2005/19ꆡퟜ뗚327웚짌튵퇐뺿ꆡCOMMERCIALRESEARCH컄헂뇠뫅:1001-148X(2005)19-0030-05얷풪쟸닆헾폫믵뇒헾닟럇뛔돆탔듮엤뗄뺭볃킧펦럖컶ꆪꆪꆪ듮뇣뎵컊쳢뗄쏉듺뛻ꆪ뢥삳쏷쒣탍럖컶붹샲샲1,붹쿾쯉2(11뫓놱뺭쎳듳톧,뫓놱쪯볒ꆡ050061;21뫓놱얩튵듳톧뺭쎳톧풺,뫓놱놣뚨ꆡ071000)햪튪:얷풪웴뚯뫳,얷쏋춳튻뗄믵뇒헾닟뫍쿠뛔럖즢뗄닆헾헾닟돉캪얷쏋헾닟킭뗷뗄튻룶뫋탄컊쳢ꆣ닉폃튻냣뻹뫢뗄럖컶랽램,퓋폃쏉듺뛻ꆪ뢥삳쏷쒣탍뛔헢튻럇뛔돆탔훆뛈듮엤쯹듸살뗄듮뇣뎵컊쳢뷸탐쇋럖컶,횸돶돉풱맺닆헾헾닟킭뗷쪧쇩뫍닆헾캣믺붫믡틽랢얷쏋헻쳥뗄믣싊캣믺뫍틸탐튵캣믺뗈튻쾵쇐쿖쪵컊쳢ꆣ맘볼듊:닆헾헾닟;믵뇒헾닟;럇뛔돆탔듮엤;쏉듺뛻ꆪ뢥삳쏷쒣탍;듮뇣뎵컊쳢;ퟮ훕듻뿮죋훐춼럖샠뫅:F810ꆡꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:ATheAnalysisofEconomicalEffectsofAsymmetryFiscalandMonetaryPolicyArrangementinEuroAreaJIAOLi21li,JIAOXiao2song2(11BusinessCollege,HebeiUniversityofEconomyandTrade,Shijiazhuang,Hebei050061,China;21SchoolofEconomics,HebeiAgricultureUniversity,Baoding,Hebei071000,China)Abstract:ThecoordinationofunifiedmonetarypolicywithrelativelydecentralizedfiscalpolicyhasbecomeakeyproblemsinceEurostarted1ThegeneralequilibriummethodologyisusedinthispapertogetherwithM-Fmodeltosystematicallyana2lyzethefree-riderproblemresultedfromtheasymmetryinstitutionarrangement1ItpointsoutthefailureoffiscalcoordinationofthemembercountriesmayresultinaseriesofexchangeraterisksandthebankingsystemcrisesinEU1Keywords:fiscalpolicy;monetarypolicy;asymmetryarrangement;M-Fmodel;free-riderproblem;lastresortꆡꆡ튻ꆢ틽퇔뛾ꆢ춳튻믵뇒폫럖즢닆헾헾닟럇뛔돆뷡릹뗄뺭볃1999쓪1퓂,얷풪죧웚웴뚯쇋ꆣ얷풪뗄떮짺,쫇킧펦럖컶맺볊뺭볃쪷짏뻟폐뮮쪱듺틢틥뗄튻볾듳쫂ꆣꋙ뺭믵솪(튻)얷풪쟸돉풱맺듮뇣뎵컊쳢뗄쏉듺뛻ꆪ뢥삳쏋평듋삭뾪쇋얷훞믵뇒춳튻뗄쒻ꆣ쏷쒣탍럖컶얷훞믵뇒솪쏋틢캶ퟅ얷풪쟸12맺쪹폃춳튻뗄믵퓚튻릲춬믵뇒쟸쓚,맘폚닆헾헾닟뗄킭뗷폐솽훖뇒ꆪꆪꆪ얷풪ꆣ춳튻뗄믵뇒뇘뚨틢캶ퟅ춳튻뗄믵뇒헾늻춬뗄훷쇷맛뗣:웤튻쫇훷헅뺭볃믵뇒솪쏋펦퓚솪쏋닟,캪듋,얷풪쟸맺볒뻍쪧좥쇋틔믵뇒헾닟(믣싊)닣듎짏벯훐듳늿럖맺볒풤쯣,듓뛸쪹쓇킩퓢쫜돥믷뗄뗷뷚놾맺뫪맛뺭볃뗄쫖뛎ꆣ뺡맜쿖퓚폐죋뛔믣싊뗷뷚돉풱맺쓜벰쪱뗃떽틆횧뢶,복짙뺭볃뗄늻컈뚨탔뗄ퟷ폃듳킡쳡돶쇋훊틉,떫훕뺿쫇헾뢮쓜릻횱뷓쪹폃(샠쯆폚쏀맺뗄솪냮닆헾훆뛈)ꆣ떫닆헾헾닟뗄킭뗷짦뗄쫖뛎ꆣ쪧좥믵뇒헾닟틢캶ퟅ튻맺뺭볃돶쿖쪧뗷쪱,벰떽룷맺룼짮닣듎뗄훷좨죃뛉컊쳢ꆣ틲듋,퓚얷쏋쒿헾뢮붫늻뗃늻룼뛠뗘틀삵닆헾헾닟쫖뛎ꆣ폚쫇,죋쏇잰튻쳥뮯뗄놳뺰쿂,뿖엂뮹컞램듯떽헢퇹룟뗄뫏ퟷ돌떣탄춳튻뗄믵뇒헾닟폫럖즢뗄닆헾헾닟,붫돉캪뺭믵뛈ꆣ웤뛾,죧맻늻쓜ퟶ떽닆헾헾닟춳튻퓚훐퇫닆헾믺솪쏋뗄ꆰ죭샟ꆱ,(폈웤쫇쿖퓚얷훞뺭볃뗍쏔뗄쟩뿶쿂릹쿂,쓇쎴펦룃퓊탭룷돉풱맺쇩믮쪹폃닆헾헾닟,춨룼쫇죧듋)ꆣ헢뻍쫇퇐뺿얷풪믲헟쮵얷훞뺭믵솪쏋뗄맽닆헾헾닟ퟔ뚯컈뚨웷뗄ퟷ폃뛔뺭볃뷸탐쓦훜웚뗷튻룶뫋탄컊쳢ꆣ뷚ꆣꆡ쫕룥죕웚:2004-04-03ퟷ헟볲뷩:붹샲샲(1974-),얮,뫓놱뺭쎳듳톧짌톧풺뷌쪦ꆣ퇐뺿랽쿲:뫪맛뺭볃헾닟ꆢ맺볊뷰죚ꆣ' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
ퟜ뗚327웚붹샲샲:얷풪쟸닆헾폫믵뇒헾닟럇뛔돆탔듮엤뗄뺭볃킧펦럖컶ꆤ3ꆡ1ꆤ뫪맛뺭볃쓚췢뻹뫢쒿뇪뗄춬쪱쪵쿖폐삵폚닆헾뫍믵(M-F)쒣탍ꆣ쫗쿈릹퓬얷풪쟸12룶돉풱맺퓚뾪럅뇒헾닟뗄폐킧엤뫏,뛸쒿잰얷풪쟸쓚룷맺뺭볃훜웚늻뺡뺭볃쳵볾쿂ꆰ킡맺ꆱ쒣탍튻냣뻹뫢뗄믹놾뿲볜:쿠춬,뛔믵뇒헾닟뗄튪쟳튲늻튻훂ꆣ틲듋,퓚믵뇒쟸닣M/P=YL(i)(1)듎짏뫜쓑횴탐춳튻뗄믵뇒헾닟살엤뫏룷맺뗄닆헾헾닟ꆣY=C(Y-T)+I+NX(Y,Y3,ꛅ)+G(2)얷쏋샭쫂믡뛔캴살뺭볃랢햹햽싔뗄쒿뇪뚨캪:ꆰꆭꆭ퓚BP=NX(Y,Y3,ꛅ)+K3(i,i)(3)헻룶릲춬쳥쓚듙뷸뺭볃뗄킳뗷폫욽뫢랢햹,힢훘뮷뺳놣i=3i(4)뮤뗄돖탸폫럇춨헍탔퓶뎤,뺭볃돉킧뗄룟뛈뻛뫏,룟쮮랽돌(1-3)럖뇰쏨쫶쇋ꆰ킡맺ꆱ맺쓚뗄짌욷쫐ힼ뗄뻍튵폫짧믡놣뮤;짺믮쮮욽폫짺믮훊솿뗄늻뛏쳡뎡,믵뇒쫐뎡뫍맺볊쫕횧뒦폚욽뫢뗄ힴ첬ꆣ헢튲쫇룟,틔벰돉풱맺볤뺭볃폫짧믡뗄뻛뫏폫췅뷡ꆣꆱꋚ캪쇋쪵M-F쒣탍뗄죽룶뫋탄랽돌ꆣ랽돌(4)뇭쏷퓚얷풪쿖헢튻쒿뇪,퓚쿖탐뗄믵뇒닆헾헾닟뗄럇뛔돆탔듮엤뗄쟸쓚룷맺쫇샻싊뗄볛룱뷓쫜헟,틲뛸맺쓚샻싊i뗈폚뷡릹쿂,닆헾헾닟쿔좻뻍돉캪뺭볃퓶뎤햽싔훐뗄맘볼탔얷쏋ퟜ쳥샻싊쮮욽3iꆣ웤훐,P듺뇭맺쓚닺돶볛룱,헾닟틲쯘ꆣ맘폚믵뇒쟸쓚튻룶뛀솢뗄훐퇫틸탐뫍뛠룶뛀L뇭쪾쪵볊믵뇒탨쟳,쫇샻싊뗄복몯쫽,놾맺쪵볊맺솢닆헾떱뻖볤뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃컊쳢,뗂맺냘쇖뫩놤듳톧쏱쫕죫뗄퓶몯쫽;맺쓚닺돶좡뻶폚ퟜ탨쟳,쯼평맺쓚(HumboldtUniversity)뗄HaraldUhlig퓋폃늩?싛뗄랽램쿻럑ꆢ춶ꆢ뺻돶뿚뫍헾뢮횧돶ퟩ돉ꆣY캪놾맺맺쏱뛔헢튻컊쳢뷸탐쇋럖컶ꆣ뒫춳뗄뫪맛뺭볃샭싛듳뛠퇐뺿닺돶;Y3캪맺췢닺돶쮮욽ꆣG쫓캪췢짺뇤솿,맺볊퓚튻룶훷좨맺볒쓚늿죧뫎춨맽닆헾폫믵뇒헾닟뗄킭뗷살쫕횧BP훷튪랴펳쎳틗닮뛮뫍놾쇷뚯뗄뇤뮯ꆣ붫짏욽뺭볃늨뚯,춬쪱쪵쿖쓚췢뻹뫢ꆣ뛸뛔폚믵뇒튻쳥뮯쫶붨솢뗄쒣탍폃춼1뇭쪾돶살,뫡훡캪맺쏱쫕죫Y,쳵볾쿂뗄닆헾헾닟샭싛퇐뺿뮹늻짮죫,뇊헟쫔춼듓튻냣ퟝ훡캪맺쓚샻싊i,IS쟺쿟쿲폒쿂랽쟣킱,뇭쪾뷏뗍뻹뫢뗄뷇뛈뛔헢튻럇뛔돆탔뷡릹쿂닺짺뗄듮뇣뎵컊쳢ퟶ튻쾵춳럖컶ꆣ쏉듺뛻ꆪ뢥삳쏷(M-F)쒣탍쫇퇐뺿뾪럅뺭볃뮷뺳쿂닆헾폫믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔뗄뺭뗤쒣탍횮튻ꆣ룃쒣탍뗄볙뚨폐:(1)뾪럅뗄킡맺(쫀뷧볈뚨샻싊뗄뷓쫜헟);(2)뺲첬뗄믣싊풤웚;(3)놾췪좫쇷뚯;(4)풴캴뗃떽돤럖샻폃,ퟜ릩룸쟺쿟뢻폐췪좫떯탔ꆣ춨맽룃쒣탍뗄럖컶뗃돶쇋맺볊뺭볃톧훐ퟮ캪맣랺죏뿉뗄뷡싛:뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈쿂,믵뇒헾닟뗷뷚뺭볃벫캪폐솦,뛸닆헾헾닟쿠뛔좱랦벨킧;만뚨믣싊훆뛈쿂,퓲쿠랴ꆣ떱좻헢킩뷡싛뗄뗃돶쫇틀삵폚쒣탍믹놾볙짨춼1ꆡ얷풪쟸쓚ꆰ킡맺ꆱM-F쒣탍뗄ꆣ캪쇋쪹뗃룃쒣탍뗄럖컶룼볓쳹뷼뺭볃쿖쪵,뺭볃뗄샻싊쮮욽뛔펦뷏룟뗄맺쏱쫕죫,LM쟺쿟쿲폒짏랽톧볒폖뛔쒣탍뗄볙짨뷸탐쇋탞헽,늢붫쒣탍삩햹떽:쟣킱뇭쪾쇷뚯탔욫뫃쪹뗃뷏룟뗄샻싊쮮욽뛔펦뷏룟뗄(1)듳맺쒣탍(샻싊뗄볛룱훆뚩헟);(2)좡쿻맘폚맺쏱쫕죫ꆣISꆢLM쟺쿟붻뗣뇭쪾짌욷뫍믵뇒쫐뎡뗄놾췪좫쇷뚯뗄볙뚨;(3)틽죫풤웚틲쯘;(4)럱뚨쓚늿뻹뫢뗣ꆣBP쟺쿟캪췢늿뻹뫢쿟,퓚얷풪쟸돉풱볛룱만뚨뗄볙짨,뾼달볛룱뇤뚯뛔쪵볊믵뇒폠뛮뫍ퟜ맺놾췪좫쇷뚯뗄볙짨쳵볾쿂,쟸쓚룷돉풱맺쯹쏦쇙릩룸뗄펰쿬ꆣ평듋,쪹뗃삩햹뫳뗄M-F쒣탍돉캪뫜뗄BP쟺쿟캪쮮욽뗄ꆣ벴튻맺샻싊폫췢늿샻싊늻뗈믡뫃뗄럖컶릤뻟ꆣ틽웰놾뗄듳솿쇷죫믲쇷돶,튲뻍쫇쮵놾쇷뚯뗄랴ퟛ짏쯹쫶,춳튻뫳뗄얷풪쟸돉캪쫀뷧짏ퟮ랢듯뗄펦돌뛈풶듳폚룃맺뗄믵뇒탨쟳ꆣ틲뛸,룃맺뗄쓚췢춬뗘쟸횮튻,2000쓪웤GDP틑햼쫀뷧GDPퟜ솿뗄쪱뻹뫢뗣벴ISꆢLM뫍BP쟺쿟뗄붻뗣ꆣ쇭췢,얷풪16%,뷶듎폚쏀맺캻뻓쫀뷧뗚뛾;춬쓪쎳틗뛮춻웆1쟸쓚ꆰ킡맺ꆱ평폚믵뇒훆뚩좨짏붻얷훞훐퇫틸탐,웤췲틚얷풪ꆣ얷풪쟸ퟷ캪튻룶뺭볃믵뇒솪쏋,뿉틔붫웤훷뚯뗷헻믵뇒릩펦솿틆뚯LM쟺쿟(믵뇒헾닟)뗄릦쫓캪M-F쒣탍훐뗄ꆰ듳맺ꆱ,뛸붫쟸쓚뗄룷룶돉풱쓜죵뮯,횻쓜퓚뛌웚쓚춨맽놾뗄쇷죫뫍쇷돶펰쿬놾맺쫓캪쒣탍훐뗄ꆰ킡맺ꆱꆣ1999쓪얷풪웴뚯뫳,뺭믵맺쪵볊믵뇒릩펦솿ꆣ훐뎤웚쓚,뮹뿉틔춨맽맺쓚볛룱솪쏋쓚늿12맺볤믣싊쫇만뚨뗄(춳튻뗄믵뇒쫇만뚨쮮욽뗄뇤뚯,펰쿬놾맺쪵볊믵뇒폠뛮늢볤뷓뛔믵뇒쫐믣싊뗄튻훖짮뮯탎첬,뻟폐룼룟뗄췋돶돉놾),뛸얷뎡릩쟳듸살펰쿬ꆣ틲뛸,ꆰ킡맺ꆱ쒣탍훐LM쟺쿟뛔풪쟸뛔췢퓲닉좡릲춬뢡뚯뗄믣싊훆뛈ꆣ쟸쓚놾쫐뎡IS쟺쿟(닆헾헾닟)뗄엤뫏릦쓜쫜떽튻뚨뗄쿞훆ꆣ헢췪좫튻쳥뮯,샻싊평얷훞훐퇫틸탐쳥쾵춳튻짨뚨ꆣ볛퇹,돉풱맺쓚췢뻹뫢뗄쪵쿖룼뛠뗘틀삵폚IS뫍BP쟺룱뻟폐햳탔쳘헷,닺욷냼삨쎳틗짌욷뫍럇쎳틗짌욷ꆣ쿟뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ춬퇹,뮹뿉틔룹뻝쿠춬뗄풭샭릹퓬얷풪쟸틲듋,떥룶돉풱맺ퟜ탨쟳뗄뇤뚯늻뷶믡펰쿬놾맺짌헻쳥뗄ꆰ듳맺ꆱ쒣탍(춼2)ꆣ폫ꆰ킡맺ꆱ쒣탍늻춬욷,뛸쟒뮹믡춨맽쎳틗짌욷,볤뷓뗘펰쿬웤쯻돉풱맺뗘쫇,ꆰ듳맺ꆱ뗄LM쟺쿟뿉틔평춳튻뗄얷훞훐퇫룹뗄짌욷짺닺ꆣ퓚짏쫶볙짨뗄쳵볾쿂,릹퓬쫊뫏럖컶얷뻝뺭볃탎쫆훷뚯뷸탐뗷헻ꆣ쇭췢,퓚샭싛짏,볙뚨헻풪쟸쳘뚨닆헾믵뇒헾닟듮엤뗄삩햹뗄쏉듺뛻ꆪ뢥삳쏷룶얷풪쟸뛔쫀뷧웤쯻맺볒닉폃뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈,늢쟒' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
ꆤ3ꆡ2ꆤ짌튵퇐뺿2005/19놾쿠뮥쇷뚯쫇늻췪좫뗄,틲뛸웤BP쟺쿟쿲폒짏랽쟣킱늢뿉틔짏쿂틆뚯ꆣ춼4ꆡ얷훞퇫탐쳡룟샻싊풪쟸쓚룷맺닆헾떱뻖뻍믡닺짺퓶볓닆헾돠ퟖ뗄쓚퓚뚯춼2ꆡ얷풪쟸ꆰ듳맺ꆱM-F쒣탍믺,늢춨맽퓶볓뾪횧믲헟복짙쮰쫕뗄랽쪽삭뚯뺭볃믘쿂쏦춨맽쒣탍살럖컶퓚얷풪쟸쿖탐뗄닆헾믵뇒헾짽ꆣ평폚쎿튻룶돉풱맺뗄닺돶퓚뺭믵솪쏋쓚늿뷶햼튻닟뗄럇뛔돆뷡릹쿂,얷쏋헻쳥랶캧쓚돶쿖돉놾췆뚯탍뚨뗄럝뛮,틲듋,볙뚨퓚웤쯻맺볒닆헾헾닟늻뇤뗄쟩돥믷쪱,퇫탐뫍룷맺닆헾떱뻖뛔뺭볃뮷뺳뇤뚯뗄튻쾵뿶쿂,룃맺닆헾떱뻖뻍믡닉좡떥뇟삩헅탔닆헾헾닟ꆣ쇐랴펦ꆣ쫗쿈,얷훞훐퇫틸탐붫쳡룟샻싊틔펦뛔뿉쓜떫평폚룷맺닆헾떱뻖쫇쿠뛔뛀솢뗄,죧맻쯹폐뗄닆헾떽살뗄춨믵엲헍,헢쫆뇘뷸튻늽뛔얷쏋헻쳥뺭볃듸살떱뻖뚼죏캪ퟔ벺횻쫇믵뇒솪쏋쓚늿튻룶캢늻ퟣ뗀뗄뷴쯵킧펦,볓듳뢺뗄닺돶좱뿚ꆣ쏦뛔헢훖뢺쏦돥믷,ꆰ킡맺ꆱ,놾맺뗄삩헅탔닆헾헾닟늻믡뛔솪쏋헻쳥닺짺웤돉풱맺붫닉좡삩헅탔뗄돠ퟖ닆헾헾닟,퓚튻룶믵뇒첫듳뗄펰쿬뗄뮰,듮뇣뎵컊쳢뻍닺짺쇋ꋛꆣ솪쏋쓚늿,뾼싇떽늻춬뗄뺭볃돥믷샠탍,웤훐ퟮ병뗄볙뚨얷풪쟸G맺퓚얷훞퇫탐쳡룟샻싊뫳,룃맺듮엤펦룃쫇죃룷맺닆헾헾닟펦뛔쳘뚨맺볒뗄탨쟳돥믷헾뢮닉좡떥뇟돠ퟖ닆헾헾닟,떼훂G맺IS쟺쿟쿲폒뛸평믵뇒헾닟뛔헻룶솪쏋쓚늿뗄돉놾췆뚯탍돥믷ퟶ돶ퟔ훷틆뚯ꆣG맺삩헅탔닆헾헾닟퓚뛌웚쓚춨맽돋쫽킧랴펦ꆣ삩햹뗄M-F쒣탍퓚튻룶볲뷠뗄뿲볜쿂쟥컺뗘펦뗄ퟷ폃쪹뗃놾맺닺돶퓶볓,늢붵뗍쇋쪧튵싊ꆣ떫춬뷢쫍쇋듮뇣뎵컊쳢,뛔얷쏋헻쳥벰웤쯼돉풱맺뢺쏦뗄쪱,쯼튪퓚얷훞뷰죚쫐뎡짏돯뷨뷰폃폚쏖늹뺭뎣헋틧돶킧펦ꆣ떫쯼튲듦퓚튻킩늻ퟣ,벴컞램붫돠ퟖ뗄뚯뮧뗄돠ퟖꆣ(LM0듓쫴폚BP쟺쿟쿲폒틆뚯훁LM1)첬샛믽벴햮컱컊쳢쓉죫쒣탍럖컶횮훐ꆣIS1,LM1뫍BP죽쳵쟺쿟쿠붻폚탂뗄쓚췢뻹뫢뗣Cꆣ캪쇋뇣폚럖컶,늻럁볙뚨퓚퇐뺿뗄웰뗣,얷풪쟸헢튻맽돌ퟮ훕쪹뗃G맺떥랽쏦쳡룟쇋닺돶뫍뻍튵쮮뒦퓚쓚췢뻹뫢뗣A(벴쪹폐욫닮늢늻펰쿬쪵훊탔뗄뷡욽,퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏뗖쿻쇋평폚얷훞퇫탐쳡룟샻싊쮮욽싛)ꆣ벴퓚3i뗣얷풪쟸듯떽돤럖뻍튵Y3ꆣ듋쪱,평폚쏦쇙췢짺뗄릩룸돥믷(샽죧쫀뷧풭폍볛룱뗄짏헇뛔놾맺뺭볃퓬돉뗄뢺쏦펰쿬ꆣ,죧춼떫뛔폚얷풪쟸헻쳥뛸퇔,웤ퟮ훕킧맻늢늻샖맛ꆣ3)ꆣ퓚헢튻뢺쏦돥믷뗄펰쿬쿂,얷쏋쮮욽짏뗄ퟜ릩룸쟺쿟쿲ퟳ짏랽틆뚯,ퟜ쳥닺돶쮮욽쫜떽펰쿬룹뻝삩햹뗄M-F쒣탍(춼5)훐쯹쏨쫶뗄쓇퇹,퓚,욫샫돤럖뻍튵뗣,떽Y1뗣,돶쿖뢺뗄닺돶좱뿚ꆣ춬뛌웚쓚,평폚G맺떥뇟뗄닆헾삩헅헾닟,쪹뗃얷풪쪱쟸헻쳥뗄IS쟺쿟평IS0(e0)틆훁IS1(e0)(틲캪G,얷쏋헻쳥컯볛쮮욽럇틢풸탔짏짽,돊쿖춨믵엲헍쟷쫆,듓뛸뛔얷훞퇫탐놣돖컯볛컈뚨뗄쒿뇪퓬돉췾맺쫇얷쏋뗄ퟩ돉늿럖)ꆣ평폚ퟜ탨쟳삩헅,쪹뗃컯볛킲ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,얷훞훐퇫틸탐붫놻웈닉좡쳡룟샻돊쿖짏헇쟷쫆,늢쪹뗃얷쏋믵뇒쫐뎡샻싊놻웈퓙듎짏싊뗄랽쪽틔펦뛔춨헍톹솦ꆣ퓚탂뗄뻹뫢샻싊i1쮮욽짽ꆣ퓚뗣E,얷풪쟸틔췢뗄놾쇷죫틔죚춨ꆰ듳맺ꆱ짏뺭뎣헋뮧돠ퟖ늢쪹웤믣싊짏짽훁e1(얷풪뛔췢짽,붫뷸튻늽퓶듳뢺뗄닺돶좱뿚ꆣ(춼4)횵)ꆣ뛸얷풪믣싊뗄짏짽폖쪹IS1(e0)쟺쿟쿲ퟳ쿂랽춼3ꆡ얷쏋쏦쇙돉놾췆뚯탍돥믷웤듎,캪쇋뇜쏢놾맺뺭볃ힴ뿶뗄뷸튻늽뛱뮯춼5ꆡ얷풪쟸G맺떥뇟삩헅탔닆헾헾닟,얷' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
ퟜ뗚327웚붹샲샲:얷풪쟸닆헾폫믵뇒헾닟럇뛔돆탔듮엤뗄뺭볃킧펦럖컶ꆤ3ꆡ3ꆤ믘틆훁IS2(e1)ꆣBP(eo)쿲짏틆훁BP(e1),ퟮ훕뮯룷맺볤뗄쎬뛜,늢ퟨ낭퇫탐뛀솢믵뇒헾닟뗄쪵쪩뛔IS2(e1)ꆢLM뫍BP(e1)쿠붻폚탂뗄쓚췢뻹뫢뗣D,뎤웚컯볛컈뚨듸살뗄늻샻펰쿬ꆣ틲듋,헽죧얷쏋캯풱죧춼6ꆣ믡죏캪:ꆰ짨볆뺭볃폫믵뇒솪쏋뗄닆헾믺훆쏦쇙뗄훷튪쳴햽퓚폚,죧뫎퓚ퟔ훷탔ꆢ풼쫸탔뫍킭뗷탔횮볤톰쟳튻훖쫊떱뗄ퟩ뫏ꆣꆱꋝ얷훞솪쏋쓚늿,닆헾폫믵뇒헾닟뗄럇뛔돆탔듮엤쯹떼훂뗄듮뇣뎵컊쳢쫇헾닟킭뗷컊쳢뗄뫋탄,늻뷶잱퓚뗄컊쳢뮹뫜뛠,뛸쟒뮹쎻폐뗃떽죋쏇ퟣ릻뗄맘힢,쒿잰뗄쳖싛훷튪벯훐퓚얷풪쟸틸탐튵뗄춳튻볠맜컊쳢틔벰ퟮ훕듻뿮좨컊쳢ꆣퟔ얷풪1999쓪1퓂1죕웴뚯틔살,얷훞틸탐튵랢짺쇋짮뿌뗄뇤뮯,얷훞풭살럖룮뗄뷰죚쫐뎡쟷폚춳튻,훰붥탎돉쇋튻룶룼짮뗄ꆢ쇷뚯탔룼잿뗄뷰죚쫐춼뎡ꆣ얷풪뗄웴뚯뷸튻늽쟥돽쇋늻샻폚탎돉춳튻얷훞틸6ꆡ얷풪쟸훐뗄췢늿늻뺭볃탐쫐뎡뗄헏낭,볓쯙쇋틸탐튵뗄훘ퟩ뫍늢릺뗄늽랥ꆣ(뛾)킡뷡뺡맜얷풪쟸틸탐뗄헢킩뇤뮯쫇튻룶붥뷸뗄맽돌,떫헢퓚튻믵뇒솪쏋쓚늿,뾼싇떽늻춬뗄뺭볃돥믷샠틑뺭뛔얷풪쟸쿖폐틸탐튵뗄볠맜뫍럧쿕뿘훆쳡돶쇋룼탍,웤훐ퟮ병뗄듮엤펦룃쫇죃닆헾헾닟펦뛔쳘뚨맺볒룟뗄튪쟳ꆣ뗄탨쟳돥믷뛸평믵뇒헾닟뛔헻룶솪쏋쓚늿뗄돉놾췆뚯ꆶ십쮹쳘샯뫕쳘쳵풼ꆷ(볲돆ꆶ십풼ꆷ)뫍ꆶ얷훞탍돥믷ퟶ돶랴펦ꆣ떫컊쳢퓚폚믵뇒솪쏋쓚늿,쒳튻돉훐퇫틸탐쳥쾵쳵샽ꆷ뗈램싉컄볾좷솢쇋틸탐볠맜뫍캣풱맺돖탸뗄닆헾돠ퟖ믡춨맽믵뇒쟾뗀룸웤쯻돉풱맺뺭믺럀랶뗄훆뛈탔뿲볜ꆣ쒿잰얷풪쟸뗄틸탐믹놾짏죔쫴볃듸살뢺쏦뗄틧돶킧펦ꆣ뇊헟퓋폃M-F쒣탍쟥컺뗘폚럖즢볠맜쒣쪽,룷맺훐퇫틸탐믲쏅뗄믺릹돐떣볠햹쪾쇋믵뇒쟸쓚닆헾킭뗷쪧쇩쯹듸살뗄듮뇣뎵컊쳢ꆣ맜횰쓜ꆣ얷훞훐퇫틸탐횻뢺퓰훆뚨믵뇒헾닟,늻뢺퓰떱퇫탐닉좡뷏룟샻싊펦뛔돉놾췆뚯탍돥믷쪱,죧맻쯹틸탐볠맜,떫뻟폐튻킩킭뗷뫍톯뗄릦쓜ꆣ폐돉풱맺뚼뛔헢튻돥믷ퟶ돶볤뷓랴펦,닉좡퓶볓닆헾뛔폚틸탐뿧맺믺릹쫇춳튻볠맜뮹쫇럖즢볠맜,컞돠ퟖ뗄랽쪽뇜쏢뛔놾맺뺭볃듸살뢺쏦펰쿬,쓇쎴,얷싛톧쫵뷧뮹쫇틸탐뷧뚼듦퓚뫜듳헹싛ꆣ맺볊믵뇒믹뷰훞퇫탐ퟮ훕붫늻뷶펦뛔돉놾췆뚯탍돥믷,뛸쟒뮹튪뛔ퟩ횯뛔얷훞퇫탐늻뻟폐볠맜횰쓜뫍ퟮ훕듻뿮좨짮뇭떣닆헾탨쟳돥믷ퟶ돶랴펦,웤ퟮ훕뷡맻믡쪹뗃쎿튻룶돉폇ꆣ얷훞퇫탐탐뎤뛅틁즭놴뫕튲죏캪,얷훞탨튪룼볓풱맺뗄ힴ뿶뇤뗃룼퓣ꆣ벯훐뗄틸탐볠맜쳥쾵,얷훞퇫탐펦퓚헢랽쏦랢믓룼듳춨맽틔짏럖컶,얷풪쟸쓚G맺닆헾돠ퟖ뗄퓶볓,쪹뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ듓틸탐뷧뗄랴펦살뾴,쯻쏇듳뛠쾣췻춳튻볠뗃놾맺뛌웚ퟜ탨쟳삩듳,떥뛀쪵쿖쇋쳡룟쫕죫뗄쒿뗄,맜횰쓜,볲뮯볠맜닣듎,붵뗍틸탐뗄뺭펪돉놾ꆣ뮹폐떫좴룸얷쏋헻쳥듸살쇋뢺쏦뗄틧돶킧펦,쪹웤돐떣쇋췢뗄톧헟횸돶,ꆰ뷰죚럖즢볠맜늻샻폚뷰죚쫐뎡튻쳥늿늻뺭볃뗄듺볛ꆣ뻟쳥뇭쿖캪:(1)얷쏋헻쳥믣싊짏뮯,쎻폐춳튻뗄틸탐볠맜믺릹,틸탐뗄뿧맺늢릺뫍뷰짽,쪹뗃ퟜ뗄뺻돶뿚복짙;(2)탂뗄뻹뫢샻싊풶룟폚웚죚튵컱튻쳥뮯뻍늻믡싵돶쪵훊탔뗄늽랥ꆱ(Giavazzi,돵쮮욽ꆣ평폚얷쏋헻쳥샻싊쮮욽뗄짏짽,G맺떥뛀삩듳1999)ꆣ뛸룷맺뗄볠맜떱뻖퓲죏캪,횻튪뷸튻늽춳튻닆헾돠ퟖ뗄헾닟벷돶쇋웤쯻돉풱맺뗄쮽죋춶;(3)평볠맜맦퓲,볓잿쮫뇟쓋훁뛠뇟킭ퟷ,쿖폐뗄볠맜뿲볜폚쟸쓚풴뗄ퟔ평쇷뚯,G맺뛌웚뎬뛮탨쟳튲삭뚯쇋웤뻍뿉틔쫊펦뷰죚튵랢햹뗄탨튪ꆣ쯻맺볒뗄탨쟳,떼훂쇋웤쯻돉풱맺컯볛쮮욽뗄짏헇(G퓚얷훞퇫탐쫇럱돤떱ퟮ뫳듻뿮죋뗄컊쳢짏,튻킩맺쫤돶춨믵엲헍);(4)죧맻쎿튻룶돉풱맺뚼닉좡헢훖톧헟죏캪,죧맻얷훞훐퇫틸탐쿲쿝죫삧쓑뗄뷰죚믺릹틔쇚캪?뗄헾닟,돉풱맺뗄쫽솿풽뛠,헢훖뢺쏦틧돶킧쳡릩뻈훺,붫믡닺짺뗀뗂럧쿕컊쳢,늻샻폚럧쿕뿘펦풽듳,뒫능쯙뛈풽뿬,풽믡쯰몦얷쏋헻쳥뢣샻쮮욽ꆣ훆ꆣ뛸쟒얷훞퇫탐듦퓚퇏훘뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆컊쳢,쯼늢얷풪쟸쫇평뻟폐릲춬샻틦뗄죴룉돉풱맺ퟩ돉,헢훖벯췅늻쓜쿱놾맺틸탐볠맜믺릹쓇퇹죝틗쇋뷢뷰죚믺릹뺿뺹샻틦뻟폐릫릲닺욷뗄쳘헷,틲듋벯췅훐뗄쎿튻돉풱뚼폐쫇돶쿖쇋쇷뚯탔컊쳢뮹쫇늻뗖햮컊쳢ꆣ죧죴뛔늻틔ퟮ킡뗄듺볛쒱쟳ퟔ짭ퟮ듳뮯샻틦뗄쓚퓚뚯믺,헢뻍쫇뗖햮뗄틸탐뷸탐뻈훺,퇫탐붫쏦쇙뫜듳뗄럧쿕ꆣ쇭캪쪲쎴쎿튻돉풱뚼폐ꆰ듮뇣뎵ꆱ뛸ퟸ쿭웤돉늢닺짺뢺췢췢,쯻쏇뮹죏캪,퇫탐죧죴뻟폐ퟮ훕듻뿮좨,헢붫늻늿탔뗄쟣쿲쯹퓚ꋜꆣ샻폚뛔믵뇒릩펦솿뗄뿘훆,펰쿬퇫탐쪵쿖컈뚨컯볛쮮죽ꆢퟜ뷡욽뗄쒿뇪ꆣퟛ짏뿉볻,퓚쿖폐뗄닆헾믵뇒헾닟럇뛔돆뗄훆뛈떫Begg1D뗈뺭볃톧볒퓸뛔듋폐늻춬뗄뾴램듮엤쿂,룷맺닆헾헾닟뇘탫떣뢺웰욽뺭볃뛌웚늨(Beggetal,1999),쯻죏캪,평폚쒿잰얷풪쟸쓚늿좱뚯,컈뚨뺭볃뗄훘죎ꆣ떫폫듋춬쪱,쎻폐풼쫸뗄닆헾랦ퟮ훕듻뿮죋,헢튲뻍쳡릩쇋뺭믵솪쏋쓚닆헾떱뻖볤삩헅헾닟믡룸얷쏋헻쳥듸살퇏훘뗄뢺쏦틧돶킧펦뛸벤쿠뮥펰쿬뗄쇭튻룶쟾뗀ꆣ뛔폚얷쏋쓚늿뗄틸탐튵뛸' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
ꆤ3ꆡ4ꆤ짌튵퇐뺿2005/19퇔,ꆶ틸탐튵뗚뛾횸떼쳵샽ꆷ뛔웤닺짺쇋벫웤훘튪뗄뷰죚럧쿕뗄뿉쓜탔튲듳듳퓶볓,헢뇘좻튪쟳얷훞훐퇫펰쿬,쯼틽죫쇋ꆰ떥튻ힼ죫ꆱ(singlepassport)뗄룅쓮틸탐뻟폐ퟮ훕듻뿮좨,쓜벰쪱뮯뷢뿉쓜돶쿖뗄뷰죚럧늢좷죏쇋ꆰ쒸맺맜쾽풭퓲ꆱꆣ벴퓚쒸맺뗃떽좷죏뫍엺쿕,듓뛸놣횤뷰죚쾵춳뗄컈뚨탔ꆣ떱좻,뗀뗂럧쿕컊ힼ뗄틸탐뚼뿉틔ퟔ평뗘퓚얷솪쏋룷맺쳡릩룷훖틸탐럾쳢쫇늻뿉뇜쏢뗄,떫쿠뇈뷏폚뷰죚캣믺뗄톸쯙삩즢뛸컱ꆣ쯦ퟅ틸탐튵뗄랢햹,볦늢쟷쫆풽살풽쏷쿔,얷훞퇔튲늻뇘맽폚떣탄ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,얷훞퇫탐뇘탫뛔틸탐듳늿럖튵컱붫퓚놾췁췢뷸탐,뛸볠맜릦쓜퓲놻럖틸탐쾵춳뷸탐룉풤,헢뛔폚톸쯙컈뚨뷰죚쫐뎡닎폫헟엤룸틸탐쒸맺뗄볠맜떱뻖ꆣ좱랦튻룶좫얷쏋뗄ퟮ훕듻탅탄,늢퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏뿋럾쫐뎡쪧쇩,샻폃얷훞퇫탐뿮죋,죧맻틸탐뺭펪맜샭늻짆떼훂쇷뚯탔늻ퟣ믲헟놻뗄좨췾,뗷뚯룷랽쏦풴,뮯뷢럧쿕,뚼뻟폐훁맘훘웈웆닺뗄뮰,ퟮ훕뮹탨튪평놾맺뗄닆헾떱뻖뷸탐뻈튪뗄틢틥ꆣ훺ꆣ뛸뛔쿝죫삧뺳뗄틸탐쫇럱뻈훺뻍늻뷶쫇튻룶뺭볃컊쳢,뛸쟒뮹쫇튻룶헾훎컊쳢쇋ꆣ힢쫍:춨맽쿂쏦뗄낸샽뿉틔쟥돾뗘쮵쏷짏쫶맛뗣:쒳틸ꋙꆡ돂퇇컂,쇖뚫몣1얷풪탸싛ꆪ얷풪믹뒡ꆢ퓋ퟷ폫킧탐퓚얷훞A맺돉솢,떫쯼훷튪뗄튵컱믮뚯좴퓚B맺,펦럖컶\[M\1]놱뺩:훐맺뷰죚돶냦짧,2001:1071볙뚨쒿잰틸탐듦퓚튻뚨뗄컊쳢ꆣ쓇쎴,틸탐볠맜헟튲ꋚꆡ듷뇾좻1얷훞릲춬쳥쳵풼벯\[M\1]짏몣:뢴떩듳톧뻍쫇A맺뗄닆헾떱뻖쫇럱뛔룃틸탐뷸탐뻈훺쓘?죧돶냦짧,1992:3881맻A맺돐떣뻈훺돉놾,쿔좻쫜틦맺쫇B맺ꆣ헢뻍탨ꋛꆡHaraldUhligꆰ,OneMoney,ButManyFiscalPoliciesin튪A맺뫍B맺뗄닆헾떱뻖듯돉쒳훖킭틩ꆣ퓚튻룶믵Europe:Whataretheconsequences?ꆱApr12002,ISSN뇒솪쏋쓚,평폚룷맺헾뢮볤돖폐뇋듋햮좯,첸에뗄뚯0924-78151믺뻍믡룼볓잿쇒ꆣ뛸퓚쒿잰훆뛈ힴ뿶쿂,릫훚뛔틸탐ꋜꆡ쇵뫩1벯쳥탐뚯폫뺭볃벨킧ꆪꆪꆪ싼즪뛻1냂뛻즭쳥쾵뗄붡좫탔믡닺짺늻솼뗄풤웚ꆣ볠맜뗄럖즢뮯,튻뺭볃쮼쿫움쫶\[J\1]떱듺뺭볃퇐뺿,2002,(7):431맺뗄럧쿕뫜뿉쓜퇝뇤돉쾵춳럧쿕ꆣ헢놳뫳틾몬뗄죔쫇ꋝꆡ돂퇇컂,쇖뚫몣1얷풪탸싛ꆪ얷풪믹뒡ꆢ퓋ퟷ폫킧닆헾퓰죎뗄컊쳢ꆣ죧맻돶쿖틸탐튵캣믺뛸폖쎻폐튻룶펦럖컶\[M\1]놱뺩:훐맺뷰죚돶냦짧,2001:941닆헾떱뻖퓚뷢뻶헢튻컊쳢훐돐떣웰쿠펦뗄퓰죎,쓇쎴,듮뇣뎵컊쳢뮻쇋룶쏦뿗폖돶쿖쇋ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗:평듋뿉볻,ퟮ뫳듻뿮좨맩쫴늻쏷좷,늻샻폚럀랶\[1\]ꆡ돂퇇컂1얷풪탸싛-얷풪믹뒡ꆢ퓋ퟷ폫킧펦럖컶뫍뮯뷢쾵춳탔뷰죚럧쿕,뷼쓪살랢짺뗄쫀뷧탔뗄뷰죚\[M\1]놱뺩:훐맺뷰죚돶냦짧,20011캣믺튲캪얷풪쟸룷맺쳡릩쇋짮뿌뗄뷌통ꆣ샽죧랢짺퓚\[2\]ꆡ죻뛻캬쮹쳘뛻ꆤCꆤW났럒룱1얷훞믵뇒폫닆헾퇇훞ꆢ뛭싞쮹뫍삭뚡쏀훞뗄틸탐튵캣믺,럧쿕뫍캣믺헾닟\[M\1]놱뺩:훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧,20021삩즢뗄쯙뛈쫇뫜뿬뗄ꆣ쒿잰얷풪쟸룷돉풱맺퓚쎳틗ꆢ\[3\]ꆡ듷뇾좻1얷훞릲춬쳥쳵풼벯\[M\1]짏몣:뢴떩듳뷰죚뗈랽쏦듦퓚맣랺짮죫뗄틀듦맘쾵,뻖늿뗄캣믺뻍톧돶냦짧,19921뿉쓜틽웰웕뇩뗄탄샯뿖믅,퓬돉쾵춳탔럧쿕ꆣ뛸헢튲\[4\]ꆡHaraldUhlig1ꆰOneMoney,ButManyFiscalPolicies헽쫇듙쪹얷훞퇫탐돤떱ퟮ훕듻뿮죋뗄ퟮ훷튪틲쯘inEurope:Whataretheconsequence?ꆱ\[J\](GoodhartHuang,1999)ꆣ떱좻,퇫탐돶쏦뻈훺튲뿉쓜1discussionpaper1April,20021틽랢튻뚨돌뛈뗄뗀뗂럧쿕컊쳢,떫뗀뗂럧쿕늻맽쫇럧\[5\]ꆡ쇵뫩1벯쳥탐뚯폫뺭볃벨킧ꆪꆪꆪ싼즪뛻1냂뛻쿕삩즢뗄뢱닺욷(췵탅,1999)ꆣ죧맻퇫탐늻떣탄럧즭뺭볃쮼쿫움쫶\[J\1]떱듺뺭볃퇐뺿,2002,(7)1쿕삩즢,뻍늻믡냧퇝ퟮ훕듻뿮죋뗄뷇즫,튲뻍늻죝틗\[6\]ꆡBegg,D1,C1Wyplosz,P1DeGrauwe,F1Giavazziand틽랢뗀뗂럧쿕컊쳢ꆣ헢튲쫇캪쪲쎴듳뛠쫽훐퇫틸탐뚼H1Uhlig,ꆰTheECB:SafeatAnySpeed?ꆱ1\[R\]뻟폐ퟮ훕듻뿮좨뗄풭틲ꆣ1MonitoringtheEuropeanCentralBank-MECB1re2얷풪쟸틸탐튵뗄뺭펪뮷뺳랢짺쇋뫜듳뗄뇤뮯,떫port,CEPR,19991훁뷱늢쎻폐돶쿖쾵춳탔뗄뷰죚럧쿕ꆣ틸탐튵뗄랢햹샺\[7\]ꆡ췵탅1얷풪쟸틸탐튵뗄벱뻧뇤뮯뛔뷰죚볠맜뗄쪷뇭쏷,퓚뷰죚캣믺놬랢쪱믲헟돶쿖틸탐볠맜쪧쇩횮쳴햽\[J\1]맺볊뺭볃움싛11999,(9-10)1뫳,틸탐볠맜쳥쾵붫쯦횮뗷헻,틲뛸퓚쒿잰뗄ힴ뿶\[8\]ꆡGiavazzi,Francesco1ꆰWillEUBanksFollowtheU1S1쿂,뺡맜듦퓚ퟅ훖훖잱퓚뗄컊쳢,떫얷쏋뛔룄뇤뷰죚Model?ꆱ\[R\1]AsianWallStreetJournal,April,19991럖즢볠맜뗄쿖ힴ늢쎻폐뷴웈룐ꆣ쇭췢,뷰죚볠맜좨쫇\[9\]ꆡBegg,D1,C1Wyplosz,P1DeGrauwe,F1Giavazziand튻룶훷좨맺볒훘튪뗄뺭볃좨샻,룷룶돉풱맺늻믡쟡틗H1Uhlig,ꆰTheECB:SafeatAnySpeed?ꆱ\[R\]럅웺ꆣ틲듋,쒿잰얷쏋샭쫂믡쎻폐ퟣ릻뗄뚯믺튻훂춬1MonitoringtheEuropeanCentralBank-MECB1re2틢붫뷰죚볠맜좨짏붻얷훞훐퇫틸탐ꆣ뷼웚럖즢볠맜뗄port,CEPR,19991룱뻖늻믡폐첫듳뗄뇤뮯ꆣ떫캪쇋쫊펦틸탐튵탂탎쫆뗄\[10\]Goodhar1tCharlesA1EandHaizhouHuangꆰ,Amodel뇤뮯,쎿튻룶돉풱맺뚼펦룃얬솦춳튻볠맜뇪ힼ,퓚탅ofthelenderoflastresortꆱ\[R\1]IMFWorkingPaper,쾢붻쇷랽쏦틔벰훘듳뗄볠맜컊쳢짏튪볓잿헾닟킭뗷ꆣ19991쯦ퟅ얷풪쟸뷰죚쫐뎡튻쳥뮯뗄볓짮,놬랢쾵춳탔(퓰죎뇠벭:헅ꆡ쪵)' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
