ֻ28जֻ1௹ ֹ ॓ ࿐ 2008୍02ᄅSCIENTIAGEOGRAPHICASINICA Feb.,2008ࠎႿЧָ൝ཌౕ֥ዌܶ੪Ⴓາࠏުࡎ࣮孙根年,于立新(༆ഽٓն࿐੪Ⴓაߌ࿐ჽ,༆,༆ν710062)ᅋေ:ٳ༅ਔཌྷਣ୍бࢠمᄝ੪Ⴓາࠏࡎᇏ֥҂ቀ,ิԛਔࠎႿЧָ൝ཌ֥੪Ⴓາࠏު႕ཙࡎٚمbၛ༆ౕߟѡઔዌ1980~2005୍࠹ඔऌ,ࡹ৫ਔೆ੪Ⴓaݓଽ੪Ⴓaग़ੀሹਈބ੪Ⴓ൬ೆ4่Чָ൝ཌ,ؓ1989୍Кࣘڄѯa1998୍ᇝࣁವາࠏa2003୍SARS໐ၦ۱ؿ൙ࡱ੪ႳາࠏᄝЧ֥ࣟཙႋࣉྛުࡎ࣮,ࢣൕਔౕѡઔዌࣟᄝՑາࠏᇏ෮ᄯӮ֥ग़ੀਈാa੪Ⴓ൬ೆാࠣԊࠌൈࡗі,ູؿ൙ࡱ੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ުࡎ࣮ิ܂ਔྍ֥ંაٚمbܱ Ս:ؿ൙ࡱ;੪Ⴓາࠏ;ުࡎ࣮;ౕѡઔዌᇏٳোݼ:F590 ໓ངѓ്:A ໓ᅣщݼ:1000-0690(2008)01-0107-06 ੪Ⴓြ൞၂۱ߌૹۋ֥Ӂြ,ᆃᇕૹۋྟؓଖთ(ݓࡅࠇֹ)֥੪Ⴓྐྏ,ಠఃᆞӈіགྷᄝၞ൳ଽຓ۲ᇕؿ൙ࡱ֥Ԋࠌބ႕ཙ,Ֆ֥ࣜႏᇇѩؓ੪ႳြؿᅚӁളऍնԊࠌބ႕ཙط֝ᇁఃԛགྷᇗ֥කބ߁,Ӂള෮໌֥੪Ⴓ֥൙ࡱ,ೂ1998୍֥תଲࣁವາࠏa2002୍ႆາࠏ[1]bሺܴ25୍টᇏݓ੪Ⴓြ֥ؿᅚ,࣐ܵ၂ୄϘ֛ॣ҇Еᅉa2003୍ᇏݓ֥SARSາࠏᆰࡼ໗ק٢ᄝหљᇗေֹ໊֥,ߎ൞൳֞؟ఏ֩[3]b20ൗࡀ90୍սၛট,ݓ࠽ؿ൙ࡱَؿؿ൙ࡱ֥Ԋࠌބ႕ཙ,ᄝ੪Ⴓြࠛᆷѓ֥࠹౷ཌള,ၘӮູ႕ཙ੪Ⴓြؿᅚ֥ᇗေၹ,ᆃᇕགྷའ,ഈྙӮࠫ۱หљૼཁ֥ χܡ bఃᇏ,ቋູႄఏ੪Ⴓνಆაॖӻ࿃ؿᅚ࣮֥ۚ؇ܱᇿbԛ֥൞1989୍֥Кࣘڄѯa1998୍֥ᇝࣁ෮໌੪Ⴓາࠏܙ,҂ຓެࣼ൞ٳ༅ؿ൙ࡱವາࠏބ2003୍֥SARSາࠏ,ೂޅሙಒֹಪ്ؓႳग़ളଁҍӁaദྏࡲूࠣ੪Ⴓྛູ֥႕ཙ,ყᆃུؿ൙ࡱؓ੪Ⴓြؿᅚ֥႕ཙ,ᆰࢤܱ༢੪Ⴓҩބܙఃؓ੪Ⴓြؿᅚ෮ջট֥۲ᇕാ,ࢣൕ࿐ؓؿ൙ࡱ֥࣮ࠣ੪Ⴓາࠏܵb༆ౕఃॢࡗٳ҃ބൈࡗэ߄,ູ߄ࢳາࠏaཨԢᄙ,߫ߟѡઔዌ൞ᇏݓݓ࠽੪ႳӁᇏ֥ࣚ,༆ν੪Ⴓگ੪Ⴓࣜႏᇇิ܂॓࿐၇ऌbؓႿ੪Ⴓາࠏ֥૫ཟݓ࠽ݓଽ൧ӆ֥ᇶյӁ,ؓഈඍ3۱ؿ൙ܙ,οൈ؍ॖ߃ٳູো:A.൙భყҩܙ,ࠧࡱ੪ႳາࠏႵሢູׅ֥ࠞཙႋbЧ໓ၛ༆ౕᄝ੪Ⴓາࠏؿളᆭభ,๙ݖোбބଆყҩؿ൙ዌູܶ২,ሢငഈඍ3۱ؿ൙ࡱ੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ཙႋࡱؓ੪Ⴓြ֥າݝࠣ႕ཙ;B.൙ᇏൌൈࡓ॥,ࠧᄝٳ༅,ၛьັᆩᇷa੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ܙ࣮b੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ؿളݖӱᆭᇏ,ൌൈࡓҩѩБۡؿ൙ࡱؓ੪Ⴓြ֥າݝࠣ႕ཙ;C.൙ު߭ܤࡎ,ࠧᄝ1 ੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ܙაཌྷਣ୍ٚم֥҂ቀ੪Ⴓາࠏؿളᆭ,ު၇ऌൌ࠽טҰඔऌؓؿ൙ࡱ֥າݝބ႕ཙࣉྛ֥߭ܤྟࡎ࣮bఃᇏ,ყҩ ࠫ۱ۀ֥ࢸקࡎؓႿາࠏყࣞބԩᇂٳᇗေ,طު႕ཙࡎ෮໌ؿ൙ࡱ,൞ᆷӑԛದૌ֥ၩਘބഠ߶༢ၹඔऌᆇൌॖࠆ֤ሙಒ֥॓࿐ಪᆩb֥ӵ൳ି৯,طಖؿള֥ऎႵ఼ߊྟބᇗն ࡎᆷѓ֥࿊ᄴາݝ֥٤ყ௹ྟ൙ࡱ[2],ೂ2001୍ૅݓ֥ॣՖऎุଽಸটु,੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ܙЇওਔᆰࢤ҇༛ࠌa2004୍֥ႆ؇လݚ;֩෮໌੪Ⴓາࠏ,ാܙބࡗࢤാܙbႮႿ੪Ⴓြ֥Ӂြܱοൗࢸ੪Ⴓቆᆮ(WTO)֥קၬ,൞ᆷ႕ཙ੪Ⴓᆀ৳ྟ఼,༢֥шࢸഉ҂ٳౢ༉,࠹१ֹ֥ࣥ൬۠ರ௹:2006-10-17;ྩרರ௹:2006-12-14ࠎࣁཛଢ:ݓࡅሱಖ॓࿐ࠎࣁ(40271052)ބݓࡅഠ߶॓࿐ࠎࣁ(03JBY088)ሧᇹbቔᆀࡥࢺ:۴୍(1961-),ଳ,༆༆νದ,࢝൱,Ѱൖള֝ഽ,ᇶေՖ൙੪Ⴓܵ࢝࿐ؿbE-mai:lgnsun@
1 08 ֹ ॓ ࿐ 28जҵၳࢠն,ᇁ੪Ⴓາࠏࡗࢤാ֥ܙ۷ૌಪ,ູᆃᇕཌྷਣ୍бࢠ֥ٚمෙಖҠቔࡥ၂bೂ2003୍ᇏݓ֥SARSາࠏ,ؓႿݓೆֆ,ႨႿؿ൙ࡱ੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ܙಏթᄝ3ׄ҂੪Ⴓބݓଽ੪Ⴓটඪ൞၂ӆॢభ֥ᄙ,ಖط,ᄝቀ:൮༵,൞భิࡌഡ҂ؓbࠧಪູೂݔ҂ؿളᆃؓ੪Ⴓြࡗࢤാ֥ܙ࠹ഈཌྷҵऍն,ᇁᄝؓ੪োؿ൙ࡱ,੪Ⴓြ֥ؿᅚሑঃႋაభ୍ӻ,ປႳြ֥າݝܙބ ᄙުҀࣷ ᆟҦഈభު؛,ಆޭ൪ਔ੪Ⴓြ֥ؿᅚݖӱބܥႵ൝,ࡼ੪ႳြႮՎႄؿਔ࿐ඌࢸؓ੪ႳӁြࢲܒܱࠣ৳ྟ֥ᄜ֥ؿᅚुӮ൞ԩႿཌྷؓ๔ᇌ֥ሑ,ᆃᄝݓ࠽੪Ⴓනॉ[4]bгᆀಪູ,ଢభ,੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ܙႋᇶေԩႿॹؿᅚ֥ޡܴМࣟ༯൞հ༂֥;ఃՑ,ಌكࠢᇏᄝ༯ඍᆷѓ֥ҩק: ೆ੪Ⴓग़ੀਈാ;ؓؿ൙ࡱ֥ުིྟࠣາࠏളଁᇛ௹֥ಪ്bࡼ ೆ੪Ⴓᆰࢤࣜ࠶ാ; ݓଽ੪Ⴓग़ੀਈ੪ႳາࠏुӮ൞၂ᇕ ࠧളࠧ ֥ෛࠏ൙ࡱ,ࠧാ; ݓଽ੪Ⴓᆰࢤࣜ࠶ാ; າࠏѯ֥ࠣٓಪູԛ൙ࡱؓ੪Ⴓြ֥႕ཙࣇअཋᄝາࠏ,୍ಖຶࠣॢࡗٳ;҃ າࠏ֥ӻ࿃ൈࡗაཨԢ֥ᇛ௹;ط,ૌܴҳ֥֞նਈൌ൙ಏ൞,Ֆາࠏ֥ Еؿ ੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ࡗࢤࣜ࠶ാbളӮ ֞ ཤࡨ-ࢳԢ ၂Ϯ߶ӻ࿃2~3୍;ֻૌᆭ෮ၛ࿊౼ഈඍ7۱ᆷѓ,൞ԛႿೂ༯,҂ିؓ੪Ⴓາࠏѯ֥ࠣٓຶࠣఃؓཌྷܱӁြ෮Ⴎ: ؓႿն؟ඔݓࡅބֹটඪ,ؿᅚ੪Ⴓ֥ᇶᄯӮ֥ࡗࢤാቓԛሙಒࡎbᄝؿ൙ࡱ੪Ⴓေଢ֥ߎ൞ࠎႿࣜ࠶֥ॉ੮,ೆ੪Ⴓބݓଽ੪Ⴓາࠏࡎൈ,ሹ൞ᆌؓଖݓࠇଖֹࣉྛሹਈٳ൞ఃࣜ࠶൬ೆ֥ᇗေটჷ; ग़ੀਈ֥ാᄝ੪༅,ಌك၂ᇕࡹ৫ᄝॢࡗٳ༅ބӁြܱ৳ྟٳ༅ࠎႳາࠏࡎᇏऎႵหљᇗေ֥ၩၬ,࠻൞ቋᆰࢤaԤഈ֥ሸކࡎbቋૼཁބቋၞҩק֥ᆷѓ,Ⴛ൞ࣉྛఃྛြࡗࢤാܙ֥ҕॉэਈ; ੪Ⴓາࠏѯ֥ࠣٓຶބ2 ࠎႿЧָ൝ཌ֥੪Ⴓາࠏުӻ࿃֥ൈࡗ൞ਆ۱ູࠞᇗေ֥ᆷѓ,ؓႿ߃ٳາࠏࡎၰ֥֩ࠩࠣᇅקཌྷܱ֥ Ҁࣷ ᆟҦऎႵٳᇗေ֥ ෮໌੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ު႕ཙࡎ,൞ᆷᄝؿ൙ၩၬ[5,6]; ႮႿ੪ႳӁြ֥ܱ৳ྟ఼,Ӂြ৽ބࡱؿളᆭު2~3,୍ր੪ႳາࠏӞָཨԢ,ު০Ⴈॢࡗࠢಕֹ֥თҵၳࢠն,ॖ๙ݖׅთ֥טҰൌ࠽࠹ඔऌؓ੪Ⴓາࠏ෮ቓ֥߭ܤྟࡎbᄪࠣ੪ႳӰඔ֥ҩק,ູ۲ֹ੪ႳӁြࡗࢤാ֥ᄝ1998୍ቔᆀᄻิԛ੪ႳЧָ൝ཌ֥ۀ,ؿࡎิ܂ࢠູࡥֆၞྛѩཌྷؓሙಒ֥ٚمbགྷః і ۿିބ ყҩ ۿି,ѩႨ і ཌྷਣ୍ٚم֥҂ቀაۿିٳ༅ਔ6 4ڄѯؓݓೆ੪Ⴓ֥႕ؓႿؿ൙ࡱ੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ࡎ,၂ᇕܼٗҐႨཙ[1,15]bࣜݖ7୍֥ൌ࣮,Ⴍః൞୍࣍ࠫؿࢠູࡥֆ֥ٚمࣼ൞ཌྷਣ୍бࢠم,ࠧၛາࠏؿള൙ࡱ੪Ⴓາࠏ҂؎ᄹ؟,Ⴕсေࡼఃഈശ֞ྍ֥భ၂୍֥౦ঃູࠎሙ,๙ݖཌྷਣ୍֥бࢠࡎؿંۚ؇b൙ࡱؓ੪Ⴓؿᅚ֥႕ཙbೂ1989୍Кࣘڄѯ෮໌੪ႳЧָ൝ཌ,൞ᆷᄝ҂൳ଽຓؿު,ې֩ದҐႨ1989୍ა1988୍ཌྷбࢠ,ٳ༅ྟ൙ࡱ֥Ԋࠌބ႕ཙ༯,ଖݓ(ֹ)੪Ⴓြؿᅚਔڄѯؓݓೆ੪Ⴓြ֥Ԋࠌބ႕ཙ[7];෮ӯགྷ֥฿ಖ൝ٚӱbّႋਔ੪Ⴓြؿᅚ฿1998୍ᇝࣁವາࠏު,ࣾ໓ڄ֩ದႨ1998୍აಖط໗ק֥൝ބൈࡗܿ,ੰ൞੪Ⴓଢֹ֥აఃग़1997୍ཌྷбࢠ,ٳ༅ਔᇝࣁವາࠏؓݓೆჷ൧ӆਆ۱؎૫,ᄝࣟ་ႄa੪Ⴓླaದ१ࠣഠ੪Ⴓ֥႕ཙ[8];2003୍SARSາࠏ,ުᇫ႒ѯ[9]a߶ࣜ࠶ؿᅚܿੰ,ၛࠣॢࡗཌྷቔႨᇏ؟ᇕၹ֥ᄻЧབ[10]aࠡᆒ୍[11]֩ದٳљႨ2003୍ა2002ሸކّႋbࡹ৫੪ႳЧָཌॖၛࢣൕଖݓ(ࠇ୍ֹཌྷбࢠ֥ٚم,ٳ༅ਔSARSາࠏؓݓ੪Ⴓြ)੪ႳြؿᅚܥႵ൝,ࢲކ੪Ⴓ࠹ཌॖቔູؿᅚ֥႕ཙb҂ࣇೂՎ,ݓ࠽Ҫ૫֥ཌྷܱσ২္Ⴕᆷൕ੪Ⴓြྖක֥ і ,ؓؿ൙ࡱ੪Ⴓາྸ؟[12],ೂKhanH֩ದܱႿ2001୍ᇝ໐ၦؓࠏ֥ࣜ࠶႕ཙቓԛקਈࡎbؿ൙ࡱؓ੪Ⴓြྍࡆ੪Ⴓြ֥႕ཙ[13],HuangJHܱႿ2001୍ؿᅚ֥႕ཙ,҂ࣇა൙ࡱ֥ྟᇉaնཬႵ,ܱߎა੪ຖֹᆑު੪Ⴓြ֥߫گ࣮[14],GoodriehܱႿႳြ෮ԩ֥ؿᅚࢨ؍Ⴕܱ,ᆃࡼ੪Ⴓളଁᇛ௹აྛބ੪Ⴓြ֥႕ཙ[15] ൙ࡱؓૅݓ੪,֩Чָ൝ཌ֥ і ۿିࢲކఏট,ູؿ൙൞ҐႨᆃᇕཌྷਣ୍֥бࢠٚمbࡱ੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ު႕ཙࡎิ܂၂۱ંࡏܒb
1௹ ۴୍֩:ࠎႿЧָ൝ཌ֥੪Ⴓາࠏު႕ཙࡎ࣮ 1091ູ҂ӮӉࢨ؍੪Ⴓາࠏ֥Ԋࠌބ႕ཙ֥ުིྟطࣉྛ؟୍֥бࢠ,္թᄝሢمक़ڛ֥ሑঃbఃᇏ,A~Eّ႘ਔ੪Ⴓֹളଁᇛ௹֥5۱ંಌཊbՖ1бࢠॖၛुԛ,ᆺႵᄝ੪Ⴓြؿࢨ؍,ٳљ൞ӮӉ௹aӮඃ௹a๔ᇌ௹aක௹ބཨᅚԩႿཌྷؓ๔ᇌ௹ൈ,ཌྷਣ୍бࢠٚم֥ܙҌཌྷວ௹;ܻ߁౷ཌູ੪Ⴓളଁᇛ௹֥Чָ൝ཌ,ቆؓሙಒ;ط֒ᄝ੪ႳֹԩႿӮӉ௹ބӮඃ௹ൈ,ཌྷކఏটّ႘ՖӮӉ֞ཨວ֥ಆ҆ݖӱ;ջޑ֥ׄൌਣ୍бࢠمႮႿޭ൪ਔ੪Ⴓֹ฿ಖ֥ӮӉ൝,າཌູ੪Ⴓ࠹ཌ,ّ႘ਔؿ൙ࡱ෮ྙӮ χࠏാ֥ࡎཌྷؓࢠཬ;ط֒ᄝ੪ႳֹԩႿක௹ܡ bཌྷਣ୍бࢠم؟ၛາࠏభ၂୍֥ሑঃູࠎބཨວ௹ൈ,ཌྷਣ୍бࢠمႮႿޭ൪ਔ੪Ⴓֹ฿ಖሙ,ࡼາࠏ୍აࠎሙ୍ࣉྛбࢠ,ࠧॉ੮֞າࠏ֥කݖӱ,າࠏാ֥ࡎཌྷؓࢠնb1 ੪Ⴓֹളଁᇛ௹҂ࢨ؍ؿ൙ࡱ֥Ԋࠌࠣ෮ྙӮ֥ χܡ Strikeandconcavevaleoftourismcrisisfromemergenteventineachstageoftourismlifecycle ࠎႿЧָ൝ཌ֥੪Ⴓາࠏު႕ཙܙ,ࣼ൞1978୍ؓຓष٢ၛট,ѡઔዌ࠹ࢤրೆႳग़ᄝؿ൙ࡱ੪Ⴓາࠏؿളᆭު,ٳ༅࠹ཌაЧָຣದՑ,ೆग़ੀਈՖ1980୍ຣದՑཌ֥ҵၳ,࠹ෘ χܡ ෮սі֥੪ႳാࠣఃᄹӉ֞2005୍֥ຣದՑ,୍ࢤրਈᄹӉਔཌྷܱᆷѓbᄝൌ࠽ࡎᇏ෮ླေ࠹ෘ֥ᇶေᆷѓПb2ູ1980~2005୍ೆ੪Ⴓ౷ೂ༯: धؓാਈ:າࠏ௹ࡗ۲୍֥ൌ࠽࠹ᆴཌ,ఃᇏ,ܻ߁౷ཌູ੪ႳЧָ൝ཌ,ջׄྴཌູაЧָ൝ཌٚӱ࠹ෘᆴ֥ொҵ; ཌྷؓാ:ੱग़ੀ࠹ཌ,۱ཟ༯ࡰູ3۱ؿ൙ࡱ෮ྙӮາࠏ௹ࡗ۲୍धؓാਈაЧָ൝ཌٚӱ࠹ෘ֥ χܡ ,ٳљູ1989୍֥Кࣘڄѯa1998ᆴ֥бᆴ; າࠏളଁᇛ௹: χܡ ֥ӻ࿃ൈ୍֥ᇝࣁವາࠏa2003୍֥SARS໐ၦbՖ2ࡗ,ၛ࠹ᆴაଆᆴཌྷؓொҵ 1%ູࢸ; າॖुԛ,25୍টѡઔዌೆ੪Ⴓ֥ӮӉປӮਔభࠏൈࡗі:າࠏ௹ࡗാਈބാੱ֥ൈࡗэ߄bުཌྷ৵֥ਆ۱ളଁᇛ௹,๙ݖଽҬمרᆞາࠏ௹ग़ૌಪ,ູ๙ݖഈඍ4۱ᆷѓ֥࠹ෘॖّ႘ԛ੪Ⴓੀਈ࠹ඔऌ,ҐႨٳ؍֥ S ᄹӉ౷ཌؓఃາࠏ֥ᇶေ႕ཙ,ᇀႿາࠏѯֹࠣٓຶބࡗࢤࣉྛඔᆴଆ,ೆ੪ႳЧָ൝ཌٚӱೂ༯(Ֆാ,ᄵླေ၇ऌॢࡗٳ༅ބ۲ֹ੪ႳӁြ֥ཌྷܱఏ୍၇Ց౼t=1,2,3, b༯):ྟٳ༅(ࠇ੪ႳӰඔҩק)ҌିປӮb3460003400+(1980~1993)1+exp(+)3 ౕዌܶ੪ႳЧָ൝ཌ֥ࡹ৫Qೆ=302000320000+(1994~2005)1+exp(+) ༆ౕߟѡઔዌ1973୍ؿགྷ,ࣜݖ4୍֥(1)ؿडބࡹഡ,1978୍10ᄅᆞൔؓຓष٢bЧ໓ၛཌྷܱ༢ඔr=,ުဒҵc=,җҵۀੱ1980~2005୍࠹ඔऌູ၇ऌ,ࡹ৫ೆ੪ႳaݓP=ଽ੪Ⴓaग़ੀሹਈa੪Ⴓ൬ೆ4่Чָ൝ཌ,ሢင ݓଽ੪ႳЧָ൝ཌఃӮӉݖӱᇏ3Ց੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ཙႋٳ༅,ၛьັݓଽ੪Ⴓग़ੀਈնaᇛ௹ѯྟ఼,൞ѡઔዌᆩᇷ,ູ੪Ⴓາࠏުࡎิ܂σ২b੪Ⴓؿᅚ֥၂۱ᇗေหׄbՖ1980~2005୍ѡઔ ೆ੪ႳЧָ൝ཌዌ࠹ࢤրݓଽႳग़ղ֞ຣದՑ,эႿೆ੪Ⴓ൞ѡઔዌ൧ӆषؿ֥ᇗေଢѓbሱຣದՑ֞210ຣದՑᆭࡗb3ູ25୍ট
1 10 ֹ ॓ ࿐ 28जଽҬمרᆞؿ൙ࡱ႕ཙ௹࠹ඔऌ,ҐႨ ӈඔ+ቅୄݦඔ گކଆࣉྛඔᆴଆ,੪ႳЧָ൝ཌٚӱೂ༯:Qଽ=+580000exp()sin()(2)ཌྷܱ༢ඔr=,ުဒҵc=,җҵۀੱP= ग़ੀሹਈЧָ൝ཌग़ੀሹਈູೆႳग़ࡆݓଽႳग़,൞ّ႘ࣟׄ੪Ⴓြ֥ࠛᇗေᆷѓb3ູ1980~2005୍ѡઔዌग़ੀሹਈ౷ཌ,౷ཌྙູོ N ሳbཨ2 ѡઔዌೆ੪Ⴓളଁᇛ௹FԢ3۱ؿ൙ࡱ֥Ԋࠌބ႕ཙ,ҐႨ ᆰཌ+ቅୄ LifecycleofinboundtouristsofQin sTerra-cottaworriorsݦඔ گކଆࣉྛඔᆴଆ,੪ႳЧָ൝ཌٚӱೂ༯:Yሹ=1720050++650000exp()sin()(3)ཌྷܱ༢ඔr=,ުဒҵc=,җҵۀੱP= ੪Ⴓ൬ೆЧָ൝ཌ੪Ⴓ൬ೆ൞ّ႘ࣟ੪Ⴓြؿᅚඣቋູᇗေ֥ࣜ࠶ᆷѓb൳ग़ੀਈބௐࡎ۬э֥႕ཙ,ఃൈࡗэ߄ܿੰބളଁᇛ௹Ⴕሢ҂֥ྙൔb3ູ1980~2005୍ѡઔዌ੪Ⴓ൬ೆ౷ཌ,ᄝሺᇠູؓඔ֥ቕѓ༢ᇏ,ѡઔዌ੪Ⴓ൬ೆູ S ᄹ3 ѡઔዌݓଽ੪Ⴓളଁᇛ௹ LifecycleofinnertouristsofQin sTerra-cottaworriorsӉ౷ཌ,ఃѯږ؇ჹཬႿग़ੀਈ֥э߄bཨԢ3ѡઔዌݓଽ੪Ⴓ౷ཌ,ܻ߁౷ཌູ੪ႳЧָ۱ؿ൙ࡱ֥Ԋࠌބ႕ཙ,ҐႨ ᆷඔS౷ཌ ؓఃࣉྛඔᆴଆ,੪Ⴓ൬ೆЧָ൝ཌٚӱೂ༯:൝ཌ,ջׄྴཌູग़ੀਈ࠹ཌ,ࡰ෮ᆷູ3۱ؿ൙ࡱԊࠌྙӮ֥ χܡ ,ݓଽग़ੀਈ֥эY=+1+exp(+)߄ࣜݖਔ၂۱ ༵ശ ުࢆ ᄜശ ֥ݖӱb๙ݖ(4)4 ѡઔዌग़ੀሹਈ֥ളଁᇛ௹5 ѡઔዌ੪Ⴓ൬ೆ֥ളଁᇛ௹ lifecycleoftotaltouristsofQin LifecycleoftouristincomeofQin sTerra-cottaworriors
1௹ ۴୍֩:ࠎႿЧָ൝ཌ֥੪Ⴓາࠏު႕ཙࡎ࣮ 111ཌྷܱ༢ඔr=,ުဒҵဒc=,җҵۀ ڄѯؓ੪Ⴓြ֥Ԋࠌބ႕ཙੱP=୍֥Кࣘᆟᇍڄѯ,൞ݓགྷս੪Ⴓြֻ֥၂۱າࠏbႮႿၩ്ྙ֥ҵၳ,༆ٚ۲4 ౕዌܶؓՑ੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ཙႋٳ༅ݓۡࢼं҂ေభສᇏݓ੪Ⴓ,ݓೆ੪Ⴓᄥ൳ऍն֥Ԋࠌބ႕ཙ;ఃൌ,ՎՑڄѯߎႵఃധख़ 1989୍֥Кࣘڄѯa1998୍֥ᇝࣁವ֥ഠ߶ࣜ࠶ჰၹ,ೂࡎഈᅨa๙ࠊளᅮބࣜ࠶ຽາࠏބ2003୍֥SARS൞ᇏݓ੪Ⴓြ֥նߌາ෪֩,ݓଽ੪Ⴓြ္ԛགྷնږ؇֥༯߁,ᆃᄝၛສࠏb၇ऌЧָ൝ཌં࠹ෘѡઔዌࣟؓഈඍ֥࣮ഉໃิࠣbՖі2ॖुԛ,ڄѯؓѡઔ3۱੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ཙႋ,ఃࢲݔਙіೂ༯(і2)bዌೆ੪Ⴓ֥႕ཙ௹3୍,ग़ੀਈാބཌྷؓാі2 ۱ؿ൙ࡱؓѡઔዌ੪Ⴓြؿᅚ֥Ԋࠌބ႕ཙTable2 StrikeandImpactofthreeemergenteventstotourismofQin sTerra-cottaMuseum੪Ⴓາࠏࠣః႕ཙೆ੪Ⴓാݓଽ੪Ⴓാ੪Ⴓ൬ೆാ൙ࡱӫ ႕ཙ୍ս(୍)ാਈ/ຣದ ാੱ/%ാਈ/ຣದ ാੱ/%ാਈ/ຣದാੱ/%1989୍୍ڄѯ1990୍୍୍୍ࣁವາࠏ1998୍୍୍2003୍୍--ੱᇯ୍ࡨཬ,3୍࠹ാႳग़ຣದՑ,नۚௐࡎ۬,ದन੪ႳཨٮՖ42ჭิۚ֞61ჭ,ാੱູ%;ݓଽ੪Ⴓ֥႕ཙ௹2୍,࠹ࣁವາࠏؓѡઔዌ੪Ⴓ൬ೆ႕ཙཌྷؓࢠཬ,ᆰࢤാႳग़ຣದՑ,नാੱູ%bਆᆀௐ൬ೆࡨഒຣჭ,नാੱູ%,າбࢠ,धؓാਈ൞ݓଽ੪ႳնႿೆ੪Ⴓ,ཌྷؓࠏൈࡗіӯᇯ୍༯ࢆ൝bാੱ൞ೆ੪ႳնႿݓଽ੪Ⴓڄѯؓѡ SARS໐ၦ֥Ԋࠌބ႕ཙઔዌ੪Ⴓ൬ೆ֥႕ཙ௹3୍,ௐ൬ೆ࠹ാ2003୍2ᄅܼתؿགྷ֥ ٤ׅ Ѩ২,2003୍ຣჭ,नാੱ%,ᆰ֞1992୍ՎՑ4~7ᄅဆ߄Ӯѯࠣಆݓ֥ ໐ၦ ,൞ྍൗࡀᇏݓາࠏҌۡປಆཨാ,ೆ੪ႳࣉೆЧָ൝ཌሑ੪Ⴓြֻ֥၂۱າࠏbؓႿՎՑ੪Ⴓາࠏ,ݓଽᇙb؟֥࣮अཋᄝ2003୍ଽ,ޓཁಖ൞֮ܙਔᆃ ᇝࣁವາࠏؓ੪Ⴓြ֥Ԋࠌބ႕ཙӆາࠏ֥Ԋࠌބ႕ཙbՖі2ॖुԛ,SARSؓѡ1997୍7ᄅݓЕؿࠊлາࠏ,ޓॹѯࠣರઔዌѰܶೆ੪Ⴓ֥႕ཙ௹2୍,࠹ग़ੀਈЧaݢݓaઔট༆aႆ؇ୄ༆֩ݓ,1998୍֝ᇁാຣದՑ,2003୍ग़ੀཌྷ֥ؓാੱۚղ۲ᇶေࣜ࠶ุࠊлնږ؇ъᆴ,ၿྛބఒြཊೆॢ%;ؓݓଽ੪Ⴓ֥႕ཙ௹2୍,࠹ग़ੀാభ֥ҍༀາࠏ,ंԛ੪Ⴓնږ؇༯ࢆb൳ᇝਈຣದՑ,2003୍ཌྷؓാੱ%b2004ࣁವາࠏ֥႕ཙ,ݓंݓଽ੪ႳՖ1998୍ष୍ѡઔዌൌീ֎ຫ࠱҂ௐ,ದन੪ႳཨٮՖԛགྷ༯߁൝,ؓՎݓଽຓഉБ֡bՖі2ॖ61ჭิۚ֞74ჭ,SARSາࠏؓ੪Ⴓ൬ೆ֥႕ཙुԛ,ᇝࣁವາࠏؓѡઔዌ੪Ⴓြ֥႕ཙ൞ಆٚ௹1,୍੪Ⴓௐ൬ೆാຣჭ,ཌྷ໊ؓ:֥ೆ੪Ⴓ႕ཙ௹3,୍࠹ग़ੀਈാാੱູ%bຣದՑ,ཌྷؓാੱ%,າࠏൈࡗіၛ1998୍ູڂᆴӯᆞٳ҃;ؓݓଽ੪Ⴓ֥႕ཙႿ5 ࢲඏე1998୍,າࠏ႕ཙ௹2୍,࠹ാႳग़ຣ20ൗࡀ90୍սၛট,ݓ࠽ؿ൙ࡱَؿದՑ,नാູ%b1997~1999୍ѡઔዌิള,ၘӮູ႕ཙ੪Ⴓြؿᅚ҂ॖޭ൪֥ၹ,طՎ
1 12 ֹ ॓ ࿐ 28जো੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ٳ༅აࡎ,ؓႿ఼߄੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ܵ[J].ֹ࣮,2002,21(5):608~616.ऎႵٳᇗေၩၬbႮؿ൙ࡱႄఏ֥੪Ⴓາ[6] ᅦេ૾,պܻಆ,Ќې.Ֆ൙ࡱ੪Ⴓ࢘؇ؓSARSࣉྛ ުࠏາࠏܵ ࣮(гซ)[J].੪Ⴓ࿐,ध҂൞ުིྟ֥ෛࠏ൙ࡱ,၂Ϯ߶Ⴕ़,2003,18(4):7~~3[7] ې.1989୍ᇏݓ੪Ⴓြؿᅚࠣ ڄѯ ֥႕ཙ[J].୍֥ളଁᇛ௹,ҐႨཌྷਣ୍бࢠٚمࣉྛՎোາࠏ੪Ⴓט,1990,(5):24~30.ࡎ,၂ٚ૫ॖି֮ܙਔؓ੪Ⴓြؿᅚ֥Ԋࠌބ[8] ࣾ໓ڄ.ܱႿࣁವາࠏؓಀ୍ᇏݓ੪Ⴓြ႕ཙ౦ঃ֥ህีט႕ཙ,ൈ,္مؓ੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ള(Ӯ)-ཨ(ࢳ)ҰБۡ[J].੪Ⴓט,1999,(11):35~38.ݖӱิ܂॓࿐֥ࢳbЧ໓ิԛਔࠎႿЧָ൝[9] ᇫ႒ѯ,۫ಆ഻,֩.SARSؓᇏݓೆ੪Ⴓದඔ႕ཙ֥࣮ཌ֥੪Ⴓາࠏު႕ཙࡎ,ປӮਔ༆ౕѡઔዌؓ[J].ֹ࣮,2003,22(5):551~559.[10]ᄻЧབ,RWCarter.؋௹൙ࡱؓ੪Ⴓ֥႕ཙ:ၛᇏݓSARS3Ց੪Ⴓາࠏ֥ཙႋٳ༅,ࢣൕਔఃग़ੀਈാaາࠏູ২[J].݉ਟ੪Ⴓۚ֩ህ॓࿐࿐Б,2005,16(2):30੪Ⴓ൬ೆാࠣາࠏൈࡗі,ູ੪Ⴓາࠏުࡎ~39.࣮ิ܂ਔᆌؓ੪Ⴓ֥ࣟׄӮۿσ২bᇀႿ,Ⴕܱ[11]ࢶᆒ୍,ᇛپ୍. ٤ׅ ؓ੪Ⴓྛြ֥႕ཙࠣࡹၰ[J].੪Ⴓؿ൙ࡱ੪Ⴓາࠏ֥႕ཙٓຶࠣॢࡗٳ,҃ࠎႿ੪Ⴓט,2003(7):12~14.Ӂြ৽ࠣӁြܱ৳ྟ֥ࡗࢤാܙ,ၛࠣೂޅࡼ[12]SparrowMATourismPlanningModelforHallmarkEvents൙ު֥߭ܤྟࡎሇ߄ູ൙భ֥ყҩࡎ,֩Ⴕ[A]..In:[C].Avebury,1989:250-262.ր۷ູധೆ֥࣮b[13]Khan,:impactonSingaporetourism[J].ҕॉ໓ངAnnalsofTourismResearch,2001,28(1):224-226.:[14]HuangJH,:theTaiwanCase[J].TourismManagement,2002,23[1] ۴୍.ݓೆ੪ႳЧָ൝ཌ֥ࡹ৫ࠣః॓࿐ၩၬ[J].ֹ॓࿐,19982):145-154.,18(5):442~448(.[2] ࣴಆ,षდ,ᅦဇٙ.੪Ⴓາࠏ൙ࡱა੪Ⴓြາࠏܵ[15],2001attacksonAmerica:arecordoftheimmediateimpactsandreactionsintheUAStraveland[J].ದ໓ֹ,2003,19(6):35~[J].TourismManagement,2002,23:573-[3] ޥݓਟ.੪Ⴓາࠏ:োa႕ཙࠏᇅაܵଆ[J].ଲषܵં,2005,8(1):78~83580..[16]۴୍.ݓ6նຓ൧ӆ੪ႳЧָ൝ཌ֥ࡹ৫ࠣఃႋႨ[4] ້ཬν.੪Ⴓြ൳ ٤ׅ ႕ཙ౦ঃٳ༅ࠣࠫ۱ཌྷܱ໙ี֥я༅[J].ފଲն࿐࿐Б,1998,18(4):64~70.[J].੪Ⴓ࿐़,2003,18(4):14~23.[5] Ќې,ྷޣ᪂,պܻಆ. ۡљ༬Ⴓ ֥႕ཙࠣંࢳResearchonPost-EmergentEventTourismCrisisBasedonBackgroundTrendLineinQin sTerra-cottaMuseumSUNGen-Nian,YUL-iXin(CollageofTourismandEnvironmentalScience,ShaanxiNormalUniversity,Xi an,Shaanxi710062)Abstract:Afteranalyzingtheflawsofneighboringyearcomparisonmethodintheevaluationoftourismcrisis, sTerra-cottaMuseumfrom1980to2005,takingthetourismcrisisresponsetothreebreakouteventsinQin sTerracottaWarriorsandHorsesMuseumasanexam-ple,thefourtourismbackgroundtrendlinesofinboundtouris,tdomestictouris, sTerra-cottaMuseum stourismdevelopmentwasanalyzed,,AsianFinanceCrisisin1998,andSARSpestilencein2003,thenthetouristloss,:emergenteven;tTourismCrisis;Postimpactevaluation;Qin sTerra-cottaMuseum
