뗚30뻭ꆡ뗚4웚벼쫵폫뒴탂맜샭ꆡNo142009쓪7퓂TECHNOLOGYANDINNOVATIONMANAGEMENTJuly12009ꆾ맜샭뿆톧ꆿ룟춶싊뗄뢺킧펦럖컶3샮춬쓾(볃쓏듳톧맜샭톧풺,즽뚫볃쓏250022)햪ꆡ튪:춶싊뎤웚퓚룟캻퓋탐믡닺짺뺭볃퓶뎤킧펦뫍뻍튵킧펦쿂붵,풴뮷뺳톹솦퓶듳,닺쓜퇏훘맽쪣,춶폫쿻럑뇈샽쪧뫢뗈훮뛠뢺쏦킧펦,볓듳쇋닺튵뷡릹뗷헻뫍뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽뇤뗄쓑뛈,늻샻폚컒맺뺭볃짧믡뫍뮷뺳뗄뫍킳랢햹,뇘탫뷸탐뗷뿘뫍훎샭ꆣ펦?웺맽뛈틀뾿춶삭뚯뺭볃퓶뎤뗄듖럅탍랢햹랽쪽,ퟟ뒴탂췆뚯탍뗄랢햹뗀슷ꆣ맘볼듊:춶싊;뻍튵킧펦;풴;닺쓜훐춼럖샠뫅:ꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1672-7312(2009)04-0456-03AnalysisofNegativeEffectsofHighInvestmentRatesLITong2ning(SchoolofManagement,JinanUniversity,Jinan250022,China)Abstract:Theover2heightofinvestmentrateshaveresultedincomingdownoftheeffectsoneconomicgrowthandemploy2ment,greaterpressureonresourcesandenvironment,excessofproductioncapacity,unbalanceoftheproportionofinvest2mentandconsumption,whichareharmfulforourcountryꇤsharmoniousdevelopmentofeconomyandsocietyaswellastheenvironment,:investmentratio;economicgrowth;resource;productioncapacityꆡꆡ룄룯뾪럅틔살,컒맺뗄춶맦쒣튻횱뷏듳,춶폃ꆰ퓶솿놾-닺돶뇈ꆱ(IncrementalCapital-Out2싊쪼훕놣돖퓚30%틔짏ꆣ뷼쓪살춶퓶쯙뷸튻늽putRatio,쯵킴캪ICOR)헢튻횸뇪뫢솿뫪맛춶킧볓뿬,춶싊춻웆쇋40%,틑뷓뷼쫀뷧욽뻹춶싊싊ꆣICOR벴놾듦솿뇤뚯폫닺돶퓶솿(ꇷGDP)뗄뗄2놶ꆣ퓚룟춶싊삭뚯쿂,ퟔ2003쓪웰컒맺뗄뇈싊,떱늻뾼싇만뚨닺헛뻉쪱,놾듦솿뗄뇤뚯뗈GDP퓶쯙튲솬탸5쓪뎬맽쇋10%ꆣ떫쫇,룟춶싊폚춶쇷솿(I),틲뛸ICOR=I/ꇷGDPꆣICOR랴펳퓚삭뚯뺭볃룟퓶뎤뗄춬쪱,튲뛔컒맺뺭볃짧믡뫍뮷캪쇋캬돖튻뚨닺돶퓶뎤쯹탨튪뗄춶퓶뎤,벴튻룶뺳뗄킭뗷랢햹듸살훮뛠늻샻뗄펰쿬ꆣ뇘탫돤럖맘힢떥캻뗄GDP퓶솿탨튪뛠짙룶떥캻뗄춶삭뚯,춶싊뎤웚퓚룟캻퓋탐쯹닺짺뗄뢺쏦킧펦ꆣICOR풽듳뇭쪾춶킧싊풽뗍ꆣ퓸뺭퓚1994쓪룹뻝뚫퇇튻킩맺볒퓶뎤킧싊뗍쿂뗄쫂쪵ힼ좷뗘풤퇔쇋뚫1ꆡ룟춶싊뗄퓶뎤킧펦럖컶퇇뷰죚캣믺뗄뺭볃톧볒뿋슳룱싼퓚믘맋뚫퇇뷰죚캣훚쯹훜횪,춶뻟폐삭뚯뺭볃퓶뎤뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ듓믺뗄뷌통쪱횸돶,헢튻캣믺ퟮ짮뿌뗄룹풴퓚폚춶뫪맛뷇뛈뾴,춶싊펦럱쳡룟,맘볼쫇뾴춶뗄퓶뎤뗄뗍킧싊ꆣ랢듯쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒뗄ICOR퓚1ꆫ2횮킧펦룟뗍ꆣ죧맻뷏짙뗄춶쓜삭뚯뺭볃뷏뿬퓶뎤,볤,뛸십살컷퇇뗈맺퓚캣믺놬랢잰쫇5틔짏,벴퓶볓춶뻍쫇폐킧싊뗄;랴횮뻍쫇뗍킧싊뗄ꆣ맺볊짏뎣5풪틔짏뗄춶닅뿉틔퓶볓1풪닺돶ꆣ[1]3쫕룥죕웚:2008-09-13믹뷰쿮쒿:즽뚫쪡짧믡뿆톧맦뮮퇐뺿쿮쒿ꆰ컒맺룟춶싊뗄돉틲ꆢ펰쿬폫뛔닟퇐뺿ꆱ(05BJZ08).ퟷ헟볲뷩:샮춬쓾(1957-),쓐,즽뚫첩낲죋,뢱뷌쫚,훷튪듓쫂벼쫵뺭볃벰맜샭랽쿲뗄퇐뺿.' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚4웚샮춬쓾:룟춶싊뗄뢺킧펦럖컶ꆤ457ꆤ룹뻝쿠맘춳볆쫽뻝,뿉틔볆쯣돶1992쓪틔살컒놾샻폃킧싊뗄쳡룟ꆣ듋췢,춨맽맺볊뇈뷏뿉틔랢쿖,맺뗄쪵볊ICOR(GDP뫍춶뻹내1991쓪뿉뇈볛룱컒맺쒿잰뗄쪵볊ICOR틑뷓뷼첩맺()ꆢ십살컷볆쯣),볻뇭1ꆣ평뇭1뿉틔뾴돶,컒맺뗄ICOR퓚퇇()ꆢ펡쓡()뫍몫맺()퓚뚫퇇뷰죚캣90쓪듺훐웚틔뫳돶쿖쇋짏짽뗄쟷쫆,2006쓪듯떽쇋믺놬랢잰뗄1996쓪뗄쮮욽,뛸헢킩맺볒퓚뚫퇇뷰죚,헢틢캶ퟅ퓶볓풪뗄놾닅쓜퓶볓1풪뗄캣믺훐뗄뺭퇩뷌통뇭쏷,춶싊뗄맽뛈짏짽뫍춶GDP닺돶,쮵쏷냩쯦ퟅ춶싊뗄늻뛏짏짽,춶삭킧싊뗄쿂붵퓌몭ퟅ뷏듳뗄뷰죚럧쿕ꆣ뚯뺭볃퓶뎤뗄킧펦퓚쿂붵,맽룟뗄춶싊늻샻폚뇭1ꆡ1992ꆪ2006쓪컒맺뗄쪵볊퓶솿놾-닺돶뇈(ICOR)쓪럝199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006쪵볊쇏살풴:룹뻝ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2007ꆷ폐맘쫽뻝볆쯣뗃돶2ꆡ룟춶싊뗄뻍튵킧펦럖컶싊뗄돖탸엊짽,춶뗄뻍튵킧펦튲퓚늻뛏붵뗍ꆣ헢뇭쏷떱춶싊짏짽떽뷏룟뗄쮮욽뫳,춶뛔퓶볓뻍돤럖뻍튵쫇헾뢮뫪맛맜샭뗄훘튪쒿뇪ꆣ돤럖뻍튵뗄ퟷ폃틑늻쿔훸ꆣ내헕짺닺몯쫽샭싛,퓚튻뚨뗄튵쒿뇪뗄쪵쿖틀삵폚뺭볃뗄돖탸컈뚨퓶뎤,컒맺쒿벼쫵쮮욽쿂,맽뛈춶믡퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏닺짺놾뛔잰뗄뺭볃퓶뎤훷튪뾿춶삭뚯,틲뛸춶뛔컒맺뗄샍뚯뗄쳦듺킧펦,펰쿬뻍튵룚캻뗄퓶볓ꆣ뛸쟒맽룟뻍튵ힴ뿶폐럇뎣훘튪뗄펰쿬ꆣ뇭2쫇내1991쓪뿉뗄춶싊틢캶ퟅ뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽뫍춾뺶욫쿲폚놾쏜뇈볛룱볆쯣뗄컒맺좫짧믡벰돇헲틚풪만뚨닺춶벯탍,헢뛔죋솦풴럡뢻ꆢ뻍튵톹솦뻞듳뗄컒맺살탂퓶뻍튵죋쫽뗄뇤뚯쟩뿶ꆣ평뇭2뿉횪,쯦ퟅ춶쮵,캴뇘쫇뫏샭뗄랢햹쒣쪽ꆣ뇭2ꆡ1994ꆪ2006컒맺좫짧믡벰돇헲틚풪만뚨닺춶탂퓶뻍튵죋쫽쓪럝1994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006좫짧믡틚풪춶탂퓶뻍튵죋쫽612520685629518455381460300232214141106돇헲틚풪춶탂퓶뻍튵죋쫽465422891807668601511479432350279228213쇏살풴:ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2007ꆷ쿻럑퓶뎤싊캪%ꆣ떫ퟔ2001쓪틔살,쯦ퟅ만3ꆡ룟춶싊뛔풴뗄펰쿬럖컶뚨닺춶(쳘뇰쫇룖쳺ꆢ춭ꆢ싁ꆢ쮮쓠뗈룟뫄쓜탐컒맺뗄풴?뢳늢늻샭쿫,튻킩뛔뺭볃랢햹뻟튵)뗄맽뿬퓶뎤,컒맺뗄쓜풴쿻럑퓶뎤싊훘탂듳럹폐훘튪틢틥뗄햽싔풴뗄죋뻹펵폐솿풶뗍폚쫀뷧욽뛈짏짽,쓜풴샻폃킧싊돶쿖쇋쓦,2001ꆪ2006쓪뻹쮮욽ꆣ쯦ퟅ릤튵뮯뗄짮뮯,풴릩룸뗄톹솦훰붥볤쓪뻹쓜풴쿻럑퓶뎤싊듯떽쇋%ꆣ뿉볻,춶쿔쿖ꆣ뛸뷼쓪살뗄쎤쒿춶뫍뗍쮮욽훘뢴붨짨뷸튻싊뗄맽뛈짏짽뫍춶뷡릹뗄늻뫏샭뷸튻늽볓뻧쇋늽볓뻧쇋풴뗄맽뛈쿻뫄뫍햼폃,쪹풴늻ퟣ뗄쎬쓜풴쿻럑뗄맽뛈퓶뎤ꆣ웤쯻훷튪뿳닺풴뗄놣헏잰뛜룼볓볢죱ꆣ뺰춬퇹늻죝샖맛ꆣ죧쳺뿳즰뷸뿚쫽솿평1995쓪뗄컒맺뗄룻뗘쏦믽풭놾뻍늻ퟣ,뷼쓪살춶뗄룟4115췲뛖퓶볓훁2006쓪뗄32630췲뛖ꆣ뿉틔쮵,쯙퓶뎤폖떼훂붨짨폃뗘뗄뚸좻짏짽,룻뗘쏦믽죱복ꆣ풴뷴좱틑뺭릹돉컒맺뺭볃짧믡랢햹뗄ꆰ펲풼쫸ꆱ,룹뻝맺췁풴늿뗄쇏,1996ꆪ2001쓪볤욽뻹쎿쓪듖럅탍뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽쫇퓬돉풴릩쟳뷴헅뗄룹놾풭복짙룻뗘720췲쒶;2002쓪틔살,쯦ퟅ춶싊뗄늻틲횮튻,뛸맽룟뗄춶싊뷸튻늽볓뻧쇋풴쿻뫄,퓶뛏엊짽,룻뗘햼폃튲뷸튻늽볓쯙,2002ꆪ2006쓪볤듳쇋뮷뺳톹솦,쪹뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽룼볓듖럅ꆣ욽뻹쎿쓪복짙룻뗘1740췲쒶[2]ꆣ폐맘늿쏅풤볆,5ꆫ10쓪뫳,튻킩뗘쟸뗄돇쫐붨짨폃뗘붫쏦쇙컞뗘뿉4ꆡ룟춶싊뗄릩룸킧펦럖컶폃뗄뺽뿶[3]ꆣ만뚨닺춶늻떫뻟폐뛌웚뗄탨쟳킧펦,뮹뻟쓜풴릩펦뗄탎쫆튲쪮럖퇏뻾,1990쓪컒맺뗄쓜폐훐뎤웚뗄릩룸킧펦,벴퓶볓닺쓜ꆣ룟춶싊뗄쇭풴쿻럑ퟜ솿캪틚뛖뇪ힼ쎺,떽2006쓪틑짽훁튻틾폇쫇떼훂늿럖탐튵돶쿖짺닺쓜솦맽쪣ꆣ컒맺ퟔ틚뛖뇪ힼ쎺ꆣ컒맺뗄쓜풴샻폃킧싊퓚90쓪2002쓪춶듳럹뛈퓶뎤뫳,떽2003쓪쿂냫쓪,룖듺훐뫳웚퓸폐쿔훸룄짆,1991ꆪ2000쓪볤쓪뻹쓜풴쳺ꆢ쮮쓠ꆢ뗧뷢싁죽룶탐튵틑돶쿖닺쓜퓶뎤맽뿬뗄첬' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆤ458ꆤꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ벼쫵폫뒴탂맜샭ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚30뻭쫆,맺볒랢룄캯돶첨쇋헫뛔짏쫶죽룶탐튵뗄뫪맛뗷싊돖탸맽룟뛸쿻럑싊돖탸욫뗍뗄뫳맻쫇춶폫쿻뿘헾닟ꆣ떫쫇,떽쇋2005쓪쿂냫쓪,룹뻝맺볒랢룄럑횮볤톭뮷늻뎩,룟춶좱랦쿻럑뗄횧돖,뺭볃뗄톭캯뗄볠닢,맺쓚닺쓜맽쪣컊쳢춻돶믲잱퓚닺쓜맽쪣뮷늻퓙틔싺ퟣ죋뗄탨쟳캪놾,뛸쫇탎돉쇋ꆰ춶뗄탐튵틑듯떽쇋쪮튻룶[4]ꆣ쫂쪵짏,컒맺돶쿖닺쓜ꆪꆪꆪ춶욷탨쟳ꆪꆪꆪ탂튻싖춶ꆱ뗄럢뇕톭맽쪣뗄탐튵풶늻횹쪮튻룶,횻늻맽맺볒랢룄캯볠닢뮷[6]ꆣ헢퇹튻훖뺭볃퓋탐쒣쪽듓뇭쏦짏뾴웰살쯆뗄뛠쫴폚춶듳ꆢ훜웚뎤뗄짺닺쇏탐튵,튻떩돶쿖뫵뫜죈믰,떫돽쇋탩퓶튻킩맽쪣닺쓜뫍GDP쫽ퟖ닺쓜맽쪣붫뫜쓑뷸탐뗷헻ꆣ췢,뛔쳡룟죋쏱짺믮훊솿뗄ퟷ폃폐쿞,튲늻뿉쓜뎤웚닺쓜맽쪣붫믡듸살훮뛠늻솼뫳맻ꆣ튻쫇닺쓜맽돖탸쿂좥ꆣ튻떩쒳튻뮷뷚돶쿖컊쳢,뺭볃뗄욽뫢놻쪣틢캶ퟅ듳솿춶탎돉뗄만뚨닺컞램랢믓ퟷ폃,듲웆,뺭볃퓶뎤뻍믡쿝죫춣뛙ꆣ쯹틔,룟춶싊떼훂퓬돉뷰뫍풴뗄퇏훘샋럑뫍컞킧햼폃ꆣ뛾쫇떼훂춶폫쿻럑뗄뇈샽퇏훘쪧뫢,펰쿬훐뎤웚뫪맛뺭볃쫐뎡릩쟳쪧뫢ꆣ쯦ퟅ뷼벸쓪듳솿춶탎돉뗄닺쓜훰퓶뎤뗄컈뚨탔ꆣ붥뷸죫춶닺웚,짺닺쓜솦뫍ퟜ릩룸붫뷸튻늽삩듳,뛸돽쇋짏쫶벸룶랽쏦췢,룟춶싊뮹삭듳쇋돇쿧ퟜ탨쟳퓚뛌웚쓚좴컞램듳럹퓶볓,튻킩탐튵뗄랢햹닮뻠뫍뻓쏱뗄쫕죫닮뻠ꆢ퓶볓쇋닺튵뷡릹뗷헻뫍뺭붫쏦쇙폐킧탨쟳늻ퟣ뗄훆풼,탐튵킧틦헻쳥짏붫쟷볃퓶뎤랽쪽뇤뗄쓑뛈[7-8]ꆣ폚쿂뮬ꆣ죽쫇퓶볓뷰죚럧쿕ꆣ닺쓜맽쪣탐튵뗄춶폐쿠떱늿럖살ퟔ틸탐듻뿮ꆣ헢킩닺쓜맽쪣탐튵죧늻6ꆡ뷡ꆡ폯벰쪱뷸탐뗷헻,뻍믡틲펯샻듯늻떽풤웚뛸랢짺뎥햮틔짏럖컶뇭쏷,듓뎤웚뷇뛈살뾴,춶싊맽룟뗄삧쓑,쪹틸탐뗄듴헋뮵헋짏짽,퓶볓뷰죚럧쿕ꆣ쯄쫇뇗뛋뫜뛠,늻샻폚뺭볃짧믡뫍뮷뺳뗄뫍킳랢햹ꆣ뇘떼훂돶뿚벤퓶,볓뻧쎳틗쒦닁ꆣ맺쓚닺쓜듳솿맽쪣,탫춨맽뗷뿘뫍훎샭,?웺맽뛈틀뾿춶삭뚯퓶뎤뗄뇘좻떽몣췢톰헒쫐뎡,떼훂돶뿚벤퓶,틽랢훮뛠쎳틗듖럅탍랢햹랽쪽,ퟟ뒴탂췆뚯탍뗄랢햹뗀슷ꆣ헹뛋,쪹컒맺솬탸11쓪돉캪좫쟲퓢쫜랴쟣쿺뗷닩ퟮ뛠뗄맺볒ꆣ듋췢,돖탸퓶듳뗄쎳틗쮳닮뮹떼훂죋쏱닎뾼컄쿗:뇒쏦쇙뻞듳뗄짽횵톹솦ꆣ[1]ꆡ[쏀]PaulKrugman.쿴쳵뺭볃톧뗄믘맩[M].놱뺩:훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧,ꆡ룟춶싊뛔ퟮ훕쿻럑뗄펰쿬럖컶[2]ꆡ맺췁풴늿.2006쓪훐맺맺췁풴릫놨[EB/OL].내헕GDP짺닺폫쪹폃욽뫢뗄풭샭,튻뚨솿뗄[2007-6-29]. 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
