成功的项目管理
----- 企业核心应用课程
Presented by Canada Cyberway Group
Eric Yujade Cheung 张玉珏
E-mail:Eric@
WHO WE ARE？
先让我们再次来相互认识！
Canada Cyberway united
52 Spire Hillway North york,
Ontario Canada
Tel:1-416-4967889
Fax:1-416-4960367
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广州天河区体育东路148号南方证券大厦
TEL：+86-20-38879508
FAX：+86-20-38879509
Who is our Global United?
PM Tools
Training Project 第一步
Objective 目 的
Rules 规 则
Behavior 态 度
Logistics后勤服务
Schedule — 9:00 AM until 17:00PM
时间— 9：00AM至17：00PM
Lunch… 午餐 12:00—13:30
Breaks… 休息 10 min/ 2 times
Cell phones off or on vibrate
手机置于关闭或震动状态
Ask questions at any time
请随时提问
Planned Agenda日程计划
Day One 第一天
Core concepts
核心概念
Project scope Objective Planning
项目目标范围说明
Work breakdown structure
工作分解结构
Cost Estimating&Budget
成本估算与预算
Day Two第二天
Work sequencing
工作排序
Process development
进度表创建
Project success criteria
成功标尺
Risk management风险管理
Performance measurement
业绩衡量
Change control 变化控制
Course Learning Objectives
课程学习目的
Upon completion you will be able to:
学完本课程后你将能够做到:
Write a Project Scope Objective Document (PSOD)
写一个项目范围说明文件
Construct work breakdown structure
建立工作分解结构
Develop accurate estimate to budget 做出精确的估算
Sequence project activities 为项目作业排序
Calculate the critical path 计算关键路径
Estimate cost and schedule contingencies
估算成本和时间风险
Develop project success metrics 建立项目成功标尺
Measure project performance 评估项目业绩
What challenges have you encountered managing your projects?
你在管理项目中曾面对
怎样的挑战？
PM Culture Components
项目管理文化成分
Management
of the Project
Portfolio
高阶层项目的管理
Management
of the Organizational
Environment
组织环境的管理
Management
of the Individual Projects
单个项目的管理
C O R E C O N C E P T S
核心概念
Topics covered in this module:
本章节的内容提要
Definitions of project, project management, and stakeholder 项目定义、管理和利害干系人
Triple Constraint 三重限制
Product scope and project scope
产品范围和项目范围
Project life cycles 项目生命周期
Role of the project manager 项目经理的角色
What Is a Project?
什么是项目？
项目就是以一套独特而相互联系的任务为前提,有明确的开始与结束,充分地利用资源,为实现一个特定的目标所做的努力!
Projects vs. Business Processes
项目与运作流程的系数
项目
经营流程
以前未完成过项目
新开发的流程
可利用的流程模板
重复的主要用户化
重复的次要用户化
重复的无用户化
效率提高
风险提高
以下交付件流程
以下交付件流程
以下交付件流程
以下交付件流程
以下交付件流程
以下交付件流程
以下交付件流程
以下交付件流程
以下交付件流程
What Is Project Management?
什么是项目管理？
The application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques…
用项目管理的九大知识体系方法论
In order to meet or exceed stakeholder requirements from a project.
R投入最小化、T投入最小化、Q值最大化
达到或超越核心利益干系人对项目的要求
Project Stakeholders
项目利害干系人
Individuals and organizations who are actively involved in the project.
积极参与项目的组织和个人
Individuals and organizations whose interests may be affected by the project.
其利益可能会受项目影响的组织和个人
Who Are Your Stakeholders?
谁是你的利害干系人？
Triple Constraint + One
三重限制+1
Core Stakeholder
核心利益 干系人
Sources
Constraints
资源限制
Quality&Quantity Constraints
质量&数量的限制
Time Constraints
时间限制
Project Life Cycle
项 目 生 命 周 期
STARTUP
PLANNING
IMPLEMENT
CONTROL
RELEASE
Having 5 Step project life cycle is more important than how you define the phases!对一个项目的生命周期达成共识比怎样去定义各阶段更重要！
●
●
●
●
投入力量
识别需求
需求建议书
提出解
决方案
合同
执行项目
项目目标
结束项目
时间
项目生命周期
Sucessed Cancellation
成功的取消项目
Boundless optimism or enthusiasm.
盲目的乐观和热情.
Ego or politics. 个人主义或政见
Desire to recoup investment.
补偿投资的愿望
Lack of success criteria. 缺乏成功的标准
Lack of clear decision points.
缺乏清晰的决策点
Seeing motion as progress. 把运作当作进展
All Projects Are Two!
所有的项目都包含两种
Type 1 = Analyze 第一种=分析型
Identify and describe the problem 定义和描述问题
Analyze options and alternatives 分析多个可能方案
Recommend one or more 推荐其一或更多
May be first step of life cycle or separate, stand-alone project 可以在生命周期的第一段也可为分离的独立项目
Type 2 = Develop 第二种=实施型
Define, design, and produce the recommended alternative(s) 定义，设计，生产被推荐的方案
Old Beliefs vs. New Beliefs
旧信仰和新信仰的比较
Acme电子产品
公司总裁
人力资源部副总裁
财务部副总裁
市场部副
总裁
工程部副
总裁
制造部副总裁
供应部副总裁
系统工程经理
电子工程经理
软件工程经理
机械工程经理
技术文件记录经理
采购部经理
收货及检验部经理
客户服务部经理
内销部经理
进出口部经理
制造部经理
装配部经理
检测部经理
生产计划部经理
装运部经理
职能型组织结构
Ajax快速运输
项目公司总裁
市场部副总裁
人力资源部副总裁
财务部副总裁
法律部项目经理
项目A
项目经理
项目B
项目经理
制造部
经理
工程部经理
供应部
经理
承包商
工程部
经理
顾问
制造部
经理
供应经理
制造
组装
检测
系统
硬件
软件
子承包商X
子承包商Y
设备安装
培训
系统
电报
机械
软件
设计评审
培训
组装
检测
项目型组织结构
矩阵型组织结构
项目A团队
项目B团队
项目C团队
Shar
Kati
Kati
Jim
Jeff
Joe
Julie
Mag
Ros
Stev
Ros
项目管理经理
Jack
Beth
Jack
专业化计算机系统公司总裁
市场部副总裁
财力部副总裁
人力资源部副总裁
项目副总裁
工程部副总裁
制造部副总裁
后勤部副总裁
项目A客户
项目B项目经理
项目A项目经理
项目C项目经理
项目B客户
项目C客户
系统工程经理
电子工程经理
软件工程经理
机械工程经理
技术文件记录经理
Cath
Jen
Catt
Paul
检测部经理
生产计划部经理
装配部经理
Den
Jess
Chri
Chri
安装部经理
培训部经理
Tyle
Gerr
Wen
Han
A Project Manager
Must Be Able to:
一个项目经理必须能做到：
Understand the technology of the project product. 了解项目产品的技术.
Understand the tools available to manage the project.
了解项目管理中可以应用的工具
Relate to external factors. 联系外部因素
Recognize problems before they become too large. 在问题还没有变大前就意识到
Comfortably manage those above and below them. 轻松应对上上下下的关系
Find multiple solutions for problems — and pick the most appropriate one.
找到解决问题的多种方法并选择其中最合适的.
Pinpoint sources for expert help — and ask for it. 指出专家协助的来源，并求助.
Make decisions. 做出决定
Make unpopular decisions; take unpleasant actions.
做出不受欢迎的决定；采取不愉快的行动.
Discard irrelevance. 摒弃不相关的.
5 STEP KEY P L A N N I N G
P R O C E S S E S
项目计划五大过程
Topics covered in this module:
本章节的内容提要：
Key planning processes
关键计划流程
Tips and tricks for better planning
做一个好计划的窍门
Key PM Planning Process
关 键 计 划 流 程
Scope Objective planning
范围目标计划
WBS Team
Working
团队工作分解
WORK Sequencing
工作排序
Estimating&
Budget
人力成本,项目预算
Process Development
最终的甘特图
Planning: Tips & Tricks
计划：技巧与窍门
Do it with the team working. 与整个团队一起做计划.
Allow enough time. 准备充分的时间
An experienced facilitator can help if your project:
如果你的项目是以下的情况，需要有项目经验的人来帮忙：
Is larger or more complex than usual.
比较大或较复杂的项目.
Is highly visible or very important.
很显著或很重要的..
Planning is not a one time event. 计划是非一次性活动
S C O P E P L A N N I N G
范围计划
Topics covered in this module:
本章节的内容提要：
P O S:Project Objective Statement
项目目标的文件
M D: Major Deliverable 主要交付件
F M: 灵活性矩阵
R S: Risk Scope边界
Constraints 限制
Assumptions 假设
Exclusions 项目范围之外的事项
Key Planning Processes
关键计划流程
Scope Planning
范围计划
Scope Definition
范围定义
Activity Sequencing
作业排序
Cost & Effort Estimating
成本和工作量估算
Schedule Development工期表创建
Project Scope Statement
项目范围说明
Project justification 项目的理由
Product description 产品描述
Project deliverables 项目完成件
Constraints 限制
Assumptions 假设
Exclusions 项目范围之外的事项
Project Justification …
项目的理由
… documents the business need that the project was undertaken to address:
把正在进行的项目的商业目的作文档记录
Answers the question — why are we doing this project?
回答问题—我们为什么做这个项目？
Should clearly communicate the implications of not doing the project.
应该很清楚地沟通不做这个项目的影响.
Justification — Tips & Tricks
理由—技巧
If you’re not sure of the justification, try filling in the blanks:
如果你不能确定理由，尝试填写下面的空格：
“The current situation is 目前的情形是_________
and as a result 导致结果是________”
A justification that starts “we need to …” usually ends up describing the solution and not the problem
理由以“我们需要做…”来开始，总是以描述问题的解决方案而 不是描述问题本身来结束.
Tips & Tricks (cont’d)
技巧（续）
Document the problem — an opportunity for you is created from someone else’s problem.
记录问题，从别人的问题中得到机会。
It may take several tries to get the words “right.”
也许需要多次尝试才会得到“正确”的说法.
Product Description …
产品描述
… describes how we will “solve” the problem that gave rise to the project:
描述我们将怎样解决引起项目的问题：
Answers the question — what will we deliver?
回答问题-----我们将产出什么？
Should be described at a summary level, not in terms of specific features and functions.
应该概要描述而不是描述特定的特征和功能.
Product Description —
Tips & Tricks 产品描述-技巧
If the product won’t help solve the problem, you have either the wrong problem or the wrong solution.
如果产品不能有助你解决问题，那么你拥有的不是错误的问题就是错误的解决方案.
If you’re not sure what the product is, you probably have a Type 1 project — your only product is a recommendation.
如果你不能确定你的产品是什么，那么你很可能拥有第一类型的项目----你唯一的产品只是一个建议.
Project Deliverables …
项目完成件
… a list of the summary level sub-products whose full and satisfactory delivery marks completion of the project or phase:
一个标志着子产品的项目或阶段的完成的汇总目录：
Answers the question — how will we know when the project is done?
回答问题----我们怎样知道项目什么时候做完呢？
Each deliverable must be a measurable, tangible, verifiable outcome or result.
每一个完成件都应该是可测量的，切合实际的，可验证的结果。
The list of deliverables should help us understand the product. 所有完成件的清单应该有助我们了解产品。
Deliverables — Tips & Tricks
完成件-技巧
Project deliverables must be complete by the end of the project — benefits or secondary impacts are success criteria, not deliverables.
项目完成件必须在项目结束时完成-----利益或其他影响是成功的标准，而不是完成件。
Identify the components of the final product — interim work such as a design document is not shown here.
确定最终产品的组成----中期的工作，比如设计的文档并没有在这里呈现。
For single phase and Type 1 projects, the deliverables will be the components of the phase-end report.
对于某一个阶段和第一类型项目，完成件将是阶段末报告里的成分。
Boundaries …界限…
Constraints — factors that will limit the project team’s options.
限制-----一些会限制项目团队选择的因素。
Assumptions — factors that, for planning purposes, will be taken to be true, real, or certain.
假设----在做计划编制时，会有一些因素被认为是真实的或 确定的。
Exclusions — things the customer might reasonably expect that we won’t be providing.
例外----是一些客户可以合理地认为我们不会提供的东西。
Exercise: Scope Planning
练习：范围计划
1. Individually (15-20 minutes): 单独做
Pick a work project (Type 1 or Type 2) to practice on. A project that hasn’t started, or that is just getting underway is best.
选一个工作项目（类型1或类型2）做练习。最好是还没有开始的项目或刚起步的项目。
Develop a draft project scope statement for your project. 给你的项目起草一个项目范围说明。
You may wish to review the sample Project Scope Statements provided as attachments.
你可以参考附件中项目范围说明的样本。
Exercise (cont’d)
As a group: 小组做
Circulate your draft documents so that each group member gets to read each one.
传阅你们的项目草案，以便小组的每一个成员都可以看到。
Discuss each document individually and suggest improvements. It may be helpful to use the Project Scope Statement checklist to guide your discussions. 讨论每一个方案，并提出改进意见。可以用附件中的“项目范围说明检查表”来指导你的讨论。
As a group:
Pick one project scope statement to share with the rest of the class. 选取一个项目范围说明
Copy it onto a sheet of flip chart paper and select a presenter. 把它书写在大白纸上并推选呈述者
See attachments:看附件：
Project Scope Statement (template)
项目范围说明（模版）
Sample Project Scope Statements:
项目范围说明样本
Project A (good) 项目A（好的）
Project B (not so good) 项目B（不好的）
Scope Statement Checklist
范围说明检查表
S C O P E D E F I N I T I O N范围定义
Topics covered in this module:
本章节内容提要：
The purpose of scope definition
范围定义的目的
Developing a work breakdown structure for your project
给你的项目做一个工作分解结构
Key Planning Processes
关键计划流程
Scope Planning
范围计划
Scope Definition
范围定义
Activity Sequencing
作业排序
Cost & Effort Estimating
成本和工作量估算
Schedule Development
工期表创建
How can you maximize the probability that you’ve identified all the work?
怎样才能使你已经完成全部工作识别的可能性最大化？
Definition: Work
Breakdown Structure
定义：工作分解结构
WBS — a deliverable-oriented grouping of project elements which organizes and defines the total project scope.
WBS - 组织和定义整个项目范围的以完成件为目标的项目成份组。
The WBS includes management- oriented deliverables as well as product-oriented deliverables.
WBS包括管理导向的完成件和产品导向的完成件。
What Does a WBS Look Like? WBS形式是怎样的？
Software Release
软件发布
Project Management
项目管理
Software
软件
Documen-tation
文档记录
Project Plan
项目计划
Meetings
会议
Module 1
模型1
Module 2
模型2
Help File
帮助文件
Code Comments
编码注释
…
…
…
…
What Dose a WBS Look Like
一个WBS是怎么样的
…
…
…
New Products Release
新产品发布
Project Management
项目管理
Marketing Materials
做市场的资料
Training Program
培训计划
Project Plan
项目计划
Meetings
各个会议
Brochures
宣传手册
Print Ads
印制广告
Manual
培训手册
Classroom Materials
教室材料
…
WBS with Phases
…
…
…
Software Release
软件发布
Project Management
项目管理
Requiremt’s
Document
必要文件
Design Document
设计文件
Project Plan
项目计划
Meetings
各个会议
Software
软件
Training
培训
Software
软件
Training
培训
…
WBS — Tips & Tricks
WBS----技巧
Decompose as much as you can now; revisit detail at end of each phase.
尽可能现在分解，在每一阶段的结尾再次重访细节。
Use a mixture of “top down” and “bottom-up” approaches.
采用“从上到下”和“从下到上”的相混合的方法。
Characteristics of the lowest level:
最低层的特征：
One clear accomplishment 一个清晰的任务完成
One clear owner 一个清晰的责任人
Able to estimate effort and duration 能够估算努力和工期
Tips & Tricks (cont’d)
技巧（续）
Don’t — worry about sequence yet.
不要担心次序。
Don’t — worry about getting the words perfect; develop the structure first, edit it later.
不要担心字句完美；先做结构再编辑。
Don’t — let concerns about later planning steps (such as staffing) control your decisions.
不要担心以后的计划步骤（比如人员的配置）会左右你的决定。
Exercise: Developing a WBS
练习：创建一个WBS
1. Decompose the deliverables from your Project Scope Statement:(40 minutes):
从你的项目范围中分解完成件：
Work as a group. 小组一起做.
Work on one deliverable at a time.
一次分解一个完成件.
Use sticky-notes. 使用粘贴纸.
Document assumptions as you go.
边做边记录你的假设
2. Document your lessons learned (10 minutes):
将你的体验写到纸上：
About the project you were planning.
关于你正在计划的项目.
About the process of developing a WBS.
关于创建一个WBS的过程.
Beth
销售报告系统
Beth
问题界定
Jim
系统分析
Tyler
系统设计
Hannah
系统开发
Maggie
测试
Beth
实施
Beth
收集
数据
Jack
可行性
研究
Rose
准备
报告
Tyler
数据输入
和输出
Joe
处理数据与建数据库
Cathy
评估
Sharon
准备
报告
Gene
硬件
Greg
网络
Rose
准备
报告
Maggie
软件
Jim
会晤用户
Steve
研究现有系统
Jeff
明确用户需求
Jim
准备
报告
Joe
硬件
Gerri
网络
Jack
准备
报告
Hannah
软件
Jim
收集
数据
Beth
可行性
研究
Jack
准备
报告
Tyler
菜单
Tyler
数据输入屏幕
Steve
定期报告
Jeff
特殊问题
Maggie
定制软件
Hannah
包装软件
1
2
3
4
5
6
1级
2级
销售报告系统项目工作分析结构
S S
S
S
S
P
S
P S S
P
P
P
P
P
S S
P S
S P
S
S
S S S
系统设计
数据输入和输出
菜单
数据输入
定期报告
特殊问题
处理数据库
评估
准备报告
3
S
S
S S
S
P
P
P
P
P
系统分析
会晤用户
研究现有系统
明确用户要求
准备报告
2
S
S S
S
S S
P
P S
P S
P
S
问题界定
收集数据
可行性研究
准备报告
1
S
S
S
P S
销售报告系统
工作细目
WBS
销售报告系统项目责任矩阵
Beth
Jim
Jack
Rose
Steve
Jeff
Tyler
Cathy
Sharon
Hannah
Joe
Gerri
Maggie
Gene
Greg
注：P=主要责任； S=次要责任。
C O S T A N D E F F O R T
E S T I M A T I N G
成本和努力估算
Topics covered in this module:
本章节的内容提要：
Estimating vs. budgeting
估算与预算的比较
Different kinds and levels of estimates
各种不同种类和层次的估算
Three-point (range) estimating
三点估算
Key Planning Processes
关键计划流程
Scope Planning
范围计划
Scope Definition
范围定义
Activity Sequencing
作业排序
Cost & Effort Estimating
成本和工作量估算
Schedule Development
工期表创建
Estimating Drive Time
估算驾车时间
Estimates Should Be Ranges应该估算范围
Most likely 最可能估算值
Optimistic (low)
最乐观估算值(低)
Pessimistic(high)
最悲观估算值 (高)
Possible Outcomes
可能的结果
Probability of
Occurrence
发生的可能性
Different Levels of Estimates
不同层次的估算
Project level estimates — high level approximations used to guide funding decisions.
项目级别的估算----高层面的估算常用以引导资金投放的决定.
Activity level estimates — low level predictions used to manage the project.
活动级别的估算----低层面的预测常用以管理项目.
Examples?
Different Kinds of Estimates
不同种类的估算
Effort — labor units required to complete an assignment; usually hours of a person’s time.
工作量=完成一项任务要求的人力单位；通常以人小时来计算
Labor Cost — effort times rate.
人力成本 = 工作量 * 单位成本比率
Project Cost — labor cost + goods and services.
项目成本=人力成本 + 商品和服务成本
Converting Activity Estimates into Activity Budgets 把作业估算转换成作业预算
25
30
50
Most likely
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Possible Outcomes
可能产出
Probability of
Occurrence
出现概率
Budget =
Expected value =
(O + ML + P) / 3
预算= 期望值=（O+ML+P）/3
35
Estimating — Tips & Tricks
估算技巧
Identify most likely first, then optimistic, then pessimistic.
先确定最可能的，然后是乐观的，再是悲观的.
Using hours for effort and days for duration can help mitigate the tendency to confuse the two.
努力用小时计，工期用天数计，就可以减少两种类型的混淆.
Break it down to another level if you’re having trouble.
如果有困难出现，立即往下扩深一个层次.
Discuss and document assumptions as you go.
进行中讨论并记录假设.
Exercise: Project Estimates
练习：项目估算
Develop 3-point estimates of effort for each of the items at the lowest level of your WBS (30 minutes).
用你WBS最低层的每一项算出努力的三点估算.
Document your assumptions as you go.
尽可能地写出你的假设.
Calculate the expected value for each.
计算每一项的预期价值.
Ignore the column headed “variance.”
对于“不一致”的那一项可以忽略.
2. Sum the most likely values and the expected values for each item (10 minutes).
计算每一项的最可能值和期望值总和（10分钟）.
See attachment:
Cost or Effort
Estimating Worksheet
看附件：成本/工作量估算表
C O S T
C O N T I N G E N C I E S
应急成本
Topics covered in this module:
本章节的内容提要：
Summing cost and effort range estimates
将成本和工作量类的估算求和
Using contingencies to mitigate risk
用应急成本减轻风险
Bottom-up Construction
由下至上结构
Illustrative cost estimates
对成本估算加以说明
Summing cost ranges
成本区间累积
Calculate cost contingency
计算应急成本
Illustrative Cost Ranges
说明成本范围
Software Release
软件发布
Training Materials
培训材料
Software
软件
60, 80, 110
20, 50, 90
15, 20, 40
5, 10, 25
15, 20, 30
10, 20, 30
20, 30, 80
Summing Cost Ranges
成本区间累加
First, for each activity calculate:
首先，对每一项活动计算：
Expected value = (optimistic + most likely + pessimistic) / 3
预期值=（乐观+最可能+悲观）/3
Variance = ((pessimistic - optimistic) /5)2
变化值=（（悲观-乐观）/5)2
Then, for the project calculate:
然后，对项目计算
Expected value = sum of activity expected values
预期值 = 作业预期值的总和
Variance = sum of activity variances
变化=作业变化的总和
Standard deviation = square root of variance
标准差= 变化的平方根
See attachment:
Cost Estimating
Spreadsheet
看附件：成本估算插页
Calculate Cost Contingency
计算应急成本
16%
50% 84% 97%
Possible Project Outcomes
项目产出的可能
Probability
of
Occurrence
发生的可能性
Std. Dev.
260
230
282
Exercise: Cost Contingency
练习：意外成本
Calculate the standard deviation of your project estimate. (6-8 minutes)
计算你的项目估算的标准差.（6-8分钟）
Calculate the item variances.
计算项目变化值
Sum them for the project variance.
累加所有的项目变化值
The square root of the project variance is the project’s standard deviation.
项目变化值的平方根是项目的标准差。
2. Pick a budget for your project. Be prepared to justify it. (6-8 minutes)
为项目做预算，并呈述正当理由.
A C T I V I T Y
S E Q U E N C I N G
作业排序
Topics covered in this module:
本章节的内容提要：
Basic sequencing terminology
基本排序术语
How to sequence your project’s activities
怎样为你的项目作业排序
Key Planning Processes
Scope Planning
范围计划
Scope Definition
范围定义
Activity Sequencing
作业排序
Cost & Effort Estimating
成本和工作量估算
Schedule Development
工期表创建
Sequencing Concepts
排序概念
Items at the lowest level of the WBS are connected to create a “network logic diagram”
WBS最低层次的每一项相连接形成一个“网络逻辑图”
A
C
D
B
E
Start
Finish
Dependency 从属项
B is predecessor
B是原始项
E is successor
E是继承项
Activity
Milestone
里程碑
Sequencing-Tips & Tricks
排序技巧
Use only the lowest level items of the work breakdown structure.
只用工作分解结构的最低层次的各项.
Sequence closely related items first (create a subnet), then combine the subnets.
首先把最相关的项排好（建一个子网），然后再合并所有子网.
Don’t worry — yet — about resources, dates, or durations. 先不要担心资源、日期、或工期.
Exercise: Dependencies
练习：从属项
Create a network logic diagram, including start and finish milestones, for the activities identified in your WBS exercise (25 minutes).
为你在WBS练习中确认的活动建一个网络逻辑图，包括开始和结束的里程碑.（25分钟）
Assume unlimited resources. 假定无资源限制.
Try to define everything in terms of finish-to- start dependencies.
对从开始到结束的附属项做出详细说明.
Note lessons learned to share with the rest of the class (5 minutes).
记录本章节的学习经验与其他学员分享.
S C H E D U L E
D E V E L O P M E N T
创建时间表
Topics covered in this module:
本章节的内容提要：
Duration vs. elapsed time
工期与共用时间比较
Preliminary vs. final schedules
最初与最终的进度比较
Critical path calculations 关键路径计算
Dealing with resource constraints
处理资源限制
Schedule contingencies
计划突发事件
Key Planning Processes
Scope Planning
范围计划
Scope Definition
范围定义
Activity Sequencing
作业排序
Cost & Effort Estimating
成本和工作量估算
Schedule Development
工期表创建
Duration vs. Elapsed Time
周期与共用时间比较
Duration — the number of work periods required to complete an activity; does not include holidays or non-work periods.
工期----完成一个完整工作的工作时间，不包括假期或
非工作时间.
Elapsed time — the number of calendar periods required to complete an activity.
共用时间---完成一个完整工作所需要的日历时间.
Preliminary Schedule vs. Schedule Baseline
初始时间表与进度基线比较
Preliminary schedule — produced when specific resources are not yet known, and the project start date is not confirmed.
初始工期表---产品需要的特别资源是未知时，并且项目的开始日期还没有确定
Schedule baseline — produced when specific resources are known, when their availability is known and committed, and when the project start date is set.
进度基线---产品需要的特别资源是已知的，已知其有效性和项目开始日期已确定.
Building a
Preliminary Schedule
建一个初始的进度表
Determine the duration: 确定工期：
Budgeted Effort hours / hours per period / percent available 努力时间/每一阶段的小时数/可用百分比
Example: 举例：
24 hours of effort / 8work hours per day / 70% availability = duration
24小时的努力/每天工作8小时/70%的可用率 = 天为工期
Combine these duration estimates with your network logic and critical path analysis to produce a preliminary schedule. 将你的网络逻辑和关键路径分析合并这些工期估算，做一个初步的进度表.
Add schedule contingency as appropriate.
适当加入应急储备时间
Building a Schedule Baseline创建一个进度基线
Confirm effort estimates with the assigned resource.
用已有资源确定努力估算.
Convert the effort estimates into a calendar using the known availability of the specific resource:
用确定的可用的特定资源将努力估算转换成一个日历表：
Consider holidays and vacations. 考虑假期.
Consider anything that might affect expected availability. 考虑可能会影响预期效果的因素.
Add schedule contingency as appropriate.
适当加入应急储备时间。
Critical Path Method (CPM)
关键路径法
Critical Path Method is a network analysis technique used to predict project duration.
关键路径法是用于预测项目周期的一种网络分析技术.
Basic CPM algorithm underlies all modern network analysis.
CPM的基本运算法则是所有现代网络分析的基础.
Definitions: Critical Path
定义：关键路径
The network path:
网络路径：
With the longest duration.
有最长的延续时间.
Which determines the shortest total length of the project.
决定最短的项目时间.
With the least amount of “float.”
有最少的“时间松动量”.
Which is most likely to cause the project to be late.
最可能引起项目延迟.
Which Path Is Critical?
哪一条路径是最关键的？
A (18)
D (11)
E (13)
B (14)
F (16)
Start
开始
Finish
结束
C (12)
“Critical” Activities
关键作业
Critical path activities if project is schedule constrained
如果项目进度受到限制，就是关键路径作业
Very difficult or uncertain activities
很难或不确定的作业
Very visible activities
很明显的作业
Activities with very scarce or specialized resources
采用很罕见或很专业资源的作业
See attachment:
Critical Path Exercise
看附件：关键路径练习
Critical Path Calculations
关键路径计算
A (14)
F (5)
H (13)
L (21)
Start
Finish
B (11)
M (2)
Q (12)
ES EF
LS LF
1 14
15 19
20 21
1 11
15 27
28 39
12 32
1 14
33 37
38 39
15 27
28 39
4 14
19 39
= 0
= 18
Critical Path Calculations
关键路径计算
CPM forward pass — to determine the project’s “natural end date” based on its early start and early finish dates.
关键路径法的向前计算---确定项目的“自然结束日期”是基于最早开始和最早结束的日期.
CPM backward pass — to determine late start and late finish dates.
CPM的向后计算---确定晚开始或晚结束的日期.
Definition: Total Float
定义：总松动时间
The amount of time an activity may be delayed without affecting the project’s early finish date.
在不影响项目最早完成日期情况下，一个作业可能延误所花的时间.
Total Float = Late Start – Early Start
Total float is a measure of scheduling flexibility
总松动时间 = 晚开始时间 - 早开始时间
总松动时间是一个时间进度弹性的衡量
Exercise: The Moon King
练习：月亮王
1. Louis the 10th holds you captive until you produce a plan for adding three new dungeons to his castle.
路易10世把你抓为俘虏，要求你为他的城堡加三个新地牢而做一个计划.
The small dungeon is difficult to design (12 weeks at maximum productivity), but easy to build (1 week). The medium dungeon is typical is design (5 weeks) and construction (6 weeks). The large dungeon is easy to design (1 week) but hard to build (9 weeks).
小的地牢很难设计（最快要12周），但是容易建成（1周）。 中等的地牢是典型的，设计（5周），施工（6周）。大的地牢容易设计（1周），但是很难建造（9周）.
You have a single designer and a single builder. Your designer can’t build and your builder can’t design.
你有一个设计师和一个建筑师。 你的设计师不会建造而建筑师不会设计.
What is the shortest possible duration of a project to add one dungeon of each kind to Louis’s castle?
给路易的城堡增加三个地牢的最短周期是多少？
Louis’s Network
路易的网络图
Design Small (12)
设计小的
Build
Small (1)
建造小的
Build
Medium (6)
建造中等的
Design Medium (5)
设计中等的
Build
Large (9)
建造大的
Start
Finish
Design Large (1)
设计大的
Schedule Contingency
应急时间储备
A (14)
F (5)
H (13)
L (21)
Start
开始
Target
目标
B (11)
M (2)
Q (12)
Promise
承诺
?
Use a Gantt Chart to
Display the Schedule
用甘特图演示进度
P R O J E C T S U C C E S S
C R I T E R I A 项目成功的标准
Topics covered in this module: 本章节的内容提要：
Definition of “project success”
“项目成功”的定义
Underlying assumptions
潜在的假设
Success metrics 成功的标尺
Project Success =
Product Success
+
Project Management Success
项目成功= 成功的产品+ 成功的项目管理
Product Scope vs.
Project Scope
产品范围和项目范围的比较
Product-Oriented Processes vs. Project Management Processes
产品导向流程和项目管理流程的比较
Product-oriented processes are concerned with specifying and creating the product of the project:
产品导向流程着重于建立和说明项目的产品：
Market requirements, product design, etc. 市场需求, 产品设计等
Project management processes are concerned with describing and organizing the work of the project:
项目管理流程着重于描述和组织项目的工作：
Scope definition, estimating, etc.
范围定义，估算等
Underlying Assumptions
潜在假设
Defining and measuring success is more likely to produce success.
成功的定义和衡量较可能带来成功
A well-managed project is more likely to produce a successful product.
一个管理良好的项目很可能会生产一个成功的产品.
Overemphasis on cost and schedule can contribute to product failure.
过分关注成本和进度会导致产品失败
Success Metrics
Project management success metrics:
Are always measurable at project completion.项目完成时总是可以衡量的.
Are usually within the control of the project management team.
通常会在项目管理团队的控制之内.
Product success metrics:
May not be measurable until long after the product of the project has been delivered.在项目的产品被投放以前可能无法被衡量.
Are often beyond the direct control of the project team.常常会超出项目团队的直接控制.
Sample Metrics 标尺样本
Project management success: 项目管理成功
Weak — on time. 弱的 - 准时
Better — all major milestones completed by date committed.
较好的 - 在承诺日期前完成所有确认的主要里程碑
Product success: 产品成功
Weak — increased profits. 弱的 – 增加利润
Better — revenue of $15 million within 12 months. 较好的 - 12月内15百万的营业额
Exercise: Success Criteria
练习：成功的标准
Identify the sponsor and the customer(s) for your project. 确定你项目的赞助人和客户
Develop metrics to describe how you think each will measure both project management success and product success. 制定成功标尺以描述你认为他们会怎样衡量项目成功和产品成功
Be prepared to share your results with the rest of the program participants.
准备与其它学员分享你的结果
R I S K M A N A G E M E N T风险管理
Topics covered in this module:
本章节内容提要：
Basic definitions
基本概念
Sources of risk
风险来源
Assessing and responding to risks
对风险的评估和反应
Definition: Risk
定义：风险
“A chance or possibility of danger, loss, or other adverse consequences”
“危险，损失或其他不利结果的机会或可能性”
Oxford Dictionary
牛津字典
Why concern ourselves with risk management on projects?
我们为什么要考虑项目中的
风险管理？
Sources of Risk
风险的来源
Assumptions and constraints — things that can go wrong
假设和限制----可能引起错误的事情
Planning errors — WBS omissions, estimating errors
计划误差----WBS疏忽，估算误差
Regulatory — new or changed regulations
规范----新的或改变的法规
Environmental — weather, rising fuel costs
环境---天气，上扬的燃料成本
Other projects — reliance on their deliverables, their staff
其他的项目----猎取他们的提交件和职员
Others??
其他的？？
Identifying Risks 鉴别风险
Review your list of assumptions and constraints — each represents a risk.
回顾你所列出的假设和限制 – 每一项代表一个风险
Review your WBS — what can go wrong with each activity or deliverable?
回顾你的WBS – 每项作业或完成件哪里会出错？
Brainstorm with your team.
与你的团队进行脑力风暴
Consider problems from previous projects. 考虑以往项目中出现的问题
Assessing Risks
评估风险
Consider probability of occurrence:
考虑发生的可能性：
High, Medium, Low
高，中，低
Consider impact to the project if the risk does occur:
考虑如果发生风险对项目的影响：
High, Moderate, Low
高，中，低
Develop Strategies
发展策略
Avoid — eliminate a specific risk by eliminating the cause.
回避---通过消除起因来消除特定风险
Mitigate — minimize the likelihood of the event occurring and/or reduce the impact if it does.
减轻 ---缩小发生事件的可能性并/或减低其发生时造成的 影响.
Accept — accept the consequences.
接受---接受结果
Examples of each?
每一项的例子？
Exercise: Risk Management
练习：风险管理
Identify at least 10 risks on your project. Assess their probability and impact.
确定你项目中的至少10项风险. 评定其发生概率和影响.
2. For each of the 5 most significant risks:为最重要的5项风险
How could you avoid this risk?你怎样能回避它？
How could you mitigate this risk?你怎样能减轻它？
What would you recommend as a response: avoid, mitigate, or accept?你会建议什么方案作回应？
3. Prepare a presentation, appoint a spokesperson, and be prepared to convince the appropriate approval body that you have done an adequate job of risk management.
准备一个陈述文稿，指定发言人，用充足的论点来阐述你在风险管理中所做的工作.
E X E C U T I N G
P R O C E S S E S
实施流程
Topics covered in this module:
本章节内容提要
Key skills for project plan execution
项目计划执行的关键技巧
Accountability matrix
职责性矩阵
General Management and Application Area Skills Are Key
常规的管理和应用领域的技巧是关键
Project Management Skills 项目管理技巧
General Management
Skills 常规的管理技巧
Application Area Skills 应用领域技巧
Accountability Matrix职责性矩阵
…
N
P
R
Activity 4
C
N
P
R
Activity 3
C
P
P
R
Activity 2
N
C
P
R
Activity 1
…
F
E
D
C
B
A
Person
Work Item
R = Responsible P = Participant C = Consult N = Notify
R= 负责的 P= 参与的 C= 受咨询的 N= 被通知的
P E R F O R M A N C E
M E A S U R E M E N T
业绩衡量
Topics covered in this module:
本章节的内容提要：
Purpose of performance measurement
业绩衡量的目的
Basic techniques 基本方法
Earned value concepts 挣值概念
Why measure
project performance?
为什么要衡量项目的业绩？
Basic Approaches
基本步骤
Smaller projects or unstable scope
较小的项目或不稳定的范围
Weekly or biweekly deliverables
每周或双周的交付件
Done or not done
已做完的或没做完的
Larger projects
较大的项目
Earned value
挣值法
Earned Value
挣值法
Build (and plot) your baseline
建立（绘出）你的基线
2. Record (and plot) the actuals
记录（绘出）实际动态
3. Measure (and plot) performance
衡量（绘出）业绩
Build Your Baseline
建立你的基线
Etc.
Etc.
Scheduled progress 预定的进展
Plot Your Baseline
绘出你的基线
Cumulative
Values
累积价值
Time
Scheduled
Progress
预定进展
Record Your Actuals
记录实际情况
…
Item 4
Item 3
Item 2
Item 1
Fri
Thu
Wed
Tue
Mon
Plot Your Actuals
绘出实际情况
Cumulative
Values
累积价值
Time
Scheduled
Progress
预定的进展
Actual Cost or Effort
实际成本或工作量
Measure Your Performance
衡量你的业绩
0
No
40
Item 5
30
Yes
26
30
Item 4
40
Yes
40
Item 3
0
No
40
Item 2
30
Yes
47
30
Item 1
EV
Done?
Actual
Budget
Earned value = budget for completed item
挣值 = 已完成项的预算
Plot Your Performance
绘出你的业绩
Cumulative
Values
积累价值
Time
Scheduled
Progress
预定的进展
Actual Cost or Effort
实际成本或工作量
Earned Value
挣值
Use Ratios for Estimates
at Completion
完成时用比率作估算
Cost Performance Index (CPI) = Earned Value / Actual Costs
成本表现指标=挣值 / 实际成本
Cost Estimate At Completion (Cost EAC) = Total Planned Progress / CPI
完成所需的成本估算（EAC）=总的计划进度 / CPI
Schedule Performance Index (SPI) = Earned Value / Planned Progress
进度表现指标=挣值/ 计划进度所需
Schedule EAC =Planned Duration / SPI
进度的完成时估算=计划周期 / SPI
Earned Value Acronyms
挣值缩写
BCWS =
Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled 计划工作的预算成本
Scheduled progress 预定的进展
ACWP =
Actual Cost of Work Performed 实施工作中的实际成本
Actual cost or effort 实际成本
BCWP =
Budgeted Cost of Work Performed 实施工作中的预算成本
Earned value 挣值
C H A N G E C O N T R O L
变化控制
Topics covered in this module:
本章节的内容提要：
Requirements of good change control
好的变化控制的要求
Change control process
变化控制的步骤
Some Discussion Items:
一些讨论事项：
Documentation 文档
Who documents the request?
谁对要求作文档记录？
Scope of analysis 分析的范围
What to consider?
怎样考虑？
Mandatory 强制性的
When is a request mandatory?
何时一个要求是强制性的？
Approval authority 审批授权
Who decides to accept a change?
谁决定接受一个变化？
A Defined Process
一个定义的流程
Is it mandatory?
它是强制性的吗？
Examples of a mandatory change?
一个强制性变化的例子？
If yes — complete analysis, update plan, and communicate impact on triple constraint.
如果是--- 需完成分析，更新计划，沟通三重限制的影响.
2. Is it discretionary?
是自由决定的吗？
If yes — estimate analysis required, get approval to conduct analysis, update plan, and conduct analysis.
如果是---估算分析需求，获得批准进行分析，更新
计划并执行分析.
A Defined Process (cont’d)
When analysis is complete:
当分析完成时：
Communicate triple constraint impact of implementing the change.
沟通实施变化时三重限制的影响.
Secure a go/no-go decision from the appropriate stakeholders.
从利益关系人处获取做或不做的决定。
4. Communicate decision as appropriate:
沟通决定的适当性
If yes — update project plan and proceed with modified project.
如果接授--- 修正项目计划并继续调整过的项目.
If no — communicate rationale to requestor.
如果不接受--- 与要求方沟通理由.
S O M E F I N A L
T H O U G H T S
最后的一些想法
Topics covered in this module:
本章节的内容提要：
Making the most from your investment in training
从投资的培训中得到更多
Fine Tune Your Style...
精练你的风格…
Project scope statement? 项目范围说明？
Work breakdown structure? 工作分解结构？
Range estimates? 范围估算？
Critical path analysis? 关键路径分析？
Cost and schedule contingencies?
成本和工期进度的突发性？
Earned value? 挣值法？
Change management? 变化管理？
A T T A C H M E N T S
附件
The true test of a management professional is not what you know how to do, but how you behave when you don’t know what to do.对专业管理人士的最真实的考验不是你知道怎样做，
而且在你不知道时也知道如何行动
--------项目管理大师
Attachments 附件
Project scope statement
项目范围说明
Cost or effort estimating worksheet
成本和工作量估算工作表
Cost estimating spreadsheet
成本估算电子数据表
Critical path exercise 关键路径练习
Further reading 进一步的阅读
图一
完工
X 10星期
X 25星期
Z 15星期
Y 5星期
30星期
25星期
A:基建部分
B:供应系统
图二:关键路线流程安排
25
5
Y
X
A
完工
10
15
B
X
Z
关键路线 (共50星期)
图三:关键路线流程安排
10
15
Z
X
B
完工
25
5
A
X
Y
关键链 (共40星期)
何谓TOC?
Toc (Theory Of Constraints)，中文译名为制约法,由以色列籍物理学家及企管大师高德拉特博士 (Dr Eliyahu Moshe Goldratt) 提出，主要由一套思维方法支持。其思维方法主要是找出核心问题，提出环链的新观点。环链由多个环组成，各环互相合作，才能提高效率。在绝大多数的环链上所作的改善，并没法增加整体环链的强度，故主要目的就是要找出最弱一环，加以改善。Toc主要应用在生产管理、项目管理和配销管理三方面，关键链就是项目管理方法。
Brief mention of PM Culture model. Then position this program as focused on individual projects,
Learning point: a project is temporary and unique.
Narrative: Ask the class to read Section of the PMBOK Guide. While they’re working, prepare two flip charts headed “The Same” and “Different.” When the class is done, ask them for characteristics that projects share with on-going work (“the same”) and for characteristics that distinguish projects (“different”). Then ask: why are these characteristics important?
Different: temporary and unique provides the foundation for later discussions in the program about the importance of planning, completion criteria, and flexibility.
The same: lots of general management concepts apply within project management.
Learning point: primary focus of project management is on meeting the needs of the stakeholders.
Narrative: There are many definitions of project management. This one is from the PMBOK Guide, Section , and emphasizes the importance of the stakeholders, so [transition to next slide with something like “who are your stakeholders?”]
Learning point: many types/categories of stakeholders; they should be identified and considered; stakeholder management is an important PM responsibility.
Narrative: Ask for list of types/categories of stakeholders; scribe on flip; post for later reference. List should include at least:
• Customer, user, sponsor
• Team (and families?!)
• Management
• Stockholders
• Community
• Contractors
• Project manager
Reference PMBOK Guide definition of stakeholder (Section ) — individuals and organizations who are involved in the project or whose interests may be affected (positively or negatively) by successful project completion. This is a broad definition of stakeholder.
You might ask what role stakeholders play in the “Project Challenges.”
Mention (or elicit from class) the idea that one of the things that makes project management hard is the number of stakeholders with differing and/or conflicting needs and interests.
Key point: Progressive elaboration of specifications requires phasing. The knowledge gained during one phase will provide the information needed to more accurately plan and estimate subsequent phases.
Point out that these phases are generic ones that are widely applied in a variety of industries.
Learning point: projects often get into trouble if there is no type 1 project — without proper analysis, we either solve the wrong problem or implement a less than adequate solution.
Narrative: There are two major “kinds” of projects:
• Those undertaken to decide how best to address a problem or opportunity (a business need — the stuff from PMBOK Guide Section ).
• Those undertaken to implement the solution (product) selected by the first type of project.
Illustrate this with an example, .:
• Problem (for type 1) = volunteer organization wants to raise funds to support its mission. There are many ways it could do this (auction, raffle, carnival, etc.), so it initiates a project to select one solution. That solution becomes the product description for type 2 project.
Note that in the example above, the whole effort may be treated like one project from the organization’s view.
Ask why it might be important to make this distinction, or if formalizing this approach would address any of the project challenges.
Consider bringing out idea here that some larger projects may have each phase treated as a separate project. In essence, this means that the “problem” is so large and complex that you can’t tell for sure whether the solution (the product) is right without developing more detail.
Learning point: the role of the PM is a broad and complex one.
Narrative: These points come from a presentation made by Peter Middleton who was the project manager for the design and construction of the English Channel Tunnel (the Chunnel).
Ask similar questions to those on the previous slide — do you agree? is this what you’re responsible for, etc. You might also want to ask people to compare and contrast the two views.
Feel free to skip this slide if you have had a rich discussion around the previous one.
Brief mention of PM Culture model. Then position this program as focused on individual projects,
