쏱볤뷰죚뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹뫍럧쿕럖컶ꎺ살ퟔ뇪믡뗄볬퇩 1쏱볤뷰죚뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹뫍럧쿕럖컶ꎺ살ퟔ뇪믡뗄볬퇩 횣헱쇺 쇖 몣 ꎨ쿃쏅듳톧뺭볃톧풺뷰죚쾵ꎬ쿃쏅듳톧뫪맛뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄ꎬ361005ꎩ 쓚죝볲뷩ꎺ놾컄퓚럖컶뇪믡쓚퓚믺훆뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ퇐뺿쇋뇪믡닎폫헟뗄쿖뷰쇷럖늼ꆢ뇪믡뗄샻싊웚쿞믺릹틔벰뇪믡뗄럧쿕뿘훆믺훆ꎬ늢쳡돶쿠펦뗄뿉퇩횤탔볙짨ꆣ캪쇋뛔헢킩볙짨뷸탐퇩횤ꎬ놾컄쪹폃쇋뚫쓏퇘몣쒳룶쏱볤뷰죚쪮럖랢듯뗘랽뗄쒳킩돉릦뗄뇪믡낸샽쫽뻝ꆣ쪵횤볬퇩뗄뷡맻믹놾짏뚼횤쪵쇋샭싛럖컶쳡돶뗄볙짨ꎬ늢퓚듋믹뒡짏볤뷓쳡릩쇋튻킩맦랶뫍랢햹쏱볤뷰죚뗄쿠맘붨틩뫍쮼슷ꆣ 맘볼듊ꎺ뇪믡 샻싊웚쿞뷡릹 럧쿕뿘훆 Abstract: Based on the analysis of the internal mechanism of ROSCA(Rotating Savings and Credit Association), this paper studies the cash flow distributions of participants, the term structure of interest rate and risk control mechanism, and puts forward some testable hypothesis. To test these hypothesis, this paper uses some successful cases from a county in Southeastern China which is very developed in folk finance. The empirical results confirm the hypothesis in a large degree. In the end, some suggestions and ideas on how to regulate and develop folk finance are indirectly put forwardꆣ Key Words: ROSAC term structure of interest rate risk control 튻ꆢ컄쿗믘맋 뇪믡ꎬ튲돆ꆰ뫏믡ꆱꎬ틢캪“싖뒢탮폫탅듻킭믡”ꆣ쯼쫇킭믡쓚늿돉풱뗄튻훖릲춬뒢탮믮뚯ꎬ튲쫇돉풱횮볤뗄튻훖싖랬쳡릩탅듻뗄믮뚯ꆣ내듋ꎬ헢쫇튻훖돉풱횮볤뗄쏱볤뷨듻ꎬ쫇돉풱횮볤뗄뷰뮥훺ꎬ춬쪱짦벰쇋뒢탮럾컱뫍탅듻럾컱ꆣ쯼쫇쏱볤뷰죚뗄훷튪탎쪽ꎬ퓚쓏늿뺭볃랢듯뗘쟸ꎬ죧뢣붨ꆢ헣붭ꆢ맣뚫튻듸ꎬ럇뎣쪢탐ꆣ쯤좻뇪믡퓚웤랢햹맽돌훐뺭샺쇋탭뛠럇뎣퇏훘뗄떹믡럧늨ꎬ죧짏룶쫀볍쒩쏶쓏뗘쟸뗄떹믡럧뎱ꆢ뷱쓪뢣낲뗄떹믡캣믺뗈ꎬ떫쫇퓚쎿듎퇏훘뗄캣믺맽뫳ꎬ쯼뚼쓜훘탂랢햹웰살ꎬ돤럖랴펳돶웤쓚짺뗄ퟔ컒랱횳뫍ퟔ컒랢햹쓜솦ꆣ 뇪믡튲쫇쏱볤뷰죚훐틽웰헹틩ퟮ뛠뗄튻훖뷰죚ퟩ횯탎쪽ꆣ튻랽쏦평폚웤잱퓚뗄뷰죚럧쿕ꎬ헾뢮튻횱뛔웤닉좡뗖훆뗄첬뛈ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ쯼뛔얩듥뺭볃뗄랢햹ꎬ폖웰ퟅ헽맦뷰죚쳥쾵쯹컞램쳦듺뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ쯹틔뛔뇪믡뗄랢햹펦룃닉좡쪲쎴퇹뗄첬뛈ꎬ튲쎻폐튻훂뗄틢볻ꆣ 평폚쏱볤뷰죚쳥쾵뗄쓚퓚뢴퓓탔ꎬ뛔쏱볤뷰죚뗄맦랶뫍랢햹ꎬ튻횱쫇컒맺뷰죚쳥훆룄룯뗄튻룶쓑뗣컊쳢ꎬ훁뷱튲쎻폐튻룶뇈뷏춳튻뗄죏쪶ꆣ폐죋돆횮캪 ꆰ믒뫚즫뷰죚ꆱꎨ헂쿾뮢ꎬ1996ꎩꎬ튲폐죋돆횮캪ꆰ럇헽맦뷰죚ꆱꎨ뛅뎯퓋ꎬ2001ꎩꎬ믲헟ꆰ뗘쿂뷰죚ꆱꎨ붭쫯쾼ꎬ2001ꎩꆣ횧돖쏱볤뷰죚랢햹뗄퇐뺿뚼솦춼듓훐킡웳튵죚쓑뗄뷇뛈살럖컶쏱볤뷰죚퓚훐킡웳튵죚훐뗄ퟷ폃ꎨ쇖틣럲ꆢ샮폀뻼ꎬ2001ꎩꎬ늢퓚듋믹뒡짏퇩횤쏱볤뷰죚뗄훆뛈탔릱쿗ꎨ뫎맣컄ꎬ1999ꎩ벰뫏램탔ꎨ뫎쳯ꎬ2002ꎩꆣ튻킩퇐뺿퓲솢ퟣ폚쏱볤뷰죚잱퓚뗄뻞듳럧쿕ꎬ듓볓잿뷰죚낲좫뗄뷇뛈뛔쏱볤뷰죚뗄볠맜뫍랢햹쳡릩헾닟붨틩ꎨ샮떤뫬2000ꎩꎬ뮹폐튻킩퇐뺿퓲쫇퓚믘 1룐킻뷌폽늿폅탣쟠쓪뷌쪦훺볆뮮ꆰ훐맺탅폃럧쿕뛈솿뫍뿘훆쒣탍ꆱ쿮쒿ꆢ뷌폽늿죋컄짧믡뿆톧퇐뺿2003쓪뛈늩쪿뗣믹뷰퇐뺿쿮쒿ꆰ훐맺샻싊샠뷰죚닺욷뗄짨볆뫍뚨볛ꆱꎨ03JB790016ꎩꆢ뢣붨쪡짧뿆ꆰ쪮컥ꆱ맦뮮ꎨ뗚뛾웚ꎩ쿮쒿ꎨ2003B069ꎩ뗄훺ꆣ놾컄맛뗣뷶듺뇭ퟷ헟룶죋맛뗣ꆣ 뗚 1 튳 릲 10 튳
쏱볤뷰죚뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹뫍럧쿕럖컶ꎺ살ퟔ뇪믡뗄볬퇩 맋컒맺쏱볤뷰죚샺쪷뗄믹뒡짏럖컶뫍퇐뺿컒맺뗄쏱볤뷰죚맦랶뫍랢햹컊쳢ꎨ쪷뷺뒨뗈ꎬ1997ꎩꆣ 쇭췢튻킩퇐뺿ꎬ퓲쫇듓쏱볤뷰죚ퟩ횯쓚퓚뗄캢맛퓋탐믺훆죫쫖ꎬ럖컶쏱볤뷰죚ퟩ횯ꎨ훷튪횸뇪믡ꎩ샻싊탎돉뗄쓚퓚믺훆뫍풭틲ꆣ튻냣뛸퇔ꎬ쏱볤뷰죚ퟩ횯뗄뷨듻샻싊뚼풶풶뎬맽헽뎣뗄헾뢮샻싊ꆣ쳆쫙쓾ꎨ1999ꎩ듓듻뿮죋닎폫뷨뿮죋뗄샻죳럖쿭뗄뷇뛈살뛔듋뷸탐뷢쫍ꎬ뻟폐샭싛짏뗄뫏샭탔ꆣ헅뻼ꎨ1999ꎩ샻폃탅쾢늻뛔돆샭싛뫍탅듻엤룸샭싛뛔듋쿖쿳뷸탐쇋럖컶ꎬ죏캪ꆰ얩듥탅듻쫐뎡뗄럖룮틔벰샻싊퓚럇헽맦탅듻늿쏅쓜릻놣돖룟폚헽맦늿쏅뗄컈뚨쮮욽ꆱ쫇ꆰ얩뮧뫍얩뮧ퟩ횯뛔얩듥뷰죚쫐뎡짏맘폚뮹듻럧쿕탅쾢뗄퇏훘늻뛔돆럖늼ힴ첬ꆱ뗄ꆰ샭탔랴펦ꆱꆣ떫쫇ꎬ내헕탅듻엤룸샭싛ꎬ탅듻엤룸뻹뫢쿂뗄샻싊펦떱뗍폚늻듦퓚탅듻엤룸쪱뗄췟뛻삭쮹뻹뫢샻싊ꎬ쯹틔헢훖뷢쫍폐뗣쎬뛜ꎨ붭쫯쾼뫍쟘맺슥ꎬ2000ꎩꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ얩듥뷰죚쫐뎡뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆평폚룷훖럇헽맦뷓뒥뗄듦퓚랴뛸쫇뇈뷏뗍뗄ꆣ 놾컄훷튪춨맽뷰죚릤돌톧뗄랽램ꎬ샻폃ퟷ헟10뛠쓪룺ퟙ뗷닩뗄쪵볊쫽뻝뫍닄쇏ꎬ뿍맛웊컶컒맺뇪믡뗄룷훖쳘헷ꎬ쳘뇰뛔뇪믡뗄샻싊탎돉믺훆뫍뷡맻ꆢ럧쿕뿘훆믺훆쳡릩뿍맛뗄럖컶ꎬ틔뇣캪볠맜늿쏅뷸탐폐킧ꆢ뫏샭뗘볠맜쳡릩뿆톧닎뾼ꆣ 컄헂뗄헻쳥뷡릹캪ꎺ쿂튻늿럖럖컶뇪믡닎폫헟뗄쿖뷰쇷쳘헷늢붫횮폫룟샻듻뷸탐뛔뇈ꎬ쳡돶튻킩폐맘쿖뷰쇷뗄볙짨ꎻ퓚뗚죽늿럖훐ꎬ컒쏇붫쳡돶맀볆뇪믡샻싊웚쿞뷡릹뗄솽훖랽램ꎬ늢춨맽뛔뇪믡퓋탐믺훆뗄럖컶쳡돶폐맘뇪믡샻싊웚쿞뷡릹탎ힴ뗄퇩횤탔볙짨ꎻ뗚쯄늿럖퓲쫇샻폃컒쏇쫕벯뗄뇪믡쪵볊퓋탐뗄쫽뻝뛔뗚뛾ꆢ죽늿럖훐뗄훚뛠볙짨뷸탐쪵횤볬퇩ꎬ볬퇩뷡맻믹놾퇩횤쇋샭싛럖컶쯹쳡돶뗄볙짨ꎻ뗚컥늿럖샻폃튻킩돉릦뗄뇪믡낸샽퇐뺿뇪믡뗄럧쿕뿘훆믺훆ꎻퟮ뫳튻룶늿럖퓲쫇볲뛌뗄뷡싛ꆣ 뛾ꆢ뇪믡뗄쿖뷰쇷쒣탍 뇪믡뗄돉풱냼삨믡춷뫍믡뷅ꆣ믡춷놾짭늻쳡릩죎뫎뷰ꎬ훷튪뗄횰퓰쫇ퟷ캪튻룶훐뷩쳡릩ퟩ횯뫍탅쾢붻쇷릵춨뗄럾컱ꎬ떱룶뇰믡뷅캥풼쪱쯻뮹돐떣엢뎥퓰죎ꆣ믡뷅룹뻝닎믡뗄늻춬탨쟳뿉틔럖캪뷨뿮헟뫍듻뿮헟ꆣ뷨뿮헟캪뷰뗄탨쟳헟ꎬ닎믡뗄쒿뗄쫇캪쇋믱좡뛌웚죚듻뿮ꎻ듻뿮헟쫇뷰뗄릩룸헟ꎬ닎믡뗄훷튪쒿뗄쫇믱뗃룼룟뗄샻쾢ꆣ떱좻믡춷튲뿉틔ퟷ캪튻룶믡뷅닎폫뇪믡믮뚯ꆣ 2캪쇋럖컶뇪믡뗄쿖뷰쇷ꎬ컒쏇볙짨튻룶뇪믡닎볓죋쫽캪Mꎬ쎿죋튻럝ꎬ뇪믡뗄뷰뛮캪3Kꆣ믡춷늻닎볓뇪믡ꆣ뇪믡뗄욵싊쫇쎿퓂뇪1듎ꆣ 腩裪腪 뇪믡뗄퓋탐믺훆 뇪믡ퟱ톭ퟅ튻쳗볲떥맦퓲ꎺ튻룶ퟔ좻죋ퟷ캪믡춷ꎬ돶폚쒳훖쒿뗄ퟩ횯웰폐쿞쫽솿뗄죋풱ꎨ믡뷅ꎩꎬ쎿죋쎿웚(쎿퓂ꆢ쎿룴튻퓂ꆢ쎿벾ꆢ쎿냫쓪ꆢ쎿쓪뗈)쓃돶튻뚨쫽뛮뗄믡잮ꎬ쎿웚춨맽춶뇪평튻룶죋뗃떽좫늿떱웚믡잮ꆣ뇪믡늻쫇튻룶폀뻃탔ퟩ횯ꎬ퓚쯹폐돉풱틔싖랽쪽룷믱뗃튻듎벯훐퓚튻웰뗄믡잮횮뫳ꎬ벴룦훕뷡ꆣ 컒쏇폃K뇭쪾쎿듎춶뇪뗄놾뷰ꎬM뇭쪾믡뷅뗄죋쫽ꆣ퓚뇪믡돉솢쪱ꎬ쯹폐뗄믡뷅쫗쿈쿲믡춷횧뢶Kꎬퟷ캪닎믡뗄쳵볾ꆣ믡춷평듋믱뗃ퟜ뛮캪M×K뗄컞쾢뷰ꆣ폫듋춬쪱ꎬ믡뷅뷸탐쫗듎춶뇪ꆣ풸틢춶뇪뗄믡뷅룹뻝ퟔ짭뗄뷰탨쟳ힴ뿶뫍춶뇪닟싔쳡돶룷ퟔ뷰뗄뷨뿮샻싊ꎬ헢훖샻싊늻쫇틔냙럖뇈뗄탎쪽횱뷓뇭쪾돶살ꎬ뛸쫇춨맽쇭췢튻훖랽쪽ꎺ풸틢믱뗃헢뇊 2 폐뗄믡믡뷅닎볓뗄럝쫽늻횹1럝ꎬ쯹틔럝쫽듳폚뗈폚닎믡뗄죋쫽ꎬ컒쏇헢뇟캪쇋럖컶뗄볲뮯ꎬ횱뷓ퟷ듋볙뚨ꎬ뛔컄헂뷡싛쎻폐펰쿬ꆣ 3 떱좻뮹폐웤쯻뗄뇪믡욵싊ꎬ뇈죧쎿퓂뇪튻듎ꎬ뗚3뗄놶쫽퓂볓뇪튻듎ꎻ쎿퓂뇪1듎ꎬ뗚2뗄놶쫽볓뇪1듎ꎻ쎿냫룶퓂뇪1듎뗈ꆣ 뗚 2 튳 릲 10 튳
쏱볤뷰죚뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹뫍럧쿕럖컶ꎺ살ퟔ뇪믡뗄볬퇩 4뷰뗄ퟮ듳헛뿛ꆣ쮭풸틢쳡릩뗄헛뿛ퟮ듳ꎬ쮭뻍훐뇪ꆣ볙짨웤훐쒳룶훐뇪헟ꎨMꎩ풸틢쳡1릩뗄헛뿛ퟮ듳ꎬ캪pꎬ퓲쯻붫믱뗃웤쯻믡뷅내헕p뗄헛뿛쳡릩룸쯻뗄뷰ꎬ벴11(M−1)×(K−p)ꆣ틑훐뇪뗄믡뷅돆캪ꆰ쯀믡뷅ꆱꎬ쯻늻쓜퓙닎폫춶뇪ꆣ듓뗚뛾듎춶뇪횱훁1ퟮ뫳튻듎춶뇪잰ꎨ늻냼삨ퟮ뫳튻듎ꎩꎬ쯻쎿듎뇘탫횧뢶K살뎥뮹헢뇊듻뿮ꆣ웤쯻짐캴훐뇪뗄믡뷅돆캪ꆰ믮믡뷅ꆱꆣꆰ믮믡뷅ꆱ폐좨닎폫틔뫳뗄춶뇪ꆣ 퓚뗚뛾룶퓂뗄만뚨춶뇪쪱볤ꎬ평쪣쿂뗄M−1룶ꆰ믮믡뷅ꆱ뺺뇪ꎬ늢평풸틢쳡릩ퟮ듳헛뿛뗄믡뷅훐뇪ꆣ헛뿛뫍훐뇪헟컒쏇럖뇰볇캪p,Mꆣ듋쪱쯻붫믱뗃(M−2)×(K−p)+Kꆣ222잰쏦캪ꆰ믮믡뷅ꆱ붻쓉뗄믡잮ꎬ뫳쏦캪ꆰ쯀믡뷅ꆱ쳡릩뗄믡잮ꆣ 틔듋샠췆ꎬ퓚뗚i룶퓂ꎬ폐i−1룶죋틑뺭돉캪ꆰ쯀믡뷅ꆱꎬ평쪣폠뗄M−i+1룶ꆰ믮믡뷅ꆱ뷸탐뺺뇪ꎬ풸틢쳡릩뗄ퟮ듳헛뿛캪pꎬ훐뇪헟Mꎬ믱뗃뗄뷰캪ii(i−1)×K+(M−i)×(K−p)ꆣ i퓚ퟮ뫳튻룶퓂ꎬ횻폐튻룶죋쎻폐믱뗃맽뷰ꎬ쯻믱뗃뗄뷰캪M×Kꎬ평믡춷횧뢶ꆣ훁듋ꎬ뇪믡뷡쫸ꆣ 평틔짏럖컶뿉틔뾴돶ꎬM쫇췪좫뗄뷨죫헟ꎬM쫇췪좫뗄듻돶헟ꎬ웤쯻믡뷅쫇쿈듻돶뫳1M뷨죫ꆣ내훐뇪쮳탲ꎬ믡뷅평췪좫뷨죫헟훰붥뇤돉췪좫듻돶헟ꆣ훐볤훐뇪뗄죋캪뷨듻욽뫢헟ꎬ횮잰뗄캪뺻뷨죫헟ꎬ뫳쏦뗄캪뺻듻돶헟ꆣ퓚뇪믡훐튪돐떣쪲쎴뷇즫췪좫평믡뷅룹뻝ퟔ벺뗄쟩뿶ퟔ풸뻶뚨ꆣ 듋췢ꎬ캪쇋놣횤뇪믡뺻듻돶헟뗄샻틦ꎬ뫜뛠뇪믡뚼맦뚨쇋ퟮ뗍헛뿛ꆣ 腩鏱腪 뇪믡뗄쿖뷰쇷럖컶 뇪믡뺺뇪뗄듎쫽폐M−1듎ꎬ춶뇪쪱볤럖뇰볇캪t,t,...,tꎬ뇪믡뷡쫸뗄쪱볤캪tꆣ12M−1M쿖뷰쇷폃C뇭쪾ꆣC뇭쪾믡춷뗄쿖뷰쇷ꎬC뇭쪾M뗄쿖뷰쇷ꆣ 0ii1ꎮ 믡춷뗄쿖뷰쇷럖컶 믡춷퓚뗚튻듎뺺뇪쪱믱뗃M×K뗄뷰ꎬ퓚뇪믡맽돌훐늻닎폫뺺뇪믮뚯ꎬ쎻폐쿖뷰쇷ꎬ퓚뇪믡뷡쫸쪱튪쿲ퟮ뫳튻룶닎폫헟횧뢶M×Kꆣ쯹틔믡춷뗄쿖뷰쇷캪ꎺ C=M×K,C=−M×K 0,t0,t1M쯹틔ꎬ퓚늻랢짺캥풼뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ믡춷뗄쫕틦쫇만뚨뗄ꎬ뻍쫇뇪믡ퟜ뷰뛮퓚뇪믡듦탸맽돌훐뗄쪱볤볛횵ꆣ퓚쏱볤뷰죚훐ꎬ헢훖쪱볤볛횵쫇늻쓜내헕틸탐뚨웚듦뿮샻싊볆쯣뗄ꎬ뛸펦룃내헕쿠펦뗄룟샻듻샻싊볆쯣ꆣ쯹틔헢훖쪱볤볛횵쫇늻죝뫶쫓뗄ꎬ뿉틔캪믡춷쳡릩뫜듳뗄쫕틦ꆣ 2ꎮ믡뷅뗄쿖뷰쇷럖컶 믡뷅M퓚t믱뗃뗄쿖뷰쇷캪(M−1)(K−p)−Kꎻ듓t뾪쪼횱떽tꎬ탨튪쎿웚뢶돶1112M−1Kꎬt뗄쿖뷰쇷캪0ꆣ M 4헢뻍뗈볛폚쮭쳡릩뗄듻뿮샻싊ퟮ룟ꆣ 뗚 3 튳 릲 10 튳
쏱볤뷰죚뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹뫍럧쿕럖컶ꎺ살ퟔ뇪믡뗄볬퇩 믡뷅M(i<M)퓚t횮잰쎿웚튪횧뢶K−p,j=1,2,...,i−1ꎬ돵쪼뷰횧뢶캪Kꆣ퓚iij쪱뿌t믱뗃뗄쿖뷰쇷캪(i−1)×K+(M−i)×(K−p)ꎻ듓t떽t쎿웚횧뢶Kꎬ쪱뿌t횧iii+1M−1M뢶뗄쿖뷰쇷캪0ꆣ 쯹틔ꎬ믡뷅M(i<M)뗄쿖뷰쇷캪ꎺ iC=−2K+p,i,t11C=−K+p,=2,...,titji−1jC=(i−1)×K+(M−i)×(K−p) i,tiiC=−K,k=t,...,titi+1M−1kC=0i,tMퟮ뫳튻룶믡뷅M뗄쿖뷰쇷캪ꎺ MC=− 2K+pM,t11 C=−K+p,=2,...,M−1M,tii C=MKM,tM 듓짏쏦뇪믡퓋탐믺훆뗄럖컶뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ뇪믡쯹탎돉뗄샻싊쮮욽쫇튻룶뒿쫐뎡뮯뗄샻싊쮮욽ꎬ쯼쫇평쫐뎡닎폫훷쳥춨맽췪좫뗄쫐뎡뺺헹탐캪쯹듯떽뗄튻룶뻹뫢쮮욽ꎬ쓜릻벰쪱폐킧뗘랴펳쫐뎡떱쪱뷰뗄릩쟳ힴ뿶ꆣ떱쫐뎡훷쳥뛔뷰뗄탨쟳뇈뷏듳쪱ꎬ쯹풸틢쳡릩뗄헛뿛쮮욽뻍뇈뷏듳ꎬ듋쪱뗄듻뿮샻싊튲뻍쿠펦뗄뇈뷏룟ꎻ떱쫐뎡훷쳥뛔뷰뗄탨쟳늻ퟣꎬ듳늿럖닎폫헟뚼쫇뷰뗄펯폠헟쪱ꎬ닎폫헟쯹풸틢쳡릩뗄헛뿛뻍뇈뷏킡ꎬ듋쪱뗄쫐뎡샻싊뻍뇈뷏뗍ꆣ떱좻ꎬ평폚뇪믡뗄닎폫훷쳥쫽솿짙ꎬ죝틗쫜떽튻킩춻랢쫂볾뗄펰쿬ꎬ뇈죧쒳룶믡뷅뗄볒춥춻랢쫂볾뗈ꎬ듓뛸떼훂샻싊뫜죝틗랢짺늨뚯ꆣ ꎨ죽ꎩ뇪믡닎폫헟뗄펯뿷럖컶 뇪믡닎폫헟내헕뷰탨쟳뿉틔럖캪탨쟳헟뫍릩룸헟ꆣ탨쟳헟뗄쒿뗄쫇샻폃뇪믡뷸탐뛌웚죚ꎬ쯹틔쯻쏇튻냣퓚퓧웚뻍뺺뇪돉릦ꎬ풸틢쳡릩뗄헛뿛튲뇈뷏룟ꆣ릩룸헟뗄쒿뗄쫇캪쇋믱뗃샻쾢쫕죫ꎬ쯹틔쯻쏇튻냣뚼늻풸틢닎볓뺺뇪ꎬ뺺뇪췹췹퓚뫳웚ꎬ풸틢쳡릩뗄헛뿛튲뇈뷏뗍ꆣ 1ꆢ헛뿛싊럖컶램 캪쇋럖컶뇪믡닎폫헟뗄펯뿷쟩뿶ꎬ컒쏇뚨틥룷닎폫헟훐뇪뗄헛뿛싊캪ꎺ훐뇪뗃떽뗄뷰뛮폫놾뷰ퟜ뛮뗄뇈싊ꆣ평폚룷닎폫헟쿖뷰쇷뗄닮틬늻뷶쳥쿖퓚훐뇪뷰뛮짏ꎬ뮹뇭쿖퓚돉캪ꆰ쯀믡ꆱ쪱볤동퓧짏ꆣ틲듋컒쏇튪뇈뷏훐뇪헛뿛싊횮잰ꎬ쿈튪뛔듋뷸탐뗷헻ꆣ 뇈뷏M뫍M뗄쿖뷰쇷뿉틔뾴돶ꎬM뗄돉캪쯀믡뗄쪱볤뇈M동튻룶퓂ꎬ쯻붻뗄믡ii+1i+1i5잮ퟔ좻튲뇈M짙pꆣ평폚p늻듳ꎬ뛸쟒쪱볤횻폐1룷퓂ꎬ틲듋컒쏇뿉늻뾼싇웤쪱볤볛횵ꎬiii횱뷓뛔훐뇪헛뿛싊뷸탐뗷헻ꆣ뺭맽뗷헻뗄헛뿛싊ꎨDꎩ뗄볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ 5 틲캪M퓚쪱뿌t탨튪횧뢶Kꎬ뛸M퓚쪱뿌t횻탨튪횧뢶K−pꎬ퓚웤쯻쪱볤횧뢶뗄쿖뷰쇷췪좫ii+1i+1ii튻퇹ꆣ 뗚 4 튳 릲 10 튳
쏱볤뷰죚뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹뫍럧쿕럖컶ꎺ살ퟔ뇪믡뗄볬퇩 (i−1)×K+(M−i)×(K−p)−piiD=,=1,...,M−2ꎬ iMK(M−2)K+(K−p)+(K−p)M−1M−16D=ꎬ M−1MKMKD==1 MMK평폚믵뇒폐쪱볤볛횵ꎬ볓짏풽퓧훐뇪ꎬ놻캥풼뗄럧쿕풽킡ꆣ틲듋퓚헽뎣쟩뿶쿂ꎬD뗄횵펦쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄췆틆늻뛏쳡룟ꆣ 2ꆢ뇈뷏럖컶램 퓚쏱볤뷰죚ퟩ횯훐뮹듦퓚ퟅ쇭췢튻훖죚탎쪽ꎺ룟샻듻ꆣ뷰뗄탨쟳헟뿉틔횱뷓춨맽룟샻듻뗄랽쪽믱뗃뷰ꎻ뷰뗄릩룸헟튲뿉틔횱뷓붫뷰춨맽룟샻듻뗄랽쪽듻돶ꎬ쎻폐뇘튪춨맽뇪믡ꆣ틲듋컒쏇뿉틔춨맽폫룟샻듻샻싊쿠뇈살볆쯣뇪믡닎폫헟뗄펯뿷ꆣ 룟샻듻뫍뇪믡쿠뇈ꎬ쿖뷰쇷짏듦퓚뗄닮뇰폐ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ룟샻듻뗄뎥뮹쫇튻듎탔뢶쟥놾뷰ꎬ뛔뷨뿮죋뗄뷰톹솦뇈뷏듳ꎻ뛸뇪믡퓲쫇럖웚뎥뮹ꎬ뛔뷨뿮죋뗄뷰톹솦뇈뷏킡ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ룟샻듻뗄듻돶쫇튻듎탔횧뢶룸듻뿮헟놾뷰ꎬ뛔듻뿮죋뗄뷰튪쟳뇈뷏듳ꎻ뛸뇪믡쫇럖웚쳡릩ꎬ뛔듻뿮죋뗄뷰튪쟳뇈뷏킡ꆣ 듓헢룶틢틥짏ꎬ뇪믡뻍쫇훚뛠뗄뷰릩룸헟솪뫏웰살뛔훚뛠뗄뷰탨쟳헟쳡릩뷰횧돖ꆣ평폚뇪믡룸뷨뿮헟쳡릩쇋뎥뮹짏뗄뇣샻ꎬ쯹틔닎폫뇪믡뗄뷰탨쟳헟풸틢횧뢶뗄샻싊쮮욽뎬맽춬웚뗄룟샻듻샻싊ꆣ뇪믡쯹폐뗄쿖뷰쇷뚼퓚믡뷅뫍믡춷횮볤쇷뚯ꎬ쯼쏇횮볤쫇튻룶쇣뫍늩?맽돌ꆣ쯹틔죧맻볙짨룟샻듻샻싊캪g늢놣돖늻뇤ꎬ퓲쯹폐닎폫헟뗄쿖뷰쇷내헕룟샻듻샻싊뷸탐쳹쿖뫳볓ퟜ뗈폚0ꆣ벴 MM−g(k−1)Ce=0 ∑∑i,tki=0k=1붫믡춷뗄쿖뷰쇷떥뛀럖뾪ꎬ퓲믡뷅뗄ퟜ펯뿷뿉틔킴캪ꎺ MM−g(k−1)−g(M−1)Ce=MK(e−) ∑∑i,tki=1k=1룹뻝짏쏦뗄럖컶ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽폐맘뇪믡닎폫헟펯뿷뗄튻킩볙짨ꎺ Hꎺ뛔폚뷰뗄탨쟳헟뛸퇔ꎬ웤쿖뷰쇷내헕룟샻듻샻싊뷸탐쳹쿖ꎬ쿖횵캪뢺ꆣ튲뻍쫇1쮵ꎬ쪵볊횧뢶뗄샻싊룟폚룟샻듻샻싊ꆣ벴 M−g(k−1)Ce<0ꆣ ∑i,tkk=1뛸쟒ꎬ퓚헽뎣쟩뿶쿂ꎬퟮ퓧믱뗃뷰뗄닎폫헟쯹쳡릩뗄샻싊ퟮ룟ꎬ웤쿖뷰쇷내헕룟샻듻샻싊쳹쿖뫳뗄횵튲쫇ퟮ킡뗄ꆣ쯹틔닎폫헟뗄펯뿷쫇튻쳵쿲짏뗄쟺쿟ꆣ떱좻ꎬ평폚죝틗쫜떽춻랢쫂볾뗄펰쿬ꎬ룃쟺쿟튲믡돶쿖쿲쿂췤쟺뗄쟩뿶ꆣ Hꎺ뛔폚뷰뗄릩룸헟뛸퇔ꎬ웤쿖뷰쇷내헕룟샻듻샻싊뷸탐쳹쿖ꎬ쿖횵캪헽ꆣ튲뻍쫇2쮵ꎬ쪵볊믱뗃뗄샻싊룟폚룟샻듻샻싊ꆣ벴 6 틲캪M퓚쪱뿌t늻탨튪횧뢶쿖뷰쇷ꎬ뛸M탨튪퓚쪱뿌t횧뢶K−pꆣ M−1MMM−1M−1뗚 5 튳 릲 10 튳
쏱볤뷰죚뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹뫍럧쿕럖컶ꎺ살ퟔ뇪믡뗄볬퇩 M−g(k−1)Ce>0 ∑i,tkk=1죽ꆢ뇪믡뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹맀볆 퓚럖컶쇋뇪믡쿖뷰쇷믺훆뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ컒쏇뻍뿉틔췆떼돶뇪믡틾몬뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹ꆣ놾컄쯹폐뗄샻싊뚼폃솬탸뢴샻쓪샻싊뇭쪾ꆣ 볙짨컒쏇럖컶뗄쪱뗣캪tꆣt떽t,i=2,...M뗄샻싊캪rꆣ퓚듦퓚돤럖뺺헹뗄쫐뎡뻹뫢11ii−1쳵볾쿂ꎬ MPr(C)=0,∀i=1,2,...,Mꎬ ∑i,tjj=1웤훐Pr듺뇭쿖횵ꆣ햹뾪컒쏇뻍뿉틔뗃떽ꎺ M−1−(k−1)rk−1(M−1)×(K−p)−K−Ke=0 ꎨ1ꎩ 1∑k=2M−1−r−(k−1)r1k−1−2K+p+[(M−2)×(K−p)+K]e−Ke=0 ꎨ2ꎩ 12∑k=3… i−1−(j−1)r−(i−1)rj−1i−1−2K+p+(−K+p)e+[(i−1)×K+(M−i)×(K−p)]e1∑j=2 ꎨiꎩ M−1−(k−1)rk−1Ke=0∑k=i+1… M−1−(k−1)r−(M−1)rk−1M−1−2K+p−(K−p)e+MKe=0 (M) 1∑kk=2랽돌ퟩퟜ릲폐M랽돌ꎬM-1룶캴횪쫽ꎬ폐뿉쓜컞뷢ꆣ떫쫇탒퓋뗄쫇ꎬ헢룶랽돌ퟩ컒쏇뿉틔쟳돶캨튻뷢ꆣ ꎨ1ꎩ-ꎨ2ꎩꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽ꎺ −r−r11(M−1)×(K−p)−K−Ke+2K−p−[(M−2)×(K−p)+K]e=0 112(M−2)(K−p)+2K2r=ln 1M(K−p)1ꎨ2ꎩ-ꎨ3ꎩꎬ컒쏇뿉틔냑r,k=3,4,...,M−1풼뗴ꎬ횻쪣쿂r,rꎬ룹뻝짏쏦볆쯣뗄rꎬk121컒쏇뿉틔맀볆돶rꆣ 2뗚 6 튳 릲 10 튳
쏱볤뷰죚뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹뫍럧쿕럖컶ꎺ살ퟔ뇪믡뗄볬퇩 틔듋샠췆ꎬ컒쏇뻍뿉틔틀듎볆쯣돶r,r,...,rꎬ듓뛸릹퓬돶헻쳵샻싊웚쿞뷡릹ꆣ 12M−1틲캪뇪믡쯹탎돉뗄샻싊쮮욽쫇튻룶뒿쫐뎡뮯뗄샻싊쮮욽ꎬ평쫐뎡닎폫훷쳥춨맽췪좫뗄쫐뎡뺺헹탐캪쯹듯떽뗄튻룶뻹뫢쮮욽ꆣ헢샠쯆폚튻룶엄싴훆뛈ꎬ뷰평돶볛ퟮ룟ꎨ풸틢쳡릩ퟮ7듳헛뿛ꎩ뗄닎폫헟틀듎믱뗃ꆣ쯹틔퓚헽뎣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ풸틢쳡릩뗄헛뿛쫇뗝복뗄ꎬ랴펳퓚샻싊쮮욽짏뻍쫇샻싊쫇뗝복뗄ꆣ 떫쫇ꎬ평폚뇪믡뗄닎폫죋쫽폐쿞ꎬ탎돉뗄뷰릩쟳맘탄뫜죝틗쫜떽춻랢쫂볾뗄펰쿬ꆣ헢킩춻랢쫂볾벰냼삨헻룶쫐뎡뗄춻랢쫂볾ꎬ튲냼삨닎폫헟볒춥뗄춻랢쫂볾ꆣ헢킩쫂볾뗄랢짺뚼쪹뗃뷰탨쟳뫜죝틗랢짺뇤뚯ꎬ죧뺭뎣떼훂헛뿛늻쫇뗝복ꎬ뛸쫇뗝퓶ꎬ듓뛸뛔뇪믡샻싊닺짺8펰쿬ꆣ펰쿬뗄뷡맻쪹뗃뛌웚뗄샻싊벱뻧쿂붵ꎬ짵훁돶쿖뢺쫽ꎬ뛸뎤웚샻싊퓲믡짏짽ꆣ 떫쫇퓚뇪믡뗄닎폫헟훐ꎬ폐튻늿럖쫇컈뚨뗄뷰릩룸헟ꎬ쯻쏇풸틢쳡릩뗄헛뿛튲쫇럇뎣컈뚨뗄ꎬ췹췹뚼쫇뇪믡쯹맦뚨뗄ퟮ킡헛뿛ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ뇪믡뗄뎤웚샻싊쫇뇈뷏컈뚨뗄ꆣ 캪듋ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽뇪믡샻싊웚쿞뷡릹뗄튻킩퇩횤탔볙짨ꎺ Hꎺ퓚헽뎣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뇪믡뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹쫇쿲쿂뗄튻쳵쟺쿟ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ평폚쫜떽뛌웚춻3랢쫂볾뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛌웚샻싊폐뿉쓜랢짺춻뇤ꎬ샻싊웚쿞뷡릹쿲짏쟣킱ꆣ Hꎺ뇪믡뗄뎤웚샻싊뇈뷏컈뚨ꆣ 4쪵횤볬퇩 캪쇋뛔짏쏦폐맘뇪믡뗄볙짨뷸탐퇩횤ꎬ컒쏇춨맽뷼10쓪뗄룺ퟙ뗷닩쫕벯쇋탭뛠뇪믡쪵볊퓋탐뗄쫽뻝ꎬ냼삨뇪믡뗄맦쒣ꆢ닎폫죋쫽ꆢ닎볓맦퓲뗈ꆣ쯹쫕벯뗄쫽뻝훷튪살ퟔ폚뢣붨쪡뚫쓏퇘몣쒳룶쏱볤뷰죚쪮럖랢듯뗄쿘돇ꆣ컒쏇쯹톡퓱뗄뛔쿳캪쒳룶퓚룃뗘랽듓쫂뇪믡믮뚯쪮폠쓪뛸쎻폐랢짺떹믡럧늨뗄믡춷ꆣ룃믡춷평폚웤솼뫃뗄쏱볤탅폃뛸믱뗃쇋닎폫헟뗄튻훂죏춬ꎬ쯹틔쯽ퟩ횯뗄뇪믡튻횱뚼퓚붡뾵ꆢ욽컈ꆢ폐탲뗘랢햹ꆣ 腩裪腪 폐맘닎폫헟펯뿷볙짨뗄쪵횤볬퇩 룹뻝쏱볤뗄튻냣쟩뿶ꎬ컒쏇볙짨룟샻듻샻싊캪퓂샻싊%ꆣ퓚헢룶볙짨쿂ꎬ컒쏇볆쯣돶늻춬뇪믡닎폫헟내헕룟샻듻샻싊뷸탐쳹쿖뗄펯뿷럖늼ꆣ캪쇋뺡뿉쓜뗄업돽룶뇰춻랢쫂볾뗄9펰쿬ꎬ놾컄뗄쫽뻝닉폃쇋벸룶춬쪱뷸탐뗄뇪믡쫽뻝뗄욽뻹횵ꆣ헛뿛싊뫍닎폫헟펯뿷춼볆쯣뷡맻닎볻춼1뫍춼2ꆣ 듓뇪믡뗄헛뿛싊뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ쯼쫇튻쳵믹놾쿲짏뗄쟺쿟ꎬ뇭쏷쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄췆동ꎬ뇪믡닎폫헟쯹믱뗃뗄쿖뷰쇷쫇훰붥퓶볓뗄ꎬ헢럻뫏컒쏇뛔뇪믡뗄헽뎣에뛏ꆣ떫훐볤뮹듦퓚ퟅ튻킩늨뚯ꎬ뇭쏷쇋쫐뎡춻랢쫂볾뛔쿖뷰쇷뗄펰쿬ꆣ 듓펯뿷춼럖컶ꎬ듳풼튻냫뗄죋캪뢺쫽ꎬ튻냫뗄죋캪헽쫽ꆣ캪뢺쫽뗄닎폫헟쫴폚뷰뗄탨쟳헟ꎬ쯹횧뢶뗄샻싊뎬맽룟샻듻샻싊ꎬ퓚뇪믡훐튲뇈뷏퓧뗘믱뗃뷰ꆣ뛸쇭튻냫뗄죋쫴폚ퟔ벺뗄릩룸헟ꎬ쯹믱뗃뗄샻싊뎬맽룟샻듻샻싊ꎬ퓚뇪믡훐믱뗃뷰뗄쪱볤튲뇈뷏동ꆣ펯뿷쟺쿟믹놾짏쫇튻쳵쿲짏뗄쟺쿟ꎬ헢횤쪵쇋컒쏇짏쏦뗄볙짨ꆣ떫쫇훐볤튲춬퇹뗄듦퓚ퟅ튻킩췤쟺ꎬ 7 떱좻ꎬ평폚뇪믡튻냣뚼폐맦뚨헛뿛뗄ퟮ뗍쿞뛈ꎬ헢뛔뇪믡뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹믡폐튻뚨뗄펰쿬ꆣ 8 헢룶뷡맻뿉틔춨맽뛔짏쏦랽돌ퟩ뗄럖컶뫜죝틗뗘뗃떽ꆣ 9쯹폃뗄쫽뻝쫇1999쓪9퓂뾪쪼뗄30*200뇪믡ꆣ닎폫죋쫽30죋ꎬ뇪믡맦쒣캪200죋쏱뇒ꎬ쎿죽룶퓂볓뇪1듎ꆣ 뗚 7 튳 릲 10 튳
쏱볤뷰죚뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹뫍럧쿕럖컶ꎺ살ퟔ뇪믡뗄볬퇩 헢랴펳쇋쫐뎡춻랢쫂볾뗄펰쿬ꆣ폐맘뇪믡펯뿷뗄볙짨H,H뚼믹놾믱뗃쇋횤쪵ꆣ 12 춼1ꎺ뇪믡닎폫헟쿖뷰쇷뗄헛뿛싊 헛뿛싊%%%%헛뿛싊%%%051015202530훐뇪헟 춼2ꎺ늻춬뇪믡닎폫헟뗄펯뿷춼 룷듎훐뇪헟펯뿷춼6004002000-200051015202530-400-600-800뗚i룶훐뇪헟 腩鏱腪 폐맘뇪믡샻싊웚쿞뷡릹볙짨뗄쪵횤볬퇩 컒쏇룹뻝뗚죽늿럖뗄볆쯣랽램ꎬ샻폃쪵볊쫽뻝뛔뇪믡뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹뷸탐쇋맀볆ꆣ맀볆뗄뷡맻닎볻춼3ꆣ 컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ뛌웚샻싊뚼늻쿱헽뎣쟩뿶쓇퇹ꎬ돊쿂붵쟷쫆ꎬ헢랴펳쇋뛌웚쫂볾뗄펰쿬ꆣ떫쫇뎤웚샻싊쮮욽뚼쿠떱컈뚨ꎬ늢믹놾돊쿂붵쟷쫆ꎬ헢랴펳쇋뇪믡샻싊웚쿞뷡릹퓚뎤웚짏뗄컈뚨탔ꆣ볙짨HꎬH튲뚼뗃떽쇋퇩횤ꆣ 34 춼3ꎺ뇪믡뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹 뗚 8 튳 릲 10 튳 헛뿛싊펯뿷뷰뛮
쏱볤뷰죚뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹뫍럧쿕럖컶ꎺ살ퟔ뇪믡뗄볬퇩 샻싊%%%샻싊%%%1357911131517192123 뇪믡럧쿕뿘훆뗄믺훆럖컶 뇪믡뗄럧쿕훷튪쫇캥풼럧쿕ꎬ벴닎폫헟퓚뺺뇪믱뗃뷰횮뫳늻돐떣뮹뿮뗄퓰죎ꎬ듓뛸쪹뗃뷰뗄릩룸헟컞램퓚쪣폠뗄쪱볤쓚내웚믱뗃늹뎥뷰ꆣ퓚쏱볤뷰죚죧듋랢듯ꆢ떹믡럧늨죧듋욵랱뗄뚫쓏퇘몣뗘쟸ꎬ룃믡춷ퟩ횯뗄뇪믡쓜릻뺭샺쪮폠쓪뛸듓살쎻폐맽랢짺맽닎믡헟뗄캥풼쫂볾ꎬ돤럖랴펳돶쯽퓚럧쿕뿘훆짏뗄돉릦횮뒦ꆣ헢킩돉릦뗄뺭퇩뛔폚컒맺맦랶뫍랢햹헢킩쏱볤뷰죚ퟩ횯ꎬ뻟폐쿠떱뗄뷨본틢틥ꆣ ퟜ뷡헢킩뇪믡뗄럧쿕뿘훆듫쪩ꎬ뿉틔랢쿖튻룶ퟮ놾훊뗄돉릦횮뒦퓚폚뛔뇪믡헢훖쏱볤뷰죚탎쪽릦쓜뗄헽좷뷧뚨ꆣ쯼뗄뚨캻쫇퓚헽맦뷰죚컞램랢믓ퟷ폃뗄쳵볾쿂돐떣웰쏱볤뗄뷰죚횧돖릦쓜ꆣ쯼뗄솢ퟣ뗣쫇춨맽뷰릩룸헟뫍탨쟳헟뗄ퟩ뫏ꎬ춨맽뷰릩룸헟쳡릩뗄뷰캪뷰탨쟳헟쳡릩죚럾컱ꎬ싺ퟣ탨쟳헟쒳훖쳘뚨뗄죚탨쟳ꆣ헢훖쳘뚨죚탨쟳뗄쳘헷쫇ꎺꎨ1ꎩ뷰맦쒣폐쿞ꎬ훷튪쫇튻킩킡뛮뗄뛌웚죚ꎻꎨ2ꎩ뷰탨쟳뇈뷏죝틗쫜떽볒춥춻랢쫂볾뗄펰쿬ꆣ헢킩탨쟳쫇헽맦뷰죚쯹컞램싺ퟣ뗄ꆣ짏쏦럖컶뗄쓇킩뇪믡ꎬ뚼돤럖솢ퟣ폚싺ퟣ헢킩쳘뚨뗄죚탨쟳ꎬ듓풴춷짏뻍뿘훆쇋춨맽뇪믡뷸탐춶믺ꆢ햩욭뗈캥풼쫂볾뗄랢짺ꎬ좷놣헻룶뇪믡ퟩ횯쓜릻폐탲쮳샻뗘퓋탐ꆣ 뻟쳥쮵살ꎬ헢킩돉릦뇪믡뗄럧쿕뿘훆듫쪩냼삨ꎺ ꎨ튻ꎩ퇏룱뗄죫믡짳닩듫쪩ꆣ헢훖죫믡짳닩듫쪩늻쫇춨맽헽맦뗄닆닺ힴ뿶뗷닩뗈탎쪽뷸탐ꎬ뛸쫇틀삵폚쏱볤뒫춳뗄탅폃죏쪶ꆣ쿠뇈폚헽맦뷰죚뗄짳닩ꎬ헢훖쏱볤탅폃뗷닩탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄돌뛈튪킡뗃뛠ꎬ틲캪쯻쏇횮볤뇋듋뮥쿠죏쪶ꎬ죕뎣뗄뷓뒥뫜뛠ꎬ쿠뮥뗄탅쾢붻쇷튲뫜욵랱ꎻ뛸쟒뗷닩뗄붻틗돉놾튲킡뗃뛠ꎬ쳥쿖퓚늻탨튪뷨훺쿖듺뮯뗄럖컶쫖뛎뷸탐탅폃럖컶ꎬ횻탨튪틀뾿욽쪱뷓뒥쯹탎돉뗄죏쪶뻍뿉틔뛔닎폫헟뗄탅폃ힴ뿶뷸탐뗷닩ꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ뷰맦쒣뗄퇏룱뿘훆ꆣ평폚뇪믡뗄솢ퟣ뗣쫇싺ퟣ닎폫헟킡뛮ꆢ뛌웚뗄쇙쪱탔뷰탨쟳ꎬ뛸늻쫇캪닎폫헟뗄춶믺쳡릩욽첨ꎬ쯹틔뇪믡뿘훆럧쿕뫜훘튪뗄튻룶듫쪩뻍쫇뷰맦쒣뗄퇏룱뿘훆ꆣ룃믡춷뗄뇪믡뷰뛮튻냣뚼퓚200풪ퟳ폒ꎬퟮ듳뗄늻뎬맽500풪ꆣ헻룶뇪믡뗄뷰맦쒣늻뎬맽2췲풪ꆣ쯹틔벴쪹닎폫헟폐춶믺ꆢ캥풼뗄뚯믺ꎬ뇪믡쯹쳡릩뗄뚯솦튲쫇풶풶늻ퟣꆣ뛸쟒헢킩맦쒣듳뚼퓚닎폫헟폐쓜솦돐떣뗄랶캧횮쓚ꎬ벴쪹랢짺캥풼ꎬ튲쓜릻춨맽뛔쿠맘닆닺뗄뿘훆뗈듫쪩살벰쪱뗘쏖늹ꆣ ꎨ죽ꎩ믡춷뛔뷰쪹폃뗄퇏룱뿘훆ꆣ퓚뇪믡돉솢쪱ꎬ믡춷뻍믱뗃쇋닎폫헟쳡릩뗄튻뇊뷰ꆣ죧뫎쪹폃헢뇊뷰뛔뇪믡뗄럧쿕뻟폐훘튪뗄펰쿬ꆣ룹뻝짏쏦뗄럖컶ꎬ퓚뇪믡훐뷰릩룸헟쯹믱뗃뗄샻싊튪뎬맽룟샻듻ꎬ쯹틔폐킩믡춷캪쇋믱뗃룼룟뗄믘놨ꎬ뻍붫헢킩뷰춶죫떽쇭췢튻룶뷰뛮룼룟뗄뇪믡훐ꎬ탎돉쇋쯹캽뗄ꆰ믡훐믡ꆱꆣ닣닣뗾볓ꎬ뻍탎돉쇋쯹캽뇪믡뗄뷰ퟖ뗚 9 튳 릲 10 튳
쏱볤뷰죚뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹뫍럧쿕럖컶ꎺ살ퟔ뇪믡뗄볬퇩 쯾뷡릹ꆣ훐볤쒳룶솴쳵뛏쇑ꎬ뻍믡떼훂헻룶뷰ퟖ쯾떹쯺ꎬ탎돉퇏훘뗄떹믡럧늨ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ튪뿘훆뇪믡뗄헻쳥럧쿕ꎬ뻍뇘탫뛔믡춷쯹햼폃뷰뗄쪹폃뷸탐퇏룱뗄뿘훆ꆣ짏쏦럖컶뗄헢킩뇪믡듓살늻냑쯹돯벯뗄뷰닎폫떽룼룟듳뷰뛮뗄뇪믡훐ꎬ뛸쫇춨맽틔튻룶쏱볤탅듻뗄랽쪽붫잮뷨룸쒳룶탅뿉뾿뗄탨쟳헟ꆣ헢훖ퟶ램뛔헻룶쫐뎡뻟폐믽벫뗄ퟷ폃ꎺꎨ1ꎩ평폚뷨룸쒳룶탅뿉뾿뗄탨쟳헟ꎬ쯹틔뮹뿮믹놾짏폐놣횤ꎬ탅폃럧쿕퓚ퟔ벺뿉뿘뗄랶캧쓚ꎻꎨ2ꎩ벴쪹듻뿮컞램뎥뮹ꎬ펰쿬떽뗄튲횻쫇쒳룶뇪믡ꎬ뛔웤쯻뗄뇪믡퓲늻믡닺짺펰쿬ꎬ듓뛸뻍듳듳붵뗍쇋헻룶뇪믡쫐뎡뗄쾵춳탔럧쿕ꆣ 뷡싛 룹뻝짏쏦뛔뇪믡쿖뷰쇷ꆢ샻싊웚쿞뷡릹틔벰럧쿕뿘훆뗄퇐뺿ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎺ뇪믡퓚쿖듺쏱볤뷰죚쳥쾵훐랢믓ퟅ늻뿉쳦듺뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ펦룃퓚풭폐믹뒡짏맦랶뫍랢햹ꆣ맦랶뫍랢햹뇪믡뗄맘볼퓚폚죧뫎뿘훆뇪믡뗄럧쿕ꆣ놾컄쯹럖컶뗄튻킩돉릦낸샽쳡릩쇋튻킩폐맘뗄쮼슷뫍붨틩ꆣ듋췢ꎬ뻍캢맛뷰죚뗄뷇뛈ꎬ놾컄뮹뗃돶쇋폐맘뇪믡샻싊뗄튻킩믹놾뷡싛ꎺ ꎨ튻ꎩ뇪믡훐뷰탨쟳헟쳡릩뗄샻싊룟폚춬웚룟샻듻샻싊쮮욽ꎬ랴펳퓚쿖뷰쇷짏뻍쫇내헕룟샻듻샻싊쳹쿖쫇뢺횵ꆣ평폚죝틗쫜떽쫐뎡춻랢쫂볾뗄펰쿬ꎬ닎폫헟뗄펯뿷늢늻튻뚨뻍쫇튻쳵쿲짏뗄쟺쿟ꎬ퓚훐볤죝틗랢짺췤쟺ꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ뇪믡훐쯹폐닎폫헟뗄쿖뷰쇷내헕룟샻듻샻싊쳹쿖횮뫳볓ퟜ횮뫍캪0ꆣ쯼쫇튻룶쯹폐닎폫헟ꎬ냼삨믡춷뫍믡뷅횮볤뗄쇣뫍늩?ꆣ웤훐ꎬ믡춷뗄쫕틦쫇만뚨뗄ꎬ뻍쫇돵쪼톺뷰퓚뇪믡듦탸맽돌훐뗄쪱볤볛횵ꆣ ꎨ죽ꎩ퓚헽뎣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뇪믡뗄샻싊웚쿞뷡릹쫇쿲쿂뗄튻쳵쟺쿟ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ평폚쫜떽뛌웚춻랢쫂볾뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛌웚샻싊폐뿉쓜랢짺춻뇤ꎬ돶쿖뢺쫽ꎬ샻싊웚쿞뷡릹쿲짏쟣킱ꆣ ꎨ쯄ꎩ뇪믡뗄뎤웚샻싊뇈뷏컈뚨ꆣ 닎뾼컄쿗ꎺ 뛅뎯퓋ꎬ훐맺맽뛈뷰죚싛ꆾRꆿꎬ쿃쏅듳톧ꎬ2001ꆣ 뫎맣컄ꎬ뫏ퟷ뷰죚ퟩ횯뗄훆뛈탔벨킧첽컶ꆾJꆿ, 훐맺얩듥뺭볃ꎬ1999ꎨ2ꎩꎬ36ꎭ41ꆣ 뫎쳯ꎬꆰ뗘쿂뺭볃ꆱ폫맜훆킧싊ꎺ쏱펪탅폃뫏램탔컊쳢쪵횤퇐뺿ꆾJꆿ,뷰죚퇐뺿ꎬ2002ꎨ11ꎩꎬ100ꎭ107ꆣ 붭쫯쾼ꎬ훐맺뗘쿂뷰죚ꆾMꆿꎬ뢣붨죋쏱돶냦짧ꎬ2001ꆣ 붭쫯쾼ꆢ쟘맺슥ꎬ탅듻엤룸샭싛뫍쏱볤뷰죚훐뗄샻싊ꆾJꆿꎬ얩듥뷰죚퇐뺿ꎬ2000ꎨ7ꎩꎬ4ꎭ7ꆣ 샮떤뫬ꎬ얩듥쏱볤뷰죚랢햹쿖ힴ폫훘뗣룄룯헾닟ꆾJꆿꎬ뷰죚퇐뺿ꎬ2000ꎨ5ꎩꎬ118ꎭ125ꆣ 쇖틣럲ꎬ샮폂뻼ꎬ훐킡뷰죚믺릹랢햹폫훐킡웳튵죚ꆾJꆿ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꎬ2001ꎨ1ꎩꎬ10ꎭ18ꆣ 쪷뷺뒨ꆢ쯯뢣맺ꆢ퇏마뻼ꎬ쫐뎡짮뮯훐쏱볤뷰죚튵뗄탋웰ꆪꆪ틔헣붭슷쟅돇쫐탅폃짧캪샽ꆾJꆿꎬ뺭볃퇐뺿ꎬ1997ꎨ12ꎩꎬ45ꎭ50ꆣ 쳆쫙쓾ꎬ룶죋톡퓱폫춶훈탲ꆾMꆿ,훐맺짧믡뿆톧돶냦짧ꎬ1999ꆣ 헅뻼ꎬ룄룯뫳훐맺얩듥뗄럇헽맦뷰죚늿쏅ꎺ컂훝낸샽ꆾCꆿꎬ훐맺훆뛈뇤잨뗄낸샽퇐뺿ꎨ뗚뛾뻭ꎩꎬ헅쫯맢ꎬ훐맺닆헾뺭볃돶냦짧ꎬ1999ꎬ132ꎭ159ꆣ 헂쿾뮢ꎬ컒맺떱잰뗄믒즫뷰죚싛ꆾJꆿꎬ닆쎳뺭볃ꎬ1996ꎨ3ꎩꎬ40ꎭ46ꆣ 뗚 10 튳 릲 10 튳
