궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ Journal of Risk Management Nov. 2003 -410 ∗쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꅂ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결꒧곣ꡳ Relationship Banking, Corporate Governance and Risk-taking Behavior for Banks?∗∗뗕럧꧷ (Andy Chein) 멋₭? ꫱꙾꣓Ꙣ쑶ꪧ꯹쓲ꕛ럅ꪺꙐ껉ꅁ걍믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꪺ륏꧱ꓱ뉶덶꙾썫ꩀꅁꛓ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꕩ꣏믈ꛦꙢ꧱듚륌땻꒤ꟳ녋꓁ꪺ뫊럾귉듚ꯈꓡꅁ듁룻ꚳ껄ꪺ놱꣮믈ꛦꪺ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꅁ걇ꖻ곣ꡳꓥꑄ끷맯ꑇ뚡ꪺ쏶ꭙ뙩ꛦ놴끑ꅁꕈ셁룑쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ맯믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꪺ맪뷨뱶암ꅃꗑ꧳꒽ꕱꩶ뉺맯믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꪺꛦ결ꅁꗧꚳ곛럭ꪺ룠쓀꧊ꅁ걇맯ꚹ쒳썄ꪺ뙩ꑀꡂ꓀꩒ꅁꗧꚳ꣤궫굮꧊ꅃꚹꕾꅁꖻ곣ꡳ녎덗볒뭐멡꛴듁뚡떥꣤ꕌ곛쏶멣궱ꑀ꣖꿇ꑊꅁꕈ듁ꚳꟳ결ꞹ뻣뭐Ꙩ궱뮪ꪺ놴끑ꅃ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ걍쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ땻ꯗꪺꦹ꣓깡볆맯륏꧱ꓱ뉶꣣ꚳ엣뗛ꖿꙖꪺ뱶암ꅃ 쏶쇤뗼ꅇ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꅂ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺ꅂ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꅃ Abstract In recent years, the nonperforming loan ratio to reflect bank risk-taking behavior is increasing within the environment of intensive competition. The relationship banking has the ability to closely monitor firm management over the course of the loan. This research tries to study the impact of relationship banking upon bank risk-taking behavior. Another important factor to explain bank risk-taking behavior is the corporate governance. Beside, we add some other items in this study to make the outcome more complete and proliferating. The empirical results provide evidence that the relation between multi-bank borrowing index and nonperforming loan ratio is positive and significant. Keywords: Relationship Banking, Corporate Governance, Risk-taking Behavior.? ∗ ꖻ곣ꡳ꧓뭘ꛦ걆끼냪곬라룉ꝕꅁ군땥뵳뢹결NSC90-2416-H-327-005ꅁ싔ꚹ교쇂ꅁꣃ꽓ꝏ띐쇂냎ꙗ뱦뵚ꥥ귻뒣꣑ꪺꖿ뭐ꯘ쒳ꅃ ∗∗ 냪ꗟ낪뚯닄ꑀ곬ꑪ뻇뿄샧륂꡴냆뇐뇂ꅁAssociate Professor, Department of Financial Operations, National Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
394쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꅂ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결꒧곣ꡳ 1. ꭥꢥ ꗘꭥ냪꒺믈ꛦ셠ꛦꪺ깡볆쇶땍ꕵꚳ50빬깡ꅁ꣤꓀ꛦꪺ깡볆ꑷ뱗ꕛꛜ3,000깡ꖪꕫꅁꛓꙢ쑶ꪧꕛ뱀ꪺꙐ껉ꅁ믈ꛦ꧱듚ꪺꚨ꫱꙾꣓ꚳ꧱멃롽ꡂꪺ룱뙈ꅁ꛱쁈ꪺ룪늣뭐ꩆ앶꽱돸륓뉶ꅁꗧ꒣둟1997꙾꒧ꭥꪺ멡뒺ꅁ꫱둘꙾ꭨꝥ뉻ꑕ럆ꢫꝃꪺ뛉Ꙗꅁ놩뽗걍믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꪺ륏꧱ꓱ뉶걏덶꙾썫ꩀꅝ룔ꢣꫭ1ꅞꅁBerger and DeYoung (1997) 땯뉻낪륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꪺ믈ꛦꅁ녎라뙩ꑀꡂ뻉교믈ꛦ셚껄ꪺ궰ꝃꅁꙝꚹ꙰꒣꿠ꚳ껄ꙝ삳ꚹꑀ냝썄ꅁꭨ꣤맯믈ꛦ꧒ꓞ땯ꪺ굴궱뷄삻ꕩ꿠라늧녠쑙궫ꅃ ꫭ1₪纨펥뮰좦ꮭ溫ﲼ킲캭? 볐 셠ꛦ깡 ꓀ꛦ깡 ꧱듚ꚨ룪늣돸ꩆ앶륏꧱ ꪽ놵 뚡놵 볆(깡) 볆(깡) 뉶 륓뉶 꽱돸륓ꓱ뉶 뿄ꓱ뉶 뿄ꓱ뉶 ꙾ (%) (%) 뉶(%)(%) (%) (%) 1995꙾ 42 1,807 1996꙾ 42 1,936 1997꙾ 47 2,176 1998꙾ 48 2,404 1999꙾ 52 2,576 2000꙾ 53 2,693 2001꙾ 53 3,005 2002꙾ 52 3,068 룪껆꣓랽ꅇ꒤ꖡ믈ꛦ뿄닎군ꓫ돸ꅂ뿄ꞽ뿄띾냈닎군뿨굮ꅂꕸ왗롧샙띳돸룪껆깷 뮡ꧺꅇ1.룪늣돸륓뉶뭐ꩆ앶꽱돸륓뉶꒧꓀ꑬ결땼ꭥ곕빬ꅃ 2.ꪽ놵뭐뚡놵뿄ꓱ뉶꒧뿅뙱맯뙈결뿄뻷멣ꅃ ?Mishkin (1997) ꕘ룪끔꒣맯뫙녎라ꓞ땯끦뿯뻜뭐륄뱷ꙍ쁉ꪺ냝썄ꅃ끦뿯뻜냝썄꒧꧒ꕈ땯ꗍꅁꭙꙢ룪끔꒣맯뫙ꪺ놡ꩰꑕꅁ낪ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꪺ볧Ꙣ귉듚ꯈꓡꅁ곛맯ꝃꭈꗎ궷쁉ꪺꯈꓡꅁꙝ룻뽮랥둍덖귉듚ꅁ교꣤돌ꯡ덑꧱듚뿯ꑗꪺꕩ꿠룻낪ꅃꛓ륄뱷ꙍ쁉냝썄꒧꧒ꕈ땯ꗍꅁꭙꙢ룪끔꒣맯뫙ꪺ놡ꩰꑕꅁ귉듚ꯈꓡꕩ꿠라녱걙꒣륄뱷ꪺ (immoral) 겡냊ꅁ뻉교귉듚샲녯뉍쁶ꪺꕩ꿠꧊ꙝꛓ궰ꝃꅃ걇꙰뻚ꑗ굺뷗쉉ꅁ럭믈ꛦ뭐ꯈꓡ뚡ꪺ쏶ꭙ꒣곆녋꓁ꅁ꣏녯룪끔꒣맯뫙ꪺ땻ꯗ때ꩫꚳ껄궰ꝃ껉ꅁꭨꙢ끦뿯뻜뭐륄뱷ꙍ쁉냝썄ꕩ꿠땯ꗍꪺ놡ꩰꑕꅁ믈ꛦꕩ꿠라꧓뻡룻낪ꪺ궷쁉ꅃ Boot (2000) ꕘ믈ꛦ꙳Ꙣꪺꕄ굮뉺ꗑ결듮뮴룪끔꒣맯뫙냝썄ꅁꛓ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ(relationship banking) 돌ꪽ놵꒧ꗘꪺꝙꙢ룑ꡍꚹꑀ냝썄ꅁ룓ꓥꣃ녎쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꥷ롱결뿄꒤꒶뒣꣑ꑕꙃ꣢뫘뿄ꩁ냈ꅇ(1)룪Ꙣ꣺녯녍쓝ꪺꯈꓡ
궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 395닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ 꽓ꥷ룪끔ꑗꅆ(2)덺륌뭐ꯈꓡꪺꙨ궫꒬냊꣓뗻꛴ꑗ굺룪ꪺ샲ꝑ꧊ꅃOngena and Smith (1998) ꭨꕘꚹꑀ믈ꛦ뭐뇂ꭈꯈꓡꪺꦹ꣓녋꓁쏶ꭙꅁꕩ결믈ꛦ뭐ꯈꓡ녡꣓껄꽱ꅁ룓ꓥꓞ굺Ꙩꛬ뻇ꪺ뷗쉉ꅁ뭻결믈ꛦꕩ덺륌ꑗ굺쏶ꭙꅁ꣺녯귉듚ꯈꓡꪺꡰꚳ룪끔ꅁꙢ꧱듚륌땻꒤ꟳ녋꓁ꙡ뫊럾ꯈꓡ뫞뉺뚥뱨ꪺꛦ결ꅃFerri and Messori (2000) 땯뉻ꅁ꣣ꚳ녪믈ꛦꯈꓡ쏶ꭙꪺ믈ꛦꅁ꣤륏꧱ꓱ뉶룻ꝃꅁꛓ꣣ꚳ깺믈ꛦꯈꓡ쏶ꭙꪺ믈ꛦꅁ꣤륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꭨ룻낪ꅃ ꗑꫭ1ꕩ곝ꕘ냪꒺뚡놵뿄꒧ꓱ꣒쇶덶꙾ꑕ궰ꅁ꒴ꚳ70%ꪺ볆귈ꅁꢬꢣꖻ냪믈ꛦ뭐ꯈꓡ뚡ꪺ쏶ꭙ쇙걏곛럭궫굮ꅃ놩륌ꕨ끷맯쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꪺ곛쏶ꓥ쑭ꅁꙨ뚰꒤Ꙣꑗ굺쏶ꭙ맯ꯈꓡ꒣Ꙑ멣궱ꪺ뱶암ꑗꅁ꙰ Lummer and McConnell (1989) 곣ꡳꚳ쏶ꛑꯈꓡ믈ꛦꭈꗎꙘ곹ꪺꯅꝩ껄ꩇꅁWeinstein and Yafeh (1998) 샋뗸믈ꛦ꒽ꕱ쏶ꭙ맯꒽ꕱ룪꣏ꗎ뭐룪ꚨꖻꪺ뱶암ꅁ뎯쁁ꟸ (1998) 놴끑ꦹ꣓쏶ꭙ맯꒽ꕱ뇂ꭈꛦ결ꪺ뱶암ꅁꕈKang and Stulz (2000) 곣ꡳꑗ굺쏶ꭙ맯꒽ꕱ꒽ꕱ셚껄ꪺ뱶암떥ꅃ맯럓ꑗꅁ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꕩ꿠라맯믈ꛦ덹ꚨ뱶암ꪺ곣ꡳꭨ곛맯룻ꓖꅁꭜ껼땞ꅂ뱂뫻땘 (1993) 쇶뒿놴끑륌믈ꛦꪺ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꅁꕄ굮ꭙꕈꛛꚳ룪ꖻꓱ뉶떥꣤ꕌ멣궱ꪺꙝ꿀ꅁ꣓샋뗸꣤맯믈ꛦ궷쁉ꪺ뱶암ꅃ걇ꖻꓥꑄꕈ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꚹꑀ멣궱ꅁ꣓놴끑꣤뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꪺ쏶ꭙꅃ 낣ꑆꑗ굺믈ꛦ뭐뇂ꭈꯈꓡꪺꦹ꣓녋꓁땻ꯗꅁ맯믈ꛦꪺ궷쁉ꕩ꿠덹ꚨ뱶암ꕾꅁGorton and Rosen (1995) ꭨ맯꧳과냪믈ꛦꙢ1980꙾ꕎꪺ낪궷쁉꧓뻡뉻뙈ꅁ뭻결뫞뉺ꪺ놰맜 (entrenchment) ꧳꣤꒤면ꑆ곛럭궫굮ꪺꢤꛢꅃ룓ꓥ땯뉻ꅁ럭뫞뉺ꪺ꯹ꓱ뉶룻ꝃ껉ꅁꙝ뭐ꕾ뎡ꩆꪺꝑ꽱룻꒣꿠ꑀ교ꅁꙢ늣띾ꭥ뒺ꓭ꣎꒧믚ꅁ뫞뉺ꪺ놰맜ꛦ결녎뻉교믈ꛦ꧓뻡룻낪ꪺ궷쁉ꅃꛓ냪꒺쇶ꚳ뎡꓀ꓥ쑭맯ꚹ곛쏶쒳썄뙩ꛦ놴끑ꅁ놩꣤맪쏒떲ꩇ뚡꙳ꚳꯜꑪꪺ깴늧ꅁꙝꚹꅁꖻ곣ꡳꙁꕈ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺 (corporate governance) ꚹꑀ멣궱ꅁ꣓놴끑꣤맯믈ꛦ궷쁉ꪺ뱶암ꅁꣃ냑ꛒGorton and Rosenꪺ낵ꩫꅁ꣏ꗎꕢꗀ볆끪쉫ꩫ (semi-paramertric regression method) 끷맯꒺뎡ꑈꑨꪺ앶떲멣뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉뚡꧒ꕩ꿠꙳Ꙣꪺꭄ뵵꧊쏶ꭙꅁꗽ뙩ꛦ뵔뭻ꯡꅁꙁ녎ꕾ뎡ꑈꑨꪺ앶떲멣ꕛꑊꅁ귚낵뙩ꑀꡂꪺ꓀꩒ꅃꕴꙝAnderson and Fraser (2000) Kang and Stulz (2000) ꞡ꓀ꝏ뒣꒣Ꙑ듁뚡꧒덹ꚨꪺ떲ꩇꕩ꿠ꚳ늧ꅁ걇ꖻꓥꑄ녎곣ꡳ듁뚡꓀ꚨ1995-1997꙾(룻꣣멡뒺)뭐1998-2000꙾(룻꒣꣣멡뒺)꣢걱듁뚡꣓뙩ꛦ샋뗸ꅃ 꿷녎ꖻꓥꪺꕄ굮ꗘꪺ쉫꿇꙰ꑕꅇ (1) 놴끑쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ맯믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꪺ뱶암 ꗑ꧳꫱꙾꣓걍믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꪺ륏꧱ꓱ뉶꯹쓲썫ꩀꅁꚹꑀ뉻뙈꙰꯹쓲둣꓆ꅁ꺣녎맯믈ꛦꪺꗃ쓲롧샧덹ꚨ쑙궫ꪺ뷄삻ꅁꛓ믈ꛦ면뿄꒤꒶ꕈꭐ뙩롧샙껄뉶ꪺꕜ꿠ꗧ녎ꑪꖴꚩꅁ덳녡맯꙳듚ꑪ늳뭐귉듚ꯈꓡꪺ앶꽱
396쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꅂ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결꒧곣ꡳ 늣ꗍ꒣ꝑꪺ뱶암ꅃꛓ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꝙ결ꑀ뫘믈ꛦ뭐ꯈꓡꪺꦹ꣓녋꓁땻ꯗꅁꕩ꣏믈ꛦꙢ뇂ꭈ륌땻꒤ꟳ녋꓁ꪺ뫊럾귉듚ꯈꓡꅁ듁룻ꚳ껄ꪺ놱꣮믈ꛦꪺ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꅃ놩냪꒺ꓥ쑭맯ꑗ굺쒳썄꧒낵ꪺ곣ꡳ곛맯싶꙰ꅁ걇ꖻ곣ꡳꑄ냑ꛒ곛쏶ꓥ쑭ꪺ뷗쉉ꅁ끷맯ꑇ뚡ꪺ쏶ꭙ뙩ꛦ놴끑ꅁꕈ셁룑쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ맯믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꪺ맪뷨뱶암ꅃ (2) 놴끑꒽ꕱꩶ뉺맯믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꪺ뱶암 ꗑ꧳꒺뎡ꑈꑨꪺ앶떲멣맯믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꪺꛦ결ꅁꕩ꿠ꚳ곛럭궫굮ꪺ룠쓀꧊ꅁꛓ냪꒺쇶ꚳ뎡꓀ꓥ쑭맯ꚹ곛쏶쒳썄뙩ꛦ놴끑ꅁ놩꣤맪쏒떲ꩇ뚡꙳ꚳꯜꑪꪺ깴늧ꅁ껉귈띳믈ꛦ뙽꧱덝ꗟꕈ꣓ꅁ믈ꛦ낪뚥ꕄ뫞늧냊Ꙙ꣖뛇뭄쁗셣꒧믚ꅁ맯꧳ꑗ굺쒳썄ꪺ뙩ꑀꡂ꓀꩒ꅁꚳ꣤뽗꽓ꪺ궫굮꧊ꅃ (3) 놴끑꣤ꕌ곛쏶ꙝ꿀맯믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꪺ뱶암ꅃ ꖻꓥ녎덺륌ꚹꑀ꓀꩒ꅁ꿇ꑊ덗볒뭐멡꛴듁뚡떥꣤ꕌ곛쏶ꙝ꿀ꅁꕈ셁룑꣤뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결뚡ꪺ쏶ꭙꅃ 2. ꓥ쑭놴끑 쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꪺ곛쏶ꓥ쑭 Boot (2000) ꕘ믈ꛦ꙳Ꙣꪺꕄ굮뉺ꗑ결듮뮴룪끔꒣맯뫙냝썄ꅁꛓ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ돌ꪽ놵꒧ꗘꪺꝙꙢ룑ꡍꚹꑀ냝썄ꅁ룓ꓥꣃ녎쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꥷ롱결뿄꒤꒶뒣꣑ꑕꙃ꣢뫘뿄ꩁ냈ꅇ(1)룪Ꙣ꣺녯녍쓝ꪺꯈꓡ꽓ꥷ룪끔ꑗꅆ(2)덺륌뭐ꯈꓡꪺꙨ궫꒬냊꣓뗻꛴ꑗ굺룪ꪺ샲ꝑ꧊ꅃOngena and Smith (1998) ꭨꕘꚹꑀ믈ꛦ뭐뇂ꭈꯈꓡꪺꦹ꣓녋꓁쏶ꭙꅁꭙ결ꑀ뫘뙗뙖돦꿂뿄ꗦ꧶냵ꛦꕈꕾꪺ녋꓁쏶ꭙꅁꣃꕩ결믈ꛦ뭐ꯈꓡ녡꣓껄꽱ꅁ룓ꓥꓞ굺Ꙩꛬ뻇ꪺ뷗쉉ꅁ뭻결믈ꛦꕩ덺륌ꑗ굺쏶ꭙꅁ꣺녯귉듚ꯈꓡꪺꡰꚳ룪끔ꅁꙢ꧱듚륌땻꒤ꟳ녋꓁ꙡ뫊럾ꯈꓡ뫞뉺뚥뱨ꪺꛦ결ꅃ 륌ꕨꓥ쑭ꑀ꿫Ꙣ놴끑ꑗ굺쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ껉ꅁꙨ뚰꒤Ꙣ꣤맯ꯈꓡ꒣Ꙑ멣궱ꪺ뱶암ꑗꅁꛓ맯믈ꛦ덹ꚨ뱶암ꪺ곣ꡳ곛맯룻ꓖꅁ꿷꓀굺꙰ꑕꅇ a. 맯ꯈꓡꩆ끝둉ꪺ뱶암 James (1987) ꕈ1974꙾ꛜ1983꙾80ꗳ믈ꛦ꧱듚Ꙙ곹ꪺꯅꝩ뙩ꛦꗳ곣ꡳꅁ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ룓ꗳ맯ꯈꓡꪺꩆ끝둉ꅁꭙꝥ뉻ꖿꙖꪺ믹삳ꅃ Lummer and McConnell (1989) ꕈ1976꙾ꛜ1986꙾728ꗳ믈ꛦꭈꗎꙘ곹ꪺꯅꝩꅁ뙩ꛦ녎쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ뻉ꑊꪺꗳ곣ꡳꅁ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ띳ꯈꓡ371ꗳ믈ꛦꭈꗎꙘ곹ꪺꯅꝩ껄ꩇ결꒣엣뗛ꅁꛑꯈꓡ357ꗳ믈ꛦꭈꗎꙘ곹ꪺꯅꝩ껄ꩇ
궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 397닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ ꭨ결ꖿꅃ b. 맯ꯈꓡ뇂ꭈꛦ결ꪺ뱶암 Berger and Undell (1995) 냲꧳믈ꛦꕩ덺륌뭐귉듚ꯈꓡ뚡ꪺ쏶ꭙꅁ꣺녯귉듚ꯈꓡꚳ믹귈ꪺ룪끔ꅁꣃꕩꝑꗎꚹꑀ룪끔뫫쇥꧱듚Ꙙ곹ꪺ뇸듚ꅁ꣓뙩ꑀꡂ샋뗸쏶ꭙ뙕꧱Ꙣ맯ꑰ꒽ꕱ뿄룪ꑗ꧒면ꪺꢤꛢꅃ룓ꓥꕈ1988꙾ꛜ1989꙾곹3,400깡ꑰ꒽ꕱꪺ룪껆ꅁ꣏ꗎ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫ뭐쎹Ꙏ꽓 (logit) ꩫ뙩ꛦ맪쏒ꅃ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁꚳ룻꣎믈ꛦ쏶ꭙꪺ귉듚ꅁꓤꕉ룻ꝃꪺꝑ꺧ꅁꕂ뷨ꧣ뻡ꭏꭾꪺꕩ꿠꧊룻ꝃꅃ Weinstein and Yafeh (1998) ꕈ1977꙾ꛜ1986꙾686깡ꓩꖻ뭳덹띾ꑗꖫ꒽ꕱꪺ룪껆ꅁꝑꗎ돌ꑪ랧꛴군ꩫ뭐뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꅁ꣓샋뗸믈ꛦ꒽ꕱ쏶ꭙ맯꒽ꕱ룪꣏ꗎ뭐룪ꚨꖻꪺ뱶암ꅃ곣ꡳ땯뉻ꅁ럭룪ꖻꖫ돵ꪺ뫞륄걏ꚳ궭껉ꅁ녋꓁ꪺ믈ꛦ꒽ꕱ쏶ꭙꅁ쇶ꕩ뱗ꕛ귉듚꒽ꕱ룪ꪺ꣺녯ꅁ꣤룪ꚨꖻ룻Ꙑ띾결낪ꅁꚹꑄꙝꑗ굺쏶ꭙꪺꙨ볆껄꽱결믈ꛦꭉ뭫꧒교ꅃ 뎯쁁ꟸ (1998) 끷맯냪꒺2깡띳ꅂ싂ꗁ샧믈ꛦ꧳1989꙾1ꓫꛜ1997꙾3ꓫꪺ381떧ꗓ뙕룪껆ꅁ꣏ꗎ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꅁ꣓놴끑ꦹ꣓쏶ꭙ멣궱ꅂ궷쁉뙋ꓴ멣궱ꅂꭈꗎ뗻꓀꣮ꯗꅂ뻡ꭏꭾ얲믹멣궱뭐놱꣮꧊멣궱ꅁ맯뇂ꭈꯈꓡ꧱듚ꝑ깴뭐꧱듚썂ꪺ뱶암ꅃ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ띳믈ꛦ뙽꧱ꗁ샧ꭥꯡꅁꑚ쓝꧳ꦹ꣓쏶ꭙꙮꪺ꧱듚ꅁꑪ엩ꑗꞡꚳꝕ꧳꧱듚ꝑ깴ꪺ궰ꝃꅃ 뎯롕뉍 (1998) ꭨꕈ곙쓝7ꛦ깷꧳1991꙾11ꓫ15ꓩꛜ1996꙾ꪺ52떧뭐86꙾ꪺ648떧껖뙕룪껆ꅁ꣏ꗎ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꅁ꣓놴끑ꦹ꣓쏶ꭙꅂ뫊럾떲멣ꅂ꒽뙽룪끔ꅂ꒽ꕱ엩뷨뭐뻡ꭏꭾ얲믹떥멣궱ꅁ맯뇂ꭈꯈꓡ꧱듚ꝑ깴뭐꧱듚썂ꪺ뱶암ꅃ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ둎ꦹ꣓쏶ꭙꛓꢥꅁ뻡ꭏ꧱듚껗ꗳ뭐낪곬늣띾꧱듚꒧ꕸ맴꙳듚ꝑ볭끞쑭땻ꯗꅁꚳꝕ꧳꧱듚ꝑ깴궰ꝃꅃ 뎯깡녬ꅂ뿠꧉견 (1998) ꕈ38깡냪꒺믈ꛦꙢ1992꙾꦳ꛜ1997꙾6ꓫꪺ427떧꧱듚룪껆ꅁ꣏ꗎ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꅁ꣓놴끑귉뙕ꦹ꣓쏶ꭙꅂ꧱듚ꮴ곹ꅂ귉듚꒽ꕱ뭐꧱듚믈ꛦ떥멣궱ꅁ맯귉듚꒽ꕱ꧱듚ꝑ뉶ꕛ뵘볆ꪺ뱶암ꅃꙢ귉뙕ꦹ꣓쏶ꭙꓨ궱ꅁ맪쏒떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ럭귉듚꣣ꚳꙮꪺ믈ꛦꦹ꣓쏶ꭙ껉ꅁ믈ꛦ룻쑀띎궰ꝃ꣤꧱듚ꕛ뵘볆ꅃ c. 맯ꯈꓡ셚껄ꪺ뱶암 Weinstein and Yafeh (1998) ꕈ1977꙾ꛜ1986꙾686깡ꓩꖻ뭳덹띾ꑗꖫ꒽ꕱꪺ룪껆ꅁꝑꗎ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꅁ꣓샋뗸믈ꛦ꒽ꕱ쏶ꭙ맯꒽ꕱ셚껄ꪺ뱶암ꅃ녋꓁ꪺ믈ꛦ꒽ꕱ쏶ꭙꅁꣃ때ꩫ뻉교룻낪ꪺ샲ꝑꚨꅃꚹꑄꙝꕄ굮믈ꛦ (main bank) Ꙗꯈꓡꚬ꣺룻낪ꪺꝑ꺧꾲ꅁꓮꯈꓡ녱낪궷쁉낪샲ꝑꪺ룪녍껗꧒교ꅃ Degryse and Ongena (1999) 냲꧳꫱꣓뉺뷗ꓥ쑭ꪺ맪쏒뉛롱결ꅁ뫻꯹Ꙩ
398쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꅂ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결꒧곣ꡳ 궫믈ꛦ쏶ꭙꪺ꒽ꕱꅁ룻꣤돦ꑀ믈ꛦꪺꙐ띾ꅁ녎ꚳ룻ꓖꪺ샲ꝑ꧊ꅃ룓ꓥꑄꕈ1979꙾ꛜ1995꙾꺿ꯂꑗꖫ꒽ꕱꪺ룪껆ꅁ꣏ꗎ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꅂ꣢뚥걱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫ뭐ꥷ껄ꩇ볒ꚡ떥ꓨꩫꅁ꣓샋뗸ꑗ굺맪쏒뉛롱ꅃ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ꙰꒽ꕱ꿠뫻꯹돦ꑀ믈ꛦꪺ쏶ꭙꅁꭨ꣤빐냢샲ꝑ꧊녎라ꧺ엣뒣낪ꅃ Kang and Stulz (2000) 땯뉻Ꙣꩆꗦ꧶꧒ꑗꖫꪺꑀ꿫꒽ꕱꅁ꧳1990꙾ꛜ1993꙾ꪺ늼믹귈ꑪ둔듮ꕢꅁꝀꗽ끷맯ꚳ뙕듚뭐때뙕듚꒽ꕱꪺ돸륓뉶ꅁ꧳1986꙾ꛜ1989꙾(셣멡듁)1990꙾ꛜ1993꙾(녙뵌듁)ꪺ꣢걱꒣Ꙑ듁뚡뙩ꛦt귈닎군샋ꥷꅁ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁꚳ뙕듚꒽ꕱꪺ돸륓뉶꧳셣멡듁ꧺ엣룻낪ꅁ꧳녙뵌듁ꪺ돸륓뉶ꭨꧺ엣룻ꝃꅃ땍ꯡ꣏ꗎ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꅁ꣓샋뗸뙕듚/굴뛅ꓱ뉶ꅂ믈ꛦ뚰많ꗸ띾ꚨ귻뭐꣤ꕌ멣궱ꙝ꿀ꅁ맯녙뵌듁ꑗꖫ꒽ꕱ돸륓뉶ꪺ뱶암ꅃ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ굴뛅꒤ꚳ룻낪믈ꛦ뙕듚ꓱ뉶뭐뚰많ꚨ귻ꪺ꒽ꕱꅁ꣤셚껄ꫭ뉻뵔맪룻결꒣꣎ꅃ 뇧ꗧ쉅 (1999) ꕈ1992꙾꣬1996꙾ꪺ뚰많ꗸ띾결곣ꡳ볐ꪺꅁ꓀ꚨ13귓ꕝ걁믈ꛦ띾뭐55귓꒣ꕝ걁믈ꛦꪺꗸ띾뚰많꣢닕ꅁꙀ군111귓ꗸ띾볋ꖻꅁꝑꗎt샋ꥷ닎군ꓨꩫꅁ샋ꥷꅵꚳ믈ꛦꅶꗸ띾뚰많ꪺ꓀ꑬꗸ띾ꅁ꣤끝냈셚껄걏ꝟ라쁵꧳ꅵ때믈ꛦꅶꗸ띾뚰많ꪺ꓀ꑬꗸ띾ꅃ곣ꡳ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁꭥꙢ꿂꽱뉶ꅂꩆ앶꽱돸륓뉶뭐룪늣돸륓뉶떥ꓨ궱곛맯룻낪ꅁꯡꭨꙢ굴뛅ꓱ뉶ꅂ걹냊ꓱ뉶ꅂ덴냊ꓱ뉶ꅂꥷ룪늣뙧신뉶뭐셠룪늣뙧신뉶떥ꓨ궱곛맯룻낪ꅃ Ꟶ냻띏 (ꗁ2000) ꕈ178깡ꑗꖫꅂ쉤꒽ꕱꙢ1994-1998꙾ꪺ룪껆ꅁ꣏ꗎ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꅁ꣓놴끑믈ꛦꦹ꣓쏶ꭙ맯ꗸ띾롧샧셚껄ꪺ뱶암ꅁ맪쏒떲ꩇ엣ꗜꅁꙢꗸ띾비꣼ꕾꙢ샴맒뷄삻껉ꅁ룻ꓖꪺꦹ꣓믈ꛦꅁꙝ룻꧶맯ꗸ띾뫊럾뭐ꣳ냓ꅁ걇맯ꗸ띾ꯗ륌쏸쏶ꪺꝕ꽱룻ꑪꅃꛓꗸ띾뭐믈ꛦꦹ꣓쏶ꭙ뙖녋꓁ꅁ맯ꗸ띾롧샧ꪺ셚껄ꗧꚳꖿ궱ꪺ뱶암ꅃ d. 맯믈ꛦ덹ꚨꪺ뱶암 Ferri and Messori (2000) ꕄ굮Ꙣ샋뗸믈ꛦꯈꓡ쏶ꭙ맯롱ꑪꝑ3귓꒣Ꙑ냏냬꧒덹ꚨꪺ뷄삻ꅃ룓ꓥ궺ꗽ뻚ꦹ꣓깡볆 (multi-bank borrowing index) 뭐꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗ (credit concentration index) ꪺ낪ꝃꅁ꣓꓀ꝏꥷ롱녪ꪺ믈ꛦꯈꓡ쏶ꭙ뭐깺ꪺ믈ꛦꯈꓡ쏶ꭙꅃ놵뗛ꕈ208깡믈ꛦ꓀ꝏ꧳1992꙾ꪺ룪껆ꅁ꧳1992꙾ꅂ1997꣢꙾뇄ꖭꞡ귈ꪺ룪껆ꅁ꣏ꗎ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꅁ꣓놴끑녪ꪺ믈ꛦꯈꓡ쏶ꭙꅂ깺ꪺ믈ꛦꯈꓡ쏶ꭙꅂ꧱듚돸륓뉶ꅂ꒽ꗁ샧쓝꧊ꅂ냏냬ꝏ녪ꪺ믈ꛦꯈꓡ쏶ꭙꅂ냏냬ꝏ깺ꪺ믈ꛦꯈꓡ쏶ꭙ떥ꙝ꿀맯륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꪺ뱶암ꅃ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ꣣ꚳ녪믈ꛦꯈꓡ쏶ꭙꪺ믈ꛦꅁ꣤륏꧱ꓱ뉶룻ꝃꅁꛓ꣣ꚳ깺믈ꛦꯈꓡ쏶ꭙꪺ믈ꛦꅁ꣤륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꭨ룻낪ꅃ ꗑ꧳륌ꕨ끷맯쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꪺ곛쏶ꓥ쑭ꅁꙨ뚰꒤Ꙣꑗ굺쏶ꭙ맯ꯈꓡ꒣Ꙑ멣궱ꪺ뱶암ꑗꅁꑗ굺쏶ꭙ맯믈ꛦ덹ꚨ뱶암ꪺ곣ꡳꭨ곛맯룻ꓖꅁ걇ꖻꓥꑄꕈ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꚹꑀ멣궱ꅁ꣓놴끑꣤뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꪺ쏶ꭙꅃꙢ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ멣
궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 399닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ 궱ꑗꅁꖻ곣ꡳꭙꕈFerri and Messori ꧒뒣ꕘꪺꦹ꣓깡볆뭐꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗꅁ꣓뿅뙱믈ꛦ뭐뇂ꭈꯈꓡꪺꦹ꣓녋꓁땻ꯗꅁꕴꕈ륏꧱ꓱ뉶꣓뿅뙱믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꪺ땻ꯗꅃ ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺ꪺ곛쏶ꓥ쑭 Saunders, Strock, and Travols (1990) 샋뗸믈ꛦ꧒ꚳ앶떲멣꣤궷쁉꧓뻡뚡ꪺ쏶ꭙꅃ룓ꓥ뭻결ꩆ놱꣮ꪺ믈ꛦ곛맯뫞뉺놱꣮ꪺ믈ꛦꅁꚳ뮤ꙝ꧓뻡룻낪ꪺ궷쁉ꅁꕂ꣤깴늧Ꙣ룑낣뫞꣮듁뚡ꟳ결ꧺ엣ꅃ룓ꓥ꣏ꗎ1978ꛜ1985꙾38깡믈ꛦ놱꒽ꕱꪺ룪껆ꅁ녎믈ꛦ궷쁉ꫭ결꧒ꚳ앶떲멣ꅂ끝냈멢뇬ꅂ샧륂멢뇬뭐믈ꛦ덗볒ꪺ꣧볆ꅁꕈ신뒫 (switching) 끪쉫ꓨꚡ뙩ꛦ1978꙾ꅂ1979-1982꙾뭐1983-1985꙾ꑔ귓신뒫녡 (regimes) ꪺ꛴군ꅁ맪쏒떲ꩇꑪ교ꓤ꯹룓ꓥ꧒뒣ꕘ꒧ꑗ굺낲뮡ꅁꝙ뫞뉺꯹ꓱ뉶뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉뚡결ꖿꙖ쏶ꭙꅃ Gorton and Rosen (1995) 왛맮Ꙣ1980꙾ꕎꅁꭄ믈ꛦꪺ쑶ꪧꭉ뭫믈ꛦ뛇닎겡냊ꪺ샲ꝑꅁ과냪믈ꛦ엜ꚨ꡴닎꧊ꪺꝃ샲ꝑ뭐낪궷쁉ꅁꑗ굺뉻뙈륌ꕨꪺꕄ굮룑쓀ꅁꭙ뭐ꥷ뙏뉶꙳듚ꭏ쁉꣮ꯗ꧒ꓞ땯ꪺ륄뱷ꙍ쁉ꚳ쏶ꅁ놩룓ꓥ땯뉻ꅁꙢ룑쓀믈ꛦ띾꫱꙾꣓ꪺꛦ결ꑗꅁ뫞뉺ꪺ놰맜곛룻뭐꙳듚ꭏ쁉ꚳ쏶ꪺ륄뱷ꙍ쁉ꛓꢥꅁ면ꟳ결궫굮ꪺꢤꛢꅃ룓곣ꡳꕈ1984꙾ꛜ1990꙾458깡믈ꛦ놱꒽ꕱꪺ룪껆ꅁ꣏ꗎꕢꗀ볆끪쉫ꩫꅁ꣓놴끑꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶ꅂꕾ뎡ꑈꑨ륤썂꯹ꓱ뉶ꅂ셠룪늣ꅂ셠룪늣ꖭꓨ뚵ꅂ냏냬ꝏ뭐껉뚡ꝏ떥ꙝ꿀ꅁ맯륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꪺ뱶암ꅁ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뭐꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶결ꑀ귋Uꪬ쏶ꭙꅃ땍ꯡꅁꙁ꣏ꗎ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꅁ꣓놴끑꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶ꅂ꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶ꖭꓨ뚵ꅂꕾ뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶ꅂ셠룪늣ꅂ셠룪늣ꖭꓨ뚵ꅂ냏냬ꝏ뭐껉뚡ꝏ떥ꙝ꿀맯륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꪺ뱶암ꅁꭥ굺떲ꩇꙁꚸ샲녯ꓤ꯹ꅃ Anderson and Fraser (2000) 뭻결Ꙣ1987꙾ꛜ1989꙾ꥷ뙏뉶꙳듚ꭏ쁉걉ꛦꅂ뱥썐ꩫ덗뭐ꝃ냵럓믹귈ꪺ껉듁ꅁ믈ꛦ뫞뉺녎라꧓뻡룻낪ꪺ궷쁉ꅆꛓꙢ1992꙾ꛜ1994꙾ꅁ믈ꛦ뫞뉺ꪺ궷쁉꧓뻡ꅁ녎라꣼궭꧳룻Ꙩꩫꯟ덗뵤ꅂꛒ뱻궷쁉꒧뱵꧊뙏뉶꣮ꯗ뭐낪냵럓믹귈ꪺ궭꣮ꅃ룓ꓥꕈ1987꙾ꛜ1994꙾150깡믈ꛦꪺ룪껆ꅁꝑꗎ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫ뭐꓀걱 (piecewise) 뵵꧊끪쉫ꩫꅁ꣓놴끑뫞뉺꯹ꓱ뉶ꅂQꓱ뉶ꅂꕾ뎡ꑈꑨ륤썂꯹ꓱ뉶ꅂ셠룪늣뭐ꗦ꧶쁗뉶ꅁ맯믈ꛦ셠궷쁉ꅂ꡴닎궷쁉뭐꒽ꕱ꽓ꥷ궷쁉ꪺ뱶암ꅃ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ뫞뉺꯹ꓱ뉶맯믈ꛦ셠궷쁉뭐꒽ꕱ꽓ꥷ궷쁉ꪺ뱶암ꅁ뭐룓ꓥ꒧ꭥꪺ륷듁ꑀ교ꅃ ꩌꥹ뱟 (1997) ꓀ꝏꕈ30깡ꑗꖫꅂ쉤믈ꛦ꧳1995꙾ꪺ뻮쉟궱룪껆ꅁ10깡ꑗꖫ믈ꛦ꧳1990ꛜ1995꙾ꪺ뉖Ꙙ룪껆ꅁ뙩ꛦ앶떲멣맯믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꪺ꓀꩒ꅃ룓곣ꡳ꧒꣏ꗎꪺꓨꩫꅁꕄ굮결뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫ뭐꓀걱뵵꧊끪쉫ꩫꅃ꧒뇄ꗎ꒧궷쁉볐ꕝ걁ꙕ뫘라군돸륓뉶ꪺ엜늧ꅂ륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꅁꝑ
400쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꅂ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결꒧곣ꡳ ꗎ룪ꖻꖫ돵룪껆ꡄ뫢꒧셠돸륓궷쁉ꅂ꡴닎궷쁉뭐ꭄ꡴닎궷쁉ꅃ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ뻣엩믈ꛦ뫞뉺ꪺ꯹ꓱ꣒뭐궷쁉꧓뻡땻ꯗ뚡결굴Ꙗ쏶ꭙꅃ 뛀ꯤ맅 (2000) ꕈ27깡냪꒺ꑗꖫ믈ꛦ꧳1997ꛜ1999꙾ꪺ룪껆ꅁ뇄ꗎ륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꅂ뛊ꚬꓱ뉶ꅂꝑ꺧ꖼꚬ뉻ꓱ뉶뭐돆ꧨꝢ녢뒣벷뉶4뫘볐Ꝁ결믈ꛦꭈꗎ궷쁉ꪺꕎ뉺엜볆ꅁ놴끑뇂ꭈ뫞뉺ꅂ롧샧셚껄ꅂ앶떲멣뭐닕슴떦늤맯믈ꛦꭈꗎ궷쁉ꪺ뱶암ꅃ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ믈ꛦ뢳뫊꯹ꓱ뉶ꪺ궰ꝃꅁꚳꝕ꧳믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꪺ떽ꅃ ꗑ꧳Gorton and Rosen땯뉻꒽ꕱꩶ뉺곛맯륄뱷ꙍ쁉ꪺ곛쏶ꙝ꿀ꅁꙢ룠쓀믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꪺꛦ결ꑗꅁ꣓녯ꟳ결궫굮ꅁꛓ냪꒺쇶ꚳꓥ쑭맯ꚹ쒳썄뙩ꛦ놴끑ꅁ놩꣤맪쏒떲ꩇ뚡꙳ꚳꯜꑪꪺ깴늧ꅁꙝꚹꅁꖻꓥꙁꕈ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺ꚹꑀ멣궱ꅁ꣓놴끑꣤맯믈ꛦ궷쁉ꪺ뱶암ꅁꣃ냑ꛒGorton and Rosenꪺ낵ꩫꅁ꣏ꗎꕢꗀ볆끪쉫ꩫ끷맯꒺뎡ꑈꑨꪺ앶떲멣뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉뚡ꕩ꿠꙳Ꙣꪺꭄ뵵꧊쏶ꭙꗽ뙩ꛦ뵔뭻ꯡꅁꙁ녎ꕾ뎡ꑈꑨꪺ앶떲멣ꕛꑊꅁ귚낵뙩ꑀꡂꪺ꓀꩒ꅃ ꣤ꕌ멣궱ꪺ곛쏶ꓥ쑭 Karels and McClatchey (1999) ꕈ1971꙾ꛜ1990꙾ꪺ룪껆ꅁꝑꗎ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꅁ꣓샋뗸ꭈꗎꙘꝀꫀ늣띾ꪺ꙳듚ꭏ쁉뭐궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결뚡ꪺ쏶ꭙꅃ놩뻣엩ꛓꢥꅁꣃ때쏒뻚엣ꗜꭈꗎꙘꝀꫀ라ꙝ꙳듚ꭏ쁉ꪺꕛꑊꅁꛓ뱗ꕛ꣤궷쁉꧓뻡ꪺꛦ결ꅃ ꭜ껼땞ꅂ뱂뫻땘 (1993) ꕈ냪꒺18깡냓띾믈ꛦ꧳1981꙾ꛜ1991꙾ꪺ룪껆ꅁꝑꗎ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꅁ놴끑ꛛꚳ룪ꖻꓱ뉶ꅂ룪늣덗볒ꅂꕛꑊ꙳ꭏ뭐ꝟꅂ꒽ꗁ샧쓝꧊뭐ꛛꗑ꓆듁뚡떥멣궱ꅁ맯믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꪺ뱶암ꅃ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁꛛꚳ룪ꖻꓱ뉶ꅂ룪늣덗볒뭐꒽샧쓝꧊ꅁ맯륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꝥ뉻굴Ꙗꪺ뱶암ꅆꛛꗑ꓆듁뚡ꭨ맯륏꧱ꓱ뉶꣣ꚳꖿꙖꪺ뱶암ꅃ ꗑ꧳ꖻ곣ꡳꪺ볋ꖻ믈ꛦꙢ곣ꡳ듁뚡띾ꑷꕛꑊ꙳듚ꭏ쁉ꅁ걇ꚳ때ꕛꑊ꙳ꭏꚹꑀꙝ꿀ꪺ뱶암꧊삳꒣ꑪꅁ귋걏꙳듚ꭏ쁉꣮ꯗꛛ1999꙾7ꓫ1ꓩ끟ꗑ귬꣓ꪺꥷ뙏뉶결궷쁉깴ꝏ뙏뉶꣮ꯗꅁꑝ덜Ꙣ꒣Ꙑꪺ곣ꡳ듁뚡라덹ꚨ덜깴늧ꅃꛛꚳ룪ꖻꓱ뉶Ꙣꑗ굺ꓥ쑭꒤꓀ꝏ럭낵삳엜볆뭐ꛛ엜볆ꅁ놩ꙝ룓ꓱ뉶녠라꣼꣬걆떦ꑗ돌ꝃ쉥ꪺ녪꣮굮ꡄ꧒뱶암ꅁ걇ꖻꓥꣃꖼ녎꣤꧱ꑊ곣ꡳ낲뮡꒤ꅃ믈ꛦ덗볒뙖ꑪꅁꚳ룻Ꙩ뻷라ꕩ꓀뒲룪늣닕Ꙙꪺ궷쁉ꅁꚳꟳꙨ뻷라놵쒲꒣Ꙑ쏾ꮬꪺꯈꓡꅁꚳꝕ꧳궷쁉꧓뻡땻ꯗ꒧궰ꝃꅁ걇ꖻ곣ꡳꑄ녎꣤꧱ꑊ곣ꡳ낲뮡꒤ꅃꕴꙝAnderson and Fraser뒣꒣Ꙑ듁뚡꧒덹ꚨꪺ떲ꩇꕩ꿠ꚳ늧ꅁ걇ꖻ곣ꡳꑄ녎곣ꡳ듁뚡꓀ꚨ1995-1997꙾ꅝ룻꣣멡뒺ꅞ뭐1998-2000꙾ꅝ룻꒣꣣멡뒺ꅞ꣢걱듁뚡꣓뙩ꛦ샋뗸ꅃ 3. 곣ꡳ덝군
궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 401닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ 곣ꡳ낲뮡 ꖻꓥ꓀ꝏ끷맯쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꅂ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺꣤ꕌ곛쏶ꙝ꿀뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꪺ쏶ꭙꅁ땯깩ꕘꑕꙃ3뫘꒣Ꙑ쏾ꮬꪺ꙰ꑕ낲뮡ꅇ?a. 놴끑쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결뚡ꪺ쏶ꭙ 낲뮡1-1ꅇꦹ꣓깡볆뭐륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꝥ뉻ꖿꙖꪺ쏶ꭙꅃ 낲뮡1-2ꅇ꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗ뭐륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꝥ뉻굴Ꙗꪺ쏶ꭙꅃ Boot (2000) ꕘ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ돌ꪽ놵꒧ꗘꪺꝙꙢ룑ꡍ룪끔꒣맯뫙냝썄ꅁOngena and Smith (1998) ꭨꕘꚹꑀ믈ꛦ뭐뇂ꭈꯈꓡꪺꦹ꣓녋꓁쏶ꭙꅁꕩ결믈ꛦ녡꣓껄꽱ꅁꝙ믈ꛦꕩ덺륌ꑗ굺쏶ꭙꅁ꣺녯귉듚ꯈꓡꪺꡰꚳ룪끔ꅁꙢ꧱듚륌땻꒤ꟳ녋꓁ꙡ뫊럾ꯈꓡ뫞뉺뚥뱨ꪺꛦ결ꅃFerri and Messori (2000) 땯뉻ꅁ꣣ꚳ녪믈ꛦꯈꓡ쏶ꭙꅝꦹ꣓깡볆곛맯룻ꝃꅁ꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗ곛맯룻낪ꅞꪺ믈ꛦꅁ꣤륏꧱ꓱ뉶룻ꝃꅁꛓ꣣ꚳ깺믈ꛦꯈꓡ쏶ꭙꅝꦹ꣓깡볆곛맯룻낪ꅁ꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗ곛맯룻ꝃꅞꪺ믈ꛦꅁ꣤륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꭨ룻낪ꅃ걇ꦹ꣓깡볆뭐륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꑄꝥ뉻ꖿꙖꪺ쏶ꭙꅁꛓ꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗ뭐륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꭨꝥ뉻굴Ꙗꪺ쏶ꭙꅃ b. 놴끑꒽ꕱꩶ뉺뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결뚡ꪺ쏶ꭙꅃ 낲뮡2-1ꅇ믈ꛦ낪뚥ꕄ뫞꯹ꓱ뉶뭐륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꝥ뉻ꭄ뵵꧊ꪺ쏶ꭙꅃ 낲뮡2-2ꅇ믈ꛦ뢳라ꚨ귻꯹ꓱ뉶뭐륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꝥ뉻ꭄ뵵꧊ꪺ쏶ꭙꅃ Gorton and Rosen (1995) 뭻결럭뫞뉺ꪺ꯹ꓱ뉶룻ꝃ껉ꅁꙝ뭐ꕾ뎡ꩆꪺꝑ꽱룻꒣꿠ꑀ교ꅁꙢ늣띾ꭥ뒺ꓭ꣎꒧믚ꅁ뫞뉺ꪺ놰맜ꛦ결녎뻉교믈ꛦ꧓뻡룻낪ꪺ궷쁉ꅁꕂ뙩ꑀꡂ땯뉻륏꧱ꓱ뉶뭐꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶결ꑀ귋Uꪬ쏶ꭙꅃꛓ냪꒺ꓥ쑭맯ꚹꭨꝥ뉻ꖿꙖꅂꙖ쏶ꭙꪺ깴늧떲ꩇꅁ걇ꚳꕩ꿠걏믈ꛦ꒺뎡ꑈꑨ(믈ꛦ낪뚥ꕄ뫞ꅂ믈ꛦ뢳라ꚨ귻)꯹ꓱ뉶뭐륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꝥ뉻ꭄ뵵꧊쏶ꭙ꒧걇ꅃ 낲뮡2-3ꅇ믈ꛦꕾ뎡ꑈꑨ앶떲멣뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결뚡ꝥ뉻굴Ꙗꪺ쏶ꭙꅃ Gorton and Rosen (1995) 뒣럭ꕾ뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶뙖낪껉ꅁ꣤뫊럾뻷꣮ꪺꑏ뙱삳곛맯룻녪ꅁꚳꝕ꧳믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꪺ떽ꅃ c. 놴끑꣤ꕌ곛쏶ꙝ꿀뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결뚡ꪺ쏶ꭙ 낲뮡3-1ꅇ믈ꛦ덗볒뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결뚡ꝥ뉻굴Ꙗꪺ쏶ꭙꅃ ꭜ껼땞ꅂ뱂뫻땘 (1993) 뒣믈ꛦ덗볒뙖ꑪꅁꚳ룻Ꙩ뻷라ꕩ꓀뒲룪늣닕Ꙙꪺ궷쁉ꅁꚳꟳꙨ뻷라놵쒲꒣Ꙑ쏾ꮬꪺꯈꓡꅁꚳꝕ꧳궷쁉꧓뻡땻ꯗ꒧
402쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꅂ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결꒧곣ꡳ 궰ꝃꅃ 낲뮡3-2ꅇ믈ꛦ멡꛴듁뚡녎맯믈ꛦꪺ궷쁉꧓뻡덹ꚨ꒣Ꙑꪺ뱶암ꅃ Anderson and Fraser (2000) Kang and Stulz (2000) 뒣꒣Ꙑ듁뚡꧒덹ꚨꪺ떲ꩇꕩ꿠ꚳ늧ꅁ걇믈ꛦꪺ멡꛴듁뚡녎ꕩ꿠덹ꚨ믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꪺ깴늧ꅃ 곣ꡳ엜볆뭐룪껆뭠뚰 꿷녎ꖻꓥ꧒뭠뚰ꪺ엜볆ꅂ뿅뙱ꓨꚡꅂꕄ굮ꪺ룪껆꣓랽곣ꡳ맯뙈뭐듁뚡ꅁ꓀ꝏ뮡ꧺ꙰ꑕꅇ a. 륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꓨ궱ꅁꕈ륏듁꧱듚낣ꕈ꧱듚ꪺꓱ뉶꣓뿅뙱ꅃ 믈ꛦꪺꦹ꣓깡볆ꅇ믈ꛦꪺꦹ꣓깡볆ꭙꕈ믈ꛦ결돦ꛬꅁ뿅뙱꣤꧒ꚳ귉듚ꯈꓡꦹ꣓믈ꛦ깡볆ꪺꕛ앶ꖭꞡꅁ걇i믈ꛦꪺꦹ꣓깡볆ꅁ꣤볆뻇ꚡ결nNB=qnbꅁq= L/ Lꅁ꣤꒤ꅁq결i믈ꛦ맯j꒽ꕱ꧱듚ꕥi믈ꛦij ij iij∑iijjj=1꧱듚셠썂꒧ꓱ뉶ꅁꕎꫭꕛ앶ꖭꞡꪺ앶궫ꅁL결i믈ꛦ뇂꒩j꒽ꕱꪺ꧱듚ꅁij L결i믈ꛦ뇂꒩꧒ꚳ꒽ꕱꪺ꧱듚ꅁnbꕎꫭi믈ꛦ귉듚ꯈꓡj꒽ꕱꪺ뛅앶ijn믈ꛦ깡볆ꅁ걇qnbꑄꕎꫭi믈ꛦ꒤꧒ꚳ귉듚ꯈꓡ뛅앶믈ꛦ깡볆ꪺꕛ∑ijjj=11앶ꖭꞡꅃꙝꚹNBꪺ볆귈뙖ꑰꅁꝙꫭꗜ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꪺ땻ꯗ띕녪ꅃ 믈ꛦꪺ꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗꅇ믈ꛦꪺ꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗꭙꕈ믈ꛦ결돦ꛬꅁ뿅뙱꣤꧒ꚳ귉듚ꯈꓡ귉듚뚰꒤ꯗꪺꕛ앶ꖭꞡꅁ걇i믈ꛦꪺ꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗꅁ꣤볆뻇ꚡ결nH=qhꅁh결j꒽ꕱꪺ귉듚뚰꒤ꯗꅁ결ꑀ뮮ꫢ녯 (herfindahl) j∑iijjj=12mmn볆ꅁh=L/Lꅁ걇qhꑄꕎꫭi믈ꛦ꒤꧒ꚳ귉듚ꯈꓡ귉듚∑∑∑iijijijji=1i=1j=12뚰꒤ꯗꪺꕛ앶ꖭꞡꅃꙝꚹHꪺ볆귈뙖ꑪꅁꝙꫭꗜ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꪺ땻ꯗ띕녪ꅃ i 1 ꣒꙰ꅁ낲덝i믈ꛦꕵꚳꑀ귓귉듚ꯈꓡꅁꕂ룓ꯈꓡꪺ뛅앶믈ꛦ깡볆ꑝꕵꚳꑀ깡ꅁꚹ껉i믈ꛦNBꪺ볆귈녎결1ꅁiꕎꫭi믈ꛦꚳꯜ녪ꪺ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ땻ꯗꅆ꙰룓ꯈꓡꪺ뛅앶믈ꛦ깡볆ꚳ꣢깡ꅁꚹ껉i믈ꛦNBꪺ볆귈녎결2ꅁ룻i꒧ꭥꪺ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ땻ꯗ결ꝃꅃꕴ꙰낲덝i믈ꛦꚳ꣢귓귉듚ꯈꓡꅁ꣤뛅앶믈ꛦ깡볆꓀ꝏ결꣢깡뭐ꑑ깡ꅁ꣤귉듚ꕥi 믈ꛦ꧱듚셠썂꒧ꓱ뉶꓀ꝏ결뭐ꅁꚹ껉i믈ꛦNBꪺ볆귈녎결ꅆ꙰ꓱ뉶꓀ꝏ결뭐ꅁꚹi껉i믈ꛦNBꪺ볆귈녎결ꅁ걇ꭥ룻ꯡꪺ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ땻ꯗ결낪ꅃ i2 ꣒꙰ꅁ낲덝i믈ꛦꕵꚳꑀ귓귉듚ꯈꓡꅁꕂ룓ꯈꓡꪺ뛅앶믈ꛦꑝꕵꚳꑀ깡ꅁꚹ껉i믈ꛦHꪺ볆귈녎결1ꅁꕎꫭii믈ꛦꚳꯜ녪ꪺ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ땻ꯗꅆ꙰룓ꯈꓡꪺ뛅앶믈ꛦꚳ꣢깡ꅁꕂ꣤귉듚썂곛Ꙑꅁꚹ껉i믈ꛦHꪺ볆귈녎i결ꅁ룻꒧ꭥꪺ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ땻ꯗ결ꝃꅃꕴ꙰낲덝i믈ꛦꚳ꣢귓귉듚ꯈꓡꅁ꣤뛅앶믈ꛦꞡ결꣢깡ꅁꕂ꣤귉듚ꕥi 믈ꛦ꧱듚셠썂꒧ꓱ뉶결뭐ꅁꛓ귉듚뚰꒤ꯗ결뭐ꅁꚹ껉i믈ꛦHꪺ볆귈녎결ꅆ꙰꣤i귉듚ꕥi 믈ꛦ꧱듚셠썂꒧ꓱ뉶결뭐ꅁꛓ귉듚뚰꒤ꯗ꒴결뭐ꅁꚹ껉i믈ꛦHꪺ볆귈녎결ꅁi
궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 403닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ d. 낪뚥ꕄ뫞꯹ꓱ뉶ꓨ궱ꅁꕈ셠롧뉺ꪺ꯹ꓱ뉶꣓뿅뙱ꅃ e. 뢳라ꚨ귻꯹ꓱ뉶ꓨ궱ꅁꕈ뢳라ꚨ귻꯹ꓱ뉶ꪺꕛ셠꣓뿅뙱ꅃ f. ꕾ뎡앶떲멣ꓨ궱ꅁꕈ뿄뻷멣뭐꒽ꕱꩫꑈ꯹ꓱ뉶ꪺꕛ셠꣓뿅뙱ꅃ g. 덗볒ꓨ궱ꅁꕈ룪늣셠귈꣓뿅뙱ꅃ h. 믈ꛦ멡꛴듁뚡ꓨ궱ꅁ꓀ꚨ1995-1997꙾(룻꣣멡뒺)뭐1998-2000꙾(룻꒣꣣멡뒺)꣢걱듁뚡ꅁꕈ뗪샀엜볆꣓뿅뙱ꅁ0ꕎꫭꭥ걱듁뚡ꅁ1ꕎꫭꯡ걱듁뚡ꅃ ꖻ곣ꡳ맪쏒룪껆꣓랽ꕄ굮결ꅇ a. ꒤ꖡ믈ꛦ뿄닎군ꓫ돸ꅂ뿄뻷멣띾냈랧ꩰ꙾돸ꅂ뿄뻷멣궫굮띾냈닎군ꫭꅂꖻ냪믈ꛦ샧륂셚껄ꥵ돸ꅃ b. 끝걆뎡뿄ꞽ닎군뒣굮ꅂ뿄띾냈닎군뿨굮ꅂ냲ꖻ뿄룪껆ꅃ c. ꕸ왗롧샙띳돸룪껆깷ꑗꖫ쉤꒽ꕱ땵듁귉듚ꧺ닓룪껆ꅂ끝냈ꓱ뉶룪껆ꅂ앶떲멣룪껆ꅃ ꖻꓥ꒧곣ꡳ맯뙈귬샀ꕈ35깡ꑗꖫꅂꑗ쉤믈ꛦ결ꕄꅁ꣤꒤ꕝ걁18깡ꛑ믈ꛦ17깡꧳ꗁ냪81꙾뎰쓲ꚨꗟꪺ띳믈ꛦꅁ곣ꡳ듁뚡결1995ꛜ2000꙾ꅁ놩꣤꒤ꑀ깡뛗덱믈ꛦꙝ꣤룻뇟ꑗꖫꅁ룪껆룻결ꓭ꿊ꅁ걇녎꣤귧낣ꅁ돌ꯡꕈꑗ굺듁뚡ꪺ34깡믈ꛦ결맪쏒볋ꖻꅃꗑ꧳볋ꖻ볆곛맯룻ꓖꅁ걇ꖻꓥꑄꕈ떲Ꙙ뻮쉟궱뭐껉뚡볆ꙃꪺ뉖Ꙙ룪껆 (pooling data) ꣓뙩ꛦ맪쏒ꅃ 군뙱덂뉺ꓨꩫ a. ꕢꗀ볆끪쉫볒ꚡ ꗑ꧳꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶(낪뚥ꕄ뫞꯹ꓱ뉶뢳라ꚨ귻꯹ꓱ뉶)맯륏듁꧱듚ꓱ뉶ꚳꕩ꿠ꕘ뉻ꭄ뵵꧊ꪺ뱶암ꅁꙢꥼꖼ뵔ꥷ꣤뚡쏶ꭙ꒧ꭥꅁꗽꝑꗎꕢꗀ볆끪쉫볒ꚡ녎ꑇꪺꕩ꿠쏶ꭙꫭ결ꅇY=f(α)+XβY = f(ꍜ) + Xꍝꅁ꣤꒤ꅁY결륏듁꧱듚ꓱ뉶ꅁα결꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶ꅁX결ꕝꝴꦹ꣓깡볆ꅂ꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗꅂꕾ뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶ꅝ뻷멣ꩫꑈ꯹ꓱ뉶ꅞꅂ룪늣덗볒ꪺ꣧볆ꅁf(α)ꕎꫭY뭐αꪺꕩ꿠꣧볆쏶ꭙꅁXβꕎꫭY뭐XꙢꖻꓥ꒤덑낲덝결뵵꧊ꪺ쏶ꭙꅃ 놵뗛ꅁ냑ꛒPagan and Ullah (1999) ꪺ낵ꩫꅁ덺륌Y뭐X꓀ꝏ맯α뙩ꛦkernel끪쉫ꅁ끪쉫ꯡꪺ득깴뚵ꅁꙁꕈ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꡄ녯βꭙ볆ꪺ꛴군3귈ꅃ땍ꯡꅁꙁ녎Y듮ꕨXβ꛴군귈ꪺ뎡꓀ꅁ맯α뙩ꛦkernel끪쉫ꅁꕈ셁룑Y뭐α뚡ꪺ꣧볆쏶ꭙꅁꡳꭙ뵵꧊ꭄ뵵꧊ꅁ귚낵결ꑕꙃ뉖Ꙙ끪쉫볒ꚡ 걇ꭥ룻ꯡꪺ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦ땻ꯗ결낪ꅃ 3 ꙰Y맯α뙩ꛦkernel끪쉫ꯡꪺ득깴뚵결εꅁX맯α뙩ꛦkernel끪쉫ꯡꪺ득깴뚵결ε,ε,…,εꅁꭨβꪺꭙ012n볆ꝙ결ε맯ε,ε,…,ε뙩ꛦ끪쉫꛴군ꛓ녯ꅃ 012n
404쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꅂ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결꒧곣ꡳ 4(pooled regression model) ꪺ덝ꥷ냲슦ꅁ꣤뚡ꣃꕈ뗪샀엜볆ꪺꓨꩫ꣓셁룑ꑗꙃ끪쉫ꚡꙢ꒣Ꙑ멡꛴듁뚡맪쏒떲ꩇꪺ깴늧ꅃ b. 뉖Ꙙ끪쉫볒ꚡ ꗑ꧳ꖻ곣ꡳꭙ꣏ꗎ떲Ꙙ뻮쉟궱뭐껉뚡볆ꙃꪺ뉖Ꙙ룪껆ꅁ꣓뙩ꛦ뉖Ꙙ끪쉫볒ꚡꪺ꛴군ꅁꗑ꧳뻮쉟궱뭐껉뚡볆ꙃꪺ늧뷨뭐ꑺ쉚엜꓆ꅁꕩ꿠라꣏녯ꑀ꿫Ꙣ뙩ꛦ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫ (ordinary least square method)껉ꅁ룻때ꩫ꣏끪쉫ꚡ꒤ꪺ멉뙚뚵ꭏ꯹꒣엜ꅁ걇Ꙣ꛴군꒧ꭥꅁ뚷ꗽꡍꥷ멉뙚뚵ꪺꮬ멁ꅇ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫ걏낲ꥷ꧒ꚳ볋ꖻ뎣ꚳ곛Ꙑ멉뙚뚵ꅆꥷ껄ꩇ볒ꚡ (fixed effects model) 걏낲ꥷ뻮쉟궱볋ꖻꚳ꒣Ꙑꪺ멉뙚뚵ꅆ쁈뻷껄ꩇ볒ꚡ (random effects model) ꭨ걏낲ꥷ볋ꖻꪺ멉뙚뚵걏쁈뻷엜볆ꅃ ꙝꚹꅁꕩ꓀ꝏ끷맯ꑗꙃꑔ뫘볒ꚡ뙩ꛦ뙩ꑀꡂ샋ꥷꅁꕈꡍꥷ꛳뫘볒ꚡ룻빁Ꙙ뉖Ꙙ끪쉫볒ꚡꪺ꛴군ꅃ맯꧳샋ꥷꥷ껄ꩇ볒ꚡ걏ꝟ쁵꧳뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨ22(R−R)/(n−1)fixolsꩫꅁꕩꕈ꣏ꗎF닎군뙱(F(n−1,nT−n−k)=)꣓뙩ꛦ2(1−R)/(nT−n−k)fix샋ꥷꅁ꣤꒤ꅁnꕎꫭ뻮쉟궱깡볆ꅁTꕎꫭ껉뚡볆ꙃ듁볆ꅁk결ꛛ엜볆귓볆ꅁ2R결Ꝑꥷꭙ볆ꅁfixꕎꫭꥷ껄ꩇ볒ꚡꅁolsꕎꫭ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꅆ맯꧳샋ꥷ쁈뻷껄ꩇ볒ꚡ걏ꝟ쁵꧳뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫꅁꕩꕈ꣏ꗎLM닎군뙱(LM = 22nTe∑∑itnTi=1t=1(LM=−1)꣓뙩ꛦ샋ꥷꅁ꣤꒤ꅁeꕎꫭ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨitnT2(T−1)2∑∑eiti=1t=1ꩫꪺ득깴뚵뙩ꛦ샋ꥷꅆ맯꧳샋ꥷ쁈뻷껄ꩇ볒ꚡ걏ꝟ쁵꧳ꥷ껄ꩇ볒ꚡꅁꭨ∧∧'ꕩꕈ꣏ꗎHausman닎군뙱(H=(− )ββfixrandom∧∧∧−1(−꣓뙩ꛦ샋ꥷꅁ꣤꒤ꅁꕎꫭ냑볆ꭙ볆ꅁꕎ)(−)∑∑ββ∑fixrandomβfixrandomꫭꙀ엜꽸끽ꅁfixꕎꫭꥷ껄ꩇ볒ꚡꅁrandomꕎꫭ쁈뻷껄ꩇ볒ꚡꅃ? 4 ꙰꣤꣧볆쏶ꭙ룻놵꫱뵵꧊ꅁꭨ놵ꑕ꣓ꪺ끪쉫꛴군녎ꕈ뵵꧊낲덝꣓뙩ꛦ맪쏒ꅁ꙰꣤꣧볆쏶ꭙ룻놵꫱ꭄ뵵꧊ꅁꭨ놵ꑕ꣓ꪺ끪쉫꛴군녎ꕈꭄ뵵꧊낲덝꣓뙩ꛦ맪쏒ꅃ
궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 405닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ 4. 맪쏒떲ꩇ 맏1뭐맏2결믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뭐꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶ꅝ낪뚥ꕄ뫞꯹ꓱ뉶뢳라ꚨ귻꯹ꓱ뉶ꅞ덺륌ꕢꗀ볆끪쉫볒ꚡ꧒녯ꕘꪺ꣧볆쏶ꭙꅁ꙰맏꒤ꝥ뉻룻ꧺ엣ꪺꭄ뵵꧊ꪬꅁꭨ뚷ꕈꭄ뵵꧊끪쉫ꚡ뙩ꛦꑕꑀꡂꪺ맪쏒ꅃ놩ꙝ맏꒤ꑇ뚡때ꧺ엣ꪺꭄ뵵꧊쏶ꭙ꙳Ꙣꅁ걇ꖻꓥꑄꕈ뵵꧊끪쉫ꚡ뙩ꛦ5륏꧱ꓱ뉶뭐꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶ꪺ뙩ꑀꡂ맪쏒ꅃ 낪뚥ꕄ뫞꯹뉶낪뚥ꕄ뫞꯹ꓱ뉶 맏1₻좦侩皻傰ꪶꖥ䒺?寧톤皪뫃? 뢳라ꚨ귻ꓱ뉶뢳라ꚨ귻꯹ꓱ뉶 맏2₻좦侩皻傸뎨욷粦ꢭﮫ寧톤皪뫃? ꫭ2결믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뉖Ꙙ끪쉫꛴군ꚡꅝ꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶결낪뚥ꕄ뫞꯹ꓱ뉶ꅞ멉뙚뚵꒣Ꙑ낲덝ꪺ샋ꥷ떲ꩇꅁ룓떲ꩇ엣ꗜꅁꥷ껄ꩇ볒ꚡ룻쁵ꅁ 5 ꝙ꣏낲덝륏꧱ꓱ뉶뭐꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶뚡결ꭄ뵵꧊쏶ꭙꅁ놩뙩ꑀꡂ맪쏒ꪺ떲ꩇꅁ꒴엣ꗜꑗ굺ꭄ뵵꧊쏶ꭙꣃꖼ꿠샲녯ꓤ꯹ꅃ 륏꧱ꓱ뉶륏꧱ꓱ뉶륏꧱ꓱ뉶 륏꧱ꓱ뉶
406쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꅂ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결꒧곣ꡳ ꫭ3ꭨ결룓볒ꚡꑕꪺ냑볆꛴군떲ꩇꅁ떲ꩇ엣ꗜꅁꦹ꣓깡볆뭐륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꝥ뉻엣뗛ꪺꖿꙖ쏶ꭙꅆ꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗ뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡때엣뗛ꪺ쏶ꭙꅆ낪뚥ꕄ뫞꯹ꓱ뉶뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡때엣뗛ꪺ쏶ꭙꅆ뻷멣ꩫꑈ꯹ꓱ뉶뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡때엣뗛ꪺ쏶ꭙꅆ덗볒뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡때엣뗛ꪺ쏶ꭙꅆ믈ꛦ멡꛴듁뚡ꭨ뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꝥ뉻엣뗛ꪺꖿꙖ쏶ꭙꅃ ꫭ2₻좦侩皲嚦墰櫂殦?ꅝ꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶결낪뚥ꕄ뫞꯹ꓱ뉶ꅞ멉뙚뚵샋ꥷ Hꅇ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫHꅇ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫHꅇ쁈뻷껄ꩇ볒ꚡ 000볒₦? Hꅇꥷ껄ꩇ볒ꚡ Hꅇ쁈뻷껄ꩇ볒ꚡ Hꅇꥷ껄ꩇ볒ꚡ 111F = LM = H = 닎군뙱 ꅝp = ꅞ ꅝp = ꅞ ꅝp = ꅞ 떲₪? 떴H 떴H 떴H 000 ꫭ3₻좦侩皨䶩瞦嶯삪몰톼욦?ꅝ꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶결낪뚥ꕄ뫞꯹ꓱ뉶ꅞ-ꥷ껄ꩇ볒ꚡ 룑 쓀 엜 볆 냑볆꛴군귈 t닎군뙱 p귈 ꦹ꣓깡볆?** ꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗ? 낪뚥ꕄ뫞꯹ꓱ뉶? 뻷멣ꩫꑈ꯹ꓱ뉶? 덗볒 믈ꛦ멡꛴듁뚡ꅝ뗪샀엜볆ꅞ?*** R-squared ? Adjusted R-squared 뗹ꅇ*ꫭꗜꙢ10% 엣뗛ꓴ럇ꑕ엣뗛늧꧳륳ꅆ**ꫭꗜꙢ5% 엣뗛ꓴ럇ꑕ엣뗛늧꧳륳ꅆ***ꫭꗜꙢ1% 엣뗛ꓴ럇ꑕ엣뗛늧꧳륳ꅃ?ꫭ4결믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뉖Ꙙ끪쉫꛴군ꚡꅝ꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶결뢳라ꚨ귻꯹ꓱ뉶ꅞ멉뙚뚵꒣Ꙑ낲덝ꪺ샋ꥷ떲ꩇꅁ룓떲ꩇꗧ엣ꗜꅁꥷ껄ꩇ볒ꚡ룻쁵ꅁꫭ5ꭨ결룓볒ꚡꑕꪺ냑볆꛴군떲ꩇꅁ떲ꩇ엣ꗜꅁꦹ꣓깡볆꒴뭐륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꝥ뉻엣뗛ꪺꖿꙖ쏶ꭙꅆ꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗ뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡때엣뗛ꪺ쏶ꭙꅆ뢳라ꚨ귻꯹ꓱ뉶뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡때엣뗛ꪺ쏶ꭙꅆ뻷멣ꩫꑈ꯹ꓱ뉶뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡때엣뗛ꪺ쏶ꭙꅆ덗볒뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡때엣뗛ꪺ쏶ꭙꅆ믈ꛦ멡꛴듁뚡ꭨ꒴뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꝥ뉻엣뗛ꪺꖿꙖ쏶ꭙꅃ
궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 407닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ ꫭ4₻좦侩皲嚦墰櫂殦ꆡ嶤몳ꆤ䢤梫寧톤皬낸뎨욷粦ꢭﮫ寧톤?뉶ꅞ멉뙚뚵샋ꥷ Hꅇ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫHꅇ뒶덱돌ꑰꖭꓨꩫHꅇ쁈뻷껄ꩇ볒ꚡ 000볒₦? Hꅇꥷ껄ꩇ볒ꚡ Hꅇ쁈뻷껄ꩇ볒ꚡ Hꅇꥷ껄ꩇ볒ꚡ 111F = LM = H = 닎군뙱 ꅝp = ꅞ ꅝp = ꅞ ꅝp = ꅞ 떲₪? 떴H 떴H 떴H 000ꫭ5₻좦侩皨䶩瞦嶯삪몰톼욦?ꅝ꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶결뢳라ꚨ귻꯹ꓱ뉶ꅞ-ꥷ껄ꩇ볒ꚡ 룑 쓀 엜 볆 냑볆꛴군귈 t닎군뙱 p귈 ꦹ꣓깡볆?** ꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗ? 뢳라ꚨ귻꯹ꓱ뉶? 뻷멣ꩫꑈ꯹ꓱ뉶? 덗볒 믈ꛦ멡꛴듁뚡ꅝ뗪샀엜볆ꅞ?*** R-squared ? Adjusted R-squared 뗹ꅇ*ꫭꗜꙢ10% 엣뗛ꓴ럇ꑕ엣뗛늧꧳륳ꅆ**ꫭꗜꙢ5% 엣뗛ꓴ럇ꑕ엣뗛늧꧳륳ꅆ***ꫭꗜꙢ1% 엣뗛ꓴ럇ꑕ엣뗛늧꧳륳ꅃ?ꗑ꧳ꦹ꣓깡볆뭐륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꝥꖿ곛쏶ꅁ걇엣ꗜꕘꦹ꣓깡볆꙰룻Ꙩꅁꭨ녎ꙝꛓ뱗ꕛ믈ꛦ뭐귉듚ꯈꓡ뚡룪끔꒣맯뫙ꪺ땻ꯗꅁ교꣏믈ꛦꙢ뇂ꭈ륌땻꒤룻때ꩫ녋꓁ꙡ뫊럾귉듚ꯈꓡꅁ륅덹ꚨ륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꪺ뱗ꕛꅃꛜ꧳꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗ뭐륏꧱ꓱ뉶때엣뗛곛쏶ꅁꭨꕩ꿠ꙝ꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗ낪ꪺ믈ꛦꅁ꒣뇆낣ꚳ뎡꓀귉듚ꯈꓡꙢ롧샧샴맒ꕘ뉻Ꙉ뛕껉ꅁ곛맯ꑗ룻때ꩫꙝ삳녯ꥹꅁ뙩ꛓꧨ빐놼귬ꗽꙝ룪끔꒣맯뫙냝썄룻ꓖꅁ꧒ꝥ뉻룻ꝃ륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꪺ껄ꩇꅁ교꣏꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗ뭐륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꪺ쏶ꭙ꒣굙륷듁엣뗛ꅃ ꛓ낪뚥ꕄ뫞꯹ꓱ뉶ꅂ뢳라ꚨ귻꯹ꓱ뉶곒뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶꒧뚡때ꧺ엣쏶덳ꅁ꣤귬ꙝꕩ꿠ꭙ냪꒺믈ꛦ결꓀ꛦ꣮ꪺ닕슴떲멣ꅁꙕ꓀ꛦ롧뉺곒ꚳꑀꥷ꒧뇂ꭈ썂ꯗ껖귣앶궭ꅁ걇뭐륏꧱ꓱ뉶땯ꗍ녋꓁쏶ꭙꅁꕩ꿠꣓ꛛ꓀ꛦ롧뉺ꛓ꒣ꑀꥷ걏셠ꛦꪺ낪뚥ꕄ뫞뢳라ꚨ귻ꅁꕛꑗ믈ꛦꥼꖼꓞ뙩뽗ꗟ뢳ꪺ꣮ꯗꅁ걇ꭐ꣏믈ꛦ맯궷쁉꧓뻡ꪺ꒺뎡놱꣮뻷꣮ꖼ꿠ꚳ껄뢨맪ꅃꛜ꧳뻷멣ꩫꑈ꯹ꓱ뉶뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꗧ때엣뗛ꪺ쏶ꭙꅁꕩ꿠
408쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꅂ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결꒧곣ꡳ ꭙ뻷멣ꩫꑈꑀ꿫꒧꯹ꓱ뉶곒ꚳ굙ꑺ궭꣮ꅁꕛꑗ뎡ꗷ뻷멣ꩫꑈꕩ꿠뭐믈ꛦ귬ꖻꝙ룻결보쏑ꅁ교꣏꣤ꕾ뎡뫊럾ꪺꑏ뙱귋ꖼ꿠ꚳ껄땯뒧ꅃꚹꕾꅁꙝ뒺껰멡걜맯꧳륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꚳ엣뗛ꪺ뱶암ꅁ꧒ꕈ꽓ꝏꙢ꒣뒺껰ꪺ껉듁ꅁꟳ맼엣ꑗ굺꒽ꕱꩶ뉺뻷꣮삳ꚭ뷕빁뭐ꙝ삳ꪺꯦ궢꧊ꅃ 5. 떲뷗 ꖻꓥꚮꙢ놴끑쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꅂ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺뭐꣤ꕌ곛쏶ꙝ꿀맯믈ꛦ궷쁉꧓뻡ꛦ결ꪺ뱶암ꅃ쏶ꭙ믈ꛦꭙꕈꦹ꣓깡볆뭐꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗ꣓뿅뙱믈ꛦ뭐뇂ꭈꯈꓡꪺꦹ꣓녋꓁땻ꯗꅁ꒽ꕱꩶ뉺ꭙꕈ꒺뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶(낪뚥ꕄ뫞꯹ꓱ뉶뢳라ꚨ귻꯹ꓱ뉶)뭐ꕾ뎡ꑈꑨ꯹ꓱ뉶(뻷멣ꩫꑈ꯹ꓱ뉶)꣓뿅뙱ꅁ꣤ꕌ곛쏶ꙝ꿀ꭨꕈ덗볒뭐멡꛴듁뚡꣓뿅뙱ꅃ곣ꡳ맯뙈ꭨ결1995꙾ꛜ2000꙾듁뚡떲Ꙙ뻮쉟궱뭐껉뚡볆ꙃ룪껆ꪺ34깡ꑗꖫꅂꑗ쉤믈ꛦꅃ 곣ꡳ떲ꩇ엣ꗜꅁꦹ꣓깡볆뭐륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꝥ뉻엣뗛ꪺꖿꙖ쏶ꭙꅆ꧱듚뚰꒤ꯗ뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡때엣뗛ꪺ쏶ꭙꅆ낪뚥ꕄ뫞꯹ꓱ뉶ꅂ뢳라ꚨ귻꯹ꓱ뉶ꞡ뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡때엣뗛ꪺ쏶ꭙꅆ뻷멣ꩫꑈ꯹ꓱ뉶뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡때엣뗛ꪺ쏶ꭙꅆ덗볒뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡때엣뗛ꪺ쏶ꭙꅆ믈ꛦ멡꛴듁뚡ꭨ뭐믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶뚡ꝥ뉻엣뗛ꪺꖿꙖ쏶ꭙꅃ ꑗ굺떲ꩇꚳꝕ꧳믈ꛦ셁룑뱶암륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꪺꕩ꿠ꙝ꿀꣤곛맯궫굮꧊ꅁꕈ낵결꣤ꖼ꣓떽냝썄꧱듚껉ꪺ냑ꛒꅃ꙰ꖻꓥ땯뉻ꅁ믈ꛦꦹ꣓깡볆뭐멡꛴듁뚡맯륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꪺ뱶암꣣ꚳ엣뗛ꖿꙖꪺ뱶암ꅁ걇귉듚ꯈꓡ꒧ꦹ꣓믈ꛦ꙰꿠룻결뚰꒤ꅁꭨ믈ꛦ맯ꚹ쏾ꯈꓡꪺ뫊럾녎룻결녋꓁ꅁ교맯믈ꛦ륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꪺ궰ꝃꚳ꧒ꝕ꽱ꅃꚹꕾꅁ럭뒺껰ꝃ끧껉ꅁ믈ꛦꟳ삳띖뿯ꯈꓡꅁ귚쇗ꝋ륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꪺ둣꓆ꅃꛜ꧳뭐꒽ꕱꩶ뉺룻ꚳ쏶ꪺꙝ꿀ꅁ꙰걍꒺뎡ꑈꑨꪺ낪뚥ꕄ뫞뢳라ꚨ귻꯹ꓱ뉶ꅁ걍ꕾ뎡ꑈꑨꪺ뻷멣ꩫꑈ꯹ꓱ뉶ꅁꙢꖻ곣ꡳ꒤맯믈ꛦꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉ꣃꖼ꿠덹ꚨ맪뷨엣뗛ꪺ뱶암ꅁ곰엣믈ꛦ꒺뎡놱뫞뭐ꕾ뎡뫊럾ꪺꩶ뉺뻷꣮ꅁ꒴ꚳ뙩ꑀꡂ녪꓆뭐뾳궲ꪺ뚡ꅃ 냑ꛒꓥ쑭 1. Ꟶ냻띏ꅁ믈ꛦꦹ꣓쏶ꭙ뭐꒽ꕱ롧샧셚껄끝냈ꙍ뻷꒧쏶셰꧊꓀꩒ꅁ꒤ꖿꑪ뻇끝냈뿄곣ꡳ꧒ꖼꕘꪩ뫓ꑨ뷗ꓥꅁ2000꙾ꅃ 2. ꩌꥹ뱟ꅁꖻ냪믈ꛦꪺ앶떲멣뭐궷쁉꧓뻡쏶ꭙ꒧곣ꡳꅁꗦ덱ꑪ뻇뫞뉺곬뻇곣ꡳ꧒ꖼꕘꪩ뫓ꑨ뷗ꓥꅁ1997꙾ꅃ 3. ꭜ껼땞ꅁ룪끔꒣맯뫙ꑕꖻ냪믈ꛦꖫ돵꒧곣ꡳꅁ걆ꩶꑪ뻇ꗸ띾뫞뉺곣ꡳ꧒ꖼꕘꪩ돕ꑨ뷗ꓥꅁ1992꙾ꅃ
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