짏쫐릫쮾막욱룼쏻쳘뗣뫍막쫐뗄룅쓮뎴ퟷꆪꆪ살ퟔA막뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꆡꆡ햪튪:룹뻝막욱룼쏻볲돆훐늻춬ퟖ퇛뷸탐럖ퟩ,뾼달쇋퓚룼쏻릫룦랢늼쪱,춶헟뛔몬폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲샠쯆ퟖ퇛뫍늻몬폐듋샠ퟖ퇛뗄막욱룼쏻릫룦뗄랴펦돌뛈,랢쿖춶헟뛔헢솽샠룼쏻쫂볾뗄랴펦돌뛈폐쿔훸쟸뇰,춶헟뛔룼쏻볲돆훐몬폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲샠쯆ퟖ퇛뗄룼쏻릫룦뗄랴펦돌뛈튪잿폚늻몬폐듋샠ퟖ퇛뗄룼쏻릫룦,늻춬쓪뛈춶헟뛔늻춬룼쏻ퟖ퇛뗄랴펦돌뛈튲쫇늻춬뗄,쮵쏷컒맺막쫐듦퓚뷏퇏훘뗄룅쓮뎴ퟷ쿖쿳ꆣ맘볼듊:막욱룼쏻;뿆벼ퟖ퇛;룅쓮뎴ퟷ훐춼럖샠뫅:ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1672-884Ò(2005)04-0455-04TheCharacteristicsofRenamingStocksinLimitedCompaniesandtheConceptualSpeculationinStockMarketDengJianpingꆡZengYong(UniversityofElectronicsScienceandTechnologyofChina,Chengdu,China)Abstract:,:renamingstock;technology2relatedwording;conceptualspeculationꆡꆡ막욱룼쏻쫇횸짏쫐릫쮾훷뚯룼룄릫쮾막욱볲쿠볓햼헻룶룼쏻짏쫐릫쮾뗄2912%ꆣ돆,ퟔ1999쓪뗄ꆰꆱ탐쟩틔살,쯦ퟅ막욱쫐뎡릫쮾막욱룼쏻릫룦늻몬폐캴쓜풤웚떽뗄탅뗄짽컂,짮뮦솽쫐쿆웰쇋ꆰ췸싧뿆벼막ꆱ죈뎱,짏쫐쾢,틲캪퓚룼쏻릫룦잰,릫쮾틑뛔퓬돉막욱룼쏻뗄릫쮾튲쿆웰쇋ꆰ룼쏻죈ꆱꆣꆰ뿆벼ꆱꆢꆰ룟뿆ꆱ뫍ꆰ뿆풭틲뛠듎뷸탐릫룦,춬쪱릫쮾쏻돆뗄룼룄틑퓚막뒴ꆱ튻쪱볤돉쇋탂쏻돆훐쪹폃욵싊ퟮ룟뗄듊믣ꆣ뚫듳믡춨맽,늢뷸탐릫룦,춶헟펦뛔헢킩탅쾢폐1998쓪틔잰,쎻폐튻볒릫쮾막욱룼쏻볲돆훐돤럖쇋뷢,막욱룼쏻횻쫇뛔막욱볲돆뗄튻훖룼룄몬폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲샠쯆ퟖ퇛,1998쓪폐1볒릫쮾막욱뛸틑ꆣ죧맻늻듦퓚룅쓮뎴ퟷ믲럇샭탔쿖쿳,춶헟룼쏻볲돆웴폃ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ쏻돆,폐2볒릫쮾볲돆훐듸뛔룼쏻릫룦펦룃쫇쎻폐랴펦뗄,뛔룼쏻볲돆몬폐폐ꆰ룟뿆ꆱꆢꆰ죭볾ꆱퟖ퇛,솽헟햼떱쓪룼쏻짏쫐릫쮾ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲샠쯆ퟖ퇛뗄룼쏻릫룦뫍늻몬폐듋샠ퟖ퇛ퟜ쫽뗄1215%ꆣ1999쓪룼쏻뗄45볒짏쫐릫쮾훐뗄룼쏻릫룦뗄랴펦돌뛈펦룃쫇쎻폐쟸뇰뗄ꆣ놾컄횱뷓웴폃ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ쏻돆뗄폐12볒,쇭폐9볒듸폐룟춨맽럖컶뇈뷏춶헟뛔헢솽샠룼쏻릫룦뗄랴펦돌킣폫뿆퇐풺쯹뗄볲돆믲듸폐룟뿆벼ퟖ퇹,햼떱쓪룼뛈살뾼달컒맺막쫐룅쓮뎴ퟷ뗄돌뛈ꆣ쏻짏쫐릫쮾ퟜ쫽뗄46167%ꆣ뛸2000쓪룼쏻뗄77볒짏쫐릫쮾훐횱뷓웴폃ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ쏻돆뗄폐1ꆡ쿠맘컄쿗뗄ퟛ쫶25볒,쇭폐12볒볲돆듸폐ꆰ룟탂ꆱꆢꆰ뿆뒴ꆱ뫍ꆰ탅쾢ꆱ뗈룟뿆DeLong뗈(1990)횤쏷쇋럇샭탔붻틗헟뿉틔벼ퟖ퇹,솽쿮쿠볓햼헻룶룼쏻짏쫐릫쮾뗄4811%ꆣ퓚쫐뎡짺듦뗄믺훆ꆣ럇샭탔붻틗헟뗄듦퓚뿉쓜믡2001쓪폐6볒릫쮾횱뷓웴폃ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ쏻돆,폐13볒돶쿖솽훖쟩뿶:ꋙ죎뫎붻틗헟뚼폐뿉쓜냑폫볛횵듸폐ꆰ룟탂ꆱꆢꆰ뿆뒴ꆱ뫍ꆰ탅쾢ꆱ뗈룟뿆벼ퟖ퇹,솽쿮컞맘뗄탅쾢죏캪쫇폫볛횵폐맘;ꋚ쒳킩붻틗헟죋쫕룥죕웚:2004-08-16믹뷰쿮쒿:뷌폽늿탂쫀볍폅탣죋닅횧돖볆뮮훺쿮쒿(뷌벼쮾[2005]2뫅)ꆤ455ꆤ
맜샭톧놨뗚2뻭뗚4웚2005쓪7퓂캪뗘훆퓬탩볙탅쾢,뛸웤쯻춶헟뿉쓜컞램쪶뇰룦잰뫳듦퓚뛠쳬솬탸늻붻틗뗄퇹놾;ꋜ쳞돽짏쫐웤헦캱뛸쫜떽펰쿬,헢솽훖탅쾢놻죏캪쫇퓫짹ꆣ쪱볤맽뛌,컞램맀볆웤헽뎣붻틗솿뗄퇹놾;ꋝ죴퓚Froot뗈(1992)죏캪퓚뛌웚붻틗웕뇩듦퓚뗄춬튻쓪랢짺솽듎룼쏻,틔뗚1듎캪ힼ;ꋞ늻냼삨틲잰쳡쿂,붻틗헟뿉쓜뻛벯퓚쒳킩탅쾢짵훁쫇폫믹쳘뇰췢샭뛸룼쏻뗄퇹놾ꆣퟮ뫳뗃떽103룶퇹놾,웤뒡볛횵뫁늻쿠맘뗄탅쾢믲튥퇔짏뷸탐붻틗ꆣ쯼믡훐2000쓪59룶,2001쓪44룶ꋙꆣ퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏틽웰탅쾢풴뗄늻뫏샭엤훃뫍볛횵폫볛룱뗄쏷쿔욫샫,떱듳솿뗄붻틗헟뻛벯폚쒳튻3ꆡ퇐뺿랽램폫퇐뺿짨볆탅쾢늢랢짺벫뛋랴펦뗄쪱뫲뻍믡떼훂ꆰ퇲좺킧ꆡ쫂볾퇐뺿램펦ꆱꆣDeLong뗈(1990a)죏캪,쫐뎡훐듦퓚헽랴삡횤좯쫐뎡뛔폚탅쾢뗄볛룱랴펦뫍붻틗솿랴펦붻틗헟(positivefeedbacktrader),웤탐캪쳘뗣쫇뚼쫇평탂탅쾢뗄떽살틽랢뗄,붻틗솿뗄듳킡랴펳뛔볛룱맽뛈풤웚믲뛔볛룱ퟟ쫆뗄믽벫룺뷸(죧ힷ쇋춶헟볤쮽죋탅쾢닮틬뗄ힴ뿶,뛸막볛뗄뗷헻헇즱뗸),뷸탐뛌웚춶믺뗄횪쟩붻틗헟(informed맽돌퓲랴펦쇋춶헟룹뻝쮽죋탅쾢뷸탐붻틗뗄늩trader)믡샻폃헽랴삡붻틗헟뗄탐캪쳘헷듓훐믱샻?뷡맻ꆣ틲듋,횤좯뗄볛룱늨뚯랴펳쇋춶헟풤웚늢쪹볛룱늨뚯룼듳ꆣꆰ퇲좺킧펦ꆱ떼훂뗄붻틗뫍헽뗄ퟜ쳥랽쿲,뛸붻틗솿퓲랴펳쇋춶헟풤웚뗄룶랴삡붻틗헟뷸탐뗄붻틗뚼쫇뗤탍뗄퓫짹붻틗ꆣ횤쳥닮틬ꆣBeaver(1968)쳡돶막볛폫붻틗솿볬퇩뗄좯쫐뎡풽뷓뷼폐킧쫐뎡틢캶ퟅ뷰뗄엤훃킧싊풽훘튪쟸뇰퓚폚잰헟쫇쫐뎡풤웚뗄욽뻹뇤뚯,뛸뫳룟,퓫짹붻틗뗄듦퓚뇘좻퓬돉쫐뎡킧싊쿂붵,퓫짹헟랴펦쇋춶헟풤웚뇤뚯뗄헻쳥ꆣ쯻죏캪춶헟붻틗뗄퓶볓붫퓬돉맽뛈춶믺뫍쓚쒻붻틗,믡떼훂ퟔ짭뗄쓜솦폐룟뗍,좡뗃탅쾢뗄쟾뗀뿉쓜폐닮틬,헻룶쫐뎡뗄킧싊듳듳쿂붵,횤좯쫐뎡튲붫쪧좥볛틲뛸춶헟뗄쳘헷럖늼쫇폐닮틬뗄,탅쾢퓚춶횵랢쿖ꆢ풴엤훃뗄릦쓜,뛸듦퓚맽뛈퓫짹붻틗뗄헟훐뗄럖늼튲쫇폐닮틬뗄,틲듋늻뷶쫐뎡풤웚뇘쫐뎡훐튲룼죝틗돶쿖틬뎣뗄쫐뎡늨뚯ꆣ탫폐쯹뇤뚯,뛸쟒뮹뇘탫폐ퟣ릻뗄붻틗살쫍럅헢훐맺막쫐뗄룅쓮뎴ퟷ뻟폐쏷쿔뗄춶믺탔,헢훖풤웚뗄룄뇤ꆣ죧맻믡볆탅쾢좷쪵뻟폐탅쾢몬솿,튻뗣늻뷶뿉틔듓쫐펯싊ꆢ뮻쫖싊뫍뎬뛮쫕틦싊틬퓚헢튻탅쾢쫍럅쪱뗄붻틗솿뻍펦룃뇈웤쯻쪱뫲뎣뇭쿖살뾴,뮹뿉틔듓룅쓮뎴ퟷ뗄쾵춳탔럧쿕뗄룟ꆣ죧맻튻쿮탅쾢듳듳뗘룄뇤쇋쫐뎡풤웚,뻍믡틽돉틲뾴,룅쓮뎴ퟷ훐돊쿖뗄막욱쫐뎡ퟟ쫆뗄튻훂웰춶ퟩ뫏뗄뗷헻늢춨맽붻틗솿짏짽랴펳돶살ꆣ탔,쮵쏷막욱쫐뎡돶쿖쇋틔룅쓮캪랶캧뗄쾵춳탔쯹틔,놾컄춨맽쫂볾퇐뺿램,폃붻틗솿뗄뇤뮯살뫢럧쿕,룃쾵춳럧쿕폫쒳튻룅쓮룟뛈쿠맘ꆣ뫎돏펱솿춶헟뛔탅쾢랴펦뗄닮틬ꆣ(2001)럖컶쇋컒맺막쫐뗄ꆰ냥뿩ꆱ쿖쿳,쮵쏷ꆰ냥컒쏇폃훐횵뗷헻쒣탍살볆쯣뎬뎣붻틗솿,쯼뿩ꆱ쿖쿳쫇튻훖쳘쫢뗄쫐뎡춶믺쿖쿳,웤돉틲폫춶틔룷릫쮾럇릫룦웚쓚붻틗솿뗄훐횵ퟷ캪룃릫쮾뗄헟뗄맽뛈춶믺폐맘ꆣ듷풰뎿(2001)쮵쏷퓚훷솦헽뎣붻틗솿뗄맀볆,뛸웤뎬뎣붻틗솿퓲뚨틥캪릫ퟶ뗄맽돌훐,샻폃쳢닄훆퓬룅쓮,내ꆰ톡쏀늩?ꆱ쮾i퓚t죕뗄쪵볊붻틗솿폫웤퓚럇릫룦웚붻틗솿훐샭싛뷒쪾뗄맦퓲뇠횯쏀얮믃펰,폕랢ꆰ퇲좺ꆱ뛔믃횵뗄닮횵ꆣ펰닺짺럡뢻쿫쿳좺웰ힷ훰,헢쪱뫲룅쓮늻싛쫇췸붻틗솿뗄뫢솿횸뇪뇘탫뾼싇짏쫐릫쮾뗄엤싧룅쓮ꆢ믹틲룅쓮ꆢ룟뿆벼룅쓮뮹쫇늢릺룅쓮,뚼막ꆢ쯍뫬막틔벰릫믽뷰퓶막놾뗈쫂볾붫퓶볓쇷늻맽쫇볒뎴ퟷ뗄쳢닄,늢쟒퓋폃쳢닄쪹횮돉쇋춨막쫽솿,캪쪹돉붻쫽솿퓚잰뫳뻟폐뿉뇈탔,놾컄쳗샎퇲좺뗄쿝?ꆣ쯻쏇뗄퇐뺿횻쫇뛔룅쓮뎴ퟷ쿖쎻폐닉폃돉붻막쫽믲돉붻뷰뛮헢퇹뗄뻸뛔쫽횸쿳ퟷ돶쇋튻킩쮵쏷,늢쎻폐뛔막욱룼쏻쿖쿳훐쯹뇪,뛸쫇틔뮻쫖싊살뚨틥붻틗솿,뮻쫖싊캪떱죕붻쳘폐뗄룅쓮뎴ퟷ뷸탐퇐뺿ꆣ틗솿돽틔떱죕뗄쇷춨막쫽ꆣ헽뎣붻틗솿vi캪쒳튻막욱퓚룼쏻쫂볾잰1302ꆡ퇹놾뗄톡퓱쳬훁잰11쳬,벴(-130,-11)웚볤뗄죕뻹붻틗놾컄뗄쫂볾캪짏쫐릫쮾막욱룼쏻뗄릫룦,쫂솿ꆣ뎬뎣붻틗솿AVit캪i막욱퓚룼쏻쫂볾웚볤t1쪱1볾뒰뿚쫇틔릫룦죕캪훐탄뗄잰뫳웚볤ꆣ릫룦죕캪뿌뗄죕뎣붻틗솿폫헽뎣붻틗솿뗄닮횵ꆣ폚쫇폐쫂볾죕-11,죧맻릫룦죕떱쳬쎻폐붻틗,뻍틔쿂튻룶붻AV틗죕캪쫂볾죕ꆣit=V1it-(16Vitö120)ꆡꆣt=-130퇐뺿훐톡좡퇹놾뗄뇪ힼ죧쿂:ꋙ퓚짏몣횤좯n훖막욱t쪱뿌뗄욽뻹뎬뎣붻틗솿붻틗쯹뫍짮?횤좯붻틗쯹짏쫐뗄A막막욱;ꋚ릫룦쫂볾웚쓚쎻폐웤쯼훘듳쫂볾뗄릫룦;ꋛ쳞돽릫ꋙ쫽뻝살풴:맺첩낲짏쫐릫쮾붻틗쫽뻝뿢뫍짏쫐릫쮾톶췸()ꆣꆤ456ꆤ
짏쫐릫쮾막욱룼쏻쳘뗣뫍막쫐뗄룅쓮뎴ퟷꆪꆪ살ퟔA막뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꆪꆪ뗋붨욽ꆡ퓸ꆡ폂nAVAAVit=t6ꆡ,ni=1듓쪱뿌T1떽쪱뿌T뗄샛볆욽뻹뎬뎣붻틗솿TCAAVT=6AAVtꆡꆣt=ꆡ퇐뺿짨볆컒쏇냑퇹놾럖캪솽ퟩ:ꋙ룼쏻볲돆훐몬폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲샠쯆ퟖ퇛(볲돆ꆰ몬폐ퟩ);ꋚ룼쏻볲돆춼1ꆡ룼쏻릫쮾내ퟖ퇛춳볆뗄욽뻹뎬뎣붻틗솿뇈뷏훐늻몬폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲샠쯆ퟖ퇛(볲돆ꆰ늻몬폐ퟩꆱ),퓚막욱룼쏻릫룦랢늼쪱,컒쏇뛔뇈헢솽ퟩ퇹놾뗄붻틗솿랴펦,춬쪱뷸탐늻춬쓪뛈럖ퟩ뫍뛔뇈볬퇩,틔듋살뾼달컒맺막쫐룅쓮뎴ퟷ뗄돌뛈ꆣ톡좡2000쓪뛈뫍2001쓪뛈쫇틲캪,퓚헢솽룶쓪뛈훐뿆벼췸싧막막볛듓뚥럥뾪쪼놩뗸,럖컶헢솽룶쓪뛈뗄춶헟뗄탐캪쓜죃컒쏇룼쇋뷢춼2ꆡ룼쏻릫쮾내ퟖ퇛춳볆뗄샛볆뎬뎣붻틗솿뇈뷏컒맺막쫐뗄뎴ퟷ쿖ힴꆣ뇭1ꆡ룼쏻릫쮾볲돆훐내ퟖ퇛뗄춳볆뇭뗄탎쪽쿲췢랢늼,퓚폐킧뗄쫐뎡훐펦뛔헢킩탅(볒)쾢틑돤럖쿻뮯,룼쏻뗄쫂볾펦늻몬폐웤쯼캴쓜쓪ꆡ럝20002001뫏볆풤웚떽뗄탅쾢ꆣ떫퓚룼쏻쫂볾랢늼쪱,붻틗솿뗄몬ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲샠쯆ퟖ퇛301343쿔훸뗄틬뚯,쮵쏷춶헟뗄춶믺탔뫍쫐뎡훐뗄늻몬ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲샠쯆ퟖ퇛293160뎴ퟷ쿖쿳듦퓚ꆣ듓춼탎뫍럖컶훐뿉틔횪뗀,춶뫏볆5944103헟뛔폚룼쏻볲돆훐몬폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠ퟖ퇛막욱뗄붻쇏살풴:짏쫐릫쮾톶췸()틗죈쟩뇈늻듸듋샠ퟖ퇛뗄막욱튪룟,뛔(-1,4ꆡ룼쏻볲돆훐늻춬ퟖ퇛뗄쫐뎡랴펦럖컶1),(-3,3)뒰뿚뗄닮틬탔볬퇩,랢쿖닮틬뇈뷏춼쿔훸(볻뇭2)ꆣ춶헟뛔룼쏻볲돆훐1뫍춼2쫇퓚릫룦죕잰10쳬훁릫룦죕뫳15쳬,ꆰ몬폐ퟩꆱ뫍ꆰ늻몬ퟩꆱ뗄욽뻹뎬뎣붻틗뇭2ꆡ2000ꆫ2001쓪샛볆뎬뎣붻틗솿뗄닮틬탔볬퇩솿뫍샛볆뎬뎣붻틗솿뗄쟩뿶ꆣ춼1뫍춼2뇭쏷:뒰뿚öd퇹놾뻹횵뇪ힼ닮FP(F)TP(T)ꋙ뛔폚ꆰ몬폐ퟩꆱ뗄룼쏻릫룦,뎬뎣붻틗솿쟺쿟듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ듓릫룦잰뗚샠ퟖ퇛쳬뾪쪼뮺싽짏짽,릫룦잰뗚6(-1,1)쳬늻듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ,뎬뎣붻틗솿듯0154%,춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩(t=샠ퟖ퇛,p=01076),쇙뷼릫룦죕,뎬뎣붻틗솿톸쯙럅듳,떽릫룦죕캪횹,샛볆뎬뎣붻틗솿듯듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠ퟖ퇛(-3,3)늻듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ%,춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩(t=21785,p=01007),횮뫳뎬뎣붻틗솿쿂붵,떽릫룦죕뫳뗚5쳬,뎬뎣샠ퟖ퇛붻틗솿뾪쪼쟷폚욽뮺ꆣ듓붻틗솿뗄랴펦살뾴,룼힢:33뇭쪾퓚5%뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸,3뇭쪾퓚10%뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸ꆣ쏻탅쾢폐뿉쓜퓚릫룦잰뻍틑킹슶,쫐뎡짏듦퓚듸폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠ퟖ퇛뗄릫룦뗄랴펦돌뛈튪잿폚뛔쳡잰랴펦ꆣ뛸퓚릫룦죕뎬뎣붻틗솿뚼벱뻧퓶듳,늻듸듋샠ퟖ퇛릫쮾룼쏻릫룦뗄랴펦돌뛈,뿉쓜쮵쏷쫐뎡뛔룼쏻볲돆훐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠ퟖ퇛뗄쫂볾랴쫇틲캪,뷸죫20쫀볍90쓪듺틔뫳,틲쳘췸퓚좫펦럇뎣벤쇒ꆣꋚ뛔폚ꆰ늻몬폐ퟩꆱ뗄룼쏻릫룦,듓릫룦잰10쳬뎬뎣붻틗솿뮺싽짏짽,떫짏짽쯙쟲톸쏍랢햹,췸싧막훰붥돉캪쏀맺막쫐뗄탂맳,뛈뇈듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱퟖ퇛뗄싽,퓚릫룦죕뎬뎣붻틗솿쓉쮹듯뿋놩헇,1999쓪돵컒맺막쫐췸싧룅쓮막듯떽ퟮ듳,떫뇈ꆰ몬폐ퟩꆱ뗄뎬뎣붻틗솿킡,떽릫뾪쪼탋웰,뻝맺첩뻽낲횤좯퇐뺿쯹춳볆,뷘훁룦죕뫳뗚4쳬,뎬뎣붻틗솿뾪쪼쟷폚욽뮺ꆣ듓뎬2000쓪3퓂틑폐141볒짏쫐릫쮾헽쪽탻늼뷸뎣붻틗솿뗄랴펦살뾴죫뮥솪췸닺튵,2000쓪6퓂,퓲폐200볒짏쫐릫,늻맜쓄튻ퟩ,룼쏻릫룦뚼틽웰쇋뎬뎣붻틗솿,춬쪱,ꆰ늻몬ퟩꆱ뗄뎬뎣붻틗쮾ꆰ뒥췸ꆱ,쳘뇰쫇냥뿩죈쿂뗄춶믺뮯뗄쟣쿲룼솿튪킡폚ꆰ몬폐ퟩꆱ뗄뎬뎣붻틗솿ꆣ캪쿔훸,틔훁돶쿖쇋튻킩짏쫐릫쮾쿈잩쫰춶막욱룼쏻릫룦뻟폐튻뚨뗄탅쾢몬솿,헢폫킭틩퓙틔쒳훖뷨뿚췋돶뗄ꆰ볙춶ꆱ뫍폐맺쟩쳘쿖쪵훐컒쏇샭탔뗄췆샭쫇늻컇뫏뗄,퓬돉막욱즫뗄ꆰ쮮쓠+쫳뇪ꆱ뗄쿖쿳ꆣ2000쓪ퟛ틕막럝뗄룼쏻뗄풭틲죧뗚튻막뚫뗄룼뮻ꆢ닺훘ퟩꆢ훷펪췸싧죈붫뿆벼막죈뎱췆쿲벫훂,뮷놣룅쓮뫍짺튵컱뗄뇤룼뫍훘듳춶뗈,짏쫐릫쮾틑뛠듎랢컯훆튩룅쓮뗈룟뿆벼룅쓮막튲쯦ퟅ췸싧막죈룷늼릫룦,릫쮾헂돌뗄탞룄,냼삨릫쮾쏻돆뗄뇤룼,뚼튪춨맽막뚫듳믡뇭뻶춨맽,늢틔헽쪽릫룦쇬럧즧,늿럖짏쫐릫쮾튲틔룼쏻뗄뻙듫엤뫏뛾ꆤ457ꆤ
벶쫐뎡뗄뎴ퟷꆣ춶헟뛔헢킩뿆벼막뗄룺럧뎴볲돆훐몬폐뿆벼샠ퟖ퇛뗄샛볆뎬뎣붻틗솿튪쿔ퟷ,틔훁헢킩짏쫐릫쮾횻쫇퓚막욱룼쏻볲돆훐훸뛠폚2001쓪뗄,2000쓪춶헟뛔룼쏻볲돆쳥쿖ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲샠쯆ퟖ퇛,좴틽웰쇋춶헟잿쇒훐몬폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲샠쯆ퟖ퇛뗄랴펦돌뛈튪잿폚늻뗄ힷ엵몬폐듋샠ퟖ퇛뗄막욱룼쏻,2001쓪춶헟뛔룼,쮵쏷막쫐듦퓚퇏훘뗄룅쓮뎴ퟷ뫍춶헟잿쇒뗄춶믺탄샭ꆣ쏻볲돆훐쫇럱몬폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠ퟖ퇛뗄랴펦돌뛈늻춬쪱듦퓚쿔훸닮틬ꆣ,퓚2000쓪뛈,춶헟뛔듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠ퟖ퇛뗄막욱룼쏻랴펦돌뛈튪쿔훸잿폚뛔늻듸듋5ꆡ뷡싛샠ퟖ퇛뗄막욱룼쏻뗄랴펦돌뛈(볻뇭3),뛸퓚2001쓪뛈솽헟쎻폐쿔훸탔뗄닮틬막욱룼쏻릫룦늻몬폐캴쓜풤웚떽뗄탅쾢,(볻뇭4)ꆣ쇭췢,춶헟뛔2000쓪뛈룼쏻볲돆훐듸폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ뛸춶헟좴뛔막욱룼쏻릫룦ퟶ돶쇋랴펦,쮵쏷샠ퟖ퇛뗄릫룦뗄랴펦돌뛈튪잿폚뛔컒맺막쫐뗄컞킧탔뫍춶헟뗄춶믺탔ꆣ2000쓪2001쓪뛈룼쏻볲돆훐듸폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠ퟖ퇛뗄릫룦뗄랴펦돌뿆벼췸싧막탎쫆뷏뫃쪱,짏쫐릫쮾횻쫇퓚막욱뛈쏻돆짏볓짏ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲샠쯆뗄ퟖ퇛,춶헟뛔헢(볻뇭5)ꆣ뇭3ꆡ2000쓪뛈룼쏻릫쮾볲돆훐쫇럱몬ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠ퟖ퇛뗄샠룼쏻릫룦뗄랴펦돌뛈뻍잿폚뛔웤쯼뗄룼쏻릫샛볆뎬뎣붻틗솿뗄닮틬탔볬퇩룦뗄랴펦돌뛈,뛸퓚2001쓪뿆벼췸싧막탎쫆뷏뒰뿚ö닮쪱,춶헟뛔룼쏻볲돆훐쫇럱몬폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲d퇹놾뻹횵뇪ힼ닮FP(F)TP(T)듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠쯆뗄ퟖ퇛뗄룼쏻릫룦뗄랴펦돌뛈뻍늻듦퓚쿔샠ퟖ퇛훸뗄닮뇰ꆣ춬쪱,춶헟뛔2000쓪막욱룼쏻훐(-1,1)늻듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ몬폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲샠쯆ퟖ퇛릫룦뗄랴펦돌뛈튪잿폚샠ퟖ퇛뛔2001쓪룼쏻릫룦훐몬폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲샠쯆ퟖ퇛듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠ퟖ퇛0릫룦뗄랴펦돌뛈,헢킩뷸튻늽쮵쏷컒맺막쫐듦.(-3,3)늻듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ퓚뷏퇏훘뗄룅쓮뫍쳢닄뎴ퟷꆣ샠ퟖ퇛닎뾼컄쿗힢[1]듷풰뎿.막쫐엝쒭짺돉믺샭틔벰평듳뇧싛틽랢뗄짮닣:3뇭쪾퓚10%뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸ꆣ뇭4ꆡ2001쓪뛈룼쏻릫쮾볲돆훐쫇럱몬ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠ퟖ퇛뗄쮼뾼ꆪꆪ볦싛막쫐퓋탐얤쟺폫막쟩탷[J].뺭볃퇐뺿,2001(4):41ꆫ50샛볆뎬뎣붻틗솿뗄닮틬탔볬퇩[2]뫎돏펱.훐맺막쫐ꆰ냥뿩쿖쿳ꆱ럖컶[J].뺭볃퇐뺿,뒰뿚öd퇹놾뻹횵뇪ힼ닮FP(F)TP(T)2001(12):82ꆫ87듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ[3]BallR,샠ퟖ퇛[J].JournalofAccounting(-1,1)늻듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ,1968,6(2):159ꆫ178샠ퟖ퇛[4]DeBondW,듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠ퟖ퇛0Overreact?[J].JournalofFinance,1985,40(3):.(-3,3)793ꆫ805늻듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠ퟖ퇛[5]DeLongJB,[J].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1990,98뇭5ꆡ2000ꆢ2001솽룶쓪뛈듸ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠ퟖ퇛뗄(4):703ꆫ738룼쏻릫쮾샛볆뎬뎣붻틗솿뗄닮틬탔볬퇩[6]DeLongJB,ShleiferA,SummersLH,뒰뿚öd퇹놾ö쓪뻹횵뇪ힼ닮FP(F)TP(T)tiveFeedbackInvestmentStrategiesandDestabiliz220000ingRationalSpeculation[J].JournalofFinance,.(-1,1),45(2):379ꆫ[7]FrootKA,ScharfsteinDS,(-3,3):InformationalInefficienciesinaMarketwith힢:33뇭쪾퓚5%뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸ꆣShort2TermSpeculation[J].JournalofFinance,뇭2ꆫ뇭5쮵쏷쯦ퟅ쏀맺췸싧엝쒭뗄웆1992,47(4):461ꆫ485쏰,2000쓪뗗컒맺뗄룟뿆벼막튲ퟟ죫뗍마,막볛놩뗸,쯹틔,2001쓪룼쏻뗄볲돆훐몬폐ꆰ뿆ퟷ헟볲뷩:뗋붨욽(1974ꆫ),쓐,몺ퟥ,뢣붨쇺몣죋ꆣ뗧ퟓ벼ꆱ샠ퟖ퇛뗄뇈샽뇈뿆벼듳톧(돉뚼쫐ꆡ610054)맜샭톧풺늩쪿퇐뺿짺,헄훝2000쓪폐쏷쿔뗄쿂붵ꆣ퓚2001쓪뛈,쫐뎡뛔룼쏻볲돆훐몬폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ샠ퟖ쪦랶톧풺(뢣붨헄훝ꆡ363000)뺭볃쾵붲쪦ꆣ퇐뺿랽쿲캪퇛막욱뗄뎴ퟷ죈쟩붵뗍,춶헟뷏샤뺲뗘뛔듽쫐뎡폐킧탔뫍탐캪뷰죚ꆣ듋샠룼쏻릫룦,쯹틔쿠뛔폚2000쓪,춶헟퓚2001쓪뛔룼쏻볲돆훐몬폐ꆰ뿆벼ꆱ믲샠쯆ퟖ퇛막욱뗄붻틗죈쟩붵뗍,뇭쿖캪2000쓪뛔폚룼쏻ꆤ458ꆤ
