뺭볃움싛ꆡ2009쓪뗚1웚ECONOMICꆡREVIEWꆡNo11ꆡ2009늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝퇐뺿ퟛ쫶샮캰욽Ξꆡꆡ햪튪:늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝쫇맺볊뺭볃쇬폲뗄붹뗣컊쳢ꆣ놾컄듓샭싛믹뒡ꆢ쪵횤퇐뺿뫍헾닟몬틥죽룶닣쏦,럖컶쇋늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝컊쳢뗄랢햹싶싧뫍쟷쿲ꆣ듓샭싛믹뒡뾴,탂뾪럅뫪맛뺭볃톧뻟폐볡쪵뗄캢맛믹뒡,뛔폚늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뻟폐룼잿뗄뷢쫍솦ꆣ쪵횤퇐뺿뇭쏷늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝쫇튻훖웕뇩쿖쿳,쟒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦돊쿂붵쟷쫆ꆣ믣싊뒫뗝뗄늻췪좫탔뫍쿂붵쟷쫆뛔폚튻맺믵뇒헾닟횴탐뫍믣싊훆뛈톡퓱뗈뻟폐훘튪몬틥ꆣ쯦ퟅ죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯뛔맺쓚뺭볃펰쿬뗄훰늽짮죫,룃컊쳢뛔폚컒맺ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟훆뚨ꆢ죋쏱뇒믣싊훆뛈룄룯뗈튲뻟폐훘튪틢틥ꆣ맘볼듊:늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝ꆡ탂뾪럅뫪맛뺭볃톧ꆡ믵뇒헾닟ꆡ믣싊훆뛈ퟔ2005쓪7퓂21죕훐맺죋쏱틸탐탻늼쪵탐뚢힡튻삺ퟓ믵뇒뗄믣싊헾닟틔살,죋쏱뇒믣싊믺훆룼뢻떯탔,믣싊뇤뚯쟷폚퓶잿,죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯뛔맺쓚뺭볃뗄펰쿬튲룼볓짮죫ꆣ폈웤횵뗃맘힢뗄쫇,퓚죋쏱뇒짽횵맽돌훐,컒맺뺭볃돶쿖쇋튻킩뒫춳뺭볃샭싛쓑틔뷢쫍뗄쿖쿳ꆣ샽죧,쯦ퟅ죋쏱뇒컈늽짽횵,컒맺쎳틗쫕횧쮳닮럇떫쎻폐복짙,랴뛸늻뛏퓶볓늢싅뒴탂룟;폖죧,퓚죋쏱뇒짽횵뛔맺쓚뺭볃랢믓뷴쯵ퟷ폃뗄쟩뿶쿂,컒맺돶쿖쇋죋쏱뇒컈늽짽횵폫춨믵엲헍죕붥짽컂늢듦뗄쎬뛜쿖쿳ꆣ헢킩쿖쿳뗄듦퓚튲훰붥틽랢쇋맺쓚톧쫵뷧뛔늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝컊쳢뗄맘힢뫍쮼뾼ꆣ춨뎣,쏻틥믣싊뇤뚯뛔튻맺쎳틗욷뗄뷸돶뿚볛룱뫍맺쓚컯볛쮮욽뗄펰쿬돌뛈놻돆캪믣싊뒫뗝킧펦(exchangeratepass-througheffect)ꆣꋙ죧맻믣싊뒫뗝쫇늻췪좫뗄,벴믣싊뇤뚯늢쎻폐튻뛔튻뗘벰쪱랴펳떽튻맺뗄뷸돶뿚볛룱뫍맺쓚컯볛쮮욽횮훐,쓇쎴믣싊뇤뚯뗄횧돶뮻믺훆붫믡쫜떽훆훢,튻맺뗄쎳틗쇷솿뫍볛룱뇤뮯뛔믣싊뇤뚯믡뇭쿖뗃늻쏴룐,듓뛸돶쿖짏쫶쎬뛜쿖쿳ꆣ늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝튻횱쫇맺볊뺭볃쇬폲뗄훘튪퇐뺿뿎쳢ꆣ20쫀볍60쓪듺,뛔늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝컊쳢뗄맘힢풴폚뛔튻볛뚨싉뫍릺싲솦욽볛쫇럱돉솢뗄볬퇩,늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝튲놻쫓캪떼훂뛾헟늻돉솢뗄풭틲횮튻ꆣ20쫀볍80쓪듺,퇐뺿헟틔닺튵ퟩ횯샭싛뫍햽싔쎳틗샭싛캪믹뒡,듓캢맛뷇뛈뾼달믣싊뒫뗝폫탐튵쳘헷횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ20쫀볍90쓪듺,쯦ퟅ탂뾪럅뫪맛뺭볃톧뗄랢햹,믣싊뒫뗝컊쳢뗄퇐뺿훰붥틆떽뫪맛닣쏦짏살,믣싊뇤뚯폫춨헍횮볤뗄솪쾵틔벰믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵쿖쿳돉캪퇐뺿훘뗣ꆣ21쫀볍틔살,늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝폫ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟뫍쫊떱믣싊훆뛈횮볤뗄솪쾵퓲돉캪헢튻쇬폲뗄퇐뺿잰퇘ꆣ튻ꆢ늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뗄샭싛믹뒡:듓캢맛믹뒡떽뫪맛쒣탍(튻)믹폚닺튵ퟩ횯뫍햽싔쎳틗샭싛뗄캢맛쫓뷇럖컶20쫀볍80쓪듺훐웚,쏀풪믣싊듳럹뛈늨뚯,떫쫇,쏀맺뷸뿚볛룱늢쎻폐뛔듋ퟶ돶쿠펦뗄랴펦ꆣꋚ헢떼훂늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뗄퇐뺿컄쿗뾪쪼벯훐돶쿖ꆣ폫20쫀볍70쓪듺횮잰믹폚떯탔럖컶램ꆢ컼쫕럖컶램ꆢ쏉듺뛻-뢥삳쏷-뛠뛷늼쪲(M-F-D)쒣탍뫍믵뇒훷틥쒣탍럖컶믣싊뇤뚯폫볛룱쮮욽횮볤뗄맘쾵늻춬,헢킩컄쿗듳Ξ샮캰욽,뛔췢뺭볃쎳틗듳톧뷰죚톧풺,폊헾뇠싫:100029,뗧ퟓ탅쿤:weipingli@ꆣ놾컄쾵맺볒짧믡뿆톧믹뷰훺쿮쒿ꆰ죋쏱뇒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦퇐뺿ꆱ(쿮쒿엺ힼ뫅:07BJY156)뗄뷗뛎탔돉맻ꆣퟷ헟룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋뗄움싛틢볻,떱좻,컄퓰ퟔ뢺ꆣꋙGoldberg뫍Knetter(1997)ퟮ돵붫믣싊뒫뗝뚨틥캪뷸뿚맺폫돶뿚맺횮볤믣싊뇤뚯튻룶냙럖뗣떼훂뷸뿚맺뷸뿚볛룱뗄냙럖뇈뇤뮯ꆣ쿔좻,헢쫇튻룶쿁틥뗄뚨틥,틲캪뷸뿚볛룱뗄뇤뮯튲믡뒫뗝떽짺닺헟볛룱뫍쿻럑헟볛룱훐ꆣ틲듋,쒿잰듳뛠쫽컄쿗뚼닉폃맣틥뗄뚨틥,벴믣싊뒫뗝쫇횸쏻틥믣싊뇤뚯뛔튻맺쎳틗욷뗄뷸돶뿚볛룱뫍맺쓚컯볛쮮욽뗄펰쿬돌뛈ꆣꋚ샽죧,20쫀볍80쓪듺퓧웚,쏀풪뛔뗂맺십뿋듳럹뛈짽횵,떫쫇,뗂맺짺닺뗄룟벶뷎뎵퓚쏀맺뗄쫛볛늻붵랴짽ꆣ맘폚헢뛎쪱웚쓚늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뗄쿪쾸퇐뺿,뿉닎볻Menon(1995)ꆢGoldberg뫍Knetter(1997)뗄컄쿗ퟛ쫶ꆣ140
뛠틔닺튵ퟩ횯뫍햽싔쎳틗샭싛캪믹뒡,퇐뺿믣싊뒫뗝폫탐튵쳘헷(샽죧,쫐뎡뷡릹뫍뺺헹탔훊)횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ퓚퇐뺿뛔쿳짏,쯻쏇훷튪듓캢맛뷇뛈돶랢,퇐뺿쳘뚨맺볒쒳룶탐튵믲닺욷볛룱뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦ꆣ뛸쟒,듓놾훊짏붲,헢킩퇐뺿듳뛠닉폃뻖늿뻹뫢쒣탍,붫믣싊뇤뚯쫓캪췢짺뇤솿,늢볙뚨볛룱뿉틔쇩믮뗷헻ꆣ퓚훚뛠듓캢맛쫓뷇퇐뺿늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뗄컄쿗훐,Dornbusch(1987)뗄퇐뺿평폚잿뗷쇋쫐뎡쫆솦(marketpower)뗄ퟷ폃틔벰맺쓚췢뿉뇈짌욷횮볤뗄늻췪좫뿉쳦듺탔뛸놻죏캪뻟폐뾪뒴탔릱쿗ꆣDornbusch룅삨쇋펰쿬뷸뿚볛룱믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽뗄쯄룶맘볼틲쯘:쫐뎡튻쳥뮯믲쫐뎡럖룮뗄돌뛈;닺욷닮틬돌뛈;탨쟳쟺쿟뗄몯쫽탎쪽;쫐뎡뷡릹틔벰뎧짌뗄햽싔뫏ퟷ돌뛈ꆣ웤훐,쯻훘뗣뾼달쇋닺욷닮틬돌뛈틲쯘뗄펰쿬,췘햹쇋Dixit뫍Stiglitz(1977)쳡돶뗄슢뛏뺺헹쒣탍,퓚슢뛏뺺헹뗄샭싛뿲볜쿂,볙뚨탨쟳떯탔짏짽ꆣ듋쪱,슢뛏헟뗄ퟮ폅닟싔뻍쫇룹뻝믣싊뇤뚯뗷헻돉놾볓돉,헢떼훂믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝킧펦붵뗍ꆣKrugman(1986)붫헢훖평믣싊뇤뚯틽훂뗄돉놾볓돉뗷헻탐캪돆캪틀쫐뚨볛(pricing-to-market,PTM),벴뻟폐쫐뎡쫆솦뗄웳튵뿉틔퓚럖룮뗄쫐뎡짏쪵탐볛룱웧쫓ꆣ늻맽,Dornbusch닉폃뗄뺲첬쒣탍뫶쫓쇋볛룱뗷헻뗄뚯첬틲쯘ꋙ,튲쎻폐뾼싇믣싊듳럹뛈늨뚯떼훂쫐뎡뷡릹랢짺룄뇤뗄뿉쓜탔(벴믣싊뒫뗝뗄훍뫳탔컊쳢)ꆣ틲듋,Krugman(1987)횸돶뛔틀쫐뚨볛탐캪뗄췪쏀뷢쫍탨튪튻룶늻췪좫뺺헹뗄뚯첬쒣탍ꆣFroot뫍Klemperer(1989)뾼달쇋튻룶맺쓚쫐뎡짏솽뷗뛎뗄쮫맑춷뺺헹쒣탍,늢볙뚨웳튵뗚뛾뷗뛎뗄탨쟳좡뻶폚뗚튻뷗뛎뗄쫐뎡럝뛮ꆣ퓚헢룶쒣탍훐,믣싊뇤뚯뗄풤웚믡펰쿬뗚뛾뷗뛎뗄쫐뎡럝뛮볛횵,듓뛸펰쿬뗚튻뷗뛎뗄ퟮ폅볛룱,틲듋,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦붫좡뻶폚놻뻵달떽뗄믣싊뇤뚯쫇퓝쪱뗄뮹쫇폀뻃뗄ꆣBaldwin(1988)ꆢBaldwin뫍Krugman(1989)룸돶뗄훍뫳쒣탍(hysteresismodels)잿뗷쇋릩펦랽뗄뚯첬킧펦,튲쏖늹쇋Dornbusch퇐뺿훐뗄늻ퟣꆣ룃쒣탍볙뚨릫쮾뷸죫맺췢쫐뎡쪱믡닺짺뷏룟뗄돁뗭돉놾,죏캪믣싊뒫뗝킧펦붫춬쪱좡뻶폚믣싊뇤뚯풤볆뗄돖탸쪱볤뫍듳킡ꆣ훍뫳쒣탍뇭쏷믣싊듳럹뛈뇤뚯뿉쓜믡폀뻃룄뇤쫐뎡뷡릹,늢떼훂맀볆뗄쎳틗랽돌(tradeequations)랢짺뷡릹훐뛏ꆣKasa(1992)룸돶쇋쇭췢튻룶퇐뺿릩펦랽뚯첬킧펦뗄쒣탍,쯻뾼달뗄쫇튻룶쏦쇙뗷헻릩룸뗄뛾듎돉놾뗄슢뛏돶뿚짌ꆣFroot뫍Klemperer(1989)횸돶펰쿬믣싊뒫뗝뗄튻룶맘볼틲쯘쫇놻뻵달떽뗄믣싊뇤뚯쫇퓝쪱뗄뮹쫇폀뻃뗄ꆣ퓝쪱뗄믣싊뇤뚯붫놻슢뛏헟뗄샻죳싊쯹컼쫕,헢떼훂믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝킧펦뷏뗍ꆣퟜ횮,짏쫶쒣탍듳뛠쫴폚뻖늿뻹뫢쒣탍,벴훘뗣맘힢볛룱뛔쏻틥믣싊췢짺탔늨뚯뗄랴펦ꆣ뛸쟒,헢킩쒣탍뗄튻룶릲춬쳘헷쫇볙뚨볛룱뿉틔쇩믮뗷헻,벴퓊탭볛룱뛔돉놾뫍탨쟳뇤뚯ퟶ돶벴쪱뗷헻ꆣ틲듋,헽죧Engel(2004)쯹잿뗷뗄,퓚헢킩쒣탍샯,믵뇒헾닟뫍쏻틥볛룱뫁컞폃커횮뗘ꆣGiovannini(1988)췆떼돶퓚볛룱뇘탫쫂잰짨뚨쪱(벴퓚뻶뚨돉놾뫍탨쟳뗄뇤솿놻좷횪횮잰),슢뛏뎧짌쪵탐볛룱웧쫓쪱뗄ퟮ폅뚨볛헾닟ꆣ쯻횸돶떱볛룱놻풤쿈짨뚨쪱,믣싊폫뿉쎳틗짌욷횮볤뗄솪뚯킧펦훷튪좡뻶폚돶뿚욷뗄뇪볛믵뇒ꆣ떱볛룱틔뷸뿚맺믵뇒놻풤쿈짨뚨쪱,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦좡뻶폚쏻틥믣싊뗄쯦믺쳘헷ꆣ뛔쏻틥룕탔뫍뚨볛믵뇒톡퓱뗄훘쫓떼훂탂뾪럅뫪맛뺭볃톧뗄샭싛뿲볜놻틽죫뷸살ꆣ(뛾)믹폚탂뾪럅뫪맛뺭볃톧뗄뫪맛닣쏦럖컶20쫀볍90쓪듺,퓚좫쟲랶캧쓚돶쿖쇋튻룶뫪맛뺭볃횮쏕,벴탭뛠맺볒퓚놾뇒듳럹뛈뇡횵뗄춬쪱,춨헍싊쪼훕놣돖퓚뷏뗍쮮욽ꆣ뛔헢킩놾뇒뇡횵뗄맺볒뛸퇔,헢쯆뫵쫇튻볾뫃쫂쟩,틲캪쯼뇜쏢쇋잱퓚뗄쪵볊쫕죫쯰쪧뫍춨믵엲헍톹솦ꆣ좻뛸,평듋떼훂뗄믣싊뇤뚯폫맺볊쿠뛔볛룱뗷헻믺훆(벴믣싊뇤뚯뗄횧돶뮻킧펦)뗄쪧킧튲틽웰쇋맘힢,틲캪헢튻뗷헻믺훆뛔폚좫쟲쎳틗쪧뫢뗄뗷헻ꆢ맺볊풴럖엤틔벰춨믵엲헍뚯첬뫍믵뇒헾닟쪵쪩뻟폐훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣ믹폚듋,듓20쫀볍90쓪듺뫳웚뾪쪼,늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝퇐뺿훰붥듓캢맛쫓뷇틆떽쇋뫪맛닣쏦ꆣObstfeld뫍Rogoff(1995)뾪뒴탔뗘붫쏻틥볛룱햳탔뫍슢뛏뺺헹죚죫떽뚯첬뗄튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍(볲돆Redux쒣탍)훐,릹훾웰ꆰ탂뾪럅뫪맛뺭볃톧(NOEM)ꆱ뗄샭싛럖컶뿲볜,헢늻뷶캪맺볊뫪맛뺭볃퇐뺿쳡릩쇋탂랶쪽,뛸쟒튲캪늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝퇐뺿쳡릩쇋좫탂뗄쫓뷇ꆣ늻맽,Obstfeld뫍Rogoff(1995)ퟮ돵쳡돶뗄Redux쒣탍볙뚨튻볛뚨싉돉솢,늢쟒짌욷톡퓱틔짺닺헟믵뇒뚨볛(PCP),틲듋,믣싊뒫뗝쫇췪좫뗄뫍벰쪱뗄ꆣꋚ떫쫇,Engel뫍Roger(1996)뗈뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷,뿧맺볤짌욷볛룱뛔튻볛뚨싉뗄욫샫틑뺭뎬풽쇋뗘샭뻠샫믲퓋쫤돉놾쯹쓜뷢쫍뗄랶캧ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,Betts뫍Devereux(1996,2000)뗈뛔Redux쒣탍뷸탐쇋췘햹,붫릤햳탔ꆢ럇쎳틗ꋙDornbusch(1987)쯤좻돐죏믣싊뒫뗝뗄뎤웚킧펦뫍뛌웚킧펦듦퓚쏷쿔닮틬,떫늢캴뛔듋ퟶ돶뷸튻늽첽쳖ꆣꋚ쪵볊짏,헢폫뒫춳뗄뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛쒣탍(죧쏉듺뛻-뢥삳쏷-뛠뛷늼쪲쒣탍)뫍탂뾭뛷쮹훷틥킡탍뾪럅뺭볃쒣탍뗄맛뗣쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ141
욷ꆢ늻춬믵뇒뚨볛ꆢ늻췪좫뷰죚쫐뎡벰늻좷뚨탔뗈캢맛샭싛죚죫쒣탍,캪럖컶뺭볃훷쳥탐캪붨솢쇋볡쪵뗄캢맛믹뒡ꆣ샽죧,쯻쏇뾼싇쇋Krugman(1987)쳡돶뗄틀쫐뚨볛쿖쿳ꆢ쿻럑헟믵뇒뚨볛(LCP)틔벰뛌웚볛룱햳탔컊쳢ꆣ믹폚듋,쯻쏇횸돶믣싊뒫뗝쫇늻췪좫뗄,늢쟒듦퓚뛔튻볛뚨싉뗄욫샫ꆣ뛸쟒,죧맻짌욷췪좫톡퓱틔쿻럑헟믵뇒뚨볛,쓇쎴평폚볛룱햳탔,쏻틥믣싊뇤뚯늻믡뛔쿻럑헟쏦쇙뗄뛌웚볛룱닺짺펰쿬,믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽캪쇣;Engel(2002)튲죏캪퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,평폚캥놳쇋튻볛뚨싉,믣싊뇤뚯뛔볛룱뗷헻믹놾짏늻웰ퟷ폃,틲뛸믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뷼뫵쿻쪧쇋ꆣ쯦뫳뗄퇐뺿컄쿗붫쿻럑헟믵뇒뚨볛(LCP)뗄럖컶뿲볜쓉죫떽룼튻냣뗄쪱볤틀삵(time-dependent)뚨볛쒣탍훐ꆣ샽죧,Calvo(1983)ꆢBergin뫍Feenstra(2001)뗈쪹폃퓊탭욽뮺볛룱뗷헻뗄ꆰ붻듭볛룱짨뚨(staggeredpricesetting)ꆱ랽램살틽죫볛룱햳탔;Bacchetta뫍vanWincoop(1998)ꆢMonacelli(2005)뗈붫햳탔볛룱쿂뗄뚯첬튻냣뻹뫢럖컶뿲볜삩햹떽쯦믺뗄뮷뺳훐ꆣ헢킩쒣탍뗄튻룶훘튪쳘헷쫇ퟮ폅볛룱짨뚨맦퓲뚼뻟폐잰쫓(forward-looking)탐캪쳘헷:뷸뿚볛룱좡뻶폚풤웚쟽뚯뇤솿뗄캴살뇤뚯슷뺶,튲벴풤볆뷸뿚볛룱뗄믣싊뒫뗝쫇훰늽췆뷸뗄,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦좡뻶폚풤웚뗄믣싊뇤뚯돖탸탔ꆣ뻟폐잰쫓탐캪뗄뚨볛닟싔벴뇭쏷믣싊뒫뗝킧펦폫믵뇒헾닟훆뛈횮볤뻟폐쓚짺탔,헢튲캪믣싊뒫뗝폫춨믵엲헍뮷뺳횮볤뗄솪쾵붨솢쇋캢맛믹뒡ꆣTaylor(2000)죏캪믣싊뒫뗝킧펦폫뫪맛뺭볃ힴ뿶횮볤뻟폐쓚짺탔,뗍춨믵엲헍뮷뺳믡떼훂뷏뗍뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦ꆣChoudhri뫍Hakura(2001)붨솢쇋믹폚늻췪좫뺺헹뫍붻듭뫏풼샭싛뗄뚯첬튻냣뻹뫢(DGE)쒣탍ꆣ퓚쒣탍샯,믣싊뒫뗝랴펳쇋믵뇒돥믷뛔떱잰뫍캴살돉놾뗄풤웚펰쿬,뛸컈뚨뗄뗍춨믵엲헍훆뛈믡붵뗍헢훖펰쿬,듓뛸튲붵뗍쇋믣싊뒫뗝킧펦ꆣ횵뗃힢틢뗄쫇,탂뾪럅뫪맛뺭볃톧붨솢퓚볡쪵캢맛믹뒡횮짏뗄럖컶뿲볜,뛔쿖쪵뺭볃컊쳢뻟폐뫜잿뗄뷢쫍쓜솦ꆣ샽죧,PTMꆢLCPꆢ볛룱짨뚨뗄잰쫓탐캪뗈붵뗍쇋믣싊뇤뚯뛔짌욷볛룱뗄뒫뗝킧펦,헢떼훂믣싊뇤뚯뗄횧돶뮻킧펦붵뗍,짵훁쿻쪧ꆣ헢룶뷡싛폐훺폚뷢쫍Obstfeld뫍Rogoff(2000)쳡돶뗄쿖쪵뺭볃훐듦퓚뗄믣싊훐뛏횮쏕(exchangeratedisconnectpuzzle)ꋙꆣ쇭췢,퓚틀쫐뚨볛뗈쳵볾쿂,믣싊뇡횵쓜릻룄짆놾맺뗄쎳틗쳵볾,뛸뛱뮯췢맺뗄쎳틗쳵볾,ꋚ춬퇹,놾맺믵뇒삩헅뗈캴풤웚뗄믵뇒돥믷튲믡춨맽뛱뮯췢맺쎳틗쳵볾살퓶뷸놾맺뢣샻ꆣ틲듋,퓚틀쫐뚨볛뗈쳵볾쿂,믣싊뇡횵뫍믵뇒삩헅뚼뿉쓜돉캪튻훖ꆰ틔쇚캪?ꆱ뗄릤뻟ꆣ듓뛸,헢튲캪맺볊믣싊폫믵뇒헾닟킭뗷쳡릩쇋샭싛틀뻝ꆣ뛾ꆢ늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뗄쪵횤퇐뺿:듓뒫뗝쾵쫽뗄듳킡떽컈뚨탔(튻)믣싊뒫뗝맦쒣뗄쪵횤퇐뺿쒿잰,맺췢폐맘늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뗄쪵횤퇐뺿컄쿗틑뺭쿠떱럡뢻ꆣ듓퇐뺿볛룱뛔쿳뗄뷇뛈뾴,헢킩퇐뺿뿉틔럖돉죽샠:퇐뺿믣싊뇤뚯뛔튻맺쒳룶탐튵뷸돶뿚짌욷볛룱쮮욽뗄펰쿬;뾼달믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸돶뿚짌욷볛룱ퟜ쮮욽뗄펰쿬;볬퇩믣싊뇤뚯뛔맺쓚컯볛쮮욽뗄펰쿬ꆣ듓퇐뺿뷡맻뾴,늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝쫇튻훖웕뇩탔뗄쿖쿳ꆣꋛ떫쫇,늻춬탐튵뫍맺볒뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦튲듦퓚닮틬ꆣ퓚캢맛닣쏦,퓚뛔탐튵뗄뒫뗝킧펦퇐뺿훐,헢훖뿧맺닮틬럇뎣쏷쿔,죧Yang(1997)ꆢCamp뫍Goldberg(2005)뗈;퓚뫪맛닣쏦,믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽뗄맺뇰닮틬튲뷏캪쏷쿔,샽죧Choudhri뗈(2005)랢쿖믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷝뿋CPI뗄뒫뗝쾵쫽횻폐,뛸뛔쮹싥컄쓡퇇CPI뗄뒫뗝쾵쫽퓲뷓뷼폚1ꆣ평폚쫽뻝뷏틗믱좡뗈풭틲,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄퓧웚쪵횤퇐뺿훷튪틔랢듯맺볒캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꆣMenon(1995)춨맽뛔48욪믣싊뒫뗝컄쿗뗄춳볆랢쿖,듳뛠쫽퇐뺿뚼쫇틔쏀맺뫍죕놾뗄쫽뻝뷸탐럖컶ꆣGoldberg뫍Knetter(1997)튲힢틢떽20쫀볍80쓪듺믣싊뒫뗝킧펦퇐뺿틔뛔쏀맺뗄럖컶캪훷ꆣ뷼벸쓪살,헫뛔랢햹훐맺볒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄퇐뺿컄쿗튲듳솿펿쿖ꆣ샽죧,Korhonen뫍Wachtel(2006)퇐뺿쇋뛀솪쳥(CIS)맺볒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄듳킡뫍쯙뛈,쯻쏇랢쿖믣싊뇤뚯뛔뛀솪쳥맺볒뗄볛룱쟷쫆뻟폐쿔훸펰쿬,헢킩맺볒뗄믣싊뒫뗝쯙뛈튲쿠뛔뷏룟,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦퓚12룶퓂쓚췪좫랴펳떽맺쓚볛룱훐ꆣFuentes(2007)틔낢룹춢ꆢ훇샻ꆢ룧싗뇈퇇뫍컚삭맧쯄룶랢햹훐맺볒캪퇐뺿뛔쿳,랢쿖퓚1룶벾뛈쓚,믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝쾵쫽캪75%;퓚튻쓪쓚,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뷓뷼췪좫뒫뗝ꆣ듓쪵횤퇐뺿뷡맻뾴,랢햹훐맺볒뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦춨뎣튪룟폚랢듯맺볒ꆣ헢쫇틲캪ꋙ믣싊훐뛏횮쏕쫇횸퓚뛌웚쓚,벴쪹듳럹뛈뗄믣싊뇤뚯뛔튻맺뺭볃뇤솿튲쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬헢튻쿖쿳ꆣ룃쿖쿳뗄듦퓚튲듙쪹믣싊뻶뚨컊쳢뗄퇐뺿돉캪떱잰맺볊뷰죚쇬폲뗄튻룶죈뗣ꆣꋚ헢쫇틲캪틔췢뇒뇪볛뗄돶뿚짌욷볛룱쫇만뚨뗄,듓뛸뇡횵쳡룟쇋쿠펦뗄틔놾뇒뇪볛뗄돶뿚짌욷볛룱,떫쫇틔놾뇒뇪볛뗄뷸뿚짌욷볛룱좴쎻폐룄뇤ꆣꋛ늻맽,죔폐벫짙쫽퇐뺿랢쿖쒳킩맺볒뫍탐튵뷓뷼폚췪좫믣싊뒫뗝,죧Faruqee(2004)랢쿖18룶퓂횮뫳,믣싊뇤뚯뛔얷풪쟸돶뿚볛룱뫍뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝쾵쫽럖뇰캪뫍1ꆣ142
랢햹훐맺볒퓚짺닺맽돌훐룟뛈틀삵뷸뿚뗄훐볤닺욷(냼삨풭닄쇏뫍놾욷),퓚뷸뿚춶죫욷폫맺쓚춶죫욷횮볤폐쿞쳦듺뗄쟩뿶쿂,믣싊뇤뚯붫뿬쯙랴펳떽맺쓚볛룱쮮욽훐,듓뛸믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뷏룟ꆣ(뛾)믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵뗄쪵횤퇐뺿폫풭틲뷢쫍11믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵뗄쪵횤횤뻝20쫀볍90쓪듺,뺡맜탭뛠맺볒뺭샺쇋놾뇒듳럹뛈뇡횵,떫쫇,헢킩맺볒놣돖쇋컈뚨뗄뗍춨믵엲헍싊ꆣ샽죧,펢맺(1992쓪)ꆢ죰뗤(1992쓪)뫍냍컷(1999쓪)ꋙ퓚헢뛎웚볤쓚뚼뺭샺쇋놾뇒듳럹뛈뇡횵,떫쫇,믣싊뇤뚯뛔쿻럑헟볛룱뗄펰쿬풶풶뗍폚믹폚샺쪷뺭퇩뗄풤웚ꆣꋚ헢훖쿖쿳튲놻돆캪튻룶뫪맛뺭볃횮쏕ꆣ캪쇋뛔헢훖쿖쿳ퟶ돶뺭볃톧틢틥짏뗄뷢쫍,뷼벸쓪살,돽쇋볌탸맘힢믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄맦쒣뫍훍뫳탔틔췢,탭뛠톧헟뾪쪼퇐뺿믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄컈뚨탔,벴쪵횤볬퇩믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쫇럱쟷폚쿂붵ꆣퟮ뷼,듳솿쪵횤퇐뺿랢쿖믣싊뒫뗝킧펦퓚20쫀볍90쓪듺뇭쿖뗃쿠뛔뷏죵,뛸쟒믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱뫍쿻럑헟볛룱뗄뒫뗝킧펦뚼돊쿖돶쿂붵쟷쫆ꆣMcCarthy(2000)ꆢGagnon뫍Ihrig(2004)쫇뷒쪾믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵뗄솽욪퓧웚컄쿗ꆣ잰헟춨맽뛔9룶릤튵뮯맺볒뗄퇐뺿랢쿖,폫1976-1982쓪쿠뇈,1983-1998쓪뗄믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽튪뗍;뫳헟랢쿖듓20쫀볍80쓪듺뾪쪼탭뛠맺볒믣싊뇤뚯뛔쿻럑헟볛룱뗄뒫뗝쾵쫽쟷폚쿂붵,웤훐,뻟폐컈뚨뗄뗍춨믵엲헍싊뗄맺볒믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽튲뷏뗍ꆣ듋췢,Sekine(2006)뛔6룶훷튪릤튵뮯맺볒뗄쫽뻝뷸탐럖컶,랢쿖믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱뫍쿻럑헟볛룱뗄뒫뗝킧펦뚼쿂붵ꆣMarazzi뫍Sheets(2007)횸돶믣싊뇤뚯뛔쏀맺뷸뿚볛룱횸쫽뗄샛볆뒫뗝쾵쫽듓20쫀볍70쓪듺뗄쿂붵떽80쓪듺뗄ꆣFrankel뗈(2005)헒떽쇋랢햹훐맺볒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵뗄횤뻝,뛸쟒튲헽죧쯻쏇쯹횸돶뗄ꆰ훍뫳뗄뫍늻췪좫뗄믣싊뒫뗝틑뺭늻퓙쫇릤튵뮯맺볒뛀폐뗄짝돞욷ꆱꆣ샽죧,Mihaljek뫍Klau(2001)맛달떽ퟔ20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살,탂탋쫐뎡맺볒뗄믣싊뇤뚯뛔춨믵엲헍뗄뒫뗝킧펦쟷폚쿂붵ꆣBarhoumi뫍Jouini(2008)틔8룶랢햹훐맺볒캪퇐뺿뛔쿳,랢쿖뷸뿚볛룱뗄믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽퓚20쫀볍90쓪듺돊쿂붵쟷쫆ꆣCarlosEduardo뗈(2008)랢쿖퓚쪵쪩쇋헦쪵볆뮮룉풤ꋛ횮뫳,냍컷뗄믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽평룟춨헍웚볤뗄뷓뷼100%쿂붵훁20%ꆣ21믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵뗄풭틲뷢쫍퓚뛔믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵풭틲뗄첽뺿훐,룷훖뻟폐헹틩탔뗄뷢쫍탔볙쮵튲펦퓋뛸짺ꆣ웤훐,ퟮ틽죋맘힢뗄(훁짙듓훐퇫틸탐뗄뷇뛈뾴)샭싛벯훐퓚돉릦뗄믵뇒헾닟뫍컈뚨뗄뗍춨헍뮷뺳뛔믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵뗄펰쿬ꆣTaylor(2000)ퟮ퓧퓚뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿(죧춨헍뫍믵뇒헾닟)폫믣싊뒫뗝횮볤붨솢웰솪쾵,쯻죏캪믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄쿂붵쫇뗍춨믵엲헍뮷뺳뗄뷡맻ꆣTaylor뗄맛뗣폫뷼웚뫪맛뺭볃샭싛뗄튻킩탂뷸햹쿠컇뫏,샽죧,뷼살탋웰뗄탂뾪럅뫪맛뺭볃톧붫쏻틥볛룱햳탔뫍슢뛏뺺헹죚죫떽뚯첬뗄튻냣뻹뫢(DGE)쒣탍,캪믣싊뒫뗝폫춨믵엲헍뮷뺳횮볤뗄솪쾵붨솢쇋캢맛믹뒡ꆣ믣싊뒫뗝폫춨믵엲헍뮷뺳횮볤뗄솪쾵튲뗃떽쇋탭뛠쪵횤퇐뺿뗄횧돖ꆣ샽죧,Choudrhi뫍Hakura(2001)ꆢDevereux뫍Yetman(2002)뾼달쇋춨믵엲헍뇤솿퓚뷢쫍룷맺횮볤믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽닮틬랽쏦뗄ퟷ폃,랢쿖헢킩뇤솿뛔폚믣싊뒫뗝쿂붵뻟폐뫜잿뗄뷢쫍솦ꆣBouakez뫍Rebei(2005)퓋폃뚯첬쯦믺튻냣뻹뫢(DSGE)쒣탍뷸탐뾼달,랢쿖믵뇒헾닟뇤뮯(폈웤쫇닉폃춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆)쫇볓쓃듳믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵뗄훷튪풭틲,헢튲뷸튻늽펡횤쇋Taylor(2000)뗄맛뗣ꆣ뛔믣싊뒫뗝쿂붵풭틲뗄퇐뺿쿈잰훷튪벯훐퓚쒳튻샠짌욷뗄뷸뿚볛룱짏ꆣ좻뛸,탭뛠쪵횤퇐뺿닉폃뗄쫇뷸뿚볛룱횸쫽뗈ퟛ뫏탔쫽뻝,뛸럇룟뛈럖즢뗄쫽뻝ꆣ틲듋,ퟮ뷼맘폚믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵뗄튻훖뷢쫍쫇뷸뿚짌욷뗄릹돉쿲쇋뻟폐뗍믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽뗄짌욷ꆣ샽죧,Campa뫍Goldberg(2005)랢쿖뻟폐닮틬탔뗄룟뛋훆돉욷퓚맺볊쎳틗짌욷훐뗄햼뇈풽살풽룟,뛸풭닄쇏ꆢ뗍뛋훆돉욷뗈춬훊닺욷뗄햼뇈좴늻뛏쿂붵ꆣ헢훖닮틬탔닺욷믡떼훂쎳틗뗄늻췪좫뺺헹돌뛈볓짮,틽랢룼룟돌뛈뗄볛룱웧쫓뫍틀쫐뚨볛탐캪,듓뛸틽랢믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵ꆣ뷼쓪살,뺭볃좫쟲뮯뗄죕틦짮죫,틔벰훐맺뫍펡뛈뗈탂탋쫐뎡맺볒뗄탋웰,뛔좫쟲뺭볃뗄뷡릹뫍컈뚨탔닺짺쇋훘튪뗄솬쯸킧펦(knock-oneffects),듙쪹튻킩톧헟듓좫쟲뮯뫍탂탋쫐뎡뺭볃웰뗄뷇뛈살뾼달믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵뗄풭틲ꆣ샽죧,Marazzi뫍Sheets(2007)죏캪훐맺닺욷뺺헹솦뗄쳡짽뫍닄쇏쏜벯탍짌욷퓚뷸뿚럝뛮훐뗄복짙쫇믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽쿂붵뗄풭틲ꆣSlavov(2007)횸돶쯦ퟅ뺭볃좫쟲뮯뗄짮죫,훐맺뫍펡뛈뗈탂탋쫐뎡뺭볃쳥듸살돖탸뗄뻞뛮릩룸돥믷,짌욷쫐뎡뗄맺볊뺺헹풽살풽벤쇒,헢늻뷶붵뗍쇋웳튵뗄뚨볛쓜솦,튲붵ꋙ삨뫅쓚뗄쓪럝뇭쪾룃맺놾뇒뇡횵뫍컈뚨뗄뗍춨믵엲헍싊늢듦뷏캪뗤탍뗄쪱웚ꆣꋚ웤훐,냍컷퓚20쫀볍90쓪듺쒩뗄뺭샺놻쿠맘퇐뺿컄쿗틽폃뗃ퟮ캪욵랱ꆣ퓚냍컷놾뇒뇡횵뗄헢뛎쪱웚쓚,냍컷뗄쿻럑헟볛룱튻횱놣돖컈뚨늻뇤,헢폫틔췹냍컷놾뇒뇡횵웚볤뗄볛룱뇭쿖듳쿠뺶춥ꆣꋛ1994-1998쓪,냍컷뗄쓚햮맦쒣톸쯙퓶뎤,쟒웚쿞럇뎣뛌퓝ꆣ뛔폚헢훖쓚햮ힴ뿶,냍컷닉좡쇋쯹캽뗄헦쪵볆뮮룉풤,훷튪뗄헾닟붨틩쫇쪵쪩룼캪뷴쯵뗄닆헾헾닟,늢뾼싇랢탐폫춨믵엲헍쿠맒릳뗄햮좯ꆣ143
뗍쇋웳튵붫퓶볓뗄돉놾볞룸쿻럑헟뗄쓜솦,듓뛸떼훂믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵ꆣ죽ꆢ늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뗄헾닟몬틥:듓ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟뗄좷뚨떽믣싊훆뛈뗄톡퓱(튻)늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝쿂뗄ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟좷뚨퓚늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝틑뺭돉캪늻헹뗄쫂쪵뗄쟩뿶쿂,웤폫ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟뫍쫊떱믣싊훆뛈횮볤뗄맘쾵틑돉캪룃쇬폲쪱쿂ퟮ잰퇘뫍ퟮ죈쏅뗄퇐뺿뿎쳢ꆣ퓚뾪럅뺭볃훐,췢늿돥믷믡펰쿬맺쓚뺭볃,틲듋믵뇒헾닟뗄죎컱쟷폚뢴퓓뮯ꆣ캪쇋복뮺믣싊뇤뚯돥믷,튻맺믵뇒헾닟컞램놣돖췪좫뛀솢,뇘탫헫뛔믣싊돥믷ퟶ돶쿠펦뗷헻ꆣ샽죧,Ball(1999)횸돶믣싊뇤뚯믡춨맽펰쿬뷸뿚볛룱뷸튻늽펰쿬맺쓚춨믵엲헍,틲듋,훐퇫틸탐탨튪뛔믣싊뇤뚯돥믷ퟶ돶ퟮ폅랴펦ꆣCalvo뫍Reinhart(2002)랢쿖탭뛠탂탋쫐뎡뺭볃쳥퓋폃샻싊ퟷ캪욽뮬믣싊뇤뚯돥믷뗄릤뻟ꆣ틲듋,퓚뾪럅뺭볃쳵볾쿂,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쫇훐퇫틸탐훆뚨폫쪵쪩믵뇒헾닟쪱뇘탫맘힢뗄컊쳢ꆣ죧맻믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뷏룟,쓇쎴퓚좱짙믵뇒헾닟룉풤뗄쳵볾쿂,믣싊돥믷붫랴펳퓚맺쓚볛룱쮮욽짏,틲뛸캪쇋붵뗍믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뫍맺쓚볛룱늨뚯,쪵탐튻뚨돌뛈뗄믵뇒헾닟룉풤쫇뇘튪뗄ꆣ쿠뇈횮쿂,뷏뗍뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦퓲캪튻맺헾닟훆뚨헟쳡릩쇋쪵쪩뛀솢믵뇒헾닟뗄뿕볤폫ퟔ평ꆣ샽죧,Campa뫍Goldberg(2005)횸돶,쏻틥믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뗍뒫뗝킧펦떼훂맺쓚뺭볃뗄횧돶뮻킧펦튲뷏뗍,듓뛸쪹뗃믵뇒헾닟뿉틔폃살뛀솢펦뛔룷훖쪵볊돥믷ꆣ듳솿샭싛폫쪵횤컄쿗죏캪ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟좡뻶폚뺭볃훐뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦ꆣChoudhri뫍Hakura(2006)춨맽뛔71룶맺볒뗄쪵횤퇐뺿랢쿖,믣싊뒫뗝돌뛈폫춨믵엲헍싊횮볤듦퓚뫜잿뗄헽쿠맘맘쾵,쯻쏇죏캪튻맺퓚훆뚨믵뇒헾닟맦퓲쪱펦룃붫헢훖쿠맘맘쾵뾼싇퓚쓚,늢쟒헢훖쿠맘맘쾵떼훂튻맺쓜릻뷏죝틗뗘쪵쿖뗍춨믵엲헍싊뗄믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪ꆣ죧맻믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄좷폫튻맺뗄춨헍쮮욽쏜쟐쿠맘,뛸춨헍쮮욽폖좡뻶폚놾맺뗄믵뇒헾닟,쓇쎴헢뛔뾪럅뺭볃쿂뗄ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟뻟폐훘튪뗄몬틥ꆣ틲듋,Devereux뫍Yetman(2002)듓샭싛뫍쪵횤뗄뷇뛈럖컶쇋믣싊뒫뗝뗄쓚짺탔ꆣ쯻쏇릹붨쇋튻룶뾪럅뺭볃뗄햳탔볛룱쒣탍,웤훐,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦좡뻶폚뷸뿚짌뗄볛룱뗷헻욵싊ꆣ뛔폚룸뚨뗄닋떥돉놾,평폚뷏룟뗄춨믵엲헍싊틢캶ퟅ뷏룟뗄볛룱뗷헻욵싊,틲듋,쯻쏇죏캪믣싊뒫뗝폫놾맺믵뇒헾닟훆뛈횮볤돊쓚짺탔ꆣDevereux뫍Lane(2001)붨솢쇋튻룶탂탋쫐뎡뺭볃뗄튻냣뻹뫢햳탔볛룱쒣탍,퇐뺿늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝쿂뗄ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟ꆣ퓚뛔쒣탍킣ힼ(calibration)뗄맽돌훐,쯻쏇랢쿖믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝돌뛈쫇좷뚨쫊떱믵뇒헾닟맦퓲쪱탨튪뾼싇뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣ퓚믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뷏룟쪱,쯻쏇붨틩컈뚨늻뿉쎳틗샠짌욷뗄볛룱,틲캪만뚨믣싊뫍CPI춨헍쒿뇪맦퓲뚼탨튪틔붵뗍쪵볊닺돶뗄컈뚨탔살믱뗃춨믵엲헍뗄컈뚨탔ꆣ평폚믣싊뒫뗝뗄훍뫳탔,쏻틥컈뚨폫쪵볊컈뚨횮볤뗄뻹뫢쿻쪧,틲듋ퟮ폅뗄믵뇒헾닟맦퓲쫇컈뚨CPI춨헍쒿뇪ꆣ틲듋,쯻쏇횸돶퓚탂탋쫐뎡짏,뗍돌뛈뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쫇춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆돉릦뗄훘튪잰쳡ꆣ(뛾)늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝쿂뗄쫊떱믣싊훆뛈톡퓱뫍췢믣룉풤늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뛔폚쫊떱믣싊훆뛈톡퓱뫍췢믣룉풤튲뻟폐훘튪뗄헾닟몬틥ꆣ샽죧,Obstfeld뫍Rogoff(1995)뗈뢡뚯믣싊훆뗄횧돖헟죏캪,뢡뚯믣싊훆뗄폅뗣퓚폚쓜릻톸쯙룄뇤솽맺횮볤뗄쿠뛔볛룱쮮욽,떫쫇룃믺훆뗄돉솢탨싺ퟣ솽룶쳵볾:톡퓱틔짺닺헟믵뇒뚨볛뗄짌욷뻟폐볛룱햳탔;믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝쫇췪좫뗄ꆣ좻뛸,죧잰쯹쫶,믣싊뒫뗝뻟폐늻췪좫탔뫍훍뫳탔벸뫵쫇튻룶늻헹뗄쫂쪵,짏쫶믺훆돉솢뗄믹놾쳵볾쓑틔싺ퟣꆣ틲듋,늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뗄듦퓚튪쟳죋쏇죏헦짳쫓믣싊뇤뚯퓚맺볊뺭볃뗷뷚훐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣDevereux뫍Engel(2003)뷏퓧뷸탐쇋맘폚믣싊훆뛈톡퓱뫍ퟮ폅췢믣룉풤뗄쿠맘퇐뺿,쯻쏇퓚풤웚킧폃ퟮ듳뮯뗄샭싛뿲볜쿂,럖컶볛룱햳탔뫍늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝쿂뗄믣싊훆뛈ꆣ퇐뺿랢쿖퓚쿻럑헟믵뇒뚨볛(LCP)쿂,퓚쏦쇙뻟쳥뗄쪵볊돥믷쪱,만뚨믣싊훆뛈쫇ퟮ폅톡퓱;뛸떱쪵볊돥믷늻쿔훸틔벰튻맺믵뇒헾닟뷏컈뚨쪱,뢡뚯믣싊훆쫇샭쿫톡퓱ꆣ쿠뇈횮쿂,퓚짺닺헟믵뇒뚨볛(PCP)쿂,튻맺폀풶늻튪톡퓱쟥뷠뢡뚯,벴쪹룃맺뻟폐럇뎣컈뚨뗄믵뇒헾닟,틲캪믣싊뇤뚯믡뛔풤웚쿻럑닺짺횱뷓펰쿬,늢떼훂뢣샻쯰쪧ꆣBetts뫍Devereux(2000)튲횸돶만뚨뫍뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈뗄톡퓱좡뻶폚튻맺뷸돶뿚짌ퟱ톭PCP뮹쫇LCP쯹떼훂뗄믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝킧펦ꆣ죧맻믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝쫇췪좫뗄,쓇쎴퓚쏻틥볛룱햳탔뗄쟩뿶쿂,뢡뚯믣싊훆쫇ퟮ폅톡퓱,틲캪뢡뚯믣싊훆쿂뿉틔랢짺쿠뛔볛룱뗷헻,듓뛸뿉틔춨맽쫊떱뗄믵뇒헾닟살뢴훆떯탔볛룱뗄럖엤믺훆ꆣ쿠랴,퓚믣싊뒫뗝킧펦캪쇣뗄쟩뿶쿂,쏻틥믣싊놣돖만뚨붫쫇ퟮ폅톡퓱,틲캪퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,뢡뚯믣싊컞램쪵쿖ퟮ폅뗄쿠뛔볛룱뗷헻,믲헟쮵늻믡뇈햳탔볛룱(릤)뗷헻룼폐킧ꆣ쯄ꆢ퇐뺿뷡싛벰뛔컒맺뗄웴쪾놾컄춨맽뛔뺭뗤퇐뺿컄쿗뗄짮죫럖컶,쫡샭뫍ퟜ뷡쇋늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뗄샭싛믹뒡ꆢ쪵횤퇐뺿뫍헾닟몬틥,쏷좷쇋늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝샭싛뗄랢햹싶싧뫍랢햹쟷쿲ꆣ듓샭싛믹뒡뾴,탂뾪럅뫪맛뺭볃톧붫쏻틥볛룱햳탔144
뫍슢뛏뺺헹쓉죫떽뚯첬튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍,뻟폐볡쪵뗄캢맛믹뒡,틲뛸,뛔폚늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뻟폐룼잿뗄뷢쫍솦ꆣ믹폚늻춬맺볒뫍늻춬탐튵뗄듳솿쪵횤퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝쫇튻훖웕뇩탔쿖쿳,뛸쟒ퟔ20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦돊쿂붵쟷쫆ꆣ늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뫍믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄쿂붵뻟폐럡뢻뗄헾닟몬틥:튻랽쏦,헢쓜릻펰쿬훐퇫틸탐뛔춨믵엲헍캴살슷뺶뗄풤닢,틲뛸뛔폚믵뇒헾닟뗄횴탐뻟폐훘튪펰쿬;쇭튻랽쏦,헢튲믡떼훂믣싊뗄횧돶뮻킧펦훐뛏,틲뛸뛔폚튻맺뗄쫊떱믣싊훆뛈톡퓱뫍췢믣쫐뎡룉풤뻟폐뷨본ퟷ폃ꆣ쯦ퟅ좫쟲뺭볃튻쳥뮯뗄늽랥볓뿬뫍훐맺뺭볃뗄뿬쯙랢햹,죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯뛔컒맺뺭볃뗄펰쿬죕틦춻돶ꆣꋙ틲듋,ힼ좷뛈솿죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯뛔컒맺뷸뿚볛룱뫍맺쓚볛룱쮮욽뗄뒫뗝킧펦,뛔폚컒맺쪵쪩폐킧뗄믵뇒헾닟뫍톡퓱뫏샭뗄믣싊훆뛈튲뻟폐믽벫틢틥ꆣ퓚컒맺떱잰뗄뺭볃탎쫆쿂,헢킩쪵볹틢틥쳥쿖뗃폈캪쏷쿔,춻돶뇭쿖퓚솽룶랽쏦:튻쫇늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝떼훂춨맽죋쏱뇒짽횵틖훆춨믵엲헍뗄킧맻폐쿞ꆣ퓚잰웚죋쏱뇒짽횵톹솦ꆢ춨믵엲헍틾폇뫍쇷뚯탔맽쪣늢듦뗄쟩탎쿂,컒맺믵뇒헾닟뒦폚솽쓑뗄뺽뺳ꆣ뛸늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝퇐뺿퓲캪훐퇫틸탐ퟟ돶믵뇒헾닟삧뺳쳡릩쇋쮼슷폫틀뻝,샽죧,퓚늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝쳵볾쿂,뷏뗍뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦떼훂죋쏱뇒짽횵뛔뮺뷢춨헍톹솦킧맻쪮럖폐쿞,틲듋,믵뇒떱뻖튻랽쏦펦룃룼뛠뗘틀뾿컈뚨ꆢ뿉탅뫍듓뷴뗄믵뇒헾닟살컈뚨춨믵엲헍뫍춨믵엲헍풤웚;쇭튻랽쏦쳡룟맺쓚릤짌웳튵뗖폹맺췢볛룱돥믷뗄쓜솦뫍컈뚨맺쓚쪳욷볛룱튲쫇컈뚨컒맺춨헍뗄훘튪쫖뛎ꆣ뛾쫇뷏뗍뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦캪컒맺쪵쪩룼뢻떯탔뗄믣싊훆뛈룄룯쳡릩쇋횧돖ꆣ룄룯뾪럅틔살죋쏱뇒믣싊쳥훆벸뺭뇤룯,ꋚ웤훐,쯦ퟅ뷼쓪살컒맺뺭볃돖탸욽컈뷏뿬랢햹,2005쓪7퓂죋쏱뇒믣싊훆뛈뾪쪼평떥튻뚢힡쏀풪뇤캪뚢힡튻삿ퟓ믵뇒,쿲맜샭뢡뚯ꆣ떫쫇,룄룯뫳뗄믣싊뇤뚯럹뛈틀뻉뷏햭(쎿쳬뷶짨뚨%뗄뢡뚯랶캧),쟒훐퇫틸탐뛔췢믣쫐뎡룉풤튲뷏캪욵랱,죋쏱뇒믣싊훆뛈죔좻뻟폐뷸튻늽룄룯뗄뇘튪뫍뿉쓜,뛸쟒캴살룄룯쟷쿲튲쫇좫쟲맘힢뗄붹뗣ꆣ뷏뗍뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦캪컒맺쪵쪩룼뢻떯탔뗄믣싊훆뛈쳡릩쇋횧돖,튲벴퓚믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뷏뗍뗄쟩뿶쿂,훐퇫틸탐뿉틔붫믵뇒헾닟뗄훘탄벯훐폚컈뚨맺쓚컯볛,늻뇘떣탄믣싊뇤뚯뛔맺쓚춨헍쮮욽뗄펰쿬,듓뛸캪쪵쿖룼뢻떯탔뗄믣싊훆뛈뒴퓬쇋쳵볾ꆣ뛸쟒퓚캴살뗄뷸튻늽룄룯훐,늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝퇐뺿뮹뿉틔캪럖컶볓듳믣싊뇤뚯럹뛈뛔맺쓚쎳틗펯폠뫍볛룱쮮욽뗈뗄펰쿬쳡릩샭싛폫쪵횤퇐뺿횧돖,튲뿉틔캪훐퇫틸탐좷뚨ퟮ폅돌뛈뗄췢믣룉풤돌뛈쳡릩샭싛폫쪵횤틀뻝ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗:,,E.,1998.ꆰDoesExchangeRateStabilityIncreaseTradeandCapitalFlows?ꆱFederalReserveBankofNewYorkResearchPaper,,R.,1988.ꆰHysteresisinImportPrices:TheBeachheadEffect.ꆱAmericanEconomicReview,,,,P.,1989.ꆰPersistentTradeEffectsofLargeExchangeRateShocks.ꆱTheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,,,L.,1999.ꆰEfficientRulesforMonetaryPolicy.ꆱInternationalFinance,(1),,,J.,2008.ꆰRevisitingtheDeclineintheExchangeRatePass-through:FurtherEvidencefromDevelopingCountries.ꆱEconomicsBulletin,(20),,,.,2001.ꆰPricing-to-market,StaggeredContracts,andRealExchangeRatePersistence.ꆱJournalofInternationalEconomics,,,,.,1996.ꆰTheExchangeRateinaModelofPricing-to-Market.ꆱEuropeanEconomicReview,,,,.,2000.ꆰExchangeRateDynamicsinaModelofPricing-to-Market.ꆱJournalofInternationalEconomics,,,,N.,2005.ꆰHasExchangeRatePass-throughReallyDeclinedinCanada?ꆱBankofCanadaWorkingPaper,,G.,1983.ꆰStaggeredPricesinaUtilityMaximizingFramework.ꆱJournalofMonetaryEconomics,,,,C.,2000.ꆰFearofFloating.ꆱNBERWorkingPaper,,,.,2005.ꆰExchangeRatePass-throughintoImportPrices.ꆱTheReviewofEconomicsandꋙ헢뿉틔듓솽룶뷇뛈살뫢솿:튻랽쏦,훐맺뷸뿚틀듦뛈늻뛏짏짽,쳞돽볓릤쎳틗뗄뷸뿚햼GDP뗄뇈훘듓1997쓪뗄7%짏짽훁2007쓪뗄18%,웤햼훐맺쿻럑뗄뇈훘룼듓1997쓪뗄11%짏짽훁2007쓪뗄33%,틲뛸,죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯뷏틗춨맽뷸뿚볛룱펰쿬맺쓚컯볛쮮욽ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦,2005쓪7퓂믣룄틔뫳,죋쏱뇒믣싊믺훆룼뢻떯탔,믣싊뇤뚯쟷폚퓶잿,퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯뛔맺쓚볛룱뇤뮯뗄펰쿬튲룼볓쿔훸뫍짮죫ꆣꋚ1994쓪틔잰,컒맺쿈뫳뺭샺쇋만뚨믣싊훆뛈뫍쮫맬믣싊훆뛈ꆣ1994쓪믣싊늢맬틔뫳,컒맺쪵탐틔쫐뎡릩쟳캪믹뒡뗄ꆢ폐맜샭뗄뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈ꆣ1997쓪퇇훞뷰죚캣믺놬랢뫳,훐맺ퟷ캪튻룶뢺퓰죎뗄듳맺,훷뚯듳럹뛈쫕햭쇋죋쏱뇒믣싊뢡뚯쟸볤,탎돉쇋믹놾짏뚢힡쏀풪뗄만뚨믣싊훆뛈ꆣ145
Statistics,,ÊnerwarddaSilvaandMatꢪasVernengo,2008.ꆰTheDeclineoftheExchangeRatePass-throughinBrazil:ExplainingtheꆮFearofFloatingꆯ.ꆱ,.;Faruqee,,.,2005.ꆰExplainingtheExchangeRatePass-throughinDifferentPrices.ꆱJournalofInternationalEconomics,,,,.,2001.ꆰExchangeRatePass-throughtoDomesticPrices:DoestheInflationaryEnvironmentMatter?ꆱIMFWorkingPaper,
