뗚8웚(ퟜ뗚273웚)닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿2006쓪8퓂ResearchonFinancialandEꆡꆡꆡNumber8(GeneralSerialNo1273)conomicIssuesAugust,2006ꆤ샭싛퇐뺿ꆤ뺭볃퓶뎤폫뮷뺳컛좾ꆪꆪꆪ뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟볙쮵뗄훐맺볬퇩ꋙ역쮮뻼,냼ꆡ좺(쓏뾪듳톧뺭볃톧풺,쳬뷲ꆡ300071)햪ꆡ튪:놾컄퓋폃1996ꆪ2002쓪컒맺쪡볊쏦냥쫽뻝,뛔컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤폫냼삨쮮컛좾ꆢ듳웸컛좾폫만쳥컛좾업럅퓚쓚뗄6샠뮷뺳컛좾횸뇪횮볤뗄맘쾵뷸탐쇋쪵횤볬퇩ꆣ쪵횤뷡맻랢쿖,뮷뺳뿢쓹듄떹U탍쟺쿟맘쾵뫜듳돌뛈짏좡뻶폚컛좾횸뇪틔벰맀볆랽램뗄톡좡ꆣ뻍놾컄톡좡뗄늿럖컛좾횸뇪(릤튵럏쮮업럅ꆢ뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅)뛸퇔,튲듦퓚틔쿠뛔뗍뗄죋뻹쫕죫쮮욽풽맽뮷뺳떹U탍쟺쿟헛뗣뗄뿉쓜ꆣ늢쟒,냼삨죋뿚맦쒣ꆢ벼쫵뷸늽ꆢ뮷놣헾닟ꆢ쎳틗뾪럅틔벰닺튵뷡릹뗷헻뗈퓚쓚뗄컛좾뿘훆뇤솿럖뇰뛔뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟맘쾵웰ퟅ훘튪펰쿬ꆣ맘볼듊:뺭볃퓶뎤;컛좾업럅;뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟(EKC);쏦냥쫽뻝맀볆훐춼럖샠뫅:F06112;F12014ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:ꆡAꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:10002176X(2006)0820003215튻ꆢ틽퇔룄룯뾪럅틔살컒맺뺭볃뺭샺쇋튻룶돖탸뗄룟쯙퓶뎤뷗뛎,좻뛸뿬쯙뗄뺭볃퓶뎤늻뿉뇜쏢뗘볓뻧쇋뛔풴쿻뫄ꆢ뮷뺳놣뮤뗄톹솦,짺첬뮷뺳뛱뮯폫뺭볃랢햹횮볤뗄솽쓑돥춻틑뺭죕틦쫜떽맘힢ꆣ쫂쪵짏,헽죧듳뛠쫽랢햹훐맺볒벰탂탋릤튵뮯맺볒뗄랢햹쪵볹쯹뇭쏷뗄,뮷뺳뛱뮯ꆢ풴뫄뷟쫇뺭볃웰량뷗뛎쯹쏦쇙뗄훘튪쓑쳢:튻랽쏦평폚뛔ퟔ좻풴뗄뾪닉샻폃ꆢ릤튵컛좾컯업럅뗄늻뛏퓶볓,뺭볃퓶뎤떼훂쇋뮷뺳훊솿쿂붵뗄뢺쏦킧펦;쇭튻랽쏦풴뗄뿉뫄뷟탔ꆢ뮷뺳췋뮯랴맽살튲틖훆쇋뺭볃뗄뎤웚돖탸퓶뎤ꆣ샽죧,퓧퓚20쫀볍70쓪듺돵웚훸쏻뗄싞십뻣샖늿뻍틑쳡돶쇋ꆰ퓶뎤벫쿞쮵ꆱ[1],벴죏캪뺭볃퓶뎤쫜뿉샻폃ퟔ좻풴뗄훆풼뛸늻뿉뎤웚돖탸,틲뛸캪쇋듯떽놣뮤뮷뺳풴뗄쒿뗄뇘탫죋캪뗘붵뗍뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆣ좻뛸,튲폐톧헟뛔ꆰ뺭볃랢햹뇘좻떼훂뮷뺳뛱뮯ꆱ뗄짏쫶맛뗣쳡돶훊틉,샽죧Beckerm[2]an,Bhaga2w[3][4]ati뗈죏캪듙뷸뺭볃랢햹놾짭뻍쫇놣뮤뮷뺳풴뗄폐킧쫖뛎ꆣ뷨본Kuznets맘폚쫕죫럖엤폫뺭볃랢햹횮볤뗄훸쏻ꆰ떹U탍쟺쿟ꆱ싛쫶,헢킩톧헟횸돶뺭볃랢햹폫뮷뺳훊솿횮볤튲뿉쓜듦퓚떹U탍쟺쿟맘쾵,벴퓚뺭볃랢햹돵웚뷗뛎뺭볃퓶뎤ꆢ죋뻹쫕죫뗄쳡룟붫믡떼훂뮷뺳훊솿뗄쿂붵,좻뛸튻떩뺭볃랢햹뎬풽쇋쒳튻쇙뷧횵뗣,죋뻹쫕죫뗄뷸튻늽쳡룟랴뛸믡폐훺폚붵뗍뮷뺳컛좾ꆢ룄짆뮷뺳훊솿ꆣ쫜헢튻맛뗣웴랢,듳솿톧헟퓋폃룷맺뷘쏦ꆢ쪱탲믲헟쏦냥쫽뻝,뛔쫇럱듦퓚뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟(EnvironmentalKuznetsCurve,EKC)뷸탐쇋맣랺퇐뺿ꆣG[5]rossmanandKrueger퓚럖컶놱쏀ퟔ평쎳틗쟸킭틩(NAFTA)뗄뮷뺳킧펦쪱,쫗듎쪵횤뾼달쇋뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫떹U탍맘쾵뗄듦퓚ꆣ퓚헢욪펰쿬짮풶뗄컄쿗훐,GrossmanandKrueger듓뺭볃퓶뎤펰쿬뮷뺳훊솿뗄죽쳵ퟷ폃쟾뗀살뷢쫍EKC뗄돶쿖:뺭볃랢햹틢캶ퟅ룼듳맦쒣뗄뺭볃믮뚯폫풴탨쟳솿,틲뛸뛔뮷ꋙ쫕룥죕웚:2006204208믹뷰쿮쒿:맺볒짧믡뿆톧믹뷰훘뗣쿮쒿(04AJL006);훐맺늩쪿뫳뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿(2005038462)ퟷ헟볲뷩:역쮮뻼(1975-),쓐,뫾쓏퓀퇴죋,뺭볃톧늩쪿,쓏뾪듳톧뺭볃톧풺늩쪿뫳,훷튪듓쫂맺볊쎳틗ꆢFDI폫뺭볃퓶뎤틔벰뮷뺳ꆢ풴뺭볃톧뗈쇬폲뗄퇐뺿ꆣ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
4닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆡꆡ2006쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆡퟜ뗚273웚뺳닺짺뢺뗄맦쒣킧펦;떫춬쪱뺭볃랢햹폖춨맽헽뗄벼쫵뷸늽(샽죧룼캪뮷놣뗄탂벼쫵뗄쪹폃)킧펦틔벰뷡릹킧펦(샽죧닺튵뷡릹뗄짽벶폫폅뮯)복짙쇋컛좾업럅ꆢ룄짆쇋뮷뺳훊솿ꆣ틲듋,헢죽샠킧펦릲춬뻶뚨쇋뺭볃랢햹폫뮷뺳훊솿횮볤뗄헢튻떹U탍쟺쿟맘쾵ꆣ퓚GrossmanandKrueger횮뫳,훚뛠컄쿗뚼뛔뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫횮볤뗄맘쾵뷸탐쇋뷸튻늽볬퇩,폐맘헢랽쏦퇐뺿뗄컄쿗ퟛ쫶뿉볻S[6]ternꆢP[7]anayotou틔벰D[8]inda뗈ꆣ놾컄퓲샻폃컒맺1996ꆪ2002쓪30룶쪡ꆢ쫐ꆢퟔ훎쟸뗄쏦냥쫽뻝뛔뺭볃랢햹ꆪ뮷뺳컛좾횮볤뗄맘쾵뷸탐쪵횤볬퇩ꆣ맺췢듳뛠쫽톧헟샻폃룷맺뫡뷘쏦쫽뻝횤쪵쇋EKC뗄듦퓚,놾컄닉폃쏦냥쫽뻝뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뿉틔춬쪱랴펳돶뺭볃퓶뎤ꆪ뮷뺳컛좾맘쾵퓚늻춬뺭볃쟸폲틔벰늻춬랢햹뷗뛎뗄닮틬ꋙꆣ웤듎,놾컄럖뇰닉폃뛈솿뮷뺳컛좾뗄6샠횸뇪살뾼달뺭볃랢햹뛔뮷뺳뇤뮯뗄펰쿬킧펦ꆣ틲듋,춨맽뇈뷏늻춬뮷뺳컛좾뛈솿횸뇪폫뺭볃랢햹뗄맘쾵닮틬,컒쏇뿉틔에뛏뮷뺳컛좾뛈솿횸뇪톡좡뗄닮틬뛔EKC뗄펰쿬ꆣퟮ뫳,놾컄뷸튻늽훘뗣뾼달쇋냼삨죋뿚맦쒣ꆢ벼쫵뷸늽ꆢ뮷놣헾닟ꆢ쎳틗뾪럅틔벰닺튵뷡릹뗷헻뗈퓚쓚뗄컛좾뿘훆뇤솿뛔EKC뗄펰쿬,뷼뛸뿉틔볬퇩뺭볃퓶뎤ꆪ뮷뺳훊솿뗄맘쾵쫇럱틲헾뢮뮷놣헾닟ꆢ벼쫵뷸늽ꆢ쎳틗뾪럅뛈뗈틲쯘뗄룄뇤뛸랢짺뇤뮯ꆣ뛾ꆢ쫽뻝살풴벰쪵횤랽램(튻)뇤솿톡좡뫍쫽뻝살풴놾컄퓚쪵횤럖컶훐닉폃춬쪱냼삨뷘쏦쫽뻝(룷쪡럝)뫍쪱탲쫽뻝뗄쏦냥쫽뻝(paneldata),풭틲훷튪폐솽뗣:뗚튻,뻍퇹놾쫽뻝솿뛸퇔,쏦냥쫽뻝냼몬뷏뛠쫽뻝뗣,틲뛸듸살뷏듳뗄ퟔ평뛈,뛸쟒뷘쏦뇤솿뫍쪱탲뇤솿뗄뷡뫏탅쾢쓜릻쿔훸뗘복짙좱쪡뇤솿듸살뗄컊쳢ꆣ뗚뛾,룼캪훘튪뗄쫇,헽죧튻킩ퟷ헟쯹횸돶뗄(D[8]inda),뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫EKC탎ힴ늻뷶뻟폐쪱탲캬뛈쳘헷,춬쪱튲뻟폐뷘쏦캬뛈뗄쳘헷,벴늻뷶떥룶맺볒뗄뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵붫쯦ퟅ뺭볃랢햹쮮욽뗄뇤뮯뛸룄뇤ꋚ,뛸쟒늻춬랢햹쮮욽맺볒뗄뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵튲듦퓚떹U탍닮틬ꆣ틲듋,뷡뫏쇋쪱탲뫍뷘쏦솽캬탅쾢뗄쏦냥쫽뻝쓜릻랴펳돶쫕죫쮮욽뇤뮯뫍뗘쟸랢햹닮틬뛔뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵뗄ퟛ뫏펰쿬ꆣ룹뻝쫽뻝뗄뿉믱뗃탔,놾컄쏦냥쫽뻝냼삨돽컷님ퟔ훎쟸횮췢뗄30룶뗘쟸퓚1996ꆪ2002쓪뗄풭쪼쫽뻝,틲캪컷님ퟔ훎쟸뗄늿럖횸뇪쓑틔믱뗃풭쪼쫽뻝ꆣ퓚퇐뺿뮷뺳훊솿폫쫕죫뇤뮯맘쾵뗄쪵횤컄쿗훐,뷏뛠뗘닉폃틔쿂3샠뇤솿살뛈솿뮷뺳훊솿:컛좾벯훐뛈(뿕웸훊솿ꆢ쮮풴훊솿뗈);컛좾컯업럅솿;풴뾪닉솿ꆣ뾼싇떽쫽뻝뗄뿉믱뗃탔,놾컄닉폃컛좾컯업럅솿횸뇪살뛈솿뮷뺳컛좾돌뛈폫뮷뺳훊솿,웤훐컛좾업럅컯폖뿉럖캪죽샠:웸쳥컛좾업럅컯ꆢ튺쳥컛좾업럅컯틔벰만쳥럏웺컯ꆣ룹뻝쫽뻝뿉믱뗃탔,놾컄쯹톡좡뗄컛좾업럅컯뇤솿냼삨틔쿂6샠횸뇪(볻뇭1),쫽뻝살풴평쿠펦룷웚ꆶ훐맺뮷뺳쓪본ꆷ폫ꆶ좫맺뮷뺳춳볆릫놨ꆷ헻샭벰볆쯣뛸뗃ꆣ탨튪쮵쏷뗄쫇,평폚맺볒ꆰ쪮컥ꆱ뮷놣춳볆놨뇭훆뛈뗄쪵탐,1996ꆪ1997쓪뗄컛좾쫽뻝쫇내헕18룶릤튵탐튵럖샠춳볆,1998ꆪ2002쓪뗄컛좾쫽뻝쫇룹뻝43룶릤튵탐튵뷸탐럖샠춳볆ꆣ뇭1룷샠컛좾업럅컯쏻돆ꆢ떥캻벰뇭쪾럻뫅컛좾업럅컯쏻돆떥ꆡ캻놾컄닉폃볇뫅1릤튵럏쮮업럅솿틚뛖indwater2릤튵럏쮮훐컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿췲뛖indcod3릤튵럛뎾업럅솿췲뛖inddust4릤튵퇌뎾업럅ퟜ솿췲뛖indsmoke5뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅ퟜ솿췲뛖SO26릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅솿췲뛖indsolidꆡꆡ쫽뻝살풴:ꆶ훐맺뮷뺳쓪본ꆷ폫ꆶ좫맺뮷뺳춳볆릫놨ꆷ,1996ꆪ2002쓪룷웚ꆣ놾컄쫕죫뇤뮯폃죋뻹쫕죫횸뇪살뛈솿,틲캪폫ퟜ솿쫕죫쿠뇈,죋뻹쫕죫룼볓쓜릻랴펳돶헦쪵쫕죫쮮욽뇤뮯뛔뮷뺳훊솿뗄펰쿬,뛸쟒쫕죫뇤뮯펰쿬뮷뺳훊솿뗄탨쟳욫뫃킧펦훷튪쳥쿖퓚룶죋쫕죫뇤뮯랽쏦ꆣꋙ듳뛠쫽뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟뗄쪵횤컄쿗췹췹쫇믹폚룷맺뫡뷘쏦쫽뻝,폫놾컄믹폚룷뗘쟸뷘쏦쫽뻝(provincial)샠쯆뗄퇐뺿폐ListandG[9]allet샻폃쏀맺룷훝쫽뻝볬퇩쇋뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅솿폫죋뻹GDP뗄맘쾵ꆣꋚ샻폃쪱탲쫽뻝뛔뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫쟺쿟맘쾵뗄쪵횤퇐뺿냼삨LiangandMcKitrick[10],HuangandShaw[11]뗈ꆣ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뺭볃퓶뎤폫뮷뺳컛좾ꆪꆪꆪ뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟볙쮵뗄훐맺볬퇩5놾컄룷뗘쟸죋뻹쫕죫폃죋뻹GDP살뛈솿,쫽뻝평샺쓪ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ헻샭ꆢ볆쯣뛸뗃,쫇쿻돽쇋춨믵엲헍펰쿬뗄쪵볊죋뻹GDP,떥캻캪내1996쓪캪믹웚볛룱볆쯣뗄췲풪/죋ꆣ(뛾)쒣탍랽램샠쯆틑폐컄쿗,놾컄닉폃죧쿂뺭볃퓶뎤ꆪ뮷뺳훊솿뗄볲풼쪽믘맩랽돌살뷸탐럖컶:y=ꛁ+ꛂiti1x+ꛂ2it2x+ꛂ3+ꛅ(1)it3x+ꛂit4zitit웤훐yit듺뇭뗚i룶쪡쫐퓚뗚t쓪뗄컛좾업럅솿;xit듺뇭뗚i룶쪡쫐퓚뗚t쓪뗄죋뻹쫕죫쮮욽;zit듺뇭펰쿬뮷뺳훊솿뇤뮯뗄웤쯻뿘훆뇤솿;ꛁi퓲캪쳘뚨뗄뷘쏦킧펦ꆣ룹뻝(1)쪽믘맩뷡맻뿉틔에뛏뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫뗄벸훖뿉쓜뗄쟺쿟맘쾵:ꋙ죧맻ꛂ1>0,ꛂ2<0쟒ꛂ3>0,퓲캪죽듎쟺쿟맘쾵믲헟쮵돊N탍쟺쿟맘쾵;랴횮,죧맻ꛂ1<0,ꛂ2>0쟒ꛂ3<0,퓲캪떹N탍쟺쿟맘쾵ꆣꋚ죧맻ꛂ1>0,ꛂ2<0쟒ꛂ3=0,퓲캪뛾듎쟺쿟맘쾵,벴돊떹U탍EKC맘쾵;랴횮,죧맻ꛂ1<0,ꛂ2>0쟒ꛂ3=0,퓲캪U탍쟺쿟맘쾵ꆣꋛ죧맻ꛂ1ꇙ0,쟒ꛂ2=0,ꛂ3=0,퓲뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫횮볤캪쿟탔맘쾵ꆣ룹뻝(1)쪽믘맩뷡맻컒쏇뿉볆쯣돶뮷뺳뿢쓹듄떹U탍쟺쿟뗄헛뗣(TP)캪3x=-ꛂ1/2ꛂ2ꆣ평폚쏦냥쫽뻝춬쪱뻟폐뷘쏦ꆢ쪱탲뗄솽캬쳘탔,쒣탍짨뚨횱뷓뻶뚨쇋닎쫽맀볆뗄폐킧탔,틲듋쫗쿈뇘탫뛔쒣탍짨뚨탎쪽뷸탐볙짨볬퇩,훷튪쫇볬퇩쒣탍닎쫽퓚쯹폐뷘쏦ꆢ쪱탲퇹놾뗣짏쫇럱뻟폐쿠춬뗄닎쫽ꋙꆣ쏦냥쫽뻝뗄맀볆폐웫탔닎쫽쒣탍ꋚꆢ뇤뷘뻠쒣탍틔벰뇤쾵쫽쒣탍죽샠,뛸뇤뷘뻠쒣탍맀볆폖뿉럖캪만뚨킧펦쒣탍(fixedeffectmodel,FE)뫍쯦믺킧펦쒣탍(randomeffectmodel,RE)ꆣ평폚춨뎣뫜짙닉폃뇤쾵쫽쒣탍(Greene,1994),틲듋놾컄쏦냥쫽뻝맀볆훷튪뾼싇웫탔닎쫽쒣탍뫍뇤뷘뻠쒣탍,벴룹뻝Hausman볬퇩살퓚만뚨킧펦쒣탍뫍쯦믺킧펦쒣탍훐뷸탐톡퓱,춬쪱룹뻝F-test살에뛏뺿뺹톡폃웫탔닎쫽쒣탍뮹쫇뇤뷘뻠쒣탍,솽샠볬퇩춳볆솿릹퓬럖뇰죧쿂:Hausman볬퇩:H=-1(ꛂ^RE-ꛂ^FE)ꇤ[Var(ꛂ^FE-ꛂ^RE)](ꛂ^RE-ꛂ^FE)ꇤꆫ2x(k)웤훐ꛂ^REꆢ^ꛂFE럖뇰듺뇭만뚨킧펦ꆢ쯦믺킧펦쒣탍뗄맀볆쾵쫽,Var(ꛂ^FE-ꛂ^RE)쫇쾵쫽쿲솿(ꛂ^FE-ꛂ^RE)뗄킭랽닮뻘헳ꆣ퓚쯦믺킧펦뗄풭볙짨쿂,H볬퇩솿럾듓2x(k)럖컶,웤훐k캪믘맩랽돌뗄뷢쫍뇤솿룶쫽ꆣ죧맻H춳볆횵듳폚쇙뷧횵,퓲뻜뻸풭볙짨ꆣF-test춳볆솿릹퓬죧쿂:(SF=2-S1)/(n-1)ꆫF(n-1,nT-n-k)S1/(nT-n-k)웤훐S1ꆢS2럖뇰캪뇤뷘뻠쒣탍ꆢ웫탔닎쫽쒣탍뗄믘맩닐닮욽랽뫍ꆣ듋췢,뾼싇떽쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍훐닐닮쿠맘탔,컒쏇닉폃쇋뿉탐맣틥ퟮ킡뛾돋맀볆랽램(feasibleGLS)ꆣ튻냣뛸퇔쏦냥쫽뻝뗄닐닮쿠맘냼삨뷘쏦틬랽닮ꆢ쪱탲틬랽닮폫믬뫏틬랽닮3샠,뾼싇떽놾컄쯹톡폃뗄퇹놾쫽뻝뷘쏦쫽(30)풶풶듳폚쪱웚쫽(7)뗄쳘뗣,틲듋훷튪뛔닐닮뗄뷘쏦틬랽닮뷸탐뻀헽,벴볙뚨:E3(ꛅ,ꛅ|x)=ꛒ2;E(ꛅꛅ3i,tj,tiii,tj,s|x)=0i웤훐3xi춬쪱냼삨쇋뷢쫍뇤솿xi폫ꛄiꆣ뻟쳥뛸퇔,쫗쿈닉폃OLS맀볆램뗃떽뷘쏦닐닮쿲솿,늢볆쯣뷘쏦랽닮ꆪ킭랽닮뻘헳,좻뫳틔듋ퟷ캪좨훘,닉폃볓좨ퟮ킡뛾돋맀볆램살뷸탐맀볆ꆣ춬쪱,컒쏇뮹쪹폃쇋죧쿂뗄White컈붡뇪ힼ닮살뗃떽쾵쫽뗄t춳볆횵:N()(Nꇤꛅ^ꛅ^ꇤ-1x)(x)tttꇆxꇤtt-kꇆ-1xꇤx)(ttꇆxttt짏쪽뗚튻쿮쫇뛔ퟔ평뛈뷸탐뗷헻,웤훐N캪맛닢퇹놾ퟜ쫽,K캪듽맀볆닎쫽룶쫽ꆣ죽ꆢ뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟:돵늽맀볆샻폃1996ꆪ2002쓪볤컒맺30룶쪡ꆢ쫐ꆢퟔ훎쟸(돽컷님ퟔ훎쟸)뗄쫽뻝,럖뇰뛔(1)쪽6샠컛좾횸뇪폫죋뻹GDP뗄맘쾵뷸탐믘맩볬퇩ꆣ뾼싇떽평폚늻춬뗘쟸퇹놾뷘쏦틬랽닮컊쳢뛔맀볆폐킧탔뗄펰쿬,ꋙ헽죧튻킩컄쿗쯹횸돶뗄(Dinda,2004),뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏좡뻶폚맀볆랽램헽좷폫럱,틲듋뛔맀볆쒣탍뗄짨뚨뷸탐볬퇩훁맘훘튪ꆣꋚ벴뷘뻠뫍킱싊퓚늻춬뷘쏦ꆢ쪱탲퇹놾뗣뚼쿠춬,y=ꛁ+ꛂit1x+ꛂit2x2+ꛂit3x3+ꛂit4z+ꛅꆣitit' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
6닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆡꆡ2006쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆡퟜ뗚273웚웫탔닎쫽쒣탍폫만뚨킧펦쒣탍뻹닉폃뷘쏦볓좨믘맩램(crosssectionweights)틔쿻돽뷘쏦틬랽닮컊쳢,늢쟒닉폃White컈붡뇪ힼ닮살뗃떽쾵쫽t춳볆횵;쯦믺킧펦쒣탍퓲닉폃믹폚쯦믺킧펦뮯랽돌뗄GLS맀볆랽램ꆣ춬쪱,퓚쪵볊맀볆훐룹뻝맀볆뷡맻뗄DꆤW춳볆횵뿉틔에뛏믘맩닐닮쫇럱듦퓚탲쇐ퟔ쿠맘컊쳢,늢쿠펦퓚맀볆랽돌훐볓죫AR쿮,틔쿻돽탲쇐ퟔ쿠맘쿖쿳ꆣ컒쏇뗄맀볆늽훨쫇:쫗쿈뛔춬쪱냼삨쇋죋뻹GDP뗄욽랽쿮ꆢ솢랽쿮뗄랽돌뷸탐맀볆,늢룹뻝맀볆쾵쫽뗄t춳볆횵뫍Wald볬퇩살에뛏쫇럱듦퓚N쟺쿟믲떹N쟺쿟맘쾵ꆣ죧맻죋뻹GDP뗄솢랽쿮늻쿔훸,퓲뛔쳞돽쇋죋뻹GDP솢랽쿮뗄랽돌훘탂뷸탐맀볆ꆣ럖뇰뛔6샠컛좾횸뇪폫죋뻹GDP횮볤뗄EKC뷸탐맀볆,뗃떽뇭2뷡맻ꆣ뇭26샠컛좾업럅폫죋뻹GDP뗄맀볆뷡맻컛좾횸뇪indwaterindcodinddustindsmokeSO2indsolid맀볆쒣탍REFEFEFEFEFE416941210791810313711462197152176C33333333333333(41394)(51125)(41466)(22121)(81357)(13133388)31512-12169261548-914721705-21197agdp33333333333333(3131)(-3199)(-21782)(-3175)(11369)(-3151)-0193511785-14108101697-11706171362agdp333333(-3117)(1146)(-21309)(11442)(-113397)(21387)210643agdp3(11809)adj-R2015110191801644019650199101631DꆤW1185212911526213521232131퇹놾210210210210210210쟺쿟탎ힴ떹U탍쿟탔N탍쿟탔떹U탍U탍TꆤP(췲풪/죋)21465NA11267ꆢ314NA0179401647F-statistic191811819924137271161918419127Hausman-test61892510119193281092118325162뷡싛떹U탍쿟탔(ꇽ)N탍쿟탔(ꇽ)떹U탍U탍ꆡꆡ힢:FEꆢRE럖뇰듺뇭만뚨킧펦맀볆쒣탍폫쯦믺킧펦맀볆쒣탍;3ꆢ33ꆢ333럖뇰뇭쪾1%ꆢ5%틔벰10%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽,맀볆쾵쫽뗄t춳볆횵룹뻝White컈붡뇪ힼ닮볆쯣뛸뗃,쿂컄쿠춬ꆣ(튻)쮮컛좾폫죋뻹GDP뗄EKC볬퇩11릤튵럏쮮업럅폫죋뻹GDPꆣ믘맩뷡맻뇭쏷,릤튵럏쮮업럅솿indwater폫죋뻹GDP횮볤듦퓚쿔훸뗄뿢쓹듄떹U탍쟺쿟맘쾵,뛸쟒죽샠쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍믘맩뷡맻(OLSꆢFEꆢRE)뚼뷏캪튻훂뗘횧돖헢튻뷡싛ꆣ룹뻝F-test뫍Hausman볬퇩뷡맻,ퟮ뫳톡좡쇋뇭2쯹쪾뗄쯦믺킧펦쒣탍믘맩뷡맻:indwater=41694+312512agdp-01935agdp(2)평(2)쪽뿉뷸튻늽볆쯣돶릤튵럏쮮업럅ꆪ쫕죫떹U탍쟺쿟뗄헛뗣캻폚죋뻹GDP21465췲풪/죋뗄쇙뷧횵뒦ꆣ헢튻맀볆뷡맻뗄뺭볃틢틥쫇쿔좻뗄:횻폐떱죋뻹GDP뎬맽21465췲풪/죋뗄쇙뷧쮮욽,룃뗘쟸릤튵럏쮮업럅솿뫍죋뻹GDP볤닅뾪쪼돶쿖쿂붵쟷쫆,벴쯦ퟅ죋뻹GDP뗄뷸튻늽짏짽릤튵럏쮮업럅솿붫복짙ꆣ좻뛸뛔폚죋뻹GDP뗍폚21465췲풪/죋쇙뷧쮮욽뗄뗘쟸뛸퇔,릤튵럏쮮업럅솿뫍죋뻹' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뺭볃퓶뎤폫뮷뺳컛좾ꆪꆪꆪ뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟볙쮵뗄훐맺볬퇩7GDP볤뻟폐짏짽쟷쫆,벴쯦ퟅ죋뻹GDP뷸튻늽짏짽릤튵럏쮮업럅솿붫춬쪱퓶볓ꋙꆣ춨맽붫컒맺룷뗘쟸쪵볊죋뻹GDP쮮욽폫21465췲풪/죋뗄쇙뷧횵쿠뇈뷏,뿉틔뛔컒맺쟸폲뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵뷸탐에뛏ꆣ뇭3쇐돶쇋2002쓪죋뻹GDP잰5캻뗄쪡럝틔벰좫맺죋뻹GDP뗄욽뻹횵ꆣ평뇭3뿉뾴떽,컒맺뻸듳늿럖쪡럝뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵뚼캻폚EKC뗄ퟳ냫뛎,벴쯦ퟅ죋뻹GDP뗄짏짽,릤튵럏쮮업럅솿튲붫쿠펦뗘퓶볓ꆣퟷ캪죋뻹GDPퟮ룟뗄뗘쟸,짏몣쫇캩튻틑뺭풽맽21465췲풪/죋쇙뷧뗣,캻폚EKC폒냫뛎뗄뗘쟸ꆣ놱뺩죋뻹GDP(21451췲풪/죋)폫쇙뷧뗣뷏캪뷓뷼,떫죔캻폚EKCퟳ냫뛎ꆣ죋뻹GDP업쏻뗚3ꆪ5캻뗄쳬뷲ꆢ헣붭ꆢ맣뚫폫쇙뷧뗣틑뺭듦퓚뷏듳뻠샫,폈웤쫇볆쯣2002쓪좫맺죋뻹GDP뗄욽뻹횵11077췲풪/죋,뿉랢쿖뻍좫맺욽뻹쮮욽뛸퇔,컒맺뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫횮볤뗄믹놾맘쾵돊헽쿠맘탔ꆣ뇭32002쓪죋뻹GDP잰컥캻쪡럝벰좫맺뻹횵쇙뷧횵짏몣놱뺩쳬뷲헣붭맣뚫좫맺뻹횵죋뻹GDP16142145121212118211162611077(췲풪/죋214653)컒쏇튲뿉틔붫놾컄쪵횤뷡맻폫맺췢쿠맘쪵횤뷡맻뷸탐뇈뷏ꆣ뇭4쇐돶쇋횧돖뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫뿢쓹듄쟺쿟맘쾵듦퓚뗄튻킩퇐뺿컄쿗ꋚꆣ붫놾컄쪵횤뷡맻폫뇭4쿠뇈,튻룶폐좤뗄랢쿖쫇컒맺뿉쓜퓚뺭볃랢햹쮮욽짏뮹죔좻뒦폚쿠뛔뷏뗍뗄뷗뛎풽맽쇋EKC뗄헛뗣,틲캪룹뻝(2)쪽맀쯣뗄헛뗣21465췲풪/죋튪풶뗍폚뇭4쯹쇐돶뗄웤쯼퇐뺿뷡싛ꆣ춨맽뇭4컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖헛뗣튻냣쫇퓚죋뻹쫕죫캻폚5000ꆪ20000쏀풪횮볤쪱돶쿖,샽죧폫놾컄샠쯆,ListandG[9]allet믹폚쏀맺룷훝뗄쪵횤뷡맻랢쿖헛뗣캻폚죋뻹GDP22675쏀풪뒦ꆣ헢튻뷡맻튻랽쏦랴펳쇋컛좾뛈솿횸뇪ꆢ퇹놾쟸폲뗄톡좡뛔EKC쪵횤뷡맻뗄뻶뚨ퟷ폃,쇭튻랽쏦튲쳡탑컒쏇,벴쪹쫇뛔폚쿱컒맺헢퇹뗄랢햹훐맺볒뛸퇔,튲뿉쓜퓚튻룶쿠뛔뷏뗍뗄죋뻹쫕죫쮮욽뷗뛎뷏퓧뗘뎬풽EKC뗄쇙뷧뗣ꆣ뇭4맘폚뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟(EKC)뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿컄쿗퇹놾뗘쟸컛좾뛈솿횸뇪헛뗣(쏀풪)GrossmanandKruegerNAFTA맺볒,쫽뻝살ퟔGAMS뛾퇵뮯쇲ꆢ좼징퇌컭업럅4000ꆪ5000(1995)ShafikandBandyopadhyayW10샠컛좾횸뇪,냼삨뿕웸ꆢ쮮ꆢorldDevelopmentReport,1992(1992)즭쇖컛좾3000ꆪ4000Panayotou(1993)55룶랢듯ꆢ랢햹훐맺볒뛾퇵뮯쇲3137SeldenandSong(1994)랢듯맺볒SO2ꆢSPMꆢCO뗈7114ꆪ13383Panayotou(1997)30룶랢듯ꆢ랢햹훐맺볒뛾퇵뮯쇲5965ListandGallet(1999)쏀맺룷훝뛾퇵뮯쇲22675SternandCommon(2001)73룶랢듯ꆢ랢햹훐맺볒뛾퇵뮯쇲10116621릤튵럏쮮컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿(COD)폫죋뻹GDPꆣ룹뻝F-test뫍Hausman볬퇩뷡맻,ퟮ뫳톡좡ꋙ떱좻,컛좾업럅뫍죋뻹GDP횮볤뗄헢튻춬늽짏짽쟷쫆늢늻뇘좻틢캶ퟅ뺭볃랢햹떼훂쇋컛좾업럅뗄퓶볓,틲캪튲뿉쓜쫇컛좾업럅뇤뮯펰쿬ퟅ뺭볃랢햹쯙뛈,벴퓚컛좾업럅뫍죋뻹GDP횮볤뿉쓜듦퓚ퟅ쮫쿲틲맻맘쾵ꆣ튻킩ퟷ헟퓋폃Granger틲맻볬퇩랽램뛔뮷뺳컛좾폫쫕죫뇤뮯횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵뷸탐쇋볬퇩[12],죧CoondooandDindaꆢLiangandMcKitrick[10]뗈ꆣꋚ맘폚뮷뺳뿢쓹듄떹U탍쟺쿟퇐뺿뗄컄쿗ퟛ쫶뻟쳥뿉볻Stern(1998)ꆢPanayotou(2000)틔벰Dinda(2004)뗈ꆣ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
8닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆡꆡ2006쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆡퟜ뗚273웚쇋뇭2뗄만뚨킧펦쒣탍믘맩뷡맻:indcod=121079-12169agdp(3)(3)쪽뇭쏷,indoczl폫죋뻹GDP횮볤늢늻듦퓚뿢쓹듄떹U탍쟺쿟맘쾵ꆣ죋뻹GDP욽랽쿮뗄t춳볆횵캪1146,쎻폐춨맽쿔훸탔쮮욽볬퇩(웤p횵캪01127),쮵쏷릤튵럏쮮컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿폫죋뻹GDP횮볤쎻폐돶쿖쟺쿟맘쾵ꆣ캪쇋뷸튻늽횤쪵indcod폫죋뻹GDP횮볤뗄쿟탔맘쾵,컒쏇퓚(1)쪽믘맩뷡맻훐냼삨쇋죋뻹GDP뗄솢랽쿮,퓋폃만뚨킧펦쒣탍뷸탐맀볆뗃떽뷡맻죧쿂:23indcod=61675-201748agdp+31937agdp-01206agdp(4)(51268)(-11962)(01659)(-01218)R2:01916;DꆤW:1173(4)쪽뗄맀볆쾵쫽뇭쏷릤튵럏쮮컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿폫죋뻹GDP횮볤쫇튻훖떹N탍맘쾵,좻뛸(4)쪽훐죋뻹GDP뗄욽랽쿮폫솢랽쿮뗄맀볆쾵쫽t춳볆횵뻹늻쿔훸ꆣ뛔ꛂ2=ꛂ3=0볙짨뗄Wald볬퇩뷡맻캪01375,튲뻜뻸쇋죋뻹GDP뗄욽랽쿮폫솢랽쿮솪뫏쿔훸뗄풭볙짨ꆣ뛸쟒,폫뇭2맀볆뷡맻쿠뇈,(4)쪽훐볓죫쇋죋뻹GDP솢랽쿮뫳뗄맀볆뷡맻훐,죋뻹GDP욽랽쿮뗄쾵쫽t춳볆횵뇤뗃룼캪늻쿔훸쇋ꆣ틲듋,룹뻝짏쫶맀볆뷡맻뿉틔듳훂에뛏indcod폫죋뻹GDP횮볤늻듦퓚쟺쿟맘쾵ꆣ럖컶(3)쪽죋뻹GDP뗄믘맩쾵쫽튲뿉틔랢쿖,퓚놾컄쯹톡좡뗄퇹놾웚볤죋뻹GDP뗄짏짽쓜릻붵뗍릤튵럏쮮컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿:죋뻹GDP쎿쳡룟1췲풪(1996쓪믹웚볛),듳훂쓜릻떼훂릤튵럏쮮컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿붵뗍12169췲뛖ꆣ(뛾)럏웸컛좾폫죋뻹GDP뗄EKC볬퇩퓚뾼달럏웸업럅폫죋뻹GDP횮볤뗄맘쾵쪱,컒쏇럖뇰톡폃쇋3샠뛈솿럏웸컛좾뗄횸뇪:릤튵럛뎾업럅솿ꆢ릤튵퇌뎾업럅ퟜ솿틔벰뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅ퟜ솿ꆣ틔쿂컒쏇럖뇰뾼달헢3샠럏웸컛좾폫죋뻹GDP뗄맘쾵ꆣ11릤튵럛뎾업럅폫죋뻹GDPꆣ룹뻝F-test뫍Hausman볬퇩뷡맻,ퟮ뫳톡좡쇋죧뇭2쯹쪾뗄만뚨킧펦쒣탍믘맩뷡맻:2inddust=181031+261548agdp-141081agdp+213064agdp(5)쿔좻,(5)쪽맀볆뷡맻뇭쏷듦퓚ퟅinddust폫죋뻹GDP횮볤뗄N탍쟺쿟맘쾵ꆣ뷸튻늽룹뻝(5)쪽맀볆뷡맻뿉틔볆쯣돶룃N탍쟺쿟뗄솽룶헛뗣럖뇰캪죋뻹쫕죫11267췲풪폫314췲풪:뛔폚죋뻹쫕죫뗍폚11267췲풪/죋뗄뗘쟸뛸퇔,릤튵럛뎾업럅솿붫쯦ퟅ죋뻹GDP뗄짏짽뛸퓶볓;튻떩죋뻹쫕죫춻웆쇋11267췲풪/죋뗄쇙뷧횵쮮욽,듋쪱죋뻹GDP뗄볌탸쳡룟붫폐훺폚붵뗍릤튵럛뎾뗄업럅;쯦ퟅ죋뻹GDP뗄뷸튻늽쳡룟,퓚314췲풪/죋뗄뗚뛾룶쇙뷧뗣횮뫳릤튵럛뎾업럅솿폖붫쯦ퟅ죋뻹GDP뗄짏짽뛸퓶볓ꆣ헢튻뷡맻뛔컒쏇뗄웴쪾틢틥폐솽뗣:뗚튻,럖컶컒맺쒿잰죋뻹GDP뗄뗘쟸럖늼쳘헷,뿉틔랢쿖훐컷늿뗘쟸뗄죋뻹GDP듳뛠뗍폚11267췲풪/죋뗄쇙뷧횵쮮욽,뛸뻸듳뛠쫽뚫늿퇘몣뗘쟸쪡럝뗄죋뻹GDP횵틑뺭춻웆쇋11267췲풪/죋뗄쇙뷧횵쮮욽(2002쓪12룶뚫늿퇘몣뗘쟸훐뗄8룶쪡럝틑뺭춻웆쇋룃쇙뷧횵)ꆣ틲듋,뻍릤튵럛뎾업럅솿폫죋뻹GDP뗄N탍쟺쿟맘쾵뛸퇔,뗚튻룶헛뗣(11267췲풪/죋)뇈뗚뛾룶헛뗣(314췲풪/죋)뻟폐룼잿뗄쿖쪵뺭볃틢틥,벴쒿잰컒맺뻸듳뛠쫽뗘쟸뗄죋뻹GDP폫릤튵럛뎾업럅횮볤쫇튻훖떹U탍쟺쿟맘쾵ꆣ뗚뛾,(5)쪽튲쳡탑컒쏇,죋뻹GDP폫뮷뺳컛좾횮볤뗄맘쾵뿉쓜믡돶쿖튻훖뷏캪뢴퓓뗄쟺쿟맘쾵ꆣ21릤튵퇌뎾업럅폫죋뻹GDPꆣ럖뇰퓋폃3샠쏦냥쒣탍뛔indsmoke폫죋뻹GDP뗄맘쾵뷸탐쇋맀볆,웤훐퓚뷸탐웫탔닎쫽쒣탍맀볆폫만뚨킧펦쒣탍맀볆쪱,평폚DꆤW볬퇩횵뇭쏷뻹듦퓚ퟅ닐닮탲쇐ퟔ쿠맘쿖쿳,틲듋퓚뛔웫탔닎쫽쒣탍ꆢ만뚨킧펦쒣탍맀볆쪱뻹볓죫쇋튻뷗ퟔ쿠맘AꆤR(1)쿮ꆣ룹뻝F-test뫍Hausman볬퇩뷡맻,ퟮ뫳톡좡쇋뇭2뗄만뚨킧펦쒣탍믘맩뷡맻:indsmoke=37114-9147agdp;AꆤR(1)=01221(6)짏쪽뇭쏷죋뻹GDP뛔릤튵퇌뎾업럅솿쫇튻훖쿟탔펰쿬:쯦ퟅ죋뻹GDP뗄짏짽,릤튵퇌뎾업럅솿튲쿠펦쿂붵;룹뻝(6)쪽맀볆뷡맻,죋뻹GDP쎿퓶볓1췲풪(1996쓪믹웚볛),붫쪹뗃릤튵퇌뎾업럅솿쿂붵9147췲뛖ꆣ캪쇋뷸튻늽볬퇩죋뻹GDP폫릤튵퇌뎾업럅솿횮볤쫇럱듦퓚쟺쿟맘쾵,샠쯆뗘,컒쏇퓚맀볆맽돌훐볓죫쇋죋뻹GDP뗄솢랽쿮,늢퓋폃만뚨킧펦쒣탍뷸탐쇋맀볆,뗃떽뷡맻죧쿂:' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뺭볃퓶뎤폫뮷뺳컛좾ꆪꆪꆪ뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟볙쮵뗄훐맺볬퇩923indcod=201521-12106agdp-20151agdp+3146agdp(7)(21154)(-11789)(-11301)(11170)R2:01916;DꆤW:11434평짏쪽뿉틔랢쿖볓죫쇋죋뻹GDP솢랽쿮뗄맀볆뷡싛폫(6)쪽믹놾튻훂,벴릤튵퇌뎾업럅솿폫죋뻹GDP횮볤듦퓚ퟅ튻훖쿟탔뢺쿠맘탔,웤훐(7)쪽훐죋뻹GDP뗄욽랽쿮폫솢랽쿮뗄맀볆쾵쫽t춳볆횵뻹늻쿔훸ꆣ뛔ꛂ2=ꛂ3=0볙짨뗄Wald볬퇩뷡맻캪01718,튲뻜뻸쇋죋뻹GDP뗄욽랽쿮폫솢랽쿮솪뫏쿔훸뗄풭볙짨ꆣ31뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅폫죋뻹GDPꆣ샠쯆뗘,럖뇰퓋폃3샠쏦냥쒣탍뛔SO2폫죋뻹GDP뗄맘쾵뷸탐쇋맀볆,웤훐퓚뷸탐웫탔닎쫽쒣탍맀볆폫만뚨킧펦쒣탍맀볆쪱,평폚DꆤW볬퇩횵뇭쏷뻹듦퓚탲쇐ퟔ쿠맘,틲듋퓚뛔웫탔닎쫽쒣탍ꆢ만뚨킧펦쒣탍맀볆쪱볓죫쇋튻뷗ퟔ쿠맘AꆤR(1)쿮틔쿻돽닐닮탲쇐ퟔ쿠맘쿖쿳ꆣ룹뻝F-test뫍Hausman볬퇩뷡맻,ퟮ뫳톡좡쇋뇭2뗄만뚨킧펦쒣탍믘맩뷡맻:SO22=62197+21705agdp-11706agdp;AꆤR(1)=01144(8)(8)쪽뇭쏷죋뻹GDP폫뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅솿횮볤듦퓚ퟅ뿢쓹듄떹U탍쟺쿟맘쾵,뷸튻늽볆쯣룃쟺쿟헛뗣뿉뗃떽쇙뷧횵캪01794췲풪/죋ꆣ헢튻맀볆뷡맻뇭쏷쇋,뛔폚죋뻹GDP뗍폚01794췲풪/죋쇙뷧쮮욽뗄뗘쟸뛸퇔,뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅ퟜ솿뫍죋뻹GDP횮볤뻟폐짏짽쟷쫆,벴쯦ퟅ죋뻹GDP뗄뷸튻늽짏짽뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅ퟜ솿붫춬쪱퓶볓ꆣ횻폐떱죋뻹GDP뎬맽01794췲풪/죋뗄쇙뷧쮮욽,쯦ퟅ죋뻹GDP뗄뷸튻늽짏짽룃뗘쟸뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅ퟜ솿붫복짙ꆣ붫컒맺쒿잰죋뻹GDP뗄뗘쟸럖늼쿖ힴ폫01794췲풪/죋뗄쇙뷧횵뷸탐뇈뷏뿉틔랢쿖,폫릤튵럏쮮업럅솿늻춬,놾컄쯹톡좡뗄퇹놾쪡럝뗄쿠떱튻늿럖틑뺭풽맽쇋EKC뗄헛뗣ꆣ퓚놾컄쯹톡좡뗄30룶쪡쫐훐,폐18룶쪡쫐뗄죋뻹GDP틑뺭룟폚헢튻쇙뷧쮮욽,웤훐냼삨뫓놱ꆢ뫾놱ꆢ쇉쓾ꆢ벪쇖뗈퓚쓚뗄훐컷늿쪡럝ꆣ폫뇭3쯹쇐돶뗄늿럖맺췢맘폚뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫EKC뗄쪵횤퇐뺿뷡맻쿠뇈뷏,컒쏇뿉틔뷸튻늽랢쿖,뻍뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅ퟜ솿헢튻컛좾횸뇪뛸퇔,컒맺뗘쟸쫽뻝맀볆뷡맻뇭쏷쫇퓚튻룶쿠뛔뷏뗍죋뻹GDP뗄쇙뷧쮮욽짏돶쿖쇋EKC헛뗣ꆣ(죽)릤튵만쳥럏웺컯폫죋뻹GDP뗄EKC볬퇩샠쯆뗘,퓚뷸탐웫탔닎쫽쒣탍맀볆폫만뚨킧펦쒣탍맀볆쪱,볓죫쇋튻뷗ퟔ쿠맘AꆤR(1)쿮틔쿻돽닐닮탲쇐ퟔ쿠맘쿖쿳,룹뻝F-test뫍Hausman볬퇩뷡맻,ퟮ뫳톡좡쇋뇭2만뚨킧펦쒣탍믘맩뷡맻:2indsolid=152176-21197agdp+17136agdp;AꆤR(1)=-01144(9)(9)쪽뇭쏷쇋릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅폫죋뻹GDP횮볤듦퓚ퟅ튻훖U탍맘쾵,늢쟒룃U탍쟺쿟뗄헛뗣캻폚죋뻹GDP01647췲풪뒦ꆣ헢튻U탍쟺쿟뿌뮭쇋죋뻹GDP뇤뮯뛔릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅뗄펰쿬:떱죋뻹GDP뗍폚01647췲풪/죋쇙뷧쮮욽쪱,릤튵만쳥럏웺컯뗄업럅솿쯦ퟅ죋뻹GDP뗄쳡룟뛸쿂붵;좻뛸튻떩죋뻹GDP풽맽쇋01647췲풪/죋뗄쇙뷧횵,듋쪱릤튵만쳥럏웺컯랴뛸폖쯦ퟅ죋뻹GDP뗄뷸튻늽짏짽뛸퓶볓ꆣ붫컒맺쒿잰죋뻹GDP뗄뗘쟸럖늼쿖ힴ폫룃U탍쟺쿟뗄쇙뷧횵쿠뇈뷏,뿉틔랢쿖뛔폚컒맺뚫늿퇘몣랢듯쪡쫐폫늿럖훐ꆢ컷늿뗘쟸쪡쫐(죧뫓놱ꆢ쇉쓾)뛸퇔,웤릤튵만쳥럏웺컯폫죋뻹GDP맘쾵캻폚U탍쟺쿟뗄폒냫뛎,벴릤튵만쳥럏웺컯뗄업럅솿쯦ퟅ죋뻹GDP뗄퓶볓뛸짏짽ꋙꆣ캪쇋뷸튻늽퇩횤릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅폫죋뻹GDP횮볤뗄쟺쿟맘쾵,놾컄붫죋뻹GDP솢랽쿮튲냼삨맀볆랽돌훐,늢퓋폃만뚨킧펦쒣탍뷸탐맀볆,뗃떽맀볆뷡맻죧쿂:indsolid=163154-89136agdp+2612385agdp-2166agdp;AꆤR(1)=-01047(10)(11153)(-31284)(2134)(-11634)R2:01631;DꆤW:21289(10)쪽맀볆뷡맻뇭쏷릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅폫죋뻹GDP뿉쓜듦퓚ퟅ튻훖떹U탍맘쾵,벴퓚(9)쪽쯹뿌뮭뗄U탍쟺쿟맘쾵횮뫳,떱죋뻹GDP퓙듎풽맽뗚뛾룶헛뗣쪱,죋뻹GDP뗄뷸튻늽짏짽폖붫훘탂떼훂릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅솿뗄쿂붵ꆣ(10)쪽훐죋뻹GDP솢랽쿮뗄맀볆쾵쫽t춳볆횵캪-11634,웤p횵캪-01104,벴퓚10%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽짏컒쏇뮹쫇뿉틔듳훂뻜뻸죋뻹GDP솢랽쿮뗄맀볆쾵쫽쿔훸탔볙짨ꆣꋙ떱좻,헽죧뮷뺳뺭볃톧볒쯹죏쪶떽뗄,폫웤쯻럏웸ꆢ럏쮮업럅뛔뮷뺳훊솿쯹닺짺뗄컛좾펰쿬늻춬,만쳥럏웺컯쫽솿뗄퓶볓늢늻뇘좻튻뚨떼훂뮷뺳컛좾,폈웤쫇퇚싱사미뗄뒦샭벰믘쫕벼쫵틑뺭뗃떽쇋벫듳뗄쳡룟,뛔헢튻컊쳢뗄싛쫶뿉볻Stern[13]ꆣ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
10닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆡꆡ2006쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆡퟜ뗚273웚춬쪱,맛달(10)쪽훐죋뻹GDP폫웤욽랽쿮뗄맀볆쾵쫽,컒쏇뿉틔볆쯣돶U탍쟺쿟뗄헛뗣캪11654췲풪/죋,쏷쿔튪룟폚(9)쪽쯹볆쯣돶뗄죋뻹GDP쇙뷧횵ꆣ틲듋,뺡맜컒쏇뿉틔에뛏돶릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅솿폫죋뻹GDP듦퓚ퟅU탍쟺쿟맘쾵,좻뛸맘폚룃쟺쿟뗄헛뗣뗄좷뚨뮹폐듽뷸튻늽퇐뺿ꆣ(쯄)맀볆뷡맻럖컶ퟛ뫏짏쫶6샠뮷뺳컛좾횸뇪폫죋뻹GDP뗄쏦냥쫽뻝맀볆뷡맻,컒쏇뿉틔ퟜ뷡틔쿂훷튪뷡싛:뗚튻,뮷뺳컛좾폫쫕죫뇤뮯ꆢ뺭볃랢햹횮볤뗄맘쾵뻟폐늻좷뚨탔,틲캪뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫뿢쓹듄쟺쿟뗄맀볆뷡맻뫜듳돌뛈짏좡뻶폚뛈솿횸뇪뗄톡좡ꆢ퇹놾쫽뻝뗄톡퓱틔벰맀볆랽램ꆣ뇭5ퟜ뷡쇋룹뻝놾컄맀볆뷡맻쯹뗃떽뗄6샠컛좾컯뛈솿횸뇪폫죋뻹GDP뗄쟺쿟맘쾵ꆣ룹뻝뇭5뿉틔쏷쿔뾴돶,컛좾뛈솿횸뇪톡좡뗄닮틬떼훂쇋뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫쟺쿟맘쾵듦퓚ퟅ뷏듳쟸뇰,웤훐튻샠횸뇪(릤튵럛뎾업럅)폫죋뻹GDP뻟폐N탍쟺쿟맘쾵,뛾샠횸뇪(릤튵럏쮮업럅ꆢ뛾퇵뮯쇲)폫죋뻹GDP뻟폐뿢쓹듄떹U탍쟺쿟맘쾵;튻샠횸뇪(릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅)폫죋뻹GDP뻟폐U탍쟺쿟맘쾵,뛾샠횸뇪(릤튵럏쮮훐컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿ꆢ릤튵퇌뎾업럅솿)퓲뻟폐쿟탔맘쾵ꆣ퓚뷢쫍뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫쟺쿟맘쾵뛔컛좾뛈솿횸뇪뗄틀삵탔,튻룶훘튪뗄풭틲쫇컛좾업럅뗄펰쿬랶캧,벴컛좾췢늿킧펦뷶쿞폚뻖늿랶캧뗄컛좾횸뇪(localpollution)룼쟷쿲폚돶쿖뿢쓹듄떹U탍쟺쿟맘쾵,죧SO[14-15]2ꆣ뇈뷏놾컄쯹닉폃뗄3샠쏦냥쒣탍뗄맀볆뷡맻닮틬뮹뿉틔뾴돶맀볆랽램뛔EKC탎ힴ뗄펰쿬ꆣ쫂쪵짏,돽쇋릤튵럏쮮업럅솿폫릤튵럛뎾업럅솿헢솽룶횸뇪틔췢,웤쯻뗄4샠컛좾횸뇪뚼돶쿖쇋맀볆뷡맻닮틬,폈웤쫇웫탔닎쫽쒣탍ꆢ만뚨킧펦쒣탍폫쯦믺킧펦쒣탍퓚맀볆뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅ퟜ솿폫죋뻹GDP맘쾵쪱,돶쿖쇋뷘좻늻춬뗄뷡맻ꆣ틲듋,쫇럱쫇뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫뿢쓹듄쟺쿟퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏좡뻶폚풭쪼쫽뻝폫맀볆랽램뗄톡좡ꆣ뇭56샠뮷뺳컛좾업럅폫죋뻹GDP뗄맀볆뷡맻컛좾업럅컯쏻돆쟺쿟탎ힴ헛뗣(죋뻹GDP)1릤튵럏쮮업럅솿떹U탍21465췲풪2릤튵럏쮮훐컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿쿟탔(ꇽ)NA3릤튵럛뎾업럅솿N탍11267췲풪ꆢ314췲풪4릤튵퇌뎾업럅ퟜ솿쿟탔(ꇽ)NA5뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅ퟜ솿떹U탍01794췲풪6릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅솿U탍01647췲풪뗚뛾,붫놾컄쯹맀볆뗄뿢쓹듄떹U탍쟺쿟뗄헛뗣폫쿠맘컄쿗뷸탐뇈뷏,뿉틔랢쿖컞싛쫇릤튵럏쮮업럅솿뮹쫇뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅ퟜ솿,웤떹U탍쟺쿟뗄쇙뷧횵(21465췲풪/죋ꆢ01794췲풪/죋)뚼튪쏷쿔뗍폚맺췢컄쿗퇐뺿뷡맻(튻냣캻폚5000ꆪ20000쏀풪)ꆣ쇙뷧횵뗄좷뚨뛔뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫헾닟뗄톡좡뻟폐훘듳펰쿬:룹뻝놾컄맀볆뷡맻,죧맻컒맺뚫늿퇘몣랢듯쪡쫐틑뺭캻폚EKC뗄폒냫뛎,퓲뷸튻늽뗄뺭볃퓶뎤놾짭뻍쫇뮺뷢뮷뺳뛱뮯톹솦ꆢ붵뗍컛좾업럅뗄폐킧춾뺶ꆣ쿠랴,죧맻뻍컒맺뺭볃헻쳥랢햹쮮욽뛸퇔죔좻뒦폚EKC뗄ퟳ냫뛎,퓲뇘탫퓚뺭볃랢햹뫍뮷뺳놣뮤ꆢ컛좾업럅횮볤뷸탐좨뫢톡퓱ꆣ놾컄뗄튻룶폐틦웴쪾쫇,쯤좻EKC뿌뮭쇋랢햹훐맺볒쯹늻뿉뇜쏢쏦쇙뗄뮷뺳ꆪ랢햹솽쓑컊쳢,떫쫇랢햹훐맺볒춬퇹뿉틔샻폃뫳랢폅쫆뫍헾뢮틽떼ퟷ폃살룄뇤EKC뗄헛뗣,듓뛸쪹뗃퓚튻룶쿠뛔뷏뗍쮮욽뗄쇙뷧횵풽맽떹U탍쟺쿟뗄헛뗣돉캪뿉쓜ꆣ샠쯆뗘[16],Dasguptaetal퓚ퟜ뷡쇋맘폚룷맺EKC뺭퇩횤뻝뫳횸돶,믹폚랢햹훐맺볒퇹놾뗄뿢쓹듄쟺쿟쇙뷧횵튻냣튪뗍폚랢듯맺볒퇹놾뮷뺳떹U탍뗄쇙뷧횵,웤훐튻룶훘튪풭틲퓚폚랢햹훐맺볒춨맽뮷뺳헾닟쯹웰떽뗄뮷뺳맜훆폫볠뚽ퟷ폃ꆣ샽죧[17],Gallagher횸돶,훐맺웻뎵탐튵뗄컛좾업럅뇪ힼ폫얷훞뗄닮뻠(8ꆪ10쓪뗄훍뫳)튪풶풶뗍폚훐맺죋뻹쫕죫폫뫳헟뗄닮뻠ꆣ뗚죽,뾼싇떽놾컄쯹톡폃뗄컛좾뛈솿횸뇪듳뛠뿌뮭쇋릤튵컛좾업럅쟩뿶,틲듋놾컄쯹맀볆뗄뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫쟺쿟맘쾵뫜듳돌뛈짏폫컒맺뗘쟸릤튵뮯뷸돌쿠맘ꆣ뷡뫏쿠맘컄쿗쪵횤뷡맻,쯤좻뿢쓹듄쟺쿟뷢쫍쇋뮷뺳훊솿퓚죋쏇쫕죫뎬풽쇋튻뚨쇙뷧횵횮뫳붫뗃떽돖탸룄짆,좻뛸뛔폚맣듳랢햹훐맺볒뛸퇔,웤죋' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뺭볃퓶뎤폫뮷뺳컛좾ꆪꆪꆪ뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟볙쮵뗄훐맺볬퇩11뻹쫕죫쮮욽뮹풶풶캴쓜듯떽헢튻쇙뷧쮮욽뗄튪쟳ꆣ폫랢듯맺볒닺튵뷡릹늻춬,듳뛠쫽랢햹훐맺볒죔좻뒦폚릤튵뮯뗄랢햹돵벶믲훐웚뷗뛎,릤튵뮯뗄튻룶쿔훸쳘뗣쫇닺돶췹췹틀삵폚풴욷폫쓜풴욷뗄쿻뫄,틲듋쯤좻뮷뺳폫쫕죫뇤뮯뗄떹U탍EKC뿉쓜쫇튻냣맦싉,좻뛸랢햹훐맺볒퇹놾쫽뻝뗄쪵횤뷡맻뫜뿉쓜늢늻횧돖헢튻뷡싛ꆣ폈웤쫇랢햹훐맺볒뗄릤튵뮯뷸돌췹췹쫇틔쟸폲랢햹햽싔캪떼쿲탍뗄,퓚뗘랽헾뢮틔떱뗘릤튵랢햹캪웤뻶닟쒿뇪쪱,췹췹죝틗돶쿖뮷뺳싓뛡탔뗄뺭볃탐캪,벴퓚늻뾼싇컛좾업럅ꆢ뮷뺳뛱뮯뗄뢺쏦킧펦쿂,웤릤튵닺돶붫룟폚퓚뾼싇컛좾짧믡뇟볊돉놾쟩뿶쿂뗄ퟮ폅닺돶횵ꆣ틲듋,죧뫎퓚뺭볃랢햹폫뮷뺳놣뮤횮볤뷸탐좨뫢,첽쯷돶퓶뎤폫뮷뺳늢훘뗄뿉돖탸랢햹쒣쪽,죔좻쫇뷱뫳컒맺뺭볃랢햹쯹쏦쇙뗄훘튪뿎쳢ꆣ쯄ꆢ뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟뗄뷸튻늽맀볆뇭2뗄맀볆뷡맻룸돶쇋6샠컛좾업럅솿폫죋뻹GDP횮볤뗄쟺쿟맘쾵,떫뫶싔쇋웤쯼뿘훆뇤솿뛔뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫쟺쿟탎ힴ뗄펰쿬ꆣ틲듋,놾늿럖퓚(1)쪽맀볆뗄믹뒡짏뷸튻늽볓죫펰쿬컛좾업럅뗄뿘훆뇤솿,뛔뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫쟺쿟맘쾵뷸탐훘탂맀볆,훷튪쒿뗄폐솽룶:뗚튻,볬퇩(1)쪽맀볆뷡맻뗄컈붡탔,벴뇭2맀볆뷡맻쯹뇭쏷뗄룷샠뮷뺳컛좾횸뇪폫죋뻹GDP뗄쟺쿟맘쾵ꆢ탎ힴ쫇럱틲캪뿘훆뇤솿뗄볓죫뛸랢짺뇤뮯,폈웤쫇쳘뚨쟺쿟뗄헛뗣쫇럱틲듋틆뚯ꆣ뗚뛾,뿉틔뾼달쿠맘뿘훆뇤솿뛔컛좾업럅뗄펰쿬ퟷ폃,늢틀듋살ퟛ뫏뾼달뮷뺳컛좾뗄뻶뚨틲쯘ꆣ뷡뫏틑폐쿠맘퇐뺿컄쿗뫍컒맺뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵,놾컄훷튪뾼싇쇋틔쿂냼삨죋뿚맦쒣ꆢ벼쫵뷸늽ꆢ헾뢮헾닟ꆢ쎳틗뾪럅틔벰닺튵뷡릹뗷헻퓚쓚뗄뿘훆뇤솿ꆣ18]11죋뿚맦쒣ꆣGrossmanandK[rueger쫗쿈횸돶쇋죋뿚맦쒣뛔뮷뺳훊솿ꆢ컛좾업럅뗄펰쿬ꆣ쿔좻,쒳튻뗘쟸죋뿚맦쒣풽듳,틢캶ퟅ룃뗘쟸폫뮷뺳컛좾쿠맘뗄짺닺ꆢ쿻럑믮뚯튲쿠펦풽뛠,벴죋뿚맦쒣뛔컛좾업럅듦퓚헽뗄맦쒣킧펦ꆣ놾컄폃죋뿚쏜뛈살뛈솿죋뿚맦쒣킧펦,쒳뗘쟸죋뿚쏜뛈뗈폚죋뿚ퟜ쫽폫룃뗘쟸쏦믽횮뇈,떥캻캪잧죋쎿욽랽릫샯,볇캪pop,쫽뻝룹뻝쿠펦룷웚ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ볆쯣뛸뗃ꆣ뿉틔풤웚(1)쪽훐pop맀볆쾵쫽캪헽ꆣ21벼쫵뷸늽ꆣ벼쫵뷸늽뛔뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵뻟폐훘튪펰쿬,벼쫵뷸늽킧펦훷튪쳥쿖퓚솽랽쏦:튻쫇횱뷓킧펦,벴쯦ퟅ죋뻹쫕죫뗄쳡룟ꆢ뺭볃뗄랢햹,죋쏇폐뿉쓜퓶볓뛔뮷놣벼쫵뗄퇐랢춶죫ꆢ릺싲룼폐샻폚뮷뺳쟥뷠뗄훐볤짨놸뗈ꆣ틲듋뮷놣벼쫵뗄뷸늽ꆢ뮷놣퇐랢춶죫횱뷓쳡룟쇋뮷놣솦뛈,놾컄폃룷뗘쟸폫뮷뺳쿠맘뗄뿆퇐뿎쳢뺭럑춶죫살뛈솿벼쫵뷸늽뗄횱뷓킧펦,떥캻캪틚풪,볇캪envrdꆣ뛾쫇볤뷓킧펦,벼쫵뷸늽뛔뮷뺳훊솿뗄볤뷓펰쿬쳥쿖퓚벼쫵뷸늽뛔뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽뗄뇤ꆢ뛔닺튵뷡릹뗄뗷헻폫폅뮯랽쏦,틲듋헢쫇룼캪맣틥뗄튻냣벼쫵뷸늽뗄펰쿬킧펦,놾컄폃룷뗘쟸헾뢮닆헾뿆퇐횧돶살뛈솿벼쫵뷸늽뗄볤뷓킧펦,떥캻캪틚풪,볇캪grdꆣ쫽뻝살풴폚ꆶ훐맺뮷뺳쓪본ꆷ쿠펦룷웚ꆣ31뮷놣헾닟ꆣ헾뢮헾닟뛔뮷뺳놣뮤뗄볠뚽폫맜훆쫇펰쿬뮷뺳컛좾업럅뗄훘튪틲쯘,놾컄폃룷뗘쟸샛볆뮷뺳뇪ힼ냤랢룶쫽살뛈솿뮷놣헾닟킧펦,냼삨컛좾뮷뺳뇪ힼ룶쫽폫듳웸뮷뺳뇪ힼ룶쫽샛볆횮뫍,떥캻캪볾,볇캪nums,쫽뻝살풴폚ꆶ훐맺뮷뺳쓪본ꆷ쿠펦룷웚ꆣ41쎳틗뾪럅ꆣ룹뻝뇈뷏폅쫆풭샭,맺볊쎳틗뛔뮷뺳훊솿뗄펰쿬쪹컛좾쏜벯탍닺튵붫평랢듯맺볒틆떽랢햹훐맺볒,믲쫇평뮷뺳맜훆뷏잿뗄맺볒틆떽맜훆뷏죵뗄맺볒[19]ꆣ틲듋,뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟쪵볊짏랴펳뗄쫇튵뮯럖릤쒣쪽뗄늻춬:랢듯맺볒튵뮯짺닺컛좾뷏뗍뗄닺욷,뛸랢햹훐맺볒퓲튵뮯짺닺풴ꆢ쓜풴쏜벯탍닺욷[20]ꆣ듦퓚맺볊쎳틗뛔뮷뺳컛좾믮뚯뗄ꆰ쳦듺킧펦ꆱ,튲돆ꆰ컛좾쳬쳃ꆱ볙쮵(Pol2lutionHavenHypothesis)ꆣ놾컄폃쎳틗뾪럅뛈,벴뷸돶뿚쎳틗뛮폫GDP횮뇈살뛈솿쎳틗뾪럅뗄뮷뺳킧펦,볇캪open,쫽뻝룹뻝쿠펦룷웚ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ볆쯣뛸뗃ꆣ51닺튵뷡릹ꆣ뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫뿢쓹듄떹U탍쟺쿟뗄닺짺폫닺튵뷡릹뮯뷴쏜쿠맘:뺭볃랢햹돵웚뷗뛎뗄뺭볃웰량췹췹틢캶ퟅ릤튵퓚맺쏱뺭볃훐뗄뇈훘톸쯙짏짽,뛸릤튵뮯췹췹틢캶ퟅ뛔ퟔ좻풴뗄맽뛈닉랥틔벰럏웺업럅컯뗄톸쯙퓶볓[16](Dasguptaetal)ꆣ쯦ퟅ뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽뗄뇤ꆢ닺튵뷡릹뗄뗷헻폫폅뮯,릤튵퓚닺튵뷡릹훐뗄뇈훘붫늻퓙짏짽짵훁쿂붵,뛸럾컱튵뇈훘붫짏짽ꆣ헢튻뷗뛎뗄뺭볃랢햹붫늻퓙맽폚틀삵풴뗄뾪닉ꆢ쓜풴욷뗄쿻뫄,뛸쫇벼쫵룯탂ꆢ짺닺싊쳡룟틔벰맜샭ꆢퟩ횯탎쪽뗄뒴탂,듳듳뮺뷢쇋릤튵짺닺뗄뮷놣톹솦ꆣ놾컄춬쪱폃얩튵햼GDP뗄뇈훘ꆢ릤튵햼GDP뗄뇈훘살뛈솿닺튵뷡릹뮯뗄뮷뺳킧펦,럖뇰볇캪shagriꆢshaind,쫽뻝룹뻝쿠펦룷웚ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ볆쯣뛸뗃ꆣ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
12닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆡꆡ2006쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆡퟜ뗚273웚샠쯆뗘,놾컄퓚닉폃쏦냥쫽뻝뛔냼삨쇋뿘훆뇤솿퓚쓚뗄(1)쪽뷸탐뷸튻늽맀볆쪱,웫탔닎쫽쒣탍폫만뚨킧펦쒣탍뻹닉폃뷘쏦볓좨믘맩램틔쿻돽뷘쏦틬랽닮컊쳢;쯦믺킧펦쒣탍퓲닉폃믹폚쯦믺킧펦뮯랽돌뗄GLS맀볆랽램ꆣ춬쪱,맀볆늽훨튲춬잰:쫗쿈뛔춬쪱냼삨쇋죋뻹GDP뗄욽랽쿮ꆢ솢랽쿮뗄랽돌뷸탐맀볆,늢룹뻝맀볆쾵쫽뗄t춳볆횵뫍Wald볬퇩살에뛏쫇럱듦퓚N쟺쿟믲떹N쟺쿟맘쾵ꆣ죧맻죋뻹GDP뗄솢랽쿮늻쿔훸,퓲뛔쳞돽쇋죋뻹GDP솢랽쿮뗄랽돌훘탂뷸탐맀볆ꆣ럖뇰뛔1996ꆪ2002쓪6샠컛좾횸뇪폫죋뻹GDP맘쾵뷸탐맀볆,뷡맻볻뇭6,뇭훐ퟮ뫳쯹룸뚨뗄맀볆쒣탍뚼쫇틀뻝잰쫶뗄F-test뫍Hausman볬퇩뷡맻살좷뚨ꆣ뇭6볓죫뿘훆뇤솿뫳뗄6샠컛좾업럅폫죋뻹GDP뗄맀볆뷡맻컛좾횸뇪indwaterindcodSO2indsmokeinddustindsolid맀볆쒣탍뇤뷘뻠쒣탍웫탔닎쫽쒣탍뇤뷘뻠쒣탍웫탔닎쫽쒣탍뇤뷘뻠쒣탍뇤뷘뻠쒣탍(FE)(FE)(FE)(FE)-21725-88125-72176-98177-44161372148C333333(-11335)(-11138)(-21730)(-713333333362)(-31311)(41194)4153214106201439105451358-221186agdp3333333(31106)(21333904)(8133383)(1185)(31195)(-51333263)-11008-101257-61193-3148-6118485018312agdp333333333333333(-31232)(-51349)(-31337)(-1169)(-51333089)(41027)10196111213agdp333(21780)(4133345)010001601271018070118901426-01312pop3333333333333(11971)(91259)(121358)(51497)(91187)(-11671)-0155811883151051158-215711180envrd33(2111)(01478)(0168)(017133)(21344)(01612)-011441173851792104319101481grd333333333333(51168)(7164)(10183)(6133359)(91924)(01436)01024-116175101321683-2157611682nums333(01435)(71051)(0179)(01446)(01581)(01957)01498-8160-25142-14119-81002-31012open333(01681333)(-21881)(-31741)(-31333304)(-11379)(-01857)0107511469111741134701523-41648shagri3333333333333333(11891)(11181)(2156)(41981)(21304)(-31007)010871141311821118940175311915shaind3333333333333333(31408)(10184)(41918)(81617)(31657)(11665)adj-R2019240168701684018040142801552prob(F-statistic)010000100001000010000100001000DꆤW113821173114801174119701133퇹놾210210210210210210쟺쿟탎ힴ떹U탍떹U탍N탍U탍N탍U탍TꆤP(풪/죋)21248016860118ꆢ31611300141ꆢ313221182F-statistic26102217918134119821914616109Hausman-test181631917621103231041714818182(튻)룷샠뿘훆뇤솿뛔컛좾업럅뗄펰쿬킧펦11맦쒣킧펦ꆣ평맀볆뷡맻뇭6뿉틔뾴떽,퓚놾컄쯹톡좡뗄6샠뮷뺳컛좾뛈솿횸뇪훐,5샠컛좾횸뇪맀볆랽돌훐뗄pop쾵쫽캪헽,늢룹뻝맀볆쾵쫽뻸뛔횵듳킡업탲틀듎캪0100016(indwater)ꆢ01807(SO2)ꆢ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뺭볃퓶뎤폫뮷뺳컛좾ꆪꆪꆪ뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟볙쮵뗄훐맺볬퇩1301426(inddust)ꆢ01271(indcod)ꆢ01189(indsmoke)ꋙꆣ헢튻뷡맻튲럻뫏죋쏇뗄튻냣풤웚:뷏듳맦쒣뗄죋뿚쫽솿췹췹틢캶ퟅ룼뛠뗄뺭볃믮뚯맦쒣,뛔뮷뺳놣뮤닺짺쇋췢퓚톹솦ꆣ힢틢떽놾컄쫇폃죋뿚쏜뛈살뛈솿죋뿚맦쒣뗄뮷뺳킧펦,틢캶ퟅ폫죋뿚맦쒣뗄뻸뛔쫽솿쿠뇈,죋뿚쏜뛈뿉쓜룼쓜쮵쏷죋뿚뇤뮯떼훂뗄뮷뺳톹솦ꋚꆣ룹뻝헢튻맀볆뷡맻,컒쏇뿉틔에뛏돶죋뿚쏜뛈뷏룟뗄뗘쟸(죧놱뺩ꆢ짏몣ꆢ붭쯕ꆢ맣뚫뗈)쏦쇙뗄뮷뺳놣뮤톹솦췹췹튪듳폚웤쯼뗘쟸ꆣ춬쪱,릤튵만쳥럏웺컯(indsolid)맀볆랽돌훐뗄pop튻쿮맀볆쾵쫽캪-01312,쟒춨맽10%쿔훸탔쮮욽볬퇩,헢튻뷡맻튲쳡탑컒쏇,쯤좻죋뿚쫽솿뗄퓶볓ꆢ죋뿚쏜벯뛈뗄쳡룟뛔컛좾업럅뗄맦쒣킧펦뿉쓜쫇튻룶튻냣쿖쿳,좻뛸뛔폚쒳킩쳘뚨컛좾컯업럅뛸퇔,튲뿉쓜늢늻럾듓헢튻헽뗄맦쒣킧펦맦싉ꆣ21벼쫵킧펦ꆣ죧잰쯹쫶,놾컄퓚뛈솿벼쫵뷸늽뛔뮷뺳컛좾뗄펰쿬쪱쟸럖쇋횱뷓벼쫵킧펦뫍볤뷓벼쫵킧펦,럖뇰폃envrd뫍grd뇭쪾ꆣ쫗쿈,맛달6샠맀볆뷡맻훐뗄envrd맀볆쾵쫽뫍t춳볆횵뿉틔랢쿖,릤튵럏쮮업럅솿뫍릤튵럛뎾업럅솿솽샠횸뇪훐뗄맀볆쾵쫽쿔훸캪뢺,횤쪵쇋뮷놣뿆퇐뺭럑뗄춶죫ꆢ뮷놣탍뗄벼쫵뷸늽뛔복짙컛좾업럅뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ좻뛸,웤쯻4샠컛좾횸뇪맀볆뷡맻훐뗄envrd맀볆쾵쫽뻹늻쿔훸,폖듓쇭튻룶뷇뛈쮵쏷쇋뻍놾컄쯹뾼달뗄퇹놾쫽뻝웚볤뛸퇔,폫뮷뺳쿠맘뗄뿆퇐뿎쳢뺭럑춶죫뗄퓶볓뮹쎻폐뛔복짙룷샠뮷뺳컛좾컯업럅솿웰떽폐킧뗄틖훆ퟷ폃ꆣ웤듎,맛달맀볆뷡맻훐grd뗄맀볆쾵쫽튲뿉틔뾴떽,돽쇋릤튵럏쮮업럅랽돌훐grd뗄맀볆쾵쫽쿔훸캪뢺(-01144)ꆢ릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅랽돌웤맀볆쾵쫽늻쿔훸횮췢(t춳볆횵뷶캪01436),웤쯻4샠컛좾랽돌훐grd뗄맀볆쾵쫽뻹퓚뷏룟뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽짏캪헽(쿔훸탔쮮욽뻹룟폚1%)ꆣ뷡뫏envrd뫍grd뗄맀볆뷡맻,뿉틔랢쿖늢늻쿱죋쏇쯹짨쿫뗄쓇퇹,벼쫵뷸늽뛔복짙뮷뺳컛좾업럅웰떽쇋쿔훸뗄틖훆ퟷ폃,짵훁믡떼훂컛좾컯업럅솿뗄짏짽ꆣ뿉쓜뗄뷢쫍폐죽뗣:뗚튻,벼쫵뷸늽뗄뛈솿횸뇪톡좡,힢틢떽놾컄쫇틔폫뮷뺳쿠맘뗄뿆퇐뿎쳢뺭럑춶죫ꆢ헾뢮닆헾뿆퇐횧돶살뫢솿벼쫵뷸늽,쫂쪵짏헢솽샠횸뇪훷튪쫇뛈솿쇋벼쫵뷸늽뗄춶죫랽쏦,뛸쎻폐랴펳돶벼쫵뷸늽뗄닺돶(샽죧샍뚯짺닺싊ꆢ좫튪쯘짺듦싊뗄쳡룟),틲캪뿆퇐뺭럑뗄퓶볓튲늢늻튻뚨틢캶ퟅ룼뛠뗄퇐랢닺돶ꆣ뗚뛾,폫뫪맛뗄뿆퇐뺭럑ꆢ뿆퇐횧돶쿠뇈,벼쫵뷸늽룼뛠뗘랢짺퓚캢맛웳튵닣쏦,폈웤쫇캢맛웳튵퓚뻶뚨쫇럱닉폃탂벼쫵ꆢ쳔청뻉짨놸쪱,췹췹쫇좡뻶폚웳튵ퟔ짭뗄샻죳ퟮ듳뮯뻶닟쒿뇪ꆣ뗚죽,퇐랢뛔뮷뺳훊솿뗄ퟷ폃뿉쓜늢늻쫇횱뷓뗄,뇈죧벼쫵뷸늽췹췹쫇춨맽룄뇤짺닺맽돌뗄튪쯘춶죫뇈샽믲헟쫇튪쯘쏜벯뛈살펰쿬컛좾업럅솿뗄,틲듋룼캪ힼ좷뗘뛈솿벼쫵뷸늽뛔뮷뺳놣뮤뗄ퟷ폃뮹펦룃냑헢튻샠볤뷓킧펦뾼싇퓚쓚ꋛꆣ31뮷놣헾닟ꆣ쯤좻죋쏇웕뇩죏캪헾뢮헾닟뛔뮷뺳컛좾뗄볠뚽폫맜훆쫇뿘훆컛좾뗄뇘튪쫖뛎,좻뛸놾컄맀볆뷡맻쿔쪾횱뷓뗄헾뢮뮷놣듫쪩늢캴듯떽폐킧뗄쒿뗄:돽쇋릤튵럏쮮훐컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿랽돌훐nums훐뗄맀볆쾵쫽쿔훸캪뢺틔췢,웤쯻5샠컛좾랽돌nums맀볆쾵쫽뚼캴쓜춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩ꆣ죧뫎샭뷢헢튻뷡맻쓘?쫗쿈,헽죧죋쏇뛔헾뢮헾닟쪵쪩(냼삨닆헾헾닟ꆢ믵뇒헾닟뗈)뗄웕뇩훊틉,헾뢮뛔뮷놣뇪ힼ뗄횱뷓맦뚨듫쪩쫇럱폐킧,뮹좡뻶폚캢맛룶쳥(컛좾웳튵)뗄풤웚랴펦ꆢ탅쾢늻뛔돆듸살뗄볠뚽쓑쳢틔벰룟낺뗄맜훆돉놾,폈웤쫇헾뢮췹췹튲쏦쇙ퟅ퇏룱맜훆쯹듸살뗄돉놾폫쫕틦뻶닟컊쳢,펰쿬쇋헾뢮횱뷓뗄뮷놣맜훆헾닟뗄쪵쪩킧맻ꆣ웤듎,헾닟뗄톡퓱컊쳢ꆣ퓚폐킧뗄컛좾닺좨뷧뚨뫍쫐뎡붻틗쳥훆쿂,웳튵컛좾업럅쯹닺짺뗄뢺췢늿킧펦쓜릻춨맽컛좾좨뗄쫐뎡붻틗뷸탐쓚늿뮯,듋쪱늢늻탨튪헾뢮뗄횱뷓헾닟룉풤ꆣ틲듋,폫헾뢮횱뷓춨맽냤늼뮷놣뇪ힼ뗄ퟶ램쿠뇈,춨맽헾뢮헾닟살냯훺쏷좷컛좾닺좨ꆢ엠폽폐킧뗄쫐뎡붻틗믺훆뗈볤뷓듫쪩뿉쓜뻟폐룼뫃뗄헾닟킧맻ꆣ41쎳틗뾪럅ꆣ룹뻝ꆰ컛좾쳬쳃ꆱ볙쮵,쎳틗뾪럅뛔랢듯맺볒ꆢ랢햹훐맺볒뗄뮷뺳훊솿뗄펰쿬킧펦쫇늻춬뗄,웤풭틲맘볼퓚폚웤뇈뷏폅쫆폫맺볊럖릤쒣쪽뗄쟸뇰:맺볊쎳틗뗄뾪햹쪹뗃랢듯맺볒룼틗폚붫쓇킩쓜풴/풴쏜벯탍ꆢ컛좾퇏훘뗄닺튵틆떽랢햹훐맺볒,틲듋헢훖맺볊럖릤쇓쫆쪹뗃쎳틗뾪럅뿉쓜믡ꋙ힢틢떽폫웤쯻5샠컛좾뇤솿늻춬,릤튵럏쮮업럅솿뗄떥캻캪틚뛖,틲듋붫솿룙맩튻뫳뿉틔랢쿖죋뿚쏜벯뛈뛔릤튵럏쮮업럅펰쿬뗄맦쒣킧펦뻸뛔횵ퟮ듳ꆣꋚ폫죋뿚쫽솿뗄뻸뛔맦쒣쿠뇈,폃죋뿚쏜뛈살뛈솿죋뿚뇤뮯뗄뮷뺳킧펦뗄좱뗣퓚폚,죋뿚쏜뛈췹췹폫뺭볃랢햹쮮욽쿠맘돌뛈뷏룟,벴뺭볃랢햹쮮욽풽룟뗄뗘쟸웤죋뿚쏜뛈튲쿠펦풽듳ꆣꋛ쿠맘컄쿗뛠틔놾/샍뚯솦뗄뇈횵살뛈솿,평폚쓑틔ힼ좷뗘뛈솿쒳튻뗘쟸뗄놾듦솿,틲듋놾컄늢쎻폐붫헢튻뇤솿냼삨퓚맀볆랽돌훐ꆣ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
14닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆡꆡ2006쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆡퟜ뗚273웚볓뻧랢햹훐맺볒뗄뮷뺳뛱뮯컊쳢ꆣ좻뛸,맛달뇭6맀볆뷡맻훐쎳틗뾪럅뛈opne뗄맀볆쾵쫽뿉틔랢쿖,돽쇋솽샠컛좾횸뇪(릤튵럏쮮업럅ꆢ릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅)랽돌뗄open쾵쫽쎻폐춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩횮췢,웤쯻4샠컛좾횸뇪랽돌훐open쾵쫽뚼쿔훸캪뢺,틀듎캪-25142(SO2)ꆢ-14119(indsmoke)ꆢ-8160(in2dcod)ꆢ-81002(inddust)ꆣopen쾵쫽캪뢺뗄뺭볃몭틥쫇:쎳틗뾪럅뛈뗄쳡룟폐훺폚복짙뮷뺳컛좾컯뗄업럅솿,헢뻍뗃떽쇋폫ꆰ컛좾쳬쳃ꆱ볙쮵쿠랴뗄뷡싛,틲캪룹뻝뇈뷏폅쫆풭샭,컒맺뻟폐튪쯘�뢳폅쫆뗄쓜풴/풴쏜벯탍ꆢ샍뚯쏜벯탍닺욷돶뿚췹췹쫇컛좾뢺ퟷ폃뷏듳뗄닺튵ꆣ죧뫎뷢쫍헢튻쿖쿳?뇊헟죏캪틔쿂솽뗣쫇훷튪풭틲:뗚튻,뛠뇟쎳틗첸에ꆢ쎳틗킭틩뗄잩뚩,폈웤쫇폫뮷놣쿠맘뗄쎳틗킭틩볤뷓뗘듙뷸쇋랢햹훐맺볒뛔뮷놣탍탂벼쫵뗄뾪랢뫍닉폃ꆣ랢듯맺볒뛔웤돶뿚짌욷뗄뮷뺳훊솿뇪ힼ튪쟳,웈쪹랢햹훐맺볒볓듳쇋탂탍벼쫵뗄뾪랢ꆢ뮷놣탍짺닺벼쫵뗄쪹폃ꆣ뗚뛾,쎳틗뾪럅뗄벼쫵췢틧킧펦쳡룟쇋랢햹훐맺볒뗄튪쯘짺닺싊뫍벼쫵쮮욽,듓뛸볤뷓뗘춨맽펰쿬벼쫵뷸늽뫍닺튵뷡릹뗷헻뛸ퟷ폃폚컛좾업럅ꆣ훚뛠컄쿗퇐뺿횸돶쇋쎳틗뾪럅뛔뚫뗀맺떱뗘웳튵뗄벼쫵췢틧ퟷ폃[21],뛔컒맺뷸ꆢ돶뿚쎳틗뗄쪵횤럖컶튲횤쪵쇋헢튻뗣[22],틲듋돽쇋ꆰ컛좾쳬쳃ꆱ볙쮵틔췢,쎳틗뾪럅튲뿉쓜춨맽헽뗄벼쫵췢틧킧펦뛸ퟷ폃폚뮷뺳컛좾업럅ꆣ뗚죽,탨튪횸돶뗄쫇,퓚쎳틗뾪럅뛔컛좾업럅뗄믹뒡짏,뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿펦룃럖컶쎳틗뷡릹뇤뮯뛔컛좾업럅뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ51닺튵뷡릹뇤뮯ꆣ뇭6뗄맀볆뷡맻횤쪵쇋닺튵뷡릹뇤뮯쫇펰쿬컛좾업럅뗄훘튪틲쯘,퓚6샠컛좾랽돌훐shagriꆢshaind솽쿮뇤솿뗄맀볆쾵쫽뚼춨맽쇋쿔훸탔볬퇩,뛸쟒돽쇋릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅랽돌훐뗄shagri쾵쫽캪뢺틔췢,웤쯻컛좾랽돌훐맀볆쾵쫽뻹캪헽,뇭쏷얩튵ꆢ릤튵퓚GDP쯹햼뇈훘뗄쿂붵쓜릻붵뗍뮷뺳컛좾뗄업럅솿ꆣ춬쪱,뇈뷏shagriꆢshaind뗄맀볆쾵쫽,컒쏇뮹뿉틔랢쿖뻍놾컄쯹톡좡뗄컛좾횸뇪뛸퇔,릤튵쯹닺짺뗄컛좾뢺ퟷ폃튪듳폚얩튵ꆣ뇭7맩쓉쇋5샠컛좾랽돌훐뗄shaind쾵쫽폫shagri쾵쫽횮뇈,뿉틔뾴떽돽쇋릤튵럏쮮훐컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿뗄릤튵/얩튵쿠뛔컛좾쾵쫽킡폚1틔췢,웤쯻4샠컛좾랽돌뗄릤튵/얩튵쿠뛔컛좾쾵쫽뻹쿔훸듳폚1,웤훐뛾퇵뮯쇲랽돌훐릤튵닺짺뗄컛좾업럅쾵쫽튪룟돶얩튵컛좾쾵쫽뗄튻냫뛠ꆣ뇭7릤튵/얩튵뗄쿠뛔컛좾쾵쫽indwaterindcodSO2inddustindsmoke쿠뛔컛좾쾵쫽111601962115511143811406(뛾)탂뗄뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫쟺쿟맘쾵룹뻝뇭6맀볆뷡맻컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽볓죫쇋컛좾뿘훆뇤솿횮뫳뗄6샠탂뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫쟺쿟맘쾵럖뇰죧쿂:211릤튵럏쮮업럅솿:indwater=-21725+41532agdp-11008agdpꆣ틲듋탂뗄릤튵럏쮮업럅솿폫죋뻹GDP횮볤쫇튻훖떹U탍쟺쿟맘쾵,뷸튻늽볆쯣룃쟺쿟뗄헛뗣캻폚죋뻹GDP21248췲풪ꆣ21릤튵럏쮮훐컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿:indcod=2-88125+14106agdp-101257agdp,뇭쏷웤폫죋뻹GDP뻟폐떹U탍쟺쿟맘쾵,볆쯣룃쟺쿟뗄헛뗣뿉뗃쇙뷧횵캪01686췲풪/죋ꆣ2331릤튵럛뎾업럅솿:inddust=-44161+451358agdp-611848agdp+11121agdp,뻝듋뿉틔에뛏릤튵럛뎾업럅솿폫죋뻹GDP쫇튻훖N탍쟺쿟맘쾵,뛸쟒룃쟺쿟뗄솽룶헛뗣럖뇰캪0141췲풪/죋뫍3132췲풪/죋ꆣ41릤튵퇌뎾업럅솿2:indsmoke=-98177+9105agdp-3148agdp,뇭쏷indsmoke폫죋뻹GDP횮볤뻟폐떹U탍쟺쿟맘쾵,춬쪱룃쟺쿟헛뗣캻폚113췲풪/죋ꆣ2351뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅ퟜ솿:SO2=-72176+20143agdp-61193agdp+10196agdp,샠쯆폚릤튵럛뎾업럅,탂뗄뛾퇵뮯쇲폫죋뻹GDP횮볤튲쫇튻훖N탍쟺쿟맘쾵,늢뿉볆쯣돶룃쟺쿟뗄솽룶헛뗣럖뇰캪0118췲풪/죋ꆢ316췲풪/죋ꆣ61릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅솿:indsolid=372148-221186agdp+2501831agdp,뿉틔에뛏indsolid폫죋뻹' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뺭볃퓶뎤폫뮷뺳컛좾ꆪꆪꆪ뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟볙쮵뗄훐맺볬퇩15GDP횮볤쫇튻훖U탍쟺쿟맘쾵,웤헛뗣캻폚21182췲풪/죋ꆣ컒쏇맘탄뗄훷튪컊쳢쫇퓚볓죫펰쿬컛좾업럅뗄쾵쇐뿘훆뇤솿횮뫳,뗃떽뗄탂뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫쟺쿟탎ힴ폫쎻폐뾼싇뿘훆뇤솿쟩뿶쿂뗄쟺쿟횮볤뗄쟸뇰,뇭8쇐돶쇋솽샠맀볆뷡맻뗄뛔헕ꆣ뇭8솽샠뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫쟺쿟맀볆뷡맻뇈뷏뗚튻샠맀볆뷡맻뗚뛾샠맀볆뷡맻컛좾업럅컯쏻돆쟺쿟탎ힴ헛뗣(뻹GDP)쟺쿟탎ힴ헛뗣(뻹GDP)릤튵럏쮮업럅솿떹U탍21465췲풪떹U탍21248췲풪릤튵럏쮮훐컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿쿟탔(ꇽ)NA떹U탍01686췲풪(COD)릤튵럛뎾업럅솿N탍11267췲풪ꆢ314췲풪N탍0141췲풪ꆢ3132췲풪릤튵퇌뎾업럅ퟜ솿쿟탔(ꇽ)NA떹U탍113췲풪뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅ퟜ솿떹U탍01794췲풪N탍0168췲풪ꆢ316췲풪릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅솿U탍01647췲풪U탍21182췲풪ꆡꆡ힢:뗚튻샠맀볆뷡맻횸쎻폐냼삨뿘훆뇤솿퓚쓚뗄뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫솽헟볲떥맘쾵뗄맀볆;뗚뛾샠맀볆뷡맻퓲쫇냼삨쇋뿘훆뇤솿퓚쓚뗄맀볆ꆣ뇈뷏뇭8쯹쇐돶뗄6샠컛좾랽돌뗄맀볆뷡맻,컒쏇뿉틔붫웤맩쓉캪틔쿂솽훖쟩뿶:11뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫쟺쿟탎ힴ쎻폐랢짺룄뇤ꆣ헢훖쟩뿶냼삨3샠컛좾횸뇪,럖뇰쫇릤튵럏쮮업럅(떹U탍)ꆢ릤튵럛뎾업럅(N탍)틔벰릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅(U탍)ꆣ평듋컒쏇뿉틔죏캪,벴쪹퓚뾼싇쇋펰쿬뮷뺳컛좾업럅뗄쾵쇐뿘훆뇤솿뗄ퟷ폃횮뫳,헢3샠컛좾폫죋뻹GDP횮볤뗄쟺쿟맘쾵튲쎻폐랢짺룄뇤,쫇튻훖뷏캪컈뚨뗄뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵ꆣ뛔폚헢3샠컛좾뛸퇔,죋뿚맦쒣ꆢ벼쫵뷸늽ꆢ쎳틗뾪럅ꆢ닺튵뷡릹틔벰헾뢮뮷놣헾닟뗈췢퓚틲쯘뗄뇤뮯쯹닺짺뗄펰쿬늢쎻폐룄뇤뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫횮볤뗄믹놾쟺쿟맘쾵,떫룄뇤쇋쳘뚨쟺쿟뗄캻훃,폈웤쫇헛뗣뗄쇙뷧횵ꆣ(1)뗚뛾샠맀볆뷡맻훐뗄릤튵럏쮮업럅떹U탍쟺쿟뗄헛뗣캪21248췲풪/죋,튪킡폚뗚튻샠맀볆뷡맻뗄21465췲풪/죋,솽룶죋뻹GDP쇙뷧횵뗄닮뻠(01217췲풪/죋)랴펳쇋뗚뛾샠맀볆랽돌훐웤쯻컛좾펰쿬틲쯘뛔룃떹U탍쟺쿟뗄ퟛ뫏펰쿬킧펦:춨맽닺튵뷡릹뗷헻ꆢ쎳틗뾪럅틔벰헾뢮뮷놣헾닟뗄쪵쪩뗈,붵뗍쇋릤튵럏쮮업럅폫죋뻹GDP뗄떹U탍쟺쿟뗄쇙뷧횵ꆣ뷸튻늽뛔헕뇭3쯹쇐돶뗄뗘쟸죋뻹GDP쪵볊횵,컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖룹뻝탂뗄떹U탍쟺쿟뇪ힼ,놱뺩틑뺭풽맽쇋쟺쿟뗄헛뗣,춬쪱쳬뷲(21212췲풪/죋)튲뷏캪뷓뷼룃헛뗣쇋ꆣ(2)솽샠맀볆뷡맻뚼뇭쏷릤튵럛뎾업럅솿폫죋뻹GDP횮볤쫇튻훖N탍쟺쿟맘쾵,좻뛸뛔뇈솽샠맀볆뷡맻훐룃쟺쿟뗄솽룶헛뗣캻훃,컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖폫뗚튻샠맀볆뷡맻헛뗣쟸볤랶캧쿠뇈(11267췲풪/죋,314췲풪/죋)뗚뛾샠맀볆뷡맻붫룃쟸볤랶캧듳듳뗘췘뿭캪(0141췲풪/죋,3132췲풪/죋)ꆣ튻룶폐틢쮼뗄쿖쿳쫇,붫놾컄톡좡뗄30룶쪡쫐죋뻹GDP폫(0141췲풪/죋,3132췲풪/죋)헢튻쟸볤쿠뇈,횻폐맳훝(01315췲풪/죋)폫짏몣솽룶뗘쟸쎻폐냼삨퓚룃랶캧쓚,틲듋,뺡맜뻍춳볆틢틥뛸퇔inddust폫죋뻹GDP횮볤쫇튻훖N탍쟺쿟맘쾵,좻뛸쫂쪵짏놾컄뻸듳뛠쫽퇹놾뗘쟸뗄inddust폫죋뻹GDP횮볤쫇튻훖뗝복뗄쿟탔맘쾵,벴죋뻹GDP뗄쳡룟붫붵뗍릤튵럛뎾컛좾뗄업럅솿ꋙꆣ(3)솽샠맀볆뷡맻튲춬쪱횤쪵쇋릤튵만쳥럏웺컯업럅솿폫죋뻹GDP횮볤뗄U탍쟺쿟맘쾵,좻뛸뗚뛾샠맀볆뷡맻훐룃쟺쿟헛뗣(21182췲풪/죋)폫뗚튻샠맀볆돶쿖쇋뷏듳닮틬(01647췲풪/죋),웤쿖쪵뺭볃몭틥쫇뛔폚쪵볊죋뻹GDP캻폚(01647췲풪/죋,21182췲풪/죋)헢튻쟸볤랶캧쓚뗄쪡쫐뛸퇔,헢솽샠맀볆뷡맻룸돶쇋쿠랴뗄뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵,뺡맜웤뛔뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵뗄ퟜ쳥쟷쫆믹놾뿌뮭튻훂ꆣꋙ헽죧잰쯹쫶,뗚튻샠맀볆뷡맻뗄뗚튻룶헛뗣(11267췲풪/죋)퓲쫇튻룶ꆰ뷏병ꆱ뗄쇙뷧횵뗣,틲캪룃쇙뷧횵잡뫃쟸럖쇋뚫늿퇘몣랢듯쪡럝폫훐컷늿쪡럝ꆣ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
16닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆡꆡ2006쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆡퟜ뗚273웚21뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫쟺쿟탎ힴ랢짺쇋룄뇤,냼삨릤튵럏쮮훐컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿ꆢ릤튵퇌뎾업럅ퟜ솿틔벰뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅ퟜ솿3샠컛좾랽돌ꆣ(1)릤튵럏쮮훐컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿폫죋뻹GDP맘쾵듓뗝복쿟탔맘쾵뇤캪떹U탍맘쾵ꆣ힢틢떽뗚뛾샠맀볆뷡맻훐떹U탍맘쾵뗄헛뗣캪01686췲풪/죋,틲듋솽샠맀볆뷡맻훷튪쫇뛔쿱맳훝ꆢ짂컷헢퇹뗄잷랢듯쪡쫐뗄뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵뷢쫍늻춬ꆣ(2)폫릤튵럏쮮훐컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿샠쯆,릤튵퇌뎾업럅ퟜ솿폫죋뻹GDP뗄맘쾵튲듓뗝복쿟탔맘쾵뇤캪떹U탍맘쾵;뛸쟒폫릤튵럏쮮훐컛좾컯뮯톧탨퇵솿쿠뇈,릤튵퇌뎾업럅떹U탍쟺쿟뗄헛뗣쿠뛔뷏룟(113췲풪/죋)ꆣ(3)뛾퇵뮯쇲업럅ퟜ솿폫죋뻹GDP뗄맘쾵듓떹U탍뇤캪N탍,떱좻,힢틢떽뗚뛾샠맀볆뷡맻훐N탍쟺쿟솽룶헛뗣럖뇰캪0168췲풪/죋폫316췲풪/죋,틲듋솽샠맀볆뷡맻뛔쿖쪵뺭볃훐룷뗘쟸뗄뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵뗄뷢쫍믹놾튻훂(뗚튻샠맀볆뷡맻훐헛뗣캪01794췲풪/죋)ꆣퟜ뷡헢3샠랢짺쇋쟺쿟맘쾵뇤뮯뗄컛좾랽돌맀볆뷡맻,컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖헢튻맦싉:폫쎻폐냼삨컛좾뿘훆뇤솿뗄볲떥뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵쿠뇈,뾼싇쇋컛좾뿘훆뇤솿펰쿬뗄맀볆뷡맻췹췹뷒쪾돶쇋뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫횮볤뗄럇쿟탔맘쾵ꆣ뛔폚indcodꆢinddust헢샠컛좾횸뇪뛸퇔,컒쏇뿉틔믹놾에뛏돶횮쯹틔퓚뗚튻샠맀볆뷡맻훐돶쿖쇋뗝복쿟탔뗄뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵,웤풭틲뻍퓚폚퓚볲떥뗄뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵맀볆훐,죋뻹GDP뇤뮯틑뺭늿럖뗘냼몬쇋닺튵뷡릹뗷헻ꆢ쎳틗뾪럅ꆢ벼쫵뷸늽틔벰헾뢮뮷놣헾닟뗈뿘훆뇤솿뗄펰쿬,튻떩냑뿘훆뇤솿뗄펰쿬ퟷ폃듓잰헟럖샫돶살,컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵듓볲떥뗄쿟탔맘쾵뇤캪쇋럇쿟탔맘쾵ꆣ틲듋,늻맜뾼싇쇋뿘훆뇤솿횮뫳뗄뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫쟺쿟맘쾵쫇럱랢짺쇋룄뇤,컒쏇뚼뿉틔뾴떽뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫맘쾵쫇죧뫎쫜떽웤쯻뿘훆뇤솿뗄펰쿬뗄,헢튻뗣뛔폚컒쏇샭뷢뮷뺳ꆪ쫕죫횮볤뗄맘쾵뇤뮯쳡릩쇋웴쪾,폈웤쫇죧뫎춨맽룄뇤뿘훆뇤솿살룄짆뮷뺳훊솿ꆢ붵뗍컛좾업럅ꆣ틔indcodꆢinddust캪샽,퓚뾼싇쇋뿘훆뇤솿횮뫳,뗚튻샠맀볆뷡맻뗄뗝복쿟탔맘쾵뇤캪쇋뗚뛾샠맀볆뷡맻뗄떹U탍맘쾵,헢뻍쳡탑컒쏇,뛔폚죋뻹GDP뷏뗍뗄잷랢듯쪡럝,웤컛좾업럅늢늻쿱뗚튻샠맀볆쯹쏨쫶뗄,붫쯦ퟅ죋뻹GDP뗄짏짽뛸복짙,뛸쫇횻폐퓚풽맽쒳튻룶쇙뷧횵횮뫳닅쓜돶쿖뗝복맘쾵ꆣퟮ뫳,뇈뷏놾컄쯹톡폃뗄7샠컛좾뿘훆뇤솿뗄맀볆뷡맻,컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖,ퟜ뗄뛸퇔,죋뿚맦쒣ꆢ죋뿚쏜벯뛈듦퓚떼훂컛좾업럅퓶볓뗄맦쒣킧펦,뛸헾뢮횱뷓뗄뮷뺳뇪ힼ뗄훆뚨늢쎻폐뛔컛좾업럅닺짺쿔훸뗄펰쿬ꆣ놾컄쪵횤뷡맻튲쎻폐횧돖쎳틗뾪럅뛔랢햹훐맺볒컛좾업럅뗄ꆰ컛좾쳬쳃ꆱ볙쮵,떫헢튻뷡맻뗄뷸튻늽쾸뮯뮹펦룃붫쎳틗뷡릹뇤뮯틔벰췢웳튵뗄펰쿬냼삨퓚쓚ꆣ폫닺튵뷡릹뇤뮯쿠뇈,벼쫵뷸늽뛔컛좾업럅뗄ퟷ폃뮹늻쿔훸,튻룶훘튪뗄뷢쫍퓚폚컛좾업럅뗄붵뗍늻뷶뷶좡뻶폚췢퓚뗄벼쫵쮮욽(냼삨튻냣벼쫵폫업컛ꆢ훎컛벼쫵),룼맘볼퓚폚캢맛웳튵쫇럱폐ퟣ릻뗄벤샸뫍뚯솦좥쪹폃뮷놣탍벼쫵,틲캪뫳헟췹췹쫇캢맛웳튵ퟔ짭뗄샻죳ퟮ듳뮯뻶닟뗄뷡맻ꆣ틲듋,헾뢮퓚컛좾훎샭랽쏦췹췹룼탨튪튻룶엤쳗헾닟,벴늻뷶뷶캪탂벼쫵ꆢ쟥뷠탍벼쫵뗄퇐랢쳡릩횧돖,룼튪캪캢맛웳튵쳡릩췢퓚뗄벤샸살듙뷸뮷놣탍벼쫵뗄췆맣폫쪹폃ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗:[1]ꆡMeadowsD1H,MeadowsD1L,RandersJ,andBehrensW1TheLimitstoGrowth[M]1UniverseBooks,NewYork,USA,19721[2]ꆡBeckermanW1Economicgrowthandtheenvironment:whosegrowth?Whoseenvironment[J]1WorldDevelopment,1992,(20):481-4961[3]ꆡBhagawatiJ1Thecaseforfreetrade[J]1ScientificAmerican,1993142-491[4]ꆡKuznetsS1EconomicGrowthandIncomeEquality[J]1AmericanEconomicReview,1955,45(1):1-281[5]ꆡGrossmanG1andKruegerA1EnvironmentalimpactsoftheNorthAmericanFreeTradeAgreement1NBER,workingpa2per,no13914,19911[6]ꆡSternD1ProgressontheenvironmentalKuznetscurve[J]1EnvironmentandDevelopmentEconomics,1998,(3):175-1981[7]ꆡPanayotouT1EconomicGrowthandtheEnvironment1CenterforInternationalDevelopment,HarvardUniversity,CIDWorkingPaperNo156,July20001[8]ꆡDindaS1EnvironmentalKuznetsCurveHypothesis:ASurvey[J]1EcologicalEconomics,2004,(49):431-4551[9]ꆡListJ1andGalletC1TheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurve:doesonesizefitall[J]1EcologicalEconomics,1999,(31):409' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뺭볃퓶뎤폫뮷뺳컛좾ꆪꆪꆪ뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟볙쮵뗄훐맺볬퇩17-4231[10]ꆡLiangJ1andMcKitrickR1IncomegrowthandairqualityinToronto:1973ꆪ19971Mimeo,UniversityofGuelph,Eco2nomicsDepartment,20021[11]ꆡHuangM1andShawD1EconomicgrowthandtheenvironmentalKuznetscurveinTaiwan:asimultaneitymodelanalysis,Mimeo,20021[12]ꆡCoondooD1andDindaS1Causalitybetweenincomeandemission:acountrygroup-specificeconometricanalysis[J]1EcologicalEconomics,2002,40(3),351-3671[13]ꆡSternD1TheriseandfalloftheenvironmentalKuznetscurve[J]1WorldDevelopment,2004,(8):1419-14391[14]ꆡArrowK,BolinB,CostanzaR,FolkeC1etal1Economicgrowth,carryingcapacity,andtheenvironment[J]1Science,1995,(15):91-951[15]ꆡColeM,RaynerA,andBatesJ1TheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurve:anempiricalanalysis[J]1EnvironmentandDevel2opmentEconomics,1997,(2):401-4161[16]ꆡDasguptaS,LaplanteB,WangH,andWheelerD1ConfrontingtheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurve[J]1JournalofEco2nomicPerspectives,2002,16(1),147-1681[17]ꆡGallagherK1S1Developmentofcleanervehicletechnology?ForeigndirectinvestmentandtechnologytransferfromUnitedStatestoChina,paperpresentedatUnitedStatesSocietyforEcologicalEconomndics2BiennialMeeting,SaratogaSpringsNY,May,20031[18]ꆡGrossmanG1andKruegerA1Economicgrowthandtheenvironment[J]1QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,1995,110(2),353-3771[19]ꆡCopelandB1andTaylorM1TradeandTransboundaryPollution[J]1AmericanEconomicReview,1995,(85):716-7371[20]ꆡColeM,ElliottR,andAzharA1Thedeterminantsoftradeinpollutionintensiveindustries:North-Southevidence1U2niversityofBirmingham,UK1Mimeo,20001[21]ꆡKellerW1InternationalTechnologySpillover1NBER,workingpaper,No18573,20011[22]ꆡ삵쏷폂,헅탂,역쮮뻼,냼좺1뺭볃퓶뎤뗄풴좪:죋솦놾ꆢ퇐뺿뾪랢폫벼쫵췢틧[J]1훐맺짧믡뿆톧,2005,(2)1EconomicGrowthandEnvironmentalPollution:AnEmpiricalTestfortheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurveHypothesisinChinaPENGShui2jun,BAOQun(SchoolofEconomics,NankaiUniversity,Tianjing300071,China)Abstract:TheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurve(EKC)hypothesispostulatesaninverted-U-shapedrelationshipbetweendiffer2entpollutionsandpercapitaincome,i1e1,environmentalpressureincreasesuptoacertainlevelasincomegoesup;afterthat,itdecreases1ThispaperusespaneldataonChina’s30provincesduring1996ꆪ2002toexaminetheEKCrelationshipbetweenpercapitaincomeandsixcategoriesmeasuredpollutionindicators1Wefindthattheresultsarehighlysensitivetodifferentpollutionindicators,functionalformsandeconometricmethodsemployed1Thenweincorporatesomedimensionsofsocialchangessuchaspopulationdensity,tradeopenness,environmentalpolicies,technologyprogress,andindustrialstructurechange,intoourmodeltoinvestigatetheimpactofvariousexogenouscontrolvariablesontheEKC,whichcanbevariedalongthedevelopmentprocessdependingontheincomelevel1KeyWords:economicgrowth;pollutionemission;environmentalkuznetscurve;paneldataestimation(퓰죎뇠벭:폚헱죙)' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
