1IQGVJiAoU9ZeUaQaObRpNmMtRrPjMpPnOiNsQrP7NpOtONZnPtOwMpNmM
Sachs 26March2026|10:42AMHKT
ASIAECONOMICSANALYST
China's “Barbell Strategy"” for High-Quality Growth in the 15th FYP
In the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP),policymakers set technology,security,and LishengWang
people's livelihoodastopprioritiesfor China'sdevelopment strategyover
YutingYang
challenges as a“barbell strategy",which consists of further policy push for
high-tech developmenttoraisepotential growthonthe onehand,ensured by Goldman Sachs (Asia) .
social safety net and consumptionto cultivatelong-termdomestic demand
drivers on the other hand.
Comparedtothe14thFYP,policymakersmadesomeadjustmentstotarget
indicatorsforpeople's livelihood and greentransition categories,byadding new
targets for elderly care and childcare enrollment rates,as well as shifting the
priorities from“energy intensityreductions"to“carbon emissions reductions".
Weseestrongpolicycommitmenttopromotingthedevelopmentoftechnology
andenhancingthesecurityofkeysupplychains,incrementalfocus onpeople's
livelihoodand consumption,andamorepracticalapproachforgreentransition.
Although there is no specific growth target for 2026-30 in the 15th FYP, China's
ambitiontodouble2020GDPpercapita andachievethe“moderatelydeveloped
country"statusby2035impliesanimplicitanchorforrealGDPgrowth,whichis
%annualizedover2026-35.
PolicymakersmaintainedthetargettoraiseR&Dspendingby7%annuallyduring
the 15thFYP,and we estimate theamount will likelyreach 3%of GDPby2030,
further narrowing thegap with major DM continued policy push
for R&D and high-tech development, China will likelymaintain its manufacturing
advantage andgain more share in the global markets, inour view.
The15thFYPcontinuestoemphasizetheself-relianceofkeysupplychains.
Meanwhile,policymakers aimtoraisehousehold consumptionbyincreasing
incomes,expandingservicesconsumption,improvingconsumption
environments,and strengthening social safety nets,althoughtheydidn'tprovide
a specificnumericaltargetforhouseholdconsumption rate.
Policymakers alsolay out theagendafor structural reforms in the 15thFYP, on
gradualist approach and require multi-year efforts.
Investors should considerthis report as onlya singlefactor in makingtheir investment Reg AC
certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto
China's“BarbellStrategy”forHigh-OualityGrowthinthe15thFYP
Inthe15thFive-YearPlan(FYP)full report released recently,policymakers set
technology,security,andpeople's livelihood astop priorities forChina'sdevelopment
strategy over 2026-30, echoing the 4th Plenum and reflecting the long-term pursuit for
“"high-qualitygrowth"”and“high-level security".We characterize China's long-term plan
asa“"barbell strategy",whichconsistsoffurtherpolicypushforhigh-tech
developmenttoexplorenewgrowthenginesandraisepotentialgrowthontheone
enhancesocialsafetynetandboostconsumption,tocultivatelong-termdomestic
demanddrivers,ontheotherhand.
Mostof14thFYPtargetsachieved,exceptforcarbonemissionreductions
FYPsserveas comprehensiveguidelinesformedium-termeconomicandsocial
development inChina,helpingtocoordinateresourcesand
policymakers wereabletoaccomplish most of theFYPtargets inrecent
the 14th FYP targets, urbanization, innovation and security metrics all beat, livelihood
and social safetynetmetricswerebroadlyinline,while reductionsto carbonemissions
,based onourestimatesusingNBSannual reports,China's
%during2021-25,andcarbonemissionsperunitofGDPwereloweredbya
tohaverevisedthedefinitionof carbon emissions(some scholarsflaggedapossibility
that carbon emissionsgenerated from industrial production were previously
underrepresented in official statistics, but this problemhas recentlybeen addressed),
%reductiontocarbonemissionsduring2021-25
What'snewinthe15thFYP?
Fromthemajortarget list inthe15thFYP, weseestrongpolicycommitmenttopromoting
the development of technologyand enhancingthesecurityofkey supply chains (.,
energyandfood supply),incrementalfocus onpeople's livelihoodand consumption,and
a more practical approach for green number of targets matches the 14th
FYP(bothat 2o),and indicators in economic development,innovation,and security
categoriesremained
the14th FYPare concentrated in thepeople's livelihood and greentransition categories
(Exhibit 1).
Thetargetof“basicpension insuranceparticipationrate"inthe14thFYPwas
removed,likelyasthe statusquois closetothefull coverage(>95%as of2025)
Instead,anewtargetontheproportionof nursingbedsinelderlycareinstitutions
was introducedtothe15thFYP,aimingto increaseto73%in2030from68%in2025.
Thetarget of“number of nurseriesfor infants under3years oldperonethousand
people”in the14thFYPwas removed and replaced byanewone to increasethe
enrollmentrateof infants inchildcarefacilitiesbyacumulative6ppover2026-30in
years ago, the government has shifted from targeting the number of nurseries to
targetingthechildcareenrollmentrate.
26March2026
In the"greenand low carbon"category,policymakers shiftedtheprioritiesfrom
“energyintensity reductions"in the 14thFYPto“carbon emissions reductions”in the
the “reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDp" indicator was removed from
the“majortarget list" for 15th FYP-although in the main text of the report
policymakers aimtolowerthisbyacumulative10%over2026-30,it'slessbinding
thanfiveyearsago,likelytobetteraccommodatetheexpectedexpansion in
,a newindicatorof“proportionof non-fossil
the 15th FYP (this target was only mentioned in the main text of the 14th FYP);
policymakersaimtoraiseitto25%%in2025,consistentwiththe
State Council's“Action Plan forPeak Carbon Emissions by2030".
Amongothermajortargets,policymakers didn't seta specificrealGDPgrowthtargetfor
2026-30, in line with the practice five years kept the targetof R&D spending
growthunchanged at“above 7%annually",and continued to aim forlaborproductivity
growthhigherthanGDPgrowth and disposable incomegrowthlargely in linewithGDP
, theyaimto raise urbanizationratebya modest 3ppto71%by2030
(from % in 2025 and % in 2020), increase the GDP share of the digital
economy's core industriesto % by 2030 (% in 2024 and % in 2020),1and
2030fromtheir2025levels.
1 Based on the NBS definition, core industries of the digital economy include four major categories: dligital
cannot track the GDP share of the digital economy closely, and thus have to rely on the official announcement
26March 2026 3
Exhibit1:Asummaryofthe20keytargetsinthe15thFYP
14th Five Year Plan (2021-25) 15thFive Year Plan (2026-30)
Indicator
Target Actual TargetCategory
Latest Average/Cumulative in2025
2021-25 2030 2026-30
Keep it within a reasonable Keep it within a reasonable
GDP growth (%) range; targets depend on for 2021-25 range; targets depend on
Economic situations every year situations every year
development
Labor productivity growth (%) Higher than GDP growth for 2021-25 Higher than GDP growth
Urbanization rate (%) in 2025
R&D spending growth (%) Average growth > 7% 10 for 2021-25 Average growth > 7%
Number of high-value innovation patents (per 10K
Innovation 16 in 2025 >22
people)
Digital economy share of GDP (%) in 2024
Broadly in line with GDP Broadly in line with GDPDisposable income growth (%)
growth
for 2021-25
growth
Surveyed urban unemployment rate (%) < average for 2021- <
Average years of education of working-age
in 2025
Livelihood Number of licensed physicians/registered nurses per
and welfare
in 2025
1K people
Proportion of nursing beds in elderly care institutions
55 68 in 2025
(%)
73
Increase in the enrollment rate of infants (<3 years
6old) in childcare facilities (pp)
life expectancy (years) Increase by 1 yeara in 2025 (implied)
Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of
184
A cumulative for
17AGDP (%) 2021-25
Proporion of non-fossil energy in total energy
in 2025
consumption (%)
Green and
low-carbon Concentration of in prefecture-level and 28 in 2025 <27above cities (micrograms/cubic meter)
Proportion of surface water rated as good or
80 in 2025
excellent quality (%)
Forestcoverage rate (%) in 2024
Comprehensive grain production capacity (mn tons)>650 695 in 2025 ~725
Security
Comprehensive energy production capacity (bn tons
> in 2025 coal equivalent)
A Cumulative increase or reduction in five years; Bolded numbers refer to binding targets. Regarding non-binding targets as guidance, outcomes falling within 9o%
to 110% of these targets are deemed acceptable. Red items are new or significantly different from the 14th FYP.
Source: Government website, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China'slong-termgrowthanchor
Althoughthere isno specificgrowthtargetfor 2026-30 in the15thFYP,China still has an
implicitanchorforrealGDPgrowthto secure
thisyear,PremierLireiteratedChina'sambitiontodouble2o2oGDPpercapitaand
achieve the status of“moderatelydeveloped country"
%annualized realGDPgrowth overthenext decadebasedon
policymakersown estimates specified in the official studyguide on the 4thPlenum (四中
全会学习辅导百间),although it is possible that continued RMB appreciation against USD
could relaxthis constraint since“moderatelydeveloped country"istypicallydefined in
UsDterms ( %required bytheformertarget,based on our estimates).In
ourcurrentbaseline,weprojectthatChina'sannualized realGDPgrowthwillbe4.%for
2026-35(%during2026-30,%during2031-35).
26March2026 4
Signalsfromtextualanalysisonpolicypriorities
Ourtextual analysis basedonthekeyword frequency intheFYP reports overthepast
decades pointedto increased policyprioritiesonconsumption, security&stability,
technology,and green transition,whilethe mentions of“reform"appearlessfrequent
than before (Exhibit 2).Compared with the14th FYP report,the orderof chapters on
“modern industrial system",“digitalization","openingup"”and“people's livelihood”"
ranked higher in the 15th FYP report, implying a higher prominence than five years ago
(seeExhibit 13intheAppendixformoredetails).Wealso comparethe109major
projects for the 15th FYP with the 102 major projects for the 14th FYP, and find
newly-added investment projects are mainly concentrated in Al and high-tech, new
ontraditional infrastructure(seeExhibit14 intheAppendixformoredetails).
Exhibit2:Policymakershavebeenmorefocusedon Exhibit3:China'sR&Dexpenditurecontinuedtorisein
consumption,securityandtechnologyinrecentyears recentyears,thoughstillbelowmanyDMeconomies
% of GDP % of GDP
Index Index R&D expenditure
200 Word count in the FYP adjusted for report length (2021=100)
200
180 180
-US ueder Germany
China India Brazil
160
（消费"）
160Stability
Fyp
140
("稳") 140
120 120
100 100
80
（绿色/环保"）
30
60 60
40 （改革"） 40
20 20
00
0
2016
0
2001 2006 2011 2021 2026
Our word counts are based on the final-version FYP reports. GSe is based on the GS projection of nominal GDP growth and the official
target of R&D spendinggrowthfor 2026-30 unveiled in the 15th FYP
Source: Government websites, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: World Bank, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MoreR&Dspendingandfurtherpolicypushforhigh-techdevelopment
China beat the 14th FYPtargetforR&D spendinggrowth (7%) byachieving 10%
annualized growth during 2021-25,and maintained the 7% target in the15thFYP,
implyingChina'sR&Dspendingwillreach3%ofGDPby2030(%in2025)and its
gapwith majorDM economies will narrowfurther (Exhibit3).With incremental policy
pushforinnovationand high-techdevelopment, Chinawill likelymaintain its
comparative advantage in themanufacturing sector, continue to ascend the global
value-added ladder (shiftingfromlow-end manufacturing to high-tech and high-value
exports),and gainmore share in the global markets (Exhibit 4),in our view.
Al,semiconductors,andthebroadertechnologystackaresignificantareasofpolicy
emphasisfor the15thFYP,in our view. In a recentpress conference, NDRC head Zheng
Shanjie emphasizedthe“6 emerging industries”and"6industries of the future”with
integratedcircuits,aviation&
storage,andintelligent quantumtechnology,
bio-manufacturing,greenhydrogenenergyandnuclearfusionenergy,brain-computer
interface,embodied intelligence,and expects the value added of the"6
26March 2026 5
emergingindustries"tomorethandoubleby2030fromclosetoRMB6tnin2025,and
the economic scaleof Al-related industries to exceed RMB1Otnby end-2030,although it
is unclear how such industries are defined.
As China's economyfaces a shrinking working-agepopulation and investment share of
GDPhasbeenconsistentlyabove4o%overthepasttwodecades,undertheproduction
functionaccountingframeworkwebelievetheoutlookforlong-termGDPgrowthwill
largelydependontotalfactorproductivity (TFP;Exhibit5).TheongoingAl development
andadoption,aswellasthebroadertechnologyadvancementfromautonomousdriving
tobiotechinnovations,willdrivelaborcost savingsandimproveproductivity,whichis
positivefor TFP growth,in our view.
Exhibit4:China's share inglobal manufacturingoutput Exhibit 5: TFP will likely play a larger role in driving China's
continuedtoriseinrecentdecades GDPgrowthduringthe15thFYP
Kok dd/%
Percent
%/pp yoy
Percent
40 40 14 China real GDP growth breakdown by production factor
14
Share in global manufacturing value-added
China 12
Physical capital 12
Germany
Labor
10
Human capital
30 Japan 30 10
United States
TFP
GDP growth
80
GSe
20
6 620
03 Os 07 60 11 13 15 21 1960-1977 1978-2001 2002-2008 2009-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030
The share is measured based on the USD value in 2015 prices. 2023 prints as the latest data available from PWT.
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: PWT, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Neweconomycontinuestooutpacethetraditionalone
Using a comparable methodology andfocusing on a distinct set of indicators, our
analysis reveals that theannualized growth ratesformost new economyactivitymetrics
-particularly EV sales, industrial robot and integrated circuit output, express mailing
services revenue,and passengerflights-haveconsistentlysurpassedthoseassociated
withthetraditionaleconomy,featuredbysteeland cementproduction,thermalpower
generation and railway freight,throughout theperiod from 2021to2025 (Exhibit 6)
Thistrendalignswithpatterns observed during2016-20(althoughlowbasesprobably
flatteredthegrowthrates ofthenew-economysectorsinearlieryears),and weexpectit
tocontinueduringthe15thFYPand evenbeyond.
26March2026
Exhibit6:Activitygrowthrelatedtotheneweconomycontinuedtooutpacethetraditional
one
CAGR (2016-20, % yoy) CAGR (2021-25, % yoy)
New home sales volume
Cement output
Crude steel output
Flat glass output
Coke output
Thermal power generation
Railway freight Old economy
Smartphone output New economy 1
Metal cutting machine output
Passenger flights
Integrated circuit output
Express mailing service revenue
Industrial robot output
New energy vehicle output
10 10 20 30 40 50 20 20
40 09 80
CAGR refers to compound annualized growth rate over a certain period of use 2020-21 average growth rates for
2020 and 2021 when estimating 2016-20 and 2021-25 annualized growth, to adjust for distortions related to Covid
lockdowns.
Source: NBS, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Enhancingthe securityofkeysupplychains
The US-China trade conflicts (in 2018-19 and since 2025),increased tech restrictions,
andheightenedgeopoliticaluncertainties(.,theRussia-Ukraineconflict since2022,
and the most recentMiddle East conflict)havereinforced policymakersfocus on
"self-reliance"to insulatetheeconomyfromaccidental ordeliberateforeign pressures,
especiallyforkeysupplychainssuchasenergyandfood.
andleveragingits large endowment of coal,to securedomestic energysupply,lowerthe
dependenceonenergyimports,,
thesharesofthermalpowerintotalpowergenerationdeclinedto65%in2025from
75% in2015(Exhibit7),althoughtheabsoluteamountof thermal powergeneration
generationroseto11%,6%,and5%,respectively,in2025fromonly3%,1%and3%in
2015.
to power data centers for Al). The 15th FYP target on “comprehensive energy production
capacity"requires %annualized increase over2026-30,%
operatespowerlinescoveringmorethan8o%ofthecountryand delivers electricityto
more than 1 billion people-recentlyannounced theplan to expand its capexby40%
overthe15thFYP (),implyingannualizedgrowthof6%during2026-30.
Moreover, the shifting policyfocus from containing energy intensity to containing
carbonemissionsreflectsChina'splanto copewiththeenergy-intensiveAldevelopment
whileadvancinggreentechnologies, inourview.
Onfood,China'sgrainoutput continuedtoriseoverthepasttwodecades,and the15th
FYPtargetfor“comprehensivegrainproductioncapacity"%annualized
Coal-fueled powergeneration accounted formorethan 90% of thermal powergeneration (equivalentto
morethan 60%oftotal powergeneration).
26March2026 7
realizedannualgrowthduring2021-25,thistargetismoreambitiousthantheoneset
for the 14th FYP (Exhibit 8).3
Exhibit7:Agradual rebalancing inpowergeneration Exhibit 8:Thegrain output target in the15thFYPis more
towardscleanenergy ambitiousthanthe14thFYP
e
m tons mn tons
90 80090 China grain output and govt target for production capacity 800China power supply by source (% of total)
80 80
700 700
70 10
60
Thermalpowe
60 600 600
50 Wind power 50
500 500
40 Nuclear power 40
30
Solarpower
400 400
20 20
300
Grain output
30010
10 Comprehensive grain production capacity: target
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
200 200
80 85 06 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30
Source: Wind, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Comprehensive grain production capacity data are directly from the FYp
reports, referring to secured levels regardless of external shocks
Source: Government websites, Wind, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global
InvestmentResearch
Boostingconsumptionandimprovingpeople'slivelihood
China's household consumption as a shareof GDP experiencedanotable decline during
2000-10,falling by around 10pp to 35% (Exhibit 9).While this share has modestly risen
to around 40% in recent years, Chinese households maintained their high savings rate
andlowconsumption ,the15thFYPexplicitlylisted
“"increasingthehousehold consumptionrate”as onepolicypriority(inthemaintext)for
thefirst time, despite no specific numerical target, and unveiled some implementation
strategies,which are consistent with the State Council's“Special Action Plan to Boost
Consumption”announcedinMarch2025.
Increasinghousehold incomethrough wagegrowth,assetvaluation gains,and
transfer payment. Planned policy efforts include stabilizing and expanding
employment capacity,creating newjob opportunitiesinthedigital economy,green
economy,and silvereconomy,raisingtheminimumwagestandard,improvingthe
businessenvironmentforSMEs,andstrengtheningthesocialsafetynet,especially
forflexible approach aligns with our study indicating that income
flows, ratherthan wealth effects,are major drivers of Chinese household
Expandingservicesconsumptioninareassuchaselderlycare,childcare,culture,
and the labor-intensive nature ofthe services sector,policy initiatives
to boost services consumption could help create a positive cycle of job creation,
incomegrowth, currently
accountingfor46%of China'stotal consumption (% in majorDMeconomies),
The 14th FYP target for 2025 was lower than the 2020 grain output whereas the 15th FYP target for 2030 is
abovethe2025grainoutput.
Household consumption rate here refers to the proportion of household disposable income spent on goods
and services consumption.
26 March 2026 8
thereissubstantialroomforexpansion(Exhibit 1).Recentpolicyrhetoricpointed
toanincreasingemphasis ontheservices sector,but policymeasures remain
small-scale (., the interest rate subsidies to services businesses).
Improvingconsumptionenvironmentsbyeasingrestrictions onhigh-end
consumption,looseningregulatoryconstraintsinspecificindustries,strengthening
consumption-related infrastructure (.,sportsarenasandelderlycarefacilities),
increasing public holidaysandpaid leaves toprovidemore opportunitiesfor services
consumption,and attractinginboundtripsandinternational
these measures are still intheexperimental phaseforpolicymakers to find out what
policiesaremore effective inboosting consumption.
Exhibit 9:China's household consumption rateremained Exhibit 10:China'sshareof services consumption intotal
largelystableinrecentyears,albeitwellbelowmajorDM householdconsumptionalsoremainswellbelowmajor
economies DMeconomies
%ofGDP % of GDP.
Percent Percer
80 80 80 Services consumption share in total household consumption
South Korea
US
70
70 South Kore
Japar
60
30
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1962197019781986 19942002201020182026
20
1930 1946 1954
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China's elevated household savings rate presents a significant bottleneckto promoting
domestic consumption,and this,according to academic studies,isrooted in the
perceived inadequacy of the social safety net, compelling householdsto savemorefor
,China'sgovernment
expenditureonsocialinsuranceremainslowcomparedtomajoreconomies(Exhibit
11).5
Policymakers have been emphasizing the importance of“investing inpeople"(vs.
“investing in goods")in recent years, and pledged for incremental funding supportfor
critical areas such as childcare, elderly care,education,and newtargets
in the15th FYPon elderly care and childcare serveas , in
response tofalling and ageing population, policymakers are stepping up efforts to boost
childbirths,through childbirth subsidies,taxbenefits,morepaid leaves,better
childcareservices,
whetherthesepoliciescan effectivelyslow China'sfallingbirthrates.
According to the OECD SOCX database, social spending includes spending on“old age, survivors.
social policy areas."
In 2025, the Chinese government launched a nationwide childbirth subsidy program, offering RMB 3,600
annually for each child until they reach three years old, totaling an estimated RMB1oobn government spending
facilitate a long-term rebalancing towards consumption.
26 March 2026 9
Exhibit11:China'spublicsocialexpenditure(as%ofGDP)remainedbelowmostOECD
countries
Percent Percent
35
Share of public social expenditure in GDP
30
30
25 25
20 20
15
10
N
LuxembUnited
8
Numbers are based on the 2021 data (the latest available).
Source: OECD Social Expenditure Database (SOCX),Zhang and Yue (2024)
Structural reformscould unlockgrowthpotentialoverthelong-term,butthepace
willbegradual
Policymakers alsolay out the agenda for structural reforms duringthe15thFYP, onfiscal,
financial, social safetynetand market fronts(Exhibit 12).Compared to the14thFYP, new
reformmeasuresonthe15thFYPagenda include"reasonablyincreasing"theshareof
fiscalspendingonpublicservices,"removingunreasonablerestrictions”for
consumption,graduallyraisingpension standard forurbanand rural residents,
improvingpoliciestoboostbirthrates,improvingthevisaandshortstaypoliciesto
facilitate inbound trips,promoting the supplyof“quality homes",and improving the
mechanism to support long-termcapital entering the capital markets (seeExhibit 14 in
theAppendixfora moredetailedcomparisonwiththe14thFYP).Thesereformmeasures
mayhelpunlockgrowthpotentialoverthelongterm,buttheirimplementationmay
followagradualist approachandrequiremulti-yearefforts.
Separately,policymakerspledgedtopushforwardtheconsumptiontaxreform
(includingmovingthepointoftaxrevenuecollectionfromproduction/importstagesto
wholesale/retail stages,andallocatingpart of therevenuetolocal governments)inthe
14thFYP,andcalledforafasterpaceofsuchreformduringthe2025TwoSessions",but
theprogressappeared policymakers may continueto implementthe
consumptiontaxreformduringthe15thFYP,whichmayprovidelocalgovernmentsan
important source of revenue in the“post-property"era and thus givethem higher
incentivetogrowlocalconsumptioninalong-termorientedmanner.
26March2026 10
Exhibit12:Newreformmeasuresoutlinedinthe15thFYP
15thFYP(202
Reasonably increasing theshare offiscalspending onpublic services, increasing localgovemments'disposablefinancial
Fiscal
lands, housing and infrastructure
Improving the mechanism for base money injection and structural monetary policy toolbox, improving the mechanism to
supportlong-termcapitalenteringthecapitalmarketscultivatingop-tierinvestmentbanksand institutionsenhancin
Financial the quality oflisted companies, steadily promoting e-CNY, developing an independent and controllable RMB cross-border
payment system,developing offshore RMB markets,accelerating the development of Shanghai as an international
financial center
Removing unreasonable restictions for consumption, improving the environment for inbound consumption, implementing
Consumption thepaid leave mechanism,encouragingfexibleand staggered leave improving the pricing mechanism forpetroleum
natural gas, electricity and water
Gradually raising pension standard for urban and rural residents,gradually removing frictions on Hukou and socialSocial safety
securitytofacilitate theflows oflaborandtalents,enhancingthefunding sourcesforsocialsecurityfunds (
net
state-owned assets), improving policies to boost birth rates
Promoting an orderly opening up in the telecommunications, internet, education, culture and healthcare industries
Openingup
standard,encouraging eligible corporates on overseas investmentandcollaboration
Promoting a concentration of state-owned capital towards national security. public services and strategically important
SOEand POE emerging industries, encouraging POEs to participate in railways,nuclear,hydropower and water supply related
investment, pushing forward the opening up of infrastructure sector to POEs
Enhancingpublichousingprovisiondeeeninghousingprovidentfundrefomorderypromotingthesalesofcompleted
Property housing (vs. presales). granting city-level government discretion in local housing policy adjustment, promoting the supply
of"quality homes', improving land supply and disposal of idle housing assets
Source: Government websites, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
LishengWangand YutingYang
WethankSamsonYau,aninternontheAsiaEconomicsteam,forhiscontributiontothisreport.
26March2026 11
Appendix
Exhibit13:Acomparisonoftheorderingofchaptersbetweenthe14thand15thFYPreports
Rank in15th Rankin 14th Comnaredwith
FYP FYP
Iintroduction 1 1
Proe20majortargewithincrementalfcusonle'slivelioodandumionand
more practical approach for green transition and decarbonization.
Modem Industrial System 2 3 一 Regulating disorderly price-cutting and excessive compettion among producers.
Innovation /Technology 3 2 new-quality productive forces.
Digialization 4 5 一
Stnghnhficnsuppyfomputingoweralgorithmanddataadanthdoym
Domestic Market 5 4
Socialist Market Economy 6 6 Accelerate the building of a strong fnancial nation.
opening Up 7 11 一 internet, education, culture, medical care, and other fields.
Agriculture 8 7
Strengthen agricultural science and technology and equipment support, and build a diversified food
supply system.
Increasetheproportionof migrant workers participating inurban employeesocial insurance,and
Regional Development 80
schemes.
Culture 10
Population 11 12 一 and children's education, and expand the coverage of the matermity insurance system.
Livelihood 12 13 一 Add one section on 'promote high-quality development of real estate*
Green 13 10 Shifted the prioritiesfrom'reductions to energy intensity'to'reductions to carbon emissions
Enhance security assurance capabilities in key areas such as grain reserves, oil and gas exploration,
Security 14 14 development and reserves, coal-to-oil and gas bases, strategic material reserves, and emergency
rescue.
Military 15 15 unmanned inteligent combat forces and countermeasure capabilities, and strengthen the upgrading
and modernization of traditional combat forces.
Political 16 16 Discussion similar to that in the 14th FYP
HK-Macao-Taiwan affairs 17 17 Discussion similar to that in the 14th FYP
Institution 18 18 Discussion similar tothatin the 14thFYP
The 15th FYP report consists of 18 chapters, with each chapter focusing on a specific area of the economy and/or policy. Compared to the 14th FYP, which includes
*"urbanization” and “Chapter 10" on"regional development" in the 14th FYP as“Chapter 9", and bring forward the following chapters accordingly.
Source: Government websites, Datacompiled by Goldman Sachs GlobalInvestment Research
26March2026 12
Exhibit14:Asummaryof the109majorprojects inthe15thFYP
Enhancing Industrial Capabiliti Advanced New Materials, Industrial Com
nts and Parts, Foundational and industrial software, Machine Tools, High-End Instruments and
elmenatedTranonNewok
Development of New Energy System
Major Hydropower Proje Offshore Wind
Development of Modern Water Network Flood Prevention, Mitigation, and Disaster Risk Reduction, Major Water Diversion and Transfer Projects, Water Supply and Irigation
nce and Research, Prevention and Treatment of
Enhancing Foundational Innovation Capabllies
,Science and Technology Foundationa
Al+ Initiative
Al+Sciennce & Technology, Al+ Industrial Development, Al+ Consumption Upgrade, Al+ People's Livelihood, Al+ Governance, Al+ Global
Upgrading the Platforms of Opening-Up
nan Free Trade Port, Pilot Free Trade Zone,Border Cooperation Platform, Border Customs, ChinaEurope (Eurasia) Freight Train
Modernizing Agriculture and Rural Areas
lomntModm Seed IndustyvelomnAnimalandPlantDiseasePrevnonandPstContrcAgicuturalN
Urban Renewal and Metropolitan-Circle Development
in and Upgrade, Improving Livability and Housing Security, Renovation of Aging Neighborhoods and
ndustrial Sites, Enhancing Intercity Commuting Efficiency within the Metropolitan Circ
Prosperous Development of Socialist Culture
tionof The P: ative Thories,Guidance and Supporfor HighQuaity Artistic Works,Constructionof Public Cultur
Facilities, Protection, Inheritance, and Utlization of Cultural Heritage, Deep Integration and Development of Culture and Tourism
Building a High-Qulily Education System
Expanding and Improving Quay of Basic Educalion, Expanding High-Quality Higher-Educaticn Capacity, Building a Moderm Vocational Education
System, Hymghalyhh
Advancing the Healthy China initiative
Medine, Developing Sports Venues and Facily infrastructure
Upgrading Services for Eiderly and Children
portfor Key Groups, TheSkills lluminate the Future" Training Initiative, mproving the Quality of Public
thening Care and Support for Children in Dificulty and Left-Behind Children, EEnhancing Social Care and Support Services orVeterans
Improving Secesfor Persons WitnDisabilties, Improving PublicWelfareFuneraland Burial Sorvic
ergy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in KeyIndustries,Clean Substitutionfor Coal Consumption,Developing Zero-Carbon Industrial
Peaking Carbon Emissions and Achieving Carbon Neutralty
Upgrading Air Pollution Prevention and Control. Coordinated Managementof Water Resources, Water Emvironment,and Aquatic Ecology, Sourc
Improving EnvironmentalQualty
Waste,
Eclogical Proteclion and Resloratin angtze River Basin, the Southem Hily and Mountainous Beltand the Coastal Zone; Bulding the Protected Areas System and Protecting
Wildife and Wild Plants
Enhancing Security Assurance Capabilties in Key AreasGrain Reserves, Oland Gas Exploration,Developmentand Resrves, Coal-toLquids and Coalto-Gas Base,New Breakthoughs in Mineral
Highlights in orange refer to tech-related new projects in the 15th FYP compared to the 14th FYP, and highlights in blue refer to other new projects.
Source: Government websites, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
26March2026 13
Exhibit15:Reformagendaoutlinedinthe14thand15thFYPs
Reaonabyincreasingthproortionoprofitstransferedfromstateownedapitalperation
Deepening the budget management system reform, improving the transfer payment systemthegoven
Fiscal deepening the zero-based budget reform, raising the share of direct taxes, increasing local
income tax, consumption tax and VAT, pushing forward the legislation of property tax, andgovemments disposable financial resources, appropriately strengthening the central government's
enhancing the mechanism for tax revenue collection administrative powers and increasing the share of central government spending, enhancing the
disposal of idle lands, housing and infrastructure
Financial
ativesandasset
system the inclusiveness ofinancial market, increasing the share of direct financing (especially equity
financing),.orderly promote financial innovation under the premise of prudentialsupervisionmaksculiva-imnu,adilymtin
accelerating the development of Shanghai as an intemational financial center
Promoting the healthydevelopmentof propery and equity markets,enhancing thequaltyoflisted
Capital and
FXmarkets eventing the disorderly expansion of capital, strengthening the development ofthblaancingapinin
RMB cross-border payment system controllable RMB cross-border payment system, developing offshore RMB markets
Removingueanablerstricionsfrcnumptionmroving theeviroment forinbound
Consumption
Easing entry barriers for services consumption market, implementing the paid leave
ehacingmchanmforgmmpurchasfsvicmpovinghricing
consumplion, implementing the paid leave mechanism, encouraging flexible and staggered leave,
mechanism, improving the policy of duty-free shops in cities,
mechanism for petroleum, natural gas, electricity and watet
Social safety
ownmfmilendecialdffuie,rmovingalestrictiosonH
standard for urban and rural residents, imprwing the multi-layer social assistancerstemfor
net Hukou and social security to facilitate the flows of labor and talents, enhancing the funding sources
egistration in cities with a population (by residence) of less than 3 millionfor social security funds (, from state-owned assets), improving policies to boost birth rates
Promoting an orderly opening up in the telecommunications, intemet, education, culture and
Gradually pushing forward the opening up of telecommunications, internet, education, culure
Openingup increasing the market openig up for the leastdeveloped countries and potentialtrading partners.
gradually pushing forward the development of Hainan Free Trade Port dveoping HainanFreeTradePofllowingahighstandardenouragingeligibleoporaesAaifga
Resource
Further removing the bottienecks for developing a unified national market, improving the corporate
allocation
resource (rejallocation, lowernng tne economy-wide transaction costs, establishing and
1 a coordinated manne improving national logistics network, and deepening land market reforms
StrengthenngthPartyleadershipandopoategoemanrEaccelratingh
Promoling a concentration of state-owned capital towards nalional security, public services and
SOEand POEcentralized and unified supervision of operating state-owned assets, lowering the market entry
barriers for POEs, improving the long-term mechanism to address arrears to SMEs
hydropower and water supply related investment, pushing forward the opening up of infrastructure
sector to POEs
Enhancing public housing provision, deepening housing provident fund reforms, ordery promoting
Property
hummthupfqualtymmovingup
disposal of idie housing assets
Source: Government websites, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
26March2026 14
Disclosure Appendix
Reg AC
We, Lisheng Wang and Yuting Yang, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views, which have not
been influenced by considerations of the firm's business orclient relationships.
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research division.
Disclosures
Regulatory disclosures
DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations
See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or
co-managerin a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership;compensationforcertain services;types ofclient relationships;managed/co-managed
public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities,market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs trades or may trade as a
principal in debt securities (or in related derivatives) of issuers discussed in this report.
The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts,
compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as officer
officer,director or advisor of any company in the analyst's area of : may not be associated persons of
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 or FINRA Rule 2242 restrictions on communications with a subject
company,public appearances and trading in securities covered bytheanalysts.
Additional disclosuresrequired underthelaws andregulations of jurisdictionsotherthantheUnited States
The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and
:Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd and its affliates are not authorised deposit-takinginstitutions (as that term is defined in the
Banking Act 1959 (Cth) in Australia and do not provide banking services, nor carry on a banking business, in research,and any access to
it, is intended onlyfor“wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act, unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. In
partorinwholebytheissuer reasonable in the specific circumstances relating to
should,beforeacting on any such
advice,consider certain
Brazil: Disclosure information in relation
toCVMRes
primarilyre esponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchrepor sdefinedinArticle20of VM Resolution n. 2o, is the first author named at the beginning
not, and under nocircumstances solicitation by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC for purchasers of
securities in Canada to trade in any Ca & is not registered as a dealer in any jurisdiction in Canada under
applicable Canadian securities laws and generally is not permitted to trade in Canadian securities and may be prohibited from selling certain securities
Sachs Canada Ino
securities of covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) . India: Further information
Analyst
IdentityNumberU74140MH2006F %ormoreof
the securities (as such term is defined in clause ts(Regulation)Act, ,1956)ofthesubjectcompanyorcompanies
Registration mediary orprovide anyassurance of returns to
investors Goldman contactdetailscanbefoundat
nttps:// , and a copy of the annual audit
::
clalServices s and Capital Markets Act,
unlessotherwise red to in this research may be obtained
fromGoldman
ofcertainGoldmanSachs
new-zealand/.
sianlegislation,butareinformationandanalysis
ianlegislationonappraisalactivity
Researchrep and regulations,are not addressed to a
e, accepts legal responsibility for this
research,andshouldbecontactedwithre
only and must not be reprinted without permission. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the
responsibility of the individual investor ons who would be categorized as retail clients in the United Kingdom, as such term is
defined in the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered
companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks
EuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom:Disclosure information in relation toArticle6 (2)of the EuropeanCommissionDelegated Regulation (EU)
26 March2026 15
implemented intoUnitedKingdomdomestic lawand regulationfollowingthe UnitedKingdom'sdeparturefromthe European Unionandthe European
Economic Area) with regard to regulatory technical standardsfor the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment
recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of
conflicts of interest is available at which states the European Policy for Managing Conflicts of
Interest in Connection with Investment Research.
Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer registered with the Kanto Financial Bureau under registration number Kinsho 69,
and a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association, Financial Futures Association of Japan Type Il Financial Instruments Firms Association, and
Investment Management Association of and purchase of equities are subject to commission pre-determined with clients plus consumption
Associationorthe Japanese Securities Finance Company.
Globalproduct;distributingentities
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs on a global based
in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities
and portfolio research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 21 006 797 897); in Brazil by Goldman Sachs
do Brasil Corretora de Titulos e Valores Mobiliarios .; Public Communication Channel Goldman Sachs Brazil: 0800 727 5764 and/or
contatogoldmanbrasil@ Weekdays (except holidays), deComunicacao com oPublico Goldman Sachs Brasil:
0800 727 5764 e/ou contatogoldmanbrasil@. Horario de funcionamento: segunda-feira a sexta-feira (exceto feriados), das 9h as 18h; in Canada
by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) ; in India by Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Ltd,; in Japan by
Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) ., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs New Zealand
Limited; in Russia by 000 Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States
of America by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United
Kingdom.
Goldman Sachs International ("GSI"),authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority ("PRA")and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority
("FCA") and the PRA, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom.
European Economic Area: Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE ("GSBE") is a credit institution incorporated in Germany and, within the Single Supervisory
Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt fur Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, BaFin) and Deutsche Bundesbank and disseminates research within the
European Economic Area.
Generaldisclosures
This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we
consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates and
forecasts contained hereinare as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as
of reports arepublished at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst'sjudgment.
Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management,and brokerage have investment
banking and otherbusiness relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies coveredby Global Investment Sachs & Co
LLC, the United States broker dealer, is a member of SIPC ().
Our salespeople, traders,and other professionals mayprovide oralor written market commentary ortrading strategies to ourclients and principal
trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, principal trading desks and
investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research.
We and our affiliates,officers, directors,and employees will from time to timehavelong or shortpositions in,actas principalin,and buyor sell, the
securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research, unless otherwise prohibited by regulation or Goldman Sachs policy.
The views attributed to third party presenters at Goldman Sachs arranged conferences, including individuals from other parts of Goldman Sachs, do not
necessarily reflect those of Global Investment Research and arenot an officialview of Goldman Sachs.
Any third party referenced herein, including any salespeople, traders and other professionals or members of their household, may have positions in the
products mentioned that are inconsistent with the views expressed by analysts named in this report.
This research is focused on investment themes across markets, industries and does not attempt to distinguish between the prospects or
performance of, or provide analysis of, individual companies within any industry or sector we describe.
Any trading recommendation in this research relating to an equity or credit security or securities within an industry or sector is reflective of the
investment theme being discussed and is not a recommendation of any such security in isolation.
This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal.
It does not constitute a personal recommendation ortake intoaccount theparticular investment objectives,financial situations, or needs of individual
should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitablefor their particular circumstances and, if appropriate,
exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments.
Certain transactions,including those involving futures,options,and other derivatives,give riseto substantial risk and are not suitablefor all investors.
Investors should review current options and futures disciosure documents which are availablefrom Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at
costs may be significant in option strategies callingformultiple purchase and sales of options such as documentation will be
supplied upon request.
Differing Levels of Service provided byGlobal Investment Research: The level and types of services provided to you by Goldman Sachs Global
Investment Research may varyas compared to that provided to internal and other external clients of GS,depending on variousfactors including your
As an example, certain clients may request to receive notifications when research on specific securities is published, and certain clients may request
that specific data underlying analysts' fundamental analysis available on our internal client websites be delivered to them electronically through data
feeds or otherwise. No change to an analyst's fundamental research views (-, ratings, price targets, or material changes to earnings estimates for
26 March 2026 16
equity securities), will be communicated to any client prior to inclusion of such information in a research report broadly disseminated through
electronic publication to our internal client websites or through other means, as necessary, to all clients who are entitled to receive such reports.
All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client websites. Not all
research by third party aggregators. For research, models or other data related to one or more securities, markets or asset classes (including related
Disclosure information is also available at or from Research Compliance, 2oo West Street, New York, NY
10282.
@2026GoldmanSachs.
You are permitted to store, display,analyze,modify,reformat, and print the information made available to you via this service only for your own use.
You may not resell or reverse engineer this information to calculate or develop any index for disclosure and/or marketing or create any other derivative
finetune a machine learning or artificial intelligence system, or to provide or reproduce this information, in whole or in part, as a prompt or input to any
such system.
26March2026 17
