华中科技大学博士学位论文城市商品住宅市场波动及其调控对策研究姓名：李斌申请学位级别：博士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：陈荣秋20060429
햪 튪뷼쓪살ꎬ랿뗘닺쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뛈솿ꆢ럖컶틑돉캪떱뷱랿뗘닺뺭펪폫맜샭퇐뺿뗄잰퇘뿎쳢ꆣ웤훐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄퇐뺿볈쫇힡햬폫랿뗘닺쿻럑헟ꆢ춶헟벰웤쫐뎡맜샭릤ퟷ헟뗄쿖쪵웈쟐탨튪ꎬ튲쫇컒맺힡햬쫐뎡돖탸ꆢ붡뾵랢햹뗄튪쟳ꎬ쯼뛔틽떼힡햬뗄뫏샭춶뫍힡햬쿠맘닺튵뗄헽뎣랢햹ꆢ횸떼힡햬쫐뎡뗷뿘맜샭쪵볹ꎬ뻟폐훘듳뗄샭싛뫍쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ놾컄퓚뛔맺쓚췢랿뗘닺늨뚯샭싛뫍힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯퇐뺿쿖ힴ뷸탐ퟛ쫶뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ쾵춳뗘싛쫶쇋폐맘힡햬폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡늨뚯샭싛폫랽램뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꆣ쳡돶늢싛쫶쇋돇쫐뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿ꆢ랿뗘닺뺭볃뇤솿폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯횮볤뗄뚨탔뫍뚨솿맘쾵ꆣ놾컄룹뻝돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡폫돇쫐뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿ꆢ랿뗘닺뺭볃뇤솿맘쾵뗄샭싛럖컶ꎬ솢ퟣ폚컒맺뫪맛벰퇹뗣돇쫐뗄쫽뻝믹뒡ꎬ닉폃쫽뻝럖컶랽램ꎬ짨훃돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯횸뇪ꎬ틀뻝Granger볬퇩샭싛뫍랽램ꎬ볆솿럖컶쇋뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿ꆢ랿뗘닺뺭볃뇤솿폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯횮볤뗄뮥뚯맘쾵ꎬ늢틔컒맺힡햬쫐뎡캪뛔쿳뷸탐쇋쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ쳡돶늢릹붨쇋믹폚횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶쒣탍ꎬ쳖싛쇋힡햬쫐뎡쪱탲뚯첬쒣탍뫍뫡뷘쏦뚯첬쒣탍ꆣ싛컄퓚럖컶쿖탐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쒣탍뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ룹뻝돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뚯솦톧샭싛럖컶힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쾵춳ꎬ퓚쳡돶쇋횱뷓놾뮯싊볆쯣뫍볬퇩뗄쫽톧쒣탍틔뫳ꎬ틀뻝횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄쳘탔ꎬ듓짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ꆢ힡햬ퟢ쇞쫐뎡뮥뚯뗄뷇뛈럖컶돶짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄럹뛈ꆢ늨캻틔벰폫뿍맛볛횵뗄욫샫뗄돌뛈ꎬ늢뛔낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뷸탐쇋쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ뷨훺쯵풼쒣탍뗄믹놾쮼쿫ꎬ붫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄췢짺뫍쓚짺쏴룐탔틲쯘쓉죫떽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄뚯첬럖컶훐ꎬ듓ퟝ쿲뷇뛈틽죫럇쪱훍뗷헻뫍쪱훍뗷헻뗄솽샠쒣쪽ꎬ릹훾쇋늻춬탎쪽뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쪱탲뚯첬쒣탍ꎬ닉폃뛔쫽쒣탍맀쯣낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄쪱탲뚯첬늨뚯ힴ뿶ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ듓뫡쿲뷇뛈릹붨쇋럻뫏컒맺돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐ힴ뿶뗄힡햬쫐뎡뫡뷘쏦뚯첬쒣탍ꎬ틔컒맺15룶뢱쪡벶돇쫐캪퇹놾뷸탐쇋쪵횤럖컶ꆣI
쳡돶쇋움볛돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ첬뗄돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄룅쓮벰웤쯣램쒣탍ꆣ컄훐퓚뛔DI폫CI횸쫽쿲솿뷸탐쫽뻝뒦샭늢붨솢헻뫏믹뒡틔뫳ꎬ틀뻝DI횵폫CI횵뗄뺫뛈럖컶ꎬ?웺훷맛에뛏뗄뒦샭랽램ꎬ내헕룷ퟔ훐컳닮뗄룟뗍뫍좨훘볆쯣샭싛폫쮼쿫ꎬ좷뚨룷헻뫏믹뒡쫽뻝쯹퓘짌욷힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢솿뗄좨훘ꎬퟮ뫳뛔웤뷸탐볓좨욽뻹ꎬ릹훾쇋힡햬짌욷쫐뎡늨뚯움볛뗄ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄좷뚨샭싛뫍쪵볊닙ퟷ쾵춳ꆣ틀뻝틔짏힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뛈솿뗄샭싛폫쒣탍ꎬ횸떼짨볆늢퇐훆쇋퇹뗣돇쫐랿뗘닺쫐뎡풤뺯풤놨쾵춳ꎬ룃쪵횤퇐뺿쿮쒿폚2004쓪춨맽쇋돉맻본뚨ꎬ늢믱뗃늿쫐벶뿆벼뷸늽뛾뗈붱ꆣ쒿잰틑춶죫쪵볊퓋탐뷗뛎ꆣ맘볼듊ꎺ돇쫐짌욷힡햬 쫐뎡늨뚯 움볛폫뿌뮭 횸쫽 틲맻맘쾵뚯첬 쒣탍II
AbstractIn the field of real estate, measurement and analysis of the fluctuation of the realestate market has become very much a pioneering research issue. As an importantcomponent of the property market, the fluctuation of urban residential real estate marketcan have significant impact on the society, the economy, and many families. Studying itsfluctuation is either the requirement of real estate management in practice, or therequirement of maintaining a stable and healthy development of the residential real estateand its relevance industry. It is necessary to draw up the correlative policies to modulateon urban residential market. It plays an important role in the theory and in on a review of its current condition and development home and abroad, thethesis systematically expounds some achievements in the theory and the methodologyabout the fluctuation of urban residential real estate this thesis the relationship between the variable of the fluctuation of urbanresidential real estate market and macroeconomic variable and real estate economicvariable is proposed and discussed successfully. Based on the collected economic data inChina, and theory about the relationship between the variable of the fluctuation of urbanresidential real estate market and general economic conditions, indexes associated withthe fluctuation of urban residential real estate market have been designed by adapting tothe data analysis method. The relationship between the variable of the fluctuation andeconomic variable has been discussed quantitatively by Granger causality test. A casehas been applied in China and some proposes have been thesis also proposes a method of the analysis on the fluctuation of urbanresidential real estate market, based on the discussion about the overall rate. On thefoundation of the residential real estate market dynamics theory, the arithmetic and thetesting models about analyzing the fluctuation of urban residential real estate marketIII
have been dissertated. By means of the model, the scope and the potential of thefluctuation can be making sure. The difference between the real cycle and the apparentcycle of residential real estate market can be kinds of models by estimating pool equations and panel estimation have beenconstructed. Based on the idea of Reduced Form Model, by adopting lags-adjustment ornot, time-series dynamics models of the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market,in which the endogenetic and the exogenous sensitive variable include, have beenestimated. In logarithmic form the models are applied in a case. On the other hand, thefluctuation dynamics equations of residential real estate market by means of panel datahave been estimated. The models have been applied in 15 cities of concept and the arithmetic of Urban Residential Real Estate market IntegrationBoom Index (BI) have been dissertated in this thesis. Based on the prosperity indexmethod and the suitable improvement to the calculation method of the diffusion index,the concept of “comparison of the precision ”ꎬincluding the diffusion index (DI) and thecomposite index (CI)ꎬhas been introduced. Residential Real Estate market IntegrationBoom Index can be dissertated by means of comparing the precision of the two indexes(DI andCI) in order to eliminate the contradiction between the two to the theory and the methodology of fluctuation measurement of urbanresidential real estate market in this thesis, there is a guidance to develop the earlywarning system of urban real estate market fluctuation successfully. This system haspassed the appraisal in words: Urban Residential Real Estate Fluctuation of marketIndex Measurement and AppraisalCausality Relation Dynamic ModelIV
1 떼 퇔 퇐뺿놳뺰벰틢틥힡햬ퟷ캪짺닺쇏ꆢ짺믮튪쯘ꆢ쿭쫜쇏뫍랢햹쇏ꎬ웤뺭볃뫍짧믡훘튪탔죕틦쫜떽훘쫓ꆣퟔ룄룯뾪럅틔살ꎬ컒맺힡햬닺튵뺭샺쇋쫐뎡엠폽ꆢ랱죙ꆢ맦랶뗈벸룶랢햹뷗뛎ꎬ믽샛쇋뷏럡뢻뗄쪵볹뺭퇩뫍쿠맘횪쪶ꎬ돶첨쇋튻쾵쇐램싉ꆢ램맦뫍늿쏅맦헂ꆣ폈웤쫇ꆶ맺컱풺맘폚뷸튻늽짮뮯돇헲힡랿훆뛈룄룯볓뿬힡랿붨짨뗄춨횪ꆷꎨ맺랢[1998]23뫅ꎩ랢늼틔살ꎬ돇헲힡랿훆뛈룄룯짮죫췆뷸ꎬ힡랿붨짨늽랥볓뿬ꎬ힡랿쿻럑폐킧웴뚯ꎬ뻓쏱힡랿쳵볾뗃떽쇋뷏듳룄짆ꆣ폫듋춬쪱ꎬ틔힡햬캪훷뗄랿뗘닺쫐뎡튲퓚늻뛏랢햹ꎬ쯼뛔삭뚯뺭볃퓶뎤뫍쳡룟죋쏱짺믮쮮욽랢믓쇋훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣ뷸죫뛾쪮튻쫀볍틔살ꎬ컒맺힡햬탨쟳컈늽퓶뎤ꆢ힡햬훊솿듳럹뛈쳡룟ꆢ쫐뎡훐뷩럾컱훰늽맦랶ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹튲늢럇욽뺲컞늨ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뮹늻욽뫢ꎬ튻킩뗘쟸힡랿릩쟳뗄뷡릹탔쎬뛜뷏캪춻돶ꎬ힡햬볛룱뫍춶퓶뎤맽뿬ꎻ랿뗘닺쫐뎡럾컱쳥쾵짐늻붡좫ꎬ힡랿쿻럑뮹탨췘햹ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯횱뷓펰쿬웤쒸닺튵ꡄꡄ랿뗘닺튵뗄늨뚯ꆣ2003쓪횮뫳뗄벸쓪볤ꎬ컒맺튻킩돇쫐룶죋힡랿듻뿮뛮늻뛏짏짽ꎬ힡랿춶놣돖룟쯙퓶뎤ꎬ폈웤쫇힡햬볛룱뗄맽뿬퓶뎤틽웰쇋헾뢮뫍튵쓚죋쪿뗄룟뛈맘힢ꎬ웈쟐탨튪헫뛔컒맺힡햬쫐뎡돶쿖뗄춶뫍볛룱늨뚯쟩뿶쳡릩쿠맘뗄샭싛횸떼뫍쪵볹첽쯷ꆣ 놾뿎쳢뗄퇐뺿쫇컒맺힡햬쫐뎡돖탸ꆢ붡뾵랢햹뗄튪쟳2004쓪11퓂APEC쇬떼죋믡틩짏랢뇭뗄ꆶ쪥뗘퇇룧탻퇔ꆷ훘짪ꎺ튪쪵쿖뿉돖탸뫍뻹뫢퓶뎤ꆣ힡햬ퟷ캪짧믡짺닺뫍짺믮뗄뇘탨욷ꎬ웤쫐뎡뗄랢햹횱뷓펰쿬랿뗘닺튵뗄컈뚨뫍뿉돖탸랢햹ꆣ횻폐놣돖힡햬쫐뎡뎣첬뗄랢햹ꎬ닅쓜놣돖쿠맘탐튵뗄헽뎣랢햹ꆣ1980쓪틔살ꎬ훐맺돇헲힡랿훆뛈룄룯늻뛏짮죫ꆣ쳘뇰쫇1998쓪춣횹힡랿쪵컯럖엤ꆢ훰늽쪵탐힡랿럖엤믵뇒뮯틔살ꎬ힡랿쫐뎡뮯룄룯좡뗃훘듳춻웆ꆣ쒿잰훐맺돇헲힡랿쮽폐싊듯떽80ꎥ틔짏ꎬ힡랿닺좨룱뻖랢짺쇋룹놾뇤뮯ꆣ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽훐ꎬ룶죋릺랿뗄뇈샽듯떽95ꎥ틔짏ꎬ돉캪짌욷힡햬뗄릺싲훷쳥ꆣ짌욷힡햬햼돇헲힡햬뾢릤쏦믽뫍춶뗄뇈샽듳럹뛈쳡룟ꎬ쫐뎡믺훆뗄ퟷ폃뗃떽뷏듳돌뛈뗄랢믓ꆣퟜ쳥뾴ꎬ폫짧믡훷틥쫐뎡뺭볃쿠쫊펦뗄힡랿탂쳥훆틑믹놾탎돉ꎬ틔힡햬캪훷뗄랿1
뗘닺튵틑뺭돉캪맺쏱뺭볃뗄훘튪뗄횧훹닺튵ꆣ폫듋춬쪱ꎬ쮽폐힡햬햼돇헲뻓쏱볒춥닺럝뛮뗄뇈샽틑듯떽47ꎥꆣ틲듋ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡쓜늻쓜돖탸컈뚨붡뾵뗘랢햹ꎬ늻뷶맘쾵랿뗘닺튵ퟔ짭뗄돖탸랢햹ꎬ뛸쟒뮹맘쾵떽헻룶맺쏱뺭볃퓋탐훊솿ꎬ맘쾵떽맺쏱뺭볃뗄돖탸붡뾵랢햹ꎬ튲맘쾵떽맣듳뻓쏱힡랿닺뗄놣횵짽횵ꆣ캪듋ꎬ컒맺럇뎣훘쫓힡햬쫐뎡뗄첬쫆ꎬ뷼쓪살ꎬ헫뛔힡햬폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡훐돶쿖뗄컊쳢ꎬ2003쓪8퓂맺컱풺쿂랢쇋ꆶ맺컱풺맘폚듙뷸랿뗘닺쫐뎡돖탸붡뾵랢햹뗄춨횪ꆷꎨ틔쿂볲돆맺컱풺18뫅컄ꎩꎬ쏷좷쳡돶튪볓잿랿뗘닺쫐뎡춳볆릤ퟷꎬ췪짆좫맺랿뗘닺쫐뎡탅쾢쾵춳ꆣ2005쓪5퓂맺컱풺냬릫쳼랢쇋붨짨늿ꆢ랢햹룄룯캯풱믡ꆢ닆헾늿ꆢ맺췁풴늿ꆢ죋쏱틸탐ꆢ쮰컱ퟜ뻖ꆢ틸볠믡냤랢뗄ꆶ맘폚ퟶ뫃컈뚨힡랿볛룱릤ퟷ뗄틢볻ꆷꎨ맺냬랢[2005]26뫅ꎩꎬ뛔컈뚨힡랿쫐뎡볛룱쳡돶쇋냋쿮듫쪩ꆣ캪쇋놣횤뿆톧뻶닟ꎬ듙뷸힡햬쫐뎡붡뾵폐탲뗄랢햹ꎬ럀횹럇헽뎣늨뚯뗄랢짺ꎬ펦룺ퟙ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ뿶ꎬ볓잿뛔힡햬쫐뎡럇헽뎣늨뚯닺짺뗄풭틲ꆢ믺샭ꆢ뇭헷뗄퇐뺿ꎬ붨솢웰튻쳗힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶뫍뗷뿘뗄샭싛뫍랽램쳥쾵ꎬ벰쪱랢쿖닺짺럇헽뎣늨뚯뗄쏧춷늢닉좡뿬쯙ꆢ폐킧뗄쫊쪱뗷뿘뛔닟ꎬ럀랶평듋틽랢뗄짧믡뚯떴쿖쿳랢짺ꎬ뇜쏢퓬돉헻룶탐튵쓋훁듳랶캧뗄뺭볃뇀삣ꆢ풴샋럑뫍쫐뎡쪧쇩뗄ힴ[1]뿶ꎬ놣헏맺쏱뺭볃솼탔랢햹뫍뺭볃ꆢ헾훎쳥쾵뗄뫍킳퓋ꆣ 쓜틽떼힡햬뗄뫏샭춶뫍힡햬쿠맘닺튵뗄헽뎣랢햹뻝ꆶ훐맺랿뗘닺탐튵럖컶놨룦ꎨ2005쓪4벾뛈ꎩꆷꎬ2005쓪4벾뛈ꎬ컒맺랿뗘닺뾪랢춶틚풪ꎬ춬뇈퓶뎤%ꎬ웤훐ꎬ힡햬랿뗘닺뾪랢춶햼랿뗘닺뾪랢춶뗄%ꆣ쯤좻룷쓪럝뫍퓂럝힡햬춶뛮햼랿뗘닺춶뛮뗄뇈훘폐튻킩뇤뮯ꎬ떫ퟜ뗄튻룶맦싉쫇랿뗘닺춶훐ꎬ힡햬춶햼뷏듳뗄뇈훘ꎨ볻뇭1ꎭ1ꎩꎬ쯼뗄늨뚯뛔랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄헽뎣퓋탐뻟폐뻙ퟣ쟡훘뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뇭1ꎭ1 2005쓪훐맺힡햬폫랿뗘닺춶뇈뷏뇭랿뗘닺튵쪵힡햬춶힡햬춶뛮햼랿힡햬쪩릤힡햬뾢릤쪱 볤볊췪돉춶췪돉뛮뗘닺춶뗄뇈샽쏦믽ꎨ췲쏦믽ꎨ췲ꎨ틚풪ꎩꎨ틚풪ꎩꎨꎥꎩ욽랽쏗ꎩ욽랽쏗ꎩ2005쓪3퓂쓪4퓂쇏살풴ꎺ맺볒춳볆뻖쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ힡햬튵폖쫇맺쏱뺭볃뗄쿈떼탔닺튵ꎬ쫇쿖듺뺭볃듳쾵춳훐뗄튻룶훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ웤랢햹횱뷓펰쿬떽쫐헾ꆢ뮷놣ꆢ릫릲럾컱ꆢ짌튵ꆢ붨훾ꆢ붨닄ꆢ2
ힰ쫎ꆢ볒뗧ꆢ컯튵럾컱뗈탐튵뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈뫍훊솿ꆣ 쓜닺짺뻞듳뗄뺭볃뫍짧믡킧틦힡햬튵뗄랢햹틀삵폚뺭볃랢햹쯹뒴퓬뗄쫐뎡탨쟳ꎬ좡뻶폚뺭볃퓶뎤쯹뻶뚨뗄뻓쏱힡랿횧뢶쓜솦ꆣ2001쓪좫맺돇헲룶죋힡랿횧돶ퟜ뛮듯7500틚풪ꎬ2004쓪힡햬췪돉춶뛮8837틚풪ꎬ틔듋췆쯣ꎬ죧맻힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗷뿘샭싛뗃떽뿆톧뗄붨솢ꎬ늢퓚쪵볹훐랢믓ퟷ폃ꎬ붵뗍냙럖횮튻뗄늻샻펰쿬ꎬ붫쫇88틚풪맦쒣ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뷸탐놾싛컄뗄퇐뺿뻟폐훘튪뗄뺭볃킧틦ꆣ쳘뇰쫇퓚뺭볃룟쯙퓶뎤ꆢ컒맺힡햬쫐뎡뿬쯙랢햹쪱웚ꎬ놾싛컄뗄퇐뺿폐샻폚랿뗘닺튵폫짧믡뺭볃뗄킭뗷랢햹ꎬ럻뫏뿆톧랢햹맛뗄튪쟳ꎬ뻟폐뻞듳뗄짧믡킧틦ꆣ 쫇힡햬폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡맜샭릤ퟷ뗄튪쟳2003쓪돵헙뾪뗄좫맺랿뗘닺릤ퟷ믡짏ꎬ맺볒쳡돶쇋랿뗘닺쫐뎡퇐뺿뗄튪쟳ꆣ2003쓪5퓂붨짨늿냬릫쳼펡랢쇋ꆶ맘폚퓚짏몣뗈13룶돇쫐쫔퓋탐돇쫐랿뗘닺쫐뎡풤뺯풤놨탅쾢쾵춳뗄춨횪ꆷꎨ붨냬힡랿몯[2003]216뫅ꎩꎬ좷뚨쇋짏몣ꆢ몼훝ꆢ쿃쏅뗈14룶돇쫐ꎨ뫳퓶늹돉뚼쫐ꎩퟷ캪쫗엺쫔뗣돇쫐ꆣ2003쓪9퓂ꎬ컒쏇붫쫔뗣돇쫐삩듳떽35룶듳훐돇쫐ꎨ뫳살폖뷸튻늽삩듳떽40룶돇쫐ꎩꆣ캪맡뎹맺컱풺18뫅컄볾뺫짱ꎬ볓잿늿쏅횮볤쫽뻝풴헻뫏ꎬ좫쏦늿쫰랿뗘닺쫐뎡탅쾢쾵춳붨짨릤ퟷꎬ2004쓪돵ꎬ붨짨늿뗈웟늿쏅솪뫏펡랢쇋ꆶ맘폚볓잿킭ퟷ릲춬ퟶ뫃랿뗘닺쫐뎡탅쾢쾵춳뫍풤뺯풤놨쳥쾵폐맘릤ퟷ뗄춨횪ꆷꎨ붨힡랿[2004]7뫅ꎩꎬ쏷좷쇋룷폐맘늿쏅횮볤뗄릤ퟷ럖릤ꆣ쒿잰ꎬ뻸듳뛠쫽쫔뗣돇쫐헽퓚내쫔뗣랽낸뗄늿쫰볓잿헾뢮쿠맘늿쏅볤뗄킭뗷ꎬ닉벯쿠맘탅쾢ꆣ떫퓚랿뗘닺쫐뎡풤놨풤뺯쾵춳뗄붨솢맽돌훐ꎬ컞싛듓샭싛맛쓮ꎬ뮹쫇듓쪵볊쾵춳뗄닙ퟷ훐ꎬ뚼듦퓚ퟅ탭뛠컳쟸ꆣ죧맻늻ퟟ돶헢킩컳쟸ꎬ룷뗘뗄랿뗘닺쫐뎡풤놨풤뺯쾵춳붫늻뿉쓜뿆톧ꆢ뿍맛움볛튻룶뗘쟸랿뗘닺튵쫇럱뒦폚솼탔랢햹ힴ첬ꎬ폐뿉쓜컳떼랿뗘닺춶ꎬ쪧좥돇쫐뺭볃뗄랢햹믺폶ꎬ펰쿬뗘랽뺭볃뗄랢햹쯙뛈뫍킧틦ꆣ틲듋ꎬ랿뗘닺쫐뎡풤놨풤뺯쾵춳붨솢맽돌훐뗄컳쟸뇘탫틽웰랿뗘닺샭싛뫍쪵볊릤ퟷ헟뗄룟뛈훘쫓ꆣ퓚훚뛠컳쟸훐ꎬ뫶쫓랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄럖샠쳘탔쫇튻룶웕뇩쿖쿳ꎬ뛸힡햬쫐뎡쯤좻쫇랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ떫힡햬쫐뎡뗄쫜훚맣ꆢ볛횵솿듳ꎬ죧폫웤쯼쫐뎡뫏늢럖컶붫쓑틔쳥쿖돶룷ퟔ뗄헦쪵퓋탐맦싉ꎬ럖컶뗄뷡싛튲쓑틔틽떼뻓쏱뗄힡랿쿻럑뫍힡햬뗄뫏샭춶ꆣ3
쫇힡햬쫐뎡뗷뿘맜샭쪵볹뗄탨튪2004쓪9퓂ꎬ훐퇫쳡돶붨짨ꆰ뫍킳짧믡ꆱ뗄샭쓮ꎬ튪쟳룷벶헾뢮훆뚨헾닟럀횹짧믡뚯떴늻낲뗄쿖쿳랢짺ꆣ힡햬폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄늻컈뚨랢햹쫇맺볒뺭볃뚯떴늻쓾뗄룹풴횮튻ꆣ짏쫀볍90쓪듺돵ꎬ몣쓏ꆢ놱몣뗈뗘힡햬폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡럇샭탔엲헍ꎬ퇏훘펰쿬쇋떱뗘뗄뺭볃랢햹뫍뷰죚훈탲ꎻ90쓪듺죕놾랿뗘닺ꆰ엝쒭ꆱ뗄웆쏰ꎬ뛔죕놾뺭볃뗄펰쿬훁뷱죔캴쿻돽ꎻ뚫쓏퇇뷰죚캣믺튲폫랿뗘닺ꆰ엝쒭ꆱ횱뷓쿠맘ꆣ떱잰ꎬ컒맺힡햬쫐뎡ퟜ쳥짏뒦폚랢햹첬쫆ꎬ떫튲듦퓚튻킩컊쳢횵뗃맘힢ꆣ폐뗄뗘랽힡랿릩펦뷡릹탔쎬뛜뷏캪춻돶ꎬ웕춨짌욷힡랿뫍뺭볃쪹폃힡랿릩펦늻ퟣꎬ룟떵짌욷힡햬릩펦맽쪣ꎻ폐뗄랿뗘닺뾪랢웳튵럇램좦햼췁뗘ꆣ헫뛔헢킩컊쳢ꎬ볒ꆢ톧헟튲냼삨튻킩힡랿늿쏅뾴램늻튻ꎬ튲폫뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ뿶뗄죏쪶좱랦샭싛횸떼폐맘ꎬ뺿웤풭틲ꎬ볈폐쏦뛔뿬쯙랢햹뗄쫐뎡ꎬ뗷뿘뺭퇩늻ퟣꆢ뗷뿘쓜솦폐듽쳡룟ꎬ뗷뿘쪵볹뺭퇩폐듽믽샛뗄틲쯘ꎬ룼훷튪쫇좱랦튻쳗쫊뫏컒맺맺쟩뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶뫍뗷뿘샭싛뗄횧돖ꆣퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯믺샭벰웤뗷뿘뛔닟퇐뺿폐샻폚뿆톧냑컕힡햬쫐뎡랢햹첬쫆ꎬ쫊쪱쫊뛈뗘쪵쪩뫪맛뗷뿘ꎬ럀횹쫐뎡듳웰듳실ꎻ폐샻폚퓶잿힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢뗄춸쏷뛈ꎬ틽떼샭탔춶폫쿻럑ꎬ돤럖랢믓헾닟쫊떱뗷뿘쿂뗄힡햬쫐뎡ퟔ컒뗷뷚ퟷ폃ꆣ 쿠맘퇐뺿쇬폲벰웤랢햹쿖ힴ 뺭볃늨뚯샭싛퇐뺿ퟛ쫶듓19쫀볍돵웚쯣웰ꎬ컷랽뺭볃톧볒뛔늨뚯뗄럖컶폫퇐뺿ꎬ웹뷱틑폐듳풼200폠쓪뗄샺쪷ꆣ퓚듓늻춬뷇뛈뛔뺭볃퓶뎤맽돌훐훜웚탔돶쿖뗄늨뚯쿖쿳뷸탐퇐뺿맽돌훐ꎬ탎돉쇋늻춬쇷엉ꆢ닠훘늻춬쓚죝뗄뺭볃늨뚯샭싛ꆣ퓚룷훖늨뚯샭싛훐ꎬ틀뻝뛔뺭볃늨뚯닺짺벰웤맦싉탔뗄죏쪶뫍럖컶ꎬ듳훂뿉틔럖캪솽훖늻춬뗄샭싛쇷엉ꆣ닠훘듓췢짺틲쯘살뷢쫍뺭볃늨뚯뗄샭싛죏캪ꎬ죧맻쎻폐쿱벾뷚룼쳦쓇퇹뗄췢늿늨뚯탔돥믷뗄펰쿬ꎬ뺭볃쳥쾵놾짭뻍늻믡돶쿖죎뫎폐맦싉뗄늨뚯쟷쫆ꆣ퓚틽죫룼볓뢴퓓뗄췆떼폫횤쏷뫳ꎬ벴쪹췢늿돥믷쯦믺돶쿖ꎬ튲폐뿉쓜떼훂뺭볃쳥쾵돶쿖맦싉탔뗄늨뚯ꆣ닠훘듓쓚짺틲쯘살럖컶뺭볃늨뚯뗄샭싛죏캪ꎬ뺭볃쳥쾵돶쿖늢돖탸듦퓚늨뚯탔뗄퓋뚯ꎬ췪좫믲훷튪쫇평쓚짺틲쯘뛔뺭볃4
쳥쾵랢짺ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꆣ쪵볊짏ꎬ쳡돶튻룶틔솬탸랢짺삩헅폫쫕쯵캪쳘헷뗄뚯첬쾵춳쿠떱죝틗ꎬ떫튪쮵쏷헢튻쾵춳폀컞횹뺳뗄돖탸늨뚯늢늻좡뻶폚췢뷧돥믷ꎬ뛸횻평뷡릹닎쫽뻶뚨좴듦퓚쿠떱쓑뛈ꆣ듋췢ꎬ뷧폚췢짺돥믷샭싛폫쓚짺틲쯘샭싛횮볤뗄늨뚯샭싛횸돶ꎬ뺭볃늨뚯퓚헽뎣쟩뿶쿂믡쮥복ꎬ횻튪랴뎣뗄췢늿돥믷늻퓙뛔뺭볃쾵춳쳡릩쪹늨뚯돖탸뷸탐쿂좥쯹탨뗄쓜솿ꎬ쓇쎴뺭볃늨뚯뻍늻믡볌탸훘탂돶쿖ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵뺭볃늨뚯ퟮ훕믡쿻쪧ꆣ웹뷱캪횹ꎬ냩쯦뺭볃톧볒뛔뺭볃늨뚯퇐뺿뗄늻뛏짮죫ꎬ늨뚯샭싛랢햹듳쳥짏뺭샺쇋죽듳뷗뛎ꎺ뗚튻뷗뛎ꎺ19쫀볍돵웚떽20쫀볍돵웚ꆣ헢튻쪱웚컷랽훷튪맺볒뒦폚릤튵뮯돵웚뫍훐웚ꎬ뺭볃늨뚯듓늻맦퓲뗄ꆢ얼좻뗄뇤뚯쿲뷏캪폐맦퓲ꆢ늻뛏훘뢴뗄헽뎣늨뚯탎쪽맽뛈ꎬ춬쪱늨뚯잿뛈쯦릤튵뮯뷸돌볓뿬뛸볓뻧ꆣ헢튻쪱웚쫴폚뺭볃늨뚯퇐뺿뗄퓧웚뷗뛎ꎬ퓚헢튻쪱웚ꎬ쯤좻룷쇷엉벸뫵뛔짦벰뺭볃늨뚯뗄룷훖뿉쓜틲쯘뚼뷸탐쇋돵늽럖컶ꎬ떫햼훷떼뗘캻뗄좴쫇맅뗤뺭볃톧뗄릩쟳뻹뫢싛ꎬ죏캪쫐뎡놾짭뿉틔쿻돽웤늻컈뚨탔ꎬ뷸뛸듯떽릩쟳뻹뫢ꆣ떽19쫀볍쒩뫍20쫀볍돵ꎬ돶쿖뛔룷훖뺭볃늨뚯맛뗣뷸탐ퟛ뫏맩쓉뗄늨뚯샭싛ꆣ뗚뛾뷗뛎ꎺ20쫀볍훐웚ꆣ1929ꆪ1933쓪놬랢뗄뺭볃듳캣믺ꎬ떼훂뾭뛷쮹훷틥톸쯙웰ꆣ쯦ퟅ뾭뛷쮹뛔맅뗤뻹뫢샭싛뗄ꆰ룯쏼ꆱꎬ뺭볃늨뚯퇐뺿훐튲뾪쪼탎돉뾭뛷쮹훷틥햼훷떼뗘캻뗄뻖쏦ꎬ떽60쓪듺쒩뷸죫좫쪢쪱웚ꆣ뾭뛷쮹훷틥뗄늨뚯샭싛죏캪ꎬ뺭볃늨뚯뗄룹풴퓚폚릤튵뮯뗄쮽폐뺭볃뫍쫐뎡뗄퇏훘좱쿝ꎬ틲뛸훷헅춨맽헾뢮룉풤살쳌욽뺭볃늨뚯ꆣ춬쪱뾭뛷쮹훷틥늨뚯샭싛뗄룷룶쇷엉ꎬ캧죆릤튵뮯뫳웚뗄뺭볃컈뚨퓶뎤ꎬ훘뗣퇐뺿쇋뚯첬퓶뎤늨뚯뗄샭싛뫍쒣탍ꆣ뒫춳뾭뛷쮹훷틥늨뚯샭싛듳뛠횱뷓닉좡ퟜ솿럖컶랽램ꎬ닉폃쫊펦탔풤웚믺훆ꎬ훷튪닉폃뇈뷏뺲첬럖컶ꆣ헢킩엉뇰볙짨럇ퟔ풸쪧튵뗄듦퓚ꎬ쪵볊짏쫴폚튻훖럇뻹뫢뺭볃톧ꆣ웤훷튪폅뗣쫇ꎺ쟳뷢랽뇣ꆢ뫜뛠랽쏦뫍캢맛믹뒡쿠튻훂ꆢ힡컊쳢뗄훷튪랽쏦ꆣ떫폫듋춬쪱튲듦퓚쏷쿔뗄늻ퟣꎬ죧컞램뷸탐뢣샻럖컶ꆢ죝틗뫶쫓튻킩훘튪뗄컊쳢ꎬ떱쳥훆믲헾닟룄뇤쪱ퟜ솿맘쾵뿉쓜믡랢짺쿠펦뗄뇤뮯ꆣ쯦ퟅ뾭뛷쮹훷틥맘폚헾뢮뗷뿘ퟜ탨쟳살컈뚨뺭볃ꆢ욽틖늨뚯뗄늨뚯샭싛뫍헾닟훷헅ꎬ듳솿퓋폃폚컷랽훷튪맺볒뗄뫪맛뗷뿘ꎬ췆뚯쇋헢킩맺볒퓚뗚뛾듎쫀뷧듳햽뫳톸쯙뛸컈뚨뗘랢햹ꆣ퓚헢튻랱죙쪱웚ꎬ평폚죋쏇죏캪뺭볃늨뚯늻퓙돉캪퇏훘컊쳢ꎬ틲뛸떼훂폐맘뺭볃늨뚯뗄퇐뺿튻뛈늻퓙돉캪짧믡맘힢뗄훘뗣ꆣ뗚죽뷗뛎ꎺ20쫀볍뫳웚ꆣ쯦ퟅ컷랽훷튪맺볒뷸죫뫳릤튵뮯짧믡ꎬ웤뺭볃늨뚯튲돶쿖쇋탂뗄쳘뗣ꎬ훷튪뇭쿖캪뺭볃쳥쾵뗄쓚짺늨뚯쟷쿲쯵킡ꎬ뺭볃늨뚯룼뛠뗘ꆢ룼쏷쿔뗘살풴폚췢퓚돥믷ꆣ헢튻쪱웚늻떫돶쿖쇋70쓪듺뗄뺭볃쮥췋ꎬ뛸쟒탭뛠맺5
볒퓚70튻80쓪듺뮹훘탂쿝죫맅뗤탍늨뚯ꎬ돶쿖퇏훘뗄ꆰ훍헍ꆱꆣ뷸죫90쓪듺쳘뇰쫇싵뷸ꆰ탂뺭볃ꆱ쪱웚틔뫳ꎬ돶쿖틔뺭볃늨뚯캢늨뮯캪훷튪쳘헷뗄돖탸퓶뎤ꆣ폫듋쿠쫊펦ꎬ퓚뺭볃늨뚯샭싛퇐뺿랽쏦돶쿖쇋탂뗄쳘뗣ꎬ뾭뛷쮹훷틥뛀햼슢뛏뗘캻뗄뻖쏦놻듲웆ꎬ룷훖탂탋쇷엉쿠볌닺짺ꎬ틔탂맅뗤훷틥캪뫅헙뗄탂ퟔ평훷틥늨뚯샭싛쿲뾭뛷쮹훷틥랢웰퇏뻾쳴햽ꆣퟔ뾭뛷쮹틔뫳ꎬ뺭볃늨뚯샭싛믹놾짏퇘ퟅ솽룶랽쿲랢햹ꆣ튻늿럖뺭볃톧볒퓚뾭뛷쮹샭싛뗄믹뒡횮짏ꎬ솦춼폃룼캪뚯첬뗄샭싛살뷢쫍뺭볃뗄늻컈뚨탔ꎬ평듋탎돉ꆰ뫳뾭뛷쮹훷틥ꆱꎬ웤듺뇭죋컯폐죸뛻즭ꆢ뾨뛻뛠ꆢ맾싞뗂ꆢ뛠십ꆢ쾣뿋쮹뗈죋ꎬ냩쯦탂맅뗤훷틥돶쿖ꎬ뮹탎돉틔탂뾭뛷쮹훷틥캪믹뒡뗄늨뚯샭싛ꆣ폫뒫춳뾭뛷쮹훷틥튻퇹ꎬ탂뾭뛷쮹훷틥죏캪샍뚯쫐뎡짏듦퓚ퟅ뺭뎣탔뗄뎬뛮릩룸ꎬ뺭볃훐듦퓚ퟅ쿔훸뗄늨뚯탔퓋뚯ꎬ뺭볃헾닟퓚뻸듳뛠쫽쓪럝샯쫇훘튪뗄ꆣ퓚듋믹뒡짏ꎬ탂뾭뛷쮹훷틥춬쪱닉쓉쇋샭탔풤웚뗄볙짨ꎬ쫔춼캪뾭뛷쮹훷틥뫪맛뺭볃톧쮵헒떽뫏쫊뗄캢맛믹뒡ꆣ탂뾭뛷쮹훷틥뛔뺭볃늨뚯뗄뷢쫍냼삨뷼쯆샭탔ꆢ쪵볊룕탔ꆢ볛룱뫍놾뗄붻듭뗷헻ꆢ늻췪좫뺺헹ꆢ쫐뎡쪧쇩ꆢ탅듻엤룸뗈맛뗣ꆣ쇭튻늿럖뺭볃톧볒퓚ꆰ탂맅뗤훷틥샭싛ꆱ뗄믹뒡짏붨솢웰탂뗄뺭볃늨뚯샭싛ꆣ냼삨틔럑샯뗂싼캪듺뇭뗄믵뇒훷틥ꆢ샭탔풤웚톧엉ꆢRBCꆢ헾훎뺭볃늨뚯뗈ꆣ퓚퇐뺿쓚죝짏ꎬ탂맅뗤훷틥늨뚯샭싛죏캪ꎬ뺭볃늨뚯뗄훷튪풭틲퓚폚헾뢮뗄맽뛉룉풤ꎬ잿뗷췢짺틲쯘뗄훷떼ퟷ폃ꎬ춬쪱붨솢췢퓚돥믷ꆪꆪ쓚퓚뒫떼믺훆쿠뷡뫏뗄ퟜ쳥럖컶뿲볜ꎻ퓚퇐뺿랽램짏ꎬ쯻쏇럖컶쪵볊틲쯘뛔뺭볃늨뚯뗄펰쿬ꎬ탎돉맦랶탔ꆢ캢맛뮯뗄쟷쫆ꆣ듓닉폃듳탍뗄뺭볃볆솿쒣탍쿲킡탍뗄ꆢ횱뷓쯦믺뗄ퟜ쳥뻹뫢쒣탍ꎻ퓚헾닟훷헅짏ꎬ퓲힢훘룄짆릩룸쏦ꎬ잿뗷랢믓쫐뎡뺭볃뗄ퟔ짭뗷뷚ퟷ폃ꎬ춬쪱쳡돶솢ퟣ폚훐뎤웚뗄뷏캪컈뚨뗄뺭볃퓶뎤헾닟ꆣ냩쯦ퟅ룷맺뺭볃뗄랢햹뫍늨뚯퇐뺿뗄짮죫ꎬ탎돉쇋벸듳쮼쿫쳥쾵ꎺ1ꎩ퓧웚뗄뺭볃늨뚯럖컶웤훐뷏폐펰쿬뗄샭싛돽릩쟳뻹뫢싛췢ꎬ뮹폐웸뫲폫얩튵쫕돉싛ꆢ탄샭싛ꆢ뒿믵뇒샭싛뗈ꆣ2ꎩ틔뾭뛷쮹쮼쿫캪훷뗄늨뚯샭싛폐펰쿬뗄쫇듓뒢탮춶뗄뷇뛈럖컶쇋늨뚯닺짺뗄풭틲ꎬ탎돉쇋춶맽뛈싛ꆢ쿻럑늻ퟣ싛뗈ꆣ3ꎩ폫탂맅뗤훷틥쮼쿫쿠솪뗄뺭볃늨뚯샭싛헢샠샭싛훐ꎬ틔쮹슬듄믹뫍뾨삳듄믹뗄쯦믺뺭볃늨뚯쒣탍ꆢ믵뇒훷틥톧엉뗄뺭볃늨뚯샭싛ꆢ릩룸톧엉뗄뺭볃늨뚯샭싛ꆢ샭탔풤웚톧엉뗄뺭볃늨뚯샭싛ꆢ쪵볊뺭볃늨뚯샭싛ꆢ헾훎뺭볃늨뚯샭싛ꆢ춻뇤훜웚샭싛ꆢ탅쾢훜웚샭싛캪듺뇭ꆣ6
랿뗘닺늨뚯퇐뺿ퟛ쫶쯤좻퓚쪵볊퓋탐맽돌훐ꎬ랿뗘닺뺭볃폫뫪맛뺭볃튻퇹듦퓚ퟅ뷏캪쏷쿔뗄늨뚯쿖쿳ꎬ떫맘폚랿뗘닺늨뚯좴듦퓚ퟅ늻춬뗄뷢쫍ꆣ1ꎩ맘폚랿뗘닺늨뚯뗄늻춬샭뷢춨맽볬쯷폐맘컄쿗ꎬ폐맘랿뗘닺늨뚯룅쓮뗄샭뷢훷튪폐틔쿂쇹훖듺뇭탔뗄맛뗣ꎺ(1) 랿뗘닺늨뚯폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡늨뚯ꆣ헢훖맛뗣죏캪ꎺ랿뗘닺튵퓚웰럼늨뚯뗄랢햹맽돌훐ꎬ돊쿖돶평뢴쯕ꆢ랱죙ꆢ쮥췋뫍쿴쳵뗈릹돉뗄톭뮷늨뚯ꎬ평듋탎돉랿뗘[2]닺늨뚯믲랿뗘닺쫐뎡늨뚯ꆣ(2) 늻뚯닺뺭볃늨뚯ꆣ헢훖맛뗣죏캪ꎺ퓚ꆪ냣쫐뎡뺭볃잰쳡쿂ꎬ평늻뚯닺ퟜ릩룸뫍ퟜ탨쟳뗄늨뚯벰웤쿠뮥ퟷ폃뛸닺짺뗄늻뚯닺뺭볃늨뚯ꎬ돊쿖돶늨뚯뗄쳘헷ꎬ평듋탎돉늻뚯닺뺭볃늨뚯ꆣ늻뚯닺뺭볃늨뚯쫇늻뚯닺늨뚯뗄ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ뿉틔럖캪컥룶뷗뛎ꎺ늻뚯닺릩쟳쪧뫢튻쫐뎡쿝폚믮풾튻랱죙튻뷴쯵튻쿴쳵ꆣ쯼틔늻뚯닺뺭볃뗄럇뻹뫢랢햹ퟷ캪럖컶뗄죫쫖뗣ꆣ(3) 랿뗘닺튵늨뚯ꆣ헢훖맛뗣죏캪ꎺ폫뫪맛뺭볃뗄늨뚯쿠쯆ꎬ랿뗘닺튵랢햹ꆢ랿뗘닺뗄룷룶뮷뷚튲듦퓚늨뚯쿖쿳ꎬ헢튻룅쓮뗄쓚몭럡뢻ꆣ(4) 랿뗘닺뺰웸톭뮷ꆣ헢훖맛뗣훷튪퓚첨췥ꆢ쿣룛톧헟볤쇷탐ꆣ쯹캽뺰웸톭뮷쫇횸뺭볃믮뚯뗄탋쪢(뺰웸)폫쮥췋(늻뺰웸)쿖쿳뇋듋붻쳦훘뢴돶쿖뗄뇭쿳ꆣ폫듋쿠샠쯆ꎬ랿뗘닺뺰웸톭뮷뻍쫇랿뗘닺뺭볃믮뚯훘뢴붻쳦돶쿖탋쪢ꆢ쮥췋뗄뺭볃쿖쿳ꆣ(5) 랿뗘닺뺭볃퓋탐늨뚯믲랿뗘닺뺭볃늨뚯퓋탐맽돌ꆣ헢훖맛뗣죏캪ꎺ랿뗘닺뺭볃퓋탐늨뚯쫇랿뗘닺뺭볃퓚솬탸늻뛏톭뮷퓋뚯뗄튻룶늨뚯쓚쯹뺭맽뗄룷뷗뛎뫍뮷뷚ꎬ쯼틔랿뗘닺짌욷뗄짺닺캪웰뗣ꎬ냼삨뗘닺뾪랢ꆢ붨퓬랿컝ꆢ랿뗘닺펪쿺ꆢ쪹폃ꆢ캬탞폫럾컱ꆢ닰돽뗈뷗뛎믲뮷뷚ꆣ(6) 랿뗘닺짺쏼늨뚯ꆣ폫죎뫎닺욷뗄짺쏼늨뚯뮮럖캪춶튻짺닺튻붻틗튻쪹폃쯄룶뷗뛎쿠쯆ꎬ랿뗘닺뗄짺쏼늨뚯튲쫇평헢쯄룶뷗뛎늻뛏톭뮷훘뢴뛸닺짺뗄맽돌ꆣ탨튪힢틢뗄쫇ꎬ랿뗘닺짺쏼늨뚯훜웚풶뇈튻냣닺욷룼뎤ꆣ2ꎩ뛔쿖폐랿뗘닺늨뚯뚨틥뗄볲튪움쫶듓놾훊짏럖컶ꎬ틔짏쇹훖맛뗣쪵볊짏뿉틔맩쓉캪솽듳샠ꆣ잰쯄훖맛뗣뚼쫇듓뺭볃늨뚯뗄뷇뛈살뚨틥랿뗘닺늨뚯ꎬ늢쟒믹놾짏뚼냑랿뗘닺늨뚯럖캪삩헅폫쫕쯵솽듳뷗뛎ꎬ벴뢴쯕튻랱죙튻쮥췋튻쿴쳵쯄룶맽돌ꆣ뫳솽훖맛뗣뚼쫇듓랿뗘닺튵뗄퓋탐맽돌살뚨틥랿뗘닺늨뚯ꎬ뚼쫴폚랿뗘닺튵퓋탐뗄뿍맛맽돌ꎬ믲헟쮵쫇랿뗘닺믮뚯뗄뇘뺭뷗뛎ꆣ춨맽볲튪뇈뷏뫍럖컶ꎬ짏쫶맛뗣믲솽듳샠뾴램쯤좻퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏뷒쪾쇋랿뗘7
닺늨뚯뗄쳘헷믲탔훊ꎬ떫죔좻듦퓚폐듽췪짆뗄뗘랽ꆣ(1) 랿뗘닺늨뚯쫇랿뗘닺튵퓋탐맽돌훐듦퓚뗄뺭볃늨뚯ꆣ잰쯄훖맛뗣컞싛쫇냑뺭볃늨뚯볲돆캪늨뚯ꎬ뮹쫇닉좡뺰웸뗈늻춬쏻돆ꎬ뚼듓룹놾짏냑컕쇋랿뗘닺늨뚯뗄놾훊쳘헷ꆣ쿠뇈횮쿂ꎬ뫳솽훖맛뗣냑랿뗘닺늨뚯뗈춬폚랿뗘닺튵퓋탐맽돌ꎬ쪵볊짏틑뎬돶쇋뺭볃늨뚯뗄랶캧ꆣ쯤좻랿뗘닺뺭볃늨뚯폫랿뗘닺짺쏼늨뚯믲퓋탐늨뚯듦퓚쏜쟐뗄솪쾵ꎬ떫솽헟늢늻쓜뗈춬뾴듽ꆣ(2) 랿뗘닺늨뚯쫇뺭볃늨뚯퓚랿뗘닺튵퓋탐뗄뇭쿖랽쪽ꆣ퓚짏쫶맛뗣훐ꎬ돽뗚죽훖맛뗣듓랿뗘닺튵랢햹맽돌쳡돶랿뗘닺튵늨뚯룅쓮틔벰ퟮ뫳솽훖맛뗣듓닺튵맽돌럖컶웤짺쏼늨뚯믲퓋탐늨뚯횮췢ꎬ웤폠죽훖맛뗣뚼쎻폐듓닺튵뷇뛈살쳖싛늨뚯컊쳢ꆣ쪵볊짏ꎮ평폚랿뗘닺믲늻뚯닺룅쓮놾짭듦퓚뛠훖샭뷢ꎮ틲듋뫜죝틗떼훂랿뗘닺늨뚯믲늻뚯닺늨뚯뗄믬쿽ꎬ평듋틽웰룅쓮짏뗄웧틥ꆣ컒쏇죏캪ꎬ횻폐듓쫐뎡뗄뷇뛈살럖헛랿뗘닺뺭볃맽돌뗄늨뚯ꎬ닅폐뿉쓜헦헽샭뷢뫍냑컕랿뗘닺늨뚯ꆣ(3) 랿뗘닺늨뚯쫇랿뗘닺닺튵퓋탐맽돌훐뗄늨뚯쿖쿳ꆣ듓헢룶뷇뛈살뾴ꎬ짏쏦쇹훖맛뗣뚼듦퓚튻룶릲춬뗄컊쳢ꎬ벴뛔랿뗘닺늨뚯쯹튪뷒쪾뗄뛔쿳좱짙럖컶ꎬ늢캴횸돶랿뗘닺늨뚯쫇랿뗘닺튵퓋탐맽돌훐뗄랿뗘닺뺭볃쮮욽뗄늨뚯ꆣ돽듋횮췢ꎬ튲쎻폐뛔랿뗘닺튵늨뚯ꆢ랿뗘닺뺭볃늨뚯ꆢ랿뗘닺쫐뎡늨뚯뗈룅쓮뷸탐쏷좷뗄쟸럖뫍뷧뚨ꎬ평듋죝틗틽웰룅쓮짏뗄믬싒ꆣ3ꎩ랿뗘닺쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ뿶뗄퇐뺿ퟛ쫶[3]맺췢뛔랿뗘닺늨뚯뗄쏨쫶뷸탐쇋퇐뺿ꎬMankiw뫍Weil뛔랿뗘닺볛룱늨뚯ퟷ쇋ퟜ쳥탔쏨쫶ꎻHitoshi Saito뛔쏀죕솽맺뗄랿뗘닺늨뚯ퟷ쇋뇈뷏퇐뺿ꆣ맘폚랿뗘닺폫맺쏱뺭볃믹뒡뗄맘쾵퇐뺿럇뎣맣랺ꎬ뛠쫽벯훐퓚풤웚뫍짧믡뺭볃틲쯘뛔랿뗘닺볛룱뗄펰쿬짏ꎬ죧쏀맺뗄Mankiw뫍Weil퇐뺿쇋쏀맺춳볆죋뿚뗄뇤뮯뛔랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄펰쿬ꆣQuigley뇈뷏쇋늻춬뺭볃틲쯘뛔뗘닺쫐뎡뗄펰쿬ꆣ[4]Wheaton뫍Case,Shiller퇐뺿쇋쯦췢짺뇤솿뛸뇤뮯뗄쫐뎡볛룱쒣탍ꆣQuigley춨맽뛔뚫쓏퇇맺볒뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꎬ죏캪랿뗘닺쫐뎡뛔퇇훞뺭볃캣믺웰쇋훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ퓚랿뗘닺늨뚯뗄탎돉뫍랢햹쒣탍뗄퇐뺿랽쏦ꎬAbraham뫍Hendershott냑뻶뚨랿볛뗄틲쯘럖캪솽샠ꎺ뗚튻샠뻶뚨뻹뫢볛룱ꎬ쯻쏇쫇붨훾돉놾ꆢ샍뚯쫕죫ꆢ뻍튵ힴ뿶뫍쮰뫳샻싊4룶틲쯘뗄몯쫽ꎻ뗚뛾샠쫇펰쿬랿볛뚯첬뇤뮯뗄틲쯘ꎬ훷튪폐풤웚ꆢ쪵볊볛룱폫뻹뫢볛룱뗄닮틬솽틲쯘ꆣOrtalo-Magne뫍Sven,Rady퓋폃짺쏼훜웚뺭볃쒣탍ꎬ뗃돶쇋쫕죫뇤뮯뫍뷰죚ퟔ평뮯쫇펰쿬랿뗘닺늨뚯뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ맺쓚랿뗘닺쫐뎡뺭맽1992ꆫ1994쓪뗄듳웰듳실틔뫳틽웰폐맘톧헟뫍튵쓚죋쪿뗄맘힢ꎬ돶쿖쇋튻킩퇐뺿랿뗘닺쫐뎡퓋탐쳘헷뫍늨뚯풭틲뗄컄헂ꎬ튻킩돇쫐튲쿠볌붨솢쇋랿뗘닺횸쫽쾵춳뷨듋쏨쫶랿뗘닺쫐뎡퓋ퟷힴ뿶ꆣ퓚샭싛퇐뺿랽쏦ꎬ평킻뺭죙뫍쇵뫩폱쿈짺뢺퓰뗄훘뗣믹뷰쿮쒿ꆶ랿뗘닺튵폫짧믡뺭볃킭뗷랢햹퇐뺿ꆷ첽8
쳖쇋랿뗘닺폫맺쏱뺭볃킭뗷랢햹뗄맦싉ꎻ킻뺭죙뷌쫚쇬떼뗄뿎쳢ퟩ췪돉뗄맺볒짧뿆믹뷰훺뿎쳢폫맺볒ퟔ좻믹뷰훘뗣뿎쳢ꆪꆪꆶ뗘닺엝쒭폫뷰죚캣믺ꆷ듓뷰죚뫍뫪맛뗄뷇뛈럖컶쇋럀횹뗘닺엝쒭닺짺뗄듫쪩ꆣ틔샷틔쓾ꆢ쿴ퟆ믹ꆢ췵킡맣ꆢ맋퓆닽ꆢ퇮짷ꆢ닜헱솼ꆢ췴샻쓈뗈캪듺뇭뗄볒닉폃뚨탔랽램퇐뺿쇋랿뗘닺쫐뎡ힴ뿶벰웤뗷뿘냬램ꎬ뛸쟒맛뗣듳쿠뺶춥ꎬ췵ꆢ췴뗈죏캪컒맺뷼쓪랿뗘닺쫐뎡폐엝쒭ꆢ튪뗷뿘ꎻ뛸맋죏캪랿뗘닺펭살쇋ꆰ믆뷰쓪ꆱꎻ평뚡쇒퓆뢺퓰뗄2003쓪뷡쳢뗄맺ퟔ믹뷰쿮쒿ꆶ돇쫐랿뗘닺풤뺯쾵춳퇐뺿ꆷꎬ뛔랿뗘닺풤뺯쾵춳뗄샭싛뫍랽램뷸탐쇋쾵춳퇐뺿ꆣ짏몣ꆢ짮?ꆢ커몺뗈뗘뷸탐쇋돇쫐랿뗘닺쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쪵횤럖컶ꆣ맺볒믹뷰캯튲폚2004쓪뛔컒맺랿뗘닺랢햹ힴ뿶뷸탐럖컶뫍에뛏ꆣ좻뛸헢킩퇐뺿뚼쫇헫뛔폚컒맺랿뗘닺헻쳥쫐뎡뗄퓋탐ꎬ평폚랿뗘닺뗄닮틬탔뫍힡햬놾짭욷훊쳘탔ꎬퟜ뗄돇쫐랿뗘닺쫐뎡늨뚯맦싉늢늻쓜듺뇭힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯맦싉ꎬ평듋쯹닺짺뗄랿뗘닺뗷뿘듫쪩튲좱랦헫뛔탔ꆣ 힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄퇐뺿ퟛ쫶쯤좻듓20쫀볍돵튶Keynes랢뇭ꆰ춨싛ꆱ틔살ꎬ컷랽쳘뇰훘쫓뺭볃뗄퓶뎤쟷쫆뫍늨뚯맦싉뗄퇐뺿ꎬ붨솢쇋늨뚯뗄뒫춳Keynes샭싛ꆢ탂Keynes샭싛틔벰RBC샭싛믹뒡ꎬ떫맘폚힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쳢샭싛퇐뺿좴캴돉쳥쾵ꎬ20쫀볍60쓪듺ꎬ닅[5]뾪쪼돶쿖랿뗘닺힡햬붨훾쫐뎡늨뚯퇐뺿뗄컄헂ꎨꎬ1963ꎩꎬ훁80쓪듺컷랽훘탂죏쪶Keynes뗄샭싛횮뫳ꎬ맺볊짏폐맘힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄퇐뺿닅훰늽퓶뛠ꎬ웤퇐뺿쓚죝훷튪폐틔쿂죽룶랽쏦ꎺ1ꎩ듓뫪맛뗄뷇뛈럖컶첽쟳힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄풭틲ꆣ폐볒죏캪힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쫇평폚힡햬붨짨뗄뇤뮯훍뫳폚힡햬탨쟳뗄뇤뮯;튲폐볒죏캪훍뫳뗄퓶횵싊쫇힡햬쫐[6][7]뎡늨뚯뗄훆퓬헟ꆣ뮹폐볒틔뷏뎤뗄쪱볤탲쇐쇏캪믹뒡퇐뺿힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꎻ2ꎩ듓캢맛뗄뷇뛈럖컶쒳샠컯튵뗄늨뚯맦싉ꆣ죏캪힡랿쫐뎡볛룱뗄뇤뮯믡떼훂힡랿볛룱몯쫽랢짺뇤뮯ꎻ힡랿뇟볊볛룱뗄뇤뮯뛔쫐뎡뻹뫢맽돌뗄펰쿬뇈뛔욽뻹볛[7]룱뇤뮯뗄펰쿬룼폐틢틥ꎻ늢ퟅ훘폚돇쫐쟸폲ꆢ듎벶쫐뎡믲컯튵캻훃랶캧쓚뗄랿뗘닺늨뚯퇐뺿ꎬ훷튪럖컶냬릫슥ꆢ힡햬ꆢ릤튵폃랿뫍짌튵폃랿뗈룷샠컯튵퓚늻춬쫐[6][8]뎡늨뚯뷗뛎뗄춶닟싔ꆣ3ꎩ닉폃뛠랽램뫍뛠쒣탍퇐뺿힡햬쫐뎡ꆣ튻쫇닉폃늻춬횸뇪쏨쫶힡햬쫐뎡ꎬ죧훘뢴쿺쫛볛룱횸쫽ꆢHedonic횸쫽ꆢ힡햬욽뻹볛룱ꆢ힡햬뾪릤솿ꆢ룶죋쫕죫뗈ꎻ뛾쫇샻폃쒣탍럖컶힡햬쫐뎡ꎬ죧믘맩쒣탍ꎨCase and Shiller, 1990ꎩꆢퟢ뷰퓶뎤싊뫍ퟢ뷰럖늼쒣탍ꎨMuellerꎬ1999ꎩꆢ힡햬듦솿폫퓶솿쒣탍ꎨ뮨뺴좺ꎬ1999ꎩ뗈ꎻ죽쫇붨솢힡햬릩룸뫍탨쟳쒣탍럖컶힡햬쫐뎡뗄뻹뫢ힴ뿶ꆣ9
퓚헢킩퇐뺿훐ꎬ폐킩쫇쳡릩춶믺탐캪뗄횤뻝ꎬ룼뛠뗄퇐뺿죧Kenny, Bacon,Murphy and MacCabe뗄퇐뺿붫붹뗣뻛쿲힡햬볛룱뗄믹뒡ꆣvan Norden (1996) 붫힡햬볛룱럖뷢캪믹뒡늿럖뫍럇믹뒡늿럖ꎬ뾪랢뗄regime-switching model살볬퇩힡햬[9]볛룱뗄뚯솦쳘헷ꆣ평van Norden쳡돶뗄Monte Carlo싛뻝ꎨevidenceꎩ쿔쪾쇋쟩뺰뮻볬퇩ꎨregime-switching testsꎩ뇈뺭뎣퓚컄쿗훐쪹폃뗄컈뚨탔볬퇩뻟폐뷏뫃뗄폐쿞퇹놾쫴탔ꎬ퓚쇭튻샠Monte Carlo퇐뺿훐ꎬ폐뗄톧헟붫힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯죚죫떽쫐뎡엝쒭뗄퇐뺿훐ꎬEvans (1991)뷒쪾쇋벴쪹엝쒭좷쪵듦퓚쪱ꎬ컈뚨탔볬퇩튲맽[10][11]뛈뻜뻸쇋엝쒭ꎬFlood and Hodrick(1990)횸돶ꎺ춨맽튻룶춶믺엝쒭쯹풤닢뗄탐캪횤뻝늻쫇튻룶엝쒭듦퓚뗄좷뚨탔싛뻝ꆣ춨맽맛달ꎬ훆뛈뮻뗄샭싛믹뒡뗈볛폚평엝쒭췆뚯뗄쟩뺰뮻쒣탍ꎨregime-switching modelꎩꎬ늻맜죧뫎뷢쫍훆뛈뮻뗄싛뻝ꎬ헢튻뷡맻폫엝쒭럁낭쇋쫐뎡폐킧탔뗄뚨샭쿠튻훂ꆣ헢킩퇐뺿훐ꎬ쎻폐죋첽쳖힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔뫍늨뚯쳘탔ꎬퟮ룹놾뗄쫇웤퇐뺿뚼쫇틔췁뗘쮽폐훆캪잰쳡뛸뷸탐ꆣ맺췢폐맘쫐뎡뗷뿘뗄컄쿗훷튪퓚뫪맛뺭볃뗷뿘ꆢ뷰죚럧쿕뗷뿘ꆢ훘듳퓖쟩ꆢ틟쟩풤뺯풤놨ꆢ쪧튵럧쿕맜샭ꆢ듻뿮럧쿕맜샭ꆢ쿮쒿럧쿕ꆢ릤돌럧쿕뗄쪶뇰ꆢ솿뮯틔벰죧뫎럀랶랽쏦ꆣ뛸짙솿짦벰랿뗘닺럧쿕맜샭뗄퇐뺿튲훷튪뻖쿞퓚랿뗘닺춶럧쿕ퟩ뫏ꆢ랿뗘닺횤좯쫐뎡럖컶ꆢ짧믡뢣샻뗄뷇뛈ꎬ힡햬ퟢ뷰뿘훆틔벰힡햬쫐뎡뗄춶믺퇐뺿횮훐ꎬ늢쟒폐쿠떱뗄퇐뺿닻쫶뺺헹뗄힡랿쫐뎡늻탨튪뗷뿘ꎬ뛸평ꆰ뾴늻볻뗄쫖ꆱ살ퟔ탐뗷뷚ꎬ뫜짙듓튻룶헾뢮뗄뷇뛈퇐뺿돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뗷뿘믺샭뫍뗷뿘듫쪩ꆣ[12]맺쓚힡랿쫐뎡ퟔ붨맺뾪쪼훁1993쓪뒦폚ꆰ떭뮯쫐뎡뷗뛎ꆱ,떱쪱쫇릫볒붨릫랿ꎬ평탐헾뷸탐럖엤ꆢ릩펦뫍맜샭뗄훆뛈ꎬ릫폐힡랿늻탭짏쫐붻틗ꎻ쮽랿붻틗뷏짙ꎻ돶ퟢ쮽랿쮰싊뷏룟ꎻ릫랿돶ퟢ폫쮽랿돶ퟢ뛠틔ꆰ뗘쿂ꆱ뗄탎쪽듦퓚ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡캴뗃떽폐킧랢폽ꆣ쯹틔듓ퟜ쳥뛸퇔믹놾짏늻듦퓚짌욷힡랿쫐뎡ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡듓1993쓪뾪쪼늽죫쇋믖뢴뫍랢햹웚ꎬ웤틔솽볾듳쫂볾ퟷ캪뇪횾ꎺ튻쫇1993쓪컒맺떳뗄14듳좷솢쇋붨솢쫐뎡뺭볃쳥훆쫇컒맺뺭볃쳥훆룄룯뗄훷튪쒿뇪ꎻ뛾쫇맺냬랢[1988]13뫅랿룄컄볾맦뚨ꎬ돶쫛뗄릫랿탨튪컥쓪닅쓜짏쫐ꎬ벴쪹컒맺ퟮ퓧돶쫛뗄릫랿튲튪뗈떽1993쓪뷸죫쫐뎡쇷춨ꆣ훁듋ꎬ맘폚컒맺힡햬쫐뎡뗄퇐뺿닅훰늽햹뾪ꎬ떫떱쪱훷튪틔뷩짜맺췢뗄퇐뺿돉맻캪훷ꆣ쒿잰ꎬ맺쓚붫힡햬탨쟳ퟷ캪펰쿬돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄훘튪틲쯘뷸탐쇋튻킩첽[13]쳖ꎬ첽쯷쇋튻킩폐맘힡햬탨쟳풤닢뗄퇐뺿랽램ꆣ쯯샶늨뗈춨맽랿볛쫕죫뇈뫍힡[14]랿쿻럑횧돶뇈솽룶횸뇪살풤닢짏몣쫐뗄힡랿탨쟳ꎻ닜맢믔뗈닉좡훰늽믘맩뫍ퟩ[15]뫏풤닢럖컶뗄랽램뗃돶쇋훘쟬쫐훷돇쟸힡햬탨쟳ퟜ솿풤닢쒣탍ꎻ즳샚퓋폃BP짱[16]뺭췸싧뛔짏몣힡햬쫐뎡뗄탨쟳뷸탐쇋풤닢ꎻ룰뷰믔뗈춨맽붨솢ퟔ믘맩쒣탍뛔짌10
[17]욷힡햬뗄쿺쫛솿뷸탐풤닢ꎻ쮹쟙퓋폃믒즫풤닢쾵춳뛔쓚쏉맅ퟔ훎쟸돇헲뻓쏱뗄[18][19]짌욷랿쿺쫛뷸탐쇋풤닢ꎬ죎죙죙ꆢ헅뫬닉폃컳닮탞헽쒣탍ꎬ뛔놱뺩쫐힡햬쫐[20]뎡뷸탐럖컶ꎬ늢뷸뛸풤닢2005쓪뗄힡햬탨쟳솿ꎻ쳯ꆢ헅솦풴룹뻝컒맺룄룯뾪럅틔살뗄쪵볊쟩뿶ꎬ뷡뫏쏀맺맀볛톧믡뛔늻뚯닺탨쟳뗄뎤웚퇐뺿ꎬ붫짌욷힡햬뗄룶죋릺싲뗄쏦믽듺뇭짌욷힡햬룶죋탨쟳ꎬ돇헲뻓쏱죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫랴펳뻓쏱ퟛ뫏릺싲쓜솦뗄뻛벯ꎬ돇헲죋뿚햼ퟜ죋뿚뇈훘랴펳죋뿚뗄잨틆벰뗘샭럖늼뗄룄뇤뛔쫐뎡돉뎤뗄믹놾펰쿬ꎬ쪵볊듦뿮샻싊ퟛ뫏랴펳샻싊헾닟뫍컯볛쮮욽뛔뻓쏱쪵볊릺싲쓜솦뫍릺싲틢풸뗄펰쿬ꎬ럖컶쯼쏇횮볤뗄맘쾵틔벰뛔쫐뎡뗄펰쿬ꎻ몫퇶뻽ꎬ헅ퟚ[21]뎱럖컶첽쳖쇋힡햬닺튵랢햹훜웚폫뫪맛뺭볃훜웚뗄맘쾵ꎬ뗃돶쇋힡햬닺튵훜웚폫뫪맛뺭볃훜웚쫇튻훖헽쿠맘맘쾵뗄뷡싛ꆣ맺쓚뗄훜뺩뿼틀뻝랿뗘닺춶믺샭싛쒣탍ꎬ닉폃쪵횤럖컶뗄랽램ꎬ붫랿뗘닺춶믺쮮욽뫍뿉횧엤쫕죫폫랿뗘닺볛룱늨뚯뗄맘쾵뷸탐쇋퇐뺿ꎬ뷡맻뇭쏷뿉횧엤쫕죫[22]뛔랿뗘닺볛룱뗄늨뚯쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬ꎬ볛룱뗄늨뚯훷튪평춶믺살췆뚯ꆣ[23]뮹폐뗄톧헟붫쏀맺햽뫳뗄뺭볃늨뚯폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쿠뇈헕ꎬ뗃돶쯻쏇횮볤뗄맦싉믹놾튻훂ꎬ쮥췋뗄쪱볤믹놾쿠춬ꆣ떫쏀맺뫍웤쯻맺볒뺭볃폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쳘뗣쫇럱럻뫏21쫀볍탂뺭볃뗄늨뚯맦싉ꎬ쫇럱쫊폃폚훐맺뗄쪵볊ힴ뿶ꎬ뮹폐듽폚뷸튻늽퇐뺿ꆣ캪쇋뫏샭럖컶ꆢ움볛컒맺돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄퓋탐ힴ뿶ꎬ캪맺볒뫍룷돇쫐헾뢮뗷뿘짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ꎬ뫏샭틽떼힡햬춶뫍뻓쏱힡햬쿻럑ꎬ듙뷸컒맺힡햬쫐뎡맦랶랢햹ꎬ폐킧뗘럀랶뗘쟸뺭볃캣믺ꎬ붵뗍ꆰ랿뗘닺엝쒭ꆱ돉럖ꆣ첽쟳럻뫏컒맺맺쟩뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯맦싉뻍쿔뗃폈캪뇘튪ꆣ 놾컄뗄훷튪릤ퟷ 퇐뺿쮼슷1ꎩ룹뻝릤ퟷ뫍뿆퇐믹뒡ꎬ뾼싇떽컒맺틔힡햬튵캪훷뗄랿뗘닺튵틑돉캪맺쏱뺭볃뗄횧훹닺튵ꎬ뛸퓚쫐뎡뺭볃쳵볾쿂뗄힡햬쫐뎡퇐뺿좴뫜늻돉쫬ꎬ풭폐뗄힡햬뺭볃뫍맜샭샭싛쎻폐쾵춳뷢쫍컒맺힡햬쫐뎡돶쿖뗄늨뚯쿖쿳ꎬ쿖폐뗄힡햬쫐뎡컊쳢쓑틔뗃떽폐킧뷢뻶ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ맺췢뗄힡햬맜샭쳥훆폖폫컒맺뗄맜샭쳥훆쿠닮뷏듳ꎬ퓚컒맺뗄힡햬뺭볃맜샭쪵볹훐폖쓑틔헕냡맺췢뗄샭싛뫍랽램ꆣ틲듋ꎬ캪듙뷸힡햬닺튵뗄랢햹ꎬ컒맺벱탨쿠맘샭싛횸떼ꆣ놾싛컄퓚맣랺쫕벯맺쓚췢쿠맘샭싛퇐뺿돉맻뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ뷡뫏컒맺돇쫐뺭볃뫍랿뗘닺튵뗄쿠맘쫽뻝쳵볾ꎬ쳡돶쇋퇐뺿훷11
쳢ꆣ2ꎩ틔훐맺춳볆쓪본뫍퇹뗣돇쫐쪵볊닉벯뗄쫽뻝캪믹뒡ꎬ틀뻝힡햬폫랿뗘닺뺭볃샭싛뫍Granger틲맻맘쾵럖컶랽램ꎬ뷡뫏컒맺힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뗄쒿뇪뫍쳘뗣ꎬ럖컶컒맺힡햬쫐뎡쾵춳릹돉뫍펰쿬튪쯘벰웤쿠뮥볤뮥뚯맘쾵ꆣ3ꎩ룹뻝돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄폕틲ꎬ퓚힡햬쫐뎡뻖늿뻹뫢쒣탍뫍듦솿ꎭ퓶솿쒣탍뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ뷨훺쯵풼쒣탍뗄믹놾쮼쿫붫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄췢짺뫍쓚짺쏴룐탔틲쯘쓉죫떽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄뚯첬럖컶훐ꎬ듓ퟝ쿲뷇뛈틽죫럇쪱훍뗷헻뫍쪱훍뗷헻뗄솽샠쒣쪽ꎬ릹훾늻춬탎쪽뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쪱탲뚯첬쒣탍ꎬ닉폃뛔쫽쒣탍맀쯣낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄쪱탲뚯첬늨뚯ힴ뿶ꆣ4ꎩ듓뫡쿲뷇뛈릹붨럻뫏컒맺돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐ힴ뿶뗄힡햬쫐뎡뫡뷘쏦뚯첬쒣탍ꎬ틔컒맺15룶뢱쪡벶돇쫐캪퇹놾뷸탐쪵횤럖컶ꆣ럖컶컒맺돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄뚯첬쳘탔ꎬ늢뛔컒맺돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯첬쫆ퟷ돶럖컶ꎬ캪컒맺힡햬닺튵뗄랢햹쳡릩샭싛뫍랽램짏뗄횧돖ꎬ듙뷸컒맺힡햬쫐뎡뗄돖탸ꆢ붡뾵랢햹ꆣ5ꎩ퓚랿뗘닺볛횵샭싛뫍랿뗘닺춶샭싛뗄횧돖쿂ꎬ첽쳖폫컒맺췁뗘폐쿞웚쪹폃훆뛈쿠쫊펦뗄힡햬쫐뎡춶쫕틦싊뗄좷뚨쒣쪽ꎬ쳡돶믹폚횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶샭싛뫍랽램ꆣ6ꎩ퓚힡햬쫐뎡뫪맛뮷뺳튪쯘ꆢ랿뗘닺퓋탐튪쯘폫힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄뮥뚯맘쾵퇐뺿뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ틔뺭볃늨뚯퇐뺿훐춨뎣닉폃뗄CI뫍DI캪믹뒡ꎬ럖컶웤펦폃훐놩슶뗄컊쳢ꎬ틀뻝쫽뻝컳닮뒫능뗄맦싉ꎬ쳡돶튻룶탂뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯움볛횸쫽ꡄꡄ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯움볛뗄ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽ꎬퟷ캪힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯움볛뗄믹놾릤뻟ꎬ틔듋쏨쫶뫍움볛힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ힴ뿶ꆣ12
룹뻝힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐ힴ뿶뫍쿖쪵튪쟳ꎬ쳡돶컊쳢돇쫐힡햬쫐늻뿉탐뎡벰웤뫪맛돇쫐힡햬쫐뺭볃뇤솿쫽뎡쿠맘퇐뺿룹뻝퇐뺿믹뒡ꎬ에뛏쫇럱뿉탐뻝뗄닉벯ꆢ돉맻맩ퟜ뿉탐힡햬쫐뎡벰웤뮷뺳뇤솿럖컶톰쟳돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄폕틲솢ퟣ폚컒맺힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢폽뫍쇏쿖듓힡햬쫐뎡릩탨뗄뷇뛈ꆢ듓힡햬듎벶쫐ힴꎬ붨솢돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쾵춳ꎬ늢뎡뮥뚯뗄뷇뛈럖컶돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뛔컒맺믲퇹뗣돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡쪵횤럖컶뚯ꎬ붨솢쿠펦뗄샭싛쒣탍돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ뿶뗄움볛헫뛔돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ뿶ꎬ쳡돶뗷뿘뛔닟춼1ꎭ1 퇐뺿쮼슷춼7ꎩ룹뻝힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄움볛ힴ뿶뫍컒맺돇쫐맜샭뫍힡햬뺭볃폫맜샭쳥훆ꎬ듓췁뗘ꆢ뷰죚ꆢ쮰럑ꆢ랿뗘닺붻틗ꆢ솮ퟢ랿ꆢ뺭볃쫊폃랿맜샭틔벰탅쾢릫뾪뗈뷇뛈톡퓱폐듺뇭탔뗄헾닟뗷뿘뇤솿ꎬ럖컶캪놣횤돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡붡뾵랢햹뛸닉좡뗄뛔닟ꆣ 퇐뺿랽램놾컄틔맛달떽뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯틔벰쿠맘쾵춳뇤뮯뗄쫂쪵캪믹뒡ꎬ춨맽퇝틯ꎭ[24]맩쓉램뫍맛달램뗄ퟛ뫏퓋폃ꎬ럖컶컒맺돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯맦싉ꎬ늢틔쫔퇩쒣쓢캪릤뻟ꎬ첽쳖힡햬쫐뎡뗄뗷뿘뛔닟ꆣ헽죧죸틁ꎨSayꎩ쯹쫶ꎺꆰ캪튪믱뗃헦헽뗄횪쪶ꎬ늢늻탨튪쫬쾤뫜뛠쫂쪵ꆣ훘튪뗄쫇ꎬ헆컕믹놾뗄뫍폐횱뷓펰쿬뗄쫂쪵ꎻ룼훘튪뗄ꎬ쫇듓룷룶랽쏦퇐뺿헢킩쫂쪵ꎬ쪹컒쏇쓜릻듓헢킩쫂쪵췆돶헽좷뗄뷡싛ꎬ늢쪹컒쏇쯹죏캪평헢킩쫂쪵닺짺뗄[25]뷡맻좷쫇살ퟔ헢킩풭틲뛸늻쫇웤쯼풭틲ꆱꎬ놾컄퓚닻쫶쇋돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄믹놾룅쓮ꆢ뷧뚨쇋퇐뺿뗄믹놾뛔쿳틔뫳ꎬ벴캧죆ퟅ돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯헢튻훷쳢ꎬ럖컶폫횮폐맘뗄쾵춳ꎬ뛸붫웤쯼쾵춳쫓캪늻뇤ꆣ퓚뛔쒳튻샠컊쳢뷸탐뇤솿볤럖컶쪱ꎬ13
캪퓶볓횱맛탔뫍뇣폚샭뷢ꎬ튲볙짨웤쯻쳵볾늻뇤ꎬ횻뛔맛달떽뗄쿠맘뇤솿뾪햹퇐뺿ꆣ룹뻝삭뾨췐쮹뗄ꆰ횻폐쏨쫶쇋좷퓤쫂쪵뗄쏼쳢뫍평좷퓤쫂쪵컞컳뗘맩쓉룅삨[26]돶살뗄쏼쳢뿉놻뷓쓉떽뿆톧쳥훐살ꆱ쮼쿫ꆣ놾컄퓚샭싛럖컶뫍쒣탍릹훾늿럖ꎬ붫틽폃뗄풭샭ퟷ캪뿉뷓쫜뗄튻룶뿆톧쏼쳢ꎬ믲냑쯼볙뚨캪틑뺭횤쏷뗄헦쏼쳢뛸뷓쫜ꎻ죴럇틑뺭횤쏷믲폐캥뎣샭ꎬ뇣뻜돢헢튻쏼쳢ꎬ평쯹닉폃뗄쏼쳢췆떼돶뗄쏼쳢튪쎴뇘탫평쫂쪵횤쏷ꎬ튪쎴뇘탫평웤쯻틑뺭횤쏷뗄쏼쳢퇝틯뗘믲맩쓉뗘떼돶ꎬ틔듋살놣횤놾컄퇏룱뗄뿆톧퇏뷷탔ꆣ놾컄뗄ퟮ뫳펦폃쾵춳쮼캬랽램ꎬ붫쪵샽뮯샭싛폫퇝틯돶뗄쏼쳢쿠뷡뫏ꎬ뷸탐쪵횤럖컶뗃돶돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄쿠맘뗷뿘뛔닟ꆣ14
2 돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡벰웤늨뚯뗄뿍맛탔 힡햬뗄룅쓮벰웤믹놾쳘헷 힡햬뗄룅쓮쏀맺훸쏻톧헟Ko Chingshih쯹훸뗄ꆶAmerican HousingꎺA Macro Viewꆷ튻쫩훐ꎬ뛔쏀맺힡햬뗄쓚몭뫍췢퇓뷸탐쇋룅삨ꎺ힡햬쫇퓚쳘뚨뗄튻뿩췁뗘짏붨퓬뗄뎤뻃탔뗄붨훾컯벰웤럾컱ꆣ쏀맺뗄힡햬룅쓮샠쯆폚뒫춳틢틥짏훐맺뗄힡햬킡쟸쯹냼몬뗄쓚죝ꎬ쯼늻뷶냼삨떥룶뗄힡햬ꎬ뛸쟒냼삨힡햬뗄헻룶쫒췢뮷뺳뫍엤쳗짨쪩ꎬ벰웤헻룶짧쟸뗄럾컱ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ훐맺뗄힡햬붨짨ꎬ듓80쓪듺틔살ꎬ본폚떥뚰힡햬붨짨쯹듸살뗄짺믮늻뇣ꎬ뻍뾪쪼잿뗷ꆰퟛ뫏뾪랢ꆢ엤쳗붨짨ꆱꎻ춬쪱ꎬ죋쏇퓚릺싲짌욷힡햬쪱풽살풽훘쫓웤훜뇟뗄뺰맛뫍럕캧ꎬ뿉틔쮵샫뾪쇋쳘뚨뮷뺳뫍럾컱뗄힡햬쓑틔쳥쿖웤헦헽뗄볛횵ꆣ헽쫇듓헢튻뷇뛈뛸퇔ꎬ힡햬쫇튻룶믲뛠룶볒춥뻓힡뗄뎡쯹ꎬ쫇평힡햬붨훾ꆢ쟸캻뗘뿩ꆢ뮷뺳뫍짧쟸뗈ퟩ돉늿럖벰웤럾컱릹돉ꆣ늢늻쫇튻뚰뛀솢뗄슥랿ꎬ쯼늻뷶냼삨힡햬떥쳥ꎬ튲냼삨힡햬쯹뒦뗄뮷뺳폫짧쟸럾컱ꆣ1ꎩ힡햬떥쳥붨훾늿럖ꎺ룃ퟩ돉늿럖캪볒춥죕뎣짺믮쳡릩헚럧뇜폪뗄뿕볤ꆣ2ꎩ뗘뿩ꎺ룃ퟩ돉늿럖캪만뚨뢽ퟅ퓚웤짏뗄힡햬떥쳥붨훾쳡릩퓘쳥벰쫒췢뮷뺳ꆣ3ꎩ짧쟸럾컱ꎺ룃ퟩ돉늿럖쳡릩릫릲뇣샻뫍짧쟸럾컱ꆣ컒맺ퟔ돇쫐ퟛ뫏뾪랢틔살ꎬ폐쳵볾뗄돇쫐튻냣뚼닉좡쇋ꆰ폐맦뮮뗄뗘뛎붨짨ꆱ쒣쪽뷸탐킡쟸붨짨ꎬ탂힡햬뗄붨짨췹췹틔뷏듳맦쒣뗄탎쪽뷸탐ꎬ폐뗄짵훁탎돉쇋듳쏦믽뗄힡햬탂쟸ꎬ헢킩폫힡햬쿠엤쳗뗄힡햬짨쪩춨뎣냼삨뗘쿂죋럀짨쪩ꆢ폩샖짨쪩ꎬ톧킣ꎬ튽풺ꎬ뎵햾ꆢ훐탄싌뗘ꎬ벯쎳쫐뎡ꆢ짌뗪뫍웤쯻짧쟸럾컱짨쪩ꆣ틔짏죽룶늿럖쿠뮥ퟷ폃ꆢ쿠뮥솪쾵ꎬ릲춬쳡짽힡햬뗄볛횵ꆣ샻폃쳘뚨뗘뿩뗄랱뮪돌뛈ꆢ붻춨ힴ뿶ꆢ믹뒡짨쪩ꆢ뺰맛ꆢ뗘탎ꆢ뗘쫆뗈ퟔ좻쳵볾뫍맦뮮잰뺰ꎬ탭뛠힡햬붨짨헟캪릺랿헟쳡릩튻쾵쇐엤쳗짨쪩ꎬ냼삨쮮ꆢ뗧ꆢ뎵뿢ꆢ춣뎵뎡ꆢ뎵뗀ꆢ죋탐뗀ꆢ쳬뺮ꆢ퇴첨ꆢ폎펾돘ꆢ췸쟲뎡벰웤쯻뇘튪믲택쿐뗄뎡쯹뫍웤쯼쳡짽힡햬떥쳥붨훾뗄짨쪩ꎬ룄짆짧쟸럾컱ꎻ힡햬떥쳥붨훾뗄랭탂뫍룄퓬ꎬ폖믡쳡짽뗘뿩쟸캻쳵볾ꎬ듙뷸짧쟸럾컱훊솿뗄쳡룟ꆣ15
힡햬뗄믹놾쳘헷힡햬쫇횸죋쏇뻓힡뗄랿컝ꆣ쯼쫇튻훖쳘쫢짌욷ꎬ튻랽쏦ꎬ틲캪쯼쫇튻훖붨짨닺욷ꎬ뛸쟒횱뷓폫췁뗘풴벰웤샻폃뷴쏜쿠솬ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ쯼폖쫇죋쏇짺듦쯹뇘탨뗄컯훊쳵볾횮튻ꆣ틲듋ꎬ쯼뻟폐튻킩폫웤쯼짌욷늻춬뗄쫴탔ꆣ1ꎩퟔ좻쫴탔ퟔ좻쫴탔튲돆컯샭쫴탔ꎬ힡햬뗄컯샭쫴탔훷튪뇭쿖퓚죽룶랽쏦ꎺ쓍뻃탔ꎻ떥볾탔ꎨ틬훊탔ꎩꎻ만뚨탔ꆣ2ꎩ뺭볃쫴탔힡햬뗄뺭볃쫴탔뿉틔듓쪹폃볛횵뫍뺭볃볛횵솽랽쏦살뾼달ꆣ듓뺭볃볛횵랽쏦살뾴ꎬ힡햬쫇튻룶엓듳뗄뺭볃떥캻ꎬ듓췁뗘릺훃ꆢ뾪랢ꆢ떽뗘짏뷡릹붨훾뗄춶뛮쪮럖뿉맛ꎬ뛸쟒ꎬ웤햼폃뷰뗄쪱볤돉놾튲럇뎣듳ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컞싛쫇힡햬릩펦ꎬ뮹쫇힡햬탨쟳ꎬ뚼뇘탫폐쿠펦뗄죚믮뚯ꆣ웤듎ꎬ힡햬뮹뻟폐ퟔ좻퓶횳뗄쟷쿲ꆣ쯹캽ퟔ좻퓶횳ꎬ쫇횸퓚튻뚨쪱웚쓚ꎬ뿛돽춨믵엲헍ꆢힷ볓춶뗈틲쯘뫳ꎬ힡햬틲췢늿틲쯘뗄늻뛏룄짆쪹뗃쯹쓚몬뗄볛횵늻뛏짏짽뗄쿖쿳ꆣ퓙듎힡햬뗄볛횵폫훜캧뗄뮷뺳늻뿉럖룮뗘솪쾵퓚튻웰ꎬ붻춨쫇럱뇣뷝ꎬ뗧ꆢ웸ꆢ쮮ꆢ업컛쫇럱춨뎩ꎬ톧킣ꆢ튽풺ꆢ쿻럀뗈짨놸쫇럱웫좫ꎬ틔벰훜캧럧뺰ꆢ훎낲ힴ뿶뚼믡횱뷓펰쿬힡랿뗄볛횵ꆣ힡햬뗄쪹폃볛횵훷튪쳥쿖캪죋쏇택퇸짺쾢뗄뎡쯹ꎬ틲듋ꎬ튻쟐폐샻폚짺믮랽뇣뫍쫦쫊뗄훜캧뮷뺳ꎬ뚼믡퓶볓힡랿뗄쪹폃볛횵ꆣ폐쇋뚨뻓ꎬ짧믡붻췹닅쓜룼볓랽뇣뗘뷸탐ꆣ듓헢룶틢틥짏붲ꎬ힡햬쫇죋쏇뗄튻쿮믹놾좨샻ꎬ쫇짧믡랢햹뗄뇘좻튪쟳ꎬ룷맺헾뢮뚼폐틥컱캪웤뻓쏱쳡릩웰싫뗄뻓힡쳵볾ꆣ쇭췢힡랿뗄쪹폃볛횵튲쫇쿻럑뫍춶뗄폐믺춳튻ꎬ볈싺ퟣ죋쏇쿻럑탨쟳ꎬ폖쓜싺ퟣ죋쏇춶탨쟳ꆣ 힡햬쫐뎡 힡햬쫐뎡뗄몬틥듓쿁틥뗄샭뷢ꎬ쫐뎡쫇죋쏇뷸탐짌욷붻뮻뗄뎡쯹ꎻ듓맣틥뗄뷇뛈뛸퇔ꎬ쫐뎡[27]쫇짌욷붻뮻훐뺭볃맘쾵뗄ퟜ뫍ꆣ힡랿쫐뎡쫇랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄튻늿럖ꎬ쫇틔힡랿쪹폃좨믲쯹폐좨캪붻틗뛔쿳뛸탎돉뗄쫐뎡ꎬ쫇힡랿붻뮻맘쾵뗄ퟜ뫍ꆣ쯼쫇힡랿짺닺뫍쿻럑뗄쟅솺ꎬ쫇쫐뎡쳥쾵뗄튻룶훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꆣ16
힡랿쫐뎡뗄릩룸훷쳥쫇횸힡랿쯹쫴뗄쒳훖좨틦뗄죃돶헟ꎬ튲뻍쫇힡랿쫐뎡뗄싴랽ꆣ힡랿쫐뎡뗄탨쟳훷쳥쫇횸힡랿쯹쫴뗄쒳훖좨틦뗄훷쳥릺싲죋ꎬ튲뻍쫇힡랿쫐뎡뗄싲랽ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡뗄뿍쳥쫇힡햬놾짭ꆣ퓚힡랿쫐뎡짏ꎬ힡랿뗄싲싴쮫랽쫇힡랿쫐뎡뗄훷쳥ꎬ힡랿뗄돶쫛맽돌뻍쫇힡랿뗄릺싲맽돌ꆣ힡랿돶쫛헟뗄쒿뗄쫇캪쇋쪵쿖힡랿뗄볛횵믱뗃믵뇒ꎬ튻냣쟩뿶쿂쫇ힷ쟳힡햬뺭펪킧틦뗄ퟮ듳뮯ꎬ힡랿릺싲헟뗄쒿뗄쫇캪쇋믱뗃힡랿릩ퟔ벺쪹폃ꆢힷ쟳킧폃ퟮ듳뮯믲캪쇋룼뫃뗘췚뻲힡햬뗄잱퓚볛횵ꆣ 힡햬쫐뎡뗄쳘뗣힡햬쫐뎡뻟폐튻냣쫐뎡뗄웕뇩탔ꎬ폖폐쟸뇰폚웤쯻쫐뎡뗄쳘탔ꎬ뛔쳘탔뗄냑컕쫇퇐뺿뫍랢햹룃쫐뎡뗄맘볼ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뻟폐틔쿂쳘탔ꎺ1ꎩ힡랿쫐뎡뗄뗘쟸탔2ꎩ힡랿쫐뎡붻틗뛔쿳뗄좨틦탔3ꎩ쫐뎡늻췪좫뺺헹탔4ꎩ쫐뎡뛌웚릩룸좱랦떯탔5ꎩ럖룮탔뫍뛠풪탔6ꎩ힡랿쫐뎡붻틗뢴퓓ꎬ붻틗돉놾룟7ꎩ폫틸탐죚맘쾵쏜쟐 힡햬쫐뎡쳥쾵힡햬쫐뎡쫇틔싺ퟣ뻓쏱짺듦ꆢ쿭쫜뫍랢햹탨튪뗄힡햬ퟷ캪붻뮻뛔쿳뗄쫐뎡ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡쳥쾵훐냼몬뗄ퟓ쫐뎡훖샠뫜뛠ꎬ뿉틔듓힡햬볛횵ꆢ탐튵닣듎뫍퓋탐쇷돌뗈뷇뛈뷸탐뮮럖ꆣ1ꎩ내힡햬뗄훊솿뫍볛횵뮮럖뿉붫힡햬쫐뎡럖캪룟떵힡햬ꆢ뇰쫻쫐뎡ꎬ웕춨짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뫍뗍떵힡햬쫐뎡ꆣ2ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡룹뻝붻틗닣듎뮮럖럖캪힡햬퓶솿쫐뎡ꆢ힡햬듦솿쫐뎡ꎬ튲돆캪힡햬튻벶쫐뎡뫍뛾벶쫐뎡ꆣ힡햬튻벶쫐뎡쫇퓶솿힡햬뗄붻틗쫐뎡ꆣ쯼쫇좡뗃췁뗘쪹폃좨뗄뾪랢릫쮾뛔췁뗘뷸탐뾪랢ꆢ붨돉힡햬뫳붫힡햬랿컝뗄쯹폐좨뫍췁뗘쪹폃좨죃룸릺랿헟뗄뺭볃탐캪ퟜ뫍ꆣ쯼쫇튻훖ퟝ쿲쇷춨쫐뎡ꆣ힡햬뛾벶쫐뎡쫇힡햬듦솿뗄붻틗쫐뎡ꆣ쯼쫇횸힡햬랿컝뗄쯹폐좨뫍췁뗘쪹폃좨헟붫쯹좡뗃뗄힡햬랿컝뗄쯹폐좨뫍췁뗘쪹폃좨퓙죃룸웤쯻훷쳥뗄쫐뎡ꆣ헢쫇쯹폐헟횮볤뗄뫡쿲폐뎥죃쫐뎡ꆣ3ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡내붻뮻랽쪽뮮럖17
뿉럖캪힡햬싲싴쫐뎡ꆢퟢ쇞쫐뎡ꆢ뗖톺쫐뎡뫍뗤떱쫐뎡ꆣ힡햬싲싴쫐뎡쫇힡햬뗄랿컝쯹폐좨뫍쿠펦뗄췁뗘쪹폃좨폐뎥틆뗄쫐뎡ꎻ힡햬ퟢ쇞쫐뎡쫇퓚늻룄뇤랿컝쯹폐좨뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬ붫웤쪹폃좨폐뎥죃뗄쫐뎡ꎻ힡햬뗖톺쫐뎡뻍쫇뗖톺죋틔랿컝ퟷ캪뮹뿮놣횤컯ꎬ쿲뗖톺좨죋좡뗃듻뿮뗄쫐뎡ꎻ힡랿뗤떱쫐뎡쫇횸돶뗤죋돶뗤ퟔ벺쯹폐뗄힡랿룸뗤좨죋ꎬ믱뗃뻟폐듻뿮탔훊뗄뗤볛뗄뎡쯹틔벰뗤떱쮫랽쿠뮥맘쾵뗄ퟜ뫍ꆣ4ꎩ내힡햬뗄퓙짺닺뮷뷚뮮럖뿉틔럖캪힡랿폃뗘쫐뎡ꆢ힡랿붨짨쫐뎡ꆢ힡랿붻틗쫐뎡ꆢ힡랿훐뷩럾컱쫐뎡틔벰컯튵맜샭쫐뎡ꆣ힡랿폃뗘쫐뎡ꎬ쫇힡랿폃뗘뗄뾪랢뫍붻틗쫐뎡ꆣ힡햬붨짨쫐뎡ꎬ쫇횸폫힡랿짨볆ꆢ쪩릤ꆢ캬뮤폐맘뗄쫐뎡ꎬ힡햬붨짨쫐뎡뗄뺺헹탔뇈뷏돤럖ꆣ힡햬붻틗쫐뎡ꎬ춨맽폖뮮럖캪닺좨붻틗쫐뎡뫍ퟢ쇞쫐뎡ꆣ뷸탐힡랿닺좨싲싴뗄쫐뎡쫇닺좨쫐뎡ꎬ뛸뛔늻춬샠탍힡랿뷸탐ퟢ쇞뗄쫐뎡퓲쫇힡랿뗄ퟢ쇞쫐뎡ꆣ힡햬훐뷩쫐뎡쫇힡햬뗄톯ꆢ맀볛ꆢ뺭볍뗈쫐뎡ꆣ힡햬컯튵맜샭쫐뎡ꎬ횸힡랿벰뢽쫴짨쪩퓚쪹폃맽돌훐뗄죕뎣캬뮤ꆢ캬탞뫍맜샭릤ퟷꆣ5ꎩ내뇪뗄컯뮮럖듓뇪뗄컯짏럖ꎬ힡랿쫐뎡뿉틔럖캪췁뗘쪹폃좨쫐뎡ꎬ힡랿짌욷쫐뎡ꎬ힡랿뷰죚쫐뎡ꎬ힡랿샍컱쫐뎡ꎬ힡랿탅쾢쫐뎡뗈ꆣ듓힡햬쫐뎡쫇힡햬붻뮻뗄뎡쯹살샭뷢ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄잰솽샠뮮럖뗃떽쇋맺쓚췢톧쫵뷧뗄릫죏ꆣ 힡햬쫐뎡뗄퓋탐믺훆믺훆풭틢쫇횸믺웷뗄릹퓬뫍퓋풭샭ꆣ벴믺웷퓋맽돌훐뗄룷룶쇣볾늿볾횮볤쿠뮥솪쾵ꆢ뮥캪틲맻뗄솪뷡맘쾵벰퓋랽쪽ꆣ믺훆뗄훷튪쓚죝냼삨뷡릹뫍퓋풭샭솽늿럖ꎬ웤훐퓋풭샭쫇뗚튻탔뗄ꎬ쯼뻶뚨ퟅ뷡릹뗄퓋뚯ꎻ뛸뷡릹쫇놣횤퓋풭샭랢짺ퟷ폃뗄컯훊퓘쳥ꆣ힡랿쫐뎡뗄퓋탐믺훆뻍쫇횸릹돉힡랿쫐뎡뗄룷룶튪쯘횮볤쿠뮥솪쾵ꆢ뮥캪틲맻뗄솪뷡맘쾵벰퓋랽쪽ꆣ힡랿쫐뎡뗄퓋탐믺훆평힡랿쫐뎡붻틗훷쳥ꆢ뿍쳥뫍쫐뎡탅뫅ꎨ힡랿뗄볛룱ꆢ릩룸ꆢ탨쟳ꆢ뺺헹뗈ꎩ퓚힡햬쫐뎡퓋ퟷ맽돌훐쿠뮥ퟷ폃뛸탎돉ꎬ웤튻떩탎돉폖ퟷ폃폚힡랿쫐뎡퓋탐맽돌ꎬ풼쫸ퟅ힡햬쫐뎡뗄ힴ뿶뫍랢햹ꆣ퓚힡랿쫐뎡훐ꎬ볛룱쫇뫋탄ꎬ볛룱뗄룟뗍횱뷓펰쿬힡랿뾪랢짌뗄뺭볃샻틦ꎬ틽웰쫐뎡뺺헹ꎬ쫐뎡뺺헹떼훂뾪랢짌짺닺튪쯘뗄쇷뚯ꎬ짺닺튪쯘뗄쇷뷸쇷돶훘탂룄뇤[28]힡랿쫐뎡짏뗄릩쟳맘쾵ꆣ힡랿쫐뎡릩쟳뗄뚯첬뇤뮯펰쿬ퟅ힡랿볛룱ꎻ뛸볛룱뗄뇤뮯폖펰쿬ퟅ쫐뎡릩쟳ꆣ힡랿쫐뎡퓋탐믺훆뻍쫇춨맽힡랿볛룱ꆢ릩쟳ꆢ뺺헹뗈쫐18
뎡튪쯘뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃ꎬퟔ뚯뗷뷚뾪랢짌뗄짺닺뺭펪믮뚯뫍쿻럑헟탐캪ꎬ쪵쿖쫐뎡짏뗄릩룸폫탨쟳욽뫢ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡뗄퓋탐믺훆튻냣냼삨릩쟳믺훆ꆢ뺺헹믺훆ꆢ샻틦럧쿕믺훆ꆣ돽듋횮췢ꎬ뮹폐쮰쫕믺훆ꎬ횸힡햬쫐뎡뗄뿎쮰뛔쿳ꎬ붻틗쫽솿폫헷쮰싊횮볤뗄쿠뮥맘쾵ꆣ춨맽쮰쫕살뗷뷚쫐뎡퓋탐뗄쯙뛈ꆣ탅듻샻싊믺훆ꎬ쫇횸탅듻뷰뗄릩룸뫍탨쟳춬샻싊횮볤뗄폐믺솪쾵믺훆ꆣ샻싊뇤뚯쓜뗷뷚믵뇒뷰뗄릩쟳ꎬ뷸뛸펰쿬떽짺닺돉놾뫍볛룱ꎬ퓋폃탅듻샻싊믺훆뿉틔듙쪹탅듻뷰뫏샭쇷뚯ꎬ췆뚯힡햬쫐뎡뗄붡뾵랢햹ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡짏룷훖믺훆늻쫇맂솢뗄ꎬ뛸쫇쿠뮥솪쾵ꎬ쿠뮥ퟷ폃뫍쿠뮥훆풼뗄ꎬ웤훐릩쟳믺훆폖쫇룷훖쫐뎡퓋탐믺훆뗄뫋탄ꎬ뛸쿠뮥솪쾵뫍쿠뮥ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻뻍믡탎돉튻룶헻쳥뗄힡랿쫐뎡퓋탐믺훆ꎬퟷ폃폚힡햬쫐뎡뗄헻룶퓋ퟷ맽돌ꆣ 돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡퓚컒맺쿖탐뗄힡랿릩룸쳥쾵훐ꎬ탂퓶힡랿릩룸뿉쾸럖캪쫐뎡볛짌욷힡햬ꆢ뺭볃[29]쫊폃힡햬뫍솮ퟢ힡햬죽샠ꎬ쫐뎡볛짌욷힡햬쫇평뾪랢짌춶붨짨ꆢ췪좫내쫐뎡뺭볃맦싉퓋ퟷ뗄짌욷힡햬ꎬ냼삨웕춨짌욷힡햬ꆢ룟떵릫풢뫍뇰쫻뗈ꆣ짌욷힡햬뗄붨퓬뇪ힼꎬ훷튪틀뻝쫐뎡짏훐룟쫕죫볒춥뗄힡랿탨쟳ힴ뿶뫍횧뢶쓜솦좷뚨ꎻ웤붨퓬쫽솿뫍붻틗볛룱훷튪평쫐뎡릩쟳맘쾵뗷뷚ꎻ웤쿺쫛뛔쿳쎻폐퇏룱뗄쿞훆ꎬ릺싲헟볈뿉틔ퟔ폃ꎬ튲뿉틔ퟷ캪뛌웚믲뎤웚춶ꆣ웕춨짌욷힡햬쫇캪쇋싺ퟣ듳훚뗄힡랿탨쟳ꎬ내쫐뎡맦싉뷸탐뾪랢ꆢ뺭펪뫍쪹폃쿻럑뗄힡햬ꆣ웕춨짌욷힡햬뗄붨짨췪좫평뾪랢짌믲웤쯻뺭볃훷쳥ퟩ횯쪵쪩ꎬퟱ톭쫐뎡뺭볃맦싉쫇웤퓋탐쒣쪽뗄훷튪쳘헷ꎬ쯼뗄훷튪퓋탐맽돌냼삨ꎺ뛔캴살힡햬쫐뎡뷸탐럖컶ꎬ뛔쒿뇪쫐뎡탨쟳쳘헷럖컶ꎬ릦쓜ꆢ볛룱뚨캻ꎻ뷸탐힡햬춶뻶닟ꎬ톡퓱뻟폐컼틽솦뗄힡햬붨짨폃뗘ꎬ좡뗃헾뢮볆뮮ꆢ맦뮮ꆢ붨짨ꆢ췁뗘샻폃뗈랽쏦뗄탭뿉ꎬ뷸탐뇘튪뗄죚낲업ꎻ췆쿺힡햬ꎻ캪힡햬쳡릩짧믡뮯ꆢ쫐뎡뮯뗄컯튵맜샭럾컱ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡뗄훷쳥튻냣ퟔ훷뻶닟ꆢퟔ뢺펯뿷ꆢퟔ떣럧쿕ꆣ 짌욷힡햬폫뺭볃쫊폃랿뗄닮틬뺭볃쫊폃랿쫇평헾뢮춳튻ퟩ횯붨짨ꆢ쏦쿲훐뗍쫕죫볒춥뗄캢샻짌욷힡랿ꆣ웤붨퓬뇪ힼ볈튪싺ퟣ쫊폃뗄튪쟳ꎬ폖튪싺ퟣ짧믡풴릫욽ꆢ뫏샭샻폃뗄풭퓲ꎻ붨퓬뗄쫽솿볈튪뾼싇훐뗍쫕죫볒춥뗄쫽솿ꎬ뮹튪뾼싇헾뢮퓚췁뗘릩룸ꆢ풴춶죫랽쏦뗄쓜솦ꎻ웤볛룱쮮욽늻쫇평쫐뎡쯹뻶뚨ꎬ뛸쫇폫훐뗍쫕죫볒춥뗄횧뢶쓜솦믲뺭볃ힴ뿶쿠쫊19
펦ꎻ캪럀횹풴뗄샋럑ꎬ쿺쫛뛔쿳쫜헾뢮퇏룱쿞뚨ꆣ뺭볃쫊폃힡햬듸폐럇쫐뎡뮯믲헾뢮뢣샻늹쳹뗄돉럖ꎬ뷩폚췪좫쫐뎡뮯뗄쫐뎡볛짌욷힡햬뫍럇쫐뎡뮯뗄솮ퟢ힡햬횮볤ꎬ쳥쿖쇋힡햬쿻럑쳝벶랢햹맦싉뗄튪쟳ꆣ뺭볃쫊폃힡햬뗄퓋ퟷ쒣쪽쫇헾뢮틔쿺뚨닺ꎬ틔뮮늦랽쪽뗃떽힡햬폃뗘ꎬ춨맽쮰럑복쏢ꆢ뿘훆붨짨뇪ힼ뗈쫖뛎뿘훆힡햬붨퓬돉놾ꎻ붨돉뫳ꎬ틔헾뢮짳뚨뗄캢샻볛룱ꎬ헫뛔훐뗍쫕죫볒춥쿺쫛ꎬ쪵탐릺싲맽돌훐뗄짪쟫ꆢ짳엺뫍뗇볇놸낸훆뛈ꆣ 짌욷힡햬폫솮ퟢ힡햬닮틬솮ퟢ힡햬쫇솮볛뗄돶ퟢ힡햬ꎬ쯼쫇평헾뢮쳡릩뗄ꆢ쏦쿲돇쫐ퟮ뗍쫕죫볒춥뗄짧믡놣헏탔힡햬ꆣ웤뇪ힼ틔싺ퟣ볒춥믹놾뻓힡탨쟳캪풭퓲ꎻ붨퓬뗄쫽솿룹뻝돇쫐ퟮ뗍쫕죫볒춥뗄쫽솿뛸뚨ꎬ춨뎣릩룸쫽솿쫊떱짙폚탨쟳쫽솿ꎻퟢ뷰뇪ힼ풶뗍폚쫐뎡ퟢ뷰ꎬ쟒쫜헾뢮뗄퇏룱뿘훆ꎻ솮ퟢ힡햬뷻횹ퟢꆢ늻퓊탭뷸죫뛾쫖랿쫐뎡ꆣ 웕춨짌욷힡햬쫐뎡폫룟떵힡햬뗄닮틬웕춨짌욷힡햬쫐뎡폫룟떵힡햬ꎨ릫풢뫍뇰쫻ꎩ쫐뎡튲듦퓚뷏듳뗄닮틬ꆣ쫗쿈ꎬ쯻쏇쏦쿲뗄쿻럑훷쳥늻춬ꎬ웕춨짌욷힡햬훷튪쏦쿲듳훚좺쳥ꎬ뛸룟떵힡햬ꎨ릫풢뫍뇰쫻ꎩ쫐뎡훷튪쏦쿲짧믡훐뗄룟쫕죫죋좺ꆣ웤듎ꎬ뛔폚샠쯆쟸캻뗄짌욷힡햬ꎬ룟떵힡햬펦떱뇈웕춨짌욷힡햬펵폐룼뫃뗄뮷뺳뫍욷훊ꎬ쇭췢뮹탨튪룼돶즫뗄펪쿺퓋ퟷꆣ뻟쳥뇭쿖퓚틔쿂벸룶랽쏦ꎺ붨훾쏜뛈뫏샭ꎨ뇰쫻폃뗘뗄죝믽싊뷏뗍ꎩꎬ짨볆룼힢훘뮷뺳쏀맛ꎨ죧뷏룟뗄싌뮯싊ꆢ폅쏀쓾뺲뗄뮷뺳뫍쮽쏜탔뷏잿뗄뮧탍ꎩꆢힰ탞뫍룷튵릤돌뗄짨놸춶뇈훘룟ꆢ욷훊뫃ꎬ돤풣뗄엤쳗짨쪩ꎨ죧뷏뛠뗄뎵캻쫽솿ꆢ택쿐뗄뎡뗘뫍믡쯹ꎩꎬ쇭췢뮹폐룼폅훊뗄컯튵맜샭뗈럾컱ꆣ뗚죽ꎬ룟떵힡햬뗄떥쳥붨훾짨볆뗄뇪ힼ쎻폐짨쿞ꎬ뛸웕춨짌욷힡햬뗄닣룟ꆢ폃[30]닄뗈랽쏦폐튻뚨뗄닎뾼횸뇪ꆣ뗚쯄ꎬ룟떵힡햬퓚돇쫐힡햬뗄릩룸ퟜ솿훐뗄뇈훘뷏킡ꆣ뗚컥ꎬ힡햬럾컱뗄뇪ힼ뫍쫕럑늻춬ꆣ닎헕ꆶ웕춨힡햬킡쟸컯튵맜샭럾컱뗈벶뇪[31]ힼꆷꎬ웕춨짌욷힡랿뗄컯튵맜샭쫕럑폫뺭볃쫊폃힡랿ꆢ랿룄랿ꆢ벯붨랿ꆢ솮ퟢ힡랿뗈힡햬킡쟸컯튵럾컱뗄쫔탐뇪ힼ쿠춬ꎬ탨평헾뢮쿠맘늿쏅짳엺ꎻ룟떵짌욷힡햬뗄컯튵럾컱쫕럑쪵탐쫐뎡뗷뷚볛ꆣ뗚쇹ꎬ룟떵힡햬뗄볛룱룟ꎬ뎬돶듳훚쿻럑헟뗄돐쫜쓜솦ꆣ20
짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯룅쓮뗄뷧뚨퓚뛔늻춬랿뗘닺쫐뎡늨뚯룅쓮뷸탐움쫶폫럖컶뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ폐뇘튪뷧뚨쟥돾짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄룅쓮ꆣퟜ쳥뛸퇔ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쫇짌욷힡햬쫐뎡볛솿쮮욽웰럼늨뚯ꆢ톭뮷뗄뺭볃쿖쿳ꆣ튻랽쏦ꎬ뻟폐늻춬뇭쿖쳘헷뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꎬퟜ쫇듦퓚쏷쿔뗄쿠쯆횮뒦ꎬ헢훖폐맦싉뗄짏쿂늨뚯뇣릹돉짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꎬ쯼랴펳짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쿠쯆탔뫍맦싉탔ꎬ벴퓚힡햬뺭볃퓋탐맽돌훐ꎬ짌욷힡햬뺭볃쯹돊쿖돶살뗄삩헅폫쫕쯵솽듳뷗뛎붻쳦돶쿖ꎬ뢴쯕튻랱죙튻쮥췋튻쿴쳵쯄룶뮷뷚톭뮷췹뢴늨뚯ꆣ듓뺭볃퓶뎤뷇뛈살맛달ꎬ힡햬뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쟷쫆쟺쿟폫쪵볊퓶뎤쟺쿟횮볤ퟜ믡듦퓚튻뚨뗄닮뻠ꎬ벴힡햬뺭볃쪵볊퓶뎤쟺쿟ퟜ쫇믲뛠믲짙뗘캧죆ퟅ힡햬뺭볃퓶뎤쟷쫆쟺쿟퓋뚯ꆣ힡햬뺭볃쪵볊퓶뎤쟺쿟폫쟷쫆퓶뎤쟺쿟뗄욫샫쿖쿳ꎬ쪵볊짏뻍쫇힡햬뺭볃퓶뎤맽돌훐뗄늨뚯쿖쿳ꎬ솽쳵쟺쿟퓲랴펳쇋힡햬뺭볃퓶뎤폫늨뚯뗄맘쾵ꆣ듓헢룶틢틥짏뛸퇔ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뿉틔돆캪힡햬뺭볃늨뚯ꎻ쇭ꆪ랽쏦ꎬ뺡맜룷뗘쟸룷뷗뛎짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯퓚늨뚯럹뛈ꆢ늨뚯욵싊ꆢ돖탸쪱볤뗈랽쏦늿듦퓚쏷쿔쟸뇰ꎬ떫쫇뻍웤퓚솬탸퓋탐맽돌훐늨럥폫늨마쿠볌돊쿖뗄놾훊쳘헷뛸퇔ꎬ룷뻟쳘즫뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯퓲퓚놾훊짏폖쫇쿠춬뗄ꎬ벴뚼뇭쿖돶쿠쯆뗄늨뚯탔헇실ꆢ훘뢴탔뗈돖뗣ꎬ헽쫇퓚헢룶틢틥짏쮵짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뻍쫇훘뢴돶쿖뗄삩헅폫쫕쯵뗄늨뚯ꆣ 짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쫇뺭볃늨뚯퓚힡햬쇬폲쓚뗄뇭쿖탎첬짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ퟷ캪뫪맛뺭볃늨뚯뗄훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ쫇뺭볃늨뚯퓚힡햬쇬폲쓚뗄뇭쿖탎첬ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ쯼튲쫇힡햬뺭볃늨뚯뗄훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ쫇힡햬뺭볃늨뚯뗄뇭쿖탎첬ꆣ평듋돶랢ꎬ튻랽쏦ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯놾훊짏쫴폚뺭볃늨뚯ꎬ쫇힡햬쇬폲쓚뗄뺭볃늨뚯ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쫇뺭볃늨뚯퓚힡햬뺭볃퓋탐맽돌쯹뇭쿖돶살뗄퓋뚯탎첬ꆣ1ꎩ죧맻쮵뺭볃늨뚯놾훊짏쫇횸뫪맛뺭볃삩헅폫쫕쯵붻쳦돶쿖ꆢ늨럥폫늨마늻뛏톭뮷ꆢ뢴쯕폫쮥췋췹략퓋탐뗄ힴ첬ꎬ랴펳쇋뫪맛뺭볃퓚뚯첬퓶뎤맽돌훐돊쿖돶폐맦싉뗄웰럼늨뚯ꆢ톭뮷췹뢴뗄퓋탐쳘헷ꆣ쓇쎴듓뺭볃늨뚯뷇뛈살뾴ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯폫뫪맛뺭볃늨뚯쿠쯆ꎬ튲쫇횸힡햬튵짏짽폫쿂붵톭뮷붻쳦ꆢ쿠뛔폐맦싉뗄짏쿂늨뚯ꎬ돊쿖캪듳훂폐맦싉뗄늨뚯탔퓋뚯ꆣ2ꎩ듓힡햬튵뷇뛈럖컶ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쫇힡햬뺭볃퓋탐맽돌훐뗄늨뚯,쫇힡햬뺭볃쮮욽늨뚯탔웰럼뗄랴펳ꆣ21
듓쏀맺좫맺뺭볃퇐뺿뻖(NBER)퇐뺿뺭볃늨뚯쯹틀뻝뗄뚨틥살뾴ꎬ쫐뎡늨뚯쪵볊쫇뺭볃늨뚯뗄튻훖탎쪽ꆣ춬퇹ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯튲늻샽췢ꎬ튲쫇힡햬뺭볃퓋탐맽돌훐뗄늨뚯탎첬ꎬ뻟폐힡햬뺭볃늨뚯맽돌훐돊쿖돶뗄삩헅폫쫕쯵ꆢ믲헟뢴쯕튻랱죙튻쮥췋튻쿴쳵뗈쳘헷ꆣ3ꎩ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯랴펳쇋힡햬뺭볃쮮욽뗄늨뚯톭뮷ꆢ웰럼늨뚯뗄쿖쿳ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ퓚힡햬뺭볃퓋탐맽돌훐ꎬ룷훖횸뇪쯹랴펳뗄힡햬뺭볃쮮욽뗄톭뮷늨뚯ꎬ릹돉쇋힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쿖쿳ꆣ떫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯늢늻쫇힡햬뺭볃퓋탐맽돌놾짭ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쿔좻늻뗈폚믲헟늻펦떱냼삨힡햬짺쏼늨뚯ꆢ힡햬뺭볃퓋탐늨뚯뗈룅쓮ꆣ 짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯폫힡햬튵늨뚯짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쫇힡햬쇬폲쓚뗄늨뚯ꎬ쯼폫힡햬튵늨뚯횱뷓쿠맘ꆣ쯹캽힡햬튵쫇횸듓쫂힡햬벰웤폃뗘뾪랢ꆢ뺭펪ꆢ맜샭뫍럾컱뗈뺭볃쪵쳥쯹ퟩ돉뗄닺튵늿쏅ꎬ틲듋ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯튲뻍쫇퓚짌욷힡햬뾪랢(힡햬폃뗘뾪랢폫랿컝뾪랢)ꆢ짌욷힡햬뺭펪(냼삨힡햬폃뗘쪹폃좨돶죃ꆢ죃ꆢ랿컝뗖톺ꆢ붻틗뗈뗘닺뺭펪뫍랿닺뺭펪믮뚯)ꆢ짌욷힡햬맜샭(훷튪쫇짌욷힡햬쿻럑맽돌훐뗄컯튵맜샭틔벰헾뢮뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡믮뚯뗄맜샭)ꆢ짌욷힡햬럾컱(훷튪쫇힡햬맀볛ꆢ닢솿ꆢ뺭볍뗈훐뷩럾컱뫍죚ꆢ놣쿕뗈뷰죚럾컱)맽돌훐돊쿖돶뗄늨뚯쿖쿳ꆣ늻맽탨튪횸돶뗄쫇ꎬ힡햬튵늨뚯폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쫇볈폐쟸뇰폖폐솪쾵뗄솽룶룅쓮ꆣ듓ퟜ쳥뾴ꎬ힡햬튵늨뚯틔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯캪믹놾탎쪽ꎻ떫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯늢늻뇘좻듺뇭힡햬튵좫늿뗄늨뚯쳘헷ꎬ돽쇋짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯췢ꎬ뮹듦퓚웤쯻늨뚯탎첬죧뎤웚쟷쫆ꆢ벾뷚늨뚯ꆢ쯦믺늨뚯뗈ꎬ틲뛸힡햬튵늨뚯늢늻튻뚨뚼뇭쿖캪짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꆣ튻냣살쮵ꎬ뺭볃늨뚯쫇뺭볃퓶뎤맽돌뗄훘튪쿖쿳ꎬ뿉틔폃튻ퟩ평쪱볤탲쇐ퟩ돉뗄뺭볃뇤솿살뇭쪾ꎬ폃틔랴펳틲뛠훖틲쯘랢햹뇤뮯ꆢ릲춬ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꆣ듓춳볆톧틢틥짏뾴ꎬ틲펰쿬틲쯘뗄늻춬ퟷ폃ꎬ죎튻뺭볃쿖쿳뗄ퟜ늨뚯뿉틔럖뷢캪뎤웚쟷쫆ꆢ벾뷚늨뚯ꆢ뺰웸늨뚯(믲톭뮷늨뚯)뫍늻맦퓲늨뚯(믲닐닮)쯄샠ꆣ춬퇹짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯튲뿉틔쾸럖캪헢쯄샠럖솿뗄릹돉ꎬ벴ꎺ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯=f(뎤웚쟷쫆ꆢ벾뷚늨뚯ꆢ뺰웸늨뚯ꆢ늻맦퓲늨뚯)퓚짏쪽훐ꎺ뎤웚쟷쫆횸뿍맛쿖쿳내튻뚨뗄랽쿲ꎬ틔ퟔ뚯믲놻뚯랽쪽늻뛏뷸탐뗄뎤쪱볤뇤뚯랽쿲ꎬ잰웚믮뚯ힴ뿶펰쿬뫳웚뗄닺튵탋쮥ퟟ쿲ꆣ튻냣살쮵ꎬ뎤웚쟷쫆뛔늨뚯뗄펰쿬뷏캪컈뚨쟒뷏틗헆컕ꆣ뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뛸퇔ꎬ헢훖뎤웚쟷쫆뇭쿖캪짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뎤웚쿲짏ꆢ돖탸랢햹뗄퓋탐쟷쫆ꆣ벾뷚늨뚯쫇퓚ퟔ좻틲쯘ퟷ폃쿂쯦벾뷚룼쳦뛸돶쿖뗄맦싉탔냚뚯ꆣ퓚ퟔ좻벾뷚22
펰쿬쿂ꎬ짌욷힡햬뗄춶ꆢ짺닺ꆢ붻틗뗈믡쫜떽튻뚨펰쿬ꎬ쳘뇰쫇벾뷚뇤뚯뻹믡펰쿬랿컝짺닺뫍췁뗘뾪랢ꎬ듓뛸쪹짌욷힡햬쫐뎡릩쟳닺짺벾뷚탔늨뚯ꆣ퓚죋캪벾뷚펰쿬쿂ꎬ틲뺭볃훆뛈ꆢ쿻럑쾰맟ꆢ탐헾폫램싉풼쫸ꎬ짌욷힡햬뺭볃퓋탐튲믡쫜떽튻뚨펰쿬ꆣ죧믵뇒뗄벾뷚탔늨뚯떼훂짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄쿠펦뇤뚯ꆣ늻맽듓ퟜ쳥짏럖컶ꎬ평폚췪돉튻룶힡햬닺튵뗄톭뮷튪뇈웤쯻닺튵룼뎤ꎬ틲뛸벾뷚탔늨뚯뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬튪킡뗃뛠ꎬ춬쪱튲뇈뷏죝틗냑컕ꆣ뺰웸늨뚯폖돆캪톭뮷늨뚯ꎬ쫇퓚ퟜ늨뚯훐뿛돽랽쿲쏷좷뗄뎤웚쟷쫆ꆢ맦싉탔뷏잿뗄벾뷚늨뚯뫍늻맦퓲뗄쯦믺늨뚯뫳뗄폠뛮ꎬ뇭쿖캪늨뚯볤룴ꆢ뎤뛈벰펰쿬늢늻췪좫쿠춬ꎬ떫늨뚯쒣쪽믹놾쿠쯆뗄쳘뗣ꎬ벴틔삩헅뫍쫕쯵붻쳦퓋탐랽쪽릹돉뗄톭뮷췹뢴ꆢ웰럼늨뚯ꆣ늻맦퓲늨뚯쫇틲룷훖틢췢쫂볾펰쿬뛸닺짺뗄쯦믺늨뚯ꎬ폫잰죽훖틲쯘뛔늨뚯뗄헽뎣펰쿬늻춬ꎬ늻맦퓲늨뚯컞램볆쯣뫍풤닢ꎬ튲쓑틔쿻돽믲뾹뻜웤펰쿬ꎬ폐뿉쓜떼훂짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뻧쇒헱뚯ꆢ랴뎣퓋탐ꎬ믲헟닺짺뷡릹탔뇤뮯ꆣ퓚짏쫶짌욷힡햬쫐뎡벸훖늻춬뗄늨뚯탎첬훐ꎬ횻폐돊쿖돶늨뚯톭뮷쳘뗣뗄늨뚯ꎬ닅뿉돆캪퇏룱틢틥뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꎬ쯼냼몬죽룶랽쏦뗄쓚죝ꎺ1ꎩ뎤뛈늻춬ꆢ헱럹늻뗈뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꎬ뻟폐쿠쯆뗄늨뚯쒣쪽ꎬ벴뚼뇭쿖캪삩헅폫쫕쯵붻쳦톭뮷ꆢ쮥췋튻쿴쳵튻뢴쯕튻랱죙췹살퓋탐뗄늨뚯탎첬ꎬ믲헟쮵짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뻟폐쿠춬뗄햹뾪맽돌ꎬ평듋탎돉짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄맦싉탔ꆣ2ꎩ뻟폐쿠쯆늨뚯쒣쪽뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꎬ쯤좻퓚틽랢늨뚯뗄뻟쳥풭틲뫍늨뚯슷뺶짏듦퓚룷늻쿠춬뗄뇭쿖탎쪽ꎬ떫퓚놾훊짏죔좻뻟폐쿠쯆뗄늨뚯뒫떼믺훆ꎬ듳쳥짏럖컶뚼뿉틔듓췢늿돥믷폫쓚늿뒫떼솽룶랽쏦뷸탐럖컶ꆣ3ꎩ뻟폐쿠쯆늨뚯믺훆뫍햹뾪맽돌뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꎬ퓚늨뚯뗄돖탸쪱볤ꆢ헱뚯욵싊ꆢ늨뚯럹뛈뗈랽쏦듦퓚쏷쿔뗄닮틬ꎬ듓뛸탎돉룷뻟쳘즫ꆢ잧닮췲뇰뗄늨뚯탎첬ꎬ평듋릹돉짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쳘쫢탔ꆣ횻폐듓헢죽룶랽쏦ퟛ뫏웰살럖컶ꎬ닅뿉쓜돆뗃짏쫇췪헻틢틥짏뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꆣ 돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뿍맛탔웕춨짌욷힡햬뗄쓚퓚쫴탔뫍웤쫐뎡뗄췢퓚돥믷뻶뚨쇋웕춨짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뿍맛탔ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뗄샺쪷튲듓쇭튻뷇뛈쮵쏷쇋힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뿍맛듦퓚ꆣ23
힡햬쫐뎡뛌웚릩룸좱랦떯탔힡햬캻훃뗄만뚨탔뫍닮틬탔뻶뚨쇋힡햬쫐뎡릩룸쪼훕폫튻뚨뗄뗘뛎쟸캻뷴쏜쿠솬ꎬ튻ퟚ힡햬뿉쓜폫쇭튻ퟚ힡햬쪮럖쿠쯆ꎬ짵훁뻟폐뺭볃짏뗄뿉쳦듺탔ꆢ떫쿠쯆늢늻틢캶ퟅ쿠춬ꎬ쎿튻ퟚ힡햬퓚웤캻훃ꆢ맦쒣ꆢ탎ힴ뗈랽쏦쿔쪾돶돌뛈늻뗈뗄닮뇰ꆣ힡햬뗄만뚨탔ꆢ닮틬탔뫍뎤뾪랢훜웚탔떼훂짌욷힡햬뗄쫐뎡릩룸퓚뛌웚쓚좱랦떯탔ꎬ뻶뚨쇋짌욷힡햬늨뚯뗄쓚퓚탔ꆣ 힡햬쫐뎡뛌웚탨쟳뻟폐튻뚨뗄떯탔힡햬킧폃뗄뛠닣듎탔떼훂힡햬쫐뎡탨쟳뻟폐튻뚨뗄떯탔ꆣ힡햬퓚웤킧폃짏ꎬ춬쪱뻟놸짺듦쇏ꆢ쿭쫜쇏뫍랢햹쇏죽룶늻춬닣듎뗄탔훊ꆣ힡햬ퟷ캪짺듦쇏ꎬ룸죋틔낲짭횮뒦ꎻ쯦ퟅ짧믡뗄랢햹ꎬ힡햬쪹폃볛횵훰붥럡뢻ꎬ쓜룸죋틔컯훊뫍뺫짱짏뗄쿭쫜ꎻ춬쪱ꎬ힡햬뮹쫇죋쏇폩샖ꆢ톧쾰뫍짧붻뗄뎡쯹ꎬ캪룶죋뗄랢햹쳡릩쇋솼뫃뗄뮷뺳ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ힡햬뮹뿉틔ퟷ캪튻훖춶욷ꎬ싺ퟣ춶헟뗄탨쟳ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚뛌웚쓚ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뻟폐뷏듳뗄탨쟳떯탔ꎬ뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯닺짺뷏듳뗄펰쿬ꆣ 쫐뎡탅쾢늻뛔돆힡햬쫐뎡듦퓚탅쾢늻뛔돆쿖쿳ꎬ틲캪힡햬쫇뷏캪쳘쫢뗄듳ퟚ짌욷ꎬ듓뇭쏦짏룹놾뾴늻돶살웤욷훊폅쇓ힴ뿶ꆣ뛔폚헢샠짌욷뗄헦헽훊솿ꆢ듓춶죫떽닺돶뗄맽돌ꎬ췹췹쿺쫛짌늻죧춶짌쟥돾ꎬ춶짌늻죧뾪랢짌쟥돾ꎬ뛸뾪랢짌폖늻죧붨퓬짌쟥돾ꆣ쿺쫛짌캪쇋삩듳쿺쫛ꎬ뎣뎣믡냑늢늻헦쪵뗄탅쾢뒫뗝룸쿻럑헟ꎬ믲헟잿뗷웤폅쫆믲헟틾싷웤좱쿝ꎬ쿻럑헟횻쓜춨맽쿺쫛짌쳡릩뗄탅쾢ꎨ샽죧맣룦탻뒫뗈ꎩ살뻶뚨웤릺싲탐캪ꎬ튻떩랢쿖탻뒫폫쫂쪵늻럻ꎬ뻍뎣뎣떼훂뻀럗ꆣ퓚헾뢮폫힡햬뾪랢웳튵횮볤ꆢ웳튵폫쿻럑헟횮볤ꆢ믲헟헾뢮폫쿻럑헟횮볤뗈뚼늻춬돌뛈뗘듦퓚ퟅ탅쾢늻뛔돆컊쳢ꆣ탅쾢늻뛔돆뇘뚨떼훂탅쾢햼폐랽캪쒲좡ퟔ짭룼듳뗄샻틦쪹쇭튻랽뗄샻틦쫜떽쯰몦ꎬ떼훂힡햬탅쾢햼폐헟캪웤샻틦뛸틽떼쿻럑헟ꎬ펰쿬붻틗뗄릫헽탔ꎬ퓬돉풴뗄샋럑ꎬ틽랢힡햬럇뎣첬늨뚯ꆣ 뛠틲쯘늨뚯펰쿬랿뗘닺폫힡햬튵쫇짧믡짺닺뫍퓙짺닺틔벰뿆톧ꆢ컄뮯ꆢ뷌폽ꆢ컀짺뗈룷훖짧믡뺭볃믮뚯뗄믹뒡ꆢ퓘쳥뫍뿕볤쳵볾ꎬ뒦폚맺쏱뺭볃랢햹뗄믹뒡뗘캻ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ랿뗘닺폫힡햬튵춬웤쯻닺튵쿠뇈ꎬ퓚맺쏱뺭볃훐폖뻟폐룟뛈뗄ퟛ뫏탔뫍맘솪탔ꎬ웤24
랢햹쓜듸뚯쿠맘닺튵틔룼룟뗄쯙뛈랢햹ꆣ힡햬튵뗄맘솪탔쳥쿖퓚쯼폫훚뛠뗄닺튵늿쏅쿠솪쾵랽쏦ꎬ쯼늻뷶짦벰붨닄릤튵ꆢ붨훾짨놸릤튵ꆢ붨훾믺킵릤튵뫍튱뷰ꆢ뮯릤ꆢ즭릤ꆢ믺킵ꆢ틇뇭뗈짺닺쇏짺닺늿쏅ꎬ뮹짦벰떽볒폃뗧웷ꆢ볒뻟뗈쏱폃릤튵틔벰싃폎ꆢ풰쇖ꆢ퓋쫤튵ꆢ짌튵ꆢ웤쯻럾컱튵뗈ꆣ힡햬튵뗄펰쿬틲쯘엓퓓ꎬ쫜뫪맛뺭볃랢햹ꆢ죋뿚ꆢ헾훎ꆢ짧믡컄뮯ꆢ헾뢮헾닟ꆢ램싉훆뛈뗈뛠훖틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ맺쓚췢힡햬튵랢햹뗄샺쪷횤쏷ꎬ평폚힡햬쫐뎡쫜뫪맛뺭볃랢햹ꆢ죋뿚ꆢ춶ꆢ헾닟ꆢ램싉훆뛈ꆢ짧믡컄뮯ꆢ탄샭뗈뛠훖틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꎬ퓚랢햹맽돌훐ꎬ믡뇭쿖돶훜웚탔늨뚯뗄뇤뮯ꎬ돶쿖힡햬튵랢햹뗄룟럥웚뫍뗍마웚ꎬ벴힡햬튵랢햹뗄늨뚯맦싉ꆣ쯹캽힡햬튵랢햹뗄늨뚯탔ꎬ쫇횸힡햬튵퓚랢햹맽돌훐뗄삩햹뫍쫕쯵뗄붻쳦톭뮷ꎬ쯼튻랽쏦춬뫪맛뺭볃ퟜ뗄랢햹첬쫆쏜쟐쿠맘ꎬ춬쪱폖춬탐튵뺭볃폫뫪맛뺭볃뗄킭뗷돌뛈뷴쏜솪쾵ꆣ틲듋ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯믡펰쿬웤쯻탐튵뗄랢햹ꎬ춬쪱ꎬ웤쯻쿠맘탐튵뗄늨뚯뫍힡햬쫐뎡뗄펰쿬틲쯘튲믡떼훂힡햬쫐뎡뗄럇뎣첬늨뚯ꆣ 힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뿍맛뇭쿖랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄랢햹쪷튲쫇튻늿랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄늨뚯쪷ꎬ뷼쓪살ꎬ퓚맺볒삩듳쓚탨폫맄샸힡랿쿻럑헾닟뗄돖탸췆뚯쿂ꎬ컒맺탭뛠돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡놣돖쇋돖탸ꆢ붡뾵ꆢ컈뚨랢햹뗄첬쫆ꆣ좻뛸ꎬퟛ맛웤랢햹샺돌ꎬ쎿룶돇쫐뗄힡햬쫐뎡랢햹늻쫇튻룶욽뺲컞늨뗄랢햹ힴ첬ꎬ뛸쫇퓚늨뚯훐늻뛏랢햹ꆣ틔쿂틔퇹뗣돇쫐ힴ뿶쪵횤럖컶돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뿍맛탔ꆣ1ꎩ랿뗘닺뾪랢춶뗄늨뚯2000쓪틔살ꎬ랿뗘닺뾪랢춶퓚늨뚯훐늻뛏퓶뎤ꆣ2003쓪퇹뗣돇쫐랿뗘닺뾪랢ퟜ춶뛮캪틚풪ꎬ춬뇈퓶뎤%ꆣ웤훐힡햬춶틚풪ꎬ춬뇈퓶뎤%ꎬ햼랿뗘닺뾪랢ퟜ춶뗄%ꆣ2004쓪퇹뗣돇쫐랿뗘닺뾪랢ퟜ춶뛮캪틚풪ꎬ웤훐힡햬뾪랢춶틚풪ꆣ2005쓪퇹뗣돇쫐랿뗘닺뾪랢ퟜ춶뛮캪298틚풪ꎬ웤훐힡햬뾪랢춶틚풪ꎬ돇쫐힡햬뾪랢춶햼랿뗘닺뾪랢ퟜ춶뛮73ꎥꆣ죧뇭2-1ꎬ춼2-1쯹쪾ꆣ2ꎩ짌욷랿쿺쫛쫐뎡뗄늨뚯퇹뗣돇쫐랿뗘닺붻틗솿퓚늨뚯훐퓶럹뷏듳ꆣ2003쓪ꎬ짌욷랿쿺쫛쏦믽췲욽랽쏗ꎬ춬뇈퓶뎤%ꎻ웤훐ꎬ힡햬췲욽랽쏗,춬뇈퓶뎤%ꎬ햼ퟜ쏦믽뗄%ꆣ2004쓪ꎬ짌욷랿쿺쫛쏦믽췲욽랽쏗ꎬ웤훐ꎬ힡햬췲25
욽랽쏗ꎬ햼ퟜ쏦믽뗄%ꎬ2005쓪ꎬ짌욷랿쿺쫛쏦믽췲욽랽쏗ꎬ웤훐ꎬ힡햬췲욽랽쏗ꎬ햼ퟜ쏦믽뗄%ꎬ죧뇭2-2쯹쪾ꎬ웤쿠펦뗄ퟟ쫆죧춼2-2쯹쪾ꆣ뇭2-1 랿뗘닺뾪랢춶뫍랿뗘닺뾪랢힡햬춶1990-2005쓪뗄횵쓪 럝ꎨ쓪ꎩ19901991199219931994199519961997랿뗘닺뾪랢춶ꎨ틚풪ꎩ랿뗘닺뾪랢힡햬춶(틚풪)쓪 럝ꎨ쓪ꎩ19981999200020012002200320042005랿뗘닺뾪랢춶ꎨ틚풪ꎩ랿뗘닺뾪랢힡햬춶(틚풪)랿뗘닺뾪랢춶뾪랢힡햬춶춼2-1 랿뗘닺뾪랢춶뫍랿뗘닺뾪랢힡햬춶뇭2-2 짌욷랿쿺쫛쏦믽뫍힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽1996-2005쓪뗄횵쓪 럝ꎨ쓪ꎩ1996199719981999200020012002200320042005짌욷랿쿺쫛쏦믽(췲욽랽쏗)힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽(췲욽랽쏗)짌욷랿쿺쫛쏦믽(췲욽랽쏗)힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽(췲욽랽쏗)춼2-2 짌욷랿쿺쫛쏦믽뫍힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽26떥캻ꎨ틚풪ꎩ
3ꎩ뷰죚횧돖솦뛈뗄뇤뮯ꎨ1ꎩ랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮쟩뿶2003쓪ꎬ퇹뗣돇쫐랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮폠뛮캪틚풪ꎬ춬뇈퓶뎤%ꆣ웤훐룶죋힡랿듻뿮캪틚풪ꎬ춬뇈퓶뎤%ꆣ2004쓪ꎬ돇쫐랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮폠뛮캪틚풪ꎬ웤훐룶죋힡랿듻뿮캪틚풪ꆣ2005쓪ꎬ돇쫐랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮폠뛮캪틚풪ꎬ웤훐룶죋힡랿듻뿮캪틚풪ꆣ죧뇭2-3ꎬ춼2-3쯹쪾ꆣ뇭2-3 랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮뫍룶죋힡랿듻뿮2000-2005쓪뗄횵20042005쓪 럝ꎨ쓪ꎩ랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮폠뛮ꎨ틚풪ꎩ룶죋힡랿듻뿮폠뛮ꎨ틚풪ꎩ랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮폠뛮ꎨ틚풪ꎩ룶죋힡랿듻뿮폠뛮ꎨ틚풪ꎩ 춼2-3 랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮뫍룶죋힡랿듻뿮ꎨ2ꎩ룶죋힡랿듻뿮럖엤쟩뿶2003쓪ꎬ퇹뗣돇쫐룶죋힡랿듻뿮폠뛮캪틚풪ꎬ춬뇈퓶뎤%ꎻ웤훐ꎬ룶죋힡랿짌튵듻뿮폠뛮캪틚풪ꎬ햼룶죋힡랿듻뿮뗄86%ꎬ늨뚯뷏듳ꎬ춬뇈퓶뎤%ꎻ릫믽뷰룶죋힡랿듻뿮폠뛮캪틚풪ꎬ햼14%ꎬ춬뇈퓶뎤%ꆣ2004쓪탂퓶룶죋힡랿듻뿮틚풪ꆣ2005쓪폐쯹믘실ꎬ캪틚풪ꆣ뻟쳥죧뇭2-4ꎬ춼2-4쯹쪾ꆣ뇭2-4 랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮뫍룶죋힡랿듻뿮2000-2005쓪뗄횵쓪 럝 ꎨ쓪ꎩ200020012002200320042005탂퓶룶죋힡랿듻뿮ꎨ틚풪)탂퓶룶죋힡랿짌튵듻뿮(틚풪)듓틔짏뗄샭싛뫍쪵횤럖컶뿉틔뗃돶ꎺ커몺쫐랿뗘닺쫐뎡퓚늨뚯훐랢햹ꎬ퓚랢햹훐늻뛏늨뚯ꆣ27
140120100806040200200020012002200320042005탂퓶룶죋힡랿듻뿮ꎨ틚풪)탂퓶룶죋힡랿짌튵듻뿮(틚풪)춼2-4 랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮뫍룶죋힡랿듻뿮늨뚯춼쯤좻늨뚯늻뿉뇜쏢ꎬ떫랿뗘닺쫐뎡럇뎣첬뗄늨뚯좴뛔랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄붡뾵랢햹폐ퟅ훂쏼뗄캣몦ꆣ뚫쓏퇇뗄캣믺ꆢ컒맺놱몣ꆢ몣쓏뗄랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄럇뎣첬늨뚯뛔떱뗘뺭볃쓋훁좫쟲뗄펰쿬훁뷱폌듦ꆣ틲듋ꎬ캪놣횤커몺쫐랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄붡뾵ꆢ컈뚨뗄랢햹ꎬ컱뇘붨솢랿뗘닺쫐뎡풤뺯풤놨쳥쾵ꆣ28
3 힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯벰웤튪쯘맘쾵볬퇩늨뚯살풴폚컯샭톧뗄퇐뺿ꎬ틀뻝컯샭톧뗄뚨틥ꎬ“늨쫇퓚뷩훊훐뒫능뗄튻훖죅뚯”ꎬힴ첬뇤뮯뗄뒫능벴캪늨ꆣ얣뛙죏캪ꎺꆰ죓튻뿩쪯춷떽욽뺲뗄쮮쏦훐ꎬ평듋벤웰뗄쮮늨붫퓚쪯춷실쮮뗄뗘랽돖탸튻뛎쪱볤ꎬ늢듓헢샯틔춬탄풲뗄탎쪽퓚쮮쏦짏쿲풶뒦뒫능ꆣ뿕웸폃솦ힲ믷쯹벤웰뗄헱뚯뫍닼뚯튲붫돖탸짙탭쪱볤ꎬ늢듓ힲ믷뒦틔춬탄쟲뗄탎쪽뒫능떽풶랽ꆣ폫듋쿠쯆ꎬ떱맢쿟짤떽죎뫎춸쏷쳥뗄뇭쏦늢퓚쓇샯헛짤믲랴짤쪱ꎬ뻍튪퓚랴짤믲헛짤뷩훊훐죫짤뗣뗄뗘랽ꎬ벤웰헱뚯뫍닼뚯뗄늨ꎬ뛸쟒헢훖헱뚯ퟜ쓜퓚쓇샯랢짺늢듓쓇샯뒫능돶좥ꆱꆣ잿뗷쇋췢솦폕랢늨뚯뗄쮼쿫ꆣ햼훷쇷쮼뎱뗄뺭볃톧헟죏캪ꎺ늨뚯쫇릩룸뫍탨쟳솽룶뛔솢쏦뗄쎬뛜뫍춳튻ꆣ[32]컞싛죎뫎뺭볃쳥훆뚼믡돶쿖뺭볃퓋탐뗄짏쿂늨뚯ꆣ퓚쒳룶쪱웚ꎬ뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈볓뿬ꎬ돶쿖랱죙뺰쿳ꎻ퓚쇭튻쪱웚ꎬ뺭볃늻뺰웸ꎬ돶쿖춣훍뫍쮥췋ꆣ튲폐죋죏캪ꎬ쫐뎡뗄늨뚯쫇ퟢ뷰믲볛룱뗄뛌웚뇤뮯ꎬ춨뎣돖탸튻솽쳬떽벸룶[33]퓂ꎬ쫇평쫐뎡뗄췢늿솦솿틽웰ꎬ쯼폫쫐뎡훜웚늻춬ꎬ쫐뎡훜웚쫇평폚릩룸뫍탨쟳뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃뛸훁ꆣ헢훖붫늨뚯뫍훜웚쿠룮쇑뗄쮼쿫횻쫇붫늨뚯뾴ퟷ캪쫐뎡죅뚯뗄뷡맻ꎬ뛸뫶쫓쇋췢살돥믷뚼쫇춨맽릩쟳ퟷ폃폚힡햬쫐뎡뗄샭쓮ꆣ듳솿쫽뻝뫍쫂쪵뇭쏷ꎬ훐맺뺭볃늨뚯쪮럖쏷쿔ꎬ뺭볃퓶뎤쪼훕뒦폚뫜늻컈뚨ힴ첬ꎬ헢훖듳럹뛈뗄욵랱뗄늨뚯헱떴ꎬ퇏훘뗘ퟨ낭쇋훐맺뺭볃돖탸랢햹ꆣ죋쏇맘탄ꆢ퇐뺿뷏뛠뗄훐맺뺭볃늨뚯훷튪폐쪮튻듳샠탍뺭볃뇤솿늨뚯ꎺ뺭볃ퟜ솿ꎨGNPꎩ퓶뎤늨뚯ꆢ짺닺늨뚯ꆢ춶늨뚯ꆢ쿻럑늨뚯ꆢ릤늨뚯ꆢ믵뇒늨뚯ꆢ탅듻늨뚯ꆢ볛룱늨뚯ꆢ닆헾쫕횧늨뚯ꆢ짌튵뫍뿢듦늨뚯ꆢ췢쎳늨뚯ꎻ듓퇐뺿뗄랶캧뛸퇔ꎬ볈폐좫맺탔뺭볃퓶뎤늨뚯쿖쿳뗄퇐뺿ꎬ튲폐뗘쟸탔뺭볃퓶뎤늨뚯퇐뺿ꆣ퇇훞뷰죚캣믺틔살ꎬ랿뗘닺뺭볃뗄훜웚늨뚯퇐뺿뾪쪼돶쿖ꎬ뛸맘폚힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쾵춳퇐뺿좴뮹캴폐컄쿗볇퓘ꆣ듓쿁틥뗄샭뷢ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡쫇힡햬붻뮻뗄뎡쯹ꎻ뛸듓맣틥뛸퇔ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡쫇힡햬맘쾵뗄ퟜ뫍ꎬ헢튻룅쓮짦벰떽붻뮻맽돌훐죋폫죋횮볤뗄맘쾵ꎬ평듋뿉볻ꎬ웤쫐뎡뗄췢퇓뷏맣ꎬ뇟뷧쓑틔뮮쟥ꎬ틲듋ꎬ퓚놾컄훐ꎬ쪹폃ꆰ늨뚯ꆱ튻듊ꎬ뛸늻닉폃1ꆰ훜웚ꆱ뗄룅쓮닻쫶ꎬ틢폻잿뗷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯늻뷶쫇튻훖쓚짺뇤솿ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꎬ뛸쫇힡햬쫐뎡쓚짺뇤솿뫍췢짺뇤솿ퟛ뫏ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꎬ쫇힡햬쫐뎡쯹퓚뗄뫪맛뺭볃 1 훜웚탔늢럇탎돉늨뗄뇘튪쳵볾ꎬ싶돥늨튲쫇늨ꆣ쿖듺쫽샭랽돌뷌뿆쫩훐퓚늨뚯랽돌늿럖룸돶뗄웕뇩뷢쫇ꎺf1ꎨx+vtꎩ+f2ꎨx-vtꎩꎬ쯼늢늻맦뚨훜웚탔ꆣ늻첸훜웚탔닅쫇힡쇋늨뗄릲탔ꆣ29
뮷뺳ꆢ랿뗘닺퓙짺닺룷뮷뷚틲쯘뗄돥믷뫍힡햬쫐뎡쓚짺틲쯘쿠뮥펰쿬뗄뇭쿖탎쪽ꆣ2춬쪱ꎬ튲뇭쏷쇋훜웚늨뚯뗄뎤뛈뗈컊쳢늻퓚놾싛컄뗄퇐뺿뛔쿳횮훐ꆣ 힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뇭쿖짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯훷튪뇭쿖캪짌욷힡햬볛룱뫍붻틗솿쯦쪱볤뗄뇤뮯뛸돊쿖돶튻뚨뗄늨뚯첬쫆ꆣ틲캪쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄뇤뮯ꎬ랿뗘닺쫐뎡듦퓚쪱볤뗄헾닟ꆢ뫪맛뺭볃탎쫆틔벰랿뗘닺폫힡햬튵뗄ힴ뿶믡랢짺뇤뮯ꎬ힡햬볛룱뫍붻틗솿튲믡쯦횮랢짺뇤뮯폫뗷헻ꎬ헢훖뇤뮯폫뗷헻쫇짌욷힡햬쫐뎡랢햹훐뗄늨뚯ꎬ쫇뛠훖틲쯘ퟛ뫏ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꆣ쫐뎡뗄뫋탄쫇쫐뎡뗄볛솿ꎬ퓚훚뛠뗄힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿훐ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡볛룱뫍붻틗솿뗄늨뚯쫇힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄훘튪뇭쿖ꆣ힡햬짌욷볛룱쫇힡햬쫐뎡릩쟳뗄쟧폪뇭ꎬ떫쫇ꎬ평폚컒맺힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢쾵춳헽뒦폚붨짨웚ꎬ듦퓚ퟅ힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢늻뛔돆ꆢ늻춸쏷뗄쿖쿳ꎬ폐킩돇쫐훆뚨뗄믹ힼ뗘볛쳥쾵ꎬ틲뾼싇뗄틲쯘뛠ꎬ쟒룶뇰횸뇪죧죝믽싊뛔뗘볛뗄펰쿬쓑틔믲늻헽좷랴펳쫐뎡뗄ힴ뿶ꎬ뇘좻퓬돉쿠떱튻늿럖힡햬춶뗄쎤쒿탔뫍춶믺탔ꎬ훺뎤힡햬볛룱뗄늨뚯ꎬ헢훖늨뚯ퟮ훕믡떼훂힡햬풴쿠뛔볛룱뗄룄뇤ꆣ뛸힡햬볛룱뗄헇뗸ꎬ듸살춶힡햬믘놨싊뗄늨뚯ꆣ떱힡햬쫐뎡듦퓚룟샻죳뗄쟽뚯쪱ꎬ뇘좻떼훂짧믡뷰쇷쿲짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ꎬ힡햬뗄뾪랢붨짨솿퓶볓ꎬ춬쪱평폚힡햬볛룱짏헇풤웚뗄탎돉ꎬ떼훂힡햬쫐뎡톸쯙삩듳ꎬ쫐뎡릩쟳솽췺ꆢ붻틗솿퓶볓ꎻ떱힡햬짌욷볛룱퓚튻뚨쪱웚쓚짏헇떽튻뚨돌뛈ꎬ튻냣볒춥뻓뮧탨쟳헟쓑틔돐쫜ꎬ튻떩랿볛뎬맽쇋웕춨뻓뮧볒춥쫕죫헟뗄쿻럑쮮욽ꎬ쫐뎡뗄릩룸솿뎬맽쇋웤쫐뎡컼쓉쓜솦ꎬ벴뎬맽쇋짧믡뗄릺싲솿ꎬ힡햬짌욷뗄늻뫏샭볛룱붫뗃늻떽짧3믡뫍힡햬쿻럑헟뗄돐죏뫍뷓쫜ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡쟷쫆붫돶쿖볛룱퓶뎤싊뗄믘실ꎬ뛸평폚힡햬릩룸뗄쪱훍탔뗄듦퓚ꎬ웕춨짌욷뗄릩룸뮹믡늻뛏퓶볓ꎬ듋쪱뗄탨쟳좴틑돶쿖쿂붵뗄첬쫆ꎬ짌욷힡햬붫돶쿖듳솿쿐훃쿖쿳ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡붫쿝죫욣죭뷗뛎ꎬ뾪랢뗄힡햬훍쿺늢듳솿믽톹ꆣ힡햬뾪랢웳튵춶죫뗄뷰쓑틔믘쇽ꎬ쇷뚯뷰좱랦ꎬ캪냚췑삧뺳ꎬ뷸탐쿮쒿쯵복ꆢ춣붨믲뮺붨늿럖힡햬쿮쒿ꎬ믲죃쿮쒿춶막좨ꎬ믲붵뗍힡햬쫛볛ꎬ힡햬뾪랢쯙뛈쿂붵ꎬ듓뛸떼훂힡햬쫐뎡퓶뎤쿂뗸ꆣ컒맺힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯춬퇹뿉틔듓힡햬쫐뎡볛룱뇤뮯늨뚯뗄맬벣훐뗃틔돤럖뗄 2 퓚뷢쫍맢쿖쿳훐ꎬ얣뛙죏캪훜웚탔쫇늨뚯뗄튻룶훘튪쳘헷ꆣ쳡돶늨뚯쮵뗄믝룼쮹좴럱죏헱뚯믲늨뚯뗄훜웚탔ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뛔얣뛙살쮵ꎬ퓚쯻뗄캢솣쮵샭싛훐냼몬폐늨뚯쮵뗄뫏샭틲쯘ꆣ뺿뺹쮭쫇쮭럇ꎬ얣뛙죏캪“컒횻쫇뛔짐듽랢쿖뗄맢뫍쯼뛔ퟔ좻뷡릹뗄쓇킩킧맻뾪쪼ퟷ쇋튻킩럖컶ꎬ뛔쯼ퟷ쇋벸뗣쳡쪾ꎬ뛸냑헢킩쳡쪾쇴듽쓇킩뫃웦뗄죋쏇뷸튻늽좥폃쪵퇩뫍맛달살볓틔횤쏷뫍룄뷸ꆣ”3 뻝쫀뷧틸탐뛔튻킩맺볒뗄뗷닩퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎺ힡랿볛룱폫튻냣볒춥쓪쫕죫횮뇈놣돖퓚3ꎺ1ꆫ6ꎺ1횮볤ꎬ벴힡랿볛룱쫇튻냣볒춥쓪쫕죫뗄3ꆫ6놶쫇쿠뛔뫏샭뗄랶캧ꆣ30
쿔쿖ꆣ컒맺짌욷랿쫛볛1980쓪쎿욽랽쏗붨훾쫛볛캪죋쏱뇒200-300풪ꎬ1992쓪쎿욽랽쏗욽뻹쫛볛틑듯1100폠풪ꎬ떽1993쓪ꎬ늻짙돇쫐랿볛틑춻웆쎿욽랽쏗3000풪ꎬ헇럹듯250%ퟳ폒ꎬ1994쓪틲쫜쫐뎡펰쿬ꎬ욽뻹쫛볛횻뇈1993쓪짏헇9. 9%; 1995쓪볌탸믘실ꎬ훁1995쓪짏냫쓪ꎬ좫맺쪵볊쿺쫛랿컝욽뻹쫛볛캪1624풪/욽랽쏗ꆣ2004쓪ꎬ놱뺩ꆢ짏몣ꆢ몼훝뗈돇쫐뗄랿볛폖늻뛏뒴돶탂룟ꎬ훐탄돇쟸뗄힡랿볛룱틑춻웆3췲풪/욽랽쏗ꆣ퓚랿볛튻슷짏퇯뗄춬쪱ꎬ컒맺돇헲뻓쏱욽뻹릺랿뺭볃쓜솦좴쿠뛔쿂붵ꎬ폐맘쇏쿔쪾ꎺ1980쓪ꎬ튻쳗55욽랽쏗뗄솽쫒튻쳼힡햬쫛볛풼퓚췲풪횮볤ꎬ듳훂쿠떱폚춬웚뻓쏱쓪욽뻹릤쫕죫뗄15놶ퟳ폒ꎬ떽쇋1990쓪ꎬ춬퇹튻쳗짌욷랿ꎬ웤쫛볛헇훁쇋7췲풪ퟳ폒ꎬ쿠떱폚춬웚횰릤쓪욽뻹릤쫕죫뗄35놶ퟳ폒ꎬ떽1992쓪ꎬ헢퇹튻쳗짌욷랿뗄볛룱틑쿠떱폚춬웚횰릤쓪욽뻹릤쫕죫뗄뷼50놶ꎬ2004쓪ꎬ훐맺룷듳돇쫐헇럹뷏듳ꎬ2005쓪ꎬ맺볒틑뾪쪼뛔늻뫏샭뗄볛룱탩헇쿖쿳닉좡쇋튻쾵쇐듫쪩ꎬ짏몣뗈돇쫐뗄힡햬볛룱퓚2004쓪뗄믹뒡짏틑폐쇋튻뚨돌뛈뗄샭탔믘맩ꆣ[34]듓틔짏뗄럖컶훐뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ평폚쫐뎡쫆솦뫍늻췪좫탅쾢듦퓚ꎬ쫐뎡늢럇쪱뿌뚼놣돖ퟅ튻냣뻹뫢뫍뺺헹탔쫐뎡킧싊ꎬ쫐뎡뺭볃랢햹듦퓚늨뚯뗄뿍맛탔ꎬ쫐뎡뺭볃뗄튻냣맦싉쫇ꎺ릩킡폚쟳→듌벤볛룱짏짽→샻죳퓶볓→듌벤춶맦쒣삩헅→짌욷릩펦솿퓶볓→릩듳폚쟳→볛룱쿂붵→샻죳복짙→춶맦쒣쯵킡→짌욷릩펦솿복짙→릩킡폚쟳ꎬ죧듋톭뮷췹뢴ꆣ헢훖쿖쿳놩슶쇋쫐뎡뺭볃뗄튻룶훘튪뇗뛋ꎬ벴ퟔ랢뗷뷚탔ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡돶쿖뗄늨뚯폫헢훖ퟔ랢뗷뷚탔폐뫜듳맘쾵ꆣ평폚힡햬쿻럑킧폃뫍춶샻틦뗄쟽뚯ꎬ췹췹쪹짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄첬쫆ퟟ쿲솽룶ힴ첬ꎬ벴릩듳폚쟳뫍릩킡폚쟳ꆣퟜ쳥살붲ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯돊쿖돶짏짽웚ꆢ쿂붵웚솽듳럖튰ꆣ폖뿉쾸럖캪뢴쯕ꆢ랱죙ꎨ늨럥ꎩꆢ쮥췋ꆢ쿴쳵ꎨ늨마ꎩ쯄룶뷗뛎ꆣ떱돶쿖늨뚯쪱ꎬ뻍탨튪헾뢮돶쏦뷸탐랴훜웚탐헾룉풤ꎬ헢훖룉풤춨뎣캧죆ퟅ삩듳쮽죋쿻럑뫍퓶볓춶뗈랽쏦뷸탐ꎬ춨맽닆헾ꆢ뷰죚ꆢ췁뗘ꆢ쮰쫕뗈듫쪩살뗷뷚ꆣ떱릩듳폚쟳ꎬ믲헟쮵쫇맽뛈뎬잰랢햹쪱ꎬ뻍믡쿱2004쓪ꆫ2005쓪컒맺뛔힡햬쫐뎡뷸탐뫪맛뗷뿘쓇퇹ꎬ닉좡듫쪩틔틖훆“맽죈”쿖쿳ꆣ뛸떱릩킡폚쟳ꎬ믲헟쮵쫇랢햹훍뫳쪱ꎬ퓲닉좡듫쪩듌벤힡햬뗄탨쟳ꆣ죧96ꆢ97쓪ꎬ컒맺룷뗘뚼닉좡쇋튻쾵쇐듫쪩살듙뷸힡햬쿺쫛ꆣ뛸평폚힡햬짌욷짺닺훜웚뎤ꎬ뛔뗷뿘듫쪩췹췹폐훍뫳랴펦ꆣ헢튻랽쏦룸랴훜웚탐헾룉풤퓶볓쇋뢴퓓탔ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦튲뻍폐뿉쓜샻폃폫뫪맛뺭볃늨뚯룷룶뷗뛎뗄쪱볤닮ꎬ살복쟡탐튵늨뚯뗄돌뛈ꆣ돶쿖힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯늢늻웦맖ꎬ맘볼퓚폚튪헆컕웤맦싉탔ꎬ늢벰쪱닉좡뗃떱뗄뗷뿘듫쪩ꆣ웤훐폐죽뗣췹췹늻틗헆컕ꎬ틔훂믡쫜웤쏔믳ꎺ31
1ꎩ튻룶듳뗄늨뚯훐믡돶쿖탭뛠킡뗄늨뚯ꆣ샽죧ꎬퟜ뗄쟷쫆쫇짏짽웚ꎬ웤훐룶뇰쓪럝뿉쓜믡돶쿖쿂붵ꎬ좻뫳퓙랴떯짏좥ꆣ쿠랴뗄쟩뿶튲쫇죧듋ꆣ헢쪱ꎬ컒쏇뻍늻쓜놻웤쏔믳ꎬ틔훂퓚뗷뿘ꎨ헾뢮랽쏦ꎩ믲춶ꎨ웳튵랽쏦ꎩ짏돶쿖컳뚯ퟷꆣ2ꎩ늨뚯쯤좻폐웤듳훂뗄쪱볤맦싉ꎬ떫퓚튻킩쟩뿶쿂튲믡돶쿖샽췢ꎬ늨뚯훜웚쪱쿞퇓뎤ꎨ쯵뛌ꎩ쇋ꎬ믲늨뚯뗄럹뛈복킡쇋ꆣ캪뿆톧헆컕맦싉ꎬ탨튪퓚ힼ좷뗄쫐뎡탅쾢ꎨ쳘뇰쫇ힼ좷뗄춳볆쇏ꎩ믹뒡횮짏뗄헽좷에뛏ꎬ힡쏧춷ꎬ벰퓧뛔횢쿂튩ꎬ돉릦뗘뷸탐쇋랴훜웚탐헾룉풤ꆣ퓚훘듳춻랢쫂볾뗄럖컶훐ꎬ펦쟸뇰뛔듽ꎬ닉좡늻춬뗄듫쪩ꎬ죧놱뺩뗄짪냂돉릦ꎬ뇘붫뛔놱뺩뗘쟸힡햬튵뗄랢햹웰떽튻뚨뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃ꎬ퇓뎤힡햬쫐뎡쿲짏늨뚯뗄쪱볤뫍럹뛈ꆣ3ꎩ뗘폲뗄닮뇰탔ꆣ늻쓜틔뗣듺쏦ꎬ틔욫룅좫ꆣ컒맺럹풱쇉삫ꎬ룷뗘뺭볃쮮욽폐닮뇰ꆣ헽죧쫀뷧룷뗘랿뗘닺폫힡햬튵늨뚯맦싉폐닮틬튻퇹ꎬ컒맺룷뗘ꎨ쪡ꆢ돇쫐ꎩ뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯맦싉뇘좻믡폐닮뇰ꆣ죧1992ꆢ1993쓪ꎬ폐몣뿚ꆢ놱몣뗈늿럖뗘쟸돶쿖랿뗘닺맽죈ꎬ뛸훐맺뗄놱늿뗈뗘쟸뗄힡햬폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡춬뺭볃짧믡랢햹믹놾쫊펦ꎬ뛸폐킩뗘쟸퓲뮹풶풶훍뫳폚뺭볃랢햹ꆣ2004쓪ꆢ2005쓪돵뗄쟩탎튲튻퇹ꎬ떱훐늿뫍컷늿쒳킩뗘쟸퓚캪떱뗘힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뾴뫃뛸뮶타쪱ꎬ짏몣ꆢ몼훝ꆢ놱뺩뗈뗘쟸좴퓚캪떱뗘힡햬쫐뎡뗄맽죈뛸폇돮ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ튻뚨튪럖쟥뗘뗣ꆢ쪱볤ꆢ뎡뫏ꎬ뻟쳥쟩뿶뻟쳥럖컶ꎬퟅ솦퇐뺿놾뗘쟸ꎨ쳘뇰쫇놾돇쫐ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄맦싉탔ꆣ 힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쏨쫶힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯뿉틔럖캪솽샠ꎺ튻쫇맅뗤늨뚯ꎻ쇭튻샠쫇퓶뎤늨뚯ꆣ맅뗤늨뚯쫇힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿쪱볤탲쇐퓚튻뚨쮮욽뗄짏쿂퓋뚯ꆣ퓶뎤늨뚯쫇캧죆ퟅ늻뛏뇤뮯뗄쟷쫆뗄짏쿂퓋뚯ꆣ쟷쫆쫇쒳튻뇤솿쯦쪱볤뇤뮯쯹닺짺뗄돖탸뎤웚뗄퓋뚯ꎬ퓚쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝훐ꎬ뿉틔듦퓚솽샠쟷쫆ꎬ벴좷뚨탔쟷쫆뫍쯦믺탔쟷쫆ꆣ좷뚨탔쟷쫆쫇쪱볤뗄럇쯦믺몯쫽ꎬ쯦믺탔쟷쫆쫇쪱볤뗄쯦믺몯쫽ꆣ퓚힡햬쫐뎡훐ꎬ평폚웤릹돉뫍펰쿬틲ퟓ쫜떽뛠룶뮷뺳튪쯘뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ쟒웤ퟛ뫏ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻늻쫇좷뚨횵ꎬ틲듋헢킩쟷쫆췹췹몬폐쯦믺돉럖ꎬ듋쪱뗄쟷쫆뿉틔폃룃뇤솿퓋뚯쟷쫆쿮믲ꆰ욮틝쿮ꆱ쏨[35]쫶ꆣ캪쇋ힼ좷럖컶힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꎬ탨튪듓뿍맛뇭쿖뗄힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿퓋뚯훐ꎬ첽쟳돶힡햬쫐뎡퓋뚯뗄쟷쫆쿮뫍웤쯼쿮ꎬ좻뫳퓙듓힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿쫽뻝훐뿛돽쟷쫆쿮뗈ꎬ좷뚨힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯횵ꆣ튻냣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뺭볃쪱볤탲쇐Y뿉틔럖뷢캪뎤웚쟷쫆늿럖Tꆢ톭뮷늨뚯늿럖Cꆢ벾뷚뇤뚯늿럖S뫍죅뚯늿럖Iꎬ벴YꎽT+C+S+Iꆣ뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄쓪뛈횸뇪뛸퇔ꎬ32
벾뷚뇤뚯늿럖S뫍죅뚯늿럖I뚼뗃떽쇋쿻돽ꆣ틲듋ꎬ룹뻝쓪뛈횸뇪퇐뺿힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯틀삵폚뛔웤쟷쫆뗄럖뷢ꆣ쟷쫆맀볆뗄늻춬ꎬ퓲힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄럹뛈ꆢ삩햹뫍쫕쯵뗄쪱볤에뛏튲늻춬ꎬ틲듋ꎬ쟷쫆쿮뗄샫컶쫇퇐뺿힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄훘튪쓚죝횮튻ꆣ쿖뷗뛎ꎬ맀볆쟷쫆뗄랽램폐믘맩럖컶램ꆢ틆뚯욽뻹램ꆢHP싋늨램ꆢ퓶뎤싊램ꆢ튻뷗닮럖램뗈ꆣ HP싋늨1ꎩ믹놾풭샭HP싋늨쫇붫튻룶쪱볤탲쇐뾴ퟷ캪쫇튻룶쟷쫆늿럖뫍튻룶톭뮷늨뚯늿럖횮뫍ꆣ쯼쫇Hodrick뫍Prescott퓚1980쓪듺퇐뺿쏀맺뺭볃톭뮷쪱닉폃뗄랽램ꎬ1990쓪뛔췢[36]랢늼ꎬ웤뫳룃랽램뗃떽쇋맣랺뗄펦폃ꆣ룃랽램뗄믹놾쮼쿫쫇짨힡햬쫐뎡뗄쪱볤탲쇐뇤솿캪Yꎽ{y,y,...,y}ꎬ웤훐뗄쟷12n쫆쿮캪Tꎽ{T,T,...,T}ꎬn캪퇹놾뎤뛈ꆣHP싋늨붫쪱볤탲쇐Y훐뗄쟷쫆쿮T뚨틥캪12n[37]쿂쇐ퟮ킡뮯컊쳢뗄뷢ꎺ2nn2min{(y−T)+λ*[B(L)*T]}∑ii∑ii=1i=1웤훐ꎬB(L)쫇퇓동쯣ퟓ뛠쿮쪽−1B(L)=(L−1)−(1−L)HP싋늨뻍쫇쪹쿂쏦쯰쪧몯쫽ퟮ킡ꎬ벴2nn+12min{(y−T)+λ*[(T−T)−(T−T)]}∑ii∑i+1iii−1i=1i=2λ뷏듳ꎬ쟷쫆맀볆풽욽뮬ꎬ쟷뷼폚컞쟮쪱ꎬ쟷쫆몯쫽뷓뷼폚쿟탔몯쫽ꆣ헽죧F. Canovaꎨ1998ꎩ쯹쫶ꎺꆰ퓚헦쪵뺭볃훜웚쒣탍뗄컄쿗훐ꎬ쪱볤탲쇐뗄쟷쫆늢늻쫇쓚퓚폚쫽뻝훐뗄ꆣ쯼뗄쟷쫆쪵볊짏듺뇭쇋퇐뺿헟뗄맛뗣뫍욫뫃ꎬ늢쟒튲쫇[38]틀삵폚쯹퇐뺿뗄뺭볃컊쳢뗄ꆱꆣHP싋늨쫜떽헦쪵퓶뎤훜웚뗄퇐뺿톧헟뮶펭뗄튻룶풭틲뻍쫇HP싋늨톡퓱닎쫽쪮럖쇩믮ꎬ쯼뿉틔춨맽닎쫽뗄톡퓱뗃떽퇐뺿헟ퟔ벺뇈뷏쾣췻뗄쫽뻝쟷쫆ꆣ헢훖랽램듦퓚쏷쿔뗄솽룶컊쳢ꎬ튻쫇퓚싋늨쪱ꎬλ횵쫇훷맛뗄ꆣ쯤좻λ좡횵뗄뇤뮯뛔훜웚탔ퟩ돉늿럖뗄뇪ힼ닮ꆢퟔ쿠맘쾵쫽뫍떥캻룹볬퇩뚼늻쫇뫜쏴룐ꆣ떫쫇ꛋ좡횵뗄뇤뮯뛔훜웚탔ퟩ돉늿럖뫍쟷쫆탔ퟩ돉늿럖뗄릹돉뫍럖늼듦퓚펰쿬ꆣ죋캪뗄룸33
뚨ꛋ뗄횵뿉쓜믡믬쿽늨뚯ퟩ돉늿럖뗄뇤뮯뫍쟷쫆탔ퟩ돉늿럖뗄뇤뮯ꎬ뷸뛸떼훂쟷쫆뫍늨뚯뗄컳에ꆣ뛾쫇HP싋늨볙뚨쇋튻룶뇤뮯뗄쟷쫆ꆣ헢뿉쓜뛔폚죝솿뷏듳뗄퇹놾펰쿬뷏킡ꎻ떫뛔폚죝솿뷏킡뗄퇹놾펰쿬뇈뷏듳ꆣ2ꎩ쪵횤럖컶ꎨ1ꎩ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뗄늨뚯럖컶컒맺훁1986쓪냤늼췁뗘맜샭램ꆢ듙뷸힡햬폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡랢햹틔살ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄맦쒣늻뛏퓶듳ꎬ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뗄ퟜ솿늻뛏짏짽ꎬ떫웤퓶뎤쫜떽룷훖틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꎬ뇭쿖돶튻훖퓚늨뚯훐랢햹뗄첬쫆ꆣ룹뻝HP싋늨뗄풭샭ꎬλ닎쫽톡캪100ꎬ듓짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽복좥쿠펦뗄싋늨쟷쫆횵ꎬ벴뿉뗃떽짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뗄늨뚯횵ꎬ뻟쳥볆쯣죧뇭쯹쪾ꆣ뇭3ꎭ1 믹폚HP싋늨뗄짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뗄늨뚯횵볆쯣뇭짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뗄HP짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뗄쓪럝ꎨ췲욽랽쏗ꎩ싋늨쟷쫆횵ꎨ췲욽랽쏗ꎩ늨뚯횵ꎨ췲욽랽쏗ꎩ쇏살풴ꎺ2000ꆫ2003쓪쫽뻝살ퟔꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꎻ2004쓪쫽뻝살ퟔꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2005ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2005쓪냦ꎻ1986ꆫ1999쓪쫽뻝살ퟔꆶ훐맺만뚨닺춶춳볆쫽뗤2000ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2002쓪냦ꆣ붫뺭맽HP싋늨뫳뗄짌욷힡햬늨뚯횵폫쪱볤캬쿠뷡뫏뇭쿖퓚뗑뾨뛹ퟸ뇪쾵짏ꎬ웤뷡맻죧춼쯹쪾ꆣ34
훐맺힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽늨뚯춼500040003000200010000-1000-2000-30006789012345678901234888899999999990000099999999999999000001111111111111122222춼3ꎭ1 믹폚HP싋늨뗄훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽늨뚯춼평춼뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뗄늨뚯뻟폐틔쿂벸룶쳘헷ꎺꋙ훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛솿ퟔ1986쓪틔살ꎬ뺭샺쇋솽룶마뗗ꎺ튻룶퓚1991쓪돶쿖ꎻ튻룶퓚1997쓪돶쿖ꆣ뺭샺쇋솽룶늨럥ꎺ튻룶퓚1987쓪ꎻ튻룶퓚1993쓪ꆣꋚ1986쓪틔살뗄늨뚯톭뮷웚폐6쓪ꎬퟔ1993뫳ꎬ퓚뺭맽4쓪뎤쪱볤뗷헻뫳ꎬ쫐뎡닅놻훘탂벤믮ꎬ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛솿훰쓪퓶볓ꎬ퓶뎤웚볓뎤ꎬ틑듳폚4쓪뗄뗷헻웚ꎬ듓1993쓪뾪쪼틑풶샫HP쟷쫆쿮뒦폚늨뚯뗄룟캻쟸폲퓋탐ꎬ듓잰튻늨럥훁2004쓪틑폐10쓪폐폠ꎬ톭뮷웚틑퇓뎤ꆣꋛ뛾쪮튻쫀볍돵튶ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡붻틗솿뗄늨뚯럹뛈뗄뻸뛔횵듳ꎬ헢튻랽쏦랴펳쇋춨맽쫐뎡쫖뛎엤훃힡햬뗄럝뛮풽살풽듳ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦튲랴펳쇋힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯늢늻믡쯦ퟅ힡햬쫐뎡뗄맦쒣퓶볓뛸복죵믲쿻췶ꆣꎨ2ꎩ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮뗄늨뚯럖컶훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쯦ퟅ죋쏇쿻럑맛쓮뗄룄뇤ꆢ쫐뎡엤훃힡햬뗄ퟷ폃뷸튻늽볓잿ꎬ쫐뎡뗄쿺쫛뛮퓚ퟜ솿짏튲늻뛏쳡룟ꎬ2004쓪짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮쫇10쓪잰쓪쿺쫛뛮뗄12놶ꎬ떫쎿쓪퓶뎤뗄럹뛈퓚룷쓪뚼폐튻킩뇤뮯ꆣ룹뻝훐맺춳볆쇏ꎬ뿉틔럖컶뗃떽짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮뗄늨뚯횵ꎬ뻟쳥볆쯣죧쿂뇭쯹쪾ꆣ뇭3ꎭ2 믹폚HP싋늨뗄짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯횵볆쯣뇭35
짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮뗄HP싋짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮뗄쓪럝ꎨ췲풪ꎩ늨쟷쫆횵ꎨ췲풪ꎩ늨뚯횵ꎨ췲풪ꎩ19912075979-3352396542837519923798493-865963885089199372919133233488405842519947305208670099060421819951024070510449629-20892419961106900614619167-355016119971407555319347275-527172219982006867624736123-466744719992413734730835165-669781820003228604637647179-536113320014021154345107966-489642320024957850153099713-35212122003654344926145564739788452004861936676997378016219887쇏살풴ꎺ2000ꆫ2003쓪쫽뻝살ퟔꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꎻ2004쓪쫽뻝살ퟔꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2005ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2005쓪냦ꎻ1986ꆫ1999쓪쫽뻝살ퟔꆶ훐맺만뚨닺춶춳볆쫽뗤2000ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2002쓪냦ꆣ붫뺭맽HP싋늨뫳뗄짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯횵폫쪱볤캬쿠뷡뫏뇭쿖퓚뛾캬ퟸ뇪쾵짏ꎬ웤뷡맻죧춼쯹쪾ꆣ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯춼20000000150000001000000050000000-5000000-1000000012345678901234999999999000009999999990000011111111122222춼3ꎭ2 믹폚HP싋늨뗄훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯춼평듋뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮뗄늨뚯뻟폐틔쿂벸룶쳘헷ꎺꋙ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮뗄늨뚯폫쿺쫛쏦믽뗄늨뚯뗄맦싉듳훂튻훂ꎬ떫늨뚯뗄럥뗣36
뫍마뗣뗄돶쿖쪱볤늢늻췪좫쿠춬ꎬ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽듯떽튻룶럥횵쪱ꎬ쿺쫛뛮늢캴늻튻뚨퓚춬쪱돶쿖럥횵ꎬ1997쓪짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛솿뒦폚마뗗ꎬ뛸짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮퓚룃뗣돶쿖늨마쳘헷ꎬ뷓뷼마뗗ꎬ뛸늢럇마뗗ꎬ뺭맽HP싋늨뗄짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯뗄마뗗퓚1999쓪돶쿖ꆣꋚ쿺쫛뛮퓚늨마엇뮲뗄쪱볤뷏뎤ꎬ퓚짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽쳡룟ꆢ힡햬탨쟳돊쿖랴첬쫆틔뫳ꎬ짌욷힡햬뗄쿺쫛뛮닅훰늽짏퇯ꎬ벴뇭쿖돶힡햬쪵컯쏦믽솿짏뗄탨쟳듙쪹짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮뗄쳡룟ꎬ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛솿뗄늨뚯뷏캪쏴룐뗘랴펳쇋짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄첬쫆뫍탨쟳뗄뇤뮯ꆣ 믘맩럖컶램1ꎩ믹놾풭샭믘맩럖컶램볙짨쪱볤탲쇐뗄쟷쫆늿럖폫늨뚯늿럖늻쿠맘ꎬ쟒쟷쫆뗄뇤뮯맢뮬ꆣ헢룶랽램볲떥뗘톡폃쪱볤ퟷ캪쟷쫆쿮뗄ퟔ뇤솿ꎬ튻뚨돌뛈짏뇜쏢쇋죋캪톡퓱ꛋ횵듸살뗄컊쳢ꆣ톡폃헢룶맀볆랽램쫇믹폚죧쿂뗄뾼싇ꎺ뗚튻ꎬ헒늻떽쏷쿔뗄샭평죏캪쟷쫆놾짭뗄뇤뮯쫇늻욽뮬뗄ꎻ뗚뛾ꎬ평듋닺짺뗄욫닮뿉틔퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏뷢쫍캪쫇늨뚯틲ퟓꆣ떱쪱볤쟷쫆몯쫽캪쿟탎쪱ꎬ퓚붨솢힡햬쫐뎡뗄쟷쫆몯쫽쪱ꎬ뿉닉폃뛠쿮쪽랽돌2y=b+bt+bt012살맀볆힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿쟷쫆ꎬ웤훐y캪힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿쟷쫆횵ꎬt캪쓪뛈쫽ꆣ떱좻ꎬ룹뻝힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿뗄퓋뚯맦싉ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿쟷쫆횵튲뿉닉폃럇쿟탔랽돌쓢뫏ꎬ믲헟튻듎쿮ꆢ죽ꆢ쯄ꆢ컥듎쿮랽돌쓢뫏ꎬ뻟쳥믘맩랽돌뿉닎헕쓢뫏뺫뛈뫍힡햬쫐뎡쪵볊ힴ뿶뛸뚨ꆣ헦쪵뗄힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿횵Ry폫쟷쫆횵y뗄닮뛮퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏뿉뷢쫍캪힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ꎬ폐쪱ꎬ캪쇋업돽믹쫽뛔늨뚯솿횵펰쿬ꎬ퓚쏨쫶힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쪱ꎬ튲뿉닉폃늨뚯싊횸뇪Rc살뷢쫍힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ꆣ뻟쳥볆쯣릫쪽죧쿂ꎺc=Ry−y,Rc=c/y헢훖랽램퓚좷뚨힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯횵쪱ꎬ듦퓚틔쿂컊쳢ꎺ튻쫇쪱볤탲쇐쟷쫆횵뗄좷뚨틲늻춬뗄믘맩쟷쫆랽돌뛸늻춬ꎬ늢쟒퓚훚뛠쓢뫏뗄쟷쫆랽돌훐ꎬ톡뚨튻쳵쟷쫆쿟뻟폐튻뚨뗄훷맛탔ꎬ듓뛸뛔늨뚯횵뗄럖컶닺짺뷏듳뗄펰쿬ꎻ뛾쫇닉폃늨뚯싊횸뇪뫢솿힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쪱ꎬ쯦ퟅ쫐뎡뗄삩듳ꎬ벴쪹늨뚯횵뷏듳ꎬ늨뚯싊죔좻뿉틔37
뇈뷏킡ꎬ랴펳퓚뛔퓶뎤늨뚯럖컶쪱ꎬ죝틗떼훂돶퓚튻뚨뗄뻸뛔늨뚯럹뛈쿂ꎬ늨뚯싊훰늽쿂붵뗄쿖쿳ꎬ죵뮯듽럖컶뗘쟸믲돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄돌뛈ꆣ본폚듋ꎬ놾컄룹뻝컒맺힡햬쫐뎡뗄쫽뻝횱뷓닉폃힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿횵Ry폫쟷쫆횵y뗄닮뛮ퟷ캪힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯횵ꆣ2ꎩ쪵횤럖컶ꎨ1ꎩ믹폚믘맩뗄훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽늨뚯럖컶짨1986쓪뗄쪱볤뇤솿캪1ꎬ벴tꎽ{1,2,3,...,19}ꎬ횱뷓틔훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽Ryퟷ캪틲뇤솿ꎬ퓚뇈뷏뛠룶쒣쓢랽돌뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ닉폃뛾듎뛠쿮쪽랽돌붨솢힡햬쫐뎡뗄쟷쫆몯쫽ꎬ뻟쳥닎쫽볻쿂쪽ꎺ2Y=−+평룃쪽볆쯣짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛쏦믽쓢뫏쟷쫆횵ꎬ룹뻝c=Ry−y볆쯣짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛쏦믽늨뚯횵ꎬ뷡맻볻뇭쯹쪾ꆣ뇭3ꎭ3 믹폚믘맩럖컶뗄훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛쏦믽늨뚯볆쯣뇭 떥캻ꎺ췲욽랽쏗힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛힡햬쫐뎡쿺힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛쏦힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛쓪럝쏦믽쓢뫏쟷쫆쓪럝쫛쏦믽쓢뫏믽늨뚯횵쏦믽늨뚯횵횵Y쟷쫆횵붫쯹볆쯣뗄짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뗄늨뚯횵폫쪱볤쿠뷡뫏뇭쿖퓚춼짏ꎬ평춼쯹횪ꎺ1986쓪뫳훐맺뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡틽살쇋튻늨솼뫃뗄랢햹웚ꎬ1988쓪ꆫ1991쓪랢햹복뮺ꎬ웤뫳훁1993쓪폖폐튻늨잿쫆짏헇ꆣ1993쓪틔뫳짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯듓잿쫆ퟟ쿲죵쫆ꎬ뺭맽1997뗄마뗗뫳ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡퓙듎훘쪰짽쫆ꆣ38
믹폚믘맩뗄훐맺힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽늨뚯춼3000200010000-1000-2000-30006789012345678901234888899999999990000099999999999999000001111111111111122222춼3ꎭ3 믹폚믘맩뗄훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽늨뚯춼룹뻝믘맩쓢뫏뗄랽램럖컶뗄훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽늨뚯맦싉폫믹폚HP싋늨쯹럖컶뗄맦싉믹놾튻훂ꆣꎨ2ꎩ믹폚믘맩뗄훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯럖컶틔쪱볤캪ퟔ뇤솿tꎬ짨1991쓪뗄쪱볤뇤솿캪1ꎬtꎽ{1,2,3,...,14}ꎬ틔훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ퟷ캪틲뇤솿yꎬ닉폃뛾듎뛠쿮쪽랽돌붨솢힡햬쫐뎡뗄쟷쫆랽돌ꎬ볻쿂쪽ꎺ2Y=10101000−3886000t+630910t평룃쪽볆쯣짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛뛮쟷쫆횵ꎬ룹뻝룃쟷쫆횵뫍짌욷힡햬쪵볊쿺쫛뛮볆쯣짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛뛮늨뚯횵ꎬ뷡맻볻뇭쯹쪾ꆣ뇭3ꎭ4 믹폚믘맩뗄훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛뛮늨뚯럖컶뇭힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛뛮힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛뛮힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛뛮힡햬쫐뎡쿺쓪럝쓪럝쓢뫏쟷쫆횵늨뚯횵쓢뫏쟷쫆횵쫛뛮늨뚯횵199119986846000-477002119392000676676199219994853000-105450726231000-2093653199320004121000317091334333000-2046954199420014652000265320843696000-3484457199520026444000379670554321000-4742499199620039498000157100666208000-7735081997200413814000261553793570006836667붫쯹볆쯣뗄짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮뗄늨뚯횵폫쪱볤뇭쿖퓚춼3ꎭ4짏ꎬ춨맽뛔믹폚믘맩뗄짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯뗄럖컶ꎬ틔벰폫잰쫶럖컶뗄뛔뇈뿉횪틔쿂쳘뗣ꎺ39
믹폚믘맩뗄훐맺힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯춼80000006000000400000020000000-2000000-4000000-600000019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004춼3ꎭ4 믹폚믘맩뗄훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯춼ꋙ1991쓪틔살뗄쫽뻝뇭쏷ꎺ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯뗄엌헻뫍뗷헻뗄쪱볤뎤ꆣ1993쓪듯떽럥횵틔뫳ꎬ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮뺭샺쇋뎤듯6쓪뗄뗷헻ꎬ뗷헻뗄쪱볤뎤폚훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽늨뚯뗄뗷헻쪱볤ꆣ폖뺭맽2000ꆢ2001ꆢ2002쓪죽쓪뗄믖뢴탔엌헻ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡닅뗃틔믽탮쿲짏늨뚯뗄쓜솿ꆣꋚ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯평믖뢴웚떽랱죙웚늨뚯뗄쪱볤뛌ꆢ럹뛈듳ꆣ듓1991쓪짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨마떽1993쓪뗄늨럥뺭샺쇋솽쓪ꎬ2002쓪뫳솽쓪ꎬ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮뗃떽뿬쯙짏퇯ꎬ뺭맽2쓪뗄랢햹ꎬ2003쓪뗗2004쓪돵폐맘볒뻍랢돶쇋뺯쳨랿뗘닺맽죈뗄뺯쪾ꆣꋛ쫜맺볒헾닟뗄ퟷ폃듳ꆣ1991쓪뫳솽쓪ꎬ퓚훐퇫좫쏦췆탐랿룄뗄헾닟횧돖ꆢꆰ쓏톲붲뮰ꆱ뫍힡햬쫐뎡ퟔ짭랢햹맦싉뗄튪쟳쿂ꎬ훐맺뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗃떽쇋뿬쯙랢햹ꎬ1993쓪벴듯떽쇋짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯뗄럥횵ꎬ웤뫳ꆶ랿뗘닺쫐뎡뫪맛맜샭춨횪ꆷ냤늼ꎬ뺭볃쪵쪩뫪맛뗷뿘ꎬ뷴쯵틸룹뗈튻쾵쇐듫쪩돶첨ꎬ훁1999쓪짌욷힡햬뗄쿺쫛뷰뛮늻뛏캮쯵ꆣ2002쓪뫳ꎬ퓚믽벫닆헾뗄횧돖쿂ꎬ죋쏇뗄릺랿죈쟩닅뗃떽쇋벫듳뗄벤랢ꆣ 퓶뎤싊뛈솿램1ꎩ믹놾쮼쿫뷼쓪살퇐뺿퓶뎤늨뚯뗄쪱볤탲쇐튻냣샻폃퓶뎤싊살쏨쫶ꎬ퓶뎤싊g뗄볆쯣릫t쪽튻냣닉폃틔쿂뗄탎쪽ꎺgꎽ(y−y)/yttt−1t−140
쪽훐y캪듽럖컶뗄튻룶쪱볤탲쇐ꆣt헢훖랽램뗄튻룶뫃뒦뻍쫇쎻폐죋캪뗘뛔쟷쫆짨뚨뇤뮯쒣쪽ꎬ돽뾼싇퓶뎤럹뛈폫튻뚨솿뗄뇈횵췢ꎬ늻틽죫훷맛쳞돽쟷쫆뗄랽램ꆣ떫샻폃퓶뎤싊쏨쫶힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쪱튲믡닺짺튻킩컊쳢ꎺ뗚튻ꆢ퓶뎤싊쫇튻룶퓶뎤럹뛈폫튻뚨쪱웚솿뗄뇈횵ꎬ떱잰튻웚믲믹웚뗄뻸뛔쫽뫜뗍쪱ꎬ벴쪹퓶뎤싊럇뎣룟ꎬ웤뻸뛔쫽죔좻뿉틔뇈뷏뗍ꆣ뗚뛾ꆢ평폚뛌웚늨뚯쫜쯦믺틬뎣틲쯘뗄펰쿬뷏듳ꎬ틲듋샻폃뛌웚쪱볤탲쇐횸뇪볆쯣돶뗄퓶뎤싊췹췹컞맦싉뿉톭ꆣ뗚죽ꆢ늻쓜ힼ좷랴펳늨뚯뗄럹뛈뫍헛뗣ꆣ뗚쯄ꆢ쿂튻웚뛔짏튻웚맽뿬ꎨ맽싽ꎩ랢햹뗄뗷헻쪹뗃퓶뎤싊쓑틔랴펳쫐뎡늨뚯뗄캻쫆ꆣ뗚컥ꆢ퓶뎤싊횻쓜랴펳쿠쇚솽웚뗄뇤뚯첬쫆ꆣ뺡맜죧듋ꎬ퓶뎤싊뛈솿램평폚닙ퟷ볲뇣ꆢ횸뇪뗄뺭볃몬틥쏷좷ꎬ죝틗샭뷢ꎬ죔좻뗃떽쇋맣랺뗄펦폃ꆣ2ꎩ쪵횤럖컶ꎨ1ꎩ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽퓶뎤싊늨뚯럖컶룹뻝1986ꆫ2004쓪훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽쫽뻝ꎬ닉폃퓶뎤싊뛈솿램볆쯣힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛쏦믽퓶뎤늨뚯뗄쟩탎죧뇭쯹쪾뇭3ꎭ5 훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛쏦믽퓶뎤싊뇭쓪럝198719881989199019911992199319941995힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽퓶뎤싊쓪럝199619971998199920002001200220032004힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽퓶뎤싊붫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛쏦믽퓶뎤싊뗄뇤뮯늨뚯뇭쪾캪쿂춼ꆣ평춼뿉뾴돶ꎬ횻폐1989쓪뗄훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽퓶뎤싊캪뢺횵ꎬ웤쯼럖컶쓪럝뗄퓶뎤싊뷔캪헽횵ꎬ쮵쏷훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ꎬퟔ1986쓪틔살ꎬ웤늨뚯쒣쪽늻뻟폐맅뗤퓶뎤뗄쳘헷ꎬ뛸뻟폐뷏잿뗄퓶뎤늨뚯뗄쳘헷ꆣ41
훐맺힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽퓶뎤싊늨뚯춼춼3ꎭ5 훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽퓶뎤싊늨뚯춼ꎨ2ꎩ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮퓶뎤싊늨뚯럖컶룹뻝1991ꆫ2003쓪훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮쫽뻝ꎬ볆쯣힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛뛮퓶뎤싊늨뚯뗄쟩탎죧뇭쯹쪾뇭3ꎭ6 훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛뛮퓶뎤싊뇭쓪럝1991199219931994199519961997힡햬쿺쫛뛮퓶뎤싊쓪럝1998199920002001200220032004힡햬쿺쫛뛮퓶뎤싊붫퓶뎤싊뗄뇤뮯늨뚯뇭쪾캪쿂춼ꆣ평춼뿉뾴돶ꎬ쯹폐럖컶쓪럝뗄훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛뛮퓶뎤싊뷔캪헽횵ꎬ쮵쏷훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯ퟔ1991쓪틔살ꎬ돊쿖잿퓶뎤늨뚯뗄쳘헷ꆣ42
훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮퓶뎤싊늨뚯춼춼3ꎭ6 훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮퓶뎤싊늨뚯춼 튻뷗닮럖뗄랽램튻뷗닮럖뗄랽램ퟮ믹놾뗄볙짨쫇탲쇐뗄쟷쫆늿럖쫇튻룶쯦믺폎ퟟ맽돌ꎬ뛸늨뚯늿럖퓲쫇욽컈뗄ꎬ헢솽늿럖늻쿠맘ꎬ쯹틔튻룶쪱볤탲쇐y뿉틔킴돉죧쿂뗄탎쪽ꎺty=y+ctt−1t쟷쫆뿉틔뚨틥캪yꎬ뛸늨뚯늿럖c뗄맀볆솿뿉틔뚨틥캪ˆc=y−yꆣ죧맻쪹ttttt−1폃좡뛔쫽뫳뗄힡햬쫐뎡쫽뻝살ퟷ캪쪱볤탲쇐뗄풭쪼쫽뻝ꎬ쓇쎴늨뚯늿럖뻍뿉틔뷼쯆뗘쫓캪룃뇤솿뗄퓶뎤싊gꆣtˆc=logy−logy=log(y/y)=log(1+g)≈gttt−1tt−1tt쯹틔튻뷗닮럖튲춬퇹듦퓚퓶뎤싊뛈솿램뗄좱뗣ꆣ 힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄돉틲 짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬틲쯘럖샠짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯짦벰랿뗘닺폫힡햬뺭볃쳥쾵뗄랽랽쏦쏦ꎬ헢훖뢴퓓뗄쿖쿳43
늻뿉쓜폃쒳튻떥룶틲쯘뷢쫍ꎬ쎻폐죋룒냑힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯맩폚쒳훖룶뇰틲쯘ꆣ퓚춨뎣뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ쿱뺭볃훜웚헢퇹뢴퓓뗄쿖쿳ꎬ쫇평탭뛠틲쯘퓬돉뫍뻶뚨뗄ꆣ펰쿬힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄틲쯘폐뫜뛠ꎬ훮죧훆뛈틲쯘ꎨ짧믡훆뛈ꆢ췁뗘훆뛈ꆢ힡랿훆뛈ꎩꆢ헾닟틲쯘ꎨ닆헾헾닟ꆢ믵뇒헾닟ꆢ닺튵헾닟ꎩꆢ죋뿚틲쯘ꎨ죋뿚쫽솿ꆢ죋뿚뷡릹ꎩꆢ탄샭틲쯘ꆢ퓖몦틲쯘뗈뗈ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ펰쿬힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄틲쯘뻟폐쏷쿔뗄뛠퇹탔ꎬ캪쇋퇐뺿힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯맦싉ꎬ폐뇘튪붫펰쿬힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄틲쯘뷸탐럖샠ꆣ내뺭볃쫴탔럖ꎬ뿉럖캪뺭볃틲쯘뫍럇뺭볃틲쯘ꆣ뺭볃틲쯘냼삨힡햬ퟜ릩룸ꆢ힡햬ퟜ탨쟳ꆢ힡햬춶ꆢ맺쏱뺭볃ힴ뿶뗈뗈틲쯘ꎻ럇뺭볃틲쯘냼삨헾훎ꆢퟔ좻퓖몦ꆢ햽헹뗈뗈틲쯘ꆣ내틲쯘뿉뿘쫴탔럖ꎬ뿉럖캪뿉뿘훆탔틲쯘뫍늻뿉뿘훆탔틲쯘ꆣ뿉뿘훆탔틲쯘냼삨힡햬춶뛮ꆢ엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽ꆢ듻뿮샻싊ꆢ힡햬붻틗쮰럑뗈ꎬ쇭췢힡햬훆뛈랽쏦뗄틲쯘훁짙퓚샭싛짏쮵튲쫇뿉뿘훆뗄틲쯘ꆣ늻뿉뿘훆탔틲쯘냼삨ꎺ헾훎뚯떴ꆢ햽헹ꆢퟔ좻퓖몦뗈뗈ꆣ내폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡솪쾵뗄뷴쏜맘쾵럖ꎬ뿉럖캪돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄뫪맛틲쯘ꎬ힡햬닺튵솴틲쯘뫍힡햬쫐뎡볛솿틲쯘ꆣ뫪맛틲쯘냼삨GDPꆢ랿뗘닺튵GDPꆢ뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫ꆢ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶ꆢ랿뗘닺뾪랢춶ꆢ랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮폠뛮ꆢ뷰죚튵듻뿮폠뛮ꆢ탂퓶랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮뛮ꆢ탂퓶뷰죚튵듻뿮뛮ꆢ뒢탮듦뿮ꆢ돇쫐죋뿚뗈ꆣ힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵솴틲쯘냼삨랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽ꆢ랿뗘닺쿮쒿릤돌엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽ꆢ랿컝쪩릤쏦믽ꆢ랿컝뾢릤쏦믽ꆢ짌욷랿뿕훃쏦믽ꆢ짌욷랿풤쿖쫛쏦믽ꆢ짌욷랿쿺쫛뷰뛮ꆢ짌욷랿쿺쫛욽뻹볛룱ꆢ룶죋힡랿듻뿮폠뛮ꆢ랿닺웵쮰ꆢ냬릫폃랿볛룱쮮욽벰웤ퟢ뷰쮮욽ꆢ짌럾폃랿볛룱쮮욽벰웤ퟢ뷰쮮욽뗈ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡볛솿틲쯘냼삨힡햬쿺쫛싊ꆢ힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ힡햬볛룱쮮욽ꆢ힡햬ퟢ뷰쮮욽ꆣ 짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄돉틲뺭볃늨뚯쫇짧믡훐뗄뺭볃믮뚯쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄뇤뮯뛸돶쿖뗄삩헅뫍쫕쯵붻쳦랴뢴퓋뚯뗄맽돌ꎬ쯼뗄탎돉뻟폐쿖듺릤튵짺닺뻟폐뗄ꆢ춻좻쳸풾쪽뗄엲헍폫쫕쯵쿠붻쳦뗄늨뚯퓋뚯뗄컯훊믹뒡ꆣꆰ쯦ퟅ믽샛뫍냩쯦믽샛뛸살뗄샍뚯짺닺솦뗄랢햹ꎬ놾뗄춻좻삩헅튲퓶뎤쇋ꎬ헢늻뷶쫇틲캪횴탐횰쓜뗄놾뗄짬쯵탔뫍뻸뛔닆뢻ꆪꆪ놾늻맽쫇웤훐튻룶뿉짬쯵뗄늿럖ꆪꆪ퓶뎤쇋ꎬ튲늻뷶쫇틲캪탅폃쎿떱폶떽쳘쫢듌벤믡퓚퇛횮볤냑헢훖닆뢻뗄럇뎣듳뗄늿럖ퟷ캪ힷ볓놾룸짺닺횧엤ꎬ헢뮹틲캪짺닺맽돌놾짭뗄벼쫵쳵볾ꎬ믺웷ꎬ퓋쫤릤뻟뗈뗈ꎬ폐뿉쓜틔ퟮ듳뗄맦쒣ퟮ톸쯙뗘냑쪣폠닺욷뮯캪ힷ볓뗄짺닺쇏ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ짺닺맦쒣춻좻쳸풾쪽뗄엲헍쫇쯼춻좻[39]쫕쯵뗄잰쳡ꎻ뛸뫳헟폖틽웰잰헟ꆱꆣ십뿋쮼퓚ꆶ놾싛ꆷ훐싛쫶뺭볃늨뚯뫍캣44
믺뗄풭틲폐솽룶ꎺ튻쫇뿍맛뿉쓜탔ꆣ샽죧듳릤튵뗄짺닺랽쪽쫇뺭볃뗃틔쳸풾쪽삩헅뗄벼쫵믹뒡ꎻ믵뇒닺짺뫳ꎬ짌욷쓚퓚뗄볛횵뫍쪹폃볛횵뗄쎬뛜췢뮯캪짌욷뫍믵뇒뗄뛔솢ꎬ믵뇒탎쪽놾짭잱럼ퟅ뺭볃늨뚯뗄뿉쓜탔ꎻ만뚨놾뗄훜쫇뺭볃늨뚯뗄컯훊믹뒡ꆣ뛾쫇훷맛풭틲뫍훆뛈낲업짏뗄풭틲ꆣ샽죧ꎬ짺닺뫍짌튵뗄췑뷚ꎻ짧믡짺닺뇈샽뗄쪧뗷ꎻ탅폃훆뛈뛔늨뚯뗄룜룋펰쿬ꎻ뛔뾹탔뗄럖엤맘쾵퓬돉쿁킡뗄쫐뎡뗈ꆣ십뿋쮼쳡돶뗄쿖듺릤튵짺닺뻟폐뗄춻좻쳸풾쪽뗄엲헍솦ꆢ쫕쯵솦뫍훷맛풭틲폫훆뛈낲업ꎬ뷒쪾쇋뺭볃늨뚯ꆢ튲쫇힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯돉틲뗄놾훊ꆣ짌욷힡햬짺닺쯹햼폐뫍퓋ퟷ뗄놾솿ꆢ췁뗘솿벰샍뚯솿뚼쿠떱듳ꎬ웤퓚퓋뚯훐ퟔ좻믡쿳웤쯻듳릤튵짺닺쾵춳튻퇹닺짺춻좻쳸풾뗄엲헍솦뫍쫕쯵솦ꎬ탎돉짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쳘폐뗄늨뚯맦싉ꆣ1ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쫇평뛠훖틲쯘쿠뮥ퟷ폃탎돉ꎬ늻뿉쓜폃죎뫎캨튻뗄풭틲볓틔뷢쫍ꆣ2ꎩ쎿튻듎쫐뎡늨뚯훐ꎬ늢럇쯹폐틲쯘뚼퓚웰ퟷ폃ꎬ췹췹횻폐튻ퟩ훘튪틲쯘웰ퟷ폃ꎬ훘튪틲쯘틲늻춬뗄쪱볤ꆢ뗘뗣뛸늻춬ꆣ3ꎩ퓚쎿ퟩ틲쯘훐ꎬ늻쫇쎿튻훖틲쯘뚼뒦폚춬뗈훘튪뗄뗘캻ꆣ퓚쎿듎힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯훐ꎬ웰떽횱뷓ꆢ훷떼ퟷ폃뗄틲쯘ꎬ튲늻튻뚨쿠춬ꆣ퓚튻룶쿖쪵뗄쫐뎡늨뚯삩헅뷗뛎훐횹ꎬ쿲쫕쯵뷗뛎쪱ꎬ웰떽횱뷓떼믰쿟ퟷ폃뗄틲쯘ꎬ췹췹횻뇭쿖캪튻뛾룶훘튪틲쯘ꎬ뛔폚헢훖쟩뿶ꎬ쏀맺뺭볃늨뚯훜웚볒쓡쏗삭뫍럆샻웕ꆤ뿋삳틲ퟷ쇋튻룶탎쿳뗄뇈폷ꎺꆰ듳랲캣믺ꎬ쒳튻룶믲쇭췢튻룶틲쯘믡돉캪쮥췋뗄훘튪틲쯘ꎬ헢쫇쯹캽튻룹떾닝톹뛏쇋싦췕놳ꆣꆱ좻뛸ꎬꆰ튻룹떾닝ꆱ쓜릻ꆰ톹뛏싦췕놳ꎬ뻸늻[40]뷶뷶쫇튻룹떾닝뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ뛸쫇폐웤쯻훖훖틲쯘ퟷ쇋쫂쿈뗄워뗦ꆱꆣퟛ뫏럖컶룷훖쇷엉뗄쮼쿫ꎬ뿉붫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄돉틲맩쓉캪틔쿂벸훖맛뗣ꎺꎨ1ꎩ맺쏱뺭볃늨뚯쮵[41]돖룃맛뗣뗄톧헟죏캪ꎺ맺쏱뺭볃뗄늨뚯쫇힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄믹놾풭틲ꆣ퓚쫐뎡뺭볃뫍짧믡뮯듳짺닺쳵볾쿂ꎬ짧믡ퟜ샍뚯퓚룷룶늿쏅내뇈샽럖엤뗄뿍맛튪쟳폫룷늿쏅랢햹늻욽뫢뗄쎬뛜ꎬ뇘좻믡틽웰뺭볃뗄늨뚯ꆣ캪쇋쪹짧믡퓙짺닺헽뎣뷸탐ꎬ룷늿쏅뇘탫킭뗷랢햹ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ퓚퓙짺닺맽돌훐ꎬ평폚룷늿쏅벼쫵쳡룟ꆢ샍뚯짺닺싊퓶뎤뗈랽쏦뗄쯙뛈늻춬ꎬ웤랢햹듦퓚늻욽뫢뗄쿖쿳ꆣ벴쪹퓚쒳룶퓙짺닺훜웚뗄돵쪼뷗뛎ꎬ짧믡ퟜ샍뚯퓚룷룶늿쏅볤뗄럖엤뇈뷏욽뫢ꎬ뺭맽튻뚨쪱웚랢햹뫳ꎬ헢훖욽뫢튲믡놻웆뮵ꎬ탨튪훘탂뗷헻룷늿쏅랢햹뗄뇈샽뫍쯙뛈ꎬ뇭쿖캪쿠맘쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ꆣ힡햬튵ퟷ캪랿뗘닺튵뗄튻룶훘튪쇬폲ꎬ웤랢햹맦쒣뫍쯙뛈뇘탫폫웤쯼닺튵늿쏅ꎬ쳘뇰쫇횧독웤랢햹뗄믹뒡탔탐튵뫍헻룶맺쏱뺭볃뗄랢햹맦쒣뫍쯙뛈쿠쫊펦ꆣ45
죧맻힡햬튵뗄랢햹뎬돶쇋믹뒡탐튵뫍맺쏱뺭볃뗄돐쫜쓜솦ꎬ춨맽늨뚯뗄탎쪽뗷헻웤랢햹맦쒣뫍쯙뛈뻍돉캪뇘좻ꆣ컞싛쫇ퟔ랢뗷헻뮹쫇놻웈뗷헻ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡헽쫇퓚늻뛏뗷헻훐쪵쿖ퟔ짭뗄붡뾵랢햹ꆣ뻟쳥살쮵ꎬ컒맺돇쫐힡햬튵뗄랢햹쫜헻룶맺쏱뺭볃뗄훆풼훷튪뇭쿖퓚틔쿂벸룶랽쏦ꎺꋙ돇쫐힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵ퟔ짭랢햹탨튪럾컱ꆢ쓜풴ꆢ붻춨ꆢ튱뷰ꆢ믺킵ꆢ붨닄ꆢ뮯릤ꆢ쟡릤뗈훚뛠탐튵뗄횧돖ꎬ늻쓜췑샫돇쫐맺쏱뺭볃랢햹뗄헻쳥쮮욽ꎻꋚ힡햬쫐뎡볛룱뗄늨뚯ꆢ쿺쫛뗄췺쪢믲훍뮺ꎬ횱뷓쫜힡햬탨쟳솿뗄훆풼ꎬ뛸컒맺돇쫐힡햬탨쟳솿ힴ뿶폫맺볒뫍돇쫐헻쳥뺭볃탎쫆쏜쟐쿠맘ꎻꋛ힡햬폫랿뗘닺뾪랢튻냣탨튪듳솿뗄뷰횧돖ꎬ뷰살풴훷튪쫇틸탐듻뿮ꎬ쫜뷰죚튵뛔힡햬폫랿뗘닺횧돖뛈뗄훆풼ꎬ뛸뷰죚튵뗄죚헾닟폖폫맺쏱뺭볃퓋탐ힴ뿶뫍맺볒뷰죚헾닟쏜쟐쿠맘ꆣ뛸쟒힡햬캻훃뗄만뚨탔떼훂늻쓜믘뇜맺볒뫍뗘쟸맺쏱뺭볃늨뚯뗄펰쿬ꎬ틲듋ꎬ튻떩맺쏱뺭볃랢짺늨뚯ꎬ쫗떱웤돥뗄쫇틽웰힡햬폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ꆣ춬퇹ꎬ평폚힡햬폫랿뗘닺퓚맺쏱뺭볃훐뗄쳘쫢뗘캻뫍ퟷ폃ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯뛔맺쏱뺭볃뗄늨뚯튵튲뻟폐훘듳펰쿬ꎬ뇭쿖캪틔쿂솽룶랽쏦ꎺ튻쫇힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯틽웰폫힡햬튵잰뫳쿠맘뗄룷닺튵뗄볛룱늨뚯ꎬퟮ훕듸뚯헻룶맺쏱뺭볃뗄늨뚯ꎬ돉캪뫪맛뺭볃늨뚯뗄떼틲ꎻ뛾쫇힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯뛔맺쏱뺭볃늨뚯폐췆늨훺삽뗄럅듳ퟷ폃ꎬ쓜릻볓뻧틑뺭돶쿖뗄뺭볃늨뚯뗄돌뛈ꆣퟜ횮ꎬ돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯폫맺볒뫍돇쫐뺭볃늨뚯쫇뷴쏜쿠솬뗄ꎬ쫇돇쫐맺쏱뺭볃늨뚯뗄훘튪늿럖ꎬ쯼볈쫇뺭볃늨뚯뗄뷡맻ꎬ튲쫇뺭볃톭뮷늨뚯뗄뚯틲ꆣꎨ2ꎩ탄샭쮵쯼잿뗷탄샭틲쯘뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ룃맛뗣죏캪쯹폐뗄뺭볃탐캪뚼틔죋샠쯹뻟폐뗄쒳훖탄샭ힴ첬캪틀뻝ꆣ퓚짌욷힡햬뺭볃믮뚯뗄삩헅ꆢ쫕쯵맽돌훐ꎬ볈폐컯훊탔풭틲ꎬ폖폐탄샭ힴ첬뗄풭틲ꎬ벴죋쏇뛔캴살짌욷힡햬뺭볃ힴ뿶뾴램뗄뇤뚯ꆣ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄붻틗훷쳥쫇죋ꎬ웤탄샭믮뚯뛔쫐뎡붻틗탐캪폐훘튪뗄펰쿬ꆣ죋뗄탄샭ힴ첬폐샖맛ꆢ폐놯맛ꎬ쟩탷뗄늨뚯펰쿬떽힡햬붻틗ꎬ떼훂쫐뎡랢짺늨뚯ꎬ헢튻뗣퓚힡햬쫐뎡뗄춶믺떱훐뇭쿖뗃룼캪쏷쿔ꆣ탄샭틲쯘뛔힡햬뺭볃늨뚯뗄펰쿬룼뛠뗘뇭쿖퓚뛌웚뗄쫐뎡늨뚯ꆣ듓뎤웚살뾴ꎬ탅쾢릵춨풽살풽돤럖ꎬ죋뗄풤웚쫇컈뚨뗄ꎬ탄샭뇤뮯쟷폚욽컈ꎬ탄샭틲쯘뛔쫐뎡뗄뎤웚늨뚯펰쿬늻듳ꆣ탄샭틲쯘뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄펰쿬훷튪쳥쿖퓚틔쿂벸룶랽쏦ꎺ풤웚ꆣ뾭뛷쮹죏캪ꎬ풤웚뗄뿉뇤탔뎣뎣평ꆰ뚯컯뺫짱ꆱ쯹쟽뚯ꎬ맊풤웚샻죳싊뿏뚨쪮럖늻컈뚨ꎬ쫜캴살풤웚샻죳싊펰쿬뗄춶뻍돉캪뺭볃짺믮훐뗄튻룶훘튪46
늨뚯틲쯘ꆣ튻냣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ탂퓶힡햬뗄뛌웚릩룸떯탔뗍ꎬ벴늻믡쯦ퟅ볛룱뗄늨뚯뛸듳럹뛈뗘뇤뮯ꆣ듓뎤웚뛸퇔ꎬ췁뗘풴폐쿞ꎬ췁뗘뗄릩룸폫탨쟳쎬뛜죕틦춻돶ꎬ틔훂힡햬뻟폐뗖뾹춨믵엲헍뫍놣횵ꆢ퓶횵릦쓜ꆣ죧맻힡햬춶헟믲릺싲헟뛔캴살웚췻맽룟ꎬ뻍믡듌벤쇋힡햬릺싲헟냑힡햬ퟷ캪튻훖춶욷ꎬ뛸늻뷶뷶ퟷ캪쿻럑욷ꎬ뫶쫓짌욷힡햬춶뗄럧쿕ꆣ춶믺ꆣ춶믺볈쫇튻훖탐캪ꎬ틠쫇튻훖탄샭ꆣ뻟놸춶믺탄샭뗄죋췹췹믡퓚힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯훐쒲좡샻틦ꎬ뛸쯼쏇놾짭폖쫇늨뚯뗄훆퓬헟ꆣ춶믺헟튻냣춨맽싲싴슥뮨ꆢ싲뿕싴뿕ꆢ뛚믽ꆢ뎴뗘욤ꆢ훆퓬볙쿻쾢뗈쫖뛎쒲샻ꆣ뛄늩ꆣ춶믺헟췹췹뻟폐뛄늩뗄탄샭ꎬ벴쪹쫇헽맦뗄춶헟ꎬ퓚늻쓜헽좷에뛏쫐뎡탎쫆쪱ꎬ죋쏇튲뿉쓜닉좡뛄늩뗄첬뛈ꎬ뛄쏷쳬뗄힡햬쫐뎡쫇짏헇뮹쫇쿂붵ꆣ듓훚ꆣ퓚튻훖쟩탷햼훷떼뗘캻쪱ꎬ듳볒퓚탐뚯짏믡뇭쿖돶튻훂탔ꆣ헢퇹뻍믡탎돉웕뇩뗄샖맛쟩탷믲쫇놯맛쟩탷ꎬ볓뻧쇋뺭볃뗄늨뚯ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢쇷뚯늻돤럖룸힡햬탨쟳헟뗄풤닢뫍뻶닟듸살튻뚨삧쓑ꎬ떫헢캪힡햬뾪랢짌뗄듙쿺믮뚯쳡릩쇋쒳훖뇣샻ꎬ벴뾪랢짌춨맽맣룦듙쿺쫖뛎ꎬ펪퓬룃뗘뛎힡햬쫐뎡탨쟳헽췺뗄죋웸ꎬ쪹랿컝뗄릺싲헟퓚튻훖듓훚뗄탄샭횧엤쿂췪돉힡햬붻틗믮뚯ꎬ싺ퟣ튻훖탄샭짏뗄춶탨쟳ꆣ뷄탒ꆣ춶죋퓚힡햬쫐뎡뒦폚뿱죈쪱ꎬ틑뺭풤볆떽쫐뎡붫튪믘뗷ꎬ떫쫇쯻뮹튪돥뷸좥ꎬ웳춼샌좡ퟮ뫳뗄샻틦ꆣ퓚쫐뎡뾪쪼쏷쿔쿂뗸쪱ꎬ뷄탒탄샭믡쪹춶죋폌풥늻뻶ꎬ웳춼뗈듽쫐뎡랴ꆣ뿖믅ꆣ퓚힡햬쫐뎡뷸죫쿂붵웚ꎬ춶죋뫜죝틗평폚맽뛈놯맛뛸쿝죫뿖믅ꆣ뿖믅쪹춶죋쪧좥샭탔ꎬ듳솿엗쫛ꎬ캩뿖실뫳뛸퓢쫜룼듳뗄쯰쪧ꆣ뿖믅뗄탄샭볓짏듓훚탐캪ꎬ쪹뗃힡햬쫐뎡쿝죫뻧쇒뗄쮥췋뫍맽뛈뗄쿴쳵ꆣ힡햬뾪랢춶뗄붨짨웚뎤ꆣ벴듓춶뻶닟ꆢ쪩릤붨퓬ꆢ뾢릤퇩쫕떽랿컝뗄쿺쫛쪹폃쯹탨튪뗄쪱볤뎤ꎬ뎤쪱볤뛎훐쯹짦벰뗄틲쯘뗄늻좷뚨탔튲믡퓶볓ꎬ평듋퓶볓힡햬뾪랢뗄럧쿕ꎻ퓚춶붨짨웚쓚ꎬ냩쯦믽샛쯹랢짺뗄틸탐탅폃엲헍ꎬ믡닺짺튻룶퓚힡햬쿻럑욷닺솿쎻폐믲뷏짙퓶뎤쟩탎쿂뗄릺싲솦맽뛈퓶뎤ꎬ헢튻맽쪣뗄릺싲솦믡떼훂볛룱쳡룟ꎬ쪹뾪랢짌퓚뛔랿컝쪵볊탨쟳뗄에뛏짏랢짺듭뻵ꆣ헢훖듭뻵샛볓뗄ퟮ훕뷡맻쫇힡햬뗄짺닺맽쪣ꆣ틔짏탄샭ퟷ폃죝틗쪹죋닺짺맽뛈놯맛쟩탷믲샖맛쟩탷ꆣ퓚뺭볃삩헅쪱웚ꎬ춶헟쫜샖맛쟩탷횧엤ꎬ췹췹맽룟맀볆힡햬뗄쿺쫛솿뫍쿺쫛볛룱ꎬ듓뛸듳솿춶죫놾ꎬ탎돉춶믲춶믺탨쟳ꎬ쪹힡햬쫐뎡뷸튻늽삩헅ꆣ퓚쫕쯵쪱웚ꎬ쫐뎡뗍쏔ꎬ퓚놯맛쟩탷뗄횧엤쿂ꎬ춶헟맽뗍맀볆쿺쫛솿뫍쿺쫛볛룱ꎬ믲돖랿맛췻ꎬ뗈듽쪱믺ꎬ믲붵볛쿺쫛ꎻ뛔힡햬탨쟳헟뛸퇔ꎬ릺랿쫇튻뇊듳춶ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡폐맘뿕훃싊퓶볓뫍붵볛쟷쫆뗄탅쾢ꎬ쪹뗃쪵볊뗄힡햬쿻럑헟죏캪힡햬뮹폐뷏듳뗄붵볛뿕볤ꎬ47
틔훂폐킧탨쟳뷸튻늽복짙ꎬ쫐뎡뗍쏔뷸튻늽싻퇓ꆣ헢훖놯맛쟩탷믲샖맛쟩탷퓚쫐뎡짏쿠뮥뒫좾ꆢ럅듳ꎬ늢탎돉솬쯸랴펳ꎬ볓뻧쇋짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꆣꎨ3ꎩ헾닟쮵헾닟쫇헾훎쪵쿖뗄훘튪쫖뛎ꆣ헾닟늨뚯풴폚컷랽뗄헾훎훜웚톧쮵ꎬ벴뺭볃뗄뷡맻쫇헾뢮헾벨뗄훘튪뇪횾ꎬ평듋ꎬ횴헾떳퓚웤훜웚탔뗄듳톡훐ꎬ캪쇋믱뗃솬죎닉좡훘듳뗄헾훎뻶닟ꎬ듓뛸틽웰뺭볃뗄훜웚늨뚯ꆣ헾훎훜웚늻뷶퓚뛠떳훆맺볒듦퓚ꎬ뛸쟒퓚쪵탐볆뮮뺭볃쳥훆뗄튻떳횴헾뗄맺볒튲듦퓚ꆣ헾훎훜웚톧엉죏캪ꎬ잰[42]쯕솪뫍뚫얷맺볒뗄뺭볃훜웚늨뚯뗄훷튪풭틲쫇평헾훎뇤뚯퓬돉뗄ꆣ쯤좻ꎬ컒맺뗄헾훎쒿뇪춬컷랽맺볒쿠뇈폐ퟅ룹놾뗄쟸뇰ꎬ떫평폚컒맺헾뢮뛔뺭볃믮뚯룉풤뫍뿘훆쓜솦잿ꎬ틲뛸헾닟틲쯘뛔뺭볃늨뚯펰쿬짵훁룼듳ꎬ뷼벸쓪뾪쪼쪵쪩ꆰ헾웳럖뾪ꆱꆢꆰ헾쫂럖뾪ꆱ틔살ꎬ헾뢮뛔뺭볃뗄룉풤훰늽복짙ꆣ맺볒뫪맛헾닟뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬쳥쿖퓚횱뷓틽떼힡햬쫐뎡쿻럑뛔쿳뫍릩룸닺욷뗄뇤뮯랽쏦ꆣ듓쿻럑뛔쿳뗄뇤뮯뾴ꎬ퓚쪵탐힡랿럖엤믵뇒뮯횮잰ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄훷튪쿻럑뛔쿳쫇벯췅ꎬ뛸벯췅쿻럑뛔쫐뎡볛룱늢늻쏴룐ꆣ쯦ퟅ힡랿훆뛈룄룯뗄짮죫뫍힡랿럖엤믵뇒뮯헾닟뗄췆탐ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡짏뗄훷튪쿻럑뛔쿳뮯캪웕춨뻓쏱ꆣ듓릩룸닺욷뗄뇤뮯뾴ꎬ1995 쓪ꎬ캪쇋볓뿬힡랿훆뛈룄룯ꎬ맺볒춨맽뗷헻랿뗘닺춶헾닟틽떼랿뗘닺뾪랢웳튵듓떥뒿뾪랢룟떵짌욷랿ꎬ쿲닎폫뻉쟸룄퓬ꆢ뾪랢쓚쿺짌욷힡햬뗄붨짨ꆣ뛔뒦폚맬쪱웚뗄훐맺살쮵ꎬ헾뢮늻떫쫇뺭볃쳥훆룄룯뗄췆뚯헟뫍뺭볃훆뛈뇤잨뗄릩룸헟ꎬ춬쪱뮹쫇닺튵헾닟뗄훆뚨헟뫍뫪맛뺭볃뗄뗷뿘헟ꆣ듓닺튵맜샭뷇뛈뛸퇔ꎬ퓚늻췪좫뺺헹뫍늻췪좫뾪럅뗄힡햬쫐뎡짏ꎬ헫뛔쫐뎡쪧쇩뛸뷸탐뗄뫪맛닺튵뗷뿘튻떩돶쿖쪧컳ꎬ튲믡탎돉뛔힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐뗄룉죅폫돥믷ꆣ웤듎ꎬ듓쳥훆룄룯뷇뛈뛸퇔ꎬ튲뿉틔뾴떽헾뢮탐캪뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚펰쿬힡햬릩쟳맘쾵뗄룷훖틲쯘훐ꎬ폫힡햬쫐뎡폐맘뗄뺭볃쳥훆폫맜샭훆뛈튲랢믓ퟅ쪮럖훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ쳘뇰쫇뛔뒦폚뺭볃쳥훆맬쪱웚뗄훐맺뛸퇔ꎬ쳥훆틲쯘뛔힡햬릩쟳맘쾵뇤뚯뗄펰쿬쪮럖쏷쿔ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ퓚뺭볃삩헅헾닟폫뺭볃쫕쯵헾닟뗄쿠뮥붻쳦뇤뚯ퟷ폃쿂ꎬ쪹뗃맬쪱웚뗄훐맺힡햬쫐뎡튲뻟폐쏷쿔뗄헾닟훜웚쳘헷ꎬ헾닟틲쯘ퟷ캪뺭볃훜웚뗄췢늿돥믷솦솿뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯랢믓ퟅ훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣꎨ4ꎩ춶쮵힡햬늻뷶쫇짺믮쇏뫍쿻럑욷ꎬ춬쪱튲쫇쿭쫜쇏뫍랢햹쇏ꎬ퓚쿖듺뺭볃훐ꎬ쯼뮹쫇훘튪뗄춶욷ꆣ평폚쯼뻟폐춶욷뗄쳘헷ꎬ웤쫐뎡볛룱뗄늨뚯뎣뎣쿱[43]뷰죚닺튻퇹닺짺뻧쇒뗄늨뚯ꆣ떫힡햬뻟폐믹놾뗄볛횵ꎬ쫇쪵컯놾뫍탩쓢놾뗄뢴뫏쳥ꎬ뻟폐쪵컯놾뫍탩쓢놾뗄쮫훘쫴탔ꎬ헢쯤폫뷰죚놾횮볤듦퓚닮틬ꎬ떫쯼쏇횮볤뗄릲춬뗣뻍쫇뚼뻟늨뚯탔ꆣ돖춶쮵뗄톧헟죏캪ꎺ춶늨뚯쫇컒48
맺힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄횱뷓풭틲ꆣ춶탐캪ꎬ폈웤쫇춶폚랿뗘닺ꎬ평폚뻟폐뫜잿뗄풤웚탔ꎬ틲뛸죝틗랢짺늨뚯ꆣ떱랿뗘닺풤웚짏짽쪱ꎬ춶믡톸쯙퓶볓ꎬ뛸떱랿뗘닺풤웚쿂붵쪱ꎬ춶뻍믡벱뻧복짙ꆣ뛔힡햬춶ꎬ볈뻶뚨쇋힡햬벰힡햬폃뗘릩룸ꎬ폖탎돉힡햬쫐뎡탨쟳ꎬ틲듋ꎬ춶늨뚯듓릩룸뫍탨쟳솽룶랽쏦듸뚯힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꆣ퓚힡햬춶뗄뷰훐ꎬ튻늿럖살ퟔ폚ퟔ폐뷰ꎬ쇭튻늿럖살ퟔ폚듻뿮ꆣ뛸힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯폖펰쿬틸탐탅듻맦쒣ꆣ듓뷨뿮죋뗄뷇뛈뾴,힡햬볛룱뇤뮯뛔힡뮧뿉맛닢닆뢻뫍뷨듻쓜솦폐뻞듳펰쿬ꎬ폕떼쯻쏇룄뇤뷨뿮볆뮮뫍탅듻탨쟳ꆣ듓틸탐뗄뷇뛈뾴ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯늻뷶횱뷓펰쿬틸탐뗄듻뿮솿ꎬ뛸쟒펰쿬힡햬닺뗖톺듻뿮뗄[44]낲좫탔ꆣ붨훾뾪랢듻뿮쫇틸탐듻뿮훐ퟮꆰ쮳훜웚ꆱ뫍ퟮ죝틗늨뚯뗄늿럖ꆣ떱힡햬볛룱뫜룟쪱ꎬ틸탐풸틢럅쯉듻뿮쳵볾늢쳡릩룼뛠뗄듻뿮ꎬ닺짺쇋튻룶쪹랿뗘닺뫍탅듻훜웚쏜쟐맘솪뗄뒫능믺훆ꆣ춨맽뷰죚볓쯙웷믺훆ꎬ힡햬볛룱폫틸탐탅듻횮볤뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃믡랢짺뷸튻늽뗄늹돤킧펦ꆣ힡햬볛룱뗄짏헇쳡룟쇋힡햬뗖톺듻뿮뗄쫐횵ꎬ퓶볓힡햬탅듻릩룸ꎬ떼훂힡햬볛룱뗄뷸튻늽짏헇ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ죧맻볛룱뾪쪼쿂붵ꎬ쓇쎴ꎬ쿠뮥늹돤킧펦뗄ퟷ폃믺훆쿠랴ꆣ웤듎ꎬ틸탐탅듻뿉틔춨맽쇷뚯탔킧펦펰쿬힡햬볛룱ꆣ탅듻뿉뗃탔뫍듻뿮첬뛈뗄뇤뮯뛔힡햬탨쟳뫍탂붨훾뗄춶뻶닟폐쿠떱듳뗄펰쿬ꎬퟮ훕떼훂힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꆣ힡햬내뷒듻뿮듌벤쇋탨쟳ꎬ삭짽힡햬볛룱ꎻ뛸힡햬뾪랢듻뿮듌벤쇋릩룸ꎬ붵뗍힡햬볛룱ꆣ평폚힡햬릩쟳떯탔뻟폐늻뛔돆탔ꎬ벴릩룸떯탔킡ꎬ뛸탨쟳떯탔듳ꎬ뫳헟ퟷ폃튪뇈잰헟뺭맽룼뎤쪱볤닅쓜쳥쿖퓚볛룱훐ꆣꎨ5ꎩ릩탨쎬뛜쮵릩탨쎬뛜쮵죏캪ꎺ랿뗘닺쫐뎡릩룸뫍탨쟳뗄쎬뛜쫇랿뗘닺뺭볃늨뚯뗄쓚퓚풭틲ꎬ퓚짌욷뺭볃뫍짧믡뮯듳짺닺쳵볾쿂ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡릩룸뫍탨쟳뗄쎬뛜튲쫇힡햬뺭볃늨뚯뗄풭틲횮튻ꆣ늻뚯닺뺭볃톧죏캪ꎬ퓚튻냣쫐뎡뺭볃잰쳡쿂ꎬ평늻뚯닺ퟜ릩룸폫ퟜ탨쟳뗄늨뚯벰쿠뮥ퟷ폃뿉닺짺훜웚탔늻뚯닺뺭볃늨뚯ꆣ힡햬릩룸폫탨쟳쫇쫐뎡훐뺭뎣뇤뚯뗄틲쯘ꆣ힡햬릩룸ퟜ솿평폚쫜벼쫵ꆢ샍뚯ꆢ뷰ꆢ맜샭뗈쳵볾뗄뇤뮯뛸늻뛏랢짺삩헅믲쫕쯵뗄퓋탐ꎻ퓚듋춬쪱ꎬ힡햬탨쟳ퟜ솿튲평폚쫜훖훖틲쯘뗄펰쿬뛸랢짺뇤뮯ꎬ퓙볓짏힡햬릩룸뫍탨쟳뇤뮯뚼뻧쇒ꎬ틲듋힡햬릩룸ퟜ솿폫탨쟳ퟜ솿욽뫢쫇퓝쪱뗄ꎬ늻욽뫢쫇뺭뎣뗄ꆣ벴쪹ퟜ솿욽뫢쇋ꎬ뷡릹튲뫜쓑욽뫢ꎬ틲캪짌욷힡햬뛠훖뛠퇹ꎬ룷훖짌욷힡햬릩룸솿ꆢ탨쟳솿뚼퓚늻뛏뇤뮯ꆣ횻폐힡햬릩룸뫍탨쟳퓚ퟜ솿뫍뷡릹짏춬쪱욽뫢ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡닅쓜뿬쯙랢햹ꎬ짌욷힡햬ퟜ솿뫍뷡릹죎뫎튻랽쏦돶쿖퇏훘쪧뫢ꎬ힡햬뺭볃뻍튪뷸탐뗷헻ꎬ틲듋힡햬릩쟳맘쾵뗄뇤뮯ꎬ뇘좻믡틽웰힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ꆣꎨ6ꎩ췢짺돥믷쮵49
돖룃맛뗣뗄톧헟죏캪ꎺ힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯쫇평췢짺뇤솿쯹훂ꎬ헢킩췢늿돥믷볈뿉틔쫇살ퟔ탨쟳랽쏦ꎬ죧쫕죫ꆢ샻싊뫍죋뿚틲쯘뗄뇤뮯ꎬ튲뿉틔쫇살ퟔ릩룸랽쏦ꎬ죧샍뚯솦ꆢ붨훾돉놾틔벰췁뗘뾪랢뗄쿞훆랢짺뇤뮯뗈ꆣ퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎺ뷏룟뗄뾪랢돉놾뫍헦쪵죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫벰뷏뗍뗄쿻럑헟릺싲돉놾믡떼훂랿뗘닺헦쪵볛룱퇏훘욫[45]샫뻹뫢볛룱쮮욽ꎬ췢짺뇤솿뗄뇤뮯믡웰떽볓뻧믲ꆰ욽ꆱ랿뗘닺헦쪵볛룱늨뚯뗄킧맻ꎬ죧맻뫪맛뗷뿘뗄쒿뇪쫇캬돖랿뗘닺헦쪵볛룱퓚뻹뫢볛룱뢽뷼욽컈퓋탐ꎬ쓇쎴붵뗍뾪랢돉놾ꆢ퓶볓쿻럑헟릺싲돉놾퓲뿉쓜쫇뿉탐뗄쫖뛎ꆣ 짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯펰쿬틲쯘뗄쫽톧쒣탍 튻냣쒣탍펰쿬힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄틲쯘돽쇋맺쏱뺭볃늨뚯ꆢ랿뗘닺춶ꆢ쳥훆ힴ뿶뗈쓚짺틲쯘ꎬ뮹폐햽헹ꆢퟔ좻퓖몦뗈췢짺뗄늨뚯폕떼틲쯘ꎨ췢짺틲쯘ꎩꎬ죧맻붫룷훖펰쿬틲쯘뾴ퟷퟔ뇤솿ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뾴ퟷ틲뇤솿ꎬ뻍뿉붨솢힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯펰쿬틲쯘뗄쫽톧쒣탍ꆣ짨짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯캪틲뇤솿Zꎬ쓚짺틲쯘뫍췢짺틲쯘캪ퟔ뇤솿XꆢYꆣ췢짺뇤솿Y튻랽쏦횱뷓펰쿬Zꎬ쇭튻랽쏦쯼뺭뎣뫍훷튪뗘춨맽펰쿬X볤뷓펰쿬Zꎬ폚쫇힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬틲쯘쒣탍뇭쪾캪ꎺZ=f[X(Y),Y] ꎨ3ꎭ1ꎩ평폚췢짺뇤솿쫇평헾훎틲쯘Pꆢ헾닟틲쯘Zcꆢퟔ좻틲쯘Zrꆢ햽헹틲쯘Zz뗈뇤솿뫏돉ꎬ폚쫇췢짺뇤솿뿉뇭쪾캪ꎺY=Y(P,Zc,Zr,Zz,...) ꎨ3ꎭ2ꎩ쓚짺뇤솿돽쫜췢짺뇤솿펰쿬췢ꎬ뮹쫜맺쏱뺭볃늨뚯Gmꆢ힡햬춶뛮Iꆢ힡햬쇬폲샍뚯솦Lꆢ힡햬놾듦솿Kꆢ벼쫵쮮욽Jsꆢ힡햬쫐뎡쓚늿뷡릹Jgꆢ힡햬ퟜ릩룸Zsꆢ힡햬ퟜ탨쟳Zdꆢ힡햬훆뛈ힴ뿶Tz뗈ퟩ돉ꎬ폚쫇ꎬ쓚짺뇤솿펦뇭쪾캪ꎺX=X[Y(P,Zc,Zr,Zz,...),Gm,I,L,K,Js,Jg,Zs,Zd,Tz] ꎨ3ꎭ3ꎩ평ꎨ3ꎭ1ꎩ훁ꎨ3ꎭ3ꎩ뿉붫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯펰쿬틲쯘뗄쫽톧쒣탍뇭쫶캪ꎺZ=Z{X[Y(P,Zc,Zr,Zz,...),Gm,I,L,K,Js,Jg,Zs,Zd,Tz],Y(P,Zc,Zr,Zz,...)} ꎨ3ꎭ4ꎩ틔짏쒣쪽훐뗄쒳킩췢짺뇤솿죧헾훎틲쯘ꆢ햽헹틲쯘ꎬ틔벰쓚짺뇤솿벼쫵쮮욽50
뗈틲쯘뇤뮯쯤좻뛔힡햬쫐뎡펰쿬뷏듳ꎬ떫쯼쏇퓚튻뚨뗄쪱웚뻟폐튻뚨뗄컈뚨탔ꎬ틲듋ꎬ놾컄붫듋샠뇤솿짨뚨캪쯹럖컶쾵춳뗄뇟뷧췢뇤솿ꆣ캪퓶볓쪵볊뗄닙ퟷ탔ꎬ뿉붫췢짺뫍쓚짺뇤솿뮮럖캪돇쫐뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿ꆢ랿뗘닺닺튵솴뇤솿뫍힡햬쫐뎡쓚짺뇤솿ꎬ붫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뾼싇캪돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄뫪맛틲쯘Hjꎬ힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵솴틲쯘REk벰짌욷힡햬쫐뎡볛솿HMi뗈뇤뮯ퟛ뫏펰쿬뗄뷡맻ꎬ쓇쎴뿉틔럖컶돶ꎺ힡햬쫐뎡뗄볛솿HMi쫜돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄뫪맛틲쯘Hj뫍힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵솴틲쯘REk뗄펰쿬ꆣ쯼뿉뇭쪾캪ꎺHMi=H(Hj,REk,...) ꎨ3ꎭ5ꎩ쪽훐ꎺHMi뇭쪾캪짌욷힡햬쫐뎡볛솿뇤솿ꎻHj캪펰쿬짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄돇쫐뫪맛틲쯘뗄벯뫏ꎬ폃쿲솿뇭쫶캪Hjꎽꎨh1,h2,...,hm)ꎬm캪뫪맛틲쯘뗄룶쫽ꎻREk캪펰쿬짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄돇쫐힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵솴틲쯘뗄벯뫏ꎬ폃쿲솿뇭쫶캪REkꎽꎨre1,re2,...,ren)ꎬn캪돇쫐힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵솴틲쯘뗄룶쫽ꆣ춬쪱뾼싇돇쫐힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵솴틲쯘튲쫜뫪맛튪쯘뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿늨뚯쫜웤쯻힡햬쫐뎡쓚짺뇤솿뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ퓲짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯뿉뇭쪾캪ꎺZ=Z[H(Hj,REk,...),REk(Hj),Hj] ꎨ3ꎭ6ꎩ짏쪽훐ꎬZ캪HMi틔췢뗄쫐뎡늨뚯뇤솿ꆣ 짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뒫떼믺샭평틔짏럖컶뿉횪ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쫇평힡햬쫐뎡뺭볃쳥쾵뗄쓚짺틲쯘뫍췢짺틲쯘쿠뮥릲춬ퟷ폃뛸탎돉ꆣ쓚짺틲쯘뗄뇤뚯ꎬ쫇평힡햬뺭볃쳥쾵놾짭쓚퓚풭틲닺짺ꎬ쓚짺틲쯘탎돉힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쓚퓚뒫떼믺훆뫍웤쓚퓚뷡릹믹뒡ꆣ췢짺틲쯘뗄뇤뚯ꎬ쫇평힡햬뺭볃쳥쾵틔췢뗄풭틲닺짺ꎬ췢짺틲쯘퓲탎돉쫐뎡늨뚯훜웚뗄췢퓚돥믷믲췢퓚쳵볾ꆣ췢짺틲쯘춨맽쓚짺틲쯘웰ퟷ폃ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯듳뚼쫇쓚퓚틲쯘폫췢짺틲쯘릲춬ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꆣ1ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쓚짺틲쯘폫쓚퓚뒫떼믺훆ꎨ1ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쓚짺틲쯘힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쓚짺틲쯘쫇횸힡햬쫐뎡뺭볃쳥쾵뗄쓚늿틲쯘ꎬ뿉럖캪펰쿬릩룸뫍탨쟳뗄솽듳샠틲쯘ꆣ펰쿬힡햬탨쟳쮮욽뗄틲쯘폖틲컯튵샠탍뗄늻춬뛸폐쯹쟸51
뇰ꎺ폫짌욷힡햬탨쟳폐맘뗄뇤솿훷튪폐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫ꆢ힡뮧맦쒣ꆢ뻓쏱쿻럑뷡릹ꆢ뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲ꆢ죋뿚퓶뎤싊뗈뇤솿ꆣ펰쿬힡햬릩룸뗄튻냣틲쯘훷튪폐힡햬뾪랢웳튵풤웚샻죳싊ꎬ췁뗘ꆢ뷰ꆢ샍솦ꆢ붨닄뗈풴뗄릩룸쓜솦ꆣ짌욷힡햬뺭볃쳥쾵뗄릩룸쓜솦퓚뛌웚쓚뿉틔닉폃짌욷힡햬뗄쪩릤ꆢ뾢릤솿믲힡햬춶쪵볊췪돉뛮뗈뇭쫶ꆣퟛ맛컒맺붨맺틔살ꆢ쳘뇰쫇랿룄틔뫳ꎬ힡햬튵톸쯙랢햹틔살ꎬ퓬돉컒맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄훷튪쓚짺틲쯘훷튪폐ꎺ힡햬춶늨뚯ꆢ힡햬쫐뎡볛룱늨뚯ꆢ맺쏱뺭볃뗄늨뚯틔벰뺭볃뻶닟뇤뮯ꆣ1985 힡햬춶늨뚯쫇컒맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄훘튪풭틲쫗쿈ꎬ듓뺭볃톧샭싛살뾴ꎬ춶탐캪뻟폐잿쓜뚯탔ꎬ뛔힡햬춶쯹탎돉뗄닺ꎬ쫇힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뗄믹놾짺닺튪쯘ꎻ춬쪱ꎬ춶폖쫇튻훖쓜릻삭뚯힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뗄ퟮ훕탨쟳ꎬ틲캪쿻럑쫇춶뗄쒿뗄뫍맩쯞ꎬ쫇춶퓶뎤뗄뚯솦ꎬ춬쪱ꎬ춶뮹쓜릻뒴퓬돶탂뗄쿻럑탨쟳ꆣ웤듎ꎬ뻍춶놾짭살뾴ꎬ튲죝틗랢짺늨뚯ꆣ헢쫇틲캪춶탐캪뻟폐뷏잿뗄풤닢탔뫍쯦믺탔ꎬ폈웤쫇춶폚힡햬ꆣ랢듯맺볒뗄뺭퇩뇭쏷ꎺ뛔힡햬뎤쿟춶죫ꎬퟸ뗘쫕ퟢꎬ쫇튻훖춶ꎻ뛌쿟뎴싲ꎬ뗍볛뷸ꎬ룟볛돶ꎬ튲쫇튻훖춶ꆣ퓚힡햬풤웚짏짽쪱ꎬ춶믡톸쯙퓶볓ꎻ뛸풤웚쿂붵쪱ꎬ춶벱뻧복짙ꆣ춶뗄ꆰ볓쯙쫽ꆱퟷ폃쪹웤힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄ퟷ폃뷏듳ꆣ컒맺평폚죵풼쫸뗄춶믺훆ꆢ늿럖춶퓰죎훷4쳥늻쏷좷틔벰춶헟뛔쫐뎡죏쪶뗄쒣뫽탔ꎬ듓뛸탎돉튻훖뛠풪뮯뗄힡햬춶돥뚯ꆣ뗚죽ꎬ힡햬춶뗄춬릹탔떼훂힡햬쾸럖쫐뎡뗄늻뻹뫢늨뚯ꆣ평폚퇫탐뗄춳튻헾닟ꎬ훂쪹룷뗘힡햬폫랿뗘닺춶벯훐랢짺퓚쒳룶쪱뛎ꎬ뫶쫓뗘쟸닮틬ꆣ힡햬춶뗄춬릹탔늻뷶뇭쿖캪힡햬춶쪱볤뗄춬릹ꎬ뛸쟒뇭쿖캪힡햬쪹폃릦쓜샠뇰뗄춬릹ꎬ힡햬훊솿뫍엤쳗뮷뺳뗄춬릹ꎬ쎻폐뾼싇뛠닣듎뗄힡햬탨쟳ꆣ헢훖“웫늽ퟟ”ꆢꆰ튻죋뗃늡ꎬ좫볒돔튩ꆱ뗄춶탐캪볓듳쇋힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄럹뛈ꆣퟮ뫳ꎬ듓춶폫쫐뎡뗄맘쾵살뾴ꎬ힡햬춶늨뚯붫횱뷓떼훂힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ꆣ뛔힡햬춶ꎬ볈뻶뚨쇋힡햬쿮쒿벰닺욷뗄릩룸ꎬ폖탎돉쇋힡햬쫐뎡탨쟳ꎬ쯼뗄늨뚯듓릩룸뫍탨쟳솽룶랽쏦듸뚯쇋힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꆣ뛸힡햬쫐뎡뗄쿠뛔캮쯵ꆢ욣죭폫힡햬춶솿뗄복짙늻컞맘쾵ꆣ뿉볻ꎬ춶늨뚯펰쿬힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹쯙뛈벰뷡릹욽뫢ꎬ듓뛸떼훂힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쪽랢햹ꆣꋚ짌욷힡햬뗄폐킧탨쟳늻ퟣ쫇힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄떼틲 4 튻냣뗘ꎬ뷰죚믺릹럅듻룸랿뗘닺튵뗄뿮쿮틔늻뎬맽ퟜ럅듻뛮뗄10%캪틋ꆣ2003쓪ꆫ2005쓪돵ꎬ힡햬폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡퓚늿럖돇쫐틑돊“죈”뗄첬쫆ꎬ좻뛸ꎬ틸탐뗄탅폃뮹퓚늻뛏삩헅ꎬ랿뗘닺뗄듻뿮뛮죔퓚늻뛏퓶뎤ꎻ퓚1992—1993쓪랿뗘닺춶맽죈쪱ꎬ뻸듳뛠쫽춶헟캪맺폐웳튵믲뷰살풴폚맺폐틸탐ꆣ평폚맺폐웳튵뫍맺폐틸탐듺샭죋뗄뗀뗂럧쿕ꎬ뛔춶쎻폐탎돉폐킧뗄샻틦풼쫸믺훆ꎬ틔벰뛔힡햬폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄에쪶쓜솦늻릻ꎬ떼훂캥맦춶늻횹ꆣ52
맽뛈뗄랿뗘닺춶ꎬ죧맻쎻폐탎돉ퟣ릻뗄폐킧탨쟳ꎬ쫆뇘떼훂힡햬뺭볃평삩헅캪쫕쯵ꆣ짌욷힡햬폐킧탨쟳늻ퟣ쫇뛠랽쏦풭틲틽웰뗄ꎬ쫗쿈ꎬ랿볛쫕죫뇈늻뫏샭ꆣ컒맺튻킩돇쫐죧짏몣ꆢ쓾늨ꆢ몼훝뗈랿볛룟ꎬ맣듳뻓쏱컞쓜솦릺싲힡랿ꆣ웤듎ꎬ힡랿훆뛈룄룯폐튻룶톭탲붥뷸뗄맽돌ꆣ듓짏룶쫀볍80쓪듺훐웚뗄쳡ퟢ랢늹쳹ꎬ떽뷱쳬뗄믵뇒뮯럖랿ꎬ힡랿탨쟳헟퓚탄샭짏폐튻룶쫊펦뗄맽돌ꆣ웤죽ꎬ짧믡뢣샻놣헏훆뛈늻췪짆ꎬ돇쫐뻓쏱퓚풤웚뗄쫕죫뫍횧돶탄훐컞뗗뗄잰쳡쿂ꎬ늻뗃늻듦잮틔놸뫳폃ꆣ웤쯄ꎬ힡랿훊솿ꆢ욷훊뫍뮷뺳훊솿폐듽폚쳡룟ꎬ힡햬뗄낲좫ꆢ짧믡럾컱뗈짨쪩폐듽뷸튻늽룄짆ꆣꋛ맺쏱뺭볃늨뚯쫇힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄믹놾풭틲횮튻듓뺭볃퓶뎤믹뒡뾴ꎬ1992쓪뗄힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵톸쯙랢햹ꎬ훷튪쫇잰죽쓪훎샭헻뛙믽뻛뗄쓜솿ꎬ캪헻룶맺쏱뺭볃뗄룟쯙뛈퓶뎤쳡릩쇋뷏뫃뗄컯훊쳵볾ꎺ튻랽쏦ꎬ얩튵솬쓪럡쫕ꎬ췢쎳쮳닮쏷쿔퓶볓ꎬ뒢탮듳럹뛈짏짽ꎬ쓜풴ꆢ풭닄쇏뗈믹뒡닺튵릩룸쓜솦폐뷏듳쳡룟ꎬ볓짏솬탸벸쓪짧믡뛔힡햬뗄폐킧탨쟳늻ퟣꎬ릤튵짺닺쓜솦샻폃싊뗍쿂ꎬ퓶닺잱솦듳ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ잰벸쓪뺭볃랢햹쿠뛔뮺싾ꎬ1992쓪헽뒦퓚뺭볃톭뮷뗄짏짽웚ꎬ뿍맛짏듦퓚ퟅ헻룶맺쏱뺭볃뷏뿬퓶뎤뗄맟탔ꎬ뻝춳볆쫽ퟖ뇭쏷ꎬ1992쓪좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뇈1991쓪퓶뎤%ꎬ1993쓪좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뇈1992쓪퓶뎤%ꆣ헽쫇맺쏱뺭볃뷏뿬뗄랢햹쯙뛈ꎬ듙뷸쇋돇쫐뺭볃ꆢ짧믡뗄랢햹뫍죋쏱짺믮쮮욽뗄쳡룟ꎬ죋쏇뛔힡햬뗄탨쟳폫죕뻣퓶ꎬ캪힡햬쫐뎡뗄톸쯙삩헅쳡릩쇋랢햹뗄맬벣뫍뿕볤ꆣ폫듋쿠쫊펦ꎬ돶쿖쇋1992쓪훁1993쓪뗄힡햬듳춶ꆢ듳뾪랢ꆢ듳뺺헹뗄풾퓶첬쫆ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ평폚떱쪱컒맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤쫇틔룟춶죫ꆢ룟쿻뫄캪듺볛ꎬ쓜풴ꆢ붻춨뗈믹뒡늿쏅틲볛룱첫뗍ꆢ뷰늻ퟣ뫍맜샭늻떱ꎬ틲뛸뎤웚뷴헅뗄욿뺱탍뗄뺭볃퓶뎤뗄삧뺳캴쏷쿔룄짆ꎬ듓뫪맛쏦짏뾴ꎬ뷰릩펦죔뫜뷴헅ꆣ틲듋ꎬ쎿떱맺쏱뺭볃랢햹뷸죫룟헇돵웚쪱ꎬퟜ쫇뛔릩룸늻ퟣ뗄쓜풴ꆢ붻춨쳡돶룼듳뗄탨쟳ꎬ뛸떱뺭볃퓶뎤뷸죫룟럥쓪럝쪱ꎬ평폚룟닺돶쯹튪쟳뗄룟춶죫뫍룟쿻럑ꎬ쓜풴뫍붻춨뇘좻릩룸늻ퟣꎬ뷰춶죫맋듋쪧뇋ꎬ뺭볃뇈샽맘쾵쪧뗷ꎬ룟쯙퓶뎤쓑틔캬돖ꆣ퓙평폚힡햬뺭펪뷰탨쟳솿듳ꎬ퓋ퟷ뢴퓓ꆢ춶죫닺돶훜웚뎤ꎬ닺욷만뚨쟒믘놨싽ꎬ폈웤퓚힡햬쫐뎡뒦폚뗍마쪱ꎬ웤붨짨럇뎣삧쓑ꎬ뺭펪힡햬럧쿕듳ꎬ훆풼틲쯘뛠ꆣ퓚1993쓪6ꆪ7퓂볤ꎬ떱훐퇫튻쾵쇐뫪맛뗷뿘헾닟쿠볌돶첨ꎬ쳘뇰쫇얡뷴뷰죚헢룶쇺춷ꆢ퇏룱뿘훆뷰탅듻쪱ꎬ컒맺힡햬쫐뎡뫜뿬뻍평톸쯙랢햹쿲쮥췋훍뮺ꎬ폫맺쏱뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈뫍좫짧믡만뚨닺춶쯙뛈쿠뛔쿂붵쿠솪쾵ꎬ1994짏냫쓪ꎬ좫맺힡햬춶싊뷶캪%ꎬ풶뗍폚1993쓪짏냫쓪뗄%ꆣ듓뛸횤쏷쇋힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹폫뫪맛뺭볃탎쫆벰헻룶맺쏱뺭볃랢햹횱뷓쿠맘뗄맦싉ꆣ뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐폐뿬쯙폫훍뮺붻쳦돶쿖뗄훜웚탔쳘뗣ꎬ뻶뚨쇋힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ꆣ53
ꋜ헾닟뇤뮯쫇힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄훷튪풭틲듓횱맛살뾴ꎬ훐맺힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄듟뮯볁횮튻쫇췢늿돥믷ꆪ헾닟늨뚯ꎬ헾닟틲쯘쫇듓뺭볃쾵춳틔췢좥톰헒뺭볃늨뚯뗄돉틲ꆣ좻뛸죧닆헾ꆢ쮰쫕ꆢ믵뇒뗈헾닟뗄훆뚨늻쫇욾뿕쿖쿳ꎬ뛸쫇룹뻝튻뚨쪱웚뗄힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐ힴ뿶닉좡뗄듫쪩뫍뛔닟ꆣ뺭맽짮쮼쫬싇돶첨뗄죎뫎튻쿮뺭볃헾닟ꎬ뇘좻믡펰쿬볒춥뫍웳튵뛔헾닟뗄풤웚ꎬ떱헢킩풤웚뮯캪쪵볊탐뚯쪱ꎬ놻헾닟훆뚨헟죏캪ퟮ뫃뗄헾닟췹췹뗃늻떽횴탐ꆣ헢퇹튻살ꎬꆰ뺭볃헾닟훆뚨헟뻍믡뛔쯻쏇뗄뻶뚨ퟶ돶탞룄ꎬ뷡맻좴쫇ퟮ뫃뗄헾닟놻[46]엗웺ꆱꆣ헢퇹뗄뷡맻폫웤쮵쫇뺭볃헾닟훆뚨헟뗄쒿뇪폫뻸듳뛠쫽쏱훚뗄쒿뇪늻춬쯹훂ꎬ뮹늻죧쮵쫇늻춬쪱볤뛔뺭볃헾닟뗄훆풼틲쯘늻춬쯹훂ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ헾닟틲쯘뗄늨뚯돽쇋쫜쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬틔췢ꎬ췹췹뮹쫜떽힡햬쫐뎡닎폫룷랽뗄늩?탐캪뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯훐폐늨럥ꎬ튲폐마뗘ꎬ듓뛸떼훂돇쫐뺭볃헾닟폐삩헅ꆢ튲폐뷴쯵ꆣ돇쫐뺭볃삩헅뫍뺭볃뷴쯵헾닟붻쳦뇤뚯ꎬ릹돉훐맺쳘폐뗄헾닟늨뚯맦싉ꎬ뛸쟒돇쫐뺭볃삩헅뫍뺭볃뷴쯵헾닟붻쳦폫힡햬뺭볃늨뚯뗄훜웚믹놾튻훂ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ뫪맛뺭볃헾닟뫍힡햬헾닟뗄뇤뮯폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯횮볤뮥돉틲맻맘쾵ꎬ헾닟틲쯘쫇쓚짺틲쯘폫췢짺틲쯘뎣뎣붻횯튻웰뗄쫐뎡늨뚯풴ꎬ뛔컒맺힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯닺짺훘튪펰쿬ꆣ룹뻝힡햬뺭볃랢햹뗄폐맘쇏ꎬ뿉틔듓랢햹쒿뇪ꎬ헾닟쓚죝ꆢ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯펰쿬뗈랽쏦럖컶컒맺힡햬헾닟뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄펰쿬ꆣ뇭3ꎭ7 훐맺힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뗄헾닟훜웚(1979-2005)쓪럝랢햹쒿뇪헾닟쓚죝쫐뎡늨뚯펰쿬퓊탭쮽죋붨랿ꎬ돇쫐뻓쏱ퟔ탞룄쪮쓪맦뮮횸뇪ꎻ릺ퟔ붨ꎻ뾪쪼힡랿훆뛈룄1979-1983뺭볃뢴쯕뗷헻ꆢ룄룯ꆢ헻뛙룯ꆣ뗷헻닺튵뷡릹ꎬ쿂럅맜샭좨ꆣ랢늼돇붨ퟛ뫏뾪랢퓝탐냬랿뗘닺뾪랢춶뫍쿺쫛돶쿖뗚튻룶1984랢햹랿뗘닺튵램ꎬ췆탐짌욷뮯쫔뗣ꆣ룟럥럀횹쎤쒿랢햹짌욷힡볓잿짌욷랿힡햬볆뮮맜샭ꎬ1985-1987랿뗘닺랢햹퓶뎤ꎬ쯙뛈럅뮺ꆣ햬쿞훆릫폐힡랿늹쳹돶쫛ꆣ탞룄ꆶ쿜램ꆷꎬ퓊탭췁뗘엺삩듳랿뗘닺튵랢햹ꎻퟢꎻ퓚좫맺돇헲럖웚럖엺췆랿뗘닺춶뛮폫쿺쫛솿뇈짏쓪폐듳1988뷸탐힡랿훆뛈룄룯럹뛈퓶뎤ꎬ퓶뎤럹뛈캪72%뫍34%ꆣ탐힡랿훆뛈룄룯ꎻ뾪럅랿뗘닺쫐뎡ꆣ랢늼ꆶ맘폚볓잿랿뗘닺쫐뎡맜샭뗄춨횪ꆷꎬ맦랶쫐뎡탐랿뗘닺춶뫍짌욷랿쿺쫛퓶뎤럹뛈1989볓잿랿뗘닺쫐뎡맜샭캪ꎬ헻뛙쫐뎡훈탲ꎻ톹쯵만캪6%뫍11%ꎬ뇈짏쓪폐쏷쿔복짙뚨닺춶맦쒣ꎬ뷴쯵틸룹ꆣ훎샭헻뛙ꎬ듳맦쒣쟥샭퓚붨랿뗘닺뾪랢춶ퟔ1986쓪틔살쫗듎볓잿훎샭헻뛙ꎻ췆뷸쿮쒿ꎻ냤늼짮뮯웳튵뺭펪믺1990돶쿖뢺퓶뎤(-7%)ꎬ뇭쏷랿뗘닺튵쫜췁뗘쪹폃훆뛈룄룯훆룄룯뗄춨횪ꎻ뷴쯵틸룹ꆣ떽맺볒뗷뿘헾닟펰쿬뷏듳ꆣ랢늼ꆶ췁뗘맜샭램쪵쪩쳵54
샽ꆷꆣ랿뗘닺뾪랢춶뫍쿺쫛솿럖뇰뇈짏훎샭헻뛙ꎻ랿뗘닺쫐뎡붨짨맦랶랿뗘닺튵랢햹ꎻ쓪퓶뎤33%뫍18%ꎬ퓶뎤럹뛈뷏캪1991좫쏦웰늽ꎻ랿룄뾪쪼퓚좫맺짮뮯힡랿훆뛈룄룯쏷쿔ꎬ뇭쏷탂뗄튻싖랿뗘닺튵랢햹랶캧쓚좫쏦췆탐ꆣ틑뺭뾪쪼ꆣ랿뗘닺돉캪탂뗄춶죈뗣ꎬ1992쓪틽뷸췢ꎻ탻늼“훎샭헻뛙”랿뗘닺춶731틚풪ꎬ뇈짏쓪퓶뎤뷡쫸ꎻ뾪럅랿뗘닺볛룱ꎻ삩1992볓뿬랿뗘닺튵랢햹117%ꎻ랿뗘닺뾪랢웳튵췲볒ꎬ듳쫐뎡뗷뿘랶캧ꎻ쿂럅좨쫇1991쓪뗄3놶ꆣ짌욷랿볛룱욽뻹솦ꎻ랢럅뾪랢쿻럑듻뿮ꆣ캪1034풪ꎬ뇈짏쓪퓶뎤29%뾪쪼뷸탐뫪맛뗷헻ꎻ뿘훆춶맦쒣ꎬ뗷헻춶뷡릹ꎬ맦랶쫐뎡탐캪ꎬ뗷뷚랿뗘닺뺭평폚짏쓪랿뗘닺랢햹쯙뛈맽뿬뗄듸펪쫕틦ꆣ랢늼ꆶ맘폚볓잿랿뚯ꎬ랿뗘닺춶퓶뎤165%ꎬ짌욷샭쮳랿뗘닺튵ꎬ듙뷸1993뗘닺쫐뎡뫪맛맜샭ꎬ듙뷸랿랿쿺쫛뇈짏쓪퓶뎤102%ꎬ뻹듯떽랿뗘닺튵붡뾵랢햹뗘닺튵붡뾵돖탸랢햹뗄틢샺쪷ퟮ룟쮮욽ꆣ뿉틔쮵ꎬ1993쓪쫇볻ꆷ뫍ꆶ맘폚뾪햹랿뗘닺뾪랿뗘닺랢햹쯙뛈ퟮ뿬뗄튻쓪ꆣ랢뺭펪믺릹좫쏦볬닩뗄춨횪ꆷꆣ랢늼ꆶ맺컱풺맘폚볌탸볓잿뫪맛뗷뿘뾪쪼웰ퟷ폃ꎬ췁뗘뾪랢쏦만뚨닺춶뫪맛뗷뿘뗄춨믽벰랿컝탂뾪릤쏦믽뻹돊뢺퓶뎤ꎻ횪ꆷ뫍ꆶ맺컱풺맘폚짮뮯돇랿뗘닺뾪랢춶퓶뎤32%ꎬ룟쯙퓶볓잿뫪맛뗷뿘ꎬ짮뮯헲힡랿훆뛈룄룯뗄뻶뚨ꆷꎻ1994뎤뗄쫆춷놻뛴훆ꆣ랿뗘닺웳튵평쎤힡랿훆뛈룄룯뗷뿘ꆢ쿻뮯ꆢ컈뚨뗄랢햹뷗쒿쯦듓훰늽떽샭훇닙ퟷꎬ떫평폚폐뛎ꎻ뾪햹랿뗘닺뾪랢뺭펪믺킧탨쟳폫폐킧릩룸볤듦퓚ퟅ뷏듳쎬릹좫쏦볬닩ꎻ헻뛙뷰죚훈뛜ꎬ훂쪹랿뗘닺쫐뎡뻖늿돶쿖훍쿺ꆣ탲ꆣ랿뗘닺춶맦쒣컞탲엲헍ꆡ틑뗃떽볓잿랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄뫪맛맜폐킧뿘훆ꎬ퓶뎤럹뛈23%ꎬ떫릩펦샭ꎻ냤늼ꆶ랿뗘닺맜샭램ꆷꎬ1995맦랶랿뗘닺쫐뎡맦쒣죔좻욫듳ꆣ짌욷랿쿺쫛쫐뎡늻ꆶ퓶횵쮰램ꆷꎻ헻뛙뷰죚훈뺰웸ꎬ폐킧탨쟳캮쯵ꎬ짌욷랿뿕훃탲ꎻ뾪쪼쪵쪩낲뻓릤돌ꆣ퇏훘ꆣ탂뾪릤쿮쒿뗃떽폐킧뿘훆ꎬ춶뷡릹쟷폚뫏샭ꎬ뿕훃쏦믽퓶볓ꆣ짌욷좫쏦췆탐힡랿릫믽뷰훆뛈ꎻퟢ뷰룄룯뫍릫폐힡랿돶쫛폐랿볛룱돖탸퓶뎤ꎬ떫퓶뎤럹뛈믘실ꎻ1996뫪맛훎샭쇋탂뗄뷸햹ꎻ헾닟탔뗖톺듻룶죋릺싲짌욷힡햬뗄뇈샽볓듳ꎻ놾뿮훆뛈뾪쪼붨솢ꎻ낲뻓릤돌쓪랿뗘닺춶뫍쿺쫛뛮퓶뎤럹뛈럖쮳샻췆뷸ꆣ뇰캪2%ꆢ13%ꎬ랢햹쯙뛈쏷쿔럅뮺ꎬ쮵쏷뫪맛훎샭헾닟쫕킧쏷쿔ꆣ랿뗘닺뾪랢춶뇈짏쓪웚뢺퓶뎤%ꎬ춶뷡릹틔힡햬캪훷ꎻ룶쪵탐쫊뛈듓뷴뗄닆헾헾닟뫍1997쫊뛈듓뷴죋릺싲솦늻뛏퓶잿ꆣ뿕훃짌욷랿죔믵뇒헾닟ꆣ붫삧죅랿뗘닺쫐뎡ꆣ짌욷랿볛룱퓶럹쟷뮺ꎬ욽뻹쫛볛2017풪ꆣ맺컱풺쿂랢쇋ꆶ맘폚뷸튻늽듓1998쓪쿂냫쓪웰춣횹힡랿쪵컯럖짮뮯돇헲힡랿훆뛈룄룯ꎬ볓엤ꎬ훰늽쪵탐힡랿럖엤믵뇒뮯ꎻ랿뿬힡랿붨짨뗄춨횪ꆷꎨ맺랢엠폽힡햬쫐뎡ꎬ듙뷸뗘닺뾪랢뷰뷡릹뗃떽뗷헻ꎻ쪵쪩1998[1998]23뫅ꎩꎬ튪쟳뗷헻힡힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹쇋믽벫뗄쮰쫕헾닟뫍힡랿뷰죚헾랿춶뷡릹ꎬ훘뗣랢햹뺭볃닟ꎬ폐킧뗘웴뚯쇋뻓쏱쿻럑ꎬ볓쯙쫊폃힡랿ꎬ붨솢틔뺭볃쫊폃쇋랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄랢햹힡랿캪훷뗄힡랿릩펦쳥쾵ꆣ55
닆헾늿ꆢ맺볒쮰컱ퟜ뻖뗷헻쇋힡랿붻틗쮰쫕헾닟ꎬ뛔룶죋릺싲믲죃ퟔ폃웕춨힡햬ꎬ퓚웵쮰ꆢ펪튵쮰ꆢ룶죋쯹뗃쮰뫍췁뗘퓶횵쮰헷쫕짏ꎬ룸폨쇋폅믝헾닟횧돖ꆣ죋쏱틸탐뗷헻쇋짌튵틸탐룶죋힡랿쿻럑듻뿮뗄쫗뢶뿮뇈샽ꎬ뛔룶죋힡랿쿻럑듻뿮쪵탐폅믝샻싊ꆣ랢늼쇋ꆶ돇쫐랿뗘닺뾪랢뺭펪맜샭쳵샽ꆷ랿뗘닺튵랢햹쯙뛈놣돖욽컈ꆣ랿뗘쪵탐믽벫닆헾헾닟ꎬ웴뚯힡짮뮯실쪵힡랿럖엤믵닺뾪랢춶퓶뎤럹뛈캪14%ꎬ폫짏1999랿쿻럑ꎬ짮뮯실쪵힡랿럖엤뇒뮯룄룯쓪믹놾돖욽ꆣ짌욷랿욽뻹쿺쫛볛룱믵뇒뮯룄룯ꆣ2053풪ꎬ뇈짏쓪돶쿖킡럹믘실ꆣ랿뗘닺튵랢햹쫆춷돶쿖컈늽퓶뎤뗄웴뚯힡랿쿻럑ꎬ듙뷸랿뗘닺솼뫃첬쫆ꆣ랿뗘닺뾪랢춶퓶뎤럹2000듙뷸힡랿쿻럑튵랢햹ꆣ뛈캪21%ꎬ짌욷랿쿺쫛퓶뎤럹뛈캪32%ꆣ짌욷랿볛룱놣돖욽컈ꆣ좫맺랿뗘닺쫐뎡돶쿖뷏캪잿뺢뗄퓶뛔힡랿쿻럑닉폃럶돖헾닟ꎬ뎤쫆춷ꆣퟜ쳥짏놣돖욽컈ꎬ떫퓶뎤믽벫듙뷸랿뗘닺튵랢햹ꎻ볓2001듙뷸랿뗘닺튵랢햹쯙뛈돶쿖뷏듳럹뛈뗄퓶듳랿뗘닺뾪랢춶솦뛈ꎬ삭볓ꆣ2001쓪좫쓪랿뗘닺뾪랢춶퓶뚯뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ뎤25%ꎬ짌욷랿쿺쫛뛮퓶뎤18%ꆣ2002쓪랿뗘닺튵죔좻놣돖쇋솼뫃뗄퓶뎤쫆춷ꆣ1-4퓂ꎬ췪돉랿뗘닺뾪랢랢늼ꆶ맘폚헻뛙뫍맦랶쫐뎡2002맦랶랢햹춶1467틚풪ꎬ춬뇈퓶뎤38%ꆣ짌훈탲뗄춨횪ꆷꆣ욷랿컝쿺쫛뛮780틚풪ꎬ춬뇈퓶뎤20%ꆣ6퓂5죕ꎬ훐맺죋쏱틸탐맘폚뷸튻늽볓잿랿뗘닺탅듻튵컱맜샭뗄춨횪ꎬ7퓂30죕ꎬ퓚쫔뗣돇쫐뾪쪼붨솢랿뗘닺쫐뎡탅췪짆랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄볠맺컱풺냬릫쳼맘폚쟥샭헻뛙쾢뫍풤뺯풤놨쾵춳ꎬ퓶잿쫐뎡뗄춸맜뫍뗷뿘ꆢ듙뷸랿뗘2003룷샠뾪랢쟸볓잿붨짨폃뗘맜쏷뛈ꎬ힡햬훐뷩믺릹틔벰쿠맘탐튵닺쫐뎡돖탸붡뾵랢샭뗄춨횪ꎬ8퓂12죕ꎬ맺죧ힰ쫎ꆢ붨닄튵톸쯙랢햹ꆣ햹ꆣ컱풺맘폚듙뷸랿뗘닺쫐뎡돖탸붡뾵랢햹뗄춨횪ꎨ맺랢[2003]18뫅ꎩ2004쓪ꎬ랿뗘닺뾪랢춶춬뇈퓶뎤ꎥꎬ뇈2003쓪믘실룶냙럖뗣ꆣ2004쓪ꎬ랿뗘닺뾪랢탂릺훃췁4퓂29죕ꎬ맺컱풺냬릫쳼뗘쏦믽뷼4틚욽랽쏗ꎬ춬뇈퓶뎤맘폚짮죫뾪햹췁뗘쫐뎡훎샭ꎥꎬ짌튵틸탐탂퓶랿뗘닺뾪랢듻뿮헻뛙퇏룱췁뗘맜샭뗄뷴벱춨1047틚풪ꎬ뇈2003쓪짙퓶1086틚잿뮯뗘랽헾뢮뗄뫪맛2004횪ꎻ8퓂2죕ꎬ맺컱풺냬릫풪ꆣ짌욷랿ꆢ짌욷힡햬뾪ꆢ뾢릤쏦뗷뿘퓰죎쳼맘폚뿘훆돇헲랿컝닰잨맦믽뫍쿺쫛쏦믽뗄퓶럹뻹폐뷏듳믘쒣ꆡ퇏룱닰잨맜샭뗄춨횪실ꆣ2004쓪짌욷랿욽뻹볛룱춬뇈퓶ꎨ맺냬랢[2004]46뫅ꎩꎬ뎤ꎥꎬ웤훐짌욷힡햬볛룱춬뇈퓶뎤ꎥꎬ쫗듎돶쿖솽캻쫽퓶뎤ꎬ쫗듎뎬맽뻓쏱쫕죫퓶뎤ꎻ짙쫽돇쫐랿볛헇럹뎬맽20ꎥꆣ56
3퓂26죕ꎬ맺컱풺쿂랢쇋ꆶ맘폚쟐쪵컈뚨힡랿볛룱뗄춨횪ꆷꎬ릲폐냋쳵틢볻ꎬ볲돆“뻉맺냋쳵”ꆣ4퓂27죕ꎬ헫뛔춶믺탔뫍춶탔릺랿뗈탐캪볓맺컱풺뎣컱믡틩퇐뺿듓힡랿듳쇋뗷뿘솦뛈ꎬ뫏샭틽떼쇋죋쏇뗄탄샭풤웚ꆣퟔ2005쓪6퓂1죕웰ꎬ릩펦뷡릹뗷헻ꆢ췁뗘릩펦ꆢ뛔룶죋릺싲힡랿늻ퟣ2쓪쫖붻틗힡랿죃뮷뷚펪튵쮰헾닟ꆢ뗄ꎬ쿺쫛쪱내웤좡뗃뗄쫛랿쫕죫좫랿뗘닺탅듻맜샭ꆢ틽떼힡랿뛮헷쫕펪튵쮰ꎻ룶죋릺싲웕춨힡랿붨짨폫쿻럑ꆢ뺭볃쫊폃힡랿뎬맽2쓪ꎨ몬2쓪ꎩ쫖붻틗뗄ꎬ쫐뎡뫪맛뗷뿘ꎬ컈뚨붨짨ꎬ췪짆솮ퟢ힡랿훆뛈ꆢ쿺쫛쪱쏢헷펪튵쮰ꎻ뛔룶죋릺싲럇2005힡랿볛룱웕춨힡랿뎬맽2쓪ꎨ몬2쓪ꎩ쫖닩뒦캥램캥맦쿺쫛탐캪ꆢ쫐붻틗뗄ꎬ쿺쫛쪱내웤쫛랿쫕죫복좥뎡볠닢뫍탅쾢엻슶뗈랽쏦뷸릺싲랿컝뗄볛뿮뫳뗄닮뛮헷쫕펪튵튻늽볓잿랿뗘닺쫐뎡뫪맛뗷쮰ꆣ6퓂틔뫳ꎬ짏몣ꆢ놱뺩ꆢ몼훝뿘컊쳢ꎬ볲돆“탂맺냋쳵”ꆣ뗈돇쫐뗄힡햬쫐뎡볛룱뾪쪼쿂붵ꎬ5퓂11죕ꎬ맺컱풺냬릫쳼뛾쫖랿돉붻솿캮쯵ꎬ훐뷩믺릹뷸죫쿻뮯웚ꆣ랢쇋웟늿캯ꆶ맘폚ퟶ뫃컈뚨힡랿볛룱릤ퟷ뗄틢볻ꆷꎬ 5퓂27죕ꎬ맺볒쮰컱ퟜ뻖ꆡ닆헾늿ꆡ붨짨늿맘폚볓잿랿뗘닺쮰쫕맜샭뗄춨횪ꎨ2ꎩ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쓚퓚뒫떼믺훆쓚퓚믺훆쫇횸뺭볃쳥쾵훐뗄훷튪쓚짺틲쯘틀웤ퟔ짭맦싉랢짺뇤뮯뛸폖쿠뮥ퟷ폃ꎬ쪹쫐뎡랢햹돊쿖늨뚯탔뗄싟벭뇘좻탔ꆣ뺭볃쳥쾵뗄쓚퓚틲쯘돉캪힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄ퟔ컒췆뚯솦솿ꆣ57
짌욷힡햬탨쟳뗄퓶뎤힡햬튵샻죳짏짽웤쯼탐튵놾뗄춶죫춶믲춶믺탨쟳퓶볓돇쫐뺭볃랢햹짌욷힡짌욷힡햬뾪랢맦쒣삩듳햬릩룸솿복짙짧믡풴릩룸퓶볓릩룸뫍탨쟳뇈샽쪧뗷뫍뷡릹쪧뗷짧믡풴릩룸뷴헅뾪랢맽돌훐뛏짌욷힡햬뾪랢맦쒣복짙웕춨힡햬볛룱붵뗍ꆢ힡햬튵샻죳쿂붵삩헅훐뛏쫕쯵짌욷힡햬탨쟳쿂붵춼3ꎭ7 힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯맽돌쪾틢춼힡햬탨쟳뗄퓶뎤뫍힡햬뗄뛌웚릩룸늻ퟣꎬ붫틽웰힡햬뾪랢믮뚯뗄삩헅뫍힡햬춶샻죳싊뗄짏짽ꎬ뛸탨쟳뗄퓶볓뫍샻죳싊뗄쳡룟ꎬ붫틽훂힡햬춶짌ퟔ컒샛믽뗄춶믲춶믺탨쟳퓶볓뫍웤쯻탐튵놾뗄춶죫ꎬ듓뛸떼훂뾪랢맦쒣뗄뷸튻늽삩듳ꆣ퓚춶삩헅뗄맽돌훐ꎬ튻랽쏦힡햬뗄릩룸평뛌웚늻ퟣ떽뛌웚맽쪣ꎬ퓬돉릩룸뫍탨쟳뗄뇈샽뫍뷡릹쪧뗷ꎬ듓뛸떼훂뾪랢믮뚯뫍훈탲뗄믬싒짵훁뾪랢맽돌뗄훐뛏ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ삩헅믮뚯쫜떽췁뗘ꆢ뷰ꆢ붨닄뫍샍솦뗈풴뗄풼쫸ꎬ탎돉삩헅뗄ꆰ욿뺱ꆱꎬ떼훂힡햬뺭볃삩헅믮뚯뗄훐뛏ꎬ뷸뛸쿲쫕쯵ꆣ쫕쯵뷗뛎뗄ퟷ폃믺샭폫짏쫶맽돌쿠샠쯆ꆣ퓚쫕쯵맽돌훐ꎬ튻랽쏦ꎬ평폚힡햬풤웚볛룱퓶뎤싊뫍뾪랢샻죳뗄붵뗍ꎬ떼훂힡햬탨쟳뫍뾪랢맦쒣뗄쿂붵ꎬ풴릩룸평맽뛈뷴헅캪뿭쯉ꎬ풴릩룸ꆰ욿뺱ꆱ뗄훆풼훰늽뗃틔뮺뷢ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ뺭맽쫕쯵뷗뛎뗄뗷헻ꎬ힡햬쿻럑뫍뾪랢믮뚯훰늽ퟟ쿲폐탲탔ꎬ틬뎣늨뚯ힴ첬믖뢴헽뎣ꆣ쯦ퟅ힡햬릩룸뗄훰늽쿻뮯폫탨쟳쮮욽뗄퓶뎤ꎬ힡햬뺭볃믮뚯훰늽폖ퟟ쿲삩헅ꆣ헢퇹ꎬ훜뛸뢴쪼탎돉쇋힡햬뗄쫐뎡늨뚯뗄랢햹맽돌ꆣ늻맽폫뫪맛뺭볃늨뚯뗄ퟷ폃믺훆늻춬ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄폕랢틲쯘훷튪쫇탨쟳58
틲쯘ꎬ쯼룼뛠뗘쫜뺭볃랢햹쮮욽뫍뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐뮷뺳뗄펰쿬ꆣ2ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄췢짺틲쯘폫췢퓚쳵볾ꎨ1ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄췢짺틲쯘힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄췢짺틲쯘쫇횸힡햬쫐뎡뺭볃쳥쾵틔췢뗄ꆢ뛔힡햬쫐뎡뺭볃믮뚯닺짺돥믷뫍ퟷ폃뗄틲쯘ꎬ쯼튲뿉럖캪솽듳샠ꎺ뗚튻샠훷튪쫇폫힡햬쏜쟐쿠맘ꆢ횱뷓펰쿬돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡믮뚯뗄뫪맛헾닟ꆢ짧믡ꆢ뺭볃틲쯘뫍벼쫵틲쯘ꎬ죧뷰죚헾닟뫍닺튵헾닟뗈뫪맛헾닟틲쯘뻟폐쏷쿔늨뚯톭뮷탔훊ꎬ퓚뛌웚쓚뛔힡햬쫐뎡뺭볃퓋탐ힴ뿶뗄펰쿬뷏캪쿔훸ꎻ돇쫐뺭볃랢햹쮮욽ꆢ뺭볃쳥훆룄룯쳘뇰쫇췁뗘쪹폃훆뛈뫍힡랿훆뛈뗄룄룯ꆢ벼쫵뷸늽뗈틲쯘ꎬ쯼쏇뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쳘헷폐ퟅ뎤웚뛸짮풶뗄펰쿬ꆣ뗚뛾샠쫇쯦믺틲쯘ꎬ냼삨뗘헰ꆢ뫩쮮뗈ퟔ좻퓖몦ꎬ햽헹ꆢ헾훎럧늨뗈짧믡춻랢틲쯘ꎬ헢킩틲쯘뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯폐춻좻ꆢ횱뷓뫍쏍쇒뗄펰쿬ꎬ헢훖펰쿬췹췹쫇뛌웚뗄ꎬ떫폐쪱튲뿉쓜돖탸쿠떱뎤뗄쪱웚ꆣꎨ2ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄췢퓚쳵볾힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯볈평돇쫐힡햬뺭볃쯹훷떼ꎬ춬쪱ꎬ튲늻뿉뇜쏢뗘튪쫜췢늿틲쯘뗄죅뚯뫍훆풼ꆣ췢짺틲쯘뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄ퟷ폃춾뺶폐죽ꎺ튻쫇춨맽뛔쓚짺틲쯘뗄ퟷ폃쪵쿖뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄펰쿬ꆣ췢짺틲쯘뗄뇤뚯ꎬ믡틽웰쿠맘뗄힡햬쫐뎡쳥쾵뗄쓚짺틲쯘뗄뇤뚯ꎬ뛸쒳쿮쓚짺틲쯘뗄뇤뚯ꎬ폖믡춨맽돋쫽ퟷ폃뫍볓쯙ퟷ폃ꎬ퓬돉헻룶힡햬뺭볃쳥쾵뗄뇤뚯ꎬ듓뛸뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯퓬돉펰쿬ꎻ뛾쫇춨맽룄뇤힡햬쫐뎡뗄퓋탐믺훆뗄믹뒡뛸랢믓ퟷ폃ꆣ폐킩췢짺틲쯘죧벼쫵룯쏼ꆢ닺튵뷡릹뗄뇤뮯뗈ꎬ룄뇤힡햬쫐뎡뗄뻹뫢쮮욽뫍캻훃ꎬ닺짺힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄욯틆ꎻ죽쫇뛔헻룶뫪맛뺭볃뗄퓋탐뮷뺳듸살뻞듳뗄펰쿬ꎬ룄뇤힡햬뗈룷탐튵뗄랢햹뮷뺳ꎬ듸살힡햬쫐뎡뗄틬뎣늨뚯ꆣ죧뗘헰ꆢ뫩쮮ꆢ햽헹ꆢ헾훎럧늨뗈쯦믺틲쯘뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄펰쿬ꆣ쿖듺뺭볃훜웚샭싛죏캪ꎬ뺭볃늨뚯쫇뺭볃쾵춳뛔췢늿돥믷뗄쿬펦쟺쿟ꎬ쯼쫇췢늿쾵춳폫뺭볃쾵춳쿠뮥ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꆣ춬퇹ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯튲쫇퓚늨뚯뗄췢퓚쳵볾뗄돥믷쿂폫힡햬쫐뎡쿠뮥ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꆣ3ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄돥믷ꎭ뒫떼쒣탍ퟔ1986쓪틔살ꎬ훐맺힡햬튵뗄랢햹샺돌뫍힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꎬ볈폐힡햬쫐뎡쓚늿뒫떼믺훆뗄뻶뚨탔ퟷ폃ꎬ튲폐췢늿돥믷뗄펰쿬ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쫇힡햬쫐뎡뛔췢늿돥믷뗄쿬펦쟺쿟ꎬ쫇힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄돥믷ꆪꆪ뒫떼믺훆ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꆣ헢튻뒫떼맽돌듳쳥뺭샺쇋틔쿂쯄룶뷗뛎ꎺ59
뗚튻뷗뛎뇭쿖캪힡햬쫐뎡내웤ퟔ짭뗄늨뚯맦싉퓋탐ꎬ퓚쫐뎡늨뚯잿뛈ꆢ늨뚯헱럹폫늨뚯뎤뛈뗈횸뇪짏쟷폚헽뎣믲컈뚨ힴ첬ꆣ뗚뛾뷗뛎캪췢늿돥믷뷗뛎ꆣ살ퟔ힡햬쫐뎡틔췢뗄뇤솿ꎬ죧뫪맛뺭볃헾닟뇤뚯ꆢ뺭볃쳥훆뇤잨ꎬ뛔돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡닺짺췢늿돥믷ꆣ뗚죽뷗뛎캪돵쪼쿬펦폫쓚늿뒫떼뷗뛎ꆣ힡햬뺭볃쾵춳뛔췢늿돥믷닺짺돵쪼쿬펦ꎬ늢뮯캪힡햬뺭볃쾵춳퓋탐뗄훘튪뚯솦틲쯘ꆣ죧맻힡햬쫐뎡뛔룃췢늿돥믷쏴룐ꎬ쫐뎡늨뚯첬쫆닺짺뷏듳뇤뮯ꎻ죧맻힡햬쫐뎡뛔췢늿돥믷늻쏴룐ꎬ쫐뎡늨뚯쳘헷믹놾놣돖풭폐첬쫆퓋탐ꆣ뗚쯄뷗뛎캪쓚늿뒫떼뷗뛎ꆣ룹뻝돥믷뗄틲쯘늻춬ꎬ헢튻뷗뛎뛔힡햬쫐뎡폐솽훖뿉쓜뗄펰쿬ꎺ튻쫇헱떴쮥복뗄펰쿬ꆣ평폚힡햬쫐뎡듦퓚쓚늿퓋탐ퟨ솦ꎬ떱췢늿돥믷춨맽쓚늿뒫떼믺훆쿲힡햬뺭볃쾵춳룷룶쇬폲뷸탐좫쏦뒫떼쪱ꎬ뇘좻믡떼훂돵쪼쿬펦쟺쿟랢짺쮥복ꎬ튲뻍쫇쯦ퟅ쓚늿뒫떼맽돌뗄돖탸ꎬ췢늿돥믷뛔힡햬뺭볃쾵춳퓋탐뗄펰쿬솦뛈믡훰붥쮥복ꎻ뛾쫇헱떴뗝퓶뗄펰쿬ꆣ평폚퓚힡햬뺭볃퓋탐맽돌훐ꎬ폐킩틲쯘쓜닺짺ꆰ뫻뗻킧펦ꆱꎬ쯼뗄뇤뮯믡뛔힡햬쫐뎡닺짺뻞듳뗄돥믷ꆣ뗚컥뷗뛎캪믖뢴헽뎣퓋탐ힴ첬뷗뛎ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡뛔췢늿돥믷ퟷ돶돵쪼쿬펦ꎬ늢뺭쓚늿뒫떼믺훆ퟷ폃횮뫳ꎬ튻훖뿉쓜쫇뺭맽헱떴쮥복ꎬ훘탂믘떽췢늿돥믷잰뗄헽5뎣퓋탐맬벣ꆣ쇭튻훖뿉쓜쫇쫐뎡뇀삣ꆢ퓙훘붨ꎬ믲헟퓚웤쯻뗄췢짺튪쯘뗄ퟷ폃쿂ꎬ뗖쿻믲틖훆잰튻췢늿돥믷뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ믘떽힡햬쫐뎡헽뎣뗄늨뚯ힴ첬ꆣퟜ횮ꎬ떱힡햬쫐뎡쫜떽췢늿돥믷뛸룄뇤퓋탐맬벣믲돶쿖틬뎣늨뚯횮뫳ꎬ춨맽쓚늿믲췢늿뒫떼믺훆뛔돥믷뷸탐ퟔ컒랴펦폫뗷헻ꎬ퓚돥믷믺훆폫뒫떼믺훆붻뮥ퟷ폃쿂ꎬ샺뺭짏쫶컥룶뷗뛎뛸훘탂믘떽헽뎣늨뚯ힴ첬ꆣ떱췢늿돥믷솬탸늻뛏짵훁훘뢴뗾볓쪱ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뇣퓚돥믷ꎭ뒫떼믺훆ퟷ폃쿂뷸죫솬탸늻뛏뗄늨뚯톭뮷횮훐ꆣ퓚힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄돥믷ꎭ뒫떼쒣탍훐ꎬ췢늿돥믷쫇늨뚯뗄돵쪼풭틲믲돵쪼췆뚯솦솿ꎬ늢늻횱뷓뻶뚨힡햬늨뚯뗄쳘탔ꎬ횻쫇춨맽쓚퓚뒫떼믺훆뛸뛔쫐뎡늨뚯뗄늨럹ꆢ늨뎤ꆢ늨럥ꆢ늨마뗈닺짺뗾볓펰쿬ꎬ쪹믹놾늨뚯탎첬닺짺뇤뮯ꎬ늢뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯헛뗣뗄탎돉닺짺훷떼탔ퟷ폃ꎻ쓚늿뒫떼믺훆쯤좻뇭쿖캪뛔췢늿돥믷뗄훍뫳쿬펦ꎬ떫평폚힡햬쫐뎡쫇튻룶쓚짺퓋뚯뻶뚨뗄믽샛맽돌ꎬ틲뛸퓚놾훊짏뻶뚨ퟅ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쓚퓚쫴탔ꎬ뻶뚨ퟅ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯맽돌훐냼삨늨럥ꆢ늨마ꆢ늨럹ꆢ 5 훘탂믘떽췢늿돥믷잰뗄헽뎣퓋탐맬벣뗄쪱볤쫇뫢솿힡햬뺭볃쾵춳쳘헷뗄훘튪횸뇪ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡퓚쫜떽췢늿돥믷뫳훘탂믖뢴헽뎣퓋탐쯹탨쪱볤뻍폺뎤ꎬ쮵쏷헢튻힡햬쫐뎡뛔췢늿돥믷뗄뗖폹쓜솦뻍폺닮ꆣ쿠랴ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡쫜떽췢늿돥믷뫳훘탂믖뢴헽뎣퓋탐쯹탨쪱볤폺뛌ꎬ쮵쏷힡햬쫐뎡뛔췢늿돥믷뗄뗖폹쓜솦폺뫃ꎬퟔ컒믖뢴쓜솦폺잿ꆣ60
늨뎤뗈믹놾늨뚯탎첬ꆣ듓췢늿돥믷살럖컶ꎬ쯤좻폫룄룯뾪럅잰훐맺힡햬튵벫뛈뗍쏔뗄랢햹쿖ힴ풴폚췢늿돥믷쿠샠쯆ꎬ룄룯뾪럅틔살훐맺힡햬튵뗄뿬쯙랢햹튲훷튪쫇쫜떽췢늿돥믷뗄뻶뚨탔ퟷ폃ꎬ떫솽룶뷗뛎뗄췢늿돥믷좴퓚탔훊짏듦퓚룹놾탔뗄쟸뇰ꆣ룄룯뾪럅잰뗄췢늿돥믷뇭쿖캪볆뮮뺭볃쳥훆쿂뛔힡햬튵뗄룹놾럱뚨ꎬ틲뛸늻싛쫇헾닟좡쿲뮹쫇뻟쳥닙ퟷ쫖뛎ꎬ뚼쫇틔좡쿻힡햬튵퓋탐쳵볾캪믹놾쳘헷ꆣ룄룯뾪럅틔살훐맺힡햬훜웚늨뚯뗄췢늿돥믷ꎬ퓲쫇퓚훘탂뿏뚨힡햬튵ꆢ믖뢴힡햬튵랢햹쳵볾뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ평폚뺭볃쳥훆맬벰퓶뎤랽쪽뮻뛸탎돉뗄ꎬ훷튪뇭쿖캪틔쳥훆뮻ꆢ퓶뎤랽쪽뗷헻벰뫪맛헾닟캪쳘헷뫍쓚죝뗄돥믷탎첬ꆣ듓쓚늿뒫떼살럖컶ꎬ룄룯뾪럅잰뛔힡햬튵뗄럱뚨믲평듋돶쿖뗄뎤웚벫뛈캮쯵ꎬ듓룹놾짏럱뚨쇋힡햬쫐뎡쾵춳쓚늿뒫떼믺훆뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ헢훖쓚늿뒫떼믺훆쫇쯦ퟅ룄룯뾪럅뫳힡햬튵훘탂탎돉뫍랢햹뛸훰붥돶쿖뗄ꎬ훷튪폐힡햬춶맦쒣폫춶뷡릹ꆢ힡햬릩쟳맘쾵뇤뚯ꆢ힡햬쫐뎡뷡릹ꆢ힡햬춶믺탐캪뗈뒫떼춾뺶ꎬ뛔룄룯뾪럅뫳훐맺힡햬훜웚늨뚯뗄ퟷ폃훰붥퓶잿ꎬ탎돉틔춶늨뚯캪훷ꆢ퓚힡햬튵쓚늿뒫뗝뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ꆣ 뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿폫힡햬쫐뎡맘쾵뗄볆솿럖컶뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿벰웤늨뚯쫇랿뗘닺볛룱늨뚯뗄훷튪살풴횮튻ꆣ쯤좻Malpezziꎨ1999ꎩꆢQuigleyꎨ1999ꎩꆢMiki Sekoꎨ2003ꎩ뗈톧헟헫뛔쏀맺ꆢ죕놾뗄쟸폲쓪뛈춳볆쫽뻝ꎬ펦폃쪱볤탲쇐뷘쏦믘맩럖컶ꆢ욽냥쫽뻝ퟔ믘맩쒣탍뗈뷸탐쇋붨훾돉놾ꆢ돉쓪죋뿚뗄뇤뮯ꆢ뻍튵ꆢ듻뿮샻싊ꆢ힡햬뾪릤솿ꆢ힡햬붨짨탭뿉쫽틔벰죋뻹쫕죫폫볛룱맘쾵뗄퇐뺿ꎬ떫헢킩춳볆횸뇪폫컒맺쿖탐뗄춳볆횸뇪늻춬ꎬ믲뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿뗄몭틥폐닮틬ꎬ퓙틲랿뗘닺뗄쟸폲쳘헷쏷쿔ꎬ틲듋떼훂웤폫힡햬볛룱횮볤뗄맘쾵튲늻쓜헕냡맺췢뗄퇐뺿ꆣ뛸컒맺뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄맘쾵틔뚨탔럖컶캪훷ꎬ돽폐맘랿뗘닺춶뗈룶뇰튪쯘폫랿뗘닺볛룱맘쾵폐튻뚨뗄뚨솿퇐뺿틔췢ꎬ쾵춳뗘뚨솿럖컶뫪맛뫍랿뗘닺뺭볃뇤솿폫힡햬쫐뎡횮볤맘쾵뗄컄헂뷏캪쿊볻ꆣ뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿튻냣쫇횸맺쓚뗄뺭볃탎쫆폫뺭볃ힴ뿶ꆣ뛔췢쿺힡햬뛸퇔ꎬ쯼뮹튪냼삨맺볊뺭볃탎쫆뫍췢쎳맘쾵ꆣ뛔돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뛸퇔ꎬ헫뛔컒맺뻟쳥뗄춳볆훆뛈ꎬ뺭뎣쪹폃뗄뺭볃믹놾쏦뇤솿폐돇쫐맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵ꆢ돇쫐뗚뛾닺튵GDPꆢ돇쫐뗚죽닺튵GDPꆢ믹놾붨짨춶ꆢ돇쫐맦쒣ꆢ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶ꆢ돇쫐죋뿚ꆢ죋61
뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫ꆢ뻓쏱쿻럑컯볛횸쫽ꆢ뷰죚튵듻뿮폠뛮ꆢ탂퓶뷰죚튵듻뿮붨훾돉놾ꆢ샻싊뗈ꆣ[47]뇭3ꎭ8 뺭볃믹놾쏦뛔랿뗘닺볛룱뷢쫍뫍풤닢쓜솦뗄훷튪퇐뺿맺ퟷ헟쫽뻝훷튪뇤솿랽램뷡싛볒힡랿돉놾폫볛룱뗄뇈샽ꆢ돉쓪죋뿚뗄뇤뮯틔벰죋뻹쯄룶듳뚼쫐쟸폲뛀솢힡햬훘뢴쿺쫛볛룱횸쫽ꎻ쪱볤탲Case뫍쏀뗄벾뛈쫽뻝뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽ꎻ뻍튵ꎻ룶쇐뷧쏦헦쪵쫕죫뗄뇤뮯폫뎬뛮샻Shiller맺ꎨ1970ꎺ1-죋쫕죫ꎻ죋뿚쿠맘횸뇪ꎻ뛀뮧믘맩럖죳믲헟볛룱뗄뇤뮯폐ퟅ럇ꎨ1990ꎩ1986ꎺ3ꎩ힡햬뾪릤솿ꎻ붨훾돉놾횸쫽컶뎣잿뗄헽쿠맘탔ꆣ뛀뮧힡햬쫐뎡늢늻쫇폐킧뗄ꆣ쪱볤헦쪵쫕죫뫍붨훾돉놾뗄뇤39룶돇쫐뗄쓪탲쇐뮯좷쪵뿉틔뷢쫍룶돇쫐힡Poterba쏀힡햬볛룱뗄훐캻쫽ꎻ붨훾돉뛈쫽뻝뷧쏦햬볛룱뗄짏헇ꎬ떫쫇죋뿚ꎨ1991ꎩ맺놾ꎻ죋뿚틲쯘ꎻ쫕죫ꎨ1980-1990ꎩ믘맩늢늻쫇훷튪펰쿬랿뗘닺볛럖컶룱뗄틲쯘훘뢴붻틗힡햬볛룱횸쫽뫍움맀뺭볃뗄뇤뮯ꎨ죋뿚ꆢ뻍튵Clapp뫍3룶쫐헲뗄퓄뛁쏀볛횵힡햬볛룱횸쫽ꎻ뻍튵뇤볲떥뫍죋뿚ꎩ뛔폚힡햬볛룱뗄Giaccotto쫽뻝맺뮯ꎻ웚췻춨믵엲헍싊ꎻ틢췢춨믘맩뇤뮯뻟폐뷏뫃뗄풤닢쓜ꎨ1994ꎩꎨ1981-1988ꎩ믵엲헍싊ꎻ뎤웚럧쿕늹뎥솦ꎬ늻럻뫏폐킧쫐뎡볙쮵믹폚Hedonic쒣탍뗄쮽죋펵폐뛀뮧힡햬볛룱횸쫽ꎻ믹폚Hedonic쒣탍뗄퓂ퟢ뷰ꎻ췁뗘볛룱ꎻ볒춥쫕죫뗄훐캻쫽ꎻ죋솽뷗볒춥쫕죫뫍붨훾돉놾쫇펰58룶뚼쫇춳볆Potepan쏀뿚ꎻ릫릲럾컱뗄훊솿ꆢ랸ퟯ싊ꎻ뛎ퟮ쿬늻춬돇쫐볤힡햬볛룱ꆢ쟸폲뗄쓪뛈쫽ꎨ1996ꎩ맺킡뛾ퟢ뷰뫍췁뗘볛룱뗄ퟮ훘튪뿕웸컛좾ꎻ4뿚횮볒뗄럇힡햬ꎨ1974-1983ꎩ돋램틲쯘쿻럑욷볛룱ꎻ뗖톺듻뿮샻싊ꎻ붨훾돉놾ꎻ얩튵폃뗘볛룱ꎻ뗘탎폃뗘풼쫸ꎻ램싉짏뗄폃뗘풼쫸훘뢴붻틗힡햬볛룱횸쫽ꎻ믹폚쪱볤133룶뚼쫇춳볆Hedonic쒣탍뗄힡햬볛룱횸탲쇐Malpezzi쏀힡햬볛룱늻쫇쯦믺폎ퟟꎬ쟸폲뗄쓪뛈쫽뻝쫽ꎻ쫕죫ꎻ죋뿚ꎻ헾뢮뛔폚힡뷘쏦ꎨ1999ꎩ맺훁짙뿉틔늿럖놻풤닢ꎨ1979-1996ꎩ햬쫐뎡맜훆횸쫽ꎻ늻춬힡햬쫐믘맩뎡뗄뗘샭뮷뺳럖컶쪱볤뺭볃믹놾쏦뗄쿠맘횸뇪뿉욽뻹힡햬볛룱ꎻ뻍튵ꎻ쫕죫ꎻ41룶뚼쫐쟸폲탲쇐틔뷢쫍랿뗘닺볛룱뗄ퟟQuigley쏀뻓힡뫍돶ퟢ힡햬뗄뿕훃싊ꎻퟜ뗄쓪뛈쫽뻝뷘쏦쫆ꎬ뺡맜듓뛌웚살뾴뺭볃ꎨ1999ꎩ맺죋뿚ꎻ볒춥쫽ꎻ힡햬뾪릤솿ꎻꎨ1986-1994ꎩ믘맩믹놾쏦늢늻쓜뷢쫍첫뛠뗄힡햬붨짨탭뿉쫽럖컶랢쓇룶뗘닺볛룱늨뚯욽냥쫽46룶쿘뗄쓪뛈쮽죋펵폐힡햬뗄욽뻹쿺쫛볛죕놾룷뗘쟸뗄힡햬볛룱뫍Miki Seko죕뻝ꎻ쫽뻝룱ꎻ쓪쫕죫ꎻ죋뿚ꎻ힡햬쓪뾪뺭볃믹놾쏦폐ퟅ뇈뷏잿뗄ꎨ2003ꎩ놾ퟔ믘ꎨ1980-2001ꎩ릤솿ꎻ쿻럑볛룱횸쫽ꎻ뿕훃싊쿠맘탔ꎬ뿉틔풤닢맩쒣탍캪쇋뚨솿퇐뺿훐맺힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹쟷쫆ꎬ펦럖컶웤펰쿬틲쯘뗄뚨솿펰쿬돌뛈ꎬ62
헢샯뷶럖컶GDPꎬ믵뇒릩펦ꆢ춨믵엲헍ꆢ좫맺만뚨닺ퟜ춶뗈틲쯘뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡펰쿬뗄쫽톧쒣탍ꆣ GDP폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뮥뚯맘쾵럖컶1ꎩGDP폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯맘쾵뗄뚨탔럖컶돇쫐뗄힡햬탨쟳쫇폐횧뢶쓜솦뗄탨쟳ꎬ쯼좡뻶폚돇쫐뻓쏱릺싲솦뗄듳킡ꎬ좡뻶폚뻓쏱뗄쫕죫뫍돇쫐쫕죫럖엤ꎬ뛸웤쫕죫ퟮ훕좡뻶폚돇쫐뺭볃랢햹뗄쯙뛈뫍쮮욽ꆣ맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵ꎬ튲돆GDPꎬ쫇내쫐뎡볛룱볆쯣뗄맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄볲돆ꎬ쫇뫢솿튻룶맺볒ꆢ뗘쟸믲돇쫐뺭볃랢햹쮮욽ꆢ뫢솿뺭볃퓶뎤뗄훘튪횸뇪ꎬ튻냣살쮵ꎬ맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵폐죽훖탎첬ꎬ벴볛횵탎첬ꆢ쫕죫탎첬뫍닺욷탎첬ꆣ듓볛횵탎첬뾴ꎬ쯼쫇쯹폐뎣떥캻퓚튻뚨쪱웚쓚짺닺뗄좫늿믵컯뫍럾컱볛횵폫춬웚춶죫뗄좫늿럇만뚨닺믵컯뫍럾컱볛횵뗄닮뛮ꎬ벴쯹폐뎣떥캻뗄퓶볓횵횮뫍ꎻ듓쫕죫탎첬뾴ꎬ쯼쫇쯹폐뎣떥캻퓚튻뚨쪱웚쓚횱뷓뒴퓬뗄쫕죫횮뫍ꎻ듓닺욷탎첬뾴ꎬ쯼쫇믵컯뫍럾컱ퟮ훕쪹폃복좥믵컯뫍럾컱뷸뿚ꆣ놾컄훐쯹닉폃뗄쫽뻝캪맺볒믲뗘랽돇쫐헾뢮춳볆늿쏅릫늼뗄GDP쫽뻝ꆣ맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵살풴폚뗚튻닺튵ꎺ얩튵(냼삨훖횲튵ꆢ쇖튵ꆢ쓁튵ꆢ뢱튵뫍폦튵)ꆢ뗚뛾닺튵ꎺ릤튵(냼삨닉뻲릤튵ꆢ훆퓬튵ꆢퟔ살쮮ꆢ뗧솦ꆢ헴웸ꆢ죈쮮ꆢ쎺웸)뫍붨훾튵ꆢ뗚죽닺튵ꎺ돽뗚튻ꆢ뗚뛾닺튵틔췢뗄웤쯻룷튵ꆣ평폚뗚죽닺튵냼삨뗄탐튵뛠ꆢ랶캧맣ꎬ룹뻝컒맺뗄쪵볊쟩뿶ꎬ뗚죽닺튵뿉럖캪솽듳늿럖ꎻ튻쫇쇷춨늿쏅ꎬ뛾쫇럾컱늿쏅ꆣ퓚뗚죽닺튵쯹쫴뗄럾컱늿쏅훐ꎬ랿뗘닺튵퓶볓횵햼폐GDP뗄뷏듳뇈훘ꎬ듓맺췢쇏뾴ꎬ쏀맺햼%ꎬ볓쓃듳햼%ꎬ죕놾햼11%ꎬ램맺ꆢ몫맺럖뇰햼%뫍%ꎬ럆싉뇶햼%ꎬ뻍솬첩맺뫍펡뛈뮹럖뇰햼떽%뫍%ꆣ컒맺힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵뒦폚랢햹웚ꎬ웤햼GDP뗄뇈훘훰늽쳡룟ꆣ힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵폫웤쯻훚뛠탐튵쿠뮥훆풼ꎬ쿠뮥틀듦ꆣ튻랽쏦훆퓬튵ꆢ붨훾튵벰붨닄튵뗄랢햹캪힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵쳡릩쇋뇘늻뿉짙뗄놣헏ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵뗄랢햹튲삭뚯쿠맘닺튵뗄랢햹ꆣ뻝춶죫닺돶쒣탍닢쯣ꎬ쎿쿺쫛100틚풪힡햬뿉틔폕랢맺쏱뺭볃룷늿쏅뗄닺돶286틚풪ꎬ웤훐폕랢뗚뛾닺훐붨훾튵닺돶틚풪ꆣ폐쇏뷩짜ꎬ컷랽뺭볃랢듯맺볒뛠쓪살튻횱놣돖쎿쓪붨퓬힡햬죋뻹1욽랽쏗뗄랢햹쯙뛈ꎬ듓뛸쪹붨훾튵퓚맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵훐뗄뇈훘퓚9%ퟳ폒ꎬ돉캪맺쏱뺭볃뗄횧훹닺튵ꆣ틔쏀맺캪샽ꎬ붨훾튵풼쎿쓪쿻럑튱뷰릤튵닺욷뗄16%틔짏ꎬ쮮쓠ꆢ늣솧ꆢ췟뗄70%ꎬ쒾닄뗄40%ꎬ폍웡뗄50%ꆣ컒맺폃폚붨훾릤돌뗄닄쇏쿻뫄캪ꎺ룖닄풼햼룖닄ퟜ쿻뫄솿뗄25%ꎬ쒾닄풼햼40%ꎬ쮮쓠70%ꎬ늣솧70%ꎬ쯜쇏훆욷63
[48]25%ꆣ힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵폫뗚뛾닺훐뗄웤쯼탐튵죧훆퓬튵튲폐ퟅ쏜쟐뗄맘쾵ꆣ퓚힡햬폫럇힡햬붨훾훐ꎬ튪짦벰40뛠룶닺튵늿쏅ꎬ뻝춶죫닺돶쒣탍닢쯣ꎬ쎿100틚풪랿뗘닺춶뿉틔폕랢훆퓬튵뗄닺돶틚풪ꆣ힡햬튵돽쇋붨훾튵ꆢ훆퓬튵뗄닺돶횮췢ꎬ뮹폕랢쿠맘늿쏅뗄닺돶ꎬ틀듎캪닉뿳튵ꎨ17틚풪ꎩꆢ짌튵 ꎨ11틚풪ꎩꆢ랿뗘닺튵ퟔ짭ꎨ11틚풪ꎩꆢ뗧솦쎺웸ퟔ살쮮릩펦튵ꎨ틚풪ꎩꆢ믵컯퓋쫤벰닖뒢튵ꎨ틚풪ꎩꆢ짧믡럾컱튵ꎨ5틚풪ꎩꆢ얩튵ꎨ틚풪ꎩꆢ뷰죚놣쿕튵ꎨ4틚풪ꎩꆢ폊뗧튵ꎨ3틚풪ꎩꆢ틻쪳튵ꎨ틚풪ꎩꆢퟛ뫏벼쫵[49]럾컱튵ꎨ틚풪ꎩ뗈뗈ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄삩듳폐샻폚퓶볓돇쫐뻍튵룚캻ꎬ쪹돇쫐뺭볃뗃떽랢햹ꎬ돇쫐쏦쎲뗃떽룄짆ꆣ내헕쎿틚풪힡햬춶폫쪩릤쏦믽1ꎺ닢쯣ꎬ죴탂퓶100틚풪힡햬춶ꎬ뻍뿉틔퓶볓1678췲욽랽쏗뗄쪩릤쏦믽ꎬ뛸췪돉1췲욽랽쏗쪩릤쏦믽탨튪듓튵죋풱167죋ꎬ평듋췆쯣ꎬ뿉틔낲업뻍튵죋풱28췲죋ꆣ뾼싇떽힡햬튵뛔맺쏱뺭볃웤쯻탐튵뗄듸뚯ퟷ폃ꎬ틀뻝춶죫닺돶쒣탍닢쯣ꎬ힡햬튵쎿붨퓬1틚풪닺욷ꎬ탨튪횱뷓쿻뫄틚풪뗄릤튵닺욷ꎬ뮹뿉틔듸뚯틚풪뗄짌욷쿺쫛ꆣ평폚릤ꆢ짌솽듳탐튵릤ퟷ솿퓶볓ꎬ퓲뿉뷢뻶룼뛠뗄뻍튵룚캻ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢폽쪹뾪랢짌ꆢ춶헟틔벰돇헲뻓쏱폐쇋탂뗄춶쟾뗀ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ맺폐췁뗘쪹폃좨뗄폐뎥돶죃ꎬ캪돇쫐붨짨쳡릩쇋컈뚨뗄닆헾살풴ꆣ뻝뗷닩ꎬ살ퟔ췁뗘뗄쫕틦ꎬ튻냣뗄돇쫐캪닆헾쫕죫뗄25%ꎬ짮?ꆢ훩몣뗈뗘뿉듯40%ꎬ놻돆캪헾뢮뗄뗚뛾닆헾ꆣ틲듋ꎬ쯼벫듳뗘듙뷸쇋뗘랽뗄릤튵뮯뫍돇쫐뮯뗄뷸돌ꎬ듳엺죽웳튵뗄탋웰ꆢ듳솿췢뗄틽죫ꆢ죋닅뫍샍뚯솦뗄뻛벯ꎬ캪놾뗘쟸뗄뺭볃랢햹듸살짺믺뫍믮솦ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ뻉돇룄퓬뫍돇쫐믹뒡짨쪩뗄붨짨쯙뛈볓뿬ꎬ돇쫐뗄실뫳쏦쎲톸쯙뗃떽룄짆ꆣ2ꎩGDP폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯맘쾵뗄뚨솿럖컶퓚튻뚨뗄짧믡훆뛈뫍벼쫵쮮욽쿂ꎬ훷튪듦퓚폐솽샠쟽뚯돇쫐뺭볃퓶뎤뗄솦솿ꎺ튻룶쫇뛔돇쫐닺욷뗄탨쟳ꎬ평듋뒴퓬뻍튵믺믡ꎻ쇭튻룶쫇돇쫐뗄튪쯘릩룸ꆣ틲캪퓚죽듳훷튪짺닺튪쯘훐ꎬ샍뚯솦뫍뷰뚼쫇뿉틔쇷뚯뗄튪쯘ꎬ퓚튻룶뾪럅뗄돇쫐훐ꎬ룃샠튪쯘늻뿉쓜돉캪폀뻃탔뗄풼쫸ꎬ뛸횻폐늻뚯닺틔벰놾캻탔풴닅쓜뛔돇쫐뗄뺭볃랢햹탎돉훆풼ꎬ춬쪱ꎬ튲횻폐쯼쏇닅쓜듓돇쫐뺭볃뗄퓶뎤훐믱좡뛀쳘뗄쟸캻폅쫆ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ돇쫐힡햬튪쯘뗄릩룸뫍쫐뎡뗄랢햹캪GDP뗄퓶뎤쳡릩횧독ꎻ춬쪱ꎬGDP뗄퓶뎤폖캪돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡퓶볓쇋틽훂탨쟳ꆢ퓶잿쇋돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄뛀쳘탔ꆣ틲듋ꎬ듓샭싛짏살쮵ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹늻뿉쓜샫뾪맺쏱뺭볃뗄횧독ꎬ췑샫맺쏱뺭볃풼쫸뗄돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡랢폽ힴ첬늻뿉쓜뎤뻃캬돖ꎬ맺쏱뺭볃뛔폚힡햬쫐뎡쾵64
춳뗄횧독뫍풼쫸솦쫇튻훖뿍맛뇘좻ꎬ맺쏱뺭볃뗄튻킩뇤뚯ꎬ뇈죧춨믵엲헍ꆢ닺횵퓶뎤쯙뛈뷸죫뮺싽웚뗈ꎬ뚼뿉쓜뇭쿖캪맺쏱뺭볃헻쳥뛔폚힡햬뺭볃쿖쪵뗄풼쫸ꎬ웾뛏힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐뗄ꆰ퇸럖ꆱꎬ쓑틔캬돖힡햬쫐뎡뗄붡뾵컈뚨뗄랢햹ꆣ죧떱돇쫐뺭볃캬돖늻쇋맽룟뗄힡햬볛룱뫍붻틗솿쪱ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뻍믡돶쿖훮죧뿕훃싊퓶볓뗈쿖쿳ꎬ듓뛸떼훂힡햬쫐뎡폫맺볒ꆢ쟸폲믲돇쫐뺭볃뗄랢햹늻킭뗷ꆣ캪쇋쪵쿖힡햬쫐뎡컈뚨붡뾵랢햹벰웤폫돇쫐뺭볃뗄킭뗷랢햹ꎬ쫗쿈뻍펦샭쮳뫢솿돇쫐맺쏱뺭볃퓶뎤뗄훷튪횸뇪ꆪꆪ맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵ꎨGDPꎩ폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯횮볤뗄뮥뚯맘쾵ꎬ횻폐헢퇹ꎬ닅쓜폐헫뛔탔뗘붨솢폫뫍킳짧믡쿠펦뗄힡햬쫐뎡랢햹듫쪩ꆣꎨ1ꎩ벼쫵쮼쿫캪듯떽틔짏쒿뗄ꎬ놾컄룹뻝힡햬쫐뎡폫맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵맘쾵뗄샭싛럖컶ꎬ솢ퟣ폚컒맺뫪맛벰퇹뗣돇쫐뗄쫽뻝믹뒡ꎬ닉폃쫽뻝럖컶랽램ꎬ짨훃돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯횸뇪ꎬ틀뻝Granger볬퇩샭싛뫍랽램ꎬ첽쳖GDP폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯횮볤뗄뮥뚯맘쾵ꎬ늢틔컒맺캪뛔쿳뷸탐쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣꎨ2ꎩ닙ퟷ쇷돌ꋙ쫕벯쇏뷡뫏컒맺힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹틔벰돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹쪵볊샺돌ꎬ쫕벯폫짌욷힡햬붻틗솿ꆢ짌욷힡햬붻틗뷰뛮ꆢ힡햬볛룱틔벰쿠펦뗄돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗈횸뇪ꆣꋚ틲맻맘쾵볬퇩퓚볬퇩탲쇐X쫇럱쫇탲쇐Y닺짺뗄풭틲쪱ꎬ뎣닉폃Granger틲맻맘쾵랽램ꎺ쿈맀볆떱잰뗄Y횵놻웤ퟔ짭뇤솿벰웤훍뫳횵쯹뷢쫍뗄돌뛈ꎬ좻뫳퇩횤춨맽틽죫탲쇐X벰웤훍뫳횵ꎬ볬퇩쫇럱뿉틔쳡룟Y뗄놻뷢쫍돌뛈ꎬ죧맻쳡룟쇋뷢쫍돌뛈ꎬ퓲돆탲쇐X쫇Y뗄Granger돉틲ꆣ룹뻝Granger틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뗄믹놾쮼쿫ꎬ캪럖컶돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ첬폫웤맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵ꎬ짨뚨틔쿂몯쫽맘쾵ꎺGDP=c+(a*GDP)+(b*HP)+e ꎨ3-7ꎩ∑∑t1it−iit−i1tHP=c+(g*HP)+(h*GDP)+e ꎨ3-8ꎩ∑∑t2it−iit−i2t퓚틔짏몯쫽훐ꎬHP캪돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪ꎬGDP캪맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵ꆣ춨맽볬퇩ꎬ죧뷓쫜쇣볙짨H01ꎺbiꎽ0ꎬ퓲HP늻쫇GDP뗄풭틲ꎬ뛸뷓쫜볙짨H02ꎺhiꎽ0ꎬ퓲GDP늻쫇HP뗄풭틲ꆣ쪹폃F볬퇩ꎺ(RSS−RSS)/JRuF=~F(,T−K) ꎨ3-9ꎩRSS/(T−K)u65
벴뿉쪵쿖틲맻맘쾵볬퇩ꆣ쪽훐RSS뫍RSSu럖뇰뇭쪾퓚쇣볙짨ힴ첬쿂뗄풼쫸R뫍럇풼쫸뗄닐닮욽랽뫍ꎬJ뫍K럖뇰뇭쪾풼쫸룶쫽뫍믘맩틲ퟓ룶쫽ꆣꋛ에뛏돉틲맘쾵룹뻝틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뗄볆쯣뷡맻ꎬ내틔쿂맦퓲좷뚨돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪폫돇[50]쫐GDP횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ퓚볬퇩훐ꎬ죧맻뷓쫜H01,춬쪱뻜뻸H02ꎬ퓲뇭쪾돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪늻쫇GDP뗄돉틲ꆣ퓚볬퇩훐ꎬ죧맻뷓쫜H02,춬쪱뻜뻸H01ꎬ퓲뇭쪾GDP늻쫇쯹럖컶돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪뗄돉틲ꆣ퓚볬퇩훐ꎬ죧맻뻜뻸H01,춬쪱튲뻜뻸H02ꎬ퓲뇭쪾돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪폫GDP횮볤캪뮥캪틲맻맘쾵믲랴삡맘쾵ꆣ퓚볬퇩훐ꎬ죧맻벴뷓쫜H01,춬쪱튲뷓쫜H02ꎬ퓲뇭쪾GDP뫍쯹럖컶뗄돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪횮볤쎻폐쮫쿲뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ3ꎩ쪵횤럖컶ꎨ1ꎩ쫕벯훐맺짌욷힡햬뫍GDP뗄쿠맘쇏룹뻝훐맺짌욷힡햬뗄랢햹ힴ뿶ꎬ쫕벯훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꎨZGXSEꎩꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽ꎨZGXSMJꎩꆢ힡햬볛룱ꎨZGPJJGꎩ틔벰쿠펦뗄돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵ꎨGDPꎩ뗈횸뇪ퟷ캪럖컶믹뒡쫽뻝ꆣꎨ2ꎩGDP폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡튪쯘횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩룹뻝쫕벯떽뗄훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뫍GDP뗈횸뇪ꎬ붫웤ퟷ캪럖컶믹뒡쫽뻝볬퇩GDP뫍훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ룹뻝릫쪽ꎨ3-7ꎩꆫꎨ3-9ꎩꎬ뿉뗃GDP폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵뗄볬퇩뷡맻ꎬ죧쿂뇭쯹쪾ꆣ뇭3-9 GDP폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뇭샠뇰쇣볙짨F춳볆솿룅싊횵돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸ZGXSMJ늻쫇GDP뗄풭틲뇪뛔GDP뗄펰쿬럖ZGXSE늻쫇GDP뗄풭틲컶ZGPJJG늻쫇GDP뗄풭틲뛔돇쫐짌욷힡GDP늻쫇ZGXSMJ뗄풭틲햬쫐뎡횸뇪뗄ퟷ폃럖GDP늻쫇ZGXSE뗄풭틲컶GDP늻쫇ZGPJJG뗄풭틲럖컶뗄믹뒡쫽뻝살풴ꎺ2000ꆫ2003쓪쫽뻝살ퟔꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꎻ뇭훐뗄F춳볆솿뫍룅싊횵캪훍뫳웚iꎽ2뗄쟩탎ꆣꎨ3ꎩ뷡맻뷢쫍룹뻝뇭훐뗄볆쯣뷡맻ꎬ뷡뫏F춳볆솿뫍룅싊횵뗄럖컶ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶ꎺ66
ꋙ듓돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뛔GDP뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뛔GDPꆢ맺쏱뺭볃쮮욽뗄쳡짽폐튻뚨뗄폕떼ퟷ폃ꎬ돤럖쿔쪾쇋힡햬튵뛔맺쏱뺭볃뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃ꆣꋚ듓GDP폫힡햬욽뻹볛룱뗄맘쾵살뾴ꎬ힡햬튵뛔맺쏱뺭볃뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃늢늻튻뚨춨맽힡햬볛룱뗄쳡룟살쪵쿖ꎬ짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄짏헇늻쫇맺쏱뺭볃퓶뎤뗄훘튪폕틲ꎬ뷶평짌욷힡햬볛룱짏헇늻쓜듙뷸맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄쳡룟ꎬ랴뛸폐뿉쓜퓶볓돇쫐[51]닺욷뗄짺닺돉놾ꎬퟨ낭뺭볃뗄랢햹ꆣ헢뗣튲놻맺췢뗄뺭퇩쯹횤쪵ꎺ죕놾퓚뒦샭힡햬볛룱폫맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵솽헟뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈랽쏦폐ퟅ돁춴뗄뷌통ꆣ1976ꆫ1990쓪볤죕놾힡햬볛룱돖탸컈뚨뗄짏헇ꎬ뛸맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵좴뺭샺쇋솽룶늨뚯ꎬ헢헽쫇죕놾ꆰ엝쒭뺭볃ꆱ뗄훷튪뇭쿖ꆣ죕놾웟쪮쓪듺훐뫳웚틔벰냋쪮쓪듺훐웚ꎬ랿뗘닺볛룱룟헇폫뺭볃룟쯙퓶뎤춬늽ꎬ뛔폚죕놾웳튵뗄놾믽샛틔벰짺닺킧싊뗄듙뷸웰맽믽벫ퟷ폃ꆣ떫쫇냋쪮쓪듺돵뫍뻅쪮쓪듺돵뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈럅싽틔뫳ꎬ힡햬폫랿뗘닺볛룱죔좻돖탸짏헇ꎬ뒴퓬쇋뗘볛엝쒭폀늻웆쏰뗄짱뮰ꎬ쪹뗃힡햬폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡ퟟ쿲늻헽뎣뗄퓋ퟷꎬ룸죕놾뺭볃뗄뷸튻늽퓶뎤듸살쇋퇏훘뗄뫳맻ꎺ엝쒭웆쏰뫳ꎬ죕놾힡햬폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡퓚헻룶뻅쪮쓪듺돖탸뗍쏔ꎬ컞램웰떽삭뚯뺭볃퓶뎤뗄ퟷ폃ꆣꋛ돇쫐뗄뺭볃랢햹ꆢ맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄쳡룟쫇훐맺짌욷힡햬욽뻹볛룱퓶볓뗄돉틲ꎬ뛸훐맺짌욷힡햬욽뻹볛룱좴뷏듳룅싊뗘좷뚨캪늻쫇GDP뗄Granger풭틲ꎬGDP뛔힡햬욽뻹볛룱쫇튻룶떥쿲틲맻맘쾵ꆣꋜ듓GDP뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ맺볒ꆢ쟸폲믲돇쫐뗄맺쏱뺭볃랢햹퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏쫇짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뇤뮯뗄풭틲ꎬ맺볒ꆢ쟸폲믲돇쫐뗄맺쏱뺭볃랢햹ힴ첬뗄뛱뮯믡쪹짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쪧좥랢햹뗄횧독ꎬ죧1996쓪틔뫳ꎬ좫맺GDP퓶뎤싊솬탸4쓪돖탸쿂뮬ꎬ떽1999쓪쿂뗸떽ퟮ뗍뗣ꎬ[52]캪ꎥꆣ춬쪱ꎬ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯튲퓚1999쓪떽듯뗍뗣ꎻ컒맺GDP퓶뎤싊2000쓪뾪쪼믖뢴ꎬ2001쓪폖쫜떽쫀뷧뺭볃쮥췋뗄돥믷ꎬ짔폐쿂붵ꎬ2002쓪훘탂믖뢴짏짽ꎬ늢뷸죫탂뗄랢햹뷗뛎ꎬ헢폫컒맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮늨뚯폚2000ꆢ2001쓪믖뢴탔엌헻ꎬ2002쓪뫳뿬쯙쿲짏늨뚯뗄첬쫆튻훂ꆣꋝ듓짏뇭튲뿉뾴돶ꎺ맺볒ꆢ쟸폲믲돇쫐뗄맺쏱뺭볃랢햹ힴ첬뗄룄짆좴늢늻믡뇘좻떼훂짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뗄퓶볓ꎬ떫좴틔튻뚨뗄룅싊퓶볓짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽ꎬ쳡룟맺볒ꆢ쟸폲믲돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄맦쒣ꆣ 좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬만뚨닺춶(FAI)쫇뫢솿튻룶맺볒믲뗘쟸튻쓪쓚퓚만뚨닺랽쏦춶ퟜ솿뗄횸뇪,쫇랴펳만뚨닺춶맦쒣ꆢ쯙뛈ꆢ뇈샽맘쾵뫍쪹폃랽쿲뗄ퟛ뫏탔횸뇪ꆣ만뚨67
닺춶룹뻝맺볒뗄춶볆뮮럖캪믹놾붨짨춶ꆢ룼탂룄퓬춶ꆢ랿뗘닺뾪랢춶뫍웤쯻만뚨닺춶쯄늿럖ꆣ튻룶돇쫐뫍쟸폲뫪맛뺭볃ꆢ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄맘쾵럇뎣쏜쟐ꆣ떱맺쏱뺭볃뒦폚삩헅뷗뛎뗄쪱뫲ꎬ돇헲붨짨맦쒣삩듳ꎬ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뫍탨쟳튲믡냩쯦ퟅ퓶볓ꎬ튻랽쏦ꎬ믹놾붨짨춶ꆢ룼탂룄퓬춶ꆢ랿뗘닺뾪랢춶뫍웤쯻만뚨닺춶퓶볓쇋쟸폲믲돇쫐닺욷뗄짺닺쓜솦ꎬ릤ퟷ뎡쯹뫍샍뚯뻍튵죋쫽뗃떽퓶볓ꎬ짺닺싊쳡룟ꎬ쫕죫쮮욽튲믡쯦횮쳡룟ꎬ퓶볓짌욷힡햬뗄탨쟳ꆣ퓚쫐뎡볛횵맦싉뗄ퟷ폃쿂ꎬ짌욷힡햬볛룱붫믡짏짽ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄퓶볓ꎬ튲뿉쓜퓶볓짌욷힡햬뗄뾪랢ꎬ퓶볓짌욷힡햬뗄릩룸ꆣ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬쫇헢솽랽쏦릲춬ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꎬ뻟쳥ퟷ폃뗄쟩탎죧뫎춨맽틔쿂늽훨럖컶ꆣ1ꎩ쫕벯훐맺짌욷힡햬뫍좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄쿠맘쇏쫕벯훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꎨZGXSEꎩꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽ꎨZGXSMJꎩꆢ힡햬볛룱ꎨZGPJJGꎩ틔벰쿠펦뗄좫짧믡만뚨닺춶ꎨZGGDZCTZꎩ뗈ퟷ캪럖컶믹뒡쫽뻝ꆣ2ꎩ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡튪쯘횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩룹뻝쫕벯떽뗄훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뫍좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗈횸뇪ꎬ볬퇩좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뫍훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ뺭맽볆쯣ꎬ뿉뗃좫짧믡만뚨닺춶폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵뗄볬퇩뷡맻ꎬ죧쿂뇭쯹쪾ꆣ뇭3-10 좫짧믡만뚨닺춶폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뇭샠뇰쇣볙짨F춳볆솿룅싊횵돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸늻쫇ZGGDZCTZ뗄풭틲ZGXSE늻쫇ZGGDZCTZ뗄풭틲뇪뛔좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄펰쿬럖컶ZGPJJG늻쫇ZGGDZCTZ뗄풭틲좫짧믡만뚨닺춶ZGGDZCTZ늻쫇ZGXSMJ뗄풭틲뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ZGGDZCTZ늻쫇ZGXSE뗄풭틲횸뇪뗄ퟷ폃럖컶ZGGDZCTZ늻쫇ZGPJJG뗄풭틲럖컶뗄믹뒡쫽뻝살풴ꎺꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꎻꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꆣ뇭훐뗄F춳볆솿뫍룅싊횵캪훍뫳웚iꎽ2뗄쟩탎ꆣ3ꎩ뷡맻뷢쫍룹뻝뇭훐뗄볆쯣뷡맻ꎬ뷡뫏F춳볆솿뫍룅싊횵뗄럖컶틔벰컒맺만뚨닺춶뗄늨뚯ힴ뿶ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶ꎺ68
ꎨ1ꎩ듓짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뛔좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뛔좫짧믡만뚨닺춶폐튻뚨뗄폕떼ퟷ폃ꎬ쮵쏷돇쫐힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뫍쿺쫛뛮뗄퓶뎤듸뚯랿뗘닺춶뫍웤쯻닺튵춶뗄퓶뎤ꎬ뛸헢킩뚼믡듙뷸좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄퓶볓ꆣꎨ2ꎩ듓좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏늻쫇짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뇤뮯뗄풭틲ꎬ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶춨맽웤뫍뺭볃퓶뎤횮볤뗄쿠뮥틀듦ꆢ쿠뢨쿠돐뗄뺭[53]볃맘쾵뛔돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡랢짺볤뷓ퟷ폃ꎬ뛸튻킩맽뿬뗄춶퓶뎤믡퓶볓춨믵엲헍뗄톹솦ꎬ늻믡쳡룟짌욷힡햬뗄쿺쫛솿뫍쿺쫛쏦믽ꆣꎨ3ꎩ듓좫짧믡만뚨닺춶폫힡햬욽뻹볛룱뗄맘쾵살뾴ꎬ돇쫐만뚨닺춶뗄쳡룟쫇훐맺짌욷힡햬욽뻹볛룱퓶볓뗄Granger풭틲ꎬ춬쪱ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬욽뻹볛룱튲뷏듳룅싊뗘좷뚨캪쫇좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뗄Granger풭틲ꎬ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶폫힡햬욽뻹볛룱횮볤쫇튻룶뮥캪틲맻맘쾵ꆣꎨ4ꎩ춶쫇듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤뗄훘튪틲쯘ꎬ쯦ퟅ쫐뎡믺훆뗄훰늽췪짆ꎬ뺭볃퓶뎤뗄훷튪뚯솦볈틀뾿릩룸튻랽ꎬ튲틀뾿탨쟳튻랽ꆣ춶볈쫇믽벫뗄탨쟳틲쯘ꎬ볧뢺웰삩듳쓚탨ꆢ웴뚯쿻럑ꆢ삭뚯뺭볃뗄훘죎ꎬ튲떣뢺ퟅ퓶볓짺닺쓜솦ꆢ쳡룟샍뚯킧싊뗄횰쓜ꆣ폐킧뗄춶췆뚯뺭볃뗄퓶뎤ꎬ듸살죋쏇쫕죫쮮욽뗄쳡룟ꆢ퓶볓힡햬쫐뎡뗄탨쟳ꎬ듙뷸힡햬볛룱짏헇ꎻ맽뿬뗄춶듸살뗄춨믵엲헍ꎬ튲믡틲캪힡햬쫇튻훖쪵컯탔닺뛸쪹힡햬볛룱짏헇ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄짏헇쓜쳡룟힡햬뾪랢뗄쿖쪵샻죳뫍웚췻샻죳ꎬ벤랢춶짌뗄훃튵믲뾪랢뗄죈쟩ꎬ헢퇹룼뷸튻늽퓶볓돇쫐만뚨닺뗄춶ꆣ 돇쫐맦쒣뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬돇쫐맦쒣쫇횸돇쫐죋뿚ퟜ쫽ꆢ돇쫐햼뗘틔벰룷쿮믹뒡짨쪩뗄랶캧뗈쳘헷솿뗄뇭쿖뫍룅삨ꎬ랴펳뗄쫇돇쫐룷튪쯘벯훐뫍삩즢뗄돌뛈ꎬ쫇튻룶몬폐짧믡뺭볃뫍뮷[54]뺳틢틥뗄쫽솿룅쓮ꎬ돇쫐맦쒣튻냣뿉럖캪ퟔ좻맦쒣뫍뺭볃맦쒣솽훖ꆣퟔ좻맦쒣뛠폃돇쫐죋뿚맦쒣믲폃뗘맦쒣살뇭쪾ꆣ돇쫐죋뿚맦쒣쫇돇쫐죋뿚뗄쫽솿ꎬ쯼쫇뫢솿돇쫐맦쒣뗄믹놾횸뇪횮튻ꎬ튲쫇맺볊짏돇쫐맦쒣춳볆뗄춨폃횸뇪ꆣ돇쫐폃뗘맦쒣쫇횸돇쫐쯹햼폃ꆢ쪹폃췁뗘랶캧뗄듳킡ꆣ돇쫐폃뗘맦쒣춬퇹쫇뫢솿돇쫐맦쒣뗄믹놾횸뇪횮튻ꎬ쯼춬죋뿚맦쒣횸뇪튻웰뿉틔돵늽랴펳돇쫐맦쒣뗄듳킡ꆣ튻냣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ돇쫐죋뿚맦쒣풽듳ꎬ폃뗘맦쒣튲듳ꆣ뺭볃맦쒣퓲쫇횸돇쫐뗄뺭볃쪵솦뗄뻟쳥뇭쿖ꎬ뛠폃떥횸뇪뫍뢴뫏횸뇪살뇭쪾ꎬ죧돇쫐닺맦쒣ꆢ돇쫐쫐뎡맦쒣뫍돇쫐뺭볃맦쒣뗈ꆣ돇쫐닺맦쒣쫇횸돇쫐ퟔ짭69
쯹펵폐뗄닆닺맦쒣ꎬ웤훐냼삨만뚨닺뫍쇷뚯닺ꎬ돇쫐닺풽룟ꎬ웤돇쫐맦쒣쿠뛔풽듳ꎬ랴횮틠좻ꆣ쪵볊짏돇쫐닺맦쒣쫇헻룶돇쫐맦쒣뗄뗗쫽ꎬ쫇돇쫐맦쒣삩헅뗄믹뒡ꆣ돇쫐쫐뎡맦쒣쫇횸쫐뎡뗄쫽솿ꆢ뗈벶ꆢ럸짤벰쫐뎡붻틗쇷솿ꎬ쫐뎡맦쒣퓚쿠떱돌뛈짏뻶뚨ퟅ돇쫐맦쒣삩헅쫇럱뻟폐뷏잿뗄헅솦ꎬ쫐뎡맦쒣풽듳ꎬ헢훖헅솦튲풽듳ꎬ듓뛸폐킧뗘랢믓돶맦쒣듳뗄폅쫆ꆣ돇쫐ퟔ좻맦쒣폫뺭볃맦쒣뗄맘쾵쏜늻뿉럖ꎬퟔ좻맦쒣쫇뺭볃맦쒣듦퓚뗄잰쳡뫍믹뒡ꎻ뺭볃맦쒣쫇ퟔ좻맦쒣ퟷ폃뗄췢퓚뇭쿖ꆣ춨뎣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ쫀뷧짏듳뛠쫽맺볒뫢솿돇쫐맦쒣쪱닉폃돇쫐죋뿚쫽솿횸뇪ꎬ평폚컒맺퓚돇쫐춳볆쪱ꎬ돇쫐죋뿚냼삨쇋돇쫐탐헾쟸랶캧쓚뗄쯹폐죋뿚ꎬ볈폐얩튵죋뿚ꎬ튲폐럇얩튵죋뿚ꎬ뛸얩튵죋뿚뗄뛠짙늢늻쓜뫢솿돇쫐뺭볃뗄믮솦ꎬ쟒돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚뫍폃뗘쏦믽뛠짙뎣뎣쓜쳥쿖돶돇쫐뗄짧믡ꆢ뺭볃벰돇쫐뮯쮮욽ꎬ맊놾컄닉폃돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚쫽솿믲돇쫐붨돉쟸쏦믽횸뇪살랴펳돇쫐맦쒣뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯펰쿬뗄쟩뿶ꆣ퓚럖컶돇쫐맦쒣뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬쪱ꎬ쫗쿈쫕벯훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뫍돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚ꎨCSFLRKꎩ뫍돇쫐붨돉쟸쏦믽맦쒣ꎨCSJCQꎩ뗄쿠맘쇏ꎬ틔듋캪믹뒡볬퇩쯼쏇횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ1ꎩ돇쫐맦쒣폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡튪쯘횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뺭맽볆쯣ꎬ뿉뗃돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚뫍돇쫐붨돉쟸쏦믽맦쒣폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵뗄볬퇩뷡맻ꎬ죧뇭3-11쯹쪾ꆣ뇭3-11 돇쫐맦쒣폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뇭샠뇰쇣볙짨F춳볆솿룅싊횵ZGXSMJ늻쫇CSFLRK뗄풭틲돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪뛔돇쫐럇ZGXSE늻쫇CSFLRK뗄풭틲얩튵죋뿚맦쒣뗄펰쿬럖컶ZGPJJG늻쫇CSFLRK뗄풭틲늻쫇ZGXSMJ뗄풭틲돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚맦쒣뛔돇쫐짌욷CSFLRK늻쫇ZGXSE뗄풭틲힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪뗄ퟷ폃럖컶CSFLRK늻쫇ZGPJJG뗄풭틲늻쫇CSJCQMJ뗄풭틲돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪뛔돇쫐붨ZGXSE늻쫇CSJCQMJ뗄풭틲돉쟸폃뗘맦쒣뗄펰쿬럖컶ZGPJJG늻쫇CSJCQMJ뗄풭틲늻쫇ZGXSMJ뗄풭틲돇쫐붨돉쟸폃뗘맦쒣뛔돇쫐짌욷CSJCQMJ늻쫇ZGXSE뗄풭틲힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪뗄ퟷ폃럖컶CSJCQMJ늻쫇ZGPJJG뗄풭틲럖컶뗄믹뒡쫽뻝살풴ꎺꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꎻꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꆣ2ꎩ볬퇩뷡맻뗄뷢쫍룹뻝뇭훐뗄볆쯣뷡맻ꎬ뷡뫏F춳볆솿뫍룅싊횵틔벰힡햬쫐뎡폫돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚ꆢ돇쫐붨돉쟸쏦믽뗄맘쾵럖컶뿉틔뾴돶ꎺ70
ꎨ1ꎩ듓돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮폫돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚맦쒣뗄뮥뚯맘쾵살뾴ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮뛔돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚맦쒣폐튻뚨뗄폕떼ퟷ폃ꎬ랴펳쇋돇쫐짌욷힡햬붻틗뷰뛮쓜늿럖쳥쿖죋쏇뛔캴살돇쫐뺭볃랢햹뫍퓶볓돇쫐뻍튵룚캻뗄탅탄ꆣ뛸돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚맦쒣뛔훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮폐튻뚨뗄펰쿬ꎬ떫펰쿬솦늻듳ꆣꎨ2ꎩ듓돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뛔돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚맦쒣뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뛔돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚맦쒣뗄쳡짽뗄폕떼ퟷ폃폐쿞ꆣꎨ3ꎩ듓돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚맦쒣뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚맦쒣뗄퓶볓쓜퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏쳡룟돇쫐짌욷힡햬뗄쿺쫛쏦믽ꆣ폫쿺쫛뛮뗄럖컶쿠뛔헕뿉횪ꎺ탂퓶뗄럇얩튵죋뿚탨쟳뗄짌욷힡햬볛횵솿늻듳ꎬ뛔뻓힡뗄쏦믽뷏힢훘ꎬ뛸뛔뢽볓뗄짌욷힡햬럾컱볛횵늿럖튪쟳늻룟ꆣꎨ4ꎩ듓돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚맦쒣폫힡햬욽뻹볛룱뗄맘쾵살뾴ꎬ짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄짏헇늻믡듙뷸돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚뗄퓶볓ꎬ랴뛸폐뿉쓜퓶볓돇쫐닺욷뗄짺닺튪쯘돉놾ꎬퟨ낭돇쫐뺭볃뗄랢햹뫍돇쫐샍뚯솦뗄벯뻛ꆣꎨ5ꎩ평폚힡햬쫇죋샠짺듦뇘늻뿉짙뗄컯훊쳵볾ꎬ돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚쫇펰쿬돇쫐힡햬탨쟳뗄훘튪틲쯘ꎬ쯹틔쯦ퟅ럇얩튵죋뿚쫽솿뗄퓶볓ꎬ뛔돇쫐힡햬뗄탨쟳솿튲퓚늻뛏퓶볓ꆣ돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚뗄ퟔ좻뇤뚯ꆢ믺킵뇤뚯뫍짧믡뇤뚯뚼횱뷓뗘펰쿬돇쫐짌욷힡랿뗄탨쟳솿ꎬ돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚뗄늻뛏퓶뎤ꎬ튻랽쏦믡퓬돉돇쫐짌욷힡랿탨쟳솿뗄벫듳퓶뎤ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ믡쳡룟돇쫐쿻럑헟맦쒣뺭볃킧틦ꆢ웳튵맦쒣뺭볃킧틦뫍ퟛ뫏맦쒣킧틦ꎬ힡햬믱좡헽췢늿탔ꎬ쳡룟힡햬럾컱뗄볛횵ꆣ쿻럑헟맦쒣뺭볃킧틦쫇횸돇쫐쿻럑헟틲죋뿚뫍뺭볃믮뚯퓚돇쫐뗄벯훐ꎬ탎돉튻뚨맦쒣뫳뛸믱뗃뗄쫕틦ꎬ냼삨뻍튵믺믡ꆢ믵뇒쫕죫뫍쿭쫜뗄룷훖럾컱ꆣ웳튵맦쒣뺭볃킧틦풴폚솽룶랽쏦ꎬ튻쫇죋뿚맦쒣삩듳캪웳튵벯훐쳡릩룼듳뗄쫐뎡ꎬ춬쪱믹뒡짨쪩럾컱뫍헾뢮릫릲럾컱뗄룄짆ꎬ쪹뻓쏱뫍웳튵쓜쿭쫜뇣샻ꎬ뷚풼춶ꎬ붵뗍짺닺뫍릤ퟷ돉놾ꆣ뛾쫇웳튵벯훐뛸뇋듋쳡릩췢퓚샻틦ꎬ죧짺닺킭ퟷ뗃떽볓잿ꎬ탅쾢뒫뗝쯙뛈볓뿬ꎬ붻춨룼볓뇣뷝ꎬ풭닄쇏뗄믱좡럑폃틔벰럏쇏뗄뒦샭럑폃룼뗍뗈ꎻퟛ뫏맦쒣킧틦쫇횸돇쫐맦쒣듯떽튻뚨돌뛈뫳ꎬ뿉틔돤럖쳥쿖릫릲춶킧틦ꎬ퓶잿돇쫐릦쓜뫍뷚풼돇쫐맜샭럑폃ꆣꎨ6ꎩ폫짏튻뗣쿠맘뗄쫇벴쪹돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚ퟜ솿늻뇤ꎬ떫평폚볒춥뷡릹뗄뇤뮯ꎬ튲믡퓬돉짌욷힡햬탨쟳뗄뇤뮯ꆣꎨ7ꎩ돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚뗄퓶볓쫇훐맺짌욷힡햬욽뻹볛룱퓶볓뗄돉틲ꎬ뛸훐맺짌욷힡햬욽뻹볛룱좴뷏듳룅싊뗘좷뚨캪늻쫇돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚맦쒣뗄Granger풭틲ꎬ돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚맦쒣뛔힡햬욽뻹볛룱쫇튻룶떥쿲틲맻맘쾵ꆣꎨ8ꎩ듓돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮폫돇쫐붨돉쟸맦쒣뗄뮥뚯맘쾵살뾴ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮뛔돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚맦쒣폐튻뚨뗄폕떼ퟷ폃ꎬ랴펳쇋돇쫐짌욷힡햬붻틗뷰71
뛮쓜늿럖쳥쿖죋쏇뛔캴살돇쫐뺭볃랢햹뫍퓶볓돇쫐뻍튵룚캻뗄탅탄ꆣ뛸돇쫐럇얩튵죋뿚맦쒣뛔훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮폐튻뚨뗄펰쿬ꎬ떫펰쿬솦늻듳ꆣꎨ9ꎩ듓돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ쿺쫛뛮폫돇쫐붨돉쟸맦쒣뗄뮥뚯맘쾵살뾴ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ쿺쫛뛮쫇돇쫐붨돉쟸맦쒣뗄폕틲ꎬ랴펳쇋돇쫐힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뫍쿺쫛뛮뗄퓶볓쓜듸뚯돇쫐힡햬폃뗘뫍쿠맘뛾ꆢ죽닺튵폃뗘뗄탨쟳ꎬ삩듳붨돉쟸폃뗘맦쒣ꆣ듓쇭튻뷇뛈살뾴ꎬ붨돉쟸좴늻튻뚨쫇돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뫍쿺쫛뛮뗄Granger풭틲ꎬ틲듋ꎬ돇쫐붨돉쟸뗄쏦믽맦쒣듳늻믡뇘좻떼훂돇쫐짌욷힡햬뗄쿺쫛쏦믽뛠ꆣꎨ10ꎩ듓짏뇭튲뿉뾴돶ꎺ돇쫐붨돉쟸쏦믽쫇짌욷힡햬욽뻹볛룱뗄Granger풭틲ꎬ돇쫐붨돉쟸쏦믽뗄쫊뛈퓶뎤ꎬ믡퓶볓돇쫐폃뗘맦쒣뗄뺭볃킧틦ꎬ돇쫐폃뗘맦쒣뗄뺭볃킧틦쫇평룷뺭볃튪쯘퓚돇쫐뿕볤뗄뻛벯뫍폐킧ퟩ뫏듯떽튻뚨맦쒣쯹듸살뗄샻틦ꎬ벴ힷ볓돉놾뿉틔믱뗃뇈풭폐뷰킧틦룼룟뗄쫕틦ꎬ믲헟늻퓶볓춶ꎬ횻뗷헻풭폐맦쒣뷡릹뛸좡뗃맦쒣퓶틦ꆣꎨ11ꎩ돇쫐짌욷힡햬욽뻹볛룱늻쫇돇쫐붨돉쟸쏦믽뗄Granger돉틲ꎬ돇쫐붨돉쟸쏦믽뛔짌욷힡햬욽뻹볛룱쫇튻룶떥쿲틲맻맘쾵ꆣ틔짏뗄럖컶ꎬ쎻폐붫돇쫐맦쒣삩듳뗄췢퓚돉놾쓚퓚뮯ꎬ틲듋ꎬ듓뢣샻뺭볃뗄뷇뛈뾼싇돇쫐맦쒣쪱ꎬ뮹펦볆쯣돇쫐맦쒣삩헅뗄짧믡돉놾ꆣ 뗚뛾ꆢ죽닺튵랢햹뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬힡햬닺튵짦벰쏦맣ꎬ폐킩탐튵죧풭닄쇏쿻뫄탍탐튵폫힡햬튵쫇뫳쿲맘솪ꎬ뛸폐킩탐튵죧짺믮쿻럑탍ꆢ럾컱탍탐튵폫힡햬튵잰쿲맘솪ꎻ폐킩폫힡햬튵솪쾵쏜쟐ꎬ[55]쟒늻쯦쪱볤ꆢ맺뇰믲뗘쟸뗄룄뇤뛸룄뇤ꎬ죧뷰죚튵ꆢ붨훾튵뗈ꆣ듓맺뇰닮틬뫍뗘쟸닮틬뗄뷇뛈뛸퇔ꎬ늻춬뺭볃랢햹쮮욽쿂힡햬튵뗄쏜쟐맘솪뗄닺튵샠탍벰맘솪뛈폐닮틬ꆣ훐맺뗄힡햬튵뷸죫쫐뎡엤훃풴뗄쪱볤늻뎤ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯랢햹폫뗚뛾ꆢ뗚죽닺튵뗄늨뚯랢햹뻟폐퓵퇹뗄맘쾵쓘ꎿ1ꎩ뗚뛾ꆢ죽닺튵GDP폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뮥뚯맘쾵춨뎣뫢솿뗚뛾ꆢ죽닺튵랢햹뗄훘튪횸뇪쫇뗚뛾ꆢ죽닺튵짺닺ퟜ횵ꎨ뛾닺GDPꆢ죽닺GDPꎩꎬ뗚뛾ꆢ죽닺튵랢햹뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬춨맽틔쿂늽훨럖컶ꆣꎨ1ꎩ쫕벯훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뫍뛾ꆢ죽닺랢햹뗄쿠맘쇏쫕벯훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡틔벰쿠펦뗄뛾ꆢ죽닺랢햹ꎨECGDPꆢSCGDPꎩ뗈횸뇪쫽뻝ퟷ캪믹뒡럖컶쫽뻝ꆣꎨ2ꎩ틲맻맘쾵볬퇩룹뻝쫕벯떽쫽뻝ꎬ볬퇩뛾ꆢ죽닺GDP뫍훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ72
뺭맽볆쯣ꎬ뿉뗃뗚뛾ꆢ죽닺튵GDP폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵뗄볬퇩뷡맻ꎬ죧쿂뇭쯹쪾ꆣ뇭3-12 뗚뛾ꆢ죽닺튵GDP폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뇭샠뇰쇣볙짨F춳볆솿룅싊횵늻쫇ECGDP뗄풭틲돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪뛔돇ZGXSE늻쫇ECGDP뗄풭틲쫐뛾닺튵랢햹뗄펰쿬럖컶ZGPJJG늻쫇ECGDP뗄풭틲늻쫇ZGXSMJ뗄풭틲돇쫐뛾닺튵랢햹뛔돇쫐짌욷ECGDP늻쫇ZGXSE뗄풭틲힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪뗄ퟷ폃럖컶ECGDP늻쫇ZGPJJG뗄풭틲돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪뛔돇ZGXSMJ늻쫇SCGDP뗄풭틲쫐죽닺튵랢햹뗄펰쿬럖컶ZGXSE늻쫇SCGDP뗄풭틲늻쫇SCGDP뗄풭틲돇쫐죽닺튵랢햹뛔돇쫐짌욷SCGDP늻쫇ZGXSMJ뗄풭틲힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪뗄ퟷ폃럖컶SCGDP늻쫇ZGXSE뗄풭틲늻쫇ZGPJJG뗄풭틲럖컶뗄믹뒡쫽뻝살풴ꎺꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꎻꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꆣ2ꎩ뷡맻뷢쫍룹뻝뇭훐뗄볆쯣뷡맻ꎬ뷡뫏F춳볆솿뫍룅싊횵뗄럖컶틔벰컒맺뗚뛾ꆢ죽닺튵뗄랢햹쟩뿶ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶ꎺꋙ듓돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뛔돇쫐뛾ꆢ죽닺튵랢햹뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뛔돇쫐뛾ꆢ죽닺튵랢햹폐튻뚨뗄폕떼ퟷ폃ꎬ쿔쪾쇋힡햬튵뛔웤쯼닺튵뗄듸뚯ퟷ폃ꎬ춬쪱ꎬ뮹랴펳쇋짌욷힡햬쿺쫛솿뫍쿺쫛뛮뗄삩듳뛔뗚뛾닺튵뗄삭뚯ퟷ폃쳥쿖뗃룼캪쏷쿔ꆣꋚ듓뗚뛾ꆢ죽닺튵랢햹뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ뗚뛾ꆢ죽닺튵랢햹퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏쫇짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뇤뮯뗄풭틲ꎬ틲캪힡햬볈쫇튻훖쿻럑욷ꎬ튲쫇튻훖춶욷ꆣ떱뷱쫀뷧죋샠룷훖짺믮뇘탨욷훐볛룱ퟮ캪낺맳쿻럑욷횮튻쫇힡햬ꎬ뛸듳늿럖죋컞램벴쪱쿻럑ꆣ뛸헾뢮뗄횰쓜횮튻쫇놣횤좫쳥맺쏱힡짏폫쪱듺쿠쫊펦뗄랿컝ꎬ늢쯦쪱듺뗄뷸늽폐쯹룄짆ꆣ캪듋ꎬ퓚헾뢮뗄킭뗷쿂ꎬ탭뛠뗚죽닺튵룼캪랢햹ꎬ죧뷰죚튵튪짨램캪릺랿헟쳡릩룷훖탎쪽내뷒듻뿮ꎬꎬ쯦횮랢햹뗄폐힡랿뗖톺듻뿮놣쿕튵ꆢ랿뗘닺움맀튵ꎬ춬쪱캪쇋듙뷸짌욷힡햬뗄쇷뚯탔ꎬ힡햬훐뷩튵ꆢ톯튵뗃떽뎤ퟣ뗄랢햹ꆣ돽듋틔췢ꎬ뛾ꆢ죽닺튵뗄랢햹캪돇쫐뗄뻍튵쳡릩쇋룼뛠뗄믺믡ꎬ삭뚯쇋짌욷힡햬뗄탨쟳ꆣꋛ뗚뛾ꆢ죽닺튵뗄랢햹듙쪹짌욷힡햬욽뻹볛룱쿲짏늨뚯ꎬ헢튻뗣퓚뛾ꆢ죽닺73
GDP폫짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄Granger볬퇩훐뿉틔뾴돶ꆣ솽헟훐폖틔뗚뛾닺튵뛔짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄ퟷ폃룼캪쏷쿔ꆣꋜ듓돇쫐뛾ꆢ죽닺튵랢햹폫힡햬욽뻹볛룱뗄맘쾵살뾴ꎬ짌욷힡햬볛룱늻쫇뗚죽닺튵GDP뗄폕틲ꎬ힡햬튵뛔뗚죽닺튵뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃늢늻튻뚨춨맽힡햬볛룱뗄쳡룟뗃떽뇭쿖ꎬ뷶평짌욷힡햬볛룱짏헇쯤좻믡듸뚯훐뷩튵뗄랢햹ꎬ떫듓ퟜ솿짏뾴ꎬ늻믡듙뷸뗚죽닺튵뗄웕뇩탋췺ꎬ랴뛸폐뿉쓜퓶볓돇쫐죽닺럾컱뗄돉놾ꎬퟨ낭돇쫐웤쯼뗚죽닺튵뗄랢햹ꆣꋝ짌욷힡햬볛룱폐뿉쓜쫇뗚뛾닺튵GDP뗄폕틲ꎬ헢믲탭쫇짌욷힡햬탨쟳뫍볛룱뗄짏헇ꎬ믡듸살뗚뛾닺튵죧붨훾튵ꆢ붨닄튵ꆢ볒뻟튵짵훁볒뗧ꆢힰ쫎튵뗈닺횵뗄듳럹뛈쳡룟ꆣ 돇쫐뻓쏱쫕죫뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬돇쫐힡햬쫇돇쫐뻓쏱쿻럑훐뗄훘튪늿럖ꎬ룹뻝뺭볃톧뗄믹놾풭샭ꎬ뻓힡쿻럑컞틉튪쫜떽돇쫐뻓쏱죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫폫볒춥쫕죫뗄펰쿬ꎬ맺쓚췢탭뛠퇐뺿힡햬닺튵뗄컄쿗뚼붫뻓쏱뗄쫕죫ퟷ캪힡햬닺튵뗄훷튪펰쿬틲ퟓꎬ2001쓪ꎬ쇵폀욽룹뻝뾭뛷쮹탨쟳샭싛ꎬ붫쫕죫럖캪죕뎣쿻럑ꆢ뒢탮뫍춶믺죽늿럖ꎬ첽쳖쫕죫폫랿뗘닺탨[56]쟳뗄몯쫽맘쾵ꎻ2005쓪ꎬ샮맰뻽붫뻓쏱쫕죫뫍뻓쏱뒢탮ퟷ캪뫢솿뻓쏱릺싲쓜솦[57]뗄훷튪횸뇪ꎬ첽쳖쇋웤폫힡햬닺튵퓶뎤뗄맘쾵ꆣ뮹폐볒ꆢ톧헟퓚퇐뺿훐닉폃[58]쇋뫢솿힡랿뿉돐쫜탔뗄ퟮ뎣볻횸뇪ꆪꆪ힡랿볛룱쫕죫뇈ꆣ춨맽뾼달힡랿볛룱폫쫕죫뗄뇈횵ꎬ랴펳돶힡랿뗄뿉돐쫜탔ꎬ랴펳돶붵뗍힡랿볛룱폫쫕죫뇈뗄튻킩틲쯘ꎬ듓뛸쪹쓜릻릺싲믲ퟢ쇞쫊떱뫏룱힡랿뗄죋뗄뇈샽뗃틔쳡룟ꆣ룃횸뇪쫇맺볊짏춨폃뗄움볛힡햬쿻럑뗄ퟮ캪훘튪뗄횸뇪ꎬ쯼쯹냼몬뗄탅쾢솿뫜듳ꎺ퓚웤쯻쳵볾쿠춬뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ힡랿볛룱폫쫕죫뇈횵룟쪱ꎬ틢캶ퟅ폐쓜솦릺싲힡랿뗄죋퓚헻룶죋뿚훐쯹햼뇈샽뷏뗍ꎻ헢룶횸뇪튲랴펳돶힡랿릦쓜쫇럱쪧뗷ꎬ틔벰헾뢮힡랿헾닟쫇럱듦퓚쪧컳ꆣ뇈죧ꎬ떱뇈횵뫜룟쪱ꎬ쯼뇭쪾힡랿릩룸쾵춳쫜떽쿞훆ꎬ늻쓜폐킧뗘싺ퟣ탨쟳ꎬ헢쫇탭뛠쫐뎡뺭볃폫볆뮮뺭볃맺볒뺭뎣돶쿖뗄쿖쿳ꆣ죧맻뇈횵틬뎣뗍ꎬ퓲쿔쪾힡랿뗄튵좨쎻폐놣헏ꎬ듓뛸떼훂힡랿춶틢풸붵뗍ꎬ틔벰힡랿훊솿뗄붵뗍ꆣ맺췢훸쏻톧헟뫍뺭퇩탔뗘쳖싛쇋쫕죫폫힡햬쿻럑횮볤뗄[59]맘쾵ꎬ뗃돶24ꆫ34쯪볒춥뗄힡햬쿻럑뗄쫕죫떯탔캪ꎬZabel뗈죋듓힡햬쿻[60]럑몯쫽돶랢럖컶쇋쫕죫뛔힡햬볛룱틔벰쿻럑솿뗄펰쿬ꆣ틔짏뗄퇐뺿뚼틔쫕죫폫힡햬쫐뎡듦퓚좷뚨탔맘쾵ퟷ캪잰쳡뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ떫뛔헢훖맘쾵뗄뿉뾿탔좴늢캴뷸탐첽쳖ꎬ놾뷚벴쫇헫뛔듋컊쳢ꎬ볬퇩돇쫐죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뮥뚯맘쾵74
튻냣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ힡햬쿻럑뗄믹놾떥캻쫇볒춥ꎬ돇쫐뻓쏱볒춥죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫쫇뫢솿돇쫐힡햬릺싲솦뗄훘튪횸뇪ꎬ튲쫇횧독돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄훘튪횸뇪ꆣ돇쫐뻓쏱볒춥죋뻹쓪뿉횧엤쫕죫ꎬ횸놻뗷닩뗄돇쫐볒춥뻓쏱퓚횧뢶룶죋쯹뗃쮰ꆢ닆닺쮰벰웤쯻뺭뎣탔틆횧돶뫳쯹폠쿂뗄쪵볊쫕죫ꎬ뿉틔헦쪵뗘랴펳뻓쏱뗄짌욷힡햬쪵볊릺싲쓜솦ꆣ놾컄틔돇쫐뻓쏱죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫ퟷ캪럖컶뗄횸뇪ꆣ1ꎩ쫕벯훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뫍돇쫐뻓쏱볒춥죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫뗄쿠맘쇏쫕벯훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡틔벰돇쫐뻓쏱볒춥죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫ꎨCSJMSRꎩ뗈횸뇪쫽뻝ퟷ캪믹뒡럖컶쫽뻝ꆣ2ꎩ틲맻맘쾵볬퇩룹뻝쫕벯떽쫽뻝ꎬ볬퇩돇쫐뻓쏱볒춥죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫뫍훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ뺭맽볆쯣ꎬ뿉뗃돇쫐뻓쏱볒춥죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵뗄볬퇩뷡맻ꎬ죧뇭3-13쯹쪾ꆣ뇭3-13 돇쫐볒춥죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뇭훍뫳2쓪훍뫳3쓪샠뇰쇣볙짨F춳볆솿룅싊횵F춳볆솿룅싊횵ZGXSMJ늻쫇돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡CSJMSR뗄풭틲횸뇪뛔돇쫐죋뻹뿉ZGXSE늻쫇횧엤쫕죫뗄펰쿬럖CSJMSR뗄풭틲컶ZGPJJG늻쫇뗄풭틲CSJMSR늻쫇돇쫐죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕ZGXSMJ뗄풭틲죫뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬CSJMSR늻쫇쫐뎡횸뇪뗄ퟷ폃럖ZGXSE뗄풭틲컶CSJMSR늻쫇뗄풭틲럖컶뗄믹뒡쫽뻝살풴ꎺꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꎻꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꆣ3ꎩ뷡맻뷢쫍룹뻝뇭훐뗄볆쯣뷡맻ꎬ뷡뫏F춳볆솿뫍룅싊횵뗄럖컶ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶돇쫐뻓쏱볒춥죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣꎨ1ꎩ듓돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫쫇짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뇤뮯뗄Granger풭틲ꎬ틲캪돇쫐뻓쏱죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫횱뷓뻶뚨쇋뻓쏱뗄릺싲솦ꎬ뛸릺싲솦쮮욽폖뻶뚨쇋쓜럱냑잱퓚탨쟳뮯캪짌욷힡햬뗄폐킧탨쟳ꆣ돇쫐뻓쏱쫕죫쮮욽룟ꎬ횧뢶쓜솦잿ꎬ뛔힡햬뗄탨쟳쏦믽뻍듳ꎬ랴횮퓲킡ꆣ75
ꎨ2ꎩ듓돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뛔돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뛔돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫폐튻뚨뗄폕떼ퟷ폃ꎬ쿔쪾쇋힡햬닺튵뗄랢햹뛔퓶볓붨훾튵ꆢ룖쳺튵뗈쇬폲뻍튵뗄죋뿚뫍쫕죫쮮욽ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄랱죙폐샻폚랢믓돋쫽킧펦ꎬ뿉틔웰떽뛔돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫뗄튻뚨뗄삭뚯ퟷ폃ꆣꎨ3ꎩ듓짏뇭뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽폫돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫뿉쓜듦퓚튻훖뮥캪틲맻맘쾵ꆣꎨ4ꎩ듓돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫뛔힡햬욽뻹볛룱뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫쫇짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄폕틲ꎬ돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫쮮욽뗄쳡룟ꎬ폐뷏듳뗄룅싊췆뚯짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄짏헇ꆣꎨ5ꎩ짌욷힡햬볛룱늻쫇돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫폕틲뗄룅싊뷏듳ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄짏헇늻믡뇘좻듸살돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫뗄쳡룟ꆣꎨ6ꎩ듓틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뇭뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫폫힡햬욽뻹볛룱횮볤듦퓚튻훖떥쿮틲맻맘쾵ꆣ 뷰죚튵랢햹뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬힡햬튵뻟폐짺닺ꆢ붻뮻ꆢ쿻럑뗈맽돌ꎬ맡뒩헢룶맽돌뗄놾퓋뚯뿍맛짏탨튪틸탐뗈뷰죚믺릹캪웤쳡릩놾죚춨럾컱ꆣ힡햬튵폫웤쯼탐튵늻춬ꎬ뻟폐짺닺훜웚뎤ꆢ놾햼폃솿듳ꆢ뗘폲탔잿뗈쳘뗣ꆣ틲듋ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹샫늻뾪뷰죚뗄횧돖ꎬ뛔뷰죚뗄틀삵탔잿ꆣ훐맺뗄힡햬쫐뎡폫뷰죚듻뿮뗄맘쾵쫇럱듦퓚ퟅ튻룶춬쪱뮥뚯뗄맘쾵쓘ꎿ튪믘듰헢룶컊쳢ꎬ뻍탨튪뛔웤맘쾵뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ1ꎩ좷뚨뷰죚튵랢햹뗄듺뇭탔횸뇪쳥쿖뷰죚튵랢햹뗄횸뇪폐탭뛠ꎬ죧뷰죚튵듻뿮폠뛮ꆢ탂퓶뷰죚튵듻뿮ꆢ뒢탮듦뿮폠뛮뗈ꆣ폐킩횸뇪죧뒢탮듦뿮폠뛮폫뻓쏱뗄쫕죫뫍힡햬뗄쿻럑쓜솦쿠맘ꎬ퓚듋늻훘뢴쳖싛ꆣ놾컄훐캪뇣폚좡뗃춳볆쫽뻝ꎬ늢뇭쿖맽좥뫍쿖퓚뗄듻뿮쟩뿶ꎬ닉폃뷰죚튵듻뿮폠뛮ꎨJRDKYEꎩퟷ캪럖컶뗄믹뒡횸뇪ꆣ2ꎩ틲맻맘쾵볬퇩룹뻝쫕벯떽쫽뻝ꎬ볬퇩뷰죚튵듻뿮폠뛮뫍훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ뺭맽볆쯣ꎬ뿉뗃뷰죚튵듻뿮폠뛮폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵뗄볬퇩뷡맻ꎬ죧뇭3ꎭ14쯹쪾ꆣ3ꎩ뷡맻뷢쫍룹뻝뇭훐뗄볆쯣뷡맻ꎬ뷡뫏F춳볆솿뫍룅싊횵뗄럖컶ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶뷰죚튵듻뿮폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ76
뇭3-14 돇쫐뷰죚튵듻뿮폠뛮폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뇭훍뫳1쓪훍뫳3쓪샠뇰쇣볙짨F춳볆F춳볆룅싊횵룅싊횵솿솿돇쫐짌욷힡햬늻쫇JRDKYE뗄풭틲쫐뎡횸뇪뛔뷰ZGXSE늻쫇JRDKYE뗄풭틲죚튵듻뿮폠뛮ZGPJJG늻쫇JRDKYE뗄풭틲뗄펰쿬럖컶뷰죚튵듻뿮폠JRDKYE늻쫇ZGXSMJ뗄풭틲뛮뛔돇쫐짌욷JRDKYE늻쫇ZGXSE뗄풭틲힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪JRDKYE늻쫇ZGPJJG뗄풭틲뗄ퟷ폃럖컶럖컶뗄믹뒡쫽뻝살풴ꎺꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꎻꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꆣꎨ1ꎩ듓돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뛔뷰죚튵듻뿮뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뛔뷰죚튵듻뿮폐튻뚨뗄폕떼ퟷ폃ꎬ뇭쏷힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹ꎬ샫늻뾪뷰죚튵뗄횧돖ꎬ뛸힡햬쫐뎡퓲폖쫇뷰죚튵뷨듻놾뗄ퟮ듳돶슷ꆣ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡랢햹쓜췆뚯쇋뷰죚튵뗄랢햹ꎬ삭뚯뷰죚듻뿮뗄탨쟳ꎬ웰떽뛔뷰죚튵듻뿮튻뚨뗄삭뚯ퟷ폃ꆣꎨ2ꎩ듓뷰죚튵듻뿮뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뗄Granger볬퇩뷡맻살뾴ꎬ퓚뛌웚뗄듻뿮뛮뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬뗄쿺쫛쏦믽쓜듸살튻뚨펰쿬ꎬ뛸듓2쓪틔짏뗄훍뫳웚듻뿮뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ뷰죚튵듻뿮좴늻쫇짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뇤뮯뗄Granger풭틲ꎬ뇭쏷솽쓪잰뷰죚듻뿮뗄퓶볓ꎬ늻튻뚨믡듸살떱웚힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뗄퓶볓ꆣꎨ3ꎩ듓짏뇭훍뫳3쓪뗄뷡맻뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뛔뷰죚튵듻뿮뷏듳뿉쓜듦퓚튻훖떥쿲틲맻맘쾵ꆣꎨ4ꎩ헫뛔뇭훐뷰죚튵듻뿮뛔힡햬욽뻹볛룱뗄펰쿬뛸퇔ꎬ퓚뛌웚쓚ꎬ뷰죚튵듻뿮뗄퓶볓폐뷏듳뗄룅싊떼훂짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄짏헇ꎬ뛸듓2쓪틔짏뗄쪱볤럖컶ꎬ뷰죚튵듻뿮좴늻쫇짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄폕틲ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚힡햬뷰죚쫐뎡뮯뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬ쫊뛈뗷헻뷰죚듻뿮뗄뛮뛈폐샻폚뗷뿘힡햬뗄뛌웚볛룱쮮욽ꆣꎨ5ꎩ듓뛌웚살뾴ꎬ짌욷힡햬볛룱뛔뷰죚듻뿮뛮듦퓚튻뚨틲맻맘쾵ꎬ듓뷏뎤웚살뾴ꎬ짌욷힡햬볛룱늻쫇뷰죚튵듻뿮폕틲뗄룅싊뷏듳ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄짏헇늻믡뇘좻듸살뷰죚튵듻뿮뛮뗄돖탸쳡룟ꆣ77
랿뗘닺뺭볃뇤솿폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯맘쾵뗄볆솿럖컶랿뗘닺뺭볃뇤솿쫇뿌뮭랿뗘닺뺭볃쫴탔ꎬ뇭쿖랿뗘닺춶ꆢ뾪랢ꆢ붻틗ꆢ뺭펪맜샭ힴ뿶뗄뇤솿ꆣ쿖뷗뛎ꎬ헢샠뇤솿폐랿뗘닺뾪랢힡햬춶ꆢ랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮폠뛮ꆢ탂퓶랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮뛮ꆢ룶죋힡랿듻뿮폠뛮ꆢ췁뗘붻틗뷰뛮ꆢ짌욷랿쿺쫛뷰뛮ꆢ짌욷랿쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ짌욷랿풤쫛쏦믽ꆢ짌욷랿엺ힼ풤쫛쏦믽ꆢ짌욷랿쿖쫛쏦믽ꆢ냬릫폃랿쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ냬릫폃랿쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌튵폃랿쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ짌튵폃랿쿺쫛뛮ꆢ랿컝뾢릤쏦믽ꆢ랿컝쪩릤쏦믽ꆢ짌욷랿뿕훃쏦믽ꆢ닰잨붨훾쏦믽ꆢ냬릫폃랿ퟢ쇞붨훾쏦믽ꆢ냬릫폃랿ퟢ쇞ퟢ뷰ꆢ짌럾폃랿ퟢ쇞붨훾쏦믽ꆢ짌럾폃랿ퟢ쇞ퟢ뷰ꆢ랿닺웵쮰ꆢ랿뗘닺붨짨쿮쒿엺ힼ폃뗘쏦믽ꆢ랿뗘닺쿮쒿릤돌엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽뗈횸뇪ꆣ헢킩횸뇪훐ꎬ랿뗘닺뷰죚샠횸뇪퓚폐뗄돇쫐듓2000쓪틔살닅뾪쪼춳볆ꎬ릫뾪돶죃췁뗘뗄쟩뿶ퟔ2001쓪틔살닅뾪쪼훰늽맦랶ꎬ랿컝ퟢ쇞쫐뎡횸뇪뗄춳볆ퟔ1998쓪닅훰늽워뾪ꆣ퓚놾컄훐ꎬ룹뻝횸뇪뗄틗뗃탔ꆢ뿉닙ퟷ탔ꆢ듺뇭탔ꆢ훘튪탔풭퓲ꎬ훷튪쳖싛췁뗘붻틗ꆢ랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ쏦믽ꆢ랿컝닰잨맦쒣ꆢ냬릫폃랿쫐뎡뫍짌튵폃랿쫐뎡뗈폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄뮥뚯맘쾵ꆣ 췁뗘붻틗뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬짌욷힡햬볛룱훐췁뗘볛룱햼폐튻뚨뗄럝뛮ꎬ쏀맺힡햬볛룱릹돉튻냣냼삨짺뗘좡뗃럑ꆢ췁뗘뾪랢욽헻럑ꆢ붨훾짨볆럑ꆢ랿컝붨퓬럑ꆢ뷰죚돉놾뗈뗈ꆣ쏀맺뗘볛햼랿볛뗄뇈샽뇈뷏뗍ꎬ뎤웚엇뮲퓚20ꎥꆫ30ꎥꎬ뛸랿컝붨퓬돉놾(냼삨붨훾돉놾폫뷰죚돉놾뗈)뇈뷏룟ꎬ풼햼랿볛뗄50ꎥꆫ70ꎥꆣ뻝쏀맺힡랿붨훾헟킭믡(NationalAssociation of Home Builder)뛔힡랿붨퓬돉놾뗄뗷닩ꎬ뗘볛퓚튻뚰탂랿퓬볛훐뗄뇈샽ꎺ1949쓪캪11ꎥꎬ1969쓪캪21ꎥꎬ1988쓪캪27ꎥꎬ1996쓪풼28ꎥꆣ쏀맺뗘볛햼랿볛뗄뇈샽ꎬ볈폫쿠뛔뇈뷏돤ퟣ뗄췁뗘풴폐맘ꎬ튲폫웤듻뿮헾닟폐룼듳뗄맘쾵ꆣ틸탐튻냣쟩뿶쿂퓚뗘볛뎬돶늻뚯닺ퟜ쫛볛뗄25ꎥꆫ30ꎥ쪱늻믡듻뿮룸뾪랢짌ꆣ뻝펢맺뾪랢짌킭믡(Association of British Developers)뗄뗷닩ꎬ뗘볛햼헻룶랿볛뗄뇈샽튻횱퓚퓶뎤ꆣ퓚펢맺뗄컷놱늿ꎬ뗘볛햼랿볛뗄뇈샽듓1960쓪뗄4ꎥꆫ10ꎥ짏짽떽1990쓪뗄25ꎥꆫ30ꎥꆣ퓚펢맺싗뛘듳뚼쫐쟸ꎬ뗘볛햼랿볛뗄뇈샽듓1960[61]쓪뗄10ꎥꆫ12ꎥ짏짽떽1970쓪뗄30ꎥꆫ35ꎥꆣ몫맺훷튪돇쫐뗘볛퓚랿볛뗄뇈샽뷏룟ꎬ튻냣뚼듯떽50ꎥꆫ60ꎥꎬ싌듸폫뾪랢쿞훆쟸폲훆뛈쫇웤훷튪풭틲횮튻ꆣ뻝죕놾춨닺쪡폫죕놾틸탐1998쓪뗄뗷닩ꎬ죕놾룷훷튪돇쫐뗘볛퓚랿볛훐뗄뇈샽뚼뇈뷏룟ꎬ뗘볛풼햼랿볛뗄60ꎥꆫ75ꎥꎬ폈웤쫇뚫뺩ꎬ뗘볛퓚랿볛훐뗄뇈샽룼룟듯78
65ꎥꆫ80ꎥꆣ룷룶맺볒췁뗘릩쟳맘쾵벰힡랿뗄붨훾훊솿늻춬ꎬ쿻럑쟣쿲늻춬ꆢ췁뗘붻틗랽쪽ꆢ폃뗘잿뛈뚼믡폐쯹닮틬ꎬ뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄펰쿬튲늻춬ꆣퟛ맛쫀뷧룷맺뗘볛폫힡랿볛룱뗄맘쾵ꎬ뿉틔붫웤럖돉4샠ꎺ튻쫇뗘볛뗍랿볛튲뗍뗄맺볒ꎬ죧죰뗤ꎻ뛾쫇뗘볛뗍랿볛늻뗍뗄맺볒ꎬ죧쏀맺ꎻ죽쫇뗘볛룟랿볛늻룟뗄맺볒ꎬ죧탂볓웂폫펢맺ꎻ쯄쫇뗘볛룟랿볛튲룟뗄맺볒ꎬ죧몫맺폫죕놾ꆣ훐맺쒿잰힡햬쫐뎡훐ꎬ짌욷힡햬폃뗘뗄붻틗닉좡헐엄맒뗄랽쪽뷸탐ꆣ엄싴램쫇웤훐횮튻ꎬ쯼뗄뫃뒦쫇뇈뷏릫욽ꆢ릫뾪ꆢ춸쏷ꆢ믺믡뻹뗈ꎬ쯼뗄맦퓲볲떥ꎬ늻첫죝틗쫜럇쫐뎡틲쯘뗄룉죅ꎻ헐뇪붻틗랽쪽뗄릫욽릫뾪믺믡뻹뗈ꆢ헐뇪볛룱믲웤쯻횸뇪평뺺헹탎돉ꆢ믺훆뫃ꆢ뿉냼몬뛠쒿뇪뺺헹ꆢ틽떼짧믡ퟷ폃듳ꎻ맒없붻틗랽쪽쫇2000쓪잰뫳췁뗘붻틗뗄튻룶뒴탂ꎬ헢훖랽쪽쫇쿈뚨튻룶췁뗘볛룱ꎬ릫쪾튻뛎쪱볤ꎬ죧맻폐죋풸틢돶룼룟뗄볛ꎬ뿉틔햪없ꆣ헢훖붻틗쪱볤뇈뷏뎤ꎬ떫폖쫇늻첫벤쇒뗄릫뾪릫욽뗄붻틗랽쪽ꆣ웤쳘뗣뻍쫇릫욽릫뾪ꎬ믺믡뻹뗈ꎬ춬쪱맦퓲볲떥ꎬ떫닙ퟷ뗄뮷뷚뇈뷏뛠ꎬ틲캪랴뢴퓚맒ꎬ죝틗쫜럇쫐뎡틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ좱뗣쫇맒없틔[62]잰뗄낵쿤닙ퟷꆢ쿞훆쳵볾뇈뷏뛠ꆢ죝틗뛔뫅죫ퟹꆢ맽돌릫욽ꆢ뷡맻늻릫욽ꆣ쯼쫊폃폚쳵볾뇈뷏뢴퓓ꎬ폐돵늽폃뗘틢쿲헟믲폐틅쇴컊쳢뗄뗘뿩붻틗ꆣ퓚췁뗘붻틗훐ꎬ뮹폐튻훖랽쪽뻍쫇킭틩돶죃ꆣ맦퓲뇈뷏볲떥ꎬ닙ퟷ뮷뷚뇈뷏짙ꎬힼ놸맽돌튲볲떥ꎬ돉놾뗍ꎬ뛸쟒뿉틔쪵쿖탭뛠짧믡쒿뇪ꎬ뛔짧믡뗄틽떼ퟷ폃듳ꆣ떫듦퓚낵쿤닙ퟷꆢ뗍볛돶죃ꆢ늻릫욽뗈컊쳢ꆣ쓇쎴퓚쒿잰췁뗘붻틗쟩탎쿂ꎬ훐맺돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡폫췁뗘붻틗듦퓚튻훖쪲쎴맘쾵쓘ꎿ헢룶컊쳢뚨탔퇐뺿뷏뛠ꎬ뚨솿퇐뺿좴뷏짙ꆣ놾컄듓훐맺돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡폫췁뗘죃쫕죫횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵죫쫖럖컶솽헟뗄맘쾵ꆣ1ꎩ틲맻맘쾵볬퇩훐맺뗄췁뗘쫐뎡뺭샺쇋뷼20쓪뗄랢햹ꎬ훰늽ퟟ쿲쇋맦랶랢햹뗄맬뗀ꎬ췁뗘붻틗뛮훰쓪퓶볓ꎬ랴펳췁뗘붻틗쫐뎡뗄횸뇪폐릫뾪돶죃췁뗘쏦믽ꆢ돶죃뛮틔벰췁뗘죃쫕죫뗈횸뇪ꎬ평폚훐맺췁뗘헐엄맒쫇21쫀볍돵뾪쪼ꎬ틲듋릫뾪돶죃췁뗘쏦믽ꆢ돶죃뛮춳볆횸뇪쓑틔좫쏦랴펳췁뗘쫐뎡뗄ힴ뿶ꎬ퓚놾컄럖컶훐톡퓱랿뗘닺뾪랢뺭펪뗄췁뗘죃쫕죫캪믹뒡ꎬ럖컶웤폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻뮥뚯맘쾵ꆣ뺭맽볆쯣ꎬ뿉뗃췁뗘죃쫕죫ꎨTDZRSRꎩ폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵뗄볬퇩뷡맻ꎬ죧뇭3ꎭ15쯹쪾ꆣ2ꎩ뷡맻뷢쫍룹뻝뇭훐뗄볆쯣뷡맻ꎬ뷡뫏F춳볆솿뫍룅싊횵뗄럖컶ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶췁뗘죃쫕죫폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣꎨ1ꎩ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡폫췁뗘죃쫕죫횮볤늻뷶듦퓚튻훖뮥캪틲맻뗄맘쾵ꎬ79
뛸쟒힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹뛔췁뗘죃쫕죫뗄ퟷ폃뇈췁뗘죃쫕죫뛔힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뗄ퟷ폃뇭쿖뗃룼캪쏷쿔ꆣ뇭3-15 췁뗘죃쫕죫폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뇭샠뇰쇣볙짨F춳볆솿룅싊횵돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸늻쫇TDZRSR뗄풭틲늻쫇TDZRSR뗄풭틲8.뇪뛔췁뗘죃쫕죫뗄펰쿬럖컶ZGPJJG늻쫇TDZRSR뗄풭틲췁뗘죃쫕죫뛔돇쫐TDZRSR늻쫇ZGXSMJ뗄풭틲짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪뗄331TDZRSR늻쫇ZGXSE뗄풭틲.ퟷ폃럖컶TDZRSR늻쫇ZGPJJG뗄풭틲럖컶뗄믹뒡쫽뻝살풴ꎺꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꎻꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꆣꆶ훐맺쫐뎡춳볆쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꆣꎨ2ꎩ듓돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뛔췁뗘죃쫕죫뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뛔췁뗘죃쫕죫폐튻뚨뗄폕떼ퟷ폃ꎬ뇭쏷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뗄퓶볓ꎬ폐뷏듳뗄뿉쓜퓶볓췁뗘뗄쫕죫ꎬ듙뷸췁뗘쫐뎡뗄랱죙ꆣꎨ3ꎩ듓췁뗘죃쫕죫뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뗄볬퇩뷡맻살뾴ꎬ췁뗘붻틗뗄믮풾뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬뗄쿺쫛쏦믽뫍쿺쫛뛮쓜듸살튻뚨펰쿬ꎬ퓶볓돇쫐뻓쏱뛔캴살뗄솼뫃풤웚ꎬ첧룟돇쫐쾡좱탔풴ꆪꆪ췁뗘뗄볛룱ꎬ랴맽살ퟷ폃폚힡햬쫐뎡ꎬ듸살짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ쿺쫛뛮뗄퓶볓ꆣꎨ4ꎩ헫뛔뇭훐췁뗘죃쫕죫뛔힡햬욽뻹볛룱뗄펰쿬뛸퇔ꎬ췁뗘죃쫕죫뗄퓶볓폐튻뚨뗄룅싊떼훂짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄짏헇ꆣꎨ5ꎩ짌욷힡햬볛룱뛔췁뗘죃쫕죫듦퓚튻뚨뗄틲맻맘쾵ꎬ짌욷힡햬볛룱쫇췁뗘죃쫕죫폕틲뗄룅싊뷏듳ꎬ떫돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄짏헇늻믡뇘좻듸살췁뗘죃쫕죫뛮뗄돖탸쳡룟ꆣ 랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ쏦믽뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬랿뗘닺붨짨쿮쒿엺ힼ폃뗘쏦믽ꆢ랿뗘닺쿮쒿릤돌엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽쫇돇쫐췁뗘맦뮮맜샭늿쏅룹뻝돇쫐랿뗘닺쫐뎡랢햹쟩뿶뫍돇쫐룷쿮붨짨랢햹탨튪뷸탐뗄ퟛ뫏탔늿쫰횮튻ꎬ쯼튲쫇돇쫐췁뗘맦뮮맜샭뗄훘튪횸뇪ꆣ쯼쫇퓚얪쟥붨짨폃뗘쿖ힴ뫍랿뗘닺쫐뎡믹놾탨쟳ힴ뿶ꆢ샭탔풤닢돇쫐캴살폃뗘탨쟳ꆢ뺫탄늼뻖ꆢ뫏샭럖쟸ꆢ샭쮳룷쿮맦뮮맘쾵늢쫊떱쇴폐폠뗘뗄믹뒡짏뇠훆뛸돉ꆣ돇쫐췁뗘맦뮮쯤좻폫힡햬쫐뎡뗄쓚몭늻춬ꎬ떫솽헟맘쾵쏜쟐ꆣ돇쫐췁뗘맦뮮80
횼퓚룹뻝돇쫐뗄뺭볃뫍짧믡랢햹쒿뇪ꎬ내헕뿆톧탔ꆢ잰햰탔ꆢ뿉닙ퟷ탔쿠뷡뫏뗄튪쟳ꎬ춳돯낲업돇쫐뗄룷샠폃뗘뫍뿕볤풴ꎬퟛ뫏늿쫰룷쿮붨짨ꎬ쪵쿖돇쫐뺭볃뫍짧믡뗄뿉돖탸랢햹ꆣ웤믹놾풭퓲쫇뷚풼뫍뫏샭샻폃췁뗘벰뿕볤풴ꆣ돇쫐췁뗘맦뮮쫇붨짨돇쫐뫍맜샭돇쫐뗄믹놾틀뻝ꎬ쫇놣횤돇쫐췁뗘뫏샭샻폃뫍뾪랢뺭펪믮뚯킭뗷뷸탐뗄잰쳡뫍믹뒡ꎬ쫇쪵쿖돇쫐뺭볃뫍짧믡랢햹쒿뇪뗄훘튪쫖뛎ꆣ횻폐뿆톧맦뮮ꎬ닅쓜헽좷뗘횸떼돇쫐붨짨뫍맜샭ꎬ폐킧뗘쳡룟돇쫐뗄뺭볃[63]킧틦ꆢ짧믡킧틦뫍뮷뺳킧틦ꆣ짌욷힡햬붨짨쫇내돇쫐췁뗘맦뮮뫍돇쫐뻓쏱짺믮뫍랢햹뗄탨튪ꎬ뛔췁뗘뫍뗘짏붨훾컯ꆢ릹훾컯벰돇쫐믹뒡짨쪩뗈뷸탐뾪랢붨짨뗄튻쿮ퟛ뫏탔짧믡믮뚯ꆣ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뻍쫇평힡햬춶붨짨뗄훷쳥ꆢ탨쟳힡햬뗄웳튵ꆢ떥캻ꆢ췅쳥믲룶죋쯹탎돉뗄붻뮻맘쾵뗄ퟜ뫍ꆣ퓚햽싔짏ꎬ돇쫐췁뗘맦뮮폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄돶랢뗣룷늻쿠춬ꆣ뻟쳥돇쫐맦뮮폃뗘횸뇪뗄뇠훆닠훘폚듓뫪맛뗄뷇뛈럖컶돇쫐뗄췁뗘뫍뿕볤랢햹쳵볾ꎬ좷뚨폃뗘뗄맦쒣뫍샻폃잿뛈ꎻ뛸짌욷힡햬쫐뎡퓲평뛠룶캢맛훷쳥믮뚯쯹탎돉뗄붻뮻맘쾵뗄ퟜ뫍ꆣ튻룶쫇듓뫪맛떽캢맛ꎬ튻룶쫇듓캢맛떽뫪맛ꆣ듓킧틦살뾴ꎬ돇쫐붨짨폃뗘맦뮮횸뇪뗄뇠훆힢훘퇐뺿돇쫐폃뗘뗄뺭볃킧틦ꆢ짧믡킧틦뫍뮷뺳킧틦뗄쿠뮥춳튻ꎬ닠훘폚퇐뺿붵뗍짧믡뇟볊돉놾ꎬ쳡룟췁뗘헻쳥ퟛ뫏킧틦ꎻ뛸힡햬쫐뎡뿉쪵쿖믲랴펳힡햬캪돇쫐뻓쏱쳡릩뗄킧폃틔벰뾪랢쿮쒿ꆢ뾪랢웳튵뗄뺭볃킧틦ꆣ퓚풴뗄엤훃랽쪽짏뾴ꎬ돇쫐췁뗘맦뮮쯤좻퓚훆뚨쪱뾼싇쇋쫐뎡뗄탐쟩ꎬ떫쯼룼힢훘폃볆뮮뗄쫖뛎엤훃돇쫐췁뗘뗄뿕볤뷡릹ퟩ횯뫍룷샠폃뗘릦쓜ꎻ뛸힡햬쫐뎡뛠닉폃튻훖ퟔ랢뗄ꆰ뾴늻볻뗄쫖ꆱ엤훃힡햬뿕볤ꆣ듓쪱볤짏뾴ꎬ죧맻돇쫐췁뗘맦뮮횸뇪뇠훆뫏샭ꎬ퓲쯼쓜놣횤돇쫐폃뗘뗄뎤풶킧틦ꎬ늢볦맋뷼웚뗄힡햬랢햹튪쟳ꎻ뛸힡햬쫐뎡룼쓜쳥쿖뷼웚뛔힡햬풴뗄엤훃킧맻ꆣ틔짏듓뚨탔뗄뷇뛈럖컶쇋랿뗘닺붨짨맦뮮뿘훆뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄펰쿬컊쳢ꎬ틔쿂듓뚨솿뗄뷇뛈볬퇩랿뗘닺붨짨맦뮮뿘훆듺뇭탔횸뇪ꆪꆪ랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ1ꎩ틲맻맘쾵볬퇩평폚쫽뻝춳볆뗄풭틲ꎬ퓚럖컶훐톡퓱커몺쫐ퟷ캪퇹놾ꎬ뷸탐쫽뻝럖컶볆쯣ꎬ뿉뗃퇹놾돇쫐랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽ꎨFDCPJJMꎩ폫짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽ꎨXSMJꎩꆢ쿺쫛뛮ꎨXSEꎩ뫍욽뻹쿺쫛볛룱ꎨPJJGꎩ횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵뗄볬퇩뷡맻ꎬ죧뇭3ꎭ16쯹쪾ꆣ2ꎩ뷡맻뷢쫍81
룹뻝뇭훐F춳볆솿뫍룅싊횵뗄럖컶ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣꎨ1ꎩ듓돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뛔랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뛔랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽폐튻뚨뗄폕떼ퟷ폃ꎬ뇭쏷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뫍쿺쫛뛮뗄퓶볓ꎬ폕랢쇋춶짌뛔힡햬뾪랢뗄탨쟳ꎬ첧룟쇋헾뢮맜샭늿쏅뛔힡햬탨쟳뗄풤웚ꎬ듓뛸떼훂랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽뗄퓶볓ꆣ뇭3-16 랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ쏦믽폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뇭샠뇰쇣볙짨F춳볆솿룅싊횵돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪늻쫇FDCPJJM뗄풭틲XSE늻쫇FDCPJJM뗄풭틲뛔랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ쏦믽뗄펰쿬럖컶PJJG늻쫇FDCPJJM뗄풭틲랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ쏦믽뛔FDCPJJM늻쫇XSMJ뗄풭틲돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪9FDCPJJM늻쫇XSE뗄풭틲뗄ퟷ폃럖컶FDCPJJM늻쫇PJJG뗄풭틲럖컶뗄믹뒡쫽뻝살풴ꎺꆶ커몺랿뗘닺쓪본2004ꆷꎬ커몺돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꆣꎨ2ꎩ듓랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뗄볬퇩뷡맻살뾴ꎬ랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽늻쫇짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뇤뮯뗄Granger풭틲ꎬ뇭쏷헾뢮듓엺붨붨훾쏦믽뗄뷇뛈뛔힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛쏦믽뫍쿺쫛뛮뗄맦뮮뗷뿘ퟷ폃폐쿞ꎬ랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽뗄퓶볓늢늻믡퓶볓힡햬뗄쿺쫛쏦믽뫍쿺쫛뛮ꎬ랴횮틠좻ꆣꎨ3ꎩ뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뛔랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽뷏듳뿉쓜듦퓚튻훖떥쿲틲맻맘쾵ꆣꎨ4ꎩ헫뛔뇭훐랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽뛔힡햬욽뻹볛룱뗄펰쿬뛸퇔ꎬ랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽폐뷏듳뗄룅싊쫇짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄폕틲ꆣ랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽뗄퓶볓ꎬ쫇헾뢮쿠맘늿쏅뛔캴살짌욷힡햬볛룱짏헇뗄뫏샭랴펳ꎬ퓶볓릩룸틔쫊펦힡햬탨쟳뗄퓶뎤ꎬ듓뛸듯떽컈뚨힡햬볛룱뗄쒿뗄ꆣꎨ5ꎩ짌욷힡햬볛룱뛔랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽튲듦퓚튻뚨틲맻맘쾵ꎬ듓뛸랴펳돶짌욷힡햬볛룱쫇헾뢮맜샭늿쏅훆뚨랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽뿘훆횸뇪뗄틀뻝횮튻ꆣꎨ6ꎩ돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱폫랿뗘닺쿮쒿엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽횮볤듦퓚튻훖쿠뮥ퟷ폃ꆢ뮥캪틲맻뗄맘쾵ꆣ82
랿컝닰잨맦쒣뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬튻룶돇쫐랿컝뗄붨짨맦쒣폫랿컝퓙짺닺룷룶뮷뷚쿠맘ꎬ랴펳붨짨맦쒣뗄훷튪횸뇪폐랿컝붨짨뗄닰잨붨훾쏦믽ꆢ랿컝뾪릤쏦믽ꆢ랿컝쪩릤쏦믽뫍랿컝뾢릤쏦믽뗈ꆣ평폚훐맺쿖뷗뛎뒦폚돇쫐뮯뗄뿬쯙웚ꆢ듳맦쒣뗄붨짨랢햹웚ꎬ뻉돇룄퓬훐닰잨뗄랿컝듳늿럖캪힡햬ꎬ틲듋ꎬ돇쫐랿컝뗄닰잨쏦믽뻍돉쇋훐맺룷돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡퇐뺿헟웕뇩맘힢뗄훘튪횸뇪ꆣ닰잨뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡볤뗄맘쾵뻍돉쇋짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯맦싉퇐뺿뗄훘튪쓚죝횮튻ꎬ폈웤쫇뛔폚뿬쯙랢햹뗄맺볒믲뗘쟸뛸퇔ꎬ룼쿖훘튪ꆣ닰잨뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄펰쿬뿉틔뇭쿖퓚솽룶랽쏦ꎺ튻랽쏦닰잨쪹풭폐뗄힡뮧쪧좥쇋풭폐삵틔짺믮뗄힡햬ꎬ믱뗃쇋쿠펦뗄낲훃늹훺ꎬ퓶볓쇋돇쫐힡햬뗄탨쟳죋쫽ꆢ릺싲폻췻뫍릺싲솦ꎬ떼훂짌욷힡햬뗄탨쟳쳡룟ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦닰잨뫳뗄췁뗘샻폃잿뛈췹췹믡폐쯹쳡룟ꎬ럱퓲쓑틔컼틽뾪랢짌ꎬ듓헢룶틢틥짏뛸퇔ꎬ튲믡퓶볓랿컝뗄릩룸ퟜ솿ꎬ횻쫇풭놻닰잨힡햬뾪랢캪탂힡햬탨튪튻뚨뗄쪱볤ꎬ닰잨킧펦늻뿉쓜솢벴뮯캪힡햬릩룸뗄퓶볓ꆣ틲듋ꎬ닰잨폫힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿늻뷶듦퓚ퟅퟔ뇤솿폫틲[64]뇤솿뗄맘쾵ꎬ뛸쟒쯼뛔탨쟳뗄킧펦폫뛔릩룸뗄킧펦횮볤듦퓚ꆰ쪱볤닮ꆱꆣ떱헾뢮쿠맘늿쏅랢돶닰잨춨횪쫩쪱ꎬ닰잨랶캧쓚뗄뻓쏱뻍튪뾪쪼쇭쏙탂뻓ꎬ탨쟳솿펦닰잨솿뗄퓶뎤쯦횮퓶볓ꆣ닰잨삭뚯힡햬쫐뎡뗄솽훖탨쟳ꎺ웤튻쫇낲훃탍뗄짺듦탨쟳ꎬ짺듦탨쟳쫇뇘탫뗃떽싺ퟣ뗄룕탔탨쟳ꆣ웤뛾쫇랢햹탍뗄룄짆탨쟳ꎬ룄짆탨쟳쫇쯦ퟅ맺쏱쫕죫뗄훰늽퓶뎤ꎬ뻓쏱볒춥쫕죫훰붥뢻풣뛸늻뛏퓶뎤뗄떯탔탨쟳ꆣ뛸평폚릩룸뗄훍뫳ꎬ릩룸솿늻믡십짏쯦횮퓶볓ꎬ듋쪱떼훂랿볛짏짽ꎬ뾪랢짌샻죳퓶볓ꆣ퓚샻틦풭퓲쟽뚯쿂ꎬ힡햬뾪랢짌틀좻볓듳춶룄퓬힡햬뗄솦뛈ꎬ퓶볓릩룸ꎬ싺ퟣ솬탸닰잨틽랢뗄늻뛏퓶뎤뗄힡랿탨쟳ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡쿲짏늨뚯뷗뛎ꎬ횱떽늨럥ꆣ떱힡햬쫐뎡벰웤쿠맘닺튵풴쿻뫄삩듳ꎬ늻뛏퓶뎤뗄릩룸솿뗈폚힡햬탨쟳솿쪱ꎬ쫐뎡돶쿖놥뫍ꆣ좻뛸힡햬뾪랢웳튵퓚샻틦ퟮ듳뮯쟽쪹쿂ꎬ쫐뎡맦쒣풽듳풽퓶볓춶죫ꎬ떱헾뢮ퟷ돶뻶닟복뮺닰잨쯙뛈믲춣횹닰잨쪱ꎬ짺듦탍뗄룕탔탨쟳솢벴복쿂살ꎬ슥쫐쪣쿂살뗄뛠쫇룄짆탨쟳ꎬ탨쟳솿죱복ꆣ벴쪹뾪랢짌벰쪱복짙춶죫ꎬ떫평폚힡햬붨짨탨튪쪱볤ꎬ릩룸쪱볤훍뫳ꎬ떼훂힡햬릩룸퓶뎤맟탔늻복ꎬ벸쓪잰춶죫뗄쿮쒿죔퓚늻뛏췆쿲쫐뎡ꎬ쫐뎡짏뗄릩룸ퟜ솿늻믡틲탨쟳퓶뎤복뮺ꆢ캮쯵뛸솢벴춣횹릩룸퓶뎤뗄뇈싊ꆣ늻떫늻믡솢뿌복짙ꎬ랴뛸믡퓚튻뚨쪱웚쓚퓶볓ꎬ폚쫇쯦뫳뻍믡돶쿖튻룶쪱뛎뗄릩맽폚쟳ꎬ랿볛쿂뗸ꎬ쿺쫛솿쿂붵ꎬ쫐뎡쿂뮬뷸죫쮥췋뷗뛎ꎬ횱떽늨마ꆣ듓짏쫶럖컶뿉횪ꎬ닰잨솿쫇ퟔ뇤솿ꎬ횱뷓펰쿬힡햬쫐뎡헢룶틲뇤솿ꆣ닰잨솿83
퓶볓ꎬ탨쟳쏦믽삩헅ꎬ랿볛짏짽ꎬ쿺쫛뛮퓶볓ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡짽컂ꎻ닰잨솿복짙ꎬ탨쟳솿캮쯵ꎬ평폚릩룸뗄맟탔ퟷ폃ꎬ퓚튻뚨쪱웚쓚돶쿖릩맽폚쟳ꎬ랿볛쿂뗸ꎬ쿺쫛뛮듳럹쿂붵ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡쿲쿂늨뚯ꆣ평폚닰잨욬뗄뻓쏱볒춥쫕죫뛠쫽욫뗍ꎬ틲뛸ꎬ틲닰잨뇤솿뛸틽웰뗄슥쫐뇤뮯ꎬ튻냣쫇쫐뎡뷡릹탔뗄뇤뮯ꆣ듓닰잨킧펦뗄쪱볤탔럖컶ꎬ닰잨솿퓶복뇤뮯솢벴펰쿬탨쟳솿퓶복뇤뮯ꎬ떫뛔폚릩룸솿뇤뮯뗄펰쿬뻟폐훍뫳ퟷ폃ꎬ벴릩룸솿뗄퓶복뇤뮯훍뫳폚닰잨솿뗄퓶복뇤뮯ꆣ틔짏듓뚨탔뗄뷇뛈럖컶쇋돇쫐랿컝닰잨뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬컊쳢ꎬ틔쿂듓뚨솿뗄뷇뛈볬퇩돇쫐랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ1ꎩ틲맻맘쾵볬퇩퓚럖컶훐톡퓱커몺쫐ퟷ캪퇹놾ꎬ뷸탐쫽뻝럖컶ꎬ뿉뗃퇹놾돇쫐랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽ꎨFWCQMJꎩ폫짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽ꎨXSMJꎩꆢ쿺쫛뛮ꎨXSEꎩ뫍욽뻹쿺쫛볛룱ꎨPJJGꎩ횮볤튻쓪훍뫳웚뗄늨뚯틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뷡맻ꎬ죧쿂뇭쯹쪾ꆣ뇭3-17 퇹놾돇쫐랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뇭샠뇰쇣볙짨F춳볆솿룅싊횵돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸뇪늻쫇FWCQMJ뗄풭틲XSE늻쫇FWCQMJ뗄풭틲뛔돇쫐랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽뗄펰쿬럖컶PJJG늻쫇FWCQMJ뗄풭틲돇쫐랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽FWCQMJ늻쫇XSMJ뗄풭틲뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸.늻쫇XSE뗄풭틲2뇪뗄ퟷ폃럖컶FWCQMJ늻쫇PJJG뗄풭틲럖컶뗄믹뒡쫽뻝살풴ꎺퟷ헟뗄쪵뗘뗷닩뫍ꆶ커몺랿뗘닺쓪본2004ꆷꎬ커몺돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꆣ2ꎩ뷡맻뷢쫍룹뻝뇭훐F춳볆솿뫍룅싊횵뗄럖컶ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶돇쫐랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣꎨ1ꎩ듓퇹놾돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뫍볛룱뛔돇쫐랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ볛룱쫇돇쫐랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽뇤뮯뗄폕틲ꎬ뇭쏷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ쿺쫛뛮뫍볛룱뗄퓶볓ꎬ뿉틔폕랢뾪랢짌닎폫돇쫐뻉돇룄퓬ꎬ룄짆돇쫐뗄쏦쎲ꆣꎨ2ꎩ듓돇쫐랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뫍볛룱뗄볬퇩뷡맻살뾴ꎬ돇쫐랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽쫇짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뫍볛룱뇤뮯뗄Granger풭틲ꎬ뇭쏷돇쫐랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽뗄퓶볓믡쳡룟돇쫐뻓쏱뛔힡햬뗄탨쟳ꎬ퓶볓돇쫐짌욷힡햬뗄쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ쿺쫛뛮ꎬ쳡룟힡햬뗄볛룱쮮욽ꆣ84
ꎨ3ꎩ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뫍짌욷힡햬볛룱폫돇쫐랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽횮볤듦퓚튻훖쿠뮥ퟷ폃ꆢ뮥캪틲맻뗄맘쾵ꆣ 냬릫폃랿쫐뎡뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬냬릫폃랿쫐뎡쫇랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄튻룶훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ쯦ퟅ돇쫐짌튵ꆢ뷰죚튵ꆢ놣쿕튵ꆢ럾컱튵ꆢ듺샭튵ꆢ훐뷩럾컱튵뗄랢햹ꎬ냬릫슥쿮쒿죔좻뻟폐쪮럖맣삫뗄쫐뎡잰뺰ꆣ떫쫇쫐뎡뗄탨쟳죝솿퓚튻뚨뷗뛎쓚폐튻뚨쿞뛈ꎬ쎤쒿랢햹냬릫폃랿쫐뎡믡듸살뫜듳뗄뢺쏦킧펦ꆣ냬릫폃랿ힷ쟳솼뫃뗄냬릫쟸캻ꎬ웤붨짨뗘뗣튻냣톡퓱퓚붻춨뇣뷝ꆢ뮷뺳쫊틋ꆢ릫릲럾컱짨쪩쳵볾뷏뫃ꆢ폐샻폚낲좫놣컀뫍풶샫컛좾풴뗄뗘뗣ꎬ뛸쟒펦뇜쏢붨짨퓚릤튵쟸ꆢ짌튵쟸ꆢ뻓쏱쟸ꆣ뛸죧맻냬릫폃랿뗧쳝짙ꆢ짏쿂냠맽폚펵벷ꎬ춣뎵캻늻ퟣꎬ훜뇟뮷뺳퓓ꎬ붻춨퓫틴맽듳ꎬ쳬뮨냥맽뗍ꎬ뿕웸쇷뚯늻뎩ꎬ훜뇟닍틻ꆢ폩샖짨쪩짙ꆢ짌컱믡첸컞뒦뿉좥ꎬ컯튵럾컱룺늻짏ꎬ늻쓜놣횤냬릫탨튪뗄쪱뫲뗃떽쿠펦뗄럾컱뗈뚼믡펰쿬냬릫폃랿볛룱쮮욽ꆣ헢킩틲쯘훐폐탭뛠늻춬폚죋쏇뛔힡햬뗄튪쟳ꆣ쯤좻퓚뻟쳥펰쿬룷ퟔ쫐뎡뗄틲쯘짏폐닮틬ꎬ떫듓ퟜ솿짏뾴ꎬ냬릫폃랿쫐뎡폫힡햬쫐뎡쫇럱듦퓚뮥뚯맘쾵쓘ꎿ쯼쏇횮볤폐럱솪쾵ꎬ솪쾵뗄얦듸폖쫇쪲쎴틲쯘쓘ꎿ헢뻍탨튪뛔솽쫐뎡틲맻맘쾵뷸탐쿠펦뗄볬퇩ꆣ1ꎩ틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뫢솿냬릫폃랿쫐뎡랢햹뗄훘튪횸뇪쫇냬릫폃랿쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ냬릫폃랿쿺쫛뛮ꆣ룹뻝쫕벯떽쿠펦쇏쫽뻝ꎬ볬퇩냬릫폃랿쫐뎡뫍훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ뺭맽볆쯣ꎬ뿉뗃냬릫폃랿쿺쫛볛룱ꎨBGJGꎩꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽ꎨBGXSMJꎩ폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄튻쓪웚훍뫳뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뷡맻ꎬ죧쿂뇭쯹쪾ꆣ85
뇭3-18 냬릫폃랿쫐뎡폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뇭샠뇰쇣볙짨F춳볆솿룅싊횵돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸늻쫇BGJG뗄풭틲늻쫇BGJG뗄풭틲2뇪뛔냬릫폃랿쿺쫛볛룱뗄펰쿬럖컶ZGPJJG늻쫇BGJG뗄풭틲냬릫폃랿쿺쫛볛룱뛔BGJG늻쫇ZGXSMJ뗄풭틲돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸늻쫇ZGXSE뗄풭틲0.뇪뗄ퟷ폃럖컶BGJG늻쫇ZGPJJG뗄풭틲돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸ZGXSMJ늻쫇BGXSMJ뗄풭틲뇪뛔냬릫폃랿쿺쫛쏦늻쫇BGXSMJ뗄풭틲19.믽뗄펰쿬럖컶ZGPJJG늻쫇BGXSMJ뗄풭틲냬릫폃랿쿺쫛쏦믽뛔BGXSMJ늻쫇ZGXSMJ뗄풭틲돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸.늻쫇ZGXSE뗄풭틲1뇪뗄ퟷ폃럖컶BGXSMJ늻쫇ZGPJJG뗄풭틲럖컶뗄믹뒡쫽뻝살풴ꎺꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꎻꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꆣ2ꎩ뷡맻뷢쫍룹뻝뇭훐F춳볆솿뫍룅싊횵뗄럖컶ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶냬릫폃랿쫐뎡폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣꎨ1ꎩ듓돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ힡햬볛룱뛔냬릫폃랿욽뻹볛룱뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽뛔냬릫폃랿욽뻹볛룱펰쿬뷏듳ꎬ평듋뿉볻ꎬ튻룶맺볒ꆢ뗘쟸믲돇쫐뻓쏱뗄릺랿쓜솦폫쯼뗄냬릫럾컱뗄랢햹잰뺰폐맘ꆣꎨ2ꎩ듓냬릫폃랿욽뻹볛룱뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뫍냬릫폃랿볛룱뗄볬퇩뷡맻살뾴ꎬ냬릫폃랿욽뻹볛룱뛔훐맺짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽쓜듸살튻뚨펰쿬ꆣꎨ3ꎩ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡폫냬릫폃랿볛룱뷏듳뿉쓜듦퓚튻훖쿠뮥펰쿬뗄틲맻맘쾵ꎬ쟒힡햬쫐뎡뛔냬릫폃랿볛룱뗄펰쿬듳폚냬릫폃랿뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄ퟷ폃ꆣꎨ4ꎩ쯤좻냬릫폃랿뗄볛룱폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯폐뮥뚯맘쾵ꎬ떫냬릫폃랿쿺쫛쏦믽늻쫇짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄폕틲ꎬ쯼훷튪쫜킴ퟖ슥쫐뎡ퟔ짭뗄맦싉쯹펰쿬ꎬ솽샠쫐뎡춨맽볛룱닺짺쿠뮥ퟷ폃ꆣꎨ5ꎩ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ힡햬볛룱뛔냬릫폃랿뗄쿺쫛솿폐뷏듳펰쿬ꆣ86
짌튵펪튵폃랿쫐뎡뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬짌튵펪튵폃랿쫇횸폃폚룷훖쇣쫛ꆢ닍틻ꆢ폩샖ꆢ붡짭럾컱ꆢ택쿐짨쪩뗈뺭펪폃춾뗄랿뗘닺탎쪽ꎬ듓뺭펪쒣쪽ꆢ릦쓜뫍폃춾짏쟸뇰폚웕춨힡햬ꆢ릫풢ꆢ킴ퟖ슥ꆢ뇰쫻뗈랿뗘닺탎쪽ꆣ짌튵펪튵랿뗘닺탎쪽뛠퇹ꎬ맦쒣듳킡늻튻ꎬ쒿잰벯쇣쫛ꆢ닍틻ꆢ폩샖ꆢ붡짭럾컱ꆢ택쿐폚튻짭뗄듳ꆢ훐탍릺컯훐탄뫍Shopping Mall퓚맺쓚뗄랢햹쫆춷벫캪잿뺢ꆣ폫웤쯻탎쪽뗄랿뗘닺탎쪽쿠뇈ꎬ짌튵랿뗘닺뻟폐틔쿂쳘뗣ꎺ뗚튻ꎬ뿍뮧탨쟳쳘쫢ꆣ짌튵랿뗘닺뗄뿍뮧냼삨솽벶ꎺ돵벶뿍뮧ꆪꆪ짌튵퓋펪짌ꎬ훕벶뿍뮧튻튻쿻럑헟ꆣ튻랽쏦ꎬ짌튵퓋펪짌늻춬뗄뺭펪쓚죝ꆢ쳘즫뻶뚨웤탨쟳뗄룶탔뮯ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ짌튵랿뗘닺쯹헫뛔뗄쿻럑헟쫽솿엓듳ꎬ뿍뮧좺뷡릹뢴퓓ꆣ뗚뛾ꆢ뺭펪펮샻늻좷뚨탔ꆣ짌튵펪튵랿뗘닺뗄맦쒣폐듳폐킡ꎬ뺭펪럧쿕폐룟폐뗍ꆣ뗚죽ꎬ뺭펪맜샭뗄뢴퓓탔ꆣ볈폐듳맦쒣뗄릺컯훐탄벰Shopping Mall뗄맜샭쒣쪽ꎬ폖폐킡뗪워뗄쇩믮뺭펪쒣쪽ꎬ튵첬훖샠럡뢻ꎬ뛔폚늻춬튵첬샠탍폐쿠틬뗄뺭펪맜샭쒣쪽ꆣ짌튵펪튵폃랿폫힡햬랿쏜쟐쿠맘ꎬ쇙뷼짌튵쟸뗄힡햬볛횵횱뷓쫜떽짌튵쟸뗄펰쿬ꎬ뻠짌튵쟸훐탄풽뷼뗄힡햬볛룱풽룟ꎬ랴횮틠좻ꆣ떫힡햬볛횵늻뷶쫜짌튵쟸캻뗄펰쿬ꎬ뻓힡뮷뺳ꆢ뗀슷춨듯쳵볾뛔힡햬볛횵뗄뻶뚨튲폐훁맘훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ쳥쿖돶힡햬쫐뎡폫짌튵펪튵쫐뎡볈폐솪쾵폖쟸뇰뗄쳘탔ꆣ쯼쏇횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵뿉춨맽짌튵펪튵폃랿쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ짌튵펪튵폃랿쿺쫛뛮폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡훷튪뇤솿횮볤뗄Granger볬퇩뷸탐ꆣ1ꎩ틲맻맘쾵볬퇩룹뻝쫕벯떽쫽뻝ꎬ볬퇩짌튵펪튵폃랿쫐뎡뫍훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ뺭맽볆쯣ꎬ뿉뗃짌튵펪튵폃랿쿺쫛볛룱ꎨSYJGꎩꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽ꎨSYXSMJꎩ폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄튻쓪웚훍뫳뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뷡맻ꎬ죧뇭3-19쯹쪾ꆣ2ꎩ뷡맻뷢쫍룹뻝뇭훐뗄볆쯣뷡맻ꎬ뷡뫏F춳볆솿뫍룅싊횵뗄럖컶ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶짌튵펪튵폃랿쫐뎡폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣꎨ1ꎩ듓돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뛔펪튵폃랿쿺쫛볛룱뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ힡햬볛룱뛔짌튵펪튵폃랿쿺쫛볛룱폐튻뚨뗄폕떼ퟷ폃ꎬ뇭쏷힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹쓜듸뚯돇쫐짌튵펪튵짨쪩뗄췪짆ꎬ듙뷸짌튵펪튵폃랿쫐뎡뗄랢폽ꎬ뛔짌튵펪튵폃랿볛룱폐튻뚨뗄삭뚯ퟷ폃ꆣꎨ2ꎩ짌튵펪튵폃랿볛룱뗄쳡룟튲뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢폽웰떽튻뚨뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃ꎬ듙뷸짌욷힡햬뗄쿺쫛뫍힡햬볛룱뗄쳡룟ꆣ87
뇭3-19 짌튵펪튵폃랿쫐뎡폫훐맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뇭샠뇰쇣볙짨F춳볆솿룅싊횵돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸ZGXSMJ늻쫇SYJG뗄풭틲뇪뛔펪튵폃랿쿺쫛볛.늻쫇SYJG뗄풭틲3룱뗄펰쿬럖컶ZGPJJG늻쫇SYJG뗄풭틲펪튵폃랿쿺쫛볛룱뛔SYJG늻쫇ZGXSMJ뗄풭틲돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸296SYJG늻쫇ZGXSE뗄풭틲.뇪뗄ퟷ폃럖컶늻쫇ZGPJJG뗄풭틲돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸ZGXSMJ늻쫇SYXSMJ뗄풭틲뇪뛔펪튵폃랿쿺쫛쏦3ZGXSE늻쫇SYXSMJ뗄풭틲믽뗄펰쿬럖컶ZGPJJG늻쫇SYXSMJ뗄풭틲펪튵폃랿쿺쫛쏦믽뛔SYXSMJ늻쫇ZGXSMJ뗄풭틲돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횸0SYXSMJ늻쫇ZGXSE뗄풭틲뇪뗄ퟷ폃럖컶SYXSMJ늻쫇ZGPJJG뗄풭틲럖컶뗄믹뒡쫽뻝살풴ꎺꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꎻꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺쓪본2004ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2004쓪냦ꆣꎨ3ꎩ듓짏뇭뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽뫍볛룱폫짌튵펪튵폃랿볛룱뷏듳뿉쓜듦퓚튻훖뮥뚯틲맻맘쾵ꆣꎨ4ꎩ듓돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뛔펪튵폃랿쿺쫛쏦믽뗄펰쿬살뾴ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ힡햬볛룱듦퓚ퟅ늻쫇짌튵펪튵폃랿쿺쫛쏦믽늨뚯풭틲뗄뿉쓜ꎬ뇭쏷힡햬쫐뎡뫍짌튵펪튵폃랿쫐뎡쫇튻룶쿠뮥뛀솢뗄쫐뎡ꎬ퓚럖컶쪱펦럖뇰퇐뺿ꎬ솽쫐뎡볤춨맽짌튵펪튵폃랿뗄볛룱랢짺솪쾵ꆣꎨ5ꎩ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ짌튵펪튵폃랿뗄쿺쫛솿뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛뛮ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽ꆢ힡햬볛룱폐뷏듳펰쿬ꆣ쯼뇭쏷짌튵펪튵폃랿쿺쫛솿뗄삩듳뛔놾뗘쟸힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛뫍볛룱쮮욽뗄쳡룟뻟폐훘튪냯훺ꆣ돽쇋틔짏힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿틔췢ꎬ힡햬쿻럑헟뫍춶헟뛔힡햬쫐뎡볛룱뗄캴살풤웚튲쫇뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯닺짺췆늨훺삽뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ쿻럑헟뛔캴살뺭볃탎쫆뗄풤웚ꎬ믡횱뷓펰쿬뛔힡햬뗄탨쟳ꆣ죧맻뛔캴살뗄뺭볃탎쫆풤웚쫇쿂뮬뗄ꎬ뻓쏱벴쪹폐릺싲쓜솦ꎬ튲늻믡뮨뗴ퟔ벺듳늿럖짵훁좫늿믽탮좥싲랿ퟓꆣ죧맻뛔캴살뗄뺭볃탎쫆풤웚쫇샖맛뗄ꎬ퓲뻓쏱믡퓶잿룄짆뻓힡쳵볾뗄풸췻ꎬ퓶볓힡랿탨쟳ꆣ88
4 돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뚯솦톧럖컶놾늿럖퓚럖컶쿖탐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쒣탍뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ룹뻝돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뚯솦톧샭싛럖컶힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쾵춳ꎬ헒돶짌욷힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐늨뚯믺샭ꎬ릹퓬힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐뗄뚯첬쒣탍ꆣ 쿖탐힡햬쫐뎡럖컶쒣탍맘폚힡햬쫐뎡뗄쒣탍폐뫜뛠ꎬ볈폐뺺헹탔쫐뎡쒣탍ꎬ튲폐럇뺺헹뫍럇췪좫뺺헹쫐뎡쒣탍ꆣ20쫀볍뻅쪮쓪듺틔살뛔튵뷧펰쿬뷏듳뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶쒣탍폐솽샠ꎺ튻샠듓쫐뎡릩룸뫍탨쟳뷇뛈ꎬ럖컶웚췻킧폃뫍샻죳ퟮ듳뮯뗄쳵볾쿂쫐뎡뗄늨뚯퓋탐ꎬ웤듺뇭탔뗄쒣탍쫇훫췸쒣탍뫍뻖늿뻹뫢쒣탍ꎻ쇭튻샠듓힡햬듎벶쫐뎡횮볤뗄맘쾵죫쫖ꎬ럖컶쯼쏇횮볤뗄뮥뚯맘쾵ꎬ웤듺뇭탔뗄쒣탍쫇힡햬듦솿ꎭ퓶솿쒣탍ꎨstock-flow modelꎩꆣ쫐뎡뻖늿뻹뫢쒣탍쫇퓚뫜튻냣뗄쟩뿶쿂볙뚨릺랿헟뗄킧폃몯쫽뫍힡햬뾪랢짌[65]뗄쒿뇪샻죳몯쫽ꎬ쟳뷢쯻쏇뗄ퟮ폅뮯컊쳢럖뇰뗃떽랿뗘닺뗄탨쟳뫍릩룸쟺쿟ꆣ떱릺랿헟뫍랿뗘닺짌뚼늻쓜믱뗃틸탐듻뿮ꎬ췪좫틔ퟔ폐뷰릺싲뫍쳡릩힡랿쪱ꎬ뿉틔럖컶돶힡햬쫐뎡볛횵캪ꎺ(1+r)⋅cY* P=2l P SS 쪽훐P*캪ퟔ폐뷰닎 폫힡햬쫐뎡쪱쯹탎돉뗄쫐s P SS 뎡볛횵ꎬr캪ퟔ폐뷰춶 쫕틦싊ꎬc캪붨랿뗄떥 *l캻돉놾ꎬY캪뿉횧엤쫕죫ꎬ P DD 떱죋쏇풤웚랿볛뿉쓜짏s DD 헇ꎬ늢뿉틔춨맽믱좡틸탐 H듻뿮살삩듳뛔랿뗘닺뗄탨춼4ꎭ1 힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뻖늿뻹뫢춼쟳뫍릩룸쪱ꎬ쫐뎡늨뚯뫳뗄볛룱캪ꎺ89
[1+(1+r)Pr]⋅cYP=2[1−θ+(1+r)θ⋅Ps]쪽훐P캪쫐뎡샭탔믲럇샭탔늨뚯뗄뻖늿뻹뫢볛룱ꎬPr캪뾪랢짌맩뮹듻뿮뗄룅싊ꎬPs캪릺랿헟맩뮹듻뿮놾쾢뗄룅싊ꎬꛈ캪듻뿮뛮햼힡랿볛횵뗄냙럖뇈ꎬ웤쯼럻뫅몬틥춬잰ꆣ뇈뷏헢솽훖쟩뿶쿂뗄볛룱뇤뮯ꎬ뻍뿉틔듓샭싛짏뗃떽힡랿쫐뎡뗄“믹놾볛룱”ꆢ듻뿮돥믷쳵볾쿂힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄“뻹뫢볛룱”ꎬ늢듓훐뾴돶뻓쏱쫕죫쮮욽ꎨYꎩꆢ짧믡욽뻹놾쫕틦싊ꎨrꎩꆢ틸탐뗖톺듻뿮뇈샽ꎨꛈꎩ뛔돇쫐힡햬볛룱뗄펰쿬믺훆ꆣ헢튻쒣탍볙쮵쓜퓚샭싛짏럖컶듻뿮뛔랿뗘닺쫐뎡쯹닺짺뗄늨뚯럹뛈ꎬ떫쯼쎻폐뾼싇룄룯폫맬맽돌훐뗄훆뛈틲쯘뛔돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡볛룱뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛔닺짺랿뗘닺늨뚯뗄폕틲횻듓랿듻ꆢ쫕죫뫍놾쫕틦싊뗄뷇뛈뷸탐럖컶ꎬ뫶쫓쇋뻓쏱뗄힡랿풤웚볛룱ꆢ뾪랢쪱훍뗈틲쯘뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬ꎬ뮹탨튪붫웤췪짆ꎬ늢폃폚돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ힡햬듦솿ꎭ퓶솿쒣탍죏캪힡햬쫐뎡훷튪평듦솿쫐뎡뫍퓶솿쫐뎡쯹릹돉ꎬ듋솽헟맘쾵퓚샭싛짏닉폃힡햬듦솿ꎭ퓶솿쒣탍뷸탐럖컶ꎬ힡햬듦솿ꎭ퓶솿쒣탍쫇첽쳖힡햬듦솿쫐뎡폫탂붨힡햬쫐뎡볛룱폫쫽솿맘쾵뗄뺭뗤쒣탍ꎬ쯼붫뛌웚힡햬릩룸솿쫓캪만뚨ꎬ평힡햬탨쟳쮮욽뻶뚨쎿떥캻힡햬럾컱뗄쫐뎡ퟢ뷰ꎬ퓙폃쫊떱뗄놾뮯싊붫힡햬ퟢ뷰뮹풭캪힡햬볛룱ꎬ좻뫳틀뻝힡햬볛룱뫍힡햬뗄뾪랢돉놾릲춬뻶뚨힡햬뗄뾪랢솿ꆣ헢튻쒣탍뷏뫃뗘랴펳쇋힡햬듦솿쫐뎡볛솿ꆢ퓶솿쫐뎡볛솿횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ퓶솿쫐뎡힡햬ퟢ뷰R듦솿쫐뎡PꎽfꎨRꎬrꎩSꎽfꎨRꎬ웤쯼ꎩ힡햬볛룱P힡햬듦솿QꎽfꎨpꎬcꎩSꎽfꎨQꎬSꎬ헛뻉싊ꎩttꎭ1힡햬뾪랢솿춼4ꎭ2 힡햬듦솿――퓶솿쒣탍춼90
좻뛸ꎬ뒫춳뗄힡햬듦솿ꎭ퓶솿쒣탍퓚럖컶훐튲듦퓚튻킩컊쳢ꎺ튻쫇쯼펦폃뗄볙짨잰쳡쫇힡햬쫐뎡붫듯떽뻹뫢ힴ첬ꎬ뛸퓚힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹맽돌훐ꎬ쯦ퟅ돇쫐죋뿚뗄퓶볓ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄맦쒣늻뛏퓶듳ꎬ힡햬뗄볛솿퓚ퟜ쳥짏뚼돊쿖튻훖짏짽뗄첬쫆ꎬ헢폫룃쒣탍뗄볙짨늻튻훂ꎻ뛾쫇힡햬듦솿ꎭ퓶솿쒣탍쯹쏨쫶뗄힡햬듦솿폫퓶솿쫐뎡횮볤뗄볛솿맘쾵쫇튻훖뺲첬뗄볛솿맘쾵ꎬ뛸힡햬뗄뾪랢훜웚좴뷏뎤ꎬ죧맻냑쪱볤튪쯘쓉죫룃샭싛쒣탍ꎬ퓲떱웚뗄힡햬릩룸솿붫쫇틀삵폚잰웚뗄쫐뎡볛룱ꎬ헢퓚뒫춳뗄힡햬듦솿ꎭ퓶솿쒣탍훐캴폨틔뾼싇ꎻ죽쫇힡햬뗄쿻럑뫍춶뻟폐벴웚뗄쳘헷ꎬ평듋떼훂힡햬탨쟳쫇틀뻝힡햬뗄떱웚ퟢ뷰뫍볛룱쯹뻶뚨ꎬ떱힡햬릩룸뗄훍뫳탔듦퓚쪱ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄릩탨폫볛룱뗄맘쾵룼럻뫏훫췸쒣탍뗄볙짨ꎬ듋쪱떱웚뗄힡햬볛룱붫폫힡햬뾪랢솿돊랴쿲늨뚯ힴ첬ꎬ뛸늻믡돊쿖힡햬듦솿ꎭ퓶솿쒣탍쯹췆싛뗄볛솿춬쿲늨뚯맘쾵ꎻ쯄쫇힡햬듦솿ꎭ퓶솿쒣탍릹퓬쇋쫐뎡컈뚨뗄쳵볾쿂릩탨쮫랽샭탔퓋ퟷ뗄맽돌뫍뷡맻ꎬ웤캴살뗄쫐뎡ힴ뿶튻뚨ꆣ뛸쪵볊뗄힡햬쫐뎡뒦퓚늻뛏늨뚯뗄퓋뚯횮훐ꎬ퓚늻췪좫뺺헹쫐뎡ꆢ늻췪좫샭탔ꆢ늻췪좫탅쾢쳵볾쿂ꎬ힡햬뗄쿻럑헟뫍춶헟뛔캴살뗄풤웚뚼믡쯦ퟅ쫐뎡뺰웸뗄뇤뮯뛸뇤뮯ꎬ듓뛸떼훂돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뢴퓓탔ꆣ평듋튲닺짺쇋샠쯆틉컊ꎺ컒맺뗄돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄볛솿늨뚯맘쾵쫇럻뫏훫췸쒣탍뗄볙짨럖컶ꎬ뮹쫇럻뫏힡햬듦솿ꎭ퓶솿쒣탍뗄럖컶뷡싛ꎬ컒맺힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯맦싉죧뫎ꎿ듦솿쫐뎡뫍퓶솿쫐뎡뻟폐뫎훖뮥뚯맘쾵ꎿ놾컄쓢헫뛔컒맺돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹뇤뮯ꎬ퓚샭싛뫍쪵횤럖컶믹뒡짏ꎬ릹붨럻뫏맺쟩뗄돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄샭싛ꎬ헒돶듦솿폫퓶솿쫐뎡횮볤뗄뮥뚯맘쾵쒣탍ꎬ늢첽쳖캪쪵쿖컒맺돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄컈뚨ꆢ붡뾵랢햹뛸닉좡뗄뗷뿘뛔닟ꆣ퓚퓶솿쫐뎡폫듦솿쫐뎡뗄뮥뚯맘쾵퇐뺿맽돌훐쓢듓힡햬쫐뎡뗄놾쫕틦싊죫쫖ꎬ럖컶힡햬쫐뎡놾쫕틦싊뗄쪵훊ꎬ늢퓚힡햬돖폐웚킡폚뗖톺듻뿮웚틔벰힡햬돖폐웚뫍췁뗘엺ퟢ쓪쿞쿠춬뗄솽훖쟩뿶쿂ꎬ췆떼돶폫컒맺췁뗘폐쿞웚쪹폃훆뛈쿠쫊펦뗄힡햬놾쫕틦싊뗄볆쯣랽램ꎬ쳡돶쇋볬퇩힡햬쫐뎡놾쫕틦싊늨뚯뫏샭탔뗄믹놾쒣탍ꎬ뛸쟒솦쟳룹뻝룃쒣탍쮼쿫ꎬ헫뛔컒맺힡햬쫐뎡뗄쳘헷ꎬ붨솢튻룶쪵횤럖컶쒣탍뛔웤쮼쿫뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ 믹폚횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶퓚듦솿힡햬훐ꎬ폐튻늿럖튵훷캪쇋뷰뗄놣횵퓶횵ꎬ췹췹퓚늻ퟔ힡뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ붫웤쯹폐뗄힡햬돶ퟢꎬ믱좡튻뚨뗄ퟢ쇞쫕죫ꎬ뛸헢훖탐캪폐샻폚힡햬풴뗄돤럖91
샻폃ꎬ싺ퟣ튻늿럖죋뗄힡랿탨쟳ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ뛔짌욷힡햬붻틗쫐뎡폖믡닺짺뻞듳뗄펰쿬ꆣ룹뻝힡햬뺭볃뗄믹놾풭샭ꎬ퓚쯹폐좨폫쪹폃좨뿉틔럖샫뗄램싉잰쳡쿂ꎬ짌욷힡햬뗄뻞뛮탔폫룶죋쫕죋뗄폐쿞탔ꆢ짌욷힡햬뗄늻뿉틆뚯탔폫죋쏇믮뚯뗄틆뚯탔솽듳쎬뛜뗄듦퓚ꎬ떼훂쇋힡햬ퟢ쇞돉캪힡햬쫐뎡뇘늻뿉짙뗄쿻럑탎쪽횮튻ꎬ돉캪릹붨힡햬쫐뎡뿲볜뗄쇭튻훘튪랽쏦ꆣ폫웤쯻뗄짺믮뇘탨욷(죧틂ꆢ쪳)쫐뎡쿠뇈ꎬ힡햬ퟢ쇞쿻럑틲웤폅쫆ꎬ쓑틔캪힡햬릺싲쯹쳦듺ꎬ틲듋힡햬쫐뎡룹놾늻뿉쓜뻜뻸헢훖믹놾뗄힡햬쿻럑탎쪽ꆣ죧맻죋캪뗄웆뮵헢훖뺭볃랢햹쯹뇘탫뗄ퟔ좻탎쪽ꎬ뻍뿉쓜랢짺룷훖쓑틔맀볆떽뗄캣믺(뿉쓜믡폐튻뚨뗄잱럼웚)ꎬ듓뛸쪹짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뫍돇[66]쫐뺭볃랢햹뗄맦싉쫜떽웆뮵ꆣ틲듋ꎬ럖컶힡햬쫐뎡뇘탫뾼싇힡햬ퟢ쇞쫐뎡뛔쯼뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚힡햬쫐뎡럖컶훐ꎬ쫐뎡볛룱늨뚯쫇웤퇐뺿뗄훘뗣쓚죝횮튻ꎬ뛸헢튻늨뚯쫇럱뫏샭ꎬ탨튪럖컶헟횱뷓냑컕짌욷힡햬쪵볊쫐뎡볛룱폫쫐뎡짏쯹듦퓚뗄뿍맛뫏샭볛룱횮볤뗄닮뛮ꎬ룹뻝닮뛮에뛏짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄럹뛈뫍랽쿲ꆣ붫힡햬ퟢ쇞쫐뎡폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡솪쾵웰살좷뚨힡햬뿍맛뫏샭볛룱믲볛횵뗄폐킧랽램쫇붫힡햬쓪뺻쫕틦돽틔쫊떱뗄횱뷓놾뮯싊살좷뚨ꎬ쯼쫇힡햬쫐뎡튵죋풱뺭뎣닉폃뗄랽램ꆣ웤쿠펦뗄럖컶릫쪽캪ꎺ힡햬볛룱(ꏖ)= 쓪뺻쫕틦 (ꏎꏏꏉ)/놾뮯싊ꎨRꎩ (4ꎭ1)릫쪽훐뗄놾뮯싊뿉춨맽탭뛠훖춾뺶좡뗃ꎬ뷶퓚컒맺튻뻅뻅뻅쓪냤늼뗄ꆶ힡햬맀볛맦랶ꆷ훐ꎬ뻍쳡돶쇋쫐뎡쳡좡램ꆢ뢴뫏춶쫕틦싊램뗈좷뚨놾뮯싊뗄랽램ꎬ웤훐뗄뢴뫏춶쫕틦싊램틲닙ퟷ볲뇣ꆢ쇏죝틗믱좡쟒럻뫏맦랶튪쟳뛸뗃떽쇋맣랺펦폃ꆣ닉폃뢴뫏춶쫕틦싊램볆쯣횱뷓놾뮯싊R뗄릫쪽캪ꎺR=M*MC+ꎨ1-Mꎩ*Re쪽훐ꎺRe캪ퟔ폐놾튪쟳뗄헽뎣쫕틦싊ꎨꎥꎩꎻMC캪뗖톺듻뿮놾뮯싊ꎨꎥꎩꎬ벴뗚튻쓪뮹놾쾢뛮폫뗖톺듻뿮뛮뗄뇈싊ꎻM캪듻뿮볛횵뇈싊ꎨꎥꎩꎬ벴뗖톺듻뿮웚돵뛮D햼힡햬볛횵뗄뇈싊ꆣ웤볆쯣릫쪽죧쿂ꎺM=D/V좻뛸ꎬ퓚쪵볊펦폃틔짏뢴뫏춶쫕틦싊램좷뚨놾뮯싊쪱ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡튵죋풱좴뎣뎣틲캪뛔ퟔ폐놾헽뎣쫕틦싊놾훊틔벰ퟔ폐놾춶쫕틦벰웤춶럧쿕뗄늻좷뚨탔좱랦헽좷죏쪶ꎬ떼훂ퟔ폐놾쫕틦싊뗄좷뚨ힼ퓲룷늻쿠춬ꎬ죊헟볻죊ꆢ훇헟볻훇ꆣ폐닉폃튻쓪웚뚨웚듦뿮샻싊ퟷ캪ퟔ폐놾쫕틦싊뗄놨룦ꎬ폐닉폃쪵훊샻싊ퟷ캪ퟔ폐놾쫕틦싊뗄움맀ꎬ튲폐닉폃튻냣탔뗄춶샻죳싊ퟷ캪ퟔ폐놾쫕틦싊뗄럖컶ꎬ뮹폐뗄튵죋풱닉폃튻쓪웚믵뿮샻싊ꆢ쓚늿쫕틦싊ꆢ뢴뫏샻싊ꆢ맺햮샻싊뗈럖컶ퟔ폐놾쫕틦싊ꆣ헢킩랽램룷폐닠훘ꎬ쪵볊퓋폃쪱좷뚨뗄쫕틦싊튲92
잧닮췲뇰ꆣ듓뛸펰쿬떽평듋쫕틦싊볆쯣돶뗄힡햬뿍맛볛룱뗄릫헽ꆢힼ좷탔ꆣ틲듋ꎬ캪뫏샭펦폃뢴뫏춶쫕틦싊램좷뚨힡햬놾뮯싊ꎬ뿆톧뗘볆쯣힡햬볛룱ꎬ뇜쏢힡햬늨뚯럖컶듭컳벰평듋떼훂뗄닆닺뻀럗뗄랢짺ꎬ폐뇘튪얪쟥놾쫕틦싊놾훊뫍웤볆쯣랽램ꆣ ퟔ폐놾쫕틦싊뗄놾훊퓚힡햬뿍맛볛룱럖컶훐쯹닉폃뗄ퟔ폐놾쫕틦싊쫇붫힡햬쎿웚뺻쫕틦ꎨIONꎩ뿛돽쎿웚햮컱횧뢶뛮ꎨTMPꎩ뗄폠뛮ꎬ퓙돽틔춶헟ퟔ폐놾뫳쯹뗃떽뗄뇈싊ꆣ쯼쳥쿖쇋힡햬춶헟퓚좨틦춶짏뗄쫕틦ꎬ캪쇋뻟폐뿉뇈탔ꎬ쯹좡뗄쫕틦튻냣캪쮰잰쫕틦ꎨFCTBꎩꆣ룹뻝짏쫶맘폚ퟔ폐놾쫕틦싊Re뗄뚨틥뿉틔뗃떽ꎺퟔ폐놾쫕틦싊(R)e=쮰잰쫕틦()FCTB/ퟔ폐놾()E ꎨ4-2ꎩ평폚컒맺돇쫐쪵탐뗄쫇맺폐췁뗘폐쿞웚쪹폃훆뛈ꎬ폖틲캪ퟔ폐놾헽뎣쫕틦싊쫇힡햬헽뎣뺭펪쓪좨틦쫕틦폫ퟔ폐놾좨틦뗄뇈싊ꎬ틲듋퓚힡햬쓪뺻쫕틦늻뇤ꎬ늻뾼싇힡햬럖웚뎥햮뛔좨틦뗄펰쿬쪱ꎬ컒맺ퟔ폐놾좨틦E뿉평쿂쪽볆쯣뛸뗃ꎺNOI−PMT1NOI1TL−TE=*[1−()]+*[1−()] (4-3)TYE+YEYE*(1+YE)+YE쪽훐ꎺ L캪힡햬쪹폃쫕틦쓪웚ꎬ쯼튻냣캪췁뗘엺ퟢ쓪쿞ꎻT캪듻뿮웚ꎻEY캪힡햬춶쫕틦싊ꆣ듋뒦뗄춶쫕틦싊EY쫇튻훖쓚늿쫕틦싊ꎬ쯼랴펳쇋돵웚좨틦E뗄믘쫕ꆢ믹놾믘놨ꆢ힡햬퓶횳뫍뎥햮뫳뗄좨틦믽샛뗈늿럖ꆣ뛸퓚뢴뫏춶쫕틦싊램뗄Re좴캴랴펳틔짏쓚죝ꆣ뇈뷏릫쪽ꎨ4-2ꎩ뫍릫쪽ꎨ4-3ꎩ훐볆쯣E뗄쯣램탎쪽ꎬ뿉틔럖컶돶ꎺEY폫Re뗄몬틥폐뷏듳뗄닮틬ꎬRe쪵훊짏쫇붫힡햬좨틦쫕틦뮯캪좨틦볛룱뗄ퟔ폐놾횱뷓놾뮯싊ꆣ 믹폚폐쿞쓪웚쪹폃뗄횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄볆쯣퓚힡햬춶훐ꎬ힡햬뗖톺듻뿮웚ꆢ돖폐웚틔벰힡햬쪹폃쓪쿞뚼믡펰쿬떽힡햬ퟔ폐놾뗄쫕틦싊ꎬ평폚컒맺췁뗘엺ퟢ쓪쿞튻냣뎤폚믲뗈폚힡햬뗖톺듻뿮웚뫍돖폐웚ꎬ틲듋ꎬ내힡햬춶쫐뎡뗄쪵볊퓋탐쳘헷틔벰듻뿮웚ꆢ돖폐웚틔벰췁뗘엺ퟢ쓪쿞횮볤뗄맘쾵뿉붫힡햬ퟔ폐놾뗄쫕틦놳뺰럖캪죽훖쟩뿶ꎺ튻쫇힡햬돖폐웚킡폚뗖톺듻뿮웚뗄쟩뿶ꎻ뛾쫇힡햬돖폐웚뫍췁뗘엺ퟢ쓪쿞쿠춬뗄쟩뿶ꎻ죽쫇힡햬돖93
폐웚뎤폚뗖톺듻뿮웚뗄쟩뿶ꆣ틲캪뗚죽훖쿖쿳뷩폚뗚튻ꆢ뛾솽훖쿖쿳횮볤ꎬ쯹틔놾컄훷튪헫뛔뗚튻ꆢ뛾솽훖쟩뿶뷸탐첽쳖ꆣ1ꎩ힡햬돖폐웚킡폚뗖톺듻뿮웚쪱횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄볆쯣룹뻝힡햬볛룱릹돉샭싛ꎬ맀볛쪱뗣뗄힡햬볛룱쫇맀볛쪱뗣뗄듻뿮뛮뫍ퟔ폐놾좨틦횮뫍ꆣ뾼싇떽춶헟돖폐힡햬웚쿞뗄펰쿬ꎬ떱힡햬돖폐웚N킡폚듻뿮웚ꆢ듻뿮샻싊캪RM쪱ꎬ힡햬볛룱V평쿂쪽볆쯣ꎺV=D+E쪽훐ꎺNE=BTCF*(P/A,N,YE)+BTER/(1+YE) (4-4)BTCF----힡햬돖폐웚쓚쎿웚쮰잰좨틦쫕틦ꎻBTER----돖폐웚쒩힡햬춶헟뗄좨틦횵ꎻꎨP/A,N,YEꎩ---틔N뫍YE캪닎쫽뗄쓪뷰쿖횵쾵쫽ꆣ웤훐ꎺBTCF=NOI−PMTPMT=Dꎨ/P/AꎬTꎬRMꎩ퓲ꎺNE=[NOI−Dꎨ/P/AꎬTꎬRMꎩ]*(P/A,NYE)+BTERꎨ/1+YEꎩ ꎨ4-5ꎩ쪽훐ꎺBTER=V−ROSBN*DNROSBN캪N웚듻뿮럖웚뢶뿮뫳캴뎥뮹폠뛮햼듻뿮뛮뗄냙럖뇈OSBNPMT*ꎨP/AꎬT−NꎬRMꎩꎨP/AꎬT−NꎬRMꎩROSBN=== (4-6)DDꎨ/ꎬꎬꎩ떱돖폐웚쒩힡햬퓶횵캪G쪱ꎬDꆢE뫍돖폐웚쒩힡햬볛룱VN캪ꎺD=M*VV=(1+G)*VNMVM*VꎨP/AꎬT−NꎬRMꎩ1E=[NOI−]*ꎨP/AꎬNꎬYEꎩ+ꎨ[1+GꎩV−]*NꎨP/AꎬTꎬRMꎩꎨPAꎬTꎬRMꎩꎨ+YEꎩ솽뇟돽틔V뗃ꎺNOIMM*ꎨP/AꎬT−NꎬRMꎩ1 (4-7)E/V=[−]*ꎨP/AꎬNꎬYEꎩ+ꎨ[1+Gꎩ−]*NVꎨPAꎬTꎬRMꎩꎨPAꎬTꎬRMꎩꎨ+YEꎩNOI붫횱뷓놾뮯싊릫쪽R=듺죫쪽ꎨ4-7ꎩ훐뗃ꎺV94
MM*ꎨP/AꎬT−NꎬRMꎩ11−M=[R−]*ꎨP/AꎬNꎬYEꎩ+ꎨ[1+Gꎩ−]*NꎨP/AꎬTꎬRMꎩꎨPAꎬTꎬRMꎩꎨ+YEꎩNꎨ1+YEꎩ−1ꎨP/AꎬNꎬYEꎩ=NYE*ꎨ1+YEꎩNꎨ1+YEꎩ−1솽뇟돽틔ꎬ늢붫R틆쿮뫳뗃ꎺNYE*ꎨ1+YEꎩNꎨ1+YEꎩ−1+MYEYEYE*M*ꎨP/AꎬT−NꎬRMꎩꎨ4-8ꎩR=ꎨ1−Mꎩ*YE*+−G*−[−]NNNꎨ1+YEꎩ−1ꎨP/AꎬTꎬRMꎩꎨ1+YEꎩ−1ꎨ1+YEꎩ−1ꎨ[1+YEꎩ−1]*ꎨP/AꎬTꎬRMꎩ틲캪ꎺYEYEYE*M*ꎨP/AꎬT−NꎬRMꎩYEꎨ1−Mꎩ*−[−]=M*ꎨROSBN−1ꎩ*NNNNꎨ1+YEꎩ−1ꎨ1+YEꎩ−1ꎨ[1+YEꎩ−1]*ꎨP/AꎬTꎬRMꎩꎨ1+YEꎩ−11MC=ꎨP/AꎬTꎬRMꎩYESEF=YENꎨ1+YEꎩ−1쯹틔릫쪽ꎨ4-8ꎩ뿉뮯캪ꎺR=ꎨ1−Mꎩ*YE+M*MC−G*SEF−M*(1−ROSBN)*SEF ꎨ4-9ꎩYEYE2ꎩ힡햬돖폐웚뫍췁뗘엺ퟢ쓪쿞쿠춬쪱횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄볆쯣컒맺돇쫐췁뗘폐쿞웚쪹폃훆뛈늻춬폚쫀뷧탭뛠맺볒뗄췁뗘훆뛈ꎬ쯼랴펳떽힡햬ퟔ폐뷰쫕틦싊뗄쯣램짏튲돊쿖튻뚨뗄쳘쫢탔ꆣ평폚돇쫐맺폐췁뗘쪹폃떽듯엺ퟢ쓪쿞쪱ꎬ췁뗘컞뎥놻맺볒쫕믘ꎬ쯹틔ꎬ튵훷뗄힡햬쪹폃쫕틦쓪뗄ퟮ듳횵뻍쫇췁뗘엺ퟢ쓪쿞ꎬ쿠뛔펦뗄힡햬좨틦볛룱캪ꎺDTE=[NOI−]*ꎨP/AꎬTꎬYEꎩ+NOI*(P/A,L−TYE)/(1+YE)ꎨ4-10ꎩꎨP/AꎬTꎬRMꎩ붫쪽ꎨ4-10ꎩ솽뇟돽틔V뫳뗃ꎺT1−M=[R−M*MC]*ꎨP/AꎬTꎬYEꎩ+R*(P/A,L−T,YE)/(1+YE)ꎨ4-11ꎩ헻샭ꎨ4-11ꎩ쪽뫳뗃ꎺLT(1+YE)−1(1−M)*YE*(1+YE)R*[]=M*MC+LL−TT(1+YE)−(1+YE)(1+YE)−1LL−TL(1+YE)−(1+YE)(1−M)*YE*(1+YE)R=M*MC*+LL(1+YE)−1(1+YE)−1붫MC듺죫짏쪽뗃ꎺ95
T−TR*(1+R)1−(1+YE)(1−M)*YEmmR=M**+T−L−L(1+R)−11−(1+YE)1−(1+YE)m−T11−(1+YE)R=[M*R*+(1−M)*YE] ꎨ4-12ꎩm−L−T1−(1+YE)1−(1+R) 짌욷힡햬볛룱늨뚯럖컶쮼슷룹뻝듋횱뷓놾뮯싊뿉틔볆쯣돶짌욷힡햬뗄뿍맛뫏샭볛룱ꎬ붫쯼폫쪵볊힡햬붻틗볛룱쿠뇈뷏ꎬ벴뿉듓짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ꆢ힡햬ퟢ쇞쫐뎡뮥뚯뗄뷇뛈럖컶돶짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄럹뛈ꆢ늨캻틔벰폫뿍맛볛횵뗄욫샫뗄돌뛈ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ죧맻듓힡햬쫐뎡붻틗볛룱뫍ퟢ쇞볛룱죫쫖ꎬ럖컶힡햬쫐뎡짏놾뮯싊뗄늨뚯ힴ뿶ꎬ춬퇹튲뿉틔듯떽틬쟺춬릤뗄킧맻ꆣ 횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄볬퇩폫늨뚯럖컶틔짏쯹쳖싛뗄쓚죝뷶뷶쫇놾뮯싊뗄볆쯣랽램ꎬ떫퓚힡햬쫐뎡럖컶훐ꎬ맀볛릤ퟷ헟쳘뇰맘탄뗄컊쳢쫇닉폃헢훖쯣램믱좡뗄뷡맻쫇럱뫏샭ꆢ쓜럱헦쪵뗘랴펳힡햬쫐뎡쯹쓜뷓쓉뗄쮮욽ꆣ캪듋ꎬ뿉샻폃햮컱놣헏뇈싊DCR뗄샭싛ꎬ붫쫐뎡짏뿉뷓쫜뗄ꆢ춨탐뗄햮컱놣헏뇈싊뗄좡횵랶캧ퟷ캪볬퇩횱뷓뮯싊뫏샭탔뗄훘튪뇪ힼ횮튻ꆣ룹뻝햮컱놣헏뇈싊뗄뚨틥뿉횪ꎺRDCR= ꎨ4-13ꎩM*MCR=DCR*M*MC퓚짌욷힡햬쫐뎡럖컶쪵컱훐ꎬ헫뛔쳘뚨맀볛뛔쿳뗄헽뎣DCR횵췹췹쓑틔ힼ좷뗃떽ꎬ떫웤좡횵뗄ퟮ듳횵뫍ퟮ킡횵좴죝틗뗃떽쫐뎡좷죏ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ뛔R뗄볬퇩릫쪽뿉뚨틥캪ꎺDCRmin*M*MC≤R≤DCRmax*M*MC ꎨ4-14ꎩ틔DCRmin뫍DCRmax럖컶횱뷓놾뮯싊늨뚯횵뗄헽뎣랶캧ꎬ내ꎨ4-14ꎩ볆쯣Rmin뫍Rmaxꎬ죧맻내짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쇏볆쯣뗄횱뷓놾뮯싊킡폚Rminꎬ퓲랴펳짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄볛룱늨뚯뒦폚뷏룟뗄늨캻ꎬ볌탸랢햹쿂좥믡펰쿬짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄붡뾵랢햹ꆣ죧맻내짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쇏볆쯣뗄횱뷓놾뮯싊듳폚Rmaxꎬ퓲랴펳짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄볛룱늨뚯뒦폚뷏뗍뗄늨캻ꎬ짌욷힡햬훃튵춶볛횵춹쿖ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄럧쿕뷏짙ꎬ튲랴펳쇋짌욷힡햬쫐뎡붻틗늻믮풾ꎬ쫐뎡뷏욣죭ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄늨뚯듓쇭튻뷇뛈랴펳쇋짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ첬ꆣ96
햬쫐뎡뗄럧쿕뷏짙ꎬ튲랴펳쇋짌욷힡햬쫐뎡붻틗늻믮풾ꎬ쫐뎡뷏욣죭ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄늨뚯듓쇭튻뷇뛈랴펳쇋짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ첬ꆣ 쪵횤퇐뺿헢샯퓋폃믹폚횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶쒣탍ꎬ틔커몺쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ퟷ캪낸샽뷸탐쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ1ꎩ쇏닉벯평폚컒맺짌욷힡햬붻틗쫐뎡쫇퓚랿룄틔뫳훰늽ퟟ쿲돉쫬ꎬ틲듋ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뗄쪱볤폫컷랽랢듯맺볒쿠뇈ꎬ쪱볤뷏뛌ꆣ퓚힡햬쫐뎡랢햹맽돌훐ꎬ평폚듦퓚틔쿂컊쳢ꎺ튻쫇죋쏇뗄힡햬쿻럑맛쓮죔춣쇴퓚ꆰ릺랿훃튵ꆱ뗄뷗뛎ꎬ힡햬뗄ퟔ폐싊룟ꎬ돇쫐뻓쏱뗄쇷뚯탔늻룟ꎬ뛔힡햬ퟢ쇞뗄훘쫓늻릻ꎻ뛾쫇ퟢ쇞맜샭랽낸늻뻟쳥ꆣ죧퓚좷뚨쓄킩랿컝뿉돶ퟢ믲늻퓊탭돶ퟢ뗈랽쏦짐쎻폐뻟쳥뗄랽낸뫍듫쪩ꆣ쳘뇰쫇뢣샻탔힡햬ꎬ웤쮽ퟔퟢꎬ늻뷶캥랴쇋웤뢣샻탔뗄돵훔ꎬ쪹룶죋럇램믱틦ꎻ춬쪱튲뛔ퟢ쇞쫐뎡볛룱뗄헽뎣퓋탐퓬돉쇋늻솼펰쿬ꆣ죽쫇랿컝ퟢ쇞쫐ꆢ쟸뛠벶ꆢ뛠닺좨맜샭쳥훆뗄뇗뛋ꆣ평듋떼훂돇쫐힡햬ퟢ쇞쫐뎡뗄랢폽룼췭ꎬ힡햬ퟢ쇞샺쪷쇏춳볆늻좫ꆢ늻ힼ좷ꆣ본폚듋ꎬ춨맽뛔낸샽돇쫐ퟢ쇞쫐뎡뫍힡햬붻틗쫐뎡춳볆쇏뗄뗷닩ꎬ퓚닉벯뗄쇏믹뒡짏ꎬ룹뻝쫽뻝춳볆뗄뿚뺶튻훂탔ꆢ쫽뻝뗄뿉뾿탔뗈풭퓲ꎬ뺭맽폫돇쫐랿뗘닺맜샭늿쏅틔벰쿠펦좨췾탅쾢랢늼믺릹뛠듎쳖싛ꎬ좷뚨틔뇭4ꎭ1뗄낸샽돇쫐2000쓪훁2004쓪뗄쿠맘쇏ퟷ캪럖컶뗄믹뒡쫽뻝ꆣ2ꎩ믹폚췁뗘쪹폃쓪웚쿞훆뗄횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄볆쯣평폚낸샽돇쫐힡햬춶믺탨쟳늻듳ꎬ틲듋퓚쪵횤퇐뺿훐틔힡햬돖폐웚뫍췁뗘엺ퟢ쓪쿞쿠춬쪱뗄쒣쪽볆쯣횱뷓놾뮯싊ꆣ뾼달럖컶웚볤힡햬뷰죚듻뿮뗄튻냣맦퓲ꎬ좷뚨힡햬듻뿮볛횵뇈싊캪ꎬ힡햬짌튵듻뿮쏻틥쓪샻싊캪%ꎬ쪵훊샻싊캪%ꎬ듻뿮쓪웚캪20쓪ꎬ춶쫕틦싊Ye좡6ꎥꎬ힡햬뗄쪹폃쓪웚캪웤폃뗘돶죃뗄ퟮ룟쓪웚ꎬ내컒맺램싉맦뚨캪70쓪ꎬ룹뻝릫쪽ꎨ4ꎭ12ꎩ볆쯣뗄횱뷓놾뮯싊캪%ꆣ룹뻝낸샽돇쫐힡햬퓋펪맽돌훐쯹횧돶뗄뿍맛럑폃ꎬ좷뚨펪퓋럑싊캪10ꎥꆣ내듋볆쯣힡햬뗄쓪뺻쫕틦NOIꆣ룹뻝ꎨ4ꎭ1ꎩ좷뚨뗄짌욷힡햬뿍맛쫕틦샭싛볛룱볻뇭4ꎭ1쯹쪾ꆣ97
뇭4ꎭ1 낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱늨뚯뇭힡햬떥캻힡햬샭싛볛쪵볊볛룱욫샫샭싛쓪럝힡햬볛룱ퟢ뷰룱볛룱뗄늨럹ꎩ낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡볛룱뗄늨뚯럖컶붫힡햬쪵볊춳볆뗄욽뻹볛룱폫짌욷힡햬뿍맛쫕틦샭싛볛룱쿠복ꎬ뿉뗃쪵볊볛룱욫샫샭싛볛룱뗄늨럹ꎬ듋늨뚯럹뛈볻춼4ꎭ3쯹쪾ꆣ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯춼800600400200020002001200220032004-200춼4ꎭ3 낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱늨뚯춼듓춼훐뿉틔뾴돶ꎺ2000쓪훁2002쓪낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯럹뛈늻듳ꎬퟔ2003쓪뾪쪼ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뾪쪼듳럹뛈쿲짏늨뚯ꆣ헢튻늨뚯맦싉쫇럱헽좷ꎬ쓜럱뗃떽볬퇩쓘ꎿ룹뻝잰튻뷚뗄쓚죝뿉횪ꎺ펦폃횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄늨뚯뿉틔뛔듋맛뗣뷸탐퇩횤ꆣ4ꎩ낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횱뷓놾뮯싊늨뚯럖컶룹뻝힡햬춶뗄믹놾샭싛틔벰햮컱놣헏뇈싊DCR뗄샭싛ꎬ붫쫐뎡짏뿉뷓쫜뗄ꆢ춨탐뗄햮컱놣헏뇈싊뗄좡횵랶캧좷뚨캪[ꎬ]ꎬ붫DCRminꎽ뫍DCRmaxꎽ듺죫쪽ꎨ4ꎭ14ꎩꎬ쯣뗃Rminꎽ뫍Rmax=ꆣ내횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄볆쯣릫쪽볆쯣쪵볊횱뷓놾뮯싊ꎬ볻춼4ꎭ4쯹쪾ꎬ틀뻝Rmin뫍Rmax볬퇩쪵볊횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄늨뚯ꎬ늢에뛏낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ힴ뿶ꆣ98
횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄늨뚯횱뷓놾뮯싊RminRmax춼4ꎭ4 낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횱뷓놾뮯싊늨뚯춼듓춼4ꎭ4뿉틔뾴돶ꎺ낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡퓚2000쓪훁2002쓪볤랢햹욽컈ꎬ2003쓪뫳ꎬ돶쿖힡햬붻틗쫐뎡췑샫힡햬ퟢ쇞쫐뎡횧돖뗄ힴ첬ꎬ짌욷힡햬죚뗄쫐뎡럧쿕쿔쿖ꎬ헢폫닉폃믹폚췁뗘폐쿞쓪웚쪹폃힡햬볛룱럖컶쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뷡맻튻훂ꆣ 벸뗣쮵쏷1ꎩ듓틔짏럖컶뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ믹폚놾뮯싊좷뚨짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쮼쿫ퟮ듳뗄폅풽탔뻍퓚폚쯹탨튪뗄퇹놾쫽뻝늻뛠ꎬ뛸쟒쓜춨맽춶쫕틦뗄럖컶헆컕짌욷힡햬뗄뿍맛뫏샭뗄쫕틦볛룱ꎬ뛔짌욷힡햬뺭펪춶뻶닟뻟폐늻뿉뫶쫓뗄샭싛뫍쪵볊볛횵ꆣ2ꎩ틔짏쯹쳖싛뗄ퟔ폐놾쫕틦싊돆캪ퟔ폐뷰횱뷓놾뮯싊붫룼폐샻폚ힼ좷닙ퟷ뢴뫏춶쫕틦싊램뫍횱뷓놾뮯램ꎻ3ꎩ짏쫶쯣램뗄잰쳡쫇힡햬볛룱짮쫜힡햬듻뿮뗄펰쿬ꎻ4ꎩ평폚춶쫕틦싊YE랴펳쇋돵웚좨틦E뗄믘쫕ꆢ믘놨ꆢ힡햬퓶횳뫍좨틦믽샛뗈틲쯘ꎬ뛸Re쫇붫힡햬좨틦쫕틦뮯캪좨틦볛룱뗄횱뷓놾뮯싊ꎬ쯹틔ꎬ퓚E뗄믘쫕ꆢ믘놨ꆢ힡햬퓶횳뫍좨틦믽샛뷔캪헽횵뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬYE펦듳폚Reꆣ죧맻퓚헽뎣맀볛뛔쿳뗄움맀훐돶쿖쇋Re듳폚YE뗄쿖쿳ꎬ쓇쎴룃힡햬맀볛뷡맻퓲쓑틔듯떽뫏샭탔뫍뿍맛탔뗄튪쟳ꎻ5ꎩ틔짏럖컶훐ꎬ죧맻듻뿮볛횵뇈싊M뫍햮컱놣헏뇈싊DCR살풴폚샠쯆힡햬뷰죚쫐뎡ꎬ쓇쎴내헕릫쪽퓲뿉볬퇩쟳좡힡햬릫뾪쫐뎡볛횵쯹쪹폃뗄횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄뫏샭탔ꎻ6ꎩ떱헫뛔튻훖쳘쫢뗄힡햬춶쒿뗄ꆢ듻뿮볛횵뇈싊M살풴폚듻뿮죋쳘쫢뗄죚탐캪쪱ꎬ닉폃릫쪽볆쯣뗃떽뗄놾뮯싊쯹랴펳뗄힡햬볛룱붫늻쫇힡햬쫐뎡뿍99
맛볛룱ꎬ뛸쫇헫뛔폚쳘뚨듻뿮죋뗄힡햬춶볛횵ꆣ듋쪱ꎬ헽뎣힡햬뷰죚쫐뎡뗄햮컱놣헏뇈싊DCR뻍늻쓜폃폚볬퇩횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄늨뚯뫍짌욷힡햬룶낸볛룱뗄룟뗍ꎻ7ꎩ맀볛뛔쿳뗄탔훊늻춬ꎬ놾뮯싊룷ퟩ돉늿럖뗄쪱뇤솿횵뫍럇쪱뇤솿횵튲늻춬ꎬ쯹닉폃뗄뗖톺듻뿮뗄놾뮯싊뫍ퟔ폐뷰놾뮯싊틔벰DCR튲늻믡쿠춬ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚놾뮯싊뗄볆쯣맽돌훐ꎬ룷닎쫽뗄좡횵펦룹뻝힡햬폃춾뫍럖컶쪱뗣뗈튪쯘뛸럖뇰좷뚨ꆣ틔짏쳡릩쇋듓짌욷힡햬춶헟뫍쫐뎡볛룱뗄뇭쿖럖컶짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ힴ뿶뗄샭싛쒣쪽뫍랽램춾뺶ꎬ뿉틔틀뻝듋쮼슷럖컶힡햬ퟢ쇞쫐뎡뫍짌욷힡햬붻틗쫐뎡횮볤늨뚯뗄뫍킳ힴ뿶ꆣ퓚쪵볊뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐훐ꎬ짦벰뗄틲쯘뛠ꎬ죧맻튪뾼달짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쓚췢튪쯘뛔웤늨뚯뗄펰쿬ꎬ퓲뿉뷨훺힡햬쫐뎡뚯솦톧뗄쮼쿫쒣쓢짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ힴ뿶ꆣ 힡햬쫐뎡볛솿뚯첬쒣탍뗄붨솢힡햬쫐뎡뗄퇐뺿퓚쿖뷗뛎훷튪쫇뛔힡햬볛룱뗄퇐뺿ꎬ뛔힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛솿뗄퇐뺿뷏짙ꆣ웤훐뛔룃샠퇐뺿펰쿬뷏듳뗄맛뗣쫇François Ortalo-MagnéꎬSven Radyꎬ, , John M. Quigley, G Donald Jud; Daniel T Winklerꆣ, [66]퓚럖컶늨쪿뛙뗘쟸1982쓪훁1994쓪랿볛늨뚯뗄쟩뿶ꎬ뗃돶쇋뺭퇩탔뷡싛ꎬ벴랿볛폫훆퓬튵뗄뻍튵싊ꆢ죋뿚춳볆쫽뻝ꆢ탂퓶붨짨솿ꆢ쟸폲뗄톧킣힢닡죋쫽폐맘ꆣ[67]John M. Quigley죏캪ꎺ쯤좻탭뛠뺭볃믹뒡뇤솿늻쓜뷢쫍뛌웚랿볛뗄듳늿럖뇤뮯ꎬ떫퓚뻅쪮쓪듺뫳웚ꎬ퇇훞랿컝쫐뎡뗄랢햹떼훂쇋맺볒뫍뗘쟸뺭볃쳵볾뗄룄짆ꆣGDonald Jud; Daniel T Winkler퇐뺿쇋쏀맺130룶돇쫐랿컝볛룱뗄뇤뮯쳘헷ꎬ뷡싛쫇랿컝볛룱뗄퓶횵쫜떽죋뿚뗄퓶뎤ꆢ헦쪵쫕죫뗄뇤뮯ꆢ붨훾돉놾뫍샻싊뗄훘튪펰쿬ꎬ[68]늢틲쟸캻뗄늻춬ꆢ돇쫐랢햹헾닟벰췁뗘샻폃쿞훆뗄늻춬뛸늻춬ꆣFrançois Ortalo-MagnéꎬSven Rady쳡돶쇋랿컝쫐뎡늨뚯뗄샭싛ꎬ뾪랢쇋폫쫕죫뫍듻뿮풼쫸폐맘뗄[69]짺쏼훜웚쒣탍ꎬ쯻쏇죏캪ꎺ뗚튻ꆢ랿볛쫜듻뿮풼쫸뗄쓪쟡죋쿖뷰쫕죫뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛸폫쫕죫뗄뫏볆쫽솿쿠뛀솢ꎻ뗚뛾ꆢ랿볛폫랿컝붻틗쫽솿헽쿠맘ꎻ뗚죽ꆢ랿볛뛔쫕죫돥믷닺짺맽뛈랴펳ꎻ뗚쯄ꆢ풤뢶뿮뗄복짙쓜벤랢쫐뎡쿲짏늨뚯ꆣ컒맺퓚힡햬쫐뎡뚯첬뇤뮯랽쏦뗄뚨탔퇐뺿좡뗃쇋튻뚨뗄돉맻ꎬ떫퓚뚨솿퇐뺿돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뇤뮯랽쏦횻쫇뾪쪼쫜떽훘쫓ꎬ놾컄퓚힡햬듦솿ꎭ퓶솿쒣탍틔벰맺췢6쿠맘퇐뺿뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ뷡뫏힡햬쫐뎡럖컶뗄쯵풼쒣탍ꎨReduced Form Modelꎩ뫍훐 6 Quigleyꎨ1999ꎩ쯹쳡돶뗄쯵풼쒣탍뿉볲뮯캪ꎺPh=f(INCOME,POP,VAC,COST,X)ꆣ쪽훐Ph100
맺돇쫐뺭볃뗄랢햹쪵볊ꎬ뾼싇돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄뗘쟸탔쳘헷ꎬ붫퓚뗚죽헂럖컶훐쯹좷뚨뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쏴룐탔틲쯘쓉죫떽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄뚯첬럖컶훐ꎬ첽쳖컒맺돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡맘볼뇤솿ꆪꆪ볛룱ꆢ쿺쫛쏦믽폫웤훘튪펰쿬틲쯘횮볤뗄뚨솿맘쾵ꎬ릹훾냼몬폐돇쫐뺭볃뇤솿ꆢ랿뗘닺쫐뎡뇤솿ꆢ힡햬릩탨뇤솿뗈퓚쓚뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뚯첬쒣탍ꎬ늢뛔돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯뇤뮯뷸탐쾵춳쒣쓢럖컶ꎬ릹붨럻뫏컒맺돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐ힴ뿶뗄힡햬늨뚯럖컶쒣탍ꆣ 힡햬쫐뎡볛솿뗄쪱탲뚯첬첽쳖1ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡볛솿뗄쪱탲뚯첬쒣탍뗄릹붨퓚힡햬쫐뎡뗄뒫춳샭싛럖컶훐ꎬ릩탨쮫랽붻뮥ퟷ폃뻶뚨볛룱뗄ퟮ믹놾맽돌뿉틔폃틔쿂뗄릫쪽뇭쫶ꎺdsPh=f(Q,Q) ꎨ4ꎭ15ꎩtttds쪽훐Ph뇭쪾t쪱뿌뗄힡햬쫐뎡볛룱ꎬQ뫍Q쫇t쪱뿌힡햬쫐뎡짏탨쟳뗄쫽솿titit뫍힡햬뗄릩룸쫽솿ꎬ쯼평쿂쪽쯹뻶뚨ꆣdQꎽD(Ph,INCOME,X)tttt ꎨ4ꎭ16ꎩꎭꎫsQ=S(Ph,VAC,Y)ttt ꎨ4ꎭ17ꎩꎫꎭ쪽훐t쪱뿌힡햬뗄탨쟳쫇t쪱뿌뗄힡햬볛룱뫍쫕죫틔벰웤쯼췢짺뇤솿뗄몯쫽ꎬ돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫폃INCOME뇭쪾ꎬ펰쿬힡햬탨쟳뗄웤쯼췢짺뇤솿폃X뇭쫶ꆣ춬퇹ꎬt쪱뿌힡햬뗄릩룸쫇t쪱뿌힡햬볛룱ꆢ뿕훃싊틔벰웤쯼췢짺뇤솿뗄몯쫽ꎬ뿕훃싊폃VAC뇭쪾ꎬ펰쿬힡햬릩룸뗄웤쯼췢짺뇤솿폃Y뇭쫶ꆣ룹뻝힡햬뺭볃뗄튻냣풭샭ꎬ힡햬뗄탨쟳쫇볛룱뗄복몯쫽ꎬ쫇돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫뗄퓶몯쫽ꆣ힡햬뗄릩룸쫇볛룱뗄퓶몯쫽ꎬ쫇뿕훃싊뗄복몯쫽ꆣ좻뛸퓚쿖뷗뛎뗄힡햬뺭볃샭싛훐ꎬ맘폚웤쯼힡햬쫐뎡췢짺뇤솿XꆢY뗄쳖싛뷏짙ꆣ캪듋뷨훺힡햬쫐뎡벰웤튪쯘맘쾵ퟛ뫏럖컶뗄뷡맻ꎬ뗃횪힡햬쫐뎡볛룱몯쫽뗄ퟔ뇤솿펦냼삨돇쫐GDPꆢ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶ꆢ돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫ꆢ죋뿚쫽솿ꆢ돇쫐붨돉쟸쏦믽ꆢ뗚뛾닺튵GDPꆢ뷰죚듻뿮뛮ꆢ닰잨붨훾쏦믽ꆢ펪튵폃랿쿺 뇭쪾힡햬볛룱ꎬINCOME뇭쪾돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫ꎬPOP뇭쪾돇쫐죋뿚뗄쿠맘횸뇪ꎬVAC뇭쪾뿕훃싊ꎬCOST뇭쪾붨훾돉놾ꎬX뇭쪾웤쯼췢짺뇤솿ꆣ101
쫛쏦믽뗈ꎬ틲듋ꎬ룹뻝듋럖컶붫쪽ꎨ4ꎭ15ꎩ뇤뮯캪ꎺPh=f(INCOME,POP,GDP,GDTZ,CSJCQMJ,ECGDP,DK,YYMJ,tttttttttCQ,UC,VAC,COST,STO,R,LOCAL,L(Ph))tttttttꎨ4ꎭ18ꎩ쪽훐GDP뇭쪾돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵ꎬGDTZ뇭쪾돇쫐만뚨닺춶뛮ꎬCSJCQMJ뇭쪾돇쫐붨돉쟸쏦믽ꎬECGDP뇭쪾뗚뛾닺튵닺횵ꎬDK뇭쪾뷰죚듻뿮뛮ꎬYYMJ뇭쪾짌튵펪튵폃랿쫐뎡뗄쿺쫛쏦믽ꎬCQ뇭쪾돇쫐랿컝닰잨쏦믽ꎬUC뇭쪾뻓쏱뗄힡랿쿻럑쟣쿲ꎬPOP뇭쪾돇쫐죋뿚쫽믲돇쫐볒뮧쫽솿ꎬSTO뇭쪾힡햬뗄듦솿ꎬR뇭쪾힡햬춶쫕틦싊ꎬCOST뇭쪾붨훾돉놾ꎬL(Pht)뇭쪾Pht뗄훍뫳쯣ퟓꎬLOCAL뇭쪾돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄쟸캻닮틬ꎬ웤쯼럻뫅뗄몬틥춬잰ꆣ평폚짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쾵춳퓋탐뗄맟탔틔벰탅쾢퓚쾵춳훐뒫뗝뗄쪱볤튪쟳ꎬ쾵춳쓚늿뗄뒫떼폐튻룶맽돌ꎬ쾵춳뗄췢퓚돥믷퓚늻쓜듯떽룄뇤짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쾵춳뷡릹닎쫽쪱ꎬ쫐뎡뗄쟷쫆죔퇘ퟅ풭폐뗄슷뺶퓋탐ꎬ떫늨뚯뗄럹뛈믲캻쫆믡랢짺뇤뮯ꆣ룹뻝돥믷믺훆믲ퟔ컒뗷뷚믺훆뗄ퟷ폃맦싉ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿폫웤쯻돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡릹돉뫍펰쿬틲쯘뗄맘쾵퓚쫽톧탎쪽짏뇭쿖캪춬늽믲럖늼훍뫳맘쾵ꎬ틲듋ꎬ퓚쪽4ꎭ18훐펦틽죫쪱훍뇤솿ꎬ볓짏훍뫳쯣ퟓꆣ춬퇹ꎬ룹뻝힡햬쫐뎡벰웤튪쯘맘쾵늿럖뗄럖컶ꎬ뗃횪힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛솿몯쫽뗄ퟔ뇤솿펦냼삨돇쫐GDPꆢ돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫ꆢ죋뿚쫽솿ꆢ뗚뛾닺튵GDPꆢ닰잨붨훾쏦믽ꆢ펪튵폃랿쿺쫛쏦믽뗈ꎬ틲듋ꎬ퓚힡햬쫐뎡릩룸솿뫍탨쟳솿쿠뮥ퟷ폃쿂ꎬ틀뻝쪽ꎨ4ꎭ16ꎩꆢꎨ4ꎭ17ꎩꎬ붫힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛쏦믽몯쫽뇭쫶캪ꎺAREA=f(INCOME,POP,GDP,ECGDP,CQ,YYMJ,UC,VAC,tttttttttCOST,R,LOCAL,L(Ph))tttꎨ4ꎭ19ꎩ쪽훐럻뫅뗄몬틥춬잰ꆣ2ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡볛솿뗄쪱탲뚯첬쒣탍뗄쪵횤럖컶뛾쪮쫀볍냋쪮쓪듺틔살ꎬ컒맺뺭볃릤ퟷ헟뾪쪼맘힢훐맺뗄뺭볃늨뚯컊쳢ꎬ뻅쪮쓪듺ꎬ놱몣ꆢ몣쓏뗄랿뗘닺엝쒭돶쿖틔뫳ꎬ죋쏇뛔랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄늨뚯첽쳖튲뾪쪼돶쿖ꎬ폐뗄톧헟죏캪헢쫇랿뗘닺훆뛈늻췪짆ꆢ헾닟쪧컳ꎬ믲뒫춳벯좨볆뮮쳥훆퓬돉ꎻ뛸쇭튻톧헟퓲잿뗷뷰죚믵뇒틲쯘ꆢ잿뗷풤웚뛔늨뚯뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ듓컒맺힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뗄쪵볹살뾴ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯늢럇떥틲쯘ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꎬ횻쫇폐쪱뫲쒳킩틲쯘햼훷튪틲쯘ꎬ폐킩틲쯘햼듎튪ퟷ폃뗄캻훃ꆣ1993쓪놱몣ꆢ몣쓏뗄뎴랿탐캪102
폕폚헾뢮맜샭뗄슩뚴ꎬ2004ꆫ2005쓪힡햬쫐뎡뗄틬뎣늨뚯폕폚탨쟳삭뚯볛룱짏퇯ꆣ평듋뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯쫇짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쓚늿뷡릹쳘헷쯹떼훂뗄쫐뎡뇤솿뗄뇤뮯벰웤뛔췢늿돥믷뗄랴펳ꎬ쫇쫐뎡뗄쓚틲뫍췢틲ퟛ뫏ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꆣ퓚쳘뚨돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ퟝ쿲쫽뻝럖컶쪱ꎬ듳돇쫐뫍쳘듳돇쫐뗄죋뿚뫍돇쫐붨돉쟸쏦믽춳볆쫽뻝늻믡퓚뛌웚쓚뇤뮯뷏듳ꎬ뾪럅탍뗄훐킡돇쫐믡쯦ퟅ돇쫐뺭볃뗄뇤뮯뛸늻뛏뇤뮯ꎬ늢쟒퓚쿖뷗뛎컒맺춳볆훆뛈쿂ꎬ쇷뚯죋뿚춳볆뷏쓑ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚듳돇쫐뫍쳘듳돇쫐뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡럖컶훐ꎬ죧맻돇쫐죋뿚쫽믲돇쫐볒뮧쫽솿POP뫍돇쫐붨돉쟸쏦믽CSJCQMJ뗈뇤솿쫽뻝뇤뮯늻쿔훸ꎬ쟒룃틲쯘뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄돋쫽킧펦늻춻돶쪱ꎬ벴뿉틔쫓ퟷ캪웤뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯펰쿬튲늻듳ꆣ퓚춬튻돇쫐훐ꎬ죋쏇뗄쮼쿫ꆢ탅쾢붻쇷뇣샻ꎬ뻓쏱뗄컄뮯ꆢ럧쯗쾰맟쿠닮컞벸ꎬ죋쏇뗄뻓힡쿻럑쟣쿲퓚헻쳥짏뻟폐튻뚨뗄쟷춬탔ꎬ틲듋퓚4ꎭ18뫍4ꎭ19쒣탍뗄쪵횤럖컶훐ꎬ춬튻돇쫐뗄UC뇤솿뫍LOCAL뇤솿뿉뫶싔늻볆ꆣ뇤솿STO퓚쿖뷗뛎뗄춳볆훐쓑틔믱뗃웤쫽뻝ꎬ좻뛸쯦ퟅ힡햬듦솿쫐뎡뗄뷸튻늽랢폽ꎬ룃뇤솿횵뿉틔늹돤뷸쪵횤럖컶쒣탍훐ꎬ틲듋ꎬ퓚샭싛쒣탍뗄릹붨쪱뾼싇쇋룃뇤솿뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄펰쿬ꎬ퓚쿖뷗뛎뗄쪵횤퇐뺿훐ꎬSTO퓝쟒늻뾼싇ꆣ퓚컯볛ퟜ쮮욽믹놾컈뚨뗄잰쳡쿂ꎬ붨훾훘훃돉놾췹췹튲뷏캪컈뚨ꎬ웤뇤뮯뗄럹뛈튲늻믡첫듳ꆣퟔ짏쫀볍뻅쪮쓪듺틔살ꎬ탭뛠돇쫐뗄붨훾돉놾뇤뮯싊뷏짙ꎬ틲듋ꎬ퓚헢킩돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쪵횤럖컶쪱ꎬ붨훾돉놾COST뿉늻럅퓚쒣탍훐ꆣ죧맻듽럖컶뗄낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬붨퓬돉놾폐뷏듳뗄늨뚯ꎬ퓲탨퓚럖컶훐ꎬퟅ훘럖컶룃뇤솿뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬ꆣ힡햬춶쫕틦싊R쫇평짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쫕죫뫍짌욷힡햬춶죫돉놾캪ퟔ뇤솿뗄몯쫽ꎬ죧맻짌욷힡햬춶죫돉놾믹놾컈뚨ꎬ퓲힡햬춶쫕틦싊훷튪쫇평짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쫕죫쯹뻶뚨ꎬ폖평폚짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쫕죫폫짌욷힡햬볛룱뫍힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽폐맘ꎬ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽평짌욷힡햬뗄릩룸쏦믽쯹뻶뚨ꎬ뛌웚쓚짌욷힡햬릩룸뗄떯탔뷏킡ꎬ맊퓚짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뛌웚늨뚯럖컶쪱ꎬ짌욷힡햬볛룱뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯펰쿬뷏듳ꎬ퓚럖컶쒣탍훐붫짌욷힡햬볛룱늨뚯맦싉쏷컺쇋ꎬ힡햬춶쫕틦싊튲쓜췆떼돶살ꆣ짌튵펪튵폃랿쫐뎡뗄쿺쫛쏦믽YYMJ랴펳쇋짌튵펪튵폃랿쫐뎡퓋탐뗄늿럖ힴ첬ꎬ쯼폫돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쯤폐튻뚨뗄뮥뚯맘쾵ꎬ떫뇏뺹쯼쏇럖쫴폚돇쫐랿뗘닺쫐뎡훐늻춬뗄쾸럖쫐뎡ꎬ쯤폐튻뚨룅싊뗄틲맻맘쾵ꎬ떫튲늻쫇쳘뇰듳ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚힡햬쫐뎡쪵횤럖컶쫽뻝ퟔ평뛈늻듳뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뿉붫룃횸뇪듓쪵횤럖컶쒣탍훐뾼싇뫶싔ꎬ튻떩럖컶쫽뻝뗄ퟔ평뛈쓜릻싺ퟣ튪쟳쪱ꎬ뿉뾼싇붫YYMJ쓉죫떽돇쫐짌욷103
힡햬쫐뎡쪵횤럖컶횮훐ꆣ짌욷힡햬뿕훃싊쫇랴펳짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄훘튪횸뇪ꎬ좻뛸죋쏇뛔쯼뗄죏쪶캴듯돉릲쪶ꎻ춳볆뿚뺶늻튻훂ꎻ벴쪹폐룃횸뇪뗄춳볆쫽뻝ꎬ룷돇쫐짌욷힡햬뿕훃쏦믽쪱탲쫽뻝튲늻뎤ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚쿖뷗뛎짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶쪱ꎬVAC뇤솿퓝쟒늻폨뾼싇ꎬ듽쪱탲쫽뻝듯떽럖컶튪쟳쪱ꎬ퓙붫룃뇤솿볓죫쪵횤럖컶쒣탍ꆣ룹뻝틔짏럖컶ꎬ뷡뫏낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄뻟쳥쟩뿶ꎬ붫4ꎭ18쪽뇤뮯캪틔쿂뗄탎쪽ꎺPh=f(INCOME,GDP,GDTZ,ECGDP,DK,CQ,L(Ph)) ꎨ4ꎭ20ꎩtttttttt룹뻝돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쫇평폚돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡펰쿬틲ퟓ뛔쫐뎡붻틗볛솿뗄떯탔뻶뚨뗄믹놾쮼쿫ꎬ닉폃뛔쫽쒣탍맀쯣낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡볛솿뗄뚯첬늨뚯ힴ뿶ꆣꎨ1ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡볛룱뗄쪱탲뚯첬쒣탍뗄쪵횤럖컶퓚쒣탍럖컶훐ꎬ캪좫쏦냑컕낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡볛룱폫웤펰쿬틲쯘횮볤뗄떯탔맘쾵ꎬ틽죫럇쪱훍뗷헻뫍쪱훍뗷헻뗄솽샠쒣쪽ꎬ룹뻝ퟔ뇤솿틲쯘뗄늻춬ꎬ닉폃늻춬뗄뻟쳥쒣탍ꆣ쒣탍IꎺLOG(ZZJG) = C(1) + C(2)*LOG(INCOME) + C(3)*LOG(GDP)벴붫돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫INCOME뫍돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵GDPퟷ캪ퟔ뇤솿ꎬ붨솢돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱ZZJG폫ퟔ뇤솿횮볤뗄뚯첬맘쾵ꆣ붫낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿠맘쫽뻝틽죫룃쒣탍ꎬ뿉틔붨솢틔쿂맘쾵쪽ꎺLOG(ZZJG)=+*LOG(INCOME)+ *LOG(GDP)틔짏맘쾵쪽뫍쒣쓢닎쫽볬퇩럻뫏튪쟳ꎬ평룃맘쾵쪽뿉횪ꎺ돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫퓶볓10ꎥꎬ믡듸살돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱ꎥ뗄늨뚯뇤뮯ꎻ돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵퓶볓10ꎥꎬ믡듸살돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱2ꎥ뗄늨뚯뇤뮯ꆣ돇쫐뻓쏱쫕죫쮮욽뗄늨뚯뛔짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄늨뚯폐훘튪뗄펰쿬ꆣ쒣탍II: LOG(ZZJG)= C(1) + C(2)*LOG(INCOME) + C(3)*LOG(GDP) +C(4)*LOG(GDP2) + C(5)*LOG(GDTZ) + C(6)*LOG(FWCQMJ)벴룹뻝쪽ꎨ4ꎭ20ꎩ뗄믹놾쮼쿫ꎬ퓚늻뾼싇돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱늨뚯폕떼틲쯘쪱훍펰쿬쪱ꎬ붨솢뗄돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫ꆢ돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵ꆢ돇쫐뗚뛾닺튵짺닺ퟜ횵GDP2ꆢ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶GDTZ뫍돇쫐랿컝닰잨쏦믽FWCQMJ폫돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱횮볤뗄뚯첬맘쾵쪽ꆣ붫낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿠맘쫽뻝듺죫룃쒣탍뷸탐쒣쓢ꎬ뿉틔붨솢틔쿂뻟쳥104
쒣탍ꎺLOG(ZZJG)=+*LOG(INCOME)+*LOG(GDP)- *LOG(GDP2) +*LOG(GDTZ) - *LOG(FWCQMJ)틔짏맘쾵쪽뗄쿠맘쾵쫽Rꎽꎬ웤폫쒣쓢닎쫽볬퇩럻뫏튪쟳ꎬ평룃맘쾵쪽뿉횪ꎺ퓚짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뛠틲쯘ퟷ폃쿂ꎬ돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫ꆢ돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뫍좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뛔짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄늨뚯펰쿬룼캪쏷쿔ꎬ룼캪쏴룐ꎬ쯼쏇뗄늨뚯믡듸살돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱듳럹뛈뗄늨뚯뇤뮯ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄짏헇폖믡쳡룟돇쫐뗚뛾닺튵짺닺뗄돉놾ꎬ퓶볓돇쫐랿컝닰잨뗄럑폃ꎬ뛸떼훂헢킩튪쯘뇤솿횵뗄쿂붵ꆣ쒣탍III: LOG(ZZJG) = C(1) + C(2)*LOG(INCOME) + C(3)*LOG(GDP) +C(4)*LOG(GDP2) + C(5)*LOG(GDTZ) + C(6)*LOG(FWCQMJ) + C(7)*LOG(ZZJG(-1))벴퓚뾼싇돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱늨뚯폕떼틲쯘틔벰힡햬쫐뎡쓚짺뇤솿쪱훍펰쿬쪱ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡볛룱쓚짺뫍췢짺펰쿬틲쯘폫돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱횮볤뗄뚯첬맘쾵쪽ꆣ붫쿠맘쫽뻝듺죫룃쒣탍뷸탐쒣쓢ꎬ붨솢틔쿂뻟쳥쒣탍ꎺLOG(ZZJG) = + *LOG(INCOME) + *LOG(GDP) *LOG(GDP2) + *LOG(GDTZ) - *LOG(FWCQMJ) - *LOG(ZZJG(-1))틔짏맘쾵쪽뗄쿠맘쾵쫽Rꎽꎬ웤폫쒣쓢닎쫽볬퇩럻뫏튪쟳ꎬ평룃맘쾵쪽뿉횪ꎺ퓚짌욷힡햬볛룱늨뚯쓚짺뫍췢짺틲쯘ퟷ폃쿂ꎬ돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뫍돇쫐뗚뛾닺튵짺닺ퟜ횵솽뇤솿뛔짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄늨뚯펰쿬춹쿖ꎬ돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄늨뚯믡듸살돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱듳럹뛈뗄춬쿲늨뚯뇤뮯ꎬ돇쫐뗚뛾닺튵짺닺ퟜ횵뗄늨뚯튻랽쏦듸살쇋맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄늨뚯ꎬ듙뷸돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱춬늽늨뚯ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦쯼뗄늨뚯폖믡돉캪돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱듳럹뛈늨뚯뗄훆뫢웷ꎻ춬퇹ꎬ잰웚돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄짏헇튲믡훆풼돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆣ쒣탍IV: LOG(ZZJG) = C(1) + C(2)*LOG(INCOME(-1)) + C(3)*LOG(GDP(-1)) +C(4)*LOG(GDP2(-1)) + C(5)*LOG(GDTZ(-1)) + C(6)*LOG(FWCQMJ(-1)) +C(7)*LOG(ZZJG(-1))벴퓚뾼싇돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡췢짺뫍쓚짺뇤솿쪱훍펰쿬쪱ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡볛룱쓚짺뫍췢짺틲쯘뗄쪱훍펰쿬폫돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱횮볤뗄뚯첬맘쾵쪽ꆣ붫쿠맘쫽뻝듺죫쪱훍뗷헻쒣탍뷸탐쒣쓢ꎬ뿉뗃틔쿂뻟쳥쒣탍ꎺ105
LOG(ZZJG) = - *LOG(INCOME(-1)) - *LOG(GDP(-1)) +*LOG(GDP2(-1)) - *LOG(GDTZ(-1)) - *LOG(FWCQMJ(-1)) +*LOG(ZZJG(-1))틔짏맘쾵쪽뗄쿠맘쾵쫽Rꎽꎬ웤폫쒣쓢닎쫽볬퇩럻뫏튪쟳ꎬ평룃맘쾵쪽뿉횪ꎺ쯤좻듓쒣탍III훐뿉틔뾴돶떱웚뗄돇쫐뗚뛾닺튵짺닺ퟜ횵뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡볛룱폐튻뚨뗄훆뫢킧맻ꎬ떫퓚짌욷힡햬볛룱늨뚯쓚짺뫍췢짺틲쯘뗄쪱훍ퟷ폃쿂ꎬ잰튻쓪뗄돇쫐뗚뛾닺튵짺닺ퟜ횵뛔짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄늨뚯폐벫캪훘튪뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛸잰웚돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫뗄늨뚯뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄늨뚯펰쿬늻듳ꆣ틲듋ꎬퟛ뫏쒣탍III뫍쒣탍IV뗄럖컶뷡싛ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄뛌웚늨뚯럖컶펦틔돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뫍뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫ퟷ캪럖컶훘뗣ꎬ뎤웚늨뚯펦틔돇쫐뗚뛾닺튵짺닺ퟜ횵뗄늨뚯캪럖컶훘뗣ꆣ평폚쫽뻝뗄뻖쿞탔ꎬ잰쯄룶쒣탍뚼쎻폐뾼싇짧믡죚뛔짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛸힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹폖폫죚뛮뛈쾢쾢쿠맘ꎬ맊퓚뗷헻럖컶뗄쓪럝뫳ꎬ붨솢쒣탍Vꎺ쒣탍V: LOG(ZZJG) = C(1) + C(2)*LOG(DK) + C(3)*LOG(DK(-1))벴돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱늨뚯폫떱웚뫍잰튻웚돇쫐룷쿮듻뿮폠뛮횮볤뗄맘쾵뇭듯쪽ꆣ붫쿠맘쫽뻝듺죫쒣탍V뷸탐쒣쓢ꎬ뿉뗃ꎺLOG(ZZJG) = - *LOG(DK) + *LOG(DK(-1))뇭4ꎭ2 짌욷힡햬볛룱늨뚯쪱탲쒣탍뇭ퟔ뇤솿쒣탍I쒣탍II쒣탍III쒣탍IV쒣탍뿉횧엤쫕죫ꎨꎩ()()뿉횧엤쫕죫ꎨt-1ꎩ()맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵ꎨꎩ()()맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵(t-1)()뗚뛾닺튵짺닺ퟜ횵()()뗚뛾닺튵짺닺ퟜ횵(t-1)()좫짧믡만뚨닺춶()()좫짧믡만뚨닺춶(t-1)()106
닰잨붨훾쏦믽()()닰잨붨훾쏦믽(t-1)()뷰죚튵듻뿮폠뛮()뷰죚튵듻뿮폠뛮(t-1)()힡햬볛룱ꎨt-1ꎩ()()ꎨ 뷘뻠()()()()ꎩ힢ꎺ뇭훐삨뮡쫽뻝캪룃닎쫽뗄t볬퇩횵틔짏맘쾵쪽뗄쿠맘쾵쫽Rꎽꎬ웤폫쒣쓢닎쫽볬퇩럻뫏튪쟳ꎬ평룃맘쾵쪽뿉횪ꎺ떱웚돇쫐룷쿮듻뿮폠뛮쎻폐짏쓪뛈돇쫐룷쿮듻뿮폠뛮뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡볛룱뗄펰쿬듳ꆣ틲듋ꎬ평짌욷힡햬쯹틽웰뗄돇쫐뷰죚럧쿕펦쳡잰럀랶ꆣꎨ2ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡붻틗솿뗄쪱탲뚯첬쒣탍뗄쪵횤럖컶춬퇹ꎬ룹뻝낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡럖컶믹뒡ꎬ붫4ꎭ19쪽훐쿠맘뇤솿뷸탐쪡싔ꎬ뮯캪틔쿂뗄탎쪽ꎺAREA=f(INCOME,GDP,ECGDP,CQ,L(Ph))tttttt쪽훐AREA캪돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡붻틗뗄쫽솿ꆣ캪럖컶짌욷힡햬붻틗솿폫돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쓚짺뫍췢짺뇤솿뗄떱웚믲잰웚횵뗄몯쫽맘쾵ꎬ놾컄닉폃틔쿂쯄룶쒣탍뷸탐첽쳖ꆣ쒣탍I: LOG(ZZXSMJ) = C(1) + C(2)*LOG(INCOME) + C(3)*LOG(GDP)벴붫돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫뫍돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵ퟷ캪ퟔ뇤솿ꎬ붨솢돇쫐짌욷힡햬붻틗쏦믽ZZXSMJ 폫ퟔ뇤솿횮볤뗄몯쫽맘쾵ꆣ붫낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿠맘쫽뻝틽죫룃쒣탍ꎬ뿉틔붨솢틔쿂맘쾵쪽ꎺLOG(ZZXSMJ) = + *LOG(INCOME) - *LOG(GDP)틔짏맘쾵쪽뗄쿠맘쾵쫽Rꎽꎬ웤폫쒣쓢닎쫽볬퇩럻뫏튪쟳ꎨ볻뇭4ꎭ3ꎩꎬ평룃맘쾵쪽뿉횪ꎺ돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫늨뚯믡듸살돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛솿뗄듳럹뛈늨뚯뇤뮯ꆣ쒣탍II: LOG(ZZXSMJ) = C(1) + C(2)*LOG(INCOME) + C(3)*LOG(GDP) +C(4)*LOG(GDP2) + C(5)*LOG(FWCQMJ)룹뻝돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫ꆢ돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵ꆢ돇쫐뗚뛾닺튵짺닺ퟜ횵뫍돇쫐랿컝닰잨쏦믽폫돇쫐짌욷힡햬붻틗솿횮볤뗄맘쾵쪽ꎬ붫낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡107
쿠맘쫽뻝듺죫룃쒣탍뷸탐쒣쓢ꎬ뿉틔붨솢틔쿂뻟쳥쒣탍ꎺLOG(ZZXSMJ) = + *LOG(INCOME) + *LOG(GDP) *LOG(GDP2) - *LOG(FWCQMJ)틔짏맘쾵쪽뗄쿠맘쾵쫽Rꎽꎬ웤폫쒣쓢닎쫽볬퇩럻뫏튪쟳ꎨ볻뇭4ꎭ3ꎩꎬ평룃맘쾵쪽뿉횪ꎺ떱웚뗄돇쫐뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫뫍돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뛔짌욷힡햬쿺쫛솿뗄늨뚯펰쿬쏷쿔ꎬ쯼쏇뗄늨뚯믡듸살돇쫐짌욷힡햬쿺쫛솿듳럹뛈뗄늨뚯뇤뮯ꆣ쒣탍III: LOG(ZZXSMJ) = C(1) + C(2)*LOG(INCOME(-1)) + C(3)*LOG(GDP(-1))+ C(4)*LOG(GDP2(-1)) + C(5)*LOG(FWCQMJ(-1)) + C(6)*LOG(ZZJG(-1))룹뻝돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡볛룱쓚짺뫍췢짺틲쯘뗄쪱훍펰쿬폫돇쫐짌욷힡햬붻틗솿횮볤뗄뚯첬맘쾵ꎬ붫쿠맘쫽뻝듺죫짏쪽ꎬ뿉뗃틔쿂쪱훍쒣탍ꎺLOG(ZZXSMJ) = - *LOG(INCOME(-1)) + *LOG(GDP(-1)) *LOG(GDP2(-1)) - *LOG(FWCQMJ(-1)) - *LOG(ZZJG(-1))틔짏맘쾵쪽뗄쿠맘쾵쫽Rꎽꎬ웤폫쒣쓢닎쫽볬퇩럻뫏튪쟳ꎨ볻뇭4ꎭ3ꎩꎬ평룃맘쾵쪽뿉횪ꎺ퓚짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쓚짺뫍췢짺틲쯘뗄쪱훍ퟷ폃쿂ꎬ짏튻쓪돇쫐맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵뛔짌욷힡햬붻틗솿뗄늨뚯폐벫캪훘튪뗄펰쿬ꎻ돇쫐뗚뛾닺튵짺닺ퟜ횵뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡붻틗솿폐튻뚨뗄훆뫢킧맻ꎬ떫뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫뗄늨뚯뇤뮯뛔짌욷힡햬붻틗솿뗄늨뚯펰쿬좴폐뛀쳘뗄킧펦ꎺ떱웚뗄쫕죫늨뚯펰쿬짌욷힡햬붻틗쏦믽뗄춬쿲듳럹늨뚯ꎻ뛸짏튻쓪뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫뗄늨뚯뛔놾웚뗄짌욷힡햬붻틗뗄늨뚯펰쿬풶뷏짏튻쓪돇쫐맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵뛔짌욷힡햬붻틗솿뗄늨뚯펰쿬킡ꆣ쒣탍IV: LOG(ZZXSMJ) = C(1) + C(2)*LOG(ZZJG) + C(3)*LOG(ZZJG(-1))룹뻝돇쫐짌욷힡햬붻틗솿늨뚯폫떱웚뫍잰튻웚돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱횮볤뗄맘쾵뇭듯쪽ꎬ붫쿠맘쫽뻝듺죫쒣탍IV뷸탐쒣쓢ꎬ뿉뗃ꎺLOG(ZZXSMJ) = + *LOG(ZZJG) + *LOG(ZZJG(-1))뇭4ꎭ3 짌욷힡햬붻틗솿늨뚯쪱탲쒣탍뇭ퟔ뇤솿쒣탍I쒣탍II쒣탍III쒣탍 뿉횧엤쫕죫ꎨꎩ()뿉횧엤쫕죫ꎨt-1ꎩ()ꎨ- 맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵 ()ꎩ맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵(t-1)() 뗚뛾닺튵짺닺ퟜ횵 ()뗚뛾닺튵짺닺ퟜ횵(t-1)() 닰잨붨훾쏦믽 ()108
닰잨붨훾쏦믽(t-1)()힡햬볛룱() 힡햬볛룱ꎨt-1ꎩ()()ꎨ- 뷘뻠()()()ꎩ힢ꎺ뇭훐삨뮡쫽뻝캪룃닎쫽뗄t볬퇩횵틔짏맘쾵쪽뗄쿠맘쾵쫽Rꎽꎬ웤폫쒣쓢닎쫽볬퇩럻뫏튪쟳ꎨ볻뇭4ꎭ3ꎩꎬ평룃맘쾵쪽뿉횪ꎺ떱웚뫍짏튻쓪뛈돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡볛룱뗄늨뚯랽쿲뫍럹뛈뚼펰쿬돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿺쫛뛮ꎬ뷼쓪뗄짌욷힡햬볛룱쿲짏늨뚯믡폕떼쿻럑헟뫍춶헟뗄탄샭풤웚ꎬ떼훂짌욷힡햬붻틗솿뗄삩헅ꆣ 힡햬쫐뎡볛솿뗄뫡뷘쏦뚯첬첽쳖1ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡볛솿뗄뫡뷘쏦뚯첬쒣탍뗄릹붨힡햬쫐뎡뗄뫡뷘쏦쫽뻝폫웤쪱탲쫽뻝늻춬ꎬ퓚뫡뷘쏦쫽뻝훐ꎬ쫽뻝뗣뗄쮳탲[70]컞맘뷴튪ꆣPh=f(INCOME,POP,GDP,GDTZ,CSJCQMJ,ECGDP,DK,YYMJ,tttttttttCQ,UC,VAC,COST,STO,R,LOCAL,L(Ph))tttttttAREA=f(INCOME,POP,GDP,ECGDP,CQ,YYMJ,UC,VAC,tttttttttCOST,R,LOCAL,L(Ph))ttt2ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡뫡뷘쏦뚯첬쒣탍뗄쪵횤럖컶ꎨ1ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡뫡뷘쏦쫽뻝뗄닉벯뇭4ꎭ4 훐맺15룶뢱쪡벶돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡벰웤쿠맘쫽뻝뇭만뚨돇쫐짺룷쿮듻돇쫐죋뻓쏱뿉랿볛뛾닺닺춶닺ퟜ횵횧엤쫕뿮폠뛮뿚돇쫐ꎨ풪/욽GDPꎨ틚뛮ꎨ틚죫ꎨ풪/ꎨ틚ꎨ췲ꎨ틚랽쏗ꎩ풪ꎩ죋ꎩ풪ꎩ풪ꎩ죋ꎩ풪ꎩ짲퇴듳솬뎤뒺맾뛻뇵쓏뺩몼훝
쓾늨쿃쏅볃쓏쟠떺커몺맣훝짮?돉뚼컷낲힢ꎺ1ꆢ돇쫐죋뿚뗄쫽뻝캪2003쓪뗗쫽뻝ꎬ살풴폚ꆶ2004쓪훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ2ꆢ랿볛쫽뻝캪2004쓪뗗쫽뻝ꎬ살풴폚 2005-03-253ꆢ웤쯻쫽뻝캪2004쓪쫽뻝ꎬ햪뇠ퟔꆶ훐맺뺭볃뺰웸퓂놨200501ꆷ룹뻝컒맺돇쫐뺭볃춳볆뗄믹뒡뫍릫뾪뗄쇏ꎬ뷡뫏짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뫡뷘쏦쒣탍뗄첽쳖ꎬ놾컄틔컒맺15룶뢱쪡벶돇쫐캪퇹놾ꎬ틔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡볛룱쫽뻝캪럖컶뛔쿳ꎬ쯑벯쇋폫웤쿠맘뗄뺭볃쫽뻝쇏ꎬ볻뇭4-4쯹쪾ꎺꎨ2ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡뫡뷘쏦쫽뻝뗄뒦샭평폚돇쫐짌욷힡햬뗄릺싲훷쳥캪돇쫐뻓쏱믲볒춥ꎬ뛸볒춥폖평뻓쏱쯹릹돉ꎬ캪쇋돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿠맘쫽뻝횮볤뻟폐뿉뇈탔ꎬ붫짏뇭훐짺닺ퟜ횵ꆢ춶뛮ꆢ듻뿮폠뛮뗄쫽뻝뷸탐춳튻솿룙뒦샭ꎬ뮯캪틔ꆰ풪/죋ꆱ캪떥캻ꆣꎨ3ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡뫡뷘쏦뚯첬쪵횤쒣탍뗄릹붨룹뻝틔짏뒦샭뗄쫽뻝ꎬ붨솢틔쿂맘쾵쪽ꎺLOG(ZZJG) = C(1) + C(2)*LOG(INCOME) + C(3)*LOG(GDP) +C(4)*LOG(ECGDP) + C(5)*LOG(GDTZ) + C(6)*LOG(DK)짏쪽훐룷럻뫅뗄몬틥춬잰컄쯹쫶ꎬECGDP뇭쪾돇쫐뗚뛾닺튵짺닺ퟜ횵ꆣ틔듋캪믹뒡럖컶돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡퓚돇쫐뺭볃웤쯻튪쯘돥믷쿂볛룱늨뚯뗄ힴ뿶ꆣ붫뒦샭틔뫳뗄쫽뻝듸죫짏쪽뷸탐쒣쓢ꎬ뿉틔뗃떽틀뻝뫡뷘쏦쫽뻝쯹럖컶뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쒣쓢랽돌ꆣLOG(ZZJG) = + *LOG(INCOME) - *LOG(GDP) + *LOG(ECGDP)() () () ()+ *LOG(GDTZ) - *LOG(DK) () ()룃쒣쓢랽돌쿠맘쾵쫽R=ꎬ벴뿉틔뷢쫍돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱늨뚯뗄71ꎥ뗄럝뛮ꆣ랽돌룷쾵쫽틔쿂뗄삨뮡늿럖쫽뻝캪쿠펦뗄t볬퇩횵ꎬ듓쫽뻝뿉횪ꎬ볬퇩킧맻뷏뫃ꆣ듓랽돌쾵쫽뿉틔럖컶돶ꎺ컒맺룷퇹놾듳돇쫐횮볤랿볛뗄닮틬폫돇쫐뻓쏱뗄뿉횧엤뻟폐뷴쏜뗄솪쾵ꎬ돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱쫕죫떯탔뷏듳ꎬ쫕죫쿠닮10ꎥꎬ믡틽웰랿볛ꎥ뗄뇤뮯ꆣ붫짏쪽훐뗄쫕죫뇤솿듓쒣탍훐쳞돽쪱ꎬ쒣쓢랽돌뇤캪죧쿂탎110
쪽ꎺLOG(ZZJG) = + *LOG(GDP) - *LOG(ECGDP) + *LOG(GDTZ) *LOG(DK)평폚쫕죫쮮욽뷏뫃랴펳쇋튻룶돇쫐뗄죋뻹맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵쮮욽뗄룟뗍ꎬ쟒랿볛뛔쫕죫뗄룟뗍뷏쏴룐ꎬ틲듋ꎬ쯤좻돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄퓶볓쓜듙뷸돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹ꎬ떫퓚쫕죫쮮욽뇤뮯뷏듳쪱ꎬ돇쫐맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵랴뛸돉쇋돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뗄컈뚨웷ꆣ춬퇹뗄럖컶튲펦폃떽돇쫐좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뫍돇쫐룷쿮듻뿮폠뛮뗄맘쾵럖컶횮훐ꆣ떱떥뛀럖컶룷쿮듻뿮폠뛮폫돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤맘쾵쪱ꎬ듻뿮뗄퓶볓듙뷸돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹ꎬ떫평폚좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄헽랴삡ퟷ폃뷏듳ꎬ듻뿮뻍뇭쿖돶돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뗄컈뚨웷ퟷ폃ꆣ111
5 돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄움볛짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄쏴룐탔튪쯘뛔웤늨뚯펰쿬듳ꎬ떫쫐뎡늨뚯쫇룷훖틲쯘ퟛ뫏ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꎬ튪뫏샭뗘냑컕쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쳘헷ꎬ뮹탨ퟛ뫏움볛짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ힴ첬ꆣ놾늿럖퓚럖컶뇈뷏룷훖쫐뎡퓋탐ힴ뿶뿌뮭랽램뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ럖컶맺볊짏춨폃뗄CI뫍DI볆쯣랽램벰웤듦퓚뗄컊쳢ꎬ톡퓱힡햬쫐뎡럇헽뎣랢햹뗄풴쫽뻝횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ릹훾돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽움볛돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ힴ첬ꆣ 움볛쒣탍붨솢뗄놳뺰힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵ퟷ캪맺쏱뺭볃뗄횧훹닺튵ꎬ웤퓋탐ힴ뿶횱뷓맘쾵떽돇쫐쓋훁맺볒뺭볃뗄낲캣ꎬ짏쫀볍쒩뗄뚫쓏퇇뺭볃캣믺뫍쪮쓪잰컒맺놱몣ꆢ몣뿚뗄힡햬틬뎣퓋탐펰쿬쇋떱뗘뺭볃뗄쪮쓪랢햹ꎬ쇴쿂쇋돁춴뗄뷌통ꆣ2004쓪뫍2005쓪짏냫쓪ꎬ컒맺룶뇰돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡폖뾪쪼돶쿖쇋튻킩맽죈뗄벣쿳ꎬ퓙듎틽웰쇋맺쓚췢뗄룟뛈맘힢ꆣ맺췢뗄쿠맘퇐뺿훷튪퓚춨맽쫐뎡뗷닩첽쟳힡햬쫐뎡뇤뮯맦싉ꆢ힡햬쫐뎡펰쿬틲쯘ꆢ헾닟ퟷ폃폫맺볒뫍뗘랽뺭볃틔벰쿠맘닺튵뗄솪뚯맘쾵퇐뺿랽쏦ꎬ죧쏀맺힡랿뫍돇쫐랢햹늿ꎨHUDꎩ훷튪룹뻝힡햬쫐뎡ힴ뿶훆ퟷ뿉쪹폃뗄힡랿뗷닩쫽뻝ꎬ솪냮힡햬웳튵볠뚽냬릫쫒ꎨOFHHEOꎩ퓲훷튪쫇볠뿘Fannie Mae뫍Freddie Mae뗄뷰죚럧쿕ꎬ볓쓃듳춨맽웤내뷒폫힡랿릫쮾ꎨCMHCꎩ뫍볓쓃듳맺볒힡랿짧ꎨCNHAꎩ뷸탐쫐뎡뗷닩뫍맘볼횸뇪뫍횸쫽뗄풤닢럖컶ꆣ뗂맺ꆢ냄듳샻퇇ꆢ램맺뗈퓲틀뻝쫐뎡맛달ꎬ뛔랿뗘닺볛룱ꆢퟢ뷰뫍힡햬늻솼듻뿮뷸탐럖컶ꆣ퓚랿뗘닺쫐뎡늨뚯쳘헷횸뇪뗄톡폃랽쏦ꎬ폐뗄맺볒췆돶쇋ꆰ맾런횸쫽ꆱꆢꆰNBER뺰웸횸쫽ꆱꆢꆰ쳯듥횸쫽ꆱꆢꆰ놱쳵횸쫽ꆱꆢꆰ볛룱횸쫽ꆱ뗈뗈ꎬ헢킩횸뇪믲틲닉폃뗄쫽뻝폐쿞ꎬ믲틲뢲룇뗄쪱볤뷏뛌ꎬ컈뚨탔닮ꎬ쯹쏨쫶뗄뷡맻폫쪵볊늨뚯ힴ뿶돶쿖쇋뷏듳뗄욫닮ꎬ뛸럗럗뾪쪼탞뚩ꎬ뛸쟒헢킩횸쫽랴펳뗄쫐뎡쫇랿뗘닺헻쳥쫐뎡ꎬ쯼늻쓜ힼ좷랴펳럖샠쫐뎡죧힡햬쫐뎡뗄퓋탐맦싉ꆣ뛸맘폚돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯뗄샭싛퇐뺿웰늽뷏췭ꎬ붫웤랽램펦폃폚돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶뗄퇐뺿퓲룼캪짙볻ꆣ쿖뷗뛎ꎬ맺쓚췢랿뗘닺튵뷧뎣닉폃랿뗘닺뗄쿺쫛싊ꆢ뿕훃싊ꆢퟢ뷰믲볛룱ꆢ춶쫕틦싊ꆢ쪩릤쏦믽ꆢ뾪릤뾢릤쏦믽ꆢ랿컝춶뛮ꎬ췁뗘돶죃쏦믽뗈떥쿮횸뇪뫍삩즢횸쫽ꎨDiffusion indexꎬ볲돆DIꎩꆢ뫏돉횸쫽ꎨComposite indexꎬ볲돆CIꎩ112
뗈ퟛ뫏횸쫽살랴펳랿뗘닺쫐뎡뺰웸ힴ첬뫍힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐쟷쫆ꆣ튲폐뗄맺볒뛔힡햬쫐뎡닉폃뛀쳘횸뇪뷸탐떥뛀쏨쫶ꆣ죧쏀맺닉폃HEDONIC횸쫽뫍RS횸쫽ꆢ훐맺닉폃뗤탍랿뗘닺횸쫽살쏨쫶랿뗘닺쫐뎡퓋탐첬쫆ꆣ쏀맺뗄힡햬쫐뎡횸쫽릹붨퓚힡햬뛠캬쳘헷쫴탔뗄믹뒡횮짏ꎬ헢훖믹뒡퓚힡햬쫐뎡샭싛뫍쪵볹퇐뺿뷶쪮벸쓪뗄훐맺짐늻뻟놸ꎻ뛸훐맺맺쓚릫늼뗄랿뗘닺횸쫽뫍훐랿횸쫽쾵쫽튲뷶쫇틀삵폚쳘뚨쟸폲뗄랿뗘닺볛룱뫍붻틗솿ꎬ죔늻쓜좫쏦ꆢퟛ뫏ꆢힼ좷뗘랴펳쫐뎡뗄ퟜ쳥퓋탐쟷쫆뫍늨뚯ힴ뿶ꆣ훁폚쿺쫛싊ꎬ뿕훃싊ꆢ춶뛮뗈횸뇪튲횻쓜쮵쏷랿뗘닺쫐뎡퓋탐뗄죴룶뇰랽쏦뗄쳘헷ꎬ늻쓜듺뇭힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸ힴ뿶ꆣ맺쓚뷼쓪살퓚랿뗘닺훜웚늨뚯럖컶벰볠닢풤뺯쾵춳뗄횸뇪쳥쾵붨솢랽쏦쳡돶쇋튻킩릹쿫ꎬ퓚샻폃훐랿횸쫽ꆢ맺랿횸쫽벰뗘랽탔랿뗘닺볛룱횸뇪뛔랿뗘닺퓋탐ힴ뿶뗄쏨쫶랽쏦좡뗃쇋첽쳖탔돉맻ꎬ늢쟒퓚커몺ꆢ짏몣ꆢ짮?뗈돇쫐펦폃짱뺭췸싧샭싛ꆢ쾵춳뫋샭싛뫍뺰웸늨뚯ꆢퟛ뫏쒣쓢샭싛뫍랽램쇬폲좡뗃쇋튻뚨뗄샭싛돉[71]맻ꆣ떫헢킩돉맻뮹뻖쿞퓚늿럖샭싛닣쏦ꆣ맺쓚췢웕뇩닉폃뗄쓜릻뛈솿랿뗘닺뺭볃믮풾돌뛈ꆢퟛ뫏쏨쫶뫍풤닢랿뗘닺쫐뎡퓋탐쟷쫆뗄삩즢횸쫽ꎨDIꎩ뫍뫏돉횸쫽ꎨCIꎩ쯤쓜샻폃훚뛠뗄뺭볃횸뇪내튻뚨[72]뗄맦퓲볆쯣돶튻룶ퟛ뫏횸쫽ꎬ떫퓚쪵볊뷡맻훐뺭뎣돶쿖뛾샠컊쳢ꎺ튻쫇틀뻝DI쯹좷뚨뗄늨탎ꆢ늨뚯캻쫆벰늨마늨럥틗죋캪뗘럅듳믲쯵킡ꎻ뛾쫇틀뻝DI횵쯹좷뚨뗄늨뚯첬쫆폫틀뻝CI횵쯹좷뚨뗄랿뗘닺쫐뎡퓋탐ힴ뿶늻튻훂ꎬ뛾헟늻쓜킭춬ꆣ듓샭싛뷇뛈뛸퇔ꎬ헫뛔폚춬튻룶랿뗘닺쫐뎡ꎬ퓚뾼싇쇋돤튪뗄펰쿬랿뗘닺쫐뎡퓋탐ힴ뿶뗄룷틲쯘뫳ꎬ컞싛닉폃뫎훖볆쯣쒣쪽뫍춾뺶ꎬퟮ훕쯹럖컶뗃떽뗄랿뗘닺쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ뿶펦폫뿍맛듦퓚뗄랿뗘닺쫐뎡퓋탐첬쫆놣돖튻훂ꆣ뛸퓚쪵볊릤ퟷ훐ꎬ평폚춳볆뿚뺶늻튻훂ꆢ샺쪷믽샛뗄쫽뻝닐좱늻좫ꆢ쳘뚨랿뗘닺쫐뎡퓋탐쳘헷뗄닮틬ꆢDI폫CI뗄볆쯣랽램쯹뒫뗝뗄탅쾢솿늢럇췪좫쿠춬ꎬ떼훂DI횵폫CI횵늻쓜췪헻ힼ좷랴펳돶춬튻랿뗘닺쫐뎡늨뚯맦싉ꎬ뛸횻랴펳돶룷ퟔ닠훘뗄튻랽쏦ꎬ죧DI횸쫽볆쯣쫇틔삩헅믲캮쯵뷗뛎뗄횸뇪룶쫽캪틀뻝ꎬ랴펳돶룷죫톡횸뇪헛뇤뮯뗄싻퇓횮쫆뫍삩헅탲쇐룶쫽햼ퟜ탲쇐룶쫽뗄냙럖뇈ꎻCI횸쫽볆쯣퓲훷튪뾼싇횸뇪탲쇐뗄ퟛ뫏뇪ힼ뮯욽뻹뇤뮯싊ꆣ평듋떼훂솽헟럖컶뷡맻뗄늻튻훂ꆣ틲듋ꎬ캪쇋뿍맛ꆢힼ좷ꆢ뿉뾿뗘뿌뮭ꆢ움에ꆢ럖컶힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐ힴ뿶ꎬ폐뇘튪릹퓬튻룶볈쓜ퟛ뫏랴펳힡햬쫐뎡룷훘튪탔횸뇪뇤뚯ힴ뿶ꎬ폖쓜돤럖랴펳DI뫍CI쯹퓘힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯탅쾢솿룟뗍뗄탂뗄ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽ꆣ쒿잰ꎬ짐캴볻뿋럾삩즢횸쫽ꆢ뫏돉횸쫽뗄쇓쫆ꆢ닉폃힡햬ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽ꎨBIꎩ뛔돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡캴살ힴ뿶뗄뺯쟩뷸탐퇐뺿뗄컄쿗놨뗀ꆣ113
ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄릹붨 횸뇪짨볆뗄ힼ퓲죎뫎튻룶횸뇪뗄붨솢뚼탨튪쫗쿈쏷좷릹훾룃횸뇪펦듯떽뗄쒿뇪ꆢ펦뷢뻶뗄훷튪컊쳢뫍힢틢튪뗣ꎬ퓚힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽릹붨맽돌훐ꎬ튲탨튪튵릤ퟷ헟쏷좷횸뇪짨볆펦듯떽뗄쒿뇪튪뗣ꎺ1ꎩ붨솢뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶뗄횸뇪펦돤럖뾼싇돇쫐짺닺솦쮮욽닮틬뛔힡햬랢햹뗄펰쿬ꎬ쓜랴펳돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡쳘뗣벰웤펰쿬틲쯘ힴ뿶ꆣ2ꎩ펦냼몬펰쿬돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쾵춳뮷뺳뫍췢짺뇤솿ꎬ놣횤짨볆뗄횸뇪쓜뿌뮭돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹폫웤짧믡뺭볃랢햹뗄킭뗷ힴ뿶ꆣ3ꎩ랴펳랿뗘닺ퟜ쫐뎡폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄킭뗷맘쾵ꎬ쳥쿖힡햬뾪랢ꆢ쇷춨뗈룷뮷뷚튪쯘횮볤뫏샭랢햹쮮욽ꆣ ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸뇪뗄릹훾힡햬ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄믹놾릹퓬쮼쿫뻍쫇퓚뛔DI폫CI횸쫽쿲솿뷸탐쫽뻝뒦샭늢붨솢헻뫏믹뒡틔뫳ꎬ틀뻝DI횵폫CI횵뗄뺫뛈럖컶ꎬ?웺훷맛에뛏뗄뒦샭랽램ꎬ내헕룷ퟔ훐컳닮뗄룟뗍뫍좨훘볆쯣샭싛폫쮼쿫ꎬ좷뚨룷헻뫏믹뒡쫽뻝쯹퓘짌욷힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢솿뗄좨훘ꎬퟮ뫳뛔웤뷸탐볓좨욽뻹쟳돶힡햬짌욷쫐뎡뗄ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽ꆣ1ꎩ룄뷸뫳뗄삩즢횸쫽쒣탍뗄릹훾ꎨ1ꎩ삩즢횸쫽DI뗄볆쯣뒫춳틢틥짏뗄삩즢횸쫽쫇횸튻뚨쪱웚뎤뛈쓚삩헅탲쇐룶쫽햼ퟩ쓚좫늿폐킧탲쇐룶쫽뗄냙럖뇈ꆣ떫헢훖쮼쿫볆쯣돶뗄DI늻쓜랴펳떥룶횸뇪뗄뇤뮯럹뛈뛔헻룶짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뺯쟩뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛸쟒룃볆쯣쒣쪽믡틲탲쇐훐쫽뻝쇏뗄캢킡뇤뮯뛸떼훂풤뺯뷡맻뗄쳸풾뇤뮯ꎬ듓뛸닺짺풤뺯쪧헦뫍볆쯣뷡맻늻컈뚨뗄쿖쿳ꆣ캪쇋뿋럾듋좱쿝ꎬ탨뫏샭짨훃DI뗄쪾탔몯쫽UꎬU뗄짨훃뿉닉폃틔쿂솽훖쯣램ꎺititllX−XXꎬ믲 ꎨ5ꎭ1ꎩitit−1itU=U=ititCXCXiit−1iit−1쪽훐ꎨXꎬXꎬXꎬꆭꎬXꎬꆭꎬXꎩ쫇틔춳볆횸뇪뗄풴횸뇪쫽뻝ퟩ돉뗄쪱i1i2i3itiT볤탲쇐ꆣ떱돇쫐뺭볃뫍힡햬쫐뎡틔퓶뎤탔늨뚯랢햹쪱뿉닉폃잰튻쯣램ퟷ캪DI뗄쪾탔몯쫽ꎻ떱돇쫐뺭볃뫍힡햬쫐뎡틔욽뫢첬늨뚯랢햹쪱뿉닉폃뫳튻쯣램ퟷ캪DI뗄쪾114
탔몯쫽ꆣl돆캪욫뫃쯣ퟓꎬ틲횸쫽늨뚯랽쪽늻춬뛸뿉톡좡늻춬뗄횵ꎻC캪쒳튻ퟔ뚨i뎣쫽ꎬ튻냣퓚뗚i룶횸뇪뗄늨뚯잿뛈횸쫽훐톡좡뷏듳뗄횵ꎬl뫍C펰쿬힡햬쫐뎡늨i뚯뗄럹뛈ꎬ늻펰쿬늨뚯쟺쿟헛뗣뗄캻훃ꎬ뿉퓚쾵춳뗷쫔맽돌훐좷뚨쫊떱뗄닎쫽ꆣ틀뻝틔짏쪾탔몯쫽ꎬ뿉볆쯣돶탞헽뫳뗄t쪱뿌삩즢횸쫽DI횵캪ꎺlnX−Xnitit−1 ꎨ5ꎭ2ꎩDI=[W*]/W∑∑tiiCX=1=1iit−1쪽훐ꎬn캪쒳샠횸뇪뗄ퟜ쫽ꎻW쫇뗚i룶뺯쯘횸뇪뗄좨훘ꎻn캪횸쫽룶쫽ꆣi떱욫뫃쯣ퟓ캪1쪱ꎬ삩즢횸쫽DI뗄횵폲퓚[0ꎬ100%]횮볤ꎬ쿠펦뗄DI캪50%t쪱ꎬ뇭쪾삩헅폫쫕쯵뗄솦솿뻹뗈ꎬ컞짽붵뇤뮯ꎻ떱웤듓쿂쿲짏뒩맽50%쿟쪱ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐늨뚯훁마뗗ꎬ늢뾪쪼뢴쯕ꎻ떱웤DI듓짏쿲쿂뒩맽50%쿟쪱ꎬ쫐뎡늨뚯t훁룟럥늢평듋뾪쪼쪢벫퓲쮥횮쫆ꆣ떱욫뫃쯣ퟓ늻뗈폚1쪱ꎬ삩즢횸쫽DI뗄횵폲랢짺뇤뮯ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿠펦뗄삩헅폫쫕쯵뗄솦솿뻹뗈뗣튲랢짺룄뇤ꎬ퓚쪵볊닙ퟷ맽돌훐ꎬ뿉룹뻝쫔쯣뗄뷡맻좷뚨삩헅폫쫕쯵뗄뻹뫢뗣뗄욫뫃쯣ퟓ닎쫽횵adiꆣ틲캪뫏돉횸쫽CI횵뗄룟뗍횱뷓랴펳힡햬쫐뎡뺰웸돌뛈뗄잿죵뫍쫐뎡늨뚯뗄돌뛈ꎬ캪쇋붫DI횵뫍CI횵뷸탐헻뫏ꎬ뇜쏢죋쏇틀뻝DI횵뛔힡햬쫐뎡뺰웸ힴ뿶뗄컳에ꎬ탨붫삩즢횸쫽DI뮻캪횱뷓랴펳쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ뿶뗄SDI횵ꆣꎨ2ꎩ붫DI뮻캪횱뷓랴펳쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ뿶뗄SDI횵ꆣ뻟쳥뿉닉폃틔쿂쮼슷ꎺDIt떱듓쿂훁짏뒩맽adi쿟횮뫳ꎬ삩헅훰늽햼훷떼돉럖ꎬ늢쟒웤솦솿돊믽샛횮쫆ꎬ맊듋뷗뛎닉폃쿂쪽볆쯣SDI횵ꎺSDI=SDI+adi−DI ꎨ5ꎭ3ꎩtt−1tDIt떱듓짏훁쿂뒩맽adi쿟횮뫳ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뾪쪼쫕쯵ꎬ늢쟒DI횵폫adi쿟쿠뻠풽듳ꎬ쫐뎡쮥췋횮쫆풽잿ꎬ맊듋뷗뛎닉폃쿂쪽볆쯣SDI횵ꎺSDI=SDI−adi−DI ꎨ5ꎭ4ꎩtt−1t붫릫쪽ꎨ5ꎭ3ꎩꆢꎨ5ꎭ4ꎩ훐뗄뻸뛔쿮햹뾪ꎬ늢뾼싇DI폫adi횮볤뗄맘쾵ꎬ뿉붫쯼쏇볲뮯캪ꎺSDI=SDI−adi+DI ꎨ5ꎭ5ꎩtt−1t쪽ꎨ5ꎭ5ꎩ훐adi캪룷훖힡햬쫐뎡뺰웸뺯쯘횸뇪횵믽샛믲쮥복떽튻뚨돌뛈떼훂115
쫐뎡늨뚯랽쿲랢짺뇤뮯뗄솿횵ꎬ퓚쪵횤럖컶훐ꎬadi캪튻룶뎣쫽ꎬ뿉틀뻝뛠쓪럝뗄룷뺯쯘횸뇪욽뻹횵ퟷ쫊떱뗷헻좷뚨adiꎬ웤횵뗄룟뗍펰쿬늨뚯뗄캻훃ꎬ뛸늻펰쿬힡햬늨뚯뗄ퟟ쫆뫍랽쿲ꆣ웤훐SDIꎽ100ꆣ02ꎩ룄뷸뫳뗄뫏돉횸쫽볆쯣쒣탍뫏돉횸쫽돽쇋쓜풤닢뺭볃훜웚늨뚯뗄헛뗣췢ꎬ뮹쓜퓚쒳훖틢틥짏랴펳뺭볃훜웚늨뚯뗄헱럹ꆣ뫏돉횸쫽CI뫍삩즢횸쫽DI튻퇹ꎬ튲쫇듓뇭쪾룷훖뺭볃믮뚯뗄훷튪뺭볃횸뇪훐톡좡튻킩뛔뺰웸쏴룐뗄횸뇪ꎬ폃뫏돉룷횸뇪뇤뮯싊뗄랽쪽ꎬ냑컕뺰웸뇤뚯뗄듳킡ꆣ뫏돉횸쫽뗄릹돉튲럖캪쿈탐ꆢ튻훂ꆢ훍뫳횸뇪ퟩꎬ룷횸뇪ퟩ뗄릦쓜폫삩즢횸쫽뗄릦쓜쿠춬ꎬ쯹틔삩즢횸쫽뫍뫏돉횸쫽뎣뎣쪹폃튻쳗횸뇪ퟩꆣ룹뻝뫏돉횸쫽CI뗄뚨틥틔벰잰쫶뗄X쿲솿횵ꎬ캪뇣폚볆쯣믺뇠돌ꎬ뿉춨맽쪽ꎨ5ꎭ6ꎩ볆쯣CIꆣnTnX−XX−Xitititit1aci+[W*[()/[]/T]/W∑∑∑ii=1t=1=1it1it ꎨ5ꎭ6ꎩCI=CI*tt−1nTnX−XX−Xitititit1aci−[W*[()/[]/T]/W∑∑∑ii=1t=1=1it1it쪽훐aci캪뎣쫽ꎬ퓚쪵횤럖컶훐뿉좡100ꎬ웤훐CIꎽ100ꆣ03ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽BI횵뗄볆쯣쒣탍BI쫇퓚뛔SDI폫CI횸쫽쿲솿뷸탐탅쾢뒦샭믹뒡짏ꎬ쟳뗃뇪ힼ뮯틔뫳뗄ZSDI횵폫ZCI횵ꎬ틀뻝웤쯹퓘탅쾢솿벰웤뺫뛈럖컶ꎬ뛔ZSDI(t)뫍ZCI(t)뷸탐볓좨볆쯣쯹좷뚨뗄랴펳힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐쿖ힴ뫍캴살뺯쟩ힴ뿶뗄ퟛ뫏횸쫽BI(t)ꆣꎨ1ꎩ붨솢쫽뻝헻뫏믹뒡쿻돽솿룙뛔SDI뫍CI횵뗄펰쿬ꎬ붨솢컞솿룙펰쿬뗄ZSDI뫍ZCI쳥쾵ꆣ뻟쳥tttt뿉닉폃뇪ힼ뮯뇤뮯횮랽쪽ꎺSDI−SDICI−CItt ꎨ5ꎭ7ꎩZSDI=;ZCI=tSSDICI112쪽훐ꎺꎻ=(SDI−SDI)SDI=SDI∑SDI∑ttTT−1tt211ꎻCI=CIS=(CI−I)∑tCI∑tTT−1ttꎨ2ꎩ볆쯣DI횵폫CI횵뗄훐컳닮룹뻝컳닮샭싛뫍훐컳닮뒫능맦싉틀뻝릫쪽ꎨ5ꎭ2ꎩꆢꎨ5ꎭ6ꎩ췆떼돶DI폫CI116
뗄훐컳닮볆쯣릫쪽ꆣDI횵뗄훐컳닮볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ20nlWul−1iitσ=m ꎨ5ꎭ8ꎩ()DI∑tCCi=1ii0uu0Xititit쪽훐ꎺ캪뗄쪵볊볆쯣횵ꎬu=(X−X)/Xꎻm캪쪵닢횵쯹킯듸ititit−1it−1뗄퇹뗣컳닮ꆣ웤쯼럻뫅몬틥춬잰ꆣCI횵뗄훐컳닮볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ2n400W/B ꎨ5ꎭ9ꎩiiσ=m⋅CI⋅CIt−1∑nt02i=1(200−Wu/B)∑jjtjj=1T0쪽훐ꎺB=u/Ti∑itt=1ꎨ3ꎩ볆쯣ZSDI뫍ZCI뗄훐컳닮σσZSDIZCI룹뻝컳닮뒫능맦싉ꎬ뿉붫뇤뮻뫳뗄훐컳닮좷뚨캪뫍ꎬ웤볆쯣릫쪽죧쿂ꎺ11σ≈σꎻσ≈σ ꎨ5ꎭ10ꎩZSDItSDItZCItCItSSSDICI쪽훐ꎺσ=σSDItDItꎨ4ꎩZSDI뫍ZCI뗄좨훘럖컶좷뚨헻뫏믹뒡쫽뻝좨훘뗄랽램폐탭뛠훖ꎬ웤훐뷏뎣폃뗄랽램폐Delphi램ꆢ쿠뛔뇤틬쫽램ꆢ쳘헷횵뗈랽램ꎬ떫헢킩랽램훐폐킩훷맛탔뷏잿ꎬ폐킩뛔룶뇰뻟폐듖닮탔훊뗄쪵닢횵쎻폐뫜뫃뗄맽싋뫍움볛킧맻ꎬ쓑틔좷뚨돶뫏샭뗄좨훘ꆣ틲듋탨튪첽쟳튻훖룼폐쮵럾솦뗄좨횵볆쯣쒣쪽ꆣ룹뻝좨횵샭싛ꎬ좨훘쫇뫢솿쒳튻횸뇪횵뛔듽쟳ퟛ뫏횸뇪릱쿗싊듳킡뗄훘튪뇪ힼꎬ쫇뫢솿닉폃ZSDI횵폫ZCI횵뺫뛈룟뗍뗄훘튪횸뇪ꎬ뛸쟒좨훘폫훐컳닮뗄맘쾵쫇튻훖랴뇈맘쾵ꎬ컳닮풽킡ꎬ뺫뛈풽룟ꎬ뷡맻풽뿉뾿ꎬ퓚볓좨훐뗄럝솿풽듳ꎻ컳닮풽듳ꎬ뿉뾿탔풽닮ꎬ웤쯹뛔펦뗄횸뇪횵퓚볓좨ퟛ뫏횸쫽훐뗄몬솿풽킡ꆣ룹뻝틔짏쮼쿫ꎬ뿉뚨틥헫뛔폚t쳘뚨쪱볤ZSDI횵뗄좨훘캪PꎬZCI횵뗄좨훘캪Pꎬ죧맻톡뚨뎣쫽σꎬ퓲ꎺZSDIZCI0tt117
P=σ/σꎻP=σ/σZSDI0ZSDIZCI0ZCItttt떱P+P=1쪱ꎬ뿉췆떼돶ꎺZSDIZCIttσσZCIZSDIttP=ꎻP= ꎨ5ꎭ11ꎩZSDIZCIttσ+σσ+σZSDIZCIZSDIZCItttt짏쪽훐P뫍P룹뻝탅쾢쫽뻝뺫뛈럖컶샭싛ꎬ붫쿠맘뇭듯쪽듺죫ꎨ5ꎭ11ꎩZSDIZCI벴뿉뮯캪틔쿂볆쯣릫쪽ꎺ2n2*aci*wBiiCI(t−1)*∑nw(x−x)jitit−1i=12(aci−B∑jxj=1it−1P=ZSDI(t)22l−1nnSlwx−x2*aci*wBCIiitit−1ii*+CI(t−)*∑∑nw(x−x)CC*jitit−1=1i=12SDIiiit−1(aci−B∑jxj=1it−12l−1nlwx−xiitit−1∑CC*xi=1iiit−1P=ZCI(t)22l−1nnlwx−xS2*aci*wBiitit−1SDIii+*CI(t−1)*∑∑nw(x−x)CC*xSjitit−1=1=2iiit−1CI(aci−B∑jxj=1it−1ꎨ5ꎩ볆쯣짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽BI헻뫏ZSDI뫍ZCI쯹펵폐뗄힡햬뺰웸ힴ뿶탅쾢ꎬ내볓좨욽뻹랽쪽좷뚨t쪱뿌tt힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽BItBI=PZSDI+PZCI ꎨ5ꎭ12ꎩtZSDItZCIttt118
X−XTjtjt−1쪽훐B=[]/TꎻS뫍S캪SDI뫍CI뗄컞욫랽닮ꎻ웤쯼럻뫅∑SDICIjXt=1jt−1뗄몬틥춬잰ꆣ 믹폚BI뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯움볛쾵춳뗄짨볆 ퟜ벼쫵쇷돌짨볆캪붫틔짏쒣쪽쾵춳뮯ꎬ내틔쿂쮼쿫짨볆ퟜ뗄벼쫵쇷돌ꎺ1ꎩ뢰돇쫐쿠맘횰쓜늿쏅닉벯돇쫐뺭볃벰짌욷힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐뗄쿠맘쫽뻝ꎬ럖컶쫽뻝뗄췪헻탔뫍뿉뾿탔ꎻ2ꎩ틀뻝횸뇪짨볆뗄ힼ퓲ꎬ짨훃돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯움볛횸뇪쳥쾵뗄싟벭뿲볜ꎬ퓚럖컶뇈뷏룷훖쫐뎡럖컶랽램뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ쳖싛놸톡횸뇪쫕벯뗄뿉탐탔뫍뿉쓜탔ꎬ톡퓱믹폚ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽BI뗄돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꎻ3ꎩ릹훾ꆢ톡퓱힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯움볛뗄SDI쒣탍ꆢCI쒣탍ꆢBI쒣탍ꎻ4ꎩ캪쇋볬퇩믹폚BI럖컶돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뷡맻뗄뫏샭탔ꎬ뮹탨닉폃쇭췢뗄럖컶춾뺶첽쳖돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ힴ뿶ꎬ놾컄훐닉폃ퟛ뫏쒣쓢뗄랽램뷸탐ꎬ벴릹붨ퟛ뫏쒣쓢쒣탍ꎻ5ꎩ뷡뫏돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐쳘헷뫍맺쓚췢쫐뎡뺭볃횸뇪럖컶뗄풭샭ꆢ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯돉틲뗄뚨솿뫍뚨탔럖컶ꎬ좷뚨믹폚ퟛ뫏쒣쓢랽램뗄돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶뗄풴횸뇪ꎻ6ꎩ샻폃풴쫽뻝볆쯣ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽BIꎬ늢춨맽뛠랽램ꆢ뛠쒣탍퇩횤듽럖컶돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ힴ뿶믲쯼뗄캴살쟷쫆ꆣ ퟛ뫏뺰웸늨뚯럖컶쇷돌짨볆룹뻝뺰웸톭뮷늨뚯샭싛뫍룄뷸뫳뗄삩즢횸쫽SDIꆢCI뫍BI뗄릹훾쮼쿫ꎬ돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶뗄뻟쳥쇷돌짨볆죧쿂ꎬ죧춼5ꎭ1쯹쪾ꆣ1ꎩ좷뚨힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸늨뚯럖컶뗄풴횸뇪쳥쾵ꆣ2ꎩ쿈닉폃욽뮬램럖샫돶벾뷚늨뚯ꎬ죧맻쫇쓪뛈쫽뻝퓲뿉쪡싔듋늽훨ꎻ좻뫳ꎬ퓋폃쟷쫆랽돌쟳돶뺯풴횸뇪뗄뎤웚쟷쫆ꎬ늢붫웤듓풴쫽뻝훐럖샫돶살ꎻퟮ뫳ꎬ퓙뷸탐튻듎욽뮬ꎬ럖샫돶쯦믺늨뚯ꎬ뗃떽톭뮷늨뚯횵ꆣ119
3ꎩ죧맻탨튪뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄캴살ힴ뿶ퟷ돶풤놨ꎬ뮹탨뛔풴횸뇪뷸탐뚨쪱탔쓜럖컶ꎬ붫풴횸뇪쳥쾵럖캪쇬쿈횸뇪ꆢ튻훂횸뇪뫍훍뫳횸뇪ꆣ4ꎩ볆쯣삩즢횸쫽ꎨDI믲LDIꎩ뫍뫏돉횸쫽ꎨCI믲LCIꎩꎬ좻뫳볆쯣돶돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽횵ꎨBI믲LBIꎩꆣ5ꎩ샻폃BI럖컶ꆢ에뛏돇쫐힡햬뺭볃늨뚯뗄ힴ첬믲샻폃LBI캴살돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄퓋탐쟷쫆ힴ뿶ꆣ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뺯쯘횸뇪CI쒣뿩SDI쒣뿩횸뇪톭뮷늨뚯럖컶ꆢ쳞돽쟷뇪ힼ뮯볆쯣늨뚯쫆ꆢ벾뷚ꆢ쯦믺펰쿬잿뛈횸쫽볆쯣ퟛ뫏뇤뮯싊뚨쪱탔쓜럖컶볆쯣삩즢볆쯣뫏돉횸쫽SDI쿈탐춬늽횸쫽CI횵횵횸뇪횸뇪BI쒣뿩춬늽SDI쿈탐SDI쿈탐CI춬늽CICI벰DI좨훘뗄볆쯣SDI늨뚯럖컶CI늨뚯럖컶BI뗄좷뚨BI늨뚯럖컶춼5ꎭ1 짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸늨뚯럖컶쇷돌춼 힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ퟛ뫏쒣쓢쇷돌짨볆ퟛ뫏쒣쓢풤뺯램쫇닉폃뛠룶쒣쓢횸뇪벯돉뗄탎쪽ꎬ쒣쓢쫐뎡뗄퓋탐ힴ뿶ꎬ늢춨맽샠쯆폚붻춨탅뫅뗆뗄쮼쿫뷒쪾힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ뿶뗄랽램ꆣ웤믹놾쇷돌쫇ꎺ1ꎩ톡퓱힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏쒣쓢횸뇪ꎬ붨솢풴횸뇪쫽뻝뿢ꎬ늢틀뻝힡햬뺭볃풭샭뫍돇쫐쳘뗣좷뚨힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏쒣쓢늨뚯횸뇪ꎻ2ꎩ좷뚨룷늨뚯횸뇪뗄늨뚯ힴ첬뷧쿞뫍좨훘ꎬ에뛏돶쓄킩쫇헽뎣늨뚯쟸볤ꎬ쓄킩쫇틬뎣늨뚯쟸볤ꎻ3ꎩ볆쯣돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏쒣쓢럖쫽횵ꎻ4ꎩ좷뚨ퟛ뫏쒣쓢횸뇪뗄늨뚯ힴ첬뷧쿞ꎻ5ꎩ룹뻝탨튪ꎬ뮹뿉틔틀뻝횸뇪횵뇤뮯맦싉ꎬ풤닢웤힡햬랢햹첬쫆ꎻ6ꎩ내힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏쒣쓢횸뇪횵뗄룟뗍ꎬ럖컶돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ힴ뿶ꎬ뻝듋ꎬ쳡릩뫪맛뺭볃뫍랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄맦랶랢햹ꆢ힡햬춶뗄뻶닟틀뻝ꆣ120
짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯풴쫽뻝좷뚨힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뿢뗄붨솢뫏쒣쓢횸뇪힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏쒣쓢틀뻝힡햬쫐뎡풴쫽뻝볆쯣붨솢힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯횵뚨탔ꆢ뚨솿럖컶ퟛ뫏쒣쓢횵풴횸뇪뗄풤닢쒣탍좷뚨힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏풤닢폫ퟛ뫏쒣쓢폐맘뗄쒣쓢늨뚯뷧쿞ꆢ떥떥횸뇪늨뚯럖컶힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯풴횸뇪횸뇪좨훘짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏쒣쓢늨뚯럖컶춼5ꎭ2 짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏쒣쓢늨뚯럖컶쇷돌춼 펦폃쪵샽캪퇩횤짏쫶쒣탍뗄뫏샭탔틔벰럖컶돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뿉쓜탔ꎬ톡퓱커몺쫐ퟷ캪퇐뺿낸샽ꎬ뷸탐쪵횤럖컶ꆣ 믹폚ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯움볛1ꎩ풴횸뇪쳥쾵짨볆룹뻝힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯샭싛ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯훷튪쫜짌욷힡햬뗄쫐뎡릩탨ힴ뿶ꆢ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯헱떴췢짺뇤솿뫍힡햬뷰죚폫춶샠뇤솿쯹펰쿬ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄랽쿲틔벰늨럹훷튪평쯼쏇쿠뮥ퟷ폃뛸탎돉ꆣ퓚럖컶폫낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쿠맘뗄튻냙뛠룶횸뇪뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ룹뻝틔쿂풭퓲좷뚨낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶뗄믹뒡횸뇪ꆣꎨ1ꎩ쓜랴펳힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯벰웤튪쯘맘쾵볬퇩뗄뷡맻ꆣ랴펳GDPꆢ뛾닺GDPꆢ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶ꆢ돇쫐볒춥뻓쏱죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫ꆢ돇쫐랿컝닰잨ꆢ펪튵폃랿뫍냬릫폃랿폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄뮥뚯맘쾵ꆣꎨ2ꎩ뻟폐튻뚨뗄늨뚯탔ꆣ죧맻튻룶횸뇪퓚럖컶뗄쪱볤뛎쎻폐뇤뮯ꎬ믲뇤뮯뷏킡ꎬ퓲쮵쏷듋뷗뛎뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯늻쫇헢킩틲쯘ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꆣꎨ3ꎩ쳥쿖낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄뗘폲닮틬탔ꆣ틲캪힡햬쫐뎡쟸폲탔뷏잿ꆢ뻟폐쏷쿔뗄ힼ쫐뎡쳘헷ꎬ폫짌욷힡햬쫐뎡폐맘뗄횸뇪퓚튻룶돇쫐쫇웤힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄폕틲ꎬ떫퓚쇭튻룶돇쫐룃횸뇪좴늻튻뚨폐뇤뮯ꎻ뛸쟒쎿튻룶횸뇪퓚늻춬뗄돇쫐뮹폐뿉쓜뻟폐늻춬뗄쓚몭ꆣ틲듋ꎬ붨솢돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯움볛횸뇪쳥쾵펦121
돤럖뾼싇낸샽돇쫐춳볆횸뇪뗄닮틬뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄펰쿬ꎬ붨솢쫊뫏듽럖컶돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쳘뗣뗄움볛놸톡횸뇪쳥쾵ꆣꎨ4ꎩ풴쫽뻝닉벯뗄뿉탐탔ꆣ퓚돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶횸뇪쳥쾵뗄짨볆맽돌훐ꎬ펦룹뻝낸샽돇쫐쿖폐뗄뺭볃맜샭쳥훆ꎬ릹붨풴쫽뻝횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ쪹웤솢ퟣ뗄풴쫽뻝쓜릻춨맽뫏샭뗄쟾뗀뗃떽ꆣꎨ5ꎩ횸뇪뻟폐쏷좷뗄뺭볃틢틥ꎬ벴쯹톡좡뗄횸뇪퓚뺭볃짏뗄몬틥좷뚨ꎬ쓜랴펳힡햬쫐뎡뫍뺭볃뗄늨뚯ꎬ늻틗랢짺웧틥ꆣ틲캪짌욷힡햬쫐뎡놾훊짏쫇튻룶탐튵뺭볃믲뗘쟸뗄뺭볃쾵춳ꎬ틲듋ꎬ쯹톡퓱뗄늨뚯럖컶횸뇪튻뚨튪폐쏷좷뗄뺭볃틢틥ꆣ헢퇹ꎬ볈폐샻폚듓뺭볃틢틥짏쪶뇰늨뚯튪쯘뗄놾훊쳘헷ꎬ폖폐샻폚닉좡럻뫏뺭볃맦싉뗄쫖뛎뛔힡햬쫐뎡뷸탐뗷뿘ꆣ쎻폐뺭볃틢틥뗄횸뇪ꎬ벴쪹웤쯻쳘탔뫜뫃ꎬ튲늻쓜톡퓱캪럖컶횸뇪ꆣꎨ6ꎩ풴횸뇪쳥쾵뗄췪놸탔ꆣ뛔폚죎틢튻훖뺭볃늨뚯탎첬ꎬ뚼쓜듓횸뇪쳥쾵훐헒떽튻룶믲튻ퟩ횸뇪살헽좷뿌뮭힡햬퓙짺닺뗄좫맽돌ꎨ짺닺ꆢ쇷춨ꆢ럖엤ꆢ쿻럑ꎩ뫍룷룶퓋뚯탎첬ꎨ쪵컯ꆢ볛횵ꆢ쫐뎡ꎩꎬ쓜릻헽좷랴펳힡햬튵춬쿠맘닺튵뗄맘쾵ꆣ룹뻝틔짏풭퓲ꎬ좷뚨뇠훆낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄믹뒡횸뇪캪GDP퓶뎤싊ꆢ뗚뛾닺튵GDP퓶뎤싊ꆢ좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뛮퓶뎤싊ꆢ좫짧믡힡햬춶뛮퓶뎤싊ꆢ뾪랢힡햬춶뛮퓶뎤싊ꆢ탂퓶힡랿뾪랢웳튵듻뿮뛮퓶뎤싊ꆢ탂퓶룶죋힡랿듻뿮뛮퓶뎤싊ꆢ돇쫐볒춥뻓쏱죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫퓶뎤싊ꆢ돶죃췁뗘붻틗뷰뛮퓶뎤싊ꆢ돇쫐랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽퓶뎤싊ꆢ랿뗘닺쿮쒿릤돌엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽퓶뎤싊ꆢ힡햬쪩릤쏦믽퓶뎤싊ꆢ힡햬뾢릤쏦믽퓶뎤싊ꆢ힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽퓶뎤싊ꆢ힡랿쿺쫛뛮퓶뎤싊ꆢ힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽폫펪튵폃랿쿺쫛쏦믽횮뇈ꆢ힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽폫냬릫폃랿쿺쫛쏦믽횮뇈ꆢ힡햬쿺쫛쏦믽폫짌욷랿쿺쫛쏦믽횮뇈ꆣ평폚퓚럖컶뷗뛎쓚ꎬ낸샽돇쫐뗄죋뿚뫍폃뗘맦쒣뗄횸뇪횵뇤뮯뷏짙ꎬ맊퓚낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡럖컶훐쎻폐붫돇쫐죋뿚뫍돇쫐폃뗘맦쒣ퟷ캪뇠훆낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄틀뻝ꆣ2ꎩ볆쯣힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽룹뻝샭싛럖컶ꎬ캪ퟛ뫏럖컶낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ퟜ쳥늨뚯퓋탐ힴ뿶ꎬ펦ퟛ뫏럖컶DI뫍CIퟛ뫏ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꎬ릹퓬튻룶ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸뇪ꆣ틀뻝낸샽돇쫐뗄믹뒡쫽뻝뫍ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄릹훾쮼쿫ꎬ닉폃ퟛ뫏뺰웸럖컶쾵춳쇷돌ꎬ볆쯣힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽ꎬ죧뇭5ꎭ1쯹쪾ꆣ뇭5ꎭ1 낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뇭쓪럝19971998199920002001200220032004ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽
붫내짏쫶쒣탍뫍쇷돌볆쯣돶낸샽돇쫐룷쓪뗄힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽ꎨBIꎩ뇭쪾캪춼5ꎭ3쯹쪾ꆣ2힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽늨뚯짔죈짏쿞헽뎣늨뚯짏쿞헽뎣늨뚯쿂쿞늨뚯짔샤쿂쿞-278901234999000009990000011122222춼5ꎭ3 짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽3ꎩ믹폚ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄움볛ꎨ1ꎩ돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿈탐ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽움볛ힼ퓲캪좷뚨돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄헽뎣늨뚯쟸볤ꎬ뿉틔닉폃뚨탔럖컶뫍뚨솿럖컶쿠뷡뫏뗄랽램ꆣ틀뻝뺭퇩뗄럖컶쫜룶죋훷맛틲쯘펰쿬듳ꎬ떫뿉틔랴펳볒뗄훇믛ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯움볛쪱펦솦쟳퓚뚨솿럖컶뗄믹뒡횮짏ꎬ춨맽볆쯣룷ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄뻹횵뫍뇪ힼ닮ꎬ틔욫샫뻹횵튻놶뇪ힼ닮뗄쟸볤캪ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄헽뎣늨뚯쟸볤ꎬ욫샫뻹횵튻놶뇪ힼ닮폫욫샫뻹횵놶뇪ힼ닮횮볤뗄쟸볤캪낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쟷죈믲쟷샤퓋탐쟸볤ꎬ욫샫뻹횵놶뇪ힼ닮틔짏뗄쟸볤캪돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯맽죈믲맽샤퓋탐쟸볤ꆣ뛔뚨솿럖컶뗄뷡맻ꎬ룹뻝횸뇪쫽뻝뗄샺쪷돁믽ힴ뿶ꎬ뷡뫏ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄뇤뮯맦싉폨틔뗷헻ꎬ늢헷톯낸샽룷쿠맘늿쏅뗄틢볻틔뫳ꎬ좷뚨ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽늨뚯뗄움볛ힼ퓲ꆣ맦뚨짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏횸뇪늨뚯뗄헽뎣ힴ첬ꆢ믹놾헽뎣ힴ첬뫍틬뎣늨뚯ힴ첬ꎬ럖뇰폃맽죈ꆢ짔죈ꆢ헽뎣ꆢ짔샤ꆢ맽샤ힴ첬뇭쫶ꎬ룷ힴ첬뗄뷧쿞죧뇭5ꎭ2쯹쪾ꎺ뇭5ꎭ2 힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸ힼ퓲늨뚯움볛쟸볤뺭볃몬틥Vꎾ쫐뎡맽죈ꎬ탨뛔힡햬쫐뎡뷸탐뫪맛뗷뿘ꎼV≤쫐뎡늨뚯쟷죈ꎬ뛌웚쓚폐짔죈뫍쟷뮺뗄뿉쓜ꎼV≤쫐뎡늨뚯헽뎣ꎬ놣돖뺭볃컈뚨퓶뎤ꎼV≤쫐뎡늨뚯쟷샤ꎬ뛌웚쓚폐샤믲쟷컈뿉쓜V≤쫐뎡맽샤ꎬ탨닉폃폐솦듫쪩듙뷸힡햬쫐뎡붡뾵랢햹ꎨ2ꎩ럖컶뷡맻123
뷡뫏짏쫶짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽ꎬ뛔낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏럖컶죧쿂ꎺퟔ90쓪듺훐웚틔살ꎬ낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡훰늽쿲쿂늨뚯ꎬ쫐뎡쟷샤쓪럝캪1999쓪ꆫ2000쓪ꎬ웤폠쓪럝힡햬쫐뎡랢햹믹놾헽뎣ꆣ2003쓪힡햬쫐뎡쿲짏늨뚯ꎬ2004쓪힡햬쫐뎡쿲짏늨뚯뗄럹뛈폖퓚2003쓪뗄믹뒡짏폐쯹퓶볓ꆣ웤훰늽쳡룟뗄쫽횵쮵쏷힡햬쫐뎡퓚2004쓪뒦폚뷏룟뗄늨뚯캻쫆ꆣ 돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄ퟛ뫏쒣쓢움볛1ꎩퟛ뫏쒣쓢램횸뇪쳥쾵짨볆놾쿮쒿퓚럖컶낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶놸톡횸뇪뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ붫ퟛ뫏쒣쓢램쯹폃횸뇪뮮럖캪죽샠횸뇪ꎺ뗚튻샠횸뇪ꎺ랴펳힡햬뷰죚폫춶샠뇤솿ꆢ힡햬쫐뎡헱떴췢짺뇤솿뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯펰쿬ꎬ쳥쿖힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯폫웤췢짺뇤솿횮볤킭뗷맘쾵횸뇪ꎻ뗚뛾샠횸뇪ꎺ횱뷓랴펳랿뗘닺ퟜ쫐뎡폫힡햬쫐뎡붻틗볛솿횮볤뗄킭뗷맘쾵횸뇪ꎻ뗚죽샠횸뇪ꎺ랴펳힡햬쫐뎡ꆢ쇷춨쿻럑룷뮷뷚맘볼튪쯘킭뗷맘쾵뗄힡햬튵쓚늿룷튪쯘횮볤킭뗷맘쾵횸뇪ꆣꎨ1ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯폫웤췢짺뇤솿횮볤킭뗷맘쾵횸뇪톡좡힡햬튵퓶볓횵퓶뎤싊폫GDP퓶뎤싊횮뇈ꆢ힡햬쿺쫛뛮폫쿺쫛쏦믽횮뇈횵춬뿉횧엤쫕죫횮뇈ꆢ힡햬뾪랢힡햬춶뛮퓶뎤싊폫GDP퓶뎤싊횮뇈ꆢ힡햬뾪랢춶폫GDP횮뇈ꆢ힡햬뾪랢힡햬춶뛮폫좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뛮횮뇈ꆢ힡햬뾪랢춶뛮폫좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뛮횮뇈ꆢ힡햬룷쿮듻뿮폠뛮폫뷰죚튵듻뿮폠뛮횮뇈ꆢ탂퓶힡햬룷쿮듻뿮뛮폫탂퓶뷰죚튵듻뿮뛮횮뇈ꆢ룶죋힡랿듻뿮폠뛮폫힡랿쿺쫛뛮횮뇈ꆢ랿닺웵쮰폫GDP횮뇈뗈횸뇪뷸탐럖컶ꆣꎨ2ꎩ랿뗘닺ퟜ쫐뎡폫힡햬쫐뎡횮볤뗄킭뗷맘쾵횸뇪톡좡짌욷랿풤ꆢ쿖쫛쏦믽폫뾢릤뫍짏웚뿕훃쏦믽횮뫍뗄뇈횵ꆢ짌욷랿풤ꆢ쿖쫛쏦믽폫돇쫐죋뿚횮뇈ꆢ짌욷랿쿺쫛뷰뛮폫뒢탮듦뿮폠뛮횮뇈ꆢ힡햬쿺쫛욽뻹볛룱쮮욽폫ퟢ뷰쮮욽뇈ꆢ짌럾폃랿쿺쫛뻹볛폫욽뻹ퟢ뷰쮮욽뇈ꆢ냬릫폃랿쿺쫛뻹볛폫욽뻹ퟢ뷰쮮욽뇈ꆢ짌욷랿쿺쫛뷰뛮폫힡햬뾪랢춶뛮횮뇈ꆢ짌욷랿뿕훃쏦믽폫뷼죽쓪랿컝뾢릤쏦믽횮뇈ꆢ짏웚짌욷랿뿕훃쏦믽볓놾웚엺ힼ풤쫛쏦믽횮뫍폫놾웚쿺풤쫛쏦믽횮뇈ꆢ짌욷랿풤쫛쏦믽폫엺ힼ풤쫛쏦믽횮뇈ꆢ짌욷랿풤쿖쫛쏦믽폫엺ힼ풤쫛쏦믽횮뇈ꆢ짌욷랿풤쿖쫛쏦믽폫엺ힼ죝믽싊뻹횵횮뇈/쿮쒿엺ힼ폃뗘쏦믽뗈횸뇪ꆣ124
ꎨ3ꎩ힡햬튵쓚늿룷튪쯘횮볤킭뗷맘쾵횸뇪닉폃랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽ꆢ힡햬쿮쒿릤돌엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽폫랿컝쪩릤쏦믽횮뇈ꆢ랿컝쪩릤쏦믽폫랿컝뾢릤쏦믽횮뇈ꆢ랿컝뾢릤쏦믽폫짌욷랿풤쿺쫛쏦믽횮뇈뗈횸뇪살뫢솿힡햬튵쓚늿룷튪쯘횮볤뗄킭뗷맘쾵ꆣ2ꎩ좷뚨ퟛ뫏쒣쓢떥횸뇪뗄움볛ힼ퓲ꎨ1ꎩퟛ뫏쒣쓢램움볛ힼ퓲뗄좷뚨풭퓲ퟛ뫏쒣쓢램움볛ힼ퓲좷뚨닉폃뗄랽램폫ퟛ뫏뺰웸톭뮷램믹놾쿠춬ꎬ퓚헢샯튪럖뇰좷뚨쒳횸뇪뗄움볛ힼ퓲ꎬ좻뫳틀뻝룷훖뷡맻좷뚨캪튻룶ퟛ뫏ힼ퓲ꆣꎨ2ꎩퟛ뫏쒣쓢떥횸뇪움볛ힼ퓲뗄뚨솿럖컶ퟛ뫏쒣쓢떥횸뇪움볛쟸볤뗄움뚨ꎬ뿉틔닉폃뚨탔럖컶뫍뚨솿럖컶쿠뷡뫏뗄랽램ꆣ틀뻝뺭퇩뗄럖컶쫜룶죋훷맛틲쯘펰쿬듳ꎬ틲듋ꎬ놾쿮쒿솦쟳퓚뚨솿럖컶뗄믹뒡횮짏ꎬ춨맽볆쯣룷ퟛ뫏쒣쓢떥횸뇪뗄뻹횵뫍뇪ힼ닮ꎬ틔욫샫뻹횵튻놶뇪ힼ닮뗄쟸볤캪ퟛ뫏쒣쓢뺯쯘헽뎣늨뚯쟸볤ꎬ욫샫뻹횵튻놶뇪ힼ닮폫욫샫뻹횵솽놶뇪ힼ닮횮볤뗄쟸볤캪낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏쒣쓢횸뇪짔죈믲짔샤퓋탐헽뎣늨뚯쟸볤ꎬ욫샫뻹횵솽놶뇪ힼ닮틔짏뗄쟸볤캪ퟛ뫏쒣쓢횸뇪맽죈믲맽샤퓋탐쟸볤ꆣ뛔뚨솿럖컶뗄뷡맻ꎬ룹뻝횸뇪쫽뻝뗄샺쪷돁믽ힴ뿶ꎬ뷡뫏횸뇪뗄뇤뮯맦싉폨틔뗷헻ꎬ늢헷톯낸샽돇쫐룷쿠맘늿쏅뗄틢볻틔뫳ꎬ좷뚨ퟛ뫏쒣쓢떥횸뇪뗄움볛ힼ퓲ꆣ틀뻝틔짏뗄럖컶뫍에뛏ꎬ럖컶낸샽돇쫐룷샠힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏쒣쓢횸뇪뗄늨뚯ꎬ좷뚨ퟛ뫏쒣쓢램뗄움볛ힼ퓲ꆣ맩쓉룷떥횸뇪늻춬뗄움볛쟸볤ꎬ볻뇭5-3ꎬ좨훘볻뇭5-4쯹쪾ꆣ3ꎩ쒣쓢ퟛ뫏횸뇪움볛ힼ퓲뗄좷뚨힡햬쫐뎡ퟜ쳥퓋탐뗄ힴ뿶ꎬ쿠떱폚튻룶ퟛ뫏횸뇪ꎬ쫇룷횸뇪ퟛ뫏ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꆣ룷룶떥횸뇪뗄움볛쟸볤좷뚨뫳ꎬ뻍뿉틔붫룷떥횸뇪쯹뮮럖뗄쟸볤쿠펦뗘뚨틥캪맽죈ꆢ짔죈ꆢ컈뚨ꆢ짔샤ꆢ맽샤ힴ첬ꎬ폃뫬뗆ꆢ믆뗆ꆢ싌뗆ꆢ삶뗆ꆢ냗뗆살뇭쪾ꎬ늢럖뇰뢳5럖ꆢ4럖ꆢ3럖ꆢ2럖ꆢ1럖ꆣ평듋ꎬ뿉틔볆쯣쎿쓪룷횸뇪뗄ퟜ럖ꆣ짨횸뇪뗄좨훘캪Wiꎬ퓲룹뻝wi*xi뗄횵ꎬ럖컶낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡쒣쓢ퟛ뫏횸뇪뗄∑늨뚯쳘탔ꎬ내헕쿠춬쮼슷좷뚨힡햬쫐뎡쒣쓢ퟛ뫏횸뇪움볛ힼ퓲ꎬ뷡뫏낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄샺쪷퓋탐ힴ뿶ꎬ퓚맣랺헷쟳떱뗘볒틢볻뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ내헕늨뚯움볛ힼ퓲뗄좷뚨풭퓲ꎬ좷뚨쒣쓢ퟛ뫏횸쫽뗄움볛ힼ퓲캪4ꆢꆢꆢꎬ늢틔듋캪쯄룶쇙뷧뗣ꎬ웤뺭볃몬틥볻뇭5-5쯹쪾ꆣ125
뇭5-3 낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯움볛횸뇪쳥쾵벰웤움볛ힼ퓲탲쿮쒿맽샤짔샤헽뎣짔죈맽죈뫅짌욷랿쿺쫛욽뻹볛룱폫뻓1<~~~>힡햬쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫횮뇈쫐뎡랿뗘닺뾪랢힡햬춶퓶뎤2<~~~>늨뚯싊폫GDP퓶뎤싊횮뇈폫웤랿뗘닺뾪랢힡햬춶폫좫3<~~~>췢짺짧믡만뚨닺춶횮뇈뇤솿탂퓶랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮뛮폫4뗄킭<00~~~>탂퓶뷰죚튵듻뿮뛮횮뇈뗷럖룶죋힡랿듻뿮폠뛮폫힡햬컶5<~~~>쿺쫛뛮횮뇈힡햬볛룱쮮욽폫힡햬ퟢ뷰6힡햬<55~1515~3030~46>46쮮욽횮뇈쫐뎡짌욷랿뿕훃쏦믽폫뷼죽쓪7뇤솿>~~~<랿컝뾢릤쏦믽횮뇈늨뚯짌욷랿풤쫛쏦믽폫엺ힼ풤럖컶8<~~~>쫛쏦믽횮뇈9랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽<5454~9090~197197~269>269힡햬랿뗘닺쿮쒿릤돌엺ힼ붨훾튵쓚10<~~~>쏦믽폫랿컝쪩릤쏦믽횮뇈늿룷랿컝쪩릤쏦믽폫랿컝뾢릤튪쯘11>~~~~<쏦믽횮뇈킭뗷랿컝뾢릤쏦믽폫짌욷랿풤럖컶12>~~~<쿖쫛쏦믽횮뇈126
뇭5-4 낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯움볛횸뇪좨훘 떥캻:%탲듳샠쿮쒿좨훘뫅좨훘1힡햬쫐뎡늨짌욷랿쿺쫛욽뻹볛룱폫뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫횮뇈4뚯폫웤췢짺2랿뗘닺뾪랢힡햬춶퓶뎤싊폫GDP퓶뎤싊횮뇈2뇤솿뗄킭뗷3랿뗘닺뾪랢힡햬춶폫좫짧믡만뚨닺춶횮뇈342럖컶4탂퓶랿뗘닺룷쿮듻뿮뛮폫탂퓶뷰죚튵듻뿮뛮횮뇈25룶죋힡랿듻뿮폠뛮폫힡햬쿺쫛뛮횮뇈26힡햬볛룱쮮욽폫힡햬ퟢ뷰쮮욽횮뇈4힡햬쫐뎡폫7짌욷랿뿕훃쏦믽폫뷼죽쓪랿컝뾢릤쏦믽횮뇈랿뗘닺ퟜ쫐364뎡킭뗷럖컶8짌욷랿풤쫛쏦믽폫엺ힼ풤쫛쏦믽횮뇈29랿컝닰잨붨훾쏦믽12랿뗘닺튵쓚10랿뗘닺쿮쒿릤돌엺ힼ붨훾쏦믽폫랿컝쪩릤쏦믽횮뇈4늿룷튪쯘킭3011랿컝쪩릤쏦믽폫랿컝뾢릤쏦믽횮뇈6뗷럖컶12랿컝뾢릤쏦믽폫짌욷랿풤쿖쫛쏦믽횮뇈8뇭5-5 힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐뗄ퟜ쳥움볛ힼ퓲뗃럖햼ퟮ룟뇈훘탅뫅뺭볃몬틥뗷뿘듫쪩Vꎾ4뫬뗆쫐뎡맽죈뛔힡햬쫐뎡뷸탐뗷뿘ꎼV≤4믆뗆쫐뎡짔죈뛌웚쓚폐짔죈뫍쟷뮺뗄뿉쓜듙뷸뺭볃컈뚨퓶뎤듫쪩ꎬ믆뗆쪱ꎼV≤싌뗆쫐뎡컈뚨뿉캬돖싌뗆웚듫쪩ꎬ삶뗆쪱펦닉좡쟷컈듫쪩ꎼV≤삶뗆쫐뎡짔샤뛌웚쓚폐샤믲쟷컈뿉쓜V≤냗뗆쫐뎡맽샤닉폃폐솦듫쪩듌벤힡햬쫐뎡127
4ꎩ낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯움볛ퟛ뫏쒣쓢뷡맻뇭5-6 ퟛ뫏쒣쓢뷡맻쓪럝뗃럖뗆뫅1990삶뗆삶뗆싌뗆믆뗆싌뗆싌뗆싌뗆삶뗆싌뗆싌뗆싌뗆싌뗆싌뗆믆뗆믆뗆ꎨ1ꎩퟛ뫏쒣쓢뷡맻ퟛ뫏쒣쓢뷡맻늨뚯횵죧춼5-4쯹쪾ꎺퟛ뫏쒣쓢폫풤닢풤놨뷡맻쓪럝ꎨ쓪ꎩ뺯뛈횵샤헽뎣쿂쿞헽뎣짏쿞죈춼5-4 ퟛ뫏쒣쓢뷡맻늨뚯횵ꎨ2ꎩ늨뚯럖컶ꎺ128ퟛ뫏뺯뛈횵
뷡뫏짏쫶뚨솿ꆢ뚨탔움볛뫍ퟛ뫏쒣쓢뷡맻ꎬ뛔낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ퟛ뫏럖컶죧쿂ꎺ1990-2003쓪헢14쓪볤ꎬ믆뗆폐2룶ꎬ싌뗆폐9룶ꎬ삶뗆3룶ꆣ벴쫐뎡짔죈쓪럝캪1993쓪뫍2003쓪ꎬ쫐뎡쟷샤쓪럝캪1997쓪ꎬ훷튪쫇쫜떽헾뢮뷴쯵틸룹뗈뫪맛뗷뿘헾닟뗄펰쿬ꆣ웤폠쓪럝힡햬쫐뎡랢햹믹놾헽뎣ꆣ2004쓪힡햬쫐뎡볌탸쿲짏늨뚯ꎬ퓚2003쓪믹뒡짏폖폐쯹쳡룟ꆣ룹뻝1994ꆫ2004쓪ퟛ뫏쒣쓢횸뇪횵ꎬ2004쓪뗄ퟛ뫏쒣쓢횵룟폚320뗄싌뗆짏쿞횵ꎬ틑뷸죫믆뗆쟸폲ꎬ돊짔죈첬쫆ꆣퟛ뫏쿈탐ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽ꎨLBIꎩ뫍ퟛ뫏쒣쓢럖컶뷡맻ꎬ뿉틔뗃돶낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡퓚2004쓪돊짔죈뗄ힴ첬랢햹ꆣ129
6 뗷뿘뛔닟퇐뺿컒맺췆탐짌욷뺭볃틔살ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡퓚1993쓪뫍2004쓪뗄잿뺢룟캻늨뚯뻍틽웰쇋짧믡룷뷧죋쪿뗄룟뛈훘쫓ꎬ뗷뿘뗄뫴짹죕헇ꎬ놾늿럖룹뻝컒맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄퓋탐쳘뗣ꎬ짨솢돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄뗷뿘쒿뇪뫍풭퓲ꎬ헫뛔힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐ힴ뿶ꎬ쳡돶힡햬쫐뎡뗄뗷뿘뛔닟ꆣ 뗷뿘쒿뇪폫풭퓲죎뫎튻룶쾵춳뗄뗷뿘뚼탨튪쫗쿈쏷좷뗷뿘뗄쒿뇪폫풭퓲ꎬ놾싛컄뗄퇐뺿훐ꎬ캪놣횤돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄돖탸ꆢ붡뾵랢햹ꎬ쳡돶틔쿂뗷뿘뗄쒿뇪뫍풭퓲 뗷뿘뗄쒿뇪틔뻓힡캪훷ꎬ틔쫐쏱쿻럑캪훷ꎬ틔웕춨짌욷힡랿캪훷ꎬퟛ뫏퓋폃닆쮰ꆢ뷰죚ꆢ램싉ꆢ탐헾뗈뛠훖쫖뛎ꎬ붫힡햬쫐뎡뗄뫪맛뗷뿘폫캢맛룣믮쿠뷡뫏ꎬ맦랶춶ꎬ틖훆춶믺ꎬ얬솦쪵쿖릩쟳ퟜ솿믹놾욽뫢ꆢ뷡릹믹놾뫏샭ꆢ볛룱믹놾컈뚨ꆣ벴놣돖돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡믹놾컈뚨ꎬ얬솦쪵쿖릩쟳ퟜ솿믹놾욽뫢ꎬ짌욷힡랿볛룱뫏샭뇤뮯ꎬ뿘훆짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄뛱탔짏헇ꆣ돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗷뿘ꎬ볈튪랴펳맡뎹실쪵훐퇫뫪맛뗷뿘뗄헾닟ꎬ춬쪱ꎬ폖쳥쿖돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뗄쟸폲탔쳘뗣ꆣ듓맄샸쫐뎡뺭볃랢햹뗄뷇뛈뛸퇔ꎬ돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗷뿘뗄훘뗣쫇볌탸춨맽쫐뎡뮯쫖뛎믽벫뗘뗷뿘ꎬ얬솦쪹짌욷힡랿쫐뎡뗄랢햹폫돇헲뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫퓶럹쿠쫊펦ꎬ폫돇쫐뗄뺭볃랢햹뗄쮮욽쿠쫊펦ꆣ퓚짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗷뿘맽돌훐ꎬ뇘탫냑컕틔쿂쯄룶ퟓ쒿뇪ꎺ뗚튻ꎬ 놣횤캪돇쫐뻓쏱짺믮탨튪쳡릩쫊떱뗄죫힡뿕볤뎤웚뗄힡랿쫐뎡뗷뿘뛔닟뇘탫쫷솢ꆰ뻓헟폐웤컝ꆱꆢꆰ뻓헟폐솼컝ꆱ뗄쒿뇪ꎬ폐ퟣ릻뗄힡랿릩뻓쏱쿻럑ꆢ폐듳훚뗄뻓쏱쓜릻쿻럑ꎬ늢쓜늻뛏룄짆힡랿훊솿ꎬ룄짆뻓힡쳵볾ꆣ퓚훆뚨듫쪩뗄맽돌훐ꎬ뇘탫뛔쎿룶볒춥뗄뻓힡욫뫃ꆢ힡햬뗄닺좨ꆢ쪵컯ힴ뿶ꆢ캻훃볓틔뾼싇ꎬ펦퓊탭뎬맽탨튪쫽솿뗄힡햬쪣폠듦퓚ꎬ틲캪뿕훃힡햬ퟷ캪힡햬쫐뎡짏뗄“탮쮮돘”ꎬ뿉캪뻓쏱뇤룼힡쯹쳡릩랽뇣ꎬ캪힡햬룼탂뮻듺쳡릩믘탽뿕볤ꎬ웈쪹틑늻럻뫏뻓힡뇪ힼ뗄힡햬놻벰쪱쳔청ꎬ싺ퟣ늿럖볒춥뛔펵폐뗚뛾힡쯹뗄탨튪ꆣ뗚뛾ꎬ 폅뮯쫐뎡릩펦뷡릹130
폅뮯릩펦뷡릹ꎬ벴쫇튪쟳룟떵랿ꆢ훐뗍떵힡햬ꆢ뺭볃쫊폃랿뫍솮ퟢ컝뻟폐뫏샭뗄힡햬릩룸뇈샽ꎬ춨맽룷훖닣듎싺ퟣ뻓힡뗄쫐뎡쿻럑탨쟳ꎬ뿘훆맽뛈뗄춶탨쟳ꎬ틖훆춶믺탨쟳ꆢ볌탸폅뮯쫐뎡맦퓲ꎬ볓뿬췪짆힡랿놣헏쳥쾵ꎬ늻뛏룄짆쫐쏱[73]뗄뻓힡쳵볾뫍뻓힡훊솿ꆣ랢햹힡햬쫐뎡뗄룹놾쒿뗄쫇캪쇋룄짆쫐쏱뗄뻓힡짺믮ꎬ쪹맣듳쫐쏱춨맽쫐뎡쓜릻뷢뻶ퟔ벺뗄힡랿컊쳢ꆣ틲듋ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뗄뚨캻뻍쫇붨솢튻룶쏦쿲듳훚뗄쫐뎡ꎬ쳡릩폫맣듳샏냙탕횧뢶쓜솦쿠욥엤뗄힡랿닺욷ꆣ퓚짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄룟캻쪱웚ꎬ닉좡폅쿈실쪵짌욷힡햬폃뗘볆뮮ꆢ쫐헾엤쳗뗈듫쪩ꎬ틽떼뫍맄샸뾪랢짌붨퓬룼뛠뗄훐뗍볛웕춨짌욷힡랿ꎬ죃돇쫐뻓쏱쟐쪵룐뻵떽쫐뎡뷡릹폅뮯쯹듸살뗄쪵믝ꆣ퓚릩펦랽쪽짏ꎬ퇐뺿틔쳝뛈볛룱쿲뚯잨볒춥릩펦낲훃랿풴ꎬ뫋탄쫇틔돉놾볓캢샻뗄냬램좷뚨볛룱ꆣ뗚죽ꎬ 틽떼뫏샭뗄힡랿쿻럑힡햬뻟폐춶ꆢ쿻럑솽훘탔ꎬ떫힡랿뗄훷튪릦쓜쫇뻓힡ꎬ늻쫇쇷춨ꆣ막욱쫇춶붻틗ꎬ뛸돇쫐힡랿퓲훷튪싺ퟣ놾쫐뻓쏱뗄뻓힡탨쟳ꆣ퓚돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡탨쟳돖탸췺쪢쪱ꎬ탨튪퇐뺿듫쪩ꎬ냑뗷뿘뗄훘뗣평쫐뎡릩펦쿲쫐뎡탨쟳ꆣ튻냣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗄릩펦뻟폐훍뫳탔ꎬ탨쟳뻟폐쏴룐탔ꎬ뗷뿘탨쟳뻟폐쿠떱쓑뛈ꆣ퓚탅듻헾닟짏ꎬ튪퇐뺿죧뫎폅뮯힡햬탅듻뷡릹ꎬ뗷헻힡랿쿻럑뗄훐뎤웚듻뿮뫍뛌웚듻뿮뗄뇈샽ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ뛔폚릺싲뛠쳗짌욷힡랿뗄탐캪ꎬ닉좡쫊떱쳡룟쫗뢶돉쫽뫍듻뿮샻싊뗄냬램ꆣ퓚닆쮰헾닟짏ꎬ닉좡폐킧뗄냬램뫍듫쪩ꎬ틖훆뛔듦솿힡랿ꎬ쳘뇰쫇뛔듎탂랿뗄뛌웚뎴ퟷ탐캪ꆣ뗚쯄ꎬ 캪돇쫐뛠닣듎뻓쏱쳡릩힡랿놣헏퓚돇쫐힡햬붨짨훐ꎬ쒳킩볒춥ꎬ죧샏쓪죋ꆢ닐벲죋뫍뗍쫕죫볒춥뗈ꎬ뛔힡랿폐쳘쫢뗄튪쟳ꎬ헾뢮뇘탫폐폫횮쿠맘뗄헾닟ꎬ듓짌욷힡햬쫐뎡쿠맘뗄쟾뗀ꎬ엤쳗쿠맘헾닟ꎬ뛔힡햬붨짨ꆢ럖엤뫍쪹폃뗈랽쏦ퟷ돶쳘쫢뗄낲업ꎬ틔싺ퟣ쳘쫢좺쳥힡랿탨튪ꆣ랢햹폫뗷뿘ꎬ쫇힡햬닺튵폀뫣뗄뮰쳢ꆣ쫐뎡뗷뿘뗄쒿뗄쫇캪쇋돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡룼맦랶뗄랢햹ꎬ냑돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹쳡룟떽튻룶탂뗄쮮욽ꎬ듙뷸돇쫐랢햹ꆢ뺭볃퓶뎤뫍맣듳좺훚힡랿쳵볾뗄늻뛏룄짆ꆣ 뗷뿘뗄풭퓲1ꎩ쳥쿖룷돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쳘헷돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뻟폐잿쇒뗄뗘폲탔ꆣ돇쫐늻춬ꎬ웤힡햬쫐뎡뺭볃랢폽돌뛈ꆢ돇쫐뮯쮮욽ꆢ닺튵뷡릹ꆢ췁뗘샻폃ힴ뿶ꆢ쫕죫쮮욽뗈뗈잧닮췲뇰ꆣ죧맻쫇좫맺탔뗄돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뒦폚룟캻ꎬ퓲탨쪵쪩좫쏦뗄붵컂듫쪩ꎻ죧맻쫇룶뇰돇쫐힡햬쫐131
뎡늨뚯뒦폚룟캻ꎬ퓲횻쓜퓚룶뇰돇쫐뷸탐뻟쳥럖컶ꎬ쿠믺뛸뚯ꆣ평폚힡햬뗄룶뇰탔뫍만뚨탔ꎬ룶뇰돇쫐뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯췹췹룷뻟쳘즫ꆣ1992ꆢ1993쓪뗄힡햬쫐뎡뗄틬뎣늨뚯ꎬ훷튪돶쿖퓚훩붭죽뷇훞ꆢ몣쓏몣뿚ꆢ맣컷놱몣뗈뗘ꎬ헾뢮뗄뗷뿘훘뗣퓲틔헢킩뗘쟸캪훷ꆣ20쫀볍뻅쪮쓪듺뫳웚ꎬ탭뛠돇쫐뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뷏캪쿴쳵ꎬ늨뚯뒦폚뗍캻ꎬ룷돇쫐폖탨톰쟳듫쪩듙뷸짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄뿬쯙랢햹ꆣ2004쓪훁2005쓪짏냫쓪ꎬ좫맺짌욷힡햬쓪뻹볛룱뇈좥쓪춬웚폐뷏듳럹뛈퓶뎤ꆣ2005쓪튻벾뛈ꎬ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛볛룱뇈좥쓪춬벾짏헇%ꆣ웤훐ꎬ뺭볃쫊폃랿ꆢ웕춨힡햬뫍룟떵힡햬쿺쫛볛룱뇈좥쓪춬벾럖뇰짏헇%ꆢ%뫍%ꆣ퓚35룶듳훐돇쫐[74]훐ꎬ짌욷힡햬쿺쫛볛룱춬뇈헇럹뎬맽10%뗄돇쫐폐8룶ꎺ짏몣%ꎬ쿃쏅%ꎬ돉뚼%ꎬ쟠떺%ꎬ몼훝%ꎬ볃쓏%ꎬ쓾늨%ꎬ쓏뺩%ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ룷돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯뺿뺹쓄킩쫴폚헽뎣ힴ첬ꎬ쓄킩돇쫐쫴폚럇늻헽뎣늨뚯ꎬ쫇럱펦룃볓틔뗷뿘ꎬ뇘탫뾼싇룷돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄뻟쳥늨뚯ힴ첬ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ컒맺돇쫐랿뗘닺쫐뎡퓋탐맽돌훐ꎬ짌욷힡햬폫짌튵ꆢ릤튵폃랿뗄쳘탔늻춬ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡폫웤쯼쫐뎡맜샭뗄헾닟튲늻뺡쿠춬ꎬ듓뛸튲뻶뚨쇋힡햬쫐뎡뗷뿘쳥쾵펦돤럖뾼싇돇쫐힡햬랢햹뫍늨뚯뗄쳘뗣ꆣ2ꎩ놣돖돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡컈뚨ꆢ돖탸랢햹힡햬튵짦벰뗄탐튵맣ꆢ맘솪뛈룟ꎬ듸뚯탔잿ꆣ듙뷸힡햬쫐뎡돖탸붡뾵랢햹ꎬ쫇쳡룟뻓쏱힡랿쮮욽ꎬ룄짆뻓힡훊솿ꎬ싺ퟣ죋쏱좺훚컯훊컄뮯짺믮탨튪뗄믹놾튪쟳ꎻ쫇듙뷸쿻럑ꎬ삩듳쓚탨ꎬ삭뚯춶퓶뎤ꎬ놣돖맺쏱뺭볃돖탸뿬쯙붡뾵랢햹뗄폐솦듫쪩ꎻ쫇돤럖랢믓죋솦풴폅쫆ꎬ삩듳짧믡뻍튵뗄폐킧춾뺶ꆣ틲듋ꎬ돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗷뿘뛔닟펦싺ퟣ돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡컈뚨ꆢ돖탸ꆢ붡뾵랢햹뗄튪쟳ꆣ3ꎩ돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯펦폫웤췢짺뇤솿뗄뇤뮯쿠킭뗷돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯쫜돇쫐맺쏱뺭볃ꆢ뷰죚ꆢ춶뗈췢짺뇤솿뗄펰쿬뷏듳ꎬ죧맻돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹폫웤짧믡뺭볃랢햹쿠킭뗷ꎬ퓲돇쫐힡햬튵뗄랢햹뻍믡뒦폚튻훖솼뫃뗄쾵춳뮷뺳횮훐ꎬ럱퓲ꎬ펦뺯쳨돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡럇뎣첬늨뚯뗄돶쿖뫍뛱뮯ꎬ럀횹평듋떼훂뗄돇쫐뷰죚쫐뎡뫍돇쫐뺭볃쳥쾵뗄뇀삣ꆣ4ꎩ힡햬쫐뎡뇤솿횮볤쿠킭뗷힡햬쫐뎡뗄붻틗솿ꆢ싲싴볛룱ꆢퟢ쇞볛룱뗈떥횸뇪쫇뿌뮭힡햬쫐뎡뗄훘튪횸뇪ꆣ뛸웤훐힡햬퓶솿쫐뎡폫듦솿랿쫐뎡횮볤뗄킭뗷맘쾵뻶뚨쇋짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄샭탔ힴ뿶ꎬ랴펳쇋힡햬쫐뎡쫇럱뒦폚튻훖헽뎣뗄랢햹ힴ첬ꆣ5ꎩ힡햬뾪랢ꆢ쇷춨뗈룷뮷뷚튪쯘횮볤뫏샭랢햹힡햬쫐뎡뗄헽뎣랢햹돽쇋펦폫뫪맛뺭볃뗄랢햹뫍쫐뎡쓚퓚튪쯘뗄뇤뮯랢햹쿠킭뗷틔췢ꎬ뮹튪놣횤힡햬듓놨붨ꆢ닰잨ꆢ쪩릤ꆢ뾢릤뫍쿺쫛룷뮷뷚횮볤뗄엤쳗랢햹ꆣ듋뮷뷚솴짏뗄죎뫎튻룶뗄놡죵뚼믡쿱ꆰ쮮춰킧펦ꆱ튻퇹펰쿬힡햬쫐뎡뗄헽뎣132
랢햹ꆣ퓚쏷좷뗷뿘뗄쒿뇪폫풭퓲뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ붨솢폐킧뗄뫪맛뗷뿘쳥쾵ꎬ듓힡햬짺닺ꆢ쇷춨ꆢ쿻럑뗄뷇뛈ꎻ듓돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄풭틲뫍뷡맻뗄뷇뛈ꎻ듓랿뗘닺붻틗ꆢ쮰럑ꆢ볛룱ꆢ췁뗘ꆢ볆뮮ꆢ뷰죚ꆢ뾪랢맜샭벰솮ퟢ랿ꆢ뺭볃쫊폃랿맜샭뗈뷇뛈ꎬ럖컶돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡쳥쾵훐뗄뿉뿘뇤솿ꎬ첽쳖뿉뿘뇤솿폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯횮볤뗄맘쾵ꎬ펦폃뗚컥늿럖쳡돶뗄럖컶쒣탍뫍랽램ꎬ헫뛔돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹뇤뮯ꎬ쒣쓢헾닟뗷뿘듫쪩뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ뿶뗄펰쿬ꎬ놾ퟅ쪵폃ꆢ뿉닙ퟷ탔ꆢ폅뮯ꆢ램싉퓊탭뗄풭퓲ꎬ좷뚨돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗷뿘듫쪩ꆣ 폐킧뗄뫪맛뗷뿘쳥쾵뷸탐폐킧뗄뫪맛뗷뿘뻍쫇틔뺭볃뗄ꆢ램싉뗄ꆢ탐헾뗄늢뢨횮뷌폽믲폟싛떼쿲뗄쫖뛎ꎬ퓚ퟱ톭힡랿쫐뎡ퟔ짭퓋탐뗄뿍맛맦싉잰쳡쿂ꎬ뛔헻룶힡랿쫐뎡뗄탨쟳뫍릩룸뗄ퟜ솿폫뷡릹뷸탐뗷뷚ꆢ뿘훆ꆢ틽떼뫍맜샭ꆣ뗷뿘뗄쫖뛎냼삨닆쮰헾닟ꆢ췁뗘헾닟ꆢ뷰죚믵뇒헾닟ꆢ쫕죫럖엤헾닟ꆢ닺튵헾닟ꆢ쟸폲헾닟ꆢ램싉쫖뛎ꆢ랿뗘닺탐헾쫖뛎ꆢ헾뢮뗄뺭볃볠뚽틔벰탅쾢춸쏷뮯뗈쫖뛎ꆣ닆쮰헾닟냼삨펯폠헾닟ꆢ돠ퟖ헾닟ꆢ쫕횧욽뫢헾닟ꎬ틔벰쮰쫕ꆢ만뚨닺춶ꆢ닆헾늹쳹ꆢ햮컱랽쏦뗄헾닟뫍룼캪쾸훂뗄맘폚복쏢쮰ꆢ헛뻉ꆢ쳹쾢뗈쿮헾닟ꆣ퓚힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뗷뿘훐ꎬ쮰쫕ꆢ늹쳹ꆢ헛뻉뗈뗈뚼쫇뎣폃뗄닆쮰쫖뛎ꆣ뷰죚믵뇒헾닟뗄훷튪횸뇪쫇샻싊ꆢ듻뿮뛮ꆢ듻뿮웚쿞ꆢ믵뇒릩펦솿뫍뎬뛮뒢놸ꆣ틸탐쪵쿖믵뇒헾닟뗄쫖뛎훷튪쫇램뚨ힼ놸뷰싊ꆢ퓙쳹쿖싊뫍릫뾪쫐뎡튵컱ꆣ훐퇫틸탐쪵쪩뗄믵뇒헾닟뛔힡햬쫐뎡폐ퟅ벫웤훘튪뗄펰쿬ꆣ쫕죫럖엤헾닟쫇헾뢮룹뻝볈뚨뗄쒿뇪뛸맦뚨뗄룶죋쫕죫ퟜ솿벰웤뷡릹뗄뇤뚯랽쿲ꎬ틔벰헾뢮뗷뷚쫕죫럖엤뗄믹놾랽헫뫍풭퓲ꆣ힡랿훆뛈룄룯훐뗄릫믽뷰ꆢ힡랿늹쳹ꆢ힡랿럖엤믵뇒뮯헾닟쫇뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡펰쿬볓듳뗄쫕죫럖엤헾닟ꎬ헢킩헾닟쫖뛎퓶볓쇋뻓쏱뗄힡랿쿻럑쓜솦ꎬ폐솦뗘췆뚯쇋힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹ꆣ닺튵헾닟쫇맺볒맦뮮ꆢ룉풤뫍폕떼닺튵탎돉뫍랢햹뗄튻훖헾닟ꎬ냼삨닺튵뷡릹헾닟ꆢ닺튵ퟩ횯헾닟뗈ꆣ 뺭볃뗷뿘쫖뛎헾뢮욾뷨맺볒헾좨ꎬ춨맽뛔쮰싊ꆢ쮰훖뷸탐뗷뷚ꎬ뷸뛸펰쿬힡랿닺튵뗄룷훖뺭볃믮뚯ꎻ춨맽탅듻쿞훆벰샻싊뗷헻ꎬ뿘훆뷰춶럅뗄쫽솿뫍뷡릹ꎬ살뗷뷚힡랿맦쒣뫍뷡릹;춨맽붨솢뫍췪짆힡햬쫐뎡볛룱짪놨훆뛈ꆢ볛룱움맀훆뛈틔벰돇헲믹ힼ뗘볛뫍뇪뚨뗘볛릫쪾훆뛈ꎬ살뛔힡랿볛룱뷸탐폐킧뿘훆ꎬ붵뗍힡랿볛룱ꆣ133
램싉뗷뿘쫖뛎쫐뎡뺭볃퓚튻뚨틢틥짏붲쫇램훆뺭볃ꎬ틲듋ꎬ춨맽붨솢붡좫뗄힡랿램싉훆뛈뫍쿠맘램맦ꎬ뛔컒맺힡랿쫐뎡뷸탐잿훆탔맦랶ꎬ쪹웤ퟟ쿲램훆뮯맬뗀ꆣ죧춨맽뇠훆돇헲맦뮮살뛔힡랿뗄폃뗘쏦믽ꆢ캻훃ꆢ붨훾샠탍ꆢ죝믽싊ꆢ붨훾룟뛈ꆢ힡쟸죋뿚쏜뛈ꆢ싌뗘싊틔벰릫릲짨쪩엤쳗뗈뷸탐뗷뿘ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ펦ꆰ폐램뇘틀ꎬ횴램뇘퇏ꆱꎬ뛅뻸캥램뇤룼맦뮮뗄탐캪믲쯦틢뇤룼맦뮮뗄탐캪랢짺ꆣ 탐헾뗷뿘쫖뛎훷튪쫇틔훆뚨볆뮮뛔힡랿쫐뎡뷸탐맜샭폫횸떼ꆣ죧춨맽훆뚨힡랿튵랢햹햽싔쒿뇪ꎬ살쏷좷힡랿닺튵랢햹랽쿲ꎻ춨맽훆뚨쓪뛈붨짨폃뗘볆뮮ꎬ살뛔힡랿폃뗘뗄릩룸쫽솿ꆢ뷡릹ꆢ뿕볤늼뻖뷸탐뗷뿘ꎻ춨맽훆뚨쓪뛈탅듻춶럅볆뮮ꎬ살좷뚨힡랿뷰춶럅솿뫍뷡릹ꎬ좷뚨힡랿붨짨훘뗣뫍쿞훆샠탍뗈ꆣ1ꎩ붨솢짌욷힡햬짧믡돉놾볠짳훆뛈ꎬ볓잿뛔힡햬뾪랢돉놾뗄엻슶룷벶볛룱늿쏅튪죏헦퇐뺿짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄짧믡풼쫸믺훆ꎬ폐훘뗣뗘뾪햹뛔짌욷힡햬짧믡욽뻹돉놾뗄볠짳ꎬ뚨웚닢쯣돇쫐럖뗘쟸ꆢ럖뷡릹ꆢ럖떵듎뗄짌욷힡햬짧믡욽뻹돉놾ꎬ볓잿뛔췁뗘좡뗃럑폃ꆢ잰웚릤돌럑폃ꆢ붨낲돉놾ꆢ릫릲엤쳗짨쪩럑ꆢ릫릲믹뒡짨쪩럑ꆢ쿺쫛쮰럑ꆢ맜샭럑폃ꆢ닆컱럑폃ꆢ듺뷉뗄탐헾쫂튵탔쫕럑뗄볠짳ꎬ늢퓚죏헦짳뫋뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ쿲짧믡릫늼돇쫐룷돇쟸ꆢ룷떵듎짌욷힡햬뗄짧믡욽뻹돉놾ꎬ틔쳡룟맣듳쿻럑헟뛔랿볛릹돉뗄죏쪶ꎬ퓶잿짧믡폟싛뛔힡햬뾪랢웳튵뺭펪탐캪뗄볠뚽ꎬ첽쯷붨솢평짧믡폟싛볠뚽ꆢ쿻럑헟닎폫ꆢ웳튵ퟔ싉뗄짌욷힡햬볛룱풼쫸믺훆뫍놩샻뿘훆믺훆ꆣ췁뗘좡뗃럑폃틔췁뗘쪵볊돶죃볛룱캪틀뻝ꎬ잰웚릤돌럑폃틔럖뗘쟸욽뻹쮮욽캪틀뻝ꎬ붨낲돉놾ꆢ릫릲엤쳗짨쪩럑ꆢ릫릲믹뒡짨쪩럑틔짧믡튻냣붨퓬ꆢ엤훃뇪ힼ캪헆컕풭퓲ꎬ듺뷉뗄탐헾쫂튵탔쫕럑틔헾뢮쿠맘늿쏅훆뚨뗄뇪ힼ캪틀뻝ꆣ짌욷힡햬짧믡돉놾릫늼쪱쿞튻냣냫쓪튻듎ꎬ랿볛짏헇맽뿬믲돉놾뇤뮯맽뿬뗘쟸뿉쎿벾뛈릫늼튻듎ꆣ2ꎩ맦랶힡햬볛룱움맀뷡맻뗄짳뫋ꎬ좡쿻탐헾믺릹뛔움맀뷡맻뗄룉풤돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ꎬ볈폐뿉쓜쫇쫐뎡훷쳥쿠뮥ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꎬ튲폐뿉쓜쫇쫐뎡닎폫헟뫍맜샭헟뗄늻뫏샭탐캪떼훂뗄뷡맻ꆣ룷돇쫐뗄랿뗘닺붻틗맜샭믺릹쫇룷돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄맜샭헟ꎬ쯼뗄탐캪뛔쫐뎡늨뚯폐뷏듳뗄펰쿬ꆣ죧떱폐킩쫐뎡맜샭헟죏캪힡햬볛룱움맀횵맽뗍ꎬ늻폨쫕볾ꎬ떼훂돇쫐힡햬움맀볛룱훰늽짏퇯ꎬ춬쪱쿲쫐뎡랢돶쇋훷맛탅뫅ꎬ룄뇤쇋죋쏇뗄풤웚ꎬ듙쪹돇쫐짌욷힡햬볛룱뗄맽뿬퓶뎤ꆣ헾뢮쿠맘늿쏅믲웤엉짺믺릹뛔랿뗘닺움맀뗄맜샭쫇뛔듓쫂랿뗘닺ꎨ췁뗘ꎩ134
맀볛튵컱뗄랿뗘닺볛룱움맀믺릹벰랿뗘닺맀볛죋풱뗄맜샭ꎬ뛸늻쫇움에힡햬볛룱움맀횵뗄뫏샭폫럱ꎬ헢튻쿮릤ퟷ펦평랿뗘닺맀볛믺릹춨맽쓚늿짳뫋믲쿠펦뗄볒캯풱믡돐떣ꆣ3ꎩ볓잿짌욷힡햬췸짏붻틗놸낸쾵춳붨짨ꎬ쳡룟쫐뎡탅쾢춸쏷뛈폫ힼ좷탔룷돇쫐튪뷸튻늽췪짆뫍퓋탐짌욷힡햬췸짏붻틗놸낸쾵춳ꎬ쏷좷튪쟳뾪랢웳튵뚨웚놨쯍짌욷힡햬붻틗슥엌탅쾢ꎬ뾪랢웳튵펦퓚짌욷힡햬쿺쫛맽돌훐ꎬ뚨웚럖엺붫쿺쫛쫽솿폫볛룱뗈놨돇쫐쿠맘늿쏅놸낸ꆣ춨맽붨솢슥엌뇭ꎬ벰쪱짳닩ꆢ믣ퟜ짌욷힡햬붻틗쇏ꎬ벴쪱쿲짧믡릫늼돇쫐룷쟸폲짌욷힡햬붻틗쟩뿶ꎬ벰쪱릫늼쪵볊돉붻볛룱ꎬ벰쪱랢늼췁뗘뫍랿닺쫐뎡볛룱볠닢탅쾢ꎬ냯훺춶헟뫍쿻럑헟냑컕짌욷힡햬쫐뎡탐쟩뫍볛룱뇤뮯쟷쫆ꎬ쳡룟힡햬쫐뎡춸쏷뛈ꎬ틽떼쿻럑헟샭탔릺랿ꎬ틽떼춶헟뫏샭뾪랢ꎬ복짙틲탅쾢늻뛔돆뛸떼훂뗄짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄틬뎣늨뚯ꆣ4ꎩ볓잿뛔힡햬쫐뎡훐룷훖늻뗀뗂탐캪뗄퇐뺿ꎬ훆뚨폐헫뛔탔뗄럀랶듫쪩힡햬쿲짏틬뎣늨뚯뗄돇쫐ꎬ췹췹춶믺탨쟳뫍춶탨쟳솿듳ꎬ룷훖뫥첧랿볛ꆢ솪쫖슢뛏랿볛뗈웛햩탐캪뇈뷏퇏훘ꎬ헢킩탐캪뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄틬뎣늨뚯췆늨훺삽ꆣ룷벶볛룱늿쏅뫍힡햬폫랿뗘닺맜샭늿쏅튪퇏룱틀뻝ꆶ볛룱램ꆷ뗈폐맘맦뚨ꎬ볓뷴뛔힡햬쫐뎡훐룷훖볛룱웛햩 ꆢ쒲좡놩샻 ꆢ웚랿뎴ퟷ뗈탐캪뗄퇐뺿ꆣ뛔뛠볒힡햬뾪랢웳튵퓚튻뚨쟸폲쓚솪쫖뿘훆힡햬볛룱뗄탐캪ꎬ뛔힡햬뾪랢웳튵ꆢ훐뷩믺릹뗈춨맽훆퓬탩볙탅쾢ꆢ뫥첧랿볛뗄탐캪ꆢ뛔캥랴램싉램맦뎴ퟷ랿볛쳘뇰쫇웚랿볛룱뗄탐캪ꎬ튪퓚돤럖뗷퇐ꆢ헆컕횤뻝뗄믹뒡짏볡뻶뷸탐닩뒦ꎬ늢춨맽탂컅쎽뷩릫뾪웘맢튻킩뗤탍낸샽ꎬ틔랢믓헰짥폫뺯쪾ퟷ폃ꆣ5ꎩ붨솢뫍췪짆힡햬웳튵돏탅뾼움훆뛈ꎬ듙뷸힡햬쫐뎡맦랶폐탲랢햹뛔힡햬뾪랢웳튵훊돏탅ꆢ힡햬쿮쒿뾪랢돏탅ꆢ쿺쫛뺭펪돏탅ꆢ쫛뫳럾컱돏탅뗈랽쏦뷸탐움맀ꎬ늢릫늼움맀뷡맻ꆣ춨맽뾼뫋움뇈쫷솢돏탅뗤탍ꎬ듙뷸힡햬쫐뎡탎돉웳튵ퟔ싉ꆢ볛룱돏탅뗄럕캧ꆣ6ꎩ웴랢뫍폟싛떼쿲쫖뛎샻폃폫힡햬퓙짺닺폐맘뗄짧믡췅쳥ퟩ횯ꆢ췸햾쎽쳥ꆢ뗧쫓ꆢ놨횽ꆢ퓓횾ꆢ믡틩뗈뛠훖춾뺶ꎬ뒫뗝헦쪵탅쾢ꎬ뷨훺짧믡폟싛ꆢ헾닟탻뒫ꆢ쮵럾뷌폽뗈랽쪽뛔힡랿쫐뎡훷쳥탐캪닺짺펰쿬ꎬ틽떼웤탎돉샭탔뗄힡햬쫐뎡풤웚ꎬ듓뛸펰쿬힡랿쫐뎡뗄릩룸뫍탨쟳ꎬ듯떽뗷뷚짌욷힡랿쫐뎡뗄쒿뗄ꆣ 뗷뿘듫쪩돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄랽쿲뫍럹뛈늻춬ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뗷뿘뗄듫쪩튲룷틬ꆣ떱135
쫐뎡늨뚯뗄캻쫆뷏뗍쪱ꎬ펦쪵쪩믽벫ꆢ뿭쯉뗄쫐뎡뗷뷚듫쪩죧붵뗍힡햬듻뿮샻싊ꆢ퓶볓믵뇒솿ꆢ복짙힡햬붻틗쮰럑ꆢ퓶볓힡햬늹쳹ꆢ복짙힡햬쫐뎡붻틗맜훆뗈뗈ꆣ떱쫐뎡늨뚯뗄캻쫆뷏룟쪱ꎬ펦쪵쪩뷴쯵뗄뗷뿘듫쪩ꎬ죧쳡룟힡햬듻뿮샻싊ꆢ복짙믵뇒릩펦솿ꆢ퓶볓붻틗쮰뢺ꆢ볓잿힡햬쫐뎡붻틗맜훆뗈뗈ꆣ뛸쟒퓚힡랿쫐뎡훐ꎬ쿻럑헟쿠뛔뛸퇔뒦폚탅쾢좱랦뗄튻랽ꎬ춬쪱폖좱랦쿠맘뗄튵횪쪶ꎬ퓚쫐뎡늩?맽돌훐뒦폚늻샻뗘캻ꆣ힡랿붻틗훐뗄웛욭탐캪뷶뷶틀뾿탅쾢믱좡랽쏦뗄죭풼쫸쫇풶풶늻릻뗄ꎬ퇏룱횴탐뗄램싉훆뛈랽쏦뗄펲풼쫸늻뿉좱짙ꎬ틲듋ꎬ췪짆돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄뗷뿘듫쪩뫍램맦쫇쫐뎡헽뎣퓋탐뗄훘튪놣헏ꆣ퓚룷쿮듫쪩훐틔쿂벸쿮폈캪훘튪ꎺ1ꎩ맦랶힡햬폃뗘쫐뎡ꎬ폅뮯힡햬폃뗘릩룸볆뮮힡햬훐뗄튻룶훘튪뗄릹돉틲ퟓ뻍쫇췁뗘ꎬ쯼뗄볛횵솿튻냣햼떽힡햬ퟜ볛횵솿뗄죽럖횮튻틔짏ꎬ늢쟒힡햬폃뗘쫇힡랿뾪랢뗄뇘튪쳵볾ꎬ쫇틽떼힡랿뾪랢춶랽쿲ꆢ듙뷸짌욷랿릩쟳욽뫢ꆢ폐킧뇜쏢뗘볛ꆢ랿볛엝쒭뗄믹뒡틲쯘ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄뗷뿘샫늻뾪뛔힡햬폃뗘쫐뎡뗄뗷뿘ꆣ힡햬폃뗘뗄뗷뿘폐솽훖탎쪽ꎬ튻훖쫇춨맽쫐뎡퓋탐뗄랽쪽ퟔ랢뗷헻췁뗘뗄엤훃ꎻ쇭튻훖쫇춨맽뫪맛뗄폃뗘볆뮮횸떼ꆣ돤럖퓋폃쫐뎡믺훆뗷뿘힡햬폃뗘쫐뎡ꎬ뻍탨튪늻뛏짮뮯힡햬폃뗘쪹폃훆뛈룄7룯ꎬ쟐쪵실쪵ꆰ쯹폐뺭펪탔뗄힡햬폃뗘튻싉뚼튪릫뾪뺺볛돶죃ꆱꎬ믽벫췆뷸맺폐힡햬폃뗘쪹폃좨헐뇪ꆢ엄싴ꎬ뷸튻늽맦랶힡햬폃뗘헐뇪ꆢ엄싴탐캪ꎬ놣뮤폐쿞뗄힡햬폃뗘풴ꎬ뫏샭샻폃힡햬폃뗘ꎬ쳡룟풴엤훃킧싊ꆣ쫐뎡뮯뗄힡햬폃뗘엤훃믺훆늢늻틢캶ퟅ늻튪볆뮮횸떼ꎬ힡햬폃뗘ퟷ캪훘튪뗄짺닺튪쯘ꎬ쯼뗄릩펦볆뮮춬뷰볆뮮ꆢ샍뚯솦볆뮮튻퇹ꎬ튲쫇뫪맛볆뮮횸떼뗄훘튪쓚죝횮튻ꆣ늻뷶죧듋ꎬ쯼뛔힡햬쫐뎡뻟폐룼캪횱뷓ꆢ쏷쿔뗄뗷뿘릦쓜ꎬ웤풭틲폐뛾ꎺ튻쫇힡햬뾪랢ퟜ쫇냩쯦ퟅ뛔힡햬폃뗘뗄횱뷓탨쟳ꎬ헾뢮릩펦힡햬폃뗘뗄쫽솿뫍훊솿컞틉뿉틔횱뷓뿘훆힡햬뾪랢뗄맦쒣뫍뷡릹ꆣ뛾쫇듓쫐뎡퓋탐뷇뛈살뾴ꎬ릩쟳맘쾵쫇뻶뚨쫐뎡ힴ뿶뗄룹놾풭틲ꎬ컒맺헾뢮ퟷ캪맺폐힡햬폃뗘쯹폐헟ꎬ뛔힡햬폃뗘돶죃쫐뎡쪵탐슢뛏뺭펪ꎬ헾뢮쓜춨맽훆뚨뫍뗷헻쓪뛈힡햬폃뗘릩펦볆뮮살뗷뿘돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹ꆣ쯤좻힡햬폃뗘뗄볆뮮횸떼쫇탐헾쫖뛎ꎬ떫쯼뇘탫럻뫏뺭펪맦싉훐뗄릩쟳맘쾵ꆣ컒맺쿣룛쳘뇰탐헾쟸헾뢮샻폃힡햬폃뗘릩펦볆뮮뗷뿘힡햬쫐뎡뗄돉릦뺭퇩횮튻뻍쫇틀뻝쫐뎡ힴ뿶훆뚨폃뗘볆뮮ꆣ퓚쫐뎡뒦폚뗍뎱쪱ꎬ엺뗘볆뮮쫽솿튲쿠펦복짙ꎬ퓚쫐뎡룟헇쪱ꎬ엺뗘볆뮮쫽솿퓲쏷쿔뗄퓶볓ꆣ퓚쪵쪩훐ꎬ웤쎿쓪쪵볊엺뗘뗄쫽솿 7 2004쓪3퓂ꎬ맺췁풴늿ꆢ볠달늿솪뫏쿂랢뗄“맘폚볌탸뾪햹뺭펪탔힡햬폃뗘쪹폃좨헐뇪엄싴맒없돶죃쟩뿶횴램볠달릤ퟷ뗄춨횪”ꎨ벴“71뫅쇮”ꎩꆣ136
뫍볆뮮엺뗘뗄쫽솿닮틬뫜킡ꎬ쟒믹놾짏뚼뿘훆퓚볆뮮쫽ퟖ횮쓚ꆣ뿆톧뗄볆뮮횸떼폐샻폚쫐뎡뗄랢햹ꎬ뇜쏢힡햬뾪랢짌뛔힡햬폃뗘탨쟳짏뗄쎤쒿탔ꆣ튻룶뿆톧뗄돇쫐힡햬폃뗘뾪랢뫍릩펦볆뮮ꎬ튻냣평돇쫐힡햬폃뗘맜샭늿쏅뫍맦뮮맜샭늿쏅퓚돤럖뗄힡햬탨쟳럖컶뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ듓짧믡뺭볃랢햹돶랢ꎬ돤럖뾼싇맺볒닺튵헾닟ꎬ내돇쫐ퟜ쳥랢햹튪쟳ꆢ힡햬폃뗘뾪랢잱솦틔벰돇쫐맦뮮뗄튪쟳훆뚨ꆣ웤쒿뗄퓚폚볓잿헾뢮뛔힡햬폃뗘샻폃뗄뫪맛뗷뿘뫍횸떼ꎬ쪹폐쿞뗄힡햬폃뗘풴퓚뾪랢샻폃훐ꎬ쓜릻뗃떽ퟛ뫏욽뫢ꆢ춳돯낲업ꎬ좷놣힡햬폃뗘풴뗄폅뮯엤훃벰뫏샭쪹폃ꆣ뿆톧뗄돇쫐힡햬폃뗘릩펦볆뮮뻟폐ퟣ릻뗄떯탔ꎬ쓜릻뛔쫐뎡ퟷ돶쇩쏴뗄랴펦ꆣ늢쟒뻟폐릫뾪춸쏷탔ꎬ뇜쏢쎤쒿뺺헹ꆣ볆뮮뗄쓚죝냼삨ꎺ쓪뛈힡햬폃뗘뾪랢쏦믽ꆢ뗘뗣ꎬ탞붨뗄쫐헾릤돌벰쯹탨뺭럑ꎬ돶죃힡햬폃뗘뗄쏦믽ꆢ뗘뗣ꎬ짏룇룟떵랿ꆢ뇰쫻ꆢ짌욷힡햬ꆢ뺭볃쫊폃랿뫍솮ퟢ컝뗄붨훾쏦믽벰쯹탨뗄붨퓬럑폃ꎬ풤볆뗄뗘볛뿮쫕죫ꆣ2ꎩ힡햬뫏샭늼뻖ꎬ돇쫐맦뮮쪵쪩뿘훆돇쫐맦뮮틔뫏샭샻폃췁뗘ꆢ킭뗷돇쫐컯훊뿕볤늼뻖ꆢ횸떼돇쫐붡뾵폐탲랢햹캪훷튪죎컱ꎬ뛔힡햬폃뗘뗄뾪랢ꆢ샻폃뫍놣뮤웰횸떼뫍뿘훆ퟷ폃ꆣ돇쫐맦뮮뻟폐뎬잰탔ꆢ뿆톧탔ꆢ뚯첬탔뫍쫊폃탔ꆣ풽쿪쾸뗄맦뮮짨볆ꎬ풽뻟쳥뗄맦뮮횸뇪ꎬ뛔췁뗘뗄샻폃잿뛈뗄풼쫸풽잿ꆣ캪볦맋헾뢮뿘훆뗄퇏쯠탔폫쫐뎡뇤뮯뗄쇩믮탔ꎬ컒맺늿럖돇쫐죧짮?쳘쟸틑뾪쪼뷸탐돇쫐맦뮮춼퓲쳥쾵뗄룄룯ꎬ붫맦뮮럖캪랢햹닟싔ꆢ듎쟸폲랢햹룙튪ꆢ램뚨춼퓲ꆢ랢햹듳룙춼뫍쿪쾸삶춼뗈컥룶닣듎ꎬ룟닣듎뗄맦뮮쓜횸떼힡햬폃뗘뗄뾪랢뫍릩펦ꎬ뗍닣듎뗄쾸늿맦뮮쓜캪힡햬폃뗘돶죃맽돌훐좷뚨맦뮮튪뗣쳡릩틀뻝ꆣ헾뢮릩펦췁뗘뗄맽돌쫇뻟쳥쪵쪩맺쏱뺭볃볆뮮ꆢ돇쫐맦뮮뗄맽돌ꆣ쏦뛔죕틦랢폽뗄힡햬쫐뎡뮷뺳ꎬ돇쫐맦뮮ꎬ폈웤쫇쿪쾸맦뮮믲삶춼펦랴펳힡햬쫐뎡뗄뇤뮯ꎬ쯼폫힡햬폃뗘릩펦볆뮮쿠뮥킭뗷ꎬ릲춬탎돉힡햬폃뗘엤훃벰힡햬쫐뎡뗷뿘쳥쾵뗄훘튪늿럖ꆣ3ꎩ럖뮷뷚뿎쮰ꎬ랢믓뗷뿘짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄쮰쫕룜룜ퟷ폃힡햬쮰쫕헾닟쫇헾뢮뗷뿘힡햬쫐뎡뗄뫋탄헾닟횮튻ꆣ헽좷퓋폃쮰쫕룜룋늻떫뿉틔샭쮳럖엤맘쾵ꆢ놣횤헾뢮췁뗘쫕틦ꎬ뮹뿉틔춨맽쮰뢳닮뇰쳥쿖헾뢮뗄쮰쫕헾닟뫍닺튵헾닟ꎬ뷸뛸뛔틖훆힡햬쫐뎡춶믺ꆢ뿘훆힡햬볛룱ꆢ맦랶힡햬쫐뎡붻틗탐캪뗈랽쏦웰떽쏷쿔뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ쮰쫕헾닟뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄뗷뿘믺훆훷튪쳥쿖퓚죽룶뮷뷚ꎺ힡햬뗄뾪랢ꆢ놣폐뫍죃뗈뮷뷚ꆣꎨ1ꎩ퓚뾪랢뮷뷚훐뗄쮰쫕뗷뿘평폚웕춨힡햬쫇죋쏇뗄믹놾짺믮쇏ꎬ퓚쎻폐췪짆뗄힡햬놣헏쳥쾵ꆢ죋쏇뗄137
뻓힡늻쓜췪좫싺ퟣ죋쏇탨쟳뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬ웤탨쟳떯탔킡ꎬ횻튪쫇춨맽쫐뎡믺훆엤훃힡햬ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡췹췹믡돉캪튻룶뗤탍뗄싴랽쫐뎡ꎬ쮰쫕뗄뫳탔잿ꎬ뾪랢짌죝틗붫퓶볓뗄쮰뛮쿲쿻럑헟볞ꎬ퓬돉랿볛짏헇ꆣ퓚헢튻뮷뷚헫뛔쿻럑탔탨쟳뫍춶믺탔탨쟳짨볆늻춬뗄쮰쫕헾닟살뗷뿘힡햬쫐뎡뗄ퟷ폃폐쿞ꎬ틲뛸헢튻뮷뷚늢럇쮰쫕헾닟뗷뿘짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄훘뗣ꆣ뛸룟떵힡햬ꆢ뇰쫻훷튪쫇튻훖쿭쫜쇏ꎬ탨쟳떯탔듳ꎬ퓚헢튻뮷뷚뾪헷룟떵힡햬ꆢ뇰쫻쿻럑쮰뷏쓑볞ꎬ쓜쳥쿖헾닟뗄떼쿲탔ꆣ컒맺쒿잰힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹훷튪쫜솽랽쏦틲쯘훆풼ꎺ풴풼쫸뫍릺싲쓜솦풼쫸ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뾪헷룟떵힡햬ꆢ뇰쫻쿻럑쮰뿉듓틔쿂솽랽쏦틽떼힡햬쿻럑ꎺ튻랽쏦맄샸붫풴폃폚붨짨뺭볃쫊폃랿뫍훐8뗍볛캻짌욷랿ꎬ틔싺ퟣ뛠쫽쏱훚“뻓헟폐웤컝”뗄힡랿탨쟳ꎬ듓뛸쳥쿖틔죋캪놾뫍“샻캪쏱쯹쒱”뗄뫍킳랢햹뺫짱ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦헷쫕쿻럑쮰퓶볓쇋룟떵힡햬뗄쿺쫛돉놾ꎬ튲쫊뛈틖훆쇋룟떵힡햬뗄탨쟳ꆣ춬쪱튲듓헾닟짏헃쿔쇋퓚벫웤폐쿞뗄췁뗘풴쿂ꎬ늻쳡뎫믲늻맄샸듳쏦믽힡햬뗄뾪랢ꎬ헢튲쫇짧믡뎤웚뫍킳랢햹ꆢ릹붨뷚풼탍짧믡뗄뇘좻튪쟳ꆣꎨ2ꎩ퓚힡햬놣폐뮷뷚뗄쮰쫕뗷뿘듓맺볊뇈뷏뾴ꎬ쏀맺뗄쮰쫕폅믝헾닟뷶뛔랿컝펵폐헟뗄뗚튻쳗힡햬쟣킱ꎬ죧듻뿮샻쾢뿉틔뗖쮰뗈ꆣ뛔럇ퟔ힡랿컝ꎬ퓲컞램쿭쫜뗚튻쳗힡랿뗄폅믝ꎬ늢쟒랿컝놾짭뗄캬돖럑폃쿠떱낺맳ꎬ펵폐힡햬뻍뗃쓪쓪짏쮰ꎬ튻냣쮰싊퓚1%떽%횮볤ꎬ훐닺뷗닣뗄힡햬럑폃튻냣쎿쓪뚼튪퓚4000쏀풪ퟳ폒ꎬ듓뛸듳럹뛈퓶볓쇋춶탔힡햬싲싴뫍캬돖뗄럑폃ꎬ쏷쿔붵뗍쇋힡햬춶믺탨쟳ꆣ쒿잰컒맺퓚힡햬놣폐뮷뷚뗄쮰쫕좴폐죧쿂춻돶컊쳢ꎺ튻쫇힡햬뾪랢뮷뷚쮰훖뷏뛠ꎬ쮰뢺뷏훘ꎻ힡햬놣폐뮷뷚뫍죃뮷뷚쮰훖뷏짙ꎬ쮰뢺뷏쟡ꆣ뛾쫇맺볒컞램뛔힡햬죃뗄틧볛늿럖닎폫럖엤ꎬ떼훂쮰쫕쫕죫뗄쇷쪧ꎬ뿍맛짏퓶볓쇋힡햬춶믺헟뗄쫕틦ꎬ볤뷓뗘폕랢쇋춶믺탨쟳ꆣ죽쫇늻쓜쯦ퟅ뺭볃랢햹ꆢ힡햬퓶횵뛸쿠펦퓶볓쮰쫕쫕죫ꆣ쯄쫇늻쓜뫜뫃뗘랢믓쮰쫕뗷뿘힡햬쫐뎡뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ틲듋ꎬ폐뇘튪룄룯컒맺뛔힡햬뗄헷쮰냬램ꎬ쳥쿖쟸뇰헷쫕풭퓲ꎬ뛔뗚튻쳗ퟔ힡랿쏢쮰ꎬ뗚뛾쳗ퟔ힡랿헷쮰ꎬ뗚죽쳗틔짏볓돉헷쫕ꎻ늢랴펳힡햬뗄뗘쟸닮틬탔ꎬ퓚램싉닣쏦짏ꎬ뛔돇쫐힡햬뗄헷쮰랶캧ꆢ믹놾쮰싊좷뚨ꆢ뢡뚯럹뛈뗈랽쏦뢳폨뗘랽쿠펦뗄솢램뫍맜샭좨쿞ꆣꎨ3ꎩ힡햬죃훐뗄닮뇰탔쮰쫕뗷뿘퓚힡햬죃뮷뷚펦헫뛔쿻럑탔탨쟳뫍춶믺탔탨쟳ꆢ훷뚯탔탨쟳뫍놻뚯탔탨쟳쪵탐닮뇰탔쮰쫕헾닟ꆣ뛔릺싲헟뫍돶쫛헟쪵탐닮뇰탔쮰쫕헾닟ꎬ늢뾼싇쪵볊햼폐 8 뺭볃쫊폃랿뫍훐뗍볛캻짌욷랿쫇뗍쫕죫뷗닣뗄훷튪릺싲뛔쿳ꎬ퓶볓쯼쏇뗄릩룸늢늻쓜듯떽틖훆힡햬춶믺탨쟳뗄쒿뇪ꎬ틲캪춶믺탐캪폫쫕죫룟뗍늢쎻폐뇘좻탔솪쾵ꎬ쯼룼좡뻶폚풤웚믘놨뗄룟뗍ꆣ138
좨쫴쪱볤뎤뛌짨볆힡햬죃뮷뷚뗄쮰쫕쳥쾵ꆣ듓맺볊쮰쫕쪵볹살뾴ꎬ떱힡햬랢짺싲싴뗈폐뎥죃쪱ꎬ듳뛠쫽맺볒뚼맦뚨펦뛔죃쫕틦퓶횵늿럖뿎쮰ꎺ쏀맺ꆢ죕놾ꆢ펢맺ꆢ램맺ꆢ럒삼뗈맺볒ꎬ냑힡햬죃쫕틦맩죫룶죋믲램죋뗄ퟛ뫏쫕틦ꎬ헷쫕룶죋쯹뗃쮰믲램죋쮰(릫쮾쯹뗃쮰)ꎬ웤훐쏀맺쪵탐15%떽34%뗄샛뷸쮰싊ꆣ틢듳샻붫듓싲죫떽죃쪱뗄볛룱짏헇늿럖ퟷ캪쮰믹ꎬ내헕볛룱퓶뎤럹뛈닉폃샛뷸훆ꎬ내5%~30%뗄쮰싊헷쫕늻뚯닺퓶횵쮰ꆣ컒맺1993쓪ꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺췁뗘퓶횵쮰퓝탐쳵샽ꆷ뗄냤늼쪵쪩ꎬ뛔맦랶췁뗘ꆢ힡햬쫐뎡붻틗훈탲ꎬ뫏샭뗷뷚췁뗘퓶횵쫕틦ꎬ캬뮤맺볒좨틦ꎬ틖훆맽룟뗄힡햬볛룱ꎬ랢믓쇋뫜뫃뗄ퟷ폃ꎻ1998—2001쓪ꎬ헾뢮쫽듎뗷뗍ꆢ맩늢힡햬붻틗쮰럑ꎬ뛔웴뚯룶죋힡랿쿻럑ꎬ믮풾힡햬쫐뎡웰떽쇋믽벫뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ2005쓪헫뛔솽쓪쓚뷸탐듦솿랿붻틗뗄펪튵쮰늻폨복쏢뗄헾닟캪틖훆떱쪱힡햬쫐뎡맽죈쳡릩쇋폐솦뗄횧독ꆣ떫퓚쪵볹훐ꎬ평폚쮰쫕헾닟뗄훍뫳탔뫍늻췪짆탔ꎬ뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뗷뿘쎻폐냚췑훷맛룉풤뗄맬뗀ꆣ쪵쪩닮뇰탔쮰쫕헾닟뿉복짙쮰쫕뗷뿘헾닟뗄쯦믺탔ꎬ폐샻폚틽떼힡햬춶헟뫍쿻럑헟뗄뫏샭풤웚ꆣ웤퓚닙ퟷ쪱ꎬ뿉쟸럖힡햬뗄쿻럑탨쟳헟뫍춶믺탔힡햬탨쟳헟ꎬ헫뛔늻춬뗄릺싲헟뫍힡햬쿺쫛헟짨볆늻춬뗄쮰싊ꆣ뛔힡햬돶쫛헟뛸퇔ꎬ뷡뫏쯹뗃쮰뗄룄룯뛔늻춬놣폐웚뗄힡햬폐뎥죃닺짺뗄샻죳닮틬헷쮰ꎻ뛔릺싲헟뛸퇔ꎬ릺죫캴싺튻뚨쓪쿞뗄짌욷힡랿죃헷쫕5%펪튵쮰ꎬ틔벰펪튵쮰쮰뛮7%뗄돇붨쮰뫍3%뗄뷌폽럑뢽볓ꎬ튻뚨쓪쿞틔짏복냫헷쫕ꆣ뛔닰잨뮧릺랿뗄쮰싊룸폨복쏢ꎬ뛔풭놣헏힡랿뻓힡헟릺랿뗄쮰싊룸폨복쏢뗈ꆣ뛔뛌웚쓚싲싴힡랿헟뿎틔훘쮰ꎬ평듋놣뮤뫏샭뗄샭탔탨쟳ꎬ퓶볓춶믺탔탨쟳뗄붻틗돉놾ꆣ캪쪵쪩뫃틔짏뗷뿘듫쪩ꎬ펦붡좫컒맺뗄힡햬닺좨뗇볇훆뛈ꎬힼ좷뷧뚨랿닺쯹폐죋릺뷸웕춨힡랿쪱힡햬좨횤짏볇퓘뗄쪱볤믲랿컝붻뷓쫩짏볇퓘뗄쪱볤ꎻ뫏샭뫋뚨죃힡랿쮰믹ꎬ내랿닺쯹폐죋돶쫛룃랿닺쪱폫릺랿헟잩뚩뗄랿닺싲싴뫏춬짏힢쏷뗄쫛볛ꎬ복좥릺싲룃랿닺쪱랿닺랢욱짏힢쏷뗄릺랿볛뿮뫳뗄닮뛮ퟷ캪볆쮰틀뻝ꆣ죧맻랿닺싲싴뫏춬힢쏷뗄랿닺쿺쫛볛룱쏷쿔뗍폚쫐뎡볛룱뗄ꎬ쮰컱믺맘뿉틀뻝쮰램맦뚨뫋뚨볆쮰볛룱ꎻ쇭췢ꎬ캪뇜쏢힡햬춶믺탨쟳ퟪ헾닟슩뚴ꎬ뮹펦뾪헷틅닺쮰뫍퓹폫쮰ꎬ쏖늹컞뎥죃힡햬뮷뷚뗄쮰쫕뗷뷚뗄좱캻ꆣ4ꎩ폃램싉랽쪽맦랶붻틗돌탲ꎬ뷨훺탅쾢벼쫵쳡룟힡햬붻틗맜샭킧싊힡햬붻틗쪵볊짏쫇튻훖좨틦뗄붻틗ꎬ좨틦죃뛉쫇힡햬쫐뎡믮뚯뗄뫋탄쓚죝횮튻ꆣ힡햬닺좨뗇볇늻뷶튪랢믓놣헏춶헟믲튵훷좨틦뗄믹놾릦쓜ꎬ뮹튪랢믓뇣샻쇷춨ꆢ캬뮤붻틗훈탲ꆢ듺헷쮰럑틔벰뛔힡햬쫐뎡뚯첬룺ퟙ맜샭뗄릦쓜ꆣ닺좨뗇볇늻뷶쫇힡햬쫐뎡맜샭뗄믹뒡뫍잰쳡ꎬ뛸쟒뿉틔돉캪캢맛맜샭뗄쫠얦ꎬ훮뛠뫪맛헾닟ꆢ힡햬램맦뚼뿉틔퓚닺좨뗇볇맜샭맽돌훐뻟쳥쪵쪩ꆣ139
폃램싉탎쪽맦랶훷튪뗄힡햬붻틗랽쪽ꎬ쫇틖훆춶믺ꆢ캬뮤쫐뎡훈탲뗄폐킧듫쪩ꆣ듓맺쓚췢뗄뺭퇩살뾴ꎬ쫊펦힡햬쫐뎡퓋ퟷ뗄뗇볇훆뛈펦룃쫇랿뗘뫏튻뗄뗇볇훆뛈ꎬ헢쫇평랿뗘닺벰웤쫐뎡뗄쳘탔쯹뻶뚨뗄ꆣ춳튻냬샭췁뗘ꆢ랿컝뗄닺좨뗇볇ꎬ쪵쿖힡햬닺좨뗄뗇볇랢횤ꆢ닺좨뗄춳튻맜샭폐샻폚럀횹헾돶뛠춷ꎬ쳡룟냬쫂킧싊ꎬ복짙헾뢮뛔힡햬붻틗뗄맜샭돉놾ꆣ5ꎩ릫뾪힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢ꎬ쏖늹탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄좱몶쓦쿲톡퓱뫍뗀뗂럧쿕쫇쫐뎡뺭볃놾짭닺짺뗄솽듳ꆰ쳥훆좱쿝ꆱꎬ횻폐틀뾿럇쫐뎡믺훆닅쓜뷢뻶ꆣ틲듋ꎬ헾뢮쫇럀랶힡햬쫐뎡럧쿕늻뿉좱짙뗄솦솿ꎬ헾뢮뗄ퟅ퇛뗣펦럅퓚복짙탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄헾닟뫍믺훆짏ꎬ벴훆뚩복짙힡햬탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄벤샸믺훆ꆢ놣헏믺훆ꆢ맜샭믺훆뫍랢햹믺훆뗈ꆣ죧뛔힡햬뗄뾪랢헟쪵쪩릫뾪ꆢ뇪ힼ뮯뗄훊짳닩믺훆ꎬ놣헏힡햬쫐뎡웤쯼닎폫헟뗄샻틦ꎻ짨솢튻킩쏅믺릹뛔힡랿쫐뎡뷸탐춳볆ꆢ럖컶폫퇐뺿ꎬ늢쏢럑랢늼쿻쾢ꎻ헾뢮맦뚨힡햬쫐뎡붻틗탅쾢랢늼훆뛈ꎬ붨솢짌욷랿췸짏붻틗쾵춳ꎬ퇴맢쿂뗄쿺쫛랽쪽ꎬ엠폽랢듯뗄훐뷩탐튵ꎻ훆뚨힡햬쫐뎡짌욷훊솿뫍컯튵맜샭맦훆ꆢ맦랶뗄힡햬붻틗뫏춬컄놾ꆢ힡햬쫐뎡훐뷩뫍힡햬쫐뎡뺭볍죋뗄횰튵룱죏뚨훆뛈ꎻ뛔힡랿쫐뎡훐훆퓬ꆢ탻뒫탩볙탅쾢뗄탐캪뷸탐퇏샷뗄듲믷뗈ꎬ붨솢웰힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢뛔돆믺훆ꆣ뷼튻뷗뛎닉좡틔쿂듫쪩ꎺ튻쫇볌탸췪짆탂붨짌욷랿췸짏놸낸훆뛈ꆣ퓚짮뮯췪짆쿖탐훆뛈믹뒡짏ꎬ볓잿힡햬뾪랢웳튵뫍훐뷩믺릹뗄돏탅쳥쾵붨짨ꎬ퇏샷닩뒦췸짏탩쓢붻틗ꆢ뫥첧랿볛뗄탐캪ꎬ뷸튻늽맦랶쫐뎡훈탲ꆣ뛾쫇췪짆듦솿랿붻틗탅쾢럾컱욽첨ꆣ릫뾪듦솿힡햬쫐뎡붻틗탅쾢ꎬ쳡짽럾컱쓜벶ꆢ폅뮯냬샭쇷돌ꆢ놣헏붻틗낲좫ꎬ춬쪱볓잿뛔듦솿랿쫐뎡뗄볠맜ꎬ죃쿻럑헟퓚뇈뷏짌욷힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢뫍듦솿힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢횮뫳ꎬퟷ돶뫏샭뗄톡퓱ꆣ죽쫇볌탸볓잿쫐뎡탅쾢릤ퟷꆣ퓚췪짆돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢쾵춳뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ럖쟸욬ꆢ럖힡햬떵듎맩벯짌욷힡랿쫐뎡탅쾢ꎻ퓚쫐뎡탅쾢랢늼훐ꎬ쳡릩쫐쏱맘탄뗄훐뗍볛웕춨짌욷힡랿뫍엤쳗짌욷랿뗄쿠맘탅쾢ꆣ춨맽좫쏦ꆢ벰쪱ꆢힼ좷뗄탅쾢엻슶ꎬ뷸튻늽쳡룟쫐뎡춸쏷뛈ꆣ쯄쫇볓잿짌욷힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢뗄췚뻲ꎬ붨솢훐맺룷돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢뗄뮥춨믺훆뫍힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄풤뺯풤놨훆뛈ꎬ뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄틬뎣늨뚯닉좡럖늽듫쪩벰쪱폨틔랢늼ꎺ쫗쿈평쿠펦뿆퇐믺릹릫늼힡햬쫐뎡틬뎣늨뚯럖컶뷡맻ꎻ죧맻뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄틬뎣늨뚯첬쫆캴폐킣헽ퟷ폃쪱ꎬ퓙평헾뢮랢늼쟩뿶춨놨ꎻ컥쫇뷨훺췸싧탅쾢벼쫵ꎬ믹폚WEB헻뫏돇쫐쿠맘늿쏅폐맘힡햬쫐뎡뗄탅쾢ꎬ늢캪돇쫐짌욷힡햬춶헟뫍쿻럑헟쳡릩힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢톯ꎬ뷸튻늽쳡룟힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐뗄킧싊뫍춸쏷뛈ꆣ140
6ꎩ볓잿힡햬쫐뎡볠맜ꎬ럀랶뷰죚럧쿕떱잰틸탐탅듻뷰쫇컒맺힡햬쫐뎡뾪랢춶뷰뗄훷튪살풴ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡튵폫틸탐튵뗄랢햹쾢쾢쿠맘ꆣ튻떩힡햬쫐뎡돶쿖듳럹뗷헻ꎬ붫닺짺솬쯸랴펦ꎬ틸탐듻뿮뗄뎥뮹뻍믡돶쿖캣믺ꎬ듓뛸믡폕랢뷰죚럧늨ꎬ떼훂뷰죚캣믺ꆣ캪쇋폐킧뗘럀횹힡햬쫐뎡돶쿖듳웰듳실뫍뻧쇒헰떴ꎬ탐튵훷맜늿쏅ꎬ냼삨힡햬쫐뎡탐헾맜샭늿쏅뫍뷰죚튵볠뚽맜샭늿쏅튪볓잿쫐뎡볠맜ꎬ쏜쟐볠쫓쫐뎡뚯첬ꎬ닉좡럀랶듫쪩ꆣ뷰죚늿쏅튪뺡뿬췪짆힡햬쫐뎡뗖톺듻뿮럧쿕맜샭듫쪩ꎬ탎돉폐킧뗄뮯뷢뷰죚럧쿕믺훆ꎬ쳡룟뷰죚럧쿕럀랶쓜솦ꆣ뻟쳥펦냼삨틔쿂벸랽쏦쓚죝ꎺꎨ1ꎩ볓잿힡랿뷰죚럧쿕럖컶힡랿뷰죚럧쿕닺짺뗄룹놾풭틲퓚폚탅쾢뗄늻뛔돆ꎬ틲듋럀랶힡햬쫐뎡뷰죚럧쿕뗄뫋탄컊쳢뻍쫇붨솢췪짆뗄힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢믺훆ꎬ룷뷰죚훷쳥펦떱힢훘쿠맘탅쾢뗄쯑톰ꆢ헻샭ꆢ럖컶뫍퓋폃ꆣꎨ2ꎩ잿뮯틸탐뛔힡햬웳튵뗄풼쫸뫍벤샸잿뮯틸탐뛔힡햬웳튵듻뿮뷰뗄풼쫸뫍벤샸믺훆ꎬ맄샸힡햬웳튵뺭맽돉놾쫕틦럖컶뫳쓜믽벫듓쫂싺ퟣ돇쫐뻓쏱힡햬쿻럑뗄럾컱ꎬ럅웺믲복짙힡햬쫐뎡춶믺탐캪ꎬퟔ뻵내헕쮫랽듯돉뗄틢풸탐쫂ꆣ샽죧쪵탐듻뿮뗖톺믲훊톺ꎬ움뚨웳튵탅폃뗈벶ꎬ냤랢듻뿮횤뗈훆뛈ꎬ럖뇰듓짌욷힡햬웳튵닺ꆢ탅폾뗈랽쏦붨솢웰풼쫸뫍벤샸믺훆ꆣꎨ3ꎩ볓잿뛔힡햬듻뿮뗄볠맜쯦ퟅ쫐뎡퓋ퟷ뗄맦랶뮯뫍뺺헹볓뻧ꎬ캪쇋뇜쏢힡랿뾪랢웳튵ꆰ뿕쫖쳗냗샇ꆱꎬ틸탐뿉틔닉좡튻쾵쇐듫쪩ꎬ뫏샭맦랶춶탐캪ꎬ볡뻶틖훆춶믺뎴ퟷꎺ튻쫇튪쟳뾪랢짌뻟폐튻뚨뗄ퟔ폐뷰뇈싊ꎬퟔ평뷰뇈싊풽룟ꎬ룃쿮쒿죚뗄럧쿕쿠뛔풽킡ꆣ뛾쫇튪쟳틸탐뛔쿮쒿듻뿮ퟜ뛮룹뻝짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ뿶뷸탐뫋뚨ꎬ퓚돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯캻쫆뷏뗍쪱ꎬ붫듻뿮ퟜ뛮뿘훆퓚틑췪릤뗄퓚붨릤돌뫍힡햬폃뗘움맀횵뗄7ꆢ8돉랶캧쓚ꆣ퓚돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯캻쫆뷏룟쪱ꎬ붫듻뿮ퟜ뛮뿘훆퓚틑췪릤뗄퓚붨릤돌뫍힡햬폃뗘움맀횵뗄6돉벰웤틔쿂랶캧쓚ꆣ죽쫇퇏룱럀랶랿뗘닺탅듻럧쿕ꎬ뛔힡랿듻뿮뗄샻싊틔벰냬샭내뷒뗄볤룴쪱볤뗈룹뻝힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐ힴ뿶ퟷ돶뗷헻ꎬ볈캪돇쫐뻓쏱릺싲ퟔ힡웕춨짌욷힡랿쳡릩탅듻횧돖ꎬ춬쪱폖튪틖훆춶믺탔릺랿뗄듻뿮탨쟳ꆣퟜ횮ꎬ캪쇋뇜쏢힡햬쫐뎡틬뎣늨뚯뛔컒맺돇쫐뫍킳랢햹퓬돉뢺쏦돥믷ꎬ횻폐춨맽랿뗘닺쫐뎡맜샭ꆢ힡햬쮰쫕헾닟ꆢ믵뇒헾닟뗈뛠맜뗷뿘ꎬ랢믓쫐뎡뗄ퟔ훷뗷뷚ퟷ폃ꎬ닅쓜뫏샭뗷뿘돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡ꆣ141
엤쳗듫쪩 붨솢붡좫돇쫐힡햬놣헏쳥쾵돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ뿶폫돇쫐힡햬릩룸뷡릹쾢쾢쿠맘ꆣ뷸탐힡햬릩룸뷡릹럖컶ꎬ폅뮯짌욷힡햬ꆢ뺭볃쫊폃랿뫍솮ퟢ컝뗄뷡릹ꎬ뇘좻짦벰떽뛔늻춬쫕죫닣듎볒춥쯹쪵탐뗄늻춬힡랿릩룸헾닟ꎬ웤쪵훊폖쫇헾뢮뛔힡랿쫐뎡룉풤뗄훘뗣폫랽쪽뗄톡퓱ꆣ힡랿짌욷뮯늢늻업돢힡랿뗄짧믡놣헏ꎬ튻룶뫃뗄힡랿훆뛈뇘좻쫇평쫐뎡믺훆뫍힡랿짧믡놣헏훆뛈폐믺릹돉뗄훆뛈ꆣ헾훎낲뚨ꆢ짧믡릫욽뗈틲쯘쫇룷쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒뫍뗘쟸붨솢힡랿놣헏훆뛈뗄믹놾풭틲ꎬ떫뺭볃랢햹ꆢ쫐뎡퓋탐킧싊ꆢ쫐뎡ퟷ폃폫헾뢮룉풤뗄맘쾵튲쫇룷맺헾뢮뻶뚨힡랿놣헏랽쪽뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣ헢킩틲쯘뫍룷맺힡랿컊쳢쏦쇙뻟쳥쟩뿶뗄닮틬ꎬ뻶뚨쇋힡랿놣헏랽쪽뗄뛠퇹탔ꆣ떱잰ꎬ컒맺돇쫐뻓쏱쫕죫뗄닮틬뻶뚨쇋떱잰컒맺뇘탫붨솢쫊펦늻춬쫕죫뻓쏱힡랿횧돶쓜솦뗄뛠닣듎힡랿릩룸쳥쾵ꎬ벴붨솢럖뇰쏦쿲룟쫕죫뻓쏱볒춥뫍훐뗍쫕죫볒춥뗄짌욷힡햬릩룸쳥쾵ꆢ쏦쿲뗍쫕죫믲ퟮ뗍쫕죫뻓쏱볒춥뗄뺭볃쫊폃힡랿릩룸쳥쾵뫍솮ퟢ힡랿릩룸쳥쾵ꆣ웤훐ꎬ붨짨뺭볃쫊폃힡랿쫇컒맺랢햹짧믡놣헏힡랿뗄훘뗣ꎬ튲쫇붡좫힡햬릩룸쳥쾵뗄훘튪랽쏦ꎬ늢틔듋룄뇤쒿잰컒맺돇헲힡랿쫐뎡짏듦퓚뗄힡랿릩룸뷡릹늻쫊펦돇헲뻓쏱뗄힡랿탨쟳뷡릹ꎬ쟐쪵뷢뻶맣듳뗍쫕죫볒춥뗄힡랿놣헏컊쳢ꆣ웤뻟쳥듫쪩폐ꎺ1ꎩ좷뚨돇쫐뺭볃쫊폃랿뗄뫏샭릩룸볆뮮ꎬ볓잿놣헏탔힡햬뗄맜샭뗚튻ꆢ뫏샭훆뚨뺭볃쫊폃힡랿랢햹맦뮮뫍쓪뛈붨짨맦뮮죏헦뗷닩놾뗘돇헲죋뿚ꆢ횰릤쫕죫뫍짌욷힡랿쫐뎡볛룱뫍듦솿힡햬ힴ뿶ꎬ돤럖퇐뺿돇헲뺭볃랢햹ꆢ뾪랢붨짨뗄ퟜ쳥맦뮮ꎬ퓚놣횤짌욷힡햬쫐뎡헽뎣랢햹ꆢ돤럖뾼싇짧믡릫욽탔뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ뫏샭좷뚨죴룉쓪뺭볃쫊폃힡랿뗄붨짨ퟜ솿ꎬ캪뺭볃쫊폃힡랿릩룸맦뮮뗄뇠훆뫍볆뮮뗬뚨믹뒡ꆣ뗚뛾ꆢ잿뮯뺭볃쫊폃힡랿뗄붨짨훊솿맜샭뺭볃쫊폃힡랿뗄훊솿냼삨킡쟸뮷뺳훊솿ꆢ힡랿릦쓜훊솿뫍릤돌훊솿틔벰쫛뫳컯튵맜샭럾컱쮮욽ꆣ뗚죽ꆢ붨솢붡좫뺭볃쫊폃힡랿죫힡맜샭냬램평폚뺭볃쫊폃힡랿쫇뻟폐짧믡놣헏탔훊뗄쳘쫢짌욷힡랿ꎬ틲듋튪내헕맺볒랿룄헾닟ꎬ훆뚨돇헲훐뗍쫕죫쿟뮮럖냬램뫍뺭볃쫊폃랿뗄붨짨뇪ힼꎬ쏷좷릺랿룱쳵볾ꎬ붨솢뫍췪짆뺭볃쫊폃힡랿짪쟫ꆢ짳닩훆뛈ꆢ췪짆튻헻쳗맦랶뮯뗄죫힡맜샭142
냬램뫍죃냬샭돌탲ꎬ늢붨솢붡좫좫맺탔뗄뚽달믺릹ꎬ볬닩뺭볃쫊폃랿뇪ힼ뗄횴탐ꆢ죫힡뮧뗄룱틔벰쪹폃쟩뿶ꆣ2ꎩ붨솢솮ퟢ힡랿ퟢ쇞탂믺훆뗚튻ꆢ 뫏샭좷뚨솮ퟢ힡랿뢲룇쏦ꎬ쟐쪵놣헏돇헲ퟮ뗍쫕죫볒춥뗄믹놾힡랿탨쟳ꆣ룹뻝돇쫐뺭볃랢햹쟩뿶ꎬ뫏샭좷뚨솮ퟢ힡랿붨짨쏦믽뫍붨짨뇪ힼꎬ볓잿솮ퟢ뛔쿳뗄죏뚨ꆢ엤ퟢ릤ퟷꆣ뗚뛾ꆢ붨솢솮ퟢ힡랿ퟢ쇞탂믺훆ꆣ튻랽쏦ꎬ뛔쳘삧돇쫐볒춥룸폨죫힡솮ퟢ컝뗄믺믡ꎬ늢탎돉솮ퟢ컝췋돶믺훆ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ듓쳘삧돇쫐볒춥뢺떣쓜솦돶랢ꎬ뫏샭좷뚨솮ퟢ컝ퟢ뷰ꆣ쿖뷗뛎룹뻝쿈뗣뫳쏦ꆢ룷벶헾뢮뫏샭럖떣뗄풭퓲ꎬ뛔뺭볃삧쓑뗄돇쫐뻓쏱볒춥ꎬ틔폅믝ퟢ뷰쫔뗣돶ퟢ힡랿ꎬ훰늽붨솢쏦쿲뗍쫕죫볒춥뗄솮ퟢ컝ퟢ쇞탂믺훆ꆣ 믽벫엠폽돇쫐듦솿랿쫐뎡튻룶췪헻뗄쫐뎡뷡릹쳥쾵ꎬ내웤붻틗믮뚯펦냼삨퓶솿쫐뎡뫍듦솿쫐뎡ꎬ뛸쟒퓚힡햬쫐뎡늽죫컈뚨랢햹웚틔뫳ꎬ뫢솿힡랿쫐뎡쫇럱랢듯ꎬ튲틔듦솿쫐뎡캪뇪ힼꆣ떫컒맺쿖뷗뛎뺭볃퓶뎤뿬ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡뷡릹쿔쿖퓶솿쫐뎡뇈훘듳ꎬ뇭쿖뇈뷏믮풾뗄쳘헷ꎻ뛸듦솿힡햬훊솿늻룟ꆢ듦솿힡햬붻틗뗄믽벫탔쎻폐뗃떽벤랢ꎬ듳솿듦솿힡랿쎻폐퓙듎뷸죫쫐뎡닎폫쇷춨죃믲ퟢ쇞ꎬ틔훁폚쎻쓜탎돉튻룶췪헻쫐뎡뷡릹쳥쾵ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚믮풾돇쫐짌욷힡랿쫐뎡뗄춬쪱ꎬ튪훘뗣엠폽뫍벤믮듦솿힡랿뗄붻틗벰ퟢ쇞쫐뎡ꎬ탎돉튻룶췪헻뗄쫐뎡뷡릹쳥쾵ꆣ헢퇹ꎬ폐샻폚돇쫐힡햬풴뗄뫏샭샻폃ꎻ폐샻폚뿕훃짌욷랿뗄쿻뮯컼쓉ꎬ듙뷸힡랿헢룶쿻럑죈뗣뫍탂뗄뺭볃퓶뎤뗣뗄탎돉ꎻ폐샻폚듦솿힡햬쫐뎡뷡릹뗷헻ꎬ쳡룟붻틗욵싊ꎬ듙뷸듦솿힡랿뗄폅뮯엤훃ꎻ폐샻폚짌욷힡햬쫐뎡폫듦솿힡햬쫐뎡탎돉솼탔뮥뚯믺훆ꆣ캪듋펦닉좡죧쿂뛔닟ꎺ뗚튻ꆢ붵뗍듦솿힡햬쫐뎡붻틗돉놾ꆣ헾뢮펦ퟛ뫏퓋폃닆쮰ꆢ뷰죚헾닟ꆢ췁뗘헾닟뗈붵뗍듦솿힡햬쫐뎡뗄뷸죫ꆰ쏅뾲ꆱꎬ늻뛏퓶잿맣듳뻓쏱뗄듦솿힡랿탨쟳폻췻뫍쿻럑욫뫃ꆣ춬쪱튲튪뛴훆듦솿힡햬쫐뎡짏뗄춶믺탐캪ꆣ뗚뛾ꆢ붨솢힡햬쳝뛈쿻럑뗄샭쓮ꆣ죋뗄튻짺뇤뮯컞쟮ꎬ룷뷗뛎뗄맛쓮ꆢ쓜솦ꆢ쮮욽뚼폐뷏듳닮틬ꎬ튻냣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ룕릤ퟷ웚볤ꆢ룕뷸죫돇쫐릤ퟷ믲뒴튵뗄쪱뫲ꎬ힡햬쿻럑쓜솦뷏뗍ꎬ헢튻쪱웚뗄힡햬쿻럑쮮욽튲늻룟ꎬ쯦ퟅ쫕죫뗄쳡룟ꎬ죋쏇뗄쿻럑훰늽쿲탂힡햬ꆢ훇쓜힡햬ꆢ듳쏦믽힡햬ꆢ뮷뺳뫃뗄힡햬랽쿲랢햹ꎬ힡햬쿻럑뗄닣듎늻뛏뗃떽쳡룟ꆣ듓붨짨뷚풼탍짧믡뗄뷇뛈뛸퇔ꎬ쿻럑쓜솦늻룟쪱ꎬ늻튻뚨튪쎤쒿ힷ쟳탂랿ꆢ듳랿ꎬ뿉틔쿻럑듦솿힡햬ꆣ143
뗷뿘뗄힢틢쫂쿮쪵쿖돇쫐힡햬뗄릩쟳ퟜ솿믹놾욽뫢ꎬ뷡릹뫏샭ꆢ뻓쏱낲뻓쫇헾뢮뛔힡랿쫐뎡뫪맛뗷뿘쒿뗄ꆣ헢훖릩쟳ퟜ솿뗄욽뫢뫍뫏샭뷡릹쫇튻훖뚯첬뗄룅쓮ꎬ쫇붨솢퓚맺쏱뺭볃랢햹믹뒡짏뗄욽뫢뫍폅뮯ꎬ튲쫇돤럖샻폃쫐뎡믺훆뗄뷡맻ꆣ틲듋ꎬ튪뗷뿘쫐뎡ꎬ놣돖돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄헽뎣랢햹ꎬ폈웤횵뗃힢틢뗄쫇퓚쫐뎡뗷뿘쪱ꎬ돤럖퇐뺿캴살힡햬뗄탨쟳솿ꆢ돇쫐맺쏱쫕죫뗄퓶뎤쮮욽ꆢ돤럖랢믓쫐뎡믺훆뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ1ꎩ돤럖랢믓쫐뎡ퟔ컒뗷뷚믺훆힡햬쫐뎡뗄뗷뿘늢늻쫇캪쇋쿷죵쫐뎡뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ쿠랴룼펦훘쫓힡햬쫐뎡맦싉뗄죏쪶ꎬ룼펦훘쫓룄짆힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐뮷뺳ꎬ뒴퓬쳵볾ꎬ돤럖랢믓짌욷힡햬쫐뎡믺훆엤훃짌욷힡햬뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ듓뺭볃엤훃풴뗄뷇뛈ꎬ죃럇욶삧뗄돇쫐뻓쏱룹뻝ퟔ짭뗄쫕죫뫍쿻럑욫뫃ꎬ떽힡햬쫐뎡짏ꎬ룹뻝힡햬뗄릩룸폫탨쟳맦싉ꎬퟔ훷톡퓱힡랿ꆣ뛸힡햬뗄릩룸폫탨쟳ꎬ릩쟳뗄훊뫍솿ꎬ뚼쫜떽뺭볃랢햹쮮욽ꆢ맺쏱쫕죫퓶뎤뗄훆풼ꎬ틲듋럖컶힡햬뗄릩쟳뻹뫢뫍헽뎣늨뚯뻍펦뾼싇맺쏱쫕죫쓜돐쫜뗄힡햬쫽솿뫍훊솿ꎬ놣횤짌욷힡햬뗄릩쟳폫맺쏱쫕죫뗄퓶뎤쮮욽쿠쫊펦ꆣ헢튻랽쏦탨튪룹뻝맺쏱뺭볃뗄랢햹ꆢ맺쏱쫕죫퓶뎤ힴ뿶ꎬ내쫐뎡맦싉뫏샭뗷뷚릩룸ꎬ뗷뷚힡햬짺닺춶퓚맺쏱쫕죫훐햼폐뗄뇈샽ꎬ듙뷸돇쫐짌욷힡햬뗄짺닺폫퓙짺닺뗄솼탔톭뮷ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ내쫐뎡뗄맦싉퓋ퟷꎬ쪹뫏샭뗄돇쫐뻓쏱힡햬쿻럑탨쟳뗃떽싺ퟣꎬ듙쪹릩쟳믹놾욽뫢ꆣ폫횮쿠맘뗄컊쳢쫇뗍쫕죫믲욶삧볒춥뗄힡랿컊쳢ꎬ듓릫욽탔뫍뫍킳짧믡붨짨뗄뷇뛈뛸퇔ꎬ뗍쫕죫믲욶삧볒춥뗄힡햬늻뿉쓜좫늿내쫐뎡맦싉ퟩ횯짺닺뫍쇷춨ꎬ뛔욶삧뗄볒춥탨튪붨솢튻뚨뗄짧믡놣헏쳥쾵ꎬ훰늽췪짆뺭볃쫊폃랿뫍솮ퟢ컝뗄릩룸뫍엤훃믺훆ꆣ2ꎩ뇘탫뷸탐뿆톧뗄힡햬쫐뎡릩쟳풤닢힡햬쫐뎡뗄풤닢뗄뺫좷탔ꎬ횱뷓펰쿬힡햬쫐뎡뗷뿘뗄뿆톧ꆢ뿉탐탔ꆣ튻냣살쮵ꎬ돇쫐뛌웚힡햬탨쟳솿훷튪평뺭볃틲쯘죧쫕죫ꆢ볛룱ꆢ탅듻쳵볾뗈틲쯘뻶뚨ꆣ돇쫐죋뿚퓚뛌웚쓚뇤뮯늻듳ꎬ뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄탨쟳늨뚯펰쿬뷏킡ꆣ듓뎤웚살뾴ꎬ짧믡죋뿚틲쯘ꆢ뺭볃랢햹쮮욽퓲웰ퟅ럇뎣훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ뎤웚풤닢펦붫훘뗣럅퓚죋뿚풤닢ꆢ힡랿맦쒣폫럖늼풤닢틔벰폫횮쿠맘뗄힡햬탨쟳솿풤닢뗈랽쏦ꆣ튻룶맺볒퓚튻뚨쪱웚쓚뗄힡햬랢햹맦쒣ꎬ쫇평짺닺솦랢햹쮮욽뻶뚨뗄ꎬ떱좻튲쫜떽랢햹햽싔뫍랢햹랽헫뗄펰쿬ꎬ펰쿬힡햬랢햹맦쒣뗄틲쯘폐힡랿붨훾춶퓚맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵훐뗄뇈훘ꆢ죋뿚ꆢ쎿쳗힡햬뗄붨훾퓬볛뫍쏦믽뇪ힼ뗈ꆣ3ꎩ힢틢뗷뿘뗄뛈144
뫪맛뗷뿘뗄뛈ꎬ뻍쫇뫪맛뗷뿘듫쪩뗄ퟷ폃솦뗄듳킡ꆢ돌뛈ꆣ뗷뿘뛈뻶뚨쇋뗷뿘뗄킧맻뫍쯙뛈ꆣ뗷뿘솦뛈폈죧폃튩솿ꎬ폃튩솿맽듳맽킡뚼믡펰쿬훎쇆킧맻ꆣ죧맻뗷뿘뗄솦뛈늻릻ꎬ퓲뗷뿘듫쪩랢믓ퟷ폃뇈뷏싽ꎬ믲헟쫇쓑틔웰떽펦폐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ샽죧퓚뺭볃쮥췋쪱ꎬ닉좡붵쾢듫쪩ꎬ붵쾢럹뛈맽킡퓲킧맻늻쏷쿔ꆣ랴횮ꎬ죧맻솦뛈맽듳ꎬ뿉쓜믡쫊뗃웤랴ꎬ퓬돉뺭볃뻧쇒늨뚯ꆣ죎뫎뗷뿘쫖뛎뚼튪뾼싇웤쪵쪩솦뛈ꆣ죧샻싊룟뗍ꆢ쮰싊룟뗍ꆢ탅듻맦쒣듳킡ꆢ탐헾램맦뗄잿죵ꆣ뿉볻ꎬ뗷뿘솦뛈쫇쓑틔헆컕뗄ꎬ뇘탫뷡뫏뗷뿘뗄돇쫐ꆢ뗷뿘뗄훘뗣ꆢ뗷뿘뗄랽쿲틔벰닉좡뗄뗷뿘쫖뛎ꎬ룹뻝힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쪵볊퓋탐ힴ뿶춨엌뾼싇ꎬ퓚쪵볹훐늻뛏ퟜ뷡맦싉ꎬ폃맦싉횸떼뗷뿘ꆣ4ꎩ뫏샭좷뚨뗷뿘쪱믺뗷뿘쪱믺훷튪횸펦퓚뫎쪱쪵쪩돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뫪맛뗷뿘ꎬ퓚뫎쪱뮻뗷뿘듫쪩ꎬ뗷뿘뛔닟쪵쪩뗄쪱볤뎤뛌틔벰뗷뿘듫쪩폐킧탔뗄쪱볤ꆣ짏쫶쪱볤뗣폫랢믓뗷뿘ퟷ폃뗄쪱볤폐튻뚨뗄쪱훍ꎬ믲돆캪“쪱볤닮”ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡릩탨늻욽뫢ꆢ쫐뎡늨뚯죏횪힡햬쫐뎡늻헽뎣늨뚯뗄쪱훍죏횪힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ뿶뫪맛뻶닟닣춳튻죏쪶탎훆뚨힡햬쫐뎡뫪맛뗷뿘뗄볆뮮ꆢ듫쪩뗄쪱훍돉힡햬쫐뎡뫪맛뗷뿘뻶닟뗄훆뚨탂힡햬쫐뎡훷쳥죏춬ꆢ뗷헻캢맛뻶닟뗄쪱훍뗄힡돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡닎폫헟뻶닟햬쫐믱좡힡햬폃뗘훁뾪랢붨짨췪돉뗄쪱훍뎡힡햬쫐뎡훷쳥닺짺탐뚯탅쾢릩룸탨쟳뇤뮯틽웰힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쪱훍힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뇤뮯춼6ꎭ1 뗷뿘쫇쪱훍럖컶춼듓돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡틬뎣늨뚯탅쾢랢돶ꆢ뫪맛뗷뿘듫쪩뗄훆뚨틔벰떽힡햬쫐뎡랢짺랴펦횮볤뗄쪱훍훷튪폐컥듳샠ꎬ튻샠쫇듓힡햬쫐뎡릩탨늻욽뫢ꆢ쫐뎡늨뚯탅뫅뗄랢돶훁죋쏇죏쪶떽탨튪닉좡뛔닟볓틔뷃헽횮볤뗄쪱훍ꎻ뛾샠쪱훍쫇듓죋쏇죏쪶떽탨튪닉좡뗷뿘뛔닟훁뫪맛뗷뿘늿쏅쪵쪩뗷뿘듫쪩캪횹뗄쪱볤맽돌ꆣ평폚쫐뎡쇏ꆢ맜샭쮮욽ꆢ뻶닟믺훆뗄잷좱틔벰힡햬쫐뎡짦벰탐튵뛠ꎬ뫪맛뗷뿘늿쏅늻쓜십짏헫뛔쫐뎡늨뚯ퟷ돶에뛏뫍뻶닟ꆣ횻폐뺭맽튻뛎쪱볤틔뫳ꎬ맜샭늿쏅닅쓜믱뗃돤럖뗄쇏ꎬ좡뗃죏쪶짏뗄튻훂ꎬ뾪쪼퇐뺿뛔닟ꎬ훆뚨폐킧뗄뗷뿘듫쪩ꆣ웤쪱훍뗄145
뎤뛌ꎬ좡뻶폚맜샭늿쏅쫕벯쇏쪱볤뗄뎤뛌ꆢ퇐뺿뗄쮮욽뫍뻶닟뗄킧싊ꎬ춬쪱뮹폫뗷뿘뗄쒿뇪폐맘ꆣ죧맻쫇뛠쒿뇪뻶닟뫍뗷뿘ꎬ뇘좻쪹뻶닟쓑뛈볓듳ꎬ탨튪뛔룷훖뛔닟볓틔좡짡ꎬ뮨럑뗄쪱볤ퟔ좻튪뎤ꎻ죽샠쪱훍쫇힡햬쫐뎡훷쳥죏춬뫪맛뗷뿘듫쪩ꆢ뗷헻웳튵믲룶쳥캢맛뻶닟뗄쪱훍ꆣ힡햬쫐뎡뾪랢웳튵ꆢ쿻럑헟듓죏쪶탂뗄헾닟뮷뺳ꎬ룄뇤ퟔ벺뗄춶뫍쿻럑뻶닟ꎬ떽닉좡탐뚯횮잰뗄쪱볤췹췹쫜떽뫪맛뗷뿘듫쪩틔벰뛔쫐뎡풤웚뗄뛠훘펰쿬ꎻ쯄샠쪱훍쫇힡햬춶헟ꆢ뾪랢짌뫍쿻럑헟퓚뻶닟횮뫳ꎬ뾪쪼탐뚯횮볤뗄쪱볤맽돌ꆣ평폚쫐뎡뗄닎폫헟훚뛠ꎬ탭뛠뗄탐캪틲쯘늻컈뚨ꎬ뛔뫪맛뗷뿘듫쪩뗄랴펦돌뛈늻춬ꎬ펦뇤쓜솦늻춬ꎬ뛔쫐뎡뗄펰쿬솦늻춬ꎬ퓙볓짏뺭볃뮷뺳늻춬ꎬ퓬돉쇋쪱볤뎤뛈뇤틬뷏듳ꎻ컥샠쪱훍쫇힡햬춶헟ꆢ뾪랢짌뫍쿻럑헟퓚탐뚯횮뫳ꎬ뛔헻룶힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯닺짺펰쿬뗄쪱볤맽돌ꆣ붻랿뇈샽뾢릤훁붻랿뗄쪱훍힡햬욽뻹쪹폃쫙쏼뛔릩탨닮뗄쿬펦쪱훍맦뮮훁뾪릤뗄쪱훍힡햬붨짨웚맦뮮엺ힼ쏦믽힡햬뾢릤쏦믽듦솿랿쏦믽힡햬쪩릤쏦믽맦뮮뾢릤쪩릤붻랿랿컝닰돽엺ힼ쿖쫛쏦믽엺ힼ풤쫛쏦믽풤쫛쏦믽쿖쫛쏦믽랿컝닰잨쏦믽힡햬닰돽쏦믽탂퓶힡햬릩룸솿힡햬릩룸ퟜ솿닰돽쪱볤닰붨뇈힡햬릩탨닮힡햬탨쟳ퟜ솿훘훃힡햬솿죋뿚뎣힡죋뿚힡햬춶탨쟳퓝힡죋뿚춶탨쟳싊죋뻹힡햬쏦믽춼6ꎭ2 힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢뒫뗝쾵춳춼틔짏쪱훍뗄쎿튻샠뚼평죴룉쪱훍릹돉ꎬ죧쫐뎡훷쳥퓚죏쪶떽쫐뎡릩쟳늻뻹뫢ힴ뿶틔뫳ꎬ룹뻝헾뢮뗄맦뮮뗷뿘듫쪩ꎬ뗷헻룶쳥뻶닟ꎬ탨튪뺭맽맦뮮훁뾪릤뗄쪱훍ꆢ힡햬붨짨웚뗄쪱훍ꆢ뾢릤훁붻랿뗄쪱훍뗈ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ쪵쪩돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뫪맛뗷뿘ꎬ튪돤럖뾼싇뗷뿘뗄쪱훍ꆣ냑컕뫪맛뗷뿘뗄 “죽탔”ꎬ벴뗷뿘듫쪩횴탐쪱볤뻟폐뗄쇩믮탔ꎬ뗷뿘듫쪩킧맻뗄훍뫳탔ꎬ뗷뿘듫쪩훕횹뫳뗄킧폃퇓동탔ꆣ튲폐톧헟붫헢ꆰ죽탔ꆱ볲돆캪뗷뿘뗄떯탔ꆢ햳탔뫍맟탔ꆣ뫪맛뗷뿘뗄쪱볤떯탔쫇횸뗷뿘듫쪩뗄쪵쪩쪱믺폐뫜듳뗄쇩믮탔뫍짬쯵탔ꆣ폐쪱뫲뫜쓑에뛏ퟮ병뗄뗷뿘쪱믺뫍쪱볤뎤뛌ꆣ쪵쪩뫪맛뗷뿘듫쪩뗄쪱믺럇뎣훘튪ꆣ146
죧맻퓚힡햬쫐뎡뢴쯕뷗뛎맽퓧뗘닉좡붵컂듫쪩ꎬ퓲폐뿉쓜틖훆힡햬쫐뎡뗄랢햹ꎻ죧맻퓚랱죙뷗뛎늻벰쪱닉좡붵컂듫쪩ꎬ퓲폐뿉쓜돶쿖맽죈뫍엝쒭ꎻ죧맻퓚쮥췋뷗뛎늻벰쪱닉좡벤믮힡햬쫐뎡뗄폐킧듫쪩ꎬ퓲쫐뎡쓑틔뇜쏢뷸죫쿴쳵ꆣ맽퓧ꆢ맽췭뗘닉좡쒳쿮듫쪩믲좡쿻쒳킩듫쪩ꎬ뚼믡퓬돉쯰쪧ꎬ떼훂룼볓뻧쇒뗄쫐뎡늨뚯ꆣ뗷뿘듫쪩킧맻뗄햳탔믲훍뫳탔쫇횸뫪맛뗷뿘듫쪩쪵쪩횮뫳ꎬ쯼늢늻쓜십짏랢믓ퟷ폃ꎬ뛸듦퓚튻뚨뗄쪱볤닮ꆣ뫃뇈돔튩ꎬ튩솦늻믡십짏랢짺ퟷ폃ꎬ늡쟩늻믡십짏뗃떽뮺뫍ꆣ뫪맛뗷뿘듫쪩뻟폐훍뫳탔ꎬ폐뛠랽쏦뗄풭틲ꎬ뿉쓜쫇쿠맘듫쪩뗄늻엤쳗ꎬ뿉쓜쫇쫐뎡닎폫헟뗄랴펦동뛛ꎬ튲뿉쓜쫇듫쪩솦뛈늻릻ꆣ뫪맛뗷뿘킧폃뗄맟탔쫇횸뫪맛뗷뿘듫쪩훕횹횮뫳ꎬ훁킧솦훕횹뮹탨튪폐튻룶쪱볤맽돌ꆣ샽죧퓚럅쯉틸룹횮뫳ꎬ뾪랢짌뷰뷴헅뗄뻖쏦늢늻믡십짏룄맛ꎬ틲캪탂뗄뷰뷨듻뮹탨튪튻뚨뗄쪱볤ꆣ춶랢믓킧솦튲탨튪튻뚨뗄쪱볤ꆣ뇧횤뗘뾴ꎬ쒳튻쿮듫쪩뗄좡쿻뻍쫇쇭튻듎듫쪩뗄뾪쪼ꎬ잰튻쿮듫쪩훕횹뫳뗄맟탔퓲돉캪뫳튻쿮듫쪩뗄햳탔ꆣ샽죧횴탐럅쯉틸룹뗄듫쪩뻍틢캶ퟅ좡쿻뷴쯵틸룹뗄듫쪩ꎬ뛸뷴쯵틸룹뗄킧폃맟탔뻍쪹뗃럅쯉틸룹킧폃뻟폐쇋햳탔ꆣ떱좻ꎬ헫뛔폚늻춬뗄뫪맛뗷뿘듫쪩ꎬ웤떯탔ꆢ햳탔ꆢ맟탔튲룷늻쿠춬ꆣ튻냣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뛔캢맛훷쳥펰쿬풽횱뷓뗄듫쪩ꎬ죧쮰쫕뗷헻ꆢ듻뿮돉쫽뗄뗷헻ꎬ햳탔풽킡ꆣ5ꎩ헫뛔늻춬뗄힡햬쫐뎡튪쯘쪵쪩뗷뿘짌욷힡햬쫐뎡폫짌튵랿뗘닺뫍릤튵랿뗘닺쫐뎡쳘탔늻춬ꎬ웤뗷뿘뗄듫쪩튲늻쓜ꆰ튻떶쟐ꆱꎬ뛸펦헫뛔늻춬뗄컯튵닉좡늻춬뗄뫪맛뗷뿘듫쪩ꆣ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뫪맛뗷뿘뗄믹놾뛔쿳쫇짌욷힡햬쫐뎡훐뗄짌욷힡햬닺욷ꆣ짌욷힡햬닺욷폫돇쫐힡햬뗄웤쯻쾸럖닺욷죧솮ퟢ컝ꆢ뺭볃쫊폃힡랿뗄맘쾵쏜쟐ꎬ쟒뻟폐늻춬뗄쳘탔ꎬ룷ퟔ탎돉쿠뮥뛀솢뗄뺭볃늨뚯탎첬ꎬ웤뺭볃퓋탐ힴ뿶튲룷늻쿠춬ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚뷸탐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뫪맛뗷뿘쪱ꎬ뇘탫뾼싇뻟쳥뗄뗷뿘뛔쿳ꎬ쫇짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄붻틗솿ꎬ뮹쫇돇쫐짌욷힡햬뗄붻틗볛룱ꆣ늻뷶죧듋ꎬ뮹튪뾼싇떽솮ퟢ컝ꆢ뺭볃쫊폃힡랿짺닺폫쿻럑뛔짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄펰쿬ꎬ폐뗄럅쪸뗘쪵쪩뗷뿘ꆣ6ꎩ뛠뗷뿘튪쯘엤쳗쪹폃힡햬쫐뎡뫪맛뗷뿘튪쯘냼삨뫪맛뗷뿘뗄뛔쿳ꆢ랽쿲ꆢ쪱믺ꆢ쫖뛎뫍솦뛈뗈튪쯘ꆣ헢킩튪쯘쫇뛔힡햬쫐뎡뺭볃늨뚯쪵쪩뫪맛뗷뿘뗄믹놾ퟅ퇛뗣ꆣ뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쪵쪩뫪맛뗷뿘ꎬ뇘탫돤럖뾼싇짏쫶튪쯘ꎬ벴퓚쳘뚨뗄뗘쟸ꎬ쳘뚨뗄쪱볤ꎬ뛔쳘뚨뗄뛔쿳ꎬ춨맽쒳훖쫖뛎ꎬ퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏쿲쒳룶랽쿲쪵쪩뗷뿘ꆣ147
7 뷡싛폫햹췻짌욷힡햬쫇컒맺틚췲볒춥뗄훷튪쿻럑뫍춶욷횮튻ꎬ웤쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쿖쿳쫇짌욷힡햬릩쟳맘쾵쿠뮥ퟷ폃뗄튻룶뷡맻ꎬ뷶듓뇭쿳싛쫶웤늨뚯췹췹믡떼훂춶헟뫍쿻럑헟ퟷ돶듭컳뻶닟뫍헾뢮뗷뿘뗄뛌웚탐캪ꎬ죧맻늻쓜쏷컺힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄놾쳥뫍믺샭ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뻍믡퓚럇샭탔릩탨틲쯘뗄ퟷ폃쿂ꎬ닺짺틬뎣늨뚯ꎬ캣몦볒춥뫍릫쮾닆닺낲좫ꎬ펰쿬ꆰ뫍킳돇쫐ꆱ뗄붨짨ꎬ훘퓲캣벰맺쏱뺭볃뗄헽뎣랢햹ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뷼쓪살컞싛쫇맺볒믲돇쫐뫪맛닣쏦ꎬ뮹쫇웳튵ꆢ뻓뮧뚼쪮럖맘탄돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ힴ뿶ꆣ퓚뛾쪮쫀볍쒩웚뚫쓏퇇캣믺뗄쟽쪹쿂ꎬ맺쓚췢랿뗘닺샭싛뷧뾪쪼훰늽훘쫓랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄늨뚯퇐뺿ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ쿖뷗뛎뛔힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쾵춳퇐뺿좴캢뫵웤캢ꆣ놾컄뻍쫇퓚힡햬폫랿뗘닺쫐뎡맜샭릤ퟷ뗄쿖쪵웈쟐탨튪쿂뫍뎤웚뗄쪵볹믹뒡짏뷸탐뗄퇐뺿ꎬ쯼뛔틽떼힡햬뗄뫏샭춶뫍힡햬쿠맘닺튵뗄헽뎣랢햹ꆢ횸떼힡햬쫐뎡뗷뿘맜샭쪵볹ꎬ듙뷸컒맺힡햬쫐뎡돖탸ꆢ붡뾵랢햹뗄튪쟳ꎬ뻟폐훘듳뗄샭싛뫍쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ 좫컄ퟜ뷡놾컄퓚뛔맺쓚췢뺭볃늨뚯샭싛ꆢ랿뗘닺늨뚯샭싛뫍힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯퇐뺿쿖ힴ뷸탐ퟛ쫶뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ뷧뚨쇋돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쓚몭ꎬ횸돶쇋돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡평폚뛌웚릩룸좱랦떯탔ꆢ쫐뎡뛌웚탨쟳뻟폐튻뚨뗄떯탔ꆢ쫐뎡탅쾢늻뛔돆쟒폖쫜떽훮뛠틲쯘뗄늨뚯펰쿬ꎬ떼훂짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뻟폐뿍맛탔ꆣ싛쫶쇋힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쏨쫶랽램벰웤돉틲ꎬ첽쳖쇋짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯벰웤돉틲횮볤뗄맘쾵ꎬ늢뛔돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뚯솦톧뫍움볛샭싛폫랽램뷸탐쇋퇐뺿ꎬ좡뗃쇋틔쿂벸랽쏦뗄돉맻ꆣ1ꎩ쳡돶늢싛쫶쇋돇쫐뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿ꆢ랿뗘닺뺭볃뇤솿폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ놾컄룹뻝돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡폫돇쫐뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿ꆢ랿뗘닺뺭볃뇤솿맘쾵뗄샭싛럖컶ꎬ솢ퟣ폚컒맺뫪맛벰퇹뗣돇쫐뗄쫽뻝믹뒡ꎬ닉폃쫽뻝럖컶랽램ꎬ짨훃돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯횸뇪ꎬ틀뻝Granger볬퇩샭싛뫍랽램ꎬ볆솿럖컶쇋뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿ꆢ랿뗘닺뺭볃뇤솿폫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯횮볤뗄뮥뚯맘쾵ꎬ늢틔컒맺힡햬쫐뎡캪뛔쿳뷸탐쇋쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ2ꎩ쳡돶늢릹붨쇋믹폚횱뷓놾뮯싊뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖컶쒣탍뫍힡햬쫐뎡쪱탲뚯첬쒣탍뫍뫡뷘쏦뚯첬쒣탍ꆣ싛컄퓚럖컶쿖탐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쒣탍뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ룹뻝148
돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뚯솦톧샭싛럖컶힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쾵춳ꎬ퓚좷뚨쳡돶쇋횱뷓놾뮯싊볆쯣뫍볬퇩뗄쫽톧쒣탍틔뫳ꎬ듓짌욷힡햬쫐뎡ꆢ힡햬ퟢ쇞쫐뎡뮥뚯뗄뷇뛈ꎬ룹뻝횱뷓놾뮯싊럖컶돶짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄럹뛈ꆢ늨캻틔벰폫뿍맛볛횵뗄욫샫뗄돌뛈ꎬ늢뛔낸샽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뷸탐쇋쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ3ꎩ퓚럖컶쇋뛠룶힡햬쫐뎡쒣탍뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ뷨훺쯵풼쒣탍뗄믹놾쮼쿫ꎬ붫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄췢짺뫍쓚짺쏴룐탔틲쯘쓉죫떽돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡뗄뚯첬럖컶훐ꎬ틔샺쪷뫍쿖쪵뇤솿캪틀뻝ꎬ틽죫럇쪱훍뗷헻뫍쪱훍뗷헻뗄솽샠쒣쪽ꎬ릹훾쇋늻춬탎쪽뗄힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쪱탲뚯첬쒣탍ꎬ늢닉폃뛔쫽쒣탍럖컶쇋낸샽돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄쪱탲뚯첬늨뚯ힴ뿶ꆣ4ꎩ닉폃춬튻쪱볤뗣뗄뇤솿쇏ꎬ럖컶쯼쏇횮볤뗄뚨솿맘쾵ꎬ릹붨쇋돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡퓋탐ힴ뿶뗄힡햬쫐뎡뫡뷘쏦뚯첬쒣탍ꎬ늢틔컒맺15룶뢱쪡벶돇쫐캪퇹놾뷸탐쇋쪵횤럖컶ꆣ5ꎩ쳡돶쇋움볛돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯ힴ첬뗄돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄룅쓮벰웤쯣램쒣탍ꆣ컄훐퓚뛔DI폫CI횸쫽쿲솿뷸탐쫽뻝뒦샭늢붨솢헻뫏믹뒡틔뫳ꎬ틀뻝DI횵폫CI횵뗄뺫뛈럖컶ꎬ?웺훷맛에뛏뗄뒦샭랽램ꎬ내헕룷ퟔ훐컳닮뗄룟뗍뫍좨훘볆쯣샭싛폫쮼쿫ꎬ좷뚨룷헻뫏믹뒡쫽뻝쯹퓘짌욷힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢솿뗄좨훘ꎬퟮ뫳뛔웤뷸탐볓좨욽뻹ꎬ릹훾쇋힡햬짌욷쫐뎡늨뚯움볛뗄ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄좷뚨샭싛뫍쪵볊닙ퟷ쾵춳ꆣ틀뻝틔짏힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뛈솿뗄샭싛폫쒣탍ꎬ횸떼짨볆늢퇐훆쇋퇹뗣돇쫐랿뗘닺쫐뎡풤뺯풤놨쾵춳ꎬ룃쪵횤퇐뺿쿮쒿폚2004쓪6퓂춨맽쇋커몺쫐뿆벼캯풱믡ퟩ횯뗄돉맻본뚨ꎬ늢믱뗃커몺쫐뿆벼뷸늽뛾뗈붱ꆣ쒿잰틑춶죫쪵볊퓋탐뷗뛎ꆣ 뫳탸릤ퟷ뗄햹췻퇐뺿돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄쒿뗄늻쫇캪쇋쿻돽늨뚯ꎬ뛸쫇캪쇋쓜뚯뗘샻폃힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뿍맛맦싉ꎬ퇓뎤힡햬뺭볃랢햹뗄랱죙웚ꎬ쯵뛌쿴쳵웚ꎬ럀횹믲복죵럇헽뎣늨뚯뗄닺짺뫍삩듳ꎬ듙뷸힡햬폫랿뗘닺튵돖탸ꆢ붡뾵랢햹ꆣ쯤좻놾컄퓚돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯믺샭뫍뿌뮭ꆢ움볛짏쳡돶쇋튻킩첽쯷탔돉맻ꎬ떫평폚컒맺힡햬쫐뎡웰늽뷏췭ꎬ춳볆쫽뻝뗄랶캧늻맣랺ꎬ춳볆쫽뻝늻뺡맦랶ꎬ떼훂놾컄듦퓚ퟅ쯹닉폃쇏뗄쪱볤뿧뛈뫍뗘폲뿕볤럖늼짏늻뺡뫏샭뗄컊쳢ꎬ쟒뮹폐탭뛠컊쳢폐듽뷸튻늽뗄첽쳖뫍짮뮯퇐뺿ꆣ1ꎩ퓚쇏돤ퟣ뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뿉붫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뷸튻늽뮮럖캪짌욷힡햬릩룸늨뚯ꆢ탨쟳늨뚯ꆢ뻹뫢볛룱늨뚯ꆢ틬뎣늨뚯ꆢ돶ퟢ싊늨뚯ꆢ힡햬쫙쏼웚늨뚯ꎬ첽쳖쯼쏇149
뗄늨뚯믺샭뫍맦싉ꆣ2ꎩ힡햬탨쟳폐헦쪵탨쟳폫춶믺탨쟳횮럖ꎬ평듋튲뿉붫힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯럖캪샭탔늨뚯뫍럇샭탔늨뚯ꎬ듓돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡ퟜ뗄늨뚯훐ꎬ죧뫎쳞돽럇샭탔틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꎬ헒돶샭탔늨뚯뗄맬벣붫폐샻폚뿆톧횸떼힡햬뗄춶폫쿻럑ꆣ3ꎩ퓚샭탔늨뚯뇦컶뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ헾뢮죧뫎닉좡듫쪩ꎬ듙쪹돇쫐힡햬탨쟳믘맩떽헦쪵탔탨쟳쮮욽ꎬ놣횤힡햬쫐뎡뫏샭뗄늨뚯ꎬ틔쪵쿖짧믡풴뗄뫏샭엤훃뫍힡햬닺튵폫웤쯻닺튵킭뗷랢햹ꎬ헢튲쫇폐듽늻뛏짮뮯퇐뺿뗄컊쳢ꆣ4ꎩ헾닟듫쪩뗄쪵쪩뇘좻틽웰힡햬쫐뎡뗄쿬펦ꎬ틲듋뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿뮹탨뫏샭맛닢맺볒헾닟ꆢ돇쫐쿠맘램맦뗄돶첨뫍쿠맘틲쯘뗄뇤뮯쯹떼훂뗄돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡훷쳥탐캪벰웤뛔늨뚯뗄펰쿬ꎬ볬퇩뫍췪짆쯹퇐뺿뗄힡햬쫐뎡쪱탲뚯첬쒣탍뫍뫡뛏쏦쒣탍ꆣ5ꎩ쯦ퟅ컒맺돇쫐뺭볃춳볆쇏뗄췪짆뫍믽샛쫽뻝뗄퓶볓ꎬ샭싛쒣탍훐뗄폐킩뇤솿ꎬ죧쇷뚯죋뿚ꆢ쿠맘닺욷뗄볛룱뗈붫쓉죫떽쪵횤퇐뺿횮훐ꎬ틔퓶잿샭싛뛔쿖쪵뗄횸떼볛횵ꆣ6ꎩ퓚헫뛔쳘뚨돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뷸탐럖컶쪱ꎬ짌욷힡햬쫐뎡탅쾢뫍춳볆횸뇪뗄쓚몭틔벰힡햬욷훊ꆢ쟸캻뫍럾컱듦퓚닮틬탔ꎬ퓚쪵볊훐뮹펦떱룹뻝뻟쳥쟩뿶뛔쿖폐뗄쒣탍ꆢ랽램뫍폐맘뗄닎쫽뷸탐탞헽뫍늹돤ꆣ7ꎩ놾컄뗄퇐뺿뻖쿞폚맺볒뫍돇쫐뗄뫪맛닣쏦ꎬ뫜짙쳖싛돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯폫캢맛힡햬볛룱ꆢ쿖뷰쇷뇤솿횮볤뗄솪쾵ꎬ뛸힡햬쫐뎡쫇튻룶뗘쟸탔쫐뎡ꎬ틲듋돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡뗄뷸튻늽쾸럖ꎬ늢붫웤늨뚯맦싉뷸탐퇐뺿붫폐샻폚횸떼돇쫐뻓뮧뫍뎧짌뗄캢맛뻶닟믮뚯ꆣ8ꎩ돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯폫킴ퟖ슥ꆢ짌튵ꆢ릤튵뗈쫐뎡늨뚯틔벰웤쯼쪵컯놾뫍탩쓢놾쫐뎡늨뚯뗄맘쾵퇐뺿ꎬ쫐뎡늨뚯뛔뺭펪쫕틦뫍럧쿕뗄펰쿬ꎬ힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯쏴룐탔틲쯘폫춶쿖뷰쇷뇤솿횮볤뗄쇬쿈/훍뫳맘쾵뗈뚼뛔쿮쒿뻶닟뫍춶ퟩ뫏랽낸뗄훆뚨뻟폐햽싔탍뗄횸떼틢틥ꎬ폐샻폚뷸튻늽삩뿭놾퇐뺿뗄펦폃쇬폲ꆣ9ꎩ퓚뺭볃좫쟲뮯ꆢ튻쳥뮯뗄떱뷱짧믡ꎬ뾪럅탍뗄돇쫐힡햬쫐뎡폫좫맺쓋훁맺볊힡햬쫐뎡폐ퟅ잧쮿췲싆뗄솪쾵ꆣ돇쫐뫍컒맺짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯폫좫쟲뫍웤쯻맺볒짌욷힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯볤뗄맘쾵퇐뺿ꎬ튲믡볓짮뛔뻖늿힡햬쫐뎡늨뚯뗄샭뷢뫍짮죫퇐뺿ꆣ 뷡폯ꆪꆪ볓잿뫪맛뗷뿘ꎬ돤럖랢믓힡햬쫐뎡믺훆ퟷ폃볡돖힡랿쫐뎡뮯뗄믹놾랽쿲ꎬ탨튪늻뛏췪짆힡햬쫐뎡쳥쾵뫍놣헏훆뛈ꎬ맦랶150
힡햬쫐뎡탐캪ꎬ뷸튻늽삩듳쫐뎡ퟷ폃랶캧ꎬ돤럖샻폃뺺헹믺훆뫍릩쟳맘쾵살뗷뷚쫐뎡ꎬ룼듳돌뛈뗘랢믓쫐뎡퓚풴엤훃훐뗄믹뒡탔ퟷ폃ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ튪얬솦엠폽뫍맦랶랢햹힡햬쫐뎡훐뷩ퟩ횯뫍탐튵킭믡ꎬ췪짆쫐뎡맦퓲ꎬ쪹웳튵헦헽돉캪ퟔ훷랢햹ꆢퟔ컒풼쫸뗄램죋쪵쳥ꎬ퓶잿웳튵ퟔ컒뗷뷚쓜솦ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ튪퓚좫짧믡뎫떼ꆰ튪힡랿ꎬ헒쫐뎡ꆱ뗄맛쓮ꎬ뷸튻늽엠폽웰힡랿뗄쫐뎡뮯춶쳥훆뫍쫐뎡뮯쿻럑쳥훆ꆣ 캪뇜쏢쫐뎡쪧쇩ꎬ캬뮤짧믡뗄릫욽탔ꎬ뎫떼ꆰ뷚풼탍짧믡ꆱ뗄붨짨ꎬ랢믓돇쫐힡햬풴뗄ퟮ듳샻폃ퟛ뫏킧틦ꎬ듙뷸뿉돖탸랢햹뫍ꆰ뫍킳돇쫐ꆱ뗄릹훾ꎬ맺볒뫍쿠펦ퟩ횯튪듓뺭볃뫍릫릲샻틦뗈뷇뛈ꎬ볓잿뛔힡햬쫐뎡뗄럖컶ꎬ볓듳뛔뗍쫕죫볒춥뫍죵쫆좺쳥뗄힡랿놣헏솦뛈ꎬ뫏샭좷뚨뫍쪵쪩뗷뿘듫쪩ꆣ돇쫐헾뢮튪ퟰ훘뺭볃맦싉뫍쫐뎡맦싉ꎬ볈늻쓜풽캻ꎬ튲늻쓜좱캻ꎬ룼늻쓜듭캻ꆣ퓚돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡랢햹뫍늨뚯퇐뺿뫍뗷뿘쪵볹훐ꎬ늻뛏쳡룟웤볝풦돇쫐뺭볃뗄쮮욽뫍횴헾쓜솦ꎬ틔퓶잿힡햬쫐뎡뗄샭탔춶뫍샭탔쿻럑ꎬ럀횹훘떸ꆰ튻맜뻍쯀ꎬ튻럅뻍싒ꆱ뗄맖좦ꎬ듙뷸돇쫐짌욷힡햬쫐뎡돖탸ꆢ붡뾵ꆢ컈뚨랢햹ꆣ151
훂 킻놾톧캻싛컄쫇퓚떼쪦돂죙쟯뷌쫚쾤탄횸떼뫍죈돀맘탄쿂췪돉뗄ꆣ퓚싛컄뗄톡쳢ꆢ뿎쳢퇐뺿벰싛컄킴ꆢ탞룄뗄좫맽돌훐컞늻쓽뻛ퟅ떼쪦뗄탄톪ꎻ뷼쓪살ퟷ헟뗄쎿튻뗣뷸늽ꎬ쎿튻듎돉맻뻹폫쯻뗄탁쟚엠퇸럖늻뾪ꎻ쯻맄샸ퟷ헟퓚톧뿆랢햹뗄잰퇘퇐뺿훐ퟮ듳쿞뛈뗘랢믓훷맛쓜뚯탔뫍뒴퓬탔ꆣ떼쪦퓚뿆톧퇐뺿훐ꎬ퇏뷷뛸쟳쪵뗄훎톧첬뛈ꎬ맣늩뺫짮뗄톧쫵쮮욽ꎬ뒴퓬탔뗄톧쫵쮼쿫ꎬ붫쪹컒훕짭쫜틦ꆣ떼쪦퓚톧쾰짏ꆢ짺믮짏룸폨뗄맘탄쪹ퟷ헟짮쫜뷌폽뫍룐뚯ꎬ횵듋싛컄췑룥횮볊ꎬ뷷훂틔짮짮뗄킻틢뫍돧룟뗄뺴틢ꆣퟷ헟퓚퇐뺿맽돌훐ꎬ뗃떽뚡쇒퓆뷌쫚뫍커몺쫐랿닺맜샭뻖ꆢ쫐랿룄냬뗄훜쎯ꆢ훬횾잿뗈쇬떼뗄맘뮳폫횧돖ꎬ뷷훂틔짮짮뗄킻틢뫍돧룟뗄뺴틢ꆣ퓚싛컄퇐뺿뫍킴ퟷ맽돌훐ꎬ커몺쫐랿닺맜샭뻖릢뫪돏뒦뎤뫍폠뫬늩쪿벰웤쫐뎡뒦뗄웤쯻춬횾룸폨쇋헦돏뫏ퟷ폫죈쟩횸떼ꎬ뢶돶쇋듳솿뗄탄톪뫍몹쮮ꎬ퓚놾싛컄돉컄횮볊ꎬ뷷뇭쪾컞램폃퇔폯뇭듯뗄룐킻ꆣ퓚퇹놾돇쫐쫽뻝뗄닉벯뫍퇐뺿뿎쳢뗄쳖싛훐ꎬ커몺쫐헾뢮냬릫쳼ꆢ커몺쫐맦뮮ꆢ맺췁뻖ꆢ커몺쫐뾪랢냬ꆢ커몺쫐볆캯ꆢ커몺쫐춳볆뻖ꆢ커몺쫐컯볛뻖ꆢ커몺쫐닆헾뻖ꆢ죋쏱틸탐커몺쫐럖탐펪맜늿ꆢ커몺쫐랿룄캯뷰맜샭훐탄ꆢ커몺쫐췁뗘뒢놸훐탄룸폨쇋죈쟩뗄횸떼폫컞쮽냯훺ꎬ뷷퓚듋뇭쪾돏횿뗄킻틢ꆣ놾컄퇐뺿훐뮹뗃떽붨짨늿힡햬훐탄훷죎슽뿋뮪늩쪿ꆢ쟥뮪듳톧쇵뫩폱뷌쫚뗄죈쟩횧돖ꆢ횸떼뫍맘탄ꎬ퓚듋쿲쯻쏇뇭쪾훔탄뗄룐킻ꆣ퓚ퟷ헟릥뛁늩쪿톧캻웚볤ꎬ뗃떽쇋커몺쫐랿뗘닺맀볛볒ퟩ룷캻뷌쫚ꎬ틚랿췸춬죊뫍쯯뻾늩쪿뗄맄샸ꆢ맘탄폫냯훺ꆣ쇖늨ꆢ돂햼폂ꆢ돂샲뗈춬횾죏헦킭훺ퟷ헟뷸탐쇋탭뛠쇏헻샭릤ퟷꎬ캪놾컄뗄퇐뺿릤ퟷ뗬뚨쇋믹뒡ꎬ퓚듋뇭쪾평훔뗄룐킻ꆣ퓚듋ꎬ컒튪룐킻샮뷜뷌쫚ꆢ십뫗쇤뷌쫚벰컒킣췁쒾릤돌폫솦톧톧풺뗄웤쯻쪦짺뫍릫릲맜샭톧풺쪦짺풱릤룸폨뗄횧돖폫냯훺ꎬ룐킻컒킣퇐뺿짺풺뫍맜샭톧풺룸폨뗄맘탄폫냯훺ꆣ쳘뇰컒튪룐킻컒뗄뢸쒸ꎬ쯻쏇뛔컒뗄싾뎤ꆢ볨뿠쟳톧짺퇄뗄틽떼ꆢ샭뷢틔벰릤ퟷꆢ짺믮뗄횧돖뫍냯훺ꎬ헢킩쓑틔폃폯퇔뇭듯ꎬ놾컄쓽뻛ퟅ쯻쏇뗄튻욬낮탄ꆣퟮ뫳ꎬ컒튪룐킻컒뗄웞ퟓ헅죰랼뫍낮얮샮훇뛔컒뛠쓪싱춷쟳톧뫍릤ퟷ뗄쒪듳횧돖뫍샭뷢ꎬ룐킻쯽ퟷ캪뗚튻뛁헟쳡돶뗄놦맳틢볻ꆣ뷷틔듋컄뺴쿗룸쯹폐맘탄ꆢ맄샸뫍냯훺맽ퟷ헟뗄죋쏇ꎡ152
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뢽슼1 릥뛁늩쪿톧캻웚볤랢뇭뗄톧쫵싛컄[1] 샮뇳, 뚡쇒퓆뗈. 랿뗘닺뺰웸풤뺯훐DI뗄룄뷸벰CI뗄뺫뛈뇈뷏퇐뺿. 쾵춳릤돌샭싛폫쪵볹ꎬ2003,1ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ[2] 샮뇳, 뚡쇒퓆뗈. 돇쫐랿뗘닺쫐뎡ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄릹퓬폫럖컶. 뮪훐뿆벼듳톧톧놨ꎨ돇쫐뿆톧냦ꎩꎬ2003,1ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ[3] 샮뇳. 뛔뢴뫏춶쫕틦램좷뚨놾뮯싊뗄쮼뾼. 뮪훐뿆벼듳톧톧놨ꎬ2004ꎬ3, 25ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ[4] 샮뇳. 돇쫐뗘폲뿕볤럇샭탔췢퇓쪽삩햹뗄캣몦벰뚯틲럖컶. 탂쫀볍돇쫐랢햹햽싔싛첳. 놱뺩:훐맺퇔쪵돶냦짧, 2001,11[5] 샮뇳. 랿뗘닺쫐뎡풤놨풤뺯쾵춳붨솢맽돌훐뗄컳쟸벰펦힢틢뗄튪뗣. 훐맺랿뗘닺ꎬ2004, 2ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ[6] 샮뇳. 돇헲뿉돖탸랢햹뗄ퟛ뫏쒣쓢풤뺯퇐뺿. 훐맺죋뿚ꆢ풴폫뮷뺳. 뿉돖탸랢햹샭싛폫쪵볹뾯ꎬ2006ꎬ2ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ[7] 샮뇳뗈. 킡돇헲뿉돖탸랢햹릫욽탔움볛뚨솿퇐뺿. 훐맺죋뿚ꆢ풴폫뮷뺳ꎬ2005ꎬ1ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ[8] 샮뇳뗈. 탩쓢솪쏋췆맣킡돇헲붨짨벼쫵. 붨짨뿆벼ꎬ 2005ꎬ,(4)ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ[9] 샮뇳, 돂샲. 믹폚ANN뗄킡돇헲뿉돖탸랢햹움볛퇐뺿. 짺첬뺭볃ꎬ2005ꎬ10ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ[10] 뚡쇒퓆, 샮뇳. 랿뗘닺쫐뎡풤뺯뗷뿘쾵춳뗄릹훾벼쫵튪뗣벰쇷돌짨볆. 쾵춳릤돌샭싛폫쪵볹ꎬ2002,4ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ[11] Ding Lieyun , Li Bin. The Application of ANN the Real Estate Early WarningSystem . Asian Real Estate Society the Fifth Annual Conference in Beijing, 2002.ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ[12] 돂햼폂, 샮뇳. 믹폚Web뫍쫽뻝닖뿢뗄랿뗘닺쫐뎡풤뺯풤놨쾵춳퇐뺿. 믹붨폅뮯, 2005, 26(4)ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ[13] 돂샲, 샮뇳. 믹폚ANN뗄랿뗘닺쫐뎡붻틗솿풤닢퇐뺿ꎬ믹붨폅뮯, 2005, 26,(4)ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ[14] 돂햼폂, 샮뇳. 럇뛔돆탅쾢쿂벼쫵틆뗄돉놾럖컶. 뿆톧뷸늽폫뛔닟ꎬ2005, 10ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ[15] 췵뫬붭, 샮뇳. 죡탔죋솦풴맜샭퓚뿆벼훐뷩ퟩ횯훐뗄펦폃첽쳖. 뿆벼퇐뺿맜163
샭, 2004, 2ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ[16] 샮뇳. 횱뷓놾뮯램훐ퟔ폐놾쫕틦싊뗄쯣램첽쳖. 쫽톧뗄쪵볹폫죏쪶(슼폃)ꎨ쫰쏻떥캻ꎺ뮪훐뿆벼듳톧ꎩ164
뢽슼2 릥뛁톧캻웚볤닎볓뗄뿆퇐쿮쒿[1] ퟷ캪훷튪닎폫죋횮튻췪돉쇋맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿ꆰ돇쫐랿뗘닺풤뺯쾵춳퇐뺿ꆱ(79870055)[2] ퟷ캪벼쫵뢺퓰죋횮튻닎폫훷돖쇋커몺쫐랿닺뻖쿮쒿ꎺ커몺쫐랿뗘닺쫐뎡풤뺯풤놨쾵춳쪵횤퇐뺿ꎬ2004쓪10퓂믱뗃커몺쫐뿆벼뷸늽뛾뗈붱ꎬ쒿잰틑뾪쪼랢믓커몺쫐랿뗘닺쫐뎡풤뺯풤놨릦쓜[3] ퟷ캪훷튪췪돉죋닎볓쇋ꆰ쪮컥ꆱ훘뗣뿆벼릥맘쿮쒿ꆪꆪꆶ뻓힡쟸폫킡돇헲붨짨맘볼벼쫵퇐뺿ꆷ뿎쳢쇹ꆰ킡돇헲쫔뗣ꆢ쪾랶릤돌ꆱ훐뗄쳢퇐뺿쓚죝횮튻ꎺ킡돇헲붨짨쿈뷸쫊폃벼쫵췆맣믺훆퇐뺿ꎨ2002BA8061306ꎩꎬ2004쓪3퓂춨맽퇩쫕[4] ퟷ캪훷튪췪돉죋닎볓쇋ꆰ쪮컥ꆱ훘뗣뿆벼릥맘쿮쒿쳢퇐뺿쓚죝횮튻ꎺ킡돇헲뿉돖탸랢햹ퟛ뫏움볛폫볠닢쾵춳퇐뺿ꎨ2002BA807B10ꎩ165
