YEAR2007 NO2007002 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ᇏݓთࣜ࠶ҵၳჰၹ࣮ Ⴅ഻ čౢն࿐ࣜ࠶ܵ࿐ჽ 100084Ď ᅋေğࡹݓ؟୍đᇏݓࣜ࠶ࡹഡ౼֤ਔऍն֥Ӯࣼđ္ᄯӮთҵएঘնᆃ၂҂ಸޫ൧֥໙ีbЧ໓߭ܤਔᇏݓࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥ൎđಖުٳ༅ਔࣜ࠶ؿᅚᇏთҵएঘն෮ᄯӮ֥ᇗުݔđࡥֆሹࢲਔݓଽࣜ࠶࿐ࢸؓთࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥࣮,ቋު๙ݖࡹ৫ֹളӁݦඔॉҳਔֹࣜ࠶ҵၳ֥ଽၹđѩࢹᇹᆃ၂ݦඔॉҳਔݓࡅᆟҦౠོ෮ᄯӮֹ֥ࡗ֥ሧЧੀb ܱՍğთؿᅚҵၳđֹളӁݦඔđሧЧੀ ᇏٳোݼğF127 ໓ངѓൕğA 1ēݓֹࣜ࠶ؿᅚۀඍ ࡹݓԚđݓӁြٳ҃ᇶေࠢᇏᄝခݚസٺđခݚაଽֹбᇗູ%%b۽ြোࠢᇏᄝିჷa١۽ြ,ᇗ۽ြбᇗ74ğ26bູਔڿэᆃ၂ሑঃđࡆॹଽֹ֥ࣜ࠶ؿᅚđൈॉ੮֞ݓٝνಆ֥ླေđᄝ୍ࣜ࠶߫گൈ௹đݓࡅ၂ш߫گခݚ۽ြࠎֹđ၂шࡼ҆ٳ۽ြథສଽֹb նᄁࣉaཌࡹഡൈ௹đሧࣉ၂҄ཟଽֹౠོđଽֹაခݚ෮ᅝбᇗཌྷҵ۱Ϥٳׄđሧ҃ׄٳđ۲ֹӁြࢲܒ 1
߄boඹpaopൈ௹đෛሢᇏૅaᇏರཌྷࡹࢌđᇏݓࣜ࠶ࡹഡ֥ຓ҆ߌႵਔૼཁ֥ڿđࣜ࠶ࡹഡބ۽ြ҃अ֥ᇗׄႻՖଽֹཟခݚᇯ҄ሇ၍b Ֆڿ۪ष٢֞90୍սު௹đݓൌ࠽ഈҐ౼֥൞ཟခݚބؿղֹౠོ֥ᆟҦđܝৣ҆ٳֹ༵ؿᅚఏটđൌགྷ༵ࣉջުࣉ֥ะ؇ؿᅚᅞbᆃ௹ࡗခݚֹሧбᇗཁᇷഈശb 90୍սၛটđת҆ა༆҆ࣜ࠶ҵएࣉ၂҄ঔնđoϖp௹ࡗđת҆ܥקሧӁሧᅝಆݓሧሹح֥%đᇏ༆҆ᅝ%b ֻࣴ۱୍࠹߃ބ2010୍ჹࣟଢѓ۔ေૼಒิԛđՖoࣴpषđေᇗ൪ଽֹ֥ؿᅚđൌീႵ০Ⴟߏࢳҵएঔն֥ᆟҦđѩᇯ҄ࡆն۽ቔ৯؇đࠒࠞӔሢ෪ཬֹҵए֥ٚཟ୭৯b طֹҵएݖնđԢਔ႕ཙቂࢲބݓࡅ၂ຓđߎ҂০Ⴟݓࣜ࠶֥ӻ࿃໗קؿᅚbႮႿთؿᅚҵए֤ઋުֹླ҂ቀđՖط႕ཙؿղֹളӁᆀ֥০đቋᇔၝᇅሧླđᆃဢذྟ࿖ߌ߶ݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ؇٢તb 2ēݓࣜ࠶࿐ࡅܱႿݓთࣜ࠶ླྀטؿᅚ֥ંฐ෬ ݓଽ࿐ࢸܱႿݓთࣜ࠶ؿᅚҵၳ֥࣮ޓ؟đૌնሸކॉ੮ਔଽຓਆٚ૫֥ၹটࢳთؿᅚҵၳđбೂ༱Ⴅབč1994Ďaᇛਅč1998ĎaᄝᅦؗڶđᯟӮਟč2001Ď֩b Ⴕ၂ུ࿐ᆀหљ఼טᆟᇍაᆟҦౠོՖຓ҆႕ཙሢֹؿᅚđകܻaޱλۑč1999ĎಪູğoૌႨਆ۱эਈটࢳॢࡗ҂नޙᄹ 2
1Ӊğࠧᆟکսі҂ؿղֹᆷ֝ളӁေੀ֥ၩ჻ބି৯bpĠᆃቔᆀิ֥֞ᆟҦౠོԢਔᆷݓࡅᆰࢤሧࡹӌᆭຓđߎᆷݓࡅҍᆟഈ֥ౠོbݒ౩ຫaॼཬč2001Ďđਾč1997Ďٳ༅ਔඥ൬Ⴊ߲ؓሧ֥ࠗৣቔႨb طֹሱദࣜ࠶֥ҵၳᄵ൞ֹࣜ࠶ؿᅚҵၳ֥ଽၹđകܻaޱλۑč1999Ďᆷԛoڶღസ֥ԥྐྵੱбസ֥ۚ؟đᄝࡆഈ֥ۚದनݓଽളӁሹᆴđۚԥྐྵੱڶღസ۷ࡆႵ০ႿՖଽ҆טሧࣁbp2ਸ਼ຓđֹ໊ᇂaದ१ᇉaԷྍି৯a൧ӆؿტӱ؇ބࣜ࠶ࢲܒ֩ၹ႕ཙሢֹࣜ࠶ؿᅚ؇bᅝڄč1995Ďၛದ৯ሧЧaᆩ്ሧЧaস৯ೆaᆟکᆦԛaؓຓष٢ӱ؇a൧ӆ߄ӱ؇ބሧЧթਈ۱ٚ૫ቔູࢳэਈࡹ৫ཌྟ݂߭ଆđၛGDPቔູФࢳэਈđটٳ༅۲ၹؓКࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥܊ངđ֤ԛದ৯ሧЧaᆩ്ሧЧaᇉሧЧ֥ሹ܊ངۚղ%,ఃᇏሧЧթਈ֥܊ངੱູĊđطসೆ֥܊ངੱቋཬᆺႵ%bྸћaઅתč2003ĎඍਔࡆēНक़غ֥ଽളসٳ۽ଆᄝࢳთࣜ࠶ҵၳٚ૫֥ၩၬbޠႧč2003ĎᄎႨྍᄹӉંቓਔ၂۱ൌᆣ࣮đॉҳਔ॓Էྍି৯ؓთࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥႕ཙđૌၛR&D֥ೆᅝGDP֥бᇗቔູ॓Էྍି৯֥ᆷѓđ֤ԛ॓Էྍି৯൞ࢳთࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥ᇗေၹbཫӤaࢮč2002Ďษંਔთᆩ്Էྍି৯ؓთؿᅚ֥ቔႨb႕ཙֹࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥ଽၹᇏđݺ؟ದॉ੮ਔӁြࢲܒ֥ቔႨbޱมč2001Ďaဗࡹč1993Ď֩b 1ҕॉ໓ང14đp10 2ҕॉ໓ང14đp12 3
ߎႵ၂ུ࿐ᆀษંਔӬ൧߄ؓთࣜ࠶֥՜ࣉቔႨđဗषᇑč2001Ďิԛਔo༆҆ॢࡗ۬अ҂ࣜ࠶ࡌඪ”,ቔᆀಪູ໊ࣜ࠶ഠ߶ܿଆᄀཬđమᄝ֥ࢌၞؓඔඔਈᄀഒđࢌၞٳข֥ӮЧᄀ֮đࢌၞིੱᄀնbफč2001Ďิԛਔֆшࢌၞބ؟шࢌၞ֥ۀটࢳऊࠢࣜ࠶ིၭ֩֩bᆃ၂ંႋھඪ֤֞ਔᆟࢸބ࿐ࢸ֥၂ᇁಪđଢభݓࡅ֥ࣉӬ൧߄ࡹഡ֥ᅞࣼᆰࢤุགྷਔᆃ၂ંᇶᅦb ၛഈ൞ݓଽ࿐ᆀܱႿᇏݓࣜ࠶ҵၳჰၹ֥ٳ༅đЧ໓֥ٳ༅္Ֆਆ۱࢘؇ೆ൭đ၂൞ଽၹĠؽ൞ຓၹb 3ēଽၹٳ༅ ଽၹֹࠧሱദ֥Ӂြᅞ֥ಒקaሧЧթਈaࣜ࠶ߌaࣜ࠶ࢲܒaದჴᇉ֩ٚ૫֥ҵၳbֹӁြᅞ֥ಒקླေ۴ऌ۲ֹ֥ൌ࠽౦ঃᇯ၂ٳ༅đ҂ࣇླေՖሱദ֥ࣜ࠶หᆘԛؿđߎླေऎุӁြ֥ໃটؿᅚ൙Ҍିбࢠ॓࿐֥ಒק༯টđᆃЧദࣼ൞۱گᄖ֥۽ӱđᄝᆃ໓ᅣࣼ҂ॉҳᆃٚ૫֥ଽಸਔbࣇՖሧЧթਈaࣜ࠶ߌaࣜ࠶ࢲܒaದჴᇉ֩ٚ૫֥টॉҳთࣜ࠶ҵၳ֥ჰၹb൮༵ࡼᆃུၹବೆֹളӁݦඔb 3ē1ֹളӁݦඔ ᄝࡹ৫ളӁݦඔᆭభđЧ໓ิԛ༯૫֥ࡌഡğč1ĎളӁੱ༢ඔčࠧ༯໓ࡼေิ֥֞AĎႮসᆀ࢝ტ༢ඔaӁြܿଆིႋa෮Ⴕᇅࢲܒa٤୪Ӂြࢲܒa൧ӆष٢ӱ؇aԷྍି৯a൧߄ඣᆃࠫ۱ᆷѓ֥ܒӮbᆃ۱ࡌഡ֥ԛॖႮభ૫֥໓ངሸඍ֤֞đᄝྸ؟࿐ᆀ֥ษંᇏടࠣ֞ਔᆃဢ֥ܴׄđᆺ൞ૌޓഒႵದࡼᆃུᆷѓ٢ᄝ၂۱ଆ 4
ᇏϠਔb֥ቋԚ֥іղൔॖ༯૫č2Ē6ĎđᇀႿູહࡼA֥іղൔഡ࠹Ӯᆃဢ֥ྙൔđᆺ൞൫ฐྟ֥đቋᇔ֥ඔऌ݂߭ࡼေဒᆣᆃᇕݦඔྙൔ֥ᆞಒྟđೂݔ๙ݖਔ݂߭ဒᆣࣼᆣૼ൞ᆞಒ֥đڎᄵߎေטᆜݦඔྙൔĠč2Ď۲ֹളӁݦඔྙൔཌྷđࠧCobb-Douglasݦඔ֥ሧЧ༢ඔཌྷb൙ൌഈđЧ໓֥۲ֹളӁݦඔ൞ಆݓളӁݦඔ֥ᄝֹҪ૫֥ႋႨđ෮ၛࡌഡૌऎႵཌྷ֥ሧЧ༢ඔb 3ē1ē1ଆࡥඍ Ч໓֥ٳ༅൞ࡹ৫ᄝྍܞׅᄹӉଆ֥ࠎԤഈbࡌഡ۲ֹ֥ളӁݦඔႵॏ҃Ē֡۬ঘථྙൔđ a1−aF=AKL,jijijiji č3Ē1Ď 1993,1994,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001;i=1........30 ఃᇏF ൞j୍ֻiֹ֥ӁԛđႨGDPট؇ਈĠA ൞jjiji୍ֻiֹ֥ളӁݦඔ༢ඔđࠧളӁੱ༢ඔđK൞j୍ֻiֹ֥ሧjiЧթਈđL൞j୍ֻiֹ֥সᆀሹඔđi=1............30սіਔݓji֥۱സaሱᇍaᆰ༪൧đૌ၇Ց൞Кࣘa฿ࣃaފКa༆aଽܞaୡaࠝਟaޑࡾaഈݚaࡾ්aᆄࡾaνߪaڞࡹaࡾ༆aתaފଲaКaଲaܼתaܼ༆aݚଲaඹԫaᇜaᄉଲa༆ҟa༆aۅaౝݚaୡ༱aྍࡿđaູӈඔb Ϝč3Ē1ĎൔਆшԢၛL,֤֞ af=Ak,j=1993,1994,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001;i=1........30, č3Ē2Ďjijiji 5
fᆃAai=1............30aa֥ݣၬ҂эđູj୍ֻiֹ֥ದjijiनӁਈak൞j୍ֻiֹ֥ದनሧЧթਈbᆃဢj୍ֻiֹ֥ದjiनӁਈ֥႕ཙၹႵਆ۱đ၂൞ದनሧЧթਈđؽ൞ֻiֹ֥ളӁੱ༢ඔAbᄝᆃં໓Ⴈসᆀ࢝ტ༢ඔaӁြܿଆིႋa෮Ⴕiᇅࢲܒa٤୪Ӂြࢲܒa൧ӆष٢ӱ؇aԷྍି৯a൧߄ඣটࢳ۲ֹളӁੱ༢ඔA֥҂đ༯૫བྷ༥ซ၂༯ᆃ۱໙ี i3ē2ඔऌෆࠢ Ч໓ҐႨ૫ϰඔऌđ܋ෆࠢਔ1993a1994a1996a1997a1998a1999a2000a2001ᆃϖ୍۲۱സaሱᇍaᆰ༪൧֥ඔऌđᆭ෮ၛҐႨᆃϖ୍֥ඔऌđᇶေ၇ऌඔऌ֥ॖ֤ྟটࣉྛ౼ച֥đ1997୍ၛުᇗ౩ՖඹԫസٳԛটđӮູᆰ༪൧đᄝඔऌԩൈಯࡼਆസ֥ඔऌο၂קٚൔࡆሹđູ݂ඹԫസ֥ඔऌb 3ē2ē1সᆀ࢝ტ༢ඔ֥ҩෘ ۲ֹসᆀ࢝ტ༢ඔ֥ҩෘҐႨ۲ֹ۲୍ٺসᆀ൳࢝ტӱ؇֥ࡆಃđః࠹ෘ܄ൔ൞ E=e+5*e+8*e+11*e+14*e,ji1ji2ji3ji4ji5ji č3Ē3Ď 1993,1994,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001;=1.......30ᆃjսіਔ୍ٺđi=1............30սіਔ30۱സaሱᇍaᆰe༪൧đط սіਔiֹj୍֥҂്ሳࠇ്ሳޓഒದ१ᅝՖြದჴ1jie֥бᇗđսіਔji୍ֹ֥ཬ࿐໓߄ದ१ᅝՖြದჴ֥бᇗđ2jieeսіਔiֹj୍֥Ԛᇏ໓߄ದ१ᅝՖြದჴ֥бᇗđսіਔ3ji4jieiֹj୍֥ۚᇏದ१ᅝՖြದჴ֥бᇗđսіਔiֹj୍֥ն5ji 6
ህၛഈದ१ᅝՖြದჴ֥бᇗđࡌק҂്ሳࠇ്ሳޓഒ֥সᆀनࢤ൳࢝ტ֥ൈࡗູ၂୍đᆃဢč4Ē3Ďൔ֥ݣၬࣼ൞đ iֹj୍֥࢝ტ༢ඔE֩Ⴟiֹj୍Ֆြದჴᇏ۲ᇕ໓߄ӱ؇ದ१෮ᅝбjiᇗӰၛཌྷႋ֥൳࢝ტ୍ඔb ඔऌটჷູuᇏݓದ१࠹୍v1994a1995,uᇏݓস࠹୍v1997a1998a1999a2000a2002୍ϱbᆃ૫ႮႿ࠹ඔऌ҂ಆđЧ໓ቔਔ၂ུᅼෘb 3ē2ē2Ӂြܿଆིႋ༢ඔ ޅ၂۱സࠇֹđೂݔᄝଖ۱ྛြऎႵܿଆႪ൝đପહࣼॖၛࠆ֤ܿଆིႋđࢆ֮ӮЧaิۚࣜ࠶ིၭĠਸ਼ຓೂݔ֥Ӂਈᄝಆݓᅝ֥бᇗޓնđପહࣼӮູ؎ӌഅđॖၛࠆ֤໗ק֥০bᇏݓ۽ြٳ҆܋Ⴕ؟۱ྛြđ໓ᅣοਆ۱ᆷѓೱ࿊ྛြđč1Ď1988୍ಆྛြളӁሹᆴ400ၡၛഈĠč2Ďࡆ۽ᇅᄯြbҐႨֻ၂۱ѓሙ൞ၹູᆃུྛြ֥႕ཙбࢠնđҐႨֻؽ۱ѓሙ൞ၹູЧ໓ಪູᇅᄯြֹؓࣜ࠶֥ջб୪ြაԚࠩҐडြնđط൙ൌഈ୍֥֒Ґडြ֥ಆྛြളӁሹᆴ֮Ⴟ400ၡbοᆃਆ۱ѓሙ࿊౼ਔൊࡆ۽a١ᆮြa৯აᆕచaെႲࡆ۽a߄࿐۽ြaࡹҋࠣ٤ࣁඋঀᇅaޑࣁඋࡆ۽aࣁඋࡆ۽aࠏྀaࢌ๙ഡСaగഡСa๙ྐഡСቔູॉҳ֥ؓའbಖު็࿊1993a1994a1996a1997a1998a1999a2000a2001୍؇ᇏđ۲ྛြളӁሹᆴቋ֥ۚ۱സٺđՖ֮ۚ֞၇Ցڮᆴ5a4a3a2a1đఃჅസٺູ0ᆴbಖުၛ۲ྛြӁᆴᅝᆃؽ۱ྛြ֥бᇗູಃᇗđ֤ሹ֥Ӂြܿଆིႋ༢ඔb 7
QpjS=s*,p=1........12;jipji12Q∑pjp=11993,1994,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001;i=1...30č3Ē4Ď sč3Ē4ĎൔᇏS൞iֹj୍֥Ӂြܿଆ༢ඔđսіiֹpjijiQj୍ֻ֥pྛြ֥ڮᆴđႮഈ૫ᆩ֡ğڮᆴٓຶ൞0Ē5đູj୍pjݓpྛြ֥ሹӁᆴđp=1........12၇Ցսіൊࡆ۽a١ᆮြa৯აᆕచaെႲࡆ۽a߄࿐۽ြaࡹҋࠣ٤ࣁඋঀᇅaޑࣁඋࡆ۽aࣁඋࡆ۽aࠏྀaࢌ๙ഡСaగഡСa๙ྐഡСྛြb ඔऌটჷuູᇏݓ۽ြ࠹୍v1994a1995a1998a1999a2000a2001a2002ϱđط1996୍֥ඔऌ൞Ֆ۲۱സaሱᇍaᆰ༪൧1997୍ϱֹ֥ٚ࠹୍ᇏԎԛট֥b 3ē2ē3෮Ⴕᇅࢲܒa٤୪Ӂြࢲܒa൧߄ඣᆷѓ 3ē2ē3ē1෮Ⴕᇅࢲܒᆷѓğ ႨOSіൕđҐႨ٤܄Ⴕᇅࣼြದඔა܄Ⴕᇅࣼြದඔ֥бᆴđjiఃᇏ٤܄ႵᇅࣼြದඔЇওᄝܢٺᇅఒြaຓఒaۖϏሧఒြaఒࠣ۱ุ֥ࣼြದඔđط܄ႵᇅᄵЇওݓႵބุࠢ෮ႵbҐ౼ࣼြದඔ֥бᆴط҂൞Ӂᆴ֥бᆴ֥ჰၹđ൞ࡹଆ֥ଢ֥ࣼ൞ေࢳֹӁԛ֥ҵၳđೂݔႨ෮ႵᇅӁԛ֥бᆴቔູࢳэਈđࣼႵׄઆࠠഈ֥ᇗگb 3ē2ē3ē2Ӂြࢲܒᆷѓ Ⴈሹࣼြದ१ࡨಀֻ၂Ӂြࣼြದ१đಖުႨ෮֤Ԣၛֻ၂Ӂြࣼြದ१đႨPRіൕbҐႨᆃဢ֥؇ਈٚم֥ჰၹഈb ji 8
3ē2ē3ē3൧߄ඣᆷѓ ҐႨӬᆓࣼြದ१ሹඔაሹࣼြದ१֥бᆴđႨPCіൕb jijipژݼඪૼğսіሹࣼြದ१apc սіӬᆓࣼြದ१aPCĢjijipc/pսіӬᆓ߄༢ඔĠ prֻ၂Ӂြࣼြದ१б২aPRĢjijijiji(1−pr)/pr սі٤ֻ၂Ӂြࣼြದඔაֻ၂Ӂြ֥б২Ġp1սіૄjijijiຣದᇏܢٺᇅఒြࣼြದඔap2սіૄຣದᇏຓሧఒြࣼြದjiඔap3սіૄຣದᇏۖϏఒြࣼြದඔap4սіૄຣದᇏjijiఒࣼြඔp5սіૄຣದᇏ۱ุࣼြದඔđᄵ jiOS=(100000-p1-p2-p3-p4-p5)/(p1+p2+p3+p4+p5)jijijijijijijijijijijij=1993,1994,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001;i=1..........30 č3Ē5Ď OSսі෮Ⴕᇅࢲܒ༢ඔđഈ૫෮Ⴕژݼ༯ѓjiսіiֹj୍đji໓ᅣ༯૫֥ژݼ֥༯ѓݣၬაՎཌྷđ҂ᄜሕඍb 3ē2ē4ದनሧЧթਈa൧ӆᅝႵੱაԷྍି৯ Ч໓ࡌഡၛಆ҆ሧӁթਈູሧЧೆđࠧሧЧႨੱ100%bطܱႿሧЧթਈ֥ࢸקđ໓ᅣҐႨࣘ໓aᇒ࿐ၬč1999Ď֥ٚمğo࿊ᄴܥקሧӁ࣪ᆴࡆੀሧࣁ֥ԩٚمbpᆃ֥ੀሧࣁࣼ൞९թđܱႿሧЧթਈ֥࠹ෘၛ1992୍ູࠎ௹đಖުࡆഈ1993୍֥ሧЧྙӮሹحđࡨಀᅼࣸđѩοᅶ۲ֹ֥ܥקሧӁࡎᆷඔؓܥקሧӁሧބᅼࣸࣉྛᅼෘჰᆴaοᅶ۽ြԛӆࡎ۬ᆷඔؓ९թྙӮࣉྛᅼෘჰᆴđ֤֞1993୍֥ሧЧթਈbၛު۲୍م࠹ෘđѩᄝࡆ1996୍֥ඔऌభđေ࠹ෘԛ1995୍֥ඔऌbܱႿ1992୍֥ሧЧթਈႄႨࣘ໓aᇒ࿐ၬč1999Ď250်֥࿃і8Ē2֥ඔऌb 9
ఃჅඔऌটჷuᇏݓࣜ࠶࠹୍v1994Ē2002୍ϱbਸ਼ຓၛᆦԛم࠹ෘ֥ݓଽളӁሹᆴ္ࣜݖᅼෘູჰᆴđࡎᆷඔູ۲ֹཌྷႋ୍ٺ֥ਬ൲അࡎ۬ሹᆷඔđඔऌটჷഈb֤֞ݓଽളӁሹᆴބሧЧթਈ֥ჰᆴުԢၛ۲ֹཌྷႋ୍ٺ֥সᆀದඔđ֤ࣼ֞ದनGDPაದनሧЧթਈb ൧ӆषؿӱ؇ၛMіൕbඔऌটჷuᇏݓ൧ӆ࠹୍v1994jiĒ2002୍ϱ֥oؿਬ൲સၞaҔႂြᅝݓଽളӁሹᆴбᇗpটіൕbԷྍି৯ႨR&DሹᆦԛႨᅝGDP֥б২ট૭ඍđႨRDіൕđjiҐႨuᇏݓࣜ࠶࠹୍voಆݓཅࠩၛഈᆟک҆උ࣮აषؿࠏܒࠣ॓ྐ༏ა໓ངࠏܒ॓ࣜٮԔࠢაᆦԛሹحpٳোі֥ඔऌđఃᇏ2002୍୍ٳোіӫэູo۲ֹ࣮ა൫ဒčR&DĎࣜٮଽ҆ᆦԛ౦ঃpđ ࠹१ࣥэ߄đ෮ၛ2001୍֥ඔऌҐႨҬᆴم֤֞b 3ē3ଆഡ࠹აඔऌٳ༅ 3ē3ē1ቋԚ֥ଆഡ࠹ षଆഡ࠹ൈܱႿ༢ඔAބದनሧЧթਈ֥ܱ༢ປಆՖଆč3Ē2Ď֥эྙطটđѩ๙ݖਆш౼ؓඔࡼ໙ีཌྟ߄b Ab⎡expalogEaSaMaPCaOS+aRD+aPR⎤=++++,ji1ji2ji3ji4ji5ji6ji7ji⎣⎦1993,1994,19961997,1998,1999,2000,2001;=1.....30č3Ē6Ď Ϝč3Ē5Ďջೆ܄ൔč3Ē2Ďđਆш౼ؓඔ֤֞ 10
logf=logb+alogE+aS+aM+aPC+aOS+aRD+aPRji1ji2ji3ji4ji5ji6ji7ji č3Ē7Ď +alogk+ε,j=1993,1994,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001;i=1....308jiఃᇏεڛՖᆞٳ҃đfದनGDPđֆູ໊ჭđlogf൞ఃؓඔ,b ajijia,.....a൞ӈඔđb္ॖၛಪູ൞ૌ၌֥ࢳၹ,E൞࢝ტ༢ඔđ18jiS൞Ӂြܿଆིႋ༢ඔđM൧ӆषؿ༢ඔđPC൧߄ඣđOS෮jijijijiႵᇅࢲܒ༢ඔđRD൞R&Dᆦԛб২đPRӁြࢲܒ༢ඔđ kսіjijijiದनሧЧթਈđֆ໊൞ჭbοᅶഈඍᆷѓ֥ඔऌ߸ሹॖၛཟቔᆀ෬ေđࠇᆀҰ࿘ౢն࿐ණൖં໓ඔऌ९b ᄎႨSPSSҐႨstepwiseٚൔࣉྛཌྟ݂߭đඔऌٳ༅ࢲݔೂ༯ğR Square֥ᆴູđડቀཁᇷྟඣေđՖCollinearity Statistics֥࠹ᆷѓᇏु֞đಸಧ؇ބٚҵளᅮၹሰࢲݔཁൕ҂թᄝ܋ཌྟđطቋު၂۱і۬One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Testဒᇏ֥SR൞,ॖၛुԛѓሙҗҵაѓሙ߄ᆞٳ҃ཁᇷҵၳ;ՖCorrelationsٳ༅ᇏđPV(Predicted Value)ބSRčĎ֩ࠩཌྷܱ༢ඔູđཁᇷྟඣູđॖၛಪູၳٚҵྟĠߎႵਆ۱໙ีč1ĎэਈRD֥༢ඔູڵđࣼ൞ඪR&Dᆦԛб২აದनӁਈڵཌྷܱđᆃ၂ׄაૌ֥ᆰत҂ژĠč2ĎDurbin-Watsonᆴ֩Ⴟđթᄝਙཌྷܱbԛགྷᆃᇕࢲݔॖି֥ჰၹႵթᄝ၌֥ࢳэਈaФࢳэਈაࢳэਈ֥ᇌުཌྷཌྷܱaࠇᆀࢳэਈაФࢳэਈᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢ഡקհ༂b ܱႿֻ၂۱໙ีაૌ֥ඔऌҐࠢႵܱ༢đ໓ᅣҐႨoಆݓཅࠩၛഈᆟک҆උ࣮აषؿࠏܒࠣ॓ྐ༏ა໓ངࠏܒ॓ࣜٮᆦ 11
ԛሹحpđᆃ૫ᆺЇওᆟک֥҆ࣜٮᆦԛđીႵЇওఒြ֥ࣜٮᆦԛbਸ਼ຓᇏݓܱႿR&Dᆦԛ֥࠹ඔऌЧദॖି္Ⴕ໙ี đु၂༯uಆݓ۲സaሱᇍaᆰ༪൧ൎ࠹ሧਘ߸щč1949Ē1989Ďvֻ15်đ18်֥ඔऌࣼ߶ؿགྷđᇏݓ֥R&DᆦԛᅝݓࡅҍᆟᆦԛՖ1953Ē1998୍नູ%ቐႷđطҍᆟყෘ൬ೆᅝGDPбᇗՖ1953Ē1998୍नູ%,෮ၛݓ֥R&DᆦԛᅝGDP္ࣼ1%ቐႷbೂݔ࣮ߐ۱࢘؇đႨ۲സ֥ಆݓཅࠩၛഈᆟک҆උ࣮აषؿࠏܒࠣ॓ྐ༏ა໓ངࠏܒ॓ࣜٮᆦԛሹحđԢၛ۲സ֥সದඔđॉ੮ದनR&Dᆦԛ֥ᆴđࣼ߶ؿགྷᇜസ1993୍ದनR&Dᆦԛჭbđ1993୍۲സन֥ದनR&Dᆦԛູ ჭđ1994୍ູ105.đ1996୍ᇀ2001୍၇Ցູ ჭჭ ჭ ჭჭࠣ ჭbᆃ૫К֥ࣘದनR&DᆦԛཌྷؓหљۚđೂݔஆԢК֥ࣘඔऌđᄵഈඍඔऌэູ55ჭa61ჭჭჭa ჭa ჭa ჭࠣ ჭbሹᆭᇏݓ֥R&Dᆦԛັެఃັb෮ၛЧ໓ॉ੮Ⴈਸ਼ຓ၂۱ᆷѓট૭ඍԷྍି৯ĒݓႵఒ൙ြֆ໊ህြඌದჴඔᅝሹসದ१֥бᇗđෙಖᆃ۱ᆷѓ္թᄝ໙ีđбೂಌഒุࠢ෮Ⴕఒြބః෮Ⴕᇅఒြ֥ህြඌದჴඔđॉ੮֞ݓႵఒ൙ြֆ໊ࣼြದ१ᅝֹሹࣼြದ१֥ն҆ٳđᄜࡆഈඔऌ෮ཋđ෮ၛᆺݺೂՎbࡼඔऌջೆđ֤֞Durbin-Watsonູ. ܱႿֻؽ۱໙ี,༵ॉ੮ਔࢳэਈაᇌުФࢳэਈᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢đЧ໓࿊ᄴਔ୍ԚದनሧЧթਈটսูದनሧЧթਈđؿགྷॖၛ 12
ཁᇷิۚD-WᆴđໃିཨԢਙཌྷܱđಖުॉ੮ᄹࡆਆ۱эਈğದनҍᆟᆦԛބؓຓસၞᅝֹGDP֥б২đ္ીିཨԢਙཌྷܱđቋު๙ݖטᆜФࢳэਈބࢳэਈ֥ྩڿਔଆ 3ē3ē2ଆ֥ྩڿ ଆ֥ྩڿѩ҂൞ෛၩ࿊ᄴ֥đᄝࣉྛਔնਈ֥൫ဒᆭުđЧ໓ಒ৫ਔೂ༯֥ଆྙൔğ =logb+aE+aS+aM+aPC+aOS+aTW+aPR+ak0+ε,ji1ji2ji3ji4ji5ji9ji7ji8ji (3Ē8) 1993,1994,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,=1.........30ఃᇏεڛՖᆞٳ҃đfದनGDPđֆູ໊ຣჭđ baa,........aji19൞ӈඔđb္ॖၛಪູ൞ૌ၌֥ࢳၹ,E൞࢝ტ༢ඔđS൞jijiӁြܿଆིႋ༢ඔđM൧ӆषؿ༢ඔđջೆൈཌྷႋඔऌӰၛ100đPCjiji൧߄ඣđOS෮Ⴕᇅࢲܒ༢ඔđTW൞ݓႵఒ൙ြֆ໊ህြඌjijiದჴඔᅝሹসದ१֥бᇗđPRӁြࢲܒ༢ඔđ k0սі୍ԚದनjijiሧЧթਈđ္ࣼ൞ഈ၂୍୍ଌ֥ದनሧЧթਈđֆ໊൞ຣჭbඔऌটჷഈіđᆺေؓഈ૫іᇏ֥logfalogkalogEቔཌྷႋэߐbٳ༅jijijiࢲݔ҂ࣇஆԢਔਙཌྷܱđطӈඔཛ֥ཁᇷྟဒෙಖ҂ିڎקჰࡌഡđૌࣉྛਔӈඔཛ֥݂߭ުؿགྷD-Wᆴᄹնđ෮ၛቋުЧ໓ࣉྛਔ҂Їݣӈඔཛ֥݂߭ٳ༅b ࢲݔೂ༯ğR Square֥ᆴູđડቀཁᇷྟඣေđDurbin-WatsonᆴູॖၛಪູཨԢਔਙཌྷܱĠՖCollinearity Statistics֥࠹ᆷѓᇏु֞đ่ࡱᆷඔቋۚ,ཬႿ10đಸಧ؇ބ 13
ٚҵளᅮၹሰࢲݔཁൕ҂թᄝ܋ཌྟĠطі۬One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Testဒᇏ֥SR൞,ཁᇷྟඣູնႿđॖၛुԛѓሙҗҵაѓሙ߄ᆞٳ҃ཁᇷҵၳ;ՖCorrelationsٳ༅ᇏđPV(Predicted Value)ބSRčĎ֩ࠩཌྷܱ༢ඔູđཁᇷྟඣູჹնႿ,ॖၛಪSRაPV҂ཌྷܱđࠧSRၳٚҵྟĠቋުଆč3Ē7Ďॖၛཿູ =+++++,jijijijijijiji1993,1994,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001;=1....30č3Ē9Ď 3ē4ଆٳ༅ ં൞ଆč3Ē8Ďߎ൞ଆč3Ē9ĎႵ၂۱ཁᇷິМ၂ϮC-Dଆ֥หׄđପࣼ൞ದनሧЧթਈބದनӁਈ൞ૢՑ֥đܱႿᆃ၂ׄЧ໓Ֆਆ۱ٚ૫টંᆣb၂൞ᄝଆഡקൈđ໓ᅣ൮༵Ֆࣜ࠶࿐֥࢘؇ؓࢳၹࣉྛਔᆈљđ෮Ⴕ֥ࢳၹაФࢳၹႵሢૡ్֥৳༢đᆃဢࣼஆԢਔྴࡌ݂֥߭໙ีđಖު໓ᅣؓඔऌࣉྛਔ࠹ԩđቋު֤ԛট֥ࢲݔ൞ᄎႨ࠹࿐֥൭؍ฐ෬ԛট֥ඔऌᆭࡗଽᄝ֥৳༢đطѩ٤ቔᆀ۱ದᇶܴ؎֥ࢲݔĠؽ൞đߐ۱࢘؇টॉ੮ᆃ۱໙ีđᄝࣉྛݓଽሹӁᆴނෘࣜӈႨࡆჰđᆃ۱s=K/Yჰթᄝ֥భิ൞đᄝ၂۱ཌྷؓбࢠ؋֥ൈ؍đᆃ၂༢ඔ൞໗ק֥b აՎཌྷܱ৳֥ߎႵӰඔჰđᆃུჰіղਔሧЧթਈބݓളӁሹᆴ֥ཌྟܱ༢bܴҳ၂༯ᇏݓ֥࠹୍đॖၛؿतᄝ၂۱ൈ؍đбೂඪ୍đ۲۱ֹ֥ࠒб২iiࠧሧЧྙӮੱ൞бࢠ໗ק֥đᄜᇿၩ֞ൌ࠽ᇏ۲۱ఒြ၂Ϯοཌྟᅼࣸđ෮ၛᆃࣼ 14
Ќᆣਔᄜॉ੮ᅼࣸၹ֥౦ঃ༯đሧЧթਈބݓളӁሹᆴ֥ཌྟܱ༢၇ಖӮ৫b 3ē4ē1ܱႿሧЧྙӮੱ֥ဒ Ч໓ࡼᇏݓ1978୍Ē2003୍֥ሧЧྙӮੱֆଦԛটđቔਔ၂۱٤ҕඔဒđඔऌটჷuᇏݓࣜ࠶࠹୍ 2003vֻ65်đࢲݔೂ༯ğ і one-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test SRN 26 Normal Parameters(a,b) Mean . Deviation Most Extreme Differences .113 -Smirnov Z .575 Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) .896 a Test distribution is Normal. b Calculated from data. ࢲݔཁൕđሧЧྙӮੱ௹ຬᆴູ,აᆞٳ҃ཁᇷҵљđ෮ၛॖၛಪູࣼᇏݓಆݓطሧЧྙӮੱ൞໗ק֥б২bෙಖЧ໓ીႵؓ۲۱ֹࣉྛဒđॖၛཌྷྐᆃ၂ܿੰᄝಆݓ۲۱ֹႋھ൞ડቀ֥b 15
3ē4ē2ܱႿଆݣၬ֥ࢳ Ֆѓሙ߄༢ඔ֥ᆴđᆩ֡ğč1Ďᄝᇏݓ1993୍Ē2001୍֥ࣜ࠶ؿᅚݖӱᇏđEބPCؓളӁੱ֥ิۚѩཁᇷ႕ཙđطSaMa PRa OS aTWᄵؓളӁੱႵ႕ཙđط҂ࣇࣇ൞ඌԷྍđᆃა๙ӈದૌ֥ܴׄ҂Ġč2ĎSaMa PRa OS aTWa k0ٳљࢳਔ֥% % a7%% %ބ65%.ᆃ૫ၛTWіൕ֥Էྍି৯൞ളӁੱ༢ඔA֥ᇶေथקၹđᅝఃᇏ%b 3ē4ē3ܱႿ"֥ٳ༅ ࡼඔऌջೆଆč3Ē9Ďđ֤֞, A=++++ č3Ē10Ď ᄝࡼ۲۱ֹ҂୍ٺ֥ཌྷܱᆷѓ֥ඔऌջೆٚӱč3Ē10Ďđࣼି֤֞۲۱ֹ҂୍ٺ֥ളӁੱ༢ඔđࡼࢲݔ߸ሹіğ 3ē4ē4ଆ֥эྙ ٚӱč Ē ĎэྙđᄜቐႷਆшӰၛসದඔ-֤֞ ' <"- ,> č Ē Ď ᆃ൞၂۱CESଆđՎଆ֥༢ඔݣၬა၂Ϯ֥CESଆ҂bૌՖ၂۱C-Dଆቓఏđࢲݔ֤ԛ၂۱CESݦඔྙൔđᆃ္іૼᆩ്ᆭࡗ֥ཌྷ๙ཌྷಸđਸ਼ຓ္πൕਔ࣮ٚم֥॓࿐ྟb 16
і Aᆴ߸ሹ A2001 ֹ A1993 A1994 A1996 A1997A1998A1999A2000A2001 -A1993 Кࣘ .7719 .7908 .6011 . .5708 .5770 ฿ࣃ .5258 .5222 .4964 . .4982 .4956 ފК .2940 .3320 .4100 . .5184 .3965 .1024 ༆ .2799 .2904 .2706 . .2891 .2995 .0197 ଽ.2580 .2645 .2556 . .3263 .3322 .0742 ܞ ୡ .5273 .5243 .4775 . .5330 .5469 .0195 ࠝਟ .3175 .3433 .3503 . .3814 .4192 .1017 ޑ.3769 .3842 .3712 . .3931 .3938 .0169 ࡾ ഈݚ .8331 .8338 .7408 . .6778 .7144 ࡾ් .5311 .5705 .5770 . .6429 .6840 .1529 ᆄࡾ .3529 .4086 .4125 . .5253 .5421 .1893 νߪ .2163 .2179 .2339 . .3179 .3250 .1088 ڞࡹ .2801 .2897 .2960 . .3161 .3212 .0411 17
ࡾ༆ .2145 .2234 .2443 . .2803 .2790 .0645 ת .4125 .4706 .5323 . .5310 .5322 .1198 ފଲ .1958 .2187 .2668 . .3014 .2889 .0931 К .3142 .3506 .3961 . .3831 .3724 .0582 ଲ .2452 .2811 .3080 . .2837 .2823 .0371 ܼת .4634 .5008 .5478 . .6491 .6673 .2039 ࿃і Aᆴ߸ሹ ܼ༆ .2473 .2497 .2507 . .2976 .2984 .0512 ݚଲ .2538 .2792 .2751 . .2760 .2740 .0202 ඹԫ .2835 .2906 .3456 . .3277 .3396 .0561 ᇜ .1796 .1812 .1718 . .1944 .2010 .0214 ᄉଲ .2376 .2373 .2251 . .2483 .2496 .0120 ༆ҟ .1984 .2131 .2103 . .2249 .2273 .0289 ༆ .2153 .2281 .2130 . .2828 .2866 .0714 ۅ .2582 .2685 .2462 . .2612 .2672 .0090 ౝݚ .2784 .2728 .2416 . .2411 .2431 ୡ༱ .2789 .2769 .2591 . .2579 .2615 ྍࡿ .3528 .3606 .3150 . .3316 .3423 Ֆቋު၂ਙ" "֥э߄ᇏॖၛु֞đն҆ٳസ൧֥ളӁੱ༢ ඔႵ෮ิۚđԢਔၛ༯ࠫ۱സٺğКࣘa฿ࣃaഈݚaౝݚaୡ༱ބྍࡿđοᅶA֥קၬđරެAෛሢࣜ࠶֥ᄹӉ҂ႋھࢆ֮đॉ੮֞ğč1ĎఃᇏႵ۱ඔऌTW 18
֥э߄бࢠหљđTWսіݓႵఒြᇏඌದჴ෮ᅝ֥бᇗđෛሢ൧ӆ֥ष٢ᄀটᄀ؟֥ದҌ჻ၩᄝ൧ӆᇏੀđཌྷ֒б২֥ದ࿊ᄴਔࣼြႿႏఒြࠇᆀຓఒđᆃဢࣼᄯӮਔݓႵఒြଽ҆ದҌ֥ੀാđᄯӮਔTWᆴ֥༯ࢆĠᆃဢၛTWսіඌԷྍି৯ॖି҂൞၂۱ປૅ֥ᆷѓđॉ੮֞R&DඔऌႵ໙ีđ၂֊ջೆR&Dؿत༢ඔ൞ڵᆴđط࠹१ࣥႻ҂؎э߄෮ၛR&D҂൞၂۱ਅݺู֥սᆷѓĠਸ਼ຓ၂۱ॖูս֥ᆷѓ൞ದनؿૼህ০ണ౨ބሙඔđܴҳཌྷܱඔऌؿतՖ1993୍ᇀ1997୍đᆭ၂ᆷѓં൞ሹਈߎ൞۱ਈᄝն҆ٳസٺ൞༯ࢆ֥đ෮ၛЧ໓ܙ࠹ᆃބཌྷܱ֥॓ᆟҦ֥э߄Ⴕܱđޓཁಖ҂ିቔູ၂۱Ⴕི֥ᆷѓĠč2Ďં൞൧ӆᅝႵੱߎ൞Ӂြܿଆ༢ඔ҂൞၂۱ࡥֆֹ֥ሱദหᆘ֥ख़߂đط൞ھֹᄝಆݓࣜ࠶ֹ໊֥ख़߂đߐओ߅đᆃ۱༢ඔᄝ҂ֹᆭࡗթᄝՎཨдӉ֥ܱ༢đ֒၂۱ֹؓႿఃֹ֥ཌྷؓႪ൝ֹ໊ೞാ֥ൈީđ္߶ᄯӮֹളӁੱ༢ඔ֥ࢆ֮bऎุܴҳᆃੂ۱സđૌؿतКࣘ൧֥SaTWaބMᄝࢆ֮Ġ฿ࣃ֥MaPRၛࠣTᄝࢆ֮WĠഈݚ൞PRᆴႿTWᆴࢆ֮đఃᇏPRᆴࢆ֮ږ؇ޓնđॖି൞࠹१֥ࣥэ߄֝ᇁĠط༆Кസᇶေ൞MބTWᆴࢆ֮đܱႿTWᆴࢆ֮ཌྷྐა༆КದҌ֥o।ಓתଲ٦p 4ēຓ҆ၹٳ༅ĒݓࡅᆟҦౠོ֥႕ཙ თࣜ࠶ҵၳ֥ຓၹࠧݓࡅ֥ᆟҦౠོđֹؓؿᅚ߶ջটਆ۱ٚ૫֥႕ཙđč1Ďݓࡅ֥ඥ൬Ⴊ߲ބᆟҦь০֥ᆰࢤིႋ൞ջটሧࣁ֥ੀཟ֥э߄đၹՎ߶႕ཙದनሧЧթਈĠč2Ďݓࡅ֥ඥ൬Ⴊ߲ބ 19
ᆟҦь০֥ࡗࢤིႋ൞ջটᇅ؇֥ࠒྟэ߄đࠧႮႿຓটሧࣁ֥Ⴄೆ؋௹ଽڿэਔֹࣜ࠶෮ႵᇅࢲܒđӉ௹ु߶ڿэֹ֥٤୪Ӂြࢲܒބ൧ӆؿტӱ؇đࣉطڿэਔದૌ֥ܴđႄఏֹ໓߄ᇅ؇֩ೈߌ֥э߄bૌᆃัԢਔࡗࢤིႋުॉ੮ݓࡅᆟҦؓთؿᅚ֥႕ཙb ࣮නਫ਼൞ğᄝ1993୍֞2001୍ࡗđัԢݓࡅ֥ඥ൬Ⴊ߲ބᆟҦь০֥ࡗࢤིႋؓთࣜ࠶֥႕ཙđࡌഡč1Ďඥ൬ᆟҦ֥ࡗࢤིႋᆺ൞ջটਔ෮Ⴕᇅࢲܒ֥э߄bᆃ၂ࡌഡޭਔඥ൬ᆟҦؓఃᆷѓ֥႕ཙđ࠹ෘളӁੱ༢ඔAൈ,OSᆷѓҐႨ1993୍֥ඔᆴđఃჅᆷѓMaSaPRބTWᄵջೆཌྷႋ୍ٺ֥ඔᆴđ܄ൔೂ༯ğ A=++++,ijiji1993,ijiji1993,1994,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001;=1......30 č4Ē1Ď ᆃAіൕטᆜ֥ളӁੱ༢ඔb j,iࡌഡč2Ď۲ֹGDPοᅶ҂թᄝᆟҦౠོൈ֥ჰႵ֥؇ؿᅚđಖުၛՎ؇࠹ෘ۲ֹྩᆞ֥GDPᆴđಖުԢၛ۲ֹসದඔު֤֞ྩᆞ֥ದनGDPđջೆč3Ē9Ďൔđ֤֞ྩᆞ֥ሧЧթਈđಖުބൌ࠽ሧЧթਈؓб֤ࣼ֞ݓࡅᆟҦջট֥ሧЧੀbൌ࠽ഈ۷ູ॓࿐֥ॉҳٚم൞࠹ෘ1978୍ڿ۪ष٢֞2001୍ࡗ֥౦ঃđၹູ1993୍ڿ۪ष٢ၘࣜࣜਔ15୍đॖၛಪູݓࡅ֥ඥ൬Ⴊ߲ބᆟҦь০֥ࡗࢤིႋၘࣜᄝཌྷֹܱջটᇅ؇֥ࠒྟэ߄bႮႿඔऌ֥ჸܣૌߎ൞Ֆ1993୍षॉҳđᆃш1993୍֥ඔऌοᅶ č3Ē9Ďൔ࠹ෘ,2000୍֥ඔऌο༯૫܄ൔ࠹ෘđ 20
%f=A+,=1....30 č4Ē2Ď 2001,i2001,i2000,i%ᆃf൞۲ֹྩᆞ֥ದनGDP,ః࠹ෘٚم൞Ⴈ2001୍۲ֹ֥ྩᆞ2001,iGDPሹᆴԢၛ۲ֹসದ१֤֞bط2001୍۲ֹ֥ྩᆞGDPሹᆴ࠹ෘٚمೂ༯ğ൮༵࠹ෘ2001୍۲ֹં֥GDPđಖުྩᆞંGDPაൌ࠽GDPᆭࡗ֥ҵएđ֤֞۲ֹ֥ྩᆞ֥GDP,࠹ෘ܄ൔೂ༯ğ 8F=F(1+S),i=1....302001,i1993,ii č4Ē3Ď 3030F2001,i%F=F+(F−F),i=1....302001∑∑,i2001,i2001,i2001,i30i=1=1F∑2001,ii=1 č4Ē4Ď ഈ૫F սі2001୍iֹ֥ંGDP,Fսі2001୍iֹ֥ൌ࠽2001,i2001,i%֥GDP Fսі2001୍iֹ֥ྩᆞ֥GDP,Sսі1993Ē2001୍ࡗ2001,iii֥ؿᅚ؇đ္ࣼ൞ૌ࿊ᄴ֥ൡ֥֒ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ؇b ᆃ۱ൡ֥֒؇ࣼ൞҂թᄝᆟҦౠོൈ֥ჰႵ֥؇đЧ໓֥࠹ෘٚم൞ğၛ1979୍ູࢸđཟభཟު۲౼୍đ࠹ෘ۲ֹन֥ᄹӉ؇bၛՎ؇ູ۲ֹ҂թᄝᆟҦౠོൈ֥ჰႵ֥؇đ 21
і Kᆴ࠹ෘі KK1999,i2000,i 1970-1978%%KֹFAKK ĒĒ i2001j,i20002000,,i2000,i,i SičĎ %K%2000,iK1999,i Кࣘ . .0592 ฿ࣃ . .0658 ފК . .0820 ༆ . .0601 ଽ . .0530 ୡ . .0716 ࠝਟ . .0480 ޑ . .0523 ࡾ ഈݚ . .0742 ࡾ් . .0798 ᆄࡾ . .0731 νߪ . .0344 22
ڞࡹ . .0735 ࡾ༆ . .0439 ת . .0801 ފଲ . .0545 К . .0642 ଲ . .0589 ࿃і Kᆴ࠹ෘі ܼת . .0535 ܼ༆ . .0819 ݚଲ . .0917 ඹԫ . .0832 ᇜ . .0710 ᄉଲ . .0681 ༆ҟ . .0861 ༆ . .0647 ۅ . .0798 ౝݚ . .0802 ୡ༱ . .0798 ྍࡿ . .0563 ሹބ . . .0 .0 іᇏඔऌ൞ัԢࡎၹު֥ჰᆴđ1992୍ࡎູ100đGDPֆູ໊ၡჭbіᇏKսі2000୍iֹ֥ંሧЧթਈđKսі2000,i2000,i%2001୍iֹ֥ൌ࠽ሧЧթਈđKսі2000୍iֹ֥ંሧЧթਈט2000,i 23
ᆜᆴđః࠹ෘٚم൞ 3030K⎡⎤2000,i%K=K+K−K,i=1....302000∑∑,i2000,i2000,i2000,i30⎢⎥⎣i=1=1⎦K∑2000,ii=1 č4Ē5Ď ູਔٳ༅֥ٚьđЧ໓קၬ༯૫ࠫ۱ۀğ %∆K=K−K,j=1999,2000;m=1,2,3j,mj,mj,m č4Ē6Ď ∆Kսіj୍mֹൌ࠽ሧЧթਈაંሧЧթਈ֥ҵएđmĢ1j,mսіתֹ҆čКࣘa฿ࣃaފКaୡaഈݚaࡾ්aᆄࡾaڞࡹaתaܼתaܼ༆aݚଲĎሹބđ2սіᇏֹ҆č༆aଽܞaࠝਟaޑࡾaКaଲaνߪaࡾ༆aފଲĎሹބđ3սі༆ֹ҆čඹԫaౝݚa༆aۅaᇜa༆ҟaୡ༱aྍࡿaᄉଲĎሹބđᆃဢ zK=∆K−∆K,j=1999,2000;m=1,2,3 č4Ē7Ď j+1,mj,mj+1,mzKіղਔmֹj+1୍აj୍ൌ࠽ሧЧթਈაંሧЧթਈj+1,mҵए֥э߄đ္ࣼіղਔᆟҦႪ߲ջট֥ሧЧੀbࡼഈ૫ٳ༅ࢲݔ߸ሹೂ༯đֆ໊ၡჭğIսі2000୍֥ሧЧ࣪ሧ 2000,m і ሧЧੀ߸ሹ zK2000,m/ ∆K∆KzKm Iđ 1999,m20002000m,m2000,m I2000 1 453 % 2 Ē % 24
3 Ē Ē % Ֆіᇏॖၛु֞đתֹ҆2000୍ሧЧੀԛ࣍343ၡჭđᇏ҆ሧЧੀೆၡჭđ༆҆ੀԛၡჭbطཌྷႋ֥2000୍ֹ֥࣪ሧູ ၡჭၡჭބ ༆҆ੀԛᅝ2000୍؇࣪ሧ֥%đбᇗбࢠնđᇏ҆ੀೆᅝ୍؇࣪ሧ֥%,ႮႿת୍҆؇࣪ሧࠎඔбࢠնđ෮ၛሧЧੀᅝ࣪ሧбᇗ҂൞ޓնđჿູ%b ਸ਼ຓᆃшୡസ֥౦ঃಪູбࢠห൹đၹູୡॖၛඪ൞ᆟҦ֥ԍظđՖࡹݓ֞ڿ۪ष٢đࠫެཚ൳ਔ෮Ⴕ֥ᆟҦౠོđطᄝڿ۪ष٢ၛభ֥ؿᅚ؇ᄝಆݓਙభમđ෮ၛೂݔᄝת҆സٺᇏࡼୡസಀԢটॉ੮ᆟҦ֥႕ཙđᄵ߶Ⴕ҂֥ࢲંđοᅶაഈ૫ཌྷ֥ٳ༅ٚمđࣼॖ֤֞K′∆ĢĒၡჭ, ∆K′=ၡ1999,11999,2ჭ,K′∆=ၡჭĠط2000୍֥ᆴٳљູK′∆ĢĒ,32000,1ၡჭ, K′∆=ၡჭ, K′∆=ၡჭ bಖުᄜสႨ܄2000,22000,3ൔč5Ē7Ď֤֞đת҆ሧЧੀೆđᇏ҆ሧЧੀೆ ط༆҆ሧЧੀԛ.ഈ૫ਆᇕෘم֤ԛ֥ඔᆴэ߄бࢠնđᆃ൞ၹູૄՑ࠹ෘႵϜંᆴაൌ࠽ᆴᆭࡗ֥ҵحٳข֥۲۱സđֻ֒ؽᇕෘمԢಀୡުđ۲۱സٺٳข֥ҵحэ߄ᄹնbЧ໓ಪູሧЧੀ֥ٚཟ൞ᆞಒ֥b ෮ၛЧ໓֥ࢲં൞ğ 2000୍đᇏݓ༆҆സٺ൞ሧЧੀԛֹđطᇏ҆ᄵ൞ሧЧੀೆֹđᄝתֹ҆ᇏୡ൞ሧЧੀԛֹđఃᄵ൞ሧЧੀೆֹb 25
ਸ਼ຓླေ఼טਆׄğč1ĎЧ໓෮໌֥ሧЧੀೆੀԛ൞ᆷğൌ࠽ᆴაંᆴ֥бࢠđط҂൞ଖֹሱദඔऌ֥ሺཟбࢠđၹູՖሺཟটुđಆݓ෮ႵസٺሧЧթਈᄝᄹࡆđиࣨࣜ࠶ؿᅚਔbč2Ď໓ᅣ࣮֥ଢ֥҂൞ູਔݓࡅ֥ౠོᆟҦđࣼቔᆀ۱ದطđಪູᄝࣜ࠶҂ؿղ֥౦ঃ༯đะ؇ࣉᅞ൞ປಆсေ֥b෮ၛቔᆀ࣮֥؇ѩ҂ಪູݓֹؿᅚᆭࡗթᄝሢЧᇉഈ֥ؓ৫؛đթᄝ֥ᆺ൞ྟࣜ࠶ᇶุ૫ؓ༎ಌሧჷ֥ࣩᆚ؛bЧ໓࣮֥ଢ֥ࣇࣇ൞ູਔࡼ൙౦۞۞ౢԣđູૌ֥ٳ༅ิ܂၂۱ॖ܂ҕॉ֥ٚمb 6. ᇶေҕॉ໓ང 1ē ݒ౩ຫaॼཬğඥ൬ؓದሧིႋ֥ંٳ༅<+>đתКҍࣜն࿐࿐Бđ 2ē ޠႧğ॓Էྍି৯ათࣜ࠶ൌ৯ҵၳ֥ൌᆣ࣮<+>đࣜ࠶ֹđ 3ē ᅝڄğКസࣜ࠶ᄹӉଆࠣൌᆣٳ༅<+>đᇏଲҍࣜᆟمն࿐đ 4ē ਾğඥ൬ؓሧ֥႕ཙၹٳ༅<+>đ༰ն࿐࿐Бđ 5ē ਾਪਪaႥ഻ğݓთࣜ࠶ؿᅚ࣮ඍ<+>đหࣜ࠶đ 6ē ཫӤaࢮğᇏݓთᆩ്Էྍି৯ათؿᅚҵၳ࣮<+>đֹ࿐აݓ࣮đ2002 7ē ༱Ⴅབğݓთؿᅚҵၳ࣮<+>đᇏݓ۽ြࣜ࠶࣮đ 8ē ྸћaઅתğླྀטӮЧaଽളসٳ۽ათࣜ࠶ᄹӉ<+>đᆄࡾն࿐࿐Бčದ໓ഠ߶॓࿐ϱĎđ 9ē ᇛਅğؓᇏݓთҵएათؿᅚۄᇗն໙ี֥ษં<+>đषؿ࣮đ 10ēޱมğӁြࢲܒაֹ০ၭٳ༅<.>đКࣘ ࣜ࠶ܵԛϱഠ 2001 11ēਾਪਪğ܄܋ҍᆟ࿐đౢն࿐ԛϱഠ<.>đ2000 12ēफğӬ൧ຓ҆ॢࡗᄎათࣜ࠶<.>đКࣘđᇏݓӬ൧ԛϱഠđ 13ēࣲ໓ğᇏݓთࣜ࠶ൌᆣ࣮iࢲܒሇэაؿᅚᅞ<.>đКࣘ ᇏݓ۽ြԛϱഠ 1999 26
14ēകܻaޱλۑğᇏݓğ҂ޙؿᅚ֥ᆟᇍࣜ࠶࿐<.>đКࣘ ᇏݓ࠹߃ԛϱഠ 1999 15ēဗࡹğᇏݓֹӁြࢲܒٳ༅<.>đഈݚ گ֊ն࿐ԛϱഠ 1993. 16ēဗषᇑğᇏݓ༆҆նषؿᅞ<.>đܼᇜđܼת࢝ტԛϱഠđ 17ēᅦؗڶaᯟӮਟğᇏݓთࣜ࠶ҵၳაླྀטؿᅚ<.>đКࣘ ᇏݓ۽ြԛϱഠ 2001 18ēᅦॖᄉğთࣜ࠶ᆟҦiંࠎԤაૐݓࡅൌ<.>đКࣘ ᇏݓ۽ြԛϱഠ 2001 19ēᇒཫૹğᆟکࡗҍᆟሇ၍ᆦڱં<.>đഈݚ ৫ྐ߶࠹ԛϱഠ 1998 Theoretical Analysis on the Reasons of Chinese Territorial Economic Gap Yongsheng Wu 4DIPPM PG &DPOPNJDT BOE .BOBHFNFOU 5TJOHIVB 6OJWFSTJUZ
Abstract:This paper reviews the history of Chinese economic development, then analyze the influnce of regional economic gap, summize the study of Chinese economist on this problem. At last, this paper builds regional production function. Using this function, it examine the inner reason which result in regional economic gap, and examine the capital flow đamong all the regions, which is induced by state policy. Key words:regional development gap,regional production function,capital flow ቔᆀࡥࢺğႥ഻č ĒĎଳđණൖ࣮ളđౢն࿐ࣜ࠶ܵ࿐ჽđ࣮ਵთğҍᆟඥ൬đ၂Ϯनޙđࣜ࠶ᄹӉb߅ğ Ē đ đ EĒmail: wuysh@ 27
