ꆶ닆쎳뺭볃ꆷ2007쓪뗚1웚Finance&TradeEconomics,No11,2007훐맺:룟뒢탮ꆢ룟춶뫍룟퓶뎤퇐뺿샮ꆡ퇯ꆡ틳붣럥ꆡ돂뫩늨ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:놾컄첽쳖쇋훐맺뺭볃랢햹맽돌훐뎤웚듦퓚뗄룟뒢탮ꆢ룟춶뫍룟퓶뎤늢듦뗄쿖쿳ꆣ컄헂죏캪:죋뿚뫬샻ꆢ릤튵뮯ꆢ돇쫐뮯뫍쫐뎡뮯룄룯,쫇퓬돉훐맺뺭볃ꆰ죽룟ꆱ뗄쪵쳥뺭볃틲쯘뫍쳥훆틲쯘,헢킩틲쯘늢늻쓜평뫪맛뺭볃헾닟폨틔뗷헻ꆣ컄헂ퟮ뫳쳡돶쇋듳솦랢햹횱뷓죚뗄룄룯뛔닟ꆣ맘볼듊:뒢탮ꆡ춶ꆡ죋뿚뫬샻ꆡ릤튵뮯ꆡ돇쫐뮯ꆡ뺭볃룄룯ퟷ헟볲뷩:샮ꆡ퇯,훐맺짧뿆풺톧늿캯풱ꆢ뷰죚쯹쯹뎤ꆢ뺭볃톧늩쪿ꆢ퇐뺿풱,100732;틳붣럥,훐맺짧뿆풺뷰죚쯹뷡릹뷰죚쫒훷죎ꆢ뺭볃톧늩쪿ꆢ뢱퇐뺿풱,100732;돂뫩늨,훐맺짧뿆풺뷰죚쯹늩쪿뫳퇐뺿죋풱ꆢ뺭볃톧늩쪿,100732ꆣ훐춼럖샠뫅:F830ꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1002-8102(2007)01-0026-081978쓪틔살,컒맺뺭볃훐랴펳춶쮮욽뗄횸뇪ꆪꆪꆪ춶싊(GDP쪹폃훐춶쯹햼뗄럝뛮)튻횱뒦폚쿠떱룟뗄쮮욽,뛸쟒돊훰붥짏짽횮쫆(춼1)ꆣ춬쪱,컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤벰웤늨뚯튲춬춶싊뗄쮮욽벰웤늨뚯폐ퟅ쏜쟐뗄맘쾵:GDP퓶뎤싊폫춶싊퓧퓚짏쫀볍80쓪듺뇣틠늽틠쟷,뷸죫90쓪듺틔살,솽헟뗄춬늽맘쾵룼폐쏷쿔볓잿횮쫆ꆣ퓚듓2002쓪뗗뾪쪼뗄놾싖뺭볃늨뚯훐,춶퓶뎤싊짏짽뫍춶싊뗄퓙듎룟웴쿔좻돉캪뺭볃뻖늿맽죈뗄훷튪풭틲ꆣ펦떱쮵,퓚쒳튻쪱웚,춨맽톹쯵쒳킩뗘쟸뫍쒳킩탐튵뗄춶살컈뚨뺭볃퓶뎤늢뿘훆컯볛쮮욽,쫇뫪맛뗷뿘뗄뫏뫵싟벭뗄톡퓱ꆣ춼1ꆡ훐맺뗄뒢탮싊뫍춶싊좻뛸,벬쫖뗄컊쳢쫇,뛔폚춶싊뎤웚룟탼쿖쿳,뺡맜샭싛뷧쪼훕쎻폐춣횹맽쳖싛,늢뾪맽뛠훖훎샭ꆰ튩랽ꆱ,뫪맛뗷뿘떱뻖튲쪼훕쎻폐럅웺맽뿘훆춶싊뗄얬솦,떫쫇,춶싊쿠뛔짏짽뗄룱뻖웹뷱늢캴랢짺룹놾탔룄뇤,쿠펦뗘,맺쓚쿻럑싊죕붥쿂붵쟷쫆튲퓚늻뛏랢햹ꆣ튻훖쿖쿳퓚뎤듯20뛠쓪뗄쪱웚훐쪼훕듦퓚,쟒폐폺퇝폺쇒횮쫆,웤훐뇘폐쒳훖맦싉듦퓚ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇쿔좻늻쓜볲떥뗘붫훐맺뗄룟뒢탮뫍룟춶맩뷡캪평쒳훖늻뫏샭뗄뛌웚틲쯘쯹훂,뛸펦떱짮죫첽쳖웤놳뫳뎤웚랢믓ퟷ폃뗄뺭볃믺훆ꆣ튻ꆢ룄룯뾪럅틔살뗄훐맺뺭볃:룟춶싊뫍룼룟뗄뒢탮싊뒢탮ꆢ춶벰웤쿠뮥맘쾵,릹돉뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐뗄뫋탄컊쳢ꆣ틲듋,럖컶룟춶싊컊쳢,쳘뇰쫇,럖컶룟춶싊뗄샻뇗뗃쪧벰웤뛔맺쏱뺭볃뗄좫쏦펰쿬,뇘탫춬쪱럖컶ퟷ캪펲뇒횮쇭튻쏦뗄뒢탮싊뗄뚯첬벰웤춬춶싊뗄뛔펦맘쾵ꆣ헢훖맘쾵,뿉틔폃맺쏱쫕죫뫣뗈쪽볓틔쮵쏷ꆣ26
쿈뾴럢뇕뺭볃뗄쟩뿶ꆣ퓚탨쟳뻶뚨뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쫐뎡뺭볃훐,맺쏱닺돶뿉틔놻볲떥뗘럖뷢캪쿻럑뫍춶솽듳샠,벴Y=C+I,믲헟,뗈볛뗘뇤돉뒢탮폫춶횮볤뗄뗈쪽:S=Iꆣ헢쪱,죧맻춶듳폚뒢탮,돶쿖쯹캽ꆰ뒢탮좱뿚ꆱ,틢캶ퟅ튻늿럖춶뗃늻떽맺쓚풴뗄횧독,뺭볃붫쏦쇙춨믵엲헍뗄췾킲;랴횮,죧맻춶킡폚뒢탮,돶쿖쯹캽ꆰ춶좱뿚ꆱ,맺쓚풴붫뗃늻떽돤럖샻폃,뺭볃붫뒦폚춨믵뷴쯵뗄톹솦횮쿂ꆣ퓚뾪럅뺭볃훐,맺쓚뗄뒢탮좱뿚믲춶좱뿚뿉틔춨맽틽죫맺췢뒢탮믲맺췢춶폨틔욽뫢,벴Y=C+I+(X-M),웤뗈볛뗄뇭쪾뻍쫇맺쓚뒢탮폫맺쓚춶횮닮뗈폚맺췢탨쟳:S-I=X-Mꆣ뒢탮폫춶늻쿠뗈믲뷸뿚뫍돶뿚늻쿠뗈,뻹뿉놻쫓캪맺쏱뺭볃듦퓚쪧뫢ꆣ쿔좻,퓚뾪럅뺭볃쳵볾쿂,튻맺뺭볃뿉쓜춬쪱듦퓚ퟅ솽샠쪧뫢:쓚늿쪧뫢뫍췢늿쪧뫢ꆣ쓚늿쪧뫢횸뗄쫇맺쓚뒢탮뫍맺쓚춶뗄늻쿠뗈;쿠펦뗘,췢늿쪧뫢퓲쫇횸돶뿚뫍뷸뿚뗄뎤웚늻쿠뗈ꆣ퓚뾪럅뺭볃쳵볾쿂,쓚늿쪧뫢뫍췢늿쪧뫢쫇쿠뛔펦뗄,뮻퇔횮,뷸돶뿚닮뛮ퟷ캪튻룶욽뫢틲쯘닎폫쇋튻맺뫪맛뺭볃뗄퓋탐ꆣ퓚맺쓚뒢탮듳폚맺쓚춶뗄쳵볾쿂,뺻뛮돶뿚(냩횮틔췢믣뒢놸뗄뺻뛮퓶볓믲놾췢쇷)뿉틔쪹튻맺뺭볃쪵쿖컞춨믵뷴쯵뗄뻹뫢퓶뎤;퓚춶듳폚뒢탮뗄쳵볾쿂,뺻뛮뷸뿚(냩횮틔췢믣뒢놸뗄복짙믲놾쓚쇷)뿉틔쪹튻맺뺭볃쪵쿖컞춨믵엲헍뗄뻹뫢퓶뎤ꆣ훐맺뺭볃쿔좻뎤웚뒦폚쓚늿쪧뫢뫍췢늿쪧뫢춬쪱늢듦뗄ힴ첬ꆣ맛달룄룯뾪럅틔살컒맺뺭볃뗄퓋탐뿉틔뾴떽:틔1989쓪캪뷧,컒맺뺭볃뗄쓚췢쪧뫢ힴ첬듳훂뿉틔럖캪솽룶뷗뛎ꆣ1978ꆫ1989쓪캪뗚튻뷗뛎ꆣ듋볤,돽쇋1982뫍1983솽쓪,춶듳폚뒢탮쫇컒맺뺭볃뗄뎣첬ꆣ헢훖ힴ뿶뇈뷏럻뫏랢햹뺭볃톧뗄뺭뗤랶쪽:ퟷ캪랢햹훐맺볒,풴뛌좱(뒢탮좱뿚)쫇컒쏇뗄훷튪쎬뛜ꆣ틲듋,틽뷸맺췢풴(쿠펦뗘돶쿖쎳틗돠ퟖ)쫇컒맺쒱쟳뿬쯙랢햹뗄훘튪춾뺶ꆣ1989쓪훁뷱캪뗚뛾뷗뛎ꆣ듋볤,돽쇋1993쓪뗄샽췢,뒢탮듳폚춶돉캪컒맺뺭볃퓋탐뗄뎣첬ꆣ뮻퇔횮,뺡맜춶싊틑뺭룟뗃쇮죋늻낲,떫쯼틀좻쎻폐룟떽쓜릻붫맺쓚뒢탮췪좫컼쫕뗄돌뛈ꆣ듋쪱,뇘탫틽뷸튻룶췢늿뗄탨쟳(뺻돶뿚),랽쓜쏖뫏맺쓚춶좱뿚,뛸쟒,죧맻뺻돶뿚쎻폐듳떽붫맽쪣뗄맺쓚뒢탮췪좫컼쫕뗄돌뛈,맺쓚죔붫돶쿖춨믵뷴쯵ꆣ틲듋,뻍뷼10뛠쓪뗄쟩뿶럖컶,죧맻쮵컒맺뺭볃쪧뫢뗄풭틲살ퟔ춶랽쏦,쓇튲펦맩틲폚맺쓚뗄춶캴쓜폐킧뗘붫맺쓚뗄뒢탮췪좫컼쫕뗴ꆣ헽틲캪죧듋,뎤웚뗄룟춶늻뷶쎻폐퓚맺쓚퓬돉쿔훸뗄춨믵엲헍톹솦,쿠랴,춨믵뷴쯵뗄틵펰좴튻횱죴틾죴쿖ꆣ퓚좫쟲뮯뗄뺭볃훐,튻맺뺭볃퓋탐뗄쿖쪵ힴ첬뇘탫놻훃폚춬쯻맺뗄솪쾵횮훐랽쓜좫쏦죏쪶ꆣ평폚좫쟲뺭볃ퟜ쫇욽뫢뗄,튻맺믲죴룉맺볒뗄뺭볃쪧뫢,뇣튻뚨믡폐쯻맺랽쿲쿠랴뗄쪧뫢쿠뛔펦ꆣ뻝듋,뛔튻맺뺭볃쪧뫢쿖쿳뗄럖컶,뇣퓶볓쇋튻룶탂뗄룼캪뢴퓓뗄좫쟲쫓뷇ꆣ2005쓪쿂냫쓪,맺볊믵뇒믹뷰ퟩ횯췪돉쇋튻쿮맘폚좫쟲뺭볃쪧뫢컊쳢뗄듳탍퇐뺿(IMF,2005)ꆣ룃퇐뺿죏캪,좫쟲뺭볃헽뒦폚튻훖든죵뗄쪧뫢ힴ첬훐ꆣ웤뻟쳥뇭쿖뻍쫇:퓚좫쟲뗄훷튪뺭볃쳥훐,튻랽쏦,듦퓚뒢탮킡폚춶듓뛸뺭뎣쿮쒿뎤웚놣돖쓦닮뗄맺볒,헢뻍쫇쏀맺뫍얷훞;쇭튻랽쏦,웤쯻맺볒벸뫵뚼뒦폚뒢탮뎤웚듳폚춶듓뛸뺭뎣쿮쒿뎤웚쮳닮뗄ힴ첬ꆣ뮻퇔횮,짏룶쫀볍쒩틔살,훐맺ꆢ죕놾ꆢ뫍웤쯻퇇훞맺볒뗄뺻뒢탮쏖늹쇋쏀맺뗄뒢탮늻ퟣ,횧독쇋쏀맺뗄맺쓚탨쟳뫍뺭볃퓶뎤;쿠펦뗘,쏀맺ퟷ캪쫀뷧짏ퟮ뢻폐뗄맺볒,틲뛸돉캪쫀뷧짏ퟮ듳뗄놾쫤죫맺뫍햮컱맺ꆣ쿠랴,쿱훐맺헢훖쿠뛔실뫳뗄랢햹훐맺볒,좴늻뛏뗘쿲췢쫤돶놾,춬쪱믽샛웰듳솿뗄뛔췢햮좨ꆣ쿔좻,쯹캽좫쟲뺭볃쪧뫢,퓚쿖쿳짏횸뗄쫇룷맺볤뺭뎣쿮쒿뗄늻욽뫢,퓚룼짮뿌뗄틢틥짏,쯼횸뗄쫇쫀뷧룷맺맺쓚뗄뒢탮뫍춶뗄쪧뫢;뛸뒢탮폫춶뗄쪧뫢,쿔좻룹풴폚룷맺맺쏱뺭볃뗄ퟜ쳥쪧뫢ꆣ듓샭싛짏쮵,룷맺돶쿖뒢탮폫춶뗄늻욽뫢펦쫴뎣첬ꆣ틲캪,헢룶쫀뷧놾뻍쫇퓚ꆰ뮥춨폐컞ꆱ뗄ힴ첬쿂뻹뫢랢햹뗄ꆣ죧뷱죋쏇쯹틔뛔좫쟲뺭볃쪧뫢폇탄,쫇틲캪:쒿잰헢훖틔랢햹훐맺볒뎤웚쎳틗쮳닮ꆢ랢듯맺볒뎤웚쎳틗쓦닮,듓뛸쫂쪵짏퓬돉랢햹훐맺볒퓚쪵컯짏ꆰ늹쳹ꆱ랢듯맺볒늢쿲웤쫤돶놾캪쳘헷뗄톭뮷,랴펳뗄쫇튻훖늻헽뎣뗄뻹뫢맘쾵,웤뫏샭탔만좻펦떱훊틉,웤뿉돖탸탔룼쇮죋떣탄;튻떩헢훖든죵뗄톭뮷뛏쇑,좫쟲뻍붫쿝죫캣믺횮훐ꆣ27
뛾ꆢ훐맺:룟춶싊뫍룟뒢탮싊쫇죋뿚뷡릹뇤뮯뗄뷡맻퓚뛌웚쓚,뒢탮싊훷튪쫇믵뇒샻싊뗄몯쫽,춶싊훷튪쫇놾샻죳싊뗄몯쫽ꆣ뛸퓚뎤웚쓚,뒢탮싊뗄룟뗍훷튪뻶뚨폚죋뿚뷡릹,뛸춶싊퓲좡뻶폚놾샻죳싊뫍뎤웚샻싊뗄뛔뇈맘쾵ꆣ룟춶싊뫍룟뒢탮싊뎤웚늢듦뗄쿖쿳춬ꆰ죋뿚뫬샻ꆱ쏜쟐쿠맘ꆣ죋뿚뫬샻닺짺폚죋뿚뗄쓪쇤뷡릹뇤뮯:퓚튻늨ꆰ펤뛹뎱ꆱ횮뫳뗄쫽쪮쓪샯,춨뎣랢짺뗄쿖쿳쫇,뺭볃훐쫊쇤샍뚯죋뿚뗄뇈훘퓶볓,뛸뛹춯죋뿚뇈훘(짙뛹뢧퇸뇈)뫍샏쓪죋뿚뇈훘(샏쓪뢧퇸뇈)퓲쿠뛔쿂붵ꆣ퓚죋뿚랢짺헢훖뷡릹뇤뮯뗄맽돌훐,죧맻쫊쇤샍뚯죋뿚쓜릻춬쪱믱뗃뻍튵,퓲ퟜ죋뿚뗄샍뚯닎폫싊짏짽ꆣ닎폫싊짏짽훁짙듓솽룶랽쏦췆뚯쇋뒢탮싊뗄짏짽:뗚튻,릤ퟷ죋뿚뗄뇈훘짏짽떼훂좫늿죋뿚뗄ퟜ쫕죫퓶볓,헢뇘좻믡쳡룟뒢탮쮮욽;뗚뛾,쓪쟠릤ퟷ죋뿚뗄쿠뛔퓶볓,붫믡떼훂ퟜ죋뿚뗄쿻럑쟣쿲쿂붵ꆢ뒢탮쟣쿲짏짽,듓뛸닺짺뷸튻늽뗄뒢탮싊쳡룟킧펦ꆣ듋쪱,죧맻춶싊튲쓜릻쿠펦쳡룟,맺쏱뺭볃뇣붫믱뗃튻룶룟뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆣ헢훖평죋뿚뷡릹뇤뮯쯹떼훂뗄ꆰ죽룟ꆱꆪꆪꆪ룟뒢탮ꆢ룟춶뫍룟뺭볃퓶뎤춬쪱늢듦뗄쿖쿳뻍쫇ꆰ죋뿚뫬샻ꆱꆣ1949쓪틔살,훐맺뗄죋뿚퓶뎤쿔훸뗘뺭샺쇋솽늨펤뛹뎱(춼2)ꆣ튻늨쫇퓚짏룶쫀볍60쓪듺,죋뿚ퟔ좻퓶뎤싊캬돖퓚20ꇫꆫ30ꇫ뗄쮮욽;쇭튻늨쫇퓚룄룯뾪럅뫳뗄80쓪듺,죋뿚ퟔ좻퓶뎤싊캬돖퓚15ꇫퟳ폒뗄쮮욽ꆣ춨맽볲떥뗄췆쯣뇣뿉횪:60쓪듺펤뛹뎱웚볤돶짺뗄죋뿚쒿잰듳풼퓚35ꆫ45쯪웚볤ꆣ헢룶쓪쇤뛎뗄죋뿚늻뷶쫇룄룯뾪럅뫳샍뚯듳뻼뗄훷튪ퟩ돉늿럖,뛸쟒,쯦ퟅ웤릤ퟷ뗄컈뚨뫍ퟓ얮돉죋,웤쫕죫쿠뛔퓶뎤쟒쿻럑싊좴쿠뛔쿂붵,훂쪹헢킩죋뿚돉캪떱잰컒맺뗄훷튪뒢탮헟ꆣ춬샭,80쓪듺펤뛹뎱웚볤돶짺뗄죋뿚,튲붫퓚캴살10ꆫ20쓪훐돉캪훷튪뗄짺닺헟뫍뒢탮헟ꆣ춼2ꆡ훐맺뗄죋뿚퓶뎤(1949ꆫ2004)솽늨펤뛹뎱ꆢ폈웤쫇60쓪듺뗄펤뛹뎱췆뚯쇋훐맺죋뿚뷡릹뗄뇤뮯ꆣ룹뻝샺듎죋뿚웕닩뫍2004쓪1%죋뿚뗄돩퇹뗷닩뷡맻,컒쏇뿉틔쟥돾뗘뾴떽(닎볻춼3):듓짏룶쫀볍60쓪듺뾪쪼,컒맺쫊쇤샍뚯죋뿚(15훁64쯪죋뿚)훰붥짏짽,떽2004쓪,쫊쇤샍뚯죋뿚뇈훘틑뺭듯떽72%틔짏ꆣ춼3ꆡ훐맺뗄죋뿚뷡릹뗄뇤뮯춬웤쯻맺볒튻퇹,죋뿚쓪쇤뷡릹뗄쓪쟠뮯퓚컒맺튲닺짺쇋룟뒢탮싊ꆢ룟춶싊뫍룟뺭볃퓶뎤싊춬쪱늢듦뗄ꆰ죋뿚뫬샻ꆱꆣ퓚쫊쇤샍뚯죋뿚뇈훘퓶볓뗄춬쪱,컒맺쫊쇤샍뚯죋뿚뗄뻍튵싊튻횱캬돖퓚98%ퟳ폒뗄쮮욽,헢떼훂ퟜ죋뿚뗄샍뚯닎폫싊쯦ퟅ죋뿚쓪쇤뷡릹뗄뇤뮯뛸뗝퓶ꆣ퓚룄룯뾪럅뾪쪼뗄1979쓪,컒맺뗄ퟜ죋뿚닎폫싊횻폐42%,떽2004쓪,ퟜ죋뿚닎폫싊틑뺭듯떽뷼58%ꆣ듓뇤뚯28
쟷쫆짏뾴(닎볻춼4),ퟜ죋뿚닎폫싊폫뒢탮싊ꆢ춶싊뗄ퟟ쿲쿔좻룟뛈튻훂ꆣ룹뻝훐맺죋뿚폫랢햹퇐뺿훐탄뗄풤닢(닌죕랽,2004),쒿잰컒맺쫊쇤샍뚯죋뿚뗄룟뇈훘붫튻횱캬돖떽2010쓪;2020쓪뫳,퓚샍뚯죋뿚뻸뛔쫽솿복짙뗄췆뚯쿂,쫊쇤샍뚯죋뿚뇈훘붫랢짺뷏캪쏷쿔뗄쿂붵ꆣ뮻퇔횮,퓚캴살5ꆫ15쓪뗄쪱볤샯,춼4ꆡ훐맺:죋뿚닎폫싊폫뒢탮싊뫍놾탎돉싊훐맺뗄룟뒢탮싊틀좻믡뗃떽캬돖,듋뫳뇣믡훰붥쿂붵ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ,룟뒢탮ꆢ룟춶뫍룟퓶뎤춬쪱늢듦뗄룱뻖퓚훐맺뮹붫퇓탸5ꆫ15쓪;퓚헢뛎쪱볤샯,죧맻늻쓜릻춨맽룟춶살돤럖샻폃뒢탮,뷸뛸췆뚯뺭볃욽컈뿬쯙퓶뎤,쓇쎴,틔뫳컒쏇뿉쓜뻍퓙튲늻믡폐헢퇹뗄믺믡쇋ꆣ죽ꆢ룟춶/룟뒢탮ꆢ릤튵뮯뫍돇쫐뮯:뮥캪틲맻뗄맘쾵듓룷맺뗄뺭퇩뾴,죋뿚쓪쇤뷡릹뗄뇤뮯횻쫇룟뒢탮ꆢ룟춶뫍룟퓶뎤늢듦뗄잰쳡쳵볾횮튻ꆣ탎돉ꆰ죽룟ꆱ뗄쇭튻룶잰쳡쫇쫊쇤샍뚯죋뿚쓜릻뻍튵ꆢ폈웤쫇퓚뺭볃퓶볓횵뷏룟뗄럇얩닺튵훐뻍튵ꆣ평폚럇얩닺튵뗄샍뚯짺닺싊뷏룟,헢붫떼훂쫕죫쿔훸짏짽,듓뛸삭뚯뒢탮싊짏짽ꆣ춬쪱,샍뚯솦듓얩튵쿲럇얩닺튵뗄틆,복짙쇋맽뛠뗄얩튵뻍튵죋뿚,튲믡닺짺쳡룟얩튵뻍튵죋풱쫕죫쮮욽뗄킧맻ꆪꆪꆪ좫늿죋뿚쫕죫뗄짏짽뇘붫듸살뒢탮퓶볓뗄킧펦,뛸뒢탮뗄퓶볓폖캪춶뗄퓶볓쳡릩쇋쳵볾,듓뛸탎돉튻룶럇얩닺튵뻍튵퓶볓ꆪ쫕죫짏짽ꆪ뒢탮짏짽ꆪ춶짏짽ꆪ럇얩닺튵뻍튵뷸튻늽짏짽뗄솼탔톭뮷ꆣ럇얩닺튵뻍튵싊뗄짏짽,쫗쿈춬릤튵뮯뷸돌쏜쟐쿠맘ꆣ죧맻쮵죋뿚뷡릹뗄뇤뮯쫇죋뿚뫬샻닺짺뗄믹뒡,쓇쎴,릤튵뮯퓲쫇죋뿚뫬샻닺짺뗄뇘튪쳵볾ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ,죋뿚뫬샻뗄닺짺뮹폐삵폚릤튵뮯뷸돌뗄짮죫랢햹ꆣ럇얩뻍튵뇈싊뗄짏짽늻뷶랴펳쇋릤튵뮯뷸돌뗄짮뮯,튲쫇돇쫐뮯뷸돌톸쯙랢햹뗄쳥쿖ꆣ쫂쪵짏,릤튵뮯뫍돇쫐뮯쫇뮥캪틲맻뗄솽룶늻뿉럖룮뗄맽돌ꆣ듓죋뿚쟸폲럖늼뗄뷇뛈뾴,돇쫐쟸뇰폚얩듥뗄튻룶쿔훸쳘헷뻍쫇죋뿚쿠뛔벯훐ꆣ뛸죋뿚횮쯹틔쓜릻벯훐웰살탎돉돇쫐,웤믹놾뗄췆뚯틲쯘뻍쫇럖릤뫍붻뮻믮뚯뗄짮뮯ꆪꆪꆪ퓚샭싛뫍쪵볹짏,럖릤뫍붻뮻튻쿲뻍쫇듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤뗄ퟮ돵뗄뫍돖탸랢믓ퟷ폃뗄틲쯘ꆣ폫릤튵룯쏼횮잰뗄럢붨돇쫐뫍쎳틗돇쫐쿠뇈,릤튵뮯듓솽룶랽쏦벫듳뗘췆뚯쇋쫐뎡맦쒣쓋훁돇쫐뗄랢햹:뗚튻,릤튵뮯쪹뗃뻟폐맦쒣뺭볃폅쫆뗄릤뎧뗃틔닺짺;뗚뛾,릤튵뮯쪹뗃릤뎧뫍릤뎧횮볤ꆢ닺튵뫍닺튵횮볤닺짺쇋쿠뮥듙뷸뗄뻛벯킧펦ꆣ랴맽살,춨맽샍뚯솦쫐뎡ꆢ훐볤욷쫐뎡뫍쿻럑욷쫐뎡맦쒣뗄삩듳,돇쫐뮯튲벫듳뗘듙뷸쇋릤튵뮯뗄랢햹ꆣ볲퇔횮,퓚릤튵뮯뫍쿠냩뗄돇쫐뮯맽돌훐,룟뒢탮뫍룟춶쫇헽뎣쿖쿳ꆣ랴살,룟뒢탮뫍룟춶튲릹돉튻맺뺭볃릤튵뮯뫍돇쫐뮯뗄뇘튪쳵볾ꆣ쯄ꆢ훐맺뗄룟춶뫍룟뒢탮:릤튵뮯ꆢ돇쫐뮯뫍쳥훆룄룯뗄ퟛ뫏뷡맻ퟷ캪튻룶랢햹훐맺볒,훐맺뗄뒢탮뫍춶뗄뚯첬쫇평릤튵뮯뫍돇쫐뮯뷸돌ퟳ폒뗄ꆣ춬쪱,훐맺ퟷ캪튻룶탍맺볒,뒢탮뫍춶뗄뚯첬폖잿쇒쫜떽뺭볃쳥훆룄룯뗄펰쿬ꆣ볲퇔횮ꆰ,탂탋ꆱ볓ꆰ맬ꆱ헢솽룶믹놾쳘헷,뻶뚨쇋맽좥ꆢ떱잰틔벰캴살튻뛎쪱웚훐맺뗄뒢탮뫍춶뗄룱뻖ꆣ(튻)릤튵뮯뗄펰쿬훐맺릤튵뮯뗄쒣쪽퓚룄룯뾪럅잰뫳쿔좻듦퓚벫듳뗄닮틬ꆣ퓚룄룯뾪럅잰,볆뮮뺭볃쳥훆뫍늻맋뿍맛뺭볃맦싉뗄훘릤튵뮯돥뚯틖훆쇋훐맺뗄헽뎣릤튵뮯뷸돌ꆣ룄룯뾪럅뫳,쯦ퟅ쫐뎡뺭볃쳥훆뗄훰늽붨솢,릤튵뮯뷸돌뾪쪼ퟱ톭뺭볃뗄뿍맛맦싉뛸쮳샻햹뾪ꆣ29
춼5ꆡ훐맺럇얩뻍튵뇈싊(ퟳ훡)폫뒢탮싊뫍놾탎돉싊(폒훡)ꆡꆡ뻍룄룯뾪럅뫳뗄릤튵뮯뷸돌벰웤킧맻뛸퇔,튻룶쿔훸뗄횸뇪쫇럇얩뻍튵죋뿚햼좫늿뻍튵죋뿚뇈훘훰붥짏짽(춼5)ꆣ틔럇얩뻍튵죋뿚뗄뇤뮯캪쿟쯷,컒쏇뿉틔붫1978쓪뫳컒맺뗄릤튵뮯뷸돌뮮럖캪죽룶뷗뛎ꆣ1978ꆫ1990쓪캪뗚튻뷗뛎ꆣ헢룶뷗뛎뗄릤튵뮯쫇퓚얩듥뺭볃쳥훆룄룯뗄췆뚯쿂햹뾪뗄,뗃떽랢햹뗄훷튪닺튵쫇쟡릤튵ꆣ1991ꆫ2000쓪캪뗚뛾룶뷗뛎ꆣ맺폐뺭볃쳥훆룄룯뫍뛔췢뾪럅릹돉듋볤릤튵뮯뗄훷튪췆뚯솦,믱뗃뿬쯙랢햹뗄훷튪닺튵쫇돶뿚떼쿲뗄볓릤튵뫍튻냣훆퓬튵ꆣ2001쓪틔살캪뗚죽룶뷗뛎ꆣ퓚헢룶뷗뛎,컒맺룷쿮룄룯뾪럅헾닟뚼뗃떽뷸튻늽뗄짮뮯,퓚닺튵랢햹짏,퓲돊쿖돶쿔훸뗄훘릤튵뮯쟷쿲ꆣ쯦ퟅ릤튵뮯뗄짮죫,뒢탮싊뫍춶싊튲돊쿖돶늨뚯훐짏짽뗄첬쫆:퓚1978ꆫ1990쓪뗄뗚튻룶뷗뛎,욽뻹뒢탮싊뫍춶싊럖뇰캪%뫍%;퓚1991ꆫ2000쓪뗄뗚뛾뷗뛎,욽뻹뒢탮싊뫍춶싊럖뇰캪%뫍%;퓚2001쓪훁뷱뗄뗚죽룶뷗뛎,욽뻹뒢탮싊뫍춶싊퓲럖뇰뷸튻늽쳡룟떽%뫍%ꆣ퓚뒢탮싊뫍춶싊쯦릤튵뮯뷸돌뗄짽벶뛸늻뛏짏짽뗄춬쪱,컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽뒢탮싊뫍춶싊돊쿖듳웰듳실뗄훜웚탔늨뚯쳘헷ꆣ웤믹놾풭틲쫇:릤튵뮯뫍룟뒢탮싊ꆢ룟춶싊쫇뮥캪틲맻뗄,틲듋,뒢탮ꆢ춶뗄훜웚탔늨뚯뇘좻춬릤튵뮯뷸돌뗄늨뚯쏜쟐쿠맘ꆣ컒쏇틀좻폃럇얩뻍튵뇈샽뗄뚯첬살쮵쏷헢훖맘쾵ꆣ춼6붫헢룶뇈샽뗄쓪뛈뇤뮯폫뒢탮싊ꆢ춶싊뗄쓪뛈뇤뮯싊뷸탐쇋뛔뇈ꆣ뿉틔쟥돾뗘뾴떽,뒢탮싊ꆢ춶싊뗄훜웚탔늨뚯춬럇얩뻍튵뇈싊뗄훜웚탔뇤뮯뻟폐룟뛈뗄튻훂탔ꆣ헢뷸튻늽횤쪵:뒢탮싊뫍춶싊,컞싛쫇웤뻸뛔쮮욽,뮹쫇웤늨뚯,뚼춬릤튵뮯뗄뷸돌쏜쟐쿠맘ꆣ춼6ꆡ훐맺럇얩뻍튵뇈샽ꆢ뒢탮싊뫍춶싊:뮷뇈퓶뎤컒쏇늻럁튲폃잮쓉샯뫍뿢쓹듄뗄릤튵뮯뇪ힼꋙ살럖컶튻쿂훐맺뗄룷쿮횸뇪ꆣ내떱웚믣싊볆쯣,2004쓪,컒맺죋뻹GDP듯떽1000쏀풪싔룟,틑뺭뷸죫릤튵뮯뗄훐웚;죽듎닺튵GDP뷡릹캪15:53:32,뒦퓚릤튵뮯돉쫬웚;죽듎닺튵뻍튵뷡릹캪49:22:29,뒦퓚릤튵뮯돵웚;돇헲뮯싊캪%,뒦퓚릤튵뮯뗄돵웚쿲훐웚맽뛉뷗뛎ꆣퟛ뫏틔짏4쿮횸뇪,컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽헢퇹뗄ퟜ쳥에뛏:훐맺뗄릤튵뮯쮮욽듳훂뒦폚릤튵뮯훐웚뷗뛎ꆣ죧맻헢룶에뛏헽좷,뷸튻늽뗄뷡싛뇣뫜쏷좷:훐맺뗄릤튵뮯뷸돌뮹믡돖탸뷏뎤쪱볤,틲듋,뒢탮싊뫍춶싊죔믡퓚쿠떱뎤쪱볤쓚놣돖뷏룟뗄쮮욽ꆣ뮹뿉틔폐뷸튻늽뗄럖컶ꆣ내헕쫀뷧룷맺닺튵뷡릹퇝뇤뗄뺭퇩,퓚죋뻹닺돶뗄늻춬뷗뛎,믲헟ꋙ잮쓉샯ꆢ슳뇶톷ꆢ주뛻틲훸ꆶ:릤튵뮯뫍뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뇈뷏퇐뺿ꆷ,짏몣죽솪쫩뗪1995쓪냦ꆣ30
쮵,퓚릤튵뮯뗄늻춬뷗뛎,랢햹뗄훘뗣닺튵쫇폐쯹쟸뇰뗄ꆣ룹뻝닺튵뷡릹뷗뛎뫍랢햹훘탄퇝뇤뗄맦싉,훐맺헽뒦폚볓쯙릤튵뮯뷗뛎ꆣ내헕쒿잰뗄뺭볃랢햹쮮욽뫍릤튵랢햹돌뛈,훷튪뗄릤튵랢햹랽쿲펦룃쫇믹뒡릤튵ꆢ훘볓릤튵뫍붨훾튵뗈ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ,캴살훐맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤붫평헢킩훘뮯릤닺튵캪훷떼,헢킩뚼쫇놾쏜벯탍닺튵,쯼쏇뗄랢햹,쿔좻튪쟳룼룟뗄뒢탮싊뫍춶싊폨틔횧독ꆣ(뛾)돇쫐뮯뗄ퟷ폃냩쯦ퟅ릤튵뮯뗄뷸돌,룄룯뾪럅뫳훐맺뗄돇쫐뮯쮮욽튲톸쯙쳡룟ꆣ룹뻝샺듎좫맺죋뿚웕닩뗄쫽뻝,1964쓪돇헲죋뿚햼좫늿죋뿚뗄뇈훘횻폐늻떽20%,1984쓪뎬맽쇋20%,1990쓪듯떽뷼30%,뛸2000쓪퓲틑뷓뷼40%ꆣ듓돇쿧뻍튵뗄럖늼뗄뇤뮯훐뿉틔룼볓쟥컺뗘쇋뷢훐맺돇쫐뮯뗄뷸돌:1978쓪,퓚좫늿뻍튵죋뿚훐,돇헲뻍튵죋뿚뗄뇈훘횻폐늻떽24%,2004쓪퓲짏짽떽35%잿ꆣ폫릤튵뮯뗄죽룶뷗뛎쿠쫊펦,돇헲뻍튵죋뿚뗄뇈훘튲돊쿖돶뷗뛎탔뗄뇤뮯:뗚튻룶뷗뛎쫇퓚1978ꆫ1990쓪,컒쏇폃쇋12쓪뗄쪱볤닅쪹돇헲뻍튵죋뿚뗄뇈훘짏짽쇋늻떽3룶냙럖뗣;뗚뛾룶뷗뛎퓚1991ꆫ2000쓪,돇헲뻍튵죋뿚뇈훘평늻떽27%짏짽떽32%틔짏,10쓪쓚짏짽쇋5룶냙럖뗣ퟳ폒;뗚죽룶뷗뛎듓2001쓪뾪쪼,퓚2001ꆫ2004쓪뗄4쓪쪱볤쓚,돇헲뻍튵죋뿚뇈훘뻍짏짽쇋3룶냙럖뗣ꆣ헢쟥돾뗘쮵쏷,컒맺뗄돇쫐뮯쯙뛈퓚쏷쿔볓뿬ꆣ죧맻내헕쒿잰뗄쯙뛈살췆쯣,떽2010쓪,컒맺돇헲뻍튵죋뿚뇈훘붫뇈2001쓪쳡짽10룶냙럖뗣ퟳ폒,듯떽43%ퟳ폒뗄쮮욽ꆣ춼7ꆡ돇쫐뻍튵죋뿚햼뇈폫룟춶싊ꆢ룟뒢탮싊돇쫐죋뿚뫍뻍튵죋뿚뗄퓶볓췆뚯쇋뒢탮싊뫍춶싊뗄짏짽ꆣ튻랽쏦,평폚돇헲뻍튵벯훐퓚죋뻹쫕죫뷏룟뗄뗚뛾뫍뗚죽닺튵,쫕죫뗄퓶볓뇘좻떼훂뒢탮뗄짏짽ꆣ폐맘뗄샽횤늻쪤쎶뻙ꆣ평춼7뿉틔쟥돾뗘뾴떽,돇쫐뮯쟷쫆폫뒢탮싊ꆢ춶싊뗄쟷쫆쫇췪좫튻훂뗄ꆣ돇쫐뮯맽돌늻뷶횱뷓췆뚯쇋뒢탮뫍춶뗄짏짽,뛸쟒,춨맽돇헲뻓쏱뗄쿻럑뷡릹짽벶뮹뷸튻늽틽훂춶뗄퓶볓ꆣ2003쓪,컒맺죋뻹쫕죫쮮욽뎬맽쇋1000쏀풪ꆣ헢룶뇤뮯뗄펰쿬쫇뻞듳뗄,틲캪쯼틢캶ퟅ컒맺뻓쏱뗄쿻럑뷡릹랢짺쇋룹놾탔뇤뮯:쯤좻평폚듦퓚쫕죫럖엤늻릫뗈쿖쿳,컒맺틀좻듦퓚욶삧컊쳢,떫쫇,뛔폚풽살풽뛠뗄돇헲뻓쏱살쮵,힡랿ꆢ웻뎵ꆢ택쿐ꆢ싃폎뗈헽퓚돉캪탂뗄쿻럑죈뗣ꆣ폈웤횵뗃횸돶뗄쫇,듓짏룶쫀볍90쓪듺훐웚뾪쪼뗄틔쿻럑탅듻삩헅늢훰붥돉캪틸탐듻뿮훷쳥캪훷튪쓚죝뗄뷰죚뷡릹뗄뗷헻,폐킧뷢돽쇋떱웚쫕죫벰뒢탮뛔뻓쏱쿻럑듳ퟚ쿻럑욷뗄풤쯣풼쫸,룼뫃뗘욽뮬쇋쿻럑헟짺쏼훜웚쓚뗄쫕죫,룸폨죋쏇풤횧캴살쫕죫뗄뇣샻ꆣ2004쓪뗗,뛔쿻럑헟뗄듻뿮햼짌튵틸탐탂퓶듻뿮뗄뇈훘쫗듎뎬맽25%;춬쪱,랿뗘닺뾪랢듻뿮햼틸탐탂퓶듻뿮뗄뇈훘퓲ퟔ1998쓪틔살뻍뎬맽쇋10%ꆣ쯹폐헢킩,컞틉캪컒맺뻓쏱뺡뿬쪵쿖뗚죽듎탨쟳뷡릹뗄짽벶쳡릩쇋잿폐솦뗄뷰죚횧돖ꆣퟔ좻뗘,헢킩탂뗄쿻럑탨쟳,컞늻뛔짧믡믹뒡짨쪩ꆢ쫐헾붨짨ꆢ웻뎵ꆢ힡랿뗈탂닺튵닺짺뻞듳탨쟳;뛸헢킩탨쟳폖뚼뛔쎺뗧폍퓋뗈닺짺쇋뎤웚쟒돖탸뗄뻞듳톹솦ꆣ(죽)쫐뎡뮯룄룯뫍룟춶싊ꆢ룟뒢탮싊돽쇋릤튵뮯뫍돇쫐뮯뷸돌횮췢,뛔폚훐맺헢훖탍뺭볃쳥,쫐뎡뮯룄룯뗄늻뛏짮죫컞틉튲릹돉뒢탮싊뫍춶싊짏짽뗄훷튪췆뚯솦횮튻ꆣ쫗쿈,쫐뎡뮯룄룯쫇릤튵뮯뫍돇쫐뮯삵틔랢짺뗄믹뒡,틲뛸튲쫇뒢탮싊뫍춶싊짏짽뗄믹놾잰쳡ꆣ훚쯹훜횪,쫐뎡뮯룄룯뗄튻룶횱뷓뷡맻뻍쫇춶훷쳥듓틔맺폐뺭볃떥캻캪훷쿲뛠풪뮯훷쳥뗄31
뇤ꆣ춶훷쳥뗄뇤,틢캶ퟅ쫐뎡뺭볃믺훆훰늽퓚춶쇬폲랢믓훷떼ퟷ폃ꆣ헢늻뷶벫듳뗘듌벤쇋춶싊뗄짏짽,튲쳡룟쇋춶뗄킧싊ꆣ틲뛸,춶훷쳥뗄뛠풪뮯쫇컒맺릤튵뮯ꆢ돇쫐뮯쓋훁룟뒢탮싊ꆢ룟춶싊뗄믹놾훆뛈틲쯘ꆣ늻맽,폫맺폐뺭볃뗄뻍튵햼뇈쿠뇈,맺폐뺭볃뗄춶햼뇈쿔좻튪룟뗃뛠ꆣ샽죧,2004쓪,맺폐뺭볃뻍튵햼뇈뫍춶햼뇈럖뇰캪9%뫍35%ퟳ폒ꆣ헢훖뻍튵햼뇈뫍춶햼뇈뗄늻뛔돆뇭쏷,맺폐뺭볃훷튪벯훐퓚틔훘뮯릤튵캪훷뗄놾쏜벯탍닺튵훐ꆣ웤듎,쫐뎡뮯룄룯뗄짮죫,쪹뗃뻍튵죋뿚퓚뒫춳볆뮮뺭볃쳥훆쿂쿭쫜뗄룷훖뢣샻듽폶훰늽복짙쓋훁쿻쪧ꆣ퓚탨쟳랽쏦,룄룯쪹뗃탨쟳쿲쫐뎡틆,뇘좻튪쟳뻓쏱풤쿈퓶볓뒢탮,틔뇣뒢놸횧뢶쓜솦ꆣ듋췢,폫볆뮮뺭볃쳥훆쿂뻍튵뫍뢣샻ꆢ퇸샏튻쳥뮯뗄쳥훆쿠뇈,쫐뎡뮯룄룯뿉쓜뮹믡퓬돉샍뚯죋뿚뛔캴살풤웚늻좷뚨탔짏짽,틲뛸믡뛮췢뗘퓶볓뻓쏱뗄풤럀탔뒢탮ꆣ퓚릩룸랽쏦,튻랽쏦,평폚릩룸훷쳥뗄뇤,쫐뎡믺훆뛔볆뮮믺훆뗄좡듺ퟔ좻믡벫듳뗘듌벤춶;쇭튻랽,평폚튪쯘볛룱훰늽짏짽틔랴펳튪쯘뗄헦헽쫐뎡볛횵,뛸쟒,퓚룄룯맽돌훐,평폚쫐뎡믺훆짐캴췪짆,튪쯘볛룱뮹믡랢짺듳럹뛈얤쟺탔짏퇯,헢뻍붫떼훂릩룸돉놾ꆢ쓋훁춶뛮돶쿖뷏듳럹뛈뗄짏짽ꆣ쫐뎡뮯룄룯쯹닺짺뗄헢킩펰쿬,퓚튽쇆ꆢ뷌폽ꆢ퇸샏틔벰ퟮ뷼놻쳖싛뗃럐럐퇯퇯뗄힡햬컊쳢짏뚼뗃떽쇋돤럖뗄쳥쿖ꆣ컥ꆢ뺭볃쪧뫢:풭틲벰뛔닟ퟛ뫏틔짏럖컶뿉횪,룟뒢탮ꆢ룟춶뫍룟퓶뎤쫇컒맺죋뿚뷡릹뇤뮯ꆢ릤튵뮯뫍돇쫐뮯뷸돌쿠뮥웵뫏쯹닺짺뗄뇘좻뷡맻ꆣ본폚훐맺죔좻뒦폚죋뿚닎폫싊뷏룟쟒붫뎤웚돖탸뗄ힴ첬,본폚릤튵뮯뫍돇쫐뮯죔붫뎤웚릹돉훐맺뺭볃랢햹뗄믹놾쓚죝,컒쏇뇘탫죏쪶떽:룟뒢탮ꆢ룟춶뫍룟퓶뎤뗄ꆰ죽룟ꆱ룱뻖붫퓚컒맺뎤웚돖탸ꆣ펦떱쮵ꆰ,죽룟ꆱ퓙볓짏뷏뗍뗄춨믵엲헍싊,쫇튻훖뇈뷏샭쿫뗄퓶뎤ힴ첬ꆣ좻뛸,헢뻸늻틢캶ퟅ컒맺뺭볃췪쏀컞좱;쿠랴,뺭볃훐잱퓚뗄컊쳢쪼훕죃죋쓑틔쫍뮳ꆣ뻍듋,뷼쓪살맺쓚췢틑뺭폐쇋듳솿뗄퇐뺿,폐죋?늡룟춶,폐죋훊틉뎤웚쮳닮,뮹폐죋떣탄뺭볃뷡릹얤쟺,뗈뗈ꆣ퓚컒쏇뾴살,헢킩럖컶뚼뫜폐뗀샭,떫쯆뫵쪧횮잳뇭ꆣ헦헽벬쫖뗄컊쳢쫇컒맺뗄뒢탮싊뎤웚룟폚춶싊ꆪꆪꆪ뻙랲룟춶ꆢ룟쮳닮틔벰솬듸뗄쯹폐컊쳢,뷔웰풴폚듋ꆣ뒢탮뎤웚듳폚춶,훂쪹컒맺뎤웚뒦폚쓚늿쪧뫢뫍췢늿쪧뫢뗄뺳뗘ꆣ쓚늿쪧뫢뗄돖탸,쪹뗃컒쏇늻뗃늻틀삵룟춶살횧독뺭볃퓶뎤;뛸췢늿쪧뫢(뺭뎣쿮쒿쮳닮)뗄돖탸,퓲틽랢쇋폺퇝폺쇒뗄쎳틗쒦닁ꆢ욵랱뗄놾뿧뺳쇷뚯ꆢ룟뛮뗄췢믣뒢놸믽샛ꆢ틔벰죕틦볓훘뗄믣싊뗷헻톹솦ꆣ컊쳢뗄뢴퓓탔퓚폚,평폚퓬돉쯹폐헢킩컊쳢뗄룹풴퓚폚컒맺뒢탮싊맽룟,뛸뒢탮싊폖쫇평훮죧죋뿚뷡릹뇤뮯ꆢ릤튵뮯ꆢ돇쫐뮯틔벰뺭볃룄룯뗈뎤웚랢믓ퟷ폃뗄쪵쳥뺭볃틲쯘뫍쳥훆틲쯘떼훂,뛔폚쯼쏇뗄랢햹뇤뮯,컒쏇쫂쪵짏쓑폐뷏듳뗄ퟷ캪ꆣ볓횮,맺쓚뺭볃뗄쪧뫢놾훊짏쫇좫쟲뺭볃쪧뫢뗄뇭쿖,쯹틔,뷶뷶ퟅ퇛폚ퟔ탐뗷헻맺쓚뺭볃뷡릹,컒쏇쫂쪵짏튲쓑폐붨쫷ꆣ퓚컒쏇뾴살,헦헽탨튪뷢뻶뛸쟒컒쏇튲쓜릻뷢뻶뗄뷴웈컊쳢,쫇죵뮯룟춶뎤웚돖탸쯹듸살뗄늻샻뫳맻ꆣ퓚쿖듺쫐뎡뺭볃훐,뒢탮쿲춶뮯훷튪틀뾿뷰죚쳥쾵ꆣ틲듋,평춶싊뎤웚뗍폚뒢탮싊뛸틽랢뗄뺭볃쪧뫢뇘좻춬뷰죚쳥쾵듦퓚뗄좱쿝폐쏜쟐뗄맘쾵ꆣ컒쏇죏캪,틔틸탐볤뷓죚캪훷떼뗄뷰죚쳥쾵늻뷶쫇퓬돉춶싊뎤웚뗍폚뒢탮싊뗄훷튪풭틲,뛸쟒튲쫇떼훂춶뻧쇒늨뚯뫍뺭볃듳웰듳실뗄훷튪풭틲,뛸헢훖뻞럹뗄늨뚯믡볓뻧늻솼닺뗄랴뢴믽샛,췾킲뷰죚컈뚨ꆣ웤튻,듓퓋탐믺훆살뾴,틸탐듻뿮뗄펯쯵쳬좻쫇ꆰ쮳훜웚ꆱ뗄,틲뛸듦퓚ퟅ럅듳뺭볃늨뚯뗄쟣쿲:떱뺭볃삩헅쪱,퓚쪵쳥뺭볃쇬폲룟샻죳뗄폕틽쿂,틸탐듻뿮뿉쓜톸쯙엲헍,늢췆뚯뺭볃톸쯙ퟟ쿲맽죈;뛸퓚뺭볃뷴쯵쪱웚,춬퇹튲쫇쫜훆폚쪵쳥뺭볃쇬폲뗄웕뇩쮥췋,틸탐듻뿮튲믡볓쯙쫕쯵,듓뛸볓듳뺭볃뗄뷴쯵돌뛈ꆣ웤뛾,퓚뛔췢뾪럅쳵볾쿂,틸탐볤뷓죚캪훷뗄쳥쾵뮹믡닺짺믵뇒듭엤,듓뛸뛔믣싊헾닟뫍맺볊쫕횧닺짺펰쿬ꆣ쯹캽믵뇒듭엤횸뗄쫇,튻룶뺭볃탐캪훷쳥(웳튵ꆢ뻓쏱ꆢ헾뢮)퓚뷸탐맺볊붻췹쪱,평폚닺/뢺햮ꆢ쫕죫/횧돶쪹폃늻춬뗄믵뇒볆볛,믣싊뗄뇤뮯믡뛔웤닺뢺햮뇭닺짺펰쿬ꆣ퓚샺쪷32
짏,평폚뛠쫽랢햹훐맺볒뗄췢뇒닺풶킡폚웤췢뇒뢺햮,웤럧쿕웘슶폚놾뇒뗄뇡횵ꆣ훐맺떱잰뗄쟩뿶퓲쿠랴,평폚췢뇒닺듳폚췢뇒뢺햮,훐맺믵뇒듭엤뗄럧쿕퓲웘슶폚놾뇒뗄짽횵ꆪꆪꆪ헢믡떼훂틔놾뇒볆횵뗄췢뇒뺻닺쯵쮮ꆣ뻍헢훖ힴ뿶뛸퇔,훐맺쒿잰뗄믵뇒듭엤럧쿕폫죕놾뗄쟩탎룼캪뷓뷼ꆣ죏쪶떽틸탐볤뷓죚듦퓚짏쫶좱쿝,짏룶쫀볍80쓪듺틔살,쫀뷧룷맺뚼퓚얬솦퓶듳횱뷓죚,쿠뛔쯵킡볤뷓죚뗄뇈훘;퇇훞뷰죚캣믺룼볓쯙쇋헢튻뷸돌ꆣ좻뛸,퓚컒맺,쯤좻랢햹횱뷓죚퓧틑돉캪뎯튰뗄릲쪶,떫횱뷓죚뗄뇈훘훰쓪쿂붵,좴튲쫇늻헹뗄쫂쪵ꆣ헢훖ힴ뿶뗄뫳맻뻍쫇,뫪맛뗷뿘뗄좫늿늻샻뫳맻,벸뫵뚼틔늻솼닺뗄탎쪽샛믽퓚틸탐뗄닺뢺햮뇭훐ꆣ믹폚짏쫶럖컶,펦뛔횮닟뇣뫜쿔좻,헢뻍쫇:삩듳횱뷓죚뗄뇈훘,랢햹펵폐뎤웚뷰살풴뗄뷰죚믺릹,쫇룄뇤컒맺뒢탮폫춶웚쿞듭엤ꆢ믵뇒듭엤틔벰춶믮뚯훐럧쿕럖떣믺훆퇏훘쪧뫢뗄룹놾춾뺶ꆣ뻟쳥뛸퇔,퓚뷸튻늽뗄뷰죚룄룯훐,쫗쿈,펦떱듳솦랢햹막욱쫐뎡ꆢ햮좯쫐뎡(쳘뇰펦힢틢랢햹릫쮾햮좯쫐뎡틔벰폫쫐헾붨짨쿠맘뗄쫐헾햮좯쫐뎡)ꆢ믹뷰쫐뎡,틔뇣캪룷샠춶쳡릩뎤웚뷰;웤듎,펦떱듳솦랢햹훮죧놣쿕ꆢ퇸샏믹뷰뗈웵풼탍뷰죚믺릹틔벰쿱뾪랢틸탐횮샠펵폐뎤웚뷰살풴뗄뷰죚믺릹,틔뇣뷢뻶뷰죚믺릹뗄ꆰ뷨뛌폃뎤ꆱ뗄컊쳢;웤죽,펦떱듳솦췆탐뷰죚뒴탂,횧돖춨맽횤좯뮯(뗖톺듻뿮횤좯뮯뫍닺횤좯뮯)뗈랽쪽살뷢뻶뷰죚믺릹(쳘뇰쫇짌튵틸탐)뗄닺쇷뚯탔늻ퟣ컊쳢ꆣ훷튪닎뾼컄쿗:1.닌죕랽ꆶ:죋뿚뇤ꆢ죋뿚뫬샻폫퓶뎤뿉돖탸탔ꆷ,훐맺짧뿆풺뷰죚퇐뺿쯹ꆶ뷰죚싛첳ꆷ2004쓪2퓂2.샮퇯ꆢ틳붣럥ꆶ:샍뚯솦틆맽돌훐뗄룟뒢탮ꆢ룟춶뫍훐맺뺭볃퓶뎤ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ2005쓪뗚2웚ꆣ3.샮퇯ꆶ:훐맺뺭볃뛔췢뾪럅맽돌훐뗄뷰쇷뚯ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ1998쓪뗚2웚ꆣ4.샮퇯ꆶ:훐맺뷰죚룄룯퇐뺿ꆷ,붭쯕죋쏱돶냦짧1999쓪냦5.샮퇯ꆶ:뷰죚좫쟲뮯퇐뺿ꆷ,짏몣풶뚫돶냦짧1999쓪냦,,,WorldEconomicOutlook,Sep.,2005.퓰죎뇠벭:키ꆡ럥(짏뷓뗚15튳)쿂룼듳뗄웸솦췆뷸룄룯릥볡ꆣ뛔짦벰좫뻖뗄훘듳룄룯튪훜쏜싛횤,톭탲붥뷸,뇜쏢랴뢴ꆣ쳥훆룄룯뫍헾닟뗷헻,펦떱뺡뿉쓜놣돖잰뷸훐뗄컈뚨탔ꆣ(2)킭뗷탔뫍램훆뮯풭퓲ꆣ펦떱볡돖맡뎹떳뗄쪮쇹뷬죽훐좫믡뻶뚨뗄튪쟳,얬솦ퟶ떽뫪맛뺭볃룄룯뫍캢맛뺭볃룄룯쿠킭뗷,뺭볃쇬폲룄룯뫍짧믡쇬폲룄룯쿠킭뗷,돇쫐룄룯뫍얩듥룄룯쿠킭뗷,뺭볃쳥훆룄룯뫍헾훎쳥훆룄룯쿠킭뗷ꆣ뛔폚짦벰뛠늿쏅ꆢ뒥뚯짮닣샻틦룱뻖뗄맘볼탔룄룯,펦떱볓잿뿧늿쏅뗄ퟛ뫏탔퇐뺿뫍룟닣듎킭뗷,퓋폃뎬췑늿쏅샻틦뗄램싉쫖뛎췆뚯룄룯랽낸뗄쪵쪩,뇜쏢늿쏅뎶욤뫍뻃췏늻뻶ꆣ(3)웕믝믲릲쿭풭퓲ꆣ룄룯랽낸펦떱뺡뿉쓜쪹뛠쫽죋쫜틦,죃뛠쫽죋쳘뇰쫇짧믡욶삧죵쫆좺쳥쓜릻럖쿭룄룯듸살뗄돉맻ꆣ(4)뫏샭늹뎥풭퓲ꆣ뛔폚럇웕믝탔뗄룄룯뻙듫,탨튪쪹쫜쯰헟뗃떽뫏샭늹뎥,늹뎥뗄쿞뛈튪폐훺폚탋샻돽뇗,뇜쏢랴쿲뗷뷚ꆣ(5)릫릲닎폫풭퓲ꆣ뺡뿉쓜맣랺뗘컼쫕룷뷧릫훚닎폫룄룯랽낸뗄싛횤,냼삨샻틦쿠맘랽(웳튵ꆢ탐튵킭믡ꆢ쿻럑헟)뫍샻틦뎬췑랽(볒ꆢ짧믡릫훚ꆢ폟싛쎽뷩)뗄듺뇭,쳘뇰펦떱맘힢욶삧죵쫆좺쳥뗄샻틦쯟쟳,틔뎬췑늿쏅샻틦믲잿쫆벯췅샻틦뗄쿁낯퇛뷧,럀횹룄룯놻얤쟺믲쇷폚탎쪽ꆣ훷튪닎뾼컄쿗:1.ꆶ훐릲훐퇫맘폚릹붨짧믡훷틥뫍킳짧믡죴룉훘듳컊쳢뗄뻶뚨ꆷ;2.ꆶ훐릲훐퇫맘폚훆뚨맺쏱뺭볃뫍짧믡랢햹뗚쪮튻룶컥쓪맦뮮뗄붨틩ꆷ;3.췵쏎뿼훷뇠ꆶ:훐맺:뺭볃랢햹폫짧믡뫍킳ꆷ,죋쏱돶냦짧2006쓪냦;4.췵쏎뿼훷뇠ꆶ:훐맺훐뎤웚랢햹뗄훘튪컊쳢,2006ꆪ2020ꆷ,훐맺랢햹돶냦짧2005쓪냦;5.췵쏎뿼ꆢ슽냙뢦ꆢ슬훐풭ꆶ:훐맺뺭볃뗄뷗뛎탔뇤뮯ꆢ잰뺰햹췻뫍헾닟좡쿲ꆷꆶ,맜샭쫀뷧ꆷ2002쓪뗚9웚;6.슬훐풭ꆶ:ꆰ쪮튻컥ꆱ웚볤춳돯뺭볃짧믡랢햹뗄벸뗣쮼뾼ꆷꆶ,뺭볃톧뚯첬ꆷ2005쓪뗚9웚;7.슬훐풭ꆶ:ꆰ쪮튻컥ꆱ웚볤떽2020쓪랢햹햽싔첽쳖ꆷꆶ,룄룯ꆷ2005쓪뗚1웚;8.솪뫏맺뾪랢볆뮮쫰ꆢ훐맺랢햹퇐뺿믹뷰믡ꆶ:훐맺죋샠랢햹놨룦2005:ힷ쟳릫욽뗄죋샠랢햹ꆷ,훐맺뛔췢랭틫돶냦릫쮾2005쓪냦;9.쫀뷧틸탐ꆶ:훐맺:췆뚯릫욽뗄뺭볃퓶뎤ꆷ,쟥뮪듳톧돶냦짧2004쓪냦;10.쫀뷧틸탐ꆶ:2005쓪쫀뷧랢햹놨룦:룄짆춶뮷뺳,듙쪹죋죋쫜틦ꆷ,쟥뮪듳톧돶냦짧2005쓪냦ꆣ퓰죎뇠벭:키ꆡ럥33
AbstractsofSomePapersinEnglishAnAnalysisofMacro2economicSituationandRegulationPolicyCONGMing(StateAdministrationofTaxation,100038)Themacro2economicsituationin2006hasbeenbasicallyfavorable;,,theeconomyisstilloverheat2ed;inthelongterm,thestructuralproblemisbecomingmoresevere,:continuingstablemacro2economicregu2lation,properlyadjustingtheaggregatescale,strivingtoimproveeconomicstructure,combiningbothshorttermandlongtermregulationwithinstitutionalreform,:EconomicSituation,Macro2EconomicRegulation,EconomicPolicySomeIssuesinConstructingaHarmoniousSocietyLUZhongyuan(DevelopmentResearchCentre,StateCouncil,100010)Thispapertriestoanalyzefrombothsocialandeconomicfieldstheoutstandingissuesandproblemsweareconfrontedwithinconstructingoursocialistharmonioussociety,:HarmoniousSociety,OutstandingIssues,PolicyOptionsTheRouteofChineseEconomicGrowth,BigCountryEffectandtheTransitionofEconomicPatternZHANGPing,ZHAOZhijun(InstituteofEconomics,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences,100836)ThispaperanalyzesthelogicandmechanismofChinaꆯseconomicgrowthpattern,andexplainsthetransitionprocessoftechnicalprogressfromgreatdevelopmentofvillageandtownshipenterprisestomanufactureindus2try,,,withChinagrowingfromasmallclosedeconomytoalargeopeneconomy,abigcountryef2fectappearsandtheolddevelopmentcouldnotlastlong,,somepolicy2relevantsuggestionsthathelptoavoidꆰadjustmentꆱ:GrowthPattern,TechnicalProgress,BigCountryEffect,GovernmentInterventionChinaꆯsHighSaving,HighInvestment,andHighGrowthLIYang,YINJianfengandCHENHongbo(InstituteofFinanceandBanking,CASS,100732)Thepaperfocusesontheanalysisofthecausesunderlyingthehighsavingrate,highinvestmentrate,,industrialization,urbanization,,:Saving,Investment,PopulationBonus,Industrialization,Urbanization,EconomicReformWhyChinaShouldKeepitsExchangeRatePeggedtotheDollar:AHistoricalPerspectivefromJapanRonaldMcKinnon(StanfordUniversity),2005,andhasonlyallowedasmall,tightlycontrolled,ꆯsproductivitygrowthhasbeenveryhighrelativetomostothercountries,itstradesurplushasbeenrising,ꆰChinabashingꆱꆯstradesurplus,thethreatthereofwillreducenominalinterestrates2ashappenedintheearliererafrom1978to1995ofꆰJapanbashingꆱ,coupledwithazero2interestliquiditytrap,ledtoJapanꆯsꆰlostdecadeꆱof128
