ؿaԷྍა൧ӆࣉೆҦ 1ۄԽ <ᅋေ> Էྍؓ൧ӆࣉೆ֥႕ཙॖၛ๙ݖࢆ֮ӮЧބҵၳ߄ൌགྷbೂݔϜԷྍა3 %৳༢ఏটđପહсಖթᄝೆ3 %֥նཬაࢆ֮ӮЧ֥ӱ؇ࠣҵၳ߄ӱ؇֥ܱ༢໙ีbЧ໓࣮ਔ3 %ೆनޙ่֥ࡱđ֤ԛԷྍੱაࠢᇏ؇ڵཌྷܱđંᆣਔ3 %่ࣩࡱb <ܱՍ> 3 % ࣉೆ Էྍࣩ ᄝ൧ӆࣜ࠶ᇏđࣩᆚ൞ປಆ֥đᄵື၂֥नޙࢲݔ൞ࡎ۬֩Ⴟш࠽ӮЧაनӮЧđӌഅ০֩Ⴟ0đط֒ᇅ؇aඌࣉ҄֩ၹؓଖུӌഅ֥ӮЧࢲܒࠇӁᇕোӁള႕ཙൈđࡎ۬ь߶ொनӮЧđཨٮᆀഺჅሇ၍֞ᆃུӌഅ൭ᇏđൈđࡎ္۬߶ொਸ਼၂ུӌഅ֥ш࠽ӮЧđૌ֥ሧჷሇ၍֞ᆃུӌഅ൭ᇏđؿაԷྍᇶေ൞๙ݖೂ༯֥ਫ਼ࣥ႕ཙࡎ֥۬ğః၂đ๙ݖӮЧࢆ֮႕ཙࡎ۬bෛሢ۽ၜ֥۪ྍđӁ֥ш࠽ӮЧ༯ࢆđՖطđ۪ྍ۽ၜ֥ӌഅॖၛၛ֮Ⴟљ֥ӌഅ֥ш࠽ӮЧ֥ࡎ۬ԛ൲ሱ֥࠭ӁđીႵ۪ྍ۽ၜ֥ӌഅь߶Фࠪԛ൧ӆbൈđਸ਼ຓ၂ᇕ౦ঃ္ॖၛԛགྷđࠧીႵ۪ྍ۽ၜ֥ӌഅ๙ݖଆٟࠇࠆ֤ؓ൭֥ྸॖᆣđটൌགྷሱ࠭ш࠽ӮЧ֥ࢆ֮bఃؽđ๙ݖӁҵၳ߄႕ཙࡎ۬bԷྍ൞Ӂҵၳ߄֥ᇗေჷಅđડቀਔܤग़؟ҪՑa؟֥ླđՖطᄝԷྍ֥Ӂഈӌഅ߶ࠆ֤োර؎ֹ໊֥đၹطॖၛཟܤग़෬ေཌྷ֥ؓۚࡎ۬bఃđ๙ݖህ০႕ཙࡎ۬bᆩ്Ӂ֥ᇗေหྟ൞ຓ҆ྟđ۽ၜԷྍaӁэ۪֥ᆩ്Ⴕॖିoຓၮp֞ؓ൭൭ᇏđၹՎđીႵᆩ്Ӂಃ֥Ќđӌഅؿ֥Ӯݔь߶бࢠಸၞֹႮؓ൭֤֞đՖطؿ֥ӮЧ֤҂֞ҀӊđࣉطીႵӌഅ߶Ֆ൙ؿđᆜ۱ഠ߶֥ඌԷྍ؇߶նն༯ࢆđ෮ၛđؓᆩ്Ӂಃ֥Ќьႋᄎطളđህ০ь൞ቋႵ৯֥۽ऎᆭ၂đህ০ູӌഅࠆ֤ކم֥؎ֹ໊ิ܂ਔࡔൌ֥ᇅ؇уৈđၹՎህ০эӮູӌഅૌሔᇯ֥ؓའbఃඹđ๙ݖѓሙაӁ࡙ಸ႕ཙࡎ۬b ၂aࣉೆaԷྍაԛ Էྍᆀ๙ݖ۽ၜԷྍॖၛࢆ֮Ӂ֥ш࠽ӮЧđ֒Էྍ֥ӮЧޓཬൈđॖၛಪູ൧ӆ൞ॖࣩᆚ֥đᆃൈđႚႵቋྍඌ֥ӌഅьॖၛࡼࡎ۬ק໊Ⴟఃӌഅ֥ш࠽ӮЧᆭ༯đࡼᆃུӌഅۊԛ൧ӆbDasgupta& Stiglitzč1981Ď֥ॖࣩᆚ֥ଆؓՎ໙ีࣉྛਔٳ༅b 1aࣩᆚ่ࡱ༯֥Էྍ ࡌקğč1ĎીႵ൬ೆིႋĠč2ĎčҀӊĎླ౷ཌ൞֩ྟ֥Ġč3Ďૄࡗۯൈࡗ؍TđࣼႵ၂ӌഅࣉೆĠč4ĎᄝඌԷྍ֥ݖӱᇏđඌࣉ֥҄бੱč္ࣼ൞ֆ໊эӮЧ༯ࢆ֥бੱĎაೆᄹӉੱЌӻଖᇕݦඔܱ༢֥नޙđᆃ၂ሑૌӫᆭູ໗קሑđაൈࡗܱb Էྍ֥၂۱ᇗေ৯ਈ൞ླ֥ᄹӉđࡌקླ֥ᄹӉੱູ҂э֥mđQіൕttൈख़֥Ӂԛđ൧ӆԛౢࡎູ۬p(Q)đఃྙൔູğ t−εmt p(Q)=σQe σ,m,ε>0 č 1Ď tt 1ቔᆀࡥࢺğۄԽđଳđ1966୍ളđഈݚҍࣜն࿐࢝൱đѰൖള֝ഽbЧ໓൞uҦྟྛູvčࣜ࠶ܵԛϱഠđ2005Ďࢫ
Վԩđ1/ε൞ླྟb ॉ੮ᄝଖ၂ൈख़၂ӌഅປӮԷྍѩࣉೆđ҂ാ၂Ϯྟđૌಪູᆃ၂ൈख़t=0đԷྍӌഅೆ֥ܥקӮЧູFđѩđᄝࣉೆൈھӌഅ֥ඌ൞ቋݺ֥đఃш࠽ӮЧູCbՎൈđ00ࣉ၂҄ࡌק൧ӆᇏႵnࡅӌഅđᄝt=−Tൈࣉೆ֥ӌഅđఃш࠽ӮЧູCđೆ֥ܥ−TקӮЧູFbgսіඌࣉ֥҄бੱč္ࣼ൞ֆ໊эӮЧ༯ࢆ֥бੱĎđᆞೂnބTđ−TgTg္൞ଽളႿଆᆭᇏbᄝt=0ൈࣉೆ֥ӌഅႨඌCđᄵᄝ໗קሑൈđC=Ceb0−T0hіൕᄝԷྍᇏೆ֥ܥקӮЧ֥ᄹࡆੱđဢ္൞ଽള֥bႮႿF൞t=0ൈೆ֥0−hTӮЧđᄵခሢ໗קሑđF=Feb −T0ᄝt=0ൈđႵnࡅӌഅđᄝࣉೆ֥ൈख़t=−iTđֻi୍֥ӌഅčthe ith youngest firmĎigT−ihT֥ш࠽ӮЧູCeđೆ֥ܥקӮЧູFebခሢ໗קሑđᄝ༯၂۱Էྍؿള֥ൈ00−gThTࡗt=Tđྍࣉೆ֥ӌഅđఃш࠽ӮЧູCeđೆ֥ܥקӮЧູFebطᄝt=Tൈđቋ00֥܄ඳči=n−1Ď߶ؿགྷđఃቋႪč০ቋն߄ĎҦ൞ԛđᆃൈđ൧ӆഈಯႵnࡅӌഅđ෮ၛđᄝ၂ൈख़ॖၛܴҳ֞đ൧ӆഈሹ൞Ⴕnࡅӌഅđᆃུӌഅၛ٤ކቔ֥ٚൔྛđ֒ಖđૌ҂߶֩ਈֹٳ۩൧ӆđၹູૌ֥ඌ҂đӮЧ҂b۷ࣉ၂҄đૄ၂ӌഅ߶թᄝnT୍đหљֹđᄝt=0ൈࣉೆ֥ӌഅđࡼ߶ᄝnTൈख़ԛđՖطđھӌഅࡼ߶ᄝ௹ຬթࠃൈࡗູnT֥ࠎԤഈቓԛሱ֥࠭थҦb ၛഈࠧ൞ૌေ࣮֥Ӂြቆᆮ֥ࠎЧหᆘbࢤ༯টđૌࡼษં໗קሑ༯֥٤ކቔनޙđCіൕᄝൈख़tൈ֥ቋݺඌđ္ࣼ൞ඪđᄝൈख़tш࠽ӮЧቋ֥֮ඌđൈđtᄝൈख़tೆؿ֥ܥקӮЧູFbູਔࡥ߄đࣉ၂҄ࡌקൈࡗႮ҂৵࿃֥ࡗۯܒӮđૄ၂t۱ࡗۯ֥Ӊ؇ູθđ္ࣼ൞ඪđ֒ൈࡗՖt֞t+θൈđܥקӮЧഈശđш࠽ӮЧ༯ࢆđܥקӮЧ֥ഈശ؇აш࠽ӮЧ֥༯ࢆ؇Ⴎ༯ൔथקğ F−F=θG((C−C)/θC) č 2Ď t+θttt−θt+θՎԩđG൞ᄹ֥֥۬ݦඔđაൈࡗܱđG(0)=0đG(∞)=∞bՎൈಪູൈࡗ൞৵࿃֥đѩθ→0đᄵႮč 2Ďൔख़߂֥ԷྍшࢸӮູೂ༯ྙൔğ (dF/dt)F=G(g) č 3Ď tttՎԩ g≡−(dC/dt)/C č 4Ď ttt−hTᆞೂૌ෮ࡌק֥໗קሑđg္აൈࡗܱđႮႿF=Feđܣ(dF/dt)F≡hđt−T0ttՖطԷྍшࢸॖཿӮೂ༯ྙൔğ
(dF/dt)F≡h=G(g) č 5Ď ttႮč 4Ďൔॖᆩđgൌ࠽ഈսіਔඌࣉ҄ੱđᄝקၬݺᆃ၂ҕඔުđૌॖၛࣉ၂҄ษંӌഅ֥ӁਈथҦđࡌקᄝ၂ൈख़൧ӆഈႵnࡅӌഅđ҂ാ၂Ϯྟđॉ੮ֻi୍֥iµӌഅđః০ቋն߄֥ӁਈथҦđQіൕః၂ൈख़֥ӁਈđQіൕఃӌഅ֥Ӂਈč္iiiiiiµµࣼ൞Q=QĎđC൞෮૫ਢ֥ш࠽ӮЧđᄵࡼ࿊ᄴQđ[p(Q+Q)−C]Q∑iiij≠iiiµµቋնčᇿၩğp(Q+Q)սі֒Ӂԛູ(Q+Q)ൈ֥ࡎ۬Ďđࡼč 1Ďൔսೆॖ֤đ၂ࢨii่ࡱູğ ii 1−εQ/Q=C/p(Q) č 6Ď Վԩ n−1i Q=Q č 7Ď ∑i=0 P P 0 PT P2T 0 T 2T 3T 4T 5T 6T t −igTP=peP=pčؓႿiT≤t≤(i+1)TĠi=0,1,2,...Ď iT0TiT1 ॉ੮֒t=0ൈđԷྍӮۿਔđCіൕԷྍӌഅ֥ш࠽ӮЧđᄵૌॖࡼč 6Ďൔࡆ0ሹđ֤֞ೂ༯่ࡱğ n−1igT n−ε=Ce/p č 8Ď 0∑i=0Ֆč 8Ďൔॖၛुԛđᄝࡗč0,TĎࡎ۬൞໗ק֥đླಏၛm/ε֥؇ᄹӉč֩ൔ1Ďb֒t=Tൈđ֩ൔč 8ĎӮູೂ༯ྙൔğ n−1−gTigT n−ε=Cee/p č 9Ď 0∑i=0Ֆč 9Ďൔॖၛुԛđᄝ༯၂۱ԷྍӮۿൈख़đ္ࣼ൞t=TൈđႮႿඌࣉ֥҄႕ཙđ൧ӆࡎ۬ӯགྷ҂৵࿃༯ࢆ֥൝đၹՎđႮč 1Ďॖ֤đ൧ӆླࡼ҂৵࿃ֹഈശđႮႿૌॉ੮֥൞໗קሑđܣᆃ၂གྷའᄝૄ၂۱Էྍൈख़iTči=0,1,2,…Ď߶ᇗگؿളč1
ބ2Ďb ູਔ۷༥ୈֹۀওԛनޙሑđૌླေቓ၂ུ࣍රđࣉ၂҄ࡌקೆ֥ܥקӮЧᄝt=0ൈޓཬđ֒ಖቋࡥֆ֥ٚൔ൞ॉ੮ೂ༯౦ྙğF=0bᄝᆃᇕ౦ঃ༯đ൧ӆ൞ປಆࣩᆚ֥đ0ᄝ෮Ⴕ֥tğp=Cč֒Էྍ൞৵࿃֥౦ঃ༯đ၇ಖೂՎĎbсྶᆷԛ֥൞đᄝᆃᇕ౦ྙtt༯đӌഅ֥ඔਈn൞ཋ֥b Ֆၛഈંඍॖ֤đ֒Fޓཬൈđခሢ໗קሑđnࣼ߶ޓնđԩႿनޙሑ֥၂ӌഅ0߶࿊ᄴᄝሱ֥࠭ӮЧ҂ӑݖ൧ࡎ֥ࡗࣜႏb෮ၛđᄝt=0ൈࣉೆ֥ӌഅđࡼ߶ᄝ൧ࡎࢆ Q QT Q0 0 T 2T 3T 4T 5T 6T t i(m+g)T/ε(t−iT)m/εQ=QeQ=QečؓႿiT≤t≤(i+1)TĠiT0tiTi=0,1,2,...Ď 2 ֞ఃш࠽ӮЧԩԛđခሢ໗קሑđఃԛൈࡗႋູnTđၹՎđૌ֤֞іղൔğ −gnTpe=C ( 10) 00сྶᆷԛđᄝ໗קሑൈđg൞၂۱Ⴕཋ֥ᆞඔb࠺ğv≡nTđčᄵvіൕਔ၂۱ӌഅᄝ൧ӆഈ֥ളթൈࡗĎđᄵč 10Ďൔіૼđ֒F→0ൈđv→0čࠧьn→∞ൈ၇ಖೂՎĎb 0ෛሢ၂۱Ⴛ၂۱֥൧ӆनޙሑ֥Ӂളđӌഅoሼઔ֧pර֥ࣉೆބԛđԷྍ֥؇сྶቀܔ֥ॹđҌିაᆃ၂གྷའބཾ၂ᇁbᄝૌ֥࣍ර༯đࣉ၂҄ࡌקԷྍӌഅ০֥གྷᆴູ0đᆃဢđૌࣼॖၛࡹ৫ᄝt=0ൈࣉೆ֥ӌഅ֥0০่ࡱb ᄝ၂ൈख़đֻi୍֥ӌഅ֥০ੀॖၛіൕູğ 2iiiiiii p(Q)Q−CQ=p(Q)Q−p(Q)[1−εQ/Q]Q=p(Q)εQ/Q č 11Ď ᄝt=0ൈđሹӁԛູQđ൧ࡎູpđᄵࡼč 6Ďൔսೆč 11Ďൔđ֤֞t=0ൈࣉೆ֥00
ӌഅ֥০ੀູğ 2 p(1−C/p)Q/ε č 12Ď 0000ᄝࡗč0,TĎđ൧ࡎಯЌӻ҂эč6-1ĎđӁԛᄹӉ֥бੱູm/εč6-2ĎđՖطđᄝࡗč0,TĎഈđھӌഅ෮ࠆ֤০֥์གྷᆴູğ T2Qp(1−c/p)2−(r−m/ε)t−(r−m/T000 p(1−c/p)edt=Q(1e) č 13Ď 0000∫εε(r−m/ε)0ᄝt=Tൈđ൧ࡎ༯ࢆđླഈശđՖطᄝൈख़Tđሹླູğ (m+g)T/εQ=Qe T0൧ࡎູğ −gTP=pe T0ࡼഈඍਆൔսೆč 12Ďđ֤֞t=0ൈࣉೆ൧ӆ֥ӌഅᄝt=Tൈ֥০ູğ −gTpe−gt2(m+g)T/ε0(1−C/pe)Qe 000εဢđᄝࡗčT,2TĎđࡎ۬Ќӻ҂эđሹླᄹӉੱ֥Ϥٳбູm/εđ෮ၛđᄝՎࡗᇏđt=0ൈࣉೆ֥ӌഅࠆ֤֥০ᅼགྷ֞t=0ൈđఃᆴູğ −(g+r)T−(r−m/ε)Tpe−gT2(m+g)T/ε0(1C/pe)Qe[1e]/(rm/ε) 000εၹՎđᄝࡗ(i−1)T,iT)đھӌഅ෮ࠆ֤֥০ᅼགྷ֞t=0ൈđఃᆴູğ −(g+r)T−(r−m/ε)Tpe−igT2i(m+g)T/ε0(1C/pe)Qe[1e]/(rm/ε) 000εࡆሹھӌഅթࠃ֥n۱ࡗ֥০གྷᆴđѩಞ֩ႿFđ֤֞0০่ࡱ֥іղൔğ 0−(r−m/ε)Tn−1[1−e]−i(g+r)Ti(m+g)T/ε−igT2 ee(1−C/pe)=F/PQ č 14Ď ∑00000ε(r−m/ε)i=0൙ൌഈđࡌקFޓཬđՖطTაvޓཬđᄝڸᇏૌ֝ԛđؓႿޓཬ֥Tބvđč 14Ď0ൔॖ࣍රູğ 24gv(m+g) [−r];F/pQ č 15Ď 0002εεՖč 15ĎൔॖၛुԛđေЌᆣ൧ӆनޙ֥໗קሑđсྶေ(m+g)/ε>rđ္ࣼ൞ඪđԷྍ֥০сྶԉٳ֥նbॉ੮֞č 1Ďൔބč 10Ďൔđč 15ĎൔӮູೂ༯ྙൔğ 24gv(m+g)(1−ε)/ε1/ε [−r];FCσ č 16Ď 002εεᆃ൞၂۱٤ӈႵႨ֥ྙൔđၹູč 16Ďൔ֥ႷшႮࣜ࠶༢ᇏຓള֥ҕඔčԚ่ࡱĎ
ቆӮb ࢤ༯টđૌႨč 10Ďൔࡼनޙ่ࡱč 8Ďіൕູğ −gnt−gv1e1e n−ε=≡ č 17Ď gTgTe−1e−1ؓ( 17)ൔࣉྛ࣍රčڸĎॖ֤ğ 2vgv−(gv)/2v1−gv/2−ε;;[] 2TgT+(gT)/2T1+gT/2ࠇ vgTgvgT[+];ε(1+);ε T222Ֆط 2 gv;2εT č 18Ď ቋުđૌࡼٳ༅ඌࣉ֥҄໗קбੱ൞ᄸဢФथק֥bᇿၩ֞ᄝૄ၂۱ԷྍӮۿൈख़đ൧ࡎބࣉೆӌഅ֥ш࠽ӮЧ֥бੱ൞ཌྷ֥đՖč 14ĎൔॖၛुԛđູԷྍೆ֥ܥקӮ−gTЧაሹ൬ೆ֥бੱ္৫ႿԷྍ֥ൈࡗbᄝࡗč0,TĎđૌႵp=peބT0(m+g)T/εQ=QeđՖطđ໗קሑିЌӻđᄵ༯ൔӮ৫ğ T0 h≡(dF/dt)/F=−g+(mg)/ε č 19Ď tt৳༢č 5Ďൔॖ֤đ໗קሑ༯֥ඌࣉ҄ੱ൞༯ൔ֥ࢳğ G(g)=−g+(m+g)/ε č 20Ď ෮ၛđ໗קሑ༯֥ඌࣉ҄ੱ൞Ⴎmđεၛࠣथקඌࣉ҄шࢸčG(.)Ď֥ҕඔथקđ৫ႿൈࡗބԚ่ࡱFaCb 00གྷᄝđૌॖၛሹࢲ໗קሑ༯֥नޙđဢđॉ੮t=0đՎൈđႮଆथק֥эਈູpa0ihavaTagaQaQ[i=0,1,…(n-1)]đٳљႮč 1Ďač 7Ďač 10Ďač 15Ďač 18Ďač 19Ď00ބč 20Ď֤֞bԢਔεaramࠣथקඌԷྍшࢸčG(.)Ď֥ҕඔຓđFބC္൞ຓള۳00ק֥b 2aܪ؎༯Ӂြࠢᇏ؇აԷྍनޙ ၂۱ᇗေ֥໙ี൞ğӁြࠢᇏ؇ބԷྍੱᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢൞હĤູਔ߭ճᆃ۱໙ีđࡼభඍקၬv=nTսೆč 18Ďൔॖ֤ğ 2 gn;2ε/T ( 21) ࡥֆֹࢃđ၂۱Ӂြଽթࠃ֥ӌഅඔਈ֥֚ඔّ႘ਔھӁြ֥ࠢᇏӱ؇đč 21ĎൔіૼđԷྍੱč౨ᇿၩđԷྍੱႋູ1/TĎაࠢᇏӱ؇ӯڵཌྷܱܱ༢b۷ູ၂Ϯ֥іൕم൞
Ӂြ֥ࠢᇏбੱđؓႿૌ֥ଆটඪđॖၛಪູӁြࠢᇏ؇ࣼ൞ቋ࣍Էྍ֥ӌഅᄝᆜ۱൧ӆᇏ෮ᅝ֥ཧ൲ٺحbՖč 6Ďބč 10Ďॖ֤ğ 0 Q/Q;gv/ε č 22Ď ࡼv=nTࠣč 21Ďൔսೆ֤ğ 102 Q/Q;(2gT/ε) č 23Ď č 23ĎൔဢіૼđԷྍੱაࠢᇏ؇ӯڵཌྷܱܱ༢b 2ؽaԷྍაӁҵၳ߄-ࠎЧଆJohn č1993Ď֥ܱႿԷྍაӁҵၳ߄֥ଆॉҳਔႮਆ۱ӌഅࣉྛࢨ؍Ѱᒮđֻ၂ࢨ؍đਆ۱ӌഅൈࣉྛԷྍč๙ݖR&DĎđᄝໃট֥ଖ၂ൈख़đఃᇏ၂۱ӌഅࠆ֤ਔӮۿĠᆃൈđֻؽࢨ؍षਔđીႵࠆ֤Ӯۿ֥ӌഅ࿊ᄴ֥R&DᅞĠቋުđೂݔਆ۱ӌഅࣉೆਔ൧ӆđᄵૌࡼࣉྛࡎࣩ۬ᆚb Ⴕਆ۱ڄགᇏྟđ০ቋն߄֥ӌഅAaBbૄ၂ӌഅᄝ၂ֆ໊ࡗۯଽ֥ଖ၂ׄ࿊ᄴ၂ᇕమᄝ֥ӁbAᄝaࣉྛ࿊ᄴđBᄝ1Ēbࣉྛ࿊ᄴđൈđ҂൞၂ϮྟđࡌקAᄝB֥ቐшđਆ۱ӌഅ۲ሱ҂ކଔֹൈ࿊ᄴమᄝ໊֥ᇂb ᄝࣉೆᆭభđૄ۱ӌഅсྶ๙ݖӮۿֹൌീR&D࠹߃টؿૼ၂ᇕྍӁčđૌࡼR&Dඌіൕູၘᆩ֥aѻؿૼ(གྷ)ݖӱčၩሢ֞ؿૼປӮൈ֥ᆷඔ֩րൈࡗĎb ၹطđӌഅAࣉྛؿૼ֥௹ຬൈࡗ൞1/hđᄝՎđhіൕڄགੱčhazard rateĎbτіൕӌഅAAࣉྛؿૼ֥ൈࡗđࡌקR&DીႵຓ҆ྟđՖطτބτ൞৫֥đR&Dषൈđૄ၂ӌABഅႵ၂۱ܥקӮЧFđൈđູਔЌᆣR&Dӻ࿃ࣉྛđᄝᆜ۱ݖӱᇏđႵ၂۱҂э֥ӻ࿃܂ႋӮЧzđࡌקFaz൞۬ᆞ֥b R&D֥ଢѓӁ൞ౢԣ֥člocation-specificĎđၹطđ၂֊၂۱ӌഅ࿊ᄴਔ၂۱మᄝ໊֥ᇂđR&Dࣉӱࣼ૮ሙਔ၂۱หק֥Ӂᇕb ࡌקૄ۱ӌഅᆺԷྍ၂ՑđᄝЧଆᇏđૌࡼ҂۬ٳؿૼčinventionĎބԷྍčinnovationĎđ္ࣼ൞ඪđࣉྛؿૼ֥ӌഅൈ္ࣼᄝࣉྛԷྍbࣉ၂҄ࡌקđ၂֊၂۱ӌഅၘࣜࣉྛਔԷྍđളӁԷྍӁ֥ш࠽ӮЧ൞ޚק֥ѩ֩Ⴟ0b ࡌק൧ӆᇏ֥ཨٮᆀ൞၂۱৵࿃čcontinuumĎđૄ۱ཨٮᆀ༟ߋഅxđx֥ᆴनᄋֹٳ҃ᄝֆ໊ࡗۯᇏbིႨႮࠊл؇ਈđၹՎđ֒ׄx֥ཨٮᆀ֞ׄaܓઙӁൈđི֥2Ⴈാ൞y(x−a)đఃᇏy൞۬ᆞ֥đՖطđ֒Ӂ֥છࡎູpđཨٮᆀ൙ൌഈ֥ᆦԛ2ູp+y(x−a)bૄ၂۱ཨٮᆀؓႿૄ၂ֆ໊֥അ֥ླႵ၂۱Ќࡎ۬sđࡌקsቀܔ֥ۚđՖط෮Ⴕཨٮᆀ߶ܓઙھᇕഅč္ࣼ൞ඪđs۬նႿ3yđᆃЌᆣਔ၂۱؎ᆀ҂ܵᄝહ໊ᇂđཨٮᆀᄝھ؎ᆀ֥ԛࡎ༯჻ၩܓઙĎđၹՎđིႨݦඔіൕೂ༯ğ 2⎧s−(p+y(x−a)qq≥1aa U(a,q)= č 24Ď ⎨a0 ః⎩ 2 ՎԩࢹਔTirole(1988),The Theory of Industrial Organization,(MIT Press, Cambridge, MA)֥ଆb
q൞അa֥ᇉਈđཌྷႋ֥đӌഅB֥Ӂི֥Ⴈݦඔ္ॖοč 24Ďൔဢקၬb aਆӌഅ֥R&D࿊ᄴקၬਔѰᒮनޙđၹູR&Dݖӱ൞࠺ၫྟ֥đܣື၂ཌྷܱ֥थҦ൞đ၂۱ӌഅੱ༵ࠆ֤Ӯۿđਸ਼၂ӌഅࡼႵೂ༯࿊ᄴğč1Ď൞ڎ࿃ჰট֥R&D࠹߃Ġč2ĎࡼఃR&D୭৯ሇཟਸ਼၂അĠč3ĎᇔᆸఃR&DݖӱbႮႿؓႿਆ۱ӌഅ֥ૄ၂໊ؓᇂđႵ၂ؓࡎ۬აᆭؓႋđ෮ၛđ໊ᇂЧദࣼקၬਔ၂۱Ղᅞ֥ሰѰᒮປૅବनޙb 3ӌഅA֥০ੀູčච؎่ࡱ༯Ďğ d2 π=(y/2)(1−a−b)(1+a/3−b/3) č 25Ď Aಸၞ֤֞đ؎ӌഅčᄝՎπݣ֥ၩන൞ğӌഅAੱ༵ؿӮۿѩӮູື၂֥؎ᆀĎᄝׄača໊֥ᇂᄝࡗ֥ቐ϶шĎ֥০ੀູğ m2 π=s−y(1−a) č 26Ď A෮ၛđࡌקીӮۿᆀ࿃֥ؿ࠹߃đӌഅA֥௹ຬ০ູčrູ์གྷੱĎğ ∞−rtmd Eπ=e[Pr(τ≤t<τ)π+Pr(τ≤tandτ≤t)π č 27Ď AABAAB∫A0−Pr(t<τ)z]dt−F A๙ݖؓൈࡗࡗۯ֥࠹ෘđႮഈൔॖ֤ğ h2 Eπ=[r(s−y(1−a))+hy(1−a−b) č 28Ď A322r+3rh+2rhz2 ×(1+a/3−b/3)]−−F r+h aԷྍაӁҵၳ߄नޙ-R&Dೆनޙٳ༅ ྸ؟ః֥Ӂҵၳ߄ଆѩીႵЇݣӌഅՖؿ֞ࣉೆ֥ൈࡗđૄ۱ӌഅсྶॉ੮Ղ؎აච؎༯҂֥০bޓಸၞᆩ֡đᄝᇏׄđՂ؎ӌഅ֥০ղ֞ቋնđᄝච؎่ࡱ༯đਆ۱ӌഅᆺႵ໊Ⴟਆ؊ׄԩđ০Ҍղ֞ቋնb෮ၛđॉ੮֞ᄠൈ֥؎০֥ᇗေྟđӌഅࡼ൫ሱ࠭ौ࣍ᇏׄĠߐᆭđӌഅࡼᄀটᄀᇗ൪ࠆ֤؎০֥ࠏ߶b ᄝR&Dݖӱᇏđӌഅ߶ࣜӈֹᇗྍܙሱ֥࠭R&D࠹߃đ္ࣼ൞ඪđ۳קR&Dඌđೂݔఃӌഅੱ༵ࠆ֤Ӯۿđ۵ࣉᆀ൞ڎߎླေ࿃R&DࣩbೂݔAၘࣜӮۿđBၩ്֞ච؎༯֥০҂ቀၛҀӊ࿃ࣉྛR&D֥ӮЧđᄵBࡼԛࣩb൙ൌഈđೂݔFބzቀܔ֥նđᄵᆺႵ၂ࡅമᇀႵൈીႵӌഅିܔࣉྛR&Db 1yଁี 1. ೂݔ(h(s−)−rz)≤FđᄵીႵӌഅषR&Db r(r+h)4ᆃޓಸၞՖֆ၂ӌഅ֥௹ຬ০֥࠹ෘᇏ֤ԛbᄝᆃᇕ౦ঃ༯đӌഅࠧьႚႵਔቋݺ໊֥ᇂđࠆ֤ਔ؎ֹ໊đ္҂ି௹ຬ֤֞ᆞ֥০b ଁี2. ೂݔ 3 ഈ
1y1y(h(s−)−rz)≤F≤(h(s−)−rz) r(r+2h)4r(r+h)4ᆺႵ၂ࡅӌഅषR&DđѩԩႿᇏׄbᆃဢ֥नޙᄝᆺႵ၂۱ӌഅࣉೆ֥భิ༯൞ື၂֥b ๙ݖଁี1ၛࠣ࠹ෘਆ۱ӌഅࣉྛR&Dൈ֥ቋն௹ຬ০đॖ֤֞ഈඍଁีbଁี2૭ඍ֥൞ğč1Ď֒ᆺႵ၂۱ӌഅषR&Dѩି࿊ᄴ০ቋն߄֥Ӂᇕোč໊ᇂĎđᄵھӌഅॖࠆ֤ᆞ֥௹ຬ০Ġč2Ď֒ਆ۱ӌഅषR&Dđਆ۱ӌഅᄝᇏׄҌି֤֞ቋն০ൈđ௹ຬ০ູڵbՖطđᆺႵ၂۱ӌഅିࣉೆb ֒ਆ۱ӌഅିࠆ֤ᆞ֥০ൈđଆэ֤۷Ⴕ౿b ଁี3 ೂݔ 125hy1y(−rz)≤F≤(h(s−)−rz) r(r+h)144r(r+2h)4ᄵनޙູğa=b=1/2đໃିੱ༵ࠆ֤Ӯۿ֥ӌഅ߶ᇏ؎ఃR&Dݖӱb ᆣૼğ ∞−rtEπ(b=1/2)=e[Pr(τ≤t)πd−Pr(t<τ)z]dt−F č1Ď AAAA∫0ࢳഈඍіղൔđ֤ 125hyEπ(b=1/2)=(−rz)−F≤0 č2Ď Ar(r+h)144∴ ֒BၘࣜᄝᇏׄԩࣉೆđᄵA֥ቋն௹ຬ০٤ᆞđAࡼԛb ᇿၩ֞ೂݔb=1/2đᄵAࡼ࿊ᄴᄝa=1/2ԩളӁčဢđೂݔa=1/2đBࡼ࿊ᄴᄝb=1/2ԩളӁĎđb=1/2đᄵӌഅA֥০ູğ m2π=s−y(1−a) č3Ď A ބ d2π=(y/2)(1/2−a)(5/6+a/3) ֒a∈[0,1/2] č4Ď AՖطđؓႿ෮Ⴕ֥a∈[0,1/2] m∂πA=2y(1−a)>0 č5Ď ∂aᆃіૼđ؎০ᄝa=1/2ൈቋۚđᄝa=0ൈቋ֮b ဢđؓႿ෮Ⴕ֥a∈[0,1/2] d∂π−y2A=[5+12a+4a]<0 č6Ď ∂a24ᆃіૼđච؎০ᄝa=0ൈቋۚđᄝa=1/2ൈቋ֮b္ࣼ൞ඪđᄝa=0đච25hymd؎০ቋۚđປಆ؎০ቋ֮ba=0đᄵπ=s−yđπ=đᆃіૼđAA144
mdPr(τ≤τ)π=1/2(s−y)>25y/144=πčΘs>3yĎđՖطđӌഅA۷༟ߋၛ1/2֥ABAAࠏ߶ࠆ֤؎ֹ໊đѩ၂֊Aੱ༵ԷྍӮۿđᄵ߶ࡼӁק໊ᄝӌഅBԛ໊֥ᇂđhy2္ࣼ൞ඪđA֥ק໊༯ඍ҂֩ൔӮ৫ğz≥(1/2−a)(7/6−a/3)bّݖটඪđ֒2rhy2z≥(1/2−a)(5/6+a/3)Ӯ৫ൈđೂݔBੱ༵ԷྍӮۿđӌഅAࡼԛb෮ၛđૄ۱2rӌഅ֥ᅞॢࡗᇏЇݣਔೂ༯Ҧğೂݔໃ൮༵ԷྍӮۿđᄵԛbᄝᆃဢ่֥ࡱ༯đA֥ቋႪ࿊ᄴ൞a=1/2đၹູ؎০ᄝᇏׄቋۚb ਸ਼ຓđၹčູ1Ďb=1/2đᄵAࡼ࿊ᄴa=1/2Ġč2Ďӌഅᄝ۲ٚ૫౦ঃ֥ؓӫྟĠᄵa=b=1/2൞Ӂק໊ᇏ֥၂۱ବनޙb ᇿၩ֞đ۳קၩ֥bđᄵթᄝ၂۱ađӌഅBᄝAੱ༵ࠆ֤Ӯۿ่֥ࡱ༯ᇏ؎ఃdR&Dđࣉ၂҄ٳ༅đπ=1/2y൞ቋն֥ච؎০č֒ਆ۱ӌഅٳљ໊Ⴟਆ؊ׄԩൈĎđAmᄝᆃဢ่֥ࡱ༯đ1/2(πa=0)>y/2đᆃіૼđ֒ӌഅAႚႵ؎ֹ໊đᄝ໊ᇂቋҵA֥౦ঃ༯ča=0Ďđః০ۚႿච؎༯֥ቋۚ০b္ࣼ൞ඪđႮႿč1ĎෛሢӌഅAཟᇏׄԩौđປಆ؎০൞۬ᄹ֥Ġč2ĎFބzЌᆣਔೂݔAੱ༵ԷྍӮۿđᄵBࡼԛĠA֥࿊ᄴ൞࣐ਈ༯ඍ҂֩ൔӮ৫ğ1/2−a<1/2−bčࠧA1/2۷࣍ĎbّᆭđB֥࿊ᄴၧಖb ∴ aაbᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢ᆺି൞a=b=1/2 ഈඍଁี֤ᆣb Ⴎഈඍ֥ٳ༅ૌᆩ֡đၹູປಆ؎֥০൞ቋ֥ۚđ෮ၛૄ၂ӌഅ൫൮༵֞ղᇏׄđѩଁี3่֥ࡱӮ৫đᄵᄝR&Dݖӱᇏໃିੱ༵ࠆ֤Ӯۿᆀࡼ߶ԛbཁಖđᄝᆃᇕ౦ঃ༯đປಆ؎бࣇࣇᇅԛ၂ࡱҵၳ߄֥Ӂ۷Ⴕ་ႄ৯b၂֊ܥקӮЧԩႿഈඍთđᄵӁҵၳ߄ࡼ൞ቋཬ֥b 125hyଁี4 F≤(−rz)đᄵໃੱ༵ࠆ֤Ӯۿᆀ҂߶ԛ൧ӆđႵਆᇕr(r+h)144ॖି֥࿊ᄴğč1Ď࿃ఃؿ࠹߃Ġč2Ďڿэؿ࠹߃đѩࡼӁק໊ႿჹԷྍᆀӁ֥ਸ਼၂؊b ᆣૼğ 125hyೂݔF≤(−rz)đᄵᄝሰѰᒮᇏđ҂ܵ൞࿃ؿ࠹߃đߎ൞ڿэؿr(r+h)144࠹߃đໃੱ༵ࠆ֤Ӯۿᆀ֥০൞ᆞ֥b ഈඍଁี֤ᆣb ڸğ ࡌקFޓཬđՖطTაvޓཬđૌ֝ԛđؓႿޓཬ֥Tބvđč 14Ďൔॖ࣍රčູ 15Ď0ൔğ −(r−m/ε)Tn−1[1−e]−i(g+r)Ti(m+g)T/ε−igT2č 14Ď ee(1−C/pe)=F/PQ ∑00000ε(r−m/ε)i=0
24gv(m+g)č 15Ď [−r];F/pQ 0002εε č 14Ďൔॖіൕູğ −(r−m/ε)T−n[r+g−(m+g)/ε]T2−n[r+g−(m+g)/ε]TpQ[1−e]1−eC(1−e)000[+− −[r+g−(m+g)/ε]T2−[r+g−(m+g)/ε]T(r−m/ε)1−ep(1−e)0−n[r+g−(m+g)/ε]T2C(1−e)0]=F čĎ 0−[r+g−(m+g)/ε]Tp(1−e)0ᄎႨč 1Ďൔބč 10ĎൔđčĎൔэູğ −KT−Kv−Kv−Kv1234[1e]1e1e1e−2gv−gv[+e2e] KTKTKTεK1−e1(1−ε)/εgv(1−ε)/εFCe00=F/PQ= čĎ 0001/ε(1−ε)Վԩ K≡r−m/ε 1K≡r+g−(m+g)/ε 2K≡r−g−(m+g)/ε 3K≡r−(m+g)/ε 4གྷᄝđK൞҂э֥đᄵؓႿޓཬ֥vބT(ൈv/Tޓն)Ⴕğ −Kv21eKv−(Kv)/v1−vK/2;=() −KT2eKTTKTTKv(1−vK/2)(1+TK/2);(1−vK/2) čĎ Tࡼ()ႨႿ()֥ٚওݼᇏđॖ֤ğ K−Kv341e1e1e−2gv−gv+e2e −KTT−KT21−e2v−gv−gv−2gv−gv;(1+e−2e)−(K+Ke−2Ke) 234T2T2vv−gv−2gv−gv;(1−e)−(K+Ke−2Ke) 234T2T
2vv2222222;(gv−gv/2)−(K(−2gv+2gv)−2K(−gv+gv/2)) 34T2Tčၹູ K+K−2K=0Ď 23432vv222;g(1−gv/2)−(−2gvK+2gvK+(2K−K)gv) 3434T2Tg4v4(m+g);−r) čĎ 2TεႨčĎࠣčĎࠧॖ֤č 15Ďൔ Tactics of R&D,innovation and market entry Chunhui Gan [Abstract] Innovation can affect market entry through reducing cost and we associate innovation and R&D together,there is necessarily a problem of the relationship of the size of R&D input and the degree of reduced cost and this paper,we studied the equilibrium conditions of R&D input, drew the conclusion of negative correlation of innovational frequency and the degree of convergence,demonstrated the conditions of R&D contest. [Key words] R&D:entry;innovation contest
