124낲퇴쪦랶톧풺톧놨2005쓪얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡쳘헷벰돉틲퇐뺿뫎틷(벪쇖듳톧뺭볃톧풺,벪쇖뎤뒺ꆡ130012)[햪ꆡ튪]ퟮ뷼벸쪮쓪,얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡랢짺쇋쾷뻧탔뇤뮯,닺짺쇋뻞듳닮틬ꆣ얷훞맺볒평60쓪듺뗄돤럖뻍튵랢햹떽쒿잰뗄돖탸룟쪧튵,쏀맺좴듓춬웚뗄쿠뛔뷏룟쪧튵돉릦쪵쿖쇋룟뻍튵퓶뎤ꆢ뗍쪧튵싊ꆣ좻뛸,춬룟쪧튵뗄얷훞맺볒쿠뇈뷏,냩쯦쏀맺룟뻍튵퓶뎤뗄좴쫇쫕죫닮뻠ꆢ욶뢻닮뻠뗄늻뛏삩듳ꆣ헢훖쿖쿳닺짺뗄풭틲쫇얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡훆뛈낲업뗄늻춬ꆣ퓚듋믹뒡짏,얷쏀룷맺뛔샍뚯쫐뎡뷸탐쇋늻킸뗄룄룯ꆣ[맘볼듊]샍뚯쫐뎡;쪧튵;훆뛈낲업[훐춼럖샠뫅]ꆡꆡꆡ[컄쿗뇪쪶싫]Aꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]167125330(2005)0220124205ꆡꆡ뛾햽뫳,컷랽맺볒뚼웕뇩죏캪샍뚯쫐뎡뗄랱뗄%ꆣ좻뛸,70쓪듺솽듎쪯폍캣믺횮뫳,쯦ퟅ죙뫍뺭볃랢햹쾢쾢쿠맘,틲뛸웕뇩췪짆룷ퟔ샍뚯좫쟲뮯뫍탅쾢쪱듺뗄떽살,얷쏀뗄쪧튵ힴ뿶랢짺쫐뎡훆뛈ꆣ떫쫇,평폚룷맺퓚볛횵맛뫍랢햹쒣쪽쇋쾷뻧탔쓦(볻춼1)ꆣ쳘뇰쫇ퟮ뷼뛾쪮쓪,쏀짏듦퓚닮틬,떼훂얷쏀맺볒퓚웤룷ퟔ뗄샍뚯쫐뎡맺뒴퓬쇋룟뻍튵뗍쪧튵싊,뛸얷훞맺볒좴돖탸뷏훆뛈뗄낲업짏듦퓚뫜듳늻춬,늢뷸튻늽짮풶펰쿬룟뗄쪧튵싊ꆣ듓80쓪듺훐웚떽2000쓪,쏀맺뗄떽룷맺샍뚯쫐뎡뗄퓋탐뷡맻ꆣ얷훞맺볒뎫떼짧뻍튵늻뛏퓶볓,쪧튵싊뷸튻늽듓%붵뗍떽쇋믡뢣샻맺볒,퓚샍뚯쫐뎡훆뛈뗄낲업짏닠훘뾶뾮4%ꆣ뛸퓚춬웚뗄얷훞맺볒,쪧튵싊튻횱캬돖룟폚뗄쪧튵뻈볃ꆢ퇏샷뻍튵놣뮤뫍룟벯훐뮯뗄릤믡ퟩ%뗄룟쪧튵쮮욽ꆣ횯ꆣ헢훖훆뛈낲업뗄뷡맻쫇얷훞샍뚯쫐뎡붩뮯,뎤웚룟쪧튵,떫쫇맍풱헦쪵릤퓶뎤ꆢ릤닮뻠틔벰욶뢻닮뻠뷏킡;쏀맺돧짐ퟔ평뺺헹쒣쪽,퓚샍뚯쫐뎡훆뛈낲업짏룼쟣쿲폚폐쿞훆웚뗄쪧튵뻈볃ꆢ뿭쯉뗄뻍튵놣뮤쳵뿮뫍럖즢뮯뗄릤믡ퟩ횯ꆣ웤뷡맻쫇쏀맺샍뚯쫐뎡뻟폐뷏룟뗄쇩믮뛈,퓚릤뚨볛랽쏦쫜떽릤믡뫍헾뢮뗄룉짦뷏짙ꆢ룼춼1ꆡ얷쏀맺볒쪧튵싊뇈뷏뛠뗄ퟔ평쇷뚯샍뚯솦뫍뷏룟뗄뻍튵퓶뎤ꆣ떫쫇웤듎,듓ퟔ좻쪧튵싊뫍뎤웚쪧튵싊뗄뷇뛈,헢훖훆뛈낲업ퟮ훕떼훂쏀맺헦쪵릤뫍쿠뛔릤뾴ꆣ햽뫳,쏀맺ퟔ좻쪧튵싊쟷폚컈뚨,듳풼퓚6%뗄쿂붵룕탔,늢춬쪱볓듳쇋릤쫕죫늻욽뫢뫍쮮욽늨뚯,뛸얷훞맺볒ퟔ좻쪧튵싊좴돊쿖늻뛏짏뷌폽릤닮뇰ꆣ놾컄쫔춼듓훆뛈낲업뗄뷇뛈럖짽뗄쟷쫆(볻춼1)ꆣ춬ퟔ좻쪧튵싊쿠솪쾵뗄쫇뎤컶퓬돉얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡뻞듳닮틬뗄풭틲,틔벰룷맺웚쪧튵싊(뎬맽12룶퓂뗄쪧튵)ꆣ쏀맺뎤웚쪧튵뛔샍뚯쫐뎡뗄룄룯ꆣ싊캬돖퓚3%-6%뗄뷏뗍쮮욽,뛸얷훞맺볒(돽펢맺)뎤웚쪧튵싊뷏룟,웕뇩뎬맽35%(볻뇭1)ꆣ1ꆡ얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡쳘헷닮틬뇭1ꆡ늿럖얷훞맺볒폫쏀맺뎤웚쪧튵싊(%)햽뫳,얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡평폚훆뛈낲업늻춬닺짺뇈뷏(12룶퓂틔짏뗄쪧튵)쇋뻞듳뗄닮틬,쳘뇰쫇ퟮ뷼뛾쪮쓪뗄뇤뮯룼쫇쇮죋돔뺪ꆣ19902001쫗쿈ퟜ쪧튵쓐탔얮탔ퟜ쪧튵쓐탔얮탔,듓쪧튵싊뷇뛈뾴ꆣ햽뫳,얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡뗄쪧튵ힴ뿶랢짺쇋쾷뻧탔뗄뇤뮯ꆣ퓚60쓪듺쏀맺,얷훞맺볒뗄쪧튵싊욽뻹캪%,뗍폚춬웚쏀맺얷쏋[쫕룥죕웚]2005202217[ퟷ헟볲뷩]뫎틷(19762)쓐,뫓쓏낲퇴쫐죋,벪쇖듳톧뺭볃톧풺늩쪿퇐뺿짺,훷튪듓쫂쏀맺뺭볃퇐뺿ꆣ' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚2웚뫎틷:얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡쳘헷벰돉틲퇐뺿125뇈샻쪱램맺뗂맺틢듳샻컷냠퇀펢맺쇏살풴:OECDEm춼2ꆡퟔ좻쪧튵싊뗄뻶뚨쒣탍ploymentOutlook,2002뗚죽,듓쫕죫럖엤뷇뛈뾴ꆣ쏀맺릤죋헦쪵릤헢솽쟺쿟뿉틔평쿂쏦뗄솽룶랽돌살뇭쪾:폐쿂붵뗄룕탔,릤닮뻠폐늻뛏삩듳뗄쟷쫆W/P=Rg(u,Xs)ꆡgu<0(1),뛸얷훞맺볒폫횮쿠랴ꆣ뻝춳볆,1979-1981웚W/P=Af(Xd)(2)볤헢샯W쫇쏻틥릤,P쫇볛룱쮮욽,쫇쪧튵,쏀맺릤죋욽뻹훜릤쫇ꇧ609,떽1994-1998웚볤쿂붵캪ꇧ576(쿂붵룶냙럖뗣),뛸춬웚싊,R쫇놣쇴릤,A쫇ퟜ튪쯘짺닺솦쮮욽(퓚맾얷훞맺볒릤죋욽뻹훜릤럖뇰쫇ꇧ419뫍ꇧ514싞뗂벼쫵훐탔뗄쳵볾쿂)ꆣXs냼삨펰쿬릤뚨볛뗄틲쯘,죧릤믡ꆢ릤뚨볛훆뛈뫍샍뚯솦뗄쇷뚯(짏짽쇋룶냙럖뗣)ꆣ춬쪱,쏀맺늻춬뷌폽돌뛈볤뗄릤닮뻠삭듳ꆣ뻝춳볆,1979떽1995돌뛈뗈ꆣXd듺뇭쓜릻펰쿬뎧짌쯹쳡릩뗄헦쪵릤,듳톧뇏튵짺뗄쫕죫쿠뛔폚룟훐짺퓶볓33%ꆣ뗍뗄틲쯘,샽죧헦쪵샻쾢싊뫍웤쯻뗄럇샍뚯춶죫뷌폽돌뛈뫍뗍킽릤죋뗄헦쪵쫕죫쿠뛔쿂붵,떼훂뗄볛룱ꆣ놣쇴릤B퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏틀삵폚쪧튵릤ퟷ욶삧늻뛏퓶볓ꆣ퓚쏀맺,쪧튵뫜짙쫇욶삧뗄뻈볃ꆢ뿕쿐쪱볤볛횵뫍럇샍뚯쫕죫ꆣ풭틲랽돌(1)냑릤ퟷ캪쇋샍뚯쫐뎡ힴ뿶뗄몯,횻폐6%뗄쪧튵죋풱뒦폚욶삧훐ꆣ릤ퟷ욶삧틑뺭햼떽샍뚯솦뗄5%,듳풼쫽ꆣ샭싛짏뾴살,퓚놣쇴릤늻뇤뗄쟩뿶쿂,샍2/3뗄릤ퟷ욶삧쫇좫횰릤,1/4쫇쇙쪱릤ꆣ쯻쏇욶삧뗄훷튪풭틲뚯쫐뎡풽릩늻펦쟳,쓇쎴헦쪵릤튲뻍풽룟ꆣ퓚쫇릤쫕죫뗍쯹퓬돉뗄ꆣ[1]릩맽폚쟳뗄샍뚯쫐뎡훐,맍풱퓚쳖볛뮹볛훐풸틢뷓쫜뷏뗍뗄릤,뷓뷼놣쇴릤쮮욽;뛸퓚릩늻2ꆡ얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡돉틲럖컶ꆪꆪꆪ훆뛈낲업뇈뷏럖컶펦쟳뗄샍뚯쫐뎡,맍풱쳖볛뮹볛릤붫풶풶룟폚놣쇴릤ꆣ듓쇭췢뗄뷇뛈뾴,릩늻펦쟳뗄샍뚯쫐얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡뗄뻞듳닮틬쫇뫍웤룷ퟔ뗄샍뎡,룼탨튪쳡룟릤살ퟨ횹샫횰(춨맽퓶볓쪧튵뚯쫐뎡훆뛈쏜쟐쿠맘ꆣOECD(1994)퇐뺿놨룦죏돉놾)틔벰쳡룟맍풱뗄릤ퟷ첬뛈ꆣ샍뚯쫐뎡릩쟳캪샍뚯쫐뎡훆뛈낲업뗄닮틬쫇퓬돉얷훞룟쪧튵쫇춨맽뎧짌쯹맍펶죋쫽춬쪧튵죋쫽뗄뇈횵(H/뫍쏀맺릤쫕죫늻뻹뫢뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ얷쏀샍뚯U)살뛈솿,뛸늻쫇볲떥뗄쪧튵싊ꆣ뛔폚쪧튵헟ퟮ쫐뎡훆뛈낲업닮틬훷튪뇭쿖퓚쪧튵뻈볃뷰ꆢ뻍튵훘튪뗄쫇뎧짌뒴퓬뗄맍펶쫽쒿,뛸늻쫇쪧튵죋놣뮤뫍릤믡ퟩ횯뗈랽쏦ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇뾼달뗄훘뗣쫽ꆣ틲듋,뎧짌쯹맍펶죋쫽춬쪧튵죋쫽뗄뇈횵붫쫇늻춬훆뛈낲업믡뛔샍뚯쫐뎡퓬돉쪲쎴퇹뗄(H/U)붫펰쿬릤뚨볛,쫴폚Xsꆣ퓚뺺헹탔샍뚯뫳맻?뻟쳥뛸퇔,튲뻍쫇쪧튵뻈볃ꆢ뻍튵놣뮤뫍쫐뎡,쳡릩릤맘쾵(W/P)튲듺뇭쇋뇪ힼ뗄쿲짏릤믡ퟩ횯죽랽쏦늻춬뗄훆뛈낲업뛔얷쏀샍뚯쫐쟣킱뗄샍뚯릩룸쟺쿟ꆣ뎡퓋탐뷡맻뗄펰쿬ꆣ탨쟳릤맘쾵(랽돌2),퓚춼훐뇭쪾쮮욽쿟컒쏇쫗쿈뾼싇ퟔ좻쪧튵싊뗄뻶뚨틲쯘쒣(W/P)d,쿔쪾헦쪵릤폫뎧짌뗄맍펶뻶뚨튻훂ꆣ탍[2],좻뫳퓚듋믹뒡짏럖컶냼삨쪧튵뻈볃ꆢ뻍튵퓚뎤웚훐,벴ퟣ릻뎤뗄쪱볤쪹뗃뎧짌쓜릻뗷헻냼놣뮤뫍릤믡ퟩ횯퓚쓚뗄샍뚯쫐뎡훆뛈뛔얷쏀맺삨놾뗄쯹폐짺닺튪쯘,컒쏇볙짨뎧짌뗄헦쪵릤볒퓚쪧튵뫍릤쫕죫닮뻠랽쏦뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚춼2뛀솢폚뻍튵쮮욽ꆣ퓚볙짨헦쪵릤춬웤쯻뗄훐,뫡훡뇭쪾뻍튵싊,벴1-ꛌ,쫺훡뇭쪾헦쪵릤춶죫볛룱뫍뎧짌쇣샻죳뗄쳵볾튻훂뗄쟩뿶쿂,헢ꆣퟔ좻쪧튵싊좡뻶폚쿲짏쟣킱뗄(W/P)s쟺쿟뿉틔놻죏캪쫇튪쯘볛룱잰퇘쿟ꆣ듋쪱,탨쟳릤뫍쮮욽(W/P)d쟺쿟쿠붻뗣ꆣ(W/P)s뇭쪾릩룸좡뻶폚짺닺솦쮮욽ꆢ짺닺몯쫽쳘헷뫍냼삨헦쪵샻릤맘쾵(릤뚨볛쟺쿟),쫇뎧짌룹뻝쪧튵몯쫽쾢싊퓚쓚뗄웤쯻춶죫볛룱ꆣ떱뎧짌퓚늻췪좫뺺뛸횧뢶뗄릤ꆣ(W/P)d뇭쪾탨쟳릤맘쾵(볛헹짌욷쫐뎡짏퓋탐,볛룱쿠뛔폚돉놾뗄닮볛튲춬룱뚨볛쟺쿟),쫇뎧짌뿉틔쳡릩뗄릤ꆣ퇹뫍릤폐맘쾵ꆣ퓚릤늻뇤뗄쟩뿶쿂,짌욷볛' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
126낲퇴쪦랶톧풺톧놨2005쓪룱풽룟,뎧짌뢶룸뗄헦쪵릤튲뻍풽뗍ꆣ탸떽뷱쳬ꆣ퓚얷훞,뎤웚돖탸탔뗄룟쪧튵뻈볃떼ퟔ좻쪧튵싊쫇떱쳡릩릤뗈폚탨쟳릤쪱훂뷏룟뎤웚쪧튵,퓬돉ퟔ좻쪧튵싊뗄쳡룟ꆣ헢튻뗄뻹뫢쪧튵싊3uꆣ뷡릹퓚80쓪듺떽90쓪듺뗄룟쪧튵뇭쿖뗄뫜쏷3g(u,X5)=(A/R)f(Xd)(3)쿔ꆣ쳘뇰평폚벼쫵뷸늽,헢킩뎤웚쪧튵헟뗄죋솦헢튻욽뫢뗣퓚춼2훐뇭쪾뗣Eꆣퟔ좻쪧튵싊놾볛룱뇡횵,퓚톰헒릤ퟷ훐뛔릤뗄쳖볛뮹볛춬짺닺솦뫍놣쇴릤뗄뇈싊(A/R)뢺쿠맘,늢쟒뗄펰쿬솦복죵,떼훂(W/P)s쿲짏틆뚯뫍뷏룟뗄틀삵폚웤쯻펰쿬릩룸뫍탨쟳릤뗄틲쯘ꆣ쿂쏦ퟔ좻쪧튵싊ꆣ컒쏇펦폃헢튻쒣탍살럖컶훆뛈틲쯘뛔얷쏀맺샍ꆡ뻍튵놣뮤럖컶뚯쫐뎡쳘헷뗄펰쿬ꆣ뻍튵놣뮤헾닟춨뎣놻죏캪쫇얷훞쪧튵뗄ퟯꆡ쪧튵뻈볃럖컶뿽믶쫗,뛸쏀맺뗄뿭쯉뗄뻍튵놣뮤훆뛈놻죏캪쫇죋쏇뛔쿻럑뗄욫뫃ퟜ쫇컈뚨뗄,떫쫇춻좻뗄뻍튵뿬쯙퓶뎤뗄훺췆웷ꆣ떫뿧맺퇐뺿뇭쏷,퇏샷쪧튵붫펰쿬죋쏇뗄쫕죫,뇘좻쿷죵죋쏇뗄쿻럑욫뗄뻍튵놣뮤춬뷏뗍뗄릤죋쇷뚯뫍룟쮮욽뗄뎤웚뫃ꆣ쪧튵뻈볃훆뛈ퟮ돵틢풸쫇뛔쪧튵죋풱퓚톰쪧튵솪쾵퓚튻웰,늢쎻폐횤쏷뻍튵놣뮤춬헻룶쪧헒탂릤ퟷ맽돌훐쳡릩쇙쪱뗄쫕죫횧돖ꆣ떫쫇,헢튵싊폐맘쾵ꆣ[5]훖훆뛈낲업듦퓚튻뚨뗄좱쿝,죝틗뛔쪧튵헟웰떽뻍튵놣뮤듫쪩냼삨퇏룱뗄뷢맍쿞훆ꆢ램뚨ퟮꆰ뢺벤샸ꆱ킧펦ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵,맽룟틔벰뎤웚뗄쪧튵뗍릤뫍릤ퟷ쪱볤쿞훆뗈ꆣ웤훐,뷢맍쿞훆쫇뻍뻈볃붫펰쿬쪧튵죋풱쿫믱뗃릤ퟷ뗄얬솦돌뛈틔튵놣뮤훐햼폐훘튪뗘캻,뛔샍뚯쫐뎡뗄펰쿬튲ퟮ벰뻖쓚죋쳖볛뮹볛쓜솦,늢뷸튻늽펰쿬떽ퟔ좻쪧캪짮풶ꆣ뷢맍쿞훆뿉쓜닺짺죽훖쿠뮥뛀솢뗄킧튵싊뫍헻쳥쪧튵싊ꆣ1980-2000쓪뗄뿧맺쫽뻝펦ꆣ쫗쿈,뷢맍쿞훆웈쪹뎧짌놣쇴놾듲쯣뷢맍뗄럖컶뇭쏷,뾶뾮뗄쪧튵뻈볃춬뷏룟뗄쪧튵싊쿠솪릤죋ꆣ헢뻍떼훂뛌웚쪧튵싊붵뗍,떫틖훆쇋뎤웚쾵ꆣ[3]맽룟틔벰뎤웚뗄쪧튵뻈볃쓜릻닺짺솽훖킧뻍튵퓶뎤,뿉쓜떼훂쪧튵싊짏짽ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶펦뛸떼훂ퟔ좻쪧튵싊뗄짽룟ꆣ뗚튻훖킧펦쫇쓜쿂,샍뚯쫐뎡잰뺰낵떭,맍풱쳖볛뮹볛쓜솦듳듳릻횱뷓떼훂놣쇴릤쿠뛔폚짺닺솦뗄퓶볓,듓뛸쿷죵,ퟮ훕늻뗃늻뷓쫜뷏뗍뗄릤;웤듎,헢킩쿞쪹뗃(W/P)s쿲짏틆뚯;뗚뛾훖킧펦쫇춨맽뛔쪧훆뿉쓜쿷죵릤죋뫍뎧짌볤뗄욥엤킧펦,쪹뗃욽뻹튵죋풱뗄틆횧뢶뗄퓶볓뇘좻튪퓶볓뻍튵죋풱짺닺솦뫍탨쟳릤쮮욽붵뗍;뗚죽,뷢맍쿞훆붫뗄쮰쫕,듓뛸떼훂(W/P)d쿂틆뚯(볻춼2)ꆣ헢릤죋춬췢늿뗄샍뚯쫐뎡룴샫,퓶잿쇋쯻쏇뗄쳖볛솽훖킧펦쿠뮥뷡뫏,뇘좻떼훂ퟔ좻쪧튵싊뗄듳럹뮹볛뗄쓜솦,떼훂퓚샍뚯쫐뎡쳵볾늻뇤뗄쟩뿶쿂뛈짏짽뫍헻쳥쪧튵싊뎤웚욫룟ꆣ믱뗃뷏룟뗄릤ꆣ퓚춼2훐,탨쟳릤쟺쿟(W/죎뫎뛈솿랽램뚼뇭쏷,쏀맺뛔쪧튵죋풱뫍욶P)d쿂붵,떫쫇쳡릩릤쟺쿟(W/P)s뿉틔죎틢삧죋뿚뗄뻈볃풶풶뗍폚웤쯻얷훞맺볒ꆣOECD랽쿲틆뚯,좡뻶폚맍풱쳖볛뮹볛쓜솦뗄맦쒣킧(1994)춨맽뛈솿21룶맺볒쳦뮻싊,랢쿖쏀맺업펦ꆣ틲듋,뻍튵놣뮤뛔쪧튵뗄펰쿬뻟폐뫜듳뗄쒣떹쫽뗚죽캻,풶뗍폚웤쯻얷훞맺볒ꆣ[4]쇭췢,쏀맺뫽탔,떫쫇뛔뎤웚쪧튵폐훘튪펰쿬ꆣ헢퓚튻뚨돌쪧튵뻈볃웚쿠뛔뷏뛌,튻냣캪6룶퓂,뛸컷얷맺볒뛈짏뷢쫍쇋얷쏀퓚뎤웚쪧튵싊횮볤뗄쳘헷닮틬ꆣ쪧튵뻈볃쎻폐웚쿞ꆣ틲뛸뿉틔죏캪,뛔쪧튵헟뗄OECD(2000)뾼달1985-1990뫍1995-2000솽뷏뗍뫍뛌웚뻈볃쫇쏀맺샍뚯쫐뎡뻟폐뷏잿쇩믮룶뷗뛎29룶맺볒뻍튵놣뮤솢램돌뛈,죏캪쏀맺뗄탔틔벰쒿잰뷏뗍뗄쪧튵싊뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ떫춬퇹놣뮤돌뛈쫇ퟮ뗍,뛸얷훞맺볒놣뮤돌뛈웕뇩욫뗄쪧튵뻈볃닮틬튲듦퓚폚컥쇹쪮쓪듺,뛸떱쪱쏀룟ꆣ[6]맺뇈웤쯻얷훞맺볒폐뷏룟뗄쪧튵싊ꆣ틲뛸탨튪횵뗃힢틢뗄쫇,뺡맜뻍튵놣뮤떥뛀럖컶웤뛔뷢쫍캪쪲쎴쪵탐뢣샻맺볒뗄쪧튵퓚90쓪듺뫜룟,쪧튵뗄펰쿬쪱,뻟폐뫜듳뗄쒣뫽탔ꆣ떫쫇떱퇏샷뛸퓚컥쇹쪮쓪듺뷏뗍쓘?헢샯뿉쓜뗄뷢쫍쫇뾶뗄뷢맍쿞훆춬닺욷쫐뎡얤쟺(ퟨ낭탂웳튵뗄탎뾮뗄쪧튵뻈볃펰쿬쇋뛔뫪맛뺭볃돥믷뗄뚯첬랴돉)쿠뮥ퟷ폃쪱,뻍뿉쓜뛔쪧튵헟믲샍뚯쫐뎡탂펦,뷸튻늽쮵쫇쪧튵뻈볃훆뛈퓚뺭볃돥믷쿂펰쿬뷸죫헟뗄뻍튵닺짺펰쿬,늢틲듋펰쿬떽헻룶쪧튵쪧튵뗄퇝뷸맽돌ꆣ뛔얷쏀맺볒살쮵,냼삨쪯폍캣싊ꆣ뇈죧쮵,닺욷쫐뎡짏좱랦뺺헹,뻍쪹뗃뎧짌믺퓚쓚뗄룷훖돥믷뚼춬쪱떼훂쇋룟쪧튵(볻춼쿞훆닺솿ꆢ쳡룟볛룱,뷸튻늽펰쿬쇋뛔샍뚯솦뗄1)ꆣ떫쫇평폚쪧튵뻈볃훆뛈낲업늻춬,떼훂퓚돥탨쟳ꆣ쇭췢,맍훷뫍맍풱퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂튲뿉쓜뫏믷뫳얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡랢짺쾷뻧탔뇤뮯,늢쟒튻횱돖쒱,쿞훆뺺헹,럖쿭탎돉뗄슢뛏ퟢ뷰ꆣ헢훖뫏쒱' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚2웚뫎틷:얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡쳘헷벰돉틲퇐뺿127쪹뗃쪧튵죋풱룼쓑뷸죫샍뚯쫐뎡ꆣ쏀룷맺볓뿬쇋룷ퟔ뗄샍뚯쫐뎡룄룯ꆣꆡ릤믡ퟩ횯럖컶얷훞맺볒ퟔ짏쫀볍90쓪듺,뻍웕뇩뾪쪼췆탐얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡뗄훘튪쳘헷횮튻쫇릤믡ꆣ릤쇋튻쾵쇐뗄샍뚯쫐뎡룄룯ꆣ램맺ꆢ뇈샻쪱ꆢ낮뛻믡뗄훷튪쒿뗄쫇룄짆릤믡돉풱퓚믵뇒뫍럇믵뇒삼뗈맺쿈뫳붵뗍뛔쓪쟡죋ꆢ뗍릤뗄샍릤ꆢ뎤웚랽쏦뗄뻍튵쳵볾,틲뛸웤ퟷ폃쫇쳡릩쇋벯쳥쳖볛쪧튵헟짧믡낲좫늹훺뷰;낢룹춢캪쇋펦뛔뷏룟뗄뗄랢퇔믺훆ꆣ헢훖벯쳥랢퇔믺훆퓶잿쇋릤죋뗄쪧튵싊,쿷죵릤믡뗄좨솦,쪹룃맺맍훷폐룼뛠맍쳖볛뮹볛쓜솦,폐샻폚룄짆릤죋뢣샻,쳡룟놣쇴펶뫍듇췋맍풱뗄ퟔ평;얷쏋뛔슬즭놤ꆢ볓뗏럲뫍릤쮮욽ꆣ떫쫇,맽폚벯훐뮯뗄릤믡퓲죝틗떼훂뿆슡쳡돶퓶볓샍뚯뫏춬쇩믮탔ꆢ붵뗍룶죋쫕죫슢뛏,듓뛸얤쟺쇋쫐뎡믺훆ꆣ쳘뇰쫇퓚떱벼쫵뇤쮰ꆢ짧믡쪧튵뢣샻뗈랽쏦뗄샍뚯쫐뎡룄룯랽낸ꆣ룯뛸펰쿬떽뛔뗍벼쫵릤죋뗄탨쟳붵뗍쪱,뎧짌탨뷸죫탂쫀볍,얷훞듳맺뗂맺뷸튻늽볓듳샍뚯쫐뎡쟳릤쿂붵,쟺쿟(W/P)d쿂틆,떫쫇잿듳뗄릤믡뗄룄룯,췆돶틔췪짆샍뚯쫐뎡럾컱캪훐탄뗄맾듄쓜릻웈쪹(W/P)s쟺쿟짏틆(춼2)ꆣ웤뷡맻쫇,볆뮮,틔웚췻죽쓪쓚붫쪧튵죋쫽듓쒿잰뗄400췲뺡맜릤믡퓚뢣샻룄짆틔벰복킡벼쫵릤죋뫍럇벼죋복짙떽200췲죋ꆣ쿔뛸틗볻,얷훞맺볒뗄샍뚯쫵릤죋볤뗄릤닮뻠랽쏦웰떽헽쏦펰쿬,떫쫇웤쫐뎡룄룯뗄훷튪쒿뗄쫇쳡룟샍뚯쫐뎡뗄쇩믮탔ꆢ뛔폚헻쳥쪧튵뗄펰쿬좷쫇뢺쏦뗄ꆣ뒴퓬룼뛠뻍튵믺믡,틔뇣뮺뷢얷훞뗄룟쪧튵컊퓚얷훞맺볒,릤믡뮯쮮욽쿠뛔뷏룟ꆣ틲뛸,쳢,쳘뇰쫇뎤웚쪧튵ꆣ틲듋,얷훞맺볒샍뚯쫐뎡얷훞맺볒릤쫜떽벯쳥쳖볛랽쪽펰쿬뗄틲쯘뫜룄룯훷튪닠훘폚죧쿂죽랽쏦ꆣ쫗쿈,뗷헻쿻벫샍잿,뛸쟒탭뛠얷훞맺볒뗄헾뢮퓚릤좷뚨맽돌훐뚯헾닟캪믽벫샍뚯헾닟ꆣ쿻벫뗄샍뚯쫐뎡헾닟튻냣쟣쿲폚냧퇝뷏캪믽벫뗄뷇즫ꆣ웤뷡맻쫇,떱쫇틔쫕죫캪쒿뗄뗄늹뎥헾닟,훷튪냼삨쪧튵놣쿕쏦쇙쿠춬뗄벼쫵뇤룯뫍쿠쯆뗄닺욷쫐뎡솦솿(뇈뷲쳹틔벰쯹폐틔늻닎볓뻍튵믮뚯캪쳵볾뗄뷲쳹죧훆퓬튵캮쯵)뗄쟩뿶쿂,얷훞뗄훆뛈튻냣쟣쿲룸뢶;믽벫뗄샍뚯쫐뎡헾닟퓲평샍뚯쫐뎡훐퓶볓폚캪벼쫵뷏뗍뗄릤죋쳡릩쪵볊릤늻쿂붵뗄놣뫏룱샍뚯릩룸뫍뒴퓬뻍튵믺믡뗈듫쪩릹돉,웤쒿횤ꆣ뛸퓚쏀맺,릤믡쟣쿲폚럖즢뮯,쫐뎡퓚릤뗄쫇쳡룟릤죋뗄뻍튵쓜솦뫍뺭볃쪵쳥쳡릩뻍튵뻶뚨맽돌훐햼폐훘튪뗄뗘캻ꆣ돽쇋릫릲늿쏅췢,믺믡뗄쓜솦ꆣ웤듎,복짙샍뚯쫐뎡훐뗄뻍튵놣횻폐듳룅10%뗄릤죋볓죫릤믡,릤럖엤뫍뢣샻뮤,쳡룟쫐뎡쇩믮탔,쳘뇰쫇퓚샍뚯솦뗄쇷뚯뫍듽폶쫇춨맽뺺헹탔뗄샍뚯쫐뎡살뻶뚨ꆣ쯦ퟅ뿆릤ퟷ쪱볤쿞훆랽쏦ꆣ뗚죽,복죵릤믡솦솿,쿷죵벼뗄뷸늽,쏀맺샍뚯쫐뎡뛔벼쓜릤죋뗄탨쟳뇤뮯벯쳥쳖볛뮹볛쓜솦,쳡룟쫐뎡쳖볛뮹볛쓜솦,퓶풶풶듳폚벼쓜릤죋뗄릩룸ꆣ샍뚯솦탨쟳랽쏦뗄잿릤떯탔ꆣ쯹돶쿖뗄헢훖뇤뮯쟷쫆쿔좻믡뛔럇벼쫵릤죋뗄폫얷훞맺볒쿠뇈뷏,쏀맺샍뚯쫐뎡쟷폚쇩믮쫐뎡뻹뫢릤싊쪩볓튻훖잿듳뗄쿂톹솦솿ꆣ헢탔,쫇뚯첬뺺헹뗄샍뚯쫐뎡,쫐뎡믺훆퓚샍뚯솦춬쪱튲풤쪾쇋쏀맺릤닮뻠늻뛏삩듳뗄쟷쫆ꆣ쇷뚯ꆢ릤뚨볛뫍짧믡뢣샻랽쏦웰훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣ뺡ퟜ뗄뾴살,얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡훆뛈낲업춬룷ퟔ뗄맜헢훖뚯첬뺺헹탔뗄샍뚯쫐뎡쫇룟킧뗄,떫튲늻샍뚯쫐뎡쳘헷쾢쾢쿠맘,룷폐뎤뛌ꆣ얷훞맺볒샍뿉뇜쏢뗄닺짺솽훖뷡맻,벴릤죋듦퓚룟쪧튵럧쿕뚯쫐뎡훆뛈붩뮯퓬돉룟쪧튵ꆢ뗍뻍튵퓶뎤틔벰뷏뫍뗍벼쫵릤죋릤쫕죫뛱뮯뗄쟷쫆ꆣ틲듋,쏀맺룟뗄뎤웚쪧튵,떫릤죋헦쪵릤퓶뎤,듦퓚쿠뛔샍뚯쫐뎡룄룯쒿뗄쫇죧뫎놣뮤쪧튵헟늢쟒벤샸뷏킡뗄쫕죫럖엤늻뻹뫢쿖쿳;쏀맺샍뚯쫐뎡쇩믮쯻쏇룼폐킧뗄퓙뻍튵뫍죧뫎쳡룟뗍벼쫵릤죋뗄탔뷏잿,폐샻폚뻍튵퓶뎤,떫쫇쫐뎡믺훆죝틗퓬릤쫕죫ꆣ1996쓪8퓂,쏀맺잩쫰쇋ꆶ짧믡뢣샻돉릤쫕죫럖엤늻뻹뫢,쳘뇰쫇뗍벼쫵릤죋쫕죫룄룯랽낸ꆷ,퓚놣쇴뛔쪧튵헟놣뮤릦쓜뗄춬쪱,뛔욫뗍,욶뢻닮뻠훰쓪삩듳ꆣ얷쏀맺볒웈쟐탨튪뛔쪧튵뻈볃뷰쇬좡뗄쳵볾ꆢ쫽솿벰웚쿞,ퟷ돶쇋룼샍뚯쫐뎡뷸탐룄룯ꆣ캪뿁뿌뗄맦뚨ꆣ룃룄룯랽낸폐샻폚쪹폐샍뚯쓜3ꆡ얷쏀샍뚯쫐뎡뗄룄룯랽쿲솦뗄쪧튵헟냚췑뢣샻뻈볃,닎폫샍뚯쫐뎡,좴쎻쒿잰,쫀뷧뺭볃룱뻖헽퓚랢짺뻞듳뇤뮯ꆣ얷폐쓜릻폐킧룄짆뗍벼쫵릤죋뗄릤쫕죫ꆣ뷸죫풪웴뚯ꆢ얷쏋뚫삩틔벰얷훞떥튻쫐뎡뗄쪵쿖탨튪21쫀볍,쏀맺뻍튵퓶뎤쪼훕쎻폐룺짏뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쇷뚯탔ꆢ룟킧싊뗄쓚늿샍뚯쫐뎡;쏀맺뺭샺탂뺭늽랥,쪧튵죋쫽벱뻧짏짽,뗍벼쫵릤죋릤룼폐볃뗄룟쯙랢햹횮뫳,뺭볃뒦폚늻뺰웸ힴ뿶,쪧튵쿂붵쟷쫆,샍뚯쫐뎡쏦쇙퇏뻾쳴햽ꆣ늼쪲헾뢮퓚싊늻뛏엊짽,ퟨ낭뺭볃뢴쯕ꆣ헢킩틲쯘뚼웈쪹얷2003쓪풪퓂탻늼닉좡룶죋퓙뻍튵헊뮧(Personal' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
128낲퇴쪦랶톧풺톧놨2005쓪ReemploymentAccounts)틔웚췻룄짆쒿잰뗄삧뺳ꆣ믡ퟩ횯랽쏦뗄훆뛈낲업닮틬쫇얷훞룟쪧튵뫍쏀룶죋퓙뻍튵헊뮧뗄훷튪쓚죝쫇:뺭짳닩뫏룱뗄쪧맺쫕죫늻뻹뫢뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ쒿잰,뺡맜얷쏀맺볒튵헟(폈횸뎤웚쪧튵헟)뿉틔믱뗃ꇧ3000뗄헊뮧ꆣ헽믽벫뛔샍뚯쫐뎡뷸탐튻쾵쇐뗄룄룯,떫늢늻믡떫쫇,룃헊뮧평듺뇭쪧튵헟샻틦뗄횰튵훐탄맜튻랫럧쮳ꆣ퓚얷훞,틔퓶잿샍뚯쫐뎡쇩믮탔뗄룄샭ꆣ횰튵훐탄룹뻝쪧튵헟늻춬쟩뿶ꆢ늻춬벼쓜쮮룯늻뿉뇜쏢짦벰떽쿷죵짧믡뢣샻,뇘좻쪹룄룯돐욽낲업퓙뻍튵럾컱ꆢ엠통뗈쿮쒿ꆣ죧맻쪧튵헟퓚쫜뻞듳톹솦;퓚쏀맺,놣뮤쪧튵헟늢쟒벤샸쯻쏇뷓떽뗚튻뇊쪧튵뻈볃뢶뿮뗄13훜쓚헒떽릤ퟷ,쓇룼폐킧퓙뻍튵뗄룷훖룄룯듫쪩뚼뿉쓜퓶볓쪧튵쎴헊뮧훐뗄폠뛮뻍ퟷ캪퓙뻍튵뫬샻쿖뷰붱샸룸헟뗄뗀뗂럧쿕,복죵룄룯뗄풤웚쒿뇪ꆣ얷쏀샍뚯쪧튵헟,늢쟒뿉틔쯦쪱뛒쿖ꆣ뛸쓇킩쎻폐쓜릻헒쫐뎡뗄룄룯붫쫇싾뎤뛸볨뻞ꆣ떽릤ퟷ뗄죋,퓚볌탸뷓쫜쪧튵뻈볃뗄춬쪱,늻쓜릻뛒쿖쯻쏇뗄헊뮧,횻쓜릻볌탸폃살퓙뻍튵럾[닎뾼컄쿗]컱ꆢ엠통뗈쿮쒿뗄횧돶ꆣ쪵탐룶죋퓙뻍튵헊뮧폐[1]USDepartmentoflabor.ꆮAprofileoftheworking죽룶폅뗣ꆣ쫗쿈,룶죋퓙뻍튵헊뮧늻쫇쳦듺쪧튵poorꆯ,BureauofLaborStatistics,2002.뻈볃[2]Blanchard,Olivier.,.ꆮWhatWeKnowandDo,뛸쫇튻훖늹돤,틲뛸쎻폐쪧좥뛔쪧튵헟뗄놣뮤;웤듎,룶죋퓙뻍튵헊뮧뿉틔춨맽잱퓚뗄퓙NotKnowAbouttheNaturalRateofUnemploymentꆯ[J]뻍튵뫬샻볓쯙쪧튵릤죋뷸죫샍뚯쫐뎡,복짙쪧튵.죋쫽[3]Layard,R.,(1991),ꆮUn2;뗚죽,룶죋퓙뻍튵헊뮧춨맽횰튵훐탄룹뻝룶죋늻춬쟩뿶ꆢ늻춬벼쓜쮮욽낲업퓙뻍튵럾컱ꆢemployment:MacroeconomicPerformanceandtheLaborMarketꆯ,OxfordUniversityPress,Oxford.엠통뗈쿮쒿,뇜쏢헾뢮춳튻낲업엠통뗄뗍킧싊ꆣ[4]OECD,.쪧튵헟뿉춨맽톡퓱럻뫏ퟔ벺뗄횰튵벼쓜엠통,룼[5]Blanchard,Olivier,,ꆯwhatHidesBehindan폐킧뗘쳡룟뗍벼쫵릤죋뗄벼쫵쮮욽,듓뛸퓶볓릤UnemploymentRate:ComparingPortugueseandUSUn2쫕죫ꆣemploymentꆯ[M],mimeo,.ퟜ횮[6]OECD,.,얷쏀맺볒퓚쪧튵뻈볃ꆢ뻍튵놣뮤뫍릤StudyonCharacteristicsofLaborMarketinAmericaandEuropeHEXiao-yin(EconomicSchoolofJilinUniversity,Changchun130012,China)Abstrct:,,,,:labormarkets;unemployment(퓰죎뇠킣:D)' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
