-1-
公路运输枢纽规划布局方法
魏晓明，杨松攀
长安大学汽车学院，陕西西安（710064）
摘 要：运用交通规划和数学建模的理论，对公路运输枢纽的规划布局方法进行了研究。提
出在枢纽规划运输量预测过程中采用组合预测的方法，并给出了组合预测计算公式。在论述
了运输量预测之后，利用定性分析和定量计算相结合得到公路运输枢纽布局方法，最后介绍
了枢纽规划布局方案的评价步骤和方法。为公路运输枢纽提供了一套切实可行的规划布局方
法。
关键词：运输枢纽；规划布局；组合预测
1. 引言
公路运输枢纽指在公路运输网节点上，依托城市所形成的能够提供运输组织、中转和
装卸储运、中介代理、通信信息和辅助服务等基本功能的综合性基础设施。其实体表现为公
路客运站和公路货运站。公路运输枢纽中的客运站可将城市内部交通和对外交通有机的联系
起来，货运站作为货物运输中转的场所，在运输网络中起到衔接运输线路的作用。由于运输
枢纽布局方法相对比较灵活，在规划公路运输枢纽时，其规划的数量、位置等有多种选择，
所形成的不同的布局方案的运输能力、整体运用成本和效益影响很大。规范枢纽规划布局方
法对区域交通运输的发展起到至关重要的作用。
2. 运输枢纽市场需求与预测
在规划运输枢纽的时候，第一步也是很关键的一步就是对区域运输市场需求进行准确
的预测。根据地区社会经济发展、产业布局、人口分布和区域长远发展规划，调查现有运输
枢纽的数量、规模、地区分布和服务状况，结合现有货运和客运的特点、规模、流向，以及
发展前景，采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法对运输枢纽的市场需求做出准确预测。
社会经济及交通运输发展趋势预测
分析枢纽影响区域内经济社会和交通（包括基础设施和运输）发展的趋势，研究经济
社会和交通未来发展趋势对拟建枢纽相关领域所带来的影响及变化需求。预测出经济社会、
交通运输主要指标发展水平。货运站规划，还应重点分析项目影响区域内物流的发展趋势、
发展规划及其对拟建枢纽相关领域所带来的影响及变化需求。
运输枢纽作业量预测
运输枢纽规划中运输枢纽作业量的预测很重要，因为它将直接决定区域内运输枢纽总
规模大小，预测数值过大，建造后的枢纽将造成资源浪费，预测数值过小，将不能满足运输
需求，造成对运输的瓶颈制约。
预测方法的选择十分重要，它直接关系到预测结果的可信程度，关系到枢纽站场的布
局是否合理，关系到枢纽站场能否满足将来规划区域的运输市场需求。常用的客货运量预测
方法有：一元线性回归、多元线性回归、指数平滑法、弹性系数法、灰色 G(1，1)模型等。
每种方法各有利弊，为避免采用单一方法预测的刚性，本文提出采用组合预测的方法
来预测运输量，这样可以提高预测精度和增加预测结果的可靠性。
-2-
组合预测模型[4]为：
∑
=
⋅=
n
i
ii ywY
1
ˆˆ
式中：Yˆ ——组合预测值；
iy ——第 i 种预测模型的预测值；
iw ——第 i 种预测模型被赋予的权重系数，
1
1
n
i
i
w
=
=∑ ；
n——预测模型的数目。
权重 iw 的确定，采用标准差法：
1
1
i
i
S Sw
S n
−= ⋅ −
其中：
1
n
i
i
S S
=
=∑
iS ——第 i 种预测模型的标准差。
3. 运输枢纽规划布局方法
公路运输枢纽的总体布局规划，将涉及到城市的总体规划、土地规划和交通规划等诸
多因素，要对其进行定性分析和定量计算相结合，才能保证布局规划的合理性。定性分析的
方法主要是根据枢纽布局应遵循的原则，结合实际情况和政府政策定性选取合适的位置和规
模。
运输枢纽规划布局应遵循的原则
（1） 运输枢纽应与公路网规划建设相协调。
（2） 运输枢纽应与城市总体规划相协调。
（3） 运输枢纽应与综合运输网发展相协调。
（4） 运输枢纽应满足现代物流发展需求。
（5） 运输枢纽布局应考虑新旧结合，并保证可持续发展。
显然定性分析的方法不能准确反映运输枢纽建设的经济位置、数量和规模，但在规划
布局中可以将其作为考虑因素，再结合定量计算的结果，规划出的枢纽更能适应运输发展的
需求，同时达到降低运输成本的效果。
定量计算的方法是应用数学模型以其某种或几种运营指标达到最优为目标对运输枢纽
进行布局规划，常用的方法有混合整数规划法、目的规划法、重心法等。借鉴物流中心的规
划布局方法，我们可以得到枢纽规划定量计算的数学模型[1]为：
1 1 1 1 1 1
min
m k l l n l l
ik ik kj kj k k k k
i k k j k k
f A X B Y C Z F Z
=
= = = = = =
= + + +∑∑ ∑∑ ∑ ∑
Subject To：
1
, 1, 2,...,
l
k i
k
X O i m
=
≤ =∑
1
, 1, 2,...,
l
kj j
k
Y D j n
=
≥ =∑
-3-
1 1
, 1, 2,...,
l l
ik kj
k k
X Y k l
= =
= =∑ ∑
1
, 1, 2,...,
l
ik k k
k
X Z M k l
=
≤ =∑
1,
0k
k
Z
k
⎧⎨⎩
第 个备选站场被选中
，第 个备选站场未被选中
, 0,ik kjX Y ≥
式中， ikX ：从运输发生点 i 到备选站场 k 的运输量； kjY ：从备选站场到运输吸引点
的运输量； kZ ：备选站场 k 是否被选中的整数变量； ikA ：从运输发生点 i 到备选站场 k 的
单位运输费用； kjB ：从备选站场 k 到运输吸引点 j 的单位运输费用； kC ：备选站场 k 中单
位运输量的可变成本； kF ：备选站场 k 的固定建设成本； iO ：总运输发生量； jD ：总运
输吸引量； kM ：备选站场的适站量。
对此模型进行求解，求得 ikX 、 kjY 、 kZ 的值使得目标函数 f 的值最小，达到最优化，
从而可以对运输枢纽进行合理布局。
4. 运输枢纽规划布局方案评价
在枢纽规划布局的时候，不同的计算方法，不同的计算模型等都可能会得到不同的规
划布局方案。对备选的多个可行方案进行比较，从而科学、客观、准确地得到评价结论，则
显的尤为重要。传统的评价方法多是采用定性分析和分级打分制方法，评价结论带有很强的
主观性。定量计算评价方法目前多采用的是关联矩阵法、模糊综合评价法、层次分析法等。
定量计算的方法具体的评价步骤见图 1。
图 1 运输枢纽规法方案评价步骤
通过对几个枢纽规划方案的定性分析与定量计算结果，可最终确定最佳枢纽规划方案。
分析枢纽规划影响因素
建立评价指标体系
确定评价方法
规划方案综合评价
评价结果分析、确定优选方案
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最终达到规划和评价的一致最优。
5. 结语
（1）给出了公路运输枢纽规划布局的一般方法和步骤，规范了运输枢纽的建设，为公
路运输枢纽的建设提供了可靠的理论支持。
（2）提出在运输量预测过程中采用组合预测的方法，从而避免单一预测模型的弊端，
使得预测的结果更准确，为规划布局打下了良好的基础。
（3）通过分析物流中心规划布局模型，得到了公路运输枢纽的规划布局模型，有待进
一步研究的工作是利用启发式算法对模型进行求解，从而达到在最短时间内求得模型的最优
解。
参考文献
[1] 雷磊。综合运输枢纽公路客运场站布局方法研究[J]。西华大学学报· 自然科学版，2006，（11）：26-28
[2] 李旭宏，胡文友，毛海军。区域物流中心规划方法[J]。交通运输工程学报，2002，（3）：85-88
[3] 胡大伟，杜敏。产品销售物流配送中心布局方法研究[J]。中国公路学报，2004，（10）：114-118
[4] 王生昌，白韶波，张 慧。公路客运量预测方法的比较[J]。长安大学学报(自然科学版)，2005，（9）：
83-85
Highway transportation hub planning method
Wei Xiaoming, Yang Songpan
School of automobile, Chang’an University, Xi’an (710064)
Abstract
This paper studies highway transportation hub planning method by the theory of transportation
planning and mathematical modeling. We propose using the combined forecasting method when we
predict the transport volume, and the formulation is given. After forecasting of transport volume,
highway transportation hub planning method is obtained from the research on qualitative analysis and
quantitative calculation. The evaluation methods and evaluation steps is introduced at last. We provide
a practical method for the highway transportation hub planning.
Keywords: transportation hub; planning layout; combined forecasting method
作者简介：
魏晓明，男，汽车学院，专业：载运工具运用工程，研究方向：运输系统与运输站场规划；
胡大伟，导师。
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/NOR <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>
/SVE <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>
>>
>> setdistillerparams
<<
/HWResolution [2400 2400]
/PageSize [ ]
>> setpagedevice
