2005쓪11퓂뗚19뻭뗚11웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뮪ꆡ뚫ꆡ뺭ꆡ볃ꆡ맜ꆡ샭EastChinaEconomicManagemꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡNov.,,쿖뷰막샻헾닟폫짏쫐릫쮾듺샭돉놾쪵횤퇐뺿돂헱뮪,십폀뾪(뗧ퟓ뿆벼듳톧ꆡ맜샭톧풺,쯄뒨ꆡ돉뚼ꆡ610054)[햪튪]컄헂닉폃뛠풪믘맩뗄랽램퇐뺿엉쿖폫짏쫐릫쮾죽훖늻춬듺샭돉놾횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ쪵횤랢쿖,엉쿖쓜붵뗍막뚫폫맜샭헟뗄듺샭돉놾;엉쿖폫맺폐막ꆢ램죋막뇈샽돉뛾듎럇쿟탔맘쾵;헽뎣쿖뷰막샻랢럅횻쫇듳막뚫믱좡릫릲쫕틦뗄튻훖쫖뛎,늻쓜뮺뷢듳킡막뚫횮볤뗄샻틦돥춻,붵뗍듳막뚫뗄쮽폐쫕틦ꆣ[맘볼듊]뛠풪믘맩;뛾듎럇쿟탔;쮽폐쫕틦[훐춼럖샠뫅]F273ꆡꆡꆡ[컄쿗뇪쪶싫]Aꆡꆡꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]1007ꆪ5097(2005)11ꆪ0064ꆪ05EmpiricalResearchofCashDividendandAgencyCostCHENZhen2hua,MAYong2kai(ManagementCollege,UniversityofElectronicScienceandTechnologyofChina,Chengdou610054,China)Abstract:,:multianalysis;agencyproblem;cashdividend;quadraticnon2linear;privatebenefitꆡꆡ튻ꆢ샭싛믘맋폫럖컶뗍막뚫볠뚽돉놾ꆣ쿖듺웳튵뗄튻룶훘튪쳘헷쫇솽좨럖샫,막뚫붫웤평폚훐맺짏쫐릫쮾폫컷랽릫쮾퓚막좨짏듦퓚뻞듳닆닺캯췐룸맜샭헟뺭펪,폚쫇닺짺쇋캯췐ꆪꆪꆪ듺샭맘닮틬,훐맺짏쫐릫쮾쓚늿늻떫듦퓚막뚫폫맜샭헟뗄캯쾵,랢짺듺샭돉놾ꆣJensen[1\](1986\)쳡돶맜샭닣폫막췐듺샭컊쳢,뮹듦퓚웤쯻솽닣듺샭컊쳢ꆣ튻훖캪맺폐뚫횮볤뗄듺샭컊쳢,짏쫐릫쮾뗄맜샭닣ퟷ캪듺샭죋늢막ퟔ짭뗄캯췐듺샭컊쳢:컒맺짏쫐릫쮾듳훂뿉틔럖캪늻ퟜ쫇내헕캯췐죋막뚫샻틦ퟮ듳뮯뗄풭퓲좥맜샭릫쮾,맺폐막ꆢ램죋막뫍짧믡릫훚막,웤훐맺폐막폫램죋막뛸쫇캪쇋쒱쟳쮽샻뷸탐튻킩쟖몦막뚫샻틦뗄뻶닟,죧햼짏쫐릫쮾ퟜ막놾뇈훘뫜듳,쟒늻쓜쇷춨,쒿잰쫐뎡맻릫쮾쓚늿뷰맽뛠,뻍믡떼훂맜샭닣뗄맽뛈춶,쫇듳풼폐죽럖횮튻뗄막욱뿉틔뷸탐붻틗ꆣ맺폐막폫램헢뻍쫇쯹캽뗄ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷컊쳢ꆣ막샻뗄횧뢶쓜폐킧뗄죋막늻쓜짏쫐쇷춨,횻쓜퓚뎡췢틔킭틩쫜죃뗄랽쪽붵뗍듺샭돉놾:쫗쿈,막샻횧뢶복짙쇋맜샭헟뛔ퟔ평죃룸램죋막뚫ꆣ컒맺맺폐막헦헽뗄막뚫쫇죋쏱,캯췐쿖뷰쇷솿뗄횧엤좨;웤듎,막샻랢럅뿉틔쪹뗃릫쮾쓚헾뢮탐쪹막좨,헾뢮엉돶듺뇭뷸죫짏쫐릫쮾뚭쫂믡듺늿놾쇴듦쫕틦뗄릩룸뗄뿉쓜풽킡,캪쇋릫쮾랢햹탨샭막좨,평폚죋쏱쎻쓜솦볠뚽헾뢮,탎돉쇋ꆰ쯹폐헟ꆱ튪,폐뇘튪뷸탐췢늿죚,틢캶ퟅ릫쮾붫뷓쫜룼뛠뗄좱캻,뛸쟒헾뢮뛔웤듺뇭뗄벤샸늻ퟣ,ퟮ뫳탎돉쇋볠뚽뫍볬닩ꆣClaireE1Crutchley뗈(1999\[2\])춬쪱붫엉ꆰ쓚늿죋뿘훆ꆱ,떼훂맺폐막좨뗄뛠훘듺샭컊쳢ꆣ릨뺧ꆢ쿖ꆢ뻙햮뺭펪ꆢ맜샭헟돖막ꆢ믺릹춶헟돖틲쯘막쓉쇵뫨퇣(2004\[3\])쪵횤퇐뺿쮵쏷맺폐막뇈샽풽듳,듺샭죫듺샭돉놾뗄럖컶뿲볜,쯻쏇죏캪볓죫믺릹춶헟쓜돉놾풽룟ꆣ슬죙ꆢ컢뿉4\](2003\[)죏캪뛔컒맺짏쫐릫쮾췪짆듺샭돉놾쒣탍,쯦ퟅ믺릹춶헟뛔릫쮾뗄춶뇈뗄듺샭돉놾럖컶,펦떱틔짧믡릫훚막ꆪꆪꆪ맺폐막ꆪꆪꆪ샽퓶듳,믡훷뚯볠뚽맜샭헟뺭펪쟩뿶,뿍맛짏뿉틔붵맜샭헟헢훖듺샭맘쾵뷸탐럖컶,뛸늻쓜틔컷랽맺볒틔[쫕룥죕웚]ꆡ2005ꆪ06ꆪ09[ퟷ헟볲뷩]ꆡ돂헱뮪(1981ꆪ),쓐,훘쟬뗦붭죋,쫽솿뺭볃톧쮶쪿퇐뺿짺,퇐뺿랽쿲:닆컱맜샭,막샻헾닟;십폀뾪(1963ꆪ),쓐,뢱풺뎤,뷌쫚ꆣꆪ64ꆪ
햮좨죋ꆪꆪꆪ막뚫ꆪꆪꆪ맜샭헟캪훐탄럖컶듺샭돉놾ꆣ쇭랢럅쿖뷰막샻폐뿉쓜퓶볓릫쮾뗄닆컱럧쿕,퓶볓웳튵튻훖캪듳막뚫폫킡막뚫뗄듺샭컊쳢:막좨뷡릹뗄맽뛈뗄웆닺돉놾ꆣ듺샭돉놾샭싛죏캪,뢺햮쫇뷢뻶ퟔ평쿖럖즢믡떼훂룷막뚫퓚볠뚽맜샭헟쪱믡돶쿖듮뇣뎵뗄컊뷰쇷컊쳢뗄쇭튻폐킧춾뺶ꆣ평폚뢺햮튪룹뻝뫏춬뷸탐쳢,듓뛸볓뻧막뚫폫맜샭헟횮볤뗄캯췐듺샭컊쳢ꆣ듳뮹놾뢶쾢,쟒뻟폐폅쿈좨,틲듋뢺햮뛔폚맜샭닣뛸퇔막뚫뗄뷩죫,뿉틔폐킧뿋럾막뚫폫맜샭헟횮볤뗄캯췐뇈쿖뷰막샻룼폐풼쫸쓜솦,쓜릻뛔맜샭닣웰떽룼뫃뗄듺샭컊쳢,뿘막막뚫폐ퟣ릻뛠뗄춶욱좨뛔맜샭헟쪩톹,볠뚽ퟷ폃,뢺햮뛔폚뷢뻶ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷컊쳢폫쿖뷰막샻짵훁뿉틔냕쏢뺭샭,듳막뚫룼폐뚯솦살쳡룟릫쮾뗄볛쫇튻훖쳦듺맘쾵ꆣ퓚듋,볙짨뢺햮싊폫쿖뷰막샻횧뢶횵,평듋뛸닺짺뗄룼뛠쿖뷰쇷쓜춬쯹폐막뚫릲쿭,헢뢺쿠맘ꆣ뻍닺짺쇋뿘훆좨릫릲쫕틦,듓뿍맛짏킡막뚫캯췐듳막볙짨3:맜샭헟돖막폫쿖뷰막샻캪럇쿟탔맘쾵ꆣ뚫뛔릫쮾맜샭닣뷸탐볠뚽,뷸뛸폫듳막뚫럖쿭릫릲쫕맜샭헟돖막훷튪폃폚벤샸맜샭닣,쪹뗃맜샭닣쿲막뚫틦ꆣLaPorta뗈5\](1999\[)퇐뺿뇭쏷,퓚뫜뛠맺볒뗄짏샻틦ퟮ듳뮯뗄랽쿲얬솦,붫맜샭헟ퟔ짭샻틦폫막뚫뗄쫐릫쮾훐,ퟮ훷튪뗄듺샭컊쳢늻쫇막뚫폫맜샭헟뗄돥샻틦솪쾵웰살,뷸뛸복짙맜샭헟폫막뚫뗄듺샭돥춻ꆣ춻,뛸쫇듳막뚫폫킡막뚫뗄듺샭컊쳢ꆣJohson뗈McConnell뫍S]ervaes(1990\[9\)퇐뺿죏캪듺샭돉놾튲믡[6\](2000\)쮵쏷쇋뿘막막뚫늻떫폐잿쇒뗄쒱좡쮽폐샻틦쯦ퟅ맜샭헟돖막뇈샽퓶볓뛸붵뗍,떫쯦ퟅ돖막뇈샽퓶뗄욫뫃뛸쟒폐쓜솦쟖햼릫쮾뗄풴,쯰몦훐킡춶뗄볓떽튻뚨돌뛈믡쪹맜샭헟뒦폚럇뎣샎만뗄뗘캻,듺샭샻틦ꆣ퓚좱랦췢늿볠뚽믲헟췢늿막뚫럖즢뮯뗄쟩뿶쿂,돉놾쯦ퟅ맜샭헟돖막뇈샽퓶볓뛸퓶볓,맜샭헟뿘훆샭뿘막막뚫뿉쓜틔컾짼킡막뚫뗄샻틦살ힷ쟳ퟔ짭뗄샻틦,싛죏캪듺샭돉놾폫맜샭헟돖막튲쫇럇쿟탔맘쾵ꆣ쇎샭뇈죧횤좯믘릺ꆢ닺틆뷸탐쓚늿붻틗뗈,돆웤캪쯭뗈0\](2004\[1)퓋폃뛠풪믘맩랢쿖맜샭닣돖막폫막샻횧뗀닟싔(tunneling)ꆣ튶뾵쳎(2003\[7\])춨맽럖컶컒맺짏뢶듦퓚럇쿟탔맘쾵,맜샭헟돖막뛔폚룟듺샭돉놾릫쮾쫐릫쮾럇쇷춨막죃붻틗,퇐뺿뇭쏷컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뿘뗄쿖뷰막샻횧뢶폐쏷쿔뗄쳡룟ퟷ폃ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇쳡돶훆좨뻟폐틾탔쫕틦,쟒쫕틦쮮욽캪쇷춨막쫐볛뗄4%,볙짨3ꆣ쿠떱폚럇뿘막막뚫뗄럇쇷춨막죃볛룱뗄28%,릫쮾볙짨4:맺볒막폫램죋막뇈샽풽듳,쿖뷰막샻뗄뿘막막뚫뛔릫쮾뗄뿘훆솦풽잿,뿘막막뚫뗄틾탔쫕횧뢶풽룟ꆣ훐맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄ퟮ듳쳘헷횮튻뻍쫇럇쇷춨틦풽듳,쟒햮컱릤뻟늢럇뷢뻶컒맺릫쮾뿘훆좨틾탔쫕막폫쇷춨막뗄췪좫럖룮,쟒쇷춨막햼ퟜ막럝뗄뇈샽뷏틦컊쳢뗄폐킧쫖뛎;뗋붨욽ꆢ퓸폂(2004\[8\])쪵횤퇐뺿뗍,쇷춨막폫럇쇷춨막뗄춶돉놾쫇늻튻퇹뗄,쇷춨뇭쏷컒맺뗄뿘훆좨쮽죋쫕틦풼캪17%,뿘훆좨솦듳킡막뗄릺싲돉놾튻냣쫇럇쇷춨막뗄쫽쪮놶,떫쫇솽헟퓚뫍뿘막막좨죃틧볛듦퓚헽쿠맘맘쾵;햮컱뗄잿훆탔릫쮾쪣폠쯷좡좨쫇쿠춬뗄,쯹캽ꆰ춬막늻춬좨ꆱꆣ펦햹풼쫸솦뛔폚틖훆뿘훆좨쮽죋샻틦폐튻뚨ퟷ폃ꆣ뿉볻,폮뗈\[11\]춨맽막좨벤샸쒣탍쮵쏷막좨럖쇑쿂,늻춬뗄춶뿘훆좨뗄듳킡쿔훸펰쿬듳막뚫뗄쮽폐쫕틦뛠짙ꆣ헟뗄춶쫕틦싊닮뇰뫜듳,럇쇷춨막뚫뗄춶쫕틦쒿잰컒맺뗄컄쿗훐뛔막샻뗄듺샭샭싛퇐뺿뗄뷏짙,싊튪풶풶룟폚쇷춨막막뚫,춬퇹뗄쿖뷰럖뫬,쇷춨막뛔폚듺샭컊쳢뗄쪵횤볬퇩튲쿠뛔뷏짙,횧뢶막샻쓜럱막뚫뗄춶믘놨싊뿉쓜횻폐럇쇷춨막막뚫뗄벸쪮럖횮붵뗍컒맺짏쫐릫쮾쓚늿뗄듺샭돉놾컊쳢,놾컄닉폃뛠튻ꆣ캺룕[12\](2001\)퓋폃뛠풪믘맩램,횤쏷쇋맺볒막뫍풪믘맩랽램뛔듋컊쳢뷸탐쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ램죋막막뚫욫뫃쿖뷰막샻ꆣ평폚컒맺뗄횤좯쫐뎡춶믺뛾ꆢ퇐뺿볙짨탔뫜훘,훐킡춶헟룼욫뫃막욱막샻,뛸늻쾲뮶ꆰ쎫볙짨1:ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷풽룟,쿖뷰막샻횧뢶풽룟ꆣ쎫폪ꆱ쯆뗄쿖뷰럖뫬,맺볒막폫램죋막늻쇷춨,춶ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷(freecashflow)쫇횸릫쮾싺ퟣ쯹폐헽뺻쿖헟늻쓜듓막욱틧볛훐믱뗃뫃뒦,쿖뷰막샻컞틉돉캪럇횵(NPV)쿮쒿쯹탨뷰뫳쪣폠뗄쿖뷰쇷ꆣ듺샭샭싛쇷춨막뚫ꆰ좦잮ꆱ뗄릤뻟ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇볙짨맺볒막ꆢ죏캪,평폚맜샭헟뫍릫쮾뗄막뚫뗄샻틦몯쫽늻춬,맜램죋막뇈샽폫쿖뷰막샻헽쿠맘ꆣ샭헟뿘훆뗄ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷풽뛠,캪쇋ힷ쟳웤쮽폐샻틦뗄볙짨5:듳막뚫뗄뿘훆솦폫쿖뷰막샻횧뢶뢺쿠ퟮ듳뮯,풽죝틗떼훂맜샭닣춶맽뛈틔벰퓚횰룟쿻럑맘ꆣ퓧웚퓋폃듺샭샭싛뷢쫍막샻헾닟뗄퇐뺿듳뛠틔쏀컊쳢,듓뛸쟖몦쇋막뚫뗄샻틦ꆣ막샻횧뢶뿉틔복짙ퟔ맺짏쫐릫쮾캪퇐뺿뛔쿳,헢킩퇐뺿춨뎣퓚맜샭헟폫막평쿖뷰쇷,복짙웤볠뚽돉놾,쫇붵뗍막뚫폫맜샭헟횮뚫뗄듺샭샭싛뿲볜쓚뷸탐ꆣLaPorta뗈\](2000\[4)싊쿈볤듺샭돉놾폐킧쫖뛎ꆣ맊컒쏇볙짨ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷풽룟,퓚뿘막막뚫폫킡막뚫뗄듺샭샭싛뿲볜쓚럖컶막샻헾닟ꆣ쿖뷰막샻횧뢶싊풽룟,쿖뷰막샻폫ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷헽쿠맘ꆣ쯻쏇퓚뛔평33룶맺볒뗄4000볒릫쮾ퟩ돉뗄퇹놾뷸탐볙짨2:뢺햮싊풽룟,쿖뷰막샻횧뢶풽뗍ꆣ릫쮾쇋럖컶틔뫳랢쿖,뛔막뚫놣뮤뷏뫃뗄웕춨램쾵맺볒,뗄뢺햮쓜솦쫇펰쿬랢럅쿖뷰막샻뗄튻룶틲쯘ꆣ릫쮾뗄릫쮾뗄막샻횧뢶싊룟폚듳슽램쾵맺볒ꆣ죧맻릫쮾폐뫃햮컱뢺떣풽훘,풽쟣쿲풽랢럅막욱막샻뛸쇴듦쫜틦폃뗄춶쿮쒿,쫜떽램싉놣뮤뗄막뚫뻍풸틢췆동믱뗃막폚룄짆릫쮾뗄닆컱ힴ뿶,뇜쏢닆컱뷡릹뗄뷸튻늽뛱뮯,샻ꆣ쿠랴,죧맻좱랦램싉놣뮤,쓇쎴막뚫뻍폐뿉쓜늻ꆪ65ꆪ
뾼싇춶믺믡,뛸쓾풸뺡퓧믱뗃막샻ꆣ헢뻍쫇킡막뚫뫢솿짏쫐릫쮾뗄뿘훆솦듦퓚늻ퟣꆣ놾싛컄폃Shapley좨좱랦램싉놣뮤뛸떼훂뗄듺샭돉놾ꆣ퓚튻룶폐킧뗄쳥훆솦횸쫽횸뇪뷸탐뫢솿듳막뚫뗄쮽폐쫕틦ꆣ샽죧:죴뿘쿂,킡막뚫쓜퓋폃램싉뢳폨뗄좨샻웈쪹릫쮾횧뢶막샻,막막뚫펵폐짏쫐릫쮾51%뗄막좨,퓲뿘막막뚫뛔짏쫐헢퇹뿉틔쿞훆릫쮾쓚늿죋붫릫쮾샻죳폃살쒱좡쮽샻ꆣ릫쮾뗄뿘훆돌뛈펦룃쫇100%,뛸늻쫇횻폐51%ꆣ웤췪짆뗄막뚫놣뮤램싉쓜쳡룟쓚늿죋틆릫쮾닺뗄럧쯻막뚫쯤펵폐룃릫쮾49%뗄막좨,떫웤좨솦좴쫇쇣,쿕뫍돉놾ꆣ헢퇹,킡막뚫뗄좨샻풽듳,쯻쏇틔막샻뗄헢튲뻍쮵쏷돖막뇈샽폫뿘훆솦횮볤폐쒳훖헽쿠맘맘쾵,탎쪽믱뗃뗄쫕틦튲뻍풽룟];커쿾뒺(2003\[13\)죏캪컒떫튲쫇튻훖뇈뷏뢴퓓뗄럇쿟탎맘쾵ꆣ틔쿂쫇Shapley좨맺짏쫐릫쮾뗄뗚튻듳막뚫춨뎣햼뻝뚭쫂믡뗄듳뛠쫽쾯솦횸쫽닢쯣랽램죧쿂:캻,쯹틔쓜뫜뫃뗄뿘훆뚭쫂믡,좻뫳춨맽뚭쫂믡뿘훆뺭샭뗄죎쏼,뷸뛸뿘훆릫쮾뗄뺭펪뫍맜샭ꆣ퓚듳막뚫떱V2V1CꇁVSO>ꆡ;=2V3;O뛔릫쮾뺭샭뗄뿘훆뫜잿쪱,듳막뚫ힷ쟳뗄쫇릫쮾뗄뺭2떱V1(1-2VS)Cꇜ,V;=펪뫍뎤웚랢햹폫뿘훆좨쫕틦,랢럅쿖뷰막샻뿉쓜횻쫇2Sꇜ1,V2Oꇜ1ꆡ24V2;O듳막뚫믱뗃릫릲쫕틦뗄튻훖쫖뛎ꆣ쯹틔,컒쏇쳡돶볙떱V1C>ꆡ;=1ꆣ짨25ꆣ웤훐:;뇭쪾뿘막막뚫뗄뿘훆솦;VC캪뿘막막뚫뗄돖죽ꆢ퇐뺿짨볆막뇈샽;VS캪뗚뛾듳막뚫뗄돖막뇈샽;VO캪돽뗚튻뫍(튻)퇹놾톡좡뗚뛾막뚫췢웤쯻막뚫돖막뇈샽뫍ꆣ놾컄톡좡2004쓪뛈퓚뮦짮솽쫐뒿엉쿖짏쫐릫쮾쯄ꆢ춳볆뷡맻폫럖컶541볒,(1)평폚ST뫍PT짏쫐릫쮾쓪쓪뿷쯰,쫴폚(튻)퇹놾뗄쏨쫶탔춳볆(볻뇭1)럇헽뎣뗄닆컱ힴ뿶,쟒헢킩릫쮾엉쿖뫜짙,쳞돽헢킩쫽뻝뛔퇐뺿뷡싛펰쿬늻듳,틲듋폨틔쳞돽;(2)짏쫐ꆡꆡ뇭1퇹놾쏨쫶탔춳볆릫쮾훐캪쇋듯떽퓙죚쳵볾뛸뷸탐ꆰ쎫쎫폪ꆱ쯆뗄럖뇤솿탔훊뇤솿쏻돆뇤솿뚨틥뫬,듋샠릫쮾헦헽쒿뗄뿉쓜쫇캪쇋릫쮾뗄퓙죚,폨틔쳞돽;헢샯컒쏇냑쎿막엉쿖뗍폚틲뇤솿쎿막쿖뷰막샻(CD)쿖뷰막샻/ퟜ막놾0105풪뗄릫쮾쳞돽,틲캪퓚뷉쓉쇋ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷(FC)쎿막뺻펪퓋쿖뷰쇷20%뗄룶죋쯹뗃쮰뫍붻틗럑폃틔뫳,춶헟믱뗃뗄쿖뷰뫜짙,벸뫵뿉틔뫶싔늻볆;(3)튻뢺햮쓜솦(DA)뢺햮싊=뢺햮/ퟜ닺킩짏쫐릫쮾럖뫬뇈샽룟폚릫쮾펯샻믲헟쿖뷰쇷솿,튻냣죏캪쫴ꆰ뛱탔럖뫬ꆱ뷢맜샭헟돖막(M맜샭닣돖막쫽솿anage)쫍/ퟜ막놾,튻냣죏캪쎿막엉쿖듳폚쎿막쫕틦뫍쎿막뺭펪쿖뷰쇷뗄짏쫐릫쮾쫴폚뎬쓜솦엉쿖릫쮾,뇤맺볒막뇈샽(State)맺볒막/ퟜ막놾뎬쓜솦엉쿖쫆뇘룸릫쮾뗄돖탸뺭펪듸살늻샻펰쿬,쯹솿램죋막뇈샽(Corpor)램죋막/ퟜ막놾틔폨틔쳞돽ꆣ뺭맽즸톡,ퟮ뫳톡좡퇐뺿퇹놾300볒ꆣퟜ막놾(Capital)ퟜ막놾뗄뎣폃뛔쫽웤훐짮쫐93볒,짏쫐207볒ꆣ쫽뻝살풴:훐맺횤좯췸뿘훆솦좨솦횸쫽(http://www1cnstock1com);췸틗쫽뻝뿢(http://(Shaply횸쫽;)gp1stock11631com),춳볆릤뻟캪SPSS1010춳볆죭볾ꆣ퇹놾쫽ퟮ킡횵ퟮ듳횵뻹횵뇪ힼ닮(뛾)뇤솿톡좡짏쫐릫쮾뗄뗚튻듳막뚫튻냣펵폐뻸뛔뿘훆좨,쟒CD3000106016011686010949듳막뚫뗄막욱벸뫵좫캪럇쇷춨막,쇷춨막쿠뛔럇쇷춨FC30001097131017207016440막뻟폐뷏룟뗄쇷뚯탔틧볛,춨맽릫뾪쫐뎡싲싴쇷춨막DA300010330019703014331011770믱뗃릫쮾뗄뿘훆좨듺볛뷏룟,틲듋춶ퟅ믱뗃릫쮾뿘Manage30000100550010004훆좨뗄캨튻춾뺶,횻쓜쫇쫕릺듳막뚫뗄뿘막막럝ꆣ퓚State3000018499014397012525컒맺,죧맻릫쮾뗄튵벨뷏뫃,뿘막막뚫쫇늻풸틢붫릫쮾뗄뿘훆좨붻돶뗄,뛸쟒탂뿘훆랽죫훷릫쮾뗄훷튪쒿Corpor3000018000011514012120뗄쫇캪쇋ꆰ싲뿇짏쫐ꆱ,쯹틔ST릫쮾죝틗놻쫕릺뗄캣Capital300317090619380415802014538쿕룼듳ꆣ놾싛컄퇐뺿뗄쫇럇ST뗄릫쮾뗄듺샭돉놾폫막Shapely3000100031015771014179샻럖엤뗄컊쳢,틲캪ST릫쮾뗄막샻헾닟쫇럇헽뎣뗄,폃쫕릺틧볛살뫢솿듳막뚫뗄쮽폐쫕틦떼훂쫽뻝좱쯰ꆣ(뛾)뷢쫍뇤솿쿠맘탔럖컶맺쓚췢뗄듳솿컄쿗쪵횤횤쏷,듳막뚫쮽폐쫕틦폫뿘막놾컄퓋폃뛠풪믘맩쒣탍뷸탐퇐뺿,탨볬퇩쒣탍룷막뚫뛔릫쮾뗄뿘훆솦헽쿠맘,튻냣살쮵,막뚫돖막뇈룶뷢쫍뇤솿쫇럱듦퓚릲쿟탔컊쳢,뛔ퟔ뇤솿뷸탐쿠맘샽쓜랴펳막뚫뛔짏쫐릫쮾뗄뿘훆돌뛈,떫폃돖막뇈샽탔럖컶,샻폃랽닮엲헍틲ퟓ(VIF)볬퇩,랽닮엲헍틲ꆪ66ꆪ
ퟓ(variance2inflatingfactor,볲돆VIF)뇭쪾쯹뛔펦뗄엉쿖믡룸뢺햮싊뷏룟뗄짏쫐릫쮾듸살튻뚨뗄웆닺럧쿕;욫믘맩쾵쫽평폚뛠훘릲쿟탔뛸삩듳뗄놶쫽ꆣ웤뇭듯쪽쇭튻랽쏦,햮좨죋돶폚ퟔ벺샻틦뗄뾼싇,뢺햮뿉틔뛔캪:맜샭헟뗄뺭펪뫍춶믮뚯뷸탐튻뚨뗄쿞훆,듓뛸붵뗍막뚫뛔맜샭헟뗄볠뚽돉놾ꆣ막놾맦쒣퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏훆V1IF=1-R2,R캪ퟔ뇤솿뗄쿠맘쾵쫽ꆣ풼ퟅ막샻럖엤탎쪽,늢폫막샻횧뢶싊헽쿠맘ꆣ평폚듳튻냣죏캪VIF늻뎬맽10,룃뇤솿폫웤쯻뇤솿횮볤막놾짏쫐릫쮾뗄삩헅뿕볤킡,틲뛸릫쮾쟣쿲폚닉폃쿖뗄뛠훘릲쿟탔퓚퓊탭뷧쿞횮쓚,듓뇭2훐뿉틔뗃돶,뷰막샻탎쪽,막샻횧뢶싊튲뷏룟,틔컼틽룼뛠춶헟;VIF뻹킡폚10ꆣ틲듋뿉틔죏캪쒣탍늻듦퓚퇏훘뗄릲쿟킡엌막뻟폐뷏잿뗄막놾삩헅쓜솦,틲뛸릫쮾룼쟠막탔ꆣ욱막샻탎쪽,막샻횧뢶싊튲뷏뗍ꆣ웤쯻벸룶틲쯘,죧맜샭헟돖막ꆢ맺폐막뇈샽ꆢ램죋돖막뇈샽ꆢ틔벰릫쮾ꆡꆡ뇭2ퟔ쿠맘쾵쫽뇭뿘훆솦ꆢ막좨뷡릹뛔엉쿖펰쿬늻쿔훸,컒쏇죏캪훷튪FCDAManageStateCorporCapitalShape풭틲쫇:맜샭헟돖막솿첫뗍,뛔붵뗍듺샭돉놾벸뫵쎻ly폐펰쿬;맺쓚췢톧헟퇐뺿횤쏷,막좨뗄룟뛈뿘훆폫룟FC1-0103645416070013150-013732011909010677뛈럖즢뚼뿉쓜믡닺짺퇏훘뗄듺샭컊쳢:막좨맽폚벯훐DA1-1311427010745-010690010639010312Mퟮ뿉쓜닺짺듳막뚫폫킡막뚫횮볤뗄듺샭컊쳢,퓚램싉anage1-010002010002-519900312475쳥쾵늻췪놸뗄쟩뿶쿂,듳막뚫폐잿쇒뗄쒱쟳쮽샻뗄욫State1-018772012091012547뫃쟒폐쓜솦춨맽룷훖쫖뛎쟖몦킡막뚫뗄샻틦;퓚막좨Corpor1-011395-011095맽폚럖즢뗄놾쫐뎡,떥룶막뚫튪돐떣좫늿뗄볠뚽돉Capital1012068놾,쟒볠뚽돉놾폫믱좡뗄쫕틦늻쿠럻,틲듋ꆰ폃쫖춶Shapely1욱ꆱ뛔맜샭헟횱뷓뷸탐볠뚽쫇늻뿉쓜뗄,듳뛠쫽막뚫붫믡닉좡ꆰ듮뇣뎵ꆱ뗄랽쪽,헢퇹맜샭헟믡닉좡뛔ퟔ(죽)쒣탍벰믘맩뷡맻벺폐샻뗄랽쪽뷸탐뻶닟,듓뛸쟖몦막뚫뗄샻틦ꆣ틲듋,룹뻝잰쏦뗄샭싛럖컶컒쏇죏캪듺샭돉놾폫막좨뷡릹늻쫇쿟탔맘쾵,뛸쫇뛾,컒쏇붨솢쿂쇐믘맩쒣탍1:CD=ꛂ+ꛂ1FC+ꛂ2DA+ꛂ3Manage+ꛂ4State+듎뛠쿮쪽뗄맘쾵ꆣ뻝듋컒쏇붨솢쒣탍2:ꛂCD=ꛂ+ꛂ1FC+ꛂ2DA+ꛂ3Manage+ꛂ4Manag2e+5Corpor+ꛂ6Capital+ꛂ7Shapely+ꛅ뛔짏쫶쒣탍뷸탐믘맩,뷡맻죧뇭ꛂ35State+ꛂ6Sta2te+ꛂ7Corpor+ꛂ8Corpo2r+:ꛂ9Capital+ꛂ10Shapely+ꛅꆡꆡ뇭3쒣탍1뗄맀볆뛔쒣탍2뷸탐믘맩,뷡맻죧뇭4:ꛂStd1errorTsigꆡꆡ뇭4쒣탍2뗄맀볆CONSTANT0111560106011933010542ꛂStd1errorTSigFC0134120100951737010005333CONSTANT011421011111128001201DA-01201001032-31358010008333FC0133160100951538010006333Manage0100461310901083019340DA-01189301032-31141010002333State0102880104501243018079Manage-010330281513-01273017849Corpor0101310104701124019013Manag2e01050670105101420016745Capital01024901012214180106753State-014183601097-11685010933Shapely0104910101601709014795S2tate01463001116210470104233ꆡꆡ힢:뗷헻뗄R2=01362;Corpor-01213401108-01886-01376333뇭쪾퓚1%쿂쿔훸,3뇭쪾퓚10%쿂쿔훸ꆣCorpo2r01252801109211370102533듓짏뇭뿉틔뾴돶ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷ꆢ뢺햮싊뫍막놾맦쒣Capital01008501014211290108633뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖펰쿬쿔훸,럻뫏짏쫶볙짨ꆣ짏쫐릫쮾Shapely0105930101701808014199춨맽막샻랢럅복짙맜샭헟뿘훆뗄ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷,복짙맜ꆡꆡ힢:뗷헻뗄R2=01379;샭헟뛔막뚫샻틦뗄쟖몦;춬쪱,뢺햮ퟷ캪쿖뷰막샻뗄333뇭쪾퓚1%쿂쿔훸,33뇭쪾퓚5%쿂쿔훸,튻훖쳦듺랽쪽,튲뿉틔붵뗍막뚫폫맜샭헟횮볤뗄듺샭3뇭쪾퓚10%쿂쿔훸ꆣ돉놾:튻랽쏦,평폚폐횧뢶샻쾢뫍뎥뮹햮컱뗄톹솦,ꆪ67ꆪ
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