SJTU
Project Evaluation
-The 5th Lecture
Dr. Hu Hao
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
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Agenda
Review (10’)
S1: Case study 1 – Economic analysis of an
industrial project (30’)
Project Social Evaluation (20’)
1st Break (2:00-2:10 pm)
S2: Case study 2 – Social Evaluation of a
paper factory (10’)
National Economical Evaluation (50’)
2nd Break (3:10-3:20pm)
S3: Case study 3 – A Highway Project (15’)
Value Engineering (30’)
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Economical Evaluation
National Economical Evaluation
Social Evaluation
Project
Evaluation
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Session 1
Case study 1
Economic analysis of an
industrial project
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Several Economical
Indicators
资产负债率=负债总计/资产总计
流动比率=流动资产总额/流动负债总额
速动比率
=（流动资产总额-存货）/流动负债总
额
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Four Objectives of the Macro
economy
充分就业
物价稳定
经济增长
国际收支平衡
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社会综合评价
根据国家的基本目标，在项目选择上把
效益目标、公平目标、环境目标和其他
影响社会发展的因素通盘考虑，对项目
进行多因素、多目标的综合分析评价，
从而选出并实施那些有助于实现国家最
终目标的项目.
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项目社会综合评价系统的构成
Hall 三维结构法
–逻辑维与项目评价
明确评价目的、范围、费用、效益、预测社会经
济情况
–时间维和项目评价
历史的综合描述，现状的系统分析和对未来的科
学预测
–专业维和项目评价
项目评价与各专业技术有着密切联系
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项目社会综合评价
一般工作程序
确定目标
确定评价范围
确定评价指标和标准
确定指标的权重
确定社会评价判据
社会综合评价
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项目社会模糊综合评价法
评价方法
–确定评价因素集U
–确定评语集V
–建立评价因素集U与评语集V之间的模糊关
系的单因素评价矩阵R
评价因素Ui对评语集内元素Vj的隶属度为Rij
–确定权重A
–模糊综合评价B=A*R
–模糊综合评价指标的处理
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案例分析
某纸浆厂项目社会综合评价
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Session 2
Evaluation Projects with the
Benefit/Cost Ratio Method
项目的费用-效益评估
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Economical, National Economical
and Social Evaluations
Project Evaluation
– Economical Evaluation
– National Economical Evaluation
– Social Evaluation
财务评价
–项目的盈利能力、清偿能力以及外汇平衡等
财务状况
–判定项目的财务可行性
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Economical, National Economical
and Social Evaluations
国民经济评价
–按照资源合理配置的原则，从国家整体角度
考察项目的效益和费用，通过计算项目对国
民经济的净贡献，评价项目的经济合理性。
社会评价
–重大工程项目和公共事业项目还需考虑其他
社会政治目标，如地区或阶层间的利益分配、
就业、环境改进和社会安定等。
费用-效益分析是进行国民经济和社会评
价的有效办法之一
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财务评价与国民经济评价的
区别---三个例子
例一：节能水泵
例二：化工溶剂厂
例三：新建城市道路
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财务评价与国民经济评价的
区别
价格“失真”
存在外部效果
–没有在项目的财务收益或支出中包括进去的
那些效益和费用
存在不可计量的效果
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影子价格
价格失真
–影子价格
–影子工资
–影子汇率
–统一的社会折现率
影子价格
–影子价格是从国家角度出发，更能反映资源
价值的合理价格
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外部效果
项目的产出或投入并未全部地计入工程
项目的收益或支出中去，通常这类效益
或费用统称为外部效果。
外部效果的几种情况
–由“价格失真”造成的外部效果
–由于价格的合理升降造成的外部效果
–技术性外部效果
–相邻部门效果
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无形效果
无形效果—难以用货币进行度量的效益
和费用
处理方法
–首先计算实物指标
–设法估计各种实物指标的货币价值
–如：
对消费者进行询问
参照公共设施以外类似物品的市场价格
用公共工程的费用来反映效益
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公共项目方案评选
案例：某高速公路项目
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Difficulties Inherent in Project
Evaluation of Public Works
There is no profit standard to be used as a
measure of financial effectiveness.
There is no easy-to-quantify money
measures of many of the benefits
provided by a public project.
There frequently is little or no direct
connection between the project and the
public, who are the owners
Whenever public funds are used, there is
likely to be political influence
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Difficulties Inherent in Project
Evaluation of Public Works (2)
The usual profit motive as a stimulus
to effective operation is absent
Public works usually are more
circumscribed by legal restrictions
than private companies
The correct interest rate to be sued
for discounting benefits and costs of
public projects is often controversial
and politically sensitive.
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The B/C Ratio Method
The B/C Ratio
– Is defined as the ratio of the equivalent
worth of benefits to the equivalent worth of
costs
– The equivalent worth utilized is customarily
AW or PW, or FW
– The interest rate used for public projects
Private sector: the rate leads to the profit
maximization or cost minimization
Public sector: the rate should lead to a
maximization of social benefits
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Calculation of B/C Ratio
1. Conventional B/C Ratio
– B/C=AW(benefits of the proposed
project)/AW(total costs of the proposed project)
=B/(CR+O&M)
2. Modified B/C Ratio
– B/C=(B-O&M)/CR
– B is annual worth of benefits of the proposed
project
– CR is capital recovery cost
– O&M is equivalent annual operating and
maintenance expense
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Calculation of B/C Ratio
1. Conventional B/C Ratio
– B/C=PW(benefits of the proposed
project)/PW(total costs of the proposed
project)
=PW(B)/I+PW(O&M)
2. Modified B/C Ratio
– B/C=PW(B)-PW(O&M)/I
A project is acceptable if B/C ratios
are greater than or equal to
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Evaluating Independent
Projects by B/C Ratios
In general, independent projects are
deemed worthwhile investments if their
B/C ratios are >=
Certain types of items (., salvage value)
can be looked as added benefits rather
than as reduced costs
pp. 512-513 Example 14-1
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Comparison of Mutually Exclusive
Alternatives
The incremental B/C ratio method is used
when several mutually exclusive
alternatives are being considered
The objective is to find the alternative with
the maximum profit potential, which is not
necessarily the alternative having the
largest overall B/C ratio.
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Comparison of Mutually Exclusive
Alternatives
Procedures
– The alternatives are first ranked in order of
increasing total equivalent worth of costs
– Starting with the lowest equivalent cost
alternative, which is compared with the
next higher equivalent cost alternative
– If ⊿B/ ⊿C>=1, moving the next one;
otherwise the current lower equivalent cost
alternative is selected
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Session 3
Value Engineering
价值工程
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价值工程的产生和发展
1947年起源于美国
“石棉事件”
–通用电气公司的. Miles
–石棉板由一种不易燃烧的纸替换
–总结出“价值分析”（VA)：在保证同样功
能的前提下降低成本的比较完整的科学方法
日本的贡献
– VE 1955年传到日本，与质量管理和工业管
理工程相结合
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价值
Value=Function/Cost
Or V=F/C
提高价值的方法：
– F不变，降低C
– C不变，提高F
– C增加一些，F有很大的提高
– C降低，F提高
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价值工程
定义
–价值工程的总目标是以最低的总费用，使产
品或作业具有必备的功能
–价值工程的核心是对产品或作业进行功能分
析
–价值工程是一种有组织有领导的活动
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三个阶段与七个步骤
三个阶段
–分析问题
–综合研究
–方案评价
七个步骤
–对象的选择
–目标的选定
–搜集情报
–功能分析
–方案评价和选择
–试验和提案
–活动成果的评价
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情报资料的收集
情报的种类
–用户要求方面的情报
–销售方面的情报
–科学技术方面的情报
–制造和供应方面的情报
–成本方面的情报
–政府和社会有关部门法规、条例等方面的情
报
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功能分析、整理和评价
功能分析的四个方面
– 基本功能
– 辅助功能
– 使用功能
– 外观功能
功能整理
功能评价
– “01”评分法
– “04”评分法
– 定量评分法
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功能的选定
ABC分析法
价值系数判别法
–成本系数=零件成本/总成本
–价值系数=功能评价系数/成本系数
–价值系数=1，<1, >1
最合适区域法
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方案的评价和选择
提出改进的方案
– 头脑风暴法
– 哥顿法
– 台尔菲法
两种方案评价
– 概略评价
– 详细评价
方案评价的方法
– 评分法
– 功能加权法
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试验与提案
活动成果的评价与总结
–企业经济成果的评价
包括若干技术、经济指标
–方案实施的社会效果
评价
总结
