全球视野 本土智慧
策略研究 Page 1
策略快评
海外市场 美联储议息会议快评
美联储会议继续维持低利率 经济表述略显乐观
分析师： 崔 嵘
事项：
1 月 26-27 日美联储召开了为期两天的货币政策会议并发表会后声明。
评论：
结论：美联储重申在“较长时间内”维持低利率以支持温和的经济复苏，符合市场预期。与 12 月份相比，除了对
经济略显乐观的表述（变化一）和明确定期拍卖工具（TAF）的拍卖计划（变化二）之外，声明基调未做太多修改，
不过，FOMC 委员中有一位投反对票（变化三），他的看法并不是要立即启动加息，而是不赞同轻率地承诺在“较
长时间内”维持低利率。预计美元汇率在避险情绪和加息预期的共同推动下将维持震荡向上格局，趋势的确立
还需未来 2 个月失业率数据下滑支持以及伯南克 2 月份 2010 年货币政策演讲后，时点预计最早在明年 2 月份。
美联储维持现行低利率区间 %，并重申在“较长时间内”维持低利率，符合市场预期
1 月 26-27 日美联储召开为期两天的货币政策会议，9 票对 1 票通过维持现行低利率区间 0%%，并重申在“相
当长时间内”维持低利率；维持对公司债和MBS 购买计划：1750 亿美元公司债和 万亿美元MBS 的购买期限至 2010
年 3 月。3000 亿美元国债购买计划已于 2009 年 10 月底结束。
会后声明基调未改，经济表述略显乐观，但一委员投反对票
与 12 月份会议声明对比，美联储本次会后声明措辞基调未改，细微变化有三处：
对于经济现状的表述：1 月份经济前景的评估较 12 月份略显乐观，“经济活动继续增强，就业市场的恶化减轻…；
设备和软件支出开始增长，但建筑投资仍在萎缩…”。（变化一）
美国宏观经济温和复苏再次得到确认，房地产市场和私人投资的增长 9 月份首次得到认可。房地产市场出现改善迹
象，金融市场状况支持经济复苏。不确定性：居民消费支出正温和增长，但因失业率、收入增长、房市财富和债务等不
利因素，整体消费需求仍显疲弱。
对于通胀的表述：与 12 月份基本一致。
美联储在 9 月的声明中删除了 8 月份对于通胀上升表示的担忧，之后的声明中均维持对于通胀的如下看法：认为未
来一段时间通胀形势处于可控区间，原因是产能利用率较低会降低成本压力，加之长期通胀预期平稳（产能利用率、通
胀现况和通胀预期三要素）。
对于货币政策的表述：重申在“较长时间内”维持低利率，再次明确短期流动性工具截止 2010 年 2 月 1 日。
考虑到金融市场环境的持续改善，美联储多数的特殊流动性工具（如：商业票据融资工具、资产支持商业票据货币
市场共同基金流动性工具、一级交易商信贷工具和定期证券借贷工具）将在 2 月 1 日到期；同各国央行的临时流动性互
换也将于 2 月 1 日前结束。明确定期拍卖工具（TAF）的拍卖计划（变化二）：2 月 8 日 500 亿美元 28 天期信贷和最后 3
2010 年 01 月 28 日
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月 8 日 250 亿美元 28 天信贷。目标对象为新发行商业抵押贷款支持债券提供支持之贷款的资产支持证券贷款工具
(TABSLF)的预定到期时间仍为 2010 年 6 月 30 日，目标对象为所有其他类型担保品提供支持之贷款的资产支持证券贷
款工具（MBS）则将在 2010 年 3 月 31 日到期。美联储表示，若有必要将对这些计划作出修改，以支持金融稳定性和经
济增长。
委员意见近一年来首次出现分歧。（变化三）
有一位委员反对在“较长时间内”继续维持低利率，表达了尽快“退出”政策的呼声。他担心继续采取之前的经济
刺激计划可能招致通胀风险，但他的看法并不是要立即启动加息，而是不赞同承诺轻率得在“较长时间内”维持低利率。
加息预期以及欧日经济基本面逊于美国决定未来美元仍将震荡上行
虽然 12 月份美国就业和零售数据低于市场预期，但我们认为，主导本轮美元反转的加息预期因素并未消除，因而不
改变美元向上趋势。
依据一：美联储加息预期随着经济基本面的好转将逐步加强。我们认为，在经济复苏根基进一步巩固、失业率趋势
性下降的背景下，为控制长期通胀压力以及新资产泡沫的形成，美联储加息宜早不宜迟，时点在 2010 年 6 月或 8 月份
概率较大；
依据二：现阶段欧日经济复苏逊于美国：欧元区 09Q3 走出衰退，环比上升 %，同比下降 4%，Q3 GDP 的增长
暗示复苏基础并不广泛，复苏也主要集中在欧元区工业上，建筑业和商业服务业的产出下降，农业和消费者服务业产出
并未对增长有明显贡献；欧元区 16 国 09 年 11 月失业率从 10 月的 %升至 10%，创 1998 年 8 月以来最高水平；欧
洲主权债务评级不确定性仍存（穆迪公司 6 日表示，冰岛拒绝偿还英荷 50 亿美元债务将拖累其评级）；英国继续采取量
化宽松政策，维持资产购买计划规模在 2000 亿英镑不变。
日本经济复苏进程更不及欧美，走出通缩尚需时日。此外，日本新财长菅直人上任也对日元走势不利，他的财政立
场较其前任激进（反对强势日元），即其可能倾向于加大流动性注入，这对日元汇率构成压力。
以上两点中，我们认为加息预期仍是美元汇率走势的主导因素。美元走强趋势的确立还需未来 2 个月失业率数据下
滑支持以及伯南克 2 月份对国会发表关于 2010 年货币政策演讲后，时点预计最早在 2010 年 2 月份。
我们维持观点：经济内生动力增强 向上趋势至少可持续至今年上半年
最新数据再次证实我们对美国经济的乐观看法，经济内生动力增强，二次探底的概率较小：1）实际 PCE 的复苏至
少可持续至 2010 年上半年；2）失业率可能于 2009Q4-2010Q1 见顶，其中 2009Q4 趋势性见顶概率更大；3）11 月份
CPI 同比首次转正，目前处通胀周期初期；4）美联储启动紧缩政策时点预计在 2010 年 6 月或 8 月概率更大；5）美元
汇率维持震荡向上格局，趋势的确立时点预计最早在今年 2 月份。我们对美国经济的看法略显乐观，主要依据是客观存
在的实际购买意愿以及部分优惠政策的延期，这一点在 09 年 Q4 的各项销售数据中得到证实。
我们维持观点：实际消费需求已经承接政府加杠杆化对经济复苏的拉动支撑，预计在房地产市场、就业和实际平均
时薪改善的背景下 Q1 美国实际 PCE 将继续缓步回升，这一趋势至少可持续到 2010 年上半年。
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附录：
表：美联储议息会后声明对比
1 月 26-27 日会议声明 12 月 15-16 日会议声明 表述变化
对经济活动表述：
1 月份的表述略显乐观。
“经济活动继续增强，就业市
场的恶化减轻…；
设备和软件支出开始增长，但
建筑投资仍在萎缩…”
对通胀的表述：
表述基本一致。
由“dampen cost pressures”
更 换 为 “ restrain cost
pressures”。
对货币政策的表述：
重申在“相当长时间内”维持现
行利率，再次明确短期流动性
工具运用将于 2010 年 2 月 1
日到期；明确定期拍卖工具
（TAF）的拍卖计划。
委员投票：
仅一位委员-堪萨斯州联储主席
Thomas M. Hoenig 投反对票，
认为
Information received since the Federal Open Market
Committee met in December suggests that economic
activity has continued to strengthen and that the
deterioration in the labor market is abating. Household
spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains
constrained by a weak labor market, modest income
growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business
spending on equipment and software appears to be
picking up, but investment in structures is still contracting
and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Firms
have brought inventory stocks into better alignment with
sales. While bank lending continues to contract, financial
market conditions remain supportive of economic growth.
Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be
moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual
return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of
price stability.
With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost
pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations
stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the
federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to
anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of
resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable
inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally
low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended
period. To provide support to mortgage lending and
housing markets and to improve overall conditions in
private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the
process of purchasing $ trillion of agency
mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of
agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in
markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of
these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions
will be executed by the end of the first quarter. The
Committee will continue to evaluate its purchases of
securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and
conditions in financial markets.
In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the
Federal Reserve will be closing the Asset-Backed
Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity
Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the
Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities
Lending Facility on February 1, as previously announced.
In addition, the temporary liquidity swap arrangements
between the Federal Reserve and other central banks will
expire on February 1. The Federal Reserve is in the
process of winding down its Term Auction Facility: $50
billion in 28-day credit will be offered on February 8 and
$25 billion in 28-day credit will be offered at the final
auction on March 8. The anticipated expiration dates for
the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain set
at June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial
mortgage-backed securities and March 31 for loans
backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal
Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to
support financial stability and economic growth.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S.
Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman;
James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra
Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin
M. Warsh. Voting against the policy action was Thomas M.
Information received since the Federal Open Market
Committee met in November suggests that economic
activity has continued to pick up and that the
deterioration in the labor market is abating. The housing
sector has shown some signs of improvement over
recent months. Household spending appears to be
expanding at a moderate rate, though it remains
constrained by a weak labor market, modest income
growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.
Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment,
though at a slower pace, and remain reluctant to add to
payrolls; they continue to make progress in bringing
inventory stocks into better alignment with sales.
Financial market conditions have become more
supportive of economic growth. Although economic
activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee
anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial
markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus,
and market forces will contribute to a strengthening of
economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of
resource utilization in a context of price stability.
With substantial resource slack likely to continue to
dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation
expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation
will remain subdued for some time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the
federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to
anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates
of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and
stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant
exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an
extended period. To provide support to mortgage
lending and housing markets and to improve overall
conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve
is in the process of purchasing $ trillion of agency
mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of
agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in
markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of
these purchases, and it anticipates that these
transactions will be executed by the end of the first
quarter of 2010. The Committee will continue to evaluate
the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of
securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and
conditions in financial markets.
In light of ongoing improvements in the functioning of
financial markets, the Committee and the Board of
Governors anticipate that most of the Federal Reserve’s
special liquidity facilities will expire on February 1, 2010,
consistent with the Federal Reserve’s announcement of
June 25, 2009. These facilities include the Asset-Backed
Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity
Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the
Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities
Lending Facility. The Federal Reserve will also be
working with its central bank counterparties to close its
temporary liquidity swap arrangements by February 1.
The Federal Reserve expects that amounts provided
under the Term Auction Facility will continue to be scaled
back in early 2010. The anticipated expiration dates for
the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain
set at June 30, 2010, for loans backed by new-issue
commercial mortgage-backed securities and March 31,
全球视野 本土智慧
Page 4
Hoenig, who believed that economic and financial
conditions had changed sufficiently that the expectation of
exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an
extended period was no longer warranted.
2010, for loans backed by all other types of collateral.
The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if
necessary to support financial stability and economic
growth.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S.
Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman;
Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn;
Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo;
Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
资料来源：国信证券经济研究所 注：蓝色字体表示与前月变化之处。
全球视野 本土智慧
Page 5
国信证券投资评级
类别 级别 定义
推荐 预计 6 个月内，股价表现优于市场指数 20%以上
谨慎推荐 预计 6 个月内，股价表现优于市场指数 10%-20%之间
中性 预计 6 个月内，股价表现介于市场指数±10%之间
股票
投资评级
回避 预计 6 个月内，股价表现弱于市场指数 10%以上
推荐 预计 6 个月内，行业指数表现优于市场指数 10%以上
谨慎推荐 预计 6 个月内，行业指数表现优于市场指数 5%-10％之间
中性 预计 6 个月内，行业指数表现介于市场指数±5%之间
行业
投资评级
回避 预计 6 个月内，行业指数表现弱于市场指数 5%以上
分析师承诺：
作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于本人的职业理解，通
过合理判断并得出结论，力求客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意、影响，
特此声明。
