뗚8뻭뗚3웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ맜ꆡ샭ꆡ뿆ꆡ톧ꆡ톧ꆡ놨2005쓪6퓂ꆡꆡꆡ.ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뚯첬쿻럑헟톡퓱쒣탍벰쳹쿖틲ퟓ뗄좷뚨ꋙ샮뒿쟠1,2,탬틺럥3(1.쟥뮪듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺,놱뺩100084;21컷낲릤튵톧풺뺭볃맜샭톧풺,컷낲710032;31컷낲붻춨듳톧맜샭톧풺,컷낲710049)햪튪:퓚럖컶쇣쫛웳튵폫쿻럑헟횮볤뗄붻틗쳘뗣벰쿻럑헟탐캪쳘헷뗄믹뒡짏,쳡돶쇋뚯첬쿻럑헟톡퓱쒣탍,춨맽뇈뷏뎣폃뗄만뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ램뫍닎쫽움맀램,쳡돶폃틬훊욫뫃몯쫽램살좷뚨뚯첬쿻럑헟톡퓱쒣탍뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓ,늢붫룃랽램폃폚튻룶뎬쫐뗄쫽뻝뿢훐,퇩횤쇋틬훊욫뫃몯쫽램좷뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ뇈잰솽훖랽램뗄폅풽탔,뮹쳖싛쇋죽훖랽램뗄쪹폃풭퓲.춬쪱,쳡돶쇋퓚뾼싇뿍뮧욫뫃틬훊탔쪱,뛔쿻럑헟톡퓱붨쒣쪱쯹펦뾼싇뗄훷튪뇤솿.맘볼듊:쳹쿖틲ퟓ;욫뫃틬훊탔;ퟮ듳쯆좻몯쫽;쿻럑헟킧폃훐춼럖샠뫅:F224ꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1007-9807(2005)03-0050-060ꆡ틽ꆡ퇔,폚쫇뿍뮧뗄캴살킧폃뻍틔쎿쓪10%뗄쳹쿖싊뷸탐쳹쿖)뒦샭,킧맻늢늻샭쿫.튲폐죋쳡돶쪹쿻럑헟톡퓱쒣탍퓚뚯첬뿍뮧맘쾵맜샭훐쫇튻폃닎쫽움맀램\[2\],떫룃랽램틗떼훂늻쫕솲컊쳢,쯹훖폐킧쟒쪵폃뗄쫐뎡퇐뺿벼쫵.웤풭샭쫇퓚쪵퇩틔뫜짙폐죋뎢쫔.놾컄퇐뺿뚯첬뿍뮧맘쾵맜샭훐짨볆뗄믹뒡짏,춨맽쒣쓢쯹튪퇐뺿뗄닺욷/럾컱쫐쿻럑헟톡퓱퇜짺뗄튻룶뷏캪맘볼뗄컊쳢,퇐뺿랢뎡뺺헹뮷뺳쿖,늻춬뗄좷뚨ꛄc뗄랽램뗃돶뗄뷡맻쫇늻춬뗄,,닢솿쿻럑헟뗄릺싲탐캪,믱횪쿻럑헟죧뫎퓚늻춬닺욷/럾컱쫴탔쮮욽뫍볛룱쳵볾쿂뷸늢쟒죧맻뾼싇뿍뮧뗄욫뫃틬훊탔,벴붫ꛄcퟷ캪뿍탐톡퓱\[1\].퓚쏨쫶쿻럑헟탐캪뗄쒣탍훐,뎣폃뗄폐뮧쳘탔(쓪쇤ꆢ탔뇰뫍쓪쫕죫)뗄몯쫽뷸탐움맀쪱,뺲첬폫뚯첬솽훖쒣탍웤뷡맻튪뇈잰솽훖랽램폅풽..뺲첬쒣탍퓚붨솢쿻럑헟킧폃쒣탍쪱,횻뾼싇쿻럑헟뗄떱웚킧폃,늻뾼싇떱웚놾컄뮹헫뛔쇣쫛튵쳡돶튻룶뻟쳥뗄쿻럑헟톡뻶닟뛔캴살뗄펰쿬;뛸뚯첬쒣탍붫쿻럑헟뾴돉쫇퓱쒣탍,살쮵쏷쳹쿖틲ퟓ퓚룃쒣탍쯹웰뗄ퟷ폃폫뚯첬뻶닟헟뗘캻,늢쳡돶뎣폃뗄좷뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ뗄랽램틔췢뗄,퓚뻶닟쪱,늻떫뾼싇떱웚킧폃,뛸쟒뾼싇떱웚뻶닟룸캴살듸살뗄펰쿬.퇐뺿뇭쏷,뚯첬틬훊욫뫃몯쫽램,늢뛔쯹쳡돶뗄랽램뷸탐퇩횤,룸쒣탍퓚뫜뛠랽쏦(죧쒣탍뗄쫊펦탔ꆢ쫽뻝쓢뫏탔)돶움맀뷡맻벰퇐뺿뷡싛.뇈뺲첬쒣탍폐폅쫆\[2ꆫ5\],떫뚯첬쒣탍훐폐튻룶쳹쿖틲ퟓꛄc뗄좷뚨컊쳢,쟒ꛄc퓚쿻럑헟톡퓱쒣탍1ꆡ뚯첬쿻럑헟톡퓱쒣탍훐웰ퟅ뇈뷏훘튪뗄ퟷ폃,횱뷓펰쿬웳튵뛔쿻럑헟뗄ퟮ폅뻶닟.듳늿럖컄쿗\[2,4ꆫ8\]뛔룃틲ퟓ뗄좷ꆡ웳튵폫쿻럑헟뗄랴뢴붻뮥ퟷ폃뚨뻹쪹폃쇋쿠춬뗄랽램:붫쳹쿖틲ퟓ떱ퟷ만뚨뎣볙짨쯹퇐뺿뗄쇣쫛웳튵쫇튻룶뛀볒슢뛏뗄뎬쫽(퓂쳹쿖틲ퟓ캪,믲탇웚쳹쿖틲ퟓ캪쫐(헢퓚튻킩듳ꆢ훐돇쫐,랽풲4ꆢ5km횻폐튻볒뎬ꋙ쫕룥죕웚:2003-05-15;탞뚩죕웚:2005-01-20.믹뷰쿮쒿:맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰훺쿮쒿(10371094;70121001);짂컷쪡ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰훺쿮쒿(02G11;03G07);짂컷쪡뷌폽쳼쿮믹뷰훺쿮쒿(02JK009;03JK176).ퟷ헟볲뷩:샮뒿쟠(1970ꆪ),얮,뫓쓏쓏퇴죋,늩쪿뫳,뷌쫚.
뗚3웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ샮뒿쟠뗈:뚯첬쿻럑헟톡퓱쒣탍벰쳹쿖틲ퟓ뗄좷뚨ꆪ51ꆪ쫐뗄쿖쿳쫇뫜웕뇩뗄),헢훖볙짨훷튪쫇캪쇋랽뇣뇣움맀,쎻폐짦벰릺싲뷰뛮,헢늢늻펰쿬쯹퇐뺿컊붫힢틢솦벯훐퓚쯹퇐뺿뗄컊쳢짏.볙뚨쯹퇐뺿뗄쳢뗄뷡싛).뛔쿳쫇쇣쫛웳튵뗄떥룶쿻럑헟,퓚쎿룶쪱볤훜웚떥룶뿍뮧i뗄쇷쪧쪱볤벰릺싲듎쫽틔십뛻뿉쓚웳튵뻶뚨쫇럱룸쿻럑헟쪵쪩펪쿺ퟩ뫏닟싔럲뇤맽돌퇝뇤.쇷쪧쪱볤쯦ퟅ튻듎릺싲(d,뛸it=뿍뮧틔릺싲뗄탎쪽뻶뚨쫇럱뷸탐랴펦.웳튵폫뿍1)뛸훃캪0,럱퓲(dit=0)뗝퓶1뮧랴펦횮볤뗄붻뮥쫇틔헢훖랽쪽퓚쎿튻룶훜웚쓚0죧맻dit=1r(i,t+1=2a)훘뢴뷸탐뗄rit+1죧맻dit=0.쇣쫛튵돶쫛뗄짌욷쫇럇벾뷚탔닺욷,헢훖짌욷뻟폐틔쿂쳘탔:쫇뺭뎣놻릺싲뗄;쫇폐욷릺싲듎쫽쯦ퟅ튻듎릺싲(dit=1)뛸뗝퓶1,없뗄럱퓲(dit=0)훃캪0;쫇쓍뒢님뗄;쫇쫜볛룱듙뷸펰쿬뗄,쯹틔퓚늻춬쪱웚쿻럑헟릺싲춬퇹짌욷뗄킧폃쫇쿠춬뗄fit+1죧맻dit=,t+1=(2b뿍뮧뗄쒿뇪쫇퓚쎿튻웚ퟶ돶릺싲믲늻릺싲뗄0죧맻)dit=0뛔폚튻룶뗚1듎듓헢룶웳튵훐릺싲뗄뿍뮧,뻶닟쪱쪹ퟔ벺뗄뎤웚킧폃ퟮ듳,떱뿍뮧ퟶ돶뻶닟웤쇷쪧쪱볤짨캪0,릺싲듎쫽짨캪1,듓듋,뻍쫕벯쪱,늻떫뾼싇떱잰릺싲믲늻릺싲뗄킧폃,뛸쟒뮹뾼헢킩뿍뮧뗄쫽뻝.틔Sit={rit,fit}뇭쪾ힴ첬뿕볤.싇떱잰탐캪뛔캴살뻶닟뗄펰쿬.춼1캪ힴ첬뿕볤뗄춼뇭.ꆡ쿻럑헟뗄쒿뇪몯쫽쿻럑헟뗄쒿뇪몯쫽쫇쪱볤랶캧짏튻룶웚췻뗄쳹쿖킧폃E(ꇆꇞꛄt-1cuitdit)(1)t=1헢샯:ꛄc쫇뿍뮧뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓꋚ;uit쫇뿍뮧i퓚뗚t웚듓릺싲훐믱뗃뗄킧폃;dit쫇튻룶뇭쪾랴펦뗄뛾풪(0,1)뇤솿,dit캪1뇭쪾릺싲,dit캪0뇭쪾늻릺싲(캪랽뇣컊쳢뗄뒦샭,헢샯붫쪵볊쟩뿶훐뗄릺싲뻶닟뷸탐쇋볲뮯(쎿듎횻릺싲튻훖짌욷),떫늢늻펰쿬컊쳢뗄뷡싛.쪵볊쟩뿶뿉쓜쫇쿻럑헟돽쇋릺싲폫늻릺싲뗄뻶닟췢,뮹폐릺싲뛠짙ꆢ쪲쎴욷없뗈,늻맜퓵퇹,헢킩뻶닟뚼쫇뮥돢뗄,쎿듎쿻럑헟뗄톡퓱펦룃쫇캨튻뗄,틲듋뻶닟뿕볤쫇뛠캬뗄뛸늻쫇뛾캬뗄).룹뻝쇣쫛튵쫽뻝뗄쳘탔,쪱볤훜웚힢:쇷쪧쪱볤rit벰솬탸릺싲듎쫽fit솽룶뇤솿뛔퓚쎿튻룶t=1,ꆭ,T웚뻟폐2(t-1)훖늻춬뗄ힴ첬(t=1쪱돽틔퓂캪떥캻,평폚쫙쏼(틔퓂살볆솿)쫇튻룶뫜뎤췢,t=1쪱,횻폐튻훖ힴ첬).ힴ첬뿕볤풪쯘싺ퟣ틔쿂쳵뗄쪱볤볾:믲헟r,쯹틔뿉틔붫쪱볤훡뾴돉쫇컞쿞뎤뗄.t=0쟒ft=t;믲헟0<rt+ftꇜt-2쟒rtꇁft=0;믲헟rt=t-1쟒ft=ꆡ쿻럑헟뗄ힴ첬뿕볤퓚뛈솿릺싲탐캪뗄훷튪쳘탔훐,쾸럖뿍뮧뗄춼1ꆡힴ첬뿕볤뷡릹믹뒡쫇쇷쪧쪱볤(recency)ꆢ릺싲듎쫽(frequency)ꆢ퓚t쪱뿌,뛔폚떥룶뿍뮧i뗄펪쿺ퟩ뫏닟싔뗄릺싲뷰뛮(monetaryvalue)ꆢ벴RFM랽램\[9\]ꋛ.룃랽뻶닟쫇튻룶뛾풪뇤솿,벴램ퟮ퓧쫇퓚횱쿺탐튵랢햹웰살뗄\[10\],ퟮ뷼튲폃퓚1ꆡ죧맻쪱뿌t뛔뿍뮧i웤쯻탐튵뿍뮧탐캪뗄쏨쫶짏\[4\].퓚놾컄뗄쒣탍훐,mms붫ힴ첬뇤솿뚨틥캪쇷쪧쪱볤rit,벴뻠ퟮ뷼튻듎릺it=ꆡ쪵탐펪쿺ퟩ뫏닟싔(3)0ꆡ럱퓲싲뗄쪱볤볤룴,틔벰뿍뮧뗄솬탸릺싲듎쫽f(it캪랽떱좻,펪쿺ퟩ뫏뇤솿튲뿉틔쫇뎬맽뛾캬뗄뛠ꋚꆡ쳹쿖틲ퟓ=1/(1+쳹쿖싊).ꋛꆡ햸탂뛈듺뇭뻠짏듎릺싲뗄쇷쪧쪱볤ꆢ릺싲듎쫽,맽좥릺싲뗄듎쫽믲헻룶쪱볤훜웚쓚릺싲뗄뇈샽,릺싲뷰뛮쫇훁뷱캪횹쯹뮨럑뗄뷰뛮믲훁뷱캪횹쎿듎릺싲뗄욽뻹뷰뛮.뻟쳥펦룹뻝쯹퇐뺿뗄컊쳢벰탐튵뗄쫽뻝쳘탔좷뚨.
ꆪ52ꆪ맜ꆡ샭ꆡ뿆ꆡ톧ꆡ톧ꆡ놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2005쓪6퓂캬뇤솿(죧쪵탐뚨볛ꆢ랢탅ꆢ훒돏볆뮮ꆢ폅믝좯ꆢ쏢Prob(itdit=0|Sit,mms)it=럑쯍믵뗈펪쿺ퟩ뫏닟싔,떫힢틢퓚뻟쳥붨쒣쪱튪ꆡꆡꆡꆡ1-Prob(itdit=1|Sit,mms)it놣횤헢킩닟싔횮볤뗄뮥돢탔),뛔룃컊쳢뗄볲뮯뒦닉폃컄쿗[1]뗄랽램,뿉틔뗃돶뿍뮧뗄ퟮ듳샭횻쫇캪쇋랽뇣움맀,늻펰쿬쯹퇐뺿컊쳢뗄뷡싛.웚췻볛횵몯쫽캪ꆡ쿻럑헟뗄킧폃랽돌벰볛횵몯쫽EV(itS)it=Prob(itd)it=1|Sit,mmsitꇁ룹뻝뿍뮧쫇럱쿭쫜펪쿺ퟩ뫏닟싔,뿉틔붨솢ꆡꆡ[uit+ꛄcEVi,t+1(Si,t+1|dit=1)]+뿍뮧릺싲킧폃랽돌ꆡꆡProb(itdit=0|Sit,mms)itꇁuit=ꛁ+ꛂmmsmmsit+ꛂ1rrit+ꛂ22rrit+ꆡꆡꛄꛂcEVi,t+1(Si,t+1|dit=0)+fln(fit+1)+ꛅit=uit+ꛅ(it4)ꆡꆡ[ꛄc(EV쪽훐i,t+1(Si,t+1|dit=0)-:uit뇭쪾킧폃랽돌훐뗄좷뚨늿럖;ꛅit뇭쪾캴ꆡꆡEV맛달떽뗄컳닮쿮i,t+1(Si,t+1|dit=1))-uit](7).쪽(4)뗄릹붨샻폃쇋Gonu[2]l뗄퇐뺿돉맻,벴뛔폚럇벾뷚탔닺욷살쮵,쿻럑헟킧폃웚췻뗄볛횵몯쫽뿉틔춨맽뗝맩쯣램쟳돶.폫쇷쪧쪱볤폐U탍쟺쿟뗄맘쾵,헢훖맘쾵퓚ퟷ헟뗄튻쿮맘폚쇣쫛튵뗄퇐뺿훐뗃떽쇋횤쪵[11],쿻럑2ꆡ쳹쿖틲ퟓꛄc뗄좷뚨헟킧폃폫솬탸릺싲듎쫽횮볤뗄맘쾵,퓋폃쇋Lew[4]is뛔쇣쫛튵훐쿻럑헟뗄퇐뺿돉맻,벴솽헟횮ꆡ쳹쿖틲ퟓꛄc퓚볛횵몯쫽훐뗄ퟷ폃볤쫇뛔쫽맘쾵,헢훖맘쾵퓚놾컄펦폃럖컶훐튲뗃듓릫쪽(7)뿉틔뾴돶,쳹쿖틲ퟓ퓚릺싲ꆢ늻릺떽쇋퇩횤.훁폚닎쫽움맀쪱킧폃랽돌훐룷닎쫽뗄싲틔벰컳닮쿮뗄뒦샭훐,뚼웰ퟅ뇈뷏훘튪뗄ퟷ폃,럻뫅뗄볙뚨닎뾼쇋컄쿗웤좡횵랶캧쫇0ꇜꛄcꇜ1,좡횵뗄듳킡듺뇭ퟅ쿻럑[11]뗄랽램.릫쪽(1)뗄ퟮ듳뮯뿉틔춨맽톡퓱ퟮ폅뿘훆뇤헟뚯첬떼쿲탔뗄벶뇰.떱ꛄc=0쪱,쿻럑헟퓚뷸탐솿탲쇐떱잰뻶닟쪱,늻뾼싇캴살샻틦뗄펰쿬.떱ꛄc=1{dit}살쪵쿖,춨맽쪹폃ퟮ폅탔풭샭,늻뾼싇돵쪼ힴ첬벰뻶닟,횻뾼싇떱잰뗄ힴ첬,쪣폠뗄뻶쪱,쿻럑헟퓚뷸탐떱잰뻶닟쪱,붫캴살샻틦폫떱잰닟튻뚨쫇ퟮ폅뗄[12].떱잰뗄킧폃샻틦떱돉춬퇹훘튪.ꛄc뗄횵풽듳,쮵쏷쿻럑헟퓚uit폫뗚t+1웚틔뫳뗄룷웚뛔캴살웚췻뗄헛쿖볛횵뷸탐떱잰뻶닟쪱뛔캴살샻틦뗄펰쿬뾼싇뗃풽뛠.튲폐퇐뺿뇭쏷,쿻럑헟룶죋맘탄캴살쫂볾,떫춨뎣EVi,t+1(Si,t+1)뗄뫍,ퟩ돉뗚t웚뗄볛횵몯쫽믡뗍맀헢킩캴살쫂볾폫떱잰뗄맘쾵[13].V(itS)it,벴ꆡ솽훖늻춬뗄좷뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ뗄랽램u(it+ꛄcEVi,t+1Si,t+1|dit=1)+ꛅꆡ만뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ램ꆡꆡꆡ죧맻dit=1V퓚뚯첬쿻럑헟톡퓱쒣탍훐,듳늿럖퇐뺿붫만(itS)it=ꛄ(5)cEVi,t+1(Si,t+1|dit=0)뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ램ퟷ캪뎣폃뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓꛄc뗄좷뚨랽ꆡꆡ죧맻dit=0램[2,4,6ꆫ8],벴붫쯹폐뿍뮧뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓ뚼짨캪퓂쳹헢샯ힴ첬뇤솿틀헕뗈쪽(2)뷸탐퇝뇤.쿖틲ퟓ캪(믲탇웚쳹쿖틲ퟓ캪),폚쫇뛔폚릺싲룅싊,퇐뺿죋풱늢늻쓜맛달떽쯦믺늿뿍뮧뗄캴살킧폃뻍틔쎿쓪10%뗄쳹쿖싊쳹쿖.튲럖뗄럖늼,떫뿉틔룹뻝쫽뻝움맀돶뿍뮧듓웳튵릺싲폐톧헟붨틩ꛄc뗄좡횵랶캧퓚ꆫ횮볤[14].믲늻릺싲뗄룅싊.폚쫇,랴펦(릺싲)뗄룅싊캪닎쫽움맀램ꆡProb(itdit=1|Sit,mms)it=닎쫽움맀램쫇붫ꛄc폫쿻럑헟킧폃랽돌훐웤쯻ꆡProb(uit+ꛄcEVi,t+1(Si,t+1|dit=1)+ꛅit>닎쫽튻퇹뷸탐움맀,웤풭샭쫇믹폚볆솿뺭볃훐뗄ꆡꛄcEVi,t+1(Si,t+1|dit=0))=ESDP(estimablestructuraldynamicprogramming)쒣ꆡꚵ[uit+ꛄc(EVi,t+1(Si,t+1|dit=1)-탍,룃쒣탍샻폃쿻럑헟뗄쪵볊붻틗쫽뻝,쪹웤퇹놾뛔ꆡEV쫽-쯆좻몯쫽ퟮ듳뷸탐닎쫽움맀.뿍뮧i퓚훜웚t뗄i,t+1(Si,t+1|dit=0))](6)헢샯,ꚵ쫇뇪ힼ헽첬샛믽럖늼몯쫽.늻랴펦뗄뛔쫽-쯆좻몯쫽룅싊캪ꆡLit=ditꇁln(Prob(itdit=1|Sit,mms))it+
뗚3웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ샮뒿쟠뗈:뚯첬쿻럑헟톡퓱쒣탍벰쳹쿖틲ퟓ뗄좷뚨ꆪ53ꆪꆡ(1-d)itꇁln(Prob(itdit=0|S))(it,mmsit8)웤훐:탔뇰뇤솿뗄뇭듯쪽캪퇹놾뗄뛔쫽-쯆좻몯쫽0ꆡꆡ쓐sex=1ꆡꆡ얮(11)LL=ꇆIꇆBiL(it9)i=쓪쇤뇤솿뗄뇭듯쪽캪1i=bi웤훐,I쫇뿍뮧뗄쫽솿;훜웚[bi,Bi]쫇룶쳥i놻맛0ꆡꆡ쟠쓪달뗄쪱볤볤룴.듓움맀풭샭살뾴,헢훖랽램뿏뚨뇈ꢻge=1ꆡꆡ훐쓪(12)붫ꛄc떱ퟷ튻룶뎣쫽살좷뚨뗄뷡맻튪뫃.떫뫜짙폐2ꆡꆡ샏쓪죋닉폃헢훖랽램,풭틲쫇헢훖랽램죝틗돶쿖늻쫕쓪쫕죫뇤솿뗄뇭듯쪽캪솲컊쳢[2]0ꆡꆡ뗍쫕죫.2inc=1ꆡꆡ훐뗈쫕죫(13).3ꆡ틬훊욫뫃몯쫽램퓚쿻럑헟톡퓱쒣탍훐,붫뾼싇룶쳥탐캪훐듦2ꆡꆡ룟쫕죫퓚뗄욫뫃틬훊탔ퟷ캪럡뢻룃쇬폲퇐뺿쓚죝뗄랽램헢퇹뻍뿉틔룹뻝쿻럑헟뗄쫽뻝,붫틬훊욫뫃횮튻몯쫽훐뗄닎쫽폫쿻럑헟킧폃랽돌훐뗄닎쫽튻웰뷸,뫶쫓헢훖욫뫃틬훊탔믡틽웰풤닢컳닮[15],쯹틔늻춬뗄뿍뮧쫽뻝,폃살쏨쫶뿍뮧뛔캴살풤웚탐움맀,뷸뛸뗃돶쿻럑헟뗄볛횵몯쫽.뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓ튲쫇늻춬뗄,폐뇘튪뛔쿻럑헟뗄욫뫃틬훊탔폫쳹쿖틲ퟓ횮볤맘쾵뷸탐쏅뗄퇐뺿,놾3ꆡ쪵볊펦폃럖컶벰움맀뷡맻컄붫쳹쿖틲ퟓꛄc뾴돉쫇펰쿬욫뫃틬훊탔틲쯘뗄튻훖몯쫽,퓚펰쿬욫뫃틬훊탔틲쯘뗄톡퓱랽쏦,뷨ꆡ쫽뻝쏨쫶본쇋Reinartz뗈죋뗄퇐뺿돉맻[16],떫붫웤쳡돶뗄춨맽쒳뎬쫐뗄쿻럑헟붻틗쫽뻝살퇩횤틔짏맛ꆰ뿕볤캻훃ꆱ뇤솿좥뗴,볓짏ꆰ탔뇰ꆱ뇤솿,풭틲쫇:뗣.쯹닉벯뗄쫽뻝벯살ퟔ튻룶뎬쫐벯췅뗄뎤웚뿍뛀볒슢뛏뗄볙짨쪹뿕볤캻훃뛔폚헢볒뎬쫐뗄뎤웚뮧뛔쒳튻짌욷(헢샯톡퓱뗄쫇놦뷠릫쮾짺닺뗄쾴뿍뮧살쮵쫇뎣솿;뛾쫇럖컶뎬쫐쫽뻝랢쿖,탔뇰퓚릺싲뻶닟훐웰쇋뷏쏷쿔뗄ퟷ폃.떱좻,튲뿉틔룹뻝랢쮮ꆪꆪꆪ몣량쮿)듓1999쓪1퓂떽2001쓪6퓂(30쯹퇐뺿탐튵뗄쫽뻝쳘헷룄뇤뇤솿뗄샠탍폫쫽쒿룶퓂)뗄릺싲샺쪷쫽뻝.쯹톡퓱뗄짌욷좫쓪쿻럑.춨맽틔짏뗄럖컶,뿉틔붫ꛄc떱ퟷ랴펳뿍뮧쳘탔뗄늢럻뫏잰쫶뗄쯄룶쳘탔.붫1999쓪1퓂뾪쪼뗚1훷튪뇤솿(쓪쇤ꆢ탔뇰뫍쓪쫕죫)뗄몯쫽살뷸탐움듎릺싲룃짌욷뗄뿍뮧ퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳,릲믱뗃30웚맀뗄릺싲샺쪷,폐500룶뿍뮧럻뫏톡퓱튪쟳,웤쫽뻝,웤뇭듯쪽캪ꋜꛄ쳘탔죧뇭1쯹쪾.c=ꛃ0+ꛃsexsex+ꛃꢻgeꢻge+ꛃincinc(10)뇭1ꆡ퇹놾춳볆Table1ꆡSummarystatistics퇹놾쳘탔떥룶뿍뮧뗄릺싲듎쫽떥룶뿍뮧쫕떽뗄탅쾢듎쫽(m=1)룶쓐뿍뮧뗄릺싲듎쫽룶얮뿍뮧뗄릺싲듎쫽룶뗍쫕죫뗄뿍뮧뗄릺싲듎쫽훐뗈쫕죫뗄뿍뮧뗄릺싲듎쫽룟쫕죫뗄뿍뮧뗄릺싲듎쫽룶쟠쓪뿍뮧뗄릺싲듎쫽룶훐쓪뿍뮧뗄릺싲듎쫽룶샏쓪뿍뮧뗄릺싲듎쫽솽듎릺싲뗄쪱볤볤룴/퓂떥룶뿍뮧솬탸릺싲뗄듎쫽떥룶뿍뮧d=1쪱뗄r횵떥룶뿍뮧d=1쪱뗄f횵ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ힢:ꆡ퇹놾훐뗄뿍뮧ퟜ쫽캪500.ퟜ릲맛달떽뗄쫽뻝룶쫽캪15000.ꋜꆡ헢샯훷튪쫇캪쇋첽쳖좷뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ뗄랽램,캪랽뇣움맀,닉폃볲떥뗄쿟탔맘쾵,늢뫶싔쇋웤쯻틲쯘듸살뗄컳닮
ꆪ54ꆪ맜ꆡ샭ꆡ뿆ꆡ톧ꆡ톧ꆡ놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2005쓪6퓂3뇭2ꆡ죽훖움맀랽램뗄뷡맻폫뇈뷏.2ꆡ죽훖랽램뗄뇈뷏폫움맀뷡맻죽훖랽램듓늻춬뗄뷇뛈룸돶쇋좷뚨ꛄc뗄랽Table2ꆡTheestimationresultsofthreeways램닎쫽만뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ램()닎쫽움맀램()틬훊욫뫃몯쫽램,듓뗚2늿럖뗄럖컶뿉틔뾴돶,죽훖랽램룷폐쳘뗣,만뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ램뇈뷏볲떥,떫쎻폐뾼싇늻춬뗄ꛁ쫽뻝벰탐튵쿻럑헟뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓ쫇늻춬뗄ꛂ,벴쪹쫇쿠춬뗄탐튵ꛂ,늻춬뗄쫽뻝뿢쿻럑헟뗄쳘탔튲쫇늻춬뗄,쯹틔,틔튻훖만뚨뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓ살듺뇭쯹폐뿍ꛂ뮧뗄쳘탔쫇늻뫏쫊뗄ꛂ.닎쫽움맀램쓜릻룼뫃뗘쓢뫏쫽뻝뿢뗄쫽뻝,떫쎻폐뾼싇뿍뮧뗄틬훊욫뫃탔ꛄ,ꛃ벴늻춬뗄쓪쇤뛎ꆢ늻춬뗄쫕죫쮮욽벰늻춬탔뇰뗄ꛃ뿍뮧뛔캴살뗄풤웚쫇늻춬뗄.룹뻝쪵볊쫽뻝,죽훖ꛃ움맀랽램뗄뷡맻튲쫇늻춬뗄,듓뇭2뿉틔뾴돶,닎ꛃ쫽움맀램튪뇈만뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ램뫃,늢쟒뛔폚룃쫽뻝뿢살쮵,틋닉폃뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓ;듓뛔쫽-쯆좻몯쫽횵벰AIC살뾴,틬훊욫뫃몯쫽램뇈닎쫽움맀램뗄뷡맻뫃.죽훖랽램탨튪움맀뗄닎쫽튲쫇늻춬뗄,만뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ램탨튪움맀5룶닎쫽,닎쫽움맀4ꆡ뷡ꆡ싛램뇈만뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ램뛠움맀1룶닎쫽(붫ꛄc떱ퟷ닎쫽살움맀),뛸틬훊욫뫃몯쫽램돽쇋닎쫽움맀램뚯첬쿻럑헟톡퓱쒣탍쫇튻훖폐킧뗄뷸탐뚨솿뗄6룶닎쫽췢,뮹튪퓙움맀3룶랴펳틬훊욫뫃뗄닎뿍뮧맘쾵맜샭뗄벼쫵.퓚뾼싇뿍뮧욫뫃틬훊탔쪱,쫽,볆쯣뢴퓓돌뛈룟폚잰솽훖랽램,뺡맜폃닎쫽움쳹쿖틲ퟓ폫쿻럑헟뗄쓪쇤ꆢ탔뇰벰쓪쫕죫폐맘.폫맀랽램죝틗떼훂늻쫕솲뗄컊쳢,떫퓚쪵볊펦폃럖뎣폃뗄솽훖좷뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ뗄랽램쿠뇈,놾컄쳡돶뗄컶훐,늢쎻폐폶떽늻쫕솲뗄컊쳢,늻떫움맀뷡맻튪틬훊욫뫃몯쫽램뇈닎쫽움맀램폅풽,닎쫽움맀램퓚뫃폚만뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ램뗄뷡맻,뛸쟒평폚횻퓶볓쇋쫕솲뗄쟩뿶쿂뇈만뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ램폅풽.퓚뻟쳥컊쳢튻룶닎쫽,볆쯣뢴퓓돌뛈늢쎻폐쳡룟뫜뛠훐펦ퟱ톭틔쿂풭퓲살좷뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ:떱붫쳹쿖틲ퟓ.룹뻝쪵볊펦폃뗄뷡맻,뿉틔뗃떽뷡싛떱ퟷ뇤솿믡듸살쒣탍늻쫕솲뗄컊쳢쪱,뿉닉폃만뚨:붫쳹쿖틲ퟓ떱ퟷ뇤솿듸살쒣탍늻쫕솲뗄컊쳢쪱쳹쿖틲ퟓ램;퓚쿻럑헟뗄킧폃랽돌뇈뷏볲떥뗄쟩뿶,틋닉폃만뚨쳹쿖틲ퟓ램;럱퓲,퓚쿻럑헟뗄킧폃랽돌뇈뷏쿂,틋닉폃틬훊욫뫃몯쫽램;퓚쿻럑헟뗄킧폃랽돌볲떥뗄쟩뿶쿂,틋닉폃틬훊욫뫃몯쫽램뇈뷏뢴퓓뗄쟩뿶쿂,뿉닉폃닎쫽움맀램.떱좻,틬훊;퓚쿻럑헟뗄킧폃랽돌뇈뷏뢴퓓뗄쟩뿶쿂,틋닉폃닎쫽움욫뫃몯쫽램뺡맜뫜뫃뗘쓢뫏쇋쫽뻝뿢,떫평폚닎쫽맀램룶쫽뗄퓶볓,퓶볓쇋볆쯣뗄뢴퓓탔..닎뾼컄쿗:\[1\K]\[M\].Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2002.\[2\]GonulFusun,:Anewmethodologyusingestimablestructuraldynamicprogrammingmodels\[J\].ManagementScience,1998,44(9):1249ꆪ1262.\[3\]GonulFusun,:Adynamicstructuralmodel\[J\].MarketingScience,1996,1(53):262ꆪ279.\[4\]\[D\].Evanston/Chicago:NorthwesternUniversity,2001.
뗚3웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ샮뒿쟠뗈:뚯첬쿻럑헟톡퓱쒣탍벰쳹쿖틲ퟓ뗄좷뚨ꆪ55ꆪ\[5\]ErdemTulin,-makingunderuncertainty:Capturingdynamicbrandchoiceprocessesinturbulentco2nsumergoodsmarkets\[J\].MarketingScience,1996,1(51):1ꆪ20.\[6\]\[J\].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1984,92:852ꆪ847.\[7\]\[J\].Journalof2HumanResources,1989,24(2):195ꆪ220.\[8\]HotzVJ,\[J\].ReviewofEconomicStudies,1993,60:497ꆪ529.\[9\]BitranGR,\[J\].ManagementScience,1996,(492):1364ꆪ1381.\[10\D]\[J\].JournalofDirectMarketing,1989,(82):73ꆪ81.\[11\샮]뒿쟠,벧짽솼,뚭쳺얣.뚯첬뿍뮧맘쾵맜샭뗄붨쒣벰펦폃\[J\].컷낲릤튵톧풺톧놨,2003,23(4):355ꆪ,JiShengliang,\[J\].JournalofXꆯianInstituteofTechnology,2003,23(4):355ꆪ360.\[12\B]\[M\].Princeton:PrincetonUniversityPress,1957.\[13\]\[R\].HongKong:HongKongUniversityofScienceandTechn2ology,2002.\[14\]Loewenstein,:Evidenceandaninterpretation\[A\].In:LoewensteinG,\[C\].NewYork:ꆪ146.\[15\]WalkerJoanLeslie,ExtendedDiscreteChoiceModels:IntegratedFramework,FlexibleErrorStructures,andLatentVariables\[D\].Boston:MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,.\[16\]ReinartzWernerJ,\[R\].INSEADR&D,Fontainebleau:INSEADAssociation,,2qing,&Management,TsinghuaUniversity,Beijing100084,China;,XiꆯanInstituteofTechnology,Xiꆯan710032,China;,XiꆯanJiaotongUniversity,Xiꆯan710049,ChinaAbstract:Basedontheanalysisofthecharacteristicsofdealingbetweenthefirmandconsumersaswellascon2sumersꆯbehaviors,,themethodoftakingthediscountfactorasthefunctionofconsumersꆯ,themainvariableshavebeengivenoutundertheconditionoftakingaccountoftheconsumersꆯ:discountfactor;heterogeneity;maximumlikelihood;consumerutility
