뗚11뻭뗚3웚2005쓪6퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ훐쓏듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡNo13IV.(SOCIALSCIENCEꆡꆡ)Jun.ꆡ2005쓚짺퓶뎤잰쳡쿂훐맺훐늿돇쫐뮯뷸돌슷뺶톡퓱샨뫍훐킡웳튵랢햹,돂쿾뫬(훐쓏듳톧짌톧풺,뫾쓏뎤즳,410008)햪튪:훐맺뷼쓪살뗄탨쟳늻ퟣ훷튪풭틲쫇훐맺돇쫐뮯폫릤튵뮯뗄뛾풪뷡릹,뛸킡돇헲뗄랢햹햽싔뻶뚨웤횻쓜퓚뗍쮮욽좡뗃뻹뫢ꆣ훐늿웰뗄슷뺶톡퓱펦쫇믽벫랢햹쟸폲훐탄돇쫐믲돇쫐좦,틔돇쫐뮯훐늿뗘쟸듸뚯닺튵뷡릹짽벶,돇쫐뮯튪힢틢튪쯘뻛벯릦쓜뗄붨솢ꆣ떫헢튻맽돌늻쓜평헾뢮듳맦쒣춶살췆뚯,럱퓲믡돶탂뗄뷡릹쪧뫢,돇쫐뮯뗄쓚짺퓶뎤뚯솦퓚폚럖릤췸싧뗄췪짆,헢튲쫇훐킡웳튵듦퓚뫍랢햹뗄믹뒡,틲듋퓚쓚짺퓶뎤잰쳡쿂,랢햹훐킡웳튵쫇훐늿돇쫐뮯뗄훘튪췆뚯솦솿ꆣ맘볼듊:훐늿웰;쓚짺퓶뎤;돇쫐뮯;훐킡웳튵훐춼럖샠뫅:컄쿗뇪쪶싫:A컄헂뇠뫅:167223104(2005)0320294206ꆡꆡ쒿잰훐맺틑뷸죫훘뮯릤튵뫍돇쫐뮯쪱웚,뺭볃튵뮯뫍돇쫐뮯뻍듦퓚쒳훖돌뛈뗄췑뷚ꆣ춬쪱헢훖뗄룟쯙퓶뎤퓚쿠떱뎤뗄튻뛎쪱웚쓚죔좻뿉돖탸,훐뷰쏜벯탍릤튵쳥쾵,쿞훆쇋뛔샍뚯솦뗄컼쫕,횻폐닉늿뗘쟸죧뫎뺡뿉쓜뗘쳸돶튻럅뻍죈ꆢ튻뻍쯀뗄헢좡돇쿧룴샫뗄듫쪩,닅쓜놣횤릤튵쳥쾵훐샍뚯솦릩튻뺭볃톭뮷,퓲탨뷢뻶풴풼쫸뫍쓚짺퓶뎤뚯솦늻탨뗄욽뫢,틲듋1978쓪잰훐맺돇쫐뮯풶실뫳폚릤튵ퟣ뗈컊쳢ꆣ틔췹뗄퓶뎤랽쪽틑죕쿔뇗뛋,ퟷ캪훐맺뮯쫇볆뮮뺭볃훐뗄샭탔톡퓱ꆣ뺭볃쳥훆룄룯뫳,쿧뗄훐늿뗘쟸,죧뫎퓚쓚짺퓶뎤뗄잰쳡쿂쪵쿖돇쫐뮯헲웳튵캪훷쳥뗄얩듥릤튵뮯뫍킡돇헲붨짨퓙듎틖훆뫍릤튵뮯뗄킭뗷랢햹,쪵쿖훐늿웰햽싔,뻍쏦쇙ퟅ쇋훐맺뗄돇쫐뮯뷸돌ꆣ튻룶훘튪뗄슷뺶톡퓱컊쳢ꆣ죧춬웳튵뗄랢햹,돇쫐뗄붨솢튲쫇붵뗍붻틗럑폃뗄ퟔ랢훈탲맽돌,릤튵뮯듸살쇋닺튵뷡릹뗄퇝뇤,튻ꆢꆡ뛾풪뷡릹떼훂뗄뗍쮮욽뻹뫢쿝?뇭쿖캪닺튵뷡릹뗄뛠풪뫍룟뛈럖릤,헢훖닺튵솴퇓뎤뫍럖릤짮뮯뗄뇪횾뻍쫇뗚뛾ꆢ죽닺튵뗄맦쒣뫍뇈튻맺믲뗘쟸뗄뺭볃퓶뎤튲뻍쫇릤튵뮯뫍돇쫐뮯훘뎬맽뗚튻닺튵,뛸뛾ꆢ죽닺튵뚼탨튪죋뿚뗄벯훐살뗄맽돌ꆣ뺭뗤뗄돇쫐뮯샭싛죏캪,돇쫐뮯뿉캪릤튵쳡릩샍뚯솦뫍쫐뎡,틲듋죋뿚뗄뻛벯닺짺돇쫐뫍평뮯쳡릩췢늿뺭볃킧펦뫍뻛벯킧펦,늢쳡릩룼캪맣삫듋뛸살뗄뻛벯킧펦쫇뺭볃랢햹췆뚯돇쫐뮯뗄쓚짺퓶뗄쫐뎡뎤뚯솦ꆣ퓚튪쯘ퟔ평쇷뚯뗄쫐뎡쿂,쫐뎡믡룹뻝돇,떫헢폐삵폚짧믡럖릤뗄짮뮯뫍닺튵솴퇓뎤[1]ꆣ컷랽랢듯맺볒릤튵뮯맽돌훐폫돇쫐뮯뷸돌쫇쫐쳡릩뗄붻틗킧싊쳡룟듸살뗄뇟볊쫕틦뫍죋뿚펵벷춳튻뗄듸살뗄뮷뺳뛱뮯뗈뇟볊돉놾뻹뫢쪱,뻶뚨돇쫐뗄ퟮ,랢듯맺볒퓚1820ꆫ1950쓪볤,릤튵뮯뫍돇쫐뮯뗄쿠맘쾵쫽듯떽폅맦쒣뫍닣듎뷡릹ꆣ0].997[2ꆣ좻뛸훐맺뗄돇쫐뮯뫍릤튵맽돌좴듦퓚ퟅ뛾풪뷡뺭볃랢햹샭싛훐맘폚돇쫐뮯쒣탍훷튪폐쇵틗쮹릹뫍췐듯싞솽훖뷘좻쿠랴뗄맛뗣,뛸훐맺뗄돇쫐뮯맽,솽헟랢햹늢늻킭뗷ꆣ훐맺뗄퓧웚릤튵뮯맽돌쫇뛔짧믡뢴퓓럖릤뗄쒣럂맽돌돌튻횱훍뫳폚릤튵뮯,훷튪폇싇폚죋뿚엓듳뗄맺볒,헢훖톸쯙릤튵뮯맽돌늻탨튪돇쫐뮯뗄춬늽퇝뷸,틲듋듓튻뾪쪼훐맺뗄릤붫돶쿖ꆰ돇쫐늡ꆱ,틲듋돇쫐뮯뫍얩듥쪣폠샍뚯솦죋쫕룥죕웚:20050520ퟷ헟볲뷩:샨(1972-),쓐,뎤즳죋,훐쓏듳톧붲쪦,맜샭톧늩쪿,훷튪퇐뺿랽쿲:쟸폲뺭볃,훐킡웳튵샭싛;돂쿾뫬(1963-),얮,뎤즳죋,훐쓏듳톧짌톧풺뷌쫚,늩쪿퇐뺿짺떼쪦,훷튪퇐뺿랽쿲:쟸폲뺭볃,훐킡웳튵샭싛.' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚3웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ샨,돂쿾뫬:쓚짺퓶뎤잰쳡쿂훐맺훐늿돇쫐뮯뷸돌슷뺶톡퓱뫍훐킡웳튵랢햹ꆤ295ꆤ뿚틆폫췐듯싞쒣탍벫캪컇뫏,좻뛸췐듯싞쒣탍뗄1200췲얩쏱캪돇쫐죋뿚ꆣ뻝쳬퓲뺭볃퇐뺿쯹맀헾닟몬틥쫇잿뗲얩튵늿쏅뫍얩듥랢햹뗄훘튪탔,맽쯣,듓얩듥틆떽돇헲뗄죋뿚뮹붫틔쎿쓪2000ꆫ럖잿뗷얩듥뻍튵뗄믽벫틢틥뫍뿉탐탔,쿞훆쇋얩듥4000췲죋퓶뎤,떽2010쓪돇쫐뮯쮮욽붫듯떽50%,쪣폠샍뚯솦쿲돇쫐틆ꆣ헢킩랴돇쫐뮯듫쪩퓬돉훐헽뎣돇쫐뮯쮮욽쯙싊뛔뺭볃퓶뎤릱쿗쫇2룶냙럖뗣맺퓚뺭볃랢햹맽돌훐퓢폶ꆰ뗍쮮욽뻹뫢쿝?ꆱ[3]ꆣ쿧ퟳ폒ꆣ뛸룹뻝램맺냙뢻쟚맀쯣,돇쫐죋뿚붫퓚2012헲웳튵뫍킡돇헲뗄늼뻖퓬돉풴엤훃뗄럖즢,웳튵쓪뎬맽얩듥듯떽틚,듯떽좫맺뗄57%ꆣ틲뻠샫풶뫍믹뒡짨쪩닮뛸컞램뷸탐럖릤킭ퟷ살붵뗍룹뻝쫀뷧돇쫐뮯뗄ꆰSꆱ탍쟺쿟맦싉(볻춼1),돇췢짺붻틗럑폃,퓬돉붻틗킧싊뗍쿂ꆣ얩듥뺭볃뫍죋쫐뮯뷸돌럖캪틔쿂3룶뷗뛎:돇쫐뮯싊평0쳡룟떽뿚늻쓜쪵쿖뿕볤짏뗄뻛벯,쿠펦뗄닺튵뷡릹뇘좻쫇25%캪돇쫐뮯뗄돵벶뷗뛎,튲쫇돇쫐뮯뗄뮺싽랢햹뗍쮮욽뗄,얩쏱쫕죫퓚돵웚룄맛뫳뫜쓑폐돖탸탔뗄뷗뛎;돇쫐뮯평25%쳡룟떽75%캪돇쫐뮯뗄훐벶뷗쳡룟,틖훆쇋맺쓚탨쟳ꆣ퇘몣뗄췢쿲탍볓릤튵틠쫜뛎,웤훐돇쫐뮯평25%쳡룟떽59%캪돇쫐뮯뗄볓쯙훆폚듋,쎿쓪뗄ꆰ쏱릤뎱ꆱ뗄횱뷓풭틲쫇퇘몣쫕죫믲랢햹뷗뛎;돇쫐뮯듯떽75%틔뫳캪췭웚뷗뛎,튲쫇돇믺믡룟폚훐컷늿,떫놾펦쿲뗍릤뗘쟸쇷뚯,헢튲쫐뮯뗄컈뚨뷗뛎ꆣ쒿잰훐맺뗄돇쫐뮯싊캪%,쫇퇘몣뗘쟸컼틽춶뗄풭틲,떫쓚뗘뗄뗍돇쫐뮯쮮잡뫃캻폚돇쫐뮯뗄볓쯙랢햹뷗뛎ꆣ욽컞램닺짺놾뫍탅쾢뗄뻛벯,퓬돉샍뚯쏜벯탍웳튵늢쎻폐쿲쓚뗘틆,펰쿬퇘몣뗘쟸뗄닺튵뷡릹짽벶,뗘쟸닮틬튲뷸튻늽삩듳ꆣ틲듋쿧헲웳튵뫍킡돇헲늼뻖횻쓜퓚붻틗킧싊뷏뗍쪱탎돉뻹뫢,컞램죝쓉룼뷸튻늽뗄닺튵뷡릹짽벶뫍럖릤짮뮯,럱퓲뻍퓢폶랢햹욿뺱뫍뷡릹쪧뫢ꆣ틲듋놾컄죏캪뷸죫20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살,컒맺뺭볃뎤웚뗍마퓋탐뫍믘짽컞솦,퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏쫇뗍쮮욽뻹뫢쿝?퓬돉뗄맺쓚탨쟳늻ퟣ뗄뷡맻ꆣ뛾ꆢꆡ훐늿돇쫐뮯뗀슷뗄톡퓱춼1ꆡ쫀뷧돇쫐뮯랢햹뗄ꆰSꆱ탍맦싉쟺쿟룹뻝잮쓉샯맘폚죋뻹쫕죫뫍릤튵뮯뷗뛎샭싛뗄펦뾴떽돇쫐뮯붫쫇훐맺캴살뫜뎤튻뛎쪱볤쓚늻뮮럖뿉뾹뻜뗄뺭볃랢햹맦싉ꆣ틲듋,캴살컒맺돇쫐뮯폐,훐맺틑뒦폚ힼ릤튵뮯쪱웚뗄뗚쯄뷗뛎,벴틑쫇릤튵뮯뗄잰특[4]ꆣ떫내잮쓉샯뗄뇪ힼ쒣탍ퟅ잿쇒뗄쓚퓚탨쟳ꆣ,훐맺릤튵뮯폫돇쫐뮯늢늻킭뗷ꆰ,룃쒣탍쿔쪾,릤튵뮯싊퓚뛸ퟷ캪컒맺훐늿쇹쪡,돇쫐뮯쮮욽룼쫇뗍폚좫맺욽뻹쮮욽,1991ꆫ2001쓪,좫맺돇쫐퓶뎤욽뻹쯙뛈%쪱,돇쫐뮯싊캪%ꆣ훐맺1971쓪릤튵뮯싊캪캪%,훐늿캪%ꆣ뻝2001쓪춳볆쫽뻝쿔%,돇쫐뮯싊캪%ꆣ1992쓪훐맺릤튵뮯싊폫1971쓪쿠떱,돇쫐뮯싊캪%ꆱ[5]ꆣ쫀뷧쪾,훐늿쎿1000췲죋뿚펵폐뗄돇쫐쫽캪룶,헢틸탐뗄랢햹놨룦튲횸돶,1995쓪훐맺죋뻹GNP튻횸뇪좫맺욽뻹캪,뮷늳몣ꆢ뎤죽뷇ꆢ훩죽뷇뗘쟸620쏀풪럖뇰캪ꆢꆢ;훐늿쎿냙췲욽랽릫샯펵폐172,돇쫐뮯쮮욽캪30%,춬쓪죋뻹GDP500ꆫ730쏀풪횮볤뗄11룶맺볒돇쫐뮯욽뻹쮮욽%ꆣ내룶돇쫐,뮷늳몣ꆢ뎤죽뷇ꆢ훩죽뷇뗘쟸럖뇰캪222ꆢPPP볆쯣훐맺죋뻹GNP캪2920쏀풪,춬쓪죋뻹364ꆢ289룶돇쫐,훐늿돇쫐쏜뛈쏷쿔욫뗍ꆣ듓1990GNP퓚2000ꆫ3800쏀풪(PPP)횮볤뗄19룶맺볒ꆫ2002쓪,좫맺돇쫐뮯쮮욽쓪욽뻹퓶뎤룶냙럖욽뻹돇쫐뮯쮮욽캪%ꆣ뷘횹2003쓪뗗,훐맺죔뗣,훐늿뗘쟸쓪욽뻹퓶뎤룶냙럖뗣ꆣ돇쫐뮯쮮폐7욽뷏룟뗄뫾놱쪡(%)폫돇쫐뮯쮮욽ퟮ뗍뗄뫓.7틚뗄쿧듥죋뿚,돇쫐죋뿚햼ퟜ죋뿚뗄뇈샽뷶캪%,훐맺쫐뎤킭믡ퟩ횯뇠뗄ꆶ2001-2002쓏쪡(%),닮뻠듯떽룶냙럖뗣ꆣ훐맺돇쫐랢햹놨룦ꆷ풤닢,떽2050쓪,훐맺돇쫐죋뿚훐맺쿖폐뗄돇쫐랢햹맦뮮쫇ꆰ뿘훆듳돇쫐맦쒣,ퟜ솿붫듯떽10훁11틚,벴듓쿖퓚웰뫏샭랢햹훐뗈돇쫐뫍킡돇쫐,믽벫랢햹킡돇헲ꆱ,잰,훐맺쎿쓪붫폐쏦틑럖컶헢훖맦뮮붫쪹훐맺뺭볃쿝죫ꆰ뗍쮮욽뻹뫢' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆤ296ꆤ훐쓏듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚11뻭쿝?ꆱꆣ쪷뷺뒨뫍엋쪿풶뇈뷏쇋맺쓚췢돇쫐뇟뷧뫍돶쿖맽죈뗄쫆춷,폐죋죏캪쫇릤튵뮯맽돌볓뿬쯹훂ꆣ맦쒣뗄퇐뺿뫳횸돶,틔췹죏캪돇쫐맦쒣퓶뎤뛸떼훂떫튦횦훙춨맽뛔훐맺뷼20쓪살GDP퓶뎤싊ꆢ춶컞킧싊뗄맛뗣늢쎻폐뾼싇헾뢮맙풱뗄ퟔ샻탐캪,퓚퓶뎤싊뫍쿻럑퓶뎤싊뗄퇐뺿,뗃돶뷼벸쓪뗄뺭볃퓶뾼싇맙풱뗄ퟔ샻탐캪쟒맙풱헆컕ퟅ엤훃풴좨솦뛸뎤뚯솦훷튪풴ퟔ헾뢮훷떼춶쿂뗄돇쫐뮯뷸돌볓뿬붨솢뗄뗘쟸쒣탍쿔쪾,ퟔ샻뗄헾뢮믡톡퓱욫킡뗄돇뗄뷡싛[7]ꆣ뾼싇떽훐맺돇쫐뮯실뫳폚릤튵뮯,쓇헢쫐맦쒣,쟒늻풸킡돇헲뫏늢,뻜뻸릲쿭믹뒡짨쪩뫍훖돇쫐뮯뷸돌볓뿬펦쓜폅뮯뺭볃뷡릹,떫헢훖췢짺ꆰ뻛벯킧펦ꆱ,듓뛸떼훂짧믡뢣샻뗄즥쪧[6]ꆣ퓶뎤캪뫎믡떼훂뷡릹뷸튻늽쪧뫢,뛸틽랢훐퇫헾뢮듓돇쫐뮯뷸돌뗄쓚퓚맦싉뫍쫀뷧랢햹쟷쫆살뗄뫪맛뗷뿘듫쪩돶첨,헢뻍탨튪뾼달췢짺퓶뎤뗄쪵뾴,훐탄돇쫐뫍돇쫐좦쓜웰떽튻룶뗘쟸훐탄뗄ퟷ폃,볊킧맻ꆣ늢쟒듳돇쫐뗄뿬쯙랢햹쫇룷맺돇쫐뮯뷸돌뗄릲춬쳘춨맽뛔풭닄쇏폫뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쪵횤퇐뺿랢쿖,룖헷,틔죋뿚ꆢ뺭볃뫍컄뮯룟뛈벯풼뗄듳돇쫐,웤뻛벯쳺쿻럑퓶뎤싊듓2001쓪뾪쪼솬탸죽쓪엊짽,떫GDP킧펦뿉틔캪릤튵뮯붵뗍붻틗돉놾,듙뷸럖릤짮뮯,췪뗄퓶뎤죔놣돖퓚7%ꆫ8%ꆣ뛸만뚨닺춶퓶뎤싊짆닺튵솴,퓲쓜뷸튻늽컼쫕얩듥쪣폠샍뚯솦,헢뛔듸퓲폫풭닄쇏뗄쿻럑퓶뎤싊횮볤뗄쿠맘탔튪쏷쿔뗃뚯쟸폲뺭볃랢햹,쳘뇰쫇뛔얩듥뺭볃퓶뎤뫍닺튵뷡뛠,룖쳺뗄쿻럑퓶뎤싊벸뫵뫍만뚨닺춶싊놣돖릹뗷헻뚼폐ퟅ훘튪틢틥ꆣ놾컄죏캪,쒿잰듳볒쯹맘튻훂,횤쏷만뚨닺춶싊쫇훐맺뺭볃뗄훷튪췢짺힢뗄ꆰ훐늿첣쿝ꆱ,퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏쫇평폚훐늿뗘쟸좱퓶뎤틲쯘ꆣ짙뻟폐뺭볃웴뚯ퟷ폃뗄훐탄돇쫐,뛸퓢폶ꆰ뗍쮮욽뻹퓚늻뾼싇벼쫵뷸늽뗄쟩뿶쿂,뺭볃퓶뎤풴폚뫢ꆱ쿝?,퓬돉뗘쟸뺭볃랢햹뗄늻욽뫢ꆣ놾듦솿(K)뗄퓶볓뫍샍뚯솦춶죫(L)뗄퓶볓ꆣ헢솽틲듋뛔튪쪵쿖ꆰ훐늿웰ꆱ햽싔뗄훐늿쇹쪡쫐뛸쿮튪쯘춶죫뗄퓶볓,뇘좻떼훂뺭볃뗄퓶뎤ꆣ내ퟮ볲퇔떥뗄C-D몯쫽맘쾵,Y=AKꛁL1-ꛁ,만뚨닺춶,웰횮슷퓚폚틔뿬쯙뛸붡뾵뗄쯙뛈붨솢웰쟸폲훐탄돇쫐믲돇쫐좦,웰떽퓚룃쟸폲훐뗄훐탄럸짤뫍뗄퓶볓틢캶ퟅ놾듦솿(K)퓶볓,뛸쟒훐맺헢벸쓪뺭볃횧훹ퟷ폃ꆣ훐탄돇쫐뗄훘튪탔퓚폚ꆰ쫐ꆱ뛸늻퓚뗄만뚨닺춶싊쫇튻횱퓚퓶볓,떫뺭볃(GDP)뗄폚ꆰ돇ꆱ,벴훐탄돇쫐뗄릦쓜붨짨,죧튪쯘뻛벯릦쓜뗄퓶뎤좴믹놾놣돖컈뚨,쇵뷰좫뫍췵듳폂뛔1997쓪틔훘튪탔튪듳폚돇쫐뗄맦쒣삩헅ꆣ쇭췢,돇쫐맦쒣풽살훐맺뺭볃퓶뎤뗄춳볆뷡맻쿔쪾,쪵볊GDP뗄욽뻹듳퓶뎤싊캪%,ퟮ룟쯙뛈캪%,ퟮ뗍쯙뛈캪,뻍틢캶ퟅ폃뮧믹쫽풽듳,죕뎣샻폃욵뛈뷏짙뗄럾컱튵ꆢ뷏쳘쫢뗄럾컱튵횻폐퓚듳돇쫐훐닅쓜뗃틔짺%,늨뚯뇪ힼ닮뷶캪%[8]ꆣ뺭볃퓶뎤캧죆듦ꆣ틲듋,횻폐퓚듳돇쫐,쏅샠웫좫ꆢ룟뛈엤쳗ꆢ럖릤ퟅ8%ퟳ폒컈뚨뗘엇뮲ꆣ룹뻝짏쫶몯쫽맘쾵,퓚Y쾸훂ꆢ릦쓜쏷컺뗄럾컱닺튵닅믡폐맣삫뗄짺듦뫍랢퓶뎤싊늻뇤쪱,뻍폐뿉쓜쫇랢짺놾쳦듺,샍뚯솦춶햹뿕볤ꆣ뛔폚돇쫐뮯쮮욽짐뗍뗄훐늿뗘쟸뛸퇔,쒿죫복짙,떫퓚훐맺헢퇹죋뿚훚뛠뗄맺볒쿔좻쫇럇샭잰듳솦랢햹킡돇헲,퓲틲쎻폐맦쒣킧틦탔뗄,헾뢮쎿쓪훆뚨뗄GDP퓶뎤싊7%틔짏뗄쒿뇪,뛸컞램랢햹룟뛈짧믡뮯럖릤뗄뗚죽닺튵,컼쫕얩듥틆샍뚯솦ꆣ뻍쫇뺡뿉쓜퓶볓뻍튵죋뿚,놣돖뻍튵싊뗄컈뚨ꆣ훐잮쓉샯돆,뺭볃랢햹뻍쫇뺭볃뷡릹룄뇤뗄맽돌ꆣ맺뗄맺쟩뻶뚨쇋뺭볃퓶뎤훐샍뚯춶죫(L)뗄퓶볓쫇퓚훐맺틑믹놾붨솢웰뷏췪헻뗄릤튵쳥쾵잰쳡쿂,볓뇘좻톡퓱,헢뻍틢캶ퟅK뗄닺돶싊퓚붵뗍ꆣ뿬돇쫐뮯뷸돌튲뻍틢캶ퟅ뺭볃뷡릹뗄룄뇤,떫뺭볃퓚뺭볃룄룯뫳,쳘뇰쫇뷼벸쓪,GDP뗄퓶뎤돉맙풱뗄ퟔ샻탐캪뫍ꆰ뗍쮮욽뻹뫢ꆱ쿝?돉캪돇쫐뮯뗄캪뾼달룷벶헾뢮헾벨뗄펲횸뇪뫳,룷벶헾뢮틀뾿닆욿뺱헾늦뿮엤횮틔틸탐듻뿮,듳솿춶췁쒾릤돌쿮쒿,틔,훐늿뿬쯙붨솢쟸폲훐탄돇쫐튲뻍쏦쇙ퟅ헾뢮훷떼춶뗄췢솦췆뚯뫍쫐뎡훷떼쓚짺퓶뎤뗄슷뺶톡펪퓬탨쟳,볤뷓뗘췆뚯뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ헢훖잿훆탔퓶뎤퓱컊쳢ꆣ틽훂뗄믹뒡짨쪩뫍랿뗘닺춶쫇폫릤튵뮯쿠맘탔늻듳뗄돇쫐뮯맽돌,ퟮ횱뷓뗄뿉맛달뇤솿쫇만뚨닺죽ꆢꆡ췢짺잿훆퓶뎤뗄뇗뛋춶,웤퓚뺭볃퓶뎤훐뗄릱쿗싊햼쿠떱듳뗄뇈훘ꆣ돇쫐뮯뛔릤튵뮯뗄듙뷸폐삵폚짧믡럖릤뗄짮뮯,탨튪쿠맘뗄뗚죽닺튵랢햹살컼쫕얩듥샍뚯솦늢쳡릩릤퓚돖탸벸쓪뗄춨믵뷴쯵,헾뢮틔믽벫닆헾헾닟튵욷뗄쫐뎡ꆣ떫평폚훐맺뺭볃잿훆퓶뎤믺훆,룷벶듌벤쫐뎡탨쟳뫳,듓2003쓪뾪쪼훐맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤폖헾뢮퓚춶뗄톡퓱짏훷튪뾼싇뛌웚쓚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚3웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ샨,돂쿾뫬:쓚짺퓶뎤잰쳡쿂훐맺훐늿돇쫐뮯뷸돌슷뺶톡퓱뫍훐킡웳튵랢햹ꆤ297ꆤ듙뷸ퟷ폃믲룷훖탎쿳릤돌,떱헾뢮듳맦쒣춶폚믹튵,틔췆뚯돖탸돇쫐뮯?훐늿뗘쟸쫇럱튪뎬뎣맦랢뒡짨쪩폫랿뗘닺죧듳솿뗄뾪랢쟸붨짨폫돇쫐삩붨,햹튻엺듳웳튵뫍듳벯췅?Simon뫍Nardinelli뛔웤룟춶싊뗄훷튪ퟷ폃퓚폚캬돖뺭볃컈뚨뗄퓶뎤186ꆫ1961쓪볤튻ퟩ펢맺돇쫐쫽뻝뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿뇭쏷,싊,좴늻쓜듸뚯뛠짙쿻럑탨쟳ꆣ틲듋헾뢮훷떼뗄돇웳튵뗄듳킡뫍돇쫐뗄듳킡늻듦퓚헽쿠맘맘쾵[9]ꆣ쫐뮯뷸돌늢늻쓜룸릤튵뮯쳡릩뛠듳뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃ꆣ듓춼2뿉틔뾴돶돇쫐뮯룸릤튵뮯듸살튵뮯돌췢짺잿훆퓶뎤떼훂룷뺭볃뮷뷚훐볛룱뒫떼믺훆뛈쳡룟뫍럖릤쾸뮯뗄펰쿬늢틽웰ퟩ횯뷡릹뗄뇤잨ꆣ틔벰춶삩헅ꆪ릩룸삩헅ꆪ쿻럑삩헅톭뮷돶쿖뛏웳튵뇟뷧뗄뷧뚨퓚폚췢짺붻틗럑폃뫍쓚짺붻틗럑폃슷ꆣ뺭볃뗄붡뾵퓶뎤탨튪뫏솦,떥쿲뛈뗄췆뚯벫틗뗄뻹뫢,틲돇쫐뗄뻛벯킧펦폐샻폚럖릤짮뮯,럖릤춨쪹뺭볃퓶뎤뗄늨뚯탔퓶볓,췢짺퓶뎤뗄돇쫐뮯뷸돌맽닺욷뫍럾컱쫐뎡퓚웳튵횮볤랢햹,쯦붻틗킧싊뗄뻍쫇튻훖떥쿲뛈솦,횻닺짺뛔풭닄쇏쓜풴뗄탨쟳,뛸쳡룟,퓲쎿룶웳튵풽살풽튵뮯,늻춬튵뗄웳튵훖뛔훆퓬튵뗄듌벤쿠뛔캢죵,컞램듸뚯뫍돐퓘릤튵뮯ꆣ샠퓶볓,웳튵맦쒣쯵킡,뛸짺닺솦짏짽ꆣ틲듋돇쫐뮯룼훘튪뗄쫇,헢퇹뗄돇쫐뮯늻떫늻쓜룄짆닺튵뷡릹틔벰붨솢훐탄돇쫐믲돇쫐좦폫훐킡웳튵뗄랢햹늢늻뗄쿖ힴ,랴뛸잿뮯쇋쒿잰뗄뷡릹탔뇗늡ꆣ헢뻍틢캶쎬뛜,쟒솽헟듦퓚ퟅ쿠뮥듙뷸ퟷ폃ꆣ헢훷튪뇭쿖퓚:ퟅ훐늿뗘쟸돇쫐뮯횻쓜톡퓱쓚짺퓶뎤춾뺶,떫헢훖(1)돇쫐뮯캪훐킡웳튵쳡릩쫐뎡뫍탨쟳ꆣ듓릤쓚짺퓶뎤뚯솦풴ퟔ뫎뒦?튵뮯뫍돇쫐뮯뗄랢햹샺돌살뾴,퓚릤튵뮯돵웚,릤튵랢햹쯹탎돉뗄뻛벯킧펦쪹릤튵뮯뛔돇헲뮯닺짺횱뷓쯄ꆢꆡ돇쫐뮯폫훐킡웳튵랢햹뫍뷏듳뗄듸뚯ퟷ폃,뛸떱릤튵뮯뷓뷼뫍뷸죫훐웚뷗뛎횮뫳,닺튵뷡릹뇤뮯뫍쿻럑뷡릹짽벶뗄ퟷ폃뎬맽훐늿튪쪵쿖ꆰ웰ꆱ쇋뻛벯킧펦뗄ퟷ폃,돇쫐뮯뗄퇝뷸늻퓙훷튪뇭쿖캪,붨솢훐탄돇쫐믲돇쫐좦,잰쏦틑싛횤췢짺잿훆탔뗄췆뷸돇쫐믡떼훂컞킧싊릤튵뇈훘짏짽뗄듸뚯,뛸룼뛠뗘뇭쿖캪럾컱탐튵뇈,뛸쓚짺퓶뎤틢캶평쫐뎡웰훷떼ퟷ폃,쓇쎴쫐뎡뗄캢맛훘짏짽뗄삭뚯ꆣ돇쫐뮯뿉틔뒴퓬돶돖뻃퓶뎤뗄맺쓚훷쳥ꆪꆪꆪ웳튵퓚돇쫐뮯뷸돌훐폖쫇죧뫎퇝뷸뗄,쫇탨쟳,얩듥죋뿚뇤캪돇쫐죋뿚,웤쿻럑평ퟔ룸탔쿻럑럱틢캶ퟅ튪500잿횮샠뗄듳웳튵살훷떼돇쫐뗄닺햼뷏듳뇈훘뮯캪췪좫짌욷탔쿻럑;돇쫐뻓쏱쓜릻춼2ꆡ돇쫐뮯뫍릤튵뮯뗄뮥뚯' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆤ298ꆤ훐쓏듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚11뻭믱뗃뇈얩쏱룼룟뗄쫕죫,틲뛸뿉틔폐룼뛠뗄쿻럑횧틔훐킡웳튵캪훷,뛸몫맺퓲쫇듳벯췅훷떼ꆣ퓚20쫀돶,돇쫐뻓쏱뗄쿻럑뮷뺳뇈얩쏱폅풽,쿻럑쇬폲뇈얩볍80쓪듺,몫맺잰쪮듳웳튵뗄닺횵햼몫맺GDP뗄쏱룼맣ꆣ춬쪱,죋뿚뫍뺭볃믮뚯퓚돇쫐벯훐,뮹뒴퓬75%,뛸첨췥뗄ퟮ듳뗄냋듳웳튵뗄닺횵뷶캪좫뗘쟸돶뛔돇쫐믹뒡짨쪩뗄탨쟳ꆣ틖훆맺쓚탨쟳뗄ꆰ뗍쮮GDP뗄%,몫맺웳튵욽뻹맍풱쫽캪죋,첨욽뻹뫢ꆱ횻폐퓚돇쫐뷸돌훐닅쓜춻웆ꆣ췥퓲캪죋ꆣ늻춬뗄닺튵ퟩ횯뷡릹뗖폹럧쿕뗄(2)훐킡웳튵쳡릩얩듥죋뿚돇쫐뮯뗄뻍튵뿕쓜솦듳쿠뺶춥,1997쓪퇇훞뷰죚캣믺뫳,몫맺죋뻹볤ꆣ훐맺뗄쳘뗣퓚폚잰쏦틑뷸탐쇋쿠떱뎤웚뗄릤튵GDP복짙튻냫,1998쓪캪쏷쿔뢺퓶뎤,뛸첨췥뗄뮯맽돌,듳탍웳튵평폚벼쫵늻뛏짽벶뫍놾폐믺릹퓶뎤쯙뛈뷶뗍폚1997쓪ꆣ웤풭틲퓚폚첨췥뗄훐킡돉훰늽쳡룟,뻍튵믺믡뗄퓶뎤싊뫜뗍,뛔뗍벼쫵쓜솦웳튵탎돉쇋췪헻뗄럖릤췸싧,몭룇룷닺튵쇬폲,쿠뮥뗄얩듥틆샍뚯솦벸뫵늻듦퓚탨쟳,뗚죽닺튵뗄샍횮볤룟뛈럖릤킭ퟷ,쪹떥룶뫜죵뗄훐킡웳튵,헻쳥짏뚯쏜벯탍훐킡웳튵붫캪헢늿럖틆샍뚯솦쳡릩맣듳좴폐ퟅ뫜잿뗄뾹럧쿕쓜솦ꆣ뗄뻍튵믺믡ꆣ퓚돇쫐뮯맽돌훐,죋뿚뗄뻛벯뫍쯦횮돇쫐뗄탋웰뫍웳튵뗄닺짺뚼쫇붵뗍뺭볃믮뚯훐뛸살뗄뛔컄뮯ꆢ폩샖ꆢ닍틻쇣쫛뗈탨쟳캪뗚죽닺튵뗄붻틗럑폃뗄ퟩ횯탎쪽,퓚떱뷱훐맺뗄쿖쪵쟩뿶쿂,죴놬랢퓶뎤쳡릩쇋튻룶쇙뷧뗣ꆣ퓚헢킩탐튵훐훐킡웳튻솽볒듳웳튵횧독ퟅ쟸폲훐탄돇쫐뗄훷떼닺튵,퓲튵놻횤쏷쫇ퟮ폐킧싊뗄닺튵ퟩ횯,웤붡뾵랢햹폖캪돇쫐뫍웳튵퓚쒳킩릦쓜짏믡훘뢴,떼훂풴엤훃뗄돇쫐뮯쳡릩쇋돖탸뚯솦ꆣ컞킧싊ꆣ뛸훐킡웳튵퓲뿉샻폃돇쫐뻛벯킧펦뗄췢늿(3)돇쫐뮯캪훐늿훐킡웳튵닺튵짽벶쳡릩쇋믺뺭볃탔,붨솢췪짆뗄럖릤췸싧,틔웳튵좺뗄탎쪽믱뗃믡ꆣ훐늿뗘쟸틲뺭볃잷랢듯,훐킡웳튵뛠틔쿧헲웳뇈듳웳튵룟뗃뛠뗄맦쒣킧틦ꆣ튵캪훷,헢늿럖쿧헲웳튵퓚랢햹맽돌훐,쫜훆폚ꆰ뗍쮮욽뻹뫢ꆱ쿝?ꆣ훐늿퓚쎻폐붨솢웰쓜뻛벯탅쾢ꆢ컥ꆢꆡ뷡싛놾뫍죋닅뗄훐탄돇쫐횮잰,퇘몣놾뫍닺튵뻍늻믡쿲훐늿틆,죴붨솢웰훐탄돇쫐,늢럅쯉뛔쿧헲웳튵뗄톡횷쿞훆,훐늿뗘쟸뗄뗍돉놾폅쫆뇘좻믡컼틽퇘볓뿬돇쫐뮯뷸돌쫇훐늿뗘쟸ퟟ돶ꆰ뗍쮮욽뻹뫢ꆱ몣뗄놾뫍닺튵쿲룃뗘쟸틆,훐늿뗄훐킡웳튵붫쿝?뗄뇘평횮슷,떫헾뢮틔듳맦쒣뗄믹붨춶,틔뗃떽뷰춶죫뫍닺튵짽벶뗄믺폶,뷸뛸듙뷸쯹퓚쟸ꆰ컯뮯ꆱ돇쫐뗄췢짺탔잿훆퓶뎤좴늻뿉탐ꆣ퓚뿉돖탸폲뗄랢햹,훐늿뫍퇘몣뗄뗘쟸닮틬튲붫쯦횮쯵킡ꆣ랢햹뫍뫪맛뗷뿘뗄놳뺰쿂,훐늿뗘쟸뗄훐탄돇쫐뮯햽싔늻퓚폚탞십슷,붨맣뎡뫍쿲췢좦뗘ꆣ뛸펦믽벫(4)훐킡웳튵쓜폅뮯돇쫐닺튵뷡릹,붵뗍훜웚탔늨뚯ꆣퟷ캪튻룶쟸폲훐탄돇쫐죴훷떼닺튵캪튻솽샻폃탅쾢뮯뗄폅쫆,틲뗘훆틋ퟩ붨훐탄돇쫐좦ꆣ퓚볒듳웳튵쯹뿘훆,뺭볃랢햹맽돌훐늻뿉뇜쏢뗄붫닺돇쫐좦뗄퇝뷸맽돌훐,떱룷돇쫐평쿠뛔럢뇕캪뮥짺뷏듳뗄늨뚯,듓뫪맛뮷뺳뛸퇔,ퟷ캪튻룶탂탋볓쿠뾪럅쪱,컯훊ꆢ탅쾢붻뮻볓뿬붫쪹붻틗킧싊쳡룟ꆣ맬뗄쫐뎡,훐맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤볈쫇튻룶뺭볃훜웚뫍뷡뺭볃뗄랢햹쫇붻틗킧싊쳡룟뗄맽돌,훐탄돇쫐뗄튪릹뗷헻늢듦뗄맽돌,폖쫇튻룶탐헾룉풤뫍쫐뎡쓚짺쯘뻛벯릦쓜잿뮯뫳,훐킡웳튵붫믱뗃솼뫃뗄랢햹믺뗄ퟛ뫏펰쿬쳥ꆣ퓚쫐뎡뮯뫍쳥훆룄룯짐캴떽캻뗄쟩폶,폫돇쫐뮯탎돉솼탔뮥뚯,훐늿뗘쟸뗄뺭볃랢햹붫뿶쿂내돇쫐뮯ꆪ럖릤짮뮯ꆪ훐킡웳튵랢햹ꆢ닺튵짽벶ꆪ,쳥훆좱쿝뫍ퟔ랢훈탲뗄늩?붫돖탸쿂좥,듓뛸튲뻍뻶뚨쇋춶ퟜ쫇쿝죫늻ퟣ뫍맽뛈뗄늻솼톭뮷돇쫐뮯쮮욽쳡룟뗄슷뺶ퟟ쿲쓚짺퓶뎤뗄뗀슷ꆣ훐,틲듋,튻럅뻍죈,튻뻍쯀뗄늨뚯랴뢴튲뻍돉캪훐맺뺭볃뗄쳘폐쿖쿳ꆣ뛸퓚캢맛뮷뺳짏,뺭볃뗄쓚닎뾼컄쿗:퓚훜웚뫍웳튵퓚랢햹맽돌훐뗄럧쿕,뚼뿉쓜쪹웳튵[1]ꆡ퇮킡뾭,헅폀짺.탂탋맅뗤뺭볃톧뫍뎬뇟볊럖컶[M].놱뺩:톸쯙쮥냜,웤쯹퓚뗄돇쫐뗄뺭볃랢햹뻍뿉쓜복싽짵훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧,2000.훁훐횹ꆣ퓚헢튻뗣짏첨췥뗘쟸뫍몫맺뗄랢햹맽돌폐[2]ꆡ쟱쿾뮪.싛쫀뷧훆퓬튵틆폫훐맺뺭볃퓶뎤[D].놱뺩:놱뺩뫜쿖쪵뗄뷨본틢틥ꆣ첨췥뫍몫맺폐탭뛠쿠쯆횮뒦쪦랶듳톧늩쪿싛컄,2003.,죧쿠춬뗄풴?뢳[3]ꆡ췵톧헦,맹붣탛.쇵틗쮹쒣탍폫췐듯싞쒣탍뗄럱뚨횮럱,ퟔ좻풴좱랦떫펵폐룟쯘훊뗄샍뚯솦뚨ꆪꆪꆪ돇쫐뮯햽싔뗄샭싛믘맋폫쿖쪵쮼뾼[J/OL].http://,쓚늿쫐뎡킡뛸튪랢햹췢쿲탍뺭볃,짧믡죋컄,20030910.뮷뺳튲쿠춬,뚼쫜죥볒펰쿬ꆣ떫늻춬횮뒦퓚폚,첨췥[4]ꆡH.잮쓉샯,뗈.릤튵뮯폫뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뇈뷏퇐뺿[M].짏몣:짏' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
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