죎뫎쫕듦뫍놣맜놾싛컄룷훖냦놾뗄떥캻뫍룶죋ꎬ캴뺭놾싛컄ퟷ헟쫚좨ꎬ늻뗃뛔놾싛컄뷸탐뢴훆ꆢ탞룄ꆢ랢탐ꆢ돶ퟢꆣ
탄샭풤웚폫훐맺막쫐뗄늨뚯 Psychological Expectation and Stock Market Fluctuation in China 샨탂욽 놱뺩듳톧뺭볃톧풺2001벶뷰죚톧쮶쪿 ꆾ쓚죝쳡튪ꆿ 듓70쓪듺뫳웚틔살ꎬ쫐뎡폐킧샭싛틔벰샭탔춶헟뗄볙짨쫜떽쇋풽살풽뛠뗄엺움ꆣ쳘뇰쫇퓚횤좯쫐뎡짏ꎬ뫜뛠뗄톧헟듓샭싛짏뫍쪵횤짏횤쪵막볛늢늻ퟱ톭쫐뎡폐킧샭싛ꎬ춶헟늢늻뻟폐췪좫뗄샭탔ꆣ쓇쎴죧뫎뛔헢킩쪵횤뗄뷡맻뷸탐뷢쫍ꎿ튻늿럖뺭볃톧볒듓탄샭톧믲탐캪톧뗄뷇뛈뛔ꆰ샭탔ꆱ죋뗄볙뚨뷸탐쇋훊틉뫍탞헽ꆣ헢킩쒣탍뚼듓죋뗄탄샭탐캪쳘헷돶랢ꎬ틔폐쿞샭탔뗄볙짨살뷢쫍쫐뎡짏쯹돶쿖뗄튻킩ꆰ틬뎣쿖쿳ꆱꆣ떫뺡맜틑뺭뺭맽쇋쯄ꆢ컥쪮쓪뗄랢햹ꎬ탐캪뺭볃톧믲탐캪뷰죚톧죔좻쎻폐붨솢웰췪헻뗄샭싛쳥쾵ꆣ웤풭틲쫇뛠랽쏦뗄ꎬ훷튪쫇평폚죋뗄탄샭탐캪뗄늻좷뚨틔벰쓑틔솿뮯뗄탔훊ꎬ쪹뗃룷훖뺭볃쫂볾뛔폚죋뗄탄샭펰쿬놾짭뻍뫜쓑냑컕ꎬ틲뛸튲뻍늻쓜뗃돶튻룶쏷좷뗄뿉탅삵뗄뷡싛ꆣ쇭튻룶풭틲뻍쫇룷훖샭싛뗄쳡돶훷튪뗄듓룶뇰뗄뗤탍탄샭탐캪쿖쿳돶랢ꎬ횱뷓뾼달웤쯹듸살뗄쫐뎡킧펦ꎬ뛸쎻폐튻룶퇏뷷뗄샭싛쳥쾵ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ뛔폚훐맺뗄뺭볃쿖쿳뛸퇔ꎬ풽살풽뛠뗄죋죏캪컷랽뗄뒫춳샭싛늻ퟣ틔뷢쫍훐맺뗄뺭볃랢햹ꎬ뛸펦룃듓탐캪톧뗄뷇뛈살뾼싇ꆣ쳘뇰뛔폚훐맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄늨뚯ꎬ평폚웤샺쪷뛌ꆢ늻맦랶뗄탔훊ꎬꆰ샭탔ꆱ죋뗄볙뚨췹췹뗃늻떽뫜뫃뗄퇩횤ꆣ 뾼싇떽헢킩틲쯘ꎬ놾컄듓튻킩랢짺퓚훐맺뗄웕뇩탄샭탐캪쿖쿳돶랢ꎬ뾼달죋쏇퓚헢킩탐캪훐뇭쿖돶살뗄탄샭쳘헷늢톰헒웤탄샭톧짏뗄퇩횤ꆣ춨맽헢훖랽쪽ꎬ놾컄ퟮ훷튪뗄릤ퟷ뫍ퟮ듳뗄릱쿗퓚폚뛔뒫춳뗄웚췻킧폃샭싛벰맀닢샭싛뷸탐탞헽ꎬ틽죫죋뗄탄샭탐캪듓뛸랢햹돶탄샭풤웚쒣탍ꆣ쒣탍뇭쏷ꎬ평폚죋뗄맽뛈ퟔ탅틔벰듓훚탐캪ꆢ좨췾탔탄샭펰쿬뗈탄샭틲쯘뗄틽죫ꎬ죋믡뛔쮽죋탅쾢뇭쿖돶맽뛈랴펦믲헟랴펦늻ퟣ뗄ꆰ틬뎣ꆱ탐캪쿖쿳ꆣ헢튻쒣탍룼뒴탂탔뗄쳡돶쇋탄샭뻠샫뗄룅쓮늢뛔횮뷸탐럖컶ꆣ듓헢튻쒣탍돶랢ꎬ놾컄뷸튻늽췆떼돶막쫐탄샭뚨볛쒣탍ꎬ듓뛸뷏뫃뗘뷢쫍횤좯쫐뎡짏뗄쒳킩ꆰ틬뎣쿖쿳ꆱꎬ늢뾴떽떼훂헢킩쿖쿳돶쿖뗄튻킩믹놾틲쯘ꆣ캪쇋퇩횤쒣탍쫇럱쓜릻뷏뫃뗄뷢쫍죋쏇뗄춶탐캪ꎬ놾컄뮹샻폃훐맺막쫐뎡짏뗄쪵횤쫽뻝뛔쒣탍뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ ꆾ맘볼듊ꆿ 탐캪뷰죚 탄샭풤웚 탄샭뻠샫 맀닢샭싛 웚췻킧폃 맽뛈랴펦 랴펦늻ퟣ
쒿 슼 튻ꆢ컊쳢뗄쳡돶......................................................................................2 뛾ꆢ뺭볃탐캪훐뗄뗤탍탄샭쿖쿳..........................................................5 1ꎮ펰쿬죋뗄뺭볃탐캪뗄틲쯘............................................................................5 ꎨ1ꎩ룶죋샻틦틲쯘.............................................................................................6 ꎨ2ꎩ짧믡뮷뺳틲쯘.............................................................................................6 ꎨ3ꎩ샺쪷컄뮯틲쯘.............................................................................................7 2ꎮ룶죋뺭볃탐캪뗄훷튪탄샭쳘헷...................................................................7 ꎨ1ꎩ듓훚탐캪.....................................................................................................8 ꎨ2ꎩ맽뛈ퟔ탅.....................................................................................................9 ꎨ3ꎩ좨췾탔탄샭펰쿬.......................................................................................10 ꎨ4ꎩ웴랢탔탄샭펰쿬.......................................................................................11 ꎨ5ꎩ뛔캴살뗄늻좷뚨탔...................................................................................12 ꎨ6ꎩퟜ뷡...........................................................................................................13 3ꎮ룶죋탄샭풤웚뗄쳖싛....................................................................................13 ꎨ1ꎩ볛횵몯쫽뗄쳖싛.......................................................................................13 ꎨ2ꎩ좨훘몯쫽...................................................................................................15 ꎨ3ꎩ탄샭뻠샫뗄펰쿬.......................................................................................18 4ꎮ탅쾢뒫능쒣탍..................................................................................................21 죽ꆢ쒣탍뗄췆떼.............................................................................................23 1ꎮ쿖폐샭싛믘맋..................................................................................................23 ꎨ1ꎩ웚췻킧폃몯쫽샭싛...................................................................................23 ꎨ2ꎩ맀닢샭싛...................................................................................................24 2ꎮ탄샭풤웚뗄탞헽쒣탍....................................................................................26 3ꎮ막쫐탄샭뚨볛쒣탍........................................................................................28 ꎨ1ꎩ떥룶춶헟뗄뚨볛쒣탍...........................................................................28 ꎨ2ꎩ짧믡릫훚뗄헻쳥뚨볛쒣탍.......................................................................31 쯄ꆢ쒣탍뗄펦폃....................................................................................33 1ꎮ뚨탔럖컶...........................................................................................................33 2ꎮ쒣쓢럖컶...........................................................................................................34 ꎨ1ꎩ럇탄샭틲쯘뗄럖컶...................................................................................35 ꎨ2ꎩ탄샭틲쯘뗄펰쿬.......................................................................................36 컥ꆢ훐맺막쫐뗄쪵횤럖컶....................................................................37 1ꆢ퇐뺿랽램...........................................................................................................38 2ꆢ쪵횤뷡맻뗄럖컶.............................................................................................39 쇹ꆢ뷡싛................................................................................................41
튻ꆢ컊쳢뗄쳡돶 뛔폚죋쏇뗄톡퓱뻶닟ꎬ뒫춳뗄샭싛췹췹쫇냑뻶닟죋뾴ퟷꆰ샭탔ꆱ뻶닟헟죫쫖뗄ꆣꆰ샭탔ꆱ춨뎣틢캶ퟅ벸룶럇뎣훘튪뗄볙뚨ꎺꎨ1ꎩ죋쏇뿉틔믱뗃웤뷸탐뺭볃뻶닟쯹탨튪뗄탅쾢ꎻꎨ2ꎩ죋뻟폐췪좫뗄뛔탅쾢뷸탐싟벭럖컶뗄쓜솦ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ퓚헦쪵뗄뺭볃쫀뷧훐ꎬ헢솽뗣볙뚨췹췹뚼뗃늻떽뫜뫃뗄싺ퟣꆣ쫗쿈ꎬ죋쏇췹췹쫇늻쓜믱뗃웤뷸탐뻶닟쯹탨튪뗄탅쾢ꎬ늢쟒ꎬ죋쏇튲늻쓜췪좫쟥돾쓄킩탅쾢쫇뿉탅뗄ꎬ쓄킩탅쾢쫇늻뿉탅뗄ꆣ웤듎ꎬ죋쏇룼쎻폐웕뇩뗄뛔탅쾢뷸탐샭탔럖컶뗄쓜솦ꆣ뿉쓜쿫쿳ꎬ벴뇣쫇뺭볃톧볒튲쎻폐냬램뛔쯹폐뗄뺭볃뻶닟컊쳢뷸탐췪좫뗄쒣탍럖컶ꎬ룼뫎뿶쫇튻냣뗄샏냙탕ꎿ헢뻍쪹뗃뫜뛠톧헟뾪쪼뛔샭탔죋뗄볙뚨쳡돶쇋훊틉ꆣ 쳘뇰쫇퓚늻좷뚨쫂볾뗄럖컶짏ꎬ뒫춳뺭볃톧샭싛튻냣닉폃웚췻킧폃몯쫽살뷸탐럖컶ꎬ늢퓚헢튻믹뒡짏랢햹돶쿖듺뗄뷰죚톧샭싛ꆣ웚췻킧폃몯쫽튻냣놻죏캪쫇럻뫏죋쏇샭탔탐캪뗄맦랶탔쒣탍ꎬ늢볙짨쎿튻룶ꆰ샭탔ꆱ뗄뺭볃죋뚼믡틀헕헢튻샭싛쯹쏨쫶뗄쓇퇹뷸탐뺭볃뻶닟ꆣ헢튻샭싛뗄쳡돶좷쪵퓚듳뛠쫽쟩뿶쿂뷢쫍쇋죋쏇퓚늻좷뚨쟩뿶뗄뺭볃탐캪ꎬ늢평듋랢햹돶쫐뎡폐킧샭싛듓뛸돉캪뒫춳뷰죚샭싛뗄믹쪯ꆣ뒫춳뷰죚샭싛훷튪냼삨Markowitz뗄뻹횵-랽닮쒣탍뫍춶ퟩ뫏샭싛ꎨ1952쓪ꎩꎬSharpeꆢLintner틔벰Mossin뗄놾닺뚨볛쒣탍ꎨ1964쓪ꎩꎬFama뗄폐킧쫐뎡샭싛ꎨ1970쓪ꎩ뫍Black-Scholes-Merton뗄웚좨뚨볛샭싛ꎨ1973쓪ꎩꆣ 떫쫇퓚컒쏇뗄쿖쪵짺믮훐ꎬ평폚샭탔죋볙짨췹췹늻쓜뗃떽싺ퟣꎬ튲뻍믡뎣뎣랢짺탭뛠캥랴웚췻킧폃샭싛뗄쿖쿳ꆣ듓뛸풽살풽뛠뗄톧헟뾪쪼뮳틉ꎬ뒫춳뗄웚췻킧폃샭싛쫇럱쫇튻룶쏨쫶죋쏇늻좷뚨쟩뿶쿂뺭볃탐캪뗄돤럖뗄쒣탍ꆣ 쫂쪵짏ꎬ틑뺭폐뫜뛠뺭볃톧볒뛔뒫춳뗄샭싛쳡돶쇋늻춬뗄틢볻ꆣ듓70쓪듺뫳웚틔살ꎬ쫐뎡폐킧샭싛틔벰샭탔춶헟뗄볙짨쫜떽쇋풽살풽뛠뗄엺움ꎬ뫜뛠뗄톧헟듓샭싛짏뫍쪵횤짏횤쪵막볛늢늻ퟱ톭쫐뎡폐킧샭싛ꎬ쳡돶쫐뎡짏듦퓚룷훖ꆰ틬뎣쿖쿳ꆱ,죧낢삳싛ꆢ죕샺킧펦ꆢ막좨틧볛횮쏕ꆢ웚좨캢킦ꆢ럢뇕쪽믹뷰횮쏕ꆢ킡엌막킧펦ꎬ뗈뗈ꆣBanzꎨ1981ꎩ쫗쿈쳡돶쇋ꆰ킡릫쮾킧펦ꆱ쿖쿳뗄듦퓚ꎬ벴막욱쫕틦싊폫릫쮾맦쒣돉랴뇈ꎬ듓뛸뒵쿬쇋뛔쫐뎡폐킧탔볙짨탻햽뗄뫅뷇ꎻBhandari(1998)쳡돶릫쮾룜룋뇈폫릫쮾막욱쫕틦싊횮볤듦퓚ퟅ쿠맘맘쾵ꎻStattmanꎨ1980ꎩ뫍RosenbergꆢReid폫Lanstainꎨ1985ꎩ랢쿖릫쮾헊쏦볛횵폫웤쫐뎡볛횵뗄뇈횵듳훂 2
폫릫쮾막욱쫕틦싊돉헽뇈ꆣ헢훖룹뻝쫐뎡뗄쿖폐탅쾢뻍쓜믱뗃뎬뛮쫕틦뗄쪵횤퇐뺿뷡맻릹돉쇋뛔쫐뎡폐킧탔볙짨뗄ퟮ횱뷓쳴햽ꆣ 뛔폚춶헟뗄샭탔탐캪볙짨릹돉ퟮ듳쳴햽뗄쫇ꎬ튻킩톧헟뾪쪼퇐뺿쫐뎡뗄뿉풤닢탔컊쳢ꎬ늢쳡돶쇋ꆰ쫐뎡맽뛈랴펦ꆱ뗄샭싛볙짨ꎬ튲벴춶헟뛔폚막쫐짏뗄탅쾢믡뇭쿖뗃맽폚샖맛믲맽폚놯맛틔훁폚떼훂막볛랢짺뛔웤쓚퓚볛횵퓝쪱뗄욫샫ꆣFamaꎨ1965ꎩ뗄쪵횤컄헂훐틑뺭랢쿖떥룶막욱뗄쫕틦싊퓚ퟜ쳥짏돊쿖쪱탲뢺쿠맘탔ꆣDeBondt틔벰Thalerꎨ1985ꆢ1987ꎩ쫗듎뛔쫐뎡맽뛈랴펦ퟶ돶쇋쏅뗄싛쫶뫍쪵횤뗄볬퇩ꎬ듓뛸랢쿖퓚막쫐훐듦퓚ퟅ뎤웚ꎨ3-5쓪ꎩ뗄랴쿲탞헽뗄쿖쿳ꆣ횮뫳ꎬDelong, Shleifer, Summers뫍Waldmann(1989), Lehmann(1988), Poterba뫍Summers(1988) 틔벰Shefrin 뫍Statman(1985)뚼뛔쫐뎡맽뛈랴펦ퟷ돶쇋늻춬돌뛈뗄쪵횤짏뫍샭싛짏뗄럖컶뫍뷢쫍ꆣJegadeesh(1990)뫍Lehmann(1990)샻폃쓦쿲춶램뗄춶ퟩ뫏ꎬ퇩횤쇋쏀맺막쫐짏듦퓚쫐뎡맽뛈ꆣ떱좻ꎬ튲폐뛔듋돖폐늻춬틢볻뗄ꎬLo뫍Mackinlayꎨ1990ꎩ춨맽샭싛짏뫍쪵횤뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ쓦쿲닙ퟷ뗄랽램웤믱샻튲뿉틔살ퟔ폚막욱횮볤뗄헽뗄쿠맘탔ꎬ뛸늻튻뚨쫇룶막ퟔ짭뗄뢺쪱탲쿠맘탔튲벴맽뛈랴펦뛸틽웰뗄ꆣJegadeesh뫍Titmanꎨ1993ꎩ퓲닉폃쇋폫쓦쿲춶닟싔쿠뛔펦뗄쟷쫆춶닟싔ꎬ듓쪵횤짏뇭쏷잰튻쓪뗄룟믘놨뗄막욱퓚뫳쏦뗄냫쓪쪱볤쓚뮹믡놣돖ퟅ웤룟믘놨뗄폅쫆ꆣ튲벴쫐뎡돽쇋뎤웚뗄맽뛈랴펦췢뮹듦퓚ퟅ뛌웚뗄랴펦늻ퟣꆣFama뫍Frenchꎨ1996ꎩ뗄퇐뺿튲횤쪵쇋헢튻뗣ꆣ 뛔폚짏쏦헢킩쪵횤뗄뷡맻펦룃죧뫎뷸탐뷢쫍ꎿ튻늿럖뺭볃톧볒뎢쫔듓탄샭톧믲탐캪톧뗄뷇뛈뛔ꆰ샭탔ꆱ죋뗄볙뚨뷸탐훊틉뫍탞헽ꆣ틔1951쓪Burrel뷌쫚랢뇭ꆶ춶햽싔뗄쪵퇩랽램뗄뿉쓜탔퇐뺿ꆷ튻컄캪뇪횾ꎬ룃컄쫗듎쳡돶펦룃냑탐캪탄샭톧뷡뫏퓚뺭볃톧훐살뷢쫍뷰죚쿖쿳ꆣ횮뫳Roy(1952)쳡돶쇋ꆰ낲좫뗚튻ꆱ뗄춶쒣탍ꎬ냑죋뛔훘듳쯰쪧뗄믘뇜탄샭뷸탐쇋럖컶ꆣ잰죋뗄쮼쿫놻Kahneman뫍Tverskyꎨ1979ꎩ뷸튻늽뗄랢햹ꎬ쳡돶쇋맀닢샭싛ꎨProspect Theoryꎩꆣ퓚헢튻샭싛훐ꎬ죋쏇뛔폚쫕틦ꆢ쯰쪧뗄탄샭뾴램틔벰죋쏇뛔폚쫂볾랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔뗄탄샭랴펦놻럅죫떽뺭볃뗄쒣탍훐볓틔쳖싛ꎬ튻킩뗤탍뗄탄샭쿖쿳놻럅죫쇋뺭볃뻶닟탐캪뗄럖컶훐ꆣ퓚1982쓪ꎬKahneman뫍Tversky뷸튻늽냑죋뗄틅몶탄샭럅죫떽맀닢샭싛훐ꎬLoomes뫍Sugdenꎨ1982ꎩꆢBell(1982)틔벰Shefrin뫍Statman(1985)튲뛔죋뗄틅몶탄샭햹뾪쳖쫶ꎬ랢햹돉캪틅몶샭싛ꎨRegret Thoeryꎩꆣ탄샭톧볒Lopes(1987)춨맽뛔막쫐탄샭럖컶랢쿖ꎬ죋쏇뛔럧쿕뗄탄샭랴펦폫뿖뻥뫍쾣췻헢솽훖죋뗄쟩룐쏜쟐쿠맘ꎬ폚쫇쯻냑Roy뗄낲좫뗚튻샭싛볓틔탞헽랢햹돉캪SP/A샭싛ꆣ떽쇋뻅쪮쓪듺ꎬKahneman뫍Tversky뛔웤맀닢샭싛뷸탐쇋뷸튻늽뗄췪짆늢샻폃헢튻쒣탍뛔막쫐짏뗄ꆰ틬뎣쿖쿳ꆱ뷸탐뷢쫍뫍쪵횤럖컶ꆣShefrin뫍Thalerꎨ1988ꎩ뫍Shefrin뫍Statmanꎨ1994ꎩ냑죋뗄탄샭움볛럖뷢캪좷뚨늿럖틔벰늻좷뚨늿럖ꎬ뛔맀닢샭싛뷸탐 3
쇋탞헽ꎬBenartzi뫍Thaler(1995)ꆢSiegel뫍Thaler(1997)퓲냑죋쏇뗄ꆰ뛌쫓탔럧쿕믘뇜ꆱ뗈탄샭탐캪죚죫떽맀닢샭싛훐ꆣ듋췢ꎬShillerꎨ1989ꎩꆢCompbell뫍Shillerꎨ1988ꆢ1989ꎩꆢSummers(1991)ꆢBarberiesꆢShleifer뫍Vishny(1997)뗈뚼뎢쫔춨맽탄샭틲쯘뛔막쫐짏뗄맽뛈랴펦믲랴펦늻ퟣ쿖쿳쳡돶뫏샭뗄뷢쫍ꆣퟔ듋ꎬ퓚헢킩믹뒡탔릤ퟷ횮짏ꎬ탐캪뺭볃톧뫍탐캪뷰죚톧훰붥랢햹웰살ꎬ늢쫜떽뺭볃톧뷧뗄훘쫓ꆣ2001쓪쯘폐킡억놴뛻뺭볃톧붱횮돆뗄쏀맺Clark붱쫚폨쇋탐캪뷰죚톧볒Rabin뷌쫚,2002쓪억놴뛻뺭볃톧붱폖쫚폨쇋탐캪뷰죚톧볒Kahnemanꆣ 좻뛸뿍맛뗘쮵ꎬ탐캪뷰죚톧샭싛뺡맜돊쿖돶냙볒헹쏹ꆢ룷럅틬닊뗄솼뫃쟷쫆ꎬ떫죔좻쎻폐튻룶췪짆뗄샭싛쳥쾵ꆣ듳뛠쫽톧헟횻쫇냑웤훐쒳튻룶믲쒳벸룶뇈뷏쏷쿔뗄탄샭쳘헷럅죫떽죋뗄뺭볃뻶닟훐뷸탐럖컶ꎬ뛸짐쎻폐튻룶쾵춳뗄샭싛뿲볜ꆣ컒쏇틑뺭횪뗀ꎬ듓뒫춳뗄웚췻킧폃몯쫽돶랢ꎬ뿉틔뗃떽튻쾵쇐뗄뷰죚톧뗄뚨볛쒣탍ꆣ쓇쎴쫇럱쓜릻냑튻킩뷏캪쏷쿔뗄탄샭쳘헷랴펳떽죋뛔맀닢쫂볾뗄탄샭풤웚훐ꎬ듓뛸뛔뒫춳뗄웚췻킧폃샭싛뷸탐탞헽ꎿ쫇럱뿉틔듓틽뷸쇋죋뗄탄샭틲쯘뗄탄샭풤웚킧폃몯쫽돶랢ꎬ춬퇹랢햹돶쿠펦뗄뚨볛쒣탍ꎬ듓뛸뛔뷰죚쫐뎡뗄랴펦탐캪뷸탐뷢쫍ꎿ헢쿔좻붫쫇쿖듺뷰죚톧잰퇘뗄튻룶훘튪뗄쳴햽ꆣ 쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ컒맺횤좯쫐뎡춬돉쫬뗄횤좯쫐뎡뇈뷏ꎬ뮹쫇튻룶탂탋뗄횤좯쫐뎡ꎭꎭ샺쪷뛌ꆢ늻맦랶ꆣ퓚훐맺뗄쫐뎡짏ꎬꆰ샭탔ꆱ죋뗄볙뚨췹췹뗃늻떽뫜뫃뗄퇩횤ꆣ뒫춳뗄웚췻킧폃샭싛퓚훐맺튲뻍룼쓑틔폫쪵볊쟩뿶쿠럻쇋ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뫜쓑쿫쿳훐맺뗄춶헟믡틀헕웚췻킧폃샭싛쯹쏨쫶뗄쓇퇹뷸탐춶뻶닟ꆣ죧맻떽훐맺뗄횤좯붻틗듳쳼샯좥뾴튻뾴ꎬ뻍늻쓑랢쿖죋쏇쯹쪹폃뗄쫇폫룅싊샭싛볒쏇췪좫늻춬뗄듊믣ꎬ쯻쏇폃뗃ퟮ뛠뗄쫇ꆰ퓋웸ꆱ믲ꆰ쇩퇩ꆱ헢킩듊뛸뫜짙쪹폃ꆰ룅싊ꆱ믲ꆰ뿉쓜탔ꆱꆣ퓚톧쫵뗄럖컶짏ꎬ튲춬퇹폐뫜뛠쪵횤퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎺ훐맺횤좯쫐뎡쫇컞킧싊뗄ꆣ늻맦랶뗄쫐뎡뇘좻뫍컞킧싊솪쾵퓚튻웰ꆣ헢쪹뗃컒쏇퓚뾼싇훐맺뷰죚쫐뎡뗄랢햹쪱ꎬ늻뗃늻퓚뒫춳뗄뺭볃톧샭싛믹뒡짏뾼싇튻킩웤쯻탐캪랽쏦뗄틲쯘ꆣ 틲뛸퓚놾컄훐ꎬ컒쏇붫듓랢짺퓚훐맺뗄튻킩뗤탍ꆰ럇샭탔ꆱ뗄탐캪쿖쿳돶랢ꎬ뾼달죋쏇퓚헢킩탐캪훐뇭쿖돶살뗄탄샭쳘헷늢톰헒웤탄샭톧짏뗄퇩횤ꆣ춨맽헢훖랽쪽ꎬ놾컄뗄ퟮ듳릱쿗뻍쫇뛔뒫춳뗄웚췻킧폃샭싛뫍맀닢샭싛뷸탐쇋탞헽ꎬ틽죫죋뗄탄샭탐캪듓뛸랢햹돶컒쏇뗄탄샭풤웚쒣탍ꎬ늢듓헢튻쒣탍돶랢췆떼돶쿠펦뗄뚨볛랽돌ꎬ폃틔뷢쫍횤좯쫐뎡짏뗄쒳킩ꆰ틬뎣쿖쿳ꆱꆣ캪쇋퇩횤쒣탍쫇럱쓜릻뷏뫃뗄뷢쫍죋쏇뗄춶탐캪ꎬ컒쏇붫샻폃훐맺막쫐짏뗄쪵횤럖컶뛔쒣탍뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ 4
뛾ꆢ뺭볃탐캪훐뗄뗤탍탄샭쿖쿳 1ꎮ펰쿬죋뗄뺭볃탐캪뗄틲쯘 뒫춳뗄뺭볃톧샭싛틔ꆰ킧폃ꆱ살쏨쫶죋쏇뗄뺭볃뻶닟컊쳢ꎬ늢듓ꆰ킧폃ꆱ훐돩쿳돶튻쾵쇐뗄풼쫸쳵볾ꎬ듓뛸랢햹돶뒫춳뺭볃톧샭싛뗄훘튪믹쪯ꆪꆪ킧폃몯쫽ꆣ뛸뺭볃톧뗄쇭튻훘듳볙짨뇣쫇ꆰ샭탔ꆱ죋뗄볙짨ꎬ퓚헢튻볙짨횮쿂ꎬ뺭볃죋뿉틔믱뗃폐맘닺욷뫍볛룱뗄탅쾢ꎬ늢뷸탐폐맘탅쾢뗄헻샭뫍볆쯣ꎬ듓뛸퓚뇟볊킧폃틔벰뇟볊돉놾뗄뇈뷏럖컶짏췆떼돶ꆰ샭탔ꆱ죋뗄뺭볃탐캪ꆪꆪ킧폃ퟮ듳뮯탐캪ꆣ헢킩샭싛캪뷢쫍컒쏇뗄죕뎣뺭볃믮뚯ퟶ돶쇋뻞듳뗄릱쿗ꆣ 좻뛸ꎬ쯦ퟅ짧믡뗄늻뛏랢햹ꎬ뒫춳뗄뺭볃톧샭싛튲뾪쪼쏦쇙풽살풽뛠뗄컞램뫜뫃뷢쫍뗄뺭볃탐캪ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ헢웤훐튻룶뫜훘튪뗄풭틲쫇ꎬ뒫춳뺭볃톧퓚돩쿳뗴튻킩풭쿈뾴쯆늻훘튪뗄틲쯘뛸벯훐폚돉놾쫕틦뗄럖컶쪱ꎬ튲뻍돩쿳뗴쇋헢킩틲쯘뛔룶쳥뺭볃탐캪뗄펰쿬ꆣ뛸퓚쒳킩쳘뚨뗄쪱듺놳뺰쿂ꎬ헢킩틲쯘좴췹췹쫇죋쏇뺭볃탐캪훐ퟮ캪훘튪뗄펰쿬틲쯘ꆣ뻙샽살쮵ꎬ폐쓄튻룶컷랽뗄뺭볃샭싛쓜릻뫜뫃뗄뷢쫍쟥돾훐맺듳풾뷸쓪듺뗄뺭볃탐캪쓘ꎿ틲뛸ꎬ컒쏇퓚뷸탐뺭볃퇐뺿뗄쪱뫲ꎬ튲뻍폐뇘튪쳸돶뺭볃톧뗄쿖폐뿲볜ꎬ좥뾴튻뾴뇰뗄짧믡뿆톧뗄랢햹틔벰쯼쏇뛔죋샠탐캪틔벰짧믡탐캪폐ퟅ퓵퇹뗄죏쪶ꆣ뇏뺹ꎬ뺭볃톧쫇튻쏅퇐뺿죋뗄탐캪뗄톧뿆ꎬ횻늻맽퇐뺿뗄쏦햭튻뗣ꎬ횻퇐뺿죋뗄뺭볃탐캪뛸틑ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ쫔컊튻룶죋뗄뺭볃탐캪퓵쓜늻쫜떽쯻뗄웤쯻탐캪뗄펰쿬쓘ꎿ튻룶죋퓚릺싲랿ퟓ뗄쪱뫲ꎬ뾼싇뗄튲탭늻뷶뷶쫇쯻룶죋뛔탂뻓뗄킧폃ꎬ쯻뮹믡뾼싇쯻뗄뛹ퟓ틔벰쯻뗄웞ퟓ뛔헢뒱탂랿ퟓ뗄킧폃ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ죧맻쯻볒샯뗄쮫쟗헽퓚뮼늡ꎬ쫇럱튲믡뛔쯻뗄뺭볃볆뮮닺짺펰쿬쓘ꎿ쇭췢ꎬ죧맻쯻쫇맺볒뗄릫컱풱ꎬ쯻믡늻믡뾼싇랿ퟓ죧맻첫뫀뮪믡뛔쯻뗄탎쿳닺짺펰쿬ꎿ뿉틔뾴떽뗄쫇ꎬ튻룶죋퓚ퟷ뫜뛠뺭볃뻶닟뗄쪱뫲ꎬ쫂쪵짏쫇믡쫜떽룷훖룷퇹뗄틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛸풶풶늻뷶뷶쫇컒쏇뺭볃쒣탍훐쯹뾼싇뗄쓇킩놻ꆰ돩쿳ꆱ돶살뗄틲쯘ꆣ떱좻ꎬꆰ돩쿳ꆱ쫇컒쏇뷸탐뿆톧퇐뺿뗄튻룶ퟮ캪믹놾뗄랽램ꎬ횻쫇떱컒쏇퓚ꆰ뒫춳ꆱ샯헒늻떽뫏샭뗄뷢쫍쪱ꎬ컒쏇늻럁뾴튻쿂뇰뗄틲쯘쫇럱퓚웤훐웰ퟅ맘볼뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ 펰쿬튻룶죋뗄뺭볃뻶닟뗄틲쯘쫇뛠훖뛠퇹뗄ꆣ컒쏇퓵쎴쓜릻횪뗀쓄킩닅쫇ퟮ훘튪뗄ꎬ뛸쓄킩닅쫇듎튪뗄쓘ꎿ헢뿖엂뻍쫇튻룶죊헟볻죊ꆢ훇헟볻훇뗄컊쳢쇋ꆣ떫ퟜ뗄살쮵ꎬ펰쿬튻룶죋뗄뺭볃뻶닟ퟮ횱뷓뗄틲쯘냼삨뿍맛뗄틲쯘틔벰탄샭랽쏦뗄틲쯘ꆣ떫죧맻컒쏇돐죏훷맛쫇뛔뿍맛뗄랴펳ꎬ쓇쎴컒쏇뻍튪ힷ쯝펰쿬룶죋탄샭랴펦뗄쒳킩뿍맛틲쯘ꆣ튮슳듳톧뗄Shiller뷌쫚퓚웤ꆶ럇샭탔뗄랱죙ꆷ훐냑펰쿬죋뗄탄샭랴펦뗄룷훖틲쯘럖돉쇋죽듳샠ꎬ럖뇰쫇ꎺ뷡릹탔틲쯘ꆢ컄뮯탔틲쯘뫍탄샭탔틲쯘ꆣ퓚놾컄훐ꎬ컒쏇뛔쯹폐뗄틲쯘뷸탐튻룶볲떥뗄헻샭ꎬ죏캪펰쿬룶죋뺭볃탐뗄냼삨죽룶랽쏦뗄틲쯘ꎬ벴룶죋샻틦틲쯘ꆢ짧믡뮷뺳틲쯘틔벰샺쪷틲쯘ꆣ 5
ꎨ1ꎩ룶죋샻틦틲쯘 헢샯쯹쳖싛뗄뻍쫇뒫춳뺭볃톧샭싛쯹뾼싇뗄횱뷓뛔룶죋뗄돉놾뫍쫕틦랽쏦닺짺펰쿬뗄쓇킩틲쯘ꎬ죧닺욷뗄훊솿ꆢ쫽솿ꆢ볛룱뗈뗈ꆣ떱좻ꎬ룶죋퓚뾼싇웤ퟔ짭뗄샻틦믲쯹뗃쪱ꎬ늻뷶뷶튪뾼싇웤떱잰뗄샻틦틲쯘ꎬ뮹튪뾼싇웤캴살뗄샻틦틲쯘ꆣ듓뛸ꎬ샻싊ꆢ럧쿕뗈튲뻍뚼돉캪웤뷸탐뺭볃뻶닟뗄틀뻝횮튻ꆣ춬퇹ꎬ룶죋퓚뷸탐돉놾랽쏦뗄뾼싇쪱ꎬ늻뷶뷶튪뾼싇웤캪닉좡쒳튻뺭볃탐캪뛸뇘탫ퟶ돶뗄횧뢶ꎬ춬쪱뮹튪뾼싇웤풼쫸ꎬ듓뛸?뢳ꆢ쫕죫뗈튲뻍쿠펦뗄놻쓉죫떽컒쏇뗄뺭볃톧쒣탍훐ꆣ춬퇹ꎬ퓚뾼달웤ퟔ짭뗄돉놾쫕틦뗄뇈뷏쪱ꎬ뻶닟헟뮹튪뾼싇웤믺믡돉놾ꎬ튲벴룶쳥캪닉좡쒳튻뺭볃탐캪뛸뛔웤쯻뺭볃탐캪뗄샻틦럅웺ꆣ듋췢ꎬ뮹폐뺺헹뗈뗈ꆣ헢킩뚼퓸퓚뒫춳뗄뺭볃톧샭싛훐폐맽뫜뫃뗄싛쫶ꆣ퓚헢샯튲뻍늻퓙볓틔햹뾪쳖싛ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ짧믡뮷뺳틲쯘 룶죋뗄뺭볃탐캪ퟜ믡듸폐쪱듺뗄샓펡ꆣ쒳튻룶룶쳥뗄뺭볃탐캪돽쇋쫜웤ퟔ짭킧폃ퟮ듳뮯쒿뇪뗄횸틽틔췢ꎬퟜ쓑쏢뗄믡쫜떽짧믡놳뺰뗄펰쿬ꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ튻룶죋뗄뺭볃뻶닟췹췹믡뾼싇떽짧믡뛔쯻뗄움볛ꆣ캪쪲쎴퓚탂훐맺룕돉솢뗄쓇룶쓪듺ꎬ듳뛠쫽죋뚼믡쿛쒽퓚ꆰ볒춥돶짭ꆱ헢튻삸샯쳮짏ꆰ욶얩ꆱ뛸틔ꆰ뢻얩ꆱ믲ꆰ닆훷ꆱ캪돜ꎬ좻뛸퓚뷱쳬ꎬ듳뛠쫽죋뚼쾲뮶뇰죋뷐쯻ퟷꆰ샏냥ꆱꎿ헢뻍쫇짧믡놳뺰뛔폚룶죋탐캪뗄훘듳펰쿬ꆣ퓚헢룶펰쿬쿂ꎬ컒쏇튲뻍늻쓑쏷냗컒쏇뗄샏튻놲캪쪲쎴늻쾲뮶뺭짌ꎬ튲뻍쓜샭뷢캪쪲쎴훐맺뗄막쫐퓚룕뾪쪼뗄쪱뫲뺹좻튪뾿헾훎뚯풱맄샸떳풱뷸탐춶ꆣ헢뻸늻뷶뷶쫇틲캪듳볒뛔막쫐늻쇋뷢뛸퓬돉뗄ꆣ헢샯뮹폐뎤웚틔살듲믷ꆰ춶믺떹냒ꆱ뗄짧믡뮷뺳뛔샏냙탕뗄훷떼탔탄샭펰쿬ꆣ늻뷶뷶퓚훐맺쫇죧듋ꎬ퓚죎뫎튻룶짧믡뮷뺳쿂ꎬ컒쏇뚼늻뿉쓜럱죏짧믡뗄틢쪶탎첬틔벰짧믡뗄탐캪ힼ퓲뛔폚룶쳥뺭볃탐캪뗄펰쿬ꆣ 듓헢룶틢틥짏쮵ꎬ짧믡뮷뺳뗄틲쯘튲뻍냼삨쇋짧믡뗄헾닟ꆢ짧믡맛쓮ꆢ램싉ꆢ짧믡뷡릹ꆢ틢쪶탎첬뗈뗈ꎬ헢킩튲헽쫇짧믡톧쯹맘힢뗄뛸췹췹쓑틔퓚뺭볃톧뗄쒣탍훐뗃떽뫜뫃랴펳뗄튻킩쓚죝ꆣ듋췢ꎬ펰쿬룶죋뺭볃뻶닟뗄짧믡뮷뺳틲쯘뮹냼삨웤짧믡솪쾵틔벰쿠펦뗄짧믡퓰죎ꎬ튲벴볒춥ꆢ쟗죋틔벰엳폑뗈룷룶랽쏦뗄펰쿬ꆣ뻙룶샽ퟓ살쮵쏷ꎬ캪쪲쎴훐맺뗄뒢탮싊뻓룟늻쿂뛸쟒뛔샻싊뗄뇤뮯벸뫵뫁늻쏴룐ꎿ튻룶뫜훘튪뗄풭틲뻍쫇훐맺죋뗄볒춥얦듸ꆣ믱뗃훷튪쫕죫살풴뗄룶쳥튪뾼싇튻룶볒춥샯몢ퟓ캴살뗄뷌폽횧돶ꆢ볒춥릺싲랿ퟓ뗄횧돶틔벰쮫쟗캴살뗄퇸샏횧돶ꆢ좫볒듳듳킡킡뗄튽쇆뗈ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ뛔폚훐맺죋뛸퇔ꎬ뒢탮쫇튻훖ꆰ럀랶폚캴살ꆱ뗄쏀뗂ꆣ죧맻뾼싇떽헢퇹튻룶틲쯘ꎬ뒢탮탐캪튪쓜내컷랽뺭볃톧쒣탍쓇퇹뷸탐ꎬ웱늻웦맖ꎿ 6
ꎨ3ꎩ샺쪷컄뮯틲쯘 죋뗄뺭볃뻶닟틀뻝뗄쫇웤킧폃ퟮ듳뮯뗄쒿뇪ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ킧폃쮵떽뗗쫇튻룶볛횵좡쿲뗄컊쳢ꆣ컷랽뺭볃톧쯹돧짐뗄쫇틔닆닺믲믵뇒뫢솿킧폃ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ죋뗄킧폃ퟮ듳뮯탐캪뚼쫇ힷ뷰훰샻뗄탐캪ꆣ떫퓚훐맺ꎬꆰ럠췁떱쓪췲뮧뫲ꆱ뗄쟥룟닅ퟓ늢늻좱랦ꆣ쮵냗쇋ꎬ웤쪵쫇볛횵맛쓮늻튻퇹ꆣ뛸룶죋뗄볛횵맛쓮튲뻍뇘좻뗄쫜떽웤샺쪷컄뮯틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ죋뗄뺭볃탐캪튲믡쫜떽웤샺쪷컄뮯틲쯘뗄훘듳펰쿬ꆣ 좻뛸ꎬ샺쪷컄뮯뗄틲쯘쫇뫜맣늩뗄ꆣ튻랽쏦쫇룶죋쮼캬랽쪽뗄샺쪷탔ꆣ훐맺죋쫜죥볒쮼쿫펰쿬뎤듯벸잧쓪ꎬ웤룹짮뗙만뗄듳훚쮼쿫쫇훐펹ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ훐맺죋퓚ퟜ쳥짏뛸퇔쫇쮳듓ꆢ늻쎰뷸ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ쫇볛횵맛쓮뗄샺쪷탔ꆣ훐맺벸잧쯹뗄럢붨뗛훆ꎬ뗈벶맛쓮틔벰좨췾퓚훐맺죋뗄쓔ퟓ샯폐ퟅ럇뎣훘튪뗄펰쿬솦ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ훐맺죋쾲뮶뾴헾뢮뫍좨췾뗄틢쮼냬쫂ꆣ헢튲쫇캪쪲쎴훐맺뗄막쫐폐ퟅ잿쇒뗄ꆰ헾닟쫐ꆱ뗄쳘헷ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ컒쏇퓚뾼싇룶죋뺭볃탐캪쪱뮹펦뾼싇웤쯹쫜뗄뷌폽ꆢ쮼캬맛쓮ꆢ샺쪷놳뺰틔벰웤쯼컄뮯짏뗄틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ 헢퇹뾴살ꎬ튪뾼달튻룶죋뗄뺭볃탐캪놳뫳뗄뚯틲ꎬ쯹튪뾼싇뗄틲쯘웤쪵쫇뫪퓓럗랱뗄ꎨ폐맘짧믡뮷뺳틔벰샺쪷컄뮯뗄틲쯘뛔횤좯쫐뎡뗄펰쿬럖컶뿉닎볻Shillerꆶ럇샭탔뗄랱죙ꆷꎩꆣ떫헢킩틲쯘폖늻뿉쓜뚼럅뷸컒쏇뗄퇐뺿랶캧틔쓚ꎬ듓뛸ꆰ돩쿳ꆱ틔벰ꆰ맩쓉ꆱ튲뻍돉캪뷸탐뿆톧퇐뺿뗄훘튪랽램ꆣ 퓚놾컄ꎬ컒쏇늢늻좥퇐뺿짏쏦뗄헢킩늻춬뗄틲쯘죧뫎펰쿬튻룶죋뗄탐캪랽쪽뫍탄샭랽쪽ꎨ헢펦룃쫇탐캪톧볒믲탄샭톧볒뗄릤ퟷ쓚죝쇋ꎩꎬ컒쏇횻쫇듓헢킩틲쯘쯹떼훂뗄죋뗄튻킩뗤탍뗄탐캪쳘헷믲탄샭쳘헷돶랢ꎬ좥뾼싇죋뗄뺭볃뻶닟컊쳢ꆣ뛸헢킩탐캪쳘헷죧뫎탎돉ꎬ퓲틑늻쫇뺭볃톧쯹뾼싇뗄쓚죝ꆣ 2ꎮ룶죋뺭볃탐캪뗄훷튪탄샭쳘헷 듓짏쏦뗄쳖싛컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ평폚룷훖럇뺭볃틲쯘뗄듦퓚ꎬ죋뗄뫜뛠뺭볃탐캪늢늻쫇튻훖ꆰ샭탔ꆱ뗄탐캪ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ죋뗄뫜뛠탐캪뗄ퟷ돶쫇튪쫜떽웤탄샭랽쏦틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꎬ뇭쿖돶튻킩쏷쿔뗄탄샭쳘헷ꆣ 7
퓚2002쓪11퓂럝뗄쪱뫲ꎬ훐맺뗄맣뚫뗘쟸랢쿖쇋뗚튻샽ꆰ럇뗤탍럎퇗ꆱꎨSARSꎩ뗄늡샽ꆣ퓚쓇틔뫳ꎬSARS쿱튻뎡컁틟튻퇹ꎬ쫗쿈퓚맣뚫뗘쟸듳맦쒣뗄놬랢듓뛸틽웰뿖믅ꎬ횮뫳쫇쿣룛ꆢ탂볓웂ꎬ퓙췹뫳뇣쫇놱뺩틔벰좫맺룷룶쪡쟸ꆣ헢튻쫂볾룸헻룶퇇훞쳘뇰쫇훐맺뗘쟸듸살쇋뻞듳뗄펰쿬ꎺ뺭볃뗄ꆢ짧믡뗄ꆢ탄샭뗄ꆣ죧뷱ꎬ퓚헢튻욪싛컄뷸탐킴뗄쪱뫲ꎬ죋쏇죔좻뒦폚쏦뛔쯀췶뗄뾹헹횮훐ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ듓톧쫵뗄뷇뛈살뾴ꎬ헢튻듎쫂볾튲캪컒쏇쳡릩쇋튻룶퇐뺿죋뗄탄샭랴펦뛔폚웤뺭볃탐캪펰쿬뗄튻룶솼뫃믺믡ꆣ퓚웤훐ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖튻킩뫜뗤탍뗄탄샭쿖쿳ꆣ ꎨ1ꎩ듓훚탐캪(herd behavior) 2003쓪2퓂럝ꎬ뺡맜퓚맣뚫쎻폐릫뾪뗄놨뗀ꎬ떫죋쏇춨맽쮽죋뗄탅쾢뒫뗝슽슽탸탸믱횪맣뚫틑뺭돶쿖쇋뫃벸쪮샽ꆰ럇뗤탍럎퇗ꆱ뗄늡샽ꎬ뛸쟒짐쎻폐헒떽폐킧뿘훆틔벰훎쇆뗄랽램ꆣ튻쪱볤ꎬ훚쮵럗ꎬ룷훖룷퇹뗄닂닢튲뻍쿠펦뛸짺ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂ꎬ폐쿻쾢쮵냗듗ꆢ냥삶룹뿉틔웰떽풤럀뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ횮뫳ꎬ냗듗ꆢ냥삶룹뗄볛룱량헇ꆣ뇊헟퓚헢튻웚볤헽뫃퓚맣뚫퇴뒺뗘쟸ꎬ쟗짭뺭샺쇋헢튻듎볛룱뗄뇤뚯ꆣ 2퓂9죕짏컧ꎬ슽슽탸탸폐횪쟩뗄죋쪿뾪쪼퓚퇴뒺릺싲튻뚨솿뗄냗듗ꆢ냥삶룹ꎻ 2퓂9죕쿂컧ꎬ쿻쾢퓚릺싲맽돌훐톸쯙뒫능ꎬ냗듗ꆢ냥삶룹뗄볛룱뿬쯙짏헇ꎻ 2퓂10죕짏컧ꎬ욿ힰ냗듗뗄볛룱평풪튻욿짏짽떽4풪ꎬ냥삶룹평쎿듳냼15풪짏짽떽30풪ꎻ 2퓂10죕냸췭ꎬ냗듗뗄볛룱짏짽떽30풪튻욿ꎬ늢뫜뿬퓚퇴뒺돇쓚췑쿺ꎬ뛸냥삶룹퓧틑뻸쫐ꎬ뇊헟퓚듋쳽떽뗄ퟮ룟뗄놨볛캪150풪쎿듳냼ꆣ 2퓂12죕짏컧ꎬ평폚냗듗짺닺쯙뛈뷏뿬ꎬ릩펦뫜뿬늹짏ꎬ뛸쟒폐쿻쾢쮵웤쪵냗듗뗄ퟷ폃늻듳ꎬ냗듗볛룱쿂붵떽쎿욿10풪ퟳ폒ꎻ 2퓂12죕쿂컧ꎬ냗듗볛룱틑쿂뗸떽4떽5풪ꎻ 2퓂13죕ꎬ냗듗퓚쫐쏦짏틑뺭쯦뒦뿉볻ꎬ탂컅쎽쳥뛔듋잰뗄첧볛탐캪뷸탐움싛ꎬ폐맘맙랽믺릹뛔듋뷸탐쇋퇏샷뗄횸퓰ꎬ늢짹돆럇뗤뗄펰쿬뿉틔뿘훆ꎬ죃쫐쏱늻폃뺪믅ꎬ냗듗볛룱쿂붵떽1풪틔쿂ꎻ 2퓂15죕ꎬ퓚퇴붭뗘쟸랢짺쟀쏗쟀퇎쫂볾ꎬ쫂틲늻쿪ꆣ쿂컧ꎬ헻룶퇴붭퇴뒺뗘쟸쪳폃퇎췑쿺ꎻ 8
ꆭꆭ 듓짏쏦뗄쫂볾훐뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ퓚헢맽돌훐ꎬ듓훚탐캪뗄쳘헷쫇럇뎣쏷쿔뗄ꆣ퓚죧듋뛌뗄쪱볤쓚ꎬ늢늻쫇쎿튻룶죋뚼뛔쯹믱횪뗄탅쾢뷸탐쇋샭탔뗄럖컶ꎬ좻뫳퓙뷸탐뺭볃뻶닟ꆣ떱듳늿럖죋뷸탐쟀릺쪱ꎬ탭뛠죋튲뻍럗럗볓죫떽헢튻탐캪횮훐ꆣ뫳살쯹랢짺뗄쟀쏗쟀퇎쫂볾룼쫇죧듋ꎬ퓚뇊헟쯹뷓뒥뗄듳늿럖닎폫쏗퇎쟀릺뗄죋훐ꎬ늢쎻폐죎뫎죋쟥돾쫂쟩뗄웰틲ꆣ 죧뫎뷢쫍릫훚뗄헢킩탐캪ꎿ놸쫜췆돧뗄짧믡탄샭톧볒Solomon Asch퓚1952쓪1릫늼맽튻룶쪵퇩ꆣ뛔폚헢튻쪵퇩[힢1]ꎬ쯻뗄뷢쫍캪ꎺ쯼뇭쏷짧믡톹솦뛔룶죋에뛏뗄펰쿬쫇쪮럖잿쇒뗄ꆣ헢튻뷡싛뗃떽쇋맣랺뗄틽폃ꎬ냑쯼떱돉뿆톧틀뻝살횤쪵죋쏇늻쓜ퟶ췪좫뛀솢뗄에뛏ꆣ횱떽뷱쳬ꎬ쯻뗄쪵퇩뷡맻뮹놻죋쏇쯹틽폃ꆣ1955쓪뗄쪱뫲ꎬ2탄샭톧볒Morton Deutsch뫍Harold뷸튻늽뛔헢튻쪵퇩뷸탐쇋뷢쫍ꎬ쯻쏇뗄뷡싛쫇ꎬ횮쯹틔죋쏇믡폐듓훚뗄탐캪쫇틲캪쯻쏇볲떥뗘죏캪ꎬ늻뿉쓜웤쯻쯹폐죋뚼쫇듭뗄ꆣ죋쏇퓚죕뎣짺믮훐믡폐헢퇹튻룶뾼싇ꎺ퓚짦벰튻킩볲떥뗄쫂쪵탔뗄컊쳢짏ꎬ떱듳늿럖죋뚼ퟶ돶쿠춬뗄에뛏쪱ꎬ쓇쎴닮늻뛠뿉틔뿏뚨ꎬ듳늿럖죋뗄톡퓱쫇헽좷뗄ꆣ듋췢ꎬ듓짏쏦뗄볛룱늨뚯쿖쿳튲뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ뛔폚쒳킩쫂볾웤놾짭뗄뷡맻췪좫쫇평듳훚뗄ퟜ쳥탐캪뻶뚨뗄ꆣ틲뛸떱듳볒탎돉튻뇟떹쪱ꎬ폐쪱벴쪹듳훚탐캪쫇듭뗄ꎬ튲믡쪹뷡맻얤ꎬ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂ꎬ룶죋뗄ퟮ뫃톡퓱튲뻍쫇쯦듳쇷뗄톡퓱쇋ꆣ 듓훚탄샭쳘헷뛔폚죋뗄뺭볃뻶닟뗄펰쿬쫇뫜웕뇩뗄ꎬ헢뇭쏷퓚쏦뛔쒳튻탅쾢ퟶ돶에뛏뗄쪱뫲ꎬ뺡맜쎿룶죋뗄뻟쳥쟩뿶믡폐쯹늻춬ꎬ떫떱뫜뛠죋뚼쟣쿲쒳튻훖에뛏뗄쪱뫲ꎬ쓇쎴튻냣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ듳뛠쫽죋튲뚼믡닉좡쿠춬뗄에뛏ꆣ쳘뇰뗄ꎬ떱뾼싇쇋쯻죋뗄에뛏쪱ꎬ뻍쯣횪뗀쯻죋튲쫇튻훖듓훚탐캪ꎬ벴쪹췪좫샭탔뗄죋튲믡닎폫웤훐ꆣ쯤좻뻍룶죋뛸퇔ꎬ헢훖탐캪쫇뫏쟩뫏샭뗄ꎬ떫좷쟐뗄쮵ꎬ평듋닺짺뗄듓훚탐캪췹췹좴쫇럇샭탔뗄ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ듓헢룶틢틥짏쮵ꎬ듓훚탐캪쯹떼훂뗄쫇쒳킩럇샭탔탐캪뗄짧믡튻훂탔ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ맽뛈ퟔ탅ꎨoverconfidenceꎩ 쯦ퟅꆰ럇뗤웚볤ꆱ룷훖쟀릺탐캪튻웰랢짺뗄ꎬ쫇룷훖쇷퇔뗄삩즢ꆣ죋쏇죕뎣쯹첸싛뗃ퟮ뛠뗄쫇맘폚ꆰ럇뗤ꆱ뗄늡쟩벰웤쳘헷ꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ헢훖첸싛뗄랽쪽뛠쫇ꆰ쪲쎴뗘랽폖돶쿖튻샽ꎬ쓇죋쿖퓚퓵퇹쇋ꆱ믲헟ꆰ쒳죋퓚퓵퇹뗄쟩뿶쿂뻍좾짏쇋늡ꆱ믲헟ꆰ쪲쎴뚫컷뻝쮵뛔풤럀폐킧ꆱ뗈뗈ꆣ퓚헢킩붻첸훐ꎬ뫜쏷쿔뗄튻룶쫂쪵쫇ꎬ죋쏇ퟜ 1 Asch, Solomon, Social Psychology Englewood Cliffs, : Prentice Hall, 1952. 2 Deutsch, Morton and Harold B. Gerard. “A Study of Normative and Informatinal Social Influences upon Individual Judgement” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 1955(51):629~636. 9
죏캪쯻쏇횪뗀뗄뇈쪵볊튪뛠ꆣ쯻쏇ퟜ쫇틔튻뢱뫜좷뚨뗄랽쪽쿲뇰죋뇭듯ퟔ벺뗄맛뗣ꆣ폚쫇퓚뻝쮵ꆰ냥삶룹폐폃ꆱ틔벰ꆰ냗듗뿉틔풤럀ꆱ뗄쿻쾢쿂ꎬ듳뛠쫽죋뚼쫂쪵짏쒬죏쇋헢튻탅쓮ꆣ짵훁퓚돶쿖쇋ꆰ컼퇌뿉틔풤럀ꆱ뗄쿻쾢쿂ꎬ튲폐뫜뛠죋뾪쪼컼퇌믲헟냑헢튻쮵램틔룼볓뿏뚨뗄랽쪽뒫뗝룸쯻죋ꆣ 퓚에뛏죋뗄헢킩탐캪쳘헷쪱ꎬ죋쏇퓚탅퇶짏쯆뫵ퟜ폐쟷쿲탅탄맽뛈뗄잿쇒쟷쫆ꆣ죋쏇췹췹믡퓚뇰죋죏캪쯻늻룃폐탅탄뗄쓇킩쫂쟩짏닉좡탐뚯ꆣ탄샭톧볒Baruch FischhofꆢPaulSlovic뫍Sarah Lichtenstein횸돶ꎬ죧맻죃죋쏇믘듰튻킩볲떥뗄쫂쪵탔컊쳢ꎨ샽죧솽놾쇷뗃퓓횾훐쓄튻놾랢탐솿듳ꎬ믲헟쯀췶뗄솽훖뎣풭틲훐쓄훖룼뺭뎣랢짺ꎩ뺭뫳퓙컊쯻쏇듰낸뗄헽좷뗄룅싊ꎬ쯻쏇뎣뎣믡룟맀듰뛔컊쳢뗄룅싊ꆣ3죋쏇좷뚨ퟔ벺헽좷쪱ꎬ웤헽좷싊쪵볊짏횻폐80%ퟳ폒ꆣ맽뛈ퟔ탅뮹폐쇭튻훖뇭쿖뗄탎쪽ꎬ쓇뻍쫇죋쏇뛔킡룅싊쫂볾췹췹폐믡폐쯹뿤듳ꆣ헢튻뗣뿉틔듓뫜뛠뗄폐맘탐캪뷰죚뗄컄쿗훐랢쿖샽횤ꆣ 탅탄맽뛈놳뫳뗄풭틲죔좻쫇탄샭톧볒쏇헹싛뗄튻룶붹뗣ꆣ떫퓚죋뗄뺭볃탐캪훐ꎬ컒쏇좴뫜죝틗랢쿖죋뗄탅탄맽뛈뗄샭쿳ꆣShiller뷌쫚퓸ퟶ맽튻룶뗷닩[힢2]ꎬ랢쿖듳뛠쫽죋뚼쿠탅ꎬ듓뎤풶뗄뷇뛈살뾴ꎬ막욱쫇ퟮ뫃뗄춶ꎬ뛸쟒듳늿럖죋뚼볡탅막쫐퓚쿂뗸틔뫳튻뚨믡퓚솽쓪ퟳ폒뗄쪱볤랢짺랴떯ꎬ떫좴늻첫쿠탅죧맻막쫐퓚벱뻧짏짽횮뫳ꎬ퓚솽쓪쓚튻뚨믡뗸실ꎬ뺡맜쪵횤뗄뷡맻폫헢킩튻냣뗄탅쓮늢늻쿠럻ꆣ뛸퓚훐맺뗄막쫐짏ꎬ헢튻쿖쿳쯆뫵튲쫇럇뎣뗄쏷쿔ꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ퓚횤좯붻틗듳쳼샯ꎬ쎿튻룶ퟶ돶쇋춶톡퓱뗄막쏱퓚쿲뇰죋췆볶웤뾴뫃뗄막욱쪱ퟜ쫇쓜릻탅탄쪮ퟣ뗄뻙돶웤ꆰ샭평ꆱꆪꆪ헢훖샭평췹췹쫇튻킩뚯죋뗄맊쫂ꎬ뛸늢럇쪲쎴퇏뷷뗄싟벭췆샭ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ좨췾탔탄샭펰쿬 퓚헢듎ꆰ럇뗤ꆱ쫂볾훐ꎬ컒쏇뮹뿉틔쏷쿔뗄뾴떽릫릲탅쾢뛔릫훚탐캪뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚뛾퓂훐쿂톮ꎬ맣뚫뗘쟸쎽쳥랢늼쇋맙랽쿻쾢뇭쏷럇뗤늡쟩틑뺭뗃떽튻뚨뗄뿘훆ꎬ늢쟒폐쿠맘믺릹쮵늡풭쳥틑뺭랢쿖ꎬ룷훖첧룟튩컯볛룱뗄짌볒튲틲캪즢늼뿖믅ꆢ쒲좡놩샻뛸쫜떽퇏샷뗄뒦랣ꆣ듋뫳ꎬ쿠맘튩컯뗄볛룱훰붥욽컈쿂살ꎬ뛸듳뷖킡쿯튲뚼믖뢴쇋컴죕뗄랱죙ꎬ듷뿚헖뗄죋튲뇤뗃짙쇋ꆣ떽뛾퓂뗗ꎬ벴뇣퓚맣훝믰뎵햾헢퇹죋쇷쏜벯뗄뗘랽듷뿚헖뗄죋튲쾡쫨웰살ꆣ 3 Baruch FischhofꆢPaulSlovic and Sarah Lichtenstein, “Knowing with Uncertainty: The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence.” Journal of Experimental Psychology” Human Perception and Performance, 1997(3): 522~564 10
헢훖릫릲탅쾢뛔죋뗄탄샭펰쿬뿉돆횮캪좨췾탔뗄탄샭펰쿬ꆣ탄샭톧볒틑뺭횤쏷ꎬ죋쏇퓚쒣쯳솽뿉뗄쟩뿶쿂ퟶ돶뗄뻶뚨췹췹믡쫜짭뇟좨췾탔릫뾪탅쾢뗄펰쿬ꆣ탄4샭톧볒Stanley Milgram퓚좨췾좨솦랽쏦쯹ퟷ뗄퇐뺿돤럖뗘횤쏷쇋헢튻뗣ꆣ듓쯻뗄탄샭쪵퇩[힢3]뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ좨췾믡뛔죋뗄쿫램퓬돉뫜듳뗄펰쿬ꆣ웤훐튻룶뷢쫍쫇ꎺ듳뛠쫽죋횮잰뚼폐맽헢퇹뗄뺭샺ꎬ떱죋쏇뗄에뛏뫍쒳튻좨췾맛뗣쿠쪱ꎬ랸듭컳뗄퓚뻸듳뛠쫽뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뇘좻쫇쯻쏇ퟔ벺뛸늻쫇좨췾ꆣ튻떩좨췾뗃떽붨솢ꎬ죋쏇믡럇뎣뗘ퟰ훘좨췾뗄뾴램ꎬ좻뫳뛔헢킩뾴램닺짺뻞듳뗄탅죎룐ꆣ 듓헢훖탄샭쳘헷돶랢ꎬ뿉틔뾴떽좨췾탔탄샭퓚훐맺뺭볃훐웰ퟅ뫜듳뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ탂훐맺붨짨뗄샺쪷쪹헾뢮뗄좨췾탔퓚죋쏇뗄뺭볃믮뚯훐폐ퟅ늻뿉뚯튡뗄뗘캻ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ듺뇭헾뢮맛뗣뗄릫릲탅쾢붫뛔훐맺뗄뺭볃닺짺훘듳뗄펰쿬ꆣ벴쪹쫇퓚막쫐짏ꎬ떱막쫐랢짺맽뛈뗄랴펦쪱ꎬ튻횽ꆰ짧싛ꆱ뻍쓜웰떽쇮죋컞램쿫쿳뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ웴랢탔탄샭펰쿬 퓚ꆰ럇뗤ꆱ쫂볾훐ꎬ듳뛠쫽죋웤쪵뚼뫜쟥돾ꎬ냥삶룹늢쎻폐좨췾뗄쮵램횤쏷쓜폐킧뗄풤럀ꆰ럇뗤ꆱꎬ떫캪쪲쎴죔좻믡닺짺듳솿뗄릺싲쓘ꎿ춬쪱ꎬ캪쪲쎴믡돶살ꆰ컼퇌쓜풤럀럇뗤ꆱ뗄쮵램늢닺짺튻뚨뗄펰쿬ꎿ헢킩훖훖뗄쿖쿳뚼폫죋뗄쇭튻훖탄샭쿖쿳ꎬ벴웴랢탔탄샭폐맘ꆣ 웴랢탔탄샭럖솽훖쟩탎ꎺ튻쫇킡퇹놾욫닮믲퇹놾죝솿뗄뫶쫓(sample size neglect)ꎬ벴틔욫룅좫ꎻ튻쫇믹놾움에뗄뫶쫓(base rate neglect)ꆣ쯹캽퇹놾죝솿뗄뫶쫓쫇횸퓚맀볆A쫴폚B(믲쫽뻝A평쒣탍B짺돉)뗄룅싊쪱ꎬ죋쏇뎣뎣폃A랴펳B믹놾쳘헷뗄돌뛈살맀볆룅싊ꆣ뛸쟒죋쏇뎣뎣폃솽죽룶쫂샽ꎨ쿠쯆뷡맻ꎩ뻍ퟶ돶튻냣탔뷡싛ꆣ뛸쯹캽믹놾움에뗄뫶쫓쫇횸룸ퟮ뷼랢짺뗄쫂볾믲횤뻝폨맽뛠뗄좨훘뛸뫶쫓믹놾움에뫍룼퓧쿈뗄횤뻝ꆣ웴랢탔탄샭퓚Tversky뫍Kahneman뗄탭뛠쪵퇩훐뗃떽쇋퇩횤ꆣ쯻쏇뗄탄샭쪵퇩뇭쏷ꎬ죋쏇퓚늻좷뚨뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ웤뻶뚨췹췹믡쫜짭뇟뗄틲쯘펰쿬ꎬ늢믡뛔붫살뗄쒣쪽틔맽좥쿠쯆믲쫬쾤뗄쒣쪽ퟶ돶에뛏ꎬ뛸쎻폐뾼싇헢훖쒣쪽뗄풭틲믲헟쒣쪽랢짺뗄룅싊ꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ죃죋쏇듓튻헅킴폐죋쏻벰룶죋탋좤쳘헷뗄쇐뇭훐닂닢헢킩죋뗄횰튵ꆣ죧맻룸돶뗄탋좤쳘헷쫇틕쫵탔뫍쏴룐ꎬ죋쏇췹췹믡톡퓱횸믓볒믲뗱쯜볒헢샠횰튵ꎬ뛸늻믡톡퓱릤죋믲쏘쫩ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ튻룶죋뗄횰튵쫇릤죋뗄룅싊튪뇈쯻쫇틕쫵볒뗄룅싊풶풶룟뗃뛠ꆣ웴랢탔탄샭펰쿬폐쪱짵훁믡랢햹돉캪튻훖ꆰ짱쏘ꆱ뗄탄샭쟽뚯ꆣ뛔뛄춽뗄탄샭쪵퇩퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ튻룶뛄춽죧맻쿠탅쒳훖쫂컯뗄랢짺믡룸쯻듸살뫃퓋웸ꎬ퓲쯻뗄춶믺탐캪믡풶풶뗄뎬맽욽쪱ꆣ 4 Milgram, Stanley, Obedience to Authority. New York: Harper and Row, 1974. 11
헢훖쿖쿳퓚막쫐훐튲쫇럇뎣뎣볻뗄ꆣ퓚뇊헟폫듳뛠막쏱뗄뷓뒥훐랢쿖ꎬ쯻쏇뚼믡폐ퟔ벺뗄튻쳗톡막뫍톡쪱뗄랽램ꎬ떫헢킩랽램뿉캽컥뮨냋쏅좴듳뚼쎻폐퇏쏜뗄싟벭ꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ막쏱뛔폚막뗄ힷퟙ쯹틀뻝뗄췹췹뻍쫇튻킩짱뫵웤짱뗄웴랢탔탅쾢ꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ헢훖웴랢탔탄샭뗄펰쿬듳뛠틔쮽죋탅쾢뗄랽쪽살뷸탐뒫뗝뗄ꆣ ꎨ5ꎩ뛔캴살뗄늻좷뚨탔 ꆰ럇뗤웚볤ꆱꎬ뇊헟퓚맣뚫쫕떽쇋뫜뛠살ퟔ놱뺩뗄엳폑뗄컊뫲ꎬ뛸쟒듳뛠엳폑튲퓚좰떼뇊헟뺡뿬샫뾪맣뚫뛸믘떽놱뺩ꆣ뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ뺡맜맣뚫ꆢ쿣룛뗈뗘늡쟩싻퇓뫜뿬ꎬ떫퓚놱뺩뗘쟸ꎬ뮹쫇럇뎣욽뺲뗄ꆣ뇊헟믘떽놱뺩뫳ꎬ뺡맜훜캧뗄죋튲믡폐쯹쳖싛ꎬ떫뚼냑쯼떱ퟷ쫇튻볾샫ퟔ벺뫜튣풶뗄쫂뷸탐쳖싛ꆣ듓죽퓂훐쿂톮ꎬ놱뺩뾪쪼뒫돶랢쿖늡샽뗄쿻쾢ꆣ죋쏇뾪쪼슽탸릺싲냥삶룹ꆢ뿚헖뗈컯욷ꆣ횮뫳ꎬ놱뺩틟쟩뗃떽릫뾪탅쾢뗄횤쪵ꆣ튻쿂ퟓꎬ헻룶돇쫐뚼쿝죫튻욬뿖믅횮훐ꎬ평폚놱듳ꆢ놱붻듳틔벰놱몽뗈룟킣랢쿖늡샽ꎬ욽뺲뗄룟킣킣풰쯆뫵튻쿂ퟓ놻쯀췶뗄뿖뻥쯹쇽헖ꎬ놱붻듳룼쫇랢짺쇋죋좥슥뿕뗄톧짺샫킣략볒쿖쿳ꆣ헢훖평쒮쫓떽튻쿂ퟓ맽뛈랴펦뗄탄샭쿖쿳뚼뇭쏷쇋죋쏇뛔폚헢튻쫂볾뗄탄샭뻠샫뗄뇤뮯ꆣ 5탄샭톧볒Shafir폫Tversky튲뛔헢튻탄샭쿖쿳볓틔쇋횤쏷ꆣ룹뻝쯻쏇뗄뷡싛ꎬ퓚쫂쟩쪵볊랢짺횮잰ꎬ죋쏇웤쪵컞램뻶뚨쯻쏇뗄탐캪ꆣ뺡맜죋쏇ퟜ믡쫂쿈내헕쫂쟩랢짺뗄싟벭랽쪽살뷸탐쮼뾼ꎬ떫쿖쪵쫀뷧훐뗄뻶닟췹췹놻쟩룐뫍좱랦좷뚨뗄쒿뇪쯹헚뇎ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ죋쏇뗄탐캪뫍탄샭랴펦믡쫜떽쫂쟩랢짺뗄풶뷼뛸폐뫜듳뗄늻춬ꆣ퓚헢튻맽돌훐ꎬ죋쏇뷸탐풤웚쯹쏦쇙뗄삧쓑뻍퓚폚쯻쏇ퟔ벺붫살뗄룐뻵ꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ죋쏇뚼쟥돾컼퇌폐몦짭쳥붡뾵늢쟒뿉쓜믡떼훂럎납ꆣ떫늢쎻폐뛠짙퇌쏱뛔헢튻컊쳢룐떽뿖믅뛸럅웺컼퇌ꆣ풭틲쫇ꎬ평폚컼퇌뛸뗃뻸횢ꎬ쓇쫇ꆰ냋냙쓪틔뫳뗄쫂쇋ꆱꆣ떫튻룶죋죧맻풤웚벸쳬틔뫳쯻뻍믡폐튻뇊뫜듳뗄쫕죫ꎬ쓇쯻뫜폐뿉쓜퓚뷱쳬뻍믡쿱쯻틑뺭믱뗃쇋쓇뇊쫕죫쓇퇹좥쿻럑ꆣ쯹틔뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ죋쏇뛔샫ퟔ벺뫜풶뗄쫂쟩ퟜ쫇룸폨뷏뗍뗄훘쫓뛸뛔퇛잰뗄쫂쟩ퟜ쫇믡폐뷏룟뗄훘쫓ꆣ 헢훖탄샭쿖쿳튲퓚쿖쪵짺믮훐뛔컒쏇뗄뺭볃닺짺ퟅ뫜훘튪뗄펰쿬ꆣ죋쏇ퟜ쫇룼뛠뗄뾴훘튻쿮뺭볃헾닟뛔폚떱잰뗄뺭볃ힴ뿶뗄펰쿬뛸뛔웤ퟶ돶움볛ꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ컞싛컒쏇죧뫎뿠뿚웅탄뗘룦쯟쯹폐뗄막쏱ꎬ듓뎤풶살뾴ꎬ맺폐막복돖믡룄짆헻룶막쫐뗄훊솿ꎬ믡룸춶헟듸살뫃뒦ꎬ떫쯼쯹틽웰뗄막쫐쿂뗸뗄탄샭톹솦좷쪵튪풶풶뎬맽웤쏀뫃잰뺰뗄탄샭풤웚ꆣ 5 Shafir, Eldar, and Amos Tversky. “Thinking through Uncertainty: Nonconsequential Reasoning and Choice.” Cognitive Psychology, 1992(24): 449~474. 12
ꎨ6ꎩퟜ뷡 떱좻ꎬ뮹폐웤쯼뗄탄샭틲쯘믡펰쿬떽죋뗄뺭볃탐캪ꆣ춬쪱헢킩늻춬뗄탄샭쿖쿳폖ퟜ쫇쿠뮥틽떼ꆢ쿠뮥펰쿬뗄ꎬ컒쏇뫜쓑좥뛀솢뗄에뛏쓄킩닅쫇떼훂쒳킩뺭볃쿖쿳뗄ퟮ캪훷튪뗄탄샭풭틲ꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ죋뗄탄샭탐캪놳뫳쫇벫웤뢴퓓뗄짧믡뮷뺳ꆢ샺쪷컄뮯틔벰룶죋뺭샺뗈훖훖틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ헢뻍쪹뗃냑탄샭탐캪죫떽뺭볃톧쒣탍훐쳖싛죋뗄뺭볃뻶닟컊쳢쿔뗃룼볓뗄삧쓑쇋ꆣ 뺡맜죧듋ꎬ컒쏇죔좻뿉틔냑튻킩뗤탍뗄탄샭쿖쿳ꆰ돩쿳ꆱ돶살ꎬ뾼달웤쯹듸살뗄죋뗄뺭볃탐캪뗄뇤뮯ꆣ퓚놾컄훐ꎬ컒쏇쯹튪ퟶ뗄튲헽쫇냑짏쏦쯹쳖싛뗄벸룶뗤탍뗄탄샭쿖쿳ꆰ돩쿳ꆱ돶튻킩맘볼뗄뇤솿뫍몯쫽탎쪽럅죫떽룶죋킧폃몯쫽훐ꎬ듓뛸뾼달웤뛔죋뗄뺭볃뻶닟뗄펰쿬ꆣ 3ꎮ룶죋탄샭풤웚뗄쳖싛 ꎨ1ꎩ볛횵몯쫽뗄쳖싛 퓚뒫춳뗄뺭볃톧샭싛훐ꎬ죋뗄킧폃쫇틔닺돶x뗄몯쫽U(x)살뇭쪾뗄ꎬ쯼쯹랴펳뗄쫇쿻럑헟뛔쒳튻닺돶x뗄훷맛움볛ꆣ캪쇋랽뇣뾼달막쫐훐뗄탐캪ꎬ컒쏇퇘폃Kahneman뫍Tversky뗄ퟶ램ꎬ샻폃볛횵몯쫽v(x)살뇭쪾헢튻훷맛움볛ꎬ폫풭살킧폃몯쫽늻춬뗄쫇ꎬ헢샯뗄x뇭쪾뗄쫇ퟮ훕닺돶폫쒳튻닎뾼뗣뗄닮뛮ꎬ튲벴랴펳뗄쫇쫕틦믲헟쯰쪧ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ죋쏇뗄탄샭ힴ첬쫇룹뻝쯻뗄뷰ힴ뿶뗄뇤뮯뛸늻쫇뻸뛔뗄쫽뛮살뷸탐뗷헻뗄ꆣ헢폫컒쏇퓚쪵볊막욱춶훐뗄탄샭ힴ뿶튲쫇쿠튻훂뗄ꆣ떫돏죧Kahneman쯹퇔ꎬ헢훖뒦샭늢늻틢캶ퟅ닎뾼뗣믲돵쪼뗄닆뢻쫇늻훘튪뗄ꆣ퇏룱뗄쮵ꎬ볛횵몯쫽펦룃냼몬솽룶뇤솿ꎺퟷ캪닎뾼뗣뗄닺볛횵틔벰닺뗄뇤뮯ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ뛔폚춬퇹뗄닺뇤뮯ꎬ평폚돵쪼닆뢻뗄늻춬ꎬ웤뛔닺뇤뮯뗄훷맛움볛튲쫇늻튻퇹뗄ꆣ 죋뗄뫜뛠룐뻵폫탄샭뗄랴펦뚼쫇뻟폐낼탔뗄ꆣ뇈죧쮵튻룶죋뿉틔뫜죝틗뗘룐뻵컂뛈듓3뛈뇤뮯떽8뛈ꎬ떫좴뫜쓑룐뻵떽20뛈떽25뛈뗄뇤뮯ꆣ컒쏇볙뚨ꎬ퓚죋뛔닺뇤뮯뗄훷맛움볛훐ꎬ튲뻟폐헢튻탄샭쫴탔ꆣ튲벴펮뗃100풪폫펮뗃200풪쿠뇈뷏뗄탄샭움볛닮틬쫇튪듳폚펮뗃1100풪폫펮뗃1200풪뗄탄샭닮틬ꆣ듓헢튻뗣짏쮵ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔볙뚨볛횵몯쫽퓚닎뾼뗣뗄짏랽쪱폫풭살뗄킧폃몯쫽튻퇹ꎬ쫇낼뗄뗝퓶몯쫽ꎬ튲벴v'(x)>0ꎬv''(x)<0ꎬ떱x>0쪱ꆣ 13
떫쫇ꎬ폫풭살뗄킧폃몯쫽늻춬뗄쫇ꎬ헢샯뮹튪뾼싇쯰쪧뗄쟩뿶ꎬ튲벴떱닺뗄뇤뮯캪뢺쪱ꎬ볛횵몯쫽폐쪲쎴퇹뗄탔훊ꆣGalanter벰Pliner퓸퇐뺿쇋죋쏇뛔믵뇒틔벰럇믵뇒탎쪽뗄쫕틦뫍쯰쪧뗄탄샭움볛ꆣ쯻쏇뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ죋쏇뗄훷맛움볛좴쫇춹뗄ꎬ벴v'(x)>0ꎬv''(x)>0ꎬ떱x<0쪱ꆣ틔짏뗄럖컶쫇믹폚죋쏇뛔좷뚨뷡맻뗄탄샭움볛ꎬ뛸Kahneman퓚탄샭쪵퇩훐뷸튻늽횤쏷쇋죋쏇뛔폚늻좷뚨탔쫂볾뗄탄샭움볛튲뻟폐춬퇹뗄쳘헷ꆣ 춬쪱ꎬ죧컒쏇잰쏦쯹쳖싛맽뗄튻퇹ꎬ뛔죋뗄킧폃몯쫽믲볛횵몯쫽뗄쳖싛뮹펦튪뾼싇죋뗄짧믡뮷뺳틲쯘틔벰탄샭틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ평폚뷰뗄폃춾늻춬ꎬ죋뛔쫕틦믲쯰쪧뗄움볛튲믡늻튻퇹ꎬ벱탨폃잮뗄죋뗃떽튻뇊잮뗄킧폃믲볛횵떱좻튪듳뗃뛠ꆣ틲듋ꎬ헢샯볛횵몯쫽쯹랴펳뗄늢늻떥뒿쫇룶죋뛔닺뇤뮯뗄첬뛈ꆣ틲뛸튪쟥돾뗄쫇ꎬ컞싛쫇퓚낼뗄쟸폲뮹쫇퓚춹뗄쟸폲ꎬ평폚폐웤쯻틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꎬ뚼믡폐뿉쓜폐쿠랴뗄쟩뿶돶쿖ꆣ 쇭췢튻룶컒쏇튪퓚컒쏇뗄볛횵몯쫽훐랴펳뗄쳘헷쫇ꎬ죋쏇뛔폚쯰쪧뗄탄샭춴뿠돌뛈튪듳폚춬퇹쫽쒿뗄쫕틦뇤뮯쯹듸살뗄뿬샖돌뛈ꆣ춨쯗뗄쮵ꎬ펮뗃튻뇊잮룸죋듸살뗄뿬샖튪뗍폚쯻쪧좥춬퇹튻뇊잮뗄쓑맽ꆣ틲뛸듳뛠쫽죋뚼믡뛔헢훖뛔돆뗄뛄늩ꎨx,;-x,ꎩ탎쪽쫇쎻폐쪲쎴탋좤뗄ꆣ춬퇹ꎬ뛄힢뗄쫽쒿풽듳ꎬ죋쏇뻍풽늻믡뛔쯼룐탋좤ꆣ 튲벴죧맻x>y≥0ꎬ퓲(y,;−y,);(x,;−x,)ꆣ 평볛횵몯쫽살뇭쪾퓲폐ꎺ v(y)+v(−y)>v(x)+v(−x), 듓뛸ꎬv(−y)−v(−x)>v(x)−v(y)ꆣ 떱y→0쪱ꎬ컒쏇폐−v(−x)>v(x)ꎻ 떱y→x쪱ꎬ컒쏇폐v'(x)<v'(−x)ꆣ 틲뛸ꎬv(x)뿉틔평쿂춼뇭쪾ꎺ 14
v(x) 쯰쪧쫕틦 x 춼1 ꎨ2ꎩ좨훘몯쫽 컒쏇퓚뾼달쇋춶헟뗄볛횵몯쫽횮뫳ꎬ뮹튪뾼싇춶헟뛔맀닢쫂볾랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔뗄뾴램ꆣ헢킩뾴램폐쪱믡횱뷓펰쿬떽춶헟뗄뺭볃뻶닟탐캪ꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ벴쪹쫇퓚쿟탔뗄볛횵몯쫽쿂ꎬ평폚뛔쫂볾랢짺뿉쓜탔뗄첬뛈뗄늻춬ꎬ튲믡떼훂춶헟럧쿕믘뇜믲럧쿕ힷ쟳뗄탐캪쳘헷ꆣ 퓚뒫춳뗄뺭볃톧샭싛훐ꎬ뛔쫂볾랢짺뿉쓜탔뗄쏨쫶튻냣쫇폃뿍맛룅싊살뷸탐쏨쫶뗄ꆣ떫쫇룶죋뛔뿉쓜탔뗄뾴램좴늢늻튻뚨폫뿍맛룅싊쿠튻훂ꆣ틲뛸ꎬRamsey틔벰Savage튲쳡돶맽훷맛룅싊뗄쮵램ꎬ튲벴룶죋뗄훷맛짏에뚨뗄쫂볾랢짺뗄룅싊듳킡ꆣ벴쪹헢퇹ꎬ뇊헟죏캪훷맛룅싊튲늢늻쓜췪좫뇭쪾돶춶헟뛔쒳튻볾쫂볾랢짺뿉쓜탔뗄첬뛈ꆣ퓚쿖쪵짺믮훐췹췹믡돶쿖헢퇹뗄쟩뿶ꎬ벴쪹룶죋쏷좷횪뗀쒳튻쫂볾랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔쫇뫜뗍뗄ꎨ컞싛쫇뿍맛룅싊뮹쫇훷맛룅싊ꎩꎬ떫쯻튲믡뛔헢볾쫂뢳폨뫜룟뗄훘쫓ꎨ좨훘ꎩꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ탄샭톧쪵퇩퓸횤쏷쇋죋뛔킡룅싊쫂볾믡폐뿤듳뗄쟣쿲ꆣ 퓚놾컄훐ꎬ컒쏇닎헕Kahneman폫Tversky뗄ퟶ램ꎬ폃π(p)살뇭쪾룶죋뛔쒳튻6맀닢쫂볾랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔뗄뾴램ꎬ떫폫쯻쏇늻춬뗄쫇ꎬ헢샯뗄p뇭쪾뗄쫇훷맛룅싊뛸늢럇뿍맛룅싊ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ좨훘몯쫽π(p)쫇훷맛룅싊p뗄몯쫽ꎬ뛸훷맛룅싊놾짭믡쫜떽룶죋쯹뷓뒥떽뗄탅쾢ꎨ냼삨릫릲탅쾢뫍쮽죋탅쾢ꎩ뗄펰쿬ꆣ 6 퓚놾컄훐ꎬ컒쏇볙뚨훷맛룅싊뚼쫇듦퓚뗄ꆣ뺡맜폐뿉쓜쎿룶룶쳥뗄훷맛룅싊폐뿉쓜늢럇튻훂ꆣ 15
컒쏇뷓쿂살쳖싛튻쿂좨훘몯쫽π(p)뗄쒳쳘헷ꆣ뫜ퟔ좻뗄ꎬπ(p)쫇훷맛룅싊뗄퓶몯쫽ꎬ튲벴튻룶죋죏캪쒳볾쫂랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳ꎬ퓲쯻뢳폨쯼뗄좨훘튲뻍풽듳ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ컒쏇볙뚨π(0)=0ꎬπ(1)=1ꎬ헢뇭쏷죧맻쒳볾쫂쫇늻뿉쓜랢짺뗄ꎬ퓲룶죋튲뻍늻믡퓚뫵쯼ꎬ죧맻쒳볾쫂쫇뇘좻랢짺ꎬ퓲룶죋튲믡뢳폨쯼췪좫뗄좨훘ꆣ듋췢ꎬ컒쏇뮹폐0<π(p)<1ꎬ뛔폚0<p<1ꆣ 룹뻝Kahneman뫍Tversky뗄탄샭쪵퇩뇭쏷ꎬ뛔폚킡룅싊쫂볾뛸퇔ꎬ죋쏇ퟜ쫇7믡뢳폨맽룟뗄좨훘ꆣ웤쪵헢퓚컒쏇뗄죕뎣짺믮훐튲쫇뫜뎣볻뗄ꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ튻헅잧럖횮튻뗄훐붱룅싊뛸붱뷰뛮캪5000풪뗄붱좯ꎬ웤릺싲볛쫇5풪ꎬ쓇춶헟믡늻믡릺싲쓘ꎿ내헕뒫춳뗄뺭볃톧샭싛ꎬ죧맻춶헟쫇럧쿕믘뇜탍뗄ꎬ퓲쯻펦톡퓱늻릺싲ꆣ떫쫂쪵짏ꎬ폫횮샠쯆뗄닊욱좴쿺쫛뗃럇뎣뫃ꆣ헢튻컊쳢뿉틔뇭쪾캪ꎨ5000ꎬꎩ틔벰(5)횮볤뗄톡퓱컊쳢ꆣ퓚탄샭쪵퇩훐ꎬ72%뗄죋믡톡퓱잰헟ꆣ떫춬쪱ꎬ쪵퇩뮹뇭쏷ꎬ퓚ꎨ-5000,ꎩ틔벰(-5)뗄톡퓱컊쳢ꎨ헢웤쪵뻍쫇놣쿕컊쳢ꎩ훐ꎬ83%뗄죋믡톡퓱뫳헟ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽ꎺ π()iv(5000)>v(5)ꎬ v(5)5π()>>=ꎬꎨ떱x>0쪱ꎬv''(x)<0ꎩꎻ v(5000)5000춬샭ꎬπ()iv(−5000)<v(−5)ꎬ v(−5)−5π()>>=ꎬꎨ떱x<0쪱ꎬv''(x)>0ꎩꆣ v(−5000)−5000헢샯튪뷸탐쟸럖뗄쫇뢳폨좨훘맽룟폫맽룟맀볆웤랢짺뿉쓜탔쫇늻튻퇹뗄ꆣ벴쪹춶헟쓜릻헽좷뗄맀볆쒳튻쫂볾랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔ꎬ맽뛈뗄좨훘튲뮹쫇믡돶쿖뗄ꆣ죧짏샽쯹쪾ꆣ뾼싇떽헢튻뗣ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔퓝늻뾼싇훷맛룅싊뗄펰쿬틲쯘ꎬ뛸뷶뷶쿈뾼싇좨훘몯쫽뗄쫴탔ꆣ튲벴컒쏇퓚헢샯쿈뿉틔늻쟸럖훷맛룅싊뫍뿍맛룅싊ꆣ 퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂ꎬπ(p)퓚ꎨ0ꎬ1ꎩ쟸볤샯뗄킱싊뗄뇤뚯쟩뿶뻍뿉틔뾴ퟷ쫇룶죋뛔룅싊뇤뚯뗄쏴룐뛈ꆣ퓚튻냣쟩뿶쿂ꎨ룅싊늻쫇뫜듳튲늻쫇뫜킡ꎩꎬ죋쏇뛔폚룅싊뗄뇤뚯췹췹쫇늻쏴룐뗄ꎬ튲벴죋쏇뛔뗄뿉쓜탔틔벰뗄뿉쓜탔뗄훷맛룐뻵늢쎻폐뫜듳뗄늻춬ꆣ헢뇭쏷π()−π()<−ꎬ튲벴퓚ꎨ0ꎬ1ꎩ쟸볤뗄훐볤캻훃뢽뷼ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔죏캪π'(p)<1ꆣ 7 Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases”, Science, 1974(185): 124~131 16
쇭췢튻룶폐좤뗄쿖쿳쫇죋쏇뛔좷뚨쫂볾뗄쟣쿲췹췹튪룼볓쏷쿔ꎨ튲벴탄샭톧짏뗄좷뚨쫂볾킧펦ꎩꆣ헢뿉틔듓쿂쏦튻룶샽ퟓ살쮵쏷ꎺ 뾼달1ꎺAꎨ4000,ꎩ믲B(3000)ꎻ 뾼달2ꎺA(1000,) 믲B(500)ꎻ 뫁늻웦맖뗄ꎬ듳뛠쫽죋퓚솽룶뾼달컊쳢훐뚼믡톡퓱Bꎬ퓚Tversky쯹뷸탐뗄탄샭쪵퇩훐ꎬ뾼달1톡퓱B뗄죋햼쇋80%ꎬ뛸뾼달2톡퓱B뗄죋퓲햼쇋84%ꆣ 8듋췢ꎬ탄샭뗄쪵퇩뇭쏷ꎬ죋쏇뛔쫂볾뗄뿉쓜탔뮹폐튻룶쏷쿔뗄탄샭쳘헷ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ뛔폚벫뛋뗄킡룅싊쫂볾ꎬ튲벴럇뎣뗄늻뿉쓜뗄쫂볾ꎬ죋쏇믡볙뚨웤벸뫵뻍쫇늻믡랢짺뗄ꆣ떫뛔폚벫뛋뗄듳룅싊뗄쫂볾ꎬ죋쏇튲믡볙뚨웤랢짺벸뫵쫇뇘좻뗄ꎬ튲벴ꎺ 떱p→0쪱ꎬπ(p)=0ꎻ 떱p→1쪱ꎬπ(p)=1ꆣ 폐쇋헢킩쫴탔ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔폃쿂춼살뇭쪾π(p)ꎺ π(p) 1 π(p) 45 춼2 헢튻춼탎폫Kahneman뫍Tversky쯹뗃떽뗄춼탎쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ컒쏇늻쓜췼볇뗄튻뗣쫇ꎬ컒쏇헢샯뗄π(p)훷맛룅싊뛸럇뿍맛룅싊뗄몯쫽ꆣ튲벴룅싊p쯹뇭쪾뗄쫇룶죋룹뻝웤쯹뗃떽뗄탅쾢뛸뛔쫂볾랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔듳킡뗄맀볆ꆣ틲뛸컒쏇뮹튪뛔훷맛룅싊뷸탐튻뚨뗄쳖싛ꆣ컒쏇볙뚨p놾짭쫇탅쾢솿I뗄몯쫽PꎨIꎩꆣ훷맛룅싊p폫 8 Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Prosect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk”, Econometrica, 1979(47): 263~290 17
뿍맛룅싊퓚뫜뛠쟩뿶쿂쫇튻훂뗄ꎬ죧컒쏇퓚짏쏦쯹쳖싛뗄헢킩샽ퟓꆣ떫춬퇹튲뺭뎣믡랢짺늻튻훂뗄쪱뫲ꎬ뇈죧쮵ꎬ죧맻룶죋뛔쒳튻쫂볾뗄탅쾢솿I캪0쪱ꎬ튲벴쯻룹놾늻횪뗀헢훖쫂볾뗄듦퓚쪱ꎬ쯻튲뻍뛔헢훖쫂볾랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔뗄맀볆튲뻍캪0ꆣ벴Pꎨ0ꎩ=0ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ룶죋뛔쒳볾쫂컯랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔쫇폫웤쯹헆컕뗄탅쾢쿠맘뗄ꎬ헆컕뗄탅쾢솿풽뛠풽폐킧ꎬ훷맛룅싊뻍믡풽뷓뷼폚뿍맛룅싊ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ탄샭뻠샫뗄펰쿬 퓚잰쏦컒쏇퓸쳖싛쇋죋쏇뛔폚캴살쫂볾뗄늻좷뚨탔틔벰웴랢탔탄샭뛔죋쏇탄샭뻠샫뗄펰쿬ꎬ튲벴죋쏇뛔폚짭뇟랢짺뗄쫂뫍ퟮ뷼랢짺뗄쫂룸폨뗄훘쫓돌뛈쫇룼룟뗄ꎬ뛸뛔폚뫜풶뗄쫂믲뫜뻃틔뫳뗄쫂퓲믡닺짺뫶쫓ꆣ듓헢룶틢틥짏ꎬ죋뗄탄샭뻠샫뿉쾸럖캪쪱볤탄샭뻠샫뫍뿕볤탄샭뻠솽훖ꆣ 쪱볤탄샭뻠샫ꆪꆪ탂쿻쾢쫇럱닺짺펰쿬믲펰쿬듳킡ꎬ폫쿻쾢뫃뮵컞맘믲맘쾵늻듳ꎬ횻폫쿻쾢쓚죝쯹뷒쪾쫂볾뗄랢짺쯹탨쪱볤뗄뎤뛌폐맘ꆣ샽죧ꎬ죋쏇뛔캴살뗄늻좷뚨탔쯹퓬돉뗄뻶닟삧쓑틔벰죋쏇뛔탂뷼랢짺쫂볾뗄맽뛈훘쫓뗈뚼쫇뛔쪱볤탄샭뻠샫뗄랴펳ꆣ뿕볤탄샭뻠샫ꆪꆪ탂쿻쾢쫇럱닺짺펰쿬믲펰쿬듳킡폫쿻쾢쯹뷒쪾쫂볾샫ퟔ벺뿕볤뻠샫뗄풶뷼쿠맘ꎬ샫ퟔ벺뻠샫풽뷼풽쫇룸폨좨훘풽듳ꆣ헢뿉틔듓죋뗄웴랢탔탄샭뗃떽퇩횤ꎬ튲벴죋쏇뗄움볛ퟜ쫇쫜떽짭뇟뗄쯹랢짺뗄쫂쟩뗄뷏듳펰쿬ꆣ샽죧ꎬ뿖닀쫂볾평폚풶퓚쏀맺ꎬ맺쓚죋쏇뛔랢짺뿖닀쫂볾랴펦늻쫇뫜잿쇒ꎬ떫뛔놱듳쟥뮪쪳쳃놬햨쫂볾퓲룐떽뿖믅ꆣ a.뿕볤탄샭뻠샫뛔훷맛룅싊뗄펰쿬 죴쫂볾뗄랢짺닺짺뿕볤캻틆ꎬ뻍믡떼훂훷맛룅싊뗄룄뇤ꆣퟮ돵퓚맣뚫랢짺럇뗤쪱ꎬ놱뺩벰웤쯻쪡쫐맘탄늻ퟣꎬ뛸뒫좾떽놱뺩늢퓬돉듳쏦믽놬랢쪱ꎬ죋쏇뻍뺪믅쪧듫짵훁뿖뻥ꆣ헢쫇웰돵맽뗍맀볆룅싊ꎬ뛸떱뿕볤탄샭뻠샫랢짺뇤뮯쪱퓲폖뗷룟룅싊ꆣ평폚죋쏇ퟜ믡뛔폚짭뇟뗄쫂볾룼볓훘쫓ꎬ틲뛸죋쏇퓚뛔쒳킩맀닢쫂볾랢짺뿉쓜탔뷸탐맀볆쪱ꎬ웤훷맛룅싊췹췹튪쫜떽짭뇟쫂볾뗄뫜듳뗄웴랢탔펰쿬ꆣ 튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ죧맻튻볾쫂쟩뗄랢짺뛔폚룶죋뛸퇔ꎬ웤뿕볤탄샭뻠샫풽뷼ꎬ퓲죋쏇뛔폚웤랢짺뿉쓜탔뗄맀볆뻍풽듳ꆣ떫죧맻튻룶죋퓚웤훜캧듓살뾴늻떽샠쯆쫂볾뗄랢짺ꎬ튲벴웤탄샭뻠샫뷏풶ꎬ퓲쯻뛔폚쫂볾랢짺뿉쓜탔뗄맀볆뻍믡복짙ꆣ뇈죧싲닊욱뗄샽ퟓꎬ죧맻퓚튻룶떥캻샯쒳죋훜캧뗄뫜뛠죋뚼춨맽닊욱훐쇋붱ꎬ쓇쎴쯻좥싲닊욱뗄뚯솦뻍믡듳듳퓶볓ꎬ쯻믡뻵뗃ퟔ벺훐붱뗄뿉쓜탔뇈쪵볊뗄뿉쓜탔튪룟ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ죧맻쯻훜캧쎻폐튻룶죋퓸뺭훐맽붱ꎬ쓇쎴쯻뗄훷맛룅싊뻍믡붵뗍ꆣ 18
늻쓑랢쿖ꎬ펰쿬뿕볤탄샭뻠샫뗄쇭튻룶훘튪틲쯘쫇탅쾢ꎬ냼삨쮽죋탅쾢뫍릫릲탅쾢ꆣ죧맻튻룶죋ퟜ쫇뷓쫜떽맘폚쒳훖쫂볾랢짺뗄탅쾢ꎬ쓇쎴웤뛔폚헢튻쫂볾뗄뿕볤탄샭뻠샫튲뻍믡쯵뛌ꆣ쯻믡뻵뗃헢킩쫂샫쯻쯆뫵쫇뫜뷼뗄ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ뿕볤탄샭뻠s믡쫜떽탅쾢솿뗄펰쿬ꆣ뮻뻤뮰살쮵ꎬ죧맻I→0ꎬ벴쒳룶죋뛔쒳볾쫂쟩뗄랢짺룹놾늻횪쟩ꎬ퓲s(I)→∞ꎬ쯻튲뻍룐뻵떽헢볾쫂쟩쫇샫쯻뫜튣풶뗄ꆣ쿠랴ꎬ죧맻쯻뛔튻볾쫂쟩쯹헆컕뗄탅쾢풽뛠풽폐킧ꎬ퓲s튲뻍믡풽뇆뷼헦쪵뗄뿕볤뻠샫ꆣ헢훖탅쾢뗄뷒슶뛔폚룶죋탄샭뻠샫뗄펰쿬컒쏇튲뿉틔듓Shiller뗄폐맘컄쿗훐헒떽샽횤ꆣ bꎮ쪱볤탄샭뻠샫뛔헛쿖싊뗄펰쿬 튻냣살쮵ꎬ뒫춳헛쿖몯쫽뗄헛쿖뻠샫쫇틔쪱볤t살뇭쪾뗄ꆣ뛔폚좷뚨뗄쫂볾ꎬ컒쏇폐헛쿖몯쫽캪ꎺ 1R(t)=ꎬ웤훐r캪컞럧쿕샻싊ꎬ뛸t캪쪱볤뻠샫ꆣ ft(1+r)f떫쫇뛔폚늻좷뚨뗄쫂볾ꎬ죋쏇돽쇋늻쓜좷뚨쫂볾랢짺뗄ퟮ훕ힴ첬ꎬ뮹췹췹늻쓜좷뚨쫂볾랢짺뗄쪱볤ꆣ뛔폚잰쏦뗄튻훖쟩뿶ꎬ뒫춳뗄뺭볃톧샭싛틔벰뷰죚샭싛튻냣닉폃럧쿕믘놨싊살뷸탐헛쿖ꎬ듓뛸뾼싇웤럧쿕틲쯘쿂뗄헛쿖쟩뿶ꎬ튲벴폐ꎺ 1 R(t )=ꎬ웤훐r쫇럧쿕샻싊ꎬ럧쿕샻싊뿉틔폃뒫춳뷰죚톧샭싛훐룷훖샭t (1+r)싛폫쒣탍ꎨ죧CAPMꎬAPT뗈ꎩ뷸탐맀볆ꆣ퓚헢샯컒쏇늻볓틔쿪쾸뗄쳖싛ꆣ컒쏇훷튪벯훐폚뛔뗚뛾훖늻좷뚨뗄쟩뿶뗄럖컶짏ꎬ튲벴쫂볾퓚뫎쪱랢짺늢늻쓜좷뚨ꆣ헢쪱컒쏇튲뻍튪뾼달룶죋뛔쫂볾뿉쓜퓚쪲쎴쪱볤랢짺뗄탄샭랴펦쇋ꆣ 퓚놾컄훐ꎬ컒쏇볙뚨죋쏇쫇ꆰ뛌쫓ꆱ뗄ꎬ튲벴죋쏇믡맽럖뗄훘쫓퇛잰뗄쟩뿶ꎬ뛸뫶쫓뎤풶뗄쟩뿶ꆣ퓚헢퇹뗄볙뚨쿂ꎬ컒쏇믡뗃떽죧쿂뗄튻킩탄샭탐캪ꆣ죧맻룶죋룐뻵떽쒳볾쫂쟩뫜뿬뻍믡랢짺ꎬ쓇쎴춨뎣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ죋쏇퓚탄샭룐뻵짏헢볾쫂쟩쫇샫ퟔ벺뫜뷼뗄ꆣ튻룶뫜죝틗샭뷢뗄샽ퟓ쫇ꎬ튻룶죋죧맻놻튽짺룦횪뗃쇋뻸횢ꎬ믮ퟅ뗄쪱볤늻믡뎬맽튻룶퓂ꎬ쓇쎴뛔폚쯻살쮵ꎬ뺡맜늻횪뗀쯀췶뫎쪱붵쇙ꎬ떫좴쯆뫵쎿튻쳬뚼퓚쯀췶쿟짏튻퇹ꆣ퓚헢훖탄샭쿖쿳쿂ꎬ컒쏇폐떱쫂볾랢짺뗄뻟쳥쪱볤늻좷뚨떫 좴뿉틔좷탅웤뫜뷼쪱ꎬ벴t뇈뷏킡ꎬ퓲쪱볤탄샭뻠샫d<tꎬ웤훐t쫇쫂볾쪵볊랢짺 뗄쪱볤뻠샫ꎬ틲뛸탄샭헛쿖R(d)<R(t)ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ벴쪹쫇퓚랢짺쪱볤좷뚨뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ죋쏇뛔폚벴붫튪랢짺뗄뷡맻늻좷뚨쫂볾웤쪱볤탄샭뻠샫튲췹췹믡뇈쪵볊뗄쪱볤살뗃튪뛌ꆣ톧짺퓚펦뢶뾼쫔쪱뗄탄샭ힴ첬뻍쫇튻룶뫜뫃뗄쮵쏷ꆣ 19
떫쫇ꎬ랴맽살ꎬ죋쏇뛔폚캴살튪랢짺뗄쫂볾좴ퟜ쫇폐튻훖럇뎣튣풶뗄룐뻵ꆣ튲벴쫇쮵ꎬ죧맻죋쏇죏캪튻볾쫂쟩튪퓚뫜뻃뗄붫살닅뿉쓜랢짺ꎬ쓇쎴뛔폚쯻살쮵ꎬ췹췹뻍뫃쿱헢볾쫂쟩벸뫵폀풶튲늻믡랢짺튻퇹ꆣ벴쪹룶죋쏷좷횪뗀쒳훖늻좷뚨뗄쫂볾믡퓚50쓪틔뫳랢짺ꎬ떫퓚웤탄샭룐뻵짏ꎬ헢볾쫂뗄랢짺튲믡뇈쪵볊튪튣풶뗃뛠ꆣ 헢킩탄샭뻠샫뗄랴펳뿉틔폃튻뻤춨쯗뗄뮰살쮵ꎬ쓇뻍쫇ꆰ훘쫓퇛잰ꎬ뫶쫓붫살ꆱꆣ퓚헢퇹뗄볙짨쳵볾쿂ꎬ컒쏇믡폐쿂쏦뗄춼탎ꎺ d d 045 t 춼3 R(t)/R(d) 1R(d) R(t) 05101520춼4 평폚컒쏇뾼달뗄쫇탄샭뻠샫ꎬ틲뛸d튲뇘좻믡쫜떽탅쾢솿뗄펰쿬ꆣ뮻뻤뮰살쮵ꎬ죧맻I→0ꎬ벴쒳룶죋뛔쒳볾쫂쟩뗄랢짺룹놾늻횪쟩ꎬ퓲d(I)→∞ꎬ쯻튲뻍룐뻵떽헢볾쫂쟩쫇샫쯻뫜튣풶뗄ꆣ쿠랴ꎬ죧맻쯻뛔튻볾쫂쟩쯹헆컕뗄탅쾢풽뛠풽폐킧ꎬ퓲d튲뻍믡풽뇆뷼헦쪵뗄쪱볤뻠샫tꆣ뮻뻤뮰살쮵ꎬ탅쾢뗄돥믷ꎬ믡틽웰쪱볤탄샭뻠샫퓚t뗄ퟳ폒뷸탐늨뚯ꆣ 20
4ꎮ탅쾢뒫능쒣탍 평폚죋뗄탄샭랴펦쫜떽탅쾢뗄럇뎣듳뗄펰쿬ꎬ틲뛸캪쇋뾼달죋쏇뗄헻쳥탄샭탐캪쳘헷ꎬ컒쏇뮹뇘탫튪뾼달탅쾢뒫뗝뗄랽쪽ꆪꆪ쳘뇰쫇쮽죋탅쾢뗄뒫뗝랽쪽ꆣ 퓚벸뫵췪좫쎻폐펡쮢욷ꆢ뗧ퟓ폊볾ꆢ뮥솪췸믲웤쯻쿖듺붻쇷랽쪽뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ죋샠냑훘튪쫂쪵폐킧뗘듓튻룶죋뒫뗝룸쇭튻룶죋뗄춾뺶뻍쫇뿚춷붻첸틔벰쫩탅ꆣ뛸퓚뷱쳬ꎬ컞싛쓣ퟟ떽쓄ꎬ횻튪폐솽룶믲룼뛠뗄죋듴퓚튻웰ꎬ뛸쯻쏇폖쎻폐퓚룉믮믲쮯뻵ꎬ쓇쯻쏇튻뚨믡쫇퓚쇄쳬ꆣ뿚춷뫍쫩탅ꎨ쿖퓚튲탭쫇뗧ퟓ폊볾ꎩ퓚뷱쳬죔좻냧퇝ퟅ탅쾢뒫능뗄훘튪뷇즫ꆣ 퓚막욱뗄싲뷸싴돶훐ꎬ뿚춷뒫능ꎨ훷튪춨맽뗧뮰ꎩ룼쫇웰ퟅ뻙ퟣ쟡훘뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ9Shiller퓚1986쓪튻쿮퇐뺿훐럖컶죋쏇뗄힢틢솦튻뾪쪼쫇죧뫎쿲쒳튻막욱뗄ꆣ뛔폚컊쳢ꆰ쓣춨맽쪲쎴랽쪽힢틢떽헢볒릫쮾ꎿꆱꎬ횻폐6%뗄죋좷쟐뗘믘듰쫇춨맽웚뾯ꆢ놨횽믲췸싧뗈릫릲탅쾢ꎬ뛸뻸듳늿럖죋뗄믘듰뚼쫇춨맽죋폫죋횮볤뗄횱뷓붻쇷ꆣ벴쪹죋쏇뛁쇋탭뛠쇏ꎬퟮ쓜틽웰힢틢솦뫍듌벤쯻쏇닉좡탐뚯뗄뮹쫇죋폫죋횮볤뗄붻쇷ꆣ늢쟒ꎬShiller뗄퇐뺿뮹뇭쏷ꎬ뺡맜횱뷓뗄뿚춷붻쇷ꎨ믲뗧ퟓ폊볾ꎩ퓚좫맺랶캧쓚뗄뒫능늻죧쫐뎡뇤뮯쓇쎴뿬ꎬ떫쯼쯆뫵뛔듙돉쎿쳬믲쎿룶킡쪱뗄막쫐늨뚯웰ퟅ훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ헢쫇틲캪ꎬ뿚춷붻쇷뗄랽쪽뺭맽쇋벸냙췲쓪뗄뷸뮯랢햹ꎬ틑퓚컒쏇뗄춷쓔훐닺짺쇋룹짮뗙만뗄펰쿬ꆣ쳽뗃떽뛔랽뗄폯웸폯뗷ꎬ룐횪뗃떽웤쟩룐ꎬ뛸쟒춨뎣뮹뒦폚튻훖쿠펦뗄탅죎맘쾵ꆢ훒돏폫뫏ퟷ뗄럕캧쓚ꎬ헢킩틲쯘뚼쫇쮽죋횱뷓붻쇷쯹뛀폐뗄랽쏦ꆣ뗧뮰뗄떮짺틔벰뷱쳬뗄뗧ퟓ폊볾뗄맣랺펦폃뷸튻늽볓잿쇋죋폫죋횮볤뗄쮽죋횱뷓붻쇷뗄뗘캻ꆣ 폃쪲쎴살쏨쫶헢훖쮽죋탅쾢뗄붻쇷폫뒫능쓘ꎿ컒쏇퓚헢샯뿉틔뷨훺폚쇷탐늡쒣탍ꆣ쇷탐늡톧볒샻폃벲늡뒫능뗄쫽톧샭싛살풤닢뒫좾맽돌뫍쯀췶싊뗈ꆣ헢킩쒣탍튲뿉틔뫜뫃뗄폃폚샭뷢탅쾢뗄뒫능뫍랴삡믺훆뗄놾훊ꆣ 10퓚ퟮ볲떥뗄쇷탐늡쒣탍훐ꎬ벲늡놻죏뚨폐튻룶볙뚨뗄뒫좾싊ꎨ벴룐좾죋좺틔헢튻뇈싊냑벲늡뒫능룸캴쫜룐좾뗄죋좺ꎩ뫍튻룶볙뚨뗄췋돶싊ꎨ벴룐좾죋좺틔헢룶뇈싊뇤캪늻퓙뒦폚뮼늡ힴ첬ꎬ컞싛쯻쏇뗄쟩뿶쫇좬폺뮹쫇쯀췶ꎩꆣ컒쏇붫닉폃헢튻쒣탍살쏨쫶탅쾢뗄뒫뗝ꆣ퓚쮽죋뗄탅쾢뒫뗝훐ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔죏캪췋돶싊캪쇣ꎨ헢쫇틲캪튻냣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ죧맻튻룶죋틑믱횪쒳훖탅쾢ꎬ퓲뿉틔볙짨쯻쎻폐냬램듓헢훖틑횪ힴ첬훐ꆰ좬폺ꆱꎩꆣ쓇쎴ꎬ룹뻝쇷탐늡쒣탍ꎬ뿉폐ꎺ 9 Robert J. Shiller, Irrational exuberance, Princeton, NJ : Princeton University Press, c2000 10 Bailey, Norman T. The Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. London: C. Griffin. 1957. 21
dG=Gr(1−G)ꎻ dt웤훐G캪틑뺭믱횪탅쾢죋좺뗄뇈샽ꎬ뛸ꎨ1-Gꎩ퓲뇭쪾짐캴뗃횪헢튻탅쾢뗄죋뗄뇈샽ꆣr뇭쪾떥캻쪱볤뗄탅쾢뒫능쯙뛈ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ틑뺭믱횪탅쾢뗄죋좺뇈샽튻뾪쪼쫇틔뒫능쯙뛈짏짽뗄ꎬ웤퓶뎤싊퓚뾪쪼쪱뇈뷏욽뮺ꎬ떫믱횪탅쾢뗄죋좺뗄뻸뛔쫽ퟖ쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄랢햹풽뎤풽뿬ꎺ떱풽살풽뛠뗄죋뗃횪헢튻탅쾢쪱ꎬ풽살풽뛠뗄죋놻ꆰ룐좾ꆱꆣ떫쯦ퟅ쎻폐믱횪탅쾢뗄죋좺쫽솿쿂붵쪱ꎬ탅쾢뒫능쯹짦벰뗄죋쫽퓶뎤싊튲믡붵뗍ꆣ뺡맜탅쾢뒫능뗄쯙뛈쎻폐랢짺룄뇤ꎬ떫뿉틔놻ꆰ룐좾ꆱ뗄죋좴복짙쇋ꆣ죧맻쯹폐쿠맘뗄죋뚼틑뺭믱횪쇋헢튻탅쾢ꎬ쓇쎴뇈싊돉캪100%ꆣ튲뻍늻믡폐탂쫜ꆰ룐좾ꆱ뗄죋돶쿖쇋ꆣ 뛔짏쏦뗄릫쪽쟳믽럖(볙뚨돵쪼뗄뗃횪헢튻탅쾢뗄죋뗄뇈샽캪G)ꎬ뿉틔뗃떽탅0쾢뒫능뗄볲떥쒣탍캪ꎺ 1G=ꎻ 1−G−rt0(1+e)G0웤춼탎죧쿂춼쯹쪾ꎺ G 1 0t춼5 쿠춬샠탍뗄탅쾢뒫능쒣탍뿉틔놻맣랺뗘펦폃폚횤좯쫐뗄퇐뺿훐ꆣ뺭볃톧볒Alan 11Kirman퓸폃심틏뗄탐캪쒣쪽살퇐뺿막욱쫐뎡뗄볛룱뇤뮯ꆣKirman힢틢떽ꎬ심틏뚼쫇룷ퟔ헷쒼웤믯냩좥쪳컯풴뗄ꆣ헻쳥짏ꎬ틏뎲늢쎻폐춳튻뗄횸믓ꆣ쯼쏇쫇춨맽뷓뒥뫍룺쯦ꎨ쮽죋탅쾢ꎩ믲헟쇴튻쳵뮯톧ퟙ벣ꎨ릫릲탅쾢ꎩ살췪돉헷쒼뗄ꆣ헢솽훖맽돌뇣쫇ꆰ심틏냦ꆱ탅쾢뒫뗝뗄맽돌ꆣKirman횤쏷쇋죧맻헷쒼쫇쯦틢뗄ꎬ쓇쎴헢훖쿖쿳 11 Alan Kirman, Ants, Rationality and Recruitment, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1993,v108, p137-156 22
뿉틔폃튻룶볲떥뗄쇷탐늡쒣탍살뷢쫍ꆣ뫜뛠짧믡톧볒틑냑쇷탐늡쒣탍폃폚막욱쫐뎡훐풤닢탅쾢뗄뿚춷뒫능맽돌ꎬ떫탨힢틢뗄쫇ꎬ평폚짧믡뿆톧쒣탍뗄믹놾닎쫽늻쿱퓚짺컯톧쒣탍훐쓇쎴만뚨뫍뺫좷ꎬ볲떥뗘붫쇷탐늡쒣탍쳗폃폚탅쾢뗄뒫능쫇듦퓚뫜듳좱쿝뗄ꆣ튻룶풭틲뻍쫇탅쾢횱뷓뒫능뗄뇤룼싊뗄컊쳢ꆣ 컒쏇횪뗀ꎬ퓚컒쏇뛹춯쪱듺췦뗄뒫뮰폎쾷훐ꎬ튻룶돵쪼뗄탅쾢놻뒫떽ퟮ뫳췹췹틑뺭쏦쒿좫럇ꎬ쇮죋엵뢹듳킦ꆣ뛸퓚횤좯쫐뎡뗄탅쾢뒫능훐ꎬ쎿룶믱횪탅쾢뗄죋뚼믡뫜ퟔ좻뗄뛔탅쾢볓틔ퟔ벺뗄럖컶헻샭ꎬ듓뛸볓뷸쇋ퟔ벺뗄샭뷢뫍에뛏ꎬ좻뫳퓙뒫뗝룸훜캧뗄죋ꆣ뛸퓚헢튻맽돌훐ꎬ죋뗄룷훖탄샭펰쿬뇣퓚탅쾢뗄뒫뗝훐뗃떽뷸튻늽뗄볓잿ꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ죋ퟜ쫇죝틗힢틢떽탅쾢훐ꆰ훘튪ꆱ뗄쓚죝ꎬ늢믡퓚웤쓔몣훐뗃떽잿뮯ꆣ튻룶횪쟩헟퓚믱횪쒳짏쫐릫쮾룟닣쇬떼짭쳥늻뫃뗄탅쾢뫳뗃떽뗄에뛏뿉쓜쫇룃릫쮾뗄뻶닟맜샭붫믡쫜떽튻뚨뗄펰쿬ꆣ뛸뫳쏦헢튻뢺쏦틢틥늢늻쫇뫜잿뗄탅쾢퓚뒫뗝룸쿂튻룶탅쾢뷓쫜헟쪱ꎬ뇣뗃떽쇋뷸튻늽뗄볓잿ꆣ틔훁폚떽뫳살ꎬ죧맻쎻폐릫릲탅쾢뗄돎쟥ꎬ뿉쓜죋쏇뗃떽뗄탅쾢뻍뇤돉쇋릫쮾뗄뻶닟붫돶쿖퇏훘컊쳢ꎬ뺭펪튵벨믡쿂붵ꎬ듓뛸틽웰쇋릫쮾막볛뗄쿂뗸ꆣ뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ쮽죋탅쾢뒫능뗄헢훖쳘탔웤쪵쫇퓬돉맽뛈랴펦뗄튻룶뫜훘튪뗄풭틲ꆣ 떫뺡맜죋볊볤붻쇷뻟폐럇뺫좷탔뫍틗뇤뚯탔ꎬ쇷탐늡쒣탍죔좻폐훺폚컒쏇샭뷢쫐뎡볛룱뇤뚯뗄틲쯘ꆣ 죽ꆢ쒣탍뗄췆떼 1ꎮ쿖폐샭싛믘맋 ꎨ1ꎩ웚췻킧폃몯쫽샭싛 쯹캽죋쏇욫뫃맘쾵뗄웚췻킧폃몯쫽뇭쪾쫇횸듦퓚쪵몯쫽u:R→R뫍룅싊뿕볤Ω짏뗄룅싊닢뛈pꎬ쪹뗃u(x)dp(ω)≥u(x')dp(ω)ꎬ떱쟒뷶떱 x≥ x'ꆣ ωω∫∫ΩΩ폃샫즢뗄탎쪽뇭쪾ꎬ튲벴쫇 u(x)ip(ω)≥u(x')ip(ω)ꎬ떱쟒뷶떱x≥ x'ꆣ ∑ω∑ωω짏쏦헢튻맘쾵쪽뇭쏷ꎬ죧맻뛔폚늻좷뚨쫂볾 x뫍x'ꎬ죧맻 x뗄웚췻킧폃횵룟폚 x'뗄웚췻킧폃횵ꎬ컒쏇뻍쮵 x쫇튪폅폚 x'뗄ꆣ쿔좻ꎬ퓚좷뚨쟩탎쿂뗄킧폃몯쫽뇭쪾 23
쫇웚췻킧폃몯쫽뇭쪾뗄쳘샽ꆣ헢쫇평폚퓚좷뚨쟩탎쿂ꎬ횻폐튻훖뿉쓜뗄ힴ첬ωꎬ쟒p(ω)=1ꎬ틲뛸폐ꎺ u(x)≥u(x')ꎬ떱쟒뷶떱x≥x'ꆣ 튻냣살쮵ꎬ뛔폚웚췻킧폃샭싛ꎬ룹뻝뛔룅싊닢뛈P뗄늻춬뚨틥ꎬ뒫춳짏폐솽훖랽쪽뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ튻훖쫇Savage(1972)쳡돶뗄훷맛룅싊뗄랽램ꎬ쯻죏캪뛔ힴ첬룅싊뗄맀볆쫇춶헟욫뫃뗄ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ틲뛸ힴ첬룅싊틲죋뛸틬ꎬ쫇튻훖훷맛뗄뾴램뫍탅쓮ꆣ뛸쇭튻훖쫇Von Neumann뫍Morgenstern(1953)쳡돶뗄뿍맛룅싊ꎬ쯻쏇죏캪ힴ첬룅싊쫇틑횪뗄ꎬ쫇뿍맛듦퓚뗄ꆣ틲뛸쯹폐뗄춶헟뗄뾴램쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ평폚쒣탍뒦샭짏뗄뿉탐뫍랽뇣ꎬ튻냣뗄웚췻몯쫽샭싛닉폃뗄뚼쫇뿍맛룅싊ꆣ떫떱컒쏇튪뾼싇죋뗄탄샭틲쯘뛔뺭볃탐캪뗄펰쿬쪱ꎬ컒쏇뻍튪돐죏죋폫죋횮볤뛔쫂볾랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔뗄첬뛈닮틬ꎬ뺡맜퓚뫜뛠쟩뿶쿂죋쏇뗄뾴램뿉쓜쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ 퓚횤좯쫐뎡훐ꎬ죴춶헟뗄욫맘쾵뿉틔폃웚췻킧폃몯쫽뇭쪾ꎬ퓲횤좯ퟩ뫏 x뗄웚췻킧폃횵캪ꎺ ∞E[u (x)] u(z)dF(z)ꆣ x ∫−∞뾼싇떽헛쿖뗄틲ퟓꎬ퓲웚췻킧폃횵뇤캪ꎺ ∞E[u (x)] D(r,t)u(z)dF(z)ꎻ x ∫−∞웤훐r캪헛쿖싊ꎬt캪헛쿖뗄쪱볤뎤뛈ꎬ x캪쒳튻폐볛횤좯ꎬz캪폐볛횤좯퓚캴살뗄볛횵ꆣ 12ꎨ2ꎩ맀닢샭싛ꎨProspect Theoryꎩ 헽죧잰쏦쯹쳖싛맽뗄쓇퇹ꎬ평폚뫜뛠쪵횤뗄럖컶뷡뇭쏷ꎬ웚췻킧폃샭싛늢늻쫇튻룶쏨쫶죋쏇뺭볃탐캪뗄샭쿫쒣탍ꆣKahneman뫍Tverskyꎨ1979ꎩ쳡돶쇋쇭튻룶쒣탍살횤쏷죋쏇퓚럧쿕ힴ첬쿂뷸탐뺭볃뻶닟뗄탐캪톡퓱ꆣ떫퓚쯻쏇뗄쒣탍훐ꎬ죔좻퇘폃쇋웚췻킧폃샭싛뗄튻킩쓚죝ꎬ죧틔믵뇒뫢솿뗄닺돶틔벰뿍맛룅싊뗈ꆣ맀닢쒣탍냑죋뗄뻶닟맽돌럖캪솽룶뷗뛎ꎺ탅쾢럖컶뷗뛎틔벰볛횵움맀뷗뛎ꆣ퓚탅쾢럖컶뷗뛎ꎬ죋쏇훷튪쫇뛔튪뷸탐맀닢뗄쫂볾뷸탐튻룶볲떥뗄럖컶ꎬ튲벴폃룼볓볲떥쏷쇋뗄랽쪽 12 Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Prosect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk”, Econometrica, 1979(47): 263~290 24
살훘쿖놻맀닢뗄쫂볾ꆣ뛸퓚뗚뛾룶뷗뛎ꎬ죋쏇믡뛔놻맀닢뗄쫂볾뷸탐움볛ꎬ늢톡퓱볛횵ퟮ룟뗄탐캪뻶닟ꆣ 탅쾢럖컶뷗뛎뗄훷튪쒿뇪쫇캪쿂튻늽뗄맀볛듲쿂믹뒡ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ퓚헢튻뷗뛎훷튪뗄릤ퟷ쫇뗃떽룷훖늻춬뗄ힴ첬틔벰웤쿠펦뗄닺돶뫍뿍맛룅싊ꎬ헢튻뷗뛎뗄쓚죝냼삨뛔탅쾢뗄뇠틫ꎬ훘탂뷸탐ퟩ뫏뫍럖룮틔벰뛔맀닢쫂볾뗄뷸튻늽볲뮯ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ쫐뎡짏뫜뛠쯹캽뗄틬뎣쿖쿳뻍닺짺폚헢튻뷗뛎ꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ춬튻놻맀닢쫂볾퓚늻춬뗄놳뺰쿂믡폐늻춬뗄샭뷢ꆣ 퓚뷸탐탅쾢뗄럖컶뒦샭횮뫳ꎬ뻶닟헟뻍뿉틔뛔놻뒦샭맽뗄맀닢쫂볾뷸탐맀볛쇋ꆣ뛔놻맀닢쫂볾뗄ퟜ쳥뗄움볛ꎬ폃V살뇭쪾ꎬ쯼폃솽룶뇤솿π뫍v살뫢솿ꆣ 뗚튻룶뇤솿π뇭쪾뗄쫇폫쎿튻ힴ첬뗄뿍맛룅싊p쿠펦뗄탄샭좨훘ꎬ랴펳쇋뿍맛룅싊뛔폚놻맀닢쫂볾ퟜ쳥볛횵뗄펰쿬ꆣ좻뛸튪힢틢뗄쫇ꎬπ늢늻쫇튻룶룅싊닢뛈ꆣKahneman뫍Tversky뷸튻늽횤쏷ꎬπ(p)+π(1−p)<1ꆣ 뗚뛾룶뇤솿v쫇폫닺돶횵쿠펦뗄몯쫽횵v(x)ꎬ랴펳쇋죋쏇뛔쒳튻닺돶뗄훷맛움볛ꆣ퓚헢튻샭싛훐ꎬ닺돶쫇틔쫕틦믲쯰쪧살뫢솿뗄ꎬ뛸늢럇폃웤ퟮ뫳뗄ퟜ뗄볛횵살뫢솿ꆣ 뾼싇ퟮ볲떥뗄맀닢쫂볾ꎬ웤탎쪽캪ꎨx,p;y,qꎩꎬ헢튻맀닢쫂볾훁뛠횻폐솽훖럇쇣뗄닺돶횵ꆣ퓚헢튻맀닢쫂볾훐ꎬ죋쏇뿉틔틔P뗄룅싊뗃떽xꎬ뛸틔q뗄룅싊뗃떽y ,늢틔(1-p-q)뗄룅싊쪲쎴튲뗃늻떽ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬp+q≤1ꆣ 죧맻x≥0≥y믲헟x≤0≤yꎬ퓲돆헢튻맀닢쫂볾캪튻냣탔맀닢ꎬ퓲폐ꎺ V(x,p;y,q)=π(p)v(x)+π(q)v(y) 웤훐v(0)=0ꎬπ(0)=0ꎬ늢쟒π(1)=1ꆣ뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ웤탎쪽폫웚췻킧폃쫇럇뎣뗄쿠쿱뗄ꆣ퓚좷뚨탔쟩뿶쿂ꎬ폐V(x,1)=V(x)=v(x)ꆣ맀닢샭싛뗄헢튻릫쪽춨맽뛔웚췻풼쫸뗄럅쯉뛔웚췻킧폃샭싛뷸탐쇋탞헽ꆣ 뛸뛔폚퇏룱헽믲퇏룱뢺뗄맀닢쫂볾ꎬ퓲퓚탅쾢럖컶뷗뛎믡냑헢맀닢쫂볾럖뷢돉솽룶늿럖ꎺꎨ1ꎩ컞럧쿕늿럖틔벰ꎨ2ꎩ럧쿕늿럖ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ죧맻p+q=1ꎬ쟒x>y>0믲x<y<0ꎬ퓲V(x,p;y,q)=v(y)+π(p)[v(x)−v(y)]ꆣ듓뛸뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ퇏룱헽믲퇏룱뢺뗄맀닢쫂볾뗄맀볛뗈폚컞럧쿕늿럖뗄볛횵볓짏솽룶럇쇣닺돶뗄맀횵횮닮ꎬ뇈죧ꎺ 25
V(400,;100,)=v(100)+π()[v(400)−v(100)]ꆣ 볛횵몯쫽v(y)뗄쫴탔ꎺ헽죧잰쏦쯹럖컶뗄튻퇹ꎬ뛔폚헽뗄닺돶ꎨ믲쫕틦ꎩꎬ웤볛횵몯쫽쫇낼뗄ꎻ떫뛔폚뢺뗄닺돶ꎨ믲쯰쪧ꎩꎬ웤볛횵몯쫽퓲쫇춹뗄ꎬ늢쟒쯰쪧늿럖뗄킧폃몯쫽쟺쿟튪뇈쫕틦늿럖뗄킧폃몯쫽살뗃튪뚸ꆣ 좨훘몯쫽π(p)뗄쫴탔ꎺπ(p)뗄쫴탔컒쏇튲틑뺭퓚잰쏦볓틔튻뚨뗄쳖싛ꆣ퓚샭탔웚췻뗄풼쫸쳵볾쿂ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽π(p)=pꎬ튲벴죋쏇뿉틔쪵볊움맀늢샭탔뗄랴펳쫂볾랢짺뗄뿍맛룅싊ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ헢튻풼쫸늢늻쫇ퟜ쓜릻돉솢뗄ꎬ헢샯뗄좨훘몯쫽뫢솿뗄쫇맀닢쫂볾랢짺뗄탄샭움맀ꎬ뛸늢늻뷶뷶쫇맀닢쫂볾랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔뗄듳킡ꎬ쯼믡쫜떽탭뛠웤쯼틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ튻냣뗘ꎬ ꎨiꎩπ(p)쫇뿍맛룅싊p뗄뗝퓶몯쫽ꎬ쟒π'(p)>0,π(0)=0,π(1)=1ꎻ ꎨiiꎩ뛔폚럇뎣킡뗄뿍맛룅싊ꎬ죋쏇쯹뢳폨뗄좨훘쫇맽룟뗄ꎬ튲벴π(p)>pꎬ죴p뫜킡ꎻ ꎨiiiꎩ뛔죎틢뗄pꎬπ(p)+π(1−p)<1ꎻ ꎨivꎩ뛔폚벫뛋킡뗄pꎬ벴p→0,π(p)=0ꎬ뛔폚벫뛋듳뗄pꎬ벴p→1,π(p)=1ꆣ 2ꎮ탄샭풤웚뗄탞헽쒣탍 캪쇋냑컒쏇잰쏦쯹쳖싛맽뗄룷훖탄샭틲쯘쾵춳뗘쓉죫죋쏇뗄탄샭풤웚훐ꎬ뻍폐뇘튪뛔뒫춳뗄웚췻닺폃샭싛틔벰Kahneman & Tversky쳡돶뗄맀닢샭싛뷸탐탞헽ꆣ헢튲헽쫇놾컄쯹튪뷸탐뗄ퟮ훷튪뗄릤ퟷ뫍ퟮ훘튪뗄릱쿗ꆣ 쫗쿈살뾼싇볛횵몯쫽ꆣ퓚헢샯ꎬ컒쏇닉폃쇋맀닢샭싛훐뗄볛횵몯쫽탎쪽ꆣ춬퇹폃믵뇒볛횵살뫢솿룷훖닺돶ꆣ떫헢샯볛횵몯쫽늢늻쫇믵뇒볛횵캨튻뇤솿뗄몯쫽ꎬ웤펰쿬틲쯘뮹냼삨웤쯻뗄짧믡뮷뺳틲쯘ꆢ샺쪷컄뮯틲쯘뗈뗈ꎬ뺡맜캪쇋쳖싛뗄랽뇣ꎬ컒쏇죔좻닉폃쇋v(x)뗄탎쪽ꎬ늢쟒ꎬ헢샯뗄x뇭쪾뗄쫇쫕틦믲헟쯰쪧ꎬ뛸늻쫇ퟮ훕뗄좫늿쯹뗃ꎨ헢뗣폫맀닢샭싛쫇튻훂뗄ꎩꆣ 26
웤듎ꎬ컒쏇살뾴튻쿂뛔룅싊뗄움볛ꎬ튲벴맀닢쫂볾뗄탄샭좨훘컊쳢ꆣ죧잰쏦뗄럖컶ꎬ컒쏇닉폃쇋맀닢샭싛훐탄샭좨훘뗄믹놾탎쪽π(p)ꆣ떫퓚헢샯ꎬ컒쏇뗄p닉폃뗄쫇훷맛룅싊ꎬ헢쫇틲캪듳뛠쫽쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뺡맜뿍맛룅싊쫇듦퓚뗄ꎬ떫좴늢늻튻뚨쫇뿉횪뗄ꆣ춬쪱죋쏇퓚뷸탐볛횵에뛏쪱ꎬ쯹틀뻝뗄룅싊튲쫇쯻ퟔ짭쯹좷뚨뗄뿉쓜탔뗄듳킡ꎬ틲뛸닉폃훷맛룅싊뗄랽쪽ꆣ 늢쟒ꎬ퓚헢샯ꎬ컒쏇뮹볙뚨훷맛룅싊뗄에뛏쫇폫룶죋쯹믱뗃뗄탅쾢폐맘뗄ꎬ룶죋룹뻝쯹믱뗃뗄탅쾢솿틔벰룶죋웤쯻샺쪷뗄ꆢ컄뮯뗄ꆢ짧믡뗄틲쯘뛔쒳튻맀닢쫂볾랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔뷸탐에뛏ꎬ벴p=p(I,I)ꎬ웤훐I쫇쮽죋탅쾢ꎬI쫇릫릲탅쾢ꆣ죧춬1212퓚짏튻뷚쯹쳖싛맽뗄ꎬI벴쮽죋탅쾢뛔뻶닟에뛏뗄펰쿬튪풶풶듳폚릫릲탅쾢Iꆣ룶12죋쟣쿲폚죏캪튻룶듓쫂뷰죚럖컶뗄엳폑쮽쿂듲뗧뮰룦쯟쯻뗄쒳튻룶막욱튪헇뗄뿉탅돌뛈뇈놨횽짏뷰죚럖컶쪦뗄췆볶튪룟ꎨ헢믲탭믡듦퓚랴샽ꎬ떫헽죧Shiller뗄럖컶쯹쳡돶뗄ꎬ퓚듳뛠쫽쟩뿶쿂쫇죧듋ꎩꆣ춬쪱ꎬ죧컒쏇쳖싛맽뗄튻퇹ꎬ훷맛룅싊뮹쫜떽뿕볤탄샭뻠샫ꎨ컒쏇퓚헢샯폃s살뇭쪾ꎩ뗄펰쿬ꎬ틲뛸폐p(s;I,I)ꆣ뿕볤탄샭ω12뻠샫풽뷼ꎬ죋쏇뗄훷맛룅싊움볛뻍풽룟ꆣ 퓙듎ꎬ폫Kahneman & Tversky뗄맀닢샭싛늻춬뗄쫇ꎬ컒쏇퓚헢샯뮹튪뾼싇탄샭헛쿖싊뗄펰쿬ꆣ죧컒쏇퓚잰쏦럖컶맽뗄튻퇹ꎬ죋쏇뛔캴살쫂볾뗄헛쿖췹췹폫뒫춳뗄헛쿖샭싛늢늻튻훂ꆣ쳘뇰쫇뛔늻좷뚨쫂볾뗄헛쿖짏ꎬ탄샭뗄틲쯘뻍룼볓훘튪쇋ꆣ헢쫇틲캪튻랽쏦죋쏇튲탭늢늻횪뗀룃쫂볾쪲쎴쪱뫲믡랢짺ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦죋쏇룼늻쟥돾쫂볾뗄랢짺웈뷼쪱ퟔ짭뗄쟩룐뚯틲믡쫇퓵퇹ꆣ듋췢ꎬ퓚늻춬뗄뮷뺳쿂ꎬ죋쏇뛔쒳튻쫂볾뗄ꆰ웳엎ꆱ돌뛈튲늻튻퇹ꆣꆰ뛌쫓ꆱ믲헟쮵맽럖훘쫓퇛잰뛸뫶쫓붫살ꎬퟔ맅훁뷱튻횱돉캪죋쏇뗄ퟔ뷫믲뷫죋뗄뷰폱솼퇔ꎬ떫듓쇭튻룶뷇뛈살뾴ꎬ튲쮵쏷쇋헢튻탄샭쳘헷뗄웕뇩듦퓚탔ꆣ 틲뛸ꎬ컒쏇뗄헛쿖몯쫽캪R(d)ꎬ웤훐d쫇쪱볤탄샭뻠샫ꎬ뛸쟒룹뻝잰쏦뗄쳖싛ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뗃횪R'(d)<0ꎬ튲벴쪱볤탄샭뻠샫풽풶ꎬ죋쏇뗄훘쫓돌뛈튲뻍풽뗍ꎬ쯹틔룸폨캴살늻좷뚨쫂볾뗄헛쿖횵튲뻍풽뗍ꆣ ퟮ뫳ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽ퟮ훕뗄탄샭풤웚쒣탍캪ꎺ P=V (x) =R(d)π(p(s;I,)v(x)dωωω12ω∫Ωxωω웤훐ꎬ쫇늻좷뚨쫂볾뗄룷훖늻춬뗄ힴ첬ꎬ쫇퓚쒳튻쳘뚨ힴ첬쿂뗄닺돶횵,s룶죋뛔폚쒳튻ힴ첬뗄뿕볤탄샭뻠샫ꆣ ω 27
볲떥뗄살쮵ꎬ볙뚨듽맀닢뗄쫂볾횻폐솽훖뿉쓜뗄ힴ첬ꎬ웤닺돶횵캪x뫍yꎬ웤훷맛뗄룅싊ꎨ퓚헢샯튲뿉틔죏캪쫇뿍맛룅싊ꎩ럖뇰쫇p뫍qꎬ퓲ꎺ V(x,p;y,q)=R(d)[π(p(s;I,I)⋅v(x)+π(q(s;I,I)⋅v(y)] p12q12헢뻍쫇컒쏇쯹뗃떽뗄볲떥뗄탄샭풤웚쒣탍ꎬ퓚헢튻쒣탍쿂ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽죋뗄훷맛탄샭틲쯘쫇죧뫎펰쿬떽웤볛횵에뛏뗄ꆣ 3ꎮ막쫐탄샭뚨볛쒣탍 폐쇋짏쏦뗄탄샭풤웚쒣탍ꎬ컒쏇뻍뿉틔룹뻝헢튻쒣탍췆떼컒쏇뗄막쫐탄샭뚨볛쒣탍ꆣ 듓뒫춳뗄샭탔풤웚쿂뗄웚췻킧폃몯쫽돶랢ꎬ컒쏇퓸뗃떽맽튻쾵쇐닺뚨볛틔벰쏨쫶막쫐늨뚯뗄쒣탍ꎬ죧CAPMꆢATPꆢB-S뗈뗈ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ듳솿뗄쪵횤뷡맻뇭쏷ꎬ헢킩쒣탍퓚쏨쫶막쫐뗄늨뚯쪱늢늻쫇뫜돉릦ꆣ쫐뎡짏돶쿖뗄듳솿뗄틬뎣쿖쿳튲컞램듓헢킩쒣탍훐뗃떽싺틢뗄뷢쫍ꆣ튲헽틲캪헢룶풭틲ꎬ튲뻍돶쿖쇋뫜뛠뎢쫔폃춶헟뗄탄샭틲쯘좥뷢쫍막쫐늨뚯뗄쒣탍ꎬ웤훐펰쿬뷏듳뗄폐춶헟맽뛈ퟔ탅뗄쒣탍ꎨoverconfidenceꎩ죧Kent DanielꎬDavid Hirshleifer뗈ꎬ틔벰횪쟩붻틗헟쒣탍ꎨinformed investorsꎩꎬ죧SternꎬShleifer뗈ꆣ 떫헢킩쒣탍뺡맜듓튻뚨돌뛈짏뾼싇쇋춶헟뗄탄샭틲쯘뫍쫐뎡뗄쒦닁ꎬ떫좴뚼쎻폐뫜뫃뗄듓춶헟탄샭웚췻돶랢ꎬ뛔웤막쫐늨뚯볓틔쳖싛ꎬ뛸쫇냑죋뗄쒳킩룶뇰뗄탄샭탐캪쳘헷ퟷ캪펰쿬막볛늨뚯뗄탅쾢돥믷뷸탐뾼싇ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ퓚놾컄훐ꎬ컒쏇붫듓컒쏇잰쏦쯹쏨쫶뗄탄샭틲쯘틔벰탄샭웚돶랢ꎬ살뾴튻뾴헢킩탄샭랽쏦뗄풭틲뺿뺹뛔막쫐닺짺쇋쪲쎴퇹뗄펰쿬ꆣ ꎨ1ꎩ떥룶춶헟뗄뚨볛쒣탍 퓚헢샯ꎬ컒쏇붫듓짏쏦쯹췆떼뗄탄샭풤웚킧폃몯쫽돶랢ꎬ쳖싛떥룶춶헟뗄닺뚨볛컊쳢ꆣ캪쇋볲떥웰볻ꎬ컒쏇닉폃볤뷓뚨볛램ꎬ냑탄샭풤웚뗄킧폃몯쫽죏캪쫇틔믵뇒뇭쪾뗄킧폃몯쫽ꎬ튲벴쫇죋쏇뛔쒳튻맀닢쫂볾뗄믵뇒움맀ꆣ틲뛸폐죋쏇뛔쒳튻맀닢쫂볾 x뗄돶볛캪ꎺ P=V (x)=R(d)π(p(I,)v(x)dω ω12ω∫Ω R(d)E =⋅[x|I,I]12 28
웤훐ꎬE[x |I,I]=π(p(I,I)v(x)dωꎬ뇭쪾죋쏇퓚쮽죋탅쾢I틔벰릫릲탅12ω12ω1∫Ω쾢I쿂뛔맀닢쫂볾 x뗄탄샭풤웚ꎨ틔믵뇒뗄탎쪽뇭쪾ꎩꎬ퓚헢샯ꎬ뿕볤탄샭뻠샫틾2몬폚훷맛룅싊훐뗄뇭듯쪽훐ꎬ늻퓙쏷좷볓틔뇭쪾ꆣ 헢퇹ꎬ컒쏇뻍뿉틔뛔헢튻뚨볛릫쪽볓틔햹뾪쳖싛ꆣ캪쇋볲떥웰볻ꎬ컒쏇뷸튻늽볙뚨맀닢쫂볾퓚캴살횻폐솽훖뿉쓜뗄ힴ첬x믲헟yꎨ퓚막쫐짏ꎬ뿉틔볲떥뗄죏캪쫇짽뮹쫇뗸ꎬ늻럁짨signv(x)>0ꎬsignv(y)<0ꎬ퓲짏쏦헢튻뚨볛릫쪽뇤캪ꎺ P=R(d)⋅E [x|I,I]12 =R(d)⋅[π(p)⋅v(x)+π(q)⋅v(y)]뾼싇떽죋쏇쯹뷓쫜뗄탅쾢폐쮽죋탅쾢뫍릫릲탅쾢ꎬ뛸죋쏇퓚ퟶ돶에뛏뻶닟쪱ꎬ췹췹폅쿈뾼싇쮽죋탅쾢ꎬ틲뛸ꎬ떱릫훚횻뷓쫜떽쮽죋탅쾢쪱ꎬ웤뚨볛캪ꎺ P=R (d)⋅E[x|I]11 =R(d)⋅[π(p(I)⋅v(x)+π(q(I)⋅v(y)]1컒쏇룹뻝잰쏦뛔탄샭틲쯘뗄쳖싛ꎬ볙뚨죋쏇룹뻝쮽죋뗄탅쾢ퟶ돶ퟔ벺뗄에뛏쪱ꎬ쫇맽뛈ퟔ탅뗄ꆣ늻럁볙짨헢쪱뗄쮽죋탅쾢쫇튻룶샻뫃뗄탅쾢ꎬ벴sign(I)>0ꆣ1춬쪱ꎬ죧맻 x퓚캴살캪x뗄뿍맛룅싊캪p'ꎬ퓚캴살캪y뗄뿍맛룅싊캪q'ꎬ퓲폐퓚맽뛈ퟔ탅뗄쟩탎쿂ꎺ π(p(I)>p'ꎻπ(q(I))<q'ꆣ 11튲벴릫훚믡뷏캪샖맛뗄죏뚨맀닢쫂볾붫쿲ퟅ쯻쏇쯹뾴뫃뗄랽쿲랢햹ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ P=R(d)⋅E [x|I]11=R(d)⋅[π(p(I)⋅v(x)+π(q(I)⋅v(y)]1 >R(d)⋅[p'⋅v(x)+q'⋅v(y)]=pA웤훐P캪ꆰ뫏샭볛캻ꆱꎨ죧춼훐뗄쮮욽탩쿟쯹쪾ꎩꆣ A튲벴퓚춬퇹뗄탄샭헛쿖싊쿂ꎬ평폚쮽죋탅쾢뗄뒫뗝뛸듸살뗄탅탄맽뛈뗄탄샭탐캪붫믡틽웰릫훚뛔맀닢쫂볾뗄맽뛈랴펦ꆣ쳘뇰뗘ꎬ죧맻v(x)뗄횵뫜듳ꎬ뛸웤돶쿖뗄뿍맛룅싊뫜킡ꎬ벴p→0ꎬx>MꎨM쫇튻룶뛔릫훚살쮵뫜듳뗄쫽ꎩꎬ퓲평잰쏦컒쏇쯹쳖싛뗄릫훚뛔킡룅싊쫂볾뗄탄샭랴펦ꎬ뿉틔횪뗀ꎬ π(p(I) p' 1틲뛸폐ꎺ 29
P=R(d)⋅[π(p(I)⋅v(x)+π(q(I)⋅v(y)]111 R(d)⋅[p'⋅v(x)+q'⋅v(y)] =pA튲벴헢쪱맽뛈랴펦뗄쿖쿳붫룼볓쏷쿔ꎬ헢튲뻍뷢쫍쇋욽쯘늢늻쾲뮶쎰쿕뗄죋캪쪲쎴튲믡돶볛5풪릺싲튻헅룅싊캪잧럖횮튻뗄훐붱뷰뛮캪5000풪뗄붱좯ꆣ 좻뛸ꎬ컒쏇늢늻쫇뷶뷶틀뾿쮽죋탅쾢I살뷸탐에뛏뻶닟뗄ꆣ퓚죕뎣짺믮훐ꎬ컒1쏇쎿쳬뚼믡뷓쫜떽룷훖룷퇹뗄릫릲탅쾢Iꆣ뛔폚맀닢쫂볾뗄릫릲탅쾢폐쪱믡폫컒쏇2쯹헆컕뗄쮽죋탅쾢쿠튻훂ꎬ떫폐쪱좴튲믡폫쮽죋탅쾢쿠쎬뛜ꎬ헢뻍믡뛔릫훚뗄탄샭탐캪닺짺늻춬뗄펰쿬ꆣ 탄샭톧볒쪵퇩틑뺭횤쏷ꎬ죋쏇웕뇩뗘뻟폐ퟔ컒뿏뚨ꎨself-attributionꎩ뗄쟣쿲ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ튻떩죋쏇ퟶ돶쇋ퟔ벺뗄에뛏ꎬ튪룄뇤웤풭쿈뗄에뛏쫇뷏캪삧쓑뗄ꆣ듓헢튻탄샭틲쯘돶랢ꎬ죧맻릫훚쯹믱횪뗄릫릲탅쾢폫웤풭살뗄에뛏쿠ꎬ퓲퓚뾪쪼쪱ꎬ죋쏇췹췹믡뛔릫릲탅쾢뗄릫늼닉좡늻훘쫓뗄첬뛈ꎬ뛸뛔ퟔ벺뗄에뛏놣돖늻뇤믲횻쫇싔캢뗘뗷헻ퟔ벺뗄맽뛈뗄탅탄ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂컒쏇믡폐ꎺ 죧맻sign(I)=−sign(I)ꎬ퓲 21p'<π(p(I,I)≤π(p(I)ꎻq'>π(q(I,I)≥π(q(I)ꆣ 121121춬퇹ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ P=R(d)⋅[π(p(I,I))⋅v(x)+π(q(I,I))⋅v(y)] 21212듓뛸ꎬP≥P>Pꆣ 12A튲벴ꎬ떱릫릲탅쾢폫쮽죋탅쾢늻쿠럻쪱ꎬ믡뛔릫훚뗄맽뛈맀볛폐튻뚨뗄뗷헻ퟷ폃ꎬ떫늢늻믡솢벴냑볛룱뗷헻떽웤ꆰ뫏샭ꆱ뗄캻훃ꆣ 좻뛸ꎬ떱릫릲탅쾢폫릫훚풭쿈뗄에뛏쿠튻훂쪱ꎬ퓲죋쏇췹췹믡뇤뗃룼볓뗄ퟔ탅ꆣ퓚컒쏇뗄쒣탍훐ꎬ 죧맻sign(I)=sign(I)ꎬ퓲 21π(p(I,I)>π(p(I)>p'ꎻπ(q(I,I))<π(q(I))<q'ꆣ 121121틲뛸ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽ꎺ P=R(d)⋅[π(p(I,I))⋅v(x)+π(q(I,I))⋅v(y)] 21212듓뛸ꎬP>P>Pꆣ 21A 30
튲벴죧맻쮽죋탅쾢튻떩뗃떽퇩횤ꎬ퓲헢훖맽뛈랴펦뗄쿖쿳믡룼볓쏷쿔ꆣ릫훚믡뛔웤풭쿈뗄에뛏룼볓ퟔ탅뛸닉좡룼볓폐쟣쿲탔뗄탐캪ꆣ 떱좻ꎬ쯦ퟅ릫릲탅쾢뗄늻뛏랢늼ꎬ폐맘맀닢쫂볾캴살랢햹뗄탅쾢튲뻍풽랢뗄쟥컺쏷쇋ꎬ죋쏇뛔맀닢쫂볾튲뻍훰붥뗄폐쇋쟥돾뗄죏쪶ꎬ웤탄샭풤웚튲뻍믡훰붥뗘쿲P뾿뷼쇋ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ웤랴펦뗄춼탎죧쿂ꎺ A P P A t 1 23 춼6 웤훐퓚1웚ꎬ릫훚뷓쫕떽쮽죋탅쾢ꎬ뛸퓚2웚내쫜떽돵쪼뗄릫릲탅쾢ꆣ쪵쿟뇭쪾쇋릫릲탅쾢폫쮽죋탅쾢늻쿠럻뗄쟩뿶ꎬ뛸탩쿟퓲뇭쪾쇋릫릲탅쾢폫쮽죋탅쾢쿠럻뗄쟩뿶ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ짧믡릫훚뗄헻쳥뚨볛쒣탍 틔짏쯹뾼싇뗄떥룶릫훚듓웤탄샭풤웚킧폃몯쫽돶랢쯹뗃떽뗄뚨볛릫쪽ꎬ늢쳖싛쇋쮽죋탅쾢틔벰릫릲탅쾢뛔폚볛룱늨뚯뗄펰쿬ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ퓚쫐뎡짏ꎬ컒쏇쯹뷓뒥뗄췹췹쫇평폚릩쟳맘쾵뻶뚨뗄ퟜ쳥뗄볛룱ꆣ쓇쎴ꎬ컒쏇쯹쏦쇙뗄튻룶컊쳢뻍쫇ꎬ릫훚뗄탄샭풤웚킧폃몯쫽쫇럱뻟폐뿉볓탔ꎿ 퇏룱뗄쮵ꎬ평폚탄샭풤웚킧폃몯쫽쯹뾼싇뗄쫇쎿튻룶뻟쳥뗄룶죋뛔폚맀닢쫂볾뗄탄샭움볛ꎬ쎿튻룶룶죋폐웤ퟔ짭뗄뺭샺뫍컄뮯ꆢ짧믡놳뺰ꎬ웤탄샭랴펦쫇늻뺡쿠춬뗄ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ탄샭풤웚킧폃몯쫽늢늻뻟폐췪좫뗄뿉볓탔ꆣ 떫쫇ꎬ퓚놾컄훐ꎬ컒쏇뾼달뗄뚼쫇튻킩웕뇩뗄탄샭쳘헷ꆣ튲뻍쫇듓웕뇩틢틥짏살쮵ꎬ죋쏇뚼믡뻟폐헢킩탄샭탐캪ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔죏캪ꎬ뛔폚춬튻쫂볾ꎬ죋쏇뗄헢킩탄샭랴펦쫇듳훂닮늻뛠뗄ꆣ늢쟒ꎬ컒쏇퓚잰쏦뮨쇋뷏듳뗄욪럹살쳖싛죋쏇뗄듓훚탐캪ꎬ튲뇭쏷쇋퓚튻뚨뗄쮽죋탅쾢펰쿬쿂ꎬ죋쏇믡닉좡쿠샠쯆뗄탐캪쒣쪽ꆣ헢뻍쪹뗃컒쏇뿉틔볙뚨탄샭킧폃몯쫽뻟폐튻뚨뗄뿉볓탔ꆣ떱좻ꎬ헢퇹뗄뒦샭튲쫇캪쇋쪹뗃컒쏇뗄쒣탍룼볓뗄볲뮯ꆣ웤쪵ꎬ듓뫳쏦뗄쳖싛컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ헢퇹뗄뒦샭쫇럇뎣폐냯훺뗄ꆣ 31
컒쏇듓짏쏦뗄쒣탍쳖싛훐뿉틔횪뗀ꎬ릫훚뛔맀닢쫂볾뗄움볛훷튪틀삵폚쮽죋탅쾢틔벰릫릲탅쾢ꆣ뛸쟒쮽죋탅쾢퓚헢맽돌훐웰ퟅ룼볓훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ컒쏇뇘탫뮹튪뾼싇쮽죋탅쾢뗄뒫능뛔폚ퟜ쳥ꎨ믲쫐뎡뗄ꎩ볛룱뗄펰쿬ꆣ룹뻝잰쏦뗄탅쾢뒫능쒣탍ꎬ컒쏇폐ꎺ 1G=ꎬ 1−G−rt0(1+e)G0웤훐ꎬG캪뷓쫜떽쮽죋탅쾢뗄죋좺뇈샽ꆣ 캪쇋뇣폚쳖싛ꎬ컒쏇볙뚨헻룶쫐뎡훐뗄죋뿉틔럖캪솽샠ꎬ튻샠쫇뿉틔뷓뒥떽쮽죋탅쾢뗄죋좺ꎬ웤뇈샽캪αꎬ뛸쇭튻샠쫇쎻폐냬램뷓뒥떽쮽죋탅쾢뗄죋좺ꎬ웤뇈샽캪ꎨ1-αꎩꆣ틲뛸ꎬ헢샯G뿉틔뾴ퟷ쫇퓚뗚튻샠죋좺훐뷓뒥떽탅쾢뗄죋좺뗄뇈샽ꆣ 룹뻝짏쏦뗄듺뇭탔릫훚ꎨ튲벴탄샭킧폃몯쫽뿉볓탔ꎩ뗄볙뚨ꎬ컒쏇볙짨쎿튻룶춶헟퓚뷓뒥떽쿠춬뗄탅쾢믡ퟷ돶샠쯆뗄랴펦ꎬ퓲ꎺ P=R(d)⋅[π(p(I))⋅v(x)+π(q(I))⋅v(y)] 1뛔폚쯹폐뗄릫훚뛸퇔뚼쫇튻퇹뗄ꎨ뺡맜헢튻볙뚨쫇맽잿뗄ꎬ떫럅쯉헢튻볙뚨늢늻믡뛔ퟮ훕뗄뷡맻닺짺첫듳뗄펰쿬ꎩꆣ 볙뚨쫐뎡짏뗄ퟮ훕뇭쿖볛룱쫇쯹폐릫훚뗄욽뻹볛ꎬ늢볙짨풭살뗄볛룱캪Pꆣ죧0맻쎻폐쮽죋탅쾢ꎬ튲쎻폐릫릲탅쾢ꎬ퓲헢튻볛룱늻믡랢짺룄뇤ꎬ폚쫇컒쏇폐쫐뎡뗄욽뻹볛캪ꎺ P=[G⋅P+(1−G)⋅P]⋅α+(1−α)⋅P 1001웤훐ꎬG=캪쮽죋탅쾢뒫뗝뗄랽쪽ꆣ헢퇹ꎬ춨맽뾼싇쮽죋탅쾢뒫1−G−rt0(1+e)G0뗝뗄뇤뮯ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽막볛뗄늨뚯뇤뮯ꎬ죧춼쯹쪾ꎺ P P⋅α+P⋅(1−α)10 P 0춼7 32
뛸평폚릫릲탅쾢뛔폚쯹폐뗄릫훚뛸퇔ꎬ뚼쫇춬쪱뿉틔뷓쫕떽뗄ꎬ틲뛸웤뛔릫훚뗄탄샭펰쿬쫇벴웚뗄ꎬ튲쫇춬쪱뗄ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ뫳웚뗄뇤뮯폫풭살떥룶죋뗄뚨볛뇤뮯쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ컒쏇폐ퟜ쳥볛룱뗄뇤뮯캪ꎨ틔볛룱쿲헽뗄튻랽뇤뚯캪샽ꎩꎺ P P A t 41 23 춼8 쯄ꆢ쒣탍뗄펦폃 1ꎮ뚨탔럖컶 컒쏇짏쏦듓죋쏇뗄탄샭풤웚킧폃몯쫽돶랢ꎬ쳖싛쇋막볛뗄늨뚯쒣쪽ꆣ퓚헢튻늿럖ꎬ컒쏇붫듓헢킩쒣탍돶랢쳖싛쒣탍뗄믹놾탔훊뫍튻킩볛룱탐캪쳘헷ꆣ 컒쏇뾴떽ꎬ짏쏦뗄쒣탍떼돶튻룶췕럥탎ힴ뗄뛔쒳튻맀닢쫂볾뗄랴펦랽돌ꆣ헢튻춼탎뇭쏷퓚쪱웚1ꎬ믡폐솽훖늻춬뗄볛룱뇭쿖ꆣ죧맻릫릲탅쾢뷸튻늽횧돖쇋릫훚뗄탅탄ꎬ퓲맽뛈랴펦믡룼듳틔벰웤뗷헻뗄맽돌믡룼볓뎤뻃ꎬ떫죧맻릫릲탅쾢뛔릫훚뗄맽뛈랴펦폐쯹뗷헻ꎬ퓲쫐뎡뗄늨뚯쫇뇈뷏욽뮺뗄ꎨ헢샯뗄잰쳡쫇쯹폐뗄릫릲탅쾢뚼쫇헦쪵탅쾢뗄랴펳ꎬ쎻폐뾼싇헾뢮ퟷ볙뗄탐캪ꎩꆣ퓚룃춼훐ꎬ컒쏇냑볛룱짏짽뗄웚볤돆캪맽뛈랴펦웚ꎬ뛸냑볛룱뻀헽뗄웚볤돆캪뗷헻웚ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ퓚맽뛈랴펦웚볤믲뗷헻웚볤쓚늿뗄볛룱뇤뮯뚼쫇춬쿲뗄ꎬ튲벴볛룱뇤뮯쫇헽쿠맘뗄ꆣ떫죧맻뾼싇럥횵솽뇟뗄볛룱뇤뮯쟩뿶ꎬ쓇쎴쿔좻쫇뢺쿠맘뗄ꆣ컒쏇틔릫릲탅쾢폫쮽죋탅쾢쿠럻뗄쟩뿶캪샽ꎺ Cov(P−P,P−P)>0;2110Cov(P−P,P−P)<0; 3221Cov(P−P,P−P)<0;4220웤훐ꎬP ꆢPꆢPꆢP럖뇰뇭쪾1웚ꆢ2웚ꆢ3웚ꆢ4웚뗄볛룱쮮욽ꆣ 1234떫죧맻퓚럥횵솽뇟뗄뢺쿠맘맘쾵럇뎣킡ꎨ헢쪱럥횵뢽뷼뗄뇤뮯럇뎣욽뮺ꎩꎬ쓇쎴떱뾼싇뛌웚ꎨ죧떥웚ꎩ뗄볛룱뇤뮯쪱ꎬퟜ쳥뗄욽뻹쿠맘쾵쫽뻍뫜죝틗쫇헽뗄ꆣ좻 33
뛸ꎬ죧맻폃뷏뎤뗄쪱볤뛎살뷸탐뮮럖ꎨ죧짏쏦Cov(P−P,P−P)ꎩꎬ퓲컒쏇믡뫜죝4220틗뾼싇떽럥횵솽뇟뗄볛룱뇤뮯ꎬ헢쪱뻍뫜죝틗믡뇭쿖돶뢺뗄쿠맘쾵쫽ꆣ헢튲뻍닺짺쇋듳솿컄쿗쯹쳡떽뗄뛌웚뗄쮳쫆쿖쿳ꎨmomentumꎩ틔벰뎤웚뗄쓦쫆쿖쿳ꎨreversalꎩꆣ 룼뻟쳥뗘쮵ꎬ듓춼8돶랢ꎬ컒쏇뾼달떥웚뗄볛룱뇤뮯ꆣ퓚튻뚨쳵볾쿂ꎨ죧쮽죋탅쾢뒫능뗄쯙뛈뇈뷏뮺싽ꎬ믲릫훚뗄맽뛈탅탄늢늻쫇뫜잿쇒ꎬ폖믲헟릫릲탅쾢뛔릫훚뗄랴펦늢쎻폐닺짺쪲쎴펰쿬ꎩꎬ쓇쎴ꎬ퓚럥횵솽뇟뗄ퟔ쿠맘쾵쫽뫜뿉쓜럇뎣뷓뷼폚0ꎬ듓뛸헢튻뢺뗄쿠맘쾵쫽튲뻍믡놻맽뛈랴펦뷗뛎틔벰뗷헻뷗뛎뗄헽뗄쿠맘쾵쫽쯹퇚룇ꆣ뮻뻤뮰살쮵ꎬ퓚쎻폐죎뫎쿞훆쳵볾쿂볆쯣막볛뇤뮯뗄ퟔ쿠맘쾵쫽믡랢쿖ꎬ퓚튻룶듳퇹놾웚볤샯ꎬ떥웚ꎨ튲벴뛌웚ꎩ뗄ퟔ쿠맘쾵쫽쫇헽뗄ꆣ틲캪헢쪱웤쪵쯻쯹볆쯣뗄쫇튻룶욽뻹뗄ퟔ쿠맘쾵쫽ꆣ쿠랴뗘ꎬ뎤웚뗄볛룱뇤뮯뫜죝틗럖뇰캻훃폚럥횵뗄솽뇟ꎬ틲뛸웤볛룱뗄뇤뮯랽쿲췹췹쫇쿠랴뗄ꆣ듓짏쏦뗄춼탎튲뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ맽뛈랴펦웚뗄볛룱뇤뮯폫뗷헻웚뗄볛룱뇤뮯쫇뢺쿠맘뗄ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ볆솿뗄뷡맻튲뻍믡닺짺튻룶뢺뗄욽뻹ퟔ쿠맘쾵쫽ꆣ 듓뛸ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ헢튻쒣탍늻뷶뷶뷢쫍쇋뛌웚랴펦늻ퟣ뗄쿖쿳ꎬ뛸쟒뮹랴펳쇋뎤웚맽뛈랴펦뗄쿖쿳ꆣ 듋췢ꎬ컒쏇뮹뿉틔듓룃쒣탍훐뾴떽탅쾢뒫뗝죧뫎믡펰쿬떽쪵횤럖컶뗄뷡맻ꆣ죧맻퓚릫훚뗄맽뛈랴펦뷗뛎ꎬ평폚탅쾢뗄뒫능쯙뛈뫜싽뛸쟒릫훚헻쳥뗄맽뛈탅탄늻쫇뫜잿쇒ꎬ늢쟒릫릲탅쾢벰쪱볓틔릫늼ꎬ뛔릫훚뗄맽뛈탅탄뷸탐쇋벰쪱뗄뻀헽ꎬ쓇쎴듓춼탎짏컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ볛룱퓚짏짽떽뫏샭뗄볛캻P쪱뻍믡뗃떽뗷헻ꎬ틲뛸웤뫳탸A뗄뗷헻뷗뛎튲뻍늻믡돶쿖쏷쿔뗄ꆰ랴쿲탞헽ꆱ뗄쿖쿳ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ죧맻룹뻝헢튻쫂볾뷸탐쫂볾퇐뺿뗄쪵횤럖컶ꎬ컒쏇튲뻍횻뗃떽튻룶헽뗄욽뻹ퟔ쿠맘쾵쫽ꎬ컞싛쫇쯹좡뗄웚볤쫇뛌웚뮹쫇뎤웚뷡맻뚼믡튻퇹ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뿉틔죏캪ꎬ뛔폚쓇킩횮잰쎻폐죎뫎벣쿳ꎬ뛸쟒웤뷒쪾쓚죝늻믡뛔막쫐닺짺뷏듳뗄짽믲뗸뗄탄샭쳡쪾뗄쿻쾢뛸퇔ꎬ웤퓬돉뗄펰쿬뻍헽죧짏쏦쯹쏨쫶뗄튻퇹ꎬ퓚쪵횤짏쫇늻듦퓚맽뛈랴펦뗄ꆣ떫뛔폚튻킩뛔쫐뎡뗄펰쿬뷏듳ꎬ뛸쟒퓚뗃떽릫릲탅쾢횤쪵틔잰폐뷏뛠ꆰ킡뗀쿻쾢ꆱ뗄쫂볾뛸퇔ꎬ퓲웤췹췹믡폐럇뎣쏷쿔뗄맽뛈랴펦뗄쫐뎡탐캪ꆣ 2ꎮ쒣쓢럖컶 퓚헢샯ꎬ컒쏇룹뻝짏쏦쒣탍뾼달튻쿂룷훖틲쯘뗄뇤뮯뛔막볛늨뚯뗄펰쿬ꆣ컒쏇튲뿉틔춨맽닎쫽뗄뇤뮯ꎬ뾴튻뾴막볛뗄늨뚯춼탎믡랢짺쪲쎴퇹뗄뇤뮯ꆣ떫퓚컒쏇뗄쒣탍훐ꎬ볈폐뿍맛쿖쪵뗄틲쯘ꎬ튲폐탄샭랽쏦뗄틲쯘듦퓚ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ컒쏇뮹탨뛔헢킩탄샭틲쯘럖뇰뗄뷸탐뾼달ꆣ 34
ꎨ1ꎩ럇탄샭틲쯘뗄럖컶 쒣탍훐뗄럇탄샭랽쏦뗄틲쯘쫗쿈냼삨맀닢쫂볾퓚캴살뗄닺돶ꆣ퓚볲뮯뗄쒣탍훐ꎬ튲벴x뫍yꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ탄샭풤웚킧폃튲뻍쫇뛔헢솽훖늻춬닺돶뗄탄샭볓좨ꎬ웤좨훘캪뇰캪π(p)뫍π(q)ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ죧맻맀닢쫂볾쫇뇈뷏좷뚨뗄ꎬ믲헟쮵ꎬ웤뇤뚯럹뛈늢늻쫇뫜듳ꎬ쓇쎴릫훚뛔맀닢쫂볾뗄탄샭맀볛튲뻍늻믡폫웤쓚퓚볛횵쿠닮뫜듳ꎬ듓뛸웤돶볛튲쫇쿠뛔뇈뷏뷓뷼뫏샭볛캻ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ퓚랢짺룅싊튻훂뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ죴|x'−y'|<|x−y|믲헟쫇|v(x')−v(y')|<|v(x)−v(y)|ꎬ캪쇋뾼달뗄랽뇣ꎬ늻럁틀풭볙뚨ꎬ벴v(x')>0>v(y')ꎬ쟒v(x)>0>v(y)ꎬ퓲폐ꎺ P'=[π(p)v(x')+π(q)v(y')]R(d)ꎬ P=[π(p)v(x)+π(q)v(y)]R(d)ꎬ P'−P={π(p)[v(x')−v(x)]+π(q)[v(y')−v(y)]}R(d) 죴P'>0쟒P>0ꎬ퓲쿔좻P'−P<0ꎬ튲벴헢쪱볛룱짏짽뗄맽뛈랴펦돌뛈튪쿠뛔뗍튻킩ꎻ 죴P'<0쟒P<0ꎬ퓲쿔좻P'−P>0ꎬ튲벴헢쪱볛룱쿂붵뗄맽뛈랴펦돌뛈튪쿠뛔뗍튻킩ꆣ 헢뇭쏷ꎬ죧맻맀닢쫂볾뗄늻좷뚨탔풽듳ꎬ퓲웤볛룱뗄뇤뚯럹뛈튲뻍풽듳ꆣ뛔폚막쫐살쮵ꎬ죧맻쒳볾쫂볾뗄랢짺붫믡뛔쫐뎡틽웰뗄펰쿬풽늻좷뚨ꎬ퓲웤쯹듸살뗄막볛늨뚯튲뻍믡풽듳ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ튻떩쫐뎡뛔웤탎돉쒳훖쟣쿲탔뗄탄샭풤웚ꎬ퓲맽뛈랴펦뗄돌뛈튲뻍풽듳ꆣ 쒣탍쇭튻룶럇탄샭뗄틲쯘쫇횪쟩헟ꎨ폃컒쏇막쫐짏뗄뮰살쮵캪좦쓚죋ꎩ뗄뇈샽αꆣ듓쫐뎡볛룱뗄뚨볛릫쪽뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ횪쟩헟뗄뇈샽쫇펰쿬볛룱늨뚯뗄튻룶뫜훘튪뗄틲쯘ꆣ죧맻탅쾢훷튪뗄틀삵폚쮽죋탅쾢뒫능ꎬ벴춨맽뗧뮰ꆢ붻첸ꆢ뗧ퟓ폊볾뗈ꎬ퓲헢훖탅쾢쯹뢲룇뗄풽맣ꎨ좦쓚죋뗄좦ퟓ풽듳ꎩꎬ죋쏇룹뻝헢훖탅쾢쯹닺짺뗄릫훚헻쳥뗄맽뛈ퟔ탅튲뻍풽쏷쿔ꎬ듓뛸볛룱뇤뚯뗄럹뛈튲뻍풽듳ꆣ폫듋쿠맘뗄쫇쮽죋탅∂G쾢뗄뒫능쯙뛈rꆣ뿉틔횪뗀ꎬ>0ꎻ쮽죋탅쾢뗄뒫능쯙뛈횱뷓펰쿬떽릫훚맽뛈랴∂r펦탐캪뗄뒫좾쯙뛈ꎬ튲뻍믡펰쿬떽릫훚랴펦늻ퟣ믲맽뛈랴펦뗄벤쇒돌뛈ꆣ죴r뫜킡ꎬ퓲쮽죋탅쾢뗄뒫능뫜싽ꎬ튪맽쿠떱튻뛎쪱볤닅믡폐ퟣ릻쫽솿뗄죋훘쫓헢튻탅쾢ꎬ듓뛸닅쓜틽웰볛룱뗄듳럹뛈뇤뮯ꆣ헢튲뻍닺짺쇋쫐뎡짏뗄랴펦늻ퟣ뗄쿖쿳ꆣ떫죧맻r뫜듳ꎬ퓲쮽죋탅쾢뗄뒫능뫜뿬ꎬ릫훚퓚뫜뛌쪱볤쓚뻍쓜릻뛔헢튻탅쾢뇭쿖돶ퟜ쳥뗄랴펦탐캪ꎬ틲뛸ꆰ랴펦늻ퟣꆱ뗄쿖쿳튲뻍늻쏷쿔ꎬ뛸죋쏇횱뷓맛달떽뗄쫇랴펦맽뛈ꆣ 35
뮹폐튻룶뫜훘튪뗄틲쯘뻍쫇릫릲탅쾢뗄뒫능ꆣ듓쒣탍훐컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ죧맻릫릲탅쾢늻쓜벰쪱뗄릫늼ꎬ쓇쎴퓚릫훚훐웰떽훷튪펰쿬ퟷ폃뗄뇘좻쫇쮽죋탅쾢ꎬ떫쮽죋탅쾢룸듳뛠쫽춶헟믡닺짺뻟폐탄샭쟣쿲틢틥뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛸쟒헢훖쟣쿲뗄틢볻믡퓚쮽죋탅쾢뗄뒫능훐뗃떽늻뛏뗄잿뮯ꎬ튲뻍죝틗닺짺맽뛈랴펦뗄탐캪ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ듓헢룶틢틥짏살쮵ꎬ랴펳쫂볾헦쪵쿠맘탅쾢뗄릫릲탅쾢뗃늻떽벰쪱뗄릫늼ꎬ퓲뿉쓜믡듸살릫훚뗄퇏훘뗄맽뛈랴펦ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ탄샭틲쯘뗄펰쿬 컒쏇뗄쒣탍쫇튻룶탄샭풤웚킧폃몯쫽쿂뗄쒣탍ꎬ훷튪뾼달뗄쫇탄샭틲쯘퓚죋쏇뚨볛탐캪훐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ떫쫂쪵짏ꎬ죋쏇뗄탄샭탐캪뚼쫇뛔뿍맛럇탄샭틲쯘뇤뮯뗄랴펳ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ탄샭틲쯘췹췹쫇춨맽럇탄샭틲쯘살랢짺ퟷ폃뗄ꎬ헢훖ퟷ폃뗄맽돌붫쫜떽죋뗄컄뮯ꆢ볒춥ꆢ짧믡뗈룷랽쏦뗄펰쿬ꆣ 컒쏇쿈뾴튻쿂탄샭좨훘π(⋅)ꎬ쯼뇭쪾뗄쫇죋쏇뛔쒳튻맀닢쫂볾랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔뗄탄샭움볛ꆣ헽죧잰쏦쯹쳖싛뗄ꎬ쯼믡쫜떽죋맽좥뗄뺭샺ꆢ쯹뷓쫜뗄뷌폽틔벰쯹뒦뗄짧믡놳뺰뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚쒣탍훐ꎬ죧맻릫훚뛔쒳튻쫂볾뗄랢짺뿉쓜탔뗄탄샭움볛풽룟ꎬ퓲웤쯹뇭쿖돶살뗄맽뛈ퟔ탅튲뻍풽쏷쿔ꆣ듓뛸닺짺뗄맽뛈랴펦믲랴펦늻ퟣ뗄쿖쿳튲뻍믡풽쏷쿔ꆣ뻙샽살쮵ꎬ훐맺막쫐퓚맽좥샺살믡폐ꆰ헾닟췐쫐ꆱ뗄ퟶ램ꎬ헢킩헾뢮탐캪쪹뗃릫훚쿠탅ꎬ횻튪막쫐돶쿖캣믺ꎬ헾뢮쫇튻뚨믡돶살뻈쫐뗄ꆣ헾뢮늻믡퇛헶헶뗘뾴ퟅ막쫐튻횱쿂뗸뛸죃맺폐닺틔벰죋쏱좺훚뗄닺퓢쫜쯰쪧ꎬ틲캪컒쏇뗄헾뢮쫇죋쏱뗄헾뢮ꆣ헢뷡맻뻍떼훂쇋죋쏇뛔막쫐퓚솬탸쿂뗸뫳믡랴떯뗄뿉쓜탔폐쇋맽룟뗄움볛ꆣ틲뛸튲뻍돶쿖쇋뫜뛠막쏱믡돖막늻엗뛸뗈듽헾닟뻈쫐뗄쿖쿳ꆣ떫쯦ퟅ릫릲탅쾢뗄늻뛏릫늼ꎬ릫훚뗄헢훖탄샭풤웚놻훰붥뻀헽쇋맽살ꎬ헢튲뻍돶쿖쇋쏷쿔뗄랴펦늻ퟣ뗄쿖쿳ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ듓헢튻뗣살뾴ꎬ릫훚뛔맀닢쫂볾랢짺뿉쓜탔뗄움볛붫횱뷓펰쿬릫훚뗄뻶닟탐캪ꎬ튲뻍듓뛸펰쿬떽막욱뗄볛룱탐캪ꆣ 듋췢ꎬ펰쿬탄샭좨훘뗄튻룶훘튪뗄탄샭틲쯘쫇뿕볤탄샭뻠샫sꆣ헽죧컒쏇잰쏦ω쯹쳖싛맽뗄ꎬ룶죋뛔폚쒳튻뿉쓜쫂볾랢짺룅싊뗄맀볆튪쫜떽웤뿕볤탄샭뻠샫뗄펰쿬ꆣ튻랽쏦ꎬ뿕볤탄샭뻠샫쫜탅쾢뗄펰쿬뷏듳ꎬ죧맻퓚막쫐훐뗄쒳튻뛎쪱볤ꎬ쎽쳥뗄릫늼탅쾢뚼벯훐폚쫐뎡뗄쒳튻쫂볾뗄쳖싛ꎬ퓲헢훖쫂볾뛔폚춶헟뛸퇔웤뿕볤탄샭뻠샫뻍믡놻삭뷼ꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ퓚듋잰뗄췸싧뺭볃죈뎱훐ꎬ평폚쎽쳥뗄뫦췐ꎬ뺡맜늻볻뗃쎿튻룶죋뚼뫜쟥돾췸싧뺭볃떽뗗쫇퓵쎴튻믘쫂ꎬ떫쓣뿉틔뾴떽떽뒦뚼폐죋퓚첸싛뗧ퟓ짌컱ꆢ탩쓢뺭볃틔벰췸싧릫쮾뗄컊쳢ꎬ쯆뫵듳볒뛔폚듋뚼럇뎣뗄쫬쾤ꆣ췸싧뺭볃돉캪뺭볃훷떼뗄뿕볤탄샭뻠샫놻듳듳뗄삭뷼ꎬ죋쏇뛔듋뗄탅탄튲뻍뗃틔볓잿ꎬ튲뻍돶쿖쇋쯹캽뗄ꆰ췸싧뿱죈ꆱ틔벰ꆰ췸싧엝쒭ꆱ뗄쿖쿳ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ뿕볤탄샭뻠샫뮹쫜ퟮ뷼뫍짭뇟뗄쫂쟩뷏듳뗄펰쿬ꆣ죧맻퓚죋쏇짭뇟욵욵랢짺튻킩샠쯆뗄쫂볾ꎬ 36
쓇쎴헢킩쫂볾믡퓚룶죋뗄에뛏훐웰ퟅ뫜듳뗄웴랢탔ퟷ폃ꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ퓚훐맺막쫐짏ꎬ평폚볠맜뗄볓잿뛸퓚잰튻뛎쪱볤욵욵랢쿖짏쫐릫쮾탩볙믡볆탅쾢뗄쟩탎ꎬ헢킩쫂볾컞틉듳듳퓶볓쇋릫훚뛔폚막쫐탅쾢춸쏷뛈뫍뿉뾿탔뗄뮳틉ꆣ죋쏇죏캪짏쫐릫쮾ퟷ볙뗄룅싊에뛏튲놻쳡룟쇋ꆣ 쇭튻룶훘튪뗄탄샭틲쯘쫇쪱볤탄샭뻠샫dꆣ헢튻틲쯘퓚쿠맘뗄컄쿗훐뫜짙폐짮죫뗄쳖싛ꆣ떫퓚컒쏇뗄쒣탍훐뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ쯼뛔릫훚ퟜ쳥뗄탄샭움볛뗄펰쿬쫇뫜횱뷓뗄ꆣ룹뻝잰쏦뛔탄샭헛쿖뗄쳖싛ꎬ죧맻맀닢쫂볾뛔릫훚쯹닺짺뗄펰쿬쫇벴웚뗄ꎬ퓲췹췹릫훚뛔헢튻쫂볾뗄탄샭뻠샫튪뇈쪵볊뗄헛쿖뻠샫튪뛌ꎬ튲벴릫훚뫜죝틗믡뿤듳쫂볾뗄펰쿬ꆣ쿠랴ꎬ죧맻쒳튻쫂볾뛔릫훚뗄펰쿬쫇뎤웚뗄ꎬ퓲릫훚췹췹믡쒮쫓헢튻펰쿬ꆣ뻍횤좯쫐뎡뛸퇔ꎬ죧맻헾뢮탻돆뻶뚨튪닉좡듫쪩볠맜짏쫐뗄훆뛈ꎬ냑뫃폅훊릫쮾짏쫐맘ꎬ룄짆막쫐뗄닺뷡릹ꎬ퓲웤뛔헻룶막쫐늢늻믡닺짺뫜듳뗄펰쿬ꎬ틲캪헢킩듫쪩늢늻쓜뛔떱잰뗄막쫐닺짺뫜듳뗄펰쿬ꆣ쿠랴ꎬ죧맻횤볠믡뻶뚨볓잿막쫐뗄볠맜ꎬ뻶뚨솢벴ퟅ쫖뗷닩릫쫂뗄닆컱뷡릹ꆢ듲믷럇램닙ퟝ막볛뗄탐캪ꎬ퓲컒쏇뫜죝틗뾴떽릫훚뛔듋ퟷ돶쏷쿔뗄랴펦ꆣ늻뷶뷶쫇퓚막쫐짏ꎬ퓚뺭볃쇬폲뗄뫜뛠뗘랽ꎬ컒쏇튲뚼뿉틔뾴떽쿠샠쯆뗄쿖쿳ꆣ 컥ꆢ훐맺막쫐뗄쪵횤럖컶 짏컄쳡릩쇋튻룶폐훺폚컒쏇듓탄샭뷇뛈좥샭뷢횤좯쫐뎡뗄튻룶쒣탍ꆣ컒쏇뿉틔듓헢룶쒣탍훐좥쳖싛막쫐뗄뫜뛠쿖쿳ꆣ떫웤훐튻룶뫜퇏훘뗄풼쫸쫇ꎬ컒쏇쎻폐냬램샻폃쫽뻝뛔죋쏇뗄탄샭틲쯘뷸탐뚨솿뗄럖컶ꆣ틲캪훁뷱쎻폐뫜뫃뗄냬램뛔탄샭탐캪뷸탐볆솿ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ컒쏇횻쓜듓쒣탍뗄췆떼뷡맻폫쫐뎡뗄탐캪뇭쿖뷸탐뇈뷏ꎬ뾴솽헟쫇럱튻훂ꎬ늢뎢쫔춨맽쒣탍뛔쫐뎡뗄탐캪뇭쿖ퟷ돶뷏캪뫏샭뗄쒣탍뷢쫍ꆣ헢퇹뗄튻훖ퟶ램듦퓚ퟅ뫜듳뗄늻ퟣꎬ떼훂쒳훖뷡맻뗄풭틲튲탭폐뫜뛠룶ꎬ떫춨맽헢퇹튻훖퇩횤랽램ꎬ쫇쓑틔뇦뇰쓄튻훖풭틲쫇떼훂쪵볊뷡맻뗄헦헽뗄풭틲ꆣ 평폚퓚쪵횤뷰죚틔벰탐캪뷰죚쳖싛뗄뇈뷏죈뗄뚼쫇맘폚맽뛈랴펦폫랴펦늻ퟣ뗄컊쳢ꎬ컒쏇뗄쒣탍뗄ퟮ듳쳘뗣튲뻍쫇듓탄샭틲쯘돶랢췆떼돶뛌웚랴펦늻ퟣ뛸뎤웚랴펦맽뛈뗄쿖쿳ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ퓚쪵횤럖컶늿럖ꎬ컒쏇튲훘뗣퇐뺿쒣탍뛔폚훐맺막쫐맽뛈랴펦믲랴펦늻ퟣ뗄뷢쫍쓜솦ꆣ 37
1ꆢ퇐뺿랽램 듓짏쏦뗄쒣탍훐ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ죋쏇뛔폚탅쾢뗄떽살웕뇩펦룃폐ퟅ퓚뷏뛌웚볤뗄랴펦늻ퟣ뗄쿖쿳ꎬ랴펦늻ퟣ뗄쪱볤폫탅쾢뒫뗝뗄쯙뛈폐맘ꆣ떫헢훖랴펦뗄뇭쿖튲폫탅쾢뗄뻟쳥쓚죝폫뻟쳥탎쪽폐맘ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ컒쏇뮹튪힢틢떽뗄튻룶컊쳢쫇튪뾼싇떽뛔막쫐뗄웰췆뚯ퟷ폃뗄쫂쪵짏쫇뷰솿뛸늻쫇춶헟뗄쫽쒿ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ헢샯뗄탅쾢뒫뗝펦룃쫇퓚뷰솿짏뗄뒫능쯙뛈뛸늻뷶뷶쫇퓚죋쫽훐뒫능쯙뛈ꆣ듋췢ꎬ듓쒣탍뗄뎤웚럖컶살뾴ꎬ춶헟펦룃듦퓚맽뛈랴펦뗄쿖쿳ꎬ뛸쟒뎤웚랴펦뗄럹뛈틔벰쪱볤뚼폫릫릲탅쾢뗄릫늼폐맘ꆣ컒쏇뛔훐맺막쫐뗄틑뺭듦퓚뗄쪵횤뷡맻뷸탐튻룶볲떥뗄럖컶ꎬ뾴튻뾴쓜뗃떽튻킩쪲쎴퇹뗄뷡싛ꎬ듓뛸뾴튻쿂컒쏇쒣탍뗄뷢쫍쓜솦ꆣ 튻냣퓚쪵횤뗄퇐뺿랽램짏ꎬ뿉틔닉폃솽훖늻춬뗄랽램살볬퇩훐맺막쫐헻쳥뗄맽뛈랴펦믲랴펦늻ퟣ뗄쟩뿶ꆣ뗚튻훖랽램쫇DeBondt & Thaler(1985ꎬ1987)훐뗄잿쫆막13뫍죵쫆막럖ퟩꎨWinner-Loser Portfolioꎩ뗄랽램ꎬ쿈냑퇹놾쫽뻝훐뗄막욱틔쒳튻쪱볤뛎ꎨ죧튻쓪ꎩퟷ캪ퟩ뫏탎돉웚ꎬ늢뾼싇퓚탎돉웚훐뗄막볛뇭쿖살쟸럖돶잿쫆막뫍죵쫆막ꎬ좻뫳뾼달쯼쏇퓚뷱뫳뗄볬퇩웚ꎨ튻냣폫탎돉웚쪱볤뎤뛈쿠뗈ꎩ훐뗄막볛탐캪뇭쿖ꎺ죧맻풭살뗄잿쫆막퓚뫳탸뗄볬퇩웚훐죔쓜놣돖웤잿쫆뗄뗘캻ꎬ퓲뿉틔죏캪막쫐쫇랴펦늻ퟣ뗄ꆣ죧맻풭살뗄죵쫆막퓚뫳탸뗄볬퇩웚볤훐뇭쿖돶잿쫆뗄뗘캻ꎬ퓲죏캪막쫐뎡쫇맽뛈랴펦뗄ꆣ 뗚뛾훖퇐뺿뗄랽램쫇룹뻝Lo & Mackinlayꎨ1990ꎩ훐뗄쓦쿲춶닟싔뗄럖컶14ꎬ뛔훐맺막욱내탐튵믲내맦쒣뗄듳킡럖샠탎돉늻춬뗄춶ퟩ뫏ꎬ좻뫳뷸탐춶ퟩ뫏뗄쫕틦럖뷢ꆣ뇈죧ꎬ냑훐맺막쫐훐뗄짏쫐릫쮾룹뻝늻춬뗄탐튵뷸탐럖샠ꎬ좻뫳내헕룷탐튵훐룷막욱훜쫕틦싊뗄볲떥욽뻹뗃떽쇋룷탐튵뗄훜쫕틦싊ꆣ뛸퓚퇐뺿쓦쿲춶닟싔뗄쪱뫲ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔냑탐튵ퟩ뫏쫓캪룶쳥막욱ꎬ듓뛸뿉틔뗃떽탐튵쫕틦싊뗄튻뷗킭랽닮헳틔벰룃춶닟싔뎬뛮쫕틦뗄살풴럖뷢ꆣ뷸탐룃쿮볬퇩뗄쒿뗄퓚폚ꎬ춨맽헢훖랽램살에뛏컒맺쫐뎡뗄맽뛈랴펦뫍랴펦늻ퟣ뗄쟩뿶살ퟔ폚평폚춶헟탐캪틽웰뗄막욱ퟔ짭뗄쪱탲쿠맘맘쾵뮹쫇살ퟔ폚막욱횮볤뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ 15헢솽훖랽램뚼뿉틔볬퇩훐맺뗄막쫐쫇럱듦퓚컒쏇짏쏦뗄쒣탍훐쯹췆떼돶살뗄뛌웚랴펦늻ퟣꎬ뎤웚맽뛈랴펦뗄쿖쿳ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ캪쇋뇣폚뛔맺쓚뗄쪵횤뷡맻뷸탐춳튻 13 Debondt W, and R. Thaler, “Does the Stock Market Overreact?” Journal of Finance, 1985, vol 40 -805ꎬDebondt W, and R. Thaler, “Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonality”, Journal of Finance, 1987,vol 42, pp 557-582. 14 Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig Mackinlay When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction, The Review of Financial Studies 1990, Vol 3, number 2, pp. 175-205. 15뗚죽훖퇐뺿뗄랽램쫇뛔막쫐ퟜ쳥뗄랴펦쟩뿶뷸탐쫂볾뗄탅뫅뒫뗝럖컶ꎨsignaling analysisꎩ ꎬ룹뻝훐맺막욱쫐뎡짏튻킩훘듳샺쪷쫂볾뛔헻룶막욱쫐뎡뗄펰쿬ꎬ살에뇰훐맺막쫐뛔늻춬탔훊뗄췢살탅쾢뗄뻟쳥뗄랴펦쟩뿶ꆣ뿉볻뇊헟뗄쇭튻욪컄헂ꆶ맽뛈랴펦뮹쫇랴펦늻ퟣꆷꎬ퇇훞뺭볃퇐쳖믡믡틩싛컄ꆣ 38
움싛ꎬ컒쏇퓚헢샯훷튪럖컶뗚튻훖랽램ꎬ벴잿죵막ퟩ뫏뇈뷏볬퇩ꎨWinner-Loser Porfolioꎩ뗄랽램ꆣ 2ꆢ쪵횤뷡맻뗄럖컶 듳뛠쫽맺췢뗄퇐뺿컄쿗뇭쏷ꎬ잿죵막ퟩ뫏춶닟싔퓚뛌웚쓚튻냣캪헽ꎬ헢뇭쏷퓚뛌웚쓚쫐뎡쫇랴펦늻ퟣ뗄ꎬ잿쫆막쿠뛔폚죵쫆막퓚뛌웚쓚죔좻쓜릻놣돖쯼잿쫆뗄뗘캻ꆣ뛸떽쇋뎤웚틔뫳ꎬ룃킧펦튻냣뻍뇤캪뢺뗄ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵쫐뎡퓚뎤웚살뾴쫇랴펦맽뛈뗄ꎬ쫐뎡믡싽싽뗄뻀헽웤맽뛈뗄랴펦ꆣ 쓇쎴퓚훐맺뗄막쫐짏ꎬ쟩뿶폖쫇죧뫎쓘ꎿ 퓚맺쓚ꎬ듳늿럖쪵횤뗄퇐뺿뚼쫇닉좡헢훖랽램ꆣ떫웤뷡싛좴룷늻쿠춬ꎬ웤훷튪뗄풭틲퓚폚뛔폚탎돉웚틔벰볬퇩웚뮮럖뗄늻춬틔벰막욱퇹놾뗄늻춬ꆣ헅죋ꆢ훬욽랽뫍췵뮳랼퓚ꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ1998쓪뗚5웚랢뇭뗄“짏몣횤좯쫐뎡맽뛈랴펦뗄쪵횤랴펦”ꎬ닉좡룹뻝막욱늨뚯탎첬뷸탐웚볤뮮럖뗄랽램ꎬ춨맽뛔짏몣횤좯붻틗쯹48볒짏쫐릫쮾퓚1993쓪6퓂—1996쓪4퓂볤722룶붻틗죕쫽뻝뷸탐쪵횤볬퇩ꎬ뗃떽잿막뫣잿ꆢ죵막뫣죵뗄뷡싛ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ평폚웤쪵횤럖컶훐쯹닉좡뗄탎돉웚뫍볬퇩웚뚼뷏뛌ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔죏캪웤쿠뛔쫇튻훖뛌웚뗄럖컶ꆣ웤뷡싛폫컒쏇쒣탍쯹뷒쪾뗄뛌웚킧펦쫇튻퇹뗄ꆣ튲벴듓ퟜ쳥짏뾴ꎬ퓚뛌웚쓚ꎬ훐맺막쫐늢쎻폐맽뛈랴펦뗄쳘헷ꎬ뛸쫇뇭쿖돶튻뚨뗄랴펦늻ퟣ뗄쿖쿳ꆣ헢튻뷡싛튲헅폀뚫ꆢ뇏쟯쿣ꎨ2002ꎩ뗈죋뗄컄쿗훐뗃떽퇩횤ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ퓚쯹폐헢킩컄쿗훐ꎬ컒쏇죧맻냑랽램싔볓뗷헻ꎬ냑잿쫆막ퟩ뫏뗄샛볆뎬뛮쫕틦복좥죵쫆막ퟩ뫏뗄샛볆뎬뛮쫕틦쯹뗃떽뗄쫕틦횮닮뇭쪾랴펳쫐뎡맽뛈랴펦믲랴펦늻ퟣ뗄잿죵막ퟩ뫏킧펦ꎨWinner-Loser Effectꎩꎬ퓲뚼뿉틔뗃떽훐맺막쫐퓚튻쓪틔쓚듦퓚ퟅ랴펦늻ퟣ뗄쿖쿳ꆣ벴짏튻쓪뛈뗄잿쫆막퓚뛌웚살뾴늢쎻폐쓜릻볌탸놣돖웤잿쫆뗄뗘캻ꎬ짏튻쓪뛈뗄죵쫆막퓚뛌웚쓚튲쎻폐쓜릻퓚볬퇩웚쓚뇭쿖돶잿쫆ꆣ 떫퓚뎤웚살뾴ꎬ훐맺막쫐뗄맽뛈랴펦킧펦좴쪮럖쏷쿔ꎬ쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄췆틆ꎬ쫐뎡싽싽뾪쪼뛔잰튻쓪뗄잿쫆막ퟩ뫏뷸탐쇋뗷헻ꎬ돶쿖쏷쿔뗄쫐뎡뷃헽뗄쿖쿳ꎺ튻쓪틔뫳ꎬ잿쫆막ퟩ뫏뗄샛볆뎬뛮쫕틦튪쏷쿔짙폚죵쫆막ퟩ뫏ꆣ튶쟠ꆢ틗떤믔ꆢ쳯뷱뎯ꎨ1999ꎩ춨맽뛔1992쓪떽1997쓪뗄쯹폐막욱뷸탐헢튻랽램뗄볬퇩랢쿖ꎬ훐맺막쫐듦퓚뇈뷏쏷쿔뗄맽뛈랴펦쿖쿳ꆣ 틲뛸ꎬ듓ퟜ쳥짏뾴ꎬ훐맺막쫐좷쪵듦퓚ퟅ뎤웚뗄맽뛈랴펦ꎬ뛸퓚뛌웚퓲듦퓚튻뚨뗄랴펦늻ퟣ쿖쿳ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ죧맻춶헟틔짏튻쓪뛈뗄튵벨뇭쿖살릹훾싲죫죵쫆막욱뛸싴뿕잿쫆막욱뗄쇣춶ퟩ뫏뗄뮰ꎬ쓇쎴춶헟뻍뫜폐뿉쓜퓚1쓪틔뫳쓜믱뗃 39
럡뫱뗄샻죳ꎬ틲캪퓚1쓪틔뫳ꎬ막쫐뛔맽뛈랴펦뗄뗷헻쿖쿳틑뺭럇뎣쏷쿔쇋ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ듓쪵횤뗄쫽뻝짏뾴ꎬ막쫐뗄ퟜ쳥뇭쿖폫컒쏇뗄쒣탍쫇뇈뷏튻훂뗄ꆣ 뛔폚쫂볾뗄럖컶ꎬ짲쫀럥ꆢ컢쫀얩ꎨ1999ꎩ퓲춨맽1996쓪1퓂27죕훐맺횤좯볠뚽맜샭캯풱믡릫늼ꆶ맘폚1996쓪짏쫐릫쮾엤막릤ퟷ뗄춨횪ꆷ잰뫳뗄뮮럖탎돉웚뫍볬퇩웚ꎬ춨맽쫂볾퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ퓚헢튻쫂볾잰뫳늢쎻폐쏷쿔뗄뎤웚믲뛌웚뗄맽뛈랴펦벣쿳ꆣ쿔좻ꎬ헢튲뿉틔듓컒쏇뗄쒣탍훐헒떽뷢쫍ꆣ헢폫쫂볾뗄놾짭탔훊폐맘ꎬ평폚ꆶ춨횪ꆷ뗄쓚죝뛔폚막쫐놾짭뗄짽뗸늢쎻폐웴쪾탔펰쿬ꎬ웤잰뫳뗄랴펦쫇뇈뷏욽뮺뗄ꆣ틲뛸쎻폐뷏쏷쿔뗄맽뛈랴펦웚뫍뗷헻웚ꆣ떫뛔폚맺폐막복돖쫂볾뗄럖컶ꎨ닜뫬믔ꎬ2002ꎩ퓲뇭쏷ꎬ쫐뎡듦퓚뇈뷏쏷쿔뗄맽뛈랴펦뗄쿖쿳ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ닌쏷뎯ꆢ퇮뎯뻼ꎨ2000ꎩ틔벰뫎뗂탱ꆢ췵잿ꆢ췵뷠ꎨ2002ꎩ춨맽뛔쫂볾퇐뺿뗄럖컶뇭쏷ꎬ뛔폚릫쮾뗄튵벨릫룦틔벰짏쫐릫쮾뗄탅쾢엻슶뗈쫂볾ꎬ훐맺막쫐뎤웚뗄쫐뎡뷃헽쿖쿳럇뎣쿔훸ꆣ 쿔좻ꎬ틔짏뗄헢킩럖컶튲춬퇹폫컒쏇뗄쒣탍뷡맻쿠튻훂ꆣ놾컄쯹쳡릩뗄쒣탍뿉틔뛔훐맺막쫐짏춬쪱듦퓚뗄맽뛈랴펦틔벰랴펦늻ퟣ쿖쿳쳡릩튻훖뷏캪뫏샭뗄뷢쫍ꆣ듓쒣탍뗄럖컶훐뿉틔횪뗀ꎬ펰쿬웤늻춬막볛뇭쿖탎쪽뗄ꎬ헽쫇탅쾢놾짭룸릫훚듸살뗄탄샭펰쿬뗄늻춬ꆣ 헢샯듦퓚뗄튻룶컊쳢쫇ꎬ캪쪲쎴듓쿠맘쪵횤훐랢쿖훐맺뗄막쫐랴펦늻ퟣ뗄쿖쿳늢늻쏷쿔뛸쟒쪱볤뷏뎤쓘ꎿ헢뿉틔폐솽룶랽쏦뗄뷢쫍ꆣ튻랽쏦ꎬ헽죧잰쏦쯹쮵뗄ꎬ막쫐뗄탅쾢뒫능웤쪵쫇퓚뷰솿짏뗄뒫능ꎬ뛸늻쫇퓚죋쫽짏뗄뒫능ꆣ훐맺뗄막쫐훐ꎬ쫇튻룶틔즢뮧캪훷뗄막쫐ꆣ뛸쯹캽ꆰ횪쟩헟ꆱ듳뛠쫇튻킩뷰솿뷏듳뗄춶헟ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ믹놾짏룕뾪쪼쪱뗄쓇킩좦쓚죋뚼쫇ꆰ듳뮧ꆱ믲ꆰ훐뮧ꆱꎬ탅쾢쫗쿈퓚헢늿럖죋훐뷸탐뒫뗝ꎬ뿉틔쮵웤퓚뷰솿짏뗄뒫능쯙뛈쫇뷏뿬뗄ꆣ떫떱탅쾢쿲늿럖즢뮧횪쟩헟뒫뗝쪱ꎬ퓲평폚즢뮧뗄뷰솿뷏짙ꎬ틲뛸웤퓚뷰솿짏뗄뒫능쯙뛈튲뷏싽ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ평폚탅쾢뗄늻춬ꎬ퓚헢훖뒫능믺훆쿂ꎬ믡떼훂막볛뗄늻춬랴펦ꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ뛔폚뫃쿻쾢ꎬ튻냣뛸퇔웤뒫능쯙뛈뷏뿬ꎬ틲뛸컒쏇믡뇈뷏죝틗맛달떽맽뛈랴펦뗄쿖쿳ꎬ뛸뛔폚뮵쿻쾢ꎬ평폚듳뮧믲훐뮧캪쇋펮뗃쪱볤살엗쫛ퟔ벺뗄막욱ꎬ틲뛸믡뿘훆쿻쾢뗄뒫능ꎬ틲뛸컒쏇믡뇈뷏죝틗맛달떽랴펦늻ퟣ뗄쿖쿳ꆣ헢튻뗣퓚헔폮쇺ꎨ1998ꎩ뗄컄헂훐튲뗃떽쇋퇩횤ꆣ 쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ헢튲뇭쏷ꎬ퓚훐맺헢퇹튻룶뒫춳뗄맺뛈샯ꎬ맣듳춶헟ퟮ캪틀삵뗄뒫능랽쪽튲헽쫇쮽죋탅쾢ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ웤쯹듸살뗄맽뛈랴펦뗄쪱볤뫍돌뛈뚼튪뇈웤쯻뗄뗘랽풶풶듳뗃뛠ꆣ듋췢ꎬ룹뻝잰쏦뗄쒣탍럖컶ꎬ죧맻퓚럥횵솽뇟뗄볛룱뇤뚯럹뛈뷏듳ꎨ헢쪱퓚럥횵뒦뗄쟺싊뻍풽듳ꎩꎬ퓲웤뢺쿠맘탔뗄펰쿬튲뻍뷏듳ꎬ쓇쎴ퟜ쳥뗄헽뗄쿠맘쾵쫽튲뻍늻쏷쿔쇋ꆣ헢폫컒쏇뛔훐맺막쫐훐듳웰듳실뗄맛달튲쫇뷏캪튻훂뗄ꆣ 40
죧맻냑컒쏇뗄랴펦쒣탍뾴돉튻룶뚯첬뗄맽돌ꎬ퓚쮽죋탅쾢뒫능뗄춬쪱ꎬ튲폐ퟅ릫릲탅쾢뗄뒫능ꎬ퓲컒쏇믡랢쿖ꎬ죧맻죋쏇뗄뻶닟춬쪱쫜릫릲탅쾢펰쿬ꎬ퓲막볛뗄뇤뚯튪쿠뛔욽뮺뗃뛠ꎬ웤랴펦늻ퟣ뗄쪱볤튲뻍믡쿠뛔뷏뎤ꎬ뛸죧맻웰훷튪ퟷ폃뗄쫇쮽죋탅쾢ꎬ퓲뻍믡폫컒쏇풭살뗄쒣탍믹놾튻퇹ꎬ헢쪱막볛뗄뇤뚯돌뛈튲쿠뛔뻧쇒ꎬ웤랴펦늻ퟣ믲랴펦맽뛈뗄쪱볤뎤뛈뚼믡뷏뎤ꆣ 좻뛸ꎬ맺쓚쯹웕뇩닉폃럖컶랽램죔좻쫇뇈뷏듖닚뗄ꆣ춬쪱헢훖럖컶랽램튲쎻폐뾼싇막욱횮볤뗄쿠맘탔컊쳢틔벰뛔폚룷쫂볾뻟쳥뗄랴펦믺훆ꆣ뷸튻늽뗄럖컶뿉닎볻샨탂욽ꎨ2002ꎩꆶ맽뛈랴펦폫랴펦늻ퟣꆷꆣ퓚룃컄훐컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ죧맻룹뻝짏쏦쯹쳡떽뗄룹뻝Lo & Mackinlayꎨ1990ꎩ훐뗄쓦쿲춶닟싔살뷸탐럖컶ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ훐맺막쫐좷쪵듦퓚뛌웚뗄랴펦늻ퟣ뫍뎤웚뗄맽뛈랴펦ꆣ늢쟒폫Lo & Mackinlay뗄쪵횤뷡맻늻튻퇹ꎬ퓚훐맺닉폃헢훖춶닟싔쯹쓜뗃떽뗄뎬뛮쫕틦늢늻쫇살ퟔ폚막욱횮볤뗄헽쿠맘탔ꎬ뛸쫇훷튪살ퟔ폚막욱ퟔ짭뗄뢺쿠맘탔ꎬ튲벴막욱ퟔ짭뗄맽뛈랴펦탐캪ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ룃컄춨맽뛔훐맺막쫐짏룷룶훷튪뗄샺쪷쫂볾뗄랴펦믺훆뗄쪵횤럖컶튲뷸튻늽횤쪵쇋맽뛈랴펦뗄듦퓚ꆣ 쇹ꆢ뷡싛 듓짏쏦뗄쪵횤럖컶훐뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ훐맺뗄막쫐듓뎤웚뛸퇔듦퓚뷏캪쏷쿔뗄맽뛈랴펦뗄쿖쿳ꆣ떫헢훖맽뛈랴펦뗄헦헽룹풴쫇쪲쎴ꎿ헢쫇튻룶컒쏇벸뫵늻뿉쓜헒떽웤헦헽풭틲뗄컊쳢ꆣ떫컒쏇뿉틔뺡뿉쓜뗘듓룷룶뷇뛈룸돶뇈뷏뫏샭뗄뷢쫍ꎬ퓚웤훐ꎬ탄샭틲쯘쿔좻쫇튻룶뫜훘튪뗄펰쿬ꆣ놾컄튲뻍쫇퓚뒫춳뗄뺭볃샭싛컞램뛔듋ퟶ돶뷢쫍뗄놳뺰쿂ꎬ듓춶헟뗄탄샭탐캪랽쏦룸돶튻룶뷢쫍ꆣ듓잰쏦뗄쒣탍뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ퓚룶죋튻킩웕뇩뗄탄샭쳘헷쿂ꎬ컒쏇좷쪵뿉틔뗃떽춶헟뎤웚맽뛈랴펦뗄뷡싛ꎨ룹뻝탅쾢뒫뗝믺훆뫍탅쾢쓚죝뗄늻춬ꎬ맽뛈랴펦뗄럹뛈뿉쓜쏷쿔튲뿉쓜늻쏷쿔ꎩꎬ죋뗄맽뛈ퟔ탅ꆢퟔ컒뿏뚨틔벰탄샭뻠샫뇤뮯뗈펰쿬뚼쫇웤놳뫳뷏캪훘튪뗄췆뚯솦ꆣ놾컄뗄쒣탍듓튻뚨돌뛈짏쫇뻟폐쿠떱쮵럾솦뗄ꎬ쯼쯹쏨쫶뗄듳뛠탄샭쳘헷폫훐맺뗄쪵볊쟩뿶뇈뷏뷓뷼ꎬ뛸쟒뾼싇떽쇋훐맺컄뮯뗈놳뺰틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ 듓컒쏇뗄쒣탍훐ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ펰쿬훐맺춶헟탐캪뗄튻룶훘튪풭틲쫇평폚쮽죋탅쾢뒫뗝훐닺짺뗄탅탄맽뛈뗄탄샭쿖쿳ꆣ평폚쏦뛔릫훚뗄탅쾢엻슶훆뛈뗄늻췪짆ꎬ쮽죋탅쾢뒫뗝퓚훐맺막쫐짏냧퇝ퟅ럇뎣훘튪뗄뷇즫ꆣ뛸쟒평폚쫐뎡뗄늻맦랶ꆢ막쏱컄뮯쯘훊늻룟틔벰볠맜쳥훆뗄늻췪짆뗈ꎬ웴랢탔탄샭틔벰좨췾탔탄샭떼훂쇋헢훖헻쳥탅탄맽뛈뗄볓잿ꎬ듓뛸튲뻍퓬돉쇋훐맺막쫐짏랴펦늻ퟣ틔벰맽뛈랴펦뗄웕뇩쿖쿳ꆣ듋췢ꎬ퓬돉훐맺막쫐헻쳥럇샭탔탐캪뗄튻룶뫜훘튪뗄풭틲뻍쫇듓훚탐캪뗄펰쿬ꆣ놾컄뮹듓튻킩뗤탍뗄탐캪쳘헷훐틽죫쇋탄샭뻠샫뗄룅쓮ꎬ쯼횱뷓펰쿬떽죋뗄훷 41
맛룅싊움볛틔벰뛔쒳튻쫂볾뗄훘쫓돌뛈ꆣ죋뗄뫜뛠탄샭뇤뮯튲뻍춨맽탄샭뻠샫뗄뇤뮯랴펳떽웤뺭볃탐캪떱훐ꆣ헢뇭쏷ꎬ훐맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄폐맘횤닟샭펦튪뾼싇떽죋뗄탄샭뻠샫컊쳢ꎬ짨램뗷헻춶헟탄샭뻠샫뗄뇤뮯닅쓜웰떽쿠펦뗄킧맻ꆣ듋췢ꎬ쒣탍쯹볙짨뗄횪쟩헟탅쾢뒫뗝믺훆튲랴펳쇋훐맺막쫐짏ꆰ듳뮧ꆱ폫ꆰ훐뮧ꆱ쯹냧퇝뗄ꆰ볒ꆱ훷떼훐맺막쫐뗄쿖쿳ꆣ쯻쏇뗄탐캪틔벰쯻쏇뛔룶뇰춶헟뗄펰쿬돉캪훐맺막쫐늨뚯뗄튻룶럇뎣훘튪뗄살풴ꆣ 듓헢튻쒣탍돶랢ꎬ컒쏇뮹뿉틔뷸튻늽짮죫뗄뾼싇쒣탍쯹틽랢돶살뗄튻킩컊쳢ꎬ16죧훐맺헾닟쫂볾뛔폚훐맺뗄막쫐펰쿬ꆢ볒뗄탐캪닟싔뛔막쫐뗄펰쿬뗈ꆣ헢킩퓚훐맺막쫐짏럇뎣폐쳘즫뗄쿖쿳뚼뿉틔헢튻쒣탍캪믹뒡ꎬ캪틔햹뾪쳖싛ꆣ평듋쯹뷸탐뗄짮죫뗄럖컶ꎬ컒쿠탅붫믡뗃떽튻킩럇뎣폐틢틥뗄뷡싛ꆣ 16쿠맘쓚죝뿉닎볻뇊헟뗄쇭튻욪컄헂ꆶ맽뛈랴펦폫랴펦늻ퟣꆷꆣ 42
[힢1] 퓚헢룶쪵퇩훐ꎬ낢쪲죃쪵퇩뛔쿳볓죫떽튻ퟩ죋떱훐ꆣ돽쇋쪵퇩뛔쿳ꎬ헢룶킡ퟩ훐뮹폐웟룶떽뻅룶죋폫쪵퇩뛔쿳뚼쯘늻쿠쪶ꎬ떫좴쫇낢쪲뗄ꆰ춬떳ꆱꎬ늢틑듓쯻쓇뛹뗃떽쇋죧뫎킭훺쪵퇩뗄횸쪾ꆣ헻ퟩ죋놻튪쟳내쮳탲믘듰12룶맘폚쿟뛎뎤뛈뗄뗄컊쳢ꆣ헢킩쿟뛎쫇뮭퓚뾨욬짏뗄ꆣ쪵퇩뛔쿳퓚떱훚룸돶ퟔ벺뗄듰낸횮잰ꎬ믡쿈쳽볻웤쯻듳늿럖죋뗄듰낸ꆣ컊쳢뗄헽좷뷢듰쿔뛸틗볻ꎬ떫쓇킩킭춬쪵퇩뗄죋맊틢냑12룶컊쳢훐뗄7룶듰듭ꆣ뾴ퟅ웤쯻듳늿럖죋컞튻샽췢뗄룸돶쯆뫵쫇쿠떱쏷쿔뗄듭컳떫좴튻훂뗄듰낸ꎬ쪵퇩뛔쿳췹췹믡쟼듓늢룸돶춬퇹뗄듭컳듰낸ꎬ뛸쟒뎣뎣믡뇭쿖돶붹싇믲뿠쓕뗄쟩탷ꆣ [힢2] 헢듎뗷닩뗄뷡맻죧쿂ꎺ 쓣춬틢쿂쏦뗄뇭쫶싰ꎿꆰ뛔폚뎤웚돖막헟살붲ꎬ막쫐쫇ퟮ뫃뗄춶뎡쯹ꎬ쯻쏇뿉틔퓚막쫐뗄헇뗸훐싲뷸늢돖폐막욱ꆣꆱ 1ꎮ럇뎣춬틢ꎨ76%ꎩ 2ꎮ폐킩춬틢ꎨ20%ꎩ 3ꎮ훐솢ꎨ2%ꎩ 4ꎮ폐킩늻춬틢ꎨ1%ꎩ 5ꎮ럇뎣늻춬틢ꎨ1%ꎩ 쓣뛔헢훖쮵램뗄춬틢돌뛈죧뫎ꎿꆰ죧맻퓙랢짺튻듎쿱1989쓪10퓂19죕쓇퇹뗄막쫐캣믺ꎬ막쫐퓚듳풼솽쓪ퟳ폒쪱볤튻뚨믡믘떽틔잰뗄쮮욽ꆣꆱ 1ꎮ럇뎣춬틢ꎨ47%ꎩ 2ꎮ폐킩춬틢ꎨ44%ꎩ 3ꎮ훐솢ꎨ3%ꎩ 4ꎮ폐킩늻춬틢ꎨ5%ꎩ 5ꎮ럇뎣늻춬틢ꎨ1%ꎩ 죧맻쏷쳬뗀쟭쮹횸쫽쿂뗸3%ꎬ쓣닂닢뫳쳬횸쫽붫믡ꎺ 1999 199619891ꎮ퓶뎤 56% 46%35%2ꎮ쿂붵 19% 24%34%3ꎮ늻뇤 12% 18%13%4ꎮ쮵늻쟥 13% 11%18% [힢3] 퓚Milgramr쪵퇩훐ꎬ쪵퇩뛔쿳놻튪쟳뛔튻룶ퟸ퓚엔뇟뗄죋쪩탐뗧믷ꎬ헢룶쫜뗧믷뗄죋죔쫇튻룶킭춬쪵퇩헟ꎬ폫쪵퇩뛔쿳쯘늻쿠쪶ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ룹놾쎻폐쪲쎴헦헽뗄뗧믷ꎬ뿉듋죋볙ힰퟶ돶헽퓚퓢쫜뗧믷뛸쳛춴쓑죌ꆢ춴뿠늻뾰뗄퇹ퟓꎬ늢뇭쪾쯻럇뎣춴뿠ꎬ튪쟳춣횹쪵퇩ꆣ떫떱훷돖쪵퇩뗄죋죃쪵퇩뛔쿳뷓ퟅ쪩탐뗧믷ꎬ늢볡돖쮵뗧믷늻믡뛔죋쳥ퟩ횯퓬돉폀탔짋몦쪱ꎬ탭뛠죋뚼믡내쯻쏇뗄뮰좥ퟶꆣ
ꆾ닎뾼컄쿗ꆿ 1. Alan Kirman, Ants, Rationality and Recruitment, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1993,v108, p137-156. 2. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions, Journal of Business, 1986, 59(4, Part2), October S251-S278. 3. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. “Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases”, Science, 1974(185): 124~131 4. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig Mackinlay When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction, The Review of Financial Studies 1990, Vol 3, number 2, pp. 175-205. 5. Asch, Solomon, Social Psychology Englewood Cliffs, : Prentice Hall, 1952. 6. Bailey, Norman T. The Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. London: C. Griffin. 1957. 7. Baruch FischhofꆢPaulSlovic and Sarah Lichtenstein, ꆰKnowing with Uncertainty: The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence.ꆱ Journal of Experimental Psychologyꆱ Human Perception and Performance, 1997(3): 522~564 8. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Prosect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk”, Econometrica, 1979(47): 263~290 9. Debondt W, and R. Thaler, ꆰDoes the Stock Market Overreact?ꆱ Journal of Finance, 1985, vol 40 -805. 10. Debondt W, and R. Thaler, ꆰFurther Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalityꆱ, Journal of Finance, 1987,vol 42, pp 557-582. 11. Deutsch, Morton and Harold B. Gerard. “A Study of Normative and Informatinal Social Influences upon Individual Judgement” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 1955(51):629~636. 12. Fama. E. and K. French, “Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices”, Journal of Political Economy, 1988, vol 95, -273 13. Harrison Hong, Terence Lim and Jeremy , “Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Monmentum Strategies”, The Journal of Finance, 2000, vol LV, -295 14. Hersh Shefrin and Meir Statman, Behavioral Portfolio Theory, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis , 35(2), June, 127-51. 15. Jacob Boudoukh, Matthew and Robert F. Whitelaw, “A Tale of Three Schools: Insights on Autocorrelations of Short-Horizon stock Returns”, 1994, The Review of Financial Studies, , -573 16. Jegadeesh,,N., “Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns”, Journal of Finance, 1990, , -898.
17. Leroy, S, F., “Risk Aversion and the Martingale Property of Stock Returns”, International Economic Review, 1973,vol. 14, pp. 436-446 18. Lola L. Lopes, Between Hope and Fear: The Psychology of Risk, Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 20, 255-95. 19. Milgram, Stanley, Obedience to Authority. New York: Harper and Row, 1974. 20. Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman, “ Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency”, The Journal of Finance, 1993, , -91 21. Navin Chopra, and Josef Lakonishok an dJay R. Ritter, “Measuring Abnormal Performance”, Journal of Financial Economics, 1992, vol 31, -268 22. , and L. Summers, “Mean Reversion in Stock Returns: Evidence and Implications” Journal of Financial Economics, 1988, , pp 27-60 23. , “Temporary Components of Stock Prices: A Skeptic’s View”, 1988, working paper, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. 24. Robert J. Shiller, Human Behavior and The efficiency of the Financial System, working paper 6375, National Bureau of Ecnomic Research. 25. Robert J. Shiller, Irrational exuberance, Princeton, NJ : Princeton University Press, c2000. 26. Shafir, Eldar, and Amos Tversky. “Thinking through Uncertainty: Nonconsequential Reasoning and Choice.” Cognitive Psychology, 1992(24): 449~474. 27. 췴쏷, 횣뎤붭, 헅ꎬꆶ탄샭쪵퇩뫍닢솿ꆷꎬ 훐맺뿆톧벼쫵듳톧돶냦짧2002쓪ꆣ 28. 맹샨퇒ꆢ쇵뿋짆ꎬꆶ탄샭톧.ꆷ..쓏뺩듳톧돶냦짧 2002쓪ꆣ 29. 튶쟠ꆢ틗떤믔ꆢ쳯뷱뎯ꎬꆶ컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄킧싊럖컶ꆷꎬꆶ풤닢ꆷꎬ1999쓪4퓂ꆣ 30. 돂킡퓃ꆢ샮뎿ꎬꆶ짏몣막쫐뗄쫕틦폫놾뷡릹맘쾵쪵횤퇐뺿ꆷꎬꆶ놱뺩듳톧톧놨ꆷꎬ1995쓪1퓂ꆣ 31. 뫂볌싗ꎬ ꆶ훐맺막쫐맽뛈춶믺뗄훆뛈럖컶ꆷꎬꆶ닆뺭뿆톧ꆷꎬ1997쓪2퓂 32. 헔킡욽ꎬꆶ훐맺막욱쫐춳볆럖컶ꆷꎬ뎬탇춼쫩망뗧ퟓ춼쫩ꆣ 33. 퇮뎯뻼ꎬ탌뺸뗈ꎬꆶ짏몣막욱쫐뎡막볛탐캪쪵횤퇐뺿ꆷꎬ뎬탇춼쫩망뗧ퟓ춼쫩ꆣ 34. 짲틕럥ꎬꆶ믡볆탅쾢엻슶폫컒맺막욱쫐뎡냫잿쪽폐킧탔뗄쪵횤럖컶ꆷꎬꆶ믡볆퇐뺿ꆷ1996쓪ꎬ뗚1웚ꆣ 35. 컢쫀얩ꎬꆶ컒맺횤좯쫐뎡킧싊뗄럖컶ꆷꎬꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷꎬ1996쓪뗚4웚ꆣ 36. 돂킡퓃ꆢ돂쿾ꆢ맋뇳ꎬꆶ훐맺막쫐죵탍킧싊뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꆷꎬꆶ믡볆퇐뺿ꆷꎬ1997쓪뗚9웚ꆣ
37. 헅죋ꆢ훬욽랽ꆢ췵뮳랼ꎺꆶ짏몣횤좯쫐뎡맽뛈랴펦뗄쪵횤볬퇩ꆷꎬꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷꎬ1998쓪뗚5웚ꆣ 38. 쯎쯌탋ꆢ뷰캰룹ꎬꆶ짏몣막쫐쫐뎡폐킧쪵횤퇐뺿ꆷꎬꆶ뺭볃톧볒ꆷꎬ1995쓪뗚4웚ꆣ 39. 뫎뗂탱ꆢ췵잿ꆢ췵뷠ꎬꆶ짏쫐릫쮾탅쾢엻슶ꆰ풤뺯훆뛈ꆱ뗄쪵횤럖컶ꆪꆪꆪ볦싛컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄폐킧탔뫍맽뛈랴펦ꆷꎬꆶ떱듺뺭볃뿆톧ꆷ2002쓪5퓂뗚24뻭ꆢ뗚3웚ꆣ 40. 닌쏷뎯ꆢ퇮뎯뻼ꎬꆶ폐킧쫐뎡볙짨벰웤뛔춶헟뗄웴쪾ꆷ,ꆶ횤좯쫐뎡떼놨ꆷ2001쓪뗚5웚ꆣ 41. 돂쿾ꆢ돂쫧퇠ꎬꆶ막욱붻틗솿뛔쓪놨탅쾢뗄랴펦퇐뺿ꆷ,ꆶ뷰죚퇐뺿ꆷ2001쓪뗚7웚ꆣ 42. 돂쿾ꆢ돂킡퓃ꆢ쇵ꎬꆶꏁ막펯폠놨룦뗄폐폃탔퇐뺿ꆷ,ꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ1999쓪뗚6웚ꆣ 43. 뫺쟚쟚ꆢ컢쫀얩ꎬꆶ횤좯쾵춳럧쿕쾵쫽맀볆훐펦힢틢뗄벸룶컊쳢ꆷ,ꆶ횤좯쫐뎡떼놨ꆷ2001쓪뗚11웚ꆣ 44. 쇵쫷돉ꆢ짲엦훷뇠ꎬꆶ훐맺놾쫐뎡잰퇘샭싛퇐뺿컄벯ꆷ,짧믡뿆톧컄쿗돶냦짧ꎬ2000쓪4퓂냦ꆣ 45. 짲틕럥ꆢ컢쫀얩ꎬꆶ훐맺횤좯쫐뎡맽뛈랴펦쇋싰?ꆷ,ꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ1999쓪뗚2웚ꆣ 46. 쳀퓆캪ꆢ슽붨쟅ꎬꆶ싛횤좯쫐뎡훐뗄믡볆퇐뺿:랢쿖폫웴쪾ꆷ,ꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ1998쓪뗚7웚ꆣ 47. 캺룕ꎬꆶ훐맺짏쫐릫쮾막샻럖엤뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꆷ,ꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ1998쓪뗚6웚ꆣ 48. 헔폮쇺ꎬꆶ믡볆펯폠엻슶뗄탅쾢몬솿ꆷ,ꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ1998쓪뗚7웚ꆣ 49. 헅킡웦ꎬꆶ짏쫐릫쮾탅쾢엻슶퇐뺿ꆷ,ꆶ듳열횤좯퇐뺿ꆷ1998쓪ꆣ 50. 탬볓룹ꎬꆶ뛔컒맺횤좯쫐뎡폐킧탔뗄볬퇩ꆷ,ꆶ맺퇐탅쾢ꆷ2000쓪ꆣ 51. 샨탂욽ꎬꆶ맽뛈랴펦뮹쫇랴펦늻ퟣꆷꎬ퇇훞뺭볃퇐쳖믡ꆪꆪꆰ탂쪱듺퇇훞뺭볃뫏ퟷꎺ훐맺뗘캻폫펰쿬ꆱ맺볊톧쫵퇐쳖믡ꎨ놱뺩듳톧ꎩ믡틩싛컄ꎬ
