1쓚짺퓶뎤폫뻍튵헾닟쮼뾼 ∗얣쿾랫,엋킡뒺 (퓆쓏듳톧 뺭볃톧풺ꎬ퓆쓏 삥쏷 650091) 햪튪ꎺ뒫춳샭싛죏캪뺭볃퓶뎤폫뻍튵퓶뎤횮볤펦돊헽쿠맘맘쾵ꎬ떫쓚짺퓶뎤샭싛좴쳡돶뺭볃뗄퓶뎤폫뻍튵퓶뎤횮볤늢늻튻뚨돊헽쿠맘맘쾵ꎬ룃샭싛쯹냼몬뗄뻍튵헾닟몬틢쫇ꎺ헾뢮뷢뻶뻍튵쓑쳢뗄맘볼늢늻퓚폚욬쏦ힷ쟳뻍튵솿뗄삩듳ꎬ뛸퓚폚춨맽뛔뷌폽쫂튵뗄맄샸뫍횧돖살놣횤죋솦놾뗄늻뛏믽샛ꎬ듓뛸캪뺭볃뗄돖탸퓶뎤쳡릩쓚짺퓶뎤뚯틲ꎬ늻뛏퓙짺탂뗄뻍튵룚캻ꎬ캪뻍튵컊쳢뗄뷢뻶쳡릩뎤웚놣헏ꆣ 맘볼듊ꎺ뺭볃퓶뎤ꎻ쓚짺튪쯘ꎻ뷌폽춶 훐춼럖샠뫅ꎺ 컄쿗뇪쪶싫ꎺA 튻ꆢ쿠맘샭싛볲튪믘맋 쓚짺퓶뎤샭싛ꎨendogenous growth theoryꎩ쫇20쫀볍80쓪듺틔살퓚컷랽맺볒랢햹웰살뗄튻훖탂뗄ꆢ폃틔뷢쫍뺭볃퓶뎤쓚퓚풭틲뗄뺭볃샭싛ꆣ뺭볃퓶뎤샭싛ퟔ닺짺틔살60뛠쓪뗄쪱볤샯ꎬ퓸폐맽죽듎듳뗄랢햹ꎺ뗚튻듎쫇맾싞뗂ꆪ뛠십쒣쪽뗄닺짺뫍랢햹ꎻ뗚뛾듎쫇탂맅뗤퓶뎤쒣쪽뗄닺짺뫍랢햹ꎻ뗚죽듎쫇뷼웚뗄탂퓶뎤샭싛뗄닺짺뫍랢햹ꆣ 20쫀볍40쓪듺쒩ꎬ펢맺뺭볃톧볒맾싞뗂뫍쏀맺뺭볃톧볒뛠십틀뻝뾭뛷쮹쫕죫뻶뚨싛뗄쮼쿫ꎬ붫뾭뛷쮹샭싛뚯첬뮯뫍뎤웚뮯ꎬ췆돶쇋튻룶뎤웚뗄ꆢ놻죋쏇돆캪ꆰ맾싞뗂ꎭ뛠십쒣탍ꆱ뗄뻹뫢퓶뎤쒣탍ꆣ룃쒣탍뗄뻹뫢퓶뎤랽돌뿉틔볲떥뇭쪾캪ꎺ g=s/c 쪽훐ꎬg뇭쪾닺돶믲쫕죫뗄퓶뎤싊ꎬs듺뇭뒢탮싊ꎬc듺뇭늻뇤뗄놾닺돶뇈ꆣ룃쒣탍죏캪튪쪵쿖뺭볃뗄뻹뫢퓶뎤뻍뇘탫싺ퟣꎺgw=ga=gn뗄뫢뗈맘쾵ꎬ벴ꎺ횻폐떱뻹뫢퓶뎤싊gw뗈폚쪵볊퓶뎤싊ga늢쟒뗈폚ퟔ좻퓶뎤싊gn쪱ꎬ뺭볃닅쓜쪵쿖뻹뫢퓶뎤ꎻ룼폐짵헟ꎬ맾싞뗂ꎭ뛠십쒣탍훐ꎬ뺭볃뗄퓶뎤훷튪틀삵폚뒢탮싊sꆢ놾닺돶뇈c뫍샍뚯솦뗄퓶뎤ꎬ뛸헢벸훖튪쯘뗄퓶뎤뻹평췢짺솦솿뻶뚨ꎬ틲뛸쪵볊짏퓚맾ꎭ뛠쒣탍훐쎻폐죎뫎튻훖뿉뿘틲쯘쓜릻놣헏뺭볃뻹뫢퓶뎤ힴ첬뗄쪵쿖ꆣ튲헽쫇틲캪룃샭싛쯹싛횤뗄ꆰ뻹뫢퓶뎤ꆱힴ첬죧듋쓑틔뛒쿖ꎬ쯹틔폐죋붫헢훖뻹뫢퓶뎤돆캪ꆰ죐럦짏뗄뻹뫢ꆱꆣ 1956쓪ꎬ쏀맺뺭볃톧볒쯷싞뫍쮹췺뗈죋쳡돶쇋튻룶탂뗄뺭볃퓶뎤쒣탍ꎬ돆캪ꆰ쯷싞ꎭ쮹췺쒣탍ꆱꎬ룃쒣탍뺭맽훚뛠뺭볃톧볒뗄탞헽뫍랢햹ꎬ탎돉쇋ꆰ탂맅뗤퓶뎤쒣탍ꆱꆣ탂맅뗤퓶뎤쒣탍뗄볙짨잰쳡쫇ꎺꎨ1ꎩ좫짧믡횻짺닺튻훖닺욷ꎻꎨ2ꎩ뒢탮몯쫽캪SꎽsYꎬs캪뎣쫽ꎻꎨ3ꎩ늻듦퓚벼쫵뷸늽ꎬ튲늻듦퓚놾헛뻉ꎻꎨ4ꎩ짺닺뗄맦쒣놨돪늻뇤ꎻꎨ5ꎩ샍뚯솦내튻룶늻뇤뗄뇈싊n퓶뎤ꆣ퓚헢킩볙뚨쿂ꎬ탂맅뗤퓶뎤쒣탍뗄랽돌쪽뿉틔뇭쪾캪ꎺ sfꎨkꎩ=k+nk 쪽훐ꎬk=K/L벴놾샍뚯뇈ꎻfꎨkꎩꎽy=Y/L 벴쎿룶샍뚯솦뗄욽뻹짺닺솿ꎻS캪뒢탮뇈샽ꎬn캪죋뿚퓶뎤싊ꆣ룃랽돌쮵쏷ꎺ튻룶짧믡뗄죋뻹뒢탮뿉틔놻폃폚솽룶늿럖ꎺ튻늿럖캪죋뻹놾퓶볓솿ꎨ놾닺돶뇈ꎩk, 놻돆캪놾뗄짮뮯ꎻ쇭튻늿럖쫇캪쎿튻퓶볓뗄죋뿚엤놸뗄욽뻹 1
놾짨놸nk, 헢놻돆캪놾뗄맣뮯ꆣ쯷싞뗈죋죏캪ꎬ짧믡뺭볃믮뚯훐듦퓚튻훖믺훆ꎬ헢훖믺훆믡뛔kꎨ죋뻹놾솿ꎩퟷ돶뗷헻ꎬ듓뛸놣횤뺭볃믮뚯쿲ퟅ뻹뫢뗄랽쿲퓋탐ꆣ헢퇹튻살ꎬ탂맅뗤퓶뎤쒣탍뻍뗃돶쇋폫맾뛠쒣탍늻춬뗄뷡싛ꎺ놾훷틥뿉틔퓚돤럖뻍튵뗄쟩뿶쿂놣돖뎤웚뗄컈뚨퓶뎤ꆣ탂맅뗤퓶뎤쒣탍폫맾뛠쒣탍뗄늻춬횮뒦뻍퓚폚솽룶쒣탍뗄볙짨쳵볾늻튻퇹ꎬ잰헟볙짨놾폫샍뚯퓚짺닺짏쫇뿉틔쿠뮥듺쳦뗄ꎬ뛸뫳헟퓲ퟷ쇋놾폫샍뚯늻쓜듺쳦뗄볙짨ꆣ퓚맾뛠쒣탍훐ꎬv놻죏캪쫇튻룶뎣쫽ꎬ헢틢캶ퟅK늻쓜놻L쯹듺쳦ꎻ뛸퓚탂맅뗤퓶뎤쒣탍훐ꎬK뫍L쫇뿉틔쿠뮥쳦듺뗄ꆣ헽틲캪듋ꎬ탂맅뗤퓶뎤쒣탍뗃틔죆뾪맾뛠쒣탍뗄ꆰ죐럦뻹뫢ꆱ쳘헷ꎬ듓뛸횤쏷뎤웚뻹뫢뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ늻맽ꎬ탂맅뗤퓶뎤쒣탍죔좻낵쪾ꎬꎨ1ꎩ퓚튻룶죋뿚퓶뎤캪쇣ꆢ쟒늻듦퓚췢짺뗄벼쫵뇤뮯뗄뺭볃짧믡훐ꎬ퓶뎤싊믡쟷폚쇣ꎻꎨ2ꎩ죋뻹춶쫕틦싊뫍죋뻹닺돶퓶뎤싊쫇뗝복뗄ꎬ쯦쪱볤뗄췆틆ꎬ룷맺뗄릤싊뫍놾닺돶뇈붫믡쟷춬ꆣ탂맅뗤퓶뎤샭싛뫍맾뛠쒣탍뗄짏쫶럖컶쿔좻늻럻뫏쫀뷧뺭볃랢햹뗄쿖쪵쟩뿶ꎬ뫳살뗄탭뛠컷랽퇐뺿헟랢쿖ꎬ짺닺싊믲죋뻹GNP뗄퓶뎤싊퓚뎤웚떱훐돊쿖돶뗝퓶쟷쫆ꎻ탂맅뗤쒣탍쯹풤웚뗄룷맺죋뻹쫕죫쮮욽붫쟷폚뻹뗈뗄쿖쿳늢쎻폐랢짺ꎬ쿠랴ꎬ룷맺죋뻹쫕죫쮮욽뗄닮틬헽퓚늻뛏볓듳ꎬ뛸쟒놾튲늢쎻폐듓뢻맺쇷쿲쟮맺ꆣ 뛾ꆢ쓚짺퓶뎤샭싛훐뗄뻍튵헾닟몬틢 20쫀볍80쓪듺틔살ꎬ틔쫦뛻듄ꆢ싞쒬ꆢ슬뾨쮹ꆢ쮹뛠뿋뫍낢컂.퇮뗈죋캪듺뇭뗄뺭볃톧볒붫횪쪶ꆢ죋솦놾뫍뇟룉뇟톧뗈틲쯘틽죫떽뺭볃퓶뎤쒣쪽훐살ꎬ뛔탂맅뗤퓶뎤샭싛뷸탐쇋좫쏦뗄탞헽뫍랢햹ꎬ쳡돶쇋좫탂뗄퓶뎤맛ꎺ죋뻹닺돶뿉틔컞쿞퓶뎤ꎬ늢쟒퓶뎤싊뿉쓜쯦쪱볤뇤뮯뛸훰붥뗝퓶ꎬ벴쯦ퟅ놾듦솿뗄퓶볓ꎬ춶싊뫍놾쫕틦싊뿉쓜뗝퓶뛸늻쫇뗝복ꆣ퓚헢튻탂뗄퓶뎤샭싛쒣탍훐ꎬ벼쫵늻퓙쫇튻룶췢짺뗄ꆢ죋샠컞램뿘훆뗄뚫컷ꎬ뛸쫇죋샠돶폚ퟔ샻탨튪뛸뷸탐춶뗄닺컯ꎬ헢뻍붫벼쫵뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄펰쿬쓚짺뮯쇋ꆣ헽틲캪듋ꎬ헢튻샭싛폖놻돆캪쓚짺퓶뎤샭싛ꆣ쓚짺퓶뎤샭싛쯹튪뷢뻶뗄튻룶훘튪컊쳢쫇첽톰뺭볃퓶뎤뗄룹놾풭틲ꎬ뛔듋ꎬ룃샭싛죏캪뺭볃퓶뎤늻쫇췢늿솦솿ꎬ죧죋뿚퓶뎤ꆢ벼쫵뷸늽뗈틲쯘ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꎬ뛸쫇평폚뺭볃쳥쾵쓚늿뗄솦솿ꎬ죧횪쪶췢틧ꆢ죋솦놾춶ꆢ뾪랢폫퇐뺿ꆢ쫕틦뗝퓶ꆢ샍뚯럖릤ꆢ뇟톧뇟룉ꆢ뾪럅뺭볃뫍슢뛏뮯뗈틲쯘ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꆣ 쓚짺퓶뎤샭싛뗄짏쫶룷훖맛뗣퓌몭ퟅ튻쾵쇐뗄뻍튵헾닟몬틢ꎺ뗚튻ꎬ쓚짺퓶뎤샭싛붫횪쪶뫍튵뮯뗄죋솦놾틽죫퓶뎤쒣탍쓚ꎬ죏캪횪쪶뫍튵죋닅놾믽샛쫇쫕틦뗝퓶뗄헦헽풭틲ꎬ쳡돶튻맺뺭볃뗄퓶뎤훷튪펦틀뾿횪쪶믽샛ꆢ벼쫵뷸늽뫍솦놾뗄퓶뷸뫍쳡룟ꎬ뛸늻쫇죋뿚믲샍뚯솦뗄퓶볓ꎬ헢틢캶ퟅ튻룶맺볒튪좡뗃컈뚨ꆢ돖탸뗄뎤웚뺭볃퓶뎤ꎬ훘튪뗄쫇튪퓶볓횪쪶ꆢ벼쫵뫍죋솦놾뗄믽샛ꎬ틔믱좡헢킩튪쯘닺짺뗄뗝퓶뗄쫕틦ꎬ뛸늻쫇떥뒿뾿죋뿚뗄퓶볓ꆢ뷸뛸뻍튵죋쫽뗄퓶볓살쪵쿖ꎻ뗚뛾ꎬ쓚짺퓶뎤샭싛럅웺쇋벼쫵췢짺뗄볙뚨ꎬ춻돶벼쫵뗄쓚짺탔ꎬ잿뗷듳늿럖벼쫵믲횪쪶뗄믽샛뚼풴ퟔ폚죋쏇뛔쫕틦뫍샻죳뗄ힷ쟳ꆣ헢튻맛뗣죏캪벼쫵뷸늽쫇평탂벼쫵뗄쪹폃살쪵쿖뗄ꎬ뛸죋쏇횮쯹틔믡춶뾪랢쒳쿮탂벼쫵ꎬ쫇틲캪닉폃룃쿮탂벼쫵쫇폐샻뿉춼뗄ꎬ뛸쟒닉폃탂벼쫵뫳퓶볓뗄뻍튵죋쫽쯹듸살뗄짧믡뇟볊쫕틦붫믡쫇뗝퓶뗄ꆣ평듋퇓짬뛸살뗄헾닟몬틢쫇ꎺ헾뢮펦룃뛔웳튵뗄퇐뺿뫍뾪랢볆뮮룸폨믽벫맄샸뫍횧돖ꎬ늢춨맽쫊떱뗄훆뛈짨볆ꎬ쪹웳튵벼쫵뒴탂뗄쮽죋돉놾폫짧믡돉놾쿠튻훂ꎬ캪웳튵뗄벼쫵뒴탂쳡릩돤ퟣ뗄뺭볃듌벤ꎬ쪹뎧짌풸틢퓚헢랽쏦뷸탐듳솿춶ꎬ듓뛸ퟮ훕듯떽삩듳뻍튵뗄쒿뇪ꎻ뗚죽,쓚짺퓶뎤샭싛잿뗷헾뢮헾닟퓚뺭볃랢햹훐뗄훘튪ퟷ폃ꎬ죏캪룷쿮뺭볃헾닟ꎬ죧ꎺ뷌폽늹쳹ꎬ퇐뺿뾪랢ꎬ횪쪶닺좨놣뮤뗈뗈늻뷶횻쫇ퟷ캪튻훖췢퓚뗄틲쯘캬돖뺭볃뗄뎤웚퓶뎤ꎬ쪵볊짏헾뢮헾닟룼쫇뺭볃퓶뎤뗄ꆰ듟뮯볁ꆱꎬ쫇뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쇭튻훖춶죫ꎬ죧맻쎻폐헢튻춶죫ꎬ짺닺몯쫽훐뗄놾뫍샍뚯뗄ퟷ폃뻍믡듳듳붵뗍ꎻ뛸죧맻틽죫릫릲헾닟뗄춶죫ꎬ뺭볃뻍믡돶쿖뎤웚뗄쓚짺퓶뎤ꆣ 쯤좻짏쫶헢킩맛뗣룼뛠뗘쫇튻훖샭싛짏뗄췆닢ꎬ떫평폚쯼잿뗷쇋뷌폽ꆢ퇐랢뫍횪쪶닺좨헾닟퓚뺭볃랢햹뫍뷢뻶뻍튵컊쳢훐뗄훘튪탔ꎬ죏캪헢킩쫇캬돖뺭볃뎤웚ꆢ돖탸퓶뎤뗄훘튪틲 2
쯘ꎬ틲듋쫇횵뗃틽웰컒쏇뗄맘힢뫍훘쫓뗄ꎬ훁짙쯼뿉틔쳡탑컒쏇힢틢떽삩듳뻍튵펦틔뺭볃뗄뎤웚ꆢ돖탸퓶뎤캪잰쳡ꎬ뛸늻쓜횻쫇떥뒿뗘캪뻍튵뛸뻍튵ꆣ뺭볃뗄뎤웚ꆢ돖탸퓶뎤닅쫇뻍튵퓶뎤뗄룹놾잰쳡뫍놣헏ꎬ삩듳뻍튵횻쫇놣돖뺭볃퓶뎤뗄튻훖쫖뛎ꎬ컒쏇뻶늻쓜캪쇋삩듳뻍튵뛸뫶쫓벼쫵뷸늽뗄쓚퓚탨튪ꆣ 죽ꆢ컒맺뷼쓪살뺭볃퓶뎤폫뻍튵퓶뎤뗄쳘헷 컒맺쫇쫀뷧죋뿚듳맺ꎬ샍뚯쫊쇤죋뿚햼쫀뷧1/5틔짏ꎬ뛸컒맺뗄쒿잰뗄맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵횻폐쫀뷧뗄1/30ꎬ평듋뿉볻컒맺뗄뻍튵톹솦쫇쿠떱듳뗄ꆣ20쫀볍90쓪듺훐웚횱떽쿖퓚ꎬ컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤뫍뻍튵퓶뎤횮볤쿔쿖돶헢퇹튻킩믹놾쳘헷ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ뺭볃퓶뎤폫뻍튵퓶뎤늻춬늽ꎬ돊쿖ꆰ룟퓶뎤ꎬ뗍뻍튵ꆱힴ첬ꆣ컒맺뷼쓪살뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈튻횱뷏뿬ꎬ떫춬웚좴쎻폐돶쿖쿠펦뗄뻍튵퓶뎤ꎬGDP뗄뻍튵떯탔돊훰쓪쿂붵쟷쫆ꎺ1985ꆪ1990쓪컒맺GDP뗄뻍튵떯탔캪ꎬ1990ꆪ1995쓪쿂붵떽ꎬ1995ꆪ20002쓪퓲뷸튻늽쿂붵떽ꎬ뻍튵떯탔뗄쿂붵쟷쫆쮵쏷컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뻍튵킧펦풽살풽킡ꎬ3뺭볃뗄뿬쯙퓶뎤뛔뻍튵뗄삭뚯ퟷ폃늻쏷쿔ꎻ ꎨ2ꎩ퓚뺭볃퓶뎤맽돌훐ꎬ쯦ퟅ샍뚯짺닺싊뗄늻뛏쳡룟ꎬ죋쏇뗄ퟜ쳥쫕죫쮮욽훰붥퓶볓ꎬ뺭볃뷡릹튲쯦횮랢짺뇤뮯ꎬ훷튪뇭쿖퓚뗚죽닺튵퓚맺쏱닺횵훐뗄뇈훘퓶듳ꎬ뻍튵죋쫽튲쯦횮퓶볓ꎬ얩튵뻍튵죋쫽훰붥복짙ꆣ뇭1ꆢ뇭2뗄춳볆쫽뻝뻍쮵쏷쇋헢튻쟩뿶ꎺ 뇭1컒맺뷼쓪살훐맺맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵죽듎닺튵릹돉 (%) 쓪럝 뗚튻닺튵 뗚뛾닺튵 뗚죽닺튵 1980 쇏살풴ꎺꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ뗧ퟓ냦 ꎻꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본2002ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧2002ꆣ 뇭2 뷼쓪살훐맺내죽듎닺튵뮮럖뗄뻍튵릹돉 (%) 쓪럝 뗚튻닺튵 뗚뛾닺튵 뗚죽닺튵 1980 3
쇏살풴ꎺꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ뗧ퟓ냦 ꎻꆶ샍뚯춳볆쓪본2003ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧2003쓪ꆣ 떫쫇ꎬ쯦ퟅ닺튵뷡릹늻뛏짽벶ꎬ뗚튻닺튵뗄뻍튵믺믡붫돊뻸뛔복짙뗄쟷쫆ꆣ폐볒맀볆ꎬ얩튵퓚쫀쎳맽뛉웚볤믡복짙2086췲죋뗄뻍튵ꎬ맽뛉웚뷡쫸뫳ꎬ복짙뗄룚캻붫듯떽2556췲죋ꆣ폫듋춬쪱ꎬ쯤좻듓샭싛짏붲컒맺뗄럾컱튵뫍훆퓬튵뻍튵믺믡붫듳솿퓶볓ꎬ떫쫇평폚폐킩탐튵놾폐믺릹돉늻뛏쳡룟ꎬ뻍튵컼뢽솦붫폐쿂붵쟷쫆ꎻ ꎨ3ꎩ쯦ퟅWTO뗄볓죫ꎬ컒맺뻍튵쟩뿶튲돶쿖쇋퓶뎤뮺싽ꆢ뷡릹뇤뮯뢴퓓뗄쟷쫆ꎬ늢틔뷡릹탔쪧튵캪훷튪쳘헷ꆣ틔2002쓪컒맺잰500잿듳탍웳튵벯췅탐튵뷡릹뇤뮯뗄ퟜ쳥쟩뿶캪샽ꎬ뗚튻닺튵쎻폐첫듳뇤뮯ꎬ뗚뛾닺튵뫍뗚죽닺튵폐쯹퓶볓ꎬ듓뻟쳥뗄탐튵랢햹살뾴ꎬ폊뗧춨탅튵ꆢ웻뎵훆퓬튵ꆢ몽뿕퓋쫤튵ꆢ쪯폍쳬좻웸뾪닉튵ꆢ뷰죚튵뗈탐튵퓶뎤뷏뿬ꎬ헢킩탐튵뛠쫇튻킩벼쫵몬솿뫍놾릹돉뷏룟뗄탐튵ꆣ잰500볒웳튵벯췅뗄듓튵죋풱2001쓪캪17574췲죋ꎬ2002쓪쿂붵캪1754췲ꎬ쿂붵럹뛈캪ꎭ% ꆣ닺튵뷡릹뗄짽벶ꎬ쪹춬쪱웚뗄뻍튵컊쳢튲쿔쿖돶뷡릹탔쪧튵쿖쿳ꎬ헢웤훐볈냼삨샍뚯헟컄뮯쯘훊뫍벼쓜폫탂퓶뻍튵믺믡룚캻튪쟳횮볤뗄늻욥엤컊쳢ꎬ튲냼삨샍뚯헟뗄쫊펦쓜솦폫쫐뎡잱퓚믺믡횮볤뗄늻욥엤컊쳢ꆣ 쯄ꆢ탎돉컒맺ꆰ룟퓶뎤ꆢ뗍뻍튵ꆱ뗄풭틲 죧잰쯹쫶ꎬ쯤좻컒맺뺭볃뷼쓪살튻횱놣돖뷏룟뗄퓶뎤ꎬ떫뻍튵좴늢캴폫횮쿠펦퓶뎤ꎬ뛸쫇돶쿖쇋뻍튵싊쿂붵뗄뻖쫆ꎬ쯤좻퓬돉헢튻쿖쿳뗄풭틲쫇뛠랽쏦뗄ꎬ죧쳥훆맬뻍쫇듸살듳엺얩듥뫍돇쫐쪧튵뛓컩뗄훘튪풭틲횮튻ꆣ풭폐쳥훆쿂컒맺얩듥뗄맽쪣뗄샍뚯솦퓚뮧벮훆뛈뗄퇚뮤쿂튻횱쎻폐쿔쿖돶살ꎬ돊틾탔쪧튵ힴ첬ꎬ쯦ퟅ얩듥췁뗘돐냼훆룄룯뗄늻뛏짮죫뫍뮧벮훆뛈뗄떭돶ꎬ얩튵뢻폠샍뚯솦뾪쪼쿔쿖ꎬ뛸돇쫐맽좥퓚ꆰ뗍릤ꎬ맣뻍튵ꆱ뗄헾닟쿂튲퇚룇쇋쪧튵ꎬ쯦ퟅ뺭볃쳥훆룄룯뗄늻뛏짮죫ꎬ풭뢻폠죋풱럖샫돶살돉캪쇋쿖쪵뗄쪧튵죋뿚ꎬ얩듥뫍쫐뎡뗄솽횧쪧튵뛓컩볓퓚튻웰뻍듳듳퓶볓쇋돇쫐뻍튵톹솦ꆣ 듋췢ꎬ퓬돉컒맺ꆰ룟퓶뎤ꆢ뗍뻍튵ꆱ뗄쇭튻늿럖풭틲쫇ꆰ쓚짺ꆱ탔뗄ꎬ죧ꎺ뗚튻ꎬ닺튵뷡릹뗄뗷헻뫍벼쫵쮮욽뗄쳡룟믡듸살뻍튵싊뗄쿠뛔쿂붵ꆣ튻랽쏦ꎬ폐킩뒫춳닺튵틑늻퓙쫊펦쫐뎡랢햹뗄탨튪ꎬ훰붥ퟟ쿲쮥실ꎬ듓뛸돶쿖쪧튵퓶볓뗄뻖쏦ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ뷼쓪살컒맺닺튵뷡릹쿲믹뒡닺튵뫍믹뒡짨쪩랢햹ꎬ헢킩닺튵뻹쫴폚놾쏜벯탍닺튵ꎬ놾폐믺릹돉룟ꎬ뻍튵떯탔뗍ꎬ뻍튵탨쟳쿠뛔쿂붵ꎬ헢킩풭틲듸살쇋뻍튵톹솦뗄쮫쿲퓶볓ꆣ뗚뛾ꎬ뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽뗄뇤튲쫇퓬돉뻍튵싊쿂붵뗄ꆰ쓚짺ꆱ풭틲ꆣ튻냣뗘ꎬ듖럅탍뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽폐샻폚뻍튵믺믡뗄퓶볓ꎬ뛸벯풼탍뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽좴믡틽웰뻍튵믺믡뗄복짙ꆣ컒맺뷼쓪살헽뒦퓚평듖럅탍퓶뎤랽쪽쿲벯풼탍퓶뎤랽쪽뇤뗄맽돌훐ꎬ뻍튵뛓컩뗄횪쪶쮮욽뫍쯘훊쓜솦헽퓚늻뛏쳡룟ꎬ탐튵ꆢ웳튵뗄ퟩ횯맜샭쮮욽튲죕쟷짏짽ꎬ헢튲쫇퓬돉풭폐뗍쯘훊샍뚯헟ꆢ맜샭헟쪧튵ꆢ쿂룚퓶볓뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ뻝폐맘쇏뇭쏷ꎬ뷸죋20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살ꎬ컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽뗄뇤틑퓚탭뛠쇬폲훐쳥쿖돶살ꎬ웤훐ퟮ캪춻돶뗄쫇뗚뛾닺튵ꎬ뷼벸쓪룃닺튵헽뒦폚룟쯙랢햹ힴ첬ꎬ헽뺭샺ퟅꆰ놾짮뮯ꆱ뗄맽돌ꎬ틲듋ꎬ룃닺튵뗄뻍튵쟩뿶늻떫쎻폐퓶볓ꎬ랴뛸폐쯹쿂붵ꆣ 듓틔짏럖컶뗄벸뗣풭틲훐뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ컒맺뷼쓪뗄뺭볃퓶뎤폫횪쪶믽샛ꆢ죋솦놾뾪랢ꆢ뿆톧퇐뺿ꆢ샍뚯럖릤뫍튵뮯ꆢ뇟톧뇟룉뗈틲쯘뗄펰쿬쏜늻뿉럖ꎬ틲캪벼쫵뗄뷸늽ꆢ놾뗄짮뮯뫍뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽뗄뇤쪵볊짏헽쫇ꆰ쓚짺ꆱ퓶뎤뗄횱뷓뇭쿖ꆣ쯤좻쒿잰뮹좱짙헢랽쏦뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꎬ떫컒쏇뿉틔춨맽웳튵퇐랢럑폃춶쮮욽ꆢ닺튵벼쫵뷡릹뗄뮻벰뺭볃믮뚯뗄ퟩ횯뫍맜샭쓜솦뗈랽쏦쮮욽뗄쳡룟살랴펳쓚짺틲쯘뛔컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗ꆣ평폚욪럹폐쿞ꎬ퓚듋컒쏇뷶틔퇐랢럑폃춶쟩뿶캪샽살쮵쏷웤뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗ꆣ뻝맺쓚좨췾퇐뺿믺릹뗄춳볆뗷닩쫽ퟖ쿔쪾ꎬ뷼쓪살컒맺탐튵ꆢ웳튵뛔벼쫵뒴탂뗄죏쪶웕뇩쳡룟ꎬ늻뛏볓듳퇐랢춶죫ꎬ1998쓪잰500볒웳튵벯췅뗄퇐뺿뾪랢럑폃뇈훘캪%ꎬ2001쓪캪%ꎬ2004쓪볌탸쳡룟떽%ꎬ럖탐튵뾴ꎬ볆쯣믺펦폃럾컱튵벼쫵뒴탂쓜솦ퟮ잿ꎬ퇐랢럑폃뇈샽캪%ꎬ웤쯻벸 4
룶뷏룟뗄탐튵쫇ꎺ뗧ퟓ벰춨탅짨놸훆퓬튵ꎬ%ꎬ커웷떯튩훆퓬튵%ꎬ붻춨퓋쫤짨놸훆퓬튵ꎬ%ꎬ뗧웸믺킵벰웷닄훆퓬튵ꎬ%ꆣ퇐랢춶죫뗄퓶볓캪웳튵뗄돖탸ꆢ뿬쯙랢햹5듲쿂쇋볡쪵뗄믹뒡ꎬ퓶쳭쇋뫳뺢ꆣ헢샯컒쏇뿉틔듓뇭3룸돶뗄쫽뻝듳쳥뾴돶퇐랢춶폫뺭볃킧싊퓶뎤횮볤뗄맘쾵ꎺ 뇭3. 잰500볒웳튵벯췅뺭볃킧틦폫킧싊뇤뮯쟩뿶 쓪럝 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 좫튪쯘닺돶싊 ퟜ닺닺돶싊ꎨ%ꎩ 죋뻹닺돶싊ꎨ췲풪/죋ꎩ 뷰샻쮰싊ꎨ%ꎩ 8 막뚫좨틦샻죳ꎨ%ꎩ 떥캻닺돶샻쮰싊ꎨ%ꎩ 퇐랢럑폃뇈훘ꎨ%ꎩ 쇏살풴ꎺ맺볒랢룄캯닺튵뺭볃퇐뺿쯹뿎쳢ퟩꆶ2004쓪훐맺잰500볒듳탍웳튵벯췅랢햹놨룦ꆷꎬꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿닎뾼ꆷ2004,36Cꎭ3ꎬP3ꆣ 컥ꆢ벸뗣붨틩 솪뫏맺뾪랢볆뮮쫰뗄ꆶ죋샠랢햹놨룦ꆷ훐퓸쳡떽ꎺꆰ뻍튵믺믡뗄삩햹틀삵폚뺭볃퓶뎤뫍죋샠믹놾쓜솦뗄쳡룟ꆣ떫쫇죧맻늻쪵쪩쒳킩뢨훺탔뗄헾닟ꎬ뺭볃퓶뎤쫇늻믡훷뚯뮯캪뻍튵믺믡뗄삩듳뗄ꆣꆱ헢뻤뮰헽뫃뇭쏷쇋놾컄쿠튪뇭듯뗄믹놾틢쮼ꆣ춨맽틔짏뗄룷훖럖컶ꎬ컒쏇죏캪듓뎤웚살뾴ꎬ뻍튵컊쳢뗄뷢뻶폐삵폚뺭볃뗄돖탸퓶뎤ꎬ뛸뺭볃뗄퓶뎤폖틀삵폚죋샠횪쪶뫍쓜솦뗄쳡룟ꎬ헢튻쟐맩룹떽뗗폖뚼샫늻뾪뷌폽ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컒쏇죏캪믽벫랢햹샍뚯쏜벯탍탐튵ꆢ듳솦랢햹쿧헲웳튵ꎬ벰쪱랢럅훖샠늹쳹뗈듫쪩뛔폚퓚뛌웚쓚뷢뻶쪧튵컊쳢ꆢ캬뮤짧믡컈뚨좷쪵쫇럇뎣뇘튪뗄ꎬ떫듓뎤웚살뾴ꎬ듳솦랢햹럇틥컱뷌폽ꎬ쳡룟죋닅뗄횪쪶벼쓜닅쫇뷢뻶뻍튵컊쳢뗄룹놾돶슷ꆣ샭평쫇ꎺꎨ1ꎩ횻폐듳솦랢햹럇틥컱뷌폽닅쓜싺ퟣ뺭볃랢햹맽돌훐탂탋닺튵뛔룟벼쓜죋닅뗄탨쟳ꎬ쳡룟쿖듺샍뚯헟뗄샍뚯벼쓜뫍뻍튵쓜솦ꎬ캪캴살뒢놸죋솦풴ꎬ폐샻폚쳡룟헻룶맺볒샍뚯솦뗄쯘훊ꎬ캪뺭볃뗄돖탸랢햹쳡릩폐솦뗄놣헏ꎻꎨ2ꎩ랢햹럇틥컱뷌폽뿉틔퓝쪱뮺뷢쒿잰컒맺평폚맺폐웳튵쿂룚럖쇷뫍샍뚯쓪쇤죋뿚늻뛏퓶뎤듸살뗄뻍튵톹솦ꎬ뮺뫍퓝쪱뗄짧믡쎬뛜ꎻꎨ3ꎩ랢햹럇틥컱뷌폽ꎬ폐샻폚듙뷸뷌폽닺튵뗄랢햹ꎬ듓뛸퓚뷌폽뮷뷚뒴퓬돶듳솿뗄뻍튵믺믡ꎬ캪짧믡엠퇸룼뛠쯹탨죋닅ꎻꎨ4ꎩ컒맺뻟폐폆뻃뗄훘쫓뷌폽뗄뒫춳ꎬ볒춥럇뎣훘쫓뛔ퟓ얮뗄뷌폽춶ꎬ떫쒿잰컒맺룟뗈뷌폽풴릩늻펦쟳ꎬ쮵쏷컒맺룟뗈뷌폽랢햹늻ퟣꎬ캪쫊펦짧믡뺭볃탎쫆뗄뇤뮯ꎬ퓚릮만틥컱뷌폽뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ헾뢮펦듳솦랢햹럇틥컱뷌폽ꎬ삩듳듳톧훐뗈튵톧킣헐짺맦쒣ꎬ뮺뷢컒맺쟠짙쓪뛁쫩쓑뗄쿖쪵쎬뛜ꎬ쳡룟컒맺죋뿚뗄ퟜ쳥쯘훊쮮욽ꆣ 웤듎ꎬ펦볓뿬돇쫐뮯뷸돌ꎬ룄룯얩듥뷌폽훆뛈ꎬ쳡룟얩듥뷌폽훊솿뫍얩튵샍뚯솦훊솿ꆣ듙뷸얩듥뗚죽닺튵뗄랢햹ꎬ뷸뛸뒴퓬돶룼뛠뗄얩튵뻍튵믺믡ꎻ 퓙듎ꎬ랢햹죋솦놾ꎬ복짙뷡릹탔쪧튵ꆣ컒맺쒿잰튻랽쏦쪧튵퇏훘ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦폖듦퓚ퟅ듳솿룚캻뿕좱ꎬ벴쪧튵폫뿕캻춬쪱듦퓚ꎬ뇭쿖캪컞벼쫵뗄럇쫬솷샍뚯솦뻍튵쓑ꎬ뛸폐튻뚨벼쫵쮮욽믲쫬솷샍뚯솦좴풶풶릩늻펦쟳ꎬ훂쪹튻킩웳튵맘볼룚캻뿕좱ꆣ쯦ퟅ탂탋벼쫵뫍닺튵늿쏅뗄늻뛏닺짺ꎬ늻뷶짧믡뺭볃퓋탐뛔샍뚯솦뗄쯘훊튪쟳풽살풽룟ꎬ뛸쟒평폚닺튵럖릤뗄늻뛏 5
볓잿ꎬ횰튵훖샠죕틦퓶뛠ꎬ횰튵볤닮뻠풽살풽듳ꎬ틲뛸짧믡뛔샍뚯솦뗄탨쟳뷡릹튲풽살풽뢴퓓ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂ꎬ샍뚯솦뗄쫽솿탍맽쪣폫훊솿탍뛌좱뗄쎬뛜폺틦춻돶ꆣ뗄헢훖실뫳뗄죋솦ힴ뿶쫆뇘쓑틔싺ퟣ뺭볃돖탸룟퓶뎤뗄탨튪ꆣ튪뷢뻶믲뮺뷢헢튻쎬뛜ꎬ뻍펦룃쫷솢죋솦놾맛쓮ꎬ냑샍뚯솦ퟷ캪튻룶쓜뚯뗄ꆢퟮ믮풾뗄짺닺튪쯘ꎬ볓듳뛔죋솦놾엠퇸뗄춶죫ꎬ냼삨랢햹룷훖탎쪽뗄횰튵뷌폽ꎬ뻙냬룷훖횰튵샠탍엠통냠ꎬ틔뺡뿬뗘쳡룟샍뚯헟뗄헻쳥쯘훊ꎬ쪹샍뚯솦뗄릩룸뷡릹폫탨쟳뷡릹쿠쫊펦ꎬ복짙뷡릹탔쪧튵ꆣ 닎뾼컄쿗 [1]돂낲욽ꎬ샮톫살ꎬꆰ뻍튵폫뺭볃퓶뎤맘쾵뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿ꆱ [J]ꎬꆶ뺭볃뿆톧ꆷꎬ2004쓪뗚1웚ꆣ [2]첷돧첨ꎬꆶ랢햹뺭볃톧뗄탂랢햹ꆷ[M]ꎬ커몺듳톧돶냦짧ꎬ1999쓪ꆣ [3]맺볒랢룄캯닺튵뺭볃퇐뺿쯹뿎쳢ퟩꎬꆶ2004쓪훐맺잰500볒듳탍웳튵벯췅랢햹놨룦ꆷ[R]ꎬ퓘폚ꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿닎뾼ꆷ2004,36Cꎭ3ꆣ [4]랮룙ꎬꆰ맬뺭볃샭싛폫맺폐웳튵룄룯ꆱ [J]ꎬꆶ퓆쓏듳톧톧놨ꎨ짧믡뿆톧냦ꎩꆷꎬ2003쓪뗚5웚ꆣ [5]탬쿖쿩ꎬ쫦풪ꎬꆰ훐맺뺭볃퓶뎤훐뗄샍뚯뷡릹킧펦ꆱ [J]ꎬꆶ맜샭쫀뷧ꆷꎬ2001쓪뗚5웚ꆣ [6]훜쳬폂ꎬꆶ샍뚯폫뺭볃퓶뎤ꆷ[M]ꎬ짏몣죽솪쫩뗪ꎬ짏몣죋쏱돶냦짧ꎬ1994쓪ꆣ [7]뫺낰룖ꎬ돌폀뫪ꎬ샮퓏탂ꎬꆶ삩듳뻍튵폫쳴햽쪧튵ꆷ[M]ꎬ훐맺샍뚯짧믡놣헏돶냦짧ꎬ2002쓪ꆣ [8]믆퇠럒 ꎬꆶ쯄룶힢훘쫇삩듳뻍튵뗄횸떼랽헫ꆷ[N],, 2004-03-25ꆣ [9]퇮틋폂ꎬꆶ훐맺맬쪱웚뗄뻍튵컊쳢ꆷ[M]ꎬ훐맺샍뚯짧믡놣헏돶냦짧ꎬ2002쓪ꆣ [10]볖 쓐ꎬꆶ룟쪧튵폫룟퓶뎤늢듦풭틲럖컶ꆷ[N],, 2003-11-20 [11]맺볒춳볆뻖ꎬꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ[R]ꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꆣ [12]ꆶ맺볊춳볆쓪본ꆷ쿠펦룷웚[R]ꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꆣ [13]쫀뷧틸탐ꎬꆶ쫀뷧틸탐랢햹놨룦1998ꎯ1999ꆷ[R]ꎬ훐맺뺭볃돶냦짧ꎬ2000쓪ꆣ [14]쫀뷧틸탐ꎬꆶ쫀뷧틸탐랢햹놨룦1999ꎯ2000ꆷ[R]ꎬ훐맺뺭볃돶냦짧ꎬ2001쓪ꆣ [15] [펢].쏗쟐뛻뇠ꎬꆶ엁뛻룱샗럲쫀뷧샺쪷춳볆ꆷ[M]ꎬ뫘솦욽틫ꎬ뺭볃뿆톧돶냦짧ꎬ2002쓪ꆣ [16] [쏀]Hꆤ잮쓉샯ꎬSꆤ슳뇶톷ꎬMꆤ주뛻뿼틲ꎬꆶ릤튵뮯뫍뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뇈뷏퇐뺿ꆷ[M]ꎬ컢웦뗈틫ꎬ짏몣죽솪쫩뗪ꎬ짏몣쏱돶냦짧ꎬ1989ꆣ [17] [쏀] 컷쏉.뿢쓹듄ꎬꎬꆶ룷맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤ꆷ[M]ꎬ뎣톫뗈틫ꎬ짌컱펡쫩망1999쓪ꆣ [18] [쏀] 싳뗏즭ꎬꆶ쫀뷧뺭볃뛾냙쓪믘맋ꆷ[M]ꎬ샮뗂캰ꎬ룇붨쇡틫ꎬ룄룯돶냦짧1997쓪ꆣ [19]Chow, Gregory. “Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China” [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1993, 809ꎭ842. [20]Okun,A.(1969):“PotentialGNP:ItsMeasurementandSignificance”,:ThePoliticalEconomyofProsperity[J],Washington,.,BrookingsInstitute,-145. 6
An Employ Policy considering of Economic Endogenous Growth Niu Xiao-fan , Pan Xiao-chung (School of Economics, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650091) Abstract: Traditional theory considered that the relations between economy growth and employ growth were positive. However, the Endogenous Growth Theory thinks that they are not always present positive state. There is an important policy implication include in The Endogenous Growth Theoryꎺ The key for Government to resolve unemployed problems is to encouraging education and sustaining labour capital accumulation in order to insuring the continual economy growth , instead of unilaterally pursuing the increase of employ quantity. Key words: Economy growth ;Endogenous factor ;Educational investment 쫕룥죕웚ꎺ2004-07-10 1 놾컄캪훐맺짧믡뿆톧풺2003쓪B샠훘듳뿎쳢ퟓ뿎쳢횮튻ꆣ ∗ 얣쿾랫ꎬ얮ꎬ퓆쓏듳톧뺭볃톧풺뢱뷌쫚ꎬ늩쪿ꎬ훷튪듓쫂컷랽뺭볃톧ꆢ죋솦놾컊쳢퇐뺿ꎬ솪쾵랽쪽ꎺ뗧ퟓ탅쿤ꎺxfniu0871@ ꎬ쫖믺ꎺ13629626647ꎬ폊헾뇠싫ꎺ650091 엋킡뒺ꎬ쓐ꎬ퓆쓏듳톧뺭볃톧풺붲쪦ꎬ쮶쪿ꎬ훷튪듓쫂헾훎뺭볃톧ꆢ샍뚯뺭볃톧퇐뺿ꎬ솪쾵랽쪽ꎺ뗧ퟓ탅쿤ꎺxcpan321@ ꎬ쫖믺ꎺ13629681338ꎬ폊헾뇠싫ꎺ650091 2 퇮틋폂ꎬꆶ훐맺ꏗꏔꏏ놨룦2003ꆷꎬ, 3 20쫀볍80쓪듺훐뫳웚ꎬ훐맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤폫뻍튵뗄믹놾맘쾵쫇“룟퓶뎤ꎬ룟뻍튵”ꎻ쯦ퟅ쫐뎡뺭볃쳥훆뗄붨솢ꎬ뷼10쓪살훐맺뺭볃퓶뎤폫뻍튵뗄맘쾵뇤캪쇋뗤탍뗄“룟퓶뎤ꎬ뗍뻍튵”ힴ첬ꆣ헢폫떱잰쏀맺뗄퓶뎤쒣쪽믹놾쿠춬ꆣ쒿잰쏀맺뺭볃톧볒쏇떣탄뗄늢늻쫇쏀맺뺭볃쓜럱볌탸퓶뎤ꎬ뛸쫇뺭볃퓶뎤쓜럱뒴퓬ퟣ릻뗄뻍튵믺믡ꆣ늻짙뺭볃톧볒죏캪ꎬ쏀맺뺭볃헽뺭샺ퟅ튻룶햽뫳짙볻뗄퓶뎤쒣쪽ꎬ벴뺭볃뿬쯙퓶뎤폫뻍튵쫐뎡뗍쏔늢듦ꆣ 4 룃ퟩ쫽뻝좡ퟔ맺볒랢룄캯닺튵뺭볃퇐뺿쯹뿎쳢ퟩꆶ2004쓪훐맺잰500볒듳탍웳튵벯췅랢햹놨룦ꆷꎬ퓘폚ꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿닎뾼ꆷ2004,36Cꎭ3ꎬP5ꆣ 5 닎볻맺볒랢룄캯닺튵뺭볃퇐뺿쯹뿎쳢ퟩꆶ2004쓪훐맺잰500볒듳탍웳튵벯췅랢햹놨룦ꆷꎬ퓘폚ꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿닎뾼ꆷ2004,36Cꎭ3ꎬP4ꆣ 7
