ۲ֹ୪Ӂࡎ۬௴ђഈᅨđࣼӮູሧЧᇶၬቋྍࢨ؍֥၂ᇕགྷའbp Oligopoly Market Structure, Trade Media and Merchandise Trade Price-setting: An Analytical Framework and Case Study on Cotton Trade History Sun Zesheng (School of Economics & Management, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, Zhejiang Hnagzhou 310023) Abstract: China is facing the coexistence dilemma of oligopolistic position and lack of price-setting power. This thesis posed a merchandise trade price-setting analytical framework by introducing trade media, in which trade media choose the profit-maximizing bid-ask price under the game with producer and consumer, and national and/or individual protective policy directly influence market structure of trade media and then indirectly influence merchandise trade price-setting. Under nationalism’s oligopolistic market structure, the result of price-setting relied not only those national policies but also the domestic micro market structure for both exporter and importer. Based on Anglo-USA cotton trade case study, this thesis demonstrated and supported the analytical framework by relative price elasticity, shifting coefficient and Granger casualty test. Keywords: oligopolistic market structure, trade media, merchandise trade price-setting, cotton trade - 13 -
