ꆶ닆쎳뺭볃ꆷ2003쓪뗚8웚Finance&TradeEconomics,,2003컒맺뗄닆헾돠ퟖꆰ맽듳ꆱ싰Ξ?맹쟬췺ꆡ싀뇹퇳ꆡ뫎돋닅ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:ퟔ1998쓪컒맺쪵쪩믽벫닆헾헾닟틔살,닆헾돠ퟖ뫍맺햮맦쒣뚼듳듳퓶볓쇋,틽웰짧믡룷뷧뗄맣랺맘힢ꆣ컒맺뷼쓪살뗄닆헾돠ퟖ맽듳싰?쫇럱믡틽웰닆헾캣믺?놾컄룹뻝헾뢮뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸샭싛,샻폃킭헻랽램,듓뚯첬뷇뛈럖컶컒맺룄룯뾪럅틔살닆헾돠ퟖ뗄뿉돖탸탔ꆣ컒쏇랢쿖,뺡맜20뛠쓪살컒맺튻횱듦퓚닆헾돠ퟖ,뛸쟒뷼쓪살닆헾돠ퟖ퓶볓쇋,떫쎻폐횤뻝뇭쏷컒맺뗄닆헾돠ퟖ맽듳ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇뗄뷡싛쫇,컒맺뗄닆헾돠ퟖ헾닟쫇뿉돖탸뗄ꆣ맘볼듊:닆헾돠ퟖꆡ헾뢮뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸ꆡ킭헻ퟷ헟볲뷩:맹쟬췺,훐맺죋쏱듳톧훐맺닆헾뷰죚헾닟퇐뺿훐탄훷죎ꆢ뷌쫚,100872;싀뇹퇳,훐맺죋쏱듳톧훐맺닆헾뷰죚헾닟퇐뺿훐탄늩쪿짺,100872;뫎돋닅,훐맺죋쏱듳톧훐맺닆헾뷰죚헾닟퇐뺿훐탄늩쪿짺,100872ꆣ훐춼럖샠뫅:ꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1002-8102(2003)08-0037-05튻ꆢ틽퇔뛈볬퇩닆헾돠ퟖ뗄뿉돖탸탔ꆣ듓뚯첬뷇뛈에뛏돠ퟖ맦쒣듳킡뗄뇪ힼ쫇:죧맻헾뢮퓚캴살쓜틔룄룯뾪럅틔살,컒맺닆헾폐솦뗘횧돖쇋뺭늻틽웰뛱탔춨믵엲헍뗄랽램쟥뎥햮컱,뻍쮵쏷볃쳥훆뗄룄룯,듙뷸쇋뺭볃퓶뎤뫍랢햹ꆣ퓚헢돠ퟖ맦쒣늻쯣듳,랴횮퓲쮵쏷닆헾돠ퟖ헾닟듦튻맽돌훐,헾뢮뢶돶뗄듺볛뻍쫇솬쓪닆헾돠퓚ퟅ뫜듳뗄럧쿕ꆣퟖꆣΞ내맺볊뿚뺶볆쯣,1979ꆫ2002쓪,닆헾돠퓚닆헾돠ퟖ횻쓜춨맽랢탐맺햮살쏖늹뗄쟩ퟖ햼GDP뗄뇈싊(돠ퟖ뇈싊)욽뻹듯%ꋙ;뿶쿂,닆헾돠ퟖ맦쒣듳킡컊쳢뗈폚쫇럱쓜싺ퟣ쳘뇰쫇1998쓪컒맺쪵쪩믽벫닆헾헾닟뗄5쓪헾뢮뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸컊쳢,튲뻍쫇쮵,틔쿖횵볆쯣살,욽뻹돠ퟖ뇈싊짏짽떽%ꆣ폚쫇,죋쏇뛔뗄캴살햮컱(햮컱뗄벫쿞쮮욽)쫇럱캪쇣뗄컊폚닆헾돠ퟖ맦쒣틔벰맺햮맦쒣뗄엲헍쫇럱믡틽쳢ꆣ죧맻헾뢮뗄캴살햮컱캪쇣,쮵쏷헾뢮붫살웰닆헾럧쿕늻듦퓚햮컱,닆헾쫕횧싺ퟣ헾뢮뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸,,룸폨쇋벫듳맘힢ꆣ놾컄늻쫇폃맽좥볲떥뗄횸뇪뇈뷏럖컶랽랴횮퓲늻싺ퟣ,헾뢮햮컱ퟮ훕뗃늻떽뎥뮹ꆣ램ꋚ,뛸쫇듓닆헾쫕횧킭헻맘쾵뷇뛈,뚯첬뗘퇐뺿닆헾돠ퟖ맦쒣ꆣ뮻퇔횮,컒쏇늻잿뗷죎뫎Ξ놾컄쫇뷌폽늿죋컄짧믡뿆톧훘뗣퇐뺿믹뗘훘듳쿮쒿ꆰ믽벫닆헾쳘뚨쪱뗣짏뗄돠ퟖ맦쒣,뛸쫇뾼달뿧쪱쟥뎥햮헾닟폫믵뇒헾닟뗄엤뫏ꆱ뿎쳢뗄뷗뛎탔퇐뺿돉맻ꆣ컱쓜솦뗄풼쫸,헢훖풼쫸ퟅ훘폚닆헾횧돶뫍쫕ꋙ내맺볊뇪ힼ볆쯣뗄2000쓪틔잰뗄닆헾돠ퟖ햼GDP뗄뇈싊,닎퓄맹쟬췺ꆢ헔횾퓅훸ꆶ:닆헾톧ꆷ,훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧2002쓪냦,뗚죫뗄뎤웚슷뺶ꆣ뷼쓪랢햹웰살뗄킭헻랽램671-672튳,뢽뇭28ꆣꋚ횸뇪뇈뷏럖컶랽램,튻냣닉폃솽샠횸뇪:튻샠쫇돠ퟖ횸뇪뫍돠(EngleandGranger,1987),쓜쪹컒쏇듓헢튻뷇ퟖ틀듦뛈;쇭튻샠쫇햮컱횸뇪뫍맺햮틀듦뛈ꆣ37' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
죧뫎볬퇩쫇럱싺ퟣ헾뢮뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸,튻+lim(6)킩뺭볃톧볒쳡돶쇋룷훖쪵횤샭싛쒣탍ꆣꋙ놾컄jꇺꇞꛂj+1Bt+j쇮GGt=G훷튪룹뻝맾믹냂뫍삭쪲t+itBt-1,벴GGt쫇헾뢮ퟜ횧(HakkioandRush,돶,냼삨헾뢮릺싲탔횧돶ꆢ틆횧뢶뫍릫햮샻쾢1991)릹붨뗄샭싛쒣탍뷸탐럖컶ꆣ횧뢶ꆣ볙뚨R뫍E캪럇욽컈탲쇐,ꚤR뫍ꚤE뛾ꆢ헾뢮뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸쫇R뫍E뗄튻뷗닮럖,ꚤR뫍ꚤE쫇욽컈탲쇐,R뫍E쫇쯦믺폎ퟟ탲쇐,볇캪:볙뚨헾뢮횻쓜폃랢탐맺햮살쏖늹돠ퟖ,헾뢮풤쯣풼쫸뿉틔킴돉Rt=ꛁ1+Rt-1+ꛅ1t:Et=ꛁ2+Rt-1+ꛅ2tGt+itBt-1=Rt+(Bt-Bt-1)믲헟폚쫇,(6)쪽뿉킴돉:,Gt+(1+i)(tBt-1=Rt+Bt1)쪽훐,Gt듺뇭t웚헾뢮뗄릺싲탔횧돶뫍틆탔GGt=ꛁ+Rt+limjꇺꇞꛂj+1Bt+j+ꛅ(t7)횧돶(늻냼삨샻쾢횧뢶),it듺뇭t웚릫햮샻싊,웤훐ꛁ,=ꇆꇞꛂj-1(ꛁ1-ꛁ2)=\[(1+i)/i](ꛁ1-ꛁ2)j=1Rt듺뇭t웚닆헾쫕죫,Bt듺뇭t웚맺햮폠뛮ꆣꛅt=ꇆꇞꛂj-1(ꛅ1t-ꛅ2)t쇮ꛂtj=1s=1/(1+is),rꛂt=7sꆣs=1죧맻lim평jꇺꇞꛂj+1Bt+j=0,(7)쪽뿉킴돉믘맩랽돌탎(1)쪽뿉뗃:쪽:B0=ꛂ0(R1-G1)+ꛂ0B1Rt=a+bGGt+ꛅ(t8)B1=ꛂ1(R2-G2)+ꛂ1B2ꛅt쫇컳닮쿮,쫇욽컈뗄ꆣ컒쏇퓚뷸탐볆솿럖컶ꆭꆭ훰늽뗼듺쿂좥뿉뗃쪱,쇣볙짨캪b=1ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵,죧맻GG뫍R:쫇럇욽컈탲쇐,쇣볙짨뻍쫇b=1쟒GG뫍RB0=ꇆꇞr(tRt-G)t+limt=1nꇺꇞrnBn(2)쫇킭헻뗄ꆣ룹뻝킭헻샭싛,죧맻GG뫍R떱훐컊쳢맘볼퓚폚폐튻룶욽컈탲쇐,튻룶쫇럇욽컈탲쇐,쓇쎴쯼쏇limnꇺꇞrnBn쿮,죧맻떱nꇺꇞ쪱,limnꇺꇞrnBn=0,쓇쎴,B0헽뫃뗈폚캴살헾뢮쫕횮볤뻍늻듦퓚킭헻맘쾵ꆣ죧맻GG럇욽컈,R횧뷡폠욽컈,틢벴듓뎤웚살뾴,닆헾쫕죫뗄맦쒣늻믡돖(늻냼삨샻쾢횧뢶)뗄쿖횵ꆣlimnꇺꇞrnBn=0탸삩듳,뛸닆헾횧돶뗄맦쒣좴컞쿞삩듳,헾뢮뿏틢캶ퟅ헾뢮ퟮ훕뻟폐햮컱쟥뎥쓜솦,limnꇺꇞrnBn>뚨늻싺ퟣ뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸ꆣ0쮵쏷헾뢮돠ퟖ맦쒣맽듳ꆣ틲듋,컊쳢뗄뫋탄떱GG뫍R캪럇욽컈쪱,GG뫍R듦퓚킭뻍쫇튪뾼달퓚R뫍G캪쯦믺쪱볤탲쇐뗄잰쳡헻맘쾵뻍쫇헾뢮싺ퟣ웤틔쿖횵볆쯣뗄풤쯣풼쫸쿂,벫쿞쮮욽뗄rnBn뗄웚췻횵E[limnꇺꇞrnBn]쫇뗄뇘튪쳵볾ꆣ늻맽,퇏룱살쮵,b=1늢늻쫇헾럱캪쇣ꆣ뢮튪싺ퟣ웤풤쯣풼쫸뗄뇘튪쳵볾ꆣ캪횤쏷헢튻볙뚨쫐뎡샻싊i쫇컈뚨뗄,헢틢캶ퟅ헾뢮뗣,냑Rt뗄맀볆횵a^+b^GGt듺죫(1)쪽늢볙뚨뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸쫇내볛룱횸쫽뷸탐뗷헻뫳뗄쪵볊퓚쯹폐쪱뗣it=i,뿉뗃떽쿂쪽:풤쯣풼쫸,퓲평(1)쪽뿉뗃:Bt=(1-b^)Gt-a^+\[1+(1-b^)i]Bt-1,Gt+(it-i)Bt-1+(1+i)Bt-1=Rt+B(t3)훰늽뗼듺뿉뗃:쇮Et=Gt+(it-i)Bt-1,퓲폐:Bkt+j=ꇆj\[1+(1-b^j-)i]St+k+\[1+(1Ek=0t+(1+i)Bt-1=Rt+B(t4)뛔(4)쪽뷸탐훰늽뗼듺뿉뗃-b^j)i]Bt-1(9):Bt-1=ꇆꇞꛂj+1(Rt+j-Et+)j+limj=0jꇺꇞꛂj+1B(t+j5)ꋙ몺쏜뛻뛙뫍뢥삭캬뛷(HamiltonandFlavin,1986)ꆢ쳘샯몹뫍컖웤훐ꛂ뛻쪲(TrehanandWalsh,1988)틔벰믴룱(Haug,1991)횱뷓헫뛔헾뢮쫕,=1/(1+i)ꆣ평(5)쪽뿉췆돶:횧,샻폃뒫춳뗄킭헻볬퇩,뛸맾믹냂뫍삭쪲(HakkioandRush,1991)ꆢ쯾G쓉뫍쇵(TannerandLiu,1994)틔벰삥쳘쮹(Quintos,1995)퓲퓚쒣탍훐t+itBt-1=Rꛂj+1(t+ꇆꇞꚤRt+j-ꚤEt+)jj=0쪹폃훐뛏쫽뻝,볬퇩랢짺뷡릹탔뇤뮯쪱뗄닆헾돠ퟖ뗄뿉돖탸탔ꆣ38' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
웤훐,Sꆡ뇭1ꆡꆡꆡ룷뺭볃뇤솿쫽뻝뇭(떥캻:틚풪)t=(1-b^)Gt-a^ꆣ쫂쪵짏,(1-b^)Gt-a^=Gt+biB햮쾢횧돶햮컱폠뛮t-1-Rt,헢헽쫇돠ퟖ뗄튻늿럖ꆣ평(9)쪽뿉뗃쓪뛈닆헾쫕죫닆헾횧돶(늻몬햮쾢GDP(냼삨쓚돠ퟖ()췢햮(몬햮쾢냼삨쓚):)췢햮)ꇺꇞꛂj+1Bt+j=limj-k\[1+(1-b^)ijꇺꇞ(ꇆj{]/(1+k=+1j1i)}St+k+{\[1+(1-b^)i]/(1+j+i)}Bt-1)(10)평듋뿉볻,횻튪<b<1,(10)쪽뻍뗈폚쇣ꆣ떫쫇,떱b<1쪱,뺡맜limjꇺꇞꛂj+1Bt+j=0,캴쳹쿖뗄B횵좴쟷폚컞쟮듳,퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,헾뢮쳓뇜뎥햮뗄뚯믺튲뻍믡쯦횮볓듳ꆣ헽죧냍싞(Barro,1979)ꆢ싳뿋뾨슬쒷(McCallum,1984)뫍뿋샗쒬쮹(Kremers,,1989)쯹횸돶뗄,쯦ퟅ햮컱맦쒣뗄훰붥퓶볓,헾뢮쏦쇙뿘훆늻힡햮컱맦쒣뗄럧쿕,뻍폐뿉쓜닉좡춨믵엲헍뗈랽쪽살쟥뎥햮컱ꆣ쯤좻<1튲싺ퟣ퇏룱뗄헾뢮뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸,떫햮컱좴늻쫇쫕솲뗄ꆣ틲듋,헾뢮뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸튲뻍쫇튪퇐뺿솽룶컊쳢:뗚튻-,GG뫍R쫇럱킭헻ꆡꆡ쇏살풴:1986ꆫ2000쓪뗄맺햮폠뛮쫽뻝(1999쓪돽췢,;뗚뛾,b쫇럱뗈폚1ꆣ룃쓪쫽뻝살ퟔIMFꆶ닆헾춳볆쓪본ꆷ)살ퟔ럫붡짭훷뇠ꆶ:릫릲죽ꆢ닆헾돠ퟖ맦쒣뗄쪵횤럖컶햮컱ꆷ,훐맺닆헾뺭볃돶냦짧2000쓪냦,뗚150튳ꆣꆡ뇭2떥캻룹볬퇩(튻)쫽뻝뗄헻샭1.볬퇩닆헾쫕죫ꆢ닆헾횧돶ꆢ닆헾돠ퟖ뗄럖컶닆헾쫕죫뫍닆헾횧돶뗄킭헻맘쾵뿉닉뇤솿볬퇩탎쪽훍뫳웚욽컈탔볬퇩횵폃죽훖탎쪽뗄쫽뻝:(1)쪵볊닆헾쫕죫뫍쪵볊닆ꚤ헾횧돶ꚤꚤ;(2)쪵볊닆헾쫕죫햼GDP뗄뇈싊뫍쪵볊닆헾횧돶햼GDP뗄뇈싊;(3)죋뻹쪵볊닆헾ꚤꚤꚤ쫕죫뫍죋뻹쪵볊닆헾횧돶ꆣ놾컄톡퓱잰솽ퟩ쫽뻝뷸탐럖컶ꆣ룹뻝잰튻뷚쳡돶뗄쒣탍,럖컶돠ꚤ.볬퇩닆헾쫕죫닆헾횧돶닆헾돠ퟖ/GDPퟖ맦쒣뗄잰쳡쳵볾쫇쪵볊샻싊쫇컈뚨뗄뇤솿/GDPꆢ볬퇩탎쪽/GDPꆢ훍뫳웚뗄욽컈탔볬퇩횵,헢뻍업돽쇋볆쯣뿧쪱햮좯볛횵뗄늻컈뚨틲쯘ꆣ뇭GG/ꚤGG/룸돶쇋1978ꆫ2001쓪닆헾쫕횧틔벰쿠맘쫽뻝ꆣꚤꚤGG/ 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
(1)ꆣ룹뻝헾뢮풤쯣풼쫸,죧맻닆헾쫕횧듦퓚1994쓪헽쫇컒맺쪵탐럖쮰훆룄룯뗄쪱웚,헢쮵쏷Rt=a+bGGt+ꛅt뗄맘쾵,떱b=1쪱,헾뢮퇏럖쮰훆룄룯뫳닆헾쫕죫ힴ뿶뾪쪼룄짆,닆헾벯훐룱싺ퟣ뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸ꆣ떱b=1쪱,뛔듋쪽뇤뛈훰붥볓잿ꆣ뛔몬햮쾢뗄닆헾돠ퟖ햼GDP뗄뇈뮻튻쿂뿉뗃:DEF싊뷸탐떥캻룹볬퇩랢쿖,듋탲쇐캪럇욽컈탲쇐(닎t=a+ꛅt,a쫇뎣쾵쫽ꛅ,t쫇컳닮쿮ꆣ듓훐뿉틔랢쿖,떱닆헾돠ퟖ쫇욽컈쪱볤볻춼4)ꆣ틲듋,듓닆헾쫕횧햼GDP뗄맘쾵살뾴,탲쇐쪱,헾뢮퇏룱싺ퟣ뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸,랴횮,헾헾뢮튲늻퇏룱싺ퟣ뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸ꆣ뢮늻퇏룱싺ퟣ뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸;훁폚헾뢮쫇럱캥놳웤뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸,뮹튪맛달닆헾쫕횧쫇럱듦퓚뎤웚킭헻맘쾵ꆣ듓뇭2(1)뿉뾴떽,닆헾돠ퟖ늻쫇욽컈쪱볤탲쇐,틲듋뿉틔뛏뚨,컒맺룄룯뾪럅틔살헾뢮쎻폐퇏룱싺ퟣ웤뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸ꆣ춼3ꆡ1978ꆫ2001쓪닆헾쫕횧햼GDP뗄뇈싊(떥캻:%)춼1ꆡ1978ꆫ2001쓪컒맺닆헾쫕횧뇤뮯쟷쫆(떥캻:틚풪)춼4ꆡ1978ꆫ2001쓪닆헾돠ퟖ햼GDP뗄뇈싊(떥캻:%)쿂쏦뛔닆헾쫕횧맘쾵뷸탐킭헻탔볬퇩ꆣ캪랴펳닆헾쫕횧탲쇐퓚1995쓪뫳뗄뷡릹탔뇤뮯,춼2ꆡ1978ꆫ2001쓪컒맺닆헾돠ퟖ퓚킭헻랽돌훐퓶짨탩쓢뇤솿D,D좡횵죧쿂:뇤뮯쟷쫆(떥캻:틚풪)뇭2(2)룸돶뗄쫇닆헾쫕횧뫍돠ퟖ햼0,떱tΦ1994GDPDt=뇈싊뗄탲쇐욽컈탔볬퇩ꆣ뺭볬퇩,몬햮쾢뗄닆1,떱t>1995헾횧돶햼볬퇩뷡맻볻뇭3ꆣGDP뗄뇈싊ꆢ닆헾쫕죫햼GDP뗄뇈싊뚼쫇뛾뷗헻맽돌I(2),듓춼3훐뿉뾴떽듓뇭3(1)뗄볬퇩뷡맻뾴,룷룶쾵쫽뚼뫜쿔,훸,탩쓢뇤솿뗄틽죫튲뫜폐틢틥ꆣ평폚퇹놾뇈1978ꆫ1995쓪닆헾쫕횧햼GDP뗄뇈싊튻횱뒦폚쿂붵쟷쫆뷏킡,틲듋닉폃Mackinnon랽램뛔닐닮뷸탐욽,1996쓪틔뫳훰붥짏짽,뇭쏷닆헾쫕횧탲쇐퓚1994쓪뫍1995쓪ퟳ폒랢짺뷡릹탔뇤뮯ꆣ컈탔볬퇩ꆣ뺭볬퇩,Rt뫍GGt퓚90%훃탅쮮40' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
욽쿂듦퓚킭헻맘쾵ꆣ닆헾쫕죫폫닆헾횧돶뗄뎤쎻폐캥놳헾뢮뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸ꆣ닆헾쫕횧뗄헢훖웚킭헻맘쾵쫇:킭헻맘쾵,뇭쏷컒맺뗄닆헾돠ퟖ쫇뿉돖탸뗄ꆣꆡ뇭3뛷룱뛻-룱삼뷜킭헻볬퇩1.닆헾쫕죫ꆢ닆헾횧돶킭헻럖컶쯄ꆢ볲튪뷡싛틲뇤솿놾컄듓뚯첬뷇뛈뛔컒맺뎤웚듦퓚뗄닆헾돠ퟖ맦쒣듳킡컊쳢뷸탐쇋킭헻럖컶,훷튪뷡싛폐()()틔쿂쯄뗣ꆣ.룄룯뾪럅틔살,컒맺닆헾쫕횧쯤좻쎻폐()-퇏룱싺ퟣ헾뢮뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸,떫튲쎻폐캥놳헾()뢮뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸,쮵쏷헾뢮쓜릻놣횤늻닉폃뛱탔춨믵엲헍뗈캣몦뺭볃퓋탐뗄랽쪽쟥뎥햮컱ꆣ()()헢뻍뗈폚쮵,컒맺뗄돠ퟖ맦쒣틔벰쿠펦뗄햮컱맦쒣늢늻쓜쮵쫇ꆰ맽듳ꆱꆣMackinnon볬퇩횵.컒맺닆헾쫕횧쯤좻듦퓚ퟅ뎤웚뻹뫢(킭2.닆헾쫕죫/GDPꆢ닆헾횧돶/GDP킭헻럖컶틲뇤솿헻)맘쾵,떫쫇쎿떥캻닆헾횧돶쯹쓜뛔펦뗄닆헾R/GDPGG/GDP쫕죫뷶캪룶떥캻ꆣ헢뇭쏷,듓뎤웚살뾴,컒맺잱퓚ퟅ헾뢮뎥햮쓜솦뗄럧쿕ꆣ()()R/GDP3.퓚춨믵뷴쯵쪱웚,헾뢮늻뿉뇜쏢뗘튪닉()좡닆헾돠ퟖ헾닟,틲듋,1998쓪틔살컒맺쪵쪩GG/-뗄믽벫닆헾헾닟쪹뗃훜웚탔돠ퟖ듳럹뛈퓶볓ꆣ()D쯦ퟅ컒맺뺭볃탎쫆뗄뫃,훜웚탔돠ퟖ붫훰붥()()쿻쪧,떫뷡릹탔돠ퟖ믡틀좻듦퓚ꆣ캪쇋붵뗍컒맺헾뢮뎥햮쓜솦뗄잱퓚럧쿕,탨튪뷸탐닆헾헻뛙,쫊뛈뿘훆뷡릹탔돠ퟖꆣackinnon볬퇩횵ꆡꆡ힢4.닆헾돠ퟖ맦쒣뗄짧믡뺭볃훆풼틲쯘뫜:3뇭쪾90%훃탅쮮욽;33뇭쪾95%훃탅쮮욽ꆣC뇭쪾닐닮볬퇩듸뷘뻘쿮ꆣ뛠ꋙ,떫ퟮ캪훘튪뗄쫇뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쯙뛈,믲뺭R=+볃퓶뎤싊뗄룟뗍ꆣ뺭볃퓶뎤싊풽룟,닆헾돠ퟖb=,쮵쏷닆헾횧돶쎿퓶뎤1룶떥캻,닆헾뗄뿉돖탸탔풽듳ꆣ틲듋,컒맺퓚뷱뫳쿠떱뎤뗄쫕죫퓶뎤룶떥캻,쿔좻b좡횵뷏뗍ꆣ쪱웚쓚,놣돖뷏룟뗄뺭볃퓶뎤싊쫇뇜쏢돠ퟖ떼듓뇭3(2)뗄볬퇩뷡맻살뾴,R/GDP뫍훂뗄닆헾럧쿕뗄훷튪춾뺶ꆣGG/GDP퓚95%훃탅쮮욽쿂듦퓚킭헻맘쾵,b뗄좡횵뷓뷼폚1,쮵쏷듓떥캻GDP뗄닆헾쫕횧훷튪닎뾼컄쿗:뷇뛈살뾴뇈떥뒿듓닆헾쫕횧뷇뛈살뾴,헾뢮싺1.맹쟬췺ꆢ헔횾퓅ꆶ:닆헾톧ꆷ,훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧2002ퟣ웤뿧쪱풤쯣풼쫸돌뛈튪뫃킩ꆣ훷튪풭틲퓚폚쓪냦ꆣ2.럫붡짭훷뇠ꆶ:릫릲햮컱ꆷ,훐맺닆헾뺭볃돶냦짧2000쓪냦ꆣ룄룯뾪럅틔살닆헾돠ퟖ쯤좻퓶뎤톸쯙,떫쫇3.맋ꆶ:쪱볤탲쇐럖컶퓚뺭볃훐뗄펦폃ꆷ,훐맺춳볆돶냦GDPퟜ솿튲퓚톸쯙퓶뎤ꆣ뇈뷏춼4뫍춼2믡짧1994쓪냦ꆣ(쿂뗚53튳)랢쿖,닆헾돠ퟖ햼GDP뇈싊뗄퓶뎤쟷쫆뇈뷏뮺싽,헢쪹뗃떥캻GDP뗄닆헾쫕횧뗄킭헻쾵쫽룼뷓뷼폚1ꆣꋙ듓짧믡뺭볃뷇뛈살뾴,닆헾돠ퟖ뗄맦쒣듳킡훷튪좡뻶폚웟듳ퟜ횮,컒쏇쳡릩뗄뺭퇩횤뻝뇭쏷,룄룯뾪럅틲쯘:벴뺭볃퓶뎤싊뗄쳡룟돌뛈ꆢ믵뇒뮯늿쏅뗄퓶볓돌뛈ꆢ맺쏱뺭볃룷틔살늿쏅쓜솦뗄캴샻폃돌뛈ꆢ돠ퟖ횧돶뗄춶쿮쒿탔훊ꆢ헾뢮ퟔ짭뗄맜샭쓜,컒맺닆헾쫕횧쯤좻쎻폐퇏룱싺ퟣ헾뢮뿧솦틔벰릫훚뗄컾짼뺫짱ꆣ폐맘헢킩틲쯘뗄럖컶,쟫닎퓄맹쟬췺ꆢ헔횾퓅쪱풤쯣풼쫸,떫닆헾쫕횧믹놾짏쫇킭헻뗄,쮵쏷훸ꆶ:닆헾톧ꆷ,훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧2002쓪냦,뗚550ꆫ552튳ꆣ41' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
놾컄훐,룷뗘뗄뷌폽쮮욽닮틬뫜듳,컒쏇뿉틔톡좡쓜좫쏦랴펳룷룶뗘쟸뗄뷌폽쮮욽뗄튻킩횸뇪뛔룷룶뗘쟸뷸탐ퟛ뫏움볛,좻뫳뻝듋좷뚨룷룶뗘랽펦룃믱뗃뗄뷌폽틆횧뢶ꆣ죽ꆢ펦힢틢뗄컊쳢떱좻,컒쏇퓚퓋폃듋랽램쪱,튲펦떱힢틢틔쿂벸룶컊쳢:1.컒쏇퓚헢샯훷튪쫇뷩짜튻훖횵뗃뷨본뗄랽램,놾컄쯹톡좡뗄횸뇪늢늻튻뚨폐듺뇭탔,튲뿉쓜늻좫쏦,볆쯣룷뗘뗄짏뷢뛮믲헟틆횧뢶뛮뗄릫쪽튲늻튻뚨쫊떱,쯹틔늻뿉헕냡ꆣ2.쪹폃듋랽램쪱,튻뚨튪힢틢횸뇪뗄톡좡ꆣ횸뇪튪뿍맛ꆢ릫헽ꆢ좫쏦ꆢ폐듺뇭탔,횸뇪횵튪뿉뗃ꆢힼ좷,쎻폐죋캪뗄닙ퟝꆣ3.컒쏇퓚짨볆볆쯣룷룶뗘랽뗄짏뷢뛮믲헟틆횧뢶뛮쪱,늢쎻폐뾼싇벤샸틲쯘ꆣ죧맻뾼싇떽짏뷢믲헟틆횧뢶뛔뗘랽뗄벤샸ퟷ폃,컒쏇뇘탫뛔컒쏇횸뇪뗄톡퓱믲헟쫇볆쯣릫쪽ퟷ돶쿠펦뗄뗷헻ꆣ4.튪힢틢뛔틆횧뢶뷰뗄쪹폃쟩뿶뷸탐볠뚽,틔럀횹ꆰ햳펬횽킧펦ꆱ뗄랢짺ꆣꆰ햳펬횽킧펦ꆱ쫇횸헢퇹튻훖쿖쿳:훐퇫뛔뗘랽헾뢮틆횧뢶1쏀풪틽웰뗄뗘랽릫릲횧돶뗄퓶뎤튪룟폚떱뗘뻓쏱쫕죫쳡룟1쏀풪쯹퓶볓뗄뛔릫릲럾컱뗄탨쟳ꆣ퇔췢횮틢,훐퇫뛔뗘랽뗄틆횧뢶뿉쓜믡떼훂뗘랽헾뢮릫릲횧돶뗄컞킧싊뗄퓶볓ꆣ헢훖쿖쿳랢짺뗄풭틲쫇평폚뗘랽뻓쏱좱랦훐퇫뛔뗘랽틆횧뢶쫽뛮뗄탅쾢ꆣ틲듋,뿋럾헢훖쿖쿳랢짺뗄냬램횮튻뇣쫇볓잿훐퇫뛔뗘랽틆횧뢶뗄탅쾢엻슶,잿뮯뗘랽뻓쏱뫍짏벶헾뢮뛔뗘랽헾뢮뗄볠뚽ꆣ훷튪닎뾼컄쿗:1.십뾥ꆶ:훐퇫쿲뗘랽뗄닆헾틆횧뢶ꆪꆪꆪ튻룶뻹뗈뮯릫쪽뫍쒣쓢뷡맻ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ1997쓪뗚3웚ꆣ2.쇵킡쏷ꆶ:닆헾틆횧뢶훆뛈퇐뺿ꆷ,훐맺닆헾뺭볃돶냦짧2001쓪냦ꆣ3.뫎쿾좺뇠훸ꆶ:쿖듺춳볆럖컶랽램폫펦폃ꆷ,훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧1998쓪냦ꆣ퓰죎뇠벭:냘뚬탣(짏뷓뗚41튳),,,1988,Pp..헅늨ꆶ:펦폃쯦믺맽돌ꆷ,훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧2001쓪냦ꆣ,,.샮ퟓ쓎ꆢ튶낢훒ꆶ:룟뗈볆솿뺭볃톧ꆷ,쟥뮪듳톧돶냦짧2000쓪냦ꆣ,1989,,,,RobertJ, 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
IsFiscalDeficitsTooLargeinChina?GuoQingwang,LuBingyang,HeChengcai(ChinaFinancialPolicyResearchCenter,RUC,100872) 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
