탬퇇욽:믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔폫믵뇒헾닟춸쏷훆뛈뗄탋웰믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔폫믵뇒헾닟춸쏷훆뛈뗄탋웰3탬퇇욽ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:놾컄ퟅ훘첽쳖믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔폫믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔횮볤뗄맘쾵,쒿뗄퓚폚쮵쏷믵뇒헾닟춸쏷훆뛈쓜릻탋웰뗄튻룶맘볼틲쯘퓚폚믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷탔폐샻폚쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧탔ꆣ퓚뇪ힼ뗄ꆰ쪱볤늻튻훂탔ꆱ샭싛샯쏦,믵뇒헾닟쫇럱춸쏷뛔믵뇒헾닟뗄킧펦쫇쎻폐펰쿬뗄,틲캪퓚헢샠샭싛샯쏦,뺭볃훷쳥쓜릻쪹폃쯹폐뿉믱뗃뗄탅쾢탎돉폫뺭볃쾵춳쿠튻훂뗄ꆢ컞욫뗄맀볆ꆣ떫컊쳢뗄맘볼퓚폚,헢훖볙짨뗄믹놾잰쳡퓚쪵볹훐늢늻췪좫돉솢ꆣ떱뾼싇떽뺭볃훷쳥뛔뺭볃퓋탐뷡맻뫍뺭볃퓋탐맽돌뗄늻췪좫죏횪쪱,믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔뛔폚듙뷸뺭볃훷쳥뗄톧쾰맽돌,컈뚨뫍틽떼릫훚뗄춨헍풤웚,뷸뛸쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧탔뻍웰ퟅ훁맘훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ맘볼듊:늻췪좫죏횪ꆡ릫훚풤웚ꆡ풤웚틽떼ꆡ믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔ꆡ믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔튻ꆢ틽ꆡ퇔퓚맽좥쿠떱뎤튻룶쪱웚,훐퇫틸탐쫇튻룶듸폐벸탭짱쏘즫닊뗄믺릹,튻냣늢늻쏷좷탻늼믵뇒헾닟뗄쒿뇪,튲늻쿲릫훚쿪쾸쮵쏷쯹닉좡헾닟뗄풭틲폫쒿뗄뗈뗈ꆣ뛸ퟔ짏룶쫀볍90쓪듺틔뫳,풽살풽뛠뗄맺볒뾪쪼훂솦폚믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄쳡룟,쳡룟믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈헽돉캪쫀뷧짏풽살풽뛠맺볒뗄튻쿮훘튪훆뛈톡퓱ꆣ쓇쎴캪쪲쎴튪쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷뛈?퓚샭싛첽쳖짏,듳솿컄쿗훷튪쫇듓춸쏷탔폫훐퇫틸탐퓰죎훆횮볤뗄맘쾵살퇐뺿믵뇒헾닟춸쏷훆뛈뗄탋웰(Cukierman,2000;FaustandSvensson,2001;EijffingerandMacro,2002)ꆣ떫Thornton(2002)잿뗷횸돶,믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷탔횻쫇쫖뛎뛸럇쒿뗄,룹놾탔뗄컊쳢퓚폚믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷탔쓜럱쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧탔;죧맻춸쏷탔뷶폐샻폚퓶잿훐퇫틸탐뗄퓰죎탔뛸늻샻폚믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔뗄쳡룟,쓇쎴헢퇹뗄춸쏷탔튲늻믡캪죋쯹뷓쫜ꆣCharlesFreedman(2002)튲잿뗷,퓚듙쪹훐퇫틸탐늻뛏퓶볓믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄놳뫳폐솽룶맘볼탔틲쯘,튻룶쫇믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔폫퓰죎탔ꆢ뿉뾿탔횮볤뗄맘쾵,튻룶퓲쫇믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔폫믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ내헕Lucas뗄샭탔풤웚샭싛,튪쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧탔,쯆뫵펦쫇붵뗍믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷탔,틔탎돉틢쇏횮췢뗄헾닟뇤뚯,믲퓬돉훐퇫틸탐폫릫훚횮볤뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆ꆣ죧뫎뷢쫍샭탔풤웚샭싛폫믵뇒헾닟춸쏷훆뛈횮볤뗄늻튻훂?놾컄죏캪,샭탔풤웚샭싛뗄믹놾잰쳡횮튻쫇뺭볃훷쳥뛔뺭볃퓋탐뻟폐췪좫뗄죏횪,쓜릻탎돉폫뺭볃쾵춳쿠튻훂뗄ꆢ컞욫뗄맀볆ꆣ떫헢훖볙짨퓚쪵볹훐늢늻췪좫돉솢,훷튪뇭쿖퓚:뗚튻,뛔뺭볃퓋탐뷡맻뗄늻췪좫죏횪ꆣퟔ짏룶쫀볍70쓪듺샭탔풤웚샭싛뗃떽맣랺펦폃틔뫳,듳솿컄쿗뚼퇐뺿믲싛횤쇋샭탔풤웚쒣탍뗄뛠훘뻹뫢(multipleequilibria),벴샭탔풤웚뷢뗄럇캨튻탔컊쳢(Black,1974;Taylor,1977;BoldrinandWoodford,1990뗈)ꆣ틲듋,벴쪹샭탔풤웚쒣탍듦퓚뻹뫢뷢,튲듦퓚뛠훖쫕솲슷뺶뫍뷡맻뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ뗚뛾,뛔뺭볃퓋탐맽돌뗄늻췪좫죏횪ꆣ폐쿞탅쾢폫탅쾢돉놾뻶뚨쇋죋쏇뛔폚ꆰ헦쪵뺭볃쒣탍ꆱ(Truemodel)ꆪꆪꆪ벴쪵볊뺭볃퓋탐맽돌ꆪꆪꆪ횻폐쒣뫽뗄죏쪶ꆣ틲듋,헽죧Orphanides(2003)뗈쯹횸돶뗄,놾훊짏,죋쏇튲뚼뫃뇈쫇볆솿뺭볃톧볒,쯻쏇춨3ꆡ낲믕듳톧뺭볃톧풺,폊헾뇠싫230039,뗧ퟓ탅쿤:hfblackcat@ꆣퟷ헟쪮럖룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋뗄놦맳붨틩ꆣ24
2006쓪뗚8웚맽쿠펦뗄닎쫽쒣탍늻뛏맀볆뫍룼탂쿠펦뗄닎쫽ꆣ퓚뇪ힼ뗄ꆰ쪱볤늻튻훂탔ꆱ샭싛샯쏦,믵뇒헾닟쫇럱춸쏷뛔폚믵뇒헾닟뗄킧펦쫇쎻폐펰쿬뗄,틲캪퓚헢샠샭싛샯쏦,뺭볃훷쳥뿉틔ힼ좷ꆢ컞욫뗘풤횪캴살,틲듋,믵뇒헾닟뗄ퟮ훕킧맻죧뫎,훷튪좡뻶폚믵뇒헾닟쫇럱쪱볤튻훂ꆣ떫떱뾼싇떽뺭볃훷쳥뛔뺭볃퓋탐뷡맻뫍뺭볃퓋탐맽돌뗄늻췪좫죏횪쪱,믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔뛔폚듙뷸뺭볃훷쳥뗄톧쾰맽돌,컈뚨뫍틽떼릫훚뗄춨헍풤웚,뷸뛸쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧탔뻍웰ퟅ훁맘훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ놾컄훷튪틔늻췪좫죏횪뫍훐퇫틸탐뗄풤웚틽떼캪럖컶믹뒡,ퟅ훘듓믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔폫믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔횮볤뗄맘쾵살첽쳖믵뇒헾닟춸쏷훆뛈탋웰뗄짮닣듎풭틲벰훘튪틢틥ꆣ놾컄뷡릹죧쿂,뗚뛾늿럖룸돶믹놾쒣탍;뗚죽늿럖듓샭싛짏럖컶떱뺭볃훷쳥뛔뺭볃퓋탐뷡맻뫍뺭볃퓋탐맽돌듦퓚늻췪좫죏횪쪱,믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔폫폐킧탔뗄맘쾵;뗚쯄늿럖쪵횤퇐뺿훐맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔폫폐킧탔횮볤뗄맘쾵;ퟮ뫳쫇뷡싛폫헾닟붨틩ꆣ퓚뷸튻늽럖컶횮잰,폐뇘튪뛔믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄쓚몭뷸탐쏷좷뷧뚨ꆣ평폚믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈벸뫵짦벰떽믵뇒헾닟뗄룷룶랽쏦,늢쟒퓚늻뛏쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷탔랽쏦,룷맺ퟶ램튲늻뺡쿠춬,틲듋쒿잰뛔폚믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷뛈늢쎻폐튻룶춳튻뗄뚨틥ꆣEijffinger뫍Geraats(2002,2005)룹뻝믵뇒헾닟닙ퟷ쯹짦벰뗄룷룶랽쏦,듓탐헾춸쏷ꆢ뺭볃춸쏷ꆢ맽돌춸쏷ꆢ헾닟춸쏷ꆢ닙ퟷ춸쏷컥룶랽쏦살닢뛈믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷뛈;Hahn(2002)죏캪믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈펦냼삨믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪춸쏷뛈ꆢ횪쪶춸쏷뛈뫍닙ퟷ춸쏷뛈;Walsh(2001)횸돶,캪쇋죏쪶뫍쇋뷢믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔뗄훷튪쓚죝,뻍탨튪죏쪶믵뇒헾닟뻶닟폫쪵쪩훐뗄튻킩맘볼틲쯘:믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪ꆢ훐퇫틸탐뛔믵뇒헾닟뒫떼뗄움맀틔벰훐퇫틸탐쯹틀뻝뗄쿠맘탅쾢;컒맺톧헟킻욽ꆢ돌뻹샶(2005)퓲붫믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뮮럖캪3샠:쒿뇪ꆢ횪쪶뫍뻶닟춸쏷뛈;뛔폚웤훐뗄횪쪶춸쏷뛈,튻냣냼삨탅쾢쇏뫍풤닢뗄춸쏷뛈ꆣ떫탅쾢쇏훷튪쫇뿍맛뗄,뛸풤닢퓲듸폐뷏듳뗄훷맛에뛏틲쯘,퓚쪵볊럖컶훐헢솽샠춸쏷뛈펦룃럖뾪ꆣ틲듋,놾컄죏캪,퇐뺿믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷뛈,펦훷튪냑컕힡믵뇒헾닟뻶닟폫쪵쪩훐뗄쯄듳맘볼틲쯘:믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪춸쏷뛈;뺭볃탅쾢쇏뗄춸쏷뛈;믵뇒헾닟뻶닟뗄춸쏷뛈,벴믵뇒헾닟쫇죧뫎훆뚨뗄,뻶닟틀뻝쫇쪲쎴;틔벰훐퇫틸탐폐맘풤닢뗄춸쏷뛈ꆣ뛾ꆢ믹놾쒣탍Lucas(1976)횸돶,뫳맋탔뺭퇩쒣탍좱랦캢맛뺭볃샭싛믹뒡,쫇튻훖럇뷡릹탔쒣탍ꆣ평폚Taylor(1979)ꆢCalvo(1983)ꆢRoberts(1995)ꆢMcCallum(1997)뗈죋뗄릱쿗,잰햰탔쒣탍벴탂뾭뛷쮹쒣탍캪믵뇒헾닟럖컶쳡릩쇋튻룶폐폃뗄뿲볜,웤믹놾탎쪽죧쿂:ꛐ(t=Eꛐtt+1+axt+ꛅ)xt=Etxt+1-b(it-Eꛐtt+1)+ꛇ()쪽(211)캪듺뇭ퟜ릩룸뗄Phillips쟺쿟,Eꛐtt+1쫇틀뻝t웚탅쾢뛔t+1웚뗄춨믵엲헍ퟶ돶뗄풤웚,춨믵엲헍폫닺돶좱뿚xt돊헽뇈맘쾵,벴쾵쫽a>0,ꛅt뇭쪾릩룸돥믷ꆣ쪽(212)캪듺뇭ퟜ탨쟳뗄IS쟺쿟,Etxt+1쫇틀뻝t웚탅쾢뛔t+1웚뗄닺돶ퟶ돶뗄풤웚,믵뇒헾닟릤뻟it캪뛌웚샻싊,쾵쫽b>0뻶뚨ퟅ닺돶좱뿚뛔샻싊뇤뚯뗄랴펳돌뛈,ꛇt뇭쪾탨쟳돥믷ꆣ짨릩룸돥믷폫탨쟳돥믷뻹ퟱ톭튻벶ퟔ믘맩맽돌,퓲폐:ꛅt=ꛈꛅt-1+ꛅ()ꛇt=ꛑꛇt-1+ꛍ()웤훐0ꇜꛈꇜ1ꆢ0ꇜꛑꇜ1,ꛎtꆢꛍt캪쇣뻹횵뫍랽닮뗄돊헽첬럖늼뗄쯦믺뇤솿ꆣ떱ꛈ=ꛑ=0,돥믷쫇췪좫쯦믺뗄;뛸떱ꛈ=ꛑ=1쪱,돥믷퓲ퟱ톭쯦믺폎ퟟ맽돌ꆣ믵뇒헾닟뗄쒿뇪몯쫽(쯰쪧몯쫽)캪:25
탬퇇욽:믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔폫믵뇒헾닟춸쏷훆뛈뗄탋웰m12in[ꚵx]()i2t+(ꛐt-ꛐ32)tꆡꆡ믵뇒헾닟뗄쒿뇪뻍쫇퓚(211)뫍(212)풼쫸쿂춨맽믵뇒헾닟릤뻟it뗄톡퓱살쪵쿖쒿뇪몯쫽(215)뗄ퟮ킡뮯,튲벴쪵쿖닺돶좱뿚뫍춨헍욫닮볓좨욽랽뫍뗄ퟮ킡뮯ꆣ평(211)ꆢ(212)쪽뿉횪,탂뾭뛷쮹쒣탍뗄튻룶춻돶쳘뗣쫇붫풤웚틲쯘쓉죫쇋뫪맛뺭볃럖컶횮훐,잿뗷쇋릫훚풤웚뛔뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐뗄훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣ쯦ퟅ뷰죚믺릹뗄늻뛏랢햹,룶죋쯹돖뷰죚닺뗄늻뛏퓶볓폫훐퇫틸탐닺쯹햼뇈훘뗄훰붥복킡,믵뇒헾닟킧펦뗄ꆰ쓚짺탔ꆱ튲풽살풽잿,벴믵뇒헾닟킧펦뗄랢믓퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏좡뻶폚뺭볃훷쳥쓜럱닉좡폫훐퇫틸탐뗷뿘헾닟쿠튻훂뗄탐뚯ꆣ틲듋,듓뷼쓪살훐퇫틸탐믵뇒헾닟뗄쪵볹살뾴,믵뇒헾닟킧펦뗄랢믓틑풽살풽뷨훺폚믵뇒헾닟뗄풤웚틽떼릦쓜,벴훐퇫틸탐퓚쪵탐믵뇒헾닟닙ퟷ쪱횻쫇캢뗷,뛸훷튪욫훘폚탅쾢뗄릩룸뫍럖컶,틽떼릫훚뫏샭탎돉풤웚,횧돖믵뇒헾닟뗄쪵쪩ꆣ죧탂컷삼뗈맺뗄릫룦닙ퟷ(openmouthoperations),쏀솪뒢믵뇒헾닟닙ퟷ훐뗄샻싊욽뮬(smoothing)믺훆(춬랽쿲킡럹뛈뗷헻),뗂맺ꆢ얷훞훐퇫틸탐뗈뗄샻싊ퟟ새뗷뿘쒣쪽뗈뗈ꆣ헽죧잰쏦쯹쫶,떱뾼싇떽뺭볃훷쳥뛔쿠맘뺭볃퓋탐뗄늻췪좫죏횪쪱,믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷탔뛔폚컈뚨뫍틽떼릫훚뗄춨헍풤웚,뷸뛸쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧탔뻍웰ퟅ훁맘훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ볲떥뗘쮵훷튪뇭쿖퓚:뗚튻,떱뺭볃훷쳥뛔뺭볃퓋탐뷡맻듦퓚늻좷뚨풤웚쪱,춨맽쳡룟믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪뗄춸쏷탔뫍훐퇫틸탐폐맘풤닢뗄춸쏷탔뗈,뿉틔폐킧뗘캪릫훚뗄춨헍풤웚쳡릩튻룶ꆰ쏻틥쎪ꆱ,뇜쏢릫훚풤웚뗄컉싒ꆣ뗚뛾,떱뺭볃훷쳥뛔뺭볃퓋탐맽돌듦퓚늻췪좫죏횪쪱,춨맽쳡룟뺭볃탅쾢쇏뗄춸쏷탔뫍훐퇫틸탐뻶닟뗄춸쏷탔뗈,뿉틔볓쯙릫훚뗄톧쾰맽돌,복킡릫훚뗄풤닢컳닮,퓶잿릫훚뛔믵뇒헾닟뗄샭뷢뫍횧돖ꆣ죽ꆢ믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔폫믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔뗄맘솪:샭싛쒣탍럖컶(튻)풤웚쒣탍듦퓚뛠훘뻹뫢뗄쟩뿶쿂믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷탔폫폐킧탔ꆣ퓚(211)뫍(212)뗄풼쫸쿂붫쒿뇪몯쫽(215)뛔샻싊it캢럖뿉뗃ퟮ폅뮯뗄튻벶쳵볾:axt=-ꚵ(ꛐt-ꛐ3)()붫(311)쪽듺죫(211)쪽뷢뗃:ꛐ2-1)ꚵt=(ꚵ+aEꛐtt+1+2-1-1(ꚵ+a)ꚵꛅt+2a(ꚵ+2a)ꛐ3()ꆡꆡ평쪽(312)뿉횪,쿠맘뗄ힴ첬뇤솿(Statevariables)캪ꛐ3뫍ꛅt,닉폃McCallum(1983)쯹쳡돶뗄ퟮ킡ힴ첬뇤솿램(minimal2state2variableprocedure),늢뾼싇떽ꛐt뗄훍뫳킧펦,뿉짨ꛐt캪:ꛐt=b0ꛅt+b1ꛐ3+b2ꛐt-1()ꆡꆡ룹뻝(313)폐:Eꛐtt+1=b0ꛅt+1+b1ꛐ3+b2ꛐt=b0ꛈꛅt+b1ꛐ3+b2(b0ꛅt+b1ꛐ3+b2ꛐt-1)()붫(314)듺죫(312)쪽뗃:ꛐ2-1)(ꚵ+a)ꚵꛅꚵt+(t=(b0ꛈ+b0b2+1b1ꚵ+b1b2+2a)(ꚵ+2-1a)ꛐ3+2b2(ꚵ+2-1a)ꚵꛐt-1()붫(315)쪽폫(313)쪽쿠뇈뷏폐:b0=(b0ꛈ+b0b2+1)(ꚵ+2-1a)ꚵ()22-1b1=(b0ꚵ+b1b2ꚵ+a)(ꚵ+a)()b2=2b2(ꚵ+2-1a)ꚵ()룹뻝(318)쪽폐:26
2006쓪뗚8웚2b2=0,믲b2=(ꚵ+a)ꚵ-1ꆡꆡ맊쒣탍폐쮫훘뷢,벴룃샭탔풤웚쒣탍듦퓚ퟅ뛠훘뻹뫢ꆣ샭탔풤웚뻹뫢뗄뛠훘탔컊쳢훁뷱죔쫇튻룶믽벫뗄퇐뺿쇬폲,튻킩뺭볃톧볒폇싇뗘뾴듽뻹뫢뗄늻좷뚨탔컊쳢,죏캪헢쫇샭탔풤웚샭싛뗄훘듳좱쿝;뛸튻킩뺭볃톧볒퓲놧ퟅ탩컞훷틥뗄첬뛈,붫듋쫓캪ퟔ좻ꆣ샭탔풤웚뻹뫢뗄뛠훘탔컊쳢룦쯟컒쏇,ퟝ쪹뺭볃훷쳥뚼쫇췪좫샭탔뗄,뛔뺭볃뮷뺳뗄죏쪶튲쫇췪놸뗄,떫뛔뺭볃퓋탐뗄뷡맻죔듦퓚늻췪좫죏횪ꆣ퓚듦퓚ퟅ뛠훘뻹뫢뗄뿉쓜탔쪱,훐퇫틸탐춨맽쳡룟믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪뗄춸쏷탔뫍폐맘풤닢뗄춸쏷탔뗈,볓잿폫릫훚뗄탅쾢붻쇷,뻍뿉뛔컈뚨뫍틽떼릫훚풤웚웰떽훁맘훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣSvensson뫍Woodford(2003)뺭맽퇐뺿뫳죏캪,퓚듦퓚뛠훘뻹뫢뗄쟩뿶쿂,릫늼훐퇫틸탐ퟔ짭뗄풤웚쓜릻잱퓚뗘캪릫훚뗄춨헍풤웚쳡릩튻룶붹뗣(focalpoint),늢붫폐샻폚믱뗃튻룶캩튻뗄ꆢ뫏틢뗄뻹뫢뗣ꆣ랴횮,죧맻믵뇒헾닟늻춸쏷,릫훚늻횪뗀믵뇒헾닟뗄좷쟐쒿뇪,늻쇋뷢훐퇫틸탐뛔뺭볃퓋탐뗄ힼ좷에뛏,늻쟥돾훐퇫틸탐뗄탐뚯닟싔,쓇쎴훐퇫틸탐놾짭뻍뿉쓜돉캪튻훖늻좷뚨탔뗄풴춷,뛸볓훘릫훚풤웚뗄컉싒ꆣ퓚듦퓚ퟅ뛠훘뻹뫢쪱,뎣뎣믡폕랢첫퇴뫚ퟓ뻹뫢(SunspotEquilibrium),헢샠뻹뫢폫믹놾틲쯘(fundamentals)컞맘,뛸쪱뎣틔늻컈뚨뗄췢늿틲쯘캪웰틲(죧릫훚풤웚랢짺쇋뇤뚯),벴뷶뷶틲캪탐캪헟좷탅뻹뫢쫇죧듋뗄ꆣ짏룶쫀볍60쓪듺쒩훁80쓪듺돵,냩쯦ퟅ벸듎퇏훘뗄뺭볃쮥췋,컷랽쫀뷧폈웤쫇쏀맺뺭샺쇋뎤웚ퟟ룟쟒벫늻컈뚨뗄춨믵엲헍ꆣ떫ퟔ짏룶쫀볍80쓪듺틔뫳,쏀맺뗄춨믵엲헍뇣튻횱캬돖퓚뷏뗍뗄쮮욽짏,돉릦쪵쿖쇋뺭볃뗄룟퓶뎤뗍춨헍ꆣ뛔듋,튻킩뺭볃톧볒붫80쓪듺틔잰뗄뺭볃뇭쿖맩뷡캪쪯폍볛룱늨뚯틽웰뗄릩룸돥믷ꆣ떫뫜뛠뺭볃톧볒뛔듋쳡돶쇋틬틩,죧Delong(1997)죏캪,돖탸뗄룟춨믵엲헍쫂쪵짏퓧퓚쪯폍캣믺횮잰뻍틑뺭뾪쪼쇋;Claridaetal1(1998)튲쳡돶훊틉,죏캪떥뒿뗄릩룸돥믷쓑틔쇮죋탅럾뗘뷢쫍헢솽룶쪱웚퓚뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐랽쏦쯹듦퓚뗄뻞듳닮틬ꆣCharietal1(1996)ꆢChristianoetal1(2000)쳡돶쇋풤웚쿝?(expectationtrap)뗄룅쓮,쯼쫇횸헢퇹튻훖ힴ첬,벴릫훚춨헍풤웚뗄짏짽웈쪹훐퇫틸탐늻뗃늻닉좡삩헅탔뗄믵뇒헾닟,벴ꆰ냼죝ꆱ(accommodate)릫훚뗄춨헍풤웚ꆣ뛔폚풤웚쿝?뗄랢짺믺훆폐ퟅ쫽훖늻춬뗄뷢쫍,떫믹놾쮼쿫뚼쫇튻훂뗄,벴쫗쿈쫇평폚릫훚춨헍풤웚뗄짏짽ꆣ뛸튻떩릫훚춨헍풤웚짏짽늢닉좡쿠펦탐뚯뫳,뻍붫쪹훐퇫틸탐뒦폚솽쓑뗄뺳뗘:튪쎴닉좡ꆰ냼죝탔ꆱ믵뇒헾닟,떫믡쪹쪵볊춨헍싊짏짽;랴횮퓲폐뿉쓜떼훂뺭볃쮥췋ꆣ캪쇋볦맋닺돶쒿뇪,훐퇫틸탐뗄ퟮ폅톡퓱붫뿉쓜쫇ꆰ냼죝ꆱ릫훚뗄춨헍풤웚ꆣ듋쪱,릫훚춨헍풤웚뗄닺짺뫍랢햹뇣폐ퟅퟔ컒쪵쿖뗄믺훆(Self2fulfilling),뺭볃뻍뿉쓜틲듋뗸죫풤웚쿝?ꆣClaridaetal.(1998)죏캪,퓚릫훚춨헍풤웚뻟폐ퟔ컒쪵쿖뗄믺훆쿂,벴쪹쎻폐살ퟔ믹놾쏦뗄돥믷,튲믡랢짺춨믵엲헍뫍닺돶쮮욽뗄돖탸탔늨뚯ꆣCharietal.(1996)죏캪,풤웚쿝?캪쏀맺짏룶쫀볍쇹ꆢ웟쪮쓪듺뗄춨믵엲헍쳡릩쇋뫜뫃뗄뷢쫍ꆣ쓇쎴,퓚믹놾쏦쎻폐랢짺뇤뮯쪱,릫훚뗄춨헍풤웚캪쪲쎴믡짏짽?헢훷튪뮹쫇좡뻶폚훐퇫틸탐믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪벰웤춸쏷돌뛈ꆣ죧맻믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪쫇쏷좷뗄(캬돖볛룱쮮욽뗄컈뚨),늢쟒뻟폐뫜뫃뗄춸쏷탔,쪹릫훚좷탅훐퇫틸탐늻믡닉좡ꆰ냼죝탔ꆱ뗄믵뇒헾닟,릫훚뗄춨헍풤웚뻍늻믡춻좻짏짽,풤웚쿝?튲뻍늻믡랢짺쇋ꆣퟔ짏룶쫀볍90쓪듺탂컷삼쪵탐춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆틔뫳,쪵볹횤쏷룃훖믵뇒헾닟훆뛈퓚캬돖볛룱쮮욽컈뚨,듙뷸뺭볃욽컈퓶뎤랽쏦쫇ힿ폐돉킧뗄ꆣ헢웤훐튻룶훘튪풭틲벴퓚폚춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆뻟폐뫜뫃뗄춸쏷탔ꆰ,쎪힡ꆱ(anchoring)쇋릫훚뗄춨헍풤웚,듓뛸뇜쏢쇋풤웚쿝?뗄랢짺ꆣ(뛾)뛔헦쪵뺭볃쒣탍뗄늻췪좫죏횪ꆢ믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷탔폫폐킧탔ꆣ죋쏇뛔뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐뗄폐쿞죏횪,뻶뚨쇋죋쏇뛔폚ꆰ헦쪵쒣탍ꆱ(truemodel)ꆪ벴쪵볊뺭볃퓋탐ꆪꆪꆪ횻폐쒣뫽뗄죏쪶ꆣ놾훊짏죋쏇뻍죧춬볆솿뺭볃톧볒쓇퇹,쎿웚맛달훷튪뗄뺭볃뇤솿,춨맽쿠펦27
탬퇇욽:믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔폫믵뇒헾닟춸쏷훆뛈뗄탋웰뗄닎쫽쒣탍늻뛏맀볆뫍룼탂쿠펦뗄닎쫽,벴릫훚뒦폚튻훖폀뻃뗄톧쾰맽돌떱훐ꆣ내헕Macret뫍Sarent(1988),Evans뫍Honkapohja(2001),Orphanides뫍Williams(2003),뺭볃훷쳥붫틀뻝틔쿂뗄쒣탍,춨맽ퟮ킡뛾돋램늻뛏룼탂쿠펦뗄닎쫽:ꛐet+1=c0,t+c1ꛐ(,)ꆡꆡ짨Xt=(1,ꛐ)tꇤ,C)t=(c0,t,c1,tꇤ,퓲춨맽ퟮ킡뛾돋램뛔닎쫽뗄늻뛏룼탂뿉뇭쪾캪틔쿂뗄뗝맩탎쪽:Ct=Ct-1+ktR-1tX(ꛐtt-XꇤtCt-1)()Rt=Rt-1+k(tXtXꇤt-Rt-1)()ꆡꆡ웤훐kt=1Πt,벴쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄퇓뎤,쫽뻝쇏뗄샛믽,뛔닎쫽뗄맀볆횵붫훰붥쟷폚헦쪵횵ꆣ늻쓑샭뷢,릫훚풤웚뗄ힼ좷폫럱붫훷튪좡뻶폚:튻쫇쿠맘쫽뻝쇏뗄믱좡뫍샛믽;뛾쫇쪱볤,벴뿉틔춨맽늻뛏뗄톧쾰,랴뢴탞뚩풤닢컳닮살쳡룟풤닢뗄ힼ좷탔;죽쫇훐퇫틸탐믵뇒헾닟뗄뿉풤횪탔ꆣ평듋컒쏇뿉틔횪뗀:뗚튻,죧맻쿠맘뺭볃탅쾢쇏늻춸쏷믲춸쏷뛈늻룟,컞틉믡퓶볓릫훚믱좡쿠맘쇏뗄쓑뛈,퇓뮺릫훚뗄톧쾰맽돌,볓듳릫훚뗄풤닢컳닮ꆣ뗚뛾,훐퇫틸탐춨맽릫뾪쯹쪹폃뗄뺭볃쒣탍,쿲릫훚쮵쏷뛔믵뇒헾닟뒫떼믺훆뗄움맀뗈,믡듳듳볓쯙릫훚뗄톧쾰맽돌,퓶잿릫훚뛔뺭볃퓋탐뗄죏쪶ꆣ뗚죽,춨맽쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뻶닟뗄춸쏷탔,쿲릫훚쮵쏷훐퇫틸탐뛔뺭볃퓋탐뗄에뛏뫍헾닟닟싔뗈,쓜릻쪹릫훚룼뫃뗘샭뷢뫍풤횪훐퇫틸탐뗄헾닟탐뚯,붵뗍쫐뎡늨뚯뗄뿉쓜탔,쪵쿖믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧뒫떼ꆣ샽죧,떱훐퇫틸탐폫릫훚뛔펰쿬뺭볃랢햹뗄틲쯘폐쿠뷼뗄뾴램쪱,훐퇫틸탐뛔쿠맘탅쾢뗄춸슶붫믡틽떼릫훚닉좡믲쳡잰닉좡폫훐퇫틸탐뗷뿘헾닟쿠튻훂뗄탐뚯ꆣ떱훐퇫틸탐탅쾢뇭쏷뺭볃뿉쓜쏦쇙잱퓚뗄춨헍톹솦쪱,쫐뎡샻싊믡쿠펦짏짽;랴횮,죴훐퇫틸탐탅쾢쿔쪾뺭볃뿉쓜퓢쫜뢺쏦돥믷쪱,쿠맘샻싊뻍믡쿂붵ꆣBlinderetal1(2001)춨맽뛔199011ꆪ200111쏀맺벰얷훞뛌웚뫍뎤웚샻싊뗄맬벣뷸탐쪵횤퇐뺿뫳죏캪,릫훚풤웚뛔훐퇫틸탐쯹뗷뿘뗄뛌웚샻싊폫뎤웚샻싊횮볤뗄맘쾵좷쪵폐뫜듳펰쿬;릫훚풤웚풽컈뚨,믵뇒헾닟폫뺭볃퓋탐횮볤뗄맘쾵튲뻍풽컈뚨뫍뿉풤횪ꆣ틲캪릫훚풤웚퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏좡뻶폚훐퇫틸탐뗄캴살뗷뿘헾닟,쯹틔믵뇒헾닟뗄뿉풤볻탔풽잿,믵뇒헾닟튲뻍풽폐킧ꆣ뗚쯄,죧맻훐퇫틸탐폫릫훚뗄죏쪶늻튻훂,춨맽볓잿붻쇷튲폐샻폚쯵킡짵훁쿻돽헢훖죏쪶짏뗄닮뻠ꆣ늻뛏퓶잿뗄믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔,쯤좻늻쓜췪좫쿻돽훐퇫틸탐폫릫훚죏쪶짏뗄늻튻훂,떫좴듳듳붵뗍쇋릫훚풤웚폫훐퇫틸탐헾닟랢짺벤쇒돥춻뗄뿉쓜탔(CharlesFreedom,2002)ꆣ듓헢룶뷇뛈살붲,헽쫇믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷탔쓜릻쪹훐퇫틸탐뗄믵뇒헾닟룼뫃뗘랢믓ퟷ폃ꆣ쯼폐샻폚벰쪱붫헾닟좡쿲뒫떼훁릫훚,쪹폐맘헾닟쓜릻뗃떽맣랺죏춬,틽떼릫훚뫏샭탎돉풤웚,횧돖믵뇒헾닟뗄쪵쪩ꆣ쯄ꆢ훐맺뗄쪵횤퇐뺿튪쪵횤퇐뺿믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔폫믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔횮볤뗄맘쾵,쫗쿈뻍뇘탫뛔믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔뗄뻟쳥쓚죝뷸탐뷧뚨늢폨틔솿뮯,헢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿평폚Eijffinger뫍Geraats(2002ꆢ2005)뗄뷜돶릤ퟷ뛸믱뗃춻웆탔뷸햹ꆣEijffinger뫍Geraats룹뻝믵뇒헾닟닙ퟷ쯹짦벰뗄룷룶랽쏦,듓탐헾춸쏷ꆢ뺭볃춸쏷ꆢ맽돌춸쏷ꆢ헾닟춸쏷ꆢ닙ퟷ춸쏷컥룶랽쏦살닢뛈믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷뛈;웤훐쎿튻쿮폖럖뇰냼몬죽룶ퟓ쿮,쎿튻ퟓ쿮뗄싺럖뻹캪튻럖;좻뫳뛔헢컥쿮럖횸쫽뷸탐볓ퟜ뗃떽튻룶춸쏷뛈ퟜ횸쫽,웤ퟮ듳횵캪15럖;쯻쏇쪹폃헢훖횸쫽짨볆럖뇰뛔냄듳샻퇇뒢놸틸탐ꆢ탂컷삼뒢놸틸탐ꆢ얷훞퇫탐ꆢ쏀솪뒢뗈9룶랢듯맺볒뫍뗘쟸훐퇫틸탐뗄믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뷸탐쇋움맀ꆣ평폚믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄룄뇤쫇붥뷸뗄,늻믡뇭쿖캪쎿룶퓂ꆢ쎿룶벾뛈뚼랢짺뇤뮯,쯹틔퓚쪵횤퇐뺿훐뻍쓑틔뛔쒳튻룶맺볒믲뗘쟸뷸탐ퟝ쿲럖컶,뛸튻냣쫇쪹폃뛠룶맺볒믲뗘쟸춬튻쪱웚뗄뫡뷘28
2006쓪뗚8웚쏦쫽뻝뷸탐믘맩믲쿠맘탔럖컶ꆣ퓚뻟쳥럖컶훐튻냣쫇닉폃솽훖랽램,튻훖쫇쪹폃믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄ퟜ횸쫽뷸탐믘맩믲쿠맘탔럖컶,죧Demertzis뫍Hallett(2004)샻폃Eijffinger뫍Geraats(2002)뇠훆뗄믵뇒헾닟춸쏷횸쫽,룹뻝볲떥쒣탍:Y=ꚵ+ꛋX,뛔믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫춨헍ꆢ닺돶뗄맘쾵뷸탐쇋믘맩럖컶ꆣ쯻쏇랢쿖욽뻹춨헍싊ꆢ욽뻹닺돶쮮욽뛔춸쏷뛈횸쫽뷸탐믘맩뗃떽뗄쾵쫽퓚춳볆짏늻쿔훸,떫믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫춨믵엲헍랽닮(늨뚯럹뛈)뗄뢺쿠맘맘쾵뇈뷏쏷쿔,뛸믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫닺돶뗄늨뚯럹뛈퓲돊튻뚨뗄헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ쇭튻훖쫇쪹폃쒳튻럖샠횸쫽뷸탐퇐뺿,죧ChortareasꆢStasavage뫍Sterne(2002)쏅퇐뺿쇋훐퇫틸탐풤닢춸쏷뛈늢릹붨쇋쿠펦횸쫽폨틔솿뮯,쯻쏇쪹폃1995ꆪ1999쓪웚볤87룶맺볒뗄쿠맘쫽뻝뛔믵뇒헾닟풤닢춸쏷뛈폫춨헍ꆢ닺돶뗄맘쾵뷸탐쇋쿠맘탔럖컶,웤퇐뺿뷡맻쿔쪾믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔폫춨헍쮮욽ꆢ춨헍랽닮뻹돊뢺쿠맘맘쾵;늢쟒,믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔폫닺돶랽닮튲춬퇹돊뢺쿠맘맘쾵;Chortareasetal1쳘뇰횸돶,쯤좻헢늢늻ퟣ틔횤쏷훐퇫틸탐뺭볃풤닢뗄춸쏷탔튻뚨쓜릻붵뗍닺돶쮮욽뗄늨뚯럹뛈,떫쯼훁짙잿쇒뇭쏷,믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔뗄퓶잿늢늻죧쒳킩톧헟쯹떣탄뗄쓇퇹뿉쓜믡퓶볓닺돶쮮욽뗄늨뚯돌뛈ꆣ훐맺죋쏱틸탐ퟔ1984쓪헽쪽싄탐훐퇫틸탐횰쓜,뛸쳡룟믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈퓲쫇듓1995쓪틔뫳훰늽뾪쪼뗄,죧1995쓪ꆶ훐맺죋쏱틸탐램ꆷ헽쪽맦뚨컒맺믵뇒헾닟뗄쫗튪쒿뇪쫇컈뚨뇒횵,듓1996쓪뾪쪼내벾뛈쿲짧믡릫늼룷닣듎믵뇒릩펦솿뗈ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇뿉틔춨맽뛔1985ꆪ1994쓪뫍1995ꆪ2005쓪헢솽룶뷗뛎믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐쟩뿶뗄뛔뇈럖컶,퇐뺿컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄쳡룟폫믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ뛔폚믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔뗄뫢솿,펦틔쓜럱쪵쿖믵뇒헾닟뗄ퟮ훕쒿뇪캪훷튪틀뻝ꆣ컒맺믵뇒헾닟뗄ퟮ훕쒿뇪쫇컈뚨뇒횵,춬쪱듙뷸뺭볃랢햹,틲듋뾼달컒맺믵뇒헾닟뗄킧펦,쫗쿈뻍튪뾴볛룱쮮욽뗄뿘훆쟩뿶;헢웤훐냼삨솽룶횸뇪:춨믵엲헍싊뗄욽뻹쮮욽벰웤늨뚯럹뛈,늨뚯럹뛈틔뇪ힼ닮살뫢솿ꆣ뛔폚뺭볃랢햹뗄쒿뇪,쿖듺뺭볃톧뗄랢햹틑쪹죋쏇웕뇩뷓쫜쇋헢퇹튻룶맛뗣,벴믵뇒헾닟듓뎤웚살쮵늻쓜펰쿬떽헦쪵뺭볃뇤솿,쯼훷튪쫇캪뺭볃랢햹뒴퓬튻룶욽컈뗄뮷뺳ꆣ틲듋,뾼달헢튻쒿뇪뗄믵뇒헾닟쪵쿖킧펦,펦훷튪뾴쫇럱쪵쿖쇋뺭볃뗄욽컈퓶뎤,벴뺭볃퓶뎤싊뗄늨뚯쟩뿶,춬쪱닎뾼뺭볃퓶뎤뗄욽뻹쮮욽ꆣ(튻)컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈횸쫽뗄릹붨ꆣ컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷훆뛈뗄붨솢짐뒦폚돵벶뷗뛎,틲듋Eijffinger뫍Geraats(2002)럇뎣쿪쾸뻟쳥뗄럖샠뻍늻쓜췪좫헕냡훁컒맺ꆣ퇐뺿컒맺믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷돌뛈,뮹펦훷튪듓듳뗄랽쏦냑컕힡믵뇒헾닟뻶닟폫쪵쪩훐뗄쯄듳맘볼틲쯘:믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪춸쏷탔;뺭볃탅쾢쇏뗄춸쏷탔;믵뇒헾닟뻶닟뗄춸쏷탔뫍훐퇫틸탐폐맘풤닢뗄춸쏷탔ꆣ11쒿뇪춸쏷탔ꆣ(1)믵뇒헾닟폐럱쏷좷뗄쒿뇪?죴쫇뛠훘쒿뇪,폐컞쏷좷뗄쿈뫳듎탲ꆣꆡꆡ컞쏷좷쒿뇪=0,ꆡꆡ뛠훘쒿뇪떫컞쏷좷뗄쿈뫳듎탲=015,ꆡꆡ떥튻쒿뇪,믲뛠훘쒿뇪떫폐쏷좷뗄쿈뫳듎탲=1ꆣ(2)쫗튪쒿뇪폐컞쏷좷뗄쫽솿뷧뚨ꆣꆡꆡ컞=0,ꆡꆡ폐=1ꆣ21뺭볃탅쾢쇏뗄춸쏷탔ꆣ(1)폫믵뇒헾닟쿠맘뗄훷튪쫽뻝:믵뇒릩펦솿ꆢ춨헍쮮욽ꆢGDP쮮욽ꆢ풴샻폃돌뛈쫇럱내벾뛈릫늼?ꆡꆡ릫늼쫽뻝늻뎬맽솽룶=0,ꆡꆡ릫늼쫽뻝늻뎬맽죽룶=015,29
탬퇇욽:믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔폫믵뇒헾닟춸쏷훆뛈뗄탋웰ꆡꆡ좫늿릫늼=1ꆣ(2)훐퇫틸탐쫇럱춨맽릫뾪쯹쪹폃뗄뺭볃쒣탍쿲릫훚쮵쏷믵뇒헾닟뗄뇤뮯뿉쓜믡뛔뺭볃닺짺쪲쎴펰쿬,죧뫎뛔뺭볃닺짺펰쿬뗈?ꆡꆡ럱=0,ꆡꆡ쫇=1ꆣ31믵뇒헾닟뻶닟뗄춸쏷탔ꆣ(1)훐퇫틸탐쫇럱릫늼쿪쾸뗄믵뇒헾닟럖컶놨룦(늻뎬맽죽룶퓂)?ꆡꆡ럱=0,ꆡꆡ쫇=1ꆣ(2)훐퇫틸탐쫇럱릫뾪믵뇒헾닟뻶닟쫇죧뫎탎돉뗄?ꆡꆡ늻릫뾪믵뇒헾닟캯풱믡뗄믡틩볍튪=0,ꆡꆡ릫뾪믵뇒헾닟캯풱믡뗄믡틩볍튪=1ꆣ41풤닢춸쏷탔ꆣ(1)훐퇫틸탐쫇럱뛔춨믵엲헍뫍닺돶쮮욽ퟷ뻟쳥뗄쫽솿풤닢(틔벾뛈캪떥캻)?ꆡꆡ럱=0,ꆡꆡ쫇=1ꆣ(2)훐퇫틸탐쫇럱뛔춨믵엲헍뫍닺돶쮮욽ퟷ뻟쳥뗄쫽솿풤닢(틔쓪캪떥캻)?ꆡꆡ럱=0,ꆡꆡ쫇=1ꆣ(뛾)컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈횸쫽뗄볆쯣ꆣ퓚뗚튻뷗뛎1985ꆪ1994쓪,컒맺믵뇒헾닟뗄쒿뇪쫇랢햹뺭볃뫍컈뚨뇒횵,떫컞쏷좷뗄쿈뫳듎탲,뛔폚웤쯻랽쏦뗄춸쏷탔,퓚헢튻뷗뛎뻹컞쳥쿖,틲듋헢튻뷗뛎믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄ퟜ횸쫽=015ꆣ쿂쏦ퟅ훘럖컶뗚뛾뷗뛎1995ꆪ2005쓪,컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈횸쫽뗄쟩뿶:11쒿뇪춸쏷뛈횸쫽ꆣ1995쓪ꆶ훐맺죋쏱틸탐램ꆷ헽쪽맦뚨컒맺믵뇒헾닟뗄쫗튪쒿뇪쫇컈뚨뇒횵,늢틔듋듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤,듓뛸캪컒맺믵뇒헾닟뗄쮳샻쪵쪩쳡릩쇋믹놾뗄램싉놣횤ꆣ퓚틔뫳뗄쪮쓪훐,쯤좻컒맺뺭볃랢햹뗄첬쫆뢴퓓뛠뇤,떫헢튻뺫짱뻹뗃떽쇋뫜뫃뗄맡뎹뫍쳥쿖ꆣ1995ꆪ1997쓪,컒맺퇓탸ퟔ1993쓪쿂냫쓪뾪쪼쪵탐뗄쫊뛈듓뷴뗄랴춨믵엲헍뗄믵뇒헾닟,늢돉릦쪵쿖쇋뺭볃뗄죭ퟅ슽,솬컷랽뺭볃톧볒튲늻뗃늻돐죏헢듎랴춨믵엲헍뗄돉릦ꆣ헢튻싖뫪맛뗷뿘쓜릻뇈뷏돉릦,튻룶훘튪풭틲퓚폚,훐퇫틸탐퓚뒦샭랢햹뺭볃폫컈뚨뇒횵헢솽듳쒿뇪뗄맘쾵짏,쎻폐쿱틔췹쓇퇹,퓚솽룶쒿뇪뗄톡퓱짏맋듋쪧뇋,ퟳ폒캪쓑ꆣ헢싖뫪맛뗷뿘뗄믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪뫜쏷좷,뻍쫇랴춨믵엲헍,벴냑컈뚨뇒횵럅퓚쫗캻,춬쪱늻룣튻떶쟐,퓚쫊뛈뿘훆ퟜ솿뗄춬쪱,뛔뷡릹뷸탐뗷헻,볈놣횤뺭볃뗄쫊뛈퓶뎤,폖늻펰쿬쫊뛈듓뷴믵뇒헾닟뗄쪵쪩ꆣ헢퇹튻살,훐퇫틸탐뻍쎻폐퓚믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪짏ퟳ폒튡냚,늢쟒늻맜살ퟔ룷랽뗄톹솦폐뛠듳,훐퇫틸탐쪼훕죧튻뗘볡돖냑랴춨믵엲헍럅퓚쫗캻ꆣ쎻폐헢훖뻶탄,랴춨믵엲헍쫊뛈듓뷴뗄믵뇒헾닟늻믡돉릦(샮쓮햫,2003)ꆣ1998ꆪ2002쓪,쏦뛔뺭볃탎쫆뗄탂뇤뮯,맺볒쫊쪱쳡돶쇋쪵탐컈붡뗄믵뇒헾닟ꆣꆰ컈ꆱ,쳥쿖ퟅ훐퇫틸탐쪼훕붫컈뚨믵뇒ꆢ컈뚨뷰죚럅퓚쫗캻ꆰ;붡ꆱ,퓲쳥쿖ퟅ훐퇫틸탐뗄헾닟늢늻쫇튻훖쿻벫뗄럀폹헾닟,뛸쫇퓚놣횤뷰죚컈뚨폫낲좫뗄잰쳡쿂,춨맽뗷뿘믵뇒릩룸뫍탅듻뗄쫽솿폫뷡릹뗈,볦맋뺭볃뗄쫊뛈퓶뎤ꆣ퓚듋웚볤,믵뇒헾닟튻뛈쏦쇙ퟅ뿕잰뗄톹솦,탭뛠뺭볃톧헟뫍룷훖퇐뺿믺릹뛔컈붡뗄믵뇒헾닟쳡돶훊틉,죏캪맽폚놣쫘,늻럻뫏떱쪱훐맺뗄뺭볃탎쫆,짵훁횱뷓횸퓰컈붡뛾ퟖ뻍쫇욫뷴,튪쟳훘탂훆뚨늢쪵탐삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟ꆣ뛔듋,떱쪱뗄훐퇫틸탐믵뇒헾닟쮾듷룹폐쮾뎤쏷좷횸30
2006쓪뗚8웚돶,퓚캴살쿠떱뎤튻룶쪱웚쓚,훐맺뗄믵뇒헾닟뮹붫튻죧볈췹뗘컈붡쿂좥;쯻잿뗷,늻쟐쪵볊뗘룣삩헅탔믵뇒릩펦,쫇뗤탍뗄캪쇋퇛잰샻틦뛸컾짼뎤풶샻틦뗄냜헐ꆣ2003쓪틔뫳,컒맺뺭볃뾪쪼냚췑춨믵뷴쯵,돊쿖돶볓쯙랢햹뗄첬쫆,떫튲쯦횮돶쿖쇋늿럖탐튵뫍뗘쟸춶퓶뎤맽뿬맽쏍뗈컊쳢ꆣ훐맺죋쏱틸탐볌탸횴탐컈붡뗄믵뇒헾닟,룼뛠뗘힢틢뷸탐쫊쪱쫊뛈뗄풤뗷ꆢ캢뗷,ퟛ뫏퓋폃뛠훖믵뇒헾닟릤뻟,뫏샭뿘훆믵뇒탅듻ퟜ솿,ퟅ솦폅뮯탅듻뷡릹ꆣ쪵볹횤쏷,헫뛔뺭볃뻖늿맽죈뫍춨헍톹솦닉좡뗄쫊뛈듓뷴뗄헾닟좡쿲쫇헽좷뗄,믵뇒릩펦솿춬뺭볃퓶뎤쮮욽믹놾쿠쫊펦,볈뷏뫃뗘싺ퟣ쇋뺭볃퓶뎤뗄탨튪,폖캬뮤쇋뺭볃뷰죚뗄컈뚨,뇈뷏ힼ좷뗘쳥쿖쇋ꆰ컈붡ꆱ믵뇒헾닟뗄쓚몭ꆣ듋췢,듓믵뇒헾닟횴탐뷡맻살뾴,떱춨믵엲헍싊듓1994쓪뗄ퟮ룟쮮욽훰늽믘실틔뫳,뇣튻횱뗃떽쇋뷏뫃뗄뿘훆;쯤좻2004쓪CPI춨헍싊퓸쫽퓂춻웆5%뗄쮮욽,떫퓚룷훖뗷뿘헾닟뗄ퟷ폃쿂뫜뿬뇣믘실훁헽뎣쮮욽ꆣ룹뻝틔짏럖컶,뿉틔죏캪,1995ꆪ2005쓪훐맺죋쏱틸탐튻횱쫇틔컈뚨뇒횵ퟷ캪믵뇒헾닟뗄쫗튪쒿뇪,춬쪱볦맋뺭볃랢햹;벴뛠훘쒿뇪떫폐쏷좷뗄쿈뫳듎탲(1럖)ꆣ웹뷱캪횹,컒맺뛔믵뇒헾닟뗄쫗튪쒿뇪짐컞쏷좷뗄쫽솿뷧뚨(0럖)ꆣퟛ뫏틔짏럖컶,뿉쟳뗃컒맺믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪춸쏷뛈횸쫽=1ꆣ21뺭볃탅쾢쇏춸쏷뛈횸쫽ꆣ1996쓪훐맺죋쏱틸탐뾪쪼내벾뛈쿲짧믡릫늼룷닣듎믵뇒릩펦솿ꆢ춨헍쮮욽ꆢGDP쮮욽(015럖)ꆣ춬쪱,훐맺죋쏱틸탐뾪쪼붫믵뇒릩펦솿ퟷ캪믵뇒헾닟뗄훐뷩쒿뇪,헢퇹뻍쪹뗃짧믡룷뷧퓚에뛏믵뇒헾닟뗄횴탐쟩뿶쪱폐쇋뇈뷏쟐쪵뿉뾿뗄틀뻝,튲쪹컒맺믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷탔뾪쪼폐쇋쪵훊탔쓚몭ꆣ풴샻폃돌뛈뛔폚뺭볃퓋탐첬쫆ꆢ춨헍믲춨쯵톹솦뗄에뛏폐ퟅ늻뿉쳦듺뗄ퟷ폃,떫컒맺쒿잰뮹늻쓜벰쪱릫늼헢랽쏦뗄좨췾쫽뻝(0럖)ꆣ평폚뺭볃샭싛뫍볆솿뺭볃쫖뛎뗄늻뛏췪짆,뺭볃쒣탍틑돉캪믵뇒헾닟훆뚨헟늻뿉믲좱뗄폐킧릤뻟,죧쏀솪뒢뗄FRBΠUS쒣탍,볓쓃듳뗄QPM쒣탍,펢맺뗄MM쒣탍틔벰얷훞훐퇫틸탐뗄AWM쒣탍뗈ꆣ훐맺죋쏱틸탐ퟔ2001쓪뗚뛾벾뛈뾪쪼쪹폃벾뛈볆솿뺭볃쒣탍,떫뛔폚쒣탍뗄럖컶뷡맻쒿잰뮹늻뛔췢헽쪽릫뾪늢쿲릫훚쮵쏷ꆣ틲듋헢랽쏦뗄춸쏷탔퓚컒맺짐컞쪵훊탔쳥쿖(0럖)ꆣퟛ뫏틔짏럖컶,뿉쟳뗃컒맺뺭볃탅쾢쇏춸쏷뛈횸쫽=015ꆣ31믵뇒헾닟뻶닟춸쏷뛈횸쫽ꆣ훐맺죋쏱틸탐듓2001쓪뗚튻벾뛈웰내벾퓚훐맺죋쏱틸탐췸햾짏쿲짧믡릫늼ꆶ믵뇒헾닟럖컶놨룦ꆷ(1럖),쎿듎랢늼뗄놨룦뚼믡엻슶탭뛠훘튪탅쾢,틲듋맣캪짧믡룷뷧쯹맘힢,틑돉캪짧믡룷뷧럖컶뫍풤닢믵뇒헾닟늻뿉믲좱뗄훘튪틀뻝ꆣ떫믵뇒헾닟캯풱믡뗄믡틩볍튪쒿잰뮹쫴폚쓚늿놨룦(0럖)ꆣퟛ뫏틔짏럖컶,뿉쟳뗃컒맺믵뇒헾닟뻶닟춸쏷뛈횸쫽=1ꆣ41풤닢춸쏷뛈횸쫽ꆣ룷맺믵뇒헾닟뗄쪵볹쿔쪾,뛔뺭볃랢햹뗄풤닢퓚훐퇫틸탐믵뇒헾닟뻶닟훐헽냧퇝ퟅ풽살풽훘튪뗄뷇즫ꆣ틔쏀맺캪샽,퓚쎿듎솪뒢릫뾪쫐뎡캯풱믡(FOMC)뗄믡틩짏,솪뒢맙풱뚼튪쳡릩폐맘캴살춨헍ꆢ닺돶벰웤쯻쿠맘뺭볃뇤솿뗄풤닢쫽뻝,듓뛸캪믵뇒헾닟뗄뻶닟헟쏇쳡릩뇘탨뗄탅쾢쇏ꆣ떫쒿잰훐맺죋쏱틸탐뫜짙뛔췢릫늼쿠맘풤닢뷡맻,룼컞쏷좷ꆢ뿉닎뾼뗄쫽솿풤닢,틲듋,뿉틔죏캪,풤닢춸쏷뛈횸쫽=0ꆣ룹뻝틔짏룷쿮럖횸쫽,뿉쟳뗃뗚뛾뷗뛎컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄ퟜ횸쫽=215ꆣ(죽)솽뷗뛎뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐쟩뿶뗄뛔뇈ꆣ퓚뗚튻뷗뛎1985ꆪ1994쓪,CPI춨헍싊뗄욽뻹쮮욽(%)=11116,뇪ힼ닮=ꇆ(ꛎ-Eꛎ2)ΠN31
탬퇇욽:믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔폫믵뇒헾닟춸쏷훆뛈뗄탋웰=5141;GDP퓶뎤싊뗄욽뻹쮮욽(%)=10126,뇪ힼ닮=3157ꆣ퓚뗚뛾뷗뛎1995ꆪ2005쓪,CPI춨헍싊뗄욽뻹쮮욽(%)=3102,뇪ힼ닮=5116;GDP퓶뎤싊뗄욽뻹쮮욽(%)=8185,뇪ힼ닮=1117ꆣ뇭1믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈횸쫽폫뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐쟩뿶뗄뛔뇈(1985ꆪ1994폫1995ꆪ2005)샠뇰믵뇒헾닟욽뻹춨믵춨믵엲헍싊욽뻹GDPGDP퓶뎤싊쪱볤춸쏷뛈횸쫽엲헍싊(%)뗄뇪ힼ닮퓶뎤싊(%)뗄뇪ힼ닮1985ꆪ19940151111651411012631571995ꆪ20052153102511681851117ꆡꆡ힢:룹뻝ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷꆶꆢ훐맺죋쏱틸탐춳볆벾놨ꆷ쿠맘룷웚뗄쫽뻝볆쯣뛸뗃,2005쓪쫽뻝좡ퟔ맺볒춳볆뻖췸햾ꆣ평뇭1뿉볻,퓚뗚튻뷗뛎훐,쪵볊맺쏱쫕죫퓶뎤쯙뛈뷏뿬,욽뻹듯떽솽캻쫽,떫늨뚯튲뇈뷏듳;폫듋춬쪱,컞싛쫇춨믵엲헍싊뮹쫇웤늨뚯럹뛈뻹듯떽쇋뺪죋뗄쮮욽(ퟮ룟캪1994쓪뗄2411%,ퟮ뗍뗄1990쓪튲죔좻듯떽쇋311%)ꆣ뛸ퟔ1995쓪틔뫳,떱춨믵엲헍싊듓1994쓪뗄ퟮ룟쮮욽훰늽믘실틔뫳,쯤좻죔폐늨뚯,떫늨뚯럹뛈틑듳캪쯵킡;폫듋춬쪱,뺭볃욽컈룟쯙퓶뎤,늨뚯럹뛈믹놾짏퓚7%ꆪ10%횮볤ꆣ훚쯹훜횪,퓚뗚뛾뷗뛎,컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뿕볤쿠뇈폚뗚튻뷗뛎틑듳캪쯵킡,듋췢뮹퓢쫜쇋퇇훞뷰죚캣믺뫍춨믵뷴쯵뗄돥믷,췢살틲쯘뛔컒맺뺭볃뗄펰쿬튲죕틦퓶듳,떫헻룶뫪맛뺭볃뗄퓋탐ힴ뿶좴듳캪룄짆,헢웤훐튻룶벫웤훘튪뗄풭틲벴쫇훐퇫틸탐믵뇒헾닟짏뗄훘듳뇤뮯,냼삨믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄룄짆ꆣ룹뻝잰쏦컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈횸쫽뗄볆쯣뿉횪,뗚뛾뷗뛎컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄뇤뮯훷튪뇭쿖퓚:뗚튻,믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪뗄춸쏷탔뗃떽쇋뫜듳쳡룟ꆣ퓚뗚뛾뷗뛎,컒맺믵뇒헾닟뗄ퟮ훕쒿뇪쫇럇뎣쏷좷뗄,벴쫗쿈컈뚨뇒횵,춬쪱듙뷸뺭볃랢햹;벴뇣쫇퓚춨믵뷴쯵뗄쓇튻뛎쪱웚,컒쏇퓚닉좡룷훖듫쪩듙뷸뺭볃랢햹뗄춬쪱,튲쪼훕볡돖쫊뛈듓ꆰ뷴ꆱ뗄믵뇒헾닟,볈럀춨믵뷴쯵,튲럀춨믵엲헍ꆣ뗚뛾,뺭볃탅쾢쇏뗄춸쏷탔뫍믵뇒헾닟뻶닟뗄춸쏷탔퓚뗚뛾뷗뛎뗃떽쇋뫜듳룄짆,뷏뫃뗘틽떼쇋쫐뎡뗄풤웚,퓶잿쇋룷랽쏦뛔믵뇒헾닟뗄샭뷢폫횧돖,듓뛸쳡룟쇋믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧뒫떼ꆣ샽죧,2003쓪쿂냫쓪,쏦뛔뺭볃듦퓚뻖늿맽죈뗄쫆춷,훐퇫틸탐쫗쿈쳡잰ꆰ듲헐뫴ꆱ,쮵쏷훐퇫틸탐뗄에뛏ꆣ쯦뫳쎿돶첨튻쿮뗷뿘듫쪩훐퇫틸탐뚼쿲릫훚ퟶ돶쿪쾸뗄뷢쫍폫쮵쏷,춨맽ꆶ믵뇒헾닟럖컶놨룦ꆷ벰쪱ꆢힼ좷뗘럖컶뫪맛뺭볃ꆢ믵뇒탅듻뗄퓋탐ힴ뿶,듦퓚뗄컊쳢벰캴살뗄헾닟좡쿲뗈ꆣퟮ훕룷랽믹놾짏듯돉쇋릲쪶,죏춬쇋훐퇫틸탐뗄에뛏,헾뢮쿠맘늿쏅ꆢ짌튵틸탐ꆢ웳튵뗈룷랽쏦닉좡튻훂뗄탐뚯,뿘훆탅듻폫춶뗄맽뿬퓶뎤,떽2004쓪쿂냫쓪,뫪맛뗷뿘뻍좡뗃쇋쏷쿔뗄돉킧,맽뿬뗄듻뿮퓶뎤뗃떽뿘훆,맽룟뗄춶퓶뎤믘실떽헽뎣쮮욽,컯볛짏헇뗄쫆춷튲뗃틔폐킧틖훆ꆣ컥ꆢ뷡싛폫헾닟붨틩컷랽톧헟뛔폚믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔뗄쿠맘퇐뺿,듳뛠뗃돶쇋쿠떱샖맛뗄뷡맻ꆣ뛸룹뻝잰쏦뗄샭싛럖컶,폈웤쫇컒맺뗄쪵횤퇐뺿,룼볓퇩횤쇋믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔뗄헽쿲맘쾵ꆣ헽틲캪죧듋,쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷뛈틑돉캪튻훖맺볊쟷쫆,쯼폐샻폚벰쪱붫폐맘헾닟좡쿲뒫떼훁릫훚,틽떼릫훚뫏샭탎돉풤웚,횧돖훐퇫틸탐믵뇒헾닟뗄쪵쪩ꆣ룹뻝짏튻뷚뗄볆쯣뿉횪,쒿잰컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈횸쫽캪215,폫싺럖810쿠뇈뮹폐뷏듳닮뻠ꆣ내헕맺볊믵뇒믹뷰ퟩ횯ꆶ믵뇒뫍뷰죚헾닟춸쏷뛈솼뫃탐캪ힼ퓲:풭퓲탻퇔ꆷ뗄튪쟳,뛔뇈맺췢뗄뺭퇩,컒맺뮹탨튪뷸튻늽퓶잿믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷뛈ꆣ룹뻝컒맺뗄쪵볊쟩뿶,뿉뾼싇듓틔쿂죽룶랽쏦얬솦:뗚튻,뷸튻늽쳡룟믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪뗄춸쏷탔ꆣ믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔쫗튪뗄튪쟳뻍쫇믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪뗄32
2006쓪뗚8웚춸쏷탔,떱뷱룷맺믵뇒헾닟훆뛈ퟜ뷡웰살뿉틔맩쓉캪솽룶랽쏦:떥튻쒿뇪(컈뚨뇒횵)뮹쫇쮫쒿뇪(컈뚨뇒횵뫍뺭볃랢햹);쫇럱캪컈뚨뇒횵짨훃쏷좷뗄쫽솿쒿뇪ꆣ춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆뻍쫇붫떥튻쒿뇪폫쏷좷뗄춨믵엲헍쫽솿쒿뇪솽헟쿠뷡뫏ꆣ쏀맺뫍훐맺쪵탐뗄뚼쫇쮫쒿뇪훆,쟒늻캪볛룱컈뚨짨훃쏷좷뗄쫽솿쒿뇪ꆣ얷쏋쪵탐뗄튲쫇쮫쒿뇪훆,떫춬쪱짨뚨쏷좷뗄춨믵엲헍쒿뇪ꆣ룹뻝훐맺뗄쪵볊쟩뿶,뇊헟죏캪뿉틔뾼싇,튻랽쏦,볌탸쪵탐쮫훘쒿뇪훆;춬쪱짨뚨튻룶쏷좷뗄춨믵엲헍싊쟸볤ꆣ헢퇹볈늻믡펰쿬훐퇫틸탐ힷ쟳쮫훘쒿뇪뗄쇩믮탔,춬쪱폖쓜릻쪹컒쏇쿭폐춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆쯹듦퓚뗄튻킩훷튪폅뗣,늢폐샻폚붫ퟔ1995쓪틔살컒맺튻킩뫃뗄믵뇒헾닟쪵볹맦랶뮯ꆢ훆뛈뮯ꆣ뗚뛾,뷸튻늽쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뻶닟뗄춸쏷탔ꆣ쒿잰컒맺믵뇒헾닟캯풱믡쎿듎랢늼뗄탂컅뚼쫇쪹폃뷏풭퓲뗄폯퇔,죃죋뫜쓑듓훐뗃돶헽좷뗄샭뷢뫍에뛏;믵뇒헾닟캯풱믡쎿듎믡틩뻙탐뗄쪱볤튲늻만뚨,폖늻쳡잰룦횪릫훚,늻샻폚릫훚룼뫃뗘냑컕믵뇒헾닟ퟟ쿲ꆣ폫맺볊맟샽쿠뇈뷏,컒맺믵뇒헾닟뻶닟뮷뷚맽뛠ꆢ쪱웚맽뎤,늻샻폚믵뇒헾닟뗄벰쪱ꆢ폐킧뒫떼ꆣ틲듋,뮹뇘탫튪뷸튻늽쳡룟컒맺믵뇒헾닟뻶닟뗄춸쏷탔ꆣ뗚죽,쳡룟훐퇫틸탐폐맘풤닢뗄춸쏷탔ꆣ릫훚퓚탎돉풤웚쪱뿉쓜ퟮ탨튪뗄뻍쫇훐퇫틸탐뛔캴살뺭볃뷰죚퓋탐쟩뿶뗄풤닢럖컶,컒맺믵뇒헾닟퓚헢랽쏦뗄춸쏷뛈짐폐뫜듳뗄쳡짽뿕볤ꆣ떫춬쪱,퓚늻뛏쳡룟컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔뗄맽돌훐,튲뇘탫힢틢믵뇒헾닟춸쏷탔뗄쫊뛈컊쳢ꆣKahneman(2003)뗄퇐뺿죏캪,죋쏇뗄탅쾢볓릤쓜솦쫇폐쿞뗄,뛔탅쾢뗄움맀퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏틀삵폚죋쏇뗄훷맛에뛏ꆣ틲듋,훐퇫틸탐뻍쏦쇙ퟅ죧뫎쟥컺ꆢ폐훘뗣뗘쿲릫훚뒫듯뇘튪뗄탅쾢컊쳢ꆣ컒맺헽뒦폚튻룶룄룯폫뾪럅늽랥늻뛏볓뿬뗄쓪듺,뺭볃뮷뺳뗈쏦쇙뗄늻좷뚨탔뷏듳,퓚죧뫎쟥컺ꆢ폐훘뗣뗘쿲릫훚뒫듯뇘튪뗄탅쾢컊쳢짏,훐퇫틸탐쏦쇙ퟅ뫜듳뗄쳴햽ꆣ샽죧,뺭볃톧볒뚼쏷냗,훐퇫틸탐쯹ퟷ뗄뛔뺭볃랢햹뗈뗄풤닢쫇폐훖훖쿞훆쳵볾뗄,뺭볃퓋탐뗄늻뛏뇤뮯믡튪쟳훐퇫틸탐뗄움맀ퟷ쿠펦뗷헻,떫튪쿲릫훚돎쟥헢튻뗣좴쫇럇뎣삧쓑뗄ꆣ폈웤쫇퓚컒맺,훐퇫틸탐쫇튻룶좨췾믺릹,웤릫늼뗄쫽뻝릫훚믡죏캪뻟폐좨췾탔,늢퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏쫓ퟷ탐뚯뗄횸쓏ꆣ떱탂탅쾢돶쿖튪쟳룄뇤풭쿈뗄움맀쪱,ퟝ쪹훐퇫틸탐쫇췪좫헽좷뗄,릫훚튲뿉쓜죏캪쫇훐퇫틸탐릤ퟷ짏뗄쪧컳,뷸뛸펰쿬떽훐퇫틸탐믵뇒헾닟뗄뿉탅뛈,펰쿬떽릫훚뛔훐퇫틸탐믵뇒헾닟뗄샭뷢뫍횧돖ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗샮쓮햫,2003ꆶ:훐맺믵뇒헾닟퇐뺿ꆷ,훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꆣ킻욽ꆢ돌뻹샶,2005ꆶ:믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄믹뒡샭싛럖컶ꆷꆶ,뷰죚퇐뺿ꆷ뗚1웚ꆣBlack,F1,1974ꆰ,UniquenessofthePriceLevelinMonetaryGrowthModelswithRationalExpectationsꆱ,JournalofEconomicTheory,7,53ꆪ651Blinder,A1,Goodhart,C1,Hildebrand,P1,Lipton,D1andWyplosz,C1,2001,ꆰHowDoCentralBanksTalk?ꆱ,Geneva,InternationalCenterforMonetaryandBankingStudies1Boldrin,M1andWoodford,M.,1990ꆰ,EquilibriumModelsDisplayingEndogenousFluctuationsandChaos:ASurvey,ꆱJournalofMonetaryEconomics,25,89ꆪ,.,1983ꆰ,StaggeredContractsinaUtility2MaximizingFrameworkꆱ,JournalofMonetaryEconomics,12,383ꆪ,.,,1996ꆰ,ExpectationTrapsandDiscretionꆱ,NBERWorkingPaper5541,,2002ꆰ,TheValueofTransparencyinConductingMonetaryPolicy,ꆱPanelDiscussioninMonetaryPolicy,,StasavageandSterne,2002ꆰ,DoesItPayToBeTransparent?InternationalEvidencefromCentralBankForecastsꆱ,,,2000,ꆰTheExpectationsTrapHypothesisꆱ,,Gali,MarkGertler,1998ꆰ,MonetaryPolicyRulesandMacroeconomicStability:EvidenceandSomeTheoryꆱ,NBERWorkingPaper,,Alex,2000,ꆰAccountability,Credibility,TransparencyandStabilizationPolicyintheEurosystem.ꆱ,BerglasSchoolofEconomics,Tel2AvivUniversity,WorkingPaper2000ꆪ
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