뗚34뻭뗚5웚놱뺩뮯릤듳톧톧놨,쓪JOURNALOFBEIJINGUNIVERSITYOFCHEMICALTECHNOLOGY2007싌즫벼쫵뒴탂폫뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟닌훐뮪(놱뺩뮯릤듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺,놱뺩ꆡ100029)햪ꆡ튪:춨맽퓚쓚짺뗄Solow쒣탍믹뒡짏틽죫싌즫벼쫵뒴탂뫍뮷뺳훎샭춶,놾컄붨솢쇋튻룶뚯솦톧쒣탍쳖싛뮷뺳컛좾쮮욽폫죋뻹GDP횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ쒣탍뗄퇝뮯뷡맻뇭쏷,퓚늻춬뗄뺭볃뮷뺳닎쫽쿂,뮷뺳컛좾쮮욽폫죋뻹GDP횮볤뿉틔돶쿖뛠훖늻춬뗄맘쾵,웤훐냼삨놻돆캪뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟뗄떹U탍맘쾵ꆣ맘볼듊:뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟;싌즫벼쫵뒴탂;뮷뺳훎샭춶;뚯솦톧훐춼럖샠뫅:F270틽ꆡ퇔퓚헢퇹뗄샭싛릤ퟷ훐,폐튻훖뛔폚컛좾살풴뗄볙짨횵뗃힢틢,P8]asurk[a훐쪹폃쇋평Fare쯹뒴붨뮷뺳컛좾뗄쮮욽뫍뺭볃퓶뎤횮볤뗄맘쾵틑뺭돉뗄ꆰ럇틢풸컯욷ꆱ룅쓮,죧퓚짺닺쮮쓠(틢풸닺욷)뗄캪뮷뺳뺭볃톧첽쯷뗄튻룶죈뗣,Grossman뫍맽돌훐,뇘좻닺짺듳솿뗄뛾퇵뮯첼(럇틢풸닺욷);춬K]rueg[122er춨맽놱쏀ퟔ평쎳틗뗘쟸훐뮷뺳훊솿뫍맺쪱쯻볙뚨ꆰ럇틢풸컯욷ꆱ틽웰뗄뮷뺳컛좾늻쓜ퟔ좻쿻쏱쫕죫뗄맘쾵퇐뺿뇭쏷:뮷뺳컛좾뫍죋뻹쫕죫듦퓚돽,뛸쫇뇘탫쪹폃튻뚨뗄짺닺탔풴살쿻돽헢퇹뗄ퟅ쿈퓶뫳복뗄떹U탍맘쾵,벴뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟컛좾컯ꆣ내헕헢퇹뗄맛뗣,쯻쏇붨솢쇋튻쳗뮷뺳횸(EKC)ꆣ쫽살볬닢OECD맺볒뗄컛좾컯업럅,듓뛸횧돖쇋뮷룺쯦ퟅGrossman뫍Krueger뗄뾪뒴탔릤ퟷ,ퟮ뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟뗄볙짨ꆣ뷼벸쓪뮷뺳뺭볃톧볒쏇랢뇭쇋듳솿뗄뮷뺳훊솿쿂붵퇘ퟅ헢퇹뗄볙짨,놾컄죏캪뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟폫뺭볃퓶뎤횮볤뗄쪵횤맘쾵컄헂,죧D3]ind[aꆢ뗄쪵훊쫇뛔뮷뺳컛좾쮮욽뫍뺭볃퓶뎤횮볤뗄맘쾵뗄Co[4]le,쯤좻튲듦퓚ퟅ튻킩뛔뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟뗄뫪맛쏨쫶,뛸쟒퓬돉헢훖떹U탍쟺쿟맘쾵뗄틲쯘훷훊틉,떫룼뛠뗄쪵횤릤ퟷ뇭쏷:퓚듳뛠쫽맺볒뫍뗘튪캪틔쿂3룶:(1)닺튵뷡릹뗄뗷헻,쳘뇰쫇뺭볃뷡쟸,뮷뺳컛좾업럅솿뫍죋뻹쫕죫횮볤듦퓚ퟅ떹U탍릹듓틔훘릤튵캪훷뇤캪쟡컛좾뗄탐튵캪훷,뇈죧뗄뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟맘쾵ꆣ럾컱튵뫍쒳킩쟡릤튵;(2)싌즫벼쫵뒴탂,냼삨짺닺캪쇋뷢쫍헢퇹뗄뺭볃쿖쿳,탭뛠컄헂붨솢샭싛맽돌훐뗄싌즫벼쫵뒴탂샭쓮뫍업럅맽돌훐뗄싌즫벼쒣탍살쳖싛닺짺뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟뗄틲쯘ꆣ웤훐듳쫵뷸늽;(3)뮷뺳훎샭춶,퓚뫪맛닣쏦퓶볓폃폚훎늿럖샭싛쒣탍쪹폃쇋ꆰ듺뇭탔룶쳥ꆱ뫍늻춬뗄킧폃몯샭뮷뺳컛좾뗄춶,죧폐몦컯훊업럅떽ퟔ좻뷧횮잰쫽,죧Stern[5]뗄릤ퟷ볙짨뮷뺳컛좾살ퟔ폚짺닺맽뗄훎샭,붫폐킧복짙컛좾컯뗄업럅솿ꆣ돌,뛸컞쿞쫙쏼뗄룶쳥퓚췢짺벼쫵뷸늽뗄쳵볾쿂폅뮯ퟔ짭뗄킧폃몯쫽탎돉떹U탍맘쾵;Maddison[6]뗄1ꆡ쒣탍뿲볜릤ퟷ퓚볙짨뮷뺳컛좾살ퟔ쿻럑맽돌뗄믹뒡짏,랢햹뒫춳짺닺뫍퓶뎤쒣탍뗄튻룶믹놾볙짨뻍쫇,쯹쇋쫀듺붻쳦쒣탍살쳖싛뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟;뛸폐뗄닺욷뚼쫇뿉틔놻ퟔ좻뒦샭뗄ꆣ퓚Solow퓶뎤쒣Pan[7]뗄릤ퟷ퓲붨솢쇋쓚짺뗄벼쫵뷸늽쒣탍살쳖싛탍훐,닺돶놻럖캪춶욷뫍쿻럑욷솽늿럖,웤훐춶헢룶쿖쿳뫍뮷뺳맜훆뗄컊쳢ꆣ욷ퟷ캪탂뗄놾뿉틔훘탂뷸죫짺닺맽돌,뛸쿻럑욷쫕룥죕웚퓲쫇놻쿻뫄뗴뗄ꆣ헢룶볙짨틾몬ퟅ쇭튻룶틢쮼,벴:2007204218믹뷰쿮쒿:맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰뒦샭헢퇹뗄쿻럑욷늻탨튪죎뫎뺭볃돉놾ꆣ(70502006);놱뺩뮯릤듳톧쟠쓪뿆톧믹뷰(QN0630떫쫇,늻춬폚틔췹뗄닺욷뿉놻췪좫뒦샭뗄볙짨,)뗚튻ퟷ헟:쓐,1977쓪짺,붲쪦,늩쪿내헕탂뗄퇐뺿맛뗣[728],뺭볃닺돶놻럖캪솽늿럖,틢E2mail:caizh@풸닺욷뫍럇틢풸닺욷ꆣ웤훐,틢풸닺욷뻟폐뫜뫃뗄
ꆤ554ꆤ놱뺩뮯릤듳톧톧놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2007쓪뿉뒦샭탔,뛸럇틢풸닺욷퓲늻뻟놸헢퇹뗄탔훊ꆣ뻝E=(ꛋ-ꛈs)AKꛁL1-ꛁ(9)듋,뿉틔볙짨뒦샭틢풸닺욷쎻폐뺭볃돉놾,뛸뒦샭럇s쫇뒢탮싊,뇭쪾뺭볃닺돶훐폃폚춶뗄뇈샽,틢풸닺욷퓲탨튪쿻뫄튻킩틢풸닺욷ퟷ캪뒦샭돉놾ꆣ퓚헢샯볙짨s쫇췢짺뎣쫽ꆣ뷸튻늽,놾컄볙뚨뮷뺳컛좾업럅컯살ퟔ폚쓇킩쎻폐뇈뷏랽돌(1)뫍(9),뿉횪뺭볃닺돶Y뫍컛좾업놻뒦샭뗴뗄럇틢풸닺욷ꆣ럅컯E횮볤뗄맘쾵좡뻶폚닎쫽ꛋ뫍ꛈ,폚쫇놾컄붫볙짨퓚튻룶럢뇕뗄뺭볃쾵춳쓚,퓚룸뚨뗄벼쫵럖늻춬뗄쟩뿶쳖싛ꛋ뫍ꛈꆣ쮮욽뫍튻뚨뗄놾ꆢ샍뚯솦쫽솿쳵볾쿂,헢룶럢뇕뺭211ꆡꛋ뫍ꛈ뚼쫇뎣쫽볃듦퓚쿠펦뗄닺돶쮮욽,죧맻톡퓱Cobb2Douglas탍볙짨벼쫵뷸늽뫍뮷뺳훎샭춶뗄뇈샽퓚뛌웚쓚짺닺몯쫽,퓲폐뗄뇤뮯뷏뫜킡,틲듋퓚뛌웚퓶뎤훐,ꛋ뫍ꛈ쫇뎣쫽ꆣY=AKꛁL1-ꛁ(1)퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂뿉틔뗃떽컛좾업럅컯폫죋뻹닺돶횮볤닺돶럖캪쿻럑욷뫍춶욷솽늿럖ꆣ뗄맘쾵,죧춼1쯹쪾ꆣY=C+I(2)퓚랽돌(1)뫍(2)훐,닺욷Y쫇틢풸닺욷,떫떱짺닺헢퇹쫽솿뗄틢풸닺욷쪱,붫늻뿉뇜쏢뗘닺짺튻킩뢱닺욷,냑헢킩럇틢풸닺욷볇ퟶYb,늢볙짨Yb=ꛋY(3)쪽훐,ꛋ쫇튻룶싌즫벼쫵뒴탂틲ퟓ,쯼랴펳쇋퓚짺닺맽돌닺짺럇틢풸닺욷뗄킧싊,싌즫벼쫵쮮욽풽룟,헢퇹뗄럇틢풸닺욷풽짙ꆣ룹뻝잰쏦뗄볙짨,헢킩늻놻ퟔ좻뒦샭뗄럇틢풸닺욷붫닺짺컛좾업럅컯,뛸캪쇋뒦샭헢킩럇틢풸닺춼1ꆡ컛좾업럅컯폫죋뻹닺돶횮볤뗄맘쾵쒣쓢욷ꆡRelationshipbetweenemissionsandGDPpercapital,뇘탫쿻뫄튻킩춶욷ꆣ놾컄볙짨뒦샭튻떥캻뗄럇틢풸닺욷탨튪튻뚨뗄춶욷,벴죧춼1쯹쪾,뛌웚쓚,컛좾업럅컯뫍죋뻹닺돶횮볤돊쿟탔맘쾵,컛좾업럅솿쯦ퟅ뺭볃쮮욽뗄퓶볓뛸E=Yb-Ir(4)E쫇컛좾업럅컯쿟탔퓶볓ꆣ헢퇹뗄튻룶퇝뮯뷡맻뿉틔듓훐맺뗄쪵볹,Ir쫇뮷뺳훎샭춶,쯼ퟷ캪춶욷뗄튻늿럖,폃폚뒦샭쓇킩럇틢풸닺욷ꆣ뺭볃쫽뻝뗃떽횧돖,죧춼2쯹쪾(쫽뻝살풴ꆶ:훐맺뮷헢퇹뺳쓪본2005ꆷ),퓚1989떽1999쓪횮볤,릤튵뿕웸,춶욷뗄쇭튻늿럖볇ퟶIp,쯼돉캪짺닺맽돌뗄탂놾,짺닺맽돌훐놾뗄헛뻉싊캪ꛄ컛좾컯업럅솿뫍죋뻹GDP횮볤뗄맘쾵뻍돊쿖돶럇뎣뫃뗄쿟탔맘쾵ꆣI=Ir+Ip(5)ꆤK=Ip-ꛄK(6)랽돌(1)ꆫ(6)쫇놾컄뗄쒣탍뿲볜,붫퓚쿂쏦쳖싛쯼쏇뗄탔훊ꆣ2ꆡ쒣탍뗄뚯첬쒣쓢뫍쳖싛랽돌(1)ꆫ(6)쫇쳖싛뺭볃퓶뎤뫍컛좾업럅컯횮볤뗄맘쾵뗄뚯첬퓶뎤쒣탍ꆣ캪랽뇣쳖싛랽돌뗄뚯솦톧탔훊,뷸튻늽볙짨샍뚯솦캪뎣쫽늢쟒Ir=ꛈI(7)춼2ꆡ훐맺1989ꆫ1999쓪릤튵뿕웸컛좾컯업럅솿뫍ꛈ쫇튻룶췢짺닎쫽,뇭쪾폃폚뮷뺳훎샭뗄늿럖죋뻹GDP횮볤뗄맘쾵햼ퟜ춶뗄뇈훘ꆣꆡRelationshipbetweenindustrialairpollutionper폚쫇capitaandGDPpercapital(1989ꆫ1999),랽돌(1)ꆫ(7)뿉틔볲뮯캪ꆤK=(1-ꛈ)sAKꛁL1-ꛁ-ꛄK(8)
뗚5웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ닌훐뮪:싌즫벼쫵뒴탂폫뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟ꆤ555ꆤ212ꆡꛋ늻캪뎣쫽뛈튲믡붵뗍ꆣ퓚랢햹훐맺볒뗄뺭볃랢햹맽돌훐,평룹뻝잰쏦뗄뚨틥,ꛋ랴펳뗄쫇짺닺맽돌훐닺짺폚탨튪놣헏믹놾뗄뺭볃퓶뎤,횻쓜붫춶뗄뻸듳늿럇틢풸컯욷뗄킧싊,퓚뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뎤웚맽돌훐,헢퇹럖폃폚컯훊짺닺뛸뫶싔뮷뺳컛좾훎샭춶,헢뇘좻뗄횵붫쯦ퟅ벼쫵쮮욽A뗄뇤뮯뛸뇤뮯ꆣ룹뻝Solow듸살뷏뛠뗄뮷뺳컛좾ꆣ헢룶퇝뮯뷡맻뿉틔뛔랢햹훐쒣탍,볙짨뺭볃퓶뎤훐뗄벼쫵쮮욽A폐튻룶췢짺뗄맺볒뗄ꆰ욶쟮훂쪹쒮쫓뮷뺳ꆱ[9210]컊쳢폐튻룶뫜뫃퓶뎤싊뗄뷢쫍뫍쮵쏷ꆣꆤA(t)=gA(t)(10)g쫇췢짺퓶뎤싊,캪뎣쫽ꆣ냩쯦ퟅ싌즫벼쫵뗄뒴탂믮뚯,ꛋ붫쯦ퟅ벼쫵쮮욽뗄쳡룟뛸복짙,튲뻍쫇쮵,쯦ퟅ싌즫벼쫵뒴탂뗄닺짺,짺닺튻뚨솿뗄닺욷쯹듸살뗄럇틢풸뢱닺욷붫풽살풽짙,벴ꛋ(t)=f(A(t))ꆡfꇤ(ꆤ)<0(11)퓚헢퇹뗄닎쫽쳵볾쿂,쪹폃Stella죭볾뷸탐쒣탍뗄퇝뮯쒣쓢,쒣쓢뷡맻쿔쪾,컛좾업럅컯뫍죋뻹GDP횮볤뗄맘쾵돊쏷쿔뗄떹U탍맘쾵,죧춼3쯹쪾ꆣ(퓚퇝뮯맽돌훐볙뚨f(A)=A0/(A+A0),웤훐A0쫇튻룶뎣쫽)춼4ꆡ뮷뺳훎샭춶뛔죋뻹GDP뫍뮷뺳컛좾업럅뗄펰쿬뗄퇝뮯쒣쓢ꆡSimulationoftheeffectofdifferentlevelsofenviron2mentalinvestmentontheemissionsandGDPpercapital춼3ꆡ컛좾업럅컯뫍죋뻹GDP횮볤뗄떹U탍쟺쿟맘쾵춨맽쒣탍뗄퇝뮯쒣쓢,랢쿖떹U탍뗄뮷뺳뿢ꆡTheU2shapecurverelationshipbetweenemissions쓹듄쟺쿟횻쫇뺭볃퓶뎤뫍컛좾업럅솿횮볤뗄튻훖뿉andGDPpercapital쓜뗄맘쾵,퓚늻춬뗄뺭볃닎쫽펰쿬쿂,죧뺭볃뷡릹,붫놾쒣탍뗄쒣쓢뷡맻뫍틑폐뗄쪵횤릤ퟷ[224]뷸벼쫵쮮욽,뮷뺳훎샭춶뇈샽뗈,뺭볃퓶뎤뫍컛좾업탐뇈뷏,퓲믡랢쿖싌즫벼쫵뒴탂뗄좷뿉틔닺짺뮷뺳럅솿뮹뿉틔돊쿖돶늻춬뗄퇝뮯맘쾵ꆣ뿢쓹듄쟺쿟ꆣ213ꆡꛈ횵뛔쒣탍퇝뮯뷡맻뗄펰쿬3ꆡ뷡싛룹뻝잰쏦뗄볙짨,ꛈ횵뇭쪾뮷뺳훎샭춶뗄뇈(1)떱싌즫벼쫵쮮욽뫍뮷뺳훎샭춶뇈샽놣돖훘ꆣ죧맻만뚨웤쯻닎쫽,뻍뿉틔뗃떽늻춬뗄뮷뺳훎늻뇤뗄쟩뿶쿂,죋뻹GDP뫍컛좾업럅뗄맘쾵돊뷏캪샭춶뇈샽뛔죋뻹GDP뫍뮷뺳컛좾업럅퇝뮯뷡맻볲떥뗄쿟탔맘쾵ꆣ뗄펰쿬(죧춼4쯹쪾)ꆣ(2)싌즫벼쫵뒴탂뿉틔떼훂뺭볃퓶뎤맽돌훐컛틔짏쒣쓢뷡맻뇭쏷,퓚웤쯻쳵볾늻뇤뗄쟩뿶쿂,좾업럅솿돶쿖쿈퓶볓뫳복짙뗄쿖쿳,헢퇹뗄샭싛뷡뷏킡뗄뮷뺳훎샭춶뇈샽뿉틔떼훂뺭볃쾵춳돶쿖뷏맻뗃떽쿖폐뗄뮷뺳뿢쓹듄쟺쿟뗄쪵횤릤ퟷ뗄횧뿬뗄GDP퓶뎤쯙뛈,떫춬쪱듦퓚뷏뛠뗄컛좾업럅,돖ꆣ랴횮,죧맻룃뺭볃쾵춳쪹폃뷏듳뗄뮷뺳훎샭춶뇈(3)늻춬뗄뮷뺳훎샭춶뇈샽뿉틔떼훂늻춬뗄샽,퓲쓜릻떼훂뷏짙뗄컛좾업럅,떫쫇GDP퓶뎤쯙뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈뫍컛좾업럅솿,헢퇹뗄퇝뮯뷡맻뛔랢
ꆤ556ꆤ놱뺩뮯릤듳톧톧놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2007쓪햹훐맺볒뺭볃퓶뎤뫍뮷뺳컛좾뗄좡짡맘쾵쳡릩튻룶1998,3:173-196.뷢쫍ꆣ[6]ꆡ:Aspa2tialeconometricapproach[J].JournalofEnvironmental닎뾼컄쿗EconomicsandEnvironmentalManagement,2006,51:(2):218-230.[1]ꆡGROSSMANGM,[7]ꆡPANXiaoming,[M].Mputmodelsforlife2cycleanalysis[J].EnvironmentalandIT:MITPress,,20(1):61-72.[2]ꆡGROSSMANGM,[8]ꆡ[R/OL].1994.[2002204230].http:ꇎwwwtionabatementcosts:Anactivityanalysisframework[J]..
