第六篇
财务规划与短期融资
第六篇
财务规划与短期融资
财务规划的重要性:
提出了激励组织的公司目标和评价指标及标准
确认公司融资与投资决策之间的相互作用
估计公司面临的条件变化和突发事件
第六篇
财务规划与短期融资
第26章 公司财务模型与长期财务规划
第27章 短期融资计划
第28章 现金管理
第29章 信用管理
第六篇
财务规划与短期融资
第26章 公司财务模型与长期财务规划
长期财务规划包括资本预算、资本结构和股利政策。
如何建立财务模型：公司的增长率取决于公司的经营特征（利润和资产周转率）和财务政策（股利政策和资本结构）。
第六篇
财务规划与短期融资
第27章 短期融资计划
流动资产和流动负债
企业投资现金、应收帐款、存货等流动资产的规模。
如何筹集流动资产所占用的资金。
短期融资计划的工具----现金预算。
第六篇
财务规划与短期融资
第28章 现金管理
现金投资的管理问题：
确定公司现金收支平衡的合理目标
现金收支的管理
剩余现金投资于流动性证券
第六篇
财务规划与短期融资
第29章 信用管理
信用销售决策过程中的问题：
信用销售的条件
信用分析
收帐的措施
Corporate Finance Ross Westerfield Jaffe
Sixth Edition
Sixth Edition
27
Chapter Twenty Seven
Short-Term Finance and Planning
第26章
公司财务模型与长期财务计划
北京理工大学
管理与经济学院
肖淑芳
2004年3月
第26章
公司财务模型与长期财务计划
财务规划是企业未来发展的准则：
财务目标
现实状况与既定目标的差距
为达到目标应采取的行动
财务规划的基本政策内容：
选择有利的投资机会
采用合适的财务杠杆
合理的股利政策
第26章
公司财务模型与长期财务计划
国际商用机器（IBM）的增长目标：
跟上计算机行业的增长（P534）
第26章
公司财务模型与长期财务计划
Chapter Outline
What is Corporate Financial Planning?
A Financial Planning Model: The Ingredients
What Determines Growth?
Some Caveats of Financial Planning Models
Summary & Conclusions
什麽是公司财务规划
（What is Corporate Financial Planning?）
It formulates the method by which financial goals are to be achieved.
There are two dimensions:
时间匡架（A Time Frame）（P532，D3）
Short run is probably anything less than a year.
Long run is anything over that; usually taken to be a two-year to five-year period.
综合水平（A Level of Aggregation）
Each division and operational unit should have a plan.
As the capital-budgeting analyses of each of the firm’s divisions are added up, the firm aggregates these small projects as a big project.
什麽是公司财务规划
（What is Corporate Financial Planning?）
情景分析（Scenario Analysis）（P532）
Each division might be asked to prepare three different plans for the near term future:
A Worst Case
A Normal Case
A Best Case
什麽是公司财务规划
（What is Corporate Financial Planning?）
财务规划的作用（P533）：
明确筹资与投资的相互关系（Interactions）
The plan must make explicit the linkages between investment proposals and the firm’s financing choices.
提出被选方案（Options）
The plan provides an opportunity for the firm to weigh its various options.
分析可行性（Feasibility）
避免意外的变动（Avoiding Surprises）
Nobody plans to fail, but many fail to plan.
财务规划模型的主要组成部分
（A Financial Planning Model: The Ingredients）
销售额预测(Sales forecast)
预计报表(Pro forma statements)
资产需要量(Asset requirements)
融资需要量(Financial requirements)
追加变量(Plug)
经济假设(Economic assumptions)
财务规划模型的主要组成部分
（A Financial Planning Model: The Ingredients）
例26-1(P533)
说明了销售额增长与财务政策的相互作用关系。
追加变量取决于公司的财务政策：
股利或者是回购股票
偿还负债---负债权益比
财务规划模型的主要组成部分
（A Financial Planning Model: The Ingredients）
例26-2(P534)
讨论外部融资需要量(EFN)
编制预计资产负债表的六个步骤(P535)。
A Brief Example(P540)
The Rosengarten Corporation is think of acquiring a new machine. The machine will increase sales from $20 million to $22 million—10% growth.
The firm believes that its assets and liabilities grow directly with its level of sales. Its profit margin on sales is 10%, and its dividend-payout ratio is 50%.
Will the firm be able to finance growth in sales with retained earnings and forecast increases in debt?
A Brief Example
Current Balance Sheet
Pro forma Balance Sheet
(millions)
Explanation
Current assets
$6
$
30% of sales
Fixed assets
$24
$
120% of sales
Total assets
$30
$33
150% of sales
Short-term debt
$10
$11
50% of sales
Long-term debt
$6
$
30% of sales
Common stock
$4
$4
Constant
Retained Earnings
$10
$
Net Income
Total financing
$30
$
$300,000
Funds needed
A Brief Example: EFN
The external funds needed (EFN)
The Steps in Estimation of Pro Forma Balance Sheet:
Express balance-sheet items that vary with sales as a percentage of sales.
Multiply the percentages determine in step 1 by projected sales to obtain the amount for the future period.
When no percentage applies, simply insert the previous balance-sheet figure into the future period.
The Steps in Estimation of Pro Forma Balance Sheet: (continued)
Compute Projected retained earnings as
Projected retained earnings = Present retained earnings + Projected net income – Cash dividends
Add the asset accounts to determine projected assets. Next, add the liabilities and equity accounts to determine the total financing; any difference is the shortfall. This equals the external funds needed.
Use the plug to fill EFN.
财务规划模型的主要组成部分
（A Financial Planning Model: The Ingredients）
表26-1（P535）--不同计划增长率下的EFN
低增长率下，公司出现资金剩余，可以偿还外部筹资或安排投资
高增长率下，公司出现资金短缺，需要外部筹资
增长率是如何确定的
What Determines Growth?
运用NPV法时，应把增长率看成使NPV最大化决策的结果，而不是目标。
财务规划假设（不以发行股票追加外部融资需要量时）：
企业的资产随销售额成比例增长（T）
净利润与销售额之比是一个常数（P）
企业的股利政策既定（d） ，负债权益比既定（L）
企业发行在外的股票数量不变
在以上假设下，可以得到企业在销售利润率（P）、股利支付率（d）、负债权益比（L）、资产需要率（T）给定时的“可持续增长率”。
增长率是任何确定的
What Determines Growth?
There is a linkage between the ability of a firm to grow and its financial policy when the firm does not issue equity.
The Sustainable Growth Rate in Sales is given by:
The Sustainable Growth Rate in Sales
T = ratio of total assets to sales
p = net profit margin on sales
d = dividend payout ratio
A good use of the sustainable growth rate is to compare a firm’s sustainable growth rate with their actual growth rate to determine if there is a balance between growth and profitability.
增长率是任何确定的
What Determines Growth?
例26-3（P537）
期望增长率高于可持续增长率的措施：
发行新股
增加债务（L）
降低股利支付率（d）
提高销售利润率（p）
降低资产需要率（T）
Uses of the Sustainable Growth Rate
A commercial lender would want to compare a potential borrower’s actual growth rate with their sustainable growth rate. （P539）
关于财务规划模型的几点说明
Some Caveats of Financial Planning Models
Financial planning models do not indicate which financial polices are the best.（P538，D3）
They are often simplifications of reality—and the world can change in unexpected ways.（P538，D2）
Without some sort of plan, the firm may find itself adrift in a sea of change without a rudder for guidance.
Summary & Conclusions
Financial planning forces the firm to think about and forecast the future.
It involves
Building a corporate financial model.
Describing different scenarios of future development from best to worst case.
Using the models to construct pro forma financial statements.
Running the model under different scenarios (sensitivity analysis).
Examining the financial implications of ultimate strategic plans.
Summary & Conclusions
Corporate financial planning should not become an end in an of itself. If it does, it will probably focus on the wrong things.
The alternative to financial planning is stumbling into the future.
*
Don’t forget about the when the firm does not issue equity part.
