信贷评分方法在建立可持续的中小企业信贷业务中的作用
What Roles Can Credit Scoring Methodology Play in Building Sustainable SME Portfolio
征信产品在商业银行信用风险管理中的应用高级研讨会
中国天津 2007年6月20－21日
Symposium on Credit Reporting and Retail & SME Banking
Tianjing June 20 – 21, 2007
尤瑞奇 哲斯鲁福特
Fair Isaac International 全球评分解决方案部门负责人
Uli Zeisluft
Director, Global Scoring Solutions
Fair Isaac International
导言 Introduction
中小企业的定义 The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) defined
数据对中小企业信贷决策的作用 The Relevance of Data for SME decision-making
贯穿中小企业客户生命周期的信贷评分工具 Credit Scoring across the SME account life cycle
结论 Conclusion
议程 AGENDA
© 2007 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.
导言 Introduction
中小企业的定义 The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) defined
数据对中小企业信贷决策的作用 The Relevance of Data for SME decision-making
贯穿中小企业客户生命周期的信贷评分工具 Credit Scoring across the SME account life cycle
结论 Conclusion
© 2007 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.
议程 AGENDA
设定背景／对经济的贡献 Setting the context/Economic relevance:
欧洲 Europe
拉丁美洲 Latin America
美国 US
中国 China
中型和小型企业（中小企业）详细定义
The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) defined
© 2007 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.
设定背景（欧盟）：欧洲委员会关于中小企业的官方定义 Setting the context (EU): European Commission official definition of an SME*
具有以下特征的企业… A business entity that…
员工人数少于250人 Has no more than 250 employees
单个更大企业股东单独或联合持有的股份少于25％ Is not more than 25% owned, either singly or jointly, by a larger company
年销售额少于4300万欧元 Has an annual turnover of no more than €43 million
*欧洲委员会－－布鲁塞尔， 2003年5月6日
European Commission – Brussels May 6, 2003
设定背景（欧盟）：对经济的贡献 Setting the context (EU): Economic relevance
微型和中小企业对社会和经济起着十分重要的作用 Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises are socially and economically important
欧盟99％的企业为微型和中小企业 Represent 99% of all enterprises in the EU
这些企业提供了6500万个就业机会 Provide around 65 million jobs
为放贷人带来许多业务成长机会 Lot’s of growth opportunities for lenders
2004年Eurobarometer对创业精神的调查：在过去三年中，只有4％的欧洲人参与了企业创办（而美国的这一比例接近12％） 2004 Eurobarometer survey on entrepreneurship: Only 4% of Europeans involved in setting up a business in last 3 years (US rate is close to 12%)
设定背景（拉丁美洲）：小企业定义 Setting the context (Latin America):Small business definition
哥伦比亚 COLOMBIA
员工人数不超过200人 Number of Employees up to 200
年销售额少于100万美元 Annual Sales of up to $1 million
信贷总额不超过20万美元 Credit of up to $200,000
小企业的类型 Types of Small Businesses:
个人独资 Sole Proprietors
合伙制 Partnerships
公司制 Corporations
墨西哥 MEXICO
员工人数不超过100人 Number of Employees up to 100
年销售额不超过50万美元 Annual Sales of up to $500,000
信贷总额不超过20万美元 Credit of up to $200,000
小企业的类型 Types of Small Businesses:
个人独资 Sole Proprietors
合伙制 Partnerships
公司制 Corporations
设定背景（拉丁美洲）：对经济的贡献 Setting the context (Latin America): Economic relevance
小企业部门是最大的就业来源，它促进了经济和社会的发展 Economic growth and social development by being the leading source of employment
在哥伦比亚，63％的就业机会来自于小企业部门 In Colombia the small business sector employs 63% of work force
在墨西哥，78％的就业机会是由小企业部门创造的 In Mexico 78% of work force
绝大部分的产品用于满足国内消费需求 Majority of production is for internal consumption
哥伦比亚25％的国内产出来自小企业部门 Colombia 25% internal production
墨西哥68％的国内产出来自小企业部门 Mexico 68% internal production
信贷的可获得性对小企业的生存发挥着至关重要的作用 Credit availability plays a fundamental role for survival of the small business
小企业较难获得资金和最新技术 Small businesses have limited access to funding and consequently to the newest technology
设定背景（美国）：小企业的定义 Setting the context (US): Small business definition
年销售额不超过500万美元 Annual Sales of up to $5 million
信贷额不超过25万美元 Credit of up to $250,000
小企业的类型 Types of Small Businesses:
个人独资 Sole Proprietors
合伙制 Partnerships
公司制 Corporations
美国”官方“定义 The “Official” US Definition: 美国的小企业是指独立拥有和经营的，在其行业领域不占主导地位的，符合美国小企业管理局发布的（《联邦法规汇编》第13篇第121条，修订条款）有关小企业的员工人数、平均年销售额或其它划分指标的企业 A small business is a . business that is independently owned and operated, is not dominant in its field of operation and can qualify under criteria concerning number of employees, average annual receipts or other criteria as outlined by the . Small Business Administration (CFR Title 13, Part 121, as amended)
企业规模标准依据不同行业和行业分类来决定。没有一个固定的规则…是一个复杂的随时可能变动的目标 Size standards are determined by Industry and Industry Classification. No one rule…a complex moving target
美国小企业局曾于2004年考虑将小企业定义中的员工人数指标扩大到1500人。 The SBA definition may change in 2004 to include businesses with up to 1500 employees
设定背景（美国）：对经济的贡献 Setting the context (US): Economic relevance
传统上，美国的企业被划分为大型、中型和小型 . businesses were traditionally classified as either large, medium or small
个人独资企业大约占了企业总数的73％ Approximately 73% of businesses are sole proprietorships
另外6％为合伙制企业 Another 6% are legally filed as partnerships,
21％为私营公司制企业 21% are filed as private corporations
美国人口调查局1997年的研究显示，按员工人数和年销售额这两个指标进行划分，全国98％的个人独资企业、合伙制企业和私营公司制企业都是小企业。 1997 study conducted by the . Census Bureau, 98% of sole proprietorships, partnerships and private corporations are considered small businesses based upon employee size and annual sales volume.
设定背景（美国）：对经济的贡献 Setting the context (US): Economic relevance
不管基于何种定义，小企业都代表了美国全部企业数的95％－98％ Small businesses, regardless of definition, represent 95% to 98% of all . businesses
％的总就业人口 % of all employers
39％的高科技企业工人 39% of workers in high tech
60％－80％的新就业机会 60-80% of all new jobs
50％的非农业私营部门产出和％的联邦主包/分包合同金额 50% of non-farm private sector output and % of federal prime/subcontractor dollars
53％的企业为住家办公型企业，3％为特许经营企业 53% of businesses are home bases and 3% are franchises
中小企业风险管理的要点：中小企业信贷将对经济健康产生影响 The point of SME risk management: SME lending impacts economic health
中小企业信贷将对一国的经济健康和放贷机构的利润率产生影响 SME lending impacts both economic health of a nation and institutional profitability
“信贷评分技术为（美国）市场发展打下了基础…它使贷款人能够建立起高度多元化的贷款组合，从而大幅降低信贷风险。（信贷评分）在改善我们的信贷发放系统效率和扩大发放范围方面也起到了主要作用，它使贷款人扩大了它们愿意放贷并能从中获利的借款人基础。” “Credit-scoring technologies have served as the foundation for the development of [.] markets…allowing lenders to build highly diversified loan portfolios that substantially mitigate credit risk. [Credit scoring has] played a major role in promoting the efficiency and expanding the scope of our credit-delivery systems and allowing lenders to broaden the population they are willing and able to serve profitably.”
美联储主席艾伦格林斯潘 在美国银行协会会议上的讲话 2002年10月7日 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Remarks before the American Bankers Association, October 7, 2002
“随着经济活动不断增强，以及企业对其客户的需求越来越有信心，企业对贷款的需求将会增加，银行业面临的利润压力将会开始缓解” “As economic activity continues to grow and businesses become more confident about their customers’ demands, business loan demand should increase, and pressures on banking margins should begin to ease.”
美联储主席艾伦格林斯潘 在美国独立社区银行大会上的讲话（通过卫星联线），2004年3月17日 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Remarks Before the Independent Community Bankers of America Convention, via satellite March 17, 2004
中国的中小企业：经济增长的动力 SMEs in China: An Engine for Growth
中国政府希望中小企业在中国经济增长中发挥更加重要的作用 Chinese Government expecting SMEs to play an increasing important role in China’s economic growth.
起草了一系列支持中小企业发展的鼓励政策，举办了诸如2006年第3届中小企业融资大会等促进借贷双方交流的活动 Series of preferential policies drafted to support SMEs as well as initiatives such as Financing Fair during 3rd CISMEF in 2006 to bridge SMEs with Lenders.
仅广东一省，就有38万家私营中小企业，总投资超过5000亿元人民币（合625亿美元），雇用员工总数超过350万人 Guangdong alone has registered more than 380,000 privately-run SMEs, total investment more than RMB 500 billion (USD billion) and employs more than million people.
虽然中小企业被认为是主要的经济力量，但是却仍然较难获得银行贷款，因为它们在传统上被认为是高风险且服务成本较高的对象 Though SMEs are recognized as an important sector of the economy, accessing bank financing remains difficult as SMEs are traditionally perceived as high-risk & high cost to service
导言 Introduction
中小企业的定义 The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) defined
数据对中小企业信贷决策的作用 The Relevance of Data for SME decision-making
贯穿中小企业客户生命周期的信贷评分工具 Credit Scoring across the SME account life cycle
结论 Conclusion
议程 AGENDA
© 2007 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.
从其它国家市场中可以学习到的主要知识 Key Learnings from other markets
数据是最重要的 Data are paramount
成功依赖于持续地获取、保留和利用所有相关数据的能力 Success depends on the ability to capture, retain and use all relevant data over time
数据清洗是必需的步骤 Data hygiene is a required step
预测模型和分析工具 Predictive models and analytics
需要充分的准备时间来采取行动 Requires sufficient lead time to take action
战略、报告和合规的组成部分 Component of strategy, reporting, compliance
自动化 Automation
成本节约、一致性、准确性 Cost savings, consistency, accuracy
流程、规则、结果 Processes, rules, output
必须对战略进行结合、测试和跟踪 Strategy must be aligned, tested and tracked
各个不同的层次：产品、定价、决策流程 Various levels: product, pricing, decision making process
在整个客户生命周期中结合数据工具 Alignment across the account lifecycle
测试和跟踪是关键 Testing and tracking are key
对中小企业借款人的认识 SME trivia
个人数据：不断地被证明，它是预测小小企业表现的最强有力的指标 Consumer data is proven time and time again to be the most powerful predictor of very small business performance
业主作为消费者的表现模式经常被错误地认定为是服务于个人产品的，而它实际上是一个典型的服务于商业（即小企业）产品的数据 Business owner pattern of consumer performance often mistakenly viewed adversely for consumer products yet is typical for commercial products
商业数据通常是一个预测借款企业表现的早期指标 Commercial data often an early indicator of performance
在标准付款行为中，应区分商业习惯和付款能力的差别 Difference between standard payment as part of business practices and capacity issues
小企业选择最先偿还银行贷款，其次是付水电气等公用事业费，最后才是付供应商的货款 Small businesses pay their banks first, utilities second and vendors last
对中小企业借款人的认识 SME trivia
将个人和商业数据结合使用，以期100％地达到巴塞尔新资本协议的精度要求 Marrying consumer and commercial data to get to 100% resolution as required under Basel II
美国中小企业管理局 The . Small Business Administration
从360度的全景、隐藏的细微差别、连通性等方面进行数据清洗 Data hygiene for 360 view, hidden nuances, connectivity
财务数据（企业自行报送或从公共渠道获得）－ 对评分或自动决策没有什么价值 Financial Data (self reported or public) – little value in scoring or automated decisioning
行业分类－－各人有各人的定义和解释 Industry Classifications – different meanings and interpretations depending on audience
在人工审贷和自动审贷之间存在巨大的成本差异 Huge cost differential between judgmental and automation
企业规模确实是一个需要考虑的因素
Size does matter
高
High
商业
Business
个人Personal
企业规模
Size of Company
低
Low
小型
Small
大型
Large
价值 Value
数据的作用 Relevance of Data Contributions
早先的生意关系 Previous Business Relationship
15 – 30%
个人征信机构数据 Consumer Credit Bureau data
30 – 40%
财务数据 Financial Data
15%
贷款申请数据 Application Data
15%
成功实施数据驱动型放贷所运用的战术：案例分析 Tactics for data-driven success：Case study
是一家在美国东海岸中部地区运营的区域性银行 Regional bank operating in the mid-Atlantic area of the .
在过去的5年时间中，开始加快利用自动化审批和信贷评分技术 Over past 5 years, have begun to accelerate use of automation and credit scoring
小企业贷款余额为15亿美元 $ small business portfolio
小企业的定义为年销售额不超过2000万美元。由于Fair Isaac的小企业定义是年销售额不超过500万美元，因此，评分仅能针对总量的50％ Small business defined by client as up to $20MM in annual sales. Since Fair Isaac SBSS definition is $5MM, score only 50% of volume
对客户的贷款处理时间从过去的两周下降到了不超过1天 Average turnaround time with the customer is down from over 2 weeks, to less than one day
绝大多数贷款申请的处理时间不到15分钟 Majority of applications processed in less than 15 minutes
成功实施数据驱动型放贷所运用的战术：案例分析（续） Tactics for data-driven success：Case study(Cont.)
小企业贷款组合是整个银行较赚钱的资产，也是处于成长中的业务之一 Small business portfolio is one of the more profitable areas of the bank as well as one of the growth areas for the bank
管理层认为经过信贷评分发放的贷款组合比没有经过信贷评分发放的贷款组合的利润率高（运营成本低，不良率低） Management says credit scored portfolio has better profitability than non-credit scored portfolio (lower operating costs, lower delinquencies)
集中式放贷和标准化流程（即：使用自动化审贷技术，使用评分工具来达到一致的／客观的／高质量的决策） Centralized underwriting and process standardization (. use of technology for automation, use of credit scoring for consistent/ objective/high quality decisions)
过去在经营上太过保守。研究成果能帮助银行加强信心，使它们能够减少拒绝的客户数 Were too conservative in the past. Research has helped bank get more comfortable, is allowing them to turn less business away
帐户管理流程中也使用技术，得益于对内部数据和信贷评分的综合利用 Account management processes also use technology, leverages full internal data and credit scoring
通过评分发放的贷款组合，其运营成本／不良率改善了5％到10％－－实现了可观的效益 Operating costs/delinquencies in scored portfolio improved by well over 5% to 10% – a significant multiple of improvement
评分既能改善风险业绩又能促进更有效的资源配置 Scoring drives both improved risk performance and more effective resource allocation
评分 SCORE
自动接受
AUTO ACCEPT
自动拒绝
AUTO DECLINE
评估
REVIEW
申请人数量 # OF APPLICANTS
提高自动审批率20－40％ ...在不增加贷款风险的情况下降低了客户的运营成本。由于降低了FTE成本，中型规模公务卡客户可立即为放贷机构创造140万美元的利润 Increasing auto-approvals 20 to 40% ... saves clients operating cost without adding risk to portfolio. Mid-size commercial card client instantly added $ to their bottom line from reduced FTE costs…
从1200＋美元到< 100美元From $1200+ to < $100
“评分能够帮助风险分散化” “scoring helps to diversify risk”
导言 Introduction
中小企业的定义 The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) defined
数据对中小企业信贷决策的作用 The Relevance of Data for SME decision-making
贯穿中小企业客户生命周期的信贷评分工具 Credit Scoring across the SME account life cycle
结论 Conclusion
议程 AGENDA
© 2007 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.
评分类型 Types of Scores
信贷评分 CREDIT SCORES
风险评分 RISK SCORES
非风险 NON-RISK
收入 REVENUE
回应 RESPONSE
消耗 ATTRITION
等 ETC.
帐户开发Account Origination
帐户管理Account Management
贷款申请评分APPLICATION
SCORES
行为评分BEHAVIOUR
SCORES
征信机构评分
CREDIT BUREAU SCORES
Jamaica
全球FICO® 评分的可获得性 Worldwide FICO® Score Availability
全面数据共享
部分数据共享
征信机构评分的价值：提炼预测能力 The Value of CB Scores: Distilling the predictive power
HEADER RECORD (IDENTIFYING INFORMATION)
I. Wishfor Credit 12 Lost Lane Sam’s Petrol & Oil
805 Main St. Somewhere, 6666 Attendant
Anytown, 9999 Date of Birth 1965-05-26
ID 8888888888888
PUBLIC RECORDS (LEGAL ITEMS)
1999-02-14 Judgment 1000
ACCOUNT INFORMATION (PAYMENT PROFILE)
Supplier Date Date Opening Current Account Payment
Reported Opened Balance Balance Type Profile
NiceWear 200206 19970110 700 54 I 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 1 1 0 0
SuperCall 200207 19990312 223 120 R P 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2
2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Best Bank 200207 19930201 7,500 3,520 R 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Village Bank 200207 20000214 12,000 7,358 I 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
ENQUIRIES (SEARCHES)
Date Subscriber Type
2001-04-21 GoodBuy EQ
2002-05-10 RocketFin EQ
1
2
3
4
680
基础记录（身份信息）
帐户信息（付款状况）
查询（搜索）
公共记录（法院判决）
600
620
640
680
征信机构评分对个人风险进行排序 Credit Bureau Scores rank consumer risk
控制低端“推翻” Control Low-side Overrides
控制风险的机会 Opportunity to Control Risk
获得新客户的机会 Opportunity for New Booking
控制高端“推翻” Control High-side Overrides
APPLICATION SCORE
低 Low
高 High
征信机构评分
CB SCORE
低 Low
高 High
双重评分机会 Dual Score Opportunities
贷款申请评分
批准／拒绝Approve/ decline
设定最初的信贷额度 Setting initial credit limits
贷款分层定价Tiered pricing of loans
帐户开发 ACCOUNT ACQUISITION
帐户管理 ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT
筛选申请人 APPLICANT SCREENING
提高／降低信贷额度 Limit increase/ decrease
授权 Authorisations
重新发放 Reissue
收款 Collections
推销 Solicitation
交叉销售 Cross-sell
组全资产认购 Portfolio acquisition
在整个信贷生命周期中都可使用 Use through the credit lifecycle
征信机构评分 Credit Bureau Score
Application or Behaviour Score
低 Low
高 High
高 High
强化你的决策 Strengthen your decision
改变你的决策
Change your
decision
改变你的决策
Change your
decision
补充定制评分 Complementing custom scores
贷款申请或行为评分
对金融机构在小企业业务中使用信贷评分的调查和评估 Survey: Assessment of Financial Institution Use of Credit Scoring for Small Business Lending
随着第三方信贷评分的出现，银行小企业业务的运营方式发生了巨大的变化 Banks operation for lending to small businesses have changed dramatically with the advent of 3rd party credit scores
信贷评分采用对风险进行量化评估的方式，增加了小企业可以获得的资金量 Credit scores introduce a quantitative measure of risk that may increase the availability of funds to small businesses
调查发现，各银行在小企业贷款中运用信贷评分工具时，存在不同的方式：The survey confirms that banks implement the use of credit scoring for small business loans in a number of different ways:
针对业主
的信贷评分
Credit Score
of Owner
针对企业
的信贷评分
Business
Credit Score
信贷评分
业主和企业
Credit Score
Owner & Biz
A
=
+
B
C
来源 Source: Charles D. Cowan and Adrian M. Cowan for SBA (2006)
针对业主的信贷评分 Owner Credit Score
针对业主和企业的信贷评分 Owner & Business Credit Score
针对企业的信贷评分 Business Credit Score
调查：银行是如何在小企业放贷业务中使用信贷评分的 Survey: How are Banks Using Credit Scoring for Small Business Lending?
Source: Charles D. Cowan and Adrian M. Cowan for SBA (2006)
调查发现 Survey findings
调查发现银行将信贷评分用于风险定价，并用于针对资质较低的小企业放贷流程中 Evidence that banks are using credit scoring for risk-based pricing and in the process of making loans to lower quality small businesses.
信贷评分使银行可以向信用度较低的贷款收取风险溢价 Credit scores allow banks to charge risk adjusted premiums on these less credit worthy loans
除了小企业贷款发放之外，信贷评分的主要应用是贷后监控 Primary use of credit scores outside small business loan origination is loan monitoring
小企业放贷业务正处于转型阶段，而信贷评分是其中的一个推动因素 Small Business Lending is in a state of transition & CREDIT SCORING plays a part
信贷评分是改变小企业放贷业务前景的几个银行业创新之一 CREDIT SCORING is one of the several banking innovations changing the landscape for small business lending
Source: Charles D. Cowan and Adrian M. Cowan for SBA (2006)
导言 Introduction
中小企业的定义 The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) defined
数据对中小企业信贷决策的作用 The Relevance of Data for SME decision-making
贯穿中小企业客户生命周期的信贷评分工具 Credit Scoring across the SME account life cycle
结论 Conclusion
议程 AGENDA
© 2007 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.
结论 Conclusion
中小企业对经济所作出的贡献是毋庸质疑的 The Relevance of the SME sector for any economy is undeniable
个人征信机构数据在评估中小企业信贷风险方面发挥着至关重要的作用 Consumer Credit Bureau Data plays a fundamental role in assessing SME credit risk
评分技术为中小企业贷款业务带来的好处 The benefits of scoring technology apply to SME lending
一致性 consistency
准确性 accuracy
速度 speed
信贷评分是创建可持续的中小企业贷款业务的关键因素 Credit Scoring is the key element for building sustainable SME portfolios
谢谢！
Thank You
Uli Zeisluft + ulizeisluft@
