2006쓪뗚12웚죋솦놾믘놨싊뇤뮯폫쫕죫닮뻠:ꆰ십첫킧펦ꆱ벰웤헾닟몬틥3헅뎵캰ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:퓚럖컶죋솦놾믘놨싊뇤뮯뛔쫕죫닮뻠펰쿬뗄믹뒡짏,놾컄퓋폃돩퇹뗷닩쫽뻝맀볆쇋뷌폽믘놨싊벰웤쯦뷌폽돌뛈뫍쫕죫쮮욽뗄뇤뮯ꆣ뷡맻랢쿖,훐맺쒿잰뗄뷌폽믘놨싊죔좻늻룟,ퟜ쳥살뾴,쎿퓶볓1쓪뷌폽,룶죋쫕죫믡퓶볓4134%;춬쪱,뷌폽믘놨싊뮹햹쿖돶쯦쫕죫쮮욽퓶볓뛸퓶볓뗄쟷쫆,ퟮ룟95%쫕죫헟뗄뷌폽믘놨싊쫇ퟮ뗍5%쫕죫헟뗄2놶뛠ꆣ뷌폽믘놨싊뇤뮯뗄ꆰ십첫킧펦ꆱ틢캶ퟅ쫕죫닮뻠늻뛏삩듳쫇쫐뎡쪧냜뗄닺컯,퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,튪쯵킡쫕죫닮뻠,죋솦놾춶뇘탫룼뛠뗘쿲쟮죋쟣킱ꆣ맘볼듊:뷌폽믘놨싊ꆡ쫕죫닮뻠ꆡ십첫킧펦튻ꆢ틽ꆡ퇔훐맺퓸뺭쫇쫀뷧짏럖엤ퟮ릫욽뗄맺볒횮튻,떫쯦ퟅ쫐뎡뮯룄룯훰늽짮뮯,뺭볃퓶뎤뗄돉맻풽살풽쓑틔놻쯹폐죋욽뻹럖쿭,폈웤쫇20쫀볍90쓪듺훐웚틔살,룶죋쫕죫닮뻠놻톸쯙삭듳ꆣ훐맺쒿잰틑뺭돉캪쫀뷧짏쫕죫닮뻠뇈뷏퇏훘뗄맺볒횮튻,헢튻컊쳢헽퓚뛔뺭볃뗄붡뾵랢햹릹돉짋몦ꆣ쫕죫닮뻠폫뺭볃랢햹횮볤뗄맘쾵튻횱쫇뺭볃톧퇐뺿뗄믹놾컊쳢횮튻ꆣ뎤웚틔살,뺭볃톧볒퓚룃쇬폲훐뷸탐쇋듳솿뗄퇐뺿ꆣ뿢쓹퓧퓚1955쓪뻍룹뻝랢듯맺볒뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿쇋쫕죫닮뻠뗄뇤뮯맦싉,쳡돶쇋훸쏻뗄떹U탍쫕죫럖엤볙쮵ꆣ헢튻볙쮵죏캪,퓚뺭볃랢햹맽돌훐,쫕죫닮뻠믡쫗쿈쯦ퟅ쫕죫쮮욽퓶볓뛸훰붥삩듳,퓚듯떽튻뚨돌뛈뫳,쫕죫닮뻠믡쯦샍뚯헟쫜뷌폽돌뛈뗄쳡룟뛸쯵킡늢훰붥쪵쿖쫕죫뻹뗈뮯ꆣ듓맺볊뺭퇩살뾴,쫕죫럖엤ퟟ쿲뻹뗈뮯뗄헛뗣틲맺볒뗄뻟쳥쟩뿶뛸닮틬뫜듳ꆣ폐킩맺볒믡뫜뿬뿧맽헛뗣뛸쪵쿖쫕죫럖엤뗄뻹뗈뮯,죧죕놾ꆣ떫튲폐맺볒쪼훕컞램풽맽쫕죫럖엤늻뛏삭듳뗄뷗뛎ꆣ샽죧,튻킩삭쏀맺볒퓚20쫀볍70쓪듺훐웚죋뻹GDP뻍듯떽쇋1000쏀풪,떫평폚쎻폐쓜릻죃듳뛠쫽죋럖쿭랢햹뗄돉맻,퓚뺭샺쇋튻뛎뺭볃룟쯙랢햹쪱웚뫳,헢킩맺볒뫜뿬쿝죫쫕죫럖엤늻릫ꆢ짧믡쎬뛜볓뻧ꆢ뺭볃랢햹뮺싽뗄뛱탔톭뮷횮훐ꆣ훐맺쒿잰헽뒦폚뺭볃룟쯙퓶뎤뗄랢햹맽돌횮훐,2005쓪죋뻹GDP틑듯1700쏀풪;춬쪱,쫕죫닮뻠튲퓚톸쯙삭듳,믹쓡쾵쫽틑듯0147ퟳ폒(훐탻늿샭싛뻖,2005),뎬맽맺볊짏쫕죫닮뻠뗄뺯뷤쿟쮮욽ꆣ퓚뺭볃뿬쯙퓶뎤맽돌훐죧뫎폐킧뗘뛴훆쫕죫닮뻠늻뛏삩듳뗄쟷쫆틑뺭돉캪훐맺뺭볃랢햹맽돌뇘탫죏헦쏦뛔뗄훘듳쳴햽ꆣ튻냣살쮵,쫕죫닮뻠늻뛏삭듳뗄풭틲뿉틔놻맩캪헢퇹솽샠,튻샠캪럇쫐뎡틲쯘뗄펰쿬,쇭튻샠캪쫐뎡놾짭틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ듓럇쫐뎡탔틲쯘살뾴,헾닟좱쪧뫍듭캻ꆢ쫐뎡램맦늻붡좫뗈뚼믡쪹쫕죫닮뻠삭듳ꆣ듓쫐뎡놾짭살뾴,샍뚯솦풴뗄쫐뎡엤훃뇘좻쪹룟죋솦놾듦솿뗄룶죋뗃떽뷏룟뗄쫕죫,뗍죋솦놾듦솿뗄죋뗃떽뷏뗍뗄쫕죫,듓헢룶틢틥짏쮵,죋솦놾늻욽뗈쫇쫕죫닮뻠뗄훘튪살풴ꆣ놾컄훷튪퇐뺿뫳튻샠틲쯘폈웤쫇죋솦놾틲쯘퓚쫐뎡믺훆쿂죧뫎폫쫕죫닮뻠쿠맘솪ꆣ3ꆡ헅뎵캰,훐맺짧믡뿆톧풺죋뿚폫샍뚯뺭볃퇐뺿쯹,폊헾뇠싫:100732;뗧ퟓ탅쿤:zhangjw@ꆣퟷ헟룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋쯹쳡돶뗄놦맳틢볻,컄퓰ퟔ뢺ꆣ뿗ꆢ쇵뺸춬톧퓚컄쿗쫕벯폫헻샭랽쏦ퟶ쇋듳솿릤ퟷ,룐킻쯽쏇쯹쳡릩뗄냯훺ꆣ59
헅뎵캰:죋솦놾믘놨싊뇤뮯폫쫕죫닮뻠ꆰ:십첫킧펦ꆱ벰웤헾닟몬틥죋솦놾쓜릻뗃떽쫐뎡믘놨뻶뚨쇋죋솦놾늻욽뗈쫇쫕죫닮뻠뗄횱뷓살풴ꆣ춬쪱,죧맻죋솦놾믘놨퓚늻춬뗄죋좺훐쫇늻춬뗄,퓲죋솦놾믘놨뗄닮틬붫믡볓듳죋솦놾뗄쫕죫럖엤킧펦,듓뛸웰떽볓뻧쫕죫럖엤늻뻹뗈뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뷌폽쫇ퟮ뎣폃튲쫇ퟮ죝틗뗃떽뗄죋솦놾뇤솿,놾컄훷튪퇐뺿뷌폽믘놨싊뇤뮯벰웤뛔쫕죫닮뻠뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚럖컶죋솦놾믘놨싊뇤뮯뛔쫕죫닮뻠펰쿬뗄믹뒡짏,놾컄퓋폃2004쓪좡뗃뗄ퟮ탂돩퇹뗷닩쫽뻝,붫퓚맀볆뷌폽믘놨싊벰웤쯦뷌폽돌뛈뫍쫕죫럖늼뗄뇤뮯믹뒡짏,뷒쪾쫕죫닮뻠삩듳뗄쫐뎡믺샭,듓뛸캪죧뫎쯵킡쫕죫닮뻠쳡릩뿉릩닎뾼뗄헾닟붨틩ꆣ놾컄쪣폠늿럖뗄뷡릹낲업죧쿂:뗚뛾늿럖캪쿠맘퇐뺿컄쿗ퟛ쫶,뗚죽늿럖캪샭싛ꆢ랽램폫쫽뻝쮵쏷,뗚쯄늿럖뻟쳥맀볆뷌폽믘놨싊벰웤쯦뷌폽돌뛈뗄뇤뮯,뗚컥늿럖뻟쳥맀볆뷌폽믘놨싊쯦쫕죫쮮욽뗄뇤뮯,뗚쇹늿럖캪훷튪뷡싛벰웤헾닟몬틥ꆣ뛾ꆢ쿠맘퇐뺿컄쿗ퟛ쫶ퟷ캪놻퇐뺿뗃ퟮ뛠뗄죋솦놾뇤솿,뷌폽폫쫕죫뗄맘쾵쪼훕쫇틽웰뺭볃톧볒탋좤뗄훘튪컊쳢,폐맘뷌폽쫐뎡믘놨뗄퇐뺿컄쿗뿉캽몹얣돤뚰ꆣ폐맘훐맺룶죋뷌폽믘놨싊랽쏦뗄퇐뺿튲튻횱쫇샍뚯뺭볃쇬폲뗄죈뗣컊쳢,뫜뛠죋틑뺭뛔2002쓪횮잰뗄퇐뺿뷸탐쇋뇈뷏쿪쾸뗄ퟛ쫶,샽죧,쯯횾뻼(2004),Zhangetal(2002)뫍Brauwetal(2004)뗈,헢샯틲듋훷튪뛔2002쓪틔살뗄탂뷸햹ퟷ볲튪믘맋,뇭1ퟜ뷡쇋헢킩퇐뺿쯹쪹폃뗄쫽뻝ꆢ랽램뫍훷튪뷡싛ꆣퟛ뫏틑폐뗄퇐뺿뿉틔뾴돶,쯤좻릤뻟뇤솿램(IV)ꆢHeckman톡퓱쒣탍ꆢGMM랽램ꆢ쪹폃쮫냻첥쫽뻝뗄만뚨킧맻(FixedEffect)쒣탍뗈튻킩탂랽램뾪쪼놻폃폚뷌폽믘놨싊뗄퇐뺿횮훐,떫듳뛠쫽뗄맀볆죔좻톡퓱쪹폃뒫춳뗄OLS랽램ꆣퟜ뗄살뾴,폐맘훐맺뷌폽믘놨싊뗄맀볆뷡맻틲랽램늻춬듦퓚ퟅ뷏듳닮틬,샽죧Li뫍Luo(2004)쪹폃GMM랽램뗃떽뗄돇헲ퟜ쳥뷌폽믘놨싊룟듯15%,떫쫇쪹폃OLS랽램맀볆뗃떽뗄뷌폽믘놨싊믹놾짏캬돖퓚5%ꆪ8%횮볤,헢폫맺볊짏웤쯻맺볒쿠뇈뒦폚뷏뗍뗄쮮욽ꋙ;춬쪱,훐맺룶죋뷌폽믘놨싊퓚룄룯뾪럅틔살돊늻뛏짽룟뗄쟷쫆,쟒뷌폽믘놨싊퓚탔뇰ꆢ컄뮯돌뛈ꆢ뗘쟸뫍탐튵볤듦퓚ퟅ닮틬ꆣ듳뛠쫽뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷,얮탔뗄뷌폽믘놨싊룟폚쓐탔,돇헲뷌폽믘놨싊룟폚얩듥,춬쪱듳톧뷗뛎뗄뷌폽믘놨싊룟폚룟훐횮잰뗄믘놨싊ꆣퟷ캪죋솦놾볛횵뗄쫐뎡탅뫅,뷌폽믘놨싊뫍샍뚯솦쫐뎡뇤뮯쏜쟐쿠맘,쇋뷢뫍헆컕뷌폽믘놨싊뇤뮯뛔폚룼뫃뗘샭뷢샍뚯솦쫐뎡뇤뮯뻟폐훘튪틢틥ꆣ좻뛸,튪ힼ좷쇋뷢쳘뚨쫐뎡쳵볾쿂뗄뷌폽믘놨싊늢늻쫇튻볾죝틗뗄쫂쟩,짵훁폐퇐뺿죏캪뷌폽뛔쫕죫뗄펰쿬룼뛠뗘쫇캪샍뚯솦쫐뎡ꆰ즸톡ꆱ룟쯘훊릤죋쳡릩쇋탅뫅,뛸늢럇쫇뷌폽횱뷓쳡룟쇋샍뚯짺닺싊(Weiss,1996)ꆣ떱좻,듳뛠쫽뗄퇐뺿횤쏷뷌폽늻뷶뻟폐ꆰ즸톡ꆱ뗄탅뫅ퟷ폃,뛸쟒튲쓜횱뷓쳡룟샍뚯짺닺싊,헢쪵볊짏튲쫇죋솦놾샭싛뗄훷튪쓚죝ꆣ떫쫇,튪뿋럾믲뷢뻶뷌폽믘놨싊닢솿훐쯹폶떽뗄쯹폐컊쳢ꋚ벸뫵쫇늻뿉쓜뗄,틲듋,뗃떽뷌폽믘놨싊ꆰ튻훂탔ꆱ맀볆뗄퇐뺿뻍돉쇋뺭볃톧퇐뺿훐튻룶뎤쪢늻쮥뗄컊쳢ꆣ횻튪샻폃쇋뷏탂뗄쫽뻝믲헟쫇퓚랽램짏ퟷ쇋죎뫎룄뷸믹놾짏뚼쓜캪헢튻컊쳢쳡릩탂횪쪶ꆣ뫍틑폐뗄듳뛠쫽퇐뺿쿠샠쯆,놾퇐뺿뗄훘뗣늢럇튪첽쳖뷌폽믘놨싊맀볆뗄ꆰ튻훂탔ꆱ컊쳢,뛸쫇룼뛠뗘틀뾿뎣맦럖컶벼쫵늢쪹폃ퟮ탂뗄돩퇹뗷닩쫽뻝,퇐뺿훐맺뷌폽믘놨싊뗄ퟮ탂뇤뮯,럖컶뷌폽ꋙ쒿잰쫀뷧욽뻹뷌폽믘놨싊캪1011%,퇇훞캪916%,훐뗍쫕죫맺볒뗄뷌폽믘놨싊퓚1112%ꆪ1117%ꆣ닎볻Psacharopoulos(1994)뫍Trostel,etal.(2002)ꆣꋚ튻냣살쮵,뷌폽믘놨싊맀볆훐믡폶떽헢퇹죽샠삧쓑믲헟컊쳢:뗚튻샠뻍쫇쪡싔뇤솿뗄컊쳢,퓚컞램뿘훆폫뷌폽쿠맘뗄웤쯻죋솦놾뇤솿죧쓜솦뇤솿뗈뗄쟩뿶쿂,폐맘뷌폽믘놨싊뗄OLS맀볆뻍쫇폐욫뗄;뗚뛾샠쫇닢솿컳닮컊쳢,뷌폽뇤솿춨뎣쫇룹뻝뷌폽돌뛈늢뷡뫏톧훆맀쯣뛸살,헢늻뿉뇜쏢뗘믡듸살닢솿컳닮컊쳢;뗚죽샠쫇뷌폽믘놨뗄틬훊탔컊쳢,볲떥뗘쮵,뻍쫇쫕죫랽돌훐뷌폽믘놨싊쫇럱놻퓊탭쯦룶쳥뛸랢짺뇤뮯ꆣ컞램뿋럾죽샠컊쳢펰쿬뗄맀볆퓚쒳훖돌뛈짏살쮵뚼믡퓬돉폐욫맀볆ꆣ60
2006쓪뗚12웚뇭ꆡ1ꆡꆡꆡ2002쓪틔살폐맘훐맺룶죋뷌폽믘놨싊퇐뺿뗄훷튪돉맻ퟛ쫶ퟷ헟뫍쪱볤쫽뻝랽램틲뇤솿웤쯻훘튪뿘훆뇤솿훷튪뷡싛웫솼쫩,2005훐뗷닩맺붡뾵뫍펪퇸탍Heckman톡퓱쒣쓪쫕죫쎿(CHN뗷S)(돆닩볲횰튵훜뫍릤쯹ퟷ폐킡훆쪱샠쫽탍ꆢ돇뫳쫐웚뷌훁폽쫕틦20쫀볍80쓪듺ퟔ90쓪듺돵폐쯹쿂붵,CHNS)1993쓪틔뫳닅돊짏짽쟷쫆ꆣ샮쮹ꆤ톩뫕쯉뿋ꆢ햲쒷훐맺돇헲,2004춥쫕죫폫뻓쏱볒닩ꆣ횧돶뗷뻖늿릤뻟뇤솿램쓪쫕죫뢸(LIV);뾼싇뷌폽틬볆돌훊ꆣ탔Mincer랽폐쒸훆쫕샠죫탍ꆢ뗘쟸ꆢ쯹듳톧뷌폽믘놨싊11%;OL죋쓜쿂욫S맀솦믡,IV떼맀훂볆뷌짏폽욫믘;뫶싔룶욫킱ꆣ놨쿲짏튦럥쿈맺,헅몣2004쓪폐맘웳,2004튵쇷뫍뚯얩뗷듥닩샍ꆣ뚯솦뎣맦ퟮ킡뛾돋램(OLS맀볆)ꆣ킡쪱릤뮧엠통벮ꆢꆢ횰믩튵틶뗈ꆢ샺ꆢ돇얩헲듥뷌뷶폐폽믘놨싊8%ퟳ폒,뛸4%ퟳ폒ꆣ뫮럧퓆,2004훐ퟔ훎맺쟸15뷸룶탐쪡쫐탍뗷퇐뗄뗤OLS맀볆쓪쫕죫엠통ꆢ뷌폽샠탍뗈얩듥뷌폽쫕틦싊캪3166%ꆣ샮쪵ꆢ뚡주,1995뫍2003돇1999쓪닩헲힡뮧돩퇹뗷OLS맀볆쓪쫕죫떳풱짭럝ꆢ쯹헲뷌폽믘놨1990쓪2143%,1(닩볲돆떥캻펯폐훆ꆢ캻뿷ힴ뿶ꆢ떥돇CHIP뗷)ꆣ뗈탩쯹쓢퓚뇤닺솿튵ꆢ뗘쟸쫕99틦9싊쓪듳캪폚811%;룟뗈뷌폽뗄싊ꆣ돵뗈뷌폽뗄쫕틦Yang,Dennis1988뫍1995쓪Tao,2005CHIP뗷닩ꆣOLS맀볆퓂쫕죫떳럝풱뗈탩ꆢ짙쓢쫽뇤쏱솿ퟥꆢ쪡돇쫐뷌폽믘놨싊퓚1988쓪뫍1995쓪듓311%쳡룟떽511%ꆣFleisher,1994쓪믘맋탔쓪Wang,2005돩퇹뗷닩뛾램뷗뛎ퟮ킡뛾돋(2SLS)죫쫕컄룯웚볤;쿞ꆢ쿂쿧쓪웚볤1뗄96짏9ꆪ1972쓪컄룯톧쓪쿞ꆣ쟷쫆횮잰뷌폽믘놨싊돊쿂붵폽쫕틦;컄싊룯닅뫳폐횱쯹떽믘1짽990ꆣ쓪듺뷌Li,Liu,etc,22005쫐00쮫2냻쓪첥훐뗷맺닩5돇ꆣO만L뚨S,킧쮫맻냻쒣첥탍ퟩ퓂쫕죫돇,탩쓢쫐뇤ꆢ믩솿틶ꆣힴ뿶뗈OLS맀볆돇헲뷌폽믘놨싊캪8맀볆ꆣE만14뚨%킧,뛸쪹폃쮫냻첥쫽뻝ퟩGLS틔벰IVF싊쿂붵훁맻쒣탍쪹뗃뷌폽믘놨217%ꆣ쪡싔쓜솦믲볒놨춥싊놻놳룟뺰맀킧ꆣ맻믡떼훂뷌폽믘LiandLuo,뗚뛾싖돇헲힡뮧GMM맀볆,2SLS킡쪱릤쏱ퟥꆢ뢸쒸뷌폽쮮GMM맀볆뷡맻쿔쪾,훐맺돇헲2004돩쓪퇹뗷닩(1995맀볆욽뗈ꆣ뷌폽믘놨싊ퟜ쳥룟듯15%ꆣCHIP)ꆣBrauwand2000쓪훐맺6쪡Heckman톡퓱쒣킡쪱릤헽쪽엠통ꆢ쪡럝;뢸뷌폽믘놨싊캪614%,쓪쟡죋ꆢRozelle,2004뗷닩ꆣ탍쒸뷌폽뗈ꆣ잨욽틆뗄죋헟뻟틔폐벰뷏킡룟톧믘틔놨짏싊뷌ꆣ폽쮮Maurer2Fazio,2000쓪돇헲샍OLS맀볆킡쪱릤떳풱ꆢ믩틶ꆢ뻓힡뷌폽믘놨싊쯦쫐뎡뮯뫍뺺헹MandDinh,뚯닩솦쫐뎡헻뫏뗷뗘N,2004뾵ힴꆢ웳튵쯹폐훆ꆢ붡돌뛈뗄랽램뗈뿶ꆣꆢ킽쮮횧뢶쫐샍뚯볓짮뛸뗃떽쳡룟;퓚돇쫇뷢쫍솦쫐뎡훐,뷌폽뗄닮틬훘튪틲쯘늻ꆣ춬좺쳥쫕죫닮틬뗄Li,20031닩995쓪CHIP뗷OLS맀볆킡쪱릤쯹럝폐훆ꆢ탐튵ꆢ쪡ퟥꆢꆢ컄떳뮯풱듳ꆢ짙쫽쏱뷌폽폽믘놨싊캪514%;ퟜ뗄뷌폚믘놨싊뗄뗍쮮욽훷튪쫇평쿂쿧뗈탩쓢룯뇤쏼솿훐ꆣ돉돵ꆣ뗈뷌폽뗄뗍믘놨싊쯹퓬Zhangand1988쓪훁1Zhao,2002쓪999CHNS뗷닩ꆣOLS맀볆퓂쫕죫뗘폐훆쟸ꆢ탩횰쓢튵뇤뫍솿탐튵ꆢ쯹ꆣ뷌폽믘놨싊1988쓪캪417%,1훷99튪9평쓪캪룟뗈111뷌5폽%,믘믘놨놨싊싊퓶짽볓룟쯹퓬돉ꆣWuandXie,1992002맺룶6죋쓪샺떱쪷듺폫짧훐OLS맀볆,죫쫇Heckman톡퓱쒣퓂쫕횰럱튵떳ꆢ룶풱죋ꆢ쯹믩폐틶훆ힴꆢ놨탍싊뺭뷏볃룟훐늢쫐늻뎡쓜늿놻쏅뷢뷌쫍폽캪믘쫇믡뇤잨뗷닩ꆣ탍ꆣ뿶ꆢ뻓힡뗘쟸뗈ꆣ쫐뎡뮯뗄뷡맻ꆣꆡꆡ힢:웤쯻훘튪뿘훆뇤솿쫇횸돽쇋튻냣뇘탫뾼싇뗄릤ퟷ뺭퇩ꆢ탔뇰뫍쓪쇤뗈룶죋쳘헷횮췢뗄웤쯻뇤솿,죧뗘쟸ꆢ횰튵뫍탐튵뇤솿뗈ꆣ61
헅뎵캰:죋솦놾믘놨싊뇤뮯폫쫕죫닮뻠ꆰ:십첫킧펦ꆱ벰웤헾닟몬틥믘놨싊뗄뇤뮯쳘뗣벰웤뛔쫕죫닮뻠뗄펰쿬ꆣ탨튪횸돶뗄쫇,놾컄쪹폃뗄돩퇹뗷닩쫽뻝뷶살ퟔ헣붭ꆢ짏몣뫍뢣붨죽룶쪡쫐,뻟쳥뗄맀볆뷡맻늢늻쓜듺뇭좫맺,떫뿉틔듺뇭쫽뻝살풴쪡ꆣ폫틔췹뗄춬샠퇐뺿쿠뇈,놾컄뗄릱쿗훷튪냼삨헢퇹솽룶랽쏦ꆣ튻쫇쪹폃쇋ퟮ탂뗄쓜릻듺뇭돇쿧샍뚯솦쫐뎡뗄쫽뻝,쏖늹쇋틔췹퇐뺿훐틲쫽뻝쿞훆뛸횻쓜냑돇쿧뷌폽믘놨싊럖뾪맀볆뗄늻ퟣꆣ뛾쫇놾퇐뺿늻뷶뻟쳥뗘맀볆뷌폽믘놨싊벰웤쯦뷌폽쮮욽뗄뇤뮯,뛸쟒뮹퇐뺿뷌폽믘놨싊쯦쫕죫쮮욽뗄뇤뮯폫쳘헷ꆣ퓚틑폐뗄컄쿗훐,폐맘룶죋뷌폽믘놨싊죧뫎쯦쫕죫쮮욽뇤뮯뗄퇐뺿퓚훐맺뮹뫜짙볻떽ꆣ죽ꆢ샭싛ꆢ랽램폫쫽뻝쮵쏷퇐뺿쫐뎡뺭볃훐죋솦놾폫쫕죫닮뻠횮볤맘쾵뿉틔듓럖컶릤랽돌뾪쪼ꆣ쏀맺뺭볃톧볒쏷즪(Mincer)폚1972쓪쳡돶늢쫗쿈쪹폃뗄릤랽돌볙뚨,샍뚯헟뗄릤탔쫕죫췪좫평샍뚯헟죋솦놾뫍웤쯼룶쳥쳘헷쯹뻶뚨,헢퇹룶죋쫕죫Yi뻍킴돉튻쾵쇐죋솦놾뇤솿H뗄몯쫽,벴Yi=f(H)ꆣ캪쇋쇋뷢쫕죫닮뻠폫죋솦놾횮볤뗄맘쾵,뿉틔춬쪱뛔릤랽돌솽뛋좡랽닮ꆣ헢퇹,쫕죫늻욽뗈폫죋솦놾늻욽뗈횮볤뗄맘쾵뻍뿉틔뇭쪾캪:Var(Y)i=M2Var(H)(i1)ꆡꆡ퓚(1)쪽훐,M캪죋솦놾뗄쫐뎡믘놨ꆣ퓚튻룶췪짆뗄샍뚯솦쫐뎡짏,M튻냣캪뎣쫽ꆣ떱쫐뎡늻췪짆쪱,죋솦놾믘놨뻍뿉쓜늻쫇튻룶뎣쫽,쯼뿉쓜뮹믡쯦뗘쟸ꆢ탐튵ꆢ횰튵뗈늻춬뛸뇤뮯ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,릤랽돌뿉틔놻뷸튻늽킴돉죧쿂뷏캪뢴퓓뗄탎쪽:Yi=<[Mrf(H)i](2)ꆡꆡ웤훐Yi캪룶쳥뗄쫕죫쮮욽,Hi캪죋솦놾뇤솿,Mr캪죋솦놾믘놨뇤솿ꆣ죧맻볙뚨죋솦놾쮮욽뫍죋솦놾믘놨횮볤쫇쿠뮥뛀솢뗄,쟒E(H)i=ꛌH뫍E(Mr)=ꛌM,퓲쫕죫늻욽뗈뫍죋솦놾횮볤뗄맘쾵뻍뿉틔춨맽뛔랽돌쪽(2)솽뇟춬쪱좡랽닮뛸뷸튻늽뇭쪾캪죧쿂맘쾵쪽:Var(Yir)=ꛌ2MVar(Hir)+ꛌ2HVar(Mr)+Var(Hir)ꆤVar(Mr)(3)ꆡꆡ퓚릫쪽(3)훐,ꛌM캪죋솦놾믘놨뗄웚췻횵,ꛌH캪죋솦놾쮮욽뗄웚췻횵ꆣ듓룃릫쪽뿉틔뾴돶,쫕죫닮뻠늻뷶틀삵폚죋솦놾쮮욽뗄닮틬Var(Hir)뫍죋솦놾믘놨뗄닮틬Var(Mr),뛸쟒뮹틀삵폚죋솦놾뗄뻹횵ꛌH벰죋솦놾믘놨뗄뻹횵ꛌMꆣ룹뻝(3)늻쓑뾴돶,죧맻죋솦놾믘놨캪쇣,벴M=0,믲헟쮵죋솦놾컞램뗃떽쫐뎡믘놨,퓲Var(Y)i=0,퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,쫕죫닮뻠뫍죋솦놾횮볤뻍쎻폐맘쾵ꆣ죧맻죋솦놾믘놨늻캪쇣,벴Mꇙ0,쟒M늻쫇튻룶뎣쫽뗄쟩뿶쿂,퓲쫕죫닮뻠늻뷶뫍죋솦놾벰웤닮틬폐맘,뛸쟒뮹뫍죋솦놾믘놨듳킡벰웤닮틬폐맘ꆣ틲듋,퓚룸뚨죋솦놾쮮욽벰웤닮틬뗄쟩뿶쿂,쫕죫닮뻠뻍평죋솦놾믘놨벰웤닮틬쯹뻶뚨,죋솦놾쫐뎡믘놨싊풽룟,쫕죫닮틬뻍붫풽듳;춬쪱,죧맻죋솦놾믘놨늻쫇튻룶뎣쫽,퓲죋솦놾믘놨뗄닮틬돌뛈풽듳,쫕죫닮뻠튲믡풽듳ꆣ평듋뿉볻,쇋뷢죋솦놾믘놨벰웤뇤뮯ힴ뿶뛔폚샭뷢쫕죫닮뻠컊쳢뗄놾훊뻟폐훘튪틢틥ꆣ퓚쪵횤퇐뺿훐,쏷즪릤랽돌쫇폃살맀볆죋솦놾믘놨뗄믹놾랽램,웤튻냣탎쪽캪:LnY=Xꇤꛂ+ꛌ(4)ꆡꆡ퓚(4)훐,LnY캪쫕죫뗄뛔쫽,X캪튻쾵쇐듺뇭죋솦놾뗄뇤솿;ꛂ캪듽맀볆뗄닎쫽,튻냣뿉틔놻뷢쫍캪죋솦놾뗄믘놨;ꛌ캪컳닮쿮,쟒E(ꛌ)=0,튲뻍쫇쮵ꛌ탨튪싺ퟣ웚췻횵캪쇣뗄볙짨ꆣ놾퇐뺿쪹폃뗄쫽뻝살ퟔ폚훐맺짧믡뿆톧풺죋뿚폫샍뚯뺭볃퇐뺿쯹폫첨췥쪡ꆰ훐퇫퇐뺿풺ꆱ뫏ퟷ폚2004쓪7퓂퓚짏몣ꆢ헣붭뫍뢣붨죽쪡쫐뷸탐뗄ꆰ볒춥뚯첬폫닆뢻듺볊쇷뚯돩퇹뗷닩ꆱ,뗷닩뛔쿳62
2006쓪뗚12웚캪쓪쇤퓚25ꆪ68쯪뗄룶죋ꆣ뗷닩닉폃럖닣뛠뷗뛎PPS돩퇹ꋙ랽램,벴내돇쫐뮯쮮욽뷸탐럖닣돩퇹뫳퓙럖뷗뛎돩좡뗷닩퇹놾,릲뗃떽폐킧퇹놾4684룶,웤훐짏몣캪903룶ꆢ헣붭1856룶ꆢ뢣붨1925룶ꆣ뇭2쏨쫶쇋놾퇐뺿쪹폃뗄쫽뻝벰웤솽룶훘튪뇤솿뗄믹놾ힴ뿶ꆣ뇭2뗷닩퇹놾훷튪뇤솿쏨쫶뗘쟸욽뻹쫜뷌폽쓪쫽(쓪)샍뚯놨돪(풪Π퓂)퇹놾쫽(룶)욽뻹횵뇪ힼ닮퇹놾쫽(룶)욽뻹횵뇪ힼ닮짏몣9029168313654215671815헣붭185361643162138912222323뢣붨19246132410714438921329뫏볆467971094102337411361887쯄ꆢ폐맘뷌폽믘놨싊벰웤쯦뷌폽쮮욽뇤뮯뗄맀볆퓚쪹폃쏷즪릤랽돌맀볆죋솦놾쫕틦쪱,랽돌폒뇟뗄뇤솿훷튪냼삨솽샠:튻샠캪죋솦놾뇤솿;쇭튻샠쫇뫍죋솦놾뇤솿폐맘춬쪱튲뫍쫕죫폐맘뗄뇤솿,헢샠뇤솿튻냣튲놻돆캪뿘훆뇤솿ꆣ퓚폐맘뷌폽믘놨싊뗄맀볆훐,죋솦놾뇤솿떱좻뻍쫇뷌폽,뛸웤쯻뇘탫뿘훆뗄뇤솿냼삨쓜솦ꆢ릤ퟷ뺭퇩ꆢ탔뇰뫍쓪쇤뗈ꆣ쓜솦뇤솿평폚컞램놻맛닢떽뛸뎣뎣놻뫶싔떽,헢퇹퓚맀볆뷌폽뗄쫕틦싊쪱뻍늻뿉뇜쏢퓢쫜ꆰ쪡싔뇤솿ꆱ욫컳뗄펰쿬ꆣ늻맽,평폚퓚튻킩쟩뿶쿂믡돶쿖컳닮쿠뮥뗖쿻뗄쿖쿳,OLS맀볆튲폐뿉쓜뗃떽튻훂탔뗄맀볆뷡맻(Card,1999)ꆣ춬쪱,퓚튻냣뗄퇐뺿훐,뺭퇩뇤솿뎣뎣춨맽쓪쇤복좥짏톧쓪쿞뗄랽램뛸뗃떽,퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,쓪쇤뇤솿뻍쎻폐뇘튪ퟷ캪뿘훆뇤솿뷸죫랽돌ꆣ뛸죧맻릤ퟷ뺭퇩뇤솿쫇횱뷓닢솿뗃떽뗄쪵볊릤ퟷ뺭퇩,퓲쓪쇤뻍펦룃ퟷ캪뿘훆뇤솿뷸죫랽돌횮훐ꆣ퓋폃살ퟔ짏몣ꆢ헣붭뫍뢣붨뗄ퟮ탂뗷닩쫽뻝,ퟷ헟쪹폃잰쏦뷩짜뗄쏷즪랽돌뛔뷌폽믘놨싊뷸탐맀볆,쯹맀볆뗄뻟쳥랽돌탎쪽죧쿂:LnY=ꛁ0+ꛁ1Edu+ꛁ2Exper+ꛁ3E2xper+ꇆꛋjX+ꛌ(5)ꆡꆡ(5)쪽훐,LnY캪퓂욽뻹릤탔쫕죫뗄뛔쫽,Edu캪욽뻹쫜뷌폽쓪쿞,Exper캪릤ퟷ뺭퇩2,Exper캪릤ퟷ뺭퇩욽랽쿮,X캪웤쯻뿘훆뇤솿,죧쓪쇤ꆢ탔뇰ꆢ뗘쟸ꆢ횰튵뫍탐튵뇤솿뗈,ꛌ캪컳닮쿮ꆣ뻟쳥살쮵,ퟷ캪틲뇤솿뗄쫕죫뇤솿캪퓂욽뻹릤탔쫕죫(냼삨붱뷰),릤ퟷ뺭퇩캪횱뷓뗃떽뗄듓쫂떱잰릤ퟷ뗄쪱볤ꆣ웤쯻폐맘룶죋뗄뿘훆뇤솿냼삨쓪쇤뫍탔뇰,ퟷ헟헢샯쯹틔뾼싇럅죫쓪쇤뇤솿,훷튪풭틲뻍퓚폚랽돌훐쯹쪹폃뗄뺭퇩뇤솿캪뗷닩훐횱뷓뗃떽뗄듓쫂떱잰릤ퟷ뗄쪱볤,뛸늻쫇쪹폃웤쯻춬샠퇐뺿훐맟뎣닉폃뗄쓪쇤복좥짏톧쪱볤뗄랽램뗃떽뗄뺭퇩ꆣ헢퇹,볓죫쓪쇤뇤솿뻍뿉틔뿘훆룶죋틲돶짺쓪듺늻춬쯹떼훂뗄뷌폽돌뛈닮틬뛔쫕죫뗄펰쿬ꆣ훐맺쒿잰샍뚯솦쫐뎡헽뒦폚늻뛏랢폽뫍췪짆뗄맽돌횮훐,샍뚯솦쫐뎡뗄뛠훘럖룮쫇튻룶믹놾쫂쪵ꆣ뛸샍뚯쫐뎡럖룮틢캶ퟅ죋솦놾믘놨싊퓚놻럖룮뗄쫐뎡훐듦퓚ퟅ닮틬,퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,늻뾼싇쫐뎡럖룮틲쯘펰쿬,뻍늻쓜뗃떽폐맘죋솦놾믘놨싊뗄ꆰ튻훂탔ꆱ맀볆뷡맻ꆣ본폚놾퇐뺿쪹폃뗄쫽뻝살ퟔ죽룶쪡쫐,샍뚯솦쫐뎡뗄뗘쟸럖룮쫇놾퇐뺿쫗쿈튪뾼싇뗄컊쳢ꆣ춬쪱,평폚컒맺퓚탐튵뫍횰튵뗄뷸죫짏듦퓚ퟅ훮뛠쿞훆뫍ꆰ쏅볷ꆱ,샍뚯솦쫐뎡뗄횰튵뫍탐튵럖룮튲럇뎣퇏훘,쿻돽탐튵뫍횰튵럖룮뗄펰쿬뛔폚뗃떽뷌폽믘놨싊뗄튻훂탔맀볆튲럇뎣훘튪ꆣ듓벼쫵짏살뾴,쿻돽샍뚯솦쫐뎡럖룮펰쿬뗄볲떥냬램뻍쫇퓚믘맩훐볓죫듺뇭쫐뎡럖룮뗄탩쓢뇤솿ꆣ샽죧,죧맻퓚믘맩훐볓죫뗘쟸탩뇤솿,튻쟐틲뗘쟸늻춬쯹듸살뗄펰쿬뻍믡놻뿘훆믲헟쮵놻쿻돽,샍뚯솦쫐뎡뗄뗘쟸럖룮쪵볊짏튲쫇ꋙ쯹캽PPS(ProbabilityProportionaltoSize)돩퇹,뻍쫇튻훖폫맦쒣듳킡돉뇈샽뗄룅싊돩퇹랽램ꆣ63
헅뎵캰:죋솦놾믘놨싊뇤뮯폫쫕죫닮뻠ꆰ:십첫킧펦ꆱ벰웤헾닟몬틥뗘쟸닮틬뗄튻늿럖,웤펰쿬떱좻튲뻍믡놻쯦횮쿻돽ꆣ춬퇹뗀샭,퓚믘맩훐볓죫듺뇭늻춬탐튵뫍횰튵뗄탩쓢뇤솿튲쓜릻웰떽쿻돽쫐뎡탐튵뫍횰튵럖룮펰쿬뗄ퟷ폃ꆣퟷ헟뛔뷌폽믘놨싊뗄맀볆뾼싇쇋듦퓚쫐뎡럖룮뫍늻듦퓚쫐뎡럖룮솽훖쟩뿶ꆣ튪쇋뷢뷌폽믘놨싊쫇럱쯦뷌폽돌뛈늻춬뛸뇤뮯,ퟮ믹놾뗄랽램뻍쫇내뷌폽돌뛈럖ퟩ뷸탐믘맩,늻맽헢퇹ퟶ튻랽쏦믡틲맛닢횵룶쫽복짙떼훂ퟔ평뛈붵뗍,춬쪱튲믡떼훂럖ퟩ뫳ퟩ쓚뇤솿뇤틬뛈복짙,헢솽뗣뚼믡퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏펰쿬떽믘맩뗄킧싊,퓚폐킩쟩뿶쿂튲탭떼훂맀볆뷡맻늻쿔훸ꆣ떫죧맻럖ퟩ뫳믘맩뷡맻죔좻퓚춳볆짏쫇쿔훸뗄,퓲럖ퟩ뗄냬램뻍쫇튻훖뇈뷏뫃뗄냬램ꆣ떱좻,춨맽퓚믘맩랽돌훐볓죫욽랽쿮뗄냬램튲뿉틔폃살맛달뷌폽믘놨쫇럱쯦뷌폽돌뛈뇤뮯,떫헢퇹ퟶ뗄좱뗣럇뎣쏷쿔:튻쫇헢훖랽램죋캪뗘맦뚨쇋믘맩랽돌뗄탎쪽,뛔믘맩살쮵퓶볓쇋룼뛠뗄죋캪볙뚨펰쿬;뛾쫇헢훖랽램뗄뷡맻돽쇋쮵쏷뷌폽믘놨싊뇤뮯뗄럇쿟탔맘쾵췢,늻춬뷌폽돌뛈뗄뷌폽믘놨싊컞램듓뷢뛁믘맩쾵쫽횱뷓뗃떽,뛸쫇뇘탫춨맽뷸튻늽볆쯣뗃떽ꆣ본폚믘맩쾵쫽놾짭뗄쯦믺탔,볤뷓볆쯣뗃떽뗄뷡맻췹췹믡떼훂룼듳뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆣ헢쪵볊짏튲쫇캪쪲쎴퓚퇐뺿뇤솿볤럇쿟탔쪱,쿖듺럖컶벼쫵풽살풽늻쟣쿲폚쪹폃퓚믘맩훐볓죫욽랽쿮뗄냬램,뛸쫇룼뛠뗘톡퓱럇닎쫽맀볆뗄냬램ꋙꆣ본폚틔짏풭틲,놾컄훷튪춨맽럖ퟩ뗄냬램살퇐뺿뷌폽믘놨싊쯦뷌폽돌뛈뗄뇤뮯ힴ뿶,헢샯릲맀볆쇋10ퟩ랽돌,랽돌1ꆪ5캪늻뾼싇쫐뎡럖룮쟩뿶쿂뗄맀볆뷡맻,랽돌6ꆪ10뾼싇떽쫐뎡럖룮쟩뿶쿂뗄맀볆뷡맻ꆣ평폚쫕죫뇤솿캪뛔쫽탎쪽,헢퇹,뷌폽쓪쿞뇤솿뗄믘맩쾵쫽뻍뿉틔놻횱뷓뷢쫍캪뷌폽뗄믘놨싊,냑헢튻쾵쫽돋틔100뻍쿠떱폚쫜뷌폽쓪쿞쎿퓶볓1쓪쯹듸살뗄쫕죫퓶볓뗄냙럖뇈ꆣퟛ뫏뇭3뗄맀볆뷡맻뿉틔뾴돶,퓚늻뾼싇쫐뎡럖룮펰쿬뗄쟩뿶쿂,ퟜ쳥뷌폽믘놨싊룟듯10114%,웤훐,돵훐뷗뛎뗄뷌폽믘놨싊ퟮ룟듯떽917%,룟훐뷗뛎듎횮캪8103%,듳벰틔짏뷗뛎캪5126%,킡톧뷗뛎ퟮ뗍,뷶뷶캪4112%ꆣ떫떱뾼싇쇋쫐뎡럖룮틲쯘뫳,뷌폽믘놨싊돶쿖쇋뫜듳뗄뇤뮯ꆣퟜ쳥뷌폽믘놨싊복짙떽횻폐4134%,럖뷌폽돌뛈살뾴,룟훐ꆢ돵훐뫍킡톧뷌폽믘놨싊뚼뫜뗍쟒퓚춳볆짏뚼늻첫쿔훸,룟훐ퟮ룟튲횻폐215%,떫쫇,듳벰틔짏뷌폽돌뛈뗄믘놨싊늻뷶쎻폐붵뗍랴뛸쳡룟떽6142%,쟒퓚춳볆짏럇뎣쿔훸ꆣ뾼싇떽쫐뎡럖룮뗄맀볆뷡맻쮵쏷,쫐뎡럖룮틲쯘뛔뷌폽믘놨싊뗄맀볆펰쿬럇뎣듳,쟒헢훖펰쿬뛔뗍뷌폽돌뛈헟뗄펰쿬튪듳듳룟폚룟뷌폽돌뛈헟ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ쫜맽뷏뗍뷌폽돌뛈뗄샍뚯헟뗄뷌폽믘놨룼뛠뗘쫇춨맽톡퓱뻍튵춾뺶(죧톡퓱뗘쟸ꆢ탐튵뫍횰튵)뛸쪵쿖뗄ꆣ내뇭3럖ퟩ랽램쯹맀볆뗄뷌폽믘놨싊쪵볊짏횻쫇ퟮ룟뷌폽돌뛈캪룃럖ퟩ뷌폽돌뛈죋뗄뷌폽믘놨싊,뛸늻쫇헦헽틢틥짏룃뷌폽뷗뛎뗄믘놨싊,틲캪헢퇹뗄럖ퟩ냬램틢캶ퟅ쫜맽춬퇹뷌폽떫ퟮ훕뷌폽돌뛈뷏룟뗄죋늢쎻폐놻냼삨뷼살ꆣ샽죧,뻍돵훐ퟩ살쮵,헢샯횻냼삨쇋ퟮ룟뷌폽돌뛈캪돵훐뗄죋,룟훐벰웤틔짏뷌폽돌뛈ퟩ쿔좻뚼퓸뺭쫜떽맽돵훐뷌폽,떫헢늿럖늢쎻폐놻냼삨퓚돵훐ퟩꆣ캪쇋뿋럾헢훖럖ퟩ랽램뗄늻ퟣ,ퟷ헟뾼싇쇋쇭튻훖럖ퟩ냬램,벴냑퇹놾럖돉킡톧틔짏뷌폽돌뛈ퟩꆢ돵훐틔짏ꆢ룟훐틔짏뫍듳틔짏뷌폽돌뛈ퟩ,헢훖럖ퟩ만좻뿋럾쇋잰쏦뗄늻ퟣ떫튲폐좱뗣,벴컞램냑놾ퟩ쓚뷏뗍뷌폽돌뛈뗄펰쿬쟸럖돶살,샽죧퓚돵훐뷌폽돌뛈ퟩ,쯹폐뗄죋뚼쫜맽킡톧뷌폽,헢훖럖ퟩ냬램뻍컞램냑킡톧뷌폽뫍돵훐뷌폽뗄펰쿬쟸뇰뾪살ꆣ캪쇋뷸튻늽뿋럾헢튻좱뗣,ퟷ헟쪹폃쇋퓚믘맩훐쳭볓붻닦쿮뗄냬램ꆣ쫂쪵짏,쓜릻놣돖뫍내뷌폽돌뛈럖ퟩ맀볆쿠춬몬틥쟒뿉틔냑춬ퟩ쓚늻춬뷌폽돌뛈펰쿬럖뷢뾪살뗄냬램뻍쫇쪹폃붻닦쿮뗄랽램,벴춨맽짨훃듺뇭쒳튻샠뷌폽돌뛈뗄탩쓢뇤솿,좻뫳냑헢튻탩쓢뇤솿폫뷌폽쓪쿞뇤솿뗄돋믽럅죫랽돌훐,헢퇹,쯹맀볆뗄랽돌뻍뇤돉쇋죧(6)쯹쪾ꆣLnY=ꛂ0+ꛂ1Di+ꛂ2Edu+ꛂ3Di3Edu+ꛂ4Exper+ꛂ5E2xper+ꇆꛂ(jZj+ꛅ6)ꋙ럇닎쫽맀볆쓜릻뫜뫃뗘쏨쫶뇤솿볤뗄몯쫽탎쪽,떫컞램뗃떽뻟쳥뗄맀볆닎쫽쫇웤ퟮ듳뗄좱쿝ꆣ64
2006쓪뗚12웚뇭3쏷즪릤랽돌맀볆뷡맻(OLS맀볆):틲뇤솿캪퓂릤쫕죫뗄뛔쫽늻뾼싇쫐뎡럖룮뗄쟩뿶뾼싇쫐뎡럖룮뗄쟩뿶쒣탍탲뫅(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)ퟔ뇤솿뫏볆킡톧돵훐룟훐듳벰틔짏뫏볆킡톧돵훐룟훐듳벰틔짏쫜뷌폽011014010412010970010803010526010434010212010124010255010642쓪쿞(26149)(3176)(7125)(2193)(2188)(912)(2103)(0195)(0195)(3135)뺭퇩-010021-010185011454010241010129010198010155010276010212010233(-0153)(-3129)(1195)(1171)(0191)(5125)(2162)(3195)(1191)(1145)뺭퇩욽랽-010004-010001-010011-010009-010001-010005-010004-010008-010004-010002(-4158)(-0187)(-5107)(-2137)(-0131)(-5121)(-3120)(-411)(-116)(-0158)탔뇰013823015944013139013427010555014412015787013941014376011147(쓐=1)(12164)(12169)(6105)(4127)(0160)(16105)(13111)(8159)(5196)(1124)쓪쇤-010002-010057010093-010144-010111-010121-010119-010069-010207-010142(-0112)(1181)(3121)(-1182)(-118)(-6114)(-3198)(-2134)(-2179)(-2109)뎣쫽쿮싔싔싔싔싔싔싔싔싔싔뿘훆뗘쟸럱럱럱럱럱쫇쫇쫇쫇쫇뿘훆탐튵럱럱럱럱럱쫇쫇쫇쫇쫇뿘훆횰튵럱럱럱럱럱쫇쫇쫇쫇쫇R20135012801130109010501510142013701370119맛달횵N=3249N=1350N=1201N=414N=237N=3231N=1342N=1194N=412N=236ꆡꆡ힢:(1)삨뫅훐쫽ퟖ캪T횵ꆣ(2)돵훐냼삨훐뫍벼킣;룟훐냼삨웕춨룟훐뫍횰튵룟훐ꆣ(3)뗘쟸탩뇤솿냼삨짏몣ꆢ헣붭뫍뢣붨ꆣ(4)탐튵탩쓢뇤솿냼삨7샠,럖뇰쫇얩쇖쓁폦튵,훆퓬튵,웤쯻릤튵,뗘훊뾱닩ꆢ쮮샻맜샭,붻춨퓋쫤,닖뒢튵,폊뗧춨톶,탅쾢ꆢ톯럾컱튵,랿뗘닺튵,뷰죚ꆢ횤좯ꆢ놣쿕튵,엺랢뫍쇣쫛쎳틗,닍틻ꆢ싃폎뫍폩샖튵,짧믡럾컱튵,뿆뷌컄컀쫂튵,웤쯻탐튵ꆣ(5)횰튵탩쓢뇤솿릲8샠,럖뇰쫇믺맘뢺퓰죋,튵벼쫵죋풱,냬쫂죋풱,짌튵죋풱,럾컱죋풱,얩쇖쓁폦짺닺죋풱,짺닺뫍퓋쫤릤죋,뻼뺯뫍웤쯻ꆣ퓚(6)훐,Di캪쒳튻벶뷌폽돌뛈뗄탩쓢뇤솿,Edu캪쫜뷌폽쓪쿞뇤솿,Exper캪릤ퟷ뺭퇩,D3iEdu캪뷌폽돌뛈탩쓢뇤솿폫쫜뷌폽쓪쿞뇤솿뗄붻닦돋믽,Zj캪웤쯻뿘훆뇤솿,냼삨탔뇰ꆢ쓪쇤ꆢ뗘쟸ꆢ횰튵뫍탐튵뗈,ꛅ캪컳닮쿮ꆣ룹뻝잰쏦맘폚럖ퟩ랽램뗄쳖싛,ퟷ헟헢샯릲맀볆쇋6ퟩ랽돌ꆣ웤훐랽돌(1)ꆪ(3)캪튻냣럖ퟩ랽램쒣탍,놻돆캪튻냣쒣탍;랽돌(4)ꆪ(6)캪붻닦쿮럖ퟩ랽램쒣탍,놻돆캪붻닦쿮쒣탍ꆣ맀볆뷡맻놻믣ퟜ퓚뇭4횮훐ꆣ평폚내헕튻냣럖ퟩ랽램,킡톧벰틔짏뷌폽돌뛈ퟩ쪵볊짏튲뻍쫇퇹놾ퟜ쳥,맊쎻폐퓚뇭훐쇐돶맀볆뷡맻ꆣ듓뇭4뗄맀볆뷡맻뿉틔뾴돶,퓚튻냣쒣탍뗄맀볆훐,돵훐틔짏뷌폽돌뛈헟뷌폽믘놨싊캪6153%,룟훐뷌폽돌뛈헟뷌폽쫕틦싊룟듯8191%,듳뷌폽돌뛈헟뷌폽믘놨싊캪6142%ꆣ뾼싇떽잰쏦맀볆뗄ퟜ쳥(킡톧틔짏뷌폽돌뛈헟)뗄뷌폽믘놨싊캪4134%(닎볻뇭3랽돌(6)뗄뷡맻),뷏룟뷌폽뷗뛎뗄믘놨싊뚼룟폚욽뻹(ퟜ쳥)믘놨싊,웤훐,룟훐틔짏뷌폽돌뛈헟뗄믘놨싊ퟮ룟,쫇욽뻹믘놨싊(킡톧틔짏뷌폽돌뛈헟)뗄2놶뛠,돵훐틔짏뷌폽돌뛈헟뗄믘놨싊쫇욽뻹믘놨싊뗄115놶,듳톧틔짏뷌폽돌뛈헟믘놨싊쫇욽뻹쮮욽뗄1148놶ꆣ좻뛸,헽죧잰쏦쯹횸돶뗄쓇퇹,튻냣쒣탍뗄럖ퟩ늢늻쓜냑춬ퟩ쓚뷏뗍뷌폽돌뛈뗄펰쿬쳞돽,뛸붻닦쿮럖ퟩ냬램퓲뿉틔쏖늹헢랽쏦뗄늻ퟣꆣ늻맽,뷢뛁붻닦쿮쒣탍뗄믘맩쾵쫽폐뗣싩랳ꆣ퓚붻닦쿮쒣탍훐,떱Dꛂi=1쪱,뷌폽믘놨싊캪5lny:=5Edu2+ꛂ3ꆣ뻟쳥살뾴,떱Di=0뷌폽D=1i65
헅뎵캰:죋솦놾믘놨싊뇤뮯폫쫕죫닮뻠ꆰ:십첫킧펦ꆱ벰웤헾닟몬틥믘놨싊캪5lny5lny5lny:=ꛂ,-5E2;춬쪱=ꛂ3,헢퇹,ꛂ3뻍쫇Di=1뷌폽돌뛈ퟩ폫DiduD=05EduD=15EduD=0iii=0뷌폽돌뛈ퟩ뗄믘놨싊횮닮ꆣ쫂쪵짏,튻냣럖ퟩ쒣탍뫍붻닦쿮쒣탍쪵볊짏퓚쫽톧짏쫇뗈볛뗄,횻늻맽,퓚튻냣럖ퟩ쒣탍훐뗄횱뷓뗃떽뗄뷌폽믘놨싊ꛂ2뗈폚붻닦쿮쒣탍훐솽룶쾵쫽횮뫍ꛂ2+ꛂ3ꆣ뇭4늻춬쫜뷌폽돌뛈뗄뷌폽믘놨싊(OLS맀볆):틲뇤솿캪퓂릤쫕죫뗄뛔쫽튻냣쒣탍붻닦쿮쒣탍쒣탍탲뫅(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)돵훐틔짏룟훐틔짏듳틔짏돵훐틔짏=1룟훐틔짏=1듳틔짏=1ퟔ뇤솿쾵쫽쾵쫽쾵쫽쾵쫽쾵쫽쾵쫽뷌폽(ꛂ0106530108910106420102540102750103142)(8108)(6183)(3135)(2160)(5112)(6135)뷌폽탩뇤솿ꆪꆪꆪ-013521-015195012930(-4132)(-3175)(1102)붻닦쿮(ꛂ3)ꆪꆪꆪ010448010590010103(3168)(5102)(0154)뺭퇩010281010261010233010205010208010205(5101)(2188)(1145)(5144)(5148)(5143)뺭퇩욽랽-010007-010005-010002-010005-010005-010004(-4165)(-2111)(-0158)(-5152)(-5153)(-5148)탔뇰013819013258011147014614014586014513(10176)(5165)(1124)(16165)(16170)(16161)쓪쇤-010108-010173-010142-010122-010122-010118(-4103)(-3149)(-2109)(-6115)(-6122)(-6105)뗘쟸싔싔싔싔싔싔탐튵싔싔싔싔싔싔횰튵싔싔싔싔싔싔뎣쫽쿮싔싔싔싔싔싔R2014101390119015101510151맛달쫽솿N=1842N=648N=236N=3231N=3231N=3231ꆡꆡ힢:삨뫅훐쫽ퟖ캪T-횵ꆣ평듋뿉볻,붻닦쿮쒣탍쯹맀볆뗄뷌폽믘놨싊럖뇰캪:돵훐틔짏뷌폽돌뛈ퟩ캪010254+010448=010702,룟훐틔짏뷌폽돌뛈ퟩ캪010275+010590=010865,듳틔짏뷌폽돌뛈ퟩ캪010314+010103=010417ꆣ돽쇋쓜뗃떽뫍튻냣쒣탍쿠쯆뗄뷡맻틔췢,붻닦쒣탍맀볆뷡맻뮹쓜럖뇧돶늻춬뷌폽돌뛈믘놨싊뗄닮틬ꆣ퓚붻닦쿮쒣탍랽돌(4)훐,킡톧뷌폽뫍돵훐틔짏뷌폽믘놨싊뗄닮틬뻍뿉틔럖뇦돶살,룹뻝헢튻쒣탍,킡톧뷌폽믘놨싊횻폐2154%(ꛂ2),폫킡톧쿠뇈,쎿퓶볓튻쓪돵훐벰틔짏뷌폽,뷌폽믘놨싊튪퓶볓4148%(ꛂ2)ꆣ룹뻝붻닦쿮쒣탍뗄랽돌(5)뗄뷡맻,돵훐벰틔쿂뗄뷌폽믘놨싊횻폐2175%(ꛂ2),폫돵훐벰틔쿂뷌폽돌뛈쿠뇈,쎿퓶볓튻쓪룟훐벰틔짏뷌폽돌뛈,뷌폽믘놨싊튪퓶볓519%(ꛂ2)ꆣ붻닦쿮쒣탍랽돌(6)뗄뷡맻뇭쏷,룟훐틔쿂뗄뷌폽믘놨싊캪3114%(ꛂ2),뛸쎿퓶볓튻쓪듳벰틔짏뷌폽뷌폽믘놨싊뇤뮯(ꛂ3)뇤뗃늻쿔훸쇋,헢쮵쏷뷓쫜듳틔짏뷌폽폫뷓쫜룟훐틔짏뷌폽쿠뇈늢늻쓜듸살룼룟뗄쫕틦ꆣퟛ뫏잰쏦뗄맀볆,뿉틔뾴떽,놾컄쯹맀볆뗄훐맺쒿잰뗄뷌폽믘놨싊늢늻룟,욽뻹살뾴,쎿퓶볓튻쓪뷌폽돌뛈,룶죋쫕죫듳풼횻퓶볓4134%,떫쫇,늻춬뷌폽뷗뛎뷌폽믘놨싊뗄닮틬뫜듳,룟훐벰틔짏뷌폽돌뛈뗄믘놨싊ퟮ룟,듯떽819%,쫇욽뻹뷌폽믘놨싊뗄2놶,폫돵훐벰틔쿂뷌폽돌뛈쿠뇈,쎿66
2006쓪뗚12웚퓶볓튻쓪룟훐틔짏뷌폽,룶죋쫕죫튪뛠퓶볓519%ꆣ놾컄뗄짏쫶퇐뺿뷡맻뫍폐맘훐맺뷌폽믘놨싊뗄틑폐퇐뺿뷡맻쯹뗃돶뗄뷡싛믹놾짏쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ샽죧,돂쿾폮ꆢ쏶캬랽(1998)붫뷌폽돌뛈럖뇰뒦샭캪컄쎤ꆢ킡톧ꆢ돵훐ꆢ룟훐ꆢ훐ꆢ듳ꆢ놾뿆뗈늻춬뗄탩쓢뇤솿뫳,뷸탐믘맩럖컶뫳랢쿖,룷벶뷌폽뗄룶죋쫕틦싊럖뇰캪:돵훐3159%ꆢ룟훐4119%ꆢ훐6176%ꆢ듳4167%ꆢ놾뿆6158%ꆣ샮쪵ꆢ샮컄뇲(1994)ꆢWei뗈(1999)ꆢXie뗈(1996)튲랢쿖,훐맺뗄뷌폽쫕틦싊듓룟떽뗍틀듎캪룟뗈뷌폽ꆢ훐뗈뷌폽뫍돵뗈뷌폽ꆣ맺볊짏뷌폽믘놨싊뇤뮯뗄튻냣쟷쫆쫇,돵뗈뷌폽믘놨싊ퟮ룟,룟뗈뷌폽듎횮,훐뗈뷌폽ퟮ뗍ꆣ놾컄뗄쪵횤뷡맻뇭쏷훐맺뷌폽믘놨싊뗄뇤뮯늻춬폚맺볊짏뗄튻냣쟷쫆,룼뛠뗘뇭쿖캪뷌폽돌뛈풽룟ꆢ뷌폽뗄뇟볊믘놨튲풽룟뗄쟷쫆,퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,듳솦춶폚죋솦놾만좻쫇듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤뫍룶죋쫕죫쮮욽퓶볓뗄ퟮ폐킧쫖뛎횮튻,떫듓쫕죫럖엤뗄뷇뛈살뾴,횻튪샍뚯헟죋솦놾믽샛쮮욽듦퓚ퟅ닮틬,퓲뷌폽믘놨싊뗄짏쫶뇤뮯쟷쫆뻍믡웰떽볓뻧쫕죫닮뻠뗄ퟷ폃,퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,쫐뎡믺훆쯆뫵쫇룶죋쫕죫닮뻠늻뛏삩듳뗄훘튪쟽뚯솦ꆣꋙ컥ꆢ폐맘뷌폽믘놨싊쯦쫕죫쮮욽뇤뮯뗄맀볆튻냣살쮵,뷌폽돌뛈뗍뗄죋쫕죫쮮욽뷏뗍,뛸뷌폽돌뛈룟뗄죋쫕죫쮮욽튲뷏룟,헢퇹,뷌폽믘놨싊쯦뷌폽돌뛈퓶볓뛸짽룟뗄쟷쫆쯆뫵춬쪱뻍틢캶ퟅ룟쫕죫헟튲믡뗃떽뷏룟뗄뷌폽믘놨싊ꆣ캪쇋뷸뇭5뷌폽믘놨싊쯦쫕죫럖늼뗄뇤뮯:쏷즪랽돌뗄냙럖쫽캻믘맩뷡맻틲뇤솿=퓂쫕죫ퟔ뇤솿쫕죫럖늼뷌폽쓪쿞뺭퇩뺭퇩욽랽탔뇰(쓐=1)쓪쇤5%01027010375-01009014450-010152(3112)(410)(-2186)(7199)(-4122)10%010342010192-010004014208-010142(5121)(3191)(-3113)(14104)(-8132)20%010420010198-010005014154-010125(5175)(5146)(-6180)(16196)(-7107)30%010403010245-010006014008-010118(8143)(7150)(-8116)(18131)(-6107)010236-0100501386540%010454-010112(8165)(6193)(-7139)(13163)(-5147)50%010411010239-010006013972-010101(8105)(6194)(-6172)(15101)(-5143)60%010440010217-010005013968-010094(9163)(7115)(-5146)(13197)(-5140)70%010451010203-010004014171-010104(7102)(6102)(-4131)(14123)(-5160)80%010453010144-010004014396-010084(7115)(3178)(-3138)(12191)(-512)0111090%010535-010003014668-01006(6103)(2115)(-2176)(619)(-1187)03015388-0100695%010653010062-0100(5164)(0158)(-1124)(4185)(-115)ꆡꆡ힢:(1)웤쯻쎻폐냼삨퓚뇭훐뗄뇤솿뮹냼삨뗘쟸ꆢ횰튵뫍탐튵탩쓢뇤솿ꆣ(2)삨뫅훐캪T-횵ꆣꋙ벴쪹퓚뷏뗍뷌폽돌뛈뻟폐뷏룟믘놨싊뗄쟩뿶쿂,룶죋쫕죫닮뻠튲늢늻튻뚨믡틲듋뛸쯵킡ꆣ틲캪뷌폽믘놨싊쫇튻훖뇟볊믘놨싊,본폚뷏룟뷌폽돌뛈헟췹췹뇈뷏뗍뷌폽돌뛈헟뻟폐뷏룟뗄욽뻹쫕죫,잰헟뗄욽뻹뷌폽쫕틦싊죔좻믡룟폚뫳헟ꆣ67
헅뎵캰:죋솦놾믘놨싊뇤뮯폫쫕죫닮뻠ꆰ:십첫킧펦ꆱ벰웤헾닟몬틥튻늽퇩횤뷌폽믘놨싊뇤뮯뗄헢훖늻샻폚쟮죋뗄쫕죫럖엤킧펦,헢샯폐뇘튪뻟쳥뗘뾴튻뾴뷌폽믘놨싊쫇죧뫎쯦쫕죫쮮욽뇤뮯뛸뇤뮯뗄ꆣ샭싛짏살뾴,퇐뺿뷌폽믘놨싊쯦쫕죫쮮욽뗄뇤뮯튲뿉틔쪹폃뎣맦뗄OLS맀볆벼쫵,벴뿉틔춨맽냑퇹놾럖돉늻춬쫕죫쮮욽ퟩ뛸럖뇰맀볆웤뷌폽믘놨싊ꆣ좻뛸,헢퇹ퟶ럇뎣랱쯶,춬쪱,퇹놾맦쒣뛔럖ퟩ뗄쿞훆췹췹쪹뗃쫕죫폫뷌폽믘놨싊뇤뮯횮볤뗄맘쾵뫜쓑놻맛달떽,틲듋,퓚쪵볊훐쫇뫜쓑쪹폃뎣맦OLS맀볆벼쫵살퇐뺿쫕죫폫뷌폽믘놨싊뇤뮯횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ뷼쓪살랢햹웰살뗄럖캻쫽믘맩(QuantileRegression)벼쫵캪퇐뺿뷌폽쫕틦싊쯦쫕죫럖늼뗄뇤뮯쟩뿶쳡릩쇋폐솦뗄릤뻟ꆣ폫뎣맦ퟮ킡뛾돋램(OLS)늻춬,럖캻쫽믘맩쓜릻뫜랽뇣뗘맀볆틲뇤솿뫍ퟔ뇤솿횮볤퓚헻쳥쳵볾럖늼랶캧쓚뗄뇤뮯맘쾵ꆣ쯤좻헢튻맀볆랽램컞램횱뷓뗃떽맀볆횵뗄뇪ힼ닮,떫Bootstrap벼쫵뿉틔뫜뫃뗘쪹헢튻컊쳢뗃떽뷢뻶ꆣ퓋폃럖캻쫽믘맩벼쫵,ퟷ헟맀볆쇋잰쏦뗄쏷즪릤랽돌,뷡맻ퟜ뷡퓚뇭5훐ꆣ듓뗃떽뗄맀볆뷡맻뿉틔뾴돶,뷌폽쫕틦싊좷쪵쯦ퟅ쫕죫럖늼ힴ뿶뛸뇤뮯,뇭쿖캪쫕죫풽룟뗄죋뷌폽믘놨싊풽룟,뛸쫕죫풽뗍뗄죋뷌폽믘놨싊튲풽뗍ꆣꆡ뇭6ꆡ쫕죫ꆢ뷌폽쓪쿞폫뷌폽믘놨싊뇤뮯쫕죫럖늼퓂욽뻹욽뻹쫜뷌뷌폽믘(%)쫕죫(풪)폽쓪(쓪)놨싊(%)5901005182217010150100410931422030010041454120춼30417100511641031ꆡ쎿퓶볓1쓪뷌폽뛔폚늻춬쫕죫쮮욽헟뗄쫕죫킧펦ꆡꆡ캪쇋룼쟥돾뗘맛달쫕죫쮮욽폫뷌폽믘놨싊횮볤뗄4058313061134154맘쾵,ퟷ헟뷸튻늽볆쯣쇋늻춬쫕죫쮮욽뗄욽뻹쫕죫뫍5073617061754111욽뻹쫜뷌폽쓪쿞,늢냑헢킩뷡맻폫뇭5훐뗃떽뗄뷌폽6090010071524140믘놨싊뷡맻튻웰믣벯떽뇭6횮훐ꆣ70101518071564151ꆡꆡ뇭6뗄뷡맻룦쯟컒쏇,뷌폽믘놨싊좷쪵쯦쫕죫쮮욽뗄퓶룟뛸퓶룟,ퟮ뗍쫕죫5%뗄죋뷌폽믘놨싊횻폐80150010081884153902200100101445135217%,뛸ퟮ룟쫕죫95%뗄죋뗄뷌폽믘놨싊ퟮ룟듯떽6153%;춬쪱953287150101836153,쫕죫쮮욽룟뗄죋튲쟣쿲폚쫜떽룼뛠뗄뷌폽,ퟮ뗍쫕죫10%뗄죋욽뻹쫜뷌폽쓪쿞횻폐4109쓪,뛸ퟮ룟쫕죫90%죋뗄쫜뷌폽쓪쿞퓲룟듯10183,뫳헟쫇잰헟뗄2놶뛠ꆣ뿉볻,훐맺뷌폽믘놨싊쯦뷌폽뫍쫕죫쮮욽뗄뇤뮯맦싉웰떽쇋튻훖볓뻧쫕죫닮뻠뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ캪쇋룼쟥돾뗘맛달짏쫶킧펦,ퟷ헟룹뻝뇭6뗄뷡맻뷸튻늽볆쯣쇋쎿퓶볓튻쓪뷌폽뛔폚늻춬쫕죫쮮욽뗄죋살쮵틢캶ퟅ쪲쎴ꆣ뛔폚ퟮ뗍쫕죫5%뗄죋살쮵,쎿퓶볓튻쓪뷌폽횻쓜쪹웤퓂욽뻹쫕죫퓶볓2143풪,뛸뛔폚ퟮ룟쫕죫95%뗄죋살쮵,쎿퓶볓튻쓪뷌폽쓜쪹웤퓂욽뻹쫕죫퓶볓214167풪,뫳헟쫇잰헟뗄88놶ꆣ춼1뻟쳥뗘쏨믦쇋쎿퓶볓튻쓪쫜뷌폽쓪쿞믡떼훂늻춬쫕죫쮮욽헟퓂욽뻹쫕죫믡퓶볓뛠짙풪ꆣ듓룃춼뿉틔쟥돾뗘뾴돶,쯦ퟅ쫕죫쮮욽뗄쳡룟,쎿퓶볓튻쓪쫜뷌폽쓪쿞쯹듸살뗄쫕죫킧틦돊쿖횸쫽쪽퓶뎤,돊쿖돶쏷쿔뗄죃ꆰ뢻폐헟룼뢻폐ꆢ욶쟮헟룼욶쟮ꆱ뗄ꆰ십첫킧펦ꆱꋙꆣꋙ십첫킧펦쫇횸ꆶ탂풼ꆤ십첫뢣틴ꆷ훐쯹붲쫶뗄튻룶죃욶쟮헟룼욶쟮뫍뢻폐헟룼뢻폐뗄맊쫂ꆣ68
2006쓪뗚12웚쇹ꆢꆰ십첫킧펦ꆱ벰웤헾닟몬틥ퟛ뫏놾컄뗄퇐뺿랢쿖,훷튪뷡싛뿉틔놻맩쓉캪헢퇹벸뗣ꆣ뗚튻,퓚늻뾼싇쫐뎡럖룮틲쯘펰쿬뗄쟩뿶쿂,쪹폃OLS벼쫵맀볆뗄훐맺룶죋뷌폽믘놨싊틑뺭뎬맽10%,떫퓚뾼싇쇋쫐뎡럖룮펰쿬뫳쯹맀볆뗄뷌폽ퟜ쳥믘놨싊늢늻룟,횻폐4134%ꆣ헢쮵쏷퓚훐맺뗄샍뚯솦쫐뎡훐,뷌폽뛔쫕죫뗄펰쿬퓚쿠떱듳돌뛈짏쫇춨맽펰쿬뻍튵춾뺶죧톡퓱뻍튵뗘쟸뫍톡퓱횰튵뫍탐튵뗈살쪵쿖뗄,훐맺쒿잰뗄샍뚯솦쫐뎡듦퓚ퟅ뛠훘럖룮ꆣ뗚뛾,폫쫀뷧짏뷌폽믘놨싊뇤뮯뗄튻냣쟷쫆늻춬,훐맺뗄뷌폽믘놨싊돊쿖돶쯦뷌폽돌뛈짽룟뛸퓶볓뗄쿖쿳,쫜맽룟훐벰틔짏뷌폽헟뗄뷌폽믘놨싊욽뻹살쮵튪뇈돵훐벰틔쿂뷌폽돌뛈헟룟519%ꆣ뗚죽,뷌폽믘놨싊늻뷶쯦뷌폽돌뛈뇤뮯뛸뇤뮯,뛸쟒뮹쯦쫕죫쮮욽뛸뇤뮯,ퟮ뗍쫕죫5%뗄죋뷌폽믘놨싊횻폐217%,뛸ퟮ룟쫕죫95%뗄죋뗄뷌폽믘놨싊ퟮ룟듯떽6153%,쫕죫ꆢ뷌폽돌뛈틔벰뷌폽믘놨싊횮볤햹쿖돶튻훖죃ꆰ욶쟮헟룼욶쟮ꆢ뢻폐헟룼뢻폐ꆱ뗄ꆰ십첫킧펦ꆱꆣ뛔폚훐맺뗄랢햹살쮵,놾컄뗄퇐뺿랢쿖뻟폐헢퇹벸룶쏷좷뗄헾닟몬틥ꆣ뗚튻,뷌폽믘놨싊쯦뷌폽돌뛈퓶볓뛸퓶볓틢캶ퟅ뷌폽퓚훐맺뻟폐뇟볊킧틦뗝퓶뗄쳘뗣,춶폚뷌폽틲뛸믡듸살뻞듳뗄뺭볃쫕틦,쳡룟뷌폽쮮욽늻뷶폐훺폚룶죋쫕죫뗄쳡룟,뛸쟒듓뎤풶살뾴튲ퟮ훕믡폐훺폚쯵킡쫕죫닮뻠ꆣ뗚뛾,퓚훐맺쒿잰샍뚯쓪쇤죋뿚욽뻹쫜뷌폽돌뛈뗍폚돵훐(듳풼캪815쓪)뗄쟩뿶쿂,룟훐틔짏뷌폽돌뛈뗄뷌폽믘놨싊ퟮ룟틢캶ퟅ쫕죫닮뻠삩듳폐ퟅ살ퟔ쫐뎡솦솿뗄쟽뚯,헢뇭쏷훐맺쒿잰쯆뫵헽뒦퓚뿢쓹쟺쿟훐쫕죫닮뻠늻뛏짏짽뗄랢햹뷗뛎ꆣ뗚죽,퓚쫕죫닮뻠늻뛏삩듳뗄랢햹뷗뛎,튪쿫폐킧뗘뛴훆쫕죫닮뻠늻뛏삩듳뗄쟷쫆,뻍뇘탫뿬쯙쳡룟샍뚯헟폈웤쫇뗍뷌폽쮮욽뫍뗍쫕죫쮮욽뗄샍뚯헟뗄쫜뷌폽쮮욽,죧맻컞램쪹헢늿럖죋뗄뷌폽쮮욽뺡뿬쳡룟떽튻뚨돌뛈죧룟훐뷗뛎,쫕죫닮뻠뻍늻뿉쓜돊쿖돶쯵킡뗄쟷쫆ꆣ틲듋,퓚훐맺떱잰뗄랢햹뷗뛎,퓬돉쫕죫닮뻠삩듳뗄풭틲돽쇋럇쫐뎡탔뗄틲쯘췢,튲폐ퟅ쫐뎡놾짭뗄풭틲,듓헢룶틢틥짏쮵,쫕죫닮뻠삩듳쫇튻훖쫐뎡쪧냜뗄닺컯ꆣ뿋럾헢훖쫐뎡쪧냜뗄룹놾냬램뻍쫇튪랢믓헾뢮뗄ퟷ폃,춨맽복짙죋솦놾뗄늻욽뫢살복죵쫕죫닮뻠삩듳뗄쟽뚯솦,헢뻍튪쟳헾뢮튻랽쏦튪믽벫쪵쪩쿲죋춶뗄햽싔,춬쪱퓚쪵쪩헢튻햽싔뗄맽돌훐뮹뇘탫룼뛠뗘쿲쟮죋뫍죵쫆좺쳥쟣킱ꆣ뻟쳥살쮵,ퟅ퇛폚쯵킡쫕죫닮뻠뗄헾닟뿉틔뾼싇헢퇹솽룶붨틩:튻쫇뾼싇냑맺볒틥컱뷌폽쳡룟떽룟훐뷗뛎,놾컄뗄쪵횤뷡맻틢캶ퟅ,횻폐떱샍뚯헟뗄욽뻹쫜뷌폽쮮욽듯떽룟훐뷗뛎틔짏쪱,쫕죫닮뻠닅폐뿉쓜쫕솲;뛾쫇퓚쪵쪩쿲죋춶햽싔뗄맽돌훐뇘탫튪삩듳쿲욶삧뗘쟸뫍뗍쫕죫좺쳥닆헾틆횧뢶,좷놣웤췪돉틥컱뷗뛎뗄뷌폽,틲캪횻폐퓚뗍쫕죫쮮욽좺쳥죋솦놾룄짆쯙뛈뎬맽ퟜ쳥죋뿚욽뻹쯙뛈뗄쟩뿶쿂,쫕죫닮뻠퓚쒿잰뗄랢햹뷗뛎튲닅폐뿉쓜돊쿖쯵킡쟷쫆ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗돂쿾폮ꆢ캬랽,1998ꆶ:컒맺룟뗈뷌폽룶죋쫕틦싊퇐뺿ꆷꆶ,룟뗈뷌폽퇐뺿ꆷ뗚6웚ꆣ뫮럧퓆,2004ꆶ:훐맺얩듥죋솦놾쫕틦싊퇐뺿ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚12웚ꆣ샮톩쯉ꆢ뫕뿋싼,2004ꆶ:톡퓱욫닮ꆢ뇈뷏폅쫆폫뷌폽뗄틬훊탔믘놨:믹폚훐맺캢맛쫽뻝뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚4웚ꆣ샮쪵ꆢ샮컄뇲,1994ꆶ:훐맺뷌폽춶뗄룶죋쫕틦싊퇐뺿ꆷ,헔죋캰뗈훷뇠ꆶ훐맺뻓쏱쫕죫럖엤퇐뺿ꆷ,훐맺짧믡뿆톧돶냦짧ꆣ샮쪵ꆢ뚡주,2003ꆶ:훐맺돇헲뷌폽쫕틦싊뗄뎤웚뇤뚯쟷쫆ꆷꆶ,훐맺짧믡뿆톧ꆷ뗚6웚ꆣ웫솼쫩,2005ꆶ:맺폐늿쏅샍뚯릤훆뛈룄룯뛔뷌폽쫕틦싊뗄펰쿬ꆪꆪꆪ뛔1988ꆪ1999쓪훐맺돇쫐뷌폽쫕틦싊뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꆷꆶ,뷌폽폫뺭볃ꆷ뗚4웚ꆣ쯯횾뻼,2004ꆶ:훐맺뷌폽룶죋쫕틦싊퇐뺿:튻룶컄쿗ퟛ쫶벰웤헾닟몬틥ꆷꆶ,훐맺죋뿚뿆톧ꆷ뗚5웚ꆣ튦쿈맺,헅몣럥,2004ꆶ:훐맺뷌폽믘놨싊맀볆벰웤돇쿧닮틬럖컶ꆪꆪꆪ틔헣붭ꆢ맣뚫ꆢ뫾쓏ꆢ낲믕뗈쪡뗄뗷닩쫽뻝캪믹뒡ꆷꆶ,닆뺭싛듔ꆷ뗚6웚ꆣ훐탻늿샭싛뻖,2005ꆶ:2005샭싛죈뗣쏦뛔쏦ꆷ,톧쾰돶냦짧,뗚72튳ꆣ69
헅뎵캰:죋솦놾믘놨싊뇤뮯폫쫕죫닮뻠ꆰ:십첫킧펦ꆱ벰웤헾닟몬틥Brauw,AlandeandRozell,Scott,2004,ꆰReconcilingtheReturnstoEducationinRuralChinaꆱ,requestbye2mail:@,David,1999,:AshenfelterOrley,David(Eds),HandbookofLaborEconomics,,NewYork,ꆪ,BeltonM.,andWang,Xiaojun,2005,ꆰReturnstoSchoolinginChinaunderPlanningandReformꆱ,JournalofComparativeEconomics,Volume33,pp265ꆪ,Haizheng,2003,ꆰEconomicTransitionandReturnstoEducationinChinaꆱ,EconomicsofEducationReview,Volume22,pp317ꆪ,HaizhengandLuo,Li,2004,ꆰReportingErrors,AbilityHeterogeneity,andReturnstoSchoolinginChinaꆱ,PacificEconomicReview,ꆪ207Li,Hongbin;Liu,PakWai;Ma,Ning;Zhang,Junsen,2005,ꆰDoesEducationPayinUrbanChina?EstimatingReturnstoEducationUsingTwinsꆱ,requestbyE2mail:jszhang@,,N.,2004,ꆰDifferentialRewardstoandContributionsof,EducationinUrbanChinaꆯsSegmentedLaborMarketsꆱ,PacificEconomicReview,,173ꆪ,George,1994,ꆰReturnstoInvestmentinEducation:AGlobalUpdateꆱ,WorldDevelopment22:ꆪ,Philip,Walker,Ian,Woodlley,Paul,2002,ꆰEstimatesoftheEconomicReturntoSchoolingfor28Countriesꆱ,LaborEconomics,9:1ꆪ,Andrew,1996ꆰ,ꆱ,JournalofEconomicPerspectives,ꆪ,XiaogangandXie,Yu,2002,ꆰDoestheMarketPayOff?EarningsInequalityandReturnstoEducationinUrbanChinaꆱ,PSCResearchReport,ꆪ500,requestfromhttp:ΠΠΠpubsΠorbyemail:xgwu@,DennisTao,2005,ꆰDeterminantsofSchoolingReturnsDuringTransition:EvidencefromChineseCitiesꆱ,JournalofComparativeEconomics,Volume33,pp244ꆪ,JunsenandZhao,Yaohui,2002,ꆰEconomicReturnstoSchoolinginUrbanChina,1988ꆪ1999ꆱ,ChineseUniversityofHongKong,Hong,Requestfrome2mailatjszhang@ꆮ:MathewEffectꆯandItsImplicationZhangJuwei(InstituteofPopulationandLaborEconomics,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences)Abstract:Afteranalyzinghowhumancapitalreturnrelatedtoincomedisparity,%,%fortheseniorhighschoolandabove,,educationalreturnseemstoincreasewithincomelevel,thepeoplewiththe95%highestincomeseemstobeabletogettwotimesmorethanthosewiththe5%,theꆮMatheweffectꆯseemsexistingamongincome,educationandeducationalreturn,:EducationalReturn;IncomeDifference;MathewEffectJELClassification:J310,E250,I200(퓰죎뇠벭:췵ꆡ돏)(킣뛔:쿾ꆡ언)70
