샍뚯럖릤뗄웰풴뫍훆풼ꎭ듓쮹쏜삧뺳떽맣틥쮹쏜풭샭???돂욽??뺭볃톧ꎨ벾뾯ꎩꎬ?뗚?뻭ꎬ뗚?웚ꎨ㈰〲쓪?퓂ꎩ??햪튪??ꆰ쮹쏜삧뺳ꆱ횸쮹쏜샭싛ꎨ뾴늻볻뗄쫖ꎩ폫쮹쏜뚨샭ꎨ샍뚯럖릤쫜떽쫐뎡맦쒣뗄쿞훆ꎩ늻쓜볦죝ꆣ놾컄폃짺첬컄뮯뗄럇쿟탔뚯솦톧쒣탍쏨킴쫐뎡뺺헹뫍샍뚯럖릤ꆣ쮹쏜삧뺳뿉틔폃컈뚨탔뫍뢴퓓탔횮볤뗄쿻뎤맘쾵살뷢쫍ꆣꆰ맣틥쮹쏜풭샭ꆱꎬ벴샍뚯럖릤쫜쫐뎡맦쒣ꎬ풴훖샠ꎬ뫍뮷뺳헇실뗄죽훘쿞훆ꎬ뿉뷢쫍샺쪷짏샍뚯럖릤랢햹뗄뛠퇹탔ꆣ ? *놱뺩듳톧훐맺뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄뫍뗂뿋죸쮹듳톧웕샯룟뷲춳볆솦톧뫍뢴퓓쾵춳퇐뺿훐탄ꆣ춨탅뗘횷ꎺ놱뺩쫐놱뺩듳톧훐맺뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄ꎬ 100871, 뗧뮰ꎺ(010) 6275-4801, Email: pchen@. 놾컄캪퇏뢴랭틫퇇떱ꆤ쮹쏜ꆶ풭뢻ꆷ냙쓪볍쓮뛸ퟷꆣ룐벤⁉汹愠偲楧潧楮攠뷌쫚뛔컒튻맡뗄횧돖뫍럅죎ꎬ쪹컒퓚퇏뷷톧뢮훐폐쓑뗃뗄ퟔ평뛈ꎬ뗃틔탄퇐뺿뺭볃톧뗄믹놾컊쳢ꆣ컒훔탄룐킻䭵?琠䑯灦敲뷌?쫚퓊탭컒쪹폃붣쟅돶냦짧벴붫돶냦뗄ꆶ뺭볃톧뗄퇝뮯풭샭ꆷ튻쫩훐놾죋룥뗄늿럖쓚죝ꆣ룐킻健瑥爠䅬汥測⁋畲琠䑯灦敲ꎬ?慭敳⁇慬扲慩瑨?⁁湤牥眠剥慴椬?坡汴?副獴潷??Immanuel Wallersteinꎬ믆ퟚ훇ꎬ쯯맣헲ꎬ쇖틣럲ꎬ퇮킡뾭ꎬ뫍틑맊뗄䡥牢敲琠卩浯渠룸컒뗄벫뢻웴랢뗄쳖싛ꆣퟮ뫳ꎬퟷ헟뛔훐맺ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰믡뛔컒릤ퟷ뗄훺뇭쪾킻틢ꆣ? 1
쓚죝쳡튪???⠱?틽싛??⠲?풴쿞훆ꎬ쫐뎡럝뛮ꎬ뫍튻캬싟벭쮹뗙퓶뎤쒣탍??⠳?풴훘뗾ꎬ뚯첬뻹뫢ꎬ뫍뛾캬뺺헹쒣탍?⠳⸱⤠뺺헹업돽풭샭ꎬ훖좺쫽뫍풴쫽쿠뗈뗄퇰쏽?⠳⸲⤠닺튵룯쏼뫍돉뎤뷗뛎??⠴?쏦쇙탂벼쫵뫍탂쫐뎡쪱뗄컄뮯쟣쿲??럧쿕욫뫃뗄튻캬닎쫽?⠴⸱?풴뷚풼탍컄뮯ꎬ풴쿻뫄탍컄뮯ꎬ뫍쟇얬ꎭ컖샖쮹첹퇰쏽?⠴⸲?뮷뺳헇실뛔쫐뎡맣뛈뫍컈뚨탔뗄펰쿬??⠵?톧쾰뺺헹ꎬ샍뚯럖릤ꎬ뫍뛠풪짧믡뗄컈뚨탔컊쳢?⠵⸱?룏뎬햽싔뫍태뇋쳘뗄뒴탂뺫짱?⠵???뺺헹릲듦뗄쳵볾뫍뢴퓓쾵춳뗄뛠퇹탔?⠵???뢴퓓탔퇰쏽ꎭ뢴퓓탍뫍컈뚨탔뗄쿻뎤⡴牡摥?潦昩맘쾵??⠵⸴?뢴퓓쾵춳뫍탍뺭볃??⠶?샍뚯럖릤뗄죽훘훆풼뫍맣틥쮹쏜풭샭?⠶⸱?웳튵맦쒣뗝퓶뗄쓚퓚훆풼ꎭ뢴퓓탔틽웰뗄뷡릹늻컈뚨탔?⠶⸲?컄뮯쟣쿲ꎬ캤늮쏼쳢ꎬ뫍샮풼즪컊쳢?⠶⸳?짧믡퇝뮯ꎬ퇇컈첬ꎬ뫍뾪럅쾵춳??⠷?뷡싛ꎺ샍뚯럖릤랢햹뗄뢴퓓탔뫍짧믡퇝뮯뗄뛠퇹탔???훂킻??닎뾼컄쿗??2
䤮틽싛??뷱쓪쫇퇏뢴랭틫퇇떱ꆤ쮹쏜ꆶ풭뢻ꆷ뗄튻냙훜쓪볍쓮ꆣ퇏뢴뗄릤ퟷ뇪횾ퟅ훐맺뷼듺뺭볃톧뗄뾪뛋?쮹쏜훸ꎬ퇏뢴틫Ⱐㄹ〲?ꆣ?퇇떱ꆤ쮹쏜뗄퇐뺿쫇듓샍뚯럖릤뗄틢틥뫍믺훆뾪쪼뗄ꆣ십뿋쮼뫍뛷룱쮹퓚릲닺떳탻퇔훐ꎬ룟뛈움볛쇋샍뚯럖릤ꥰ믺웷짺닺ꥰ뫍쫀뷧쫐뎡퓚놾훷틥뺭볃랢햹훐뗄ퟷ폃?십뿋쮼뫍뛷룱쮹‱㠴??ꆣ훐맺랢햹샍뚯럖릤뗄샺쪷튲뫜퓧ꆣ샽죧ꎬ훐맺쪹폃횽뇒뗄샺쪷뻍퓧폚컷얷ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ돽쇋펢맺뫍쏀맺뗄랢햹뗀슷뇈뷏뷓뷼퇇떱ꆤ쮹쏜ꆰ뾴늻볻뗄쫖ꆱ뗄훷헅횮췢ꎬ뫳웰뗄놾훷틥맺볒죧램맺ꥰ뗂맺ꥰ죕놾ꎬ뫍탂탋뗄짧믡훷틥맺볒죧쯕솪ꥰ훐맺ꎬ뚼퓚늻춬돌뛈짏쪵탐쇋맺볒놾훷틥ꎬ벴ꆰ뾴뗃볻뗄쫖ꆱꆣ듓컥쯄퓋뚯떽룄룯뾪럅잰뗄뎤쪱웚훐ꎬ훐맺횪쪶럖ퟓ뗄맘뮳벯훐퓚첽쳖훐맺뗄짧믡탔훊뫍뢻맺잿뇸횮뗀짏ꎬ뛔샍뚯럖릤랢햹뗄틢틥뫍춾뺶뫜짙힢틢ꆣ듳쿴쳵뫳닺짺뗄뾭뛷쮹뺭볃톧엉튲퓚쫐뎡뺭볃뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ듳듳볓잿쇋헾뢮뛔쫐뎡뗄룉풤ꆣ횱떽뛾쪮쫀볍냋쪮쓪듺ꎬ듳헾뢮뗄뻖쿞닅훰붥캪룷맺죏쪶ꆣ룷맺뺺쿠랢웰복짙헾뢮룉풤ꎬ볓잿쫐뎡뺺헹뗄룄룯ꎬ퓚쒳훖돌뛈짏믖뢴쇋뛔쮹쏜ꆰ뾴늻볻뗄쫖ꆱ뗄샭싛뗄탋좤ꆣ컒쏇늻뷶튪컊ꎬ캪뫎룷맺샍뚯럖릤랢햹뗄뗀슷믡폐죧듋듳뗄닮뻠ꎿ듓퓧웚얩튵짧믡뗄샍뚯럖릤ꎬ떽춨쿲닺튵룯쏼뗄뗀슷ꎬ샍뚯럖릤뗄믺훆뫍훆풼뺿뺹쫇쪲쎴ꎿ?솽룶샺쪷컊쳢컼틽쇋컒쏇뛔튻룶샭싛컊쳢뗄힢틢ꎺ튻쫇캪쪲쎴놾훷틥웰풴폚컷얷뛸럇훐맺믲웤쯻컄쏷ꎿ헢뻍쫇훸쏻뗄샮풼즪컊쳢ꎻ뛾쫇캪쪲쎴훐맺킡얩뺭볃ퟔ룸ퟔퟣ뗄뒫춳죧듋짮뫱ꎬ횱떽컄뮯룯쏼쎫퓳뚫뮹튪쳡뎫ꆰ컥웟뗀슷ꆱꎬ튪쟳쎿룶죋ꆰ틠릤틠얩틠뻼ꆱꎬ쫔춼쳴햽샍뚯럖릤뗄쫀뷧뎱쇷ꎿ?헢솽룶컊쳢뚼뫍컒쏇ퟅ훘튪쳖싛뗄뗚죽룶컊쳢쿠솪쾵ꎬ벴쮹뗙룱샕랢쿖뗄쮹쏜삧뺳ꆣ퇇떱ꆤ쮹쏜폐솽룶훸쏻뗄샭싛ꎺ튻놻돆ퟷꆰ쮹쏜샭싛ꆱ?Smith Theory?ꆰ뾴늻볻뗄쫖ꆱꎬ벴췪좫뺺헹뗄뗄쫐뎡ꎻ쇭튻룶쫇쯹캽뗄ꆰ쮹쏜뚨샭ꆱ?Smith Theorem?ꎬ벴샍뚯럖릤쫜떽쫐뎡맦쒣뗄쿞훆?卭楴栠ㄷ㜶?ꆣ컊쳢쫇뷓뷼쫐뎡벫쿞쪱뻍닺짺슢뛏ꎬ뛸슢뛏뫍ꆰ뾴늻볻뗄쫖ꆱ쫇뛔솢뗄ꆣ헢뻍쫇쮹뗙룱샕횸돶뗄ꆰ쮹쏜삧뺳ꆱ?Smith Dilemma?ꎬ벴쮹쏜샭싛폫쮹쏜뚨샭솽헟늻쓜볦죝?却楧汥爠ㄹ㔱?ꆣ헢죽룶컊쳢뗄뫋탄쫇샍뚯럖릤뗄믺훆뫍풼쫸컊쳢ꆣ?맅뗤뺭볃톧뗄뗬믹죋십킪뛻퓸뺭횸돶ꎬ뺭볃톧룼뷓뷼폚짺컯톧뛸럇솦톧ꎻ떫쫇짺컯톧뇈솦톧뢴퓓ꎬ맊횻뫃닉폃솦톧뗄샠뇈ꎬ떫튪샎볇짺컯톧뗄맛쓮ꎨMarshall 1920ꎩꆣ죽쪮쓪듺뾪쪼뗄쫽샭뺭볃톧ꎬ퓸뺭춬쪱뷨본쇋솦톧뫍짺컯톧뗄솽훖탎쪽ꎺ솦톧뷨폃쇋맾쏜뛙쳥쾵 (Hamiltonian system) 뗄폅뮯탎쪽ꎻ짺컯톧퓲닉폃쇋샭싛짺첬톧뗄뚯솦톧랽돌ꎬ냼삨싟벭쮹뗙(logistic) 쒣탍 뫍Lotka-Volterra쒣탍ꆣ맾쏜뛙쳥쾵퓚쏨킴킱싊캪뢺뗄탨쟳쟺쿟짏믱뗃맣랺펦폃ꎬ돉캪캢맛볛룱샭싛뗄믹놾쒣탍ꆣ웳튵뫍짧쟸샍뚯럖릤뗄맦쒣뿉쓜쫜떽붻틗돉놾뫍킭ퟷ돉놾뗄쿞훆?Yang and Borland 1991ꎬBecker and Murphy 1992?ꆣ떫쫇폅뮯쒣탍뗄쳘뗣쫇퇝뮯뗄떥쿲탔ꎬ쓑틔뷢쫍뮷뺳헇실쿂뛠퇹퇝뮯뗄쿖쪵ꆣ폃횪쪶믽샛떼훂뗄맦쒣뗝퓶살뷢쫍샍뚯럖릤뗄뚯솦ꎬ뫶싔쇋벼쫵룯쏼뗄탂돂듺킻맽돌(Arrow 1962, Romer 1986)ꆣ늻뾼싇뮷뺳헇실뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎬ뻍믡냑샍뚯럖릤뾴돉욽뮬뗄퓶뎤맽돌ꎬ헢뻍컞램샭뷢태뇋쳘뗄뒴퓬탔믙쏰뫍웳튵볒뺫짱ꎬ틔벰닺튵뗄짺쏼훜웚뫍뺭볃늨뚯ꆣ 3
뫀죸뿋횸돶ꎬ퇇떱ꆤ쮹쏜틔캪횻폐죋샠닅폐샍뚯럖릤쫇늻헽좷뗄ꎬ쯻췼볇쇋뗈짧믡짺컯죧심틏뫍쏛럤뗈튲폐샍뚯럖릤ꆣ죋샠짧믡뗄샍뚯럖릤쒣탍뿉틔뷨본짺컯톧뗄컯훖뺺헹쒣탍(Houthakker 1956, Nicolis and Prigogine 1977)ꆣ퓚헢욪컄헂샯ꎬ컒쏇랢햹샭싛짺첬톧뗄폐쿞퓶뎤쒣탍뫍컯훖뺺헹쒣탍ꎬ퇐뺿짺첬풼쫸쿂럇쿟탔뚯솦톧쾵춳뗄컈뚨뫍퇝뮯컊쳢ꎬ틔샭뷢퇇떱ꆤ쮹쏜뗄믹놾쏼쳢ꎺ샍뚯럖릤뗄웰풴뫍훆풼ꆣ 놾컄폃싟벭쮹뗙쒣탍살쏨킴풴폐쿞뗄닺튵퓶뎤ꎬ폃훖좺뺺헹쒣탍살쏨킴풴뫍쫐뎡럝뛮뗄뺺헹ꆣ컒쏇틽죫톧쾰뺺헹훐뗄컄뮯뫍탐캪틲쫽ꎬ벴쏦쇙늻쫬쾤뗄탂벼쫵탂풴쪱ꎬ쫇닉좡쎰쿕쿈뷸뮹쫇맛췻듓훚뗄탄첬ꎬ살쳖싛늻춬컄뮯뗄좺쳥뛔샍뚯럖릤랢햹쟷쫆뗄펰쿬ꆣ컒쏇폃늻춬벼쫵뗄쳦뮻믲릲듦맘쾵ꎬ살쳖싛샍뚯럖릤쿲뛠풪뮯랢햹뗄쳵볾ꆣ쮹쏜삧뺳뿉틔폃쾵춳뗄컈뚨탔뫍뢴퓓탔횮볤뗄쿻뎤맘쾵(trade-off)살뷢쫍ꆣ컒쏇쳡돶맣틥뗄쮹쏜풭샭ꎬ벴샍뚯럖릤쫜쫐뎡맦쒣ꥰ풴훖샠ꥰ뫍뮷뺳헇실뗄쿞훆ꆣ럇쿟탔뚯솦톧퓚뮷뺳헇실쿂뗄뺺헹쒣탍뿉틔쏨킴뺭볃톧뗄죴룉믹놾맛쓮ꎬ샽죧쮹쏜뗄쫐뎡맦쒣ꥰ뾵뗂삭쳝튮럲뎤늨ꥰ싞쮹췐뗄돉뎤뷗뛎ꥰ쓍쳘뗄늻좷뚨탔ꥰ태뇋쳘뗄웳튵볒뺫짱ꥰ뫍캤늮뗄놣쫘컄뮯뗈맛달ꆣ뢴퓓쾵춳뿆톧뿉폃폚뷢쫍키얬ꎭ컖샕쮹첹퇰쏽뫍샮풼즪컊쳢ꆣ샍뚯럖릤랢햹뗄뢴퓓탔뫍짧믡퇝뮯뗄늻뛔돆탔ꎬ뿉틔폃뾪럅쾵춳쿂짺쏼폐믺쳥뗄ퟔퟩ횯맽돌살샭뷢ꆣ 컒쏇뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ샍뚯럖릤뗄뺺헹믺훆뫍짺첬풼쫸쫇샭뷢떱듺퇝뮯뺭볃톧죴룉믹놾컊쳢뗄맘볼ꆣ볲떥ퟩ횯뫍뢴퓓ퟩ횯릲듦뗄맘볼퓚컈뚨탔뫍뢴퓓탔횮볤뗄쿻뎤맘쾵ꎬ헢짦벰떽뢴퓓뿆톧뛔뺭볃뢴퓓탔뗄퇐뺿⡃桥渠ㄹ㠷?돂욽㈰〰?ꆣ??⠲?풴쿞훆ꎬ쫐뎡럝뛮ꎬ뫍튻캬싟벭쮹뗙퓶뎤쒣탍?퓚탂맅뗤캢맛뺭볃톧훐횻뾼싇풤쯣뗄뷰폐쿞ꆣ컒쏇뷸튻늽뾼싇ퟔ좻풴폐쿞뫍죋뿚맦쒣폐쿞떼훂뗄쫐뎡맦쒣뗄쿞훆ꆣ벼쫵뷸늽뿉틔놻뾴ퟷ쫇튻룶탅쾢삩즢뗄맽돌ꆣ퓚튻룶쎻폐벯훐뗄뒴탂살풴뗄럖즢뮯쫐뎡훐ꎬ컒쏇틽뷸ꎱ캬뗄싟벭쮹뗙?⡬潧楳瑩挩?퓶뎤쒣탍⡂慲瑨潬潭??‱㤸㈩ꎺ??dn=f(n)=kn(N−n)−Rn=kn(N*−n) (1a) dt n*=N*=NR− (1b) k 헢샯ꎬt 쫇쪱볤ꎬ n(t) 쫇죋뿚믲헟닺돶ꎻN 쫇쳘뚨풴뗄뢺퓘쓜솦믲닺돶짏쿞ꎬ쯼놾짭쫇쿠펦벼쫵뗄몯쫽ꎬ뛔춬퇹뗄ퟔ좻풴뛸퇔ꎬ룼룟뗄벼쫵뛔펦ퟅ룼룟뗄닺돶짏쿞ꎻk 쫇뷸죫헢튻벼쫵쇬폲쪱죋뿚믲닺돶뗄퓶뎤싊ꎬR 쫇쳔청싊ꆣ 릫쪽ꎨ?ꎩ살ퟔ⁖敲桵汳琠폚ㄸ㌶쓪쳡돶뗄풴쿞훆뗄죋뿚퓶뎤쒣탍ꎬ쯼퓚샭싛짺컯톧뫍믬컯샭톧훐폐훘튪뗄뗘캻⡍慹‱㤷㐬⁄慹‱㤹?ꎬ䍨敮‱㤹㈩ꆣN*쫇풴쿞훆쿂듯떽뗄컈첬죋뿚믲컈첬닺돶ꆣ쪵볊짏ꎬ샭싛짺첬톧ꎬ쫽샭짧믡톧ꎬ뺭볃죋샠톧ꎬ뫍쾵춳뚯솦톧뚼퓧틑맣랺뗘퓋폃싟벭쮹뗙퓶뎤뗄룅쓮뫍쒣탍살쏨킴짺첬믲풴풼쫸뛔죋뿚퓶뎤뗄쿞훆ꎨ偩慮歡‱㤷㠬⁂慲瑨潬潭敷‱㤸㈬⁎慲潴硫礠ㄹ㤷Ⱐ4
䵥慤潷猠整氮ㄹ㜲ꎩꆣ볙죧풴캪컞쟮듳ꎬ퓲컒쏇뗃떽춨뎣뗄횸쫽퓶뎤쒣탍ꎬ샽죧뺭볃톧훐뗄십뛻죸쮹죋뿚퓶뎤쒣탍뫍쯷싥뗄탂맅뗤퓶뎤쒣탍ꎨ䵡汴桵猠ㄷ㤸Ⱐ卯汯眠ㄹ㔶ꎩꆣ?볙죧컒쏇뗄컊쳢쫇쏨킴닺튵톧쾰탂벼쫵뗄맽돌ꎬ믲헟웳튵뛔탂탋쫐뎡럝뛮뗄뺺헹맽돌ꎬ퓲쫐뎡뗄맦쒣뿉틔폃죋뿚믲닺돶뗄맦쒣 N 살쏨쫶ꆣn 쫇헆컕쇋탂벼쫵뗄쿈뷸헟믲틑횪헟뗄쫽솿ꎬ튲벴틑햼쇬뗄쫐뎡럝뛮ꎬꎨN-nꎩ쫇뫳톧헟믲캴횪헟뗄쫽솿ꎬ튲벴캴햼쇬뗄쫐뎡럝뛮ꆣ k 뫍 R 뇭쪾톧쾰뗄믱뗃싊뫍틅췼싊ꆣ헢룶랽돌뗄뷢쫇S탎쟺쿟ꎬ쫐뎡맦쒣믲풴짏쿞캪 N*ꆣ 퓚튻뚨뗄샺쪷쳵볾쿂ꎬ쫐뎡맦쒣 N 쫇틑폐벼쫵ꆢ죋뿚ꆢ풴쿞뛈ꆢ볛룱뫍돉놾뷡릹뗄몯쫽ꆣ컒쏇헢샯쫐뎡맦쒣뗄룅쓮ꎬ틑뺭냼삨쇋붻틗돉놾뫍킭ퟷ돉놾뗄뾼싇ꎬ늻뷶쫇ퟜ죋뿚뗄룅쓮ꆣ샽죧ꎬ쯤좻쟥듺훐맺틑뺭듯떽ꎴ틚죋뿚ꎬ떫떱쪱훐맺뗄짌욷쫐뎡뻖쿞폚뿉틔춨몽뗄뫓쇷뿚낶뫍훷튪뗀뺭맽뗄뗘쟸ꆣ뗘쟸쫐뎡쫜ퟔ좻쳵볾뫍짧믡쳵볾뗄쿞훆ꎬ췹췹쫇럖룮뛸럇춳튻뗄 쫐뎡ꆣ춨톶릤뻟뗄좱랦쪹듳늿럖즽쟸뻓쏱뒦퓚짌욷쫐뎡횮췢ꆣ횻폐탞붨쇋쿖듺쳺슷ꎬ릫슷ꎬ랢햹쇋뗧뮰ꎬ뗧놨뗈춨톶췸싧횮뫳ꎬ쫐뎡맦쒣닅벱뻧삩듳ꆣ헾뢮뫍쇷춨훐뷩ퟩ횯맜샭벼쫵뗄쳡룟ꎬ튲뛔쫐뎡맦쒣폐쿠떱뗄펰쿬ꆣ떫ퟮ훷튪뗄쿞훆살횮뺭볃뗄훷떼닺튵쯹틀삵뗄ퟔ좻풴ꆣ틔얩튵뛸싛ꎬ믹놾쿞훆쫇뿉룻뗘뗄쫽솿ꆣ닉폃뿳컯쓜풴ꎬ퓲좡뻶폚쿠펦뗄뿳컯풴ꎬ웤듳킡쫇떱쪱벼쫵쮮욽뗄몯쫽ꆣ죎뫎쪱듺뗄짺닺벼쫵뚼폐쯼뗄쫐뎡벫쿞ꆣ쿖듺뺭볃뗄쳘헷뿉틔폃튻쾵쇐뗄뒴탂쫂볾살뇭쪾ꎬ쎿튻룶뒴탂붫쫐뎡뗄맦쒣쳡짽떽튻룶탂뗄첨뷗ꆣ 싟벭쮹뗙쟺쿟폐ퟅ뇤뮯뗄맦쒣놨돪싊ꎨ쿈뗝퓶뛸뫳뗝복ꎩꆣ듓랽돌ꎨꎱꎩ뿉볻ꎬ몯쫽 f(n) 뗄튻뷗떼쫽떱 n<N쪱ꎬ컒쏇폐f'>0ꆣꏓ탎 쟺쿟뗄맕뗣쫇 N*n=ꎬ룃뗣뗄뛾뷗떼쫽Nf''=0ꆣ떱* 0<n<쪱ꎬf''>0ꎬ퓶뎤캪킧틦뗝퓶, 22뛸N* n> 쪱ꎬf''<0ꎬ캪킧틦뗝복ꆣ뿉볻ꎬ탂맅뗤캢맛뺭볃톧뛔짺닺몯쫽떥뗷2탔뫍낼몯쫽뗄튪쟳ꎬ늻쓜쏨킴폐쿞퓶뎤맦쒣뇤뮯뗄쟩탎ꆣ헢쫇캪쪲쎴컒쏇쳸돶캢맛뺭볃톧짺닺몯쫽뗄뻖쿞ꎬ룄폃샭싛짺첬톧뗄뿲볜ꎬ살쳖싛퇝뮯뺭볃톧뗄믹놾컊쳢ꎬ컒쏇뗄틢춼퓚뷢뻶쮹쏜삧뺳ꆣ???(3)풴훘뗾ꎬ뚯첬뻹뫢ꎬ뫍뛾캬뺺헹쒣탍 떱듺샍뚯럖릤뗄쳘헷냼삨맦쒣뺭볃뫍랶캧뺭볃ꎨ䍨慮摬敲‱㤹ꎩ?ꆣ컒쏇뿉틔듓ꎱ캬뗄쏨쫶닺튵뺭볃맦쒣뗄싟벭쮹뗙쒣탍ꎬ췆맣떽′?캬뗄Lotka-Volterra?쒣탍ꎬ폃샭싛짺첬톧훐뺺헹랽돌ퟩ뗄뇤솿쫽쒿살쏨킴뫡쿲럖릤뗄돌뛈뫍뺭볃뗄랶캧ꆣ떱솽룶훖좺믲닺튵뺺헹훘뗾뗄풴쪱ꎬ폐죧쿂뗄뺺헹랽돌?(Nicolis & Prigogine 1977, Murray 1989)ꎺ??dn1=k11n1(N1−n1−bn2)−R1n1=11(NRkn1−−n1−bn2) (2a) dtk15
dn2=2k2n2(N2−n2−bn1)−R2n2=22(NRkn2−−n2−bn1)?dtk2?헢샯n1ꎬn2럖뇰쫇훖좺?뫍훖좺?뗄죋뿚믲닺돶솿ꎻ?1 뫍?2 럖뇰뇭쪾룷ퟔ풴뗄뢺퓘쓜솦ꎻ?1뫍k2쫇쯼쏇뗄퓶뎤싊ꎻ?1 뫍?2쫇쯼쏇뗄틝돶싊ꎻb?쫇풴훘뗾쾵쫽( 0 ≤ b ≤ 1 )ꆣ틽죫폐킧풴뢺퓘솿C=NR−iꎬ⠲愩?뿉볲뮯캪⠲䈩ꎺ? iikidn1=k1n1(C1−n1−bn2) (2b) dtdn2=k2n2(C2−n2−bn1) dt 떱?b 캪쇣뗄쪱뫲ꎬ뺺헹늻듦퓚?솽룶훖좺뚼퓶뎤떽룷ퟔ풴뢺퓘죝탭뗄ퟮ듳벫쿞N1뫍N2ꆣ떱?b 늻캪쇣쪱ꎬ쯼쏇뿉쓜릲듦ꎬ튲뿉쓜튻룶쳦뮻쇭튻룶ꆣ솽룶훖좺뺺헹뗄뷡맻틀삵폚릫쪽훐뗄닎쫽뫍돵쪼쳵볾ꆣ 탎쪽캪⠲戩뗄뺺헹랽돌쫇짺컯톧볒?䱯瑫愠뫍?噯汴敲牡?럖뇰폚ㄹ㈰뫍ㄹ㈶쓪쳡돶뗄ꆣ뺭볃톧볒퓸폃쯼살쏨킴뫪맛뗄퓶뎤늨뚯
䝯潤睩渠ㄹ㔵Ⱐ䭡汤潲‱㤵㜩ꆣ컒쏇폃쯼살쏨킴훐맛
浥獯散潮潭楣⤠뗄맦쒣뫍랶캧뺭볃닣듎뗄쫐뎡뺺헹?룶죋횻쫇훖좺뗄튻럖ퟓꆣ틲캪샍뚯럖릤쫇뷩폚캢맛뫍뫪맛횮볤닺튵뷡릹뗄컊쳢ꎬ늻횻쫇쫇룶죋톡퓱뗄컊쳢ꆣ?컒쏇뿉틔냑솽룶뇤솿췆맣떽뛠룶뇤솿뗄쟩탎ꆣ퓚튻룶펵폐?룶샠탍뗄짺첬쾵춳훐ꎬ풴뗄뢺퓘쓜솦럖뇰쫇N1ꎬN2ꎬꎮꎮꎮꎮꎮꎮNLꎬ쿔좻쫐뎡?뗄맦쒣뿉틔폃풴뢺퓘솿?Ni 살뇭쪾ꎬ쫐뎡뗄랶캧뿉틔폃훖좺뗄룶쫽L 살뇭쪾ꆣN?뫍?L?뫏퓚튻웰뻍뿉쏨킴뺭볃뗄맦쒣뫍랶캧ꆣ???⠳⸱⤠뺺헹업돽풭샭ꎬ훖좺쫽뫍풴쫽쿠뗈뗄퇰쏽?컒쏇살쟳훖좺ꎱ놻훖좺ꎲ쯹좡듺뗄쳵볾ꎺ??bNR−2R1(2)=bC2>C1=(N1−) (3) k2k1?폅쪤헟뗄쳵볾쫇뻟폐룼룟뗄풴뢺퓘솿ꎬ룼룟뗄퓶뎤싊ꎬ믲룼킡뗄틝돶싊ꆣ헢킩쳘뗣춬퇹뿉틔쏨킴벼쫵뺺헹ꆣ?떱bꎽꎱ쪱ꎬ횻폐튻룶훖좺뿉틔듦퓚ꆣ헢뇣쫇샭싛짺컯톧훐훸쏻뗄ꆰ뺺헹업돽풭샭ꆱꎬ벴솽룶쪹폃춬튻풴뗄췪좫뺺헹헟늻뿉쓜릲듦ꆣ?떫쫇ꎬ뺺헹업돽풭샭튲낵쪾ퟅ훖좺쫽뇘탫뗈폚풴쫽ꎬ헢퓚샭싛짺첬톧짏뗄몬틥틽웰쇋헹싛ꎬ틲캪풴샠뇰뗄뷧뚨쫇쿠떱죎틢뗄ꎨ偩慮歡‱㤷?ꎩꆣ?튻뿃쫷뿉틔뷧뚨캪뛠훖풴ꎬ샽죧폐뗄짺컯돔쫷룹ꎬ폐뗄돔쫷튶ꎬ폐뗄돔맻쪵뗈뗈ꆣ헢퓚췪좫6
뺺헹뗄캢맛뺭볃샭싛훐튲폐샠쯆뗄컊쳢ꆣ틲캪뻹뫢뷢뗄듦퓚튪쟳쾵춳뗄뇤솿쫽뗈폚랽돌쫽ꆣ컒쏇붫퓚쿂쏦틽죫컄뮯틲쯘ꎬ틔뷢뻶헢튻퇰쏽ꎨ볻㔮?뷚ꎩꆣ??⠳⸲⤠닺튵룯쏼뫍돉뎤뷗뛎?샭싛짺컯톧뗄뺺헹쒣탍뿉틔폃살쏨킴닺튵룯쏼뗄뷸돌훐ꎬ탂벼쫵뛔뻉벼쫵뗄뺺헹쳦듺맘쾵ꆣ탂벼쫵뗄쳘헷쫇뇈뻉벼쫵폐룼룟뗄풴뢺퓘쓜솦ꆣ떱탂벼쫵돉뎤웰살틔뫳ꎬ뻉벼쫵뗄잰춾폐솽룶ꎺ튻쫇쿻췶ꎬ뛾쫇릲듦ꎬ훖좺ꎱ뫍훖좺ꎲ릲듦뗄쳵볾쫇ꎺ??C1b<2< (4a)?C1b?솽룶훖좺릲듦뗄컈첬뷢캪ꎺ *C1−bCn=21<C1 (4b) 1−b2 *C2−bCn=12<C1−b22??솽훖벼쫵릲듦뗄컈첬횵럖뇰뗍폚쎻폐뺺헹헟쪱뛀햼쫐뎡뗄컈첬횵ꆣ솽헟볓ퟜ뗄헻쳥뺭볃뗄냼싧쿟ꎬ돊쿖돶뫪맛뺭볃횸쫽훐뎣볻뗄폖폐퓶뎤폖폐늨뚯뗄쳘헷?볻춼ꎱ?ꆣ뫪맛뺭볃톧춨뎣볙짨퓶뎤쫇뫣뚨뗄횸쫽탎쪽(Solow 1956)ꎬ뺭볃훜웚쿖쿳쫇퓶뎤쟷쫆짏뗾볓뗄늨뚯믲퓫짹ꆣ컒쏇헢샯룸돶쇭튻룶뿉쓜뗄뷢쫍ꎺ쎿훖벼쫵뚼평맦쒣뗝퓶떽맦쒣뗝복뗄퓶뎤맽돌ꎬ뿉평늻춬풴뢺퓘솿뗄싟벭쮹뗙쟺쿟쏨킴ꆣ탂벼쫵좡뻉벼쫵ꎬ믲폫뻉벼쫵뺺헹릲듦뗄헛쪱웚ꎬ볓ퟜ뗄뫪맛뺭볃믡평폚뻉벼쫵닺돶뗄쿂붵뛸돶쿖퓝쪱뗄쿂붵ꎬ돊쿖돶폖폐퓶뎤폖폐늨뚯뗄퓋뚯ꆣ???Logistic 7 population
춼ꎱꎬ탂벼쫵뛔뻉벼쫵뗄뺺헹쳦듺맘쾵ꆣ?닺튵뗄퓶뎤뷗뛎ꎬ뫪맛ꎨ볓ퟜꎩ뺭볃뗄퓶뎤뫍늨뚯쒣쪽ꆣ??춼ꎱ뿉폃살쏨킴싞쮹췐뗄뺭볃돉뎤뷗뛎?Rostow 1990?ꆣ뺭볃훜웚샭싛훐쯹캽뗄뾵쳘삭쳝튮럲ꆰ뎤늨ꆱ?듳풼퓚㔰?㘰쓪ퟳ폒ꎻ퓚헢샯뇭쿖캪잰뫳솽룶퓶뎤첨뷗횮볤뗄쪱볤볤룴ꆣ쒿잰ꎬ컒쏇늢늻횪뗀캪쪲쎴솽룶훷떼닺튵볤벼쫵룯쏼뗄훜웚캪㔰?㘰쓪ꆣ떫쯄쓪ퟳ폒뗄쏀맺뺭볃훜웚뿉쓜뫍쯄쓪뮻뷬뗄헾훎훜웚폐맘ꆣ???⠴?쏦쇙탂벼쫵뫍탂쫐뎡쪱뗄컄뮯쟣쿲???럧쿕욫뫃뗄튻캬닎쫽??뺭볃톧볒퓧뻍힢틢떽싟벭쮹뗙쒣탍?쯻쏇뗄엺움쫇짺컯쒣탍좱짙컄뮯뫍탐캪뗄틲쫽?Wolfe 1927)ꆣ퓚샍뚯럖릤뗄뇭쿖살뾴ꎬ뿉맛달뗄늻쫇죋쏇뗄샭탔뚯믺ꎬ뛸쫇탐캪첬뛈(Houthakker 1956)ꆣ컒쏇살뾼싇컄뮯틲쯘퓚뺺헹탐캪짏뗄뇭쿖ꆣ컒쏇힢틢떽퓚춶닟싔뫍랢햹햽싔뗄톡퓱훐ꎬ릫쮾컄뮯뇭쿖돶벫듳뗄닮틬ꆣ퇐뺿짧믡탄샭톧뗄톧헟랢쿖퓚뚫컷랽컄뮯훐ꎬ룶죋훷틥뗄돌뛈폐뫜듳뗄늻춬ꆣ떱쏦뛔튻룶캴횪뗄쫐뎡믲헟짐캴듳훚뷓쫜뗄벼쫵쪱ꎬ컒쏇뺭뎣맛달떽럧쿕맦뇜뫍럧쿕낮뫃뗄쿠랴좡쿲ꆣ컊쳢쫇ꎺ죧뫎쏨킴뺭볃뺺헹훐탐캪뫍컄뮯뗄닮뇰쓘ꎿ?컒쏇폃쫔듭톧쾰뗄쒣탍살쏨킴퓚뺺헹탂쫐뎡뫍탂풴뗄맽돌훐ꎬ럧쿕맦뇜뫍럧쿕낮뫃뗄늻춬탐캪ꎨ춼ꎲꎩ???⡡?놣쫘헟뗄쳘뗣쫇듓훚탐캪ꎬ죋짙맛췻ꎬ죋뛠룺뷸ꎬ틔맦뇜뷸죫탂쇬폲뗄캴횪럧쿕ꆣ??8
?⡢?뷸좡헟뗄쳘뗣쫇쎰쿕탐캪ꎬ죋짙폂뷸ꎬ죋뛠샫좺ꎬ틔냑컕햼쇬탂쇬폲뗄뿉쓜믺믡ꆣ??춼ꎲ?퓚뺺헹쫐뎡럝뛮뫍벼쫵뷸늽맽돌훐뗄럧쿕맦뇜뫍럧쿕낮뫃ꆣ??††??풭쪼뗄潧楳瑩挠랽돌쏨쫶쇋퓚뎣쫽췋돶싊쿂뗄럧쿕훐탔탐캪ꆣ튪쏨킴탐캪뗄뛠퇹뮯ꎬ컒쏇틽죫튻룶럇쿟탎뗄췋돶싊몯쫽ꎬ쯼뗄뇤솿쫇틑횪헟ꎨ틑죫쫐뎡헟ꎩ퓚ퟜ죋뿚훐뗄뇈싊뫍룃훖좺뗄럧쿕욫뫃쾵쫽a?ꎨ䍨敮‱㤸?ꎩꎺ??nnR(r,a,)=r(1−a)??????ꎨ5ꎩ?NN?헢샯ꎬ(−1<a<1)ꆣ?컒쏇뿉틔붫뎣쫽?떱ퟷ톧쾰쓜솦뗄닢솿ꆣ쾵쫽a쫇럧쿕쟣쿲뗄닢솿ꎺ떱(0<a<1)ꎬ쯼쏨킴놣쫘뗄럧쿕맦뇜믲벯쳥훷틥탐캪ꎬ떱횻폐뫜짙뗄죋뷸죫탂쫐뎡쪱ꎬ췋돶뗄쾵쫽뫜듳ꎬ떱풽살풽뛠뗄죋뷸죫듋쇬폲쪱ꎬ췋돶뗄뇈싊믡복킡ꎻ랴횮ꎬ죴(−1<a<0)ꎬ쯼쏨킴뷸좡뗄럧쿕낮뫃믲헟룶죋훷틥탐캪ꎬ떱횻폐뫜짙뗄죋뷸죫탂쫐뎡쪱ꎬ췋돶뗄쾵쫽뫜킡ꎬ떱풽살풽뛠뗄죋뷸죫듋쇬폲쪱ꎬ췋돶뗄뇈싊믡퓶듳ꆣ?헢퇹컒쏇뻍붨솢쇋튻룶톧쾰뺺헹탐캪뗄튻캬컄뮯쒣탍ꆣ죧폃튻룹뫡훡a살듺뇭룶죋훷틥뗄돌뛈ꎬa듓ꎭ?뇤떽ꎫ?ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽튻룶췪헻뗄탐캪웗ꆣ훡뗄ퟳ뛋쫇룟뛈룶죋훷틥ꎬ샽죧쏀맺뫍컷얷ꎬ붥듎맽뛉떽폒뛋룟뛈뗄벯쳥훷틥ꎬ샽죧죕놾뫍훐맺뗄뒫춳컄뮯ꆣ뛠쫽뗄탐캪뒦퓚솽룶벫뛋횮볤ꆣ???⠴⸱?풴뷚풼탍컄뮯ꎬ풴쿻뫄탍컄뮯ꎬ뫍키얬ꎭ컖샕쮹첹퇰쏽?풴쿞훆쿂뗄컈첬죋뿚믲컈첬닺돶n*뿉틔듓랽돌ꎨ?ꎩ쟳돶ꆣ퓚럇훐탔컄뮯뫍탐캪뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬ?릫쪽⠱??뗄탞헽죧쿂ꎺ??9
r(1−)n*=NNk???????????ra(1−)Nk?컒쏇랢쿖ꎬ늻춬뗄럧쿕쟣쿲떼훂쇋늻춬뗄풴샻폃킧싊믲쫐뎡펵벷돌뛈ꆣ룶죋훷틥뗄풴샻폃싊뗍폚벯쳥훷틥뗄풴샻폃싊ꎺ ?n**a<0‼?n*a=0‼?na>0?⠷???컒쏇살쯣벸룶쫽횵샽ퟓꎨ캪볲뮯볆ꎬ컒쏇헢샯좡Nk=1ꎩꆣ뛔럧쿕맦뇜탍r=,a=
ㄹ㠵?ꆣ쒿잰쓁뎡뫍룻뗘뗄뇈샽ꎬ펢맺캪ㄮ㘴ꎬ램맺캪〮㘹ꎬ틢듳샻캪〮㐱ꎬ쾣산ㄮ㌴ꎬ쏀맺캪ㄮ㈵ꎬ냄듳샻퇇⸱ꎬ떫죕놾캪〮ㄲꎬ몫맺뷶〮〲ꎬ훐맺쓁뎡룻뗘뗄뇈샽쯤캪㈮?ꎬ떫듳쏦믽뗄닝풭뚼퓚짙쫽쏱ퟥ폎쓁뗄훜뇟뗘쟸ꎬ쓚뗘얩튵쟸뗄쓁뎡룻뗘뇈샽ꎬ펦뷓뷼죕놾뫍몫맺뗄쮮욽ꎨ쫀뷧죋컄뗘샭쫖닡ㄹ㠴ꎩꆣ?쓁튵탨튪뗄짺듦뿕볤풶룟폚얩튵ꆣ틔뇊헟쫬쾤뗄쏀맺뗂뿋죸쮹훝뗄뗤탍쓁뎡캪샽ꎬ죽뿚횮볒쫕횧쿠뗖뗄뺭펪맦쒣훁짙탨?춷쒸얣ꎬ쎿춷쒸얣탨쓁뎡?ㄵ펢쒶ꎬퟜ볆캪〰?ㄵ〰펢쒶ꎬ뫏㘰〰?㤰〰쫐쒶ꆣ죧룄쓁뎡캪훐맺쪽뗄킡얩룻ퟷꎬ쎿뮧룻뗘?쒶ꎬ퓲춬퇹췁뗘뿉릩퇸ㄲ〰?ㄸ〰룶볒춥ꎬ쓁튵쯹탨췁뗘풴뇈얩튵룟???룶솿벶ꆣ?평듋뿉볻ꎬ퓚죋샠짧믡랢햹뗄돵웚ꎬ캪쇋뷢뻶짺듦컊쳢ꎬ죋쏇닉폃쇋쫊펦쯹뒦짺첬뮷뺳뗄얩튵벼쫵ꎬ뛸룷ퟔ닉폃뗄늻춬벼쫵폖쯜퓬쇋늻춬쟣쿲뗄컄뮯ꆣ룷쏱ퟥ퓧웚뗄컄뮯뒫춳뛔뫳살벼쫵랽쿲뗄퇝뇤닺짺짮풶뗄펰쿬ꆣ얷쏀컄쏷쫇붨솢퓚뷚쪡샍솦ꎬ쿻뫄풴뗄벼쫵횮짏ꎻ뛸훐뮪컄쏷좴붨솢퓚뷚쪡풴ꎬ쿻뫄죋솦뗄벼쫵횮짏ꆣ쯹틔뫳살컷랽벼쫵뒫죫훐맺쪱ꎬ컼쫕뗄쟩탎듳늻쿠춬ꆣ뷚쪡샍솦뗄믺킵벼쫵퓚훐맺뫜쓑펦폃ꎬ뛸룟닺ퟷ컯죧폱쏗ꎬ십쇥쫭뗈좴맣캪뒫능ꎨ䍨敮‱㤸?ꎬㄹ㤱ꎩꆣ횱떽컷랽엚붢듲냜훐맺슽뻼뫍훐맺헾뢮듓컷랽틽뷸쿖듺뿆톧뷌폽틔뫳ꎬ훐맺뷼듺컄뮯닅훰붥냚췑킡얩쮼쿫뒫춳뗄펰쿬ꆣ?횵뗃힢틢뗄쫇ꎬ컷얷릤튵뮯뗄뗀슷놣돖쇋뷚쪡샍솦뗄벼쫵뫍컄뮯뒫춳ꎬ듓뛸ퟟ쿲몣췢횳쏱ꎬ쎰쿕삩헅ꎬ뫍릤튵룯쏼뗄뗀슷ꆣퟮ뷼훆퓬ꆰ훐맺췾킲싛ꆱ뗄펢쏀샭싛볒ꎬ헽쫇폃쯻쏇ퟔ벺뗄샺쪷뺭퇩ꎬ살췢췆훐맺뺭볃웰량뫳뗄랢햹뗀슷ꆣ폫쯻쏇뗄닂닢쿠랴ꎬ훐맺튪폐뿉돖탸뗄랢햹ꎬ뇘탫톰헒늻춬폚컷랽뗄랢햹슷쿟ꎬ벴뷚쪡풴ꎬ뾪랢훇솦ꎬ뫍뛠퇹랢햹뗄벼쫵ꎬ닅쓜랢햹풴쾡좱ꎬ죋뿚훚뛠ꎬ뗘폲뛠퇹뗄훐맺ꆣ???⠴⸲?뮷뺳헇실뛔쫐뎡맣뛈뫍컈뚨탔뗄펰쿬?뻶뚨싛맽돌퓚쯦믺돥믷쿂뗄펰쿬뿉틔폃춳볆컯샭훐뗄색횮췲ꎨLangevinꎩ랽돌뫍뢣뿋ꎭ웕샊뿋ꎨFokker-Planckꎩ랽돌쏨킴ꆣ컒쏇뾼싇붫쯦믺돥믷볓폚풴뢺퓘솿ꎨ쫐뎡맦쒣ꎩ?뗄쟩탎⡃桥渠ㄹ㠷?돂욽㈰〰?ꆣ??dks2(1−−)n*=NkN2N<N?⠸愩?ad(1−)kNn*=0†?떱2Nds>sc=(1−)?⠸戩?kkN?뮷뺳헇실쿂뗄컈첬맦쒣킡폚쎻폐헇실쪱뗄컈첬맦쒣ꆣ떱헇실랽닮듳떽뎬맽쒳튻쇙뷧횵쪱⠸戩ꎬ쾵춳믡춻좻뇀삣ꎨn*=0ꎩꆣ헢훖솿뇤떽훊뇤뗄춻뇤쿖쿳쫇럇쿟탔쾵춳뗄쳘헷ꆣ?헢샯횵뗃힢틢뗄쫇ꎬ춬퇹뗄풴ꎬ벯쳥훷틥뗄훖좺뿉틔뇈룶죋훷틥뗄훖좺캬돖룼뛠뗄죋뿚ꆣ볙죧솢튵믲솢맺뗄컈뚨폐튻쇙뷧맦쒣듦퓚ꎬ퓲벯쳥훷틥훖좺뾹췢뗐믲11
퓖몦뗄컈뚨탔튪뇈룶죋훷틥뗄훖좺캪룟ꆣ헢쫇캪쪲쎴쾣산뗈쿈뷸뗄킡맺컄쏷쿠볌쏰췶ꎬ훐뮪컄쏷좴퇓탸쫽잧쓪뗄뿉쓜풭틲ꆣ???⠵?톧쾰뺺헹ꎬ샍뚯럖릤ꎬ뫍뛠풪짧믡뗄컈뚨탔컊쳢??훐맺킡얩뺭볃퓚뫜뎤쪱웚쓚놣돖ퟔ룸ퟔퟣꎬ뗖훆샍뚯럖릤뗄랢햹ꆣ훐맺뗄헾훎컄뮯쿠떱뎤뗄쪱웚튲폐냕냙볒ꎬ뛀ퟰ죥쫵뗄쟣쿲ꆣ샍뚯럖릤쓜럱랢햹ꎬ늻춬벼쫵컄뮯뗄랢햹슷쿟쫇뺺헹업돢뮹쫇뺺헹릲듦ꎬ뿉틔폃샭싛짺첬톧훐뗄훖좺뺺헹쒣탍살쏨킴ꆣ샍뚯럖릤뗄맦쒣폫랶캧뿉틔럖뇰폃쫐뎡맦쒣?폫풴훖쫽?살쏨킴ꆣ컒쏇냑쏨킴컄뮯쟣쿲뗄몯쫽⠵?틽죫쏨킴훖좺뺺헹뗄랽돌⠲?ꎨ䍨敮‱㤸㜬돂욽㈰〰ꎩꆣ솽룶뻟폐늻춬컄뮯쟣쿲뫍탐캪쒣쪽뗄톧쾰뺺헹쒣탍뿉킴캪쿂쪽???dn1a=knN−n−b−−1n111(11n2)r1n1(1)N?⠹??dt1dn2=knNa−−b−−2n222(2n2n1)r2n2(1)?dtN2?헢샯n1뫍n2듺뇭훖좺?뫍훖좺?뗄죋뿚믲닺돶ꎬ퓚톧쾰뺺헹믲쫐뎡뺺헹훐ꎬ쯻쏇럖뇰듺뇭틑뺭톧믡듋훖벼쫵믲햼쇬쇋쫐뎡뗄틑횪헟ꆣ컒쏇헢샯횻쳖싛솽룶훖좺뗄쟩탎ꎬꎬ늻쓑냑톧쾰뺺헹쒣탍췆맣떽뛠룶뇤솿뗄쟩탎ꆣ?컒쏇볲뮯⠹?쪽죧쿂⡍畲牡礠ㄹ㠹?ꎺ??du1=u1(1−u1−a12u2)???????⠱〩?dtdu2=ru2(1−u2−a21u1)?dt?헢샯ꎬ?a−1rarn1n221(k1)N2(k2−)Nu=11†湤†u2r2=???⠱ㄩ?rN(−121k1)Nk−N1(2)1N2?r(N−22)bk2C2ba12== (12a) rN−1a2r2Car1−1−22()(1)(1)k1k2N2k2N2 12
rN−1(1)bk1C1ba21== (12b) r2a1rN1Car−−2−11(2)(1)(1)k2k1N1k1N1?⠵⸱?룏뎬햽싔뫍태뇋쳘뗄뒴탂뺫짱?럂헕⠳⸱?뷚뗄랽램ꎬ쟳돶훖좺ꎲ룏뎬늢좡듺훖좺ꎱ뗄쳵볾쫇?a12>1ꎬ벴??a−2r2(1)Ck>2N22C1 (13)?b?뫍⠳?쪽쿠뇈ꎬ⠱??쪽냼삨쇋럇훐탔뗄컄뮯탐캪ꆣ듓⠱??쪽뿉볻ꎬ퓚쪵탐ꆰ룏뎬햽싔ꆱ쪱ꎬ벯쳥훷틥뗄컄뮯뇈룶죋훷틥뗄컄뮯ꎬ튪쟳킡뗃뛠뗄풴닮뻠믲헟톧쾰킧싊뗄닮뻠ꎬ짵훁폐뿉쓜퓚짔캪실뫳쟩탎쿂ꎬ뷓뷼뫍좡듺뢻폐뗄훖좺ꎨC2≤C1ꎬ볙죧폐?b≈1?뫍0<a2≈1?뗄쟩탎ꎩꆣ헢헽쫇쯕솪ꎬ훐맺ꎬ뫍죕놾뗈뫳뷸맺볒폃벼쫵쒣럂뗄랽쪽ꎬ퓸뺭톸쯙ힷ룏릤튵랢듯맺볒뗄샺쪷풭틲ꎬ틲캪벯쳥훷틥컄뮯폐샻폚벯훐풴쪵탐룏뎬ꆣ폫듋뛔헕ꎬ쓚짺퓶뎤샭싛쫇뻶뚨싛뗄폅뮯샭싛ꎬ횪쪶믽샛퓬돉뗄맦쒣뗝퓶ꎬ횻쓜뷢쫍뢻맺폺뢻ꎬ쟮맺폺쟮ꎬ늻쓜뷢쫍뫳살뻓짏뗄룏뎬쿖쿳⡁牲潷‱㤶㈬⁒潭敲‱㤸㘩ꆣ?룶죋훷틥뗄훖좺튪뫍벯쳥훷틥뗄훖좺뺺헹?캨튻뗄짺듦햽싔쫇벼쫵뒴탂ꎬ삩헅풴뗄뢺퓘솿ꎨ퓶볓?ꎩꎬ믲쳡룟ퟔ벺뗄톧쾰쓜솦ꎨ퓶볓?믲복킡?ꎩꆣ죧맻냑웳튵볒뺫짱뾴돉튻훖럧쿕욫뫃탍컄뮯ꎬ컒쏇뻍쓜뗃돶뫍태뇋뗃샠쯆뗄뷡싛ꎬ벴벼쫵뒴탂쫇쫐뎡뺺헹뗄짺쏼쿟ꎬ?놾훷틥쫇튻훖뒴퓬탔믙쏰뗄뒴탂맽돌ꆣ튻떩벼쫵랢햹쎻쓜삩헅탂뗄풴ꎬ룶죋훷틥뗄훖좺뻍붫퓚헹뛡틑폐쫐뎡뗄뺺헹훐ꎬ쫤룸벯쳥훷틥뗄훖좺ꆣ?탂훆뛈뺭볃톧뗄튻킩톧헟쿠탅ꎬ웳튵랢햹뗄뚯솦쫇붵뗍붻틗돉놾ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ퓚뷧뚨닺좨뗄맽돌훐ꎬ짧믡뗄붻틗돉놾쫇퓶볓뗄ꆣ헢뿉듓랢듯맺볒럾컱튵훐ꎬ뫍뷧뚨닺좨폐맘뗄믡볆ꎬ싉쪦ꎬ뷰죚ꎬ뗘닺ꎬ뗈훐뷩늿쏅ꎬ틔벰헾뢮늿쏅햼맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵훐뗄뇈샽늻뛏퓶볓뗄쟷쫆훐뾴돶⡎潲瑨‱㤹㐩ꆣ탂뗄탅쾢룯쏼ꎬ늻떫붵뗍쇋춨톶돉놾ꎬ뛸쟒퓶볓쇋램싉돉놾ꎬ틲캪튻떩뗧ퟓ폊볾튲ퟷ캪램춥뗄횤뻝ꎬ싉쪦릤ퟷ솿뻍듳캪퓶볓ꆣ뢴훆벼쫵뗄뷸늽튲쪹냦좨놣뮤룼쓑뷸탐ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ퓚믬뫏뺭볃쿂ꎬ쮽폐뺭볃ꎬ뫏ퟷ뺭볃ꎬ뫍릫폐뺭볃뗄뺺헹ꎬ퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏좡뻶폚벼쫵뺺헹뗄ퟟ쿲ꆣ퓚컒쏇뗄쒣탍훐ꎬ늢쎻폐뚨싛ꆣ쒿잰ꎬ컷랽랢듯맺볒헾뢮쮰쫕햼맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵뗄뇈훘풼?㐰?㘰┬풶룟폚훐맺‱??ㄵ??뗄쮮욽ꆣ죏캪짧믡뷸늽뗄뇪횾쫇좫엌릫폐뮯믲좫엌쮽폐뮯ꎬ뚼쫇늻럻뫏샺쪷쿖쪵뗄ꆣ???⠵⸲?뺺헹릲듦뗄쳵볾뫍뢴퓓쾵춳뗄뛠퇹탔?13
컒쏇뿉틔폃솽룶훖좺믲솽훖벼쫵뗄릲듦살쏨쫶샍뚯럖릤랢햹뗄뛠풪뮯쟷쫆ꆣ듓⠱〩쪽뫍⠱㈩쪽뿉틔쟳돶퓲훖좺릲듦뗄쳵볾쫇a12<1湤?a21<1ꎺ??bC21a2r<<−2(1)?⠱???a1r1CbkN(1−)122k1N1?⠱??쪽쿠떱뢴퓓ꎬ컒쏇헢샯벯훐쳖싛췪좫뺺헹?b=1?뗄쟩탎ꆣ?⠱??뫍⠴?쪽쿠뇈ꎬ폐룼튻냣뗄샭싛뷡맻ꆣ샭싛짺컯톧훐훸쏻뗄ꆰ뺺헹업돽풭샭ꆱ틽웰뗄쎬뛜늻퓙듦퓚ꆣ릫쪽ꎨ?ꎩ훐ꎬ솽룶췪좫뺺헹뗄훖좺ꎨb㴱ꎩ늻뿉쓜릲듦ꎬ헢뻍튪쟳훖좺쫽뗈폚풴쫽ꆣ떫듓⠱??쪽훐뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ쯤좻솽룶놣쫘뗄훖좺늻뿉쓜릲듦ꎬ떫쫇솽룶뷸좡뗄훖좺뿉틔릲듦ꆣ뿉볻ꎬ톧쾰뺺헹쒣탍뿋럾쇋훖좺뺺헹쒣탍듸살뗄샭싛삧쓑ꆣ솽룶훖좺횮볤뺺헹뗄뷡맻늻뷶좡뻶폚짺첬닎쫽ꎬ뇈죧뮷뺳뗄풴뢺퓘솿??ꎬ뮹틀삵탐캪쾵쫽??ꆣ틲듋ꎬ훖좺쫽늻튻뚨뗈폚풴쫽ꆣ컒쏇뗄럇쿟탔쒣탍뿉틔뷢쫍쾵춳뛠퇹탔뗄믺훆ꆣ?컒쏇랢쿖ꎬ샍뚯럖릤튪쿲뛠풪뮯랽쿲랢햹ꎬ늻뿉쓜퓚뒿놣쫘뗄컄뮯훖좺훐돶쿖ꆣ훐맺샺듺얩쏻웰틥뫍룄뎯뮻듺뗄뷡맻ꎬퟜ쫇튻룶놣쫘뗄좺쳥좡듺쇭튻룶놣쫘뗄좺쳥ꎬ뛸짙탂뗄벼쫵돉뎤릲짺뗄믺믡ꆣ믆ퟚ훇퓚훐맺얩듥맛달떽뗄얩튵퓚짺첬톹솦쿂쓑틔랢햹릤튵뮯뗄샍뚯럖릤뗄ꆰ쓚뻭뮯ꆱ쟣쿲ꎬ뿉틔폃짺첬볓탐캪뗄틲쯘살뷢쫍⠱㤸㘩ꆣ훐맺튪랢햹샍뚯럖릤ꎬ뇘탫맄샸뛠풪컄뮯뗄랢햹ꎬ룄룯뷌폽뾼쫔훆뛈뫍죋쫂훆뛈ꎬ틔늻뻐튻룱폃죋닅ꆣ?쯕솪뗄웰랢짺폚틔룖쳺ꎬ믺킵뗈훘릤튵캪훷떼뗄뗚뛾듎벼쫵룯쏼쪱웚ꎬ헢뿉틔평벯쳥훷틥뗄룏뎬폅쫆살샭뷢ꆣ쯕솪뗄쮥실랢짺퓚평볆쯣믺ꎬ춨톶뗈탅쾢닺튵캪훷떼뗄뗚죽듎벼쫵룯쏼쪱웚ꎬ헢뿉틔평룶죋훷틥뗄뒴탂폅쫆살쮵쏷ꆣ?탂맅뗤캢맛뺭볃톧훐뗄췪좫뺺헹샭싛튲폐샠쯆뺺헹업돽풭샭뗄컊쳢ꆣ닺뚨볛샭싛훐ꎬ쫐뎡뗄뻹뫢놻뚨틥캪컞쳗샻믺믡ꎬ헢뻍튪쟳ꆰ쿟탔뚨볛맦퓲ꆱꎨ副獳??ㄹ㜶ꎩꆣ?뮻퇔횮ꎬ볛룱뗄룶쫽펦룃뗈폚닺뗄룶쫽ꆣ틲듋ꎬ튪샭뷢쿖쪵훐맣랺맛달떽뗄ꆰ럇쿟탔뚨볛ꆱꎬ샽죧듳엺솿돶쫛뗄헛뿛ꎬ늻춬탅폃뗈벶뗄맋뿍듻뿮뗄샻싊늻춬뗈뗈ꎬ뻍뇘탫뾼싇쫐뎡럝뛮폐쿞쳵볾쿂ꎬ럇뻹뫢럇볛룱뺺헹뗄캢맛뺭볃샭싛ꆣ???⠵⸳?뢴퓓탔퇰쏽ꎭ뢴퓓탍뫍컈뚨탔뗄쿻뎤⡴牡摥?潦昩맘쾵?퓚뿘훆싛뫍샭싛짺컯톧훐폐튻룶듳헹싛ꎺ뢴퓓탔뫍컈뚨탔횮볤뗄맘쾵쫇쪲쎴ꎿ뇤솿뷏뛠뗄뢴퓓쾵춳뫍뇤솿뷏짙뗄볲떥쾵춳쿠뇈ꎬ뺿뺹쓄룶룼컈뚨ꎿ?짺컯톧볒쿠탅뢴퓓탔뫍컈뚨탔솽헟볤쫇헽쿠맘뗄ꎺ뢴퓓뗄쾵춳펦떱뇈볲떥뗄쾵춳룼컈뚨ꆣ쒳킩짺컯톧볒맛달떽ꎬ죈듸짺첬쾵춳뗄헇실쯆뫵뇈몮듸뫍컂듸뗄짺첬쾵춳뗄헇실캪킡ꆣ볈좻훖좺퇝뮯쫇듓볲떥쾵춳쿲뢴퓓쾵춳퇝뮯뗄샺쪷맽돌ꎬ듓듯뛻컄ꆰퟮ쫊헟짺듦ꆱ뗄샭싛돶랢ꎬ쯆뫵뿉틔뗃돶뢴퓓쾵춳뇈볲떥쾵춳컈뚨뗄췆싛ꆣ?좻뛸ꎬ뿘훆싛톧볒뫍샭싛컯샭톧볒ퟶ뗄샭싛짺첬톧뗄쫽톧쒣쓢ꎬ컞싛쫇쿟탔뮹쫇럇쿟탔뗄뚯솦쾵춳뗄쒣쓢ꎬ뚼뗃떽뢺쿠맘뗄뷡맻ꎬ벴뢴퓓쾵춳뇈볲떥쾵춳룼늻컈14
뚨ꎨGardner & Ashby 1970, May 1974ꎩꆣ늻짙짺컯톧볒쓑틔뷓쫜헢튻뷡맻ꆣ컒쏇붫듋돆캪ꆰ뢴퓓탔퇰쏽ꆱꆣ?컒쏇살퇐뺿훖좺뺺헹쒣탍퓚헇실뮷뺳쿂뗄컈뚨탔컊쳢ꆣ뮷뺳헇실뿉폃룟쮹냗퓫짹?W(t) 살쏨킴ꆣ쎻폐퓫짹쳵볾쿂뗄뻶뚨싛랽돌ꎬ뿉틔뮯캪퓚냗퓫짹쳵볾쿂뗄쯦믺욫캢럖랽돌ꎬ컯샭톧훐뷐뢣뿋ꎭ웕샊뿋랽돌ꆣ?⠲?쪽쿠펦뗄뢣뿋ꎭ웕샊뿋랽돌뗄뷢뷏캪볲떥ꆣ뮷뺳헇실쪹풴뢺퓘솿복짙?복짙뗄럹뛈캪돽틔튻룶틲ퟓ(1+b)ꆣ??N→N+sW(t) (14) iii (NR−i)i→*kCnn=i=i (15) ii(1+b)(1+b) 컈뚨탔뗄에뻝쫇 ΛC=i(1−b)>0 (16) (1+b) 듓 (14) 쪽뿉볻ꎬ쯦ퟅ풴훘뗾쾵쫽뗄퓶볓ꎬ뮷뺳헇실쿂뗄쾵춳컈뚨탔믡복짙ꆣ 컒쏇뷓훸뾼달톧쾰뺺헹쒣탍⠹?퓚헇실뮷뺳쿂뗄컈뚨탔ꆣ웤뷡맻뫍⠱㔩Ⱘㄶ?샠쯆ꎬ횻쫇뛔돆뗄풴훘뗾쾵쫽b 뇤캪늻뛔돆뗄풴훘뗾쾵쫽aꆣ듓 (12) 쪽뿉볻ꎬij놣쫘뗄훖좺믡퓶볓풴훘뗾쾵쫽ꎬ벴복짙뛠풪뺺헹쾵춳뗄컈뚨탔ꎻ뛸뷸좡뗄훖좺믡복짙풴훘뗾쾵쫽ꎬ벴퓶볓뛠풪뺺헹쾵춳뗄컈뚨탔ꆣ 튻냣쮵살ꎬ쾵춳뗄뇤솿쫽퓶볓ꎬ뇤솿횮볤뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃잿뛈퓶볓ꎬ쾵춳뗄컈뚨탔믡복짙(May 1974)ꆣ?컒쏇듓짺컯뫍짧믡쿖쿳뗄맛달돶랢ꎬ횧돖뿘훆싛뫍샭싛컯샭톧볒뗄뷡싛ꎬ럱뚨쒳킩샭싛짺컯톧볒뗄닂닢ꆣ컯샭톧쒳킩믹놾풭샭ꎬ뻍살횮폚뢺쏦뗄샺쪷뺭퇩ꎺ샽죧폀뚯믺ퟶ늻돉ꎬ뻍폐죈솦톧뗄쓜솿쫘뫣뚨싉ꎻ떥죈풴죈믺ퟶ늻돉ꎬ뻍폐죈솦톧뗚뛾뚨싉ꎻ맢쯙컞램뎬맽ꎬ뇣폐쿠뛔싛풭샭ꆣퟸ뇪뫍쯙뛈늻쓜춬쪱닢ힼꎬ뇣폐솿ퟓ솦톧뗄닢늻ힼ풭샭ꆣ컒쏇럂킧컯샭톧뗄쮼쿫랽램ꎬ붫컈뚨탔뫍뢴퓓탔늻쓜볦뗃뗄맣랺맛달ꎬ룅삨캪ꆰ뢴퓓탔뫍컈뚨탔횮볤뗄듋쿻뇋뎤풭샭⡴牡摥?潦昩ꆱꎬ볲돆캪뢴퓓탔뫍컈뚨탔뗄쿻뎤풭샭ꎻ벴컈뚨탔뗄퓶볓틔컾짼뢴퓓탔캪듺볛ꎬ뛸뛠퇹탔뗄랢햹폖틔복짙쾵춳뗄컈뚨탔캪듺볛ꎨ돂욽′〰?ꎩꆣ?헢튻뷡싛퓚쿖쪵짺믮훐뫜뫃샭뷢ꆣ뻙샽퇔횮ꎬ뗍뗈뚯컯뗄퓙짺쓜솦풶뇈룟뗈뚯컯잿ꆣ튻쳵뾳캪솽뛎믡뇤캪솽쳵ꎬ벹ힵ뚯컯뻍늻뿉쓜ꆣ퓚얦풼뗄쫀뷧쎳틗훐탄놬햨튻뿅햨떯ꎬ웤웆뮵ퟷ폃풶듳폚햨튻룶풽쓏뗄얩ꎬ틲캪잰헟풶뇈뫳헟뢴퓓ꆣ헢쫇뾹햽맽돌훐퇓낲풶뇈컷낲쓜릻볡쫘뗄풭틲ꆣ쎫퓳뚫듓킡얩뺭볃럀폹췢뗐죫쟖뗄뺭퇩돶랢ꎬ룣킡얩뺭볃믹뒡짏뗄죋쏱릫짧ꎬ랴뛔맺볊짧믡럖릤ꎬ헽쫇믹폚맺볒낲좫뗄컈뚨탔뗄뾼싇ꆣ?15
듓컈뚨탔뫍뢴퓓탍횮볤뗄쿻뎤맘쾵돶랢ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔럖컶릫쮾볦늢믲릫쮾럖닰뗄뺭볃놳뺰ꎬ에뛏쫐뎡럝뛮뫍뷸죫쪱믺ꆣ죧맻쓜힡탂벼쫵뫍탂쫐뎡ꎬ뷸좡탍뗄닟싔랽쓜돉릦ꎻ죧맻쏦뛔뗄쫇춣훍뗄쫐뎡뫍짧믡뗄뚯떴ꎬ놣쫘탍뗄햽싔룼틗쪹릫쮾짺듦ꆣ짧믡뺭볃퇝뮯쫇뻶뚨싛뫍쯦믺싛믬뫏뗄럖닭맽돌ꎬ죋쏇뻟폐폐쿞뗄풤퇔쓜솦ꆣ틲듋ꎬ늻듦퓚쓜릻훷퓗닺튵뗄뻸뛔펮볒ꆣ튲뻍쎻폐튻훖컄뮯쓜뛀냔쫀뷧ꆣ??⠵⸴?뢴퓓쾵춳뫍탍뺭볃?퓚탍뺭볃톧훐ꎬ튻킩쇮죋쏔믳뗄컊쳢뿉틔듓뢴퓓쾵춳뗄뷇뛈뗃틔샭뷢ꆣ듓ퟔ좻풴ꎬ죋솦풴ꎬ뫍믹뒡짨쪩뛸퇔ꎬ잰쯕솪뫍뚫얷풶뇈훐맺캪뫃ꎬ떫쫇쿲쫐뎡뺭볃뗄탍맽돌훐ꎬ잰쯕솪뺭볃뗄뇀삣ꎬ뚫얷뺭볃뗄?탎쟺헛ꎬ뫍훐맺룄룯뗄돉릦쫇탍뺭볃뗄쿊쏷뛔헕ꆣ헢쫇캪쪲쎴쓘ꎿ?쯕솪볆뮮뺭볃뗄쳘헷쫇퇏룱뗄뒹횱샍뚯럖릤ꎬ벸뫵쎻폐뫡쿲훘뢴퓬돉뗄뺺헹ꆣ뻍죧튻볜횻폐튻룶틽쟦뗄량믺ꎬ횻튪틽쟦맊헏뻍믡량믺쪧쫂ꆣ잰쯕솪퓚뚫얷룣뗄맺볊샍뚯럖릤좫뾿훐퇫볆뮮킭뗷ꎬ튻떩훐퇫킭뗷췟뷢ꎬ쒳룶릤튵솴돶쇋컊쳢ꎬ헻룶뗄쾵춳뻍믡첱뮾ꆣ쿠랴ꎬ훐맺솽쳵췈ퟟ슷뗄랽헫ꎬ퓬돉듳훐킡웳튵늢뻙뗄룱뻖ꆣ컄뮯룯쏼쪱웚훐퇫헾뢮튻뛈첱뮾ꎬ뗘랽뺭볃헕퇹퓋ꆣ쯤좻훐맺뗄램훆뫍닺좨늢늻뇈뚫얷붡좫ꎬ튻떩훐맺뗄뾪럅헾닟듲웆쇋뗘랽훷틥뗄놣뮤ꎬ훐맺뗄맺폐웳튵뫍벯쳥웳튵뚼쏦쇙잿폐솦뗄뫡쿲뺺헹ꎬ틲뛸뷏틗뷸탐쿲쫐뎡믺훆뗄맽뛉ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ뫡쿲뺺헹뛸럇뗘쟸믲룶죋닮틬닅쫇듙뷸샍뚯럖릤뗄뚯솦ꎬ뺺헹탔웳튵뗄듦퓚쫇쫐뎡ퟔ평뮯룄룯뗄잰쳡ꆣ?폐좤뗄쫇ꎬ퇮킡뾭믹폚튻냣뻹뫢샭싛뗄샍뚯럖릤쒣탍ꎬ쯤좻닉폃쇋폅뮯쯣램ꎬ떫컞쿖쪵틢틥쿂뗄쫐뎡뺺헹ꆣ틲캪웤샍뚯럖릤뗄ퟮ룟쒣쪽ꎬ쫇쎿죋짺닺튻훖늻춬뗄닺욷ꎬ쎿룶짺닺헟뚼쫇쎻폐뺺헹뛔쫖뗄슢뛏헟ꎬ헢헽쫇쯕쪽뛸럇쏀쪽믲헟훐쪽뗄샍뚯럖릤⡙慮朠慮搠䉯牬慮搠ㄹ㤱?ꆣ컒쏇횸돶헢뗣ꎬ쫇쿫쮵쏷튻냣뻹뫢샭싛돉놾킧틦럖컶뗄뺲첬뿲볜ꎬ쓑틔쳖싛놾훊쫇늻좷뚨뗄샍뚯럖릤뗄쮫쿲퇝뮯컊쳢ꆣ뾼싇붻틗돉놾뗄폅뮯샭싛퓚쒳훖돌뛈짏뿉틔뷢쫍릤튵랢듯맺볒샍뚯럖릤돌뛈퓶볓뗄뎤웚쟷쫆ꎬ떫컞램샭뷢샍뚯럖릤퓚랢햹훐맺볒뺭샺뗄쟺헛뫍삧쓑ꎬ튲쓑틔뷢쫍랢듯맺볒닺튵룯쏼훐뗄탍캣믺뫍잿맺뗄탋쮥ꆣ?틔훐맺뗄맺쟩뛸퇔ꎬ튪쿱쏀맺쓇퇹춶죫듳솿럧쿕놾폚잰뺰늻쏷샊뗄룟뿆벼탐튵쫇쓑틔뫳볌뗄ꆣ떫훐맺뿉좡뷴룺햽쫵ꎬ벴춶죫킡솿뷰ퟷ퇐뺿뾪랢ꎬ틔엠퇸죋닅ꎬퟩ횯뛓컩ꎬ맛달뚯쿲ꎬힷퟙ랢햹ꆣ퓚뿆톧뷌폽짏뇘탫솦쟳뛠풪뮯ꆣ떫퓚릤튵헾닟짏ꎬ늻뿉췪좫ퟔ평럅죎ꆣ폈웤튪힢틢릤튵벼쫵뇪ힼ뫍짌튵뺺헹맦퓲뗄훆뚨ꎻ튲늻뿉맽퓧벯훐쪹폃뷰ꎬ룣볆뮮뺭볃쪱듺뗄횸쇮릤튵헾닟ꆣ컒쏇뿉틔붨솢뿆톧뷧뫍헾뢮볤뗄뷴쏜뫏ퟷꎬ퓚탂벼쫵룕룕뷸죫쪵폃뷗뛎ꎬ뮹캴듯떽슢뛏뗄맦쒣뺭볃쪱ꎬ뻍솢벴늻쪧쪱믺뗘볓틔틽뷸뫍췆맣ꎬ엤뫏뇪ힼ훆뚨ꥰ뷰죚럶훺ꥰ쮰쫕폅듽뗈엤쳗듫쪩ꎬ틔듯떽톸쯙룏뎬뫍햼쇬쫐뎡뗄쒿뗄ꆣ? ?
㘩샍뚯럖릤뗄죽훘훆풼뫍맣틥쮹쏜풭샭??16
틀뻝뢴퓓탔뫍컈뚨탔뗄쿻뎤풭샭ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뷢뻶뻹뫢샭싛뗄쮹쏜삧뺳ꆣ뾭뛷쮹럂킧샭싛컯샭훐쿁틥쿠뛔싛뫍맣틥쿠뛔싛뗄맘쾵ꎬ냑쯻뗄뫪맛뺭볃톧돆캪쿠뛔폚?ꆰ쳘쫢ꆱ뗄⡳灥捩慬?맅뗤뺭볃톧뗄ꆰ튻냣ꆱ샭싛⡧敮敲慬⁴桥潲???힢ꎺ훐컄놾틫캪ꆰ춨싛ꆱ쫇늻럻뫏뾭뛷쮹풭틢뗄?ꎨ?敹湥猠ㄹ㌶ꎩꆣ컒쏇내쯻뗄잰샽쳡돶죧쿂뗄맣틥쮹쏜풭샭ꎬ벴샍뚯럖릤쫜쿞폚쫐뎡맦쒣ꎬ풴훖샠ꎬ뫍뮷뺳뗄헇실럹뛈ꆣ?볙죧횻폐튻훖풴ꎬ퓲뷓뷼풴벫쿞쪱ꎬ쫐뎡뗄맦쒣튲붫쫜떽쿞훆뛸ퟟ쿲슢뛏ꆣ헢헽쫇쮹뗙룱샕횸돶뗄쮹쏜삧뺳ꆣ떫퓚튻룶뛠풪뮯뗄쿖듺릤튵짧믡ꎬ쎻폐솽훖웳튵믡짺닺췪좫튻퇹뗄닺욷ꎬ쯹틔캢맛뺭볃톧뚨틥뗄췪좫쫐뎡풶샫쪵볊ꆣ샭싛짺첬톧뗄뺺헹쒣탍ꎬ폃풴훘뗾쾵쫽살쏨킴늻춬닺튵ꎬ늻춬짌욷ꎬ늻춬벼쫵뗄뺺헹ꎬ뿉틔퇐뺿웳튵뗄뺺헹닟싔ꎬ벼쫵뗄짺쏼훜웚ꎬ뫍닺튵룼탂뮻듺뗄맦싉ꆣ?뺭볃쓜럱돖탸퓶뎤ꎬ좡뻶폚탂뗄벼쫵룼탂쓜럱랢쿖룼탂룼듳뗄풴ꎬ틔냚췑뻉풴놨돪뗝복뗄쿞훆ꆣ뮻퇔횮ꎬ뺭볃퓶뎤쫜쿞폚풴뗄훖샠ꆣ뒫춳훐맺뗄랢햹쿞폚췁뗘풴뗄얩튵ꎬ뒺쟯햽맺틔뫳떽쟥듺뗄샍뚯럖릤ꎬ쪼훕캴쓜닺짺쿖듺뗄믹폚뿳컯쓜풴뗄릤튵룯쏼ꆣ쎫퓳뚫쳡돶뗄ꆰ짮췚뚴ꎬ맣믽솸ꎬ늻돆냔ꆱ쫇믹폚훬풪뗄ꆰ룟훾잽ꎬ맣믽솸ꎬ췭돆췵ꆱ뗄킡얩뺭볃뗄뻼쫂햽싔ꆣ킡얩뺭볃뛔퇓낲쪱듺뗄뾹죕폎믷햽폐샻ꎬ떫뛔뷢럅뫳뗄뺭볃랢햹늢늻샻ꆣ쯤좻컞쫽킡얩뗄듦퓚ꎬ쪹룄룯돵웚뗄볒춥퓰죎돐냼훆룼뷓뷼폚췪좫뺺헹뗄쒣쪽ꎬ떫얩튵퓶뎤뗄쟷쫆듓냋쪮쓪듺훐웚웰뻍쿔훸럅싽ꆣ탂훆뛈뺭볃톧췹췹맽뛈잿뗷닺좨뗄훘튪탔ꆣ뛔폚훐맺췁뗘풴뫍쮮풴퇏훘좱랦ꎬ맽쪣샍솦벫캪퇏훘뗄ힴ뿶ꎬ췁뗘쮽폐뮯쓑틔룹놾룄짆얩튵뺭펪뗄맦쒣킧펦ꎬ룼컞훺폚붵뗍짧믡놣헏뗄돉놾ꆣ훐맺얩듥뗄믹놾돶슷퓚틽죫탂벼쫵ꎬ뾪뇙탂풴ꎬ냼삨맄샸얩듥뗄맽쪣샍솦뗄뿧쟸쇷뚯ꆣ횻폐퓚듲뾪탂풴뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬ얩듥뗄샍뚯럖릤닅폐돉뎤뗄폠뗘ꆣ랢햹듳훐돇쫐튲뇈랢햹킡돇헲룼폐샻폚랢햹샍뚯럖릤ꎬ틲캪잰헟뗄쫐뎡맦쒣캪듳ꆣ?컊쳢쫇샍뚯럖릤쪹쾵춳뢴퓓탔퓶볓ꎬ틲뛸뷡릹늻컈뚨탔퓶볓ꆣ헢뻍룸샍뚯럖릤룸돶뗚죽룶훆풼쳵볾ꎬ벴뮷뺳헇실뇘탫쿞훆퓚튻뚨랶캧횮쓚ꆣ훐맺샺쪷짏랴뢴닺짺뗄듳맦쒣짧믡뚯싒ꎬ뎯듺톭뮷ꎬ듓샺쪷짏뾴ꎬ잿뮯쇋ퟔ룸ퟔퟣ뗄킡얩뺭볃ꎬ뛸럇듙뷸샍뚯럖릤뗄랢햹ꆣ훐맺샺듺춳훎헟잿뗷ퟔ룸ퟔퟣꎬ훷튪돶폚럀횹쳬퓖죋믶뗄뾼싇ꎬ뛸럇튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍훐쒲샻뗄뚯믺믲뷚쪡퓋쫤돉놾뗄볆쯣ꆣ훐맺뷼뛾쪮쓪룄룯뾪럅뗄돉릦ꎬ쫇냑짧믡컈뚨ퟷ캪뺭볃랢햹뗄잰쳡좡뗃뗄ꆣ뛸뚫얷택뿋쇆램뗄듺볛ꎬ쫇컾짼짧믡컈뚨ꎬ튲뻍뛱뮯쇋뷡릹뗷헻뗄뮷뺳ꆣ헢튲쫇탂훆뛈뺭볃톧맽럖잿뗷룶죋뗄풭ퟓ샭탔ꎬ뫶싔짧믡헻쳥뗄뢴퓓탔듸살뗄뷡릹늻컈뚨탔뗄뷡맻ꆣ죎뫎탂쳥훆뗄붨솢뚼럇짙쫽뺫펢뗄샭탔짨볆ꎬ뛸쫇뛠훖솦솿뺺헹퇝뮯뗄뷡맻ꆣ짧믡쾵춳뗄퇝뮯쿱튻뿅럖닭쫷ꎬ쎿룶럖닭뗣짏뗄헇실뫍춻뇤쫇쓑틔풤쇏뗄ꆣ헢헽쫇얼좻뫍뇘좻쿠뷡뫏뗄뇧횤램ꆣ??⠶???웳튵맦쒣뗝퓶뗄쓚퓚훆풼ꎭ뢴퓓탔틽웰뗄뷡릹늻컈뚨탔?맣틥쮹쏜풭샭뛔샭뷢닺튵ퟩ횯훐듳웳튵뫍킡웳튵뗄릲듦뫍퇝뮯ꎬ뛔뷢뻶쮹쏜삧뺳뗄틉쓑쳡돶쇋웴쪾ꆣ?웳튵뗄맦쒣뗝퓶쿖쿳쫇듳볒쫬횪뗄ꆣ퓚폐만뚨돉놾ꎬ샽죧폐만뚨닺뫍캬탞죋릤뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬ쫐뎡쿺솿풽듳ꎬ욽뻹돉놾뻍풽뗍ꆣ떫탂맅뗤캢맛뺭볃톧뗄삧쓑쫇ꎬ맦쒣뗝퓶뗄웳튵늻듦퓚웳튵뗄릩룸쟺쿟?Sraffa 1926,⁖慲楡渠ㄹ㠴?ꆣ?17
컒쏇죏캪ꎬ쿞훆웳튵맽뛈삩헅뗄뻶뚨탔틲쯘늻쫇뻶뚨싛뗄폅뮯샭탔ꎬ뛸쫇웳튵맦쒣뗝퓶뗄쓚퓚훆풼ꎬ벴뢴퓓탔퓚뮷뺳헇실쿂틽웰뗄늻컈뚨탔ꆣ볙죧듳웳튵늻쏦쇙뢴퓓탔듸살뗄뷡릹늻컈뚨탔뗄쿞훆ꎬ퓲웳튵뗄맦쒣킧펦퓚뺭볃짏짽웚믡뛱탔삩헅ꎬ좱랦쓚짺뗄훆풼믺훆ꎻ떫퓚뮷뺳뚯떴믲벼쫵룯쏼뗄탍쪱웚ꎬ듳웳튵췹췹믡쫤룸킡웳튵ꎬ틲캪킡웳튵뇈듳웳튵폐룼듳뗄쇩믮탔뫍컈뚨탔ꆣ듳웳튵뫍킡웳튵볤뗄쿻뎤맘쾵ꎬ쫇쓑틔듓붻틗돉놾뫍킭ퟷ돉놾뗄뺲첬럖컶돶랢뷢쫍뗄ꎬ틲캪벼쫵톸쯙뷸늽뫍뺭볃랢햹늻욽뫢뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬ늻듦퓚ퟮ병웳튵맦쒣뗄폅뮯뷢ꆣ??⠶???컄뮯쟣쿲ꎬ캤늮쏼쳢ꎬ뫍샮풼즪컊쳢?컒쏇쳡돶뗄뗄맣틥쮹쏜풭샭ꎬ쫇뛔ꆰ뾴늻볻뗄쫖ꆱ뗄탅쳵뗄랢햹뫍늹돤ꎬ틔샭뷢컷랽컄쏷틔췢뗄쫀뷧뗄뛠퇹랢햹ꆣ웤쇩룐살횮폚뛔샮풼즪컊쳢뗄맛달뫍쮼뾼ꆣ?샮풼즪퓸뺭컊맽튻룶뢻폐쳴햽탔뗄컊쳢ꎺ캪쪲쎴놾훷틥뫍쿖듺뿆톧웰풴폚컷얷뛸늻쫇훐맺믲웤쯻뗄컄쏷ꎿ헢뻍쫇훸쏻뗄샮풼즪컊쳢ꎨNeedham 1954ꎩꆣ샮풼즪듓뿆톧랽램뗄뷇뛈뗃떽뗄믘듰쫇ꎺ훐맺죋늻뚮뗃폃쫽쒿ퟖ뷸탐맜샭ꆣ헢뛔훐맺죥볒톧쫵뒫춳횻힢훘뗀뗂엺움뛸늻힢훘뚨솿뺭볃맜샭쫇뫜뫃뗄엺움ꆣ떫헢횻쫇뛔샮풼즪컊쳢뗄튻룶뿉쓜뗄믘듰ꆣ듓컒쏇뗄컄뮯뺺헹쒣탍룸돶쇭튻룶뷢듰ꎺ훐맺킡얩뺭볃뗄풴쿞훆뫍놣쫘쟣쿲ꎬퟨ낭쇋샍뚯럖릤뫍뿆톧컄뮯뗄뛠퇹랢햹ꆣ?캤늮퓸냑컷얷놾훷틥뗄웰풴맩뷡캪탂뷌뺫짱ꎬ뛸냑훐맺놾훷틥뗄늻랢햹맩ퟯ폚죥볒컄뮯(Weber 1930)ꆣ뚫퇇뫍훐맺뗄뺭볃웰량횮뫳ꎬ컷랽톧헟폖붫돉릦맩횮폚죥볒컄뮯뗄펰쿬ꆣ헢웄폐컄뮯뻶뚨싛뗄캶뗀ꆣ떫헢늻쓜췪좫뷢쫍짧믡랢햹뗄뛠퇹탔뫍늻좷뚨탔ꆣ?컒쏇뛔샮풼즪컊쳢뗄믘듰냼삨죽훘틲쯘ꎺ?튻쫇풴틲쯘ꆣ훐맺뛠즽짙뗘ꎬ냫룉몵웸뫲뗄짺첬풼쫸ꎬ?듙쪹훐맺랢햹쇋뷚쪡풴ꎬ쿻뫄샍솦뗄얩튵벼쫵ꎬ뛸럇삩헅풴ꎬ뷚쪡샍솦뗄쓁얩벼쫵ꎬ떼훂훜웚탔뗄짺첬캣믺뫍훎싒톭뮷ꎬퟨ낭쇋샍뚯럖릤뗄랢햹ꎨ돂욽‱㤷?ꎩꆣ?싞쮹췐횸돶ꎬ뺭볃돉뎤뗄뚯솦쫇벼쫵룯쏼ꎬ늻쫇놾믽샛⡒潳瑯眠ㄹ㤰?ꆣ컒쏇듓훐맺탍뺭볃뗄맛달랢쿖ꎬ훐맺퓚췢쇷죫뗄춬쪱ꎬ듦퓚듳맦쒣뗄놾쇷돶ꆣ훐맺헾뢮평폚췢쎳쮳닮뛸듳솿릺싲쏀맺맺햮뻍쫇튻샽ꆣ쪵볊짏ꎬ훐맺뮶펭뗄췢ꎬ늻쫇뒿듢뗄뷰죚놾ꎬ뛸쫇뫍횱뷓춶쿠뷡뫏뗄뿆톧벼쫵뫍맜샭벼쫵ꆣ탂맅뗤퓶뎤샭싛볲떥뗘붫뺭볃퓶뎤맩뷡캪놾뫍샍솦뗄쫤죫ꎬ벼쫵횻쫇췢짺닎쫽ꎬ벼쫵룼탂샠쯆췢살퓫짹⡓潬潷‱㤵㘩ꎬ뛸컞닺튵룯쏼뗄훷떼ꎬ헢쫇맽폚볲뮯뗄샭싛ꆣ쓚짺퓶뎤샭싛붫뺭볃퓶헽맩뷡캪횪쪶뗄믽샛킧펦⡁牲潷‱㤶㈬⁒潭敲‱㤸㘩ꎬ뫶쫓쇋벼쫵뗄룼탂뮻듺맽돌ꎬ뻍컞램뷢쫍냩쯦벼쫵뷸늽쪱뗄뺭볃늨뚯ꆣ?뛾쫇컄뮯틲쯘ꆣ듓컒쏇뗄컄뮯뺺헹쒣탍뿉틔뾴떽ꎺ쎰쿕뺫짱샻폚뛠풪뫍뒴탂ꎬ뇜쿕쟣쿲샻폚컈뚨뫍룏뎬ꆣ컒쏇퓚⠵⸲?뷚쿔쪾ꎬ뒿놣쫘뗄훖좺늻쓜랢햹샍뚯럖릤ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ컒쏇럖컶뗄돶랢뗣늻쫇탂맅뗤뗄폅뮯샭탔ꎬ뛸쫇쓎쳘뗄늻뿉풤퇔뗄늻좷뚨탔(Knight 1920)ꎬ뫍태뇋쳘뗄웳튵볒뗄뒴탂뺫짱ꆣ뫢솿컄뮯뗄뺭볃펰쿬뗄횸뇪ꎬ쫇뷸죫탂쫐뎡뛔럧쿕뗄낮뫃뮹쫇맦뇜살ꎬ늻쫇캤늮잿뗷뗄뛔놾믽샛뗄첬뛈⡗敢敲?ㄹ㌰Ⱐ婯?‱㤹㐩ꆣ닺좨붻틗톧엉욬쏦잿뗷룶죋훷틥뗄뻸뛔폅풽탔ꎬ뫶쫓벯쳥훷틥뗄쿠뛔폅풽탔ꎬ뻍쓑틔샭뷢떱듺믬뫏뺭볃뗄쳘헷ꎬ훆뛈퇝뮯뗄뛠퇹탔ꎬ뫍슷뺶쿠맘뗄훘튪탔⡃潡獥‱㤶〬⁁牴桵爠ㄹ㤴?ꆣ?18
죽쫇쾵춳뢴퓓탔틲쯘ꆣ샍뚯럖릤뗄랢햹ꎬ튪쟳컈뚨뗄뮷뺳ꆣ쿖듺뿆톧뫍놾훷틥뗄돶쿖늻쫇떥튻컄뮯뗄ퟔ짭퇓햹ꎬ뛸쫇뛠훖컄쏷돥춻퇝뮯뗄뷡맻ꆣ헢뻍뇘탫뷸튻늽퇐뺿뢴퓓탔뫍컈뚨탔뗄맘쾵컊쳢ꆣ훐맺쏦쇙떥튻킡얩뺭볃퓬돉뗄짺첬캣믺뗄뛱뮯ꎬ쟘몺틔살ퟔ좻퓖몦뗄훜웚늻뛏쯵뛌ꎬ얩쏱웰틥뫍췢뗐죫쟖늻뛏ꎬ볓짏헾뢮믵뇒닆헾쮰쫕헾닟뗄뛠뇤ꎬ뚼늻샻폚샍뚯럖릤뗄돖탸랢햹ꆣ퓚헢룶틢틥짏ꎬ탂훆뛈뺭볃톧엉잿뗷램훎뗄뎤풶탔컈뚨탔ꎬ쫇폐샻폚샍뚯럖릤뗄ꆣ떫램훆쾸럖뫍뢴퓓뗄돌뛈ꎬ뇘탫뫍떱쪱뗄벼쫵쫖뛎뫍뺺헹뮷뺳쿠쫊펦ꆣ쏀맺얷훞듳웳튵뗄돶ퟟꎬ쫇뫍랢듯맺볒뗄램싉맽폚랱쯶ꎬ쯟쯏돉놾맽룟틖훆쇋닺튵랢햹퓬돉뗄ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ훐맺뗄램훆붨짨ꎬ쫇뫍뺭볃랢햹늢뷸뗄릲짺퇝뮯맽돌ꎬ늻쫇좫엌컷뮯뗄틆횲맽돌ꆣ헢튲쫇훐맺룄룯뗄훘튪뺭퇩횮튻ꆣ??⠶⸲?짧믡퇝뮯ꎬ퇇컈첬ꎬ뫍뾪럅쾵춳?훐맺뗄짧믡뿆톧뷧뎤웚헹싛맽뫍샮풼즪컊쳢샠쯆뗄튻룶컊쳢ꎬ벴훐맺뗄럢붨짧믡캪뫎헢퇹뎤ꎿ튻룶폐펰쿬뗄쮵램냑훐맺뇈폷캪뎬컈뚨쾵춳ꎨ뷰맛쳎ꎬ쇵쟠럥ꎬㄹ㠴ꎩꆣ뿘훆싛횸돶퓋뚯컈뚨뗄믺훆쫇뢺랴삡ꎬ늻컈뚨뗄믺훆쫇헽랴삡?Wiener 1948)ꆣ죧훐맺짧믡횻폐뢺랴삡ꎬ쎻폐헽랴삡ꎬ뻍횻폐컈첬ꎬ늻믡폐훜웚탔뗄짧믡뚯싒쇋ꆣ뎬컈뚨뗄쮵램쎻폐쟸럖뚯솦톧뗄컈뚨탔뫍쾵춳뾹돥믷뗄뷡릹컈뚨탔ꆣ컒쏇잰쏦쳖싛뗄뢴퓓탔폫컈뚨탔뗄맘쾵ꎬ횸뗄헽쫇킡얩뺭볃뚯싒뫳퓙짺뗄뷡릹컈뚨탔ꎬ틔벰랢햹샍뚯럖릤뗄삧쓑ꆣ낢쪲뇈뛔ꆰ뎬컈뚨ꆱ뗄쳡램퓚뿘훆싛톧뷧늢늻춨탐⡁獨批‱㤶〩ꆣ?룼캪짮뿌뗄쳡램쫇톦뚨퓚솿ퟓ짺컯톧훐쳡돶뗄퇇컈첬ꎬퟷ캪샭뷢짺쏼쾵춳뗄뷡릹믺훆ꆣ쯼뿉틔춬쪱뷢쫍짺쏼쾵춳뗄컈뚨탔폫쫊펦탔솽랽쏦뗄쳘헷??卣桲㽤楮来?‱㤴㠩ꆣ쿔뛸틗볻ꎬ쯹캽뗄뎬컈뚨쿠펦폚춼㍣뗄컈첬ꎬ짺컯뫍짧믡쾵춳뚼펦룃쫇춼㍢퇇컈첬뷡릹ꎬ럱퓲뻍쎻폐쫊펦탔뗄퇝뇤쇋ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ캢맛뺭볃톧훐맽뛈볲떥뮯뗄춹탔벯쳵볾뫍떥뗷탔잡잡업돽쇋퇇컈첬뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ???춼??컯샭쾵춳훐뗄죽훖컈뚨ힴ첬ꎺ⡡⤠늻컈첬Ⱐ⡢?퇇컈첬??⡣⤠컈첬ꆣ???쇭튻룶쇷탐뗄쮵램쫇훐맺훐퇫벯좨뗄뗛맺첫훆ꎬ뛔얩쏱뗄냾쿷첫닐뿡ꆣ믆죊폮뛔쏷듺닆헾뗄뗄퇐뺿뗃돶쿠랴뗄뷡싛ꎬ훐맺뫍펢맺죕놾뗄럢붨쪱듺뇈ꎬ헾뢮뗄쮰쫕뗍뗃뛠ꆣ컊쳢퓚훐맺얩쏱뗄쪣폠풶뇈컷얷죕놾캪킡ꎨ믆죊폮‱㤸?ꎩꆣ헢잡쫇컒쏇횸돶뗄샍뚯럖릤뗄랢햹쫜풴쿞훆뗄컊쳢ꆣ컊쳢쫇ꎬ쏦뛔춬퇹뗄풴뫍죋뿚톹솦ꎬ캪뫎룄룯뾪럅뗄헢뛾쪮쓪뗄뇤뮯뇈맽좥뿬뗃뛠쓘ꎿ헢튲쫇뻹뫢샭싛쓑틔뷢쫍뗄19
컊쳢ꆣ뒫춳뗄뻹뫢샭싛쳖싛뗄쫇럢뇕뗄쫐뎡ꆣ컒쏇뗄뺺헹쒣탍틾몬ퟅ튻룶뾪럅뗄쾵춳ꎬ틲캪탂뗄벼쫵틢캶훸탂뗄풴ꆣ?캪듋ꎬ컒쏇튪틽죫럇욽뫢첬죈솦톧뛔짺쏼뫍짧믡쾵춳퇝뮯믺훆뗄샭뷢ꆣ웕샯룟뷲쟸럖쇋죽훖폐탲뷡릹⡐物杯杩湥?ㄹ㠰?ꎺ튻쫇맂솢쾵춳훐뗄컞탲뷡릹ꎬ틲캪죈솦톧뗚뛾뚨싉뻶뚨쇋맂솢쾵춳훐뗄ꎨ컞탲뗄솿뛈ꎩ쟷폚벫듳뮯ꎻ뛾쫇뻹뫢폐탲뷡릹ꎬ죧뺧쳥뷡릹ꎬ쓜퓚폫훜캧붻뮻쓜솿뗄럢뇕쳥쾵훐탎돉ꎬ떫컞뷡릹퇝뮯뗄뿉쓜ꎻ죽쫇럇뻹뫢폐탲뗄뫄즢뷡릹⡤楳獩灡瑩癥瑲畣瑵牥?ꎬ뇈죧죎뫎짺컯뗄듦믮튪늻뛏쿻뫄쓜솿ꎬ컯훊ꎬ뫍탅쾢ꎬ헢훖뫄즢뷡릹횻쓜퓚쓜솿쇷ꆢ컯훊쇷뫍탅쾢쇷늻뛏뗄뾪럅쾵춳훐캬돖ꎨ춼?ꎩꆣ뫜쏷쿔ꎬ맾쏜뛙⡈慭楬瑯温뺭볃쒣탍훐뗄폅뮯랽램쫇뗚뛾샠뗄뻹뫢폐탲뗄뇭헷ꆣ뛸짺쏼쾵춳뫍샍뚯럖릤쫇뫄즢쾵춳훐럇뻹뫢폐탲뗄뗤탍ꆣ??⡡⤠뻟폐뻹뫢뷡릹뗄럢뇕쾵춳횻폫훜캧뮷뺳붻뮻쓜솿ꆣ???⡢?쿠룉폐탲⡣潨敲敮琠獴牵捴畲攩횻뿉쓜듦퓚폚뾪럅쾵춳ꆣ뫄즢뷡?릹쫇평쓜솿쇷ꎬ컯훊쇷ꎬ뫍뢺짊쇷살캬돖뗄ꆣ??춼㐮†뻹뫢폐탲뫍럇뻹뫢폐탲ꆣ??폐킩웴쏉톧헟냑훐맺뷼듺실뫳뗄풭틲맩횮캪훐맺뗄듳튻춳ꎬ훷헅냑훐맺쿱얷훞쓇퇹럖돉탭뛠킡맺ꆣ쯻쏇뾴늻떽얷훞솪쏋ꎬ쏀맺ꎬ뫍훐맺뷼쓪뗄랢햹ꎬ뫜듳돌뛈짏뗃틦폚맦쒣뺭볃ꆣ맊ꆰ듳튻춳ꆱ쫇뷱죕훐맺뗄놾뛸럇냼뢤ꆣ맽좥훐맺뗄컊쳢퓚뇕맘ퟔ쫘ꎬ떥튻벼쫵슷쿟ꆣ튻떩듲뾪맺쏅ꎬ뛠퇹랢햹ꎬ춬퇹뗄죋솦뫍풴ꎬ맽좥뗄쇓쫆퇝뇤캪뷱죕뗄폅쫆ꆣ떱좻ꎬ훐맺쓜퓚뷼뛾쪮쓪쪵탐뇈뷏폅쫆뗄랢햹햽싔ꎬ쫇틔샤햽뷡쫸뫳뾪럅뗄맺볊듳뮷뺳캪잰쳡뗄ꎨ쇖틣럲ꎬ닌랽ꎬ샮훜‱㤹?ꎩꆣ?폐죋뿉쓜믡컳뷢컒쏇뗄맛뗣캪뗘샭뮷뺳뻶뚨싛ꆣ웤쪵늻좻ꎬ컒쏇뗄맛뗣쫇짺첬ꎭ벼쫵ꎭ뺭볃ꎭ컄뮯ꎭ훆뛈쿠뮥ퟷ폃뗄뛠닣듎ꥰ뛠퇹뮯ꥰ뫍퇝뮯뗄뇧횤맛뗣ꎨ볻춼?ꎩꆣ?20
????춼㔮?샺쪷컄쏷뗄럖닭쫷ꆣ??퓚컄쏷랢햹뗄퓧웚ꎬ짺첬뮷뺳뛔벼쫵뗄톡퓱웰뻶뚨ퟷ폃ꎬ떫릤튵룯쏼닺짺틔뫳ꎬ벼쫵톡퓱죕틦쫜맺볊뺺헹뗄룱뻖뫍뿆톧뷌폽뗄펰쿬ꆣ벼쫵돉탍뫳ꎬ컄뮯훆뛈뗄퇝뮯ꎬ폖믡뛔짺첬뮷뺳닺짺짮풶뗄펰쿬ꆣ헢훖쿠뮥ퟷ폃ꎬ퓚쒳튻샺쪷쪱웚ꎬퟜ쓜쪶뇰훷튪뗄뻶뚨믺훆ꆣ틀뻝헢튻믺훆뗄풤퇔뫍에뛏ꎬ횻퓚솽룶럖닦뗣횮볤쿠뛔폐킧ꆣ퓚럖닦뗣뢽뷼뗄헇실벫듳ꎬ얼좻샺쪷쫂볾ꎬ냼삨룶죋뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ뛔톡퓱럖닦뗄슷뺶ꎬ뿉쓜믡폐훘듳뗄펰쿬ꆣ헢쪱ꎬ맛달욽뻹횵뗄뻶뚨싛럖컶늻웰ퟷ폃ꎬ샺쪷럖컶뫍룅싊럖컶뷏캪폐폃ꆣ뻍ퟜ쳥뛸퇔ꎬ럇쿟탔쾵춳뗄퇝뮯쒣쪽뿉틔럖샠뫍쒣쓢ꎬ쓑틔뺫좷풤퇔ꆣ헢쫇럇뻹뫢샭싛룸뻹뫢샭싛쪩볓뗄탞헽ꆣ???⠷?뷡싛ꎺ샍뚯럖릤랢햹뗄뢴퓓탔뫍짧믡퇝뮯뗄뛠퇹탔??훐맺튻뛈쇷탐뗄놾훷틥쏈톿싛볙짨룷룶컄쏷뚼쓜ퟔ랢닺짺쿖듺뗄샍뚯럖릤뫍닺튵룯쏼ꆣ쫀뷧뛠쫽랢햹훐맺볒뗄샺쪷ꎬ뛔헢퇹뗄맛뗣웄캪듦틉ꆣ?탂맅뗤캢맛뺭볃톧틔폅뮯캪믹뒡뗄웳튵샭싛ꎬ횻뾼싇뺲첬뗄뗄돉놾킧틦뗄ꎬ횻횻볆쯣놾뫍횪쪶뗄믽샛킧펦ꎬ늻뾼싇뺺헹맽돌훐ꎬ벼쫵횪쪶뗄뮻듺룼탂ꎬ튲늻뾼싇늻좷뚨탔뛔샍뚯럖릤뷸돌뗄펰쿬ꎬ뻍믡뗃돶짧믡랢햹떥쿲탔뗄쟷춬뷡싛ꆣ?컒쏇쪹폃럇쿟탔짺첬톧뗄뺺헹쒣탍ꎬ틽죫톧쾰뺺헹훐뗄컄뮯뫍탐캪틲쯘ꎬ퇐뺿뛠캬뢴퓓쾵춳퓚뮷뺳헇실쿂뗄뷡릹컈뚨탔ꎬ뷒쪾쇋샍뚯럖릤웰풴폚풴쿞훆쿂뗄쫐뎡뺺헹뗄쪵훊ꎬ횸돶샍뚯럖릤쫜떽뗄죽훘훆풼ꎬ틔샭뷢컷얷뫍훐맺짧믡퇝뮯뗄늻춬쒣쪽ꎬ첽쳖짺첬풼쫸쿂뿉돖탸랢햹뗄뗀슷ꆣ?컒쏇뗄릤ퟷ쫇뛔틑폐뻹뫢샭싛뗄늹돤뫍랢햹ꎬ뛸럇볲떥뗄엺움뫍럱뚨ꆣ쿟탔쫇뛔럇쿟탔뗄뷼쯆뫍볲뮯ꎬ뻹뫢쫇럇뻹뫢뗄쳘샽ꆣ뺭볃ퟷ캪튻쏅뺭퇩뿆톧ꎬ뮹퓚랢햹21
뗄돵웚뷗뛎ꆣ퓚훐맺쿖듺뺭볃톧뷸죫쿂튻룶냙쓪횮볊ꎬ컒쏇돏횿쾣췻훐맺컄쏷뗄뺭퇩뫍뷌통ꎬ쓜돉캪쫀뷧뺭볃톧닆뢻뗄튻늿럖ꆣퟷ캪퇏뢴횴헆맽뗄놱듳뗄톧죋ꎬ풸뫍듳볒릲춬얬솦ꎬ쪹훐맺뺭볃톧뷧쓜뛔쪱듺뗄컊쳢ퟷ돶룼뫃뗄믘듰ꆣ????닎뾼컄쿗? [1] Arrow, . “The Economic Implications of Learning-by-Doing,” Review of Economic Studies, 29, 155–73 (1962). [2] Arthur, . Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in Economy, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor (1994). [3] Ashby, . Design for a Brain, Wiley, New York (1960). [4] Bartholomew, . Stochastic Models for Social Processes, 3rd edition, Wiley, New York (1982). [5] Beckerꎬ. and . Murphy, “The Division of Labor, Coordination Costs, and Knowledge,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(4), 1137-1160 (1992). [6] Chandler, . Jr. Scale and Scope, Harvard University Press, Cambridge (1990). [7] Chen, P. “Origin of Division of Labor and a Stochastic Mechanism of Differentiability,” European Journal of Operation Research, 30, 246-250 (1987). [8] Chen, P. “Needham’s Question and China’s Evolution: Cases of Nonequilibrium Social Transition,” in G. P. Scott ed., Time, Rhythms, and Chaos in the New Dialogue with Nature, pp. 177-198, Iowa State University Press, Ames (1991). [9] Chen, P. “Imitation, Learning, and Communication: Central or Polarized Patterns in Collective Actions”, in A. Babloyantz ed., Self-Organization, Emerging Properties and Learning, pp. 279-286, Plenum, New York (1992). [10] 돂욽??떥튻킡얩뺭볃뷡릹쫇컒맺뎤웚뚯싒욶쟮ꆢ뇕맘ퟔ쫘뗄늡룹?죋쏱죕놨ꎬ맢쏷죕놨ꎬㄹ㜹?쓪ㄱ?퓂ㄶ죕ꆣ 嬱ㅝ?돂욽?컄쏷럖닭ꆢ뺭볃믬ꆢ뫍퇝뮯뺭볃톧ꎬ뺭볃뿆톧돶냦짧ꎬ놱뺩?㈰〰?ꆣ [12] Coase, R. “The Problem of Social Cost,” Journal of Law and Economics, 3(1), 1- 44 (1960). [13] Day, R. H. Complex Economic Dynamics, Vol. I. MIT Press, MA: Cambridge (1994). [14] Gardner, . and , “Connectance of Large Dynamical (Cybernetic) Systems: Critical Value for Stability,” Nature, 228, 784 (1970). [15] Goodwin, . “A Model of Cyclic Growth,” in ed. The Business Cycles in the Post-World War, Macmillian, London (1955),-221. [16] Gottlieb, B. The Family in the Western World, From the Black Death to the Industrial Age, Oxford University Press, Oxford (1993). [17] Houthakker, . “Economics and Biology: Specialization and Speciation,” Kyklos, 9(2), 181-189 (1956). [18] 믆죊폮ꎬ췲샺쪮컥쓪ꎬ훐뮪쫩뻖ꎬ놱뺩⠱㤸㈩ꆣ [19] 믆ퟚ훇ꎬ뮪놱뗄킡얩볒춥폫짧믡뇤잨ꎬ훐뮪쫩뻖ꎬ놱뺩⠱㤸㘩ꆣ?[20] 뷰맛쳎ꎬ쇵쟠럥ꎬ탋쪢폫캣믺?훐맺럢붨짧믡뗄뎬컈뚨뷡릹ꎬ뫾쓏죋쏱돶냦짧ꎬ뎤즳⠱㤸㐩ꆣ 22
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