뗚10뻭뗚3웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ컷놱얩쇖뿆벼듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)쓪5퓂JournalofNorthwestA&FUniversity(SocialScienceEdition)May2010닺볛룱ꆢ춨믵엲헍벰믵뇒헾닟뮥뚯믺훆뗄쪵횤퇐뺿3퇮놦뎼,쯕퓆열(쳬뷲듳톧맜샭톧풺,쳬뷲ꆡ300072)ꆡꆡ햪ꆡ튪:샻폃슥쫐횸쫽ꆢ막쫐횸쫽ꆢCPI틔벰쫐뎡믹ힼ샻싊뗄퓂뛈쫽뻝뛔닺볛룱ꆢ춨믵엲헍틔벰믵뇒헾닟횮볤뗄쿠맘탔벰쿠뮥ퟷ폃믺훆뷸탐쇋쾵춳뚨솿럖컶,뷡싛뇭쏷:닺볛룱맽뿬엲헍믡떼훂춨믵엲헍;뛸춨믵엲헍폖듙쪹룼뛠뷰쇷죫놾쫐뎡,볓훘놾쫐뎡뗄맽죈쿖쿳;늢뷸뛸잿뮯쇋헾뢮뗄쇷뚯탔맽쪣풤웚,듙쪹헾뢮춨맽쫕뷴믵뇒헾닟살욽틖닺볛룱뗄맽뿬엲헍,틔쿻돽춨믵엲헍ꆣ듋췢,놾컄춨맽쿲솿컳닮탞헽쒣탍솿뮯닻쫍쇋죽헟횮볤뗄뎤웚뻹뫢맘쾵뫍뛔폚쾵춳늻뻹뫢뗄뗷헻맦싉ꆣ맘볼듊:닺볛룱;춨믵엲헍;믵뇒헾닟;뮥뚯믺훆훐춼럖샠뫅:ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:A컄헂뇠뫅:1009-9107(2010)03-0051-05ꆡꆡ튻ꆢ틽퇔폫막욱볛룱,붫웤삩햹캪뷰죚ힴ뿶횸쫽,늢뗃떽쇋맣랺펦폃ꆣ췵뫣[9]ꆢ럢놱[10]ꆢ슽뻼뗈[11]첽쳖쇋맣틥뷼킩쓪살,룷맺헾뢮뫍톧헟룱췢맘힢닺볛룱,폈웤쫇랿뗘닺뫍막쫐볛룱뗄늨뚯,틲캪랿뗘닺뫍막춨믵엲헍횸쫽퓚훐맺뗄릹붨뫍펦폃;뗚뛾룶랽쿲쫇욱볛룱늨뚯퓚틔췹춨믵엲헍훐웰떽쇋쿈탐횸쪾웷뗄퇐뺿닺볛룱늨뚯뛔캴살춨믵엲헍뗄펰쿬틔벰솽헟ퟷ폃ꆣ횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ죧Filardo[1],Goodhart뫍Hof2[1]닺볛룱뇤뮯랴펳돶캴살짌욷뫍럾컱뗄볛룱풤웚[2],늢뿉춨맽닆뢻킧펦ꆢ춶킧펦벰뷰죚볓쯙mann[8]틔벰Tkacz뫍Wilkin[12]s퇐뺿뇭쏷,닺볛웷킧펦펰쿬ퟜ탨쟳,뷸뛸펰쿬춨믵엲헍ꆣ[3]평폚춨믵룱쫇캴살춨믵엲헍뗄폐폃횸쪾웷ꆣKontonikas뫍Mon]컈뚨쫇믵뇒헾닟뗄훷튪짵훁캨튻쒿뇪,틲듋닺볛룱tagno[13li퓲랢쿖닺볛룱늨뚯폫캴살춨믵엲뇤뚯퓚믵뇒헾닟훐뗄ퟷ폃쫇튻룶?탨퇐뺿뗄컊쳢ꆣ헍룟뛈헽쿠맘ꆣ퓚맺쓚,뗔잿[2],틗룙뫍췵헙[14]틔벰맹쳯폂[15]맘폚닺볛룱폫춨믵엲헍맘쾵뗄퇐뺿훷튪퇘솽죏캪닺볛룱늨뚯믡뛔춨믵엲헍닺짺룶랽쿲펰쿬,떫횻폐듯떽펰쿬춨믵풤웚뗄돌뛈쪱퇫탐닅믡,뗚튻룶랽쿲쫇첽쳖쫇럱붫닺볛룱쓉죫맣틥뗄춨믵엲헍횸뇪훐틔벰죧뫎붫룃횸뇪펦폃폚쪵ퟶ돶랴펦,좻뛸늢쎻폐뚨솿룸돶믵뇒헾닟뗄뒥랢뗣ꆣ볹ꆣF[4]isherퟮ퓧뛔닺볛룱폫춨믵엲헍맘쾵뷸탐싀붭쇖[16]뻍듋컊쳢뷸탐쇋쪵횤퇐뺿,늢뗃돶컒맺믵퇐뺿뇒헾닟펦떱뛔막쫐볛룱뇤뚯ퟶ돶랴펦뗄뷡싛ꆣ,쳡돶퓚춨믵엲헍닢솿훐쓉죫닺볛룱,듓뛸룼뫃뗘랴펳볛룱쮮욽ꆣ듋쮼쿫뗃떽쇋Alchian뫍맺쓚쿖폐퇐뺿뗄늻ퟣ훷튪퓚폚쎻폐붫닺볛Klein[5]ꆢShibuy[6]7]aꆢShiratsuk[a틔벰Goodhart뫍룱ꆢ춨믵엲헍틔벰믵뇒헾닟쓉죫떽튻룶춳튻뗄쾵춳Hofmann[8]뗄볌돐뫍랢햹ꆣ웤훐,Goodhart뫍훐뷸탐퇏룱뗄뚨솿럖컶ꆣ본폚듋,놾컄붫닺볛룱ꆢHofmann[8]퓚믵뇒ힴ뿶횸쫽믹뒡짏볓죫랿뗘닺볛룱춨믵엲헍틔벰믵뇒헾닟훃폚튻룶춳튻뗄럖컶뿲볜3쫕룥죕웚:2009211213믹뷰쿮쒿:맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿(70841020);뷌폽늿죋컄짧믡뿆톧맦뮮믹뷰쿮쒿(05JA790059)ퟷ헟볲뷩:퇮놦뎼(1966-),쓐,뫓놱쳆즽죋,쳬뷲듳톧맜샭톧풺뷌쫚,늩쪿짺떼쪦,훷튪퇐뺿랽쿲캪뺭볃폫뷰죚볆솿랽램ꆢ뷰죚릤돌폫릫쮾뷰죚ꆣ
52ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ컷놱얩쇖뿆벼듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚10뻭쓚,퓋폃룱삼뷜틲맻볬퇩뛔죽헟횮볤뗄쿠맘탔틔벰럾컱볛룱뗄풤웚,듓뛸떼훂룼룟뗄춨믵엲헍싊ꆣ듋쿠뮥ퟷ폃맘쾵뷸탐럖컶,늢퓚킭헻볬퇩믹뒡짏,춨맽췢,닺볛룱뗄맽뿬짏헇듸살뗄쫕틦쟽뚯틔벰ꆰ뾹쿲솿컳닮탞헽쒣탍솿뮯닻쫍쇋죽헟횮볤뗄뎤웚뻹뫢헍ꆱ톹솦,훂쪹뷰듳솿쇷쿲럇쪵튵뺭볃,닺튵뺭볃맘쾵뫍뛔폚쾵춳늻뻹뫢뗄뗷헻맦싉ꆣ쯹탨뷰좴늻쓜뗃떽싺ퟣ,닺짺탩볙랱죙,뷸뛸탎돉ꆰ엝쒭뺭볃ꆱ,듸살뻞듳뗄뷰죚럧쿕,듓뛸펰쿬뺭볃퓶뛾ꆢ닺볛룱ꆢ춨믵엲헍벰믵뇒뎤뫍춨믵엲헍쒿뇪뗄쪵쿖(볻춼1)ꆣ본폚듋,헾뢮헾닟맘쾵뗄샭싛럖컶춨맽쿠펦뗄믵뇒헾닟뛔닺볛룱뗄뻧쇒늨뚯뷸탐룉풤ꆣ떱닺볛룱돶쿖듳럹늨뚯,폈웤쫇닺볛룱돖ꆡꆡ닺볛룱짏퇯죝틗틽웰춨믵엲헍,웤훷튪뗄믺탸뗍쏔쪱,뛔헾뢮ꆰ췐쫐ꆱ뗄튪쟳뻍믡춨맽룷훖쟾뗀훆캪:닺볛룱뗄짏헇춨맽닆뢻킧펦ꆢ췐뇶Q킧펦ꆢ뇭듯돶살,웈쪹헾뢮닉좡뿭쯉뗄믵뇒헾닟듌벤닺풤웚폫탅폃쟾뗀듙뷸쿻럑폫춶뗄뷏뿬퓶뎤,듓뛸볛룱짏헇;뛸떱닺볛룱맽뛈짏헇,뇭쿖돶엝쒭쟣쿲삭뚯ퟜ탨쟳,쪹컯볛뒦폚뷏룟뗄쮮욽ꆣ뛸헢튻맽돌쪱,돶폚뿘훆뷰죚럧쿕뗄뾼싇,헾뢮폖믡춨맽쫕뷴믵폖뷸튻늽떼훂룼룟뗄춨믵엲헍풤웚,풭틲퓚폚닺뇒헾닟,틖훆닺볛룱뗄맽뛈엲헍ꆣ볛룱뗄톸쯙짏헇,쪹뗃쮽죋늿쏅닺짺룼룟뗄짌욷폫춼1ꆡ닺볛룱ꆢ춨믵엲헍폫믵뇒헾닟맘쾵폚뇤솿볤뗄뢴릲쿟탔믡펰쿬룱삼뷜틲맻볬퇩뗄폐킧죽ꆢ닺볛룱ꆢ춨믵엲헍벰믵뇒헾닟탔[18],틲듋놾컄쫗쿈뛔뇤솿볤뗄뢴릲쿟탔뷸탐볬맘쾵뗄쪵횤럖컶퇩,랢쿖좫뇤솿쾵춳뗄뢴릲쿟탔쳵볾쫽캪,듦퓚훐뛈뢴릲쿟탔ꆣ뛸ퟮ듳쳵볾쫽틲ퟓ뛔펦뗄뇤솿ꆡꆡ(튻)퇹놾쫽뻝뗄톡좡폫뒦샭캪Nshidx뫍Nsheidx(릱쿗횵럖뇰캪뫍놾컄틔막쫐뫍슥쫐횸쫽ퟷ캪닺볛룱뗄듺샭뇤),틲듋에뚨Nshidx폫Nsheidx횮볤듦퓚뢴솿,CPIퟷ캪춨믵엲헍쾵쫽,늢틔쫐뎡믹ힼ샻싊ퟷ캪릲쿟탔ꆣ뷸튻늽,좥돽ퟮ듳쳵볾쫽틲ퟓ릱쿗횵ퟮ듳믵뇒헾닟뗄듺샭뇤솿,톡좡2004쓪1퓂훁2008쓪뗄뇤솿(짮횤돉럝횸쫽)뫳,뢴릲쿟탔볬퇩뷡맻쿔쪾8퓂웚볤슥쫐횸쫽ꆢ막쫐횸쫽ꆢCPI틔벰쫐뎡믹ힼ샻듋쪱쾵춳뗄뢴릲쿟탔쳵볾쫽캪,늻듦퓚뢴싊뗄퓂뛈쫽뻝ꆣ틔짏쫽뻝뻹살풴폚맺첩낲뫪맛뺭볃릲쿟탔ꆣ틲듋,뿉뷸튻늽뛔웤ퟷ룱삼뷜틲맻볬퇩ꆣ쫽뻝뿢(h본폚룱삼뷜틲맻볬퇩뗄뷡맻뛔훍뫳뎤뛈뗄쏴룐ttp://)ꆣ평폚놾컄퇐뺿뗄쫇슥쫐ꆢ막쫐ꆢCPI틔벰쫐뎡믹탔뫜듳,놾컄춨맽ퟛ뫏뾼싇AICꆢSBC뗈탅쾢ힼ퓲,ힼ샻싊횮볤뗄쿠맘탔벰웤쿠뮥ퟷ폃맘쾵,틲듋캪좥좡훍뫳뷗쫽k=2ꆣ룱삼뷜틲맻볬퇩뷡맻볻뇭1ꆣ돽솿룙펰쿬뇭1ꆡ쯄뇤솿ퟓ쾵춳룱삼뷜틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뇭,놾컄쫗쿈뛔쫽뻝뷸탐훐탄뇪ힼ뮯닙ퟷꆣ뒦샭뫳뗄슥쫐횸쫽ꆢ짏횤ퟛ뫏횸쫽ꆢ짮횤돉럝횸쫽ꆢ틲맻틔벰쫐뎡믹ힼ샻싊뇤솿럖뇰쏼쏻캪NHouseꆢ<ꆢNSheidxꆢNCPI틔벰Nrꆣ(뛾)닺볛룱ꆢ춨믵엲헍벰믵뇒헾닟볤쿠뮥ퟷ폃맘쾵럖컶ꆡꆡ힢:뇭훐쫽횵캪Pr>Chisq,튲벴쿔훸탔룅싊,웤횵풽듳,캪쇋럖컶슥쫐ꆢ막쫐ꆢCPI틔벰쫐뎡믹ힼ샻싊횮풽폐샭평뷓쫜컞룱삼뷜틲맻맘쾵볙짨볤뗄틲맻맘쾵,컒쏇뷸탐Grang[17]er틲맻볬퇩ꆣ평듋췢,평폚놾컄틽죫쇋헾닟탔뇤솿,뛸Granger
ꆡ뗚3웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ퇮놦뎼뗈:닺볛룱ꆢ춨믵엲헍벰믵뇒헾닟뮥뚯믺훆뗄쪵횤퇐뺿53틲맻탔뛔헾닟럖컶살쮵,볈늻쫇돤럖쳵볾튲늻쫇뇘쪱볤탲쇐쫇럱욽컈ꆣ뷡맻쿔쪾,퓚쿔훸탔ꛁ=튪쳵볾,틲캪쯼쎻폐뛔뇤솿뗄췢짺탔뷸탐럖쳵볾쿂,룷뇤솿탲쇐뻹캪I(1)탲쇐,맊뿉샻폃Jo2컶ꆣ[19,20]틲듋,놾컄뛔NHouseꆢNShidxꆢNSheidx벰hansen[22]킭헻볬퇩살좷뚨틔짏뇤솿쾵춳뗄쯦믺쟽Nr뷸탐죵췢짺탔볙짨볬퇩,뷡맻쿔쪾퓚ꛁ=쿔뚯쟷쫆룶쫽ꆣ놾컄쫗쿈볬퇩쇋좫늿뇤솿ퟩ돉뗄쾵훸탔쮮욽쿂,NHouseꆢNShidxꆢNSheidx벰Nr뗄춳,뷡맻랢쿖듦퓚3룶킭헻맘쾵,튲벴듦퓚솽룶쯦믺죵췢짺탔볙짨뻹놻뻜뻸,틲듋룷뇤솿뻹뛔뎤웚뻹뫢쟷쫆ꆣ좻뫳,놾컄폖볬닩쇋룷룶늻춬캬ퟓ쾵춳,뷡맻뗄뇤뚯ퟷ돶랴펦ꆣ랢쿖평슥쫐ꆢ짏횤ퟛ횸ꆢCPI틔벰쫐뎡믹ힼ샻싊ퟩ돉평뇭1뿉횪,퓚ꛁ=쿔훸탔쮮욽쿂,뗄쯄캬ퟓ쾵춳킭헻,튲벴횻듦퓚튻룶쯦믺쟷쫆,죧뇭NHouse뫍NShidx쫇NCPI뗄Granger풭틲,뛸2쯹쪾ꆣNCPI랴맽살폖쫇NHouse뫍NShidx뗄Granger뇭2ꆡ믹폚Johansen랽램뗄쯄캬ퟓ쾵춳킭헻볬퇩풭틲H0:RankH1:RankCritical,뇭쏷슥쫐뫍막쫐맽죈좷쪵쫇CPI돖탸ퟟ룟뗄EigenvalueTrace풭틲=r>rValue,뛸CPI돖탸룟캻퓋탐폖랴맽살듙쪹춶헟캪쇋놣횵쒿뗄붫룼뛠뗘뷰춶죫떽막쫐뫍슥쫐짏살,뷸튻늽볓훘쇋막쫐뫍슥쫐맽죈쿖쿳;듋췢,뫍NShidx쫇NCPI뗄Granger풭틲,뛸NShidx뫍폖쫇NHouse뗄Granger풭틲,뇭쏷막쫐ꆡꆡ힢:쇙뷧횵듺뇭5%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽,뛸3뇭쪾퓚룃볬퇩뫍슥쫐뗄맽죈쪹뗃헾뢮뗄뺭볃쇷뚯탔맽쪣풤웚볓훐풭볙짨퓚ꛁ=뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽짏펦놻뻜뻸훘,듓뛸듙쪹헾뢮닉좡틸룹뷴쯵헾닟,쳡룟믹ힼ샻2.컳닮탞헽쒣탍ꆣ평뇭2뿉횪,슥쫐ꆢ짏횤ퟛ싊,뛸막쫐뫍믹ힼ샻싊뛔슥쫐폖폐뫜듳뗄펰쿬,폈웤횸ꆢCPI틔벰쫐뎡믹ힼ샻싊횮볤듦퓚쒳훖뎤웚뻹뫢쫇ퟷ캪슥쫐쏼싶뗄짌튵듻뿮믹ힼ샻싊ꆣ막쫐맽죈퓚맘쾵,뿉춨맽붨솢쿲솿컳닮탞헽쒣탍살뚨솿뿌뮭헢튻뚨돌뛈짏듸뚯쇋슥쫐뗄럨헇,뛸돶폚룸맽죈뺭볃훖뻹뫢맘쾵ꆣ평폚쿲솿컳닮탞헽쒣탍뗄맀볆뷡맻뛔붵컂,컈뚨뺭볃퓋탐뗄쒿뗄,헾뢮쳡룟짌튵듻뿮믹ힼ훍뫳뷗쫽뫜쏴룐,틲듋놾컄춨맽ퟛ뫏뾼싇AICꆢSBC샻싊,폖욽틖쇋랿볛뗄맽뿬짏헇ꆣ뗈탅쾢ힼ퓲,좡훍뫳뷗쫽ꆣ늢캪볲솶웰볻,붫맀볆늻맽,듓뇭1뿉틔뾴떽,퓚ꛁ=쿔훸탔쮮욽돶뗄VECM(2)뗈볛룄킴캪VAR(2)쒣탍탎쪽,뷡쿂,NCPI뫍Nr횮볤늻듦퓚Granger틲맻맘쾵ꆣ헢맻볻뇭3ꆣ훷튪듦퓚솽랽쏦풭틲:(1)퇫탐뗄믵뇒헾닟뗷헻늢늻뇭3늻뷶룸돶쇋컳닮탞헽쒣탍뗄맀볆뷡맻,뮹쓜횱뷓ퟷ폃폚춨믵엲헍,뛸쫇뷨훺놾볛룱뗄뗷헻룸돶쇋뇤솿횮볤뗄뎤웚뻹뫢맘쾵ꆣ붫믹ힼ샻싊뇤솿쪵쿖틸룹쫕럅닙ퟷ,뛔맺쏱뺭볃뷸탐뫪맛뗷뿘,듓뛸뗄쾵쫽뇪ힼ뮯캪1,퓲CPIꆢ슥쫐뫍짏횤ퟛ횸뗄쾵쫽볤뷓뗷헻CPI퓋탐쟩뿶;(2)틽웰춨믵엲헍뗄틲쯘럖뇰캪ꆢ뫍ꆣ헢뇭쏷뫜뛠,늻뷶쿞폚뺭볃맽죈,쇷뚯탔맽쪣뗈폫믵뇒헾닟믹ힼ샻싊폫슥쫐듦퓚뢺뗄뻹뫢맘쾵,뛸폫CPI뫍짏쿠맘틲쯘,뮹냼삨웤쯻죧솸쪳볛룱짏헇,쪯폍ꆢ룖쳺횤ퟛ횸듦퓚헽뗄뻹뫢맘쾵ꆣ뛔폚잰튻뻹뫢맘쾵,헢뗈풭닄쇏볛룱짏헇뗈럇믵뇒헾닟쿠맘틲쯘,틲듋퇫늻쓑샭뷢:ퟷ캪슥쫐쏼싶뗄짌튵듻뿮믹ힼ샻싊,뛔폚탐늢늻쓜떥뒿닎뾼CPI퓋탐쟩뿶훆뚨믵뇒헾닟,뛸슥쫐뗄뷰솴뻟폐뻶뚨탔ퟷ폃ꆣ믹ힼ샻싊짏뗷,믡쫇펦훷튪닎뾼틔놾볛룱캪뇭헷뗄뫪맛뺭볃헻쳥퓋쫕뷴슥쫐뗄뷰릩룸,듓뛸톹웈슥쫐쿂뗷;랴횮퓲믡탐쟩뿶ꆣ틔짏솽뗣풭틲퓬돉쇋NCPI뫍Nr횮볤쮫럅뿭슥쫐뗄뷰릩펦,듙쪹웤짏퇯ꆣ뛸믹ힼ샻싊폫쿲Granger틲맻맘쾵뻹늻쿔훸ꆣCPI뫍짏횤ퟛ횸듦퓚헽뗄뻹뫢맘쾵헢튻뷡맻,튲쫇(죽)닺볛룱ꆢ춨믵엲헍벰믵뇒헾닟볤뎤웚뻹럻뫏컒맺맺쟩뗄ꆣ틀뻝짏컄룱삼뷜틲맻볬퇩뗄뷡맻뫢맘쾵럖컶뫍럖컶,CPI뫍믹ힼ샻싊횮볤뗄Granger틲맻맘쾵1.킭헻럖컶ꆣ퓚쏷좷쇋슥쫐ꆢ막쫐ꆢCPI틔벰쫐늻쿔훸,솽헟횮볤쫇춨맽놾볛룱쿠뮥ퟷ폃뗄ꆣ죴뎡믹ힼ샻싊횮볤뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃맘쾵횮뫳,뿉틔뷸튻늽뷰죚쫐뎡맽죈,놾볛룱짏헇맽뿬,쫆뇘췆룟CPI붨솢컳닮탞헽쒣탍(VECM)살뛔웤맘쾵뷸탐볆솿퇐헇럹,뛸퇫탐돶폚벷톹뷰죚엝쒭,컈뚨뺭볃퓋탐뗄쒿뺿ꆣ캪뇜쏢캱믘맩,놾컄쪹폃ADF[21]볬퇩살좷뚨뗄,튲믡닉좡뷴쯵틸룹헾닟,뗷룟믹ힼ샻싊;랴횮,퇫
54ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ컷놱얩쇖뿆벼듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚10뻭탐믡춨맽붵뗍믹ힼ샻싊살듙뷸춶,틔놣헏뺭볃퓶죕,막쫐믹놾짏뻹틔짏헇쫕엌,랴횮퓲틔쿂뗸쫕엌ꆣ뎤ꆣ듋췢,춨맽맛달벴뿉랢쿖,평폚컒맺뷰죚믺훆붨틔짏튲퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏릹돉쇋쪵횤럖컶훐믹ힼ샻싊폫짨늻붡좫,뷰죚헾닟뫍뫪맛뗷뿘탅쾢뒫떼춨뗀늻춨막쫐듦퓚헽뗄뻹뫢맘쾵헢튻뷡맻뗄풭틲ꆣ뎩뗈풭틲,퓚퇫탐탻늼뗷룟믹ힼ샻싊뗄뗚뛾룶붻틗뇭3ꆡ컳닮탞헽쒣탍맀볆뷡맻훍뫳뷗쫽뇤솿==뗷헻쾵쫽ꛁ뎤웚뻹뫢쾵쫽ꛂꆡꆡ뛔펦뎤웚뻹뫢쾵쫽ꛂ,뇭3뮹룸돶쇋뗷헻쾵쫽ꛁ맘쾵늻쿔훸ꆣ=[,,,]ꆣ헢듋췢,믹폚쿲솿컳닮탞헽쒣탍럖컶랢쿖,믹ힼ샻뇭쏷죧맻평폚쒳훖풭틲쪹뗃뻹뫢맘쾵욫샫튻룶떥싊폫슥쫐듦퓚뢺뗄뻹뫢맘쾵,뛸폫CPI뫍짏횤ퟛ횸캻,퓲퓚쿂튻웚횸쫽뇤뮯훐,ꚤNCPI뗄뗷헻붫뇈헽듦퓚헽뗄뻹뫢맘쾵,늢쟒룷뇤솿뻹뛔뎤웚뻹뫢뗄뇤뎣뗷헻퓶볓떥캻,ꚤNHouse뗄뗷헻붫복짙뚯ퟷ돶랴펦ꆣ떥캻,ꚤNShidx뗄뗷헻붫퓶볓떥캻,뛸ꚤNr뗄뗷헻붫복짙떥캻ꆣ틔짏뗷헻닎뾼컄쿗:붫돖탸훁뻹뫢맘쾵뗃떽믖뢴캪횹ꆣ[1]ꆡ[R].Eco2nomicReview3Quarter,FederalReserveBankofKan2쯄ꆢ뷡싛sas,2000:11-37.[2]ꆡ뗔잿.닺볛룱폫믵뇒헾닟[J].뺭볃퇐뺿,2001(7):60놾컄뛔닺볛룱ꆢ춨믵엲헍벰믵뇒헾닟볤뗄쿠-67.맘탔벰쿠뮥ퟷ폃믺훆뷸탐쇋쾵춳뚨솿럖컶,뷡싛뇭[3]ꆡ췵뮢,돂,럫닊.컒맺뷰죚닺볛룱폫춨믵엲헍뗄쏷맘솪탔볬퇩[J].횤좯쫐뎡떼놨,2008(3):31-39.:슥쫐뫍막쫐맽죈좷쪵쫇CPI돖탸ퟟ룟뗄풭틲;뛸CPI돖탸룟캻퓋탐폖랴맽살듙쪹룼뛠뗄뷰쇷[4]ꆡ[M].NewYork:Mcmillan,1911.죫막쫐뫍슥쫐,뷸튻늽볓훘쇋막쫐뫍슥쫐맽죈쿖쿳;[5]ꆡALCHIAN,뷸뛸잿뮯쇋헾뢮뗄쇷뚯탔맽쪣풤웚,듙쪹헾뢮닉좡[J].JournalofMoneyCreditandBanking,1973,5(1):틸룹뷴쯵헾닟,쳡룟믹ힼ샻싊;뛸막쫐뫍믹ힼ샻싊뛔173-191.슥쫐폖폐뫜듳뗄펰쿬,폈웤쫇ퟷ캪슥쫐쏼싶뗄짌튵[6]ꆡSHIBUYA,듻뿮믹ힼ샻싊:막쫐맽죈퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏듸뚯쇋슥쫐dex:assetpriceandinflation[J].MonetaryandEco2뗄럨헇nomicStudies,1992,10(1):95-109.,뛸돶폚룸맽죈뺭볃붵컂,컈뚨뺭볃퓋탐뗄쒿뗄,헾뢮쳡룟짌튵듻뿮믹ힼ샻싊,폖욽틖쇋랿볛뗄맽[7]ꆡ뿬짏헇ꆣandpriceindices[J].MonetaryandEconomicStdies,춬쪱1999(12):103-128.,평폚퇫탐훷튪붫닺볛룱(뛸늻쫇CPI)뗄퓋탐쟩뿶ퟷ캪믹ힼ샻싊뗷헻뗄닎뾼뇪ힼ뫍뗷헻뛔[8]ꆡGOODHART,
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