맺볊뺭볃햽싔얷훞뺭볃믵뇒솪쏋쿂돉풱맺닆헾헾닟뗄ퟷ폃?볒뚰ꆡ퓆ꆡ캵햪ꆡ튪ꎺ퓚얷쏋뗄튻쳥뮯뷸돌훐ꎬ뺭볃뫍믵뇒솪쏋뗄붨솢뻟폐럇뎣훘튪뗄틢틥ꆣ춳튻믵뇒얷풪뗄랢탐뫍믵뇒솪쏋뗄퓋탐ꎬ뇪횾ퟅ돉풱맺믵뇒헾닟틑뺭뷼뫵췪좫춳튻ꆣ듓튻쳥뮯뷇뛈뾴ꎬ룟뛈뗄믵뇒헾닟튻쳥뮯ꎬ튪쟳룟뛈뗄닆헾헾닟튻쳥뮯ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ듓돉풱맺뷇뛈뾴ꎬ룟뛈뗄믵뇒헾닟튻쳥뮯ꎬ튪틔돉풱맺닆헾헾닟튻뚨돌뛈뗄ퟔ훷좨캪늹돤ꎬ닅쓜쳥쿖얷쏋튻쳥뮯뗄붥뷸탔ꆣ맘볼듊ꎺ얷훞뺭볃ꎻ믵뇒솪쏋ꎻ닆헾헾닟훐춼럖샠뫅ꎺ䘱ㄲ⸲†††컄쿗뇪쪶싫ꎺ?†††컄헂뇠뫅ꎺㄶ㜴ⴹ〶㔨㈰⤰ㄭ〰㌷ⴰ?퓚얷쏋뗄튻쳥뮯뷸돌훐ꎬ뺭볃뫍믵뇒솪쏋뗄붨돠ퟖ늻뗃뎬맽쓪뛈䝄?뗄㌥ꎬ죧폐뎬맽퓲펦놣횤솢뻟폐럇뎣훘튪뗄틢틥ꎬ늻뷶틢캶ퟅ돉풱맺횮볤릲룃뇈훘돖탸뗘ꆢ쇮죋싺틢뗘쿲닎뾼횵뾿슣ꎬ믲헟춬쫐뎡뗄탎돉ꎬ뮹뇪횾ퟅ돉풱맺횮볤뗄뫪맛뺭볃헾돠ퟖ뇈훘뎬돶닎뾼횵뗄쿖쿳횻쫇퓝쪱뗄ꆢ얼좻뗄ꎻ닟킭뗷뷸죫튻룶룟뛈뗄킭뗷튻훂뷗뛎ꆣ쳘뇰쫇춳튻샛믽햮컱늻뗃뎬맽쓪뛈䝄?뗄㘰?ꎬ돽럇샛믽햮컱믵뇒얷풪뗄랢탐뫍믵뇒솪쏋뗄퓋탐ꎬ뇪횾ퟅ돉풱맺헽틔쇮죋싺틢뗄쯙뛈복짙ꎬ늢쿲닎뾼횵뾿슣ꆣㄹ㤷믵뇒헾닟틑뺭뷼뫵췪좫춳튻ꆣ좻뛸퓚닆헾헾닟랽쓪?퓂ㄷ죕춨맽ꆢㄹ㤹쓪뾪쪼쪵쪩뗄ꆶ릫풼ꆷ쫇쏦ꎬ돉풱맺뮹듦퓚튻뚨돌뛈뗄ퟔ평뿕볤ꆣ뺡맜헢ꆶ십풼ꆷ뗄퇓짬뫍늹돤ꎬ쯼붫ꆶ십풼ꆷ훐뗄닆훖ퟔ평뿕볤틑뺭놻ꆶ십쮹쳘샯뫕쳘쳵풼ꆷꎨ틔쿂헾풼쫸맦뚨캪얷풪쟸돉풱맺뇘탫폀뻃ퟱ쫘뗄맦퓲ꎬ볲돆ꆶ십풼ꆷꎩ뫍ꆶ컈뚨뫍퓶뎤릫풼ꆷꎨ틔쿂뷸튻늽쏷좷뫍쾸뮯쇋틔췹닆헾맦퓲ꎬ튪쟳돉풱맺훆볲돆ꆶ릫풼ꆷꎩ쿞뚨쇋ꎬ떫쫇웤ퟔ평뛈뿉쓜냩쯦뚨훐웚돠ퟖ쒿뇪ꎬ퓚뺭볃ힴ뿶솼뫃쪱놣돖돠ퟖꆰ뷓룷맺뛔헾뢮닎폫뺭볃뫍룉풤뺭볃뗄늻춬죏쪶폐쯹늻뷼욽뫢믲펯폠ꆱ틔럀횹뺭볃쮥췋쪱맽뛈돠ퟖ뗄랢춬ꆣ놾듎뗄뷰죚럧놩뫍뺭볃쮥췋뿉쓜쫇뛔헢훖풼쫸짺ꎬ늢춨맽퓧웚풤뺯믺훆뫍맽뛈돠ퟖ돌탲뗄볓쯙뗈솦뗄퇏뻾뾼퇩ꆣ듫쪩살볓듳뛔얷풪쟸돉풱맺뗄닆헾ힴ뿶뗄볠뚽뫍뛔튻ꆢ컊쳢뗄쳡돶맽뛈돠ퟖ뗄풤럀ꆣꆶ릫풼ꆷ튻랽쏦횼퓚맄샸돉풱맺붫솼뫃뗄닆헾ힴ뿶ퟷ캪폀뻃뗄쒿뇪ꎬ틔럀뺭볃쮥ꆶ십풼ꆷ잩쫰폚ㄹ㤲쓪?퓂?죕ꎬ늢폚ㄹ㤳췋쪱돶쿖퇏훘뗄돠ퟖ컊쳢ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ폖훂솦폚쓪ㄱ퓂?죕뾪쪼쪩탐ꎬ헢룶쳵풼뗄훘튪횮뒦늻뷶퓚룸폨돉풱맺룼뛠뿕볤틔폐킧뗘랢믓닆헾헾닟ퟷ캪뺭폚쯼붨솢쇋쿖퓚뗄얷훞솪쏋ꎬ뮹퓚폚쯼쫇듙뷸얷훞볃컈뚨웷뗄릦쓜ꆣ뺭볃쟷춬뗄ퟮ캪훸쏻뗄쳵풼횮튻ꆣꆶ십풼ꆷ짨뚨ꆶ십풼ꆷ릫늼틔뫳ꎬ얷쏋떱쪱뗄돉풱맺럜랢쇋얷훞뺭볃폫믵뇒솪쏋ꎨ䕍?ꎩ뗄죫쏋쏅볷ꎬ튪얬솦ꎬ헹좡듯떽룃쳵풼쯹튪쟳뗄뇪ힼꎬ돉캪얷풪쟳볓죫䕍?뗄맺볒퓚닆헾ힴ뿶랽쏦튪싺ퟣꎺ닆헾쟸뗄뗚튻엺돉풱맺ꆣ뺭맽벸쓪뗄얬솦ꎬ퓚ㄹ㤹쓪쫕룥죕웚ꎺ㈰〹ⴱ㈭㈸ퟷ헟볲뷩ꎺ?볒뚰ꎬ쓐ꎬ쓏뾪듳톧뷌쫚ꎬ늩쪿짺떼쪦ꆣꎨ㌰〰㜱ꎩ퓆†캵ꎬ얮ꎬ쓏뾪듳톧뺭볃톧풺늩쪿짺ꆣꎨ㌰〰㜱ꎩ37
뗚?뻭뗚?웚㈰쓪?퓂䕍?뗚죽뷗뛎웴뚯쪱ꎬ폐ㄱ룶돉풱맺듯떽ꆶ십풼ꆷ틲쯘뗄랴펦ꆣ뗄뇪ힼꎬ돉캪뗚튻엺돉풱ꆣ틔뫳쾣산ꆢ쮹싥컄쓡퓚뺭볃튻쳥뮯맽돌훐뛔돉풱맺헾뢮횧돶ꎬ듓뛸퇇ꆢ십뛺쯻뫍죻웖슷쮹쿈뫳돉캪얷풪쟸뗄돉풱ꆣ쫇닆헾헾닟뗄풼쫸ꎬ훷튪쫇풼쫸헾뢮닎폫뺭볃믮듓얷쏋뗄뷇뛈뾴ꎬ틔춳튻믵뇒랢탐캪훷튪뇪횾뚯ꎬ뎤웚탎돉돠ퟖ닆헾ꎬ뛌웚쓚믡샛볆떱쓪닆헾뗄䕍?뗄붨솢ꎬ뇪횾ퟅ얷훞뗄뺭볃튻쳥뮯듯떽쇋돠ퟖꎬ뎤웚믡샛볆헾뢮릫햮ꆣ헢뻍쫇뗚튻훖돠ퟖꎻ룼룟닣뛈ꆣ듓돉풱맺뗄뷇뛈뾴ꎬ닎볓얷풪쟸뻍틢뛸뗚뛾훖돠ퟖꎬ퓲믡쯦뺭볃훜웚뗄뇤뮯뛸돶쿖퓶캶ퟅꎬ럅웺쇋ퟔ훷훆뚨믵뇒헾닟뗄좨샻ꆣ늻뷶죧복ꎬ믲늹뎥ꆣ뺭볃랱죙웚ꎬ돠ퟖ복짙ꎬ짵훁펮듋ꎬ뾼싇떽컈뚨얷풪뇒횵ꎬ맡뎹춳튻믵뇒헾닟뗄폠ꎬ뺭볃쮥췋웚돠ퟖ퓶볓ꆣ퓚뺭볃튻쳥뮯맽돌훐ꎬ탨튪ꎬ돉풱맺튲럅웺쇋튻늿럖닆헾헾닟뗄훆뚨좨ꎬ뗚뛾훖돠ퟖ튲펦룃쫜떽풼쫸ꎬ떫쫇죧맻룷돉풱맺뺭믲헟쮵닆헾헾닟ퟔ평훆뚨뗄뿕볤쫜떽ꆶ십풼ꆷ뫍볃돶쿖춬늽ꎬ짵훁헻룶튻쳥뮯ퟩ횯뚼춬늽닉탐삩헅뫳살뗄ꆶ릫풼ꆷ쿞훆ꆣ퓚헢솽룶맦퓲훐ꎬ뚼쏷탔헾닟ꎬ헢훖풼쫸훷튪쳥쿖퓚뛔룷돉풱맺삩헅돌뛈좷쇋룷돉풱맺헾뢮퓚퓋폃닆헾헾닟쪱늻쓜캪닎폫룼뗄닮틬짏ꆣ뛠뗄뺭볃퓋탐뛸맽뛈쪹폃닆헾횧돶ꎬ튲늻쓜틲캪캬䅲瑩?뫍䉵瑩嬱?쳖싛쇋얷풪쟸돉풱맺퓚틔ꆶ릫돖뺭볃욽컈퓶뎤뛸맽뛈횧돶ꎬ듓뛸췾킲떽얷풪쟸뗄풼ꆷ훐뗄ꆰ뷓뷼욽뫢믲펯폠ꆱ뗄닆헾쪹닆헾헾닟컈뚨ꎬ뷸뛸췾킲䕍?뗄헽뎣퓋탐ꆣ쓜릻웰떽쓚퓚컈뚨웷뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ믲헟쮵ꎬ튻쳥뮯쯹놾컄쯹맘탄뗄컊쳢쫇ꎬ얷쏋뛔돉풱맺뗄닆헾맦튪쟳뗄닆헾풼쫸늻퓊탭돉풱맺뗄닆헾헾닟뇤돉룉죅퓲쫇럱뛔룷맺닆헾돠ퟖ듦퓚풼쫸ꎬ뛔얷풪쟸돉풱맺뺭볃컈뚨뗄솦솿ꆣퟷ헟춨맽냼몬뷡릹탔돠ퟖ뗄쒣탍퓋폃닆헾헾닟룉풤뺭볃쫇럱뻟폐풼쫸ퟷ폃ꆣ쳘뇰쫇랴펳쇋룷룶돉풱맺뗄닆헾떱뻖폫뎬맺볒뗄믵뇒떱뻖놾듎뷰죚럧놩쫇럱췾킲떽얷쏋뗄닆헾볍싉ꆣ횮볤뮥뚯뗄뺭볃믺훆ꎬ뗃돶쇋ꆰ뷓뷼욽뫢믲펯폠ꆱ뛾ꆢ잰죋뗄퇐뺿돉맻뗄쳵볾폫릫릲닆헾뗄뎤웚돖탸탔횮볤듦퓚ퟅ튻훂탔뗄뷡싛ꆣ뛔얷쏋닆헾맦훆풼쫸킧맻뗄퇐뺿ꎬ붫닆헾헾닟䉵瑩ꎬ副敧敲뫍噥汤嬲?쏨쫶쇋퓚닆헾돠ퟖ쫜쿞릤뻟내헕웤퓚뗷뷚뺭볃훐랢믓ퟷ폃뗄믺훆ꎬ뿉틔럖폚쒳ퟮ룟횵ꎨ죧늻룟폚떱쓪䝄?뗄㌥ꎩ뗄풼쫸쿂ꎬ캪ퟔ뻶뗄닆헾헾닟릤뻟뫍럇ퟔ뻶뗄닆헾헾닟릤뻟ꆣ얷풪쟸뗄돉풱맺헾뢮폫믵뇒헾닟훆뚨헟얷훞훐퇫틸웤훐ퟔ뻶뗄닆헾헾닟릤뻟횸헾뢮룹뻝늻춬쪱웚뗄뺭탐횮볤뗄늩?ꎬ헢솽헟평폚헾닟쒿뇪늻춬ꎬ퓚훆뚨볃탎쫆ꎬ쿠펦닉좡뗄죋캪뗷뷚뗄헾닟릤뻟ꆣ뛸럇헾닟쪱뇘좻뻍믡닺짺튻뚨뗄돥춻ꆣ돉풱맺헾뢮훘쫓ퟔ뻶뗄닆헾헾닟쫇늻탨헾뢮헥ퟃ럖컶뺭볃탎쫆ꎬ뛸닺돶컈뚨ꎬ뛸늻쪮럖맘탄컯볛컈뚨헢퇹튻룶믵뇒솪ퟔ뚯쯦뺭볃탎쫆뗄뇤뮯뛸뇤뮯뗄튻훖럇죋캪뗄뗷뷚쏋뗄쒿뇪ꎬ떫얷훞훐퇫틸탐잡잡쿠랴ꆣ䉵瑩뗈죋뗃릤뻟ꎬ튲놻돆캪ퟔ뚯컈뚨뗄닆헾헾닟ꆣ쿠펦뗘ꎬ돶뷡싛죏캪ꎬ듋늩?훐솽룶뻶닟헟뫏ퟷ뗄쟩뿶뇈늻닆헾돠ퟖ튲뿉틔럖뷢캪솽늿럖ꎺ헾뢮ퟔ뻶톡퓱뗄뷡뫏ퟷ뗄쟩뿶튪뫃ꎬ뛸쟒닆헾헾닟폫믵뇒헾닟횮볤뗄릹탔돠ퟖ뫍럇ퟔ뻶뗄훜웚탔돠ퟖꆣ웤훐ꎬ뷡릹탔맘쾵쫇쳦듺뮹쫇뮥늹폫얷풪쟸돉풱맺쯹퓢쫜뗄돥믷돠ퟖ쫇퓚볙뚨뺭볃뒦폚돤럖뻍튵ힴ첬쪱쯹랢짺뗄풤샠탍쏜쟐쿠맘ꆣ퓚릩룸돥믷쿂ꎬ쯉닆헾헾닟췹췹냩쯣돠ퟖꆣ컒쏇튲붫헢훖돠ퟖ돆캪헾뢮닎폫뺭볃믮쯦ퟅ뷴믵뇒헾닟ꎬ뷴닆헾헾닟냩쯦ퟅ쯉믵뇒헾닟ꎬ뚯쯹듸살뗄돠ퟖꆣ훜웚탔돠ퟖ퓚쫽횵짏뗈폚쪵볊솽듳헾닟릤뻟랽쿲쿠랴ꆣ뛸퓚탨쟳돥믷쿂ꎬ솽헟랽돠ퟖ폫뷡릹탔돠ퟖ뗄닮뛮ꎬ폫쯹뒦뺭볃훜웚믲쟷쿲쿠춬ꆣ䉵瑩뗈죋횸돶쇋믵뇒헾닟뫍닆헾헾닟뗄킭쫆폐맘ꆣ떱뺭볃쿝죫쮥췋쪱ꎬ쮰쫕뗄ퟔ뚯복짙뫍뗷룸돉풱맺뛔뾹돥믷쯹듸살뗄뫃뒦ꎬ늢죏캪폐뇘튪틆탔횧돶뗄ퟔ뚯짏짽릲춬ퟷ폃쯹퓬돉뗄닆헾돠ퟖ뛔헢튻킭뗷뷸탐맦퓲짏뗄풼쫸뫍쮵쏷ꆣ뻍쫇훜웚탔돠ퟖꆣ훜웚탔돠ퟖ뇭쪾뛔뺭볃훜웚탔䉥整獭?뫍啨汩?嬳?쳖싛쇋ꆶ릫풼ꆷ훐뗄닆헾38
맺볊뺭볃햽싔맦퓲뛔돉풱맺헾뢮샛믽햮컱뗄펰쿬ꆣퟷ헟틽죫튻룶뎤뗄럹뛈ꎻ?뇭쪾닆헾돠ퟖ햼䝄?뗄냙럖뇈ꎻ?뇭솽쪱웚쒣탍ꎬ볙짨평폚쿂튻웚늻쓜솬죎ꎬ헾뢮퓚쪾쏻틥샻싊ꎻð캪춨믵엲헍싊ꎬðe캪풤웚춨믵엲헍헾닟훆뚨짏쫇뛌쫓뗄ꎬ폖틲캪헾뢮쾣췻퓚ퟮ뫳뗄죎싊ꎻ⁹?쫇췢맺뗄닺돶쮮욽ꎻe1뫍e2럖뇰쫇탨쟳돥웚쪹웤횧돖헟믱틦ꎬ틲듋믡쟣쿲폚삩듳햮컱퓶볓헾믷뫍릩룸돥믷ꎻ웤훐?ꆢðeꆢ礪ꆢe1뫍e2뻹캪췢뢮횧돶ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뎥뮹햮컱뗄릤ퟷ뻍돉쇋쿂죎헾뢮짺뇤솿ꎬ?ꆢ?ꆢð캪쓚짺뇤솿ꆣ뗄죎컱ꆣ뛸쿂죎헾뢮캪쇋뷢뻶웤잰죎쯹틅쇴뗄햮컱틔짏솽쪽쮵쏷ꎬퟜ탨쟳쫜닆헾쫕횧ꆢ풤웚쪵컊쳢믡쳡룟춨믵엲헍싊ꆣ퓚튻룶믵뇒솪쏋훐ꎬ헢볊샻싊ꆢ췢맺뗄닺돶쮮욽뫍탨쟳돥믷뗄펰쿬ꆣ돠훖룟춨헍싊뗄뢺떣믡틆떽웤쯼맺볒ꎬ퓬돉뢺쏦뗄ퟖ뗄퓶볓풴폚헾뢮횧돶뗄삩듳믲쮰쫕뗄복짙ꎬ틲듋펰쿬ꆣ뛸뎬맺볒뗄믵뇒떱뻖뛔붵뗍춨믵엲헍싊뗄얬믡듌벤뺭볃뗄퓶뎤ꎬ풤웚쪵볊샻싊춨맽뛔춶뫍쿻솦복쟡쇋돉풱맺뗄뢺떣ꎬ쪹뗃돉풱맺퓶볓햮컱뗄쟣럑뗄펰쿬뛔ퟜ탨쟳닺짺랴쿲ퟷ폃ꎬ췢맺쫕죫뗄쳡룟쿲룼볓퇏훘ꆣퟷ헟춨맽퇐뺿ꆶ릫풼ꆷ훐뗄햮컱맦믡퓶볓뛔놾맺닺욷뗄탨쟳ꆣퟜ릩룸몯쫽쫇䱵捡?릩퓲죧뫎펰쿬돉풱맺쏦쇙춬퇹닆헾탨쟳쪱뗄닆헾헾룸몯쫽ꎬ평폚쏻틥뇤솿뗄룕탔뫍탅쾢뗄늻췪좫ꎬ춨닟ꎬ랢쿖ꆶ릫풼ꆷ뛔돉풱맺닆헾ힴ뿶뗄풼쫸뿉틔믵엲헍싊뗄틢췢쳡룟믡퓝쪱퓶볓닺돶쮮욽ꆣb랴펦퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏쿞훆헢훖쟣쿲ꎬ믵뇒솪쏋훐뗄돉풱맺샍뚯솦쫐뎡뗄쇩믮돌뛈ꎬb풽룟ꎬ춨믵엲헍싊뗄믡쟣쿲폚돐떣닆헾뗷헻뗄죎컱ꆣ듋쪱ꎬꆶ릫풼ꆷ틢췢쳡룟뻍풽쓜춨맽붵뗍쪵볊릤듸살뷏듳럹뛈뗄샠쯆쳵풼뗄잩쫰믡쳡룟쯹폐돉풱맺뗄뢣샻뫍닆헾컈릩룸퓶볓ꎬb풽뗍ꎬ쪵볊릤뗄룕탔뻍풽잿ꎬ뛸뚨탔ꆣퟜ릩룸뛔춨믵엲헍싊뗄틢췢퓶뎤뗄랴펦뻍풽동뛛ꆣ떱좻ꎬ뮹폐튻킩퇐뺿쫇뛔닆헾풼쫸폫닆헾돠ퟖ놾컄퇐뺿헾뢮뗄탐캪뻶닟ꎬ틲듋횻뾼싇ퟜ돠ퟖ횮볤맘쾵뷸탐쪵횤럖컶뗄ꆣ뫋탄컊쳢쫇ꎬ헢훖맘훐헾뢮ퟔ뻶뗄뷡릹탔돠ퟖ늿럖ꆣ쾵쫇럱듦퓚ꎬ뛸쟒ꎬ닆헾풼쫸쫇럱폫돉풱맺뗄헾?‽??gy†?e3††††††††††††††††††††††††⠳††?†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††닟ힷ쟳폐쒿뇪뗄닮틬ꎬ틲뛸돉풱맺쫇럱믡닉좡늻뫏웤훐ꎬ???쫇뷡릹탔돠ퟖꎻg쫇돠ퟖ뗄훜웚쏴룐ퟷ뗄헾닟ꆣ놾컄뻍쫇퓚듋믹뒡짏ꎬ샻폃잰죋뗄폐뛈ꎬ랴펦닆헾쫕횧뗄ퟔ뚯컈뚨웷ퟷ폃ꎻe3쫇닆헾맘쒣탍뛔쿖쪵뷸탐볬퇩뫍뇈뷏뗄ꆣ돥믷ꎬ췢짺폚놾쒣탍ꆣ⠳?쪽뇭쏷헾뢮뗄쫕횧평뷡릹탔돠ퟖ뫍훜웚탔돠ퟖퟩ돉ꎬ쫜닆헾돥믷뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛸죽ꆢ얷쏋닆헾풼쫸뛔돉풱맺닆헾돠ퟖ뗄쟒웤훐훜웚탔돠ퟖ좡뻶폚䝄?좱뿚뫍닆헾돠ퟖ뛔닺펰쿬럖컶돶퓶뎤뗄쏴룐뛈ꆣꎨ튻ꎩ믹놾쒣탍뗄붨솢ꎨ뛾ꎩ믹놾쒣탍뗄쟳뷢룹뻝䉵瑩뫍䝩畤楣?嬴?뗄쒣탍ꎬ볙짨폐솽룶맺뷡뫏⠱?쪽뫍⠳?쪽ꎬ쟳뷢뻹뫢쪱뗄닺돶좱뿚뫍춨볒ꎬ놾맺뫍췢맺ꎬ췢맺뗄뺭볃뇤솿뛔폚놾맺살쮵믵엲헍싊ꎺ쫇췢짺룸뚨뗄ꆣ놾맺쫇쾣췻뗚튻엺볓죫얷풪쟸뗄맺††1y=††[a1†d†−a†2(†−p†e)†+a††∗i3y+†e1†+a†1e†3] † † † † † † † s†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††⠴?1+a1g볒횮튻ꎬ펵폐뛀솢뗄믵뇒헾닟뫍닆헾헾닟ꎬ늢쫜††1p=††[a†d−†a†(−†pe)†+†∗123†+1†−(1†+†1)siayeag†e2+†a1e†3]+†pe† ††⠵†?†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††b(1+a1g)떽ꆶ십풼ꆷ훐닆헾맦퓲뗄펰쿬ꆣ쿖퓚튪붨솢튻룶냼몬췢맺뛔놾맺탨쟳뗄뇪ힼퟜ뻹뫢뗄닺돶퓶뎤평뷡릹탔돠ퟖꆢ풤웚쪵볊샻싊탨쟳몯쫽뫍튻룶볲떥뗄ퟜ릩룸몯쫽ꆣ뫍췢맺닺돶쮮욽틔벰탨쟳돥믷뫍닆헾돥믷뻶뚨ꎬ뛸†††††††††††††††††††††††††뻹††뫢†뗄†춨†믵†엲†헍††싊†쫜†떽†뷡†릹††탔
돠ㄩퟖꆢ풤웚쪵볊샻y=a1d−a2(−pei)+a3y*+e1 싊ꆢ췢맺닺돶쮮욽뫍탨쟳ꆢ릩룸ꆢ닆헾죽훘돥믷†y=†b†(p††−p†e†)+†e††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††⠲?2뗄펰쿬ꆣ 웤훐ꎬ?쫇䝄?좱뿚냙럖뇈ꎬ뗈폚ꎨ쪵볊䝄倭ꎨ죽ꎩꆶ십풼ꆷ맦퓲쿂뗄닆헾돠ퟖ뻶닟잱퓚䝄?ꎩ⼠잱퓚䝄?ꎬ뇭쪾쪵볊닺돶뎬맽ퟔ좻퓶ꆶ십풼ꆷ튪쟳ꎬ듓䕍?뗄붨솢뾪쪼ꎬ돉풱맺39
뗚?뻭뗚?웚㈰쓪?퓂뗄닆헾돠ퟖ늻뗃뎬맽쓪뛈䝄?뗄㌥ꎬ뇭쪾캪ꎺퟖ뗄튻룶틲쯘ꎬ쪵볊짏ꎬ떱ꆶ십풼ꆷ냤늼횮뫳ꎬ†d腀ꇜ††d†††††††††††††††††††††††얷†풪††쟸†돉†풱†맺†죔†펵††폐†뛀†솢†뗄†믵††뇒†헾†닟†ꎬ†쯼†쏇††뿉†틔†춨†††††††††††⠶?웤훐?d† † 캪? ㌥ ꆣ 맽 쫊 떱뗄믵뇒헾닟폫닆헾헾닟뗄뷡뫏뻶뚨뻹뫢샻헢샯춨맽헾뢮뗄쯰쪧몯쫽살췆닢헾뢮뗄탐캪ꆣ싊ꆣ헢샯춨맽뛔쒣탍뗄탞헽살쓚짺뮯쏻틥샻싊ꆣ볙짨헾뢮퓚쿲䕍?맽뛉뗄뷗뛎ꎬ붫㌥뗄돠ퟖ쮮욽놾컄뷨훺첩샕맦퓲살뷢뻶헢튻컊쳢ꆣ첩샕맦퓲짨뚨캪ퟔ벺뗄닆헾쒿뇪ꎬ쾣췻뺡뿉쓜킡뗘욫샫†d† ꎬ 쫇 쏨 쫶 튻 맺 훐 퇫 틸 탐 틔 샻 싊 캪 훐 뷩 쒿 뇪 ꎬ 틔 춨 믵 엲 춬쪱ꎬ헾뢮뮹쾣췻놣돖뷏룟뗄닺돶퓶뎤ꎬ떫쫇평헍뫍뺭볃컈뚨캪헾닟쒿뇪뗄튻훖믵뇒헾닟횸쓏ꆣ뿉폚돠ퟖ풼쫸뗄듦퓚ꎬ룟뗄닺돶좱뿚탨튪뷏룟뗄닆헾틔뇭쫶캪ꎺ돉놾ꆣ†i=†p††+†i†+†h(†p†−†p†)†+†g†y† ††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††⠱〩†††††2L=††††††2(d−d)+q1(y−y′) † † † † † †††††††††?††††††††††††††††††††††††
㜩웤훐ꎬ?뇭쪾헾뢮듓닆헾헾닟훐퓢쫜뗄쯰쪧ꎻ웤훐ꎬ?ꎬꛐ뫍?죔럖뇰캪쏻틥샻싊ꆢ춨믵엲??뇭쪾쪵볊닆헾돠?ퟖꎻ††캪헾뢮ퟜ돠ퟖ뗄쒿뇪㌥ꎻ헍싊뫍䝄?좱뿚냙럖뇈ꎬ†i캪?뻹뫢헦쪵샻싊ꎬ†p†캪춨d ?뇭쪾쪵볊닺돶좱뿚ꎻy′뇭쪾헾뢮쯹ힷ쟳뗄닺돶좱믵엲헍싊쒿뇪ꎬ?뫍?럖뇰캪쏻틥샻싊뛔춨믵엲헍뿚ꎬ죴돉풱맺헾뢮횻쫇볲떥뗘ힷ쟳뺭볃훜웚뗄컈싊욫닮뫍䝄?좱뿚뗄랴펦쾵쫽ꆣ뚨ꎬ쾣췻붫닺돶쮮욽쿞뚨퓚웤잱퓚쮮욽ퟳ폒ꎬ첩샕맦퓲쮵쏷튻맺헾뢮춨맽뗷뿘샻싊쪵쿖믵뇒y′캪?ꎻ죴헾뢮쾣췻쪵볊닺돶쮮욽뎬맽잱퓚닺돶쮮헾닟뗄쒿뇪ꆣ붫훐퇫틸탐뗄믵뇒헾닟뫍룃맺헾뢮뗄욽ꎬ벴ힷ쟳폫뗍폚ퟔ좻쪧튵싊뗄쪧튵싊쿠뛔펦뗄닺닆헾헾닟뷡뫏웰살ꎬ뻟쳥살쮵ꎬ뻍쫇뷡뫏⠴?쪽ꆢ돶퓶뎤싊ꎬ퓲?y′듳폚?ꎻq뇭쪾헾뢮뛔돠ퟖ쒿뇪⠵?쪽ꆢ⠹?쪽뫍⠱〩쪽ꎬ늢쟒캪쇋볲뇣ꎬ쪡싔쯹폐돥1뫍닺돶쒿뇪뗄쿠뛔욫뫃ꎬq쿠뛔풽듳ꎬ헾뢮뛔닺돶믷틲쯘ꎬ늢듺죫첩샕퓚쳡돶첩샕맦퓲횮쪱룸돶뗄?1퓶뎤뗄훘쫓뻍풽듳폚뛔돠ퟖ쮮욽짏쿞뗄ힷ쟳ꆣ뫍?뗄닎뾼횵〮?ꎬ뗃떽ꎺ튪힢틢뗄쫇ꎬ헾뢮뿉틔뿘훆뗄쫇ퟔ뻶뗄돠ퟖ늿BCd′a1q11a11=ꏻ1(+g)d+y′+ sBC−a1a2(+)ABB럖ꎬ틲듋컒쏇붫ꎨ?ꎩ쪽듺죫ꎨ?ꎩ쪽ꎬ쟳뷢a2b(1+a1g)A(++++21)2A−2pe(i−) BCBCBퟜ돠ퟖꎺ†a1a†3(1†.5+††b)†a†3A+−†y*†ꏽ † †††††††††††††††††††††††††††††⠱ㄩ††††1†††††††††††††††††††††††††††B†C†††B†d=[d+ag−ei−y∗−+ as2(p)a3gge1e3]†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
㠩1+1g웤훐ꎬA†ꎽa†1q1†−g†ꎬ †Bꎽ†1+†a21†q붫웤뫍ꎨ?ꎩ쪽튻웰듺죫ꎨ?ꎩ쪽ꎬ늢춨맽1ꎬ †C†ꎽ?†b†(1†+†a†1g†+†0†.5†a†2)+††2ꎬ ††††††††††††††?붫?ꎬ?듺죫⠹?쪽ꎬ늢쪡싔돥믷틲쯘뗃ꎺ쟳뷢?뗄ퟮ킡횵뗃돶뷡릹탔돠ퟖ뗄ퟮ폅뷢ꎺ††1††a††(†††)d1q11+a1g†††a†A†††A†††a++2a−2e′s1=dyip−†3A††∗y ††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††⠱㈩1a1q1(1+a1g)ad2(a1q1−g)BBBBB2+(e2is1=2d+y′−p) 1+a1q11+a1q11+a2q1뛔뇈ꎨㄱꎩ쪽뫍ꎨㄲꎩ쪽ꎬ죴?듳폚?ꋙꎬ†a††g†a†q+311 ††(†−††††)††∗††g††−†a+†1q†1 e1+2y††−ea†3†††††††††††††퓲†B†C†[B††C†−a††(††††††)†]+††듳†폚†?†ꋚ†ꎬ†?猱†ꇤ††훐††d†ꎬ ?† y ′†ꎬ † † † † † † † † † † † † †
㤩 1q11+a211q1헢뻍쫇돉풱맺헾뢮ퟮ킡뮯웤쯰쪧뫳뗄ퟮ폅돠ퟖp?뫍⁹?뗄쾵쫽뚼듳폚?猱훐쿠펦뇤솿뗄쾵쫽ꎬ쮵톡퓱ꎬ헢룶돠ퟖ쮮욽쫜닆헾맦퓲훐뗄돠ퟖ짏쿞ꆢ닺쏷평폚샻싊뗄훐뷩ퟷ폃ꎬ헢킩뇤솿퓚샻싊쓚짺쪱뛔돶쒿뇪ꆢ풤웚쪵볊샻싊ꆢ췢맺뗄닺돶쮮욽뫍룷훖뷡릹탔돠ퟖ뗄펰쿬놻럅듳쇋ꆣ늻뷶죧듋ꎬ?猱ꇤ뇈돥믷뗄펰쿬ꎬ튲폫헾뢮뛔돠ퟖ쒿뇪폫닺돶쒿뇪뗄쿠?猱뮹뛠튻룶뎣쫽쿮††a2†b(1†+a†1g†)A (†i−††p)BC†ꎬ†헢†쫇†샻†싊†††††뛔욫뫃뗈닎쫽폐맘ꆣ틲쯘놾짭뛔뷡릹탔돠ퟖ펰쿬뗄쳥쿖ꆣꎨ쯄ꎩꆶ십풼ꆷ맦퓲쿂뗄닆헾돠ퟖ뻶닟뗄믹놾듓ꎨㄱꎩ쪽살뾴ꎬ퓚ꆶ십풼ꆷ랢믓킧솦웚볤ꎬ쒣탍뗄탞헽돉풱맺헾뢮뗄ퟮ폅돠ퟖ뻶닟쫜떽닆헾맦퓲ꆢ놾맺틔퓚잰컄훐ꎬ컒쏇붫쏻틥샻싊ퟷ캪펰쿬뷡릹탔돠벰췢맺틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ쫗쿈쫇닆헾맦퓲훐돠ퟖ짏쿞뗄40
맺볊뺭볃햽싔펰쿬ꆣ돠ퟖ짏쿞뗄쳡룟틢캶ퟅ뷡릹탔돠ퟖ뗄뗷헻뿕쟳돥믷뫍닆헾돥믷뗄펰쿬ꆣ볤뇤킡ꎬ뷡릹탔돠ퟖ튲뻍뇘탫쯦횮붵뗍ꎬ랴횮틠룷훖돥믷믡펰쿬닺돶훜웚탔늨뚯뗄맦쒣뫍삩즢좻ꆣ헢쮵쏷ꎬ죴돉풱맺붫닆헾맦퓲훐뗄돠ퟖ짏쿞돌뛈ꎬ늢춨맽듋춾뺶펰쿬뷡릹탔돠ퟖ뗄쮮욽ꆣ헢ퟷ캪ퟔ벺쯹ힷ쟳뗄쒿뇪ꎬ쒿뇪돠ퟖ쮮욽풽뗍ꎨ돠랽쏦뗄쟷쫆뮹늻짵쏷샊ꎬ떫뿉틔풤볆뗄쫇ꎬ듓뎤ퟖ뻸뛔횵풽킡ꎩꎬ뷡릹탔돠ퟖ뗄쮮욽튲풽뗍ꆣ웚살뾴ꎬ얷풪쟸돉풱맺횮볤뗄훜웚탔뇤솿뗄랽쿲믡웤듎쫇놾맺틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ돉풱맺헾뢮뗄닺돶좱늻뛏쟷춬ꎬ뛸얷풪쟸헻쳥뗄틔컈뚨캪떼쿲뗄뫪맛헾뿚쒿뇪펰쿬ퟅ헾뢮뗄닆헾쫕횧뻶닟ꎬ헢쫇죝틗샭뷢닟뿲볜튲믡쪹뗃웤돉풱맺맺뇰뗄헾닟틽훂뗄돥믷훰뗄ꆣ틲캪ퟷ캪헾뢮쯹ힷ쟳뗄쒿뇪ꎬ닺돶퓶뎤뇘좻붥복짙ꆣ떫쫇듓뛌웚뾴ꎬ늻춬뺭볃뷡릹쿂컈뚨릤펰쿬ퟅ헾뢮뗄탐캪ꆣ죴헾뢮ힷ쟳룟폚잱퓚닺돶뗄쪵뻟뗄킧맻뿉쓜죔좻믡쫜떽맺쓚뺭볃훜웚뗄펰쿬ꆣ볊닺돶ꎬ퓲헾뢮돠ퟖ튲탨튪쿠펦퓶볓ꎬ죴헾뢮럅웺뛔닺돶퓶뎤뗄ힷ쟳ꎬ횻튪쟳ퟔ좻뗄닺돶퓶뎤싊ꎬ쯄ꆢ얷쏋닆헾맦퓲폫킧맻뗄쪵볹쒿뇪닺돶좱뿚뻍늻믡펰쿬헾뢮뗄뻶닟ꆣꎨ튻ꎩ얷풪쟸헻쳥뗄닆헾ힴ뿶놾맺뗄풤웚춨믵엲헍싊튲춨맽펰쿬쪵볊샻싊펰쯦ퟅ䕍?뷸죫ힼ놸뷗뛎뫍ꆶ십풼ꆷ뛔죫쏋맺쿬ퟅ헾뢮뗄뷡릹탔돠ퟖꎬ풤웚춨믵엲헍싊풽룟ꎬ쪵볒닆헾ힴ뿶뗄튪쟳ꎬ얷풪쟸돉풱맺퓚떱쪱뇣뾪쪼쇋볊샻싊뻍풽뗍ꎬ믡펰쿬춶쯦횮붵뗍돉풱맺뗄닺늻춬돌뛈뗄닆헾뗷헻ꎬ듓헢킩맺볒뗄헻쳥쟩뿶살돶ꎬ틲듋탨튪볓듳뷡릹탔돠ퟖ틔놣횤뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ쇭뾴ꎬ닆헾뗷헻뗄킧맻쫇쿔훸뗄ꎬ뇭쿖캪닆헾돠ퟖ췢ꎬ듓⠱㈩쪽훐쪵볊샻싊폫ퟮ폅돠ퟖ뗄쾵쫽럻뫅잡뗄붵뗍뫍햮컱ힴ뿶뗄뫃ꎬ떫쫇ꆶ릫풼ꆷ쪵쪩횮뫃뿉틔퇩횤?듳폚?뗄볙짨ꆣ뫳ꎬ닆헾뗷헻뗄늽랥쯆뫵럅뮺쇋튻킩ꆣ뗚죽쫇췢맺틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚쒣탍훐횻뾼싇쇋솽죧춼?ꎬ퓚ꆶ십풼ꆷ냤늼횮뫳ꎬ얷풪쟸ퟜ쳥룶맺볒ꎬ웤훐췢맺춨맽쪵볊닺돶펰쿬놾맺뗄닆헾돠뗄돠ퟖ쮮욽폐쇋쿔훸늢돖탸뗄붵뗍ꎬ평ㄹ㤳쓪뗄붫ퟖ뻶닟ꆣ췢맺뗄닺돶풽룟ꎬ뛔놾맺닺욷뗄탨쟳뻍뷼㘥붵뗍떽㈰〰쓪뗄ㄥퟳ폒ꆣ뛸쟒듓ㄹ㤷쓪뾪믡풽듳ꎬ듓뛸웰떽듸뚯놾맺뺭볃뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ헢퇹뇣쪼ꎬ헢킩맺볒뗄헻쳥돠ퟖ쮮욽뻍틑뺭붵떽쇋㌥횮복쟡쇋놾맺헾뢮삭뚯닺돶좱뿚뗄뢺떣ꎬ튲뻍붵뗍쇋쿂ꎨ춼?훐뗄쮮욽쿟뛎뇭쪾㌥뗄돠ퟖ쮮욽뫍㘰?ퟮ폅돠ퟖ쮮욽ꆣ듓⠱㈩쪽훐폖튻듎퇩횤쇋?듳폚?뗄뗄샛믽햮컱맦쒣ꎩꆣ뿉틔뾴돶헢킩맺볒캪쇋쓜돉캪볙짨ꆣ䕍?뗄뗚튻엺돉풱좷쪵뷸탐쇋ힿ폐돉킧뗄얬솦ꆣ떫돽짏쫶틲쯘횮췢ꎬ뮹폐튻킩틲쯘탨튪뾼싇ꆣ쫇ꎬ듓㈰〰쓪뾪쪼ꎬ돠ퟖ쮮욽뗄뇤뮯쟷쫆늻쏷샊뗚튻룶틲쯘쫇탨쟳돥믷ꆣ뢺쏦뗄탨쟳돥믷ꎬ죧쇋ꎬ듓㈰〰쓪떽㈰〳쓪ꎬ돠ퟖ쮮욽퓶볓떽㌥뗄쮽죋춶뗄복짙믡펰쿬맺쓚뗄닺돶쮮욽ꎬ쪹돉풱맺짏쿞ꎬ좻뫳폖뾪쪼복짙ꆣ튲탭쫇틲캪돉풱맺볓죫헾뢮쳡룟뷡릹탔돠ퟖ틔뗖쿻헢훖늻샻킧펦ꆣ䕍?뫳ꎬ평폚돠ퟖ쮮욽틑뺭듯떽닆헾맦퓲뗄튪쟳ꎬ뗚뛾룶틲쯘쫇닆헾돥믷ꎬ훷튪횸틢췢뗄쮰쫕쿂틲듋늻퓙볌탸틔붵뗍돠ퟖ캪헾닟뗄훷튪쒿뇪ꎬ늻퓙붵ꎬ늻뿉풤볻뗄횧돶퓶볓ꎬ냼삨틽웰늻쓜췪좫놻볌탸듳솦뛈뗘닉좡뷴쯵돠ퟖ뗄헾닟ꆣ뷡릹탔뗄돠ퟖ돥뗖뗄샻싊뢺떣뗄샻싊늨뚯ꆣ뢺쏦뗄ꎨ뛾ꎩꆶ십풼ꆷ횮뫳얷풪쟸돉풱맺뗄닆헾돠ퟖ닆헾돥믷듸살쇋닆헾ힴ뿶뗄늻컈뚨탔ꎬ믡튪쟳돉풱쟩탎맺헾뢮쳡룟뷡릹탔돠ퟖ틔듯떽ퟮ폅뗄돠ퟖ쮮욽ꆣ듓샛믽햮컱뗄맦쒣춬돠ퟖ쮮욽쫇쏜쟐쿠맘뗄ꎬ틲⠹?쪽뾴떽ꎬ돉풱맺뗄닆헾돠ퟖ쮮욽퓚뛌웚쓚쫜떽탨캪샛믽햮컱쫇죴룉쓪닆헾돠ퟖ뗄믽샛ꎬ쯹틔샛믽햮41
뗚?뻭뗚?웚㈰쓪?퓂춼?ꎺㄹ㤱ꆫ㈰〶쓪얷풪쟸뗄닆헾ힴ뿶힢ꎺퟳퟝ훡뇭쪾헾뢮펯폠햼䝄?뗄뇈훘ꎬ폒ퟝ훡뇭쪾샛믽햮컱햼䝄?뗄뇈훘ꆣ쇏살풴ꎺ䥮瑥牮慴楯湡氠䵯湥瑡特⁆畮搬⁗潲汤⁅捯湯浩挠併瑬潯欠䑡瑡扡獥Ⱐ佣瑯扥爠뫍㈰䕵〷牯獴慴ꎬ볻桴瑰㨯?数瀮敵牯獴慴挮敵牯灡甯瑧洯瑡扬攮摯㽴慢㵴慢汥♩湩琽ㄦ灬畧楮㴠〦污湧畡来‽敮♰捯摥㵮愲㈰灣컱뗄붵뗍쫇튻볾볨쓑뗄쫂쟩ꎬ닆헾돠ퟖ뗄돖탸돶쿖틢뗄쯙뛈복짙ꎬ늢쿲닎뾼횵뾿슣뗄ꆣ좻뛸뷼쓪살ꎬ믡떼훂샛믽햮컱뗄늻뛏퓶볓ꆣ듓얷풪쟸ퟜ쳥살뾴ꎬ햮컱쮮욽늢캴볌탸붵뗍ꎬ뛸쫇퓚㘸?떽㜰?횮볤엇샛믽햮컱퓚ㄹ㤶쓪듯떽ퟮ룟뗣㜵⸴㘥ꎬ횮뫳뾪쪼뮲ꎬ헢폫컒쏇맛달떽뗄돠ퟖ쟩뿶폐쯹쿠쯆ꆣ쯆뫵훰붥뮺싽붵뗍ꎬ퓚ㄹ㤹쓪ꎬ얷풪쟸헻쳥뗄햮컱쮮쫇돉풱맺볓죫䕍?횮뫳ꎬ쏦쇙쇋닆헾뗷헻뗄톹솦욽틀좻룟폚ꆶ십풼ꆷ쯹맦뚨뗄㘰?뗄짏쿞ꎬ떫듓복킡ꎬ틲듋믡닺짺퓶볓돠ퟖ뗄쟣쿲ꆣㄹ㤶쓪떽㈰〲쓪ꎬ얷풪쟸뗄햮컱맦쒣쫇퓚틔쇮죋싺춼?ꎺㄹ㠱쓪뫍ㄹ㤳쓪얷풪쟸돉풱맺ꎨㄳ맺ꎩ뗄닆헾쫕횧힢ꎺ춼훐ퟖ쒸쯹듺뇭뗄맺볒틀듎캪䅕?ꎺ냂뗘샻†††䉅ꎺ?뇈샻쪱†††䙉ꎺ?럒삼†††䙒ꎺ?램맺†††䝅ꎺ?뗂맺䝒?ꎺ쾣산††⁉剅ꎺ낮뛻삼†††䥔ꎺ?틢듳샻†††䱕ꎺ?슬즭놤†††久ꎺ?뫉삼偏?ꎺ웏쳑퇀†††卌?ꎺ쮹싥컄쓡퇇†††卐?ꎺ컷냠퇀ꎨ쿂컄춬ꎩꆣ쇏살풴ꎺ䥮瑥牮慴楯湡氠䵯湥瑡特⁆畮搬⁗潲汤⁅捯湯浩挠併瑬潯欠䑡瑡扡獥Ⱐ佣瑯扥爠㈰〷42
맺볊뺭볃햽싔춼?ꎺㄹ㤱ꆫ㈰〶쓪얷풪쟸돉풱맺ꎨ맺ꋛꎩ닆헾ힴ뿶힢ꎺퟳퟝ훡뇭쪾헾뢮펯폠햼䝄?뗄뇈훘ꎬ폒ퟝ훡뇭쪾샛믽햮컱햼䝄?뗄뇈훘ꆣ쇏살풴ꎺ䥮瑥牮慴楯湡氠䵯湥瑡特⁆畮搬⁗潲汤⁅捯湯浩挠併瑬潯?䑡瑡扡獥Ⱐ佣瑯扥爠㈰〷뫍䕵牯獴慴춼?뇭쪾뗄쫇얷풪쟸맺듓ㄹ㤱쓪떽㈰〶쓪뗄닆헾ힴ뿶ꎨ춬춼?ꎬ쎿룶춼훐뗄쮮욽쿟뛎뇭쪾㌥뗄돠ퟖ쮮욽뫍㘰?뗄샛믽햮컱맦쒣ꎩꆣㄹ㤳쓪ꎬ돽뗂맺ꆢ낮뛻삼뫍냂뗘샻틔췢뗄듳늿럖맺볒뗄닆헾쮮욽뚼폫㌥뗄돠ퟖ짏쿞폐ퟅ쿠떱튻뛎닮뻠ꎬ뛸듓ㄹ㤳쓪뾪쪼ꎬ헢킩43
뗚?뻭뗚?웚㈰쓪?퓂맺볒뗄ퟜ돠ퟖ쯦ퟅ뷡릹탔돠ퟖ뗄붵뗍쏷쿔복짙ꎬ죧뗄돍랣쾸퓲뛔돉풱맺뗄킧솦쯆뫵쎻폐쿫쿳훐뗄퇏룱ꆣ뇈샻쪱퓚?쓪볤복짙쇋?룶냙럖뗣뗄돠ퟖꎬ틢듳샻㈰〰쓪뫳ꎬ튻킩맺볒뗄돠ퟖ좷쪵놣돖퓚ꆶ릫뗄돠ퟖ복짙쇋?룶냙럖뗣ꎬ웏쳑퇀뗄돠ퟖ튲복짙쇋풼ꆷ쯹튪쟳뗄ꆰ뷓뷼욽뫢믲펯폠ꆱ뗄쮮욽ꎬ죧?룶냙럖뗣ퟳ폒ꎬ뛸럒삼돠ퟖ뗄붵럹ퟮ듳ꎬㄹ㤳쓪뇈샻쪱ꆢ럒삼ꆢ낮뛻삼뫍컷냠퇀ꆣ뛸쇭췢튻킩맺럒삼뗄돠ퟖ뮹쫇㠥ꎬ횮뫳돠ퟖ늻뛏복짙ꎬ퓚㈰〰볒ꎬ죧냂뗘샻뫍뫉삼퓚㌥뗄쇙뷧쿟짏뢡뚯ꎬ램쓪쪱ꎬ럒삼뗄닆헾쫕횧틑뺭폐㘮㤥뗄펯폠ꎬ볲횱맺ꆢ뗂맺ꆢ쾣산ꆢ틢듳샻뫍웏쳑퇀뚼퓚㈰〰쓪뫳뻍쫇얷풪쟸닆헾뷴쯵뗄뗤랶ꆣ닺짺쇋늻춬돌뛈뫍욵싊뗄맽뛈돠ퟖꎬ뛸쟒폐킩맺볒닆헾ힴ뿶뷏뫃뗄맺볒쯤좻쎻폐쏦쇙쯵복돠ퟖ뗄뮹폐ퟅ퓶볓돠ퟖ뗄쟷쫆ꆣ웏쳑퇀듓㈰〳쓪뾪쪼ꎬ솬뻞듳톹솦ꎬ떫쫇춬퇹튲퓚붵뗍돠ퟖ쮮욽ꆣ냂뗘샻탸죽쓪돠ퟖ듯떽㌥틔짏ꆣ뗂맺뗄닆헾돠ퟖ듓㈰〱퓚뺭샺쇋ㄹ㤴쓪뫍ㄹ㤵쓪솬탸솽쓪뗄돠ퟖ퓶볓틔쓪뾪쪼퓶볓ꎬ늢퓚㈰〲쓪떽㈰〵쓪솬탸쯄쓪뎬맽뫳ꎬ튲뾪쪼늻뛏뗘쯵복돠ퟖꎬ퓚ㄹ㤷쓪뻍틑뺭듯㌥뗄돠ퟖ짏쿞ꆣ램맺뗄쟩뿶튲뫜샠쯆ꎬ듓㈰〲쓪떽쇋ꆶ십풼ꆷ뛔돠ퟖ뗄튪쟳ꆣ낮뛻삼듓ꆶ십풼ꆷ뾪쪼솬탸죽쓪닺짺맽뛈돠ퟖꆣ램맺뫍뗂맺뗄닆헾ힴ냤늼돵쪼뻍틑뺭싺ퟣ죫쏋튪쟳ꎬ떫웤죔춬웤쯻맺볒뿶믡닺짺ퟮ캪맣랺뗄펰쿬ꎬ틲캪헢솽룶맺볒뗄닺돶튻웰ꎬ볌탸붵뗍돠ퟖꎬ떽㈰〰쓪ꎬ낮뛻삼뗄닆헾횮뫍햼헻룶얷풪쟸닺돶ퟜ뫍뗄튻냫ퟳ폒ꎬ쯻쏇뗄맽펯폠틑뺭듯떽떱쓪䝄?뗄㐮㐥ꆣ돽쇋ㄹ㤵쓪뫍ㄹ㤶뛈돠ퟖ믡룸헻룶얷풪쟸듸살뺭볃짏뗄늻솼펰쿬뫍맦쓪틔췢ꎬ뗂맺뗄돠ퟖ쮮욽튻횱놣돖퓚㌥뗄짏쿞횮퓲짏뗄뢺쏦뗄쪾랶킧펦ꆣ쿂ꎬ횱떽㈰〲쓪돶쿖맽뛈돠ퟖꆣ헢튻뷗뛎ꎬ듳뛠쫽돉풱맺뗄샛믽햮컱뚼퓚틔늻춬듓샛믽햮컱뗄맦쒣짏뾴ꎬㄹ㤳쓪틔뫳ꎬ뗂맺쯙싊늻뛏쿂붵ꆣ뛸램맺ꆢ뗂맺ꆢ틢듳샻ꆢ뫉삼뫍뫍램맺뗄햮컱맦쒣늢쎻폐쿔훸뗄뇤뮯ꎬ튻횱뇈뷏럻웏쳑퇀뗄샛믽햮컱좴폐ퟅ믲퓶볓믲늻뇤뗄쟷쫆ꆣ뫏㘰?뗄닆헾맦퓲ꆣ폐뫜뛠맺볒뗄햮컱쿂붵뗄쟷쫆뫜뛠돉풱맺좷쪵내헕ꆶ릫풼ꆷ뗄튪쟳ꎬ틔ꆰ뷓럇뎣쿔훸ꎬ죧뇈샻쪱ꆢ럒삼ꆢ낮뛻삼ꆢ웏쳑퇀ꆢ뷼욽뫢믲펯폠ꆱ캪쒿뇪ꎬ볌탸뗷헻닆헾헾닟ꎬ붵컷냠퇀ꆢ뫉삼뗈ꎬ뺡맜웤훐튻킩맺볒뗄샛믽햮컱뗍돠ퟖ쮮욽ꆣ떫춬쪱튲폐짙쫽맺볒럅쯉쇋뛔돠ퟖ쮮햼䝄?뗄뇈훘훁뷱죔캴듯떽㘰?뗄뇪ힼꎬ떫쫇본욽뗄볠뿘ꆣ헢믲탭쫇평폚뛠폠돠ퟖ뗄볠뚽맽돌늢캴폚햮컱맦쒣퓚늻뛏쿂붵늢쿲닎뾼횵뾿슣ꎬ튲럻뫏닆랢믓웤펦폐뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ뛸돍랣듫쪩폖늻릻퇏샷뫍톸헾맦퓲ꆣ뫍헢킩맺볒쿠뇈ꎬ냂뗘샻뇭쿖늢늻뺡죧쯙ꎬ돉풱맺볓죫얷풪쟸뫳폐쇋킸떡뫍뛔맽뛈돠ퟖ늻죋틢ꎬ웤햮컱쮮욽튻횱놣돖퓚㘵?ퟳ폒ꎬ쟒늢쎻ퟷ캪뗄뚯솦ꎬ틔벰퓶볓돠ퟖ뗄쟣쿲ꆣ폐쏷쿔뗄붵뗍쟷쫆ꆣ뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ돉풱맺뾪쪼닉좡뷴쯵뗄닆헾헾닟뗄컥ꆢ믹놾뷡싛폫뷰죚럧놩ꆢ뺭볃쮥췋돥믷쪱볤좷쪵폫ꆶ십풼ꆷ뗄냤늼쪱볤쿠컇뫏ꆣ뿉틔죏듓얷쏋뗄쪵볹뺭퇩뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ쪵쪩ꆶ십풼ꆷ캪ꎬ쫇ꆶ십풼ꆷ뗄닆헾맦퓲룸돉풱맺듸살쇋쯵복횮잰ꎬ얷풪쟸돉풱캪럻뫏폐맘뇪ힼꎬ믽벫복짙뛌돠ퟖ뫍붵뗍샛믽햮컱뗄톹솦ꎬ돉풱맺닉좡뷴쯵헾닟웚닆헾돠ퟖ뫍훐웚맺햮햼䝄?뗄뇈훘ꎬ뇭쏷돉풱맺늢좡뗃쇋쿔훸뗄킧맻ꆣ뛔믵뇒솪쏋붨짨뗄믽벫탔ꎬ튲풸틢죃뛉ퟔ벺뗄폐맘ꎨ죽ꎩꆶ릫풼ꆷ횮뫳얷풪쟸돉풱맺뗄닆헾ힴ뿶ퟔ훷좨샻ꎬ듓뛸풸틢ퟱ쫘폐맘뗄닆헾맦퓲ꆣ돉캪ㄹ㤹쓪횮뫳ꎬ돉풱맺뷴쯵뗄닆헾헾닟벰웤킧맻얷풪쟸돉풱맺틔뫳ꎬ쯻쏇훰늽쫊펦놣돖쫊뛈닆헾돠폐쇋튻킩캢쏮뗄뇤뮯ꆣ볓죫얷풪쟸틔뫳ꎬꆶ릫풼ꆷퟖ뗄헾닟톡퓱ꎬ뺡맜룷맺뮹쫇놣쇴닆헾돠ퟖꎬ떫쪹뗃ꆶ십풼ꆷ훐뗄닆헾맦퓲돉캪폀뻃뗄풼쫸ꆣ떫쫇뛠쫽쟩뿶뒦폚뎬맽뷧쿞뗄뇟풵ꎬ짵훁쪱폐캥놳뗄쫇헽죧튻킩톧헟쯹떣탄뗄ꎬ헢룶폀뻃풼쫸틔벰ꆶ릫쟩뿶ꆣ퓚ꆶ릫풼ꆷ횴탐뫳ꎬ룷맺룟뛈훘쫓ꆰ뷓풼ꆷ훐쫗듎맦뚨뗄뛠폠돠ퟖ뗄볠뚽맽돌뫍훘탂쏷좷뷼욽뫢믲펯폠ꆱꆣ뺡맜죧듋ꎬ틔펦뛔뺭볃훜웚ꎬ44
맺볊뺭볃햽싔믲룉풤뺭볃퓋탐뗄닆헾돠ퟖ뗄뿉쓜삩듳ꎬ죔좻쫇얷뗄뫋탄쫇ꎬ믵뇒뫍닆헾헾닟킭뗷믲춳튻늽랥뗄늻튻풪쟸쏦쇙뗄훘듳쳴햽ꆣ돉풱맺헫뛔ꆶ컈뚨폫퓶뎤훂뿉쓜듸살뗄컊쳢ꆣ튻랽쏦ꎬ듓튻쳥뮯뷇뛈뾴ꎬ릫풼ꆷ횴탐컊쳢뗄헹틩훕폚퓚㈰〵쓪?퓂폐쇋뷡룟뛈뗄믵뇒헾닟튻쳥뮯ꎬ튪쟳룟뛈뗄닆헾헾닟튻쳥맻ꎬ얷쏋뒺벾쫗쓔믡틩퓚늼슳죻뛻춨맽쇋뛔ꆶ컈뮯ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ듓돉풱맺뷇뛈뾴ꎬ룟뛈뗄믵뇒헾뚨폫퓶뎤릫풼ꆷ뗄탞룄랽낸ꎬ훷튪퓚틔쿂랽쏦듯닟튻쳥뮯ꎬ튪틔돉풱맺닆헾헾닟뗄튻뚨돌뛈뗄ퟔ훷돉튻훂ꎺ튻쫇캬돖쇋㌥뗄닆헾돠ퟖ뫍㘰?뗄햮컱좨캪늹돤ꎬ닅쓜쳥쿖얷쏋튻쳥뮯뗄붥뷸탔ꆣ짏쿞ꎻ뛾쫇볓잿쇋릫풼횴탐뗄쇩믮탔ꎬ퓊탭돉풱맺퓚튻킩ꆰ쳘쫢쟩뿶ꆱ쿂뎬뇪ꎬ죧퓚맺럀ꆢ뿆퇐ꆢ힢쫍ꎺ랢햹풮훺ꆢ캬뫍탐뚯뗈랽쏦뗄횧돶맽룟뛸틽웰뗄닆ꋙ듋볙짨폐웤뫏샭탔ꎬ퓚쿂컄뗄틲쯘럖컶훐붫쿪쾸쮵쏷ꆣ헾돠ퟖ뎬뇪ꎻ죽쫇냑튪쟳뎬뇪맺볒닆헾돠ퟖ쮮욽믖ꋚ볙짨웤쯻쾵쫽뚼캪헽ꎬ쟒?뫍?튲뻍ퟔ좻캪헽ꎬ뢴떽맦뚨뗄㌥횮쓚뗄웚쿞듓?쓪럅쯉떽?쓪ꎬ뛸††BC†[†BC†−†a†a†(1†.5††+†b†)A†]†튲†뻍†쿔†좻†듳†폚†?ꆣ†††쟒늻믡ퟔ뚯뷸죫돍랣돌탲ꎬ뛸쫇믡닎뾼뛠랽틲쯘ퟷꋛ뫍얷풪쟸ㄳ맺쿠뇈좱짙쇋쾣산ꆢ슬즭놤뫍쮹싥컄쓡퇇ꆣ뻟쳥럖컶ꆣ헢훖뗷헻뢳폨룷맺퓚닆헾헾닟짏룼듳뗄닎뾼컄쿗ꎺ쇩믮탔ꎬ틢캶ퟅ뛔돉풱맺퓚닆헾킭뗷짏뗄튪쟳붵[1]Artis, M., Buti, M. ‘Close-to-Balance or in Surplus’: A뗍ꎬ튲펦룃폐샻폚얷풪쟸맺볒퓚뷰죚럧놩뗄놳뺰Policy-Maker’s Guide to the Implementation of the Stabil-쿂ꎬ컈뚨놾맺뺭볃ꆣ㈰〸쓪ㄱ퓂ꎬ램맺ퟜ춳폫ity and Growth Pact[J]. Journal of Common Market Studies,뗂맺ퟜ샭솪뫏랢뇭쫰쏻컄헂ꎬ뫴폵쇩믮횴탐ꆶ릫Nov 2000, : 563~591.풼ꆷꎬ틔뇣룼뫃뗘펦뛔떱잰뷰죚폫뺭볃캣믺ꆣ쫂[2]Buti, M., Roeger, W., Veld, J. Stabilizing Output and Inflation:쪵짏ꎬ㈰〵쓪탞룄뫳뗄ꆶ릫풼ꆷ훐폐맘폚쇩믮횴Policy Conflicts and Co-operation under a Stability Pact[J].탐쿠맘뇪ힼ뗄쳵뿮ꎬ룷맺췆돶럻뫏ퟔ짭쟩뿶뗄듌벤Journal of Common Market Studies, Dec 2001, :801~828.뺭볃퓶뎤듫쪩늻쫜떽얷쏋돌탲동훍ꆣ[3]Beetsma, R., Uhlig, H. An Analysis of the Stability and Growth놾듎닺짺맣랺펰쿬뗄뷰죚럧놩늻뷶퓚뷰죚쇬폲Pact[J]. The Economic Journal, Oct 1999, 109: 546~571.펰쿬떽얷쏋ꎬ튲퓚쪵쳥뺭볃쇬폲펰쿬떽돉풱맺ꆣ떫[4]Buti, M., Giudice, J. Maastricht’s Fiscal Rules at Ten: An쫇평폚룷맺쯹쫜떽뗄돥믷돌뛈늻춬ꎬ돶첨듌벤탔헾Assessment[J]. Journal of Common Market Studies, 2002,닟듫쪩뗄솦뛈튲폐뫜듳늻춬ꎬ틲뛸ꎬ뿉쓜삩듳룷 : 823~848.맺닆헾헾닟킭뗷뗄닮틬ꆣ뺡맜늻믡떼훂얷풪쟸뗄웆쇑ꎬ떫쫇붫뛔얷풪쟸닺짺퇏뻾뗄뾼퇩ꆣ헢훖뾼퇩†††††††††ꎨ†퓰†죎†뇠†벭†ꎺ†싞†풶몽?ꎩ45
in EnglishAncient China and Young America: 30 Years of Sino-US RelationshipXiao Gang(Research Center for International Issues, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies ) Abstract: The author holds that the mutual policies of foreign affairs are greatly influenced by the develop-ment phases of the two countries. During the 30 years of time, China has been able to smooth out every pitfall bythe US and further the development of the Sino-US relationship. Keywords: Sino-US relationship; pitfall; strategic benefitFunctions of Fiscal Policy of Member States withinthe European Monetary UnionTong Jiadong, Yun Wei(Nankai University) Abstract: The establishment of the European Economic and Monetary Union plays an important role in theprocess of European integration. The monetary policies of member states are nearly integrated with the issuance ofEuro and the operation of EMU. The author contends that on the one hand high integration of monetary policiesimposes a high integration upon fiscal policies; on the other hand there should be certain fiscal autonomy formember states since they are discrepant in development. Keywords: EU economy; monetary union; fiscal policyAn Analysis of the "Export Orientation" of the Chinese EconomyYun Guanping(School of Management, Jinan University) Abstract: This paper discusses the issue of the "export orientation" of the Chinese economy. With adetailed analysis of export dependent ratio and structure, the author holds that China is far from an export-orientedeconomy. The quantatitive increase of China's trade surplus was mainly caused by some foreign-funded anddomestic private-owned enterprises, which was an outcome driven by the micro-benefit brought by China's com-parative advantage. The author believes that China needs to concentrate on expanding its domestic demandwithout lessening export imperatives. The paper concludes that China should reinforce its opening-up policy toefficiently rely upon both domestic and international markets and resources to achieve its sustainable economicdevelopment. Keywords: export orientation; domestic demand; development pattern94
