훐퇫닆뺭듳톧톧놨2010쓪뗚6웚컒맺랿뗘닺볛룱뗄뫪맛뗷뿘ꆪꆪꆪ믹폚2003틔살뗄쪵횤ChinapisHousingPriceMacro2controlꆪꆪꆪBasedonEmpiricalStudysince2003죎쒾죙1ꆡ쯕맺잿2ꆡRENMu2rongꆡSUꆡGuo2qiang(11뫾쓏뮳뮯톧풺뺭볃톧쾵ꆡ뮳뮯ꆡ418000ꆡ21맣뚫짌톧풺뷰죚톧풺ꆡ맣훝ꆡ510320)[햪ꆡ튪]랿볛컊쳢쫇짧믡맘힢뗄붹뗣컊쳢횮튻,싛컄톡폃랿뗘닺쿺쫛볛룱횸쫽ퟷ캪랿뗘닺튵볛룱쮮욽뗄듺뇭뇤솿,듺뇭췁뗘뿘훆뇤솿뗄캪랿뗘닺췁뗘뾪랢쏦믽횸쫽,듺뇭춶뿘훆뇤솿뗄캪랿뗘닺뾪랢춶횸쫽,듺뇭랿뗘닺튵랢햹뗄헾닟뮷뺳폫ퟛ뫏쮮욽뗄캪랿뗘닺뾪랢ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽,뛔2003쓪틔살랿뗘닺볛룱뫪맛뗷뿘뷸탐쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ쪵횤뷡맻뇭쏷:컒맺ퟔ2003쓪틔살뗄랿볛짏헇폫릩룸늻ퟣ쫇폐맘뗄;뫪맛헾닟뮷뺳뗄뿭쯉틔벰샖맛쟩탷뗄쏖싾뿉틔떼훂랿볛뗄짏헇;랿볛뇭쿖돶뫜잿뗄풤웚탔ꆣ헾뢮뿉틔춨맽튻쾵쇐헾닟살퓶볓췁뗘릩룸ꆢ볓뿬뾪랢쯙뛈ꆢ틽떼쿻럑헟폫춶헟뗄풤웚살욽틖랿볛ꆣ[맘볼듊]랿뗘닺볛룱ꆡ뫪맛뗷뿘ꆡ쪵횤[훐춼럖샠뫅]F293135ꆡ[컄쿗뇪쪶싫]Aꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]1000-1549(2010)06-0055-06튻ꆢ틽퇔벰컄쿗퓚2003쓪틔살뗄랿뗘닺튵뫪맛뗷뿘훐,훐퇫헾뢮ퟛ뫏퓋폃쇋닺튵헾닟ꆢ췁뗘헾닟ꆢ믵뇒헾닟ꆢ쮰쫕헾닟뗈룷훖쫖뛎,뛔랿뗘닺춶폫랿볛뷸탐뗷뿘,웤돶첨헾닟쫽솿횮쏜벯ꆢ솦뛈횮듳ꆢ잣짦쏦횮맣뾰돆잰쯹캴폐ꆣ좻뛸,늻웚뛸훁뗄뷰죚캣믺뎹뗗듲싒쇋뻶닟닣뗄뗷뿘늽랥,쯦ퟅ2008쓪9퓂16죕퇫탐쿂뗷듻뿮믹ힼ샻싊뫍힡랿릫믽뷰듻뿮샻싊,뇪횾ퟅ5쓪뛠살뗄뷴쯵탔헾닟쿲,춬쪱룷뗘랿뗘닺쫐뎡튻욬쿴쳵,짮?ꆢ짏몣ꆢ놱뺩뗈뗘뗄랿볛듳럹쿂듬ꆢ쿖랿쫐뎡쇣돉붻ꆢ췁뗘싅싅쇷엄ꆢ릺랿헟뛏릩횮짹늻뻸폚뛺ꆣ떱듳늿럖죋뮹돁뷾퓚뛔랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄놯맛횮훐쪱,늻횪늻뻵펭살쇋2009쓪슥쫐뗄ꆰ킡퇴뒺ꆱ,떽쇋2009쓪쿂냫쓪,랿뗘닺쫐뎡튻즨틵,룷뗘랿뗘닺쫐뎡욵욵짏퇝ꆰ뗘췵욵돶ꆱꆢꆰ솿볛웫짽ꆱꆢꆰ튻랿쓑쟳ꆱ뗄믰놬뎡쏦,랿볛볇슼틑돉캪샺쪷,돶쿖쇋쎻폐ퟮ룟횻폐룼룟뗄첬쫆,쳓샫ꆰ놱짏맣ꆱ뗄뫴짹랴펳쇋뫜뛠듳돇쫐컞랿헟뗄컞쓎,쯦ퟅ2009쓪9퓂1죕맺췁풴늿랢늼뗄ꆶ맺췁풴늿맘폚퇏룱붨짨폃뗘맜샭듙뷸엺뛸캴폃췁뗘샻폃뗄춨횪ꆷ뇪횾ퟅ컒맺랿뗘닺튵뫪맛뗷뿘헾닟훘탂웴뚯ꆣ맘폚랿볛짏헇뗄풭틲,힡랿뫍돇쿧붨짨늿뿎쳢ퟩ(2004)럖컶캪뗘볛짏헇췆뚯뛠훖힡랿탨쟳췺쪢,뛸짮닣듎뗄풭틲퓚폚쿻럑헟풤웚룄뇤[1]ꆣ훐맺짧믡뿆톧풺폫짧믡뿆톧컄쿗돶냦짧(2007)솪뫏랢늼뗄ꆶ2006쓪훐맺랿뗘닺랢햹놨룦ꆷ풤닢컒맺랿뗘닺볛룱뎤웚쟷쫆쫇짏짽뗄,웤풭틲퓚폚쫐뎡탨쟳췺쪢;릩룸뷡릹쪧뗷;맺볒탅듻뗄믽벫횧돖;뗘랽헾뢮뗄췆뚯;좱랦맦랶폐킧뗄탅쾢엻슶훆뛈[2]ꆣ짲퓃ꆢ쇵뫩폱(2004)죏캪죧맻랿뗘닺볛룱뗄짏헇횻쫇춶믺퓬돉,좱랦쿠펦뗄뺭볃믹뒡횧돖,헢훖볛룱짏헇믡쿲쫐뎡랢돶듭컳뗄탅뫅,퓬돉랿뗘닺쫐뎡뫍뺭볃뗄탩볙랱죙[3]ꆣ맘폚랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄뗷뿘랽쪽,솺퓆랼,룟쳺쎷(2006)춨맽쪵횤죏캪컒맺랿뗘닺쫐뎡횻듦퓚뻖늿엝쒭,춨맽샻싊살뗷뿘랿뗘닺쫐뎡,돉킧늻듳,떫쫇탅듻맦쒣뗄뇤뮯뛔랿뗘닺춶폐뷏듳뗄펰쿬[4]ꆣ탭뺭폂ꆢ십풭(2005)죏캪펦떱냑뫪맛뗷뿘뗄쟐죫뗣럅퓚횱뷓뗷뿘랿뗘닺쫕룥죕웚:2010-3-4ퟷ헟볲뷩:죎쒾죙,쓐,뫾쓏퓀퇴죋,뺭볃톧늩쪿,뫾쓏뮳뮯톧풺뷌쪦,퇐뺿랽쿲:랿뗘닺뺭볃;쯕맺잿,쓐,뫾쓏뎤즳죋,맣뚫짌톧풺뷰죚톧풺뷌쪦,훐쓏닆뺭헾램듳톧늩쪿퇐뺿짺,퇐뺿랽쿲:춶샭싛폫쪵볹ꆣ55
훐퇫닆뺭듳톧톧놨2010쓪뗚6웚릩쟳짏ꆣ컈뚨랿뗘닺볛룱뗄맘볼퓚폚쪵쿖폐킧릩쟳욽뫢[5]ꆣ맘폚랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄뗷뿘킧맻,쓴톧럥뗈(2005)퓋폃쿠맘럖컶ꆢGranger틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뫍킭헻럖컶랽램뛔컒맺믵뇒헾닟펰쿬랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄킧펦폫쪱훍뷸탐쪵횤럖컶,뇭쏷믵뇒헾닟쓜릻펰쿬랿뗘닺춶뫍볛룱,믵뇒릩펦솿뛔랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄펰쿬뇈샻싊헾닟룼캪쿔훸[6]ꆣ샮붡량뗈(2005)샻폃Johansen킭헻볬퇩럖컶쇋틸탐탅듻폫랿뗘닺볛룱뗄뎤웚맘쾵뫍틲맻맘쾵[7]ꆣ뛔헢튻싖뗄랿뗘닺뗷뿘뗄킧맻,뫎퇞(2006)죏캪:튻쫇웕춨짌욷랿릩펦퓶볓,킡뮧탍랿볛짏헇뗃떽튻뚨뿘훆;뛾쫇춶믺탐캪뗃떽틖훆,췢뎴랿룼캪맦랶;죽쫇탅듻쫕뷴,릺랿헟룼캪뷷짷;쯄쫇랿뗘닺뾪랢웳튵뛚뗘뛚랿쫜떽틖훆[8]ꆣ퇮폱헤ꆢ컄쇖럥(2005)죏캪퓚뷰죚헾닟랽쏦,뿉틔닉좡퇏뿘탅듻헾닟뗄듫쪩ꆣ퓚췁뗘헾닟랽쏦뿉틔쪵쪩ퟮ퇏룱뗄췁뗘뿘훆헾닟[9]ꆣ헅(2006)죏캪컒맺랿뗘닺튵뗄뗷뿘킧맻늻뺡죧죋틢뗄풭틲폐틔쿂벸뗣:뻶닟닣뛔쫐뎡에뛏폐럖웧;헾닟횴탐뮷뷚(맜샭믺훆)폐컊쳢;랿볛탅쾢쪧헦;뫪맛뗷뿘헾닟퓚ퟛ뫏펦폃훐늻킭뗷ꆢ늻맦랶[10]ꆣ돌붨쪤(2007)죏캪2003쓪틔살,맺볒ퟛ뫏퓋폃탐헾ꆢ닆쮰ꆢ뷰죚ꆢ췁뗘뗈쫖뛎훰늽볓듳쇋랿뗘닺뫪맛뗷뿘솦뛈,떫킧맻늢늻뺡죧죋틢,랿볛돖탸짏헇ꆢ쫐뎡훈탲믬싒뗈컊쳢틀뻉뇈뷏춻돶[11]ꆣ듓짏쫶컄쿗훐뿉틔뾴돶,톧헟쏇뛔랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄에뛏듦퓚럖웧,뛔랿뗘닺쫐뎡뫪맛뗷뿘뗄킧맻듦퓚헹틩,놾컄쓢뛔헢튻싖랿뗘닺쫐뎡볛룱뗄뫪맛뗷뿘뷸탐샭싛폫쪵횤럖컶ꆣ뛾ꆢ놾싖뫪맛뗷뿘뗄쳘뗣ퟛ뫏믘맋놾싖랿뗘닺뫪맛뗷뿘,컒쏇랢쿖헢튻싖뫪맛뗷뿘폐죧쿂죽룶쳘뗣:11뗷뿘헾닟뗄뷗뛎탔럇뎣쏷쿔ꆣ2004쓪뗄뗷뿘훷튪쫇캪쇋틖훆랿뗘닺춶맽뿬퓶뎤,닉좡뗄헾닟훷튪쫇ꆰ맜퇏췁뗘ꆢ뾴뷴탅듻ꆱꆣ2005쓪뗄뗷뿘쒿뇪평2004쓪뗄뿘훆랿뗘닺춶맦쒣맽듳뗄떥튻쒿뇪쿲볈뿘훆춶쯙뛈폖튪틖훆랿볛맽뿬짏헇뗄쮫훘쒿뇪뇤ꆣ2006쓪뗄뗷뿘헾닟좡쿲맘탄뗍쫕죫볒춥뗄힡랿놣헏컊쳢,죧춨맽ꆰ쮫쿞쮫뺹ꆱ뗄듫쪩룄짆짌욷랿뗄릩룸뷡릹,춨맽뺭볃쫊폃랿폫솮ퟢ랿붨짨놣횤뗍쫕죫뷗닣뗄힡랿컊쳢,쯤좻헢킩듫쪩뗄킧맻늻뫜쏷쿔,떫뿉틔뾴돶훐퇫헾뢮뗷뿘뗄쮼슷뮹쫇쪮럖쟥컺뗄ꆣ2007쓪뗄뗷뿘훷튪쿲틖훆랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄춶믺탐캪,죧쳡룟쫗뢶뇈샽ꆢ뚳뷡뛾쳗랿듻ꆢ듲믷ꆰ뛚뗘ꆱ탐캪뗈ꆣ21뗷뿘헾닟뻟폐ퟛ뫏탔뫍쾵춳탔ꆣ헢튻싖뗄뫪맛뗷뿘,훐퇫헾뢮룹뻝뗷뿘뛔쿳뗄늻춬닉좡쿠펦뗄뗷뿘쫖뛎,탎돉쇋ퟛ뫏쪹폃탐헾쫖뛎ꆢ램싉쫖뛎뫍뺭볃쫖뛎뗄헾닟쳥쾵,뛔헾뢮뗄뚯풱쓜솦폫횴탐쓜솦뷸탐쇋튻듎좫쏦뗄볬퇩,킧맻믹놾뿉틔(랿볛쯤좻쎻뿘훆힡,떫춶뮹쫇퓚헆뿘훐)ꆣ31뗷뿘쫖뛎쳥쿖돶닮틬뮯뗄쳘헷ꆣ헢듎랿뗘닺뫪맛뗷뿘뗄튻룶짮뿌놳뺰쫇뢴퓓뗄맺볊뺭볃뮷뺳폫훮뛠뗄맺쓚쎬뛜붻횯퓚튻웰,훐퇫헾뢮퓚뗷뿘훐뇭쿖돶튻뚨뗄쇩믮탔,퓚헾닟훆뚨폫횴탐훐힢틢럖쟥쎬뛜뗄훷듎,뗷뿘쫖뛎힢훘쟸뇰뛔듽,럖샠횸떼ꆣ훷튪쳥쿖퓚볈튪뿘훆랿뗘닺춶쯙뛈,틖훆춶믺탔탨쟳,폖튪놣뮤웕춨뻓쏱뗄뗄릺랿믽벫탔ꆣ퓚췁뗘짳엺폫탅듻짳엺쮫뷴뗄쟩뿶쿂,췁뗘릩펦ꆢ쿮쒿짳엺ꆢ탅듻횧돖뗈헾닟뚼쿲뺭볃쫊폃랿폫훐뗍떵힡랿쟣킱ꆣ퓚틖훆춶믺탔탨쟳뗄춬쪱,뛔웕춨뻓쏱뗄ퟔ훷탔탨쟳룸폨듻뿮ꆢ쮰쫕뗈랽쏦뗄폅믝ꆣ죽ꆢ랿뗘닺쫐뎡볛룱볲떥뚯첬쒣탍짌욷랿볛룱뗄탎돉믺훆폫웤쯻짌욷샠쯆,랿뗘닺닺욷뗄볛룱튲쫇평쫐뎡뗄릩룸뫍탨쟳뻶뚨뗄,랿뗘닺쫐뎡ퟮ훕볛룱뗄탎돉틀삵폚쫐뎡짏릩룸뫍탨쟳뗄뇤뮯ꆣ맺볒뿉틔춨맽펰쿬랿뗘닺뗄릩룸뫍탨쟳살펰쿬랿뗘닺짌욷볛룱ꆣ평폚랿뗘닺짌뗄뾪랢탐캪좡뻶폚랿뗘닺쿮쒿솢쿮쪱뗄랿볛(샽죧퓚2008쓪쿂냫쓪평폚랿볛쿂뗸,랿뗘닺짌뾪랢솿붵떽뇹뗣,짮?쫐헾뢮췁뗘엄싴돶쿖쇣돉붻),뛸튻룶슥엌뗄듓쿮쒿닟뮮ꆢ탐헾짳엺ꆢ릤돌짨볆ꆢ쪩릤놨붨ꆢ짌욷랿풤쫛탭뿉ꆢ붨짨릤돌뾢릤탨튪튻쓪틔짏쪱볤,틲듋랿뗘닺쫐뎡릩룸평짏튻웚볛룱뻶뚨,뛸쿻럑헟폫춶헟뗄릺싲탐캪믹놾평떱잰뗄랿볛펰쿬ꆣ캪쇋볲뇣,볙짨탨쟳폫릩룸뚼쫇쿟탔뗄ꆣ죧맻폃D뇭쪾짌욷랿뗄탨쟳솿,S뇭쪾짌욷랿뗄릩룸솿,P뇭쪾짌욷랿뗄쿺쫛볛룱,퓲뿉틔볲떥뗘폃쿂쏦뗄쿟탔쒣탍뿌뮭랿뗘닺쫐뎡릩쟳횮볤뗄뚯첬맘쾵d:qt=a-bpta,b:0sq=c+dptt-1c,d:0(1)dq=sqtt듺죫뫳뿉뗃:56
훐퇫닆뺭듳톧톧놨2010쓪뗚6웚a-cdpt=-pt-1(2)bb쯹틔쒳튻쪱뿌뗄랿볛릹돉튻룶튻뷗럇웤듎뚯첬쾵춳ꆣ쯄ꆢ쪵횤럖컶(튻)쫽뻝톡좡폫뒦샭놾컄톡폃랿뗘닺쿺쫛볛룱횸쫽ퟷ캪랿뗘닺튵볛룱쮮욽뗄듺뇭뇤솿,듺뇭췁뗘뿘훆뇤솿뗄캪랿뗘닺췁뗘뾪랢쏦믽횸쫽,듺뇭춶뿘훆뇤솿뗄캪랿뗘닺뾪랢춶횸쫽,듺뇭랿뗘닺튵랢햹뗄헾닟뮷뺳폫ퟛ뫏쮮욽뗄캪랿뗘닺뾪랢ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽ꆣ퇐뺿뗄쫽뻝쟸볤쫇2003쓪1퓂ꆪꆪꆪ2008쓪4퓂,뻹캪퓂뛈쫽뻝ꆣ룷샠횸뇪뗄쫽뻝톡좡뻹살ퟔ맺랿뺰웸횸쫽ꆣSJZꆢTDZꆢTZZꆢZZ럖뇰뇭쪾랿뗘닺쿺쫛볛룱횸쫽ꆢ랿뗘닺췁뗘뾪랢쏦믽횸쫽ꆢ랿뗘닺뾪랢춶횸쫽ꆢ랿뗘닺뾪랢ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽ꆣꆡꆡ(뛾)킭헻럖컶맽돌폫뷡맻뇭1ꆡꆡ쪱볤탲쇐욽컈탔뗄떥캻룹볬퇩뷡맻11쪱볤탲쇐욽컈탔뗄떥캻룹볬퇩뇤솿볬퇩샠탍ADF횵1%쇙뷧횵5%쇙뷧횵볬퇩뷡맻볬퇩뷡맻쿔쪾,쯹폐뇤솿풭탲쇐뗄춳볆솿뗄ADFSJZ(c,t,2)-2158-4112-3149늻욽컈뻸뛔횵뻹뗍폚5%쇙뷧쮮욽,헢쮵쏷풭탲쇐퓚5%뗄쿔TDZ(c,t,1)-2196-4111-3148늻욽컈훸탔쮮욽뻹뷓쫜쇣볙짨H0,틲듋,쯹폐뗄풭탲쇐뚼TZZ(c,t,10)-1100-4114-3150늻욽컈쫇늻욽컈뗄ꆣ4룶뇤솿쾵쇐퓚뺭맽튻닮럖뫳,웤훐ZZ(c,t,1)-3108-4111-3148늻욽컈ꚤꚤSJZ(c,0,0)-4155-3154-2191욽컈SJZꆢꚤTDZ뗄ADF춳볆솿퓚1%쮮욽쿔훸,ꚤTZZꆢꚤZZ뗄춳볆솿퓲퓚5%뗄쮮욽쿔훸,헢쮵쏷4룶탲쇐뗄ꚤTDZ(c,0,0)-4153-3154-2191욽컈ꚤ튻뷗닮럖탲쇐쫇욽컈뗄,틲듋뿉틔뗃돶뗄뷡싛쫇TZZ(c,0,9)-3142-3156-2191욽컈,ꚤZZ(c,0,0)-3114-3154-2191욽컈SJZꆢTDZꆢTZZꆢZZ뚼쫇튻뷗떥헻탲쇐,벴I(1)ꆣ(c,t,n)뇭쪾떥캻룹볬퇩샠탍,c뇭쪾뷘뻠,t뇭쪾쪱볤쟷21킭헻맘쾵볬퇩쫆,n뇭쪾훍뫳뷗쫽ꆣ훍뫳뷗쫽뗄톡퓱쫇룹뻝AICힼ퓲,쯹톡뗄훍퓋폃Johnsen(l988)뫍Juselius(1990)쯹쳡돶뗄뫳뷗쫽쪹뗃AIC횵ퟮ킡ꆣ쯹폐뗄럖컶쪹폃eviews610췪돉ꆣJohnsen볬퇩뛔놾컄뗄뛠뇤솿쾵춳뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ볬퇩SJZꆢTDZꆢTZZꆢZZ횮볤뗄킭헻맘쾵,킭헻볬퇩뷡맻볻쿂뇭ꆣ뇭2SJZꆢTDZꆢTZZꆢZZ횮볤킭헻볬퇩뷡맻볙짨킭헻랽돌룶쫽벣춳볆솿5%훃탅쮮욽P횵쎻폐5610122947185613010071ퟮ뛠튻룶2818063029179707010347ퟮ뛠솽룶1115121515149471011819ퟮ뛠죽룶1125232631841466012631ꆡꆡ퓚5%훃탅쮮욽짏,SJZ뻜뻸쇋폫TDZꆢTZZꆢ뇭3ꆡꆡSJZ폫TDZꆢTZZꆢZZ뗄킭헻랽돌횸뇪ZZ횮볤늻듦퓚킭헻맘쾵,쟒듦퓚캨튻뗄킭헻랽돌ꆣ뇤솿쾵쫽t춳볆솿P횵캪쇋쿻돽닐닮ퟔ쿠맘C49129228511344910,퓚믘맩랽돌폒뇟틽죫펦뇤솿뗄훍뫳쿮ퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿,뗃떽죧쿂킭헻랽돌ZZ01874377418128190:TZZ-0184297-51381360SJZ=-011TDZ-0184TZZ+0187ZZ+0198TDZ-0110023-2174704010081SJZ(-1)-0139SJZ(-2)(6-17)SJZ(-1)01975469715682650룷춳볆솿죧폒뇭쯹쪾SJZ(-2)-013853-318556010003:평믘맩뷡맻뿉틔뾴돶:믘맩랽돌F춳볆솿횵뫜R201953643Meandependentvar10518913R2듳,뇭쏷믘맩랽돌헻쳥쿔훸;R2=0195,냦R2=R201949504S1D1dependentvar21667628S1E1ofregression0159945Akaikeinfocriterion119061580195뇭쏷쒣탍뗄뷢쫍쓜솦뷏잿;룷뇤솿쾵쫽t춳볆솿횵춨맽쇋1%훃탅쮮욽뗄볬퇩Sumsquaredresid20112307Schwarzcriterion2111201;DW춳볆솿캪Loglikelihood-5310909F춳볆솿23014041185뇭쏷랽돌닐닮늻듦퓚뗍뷗ퟔ쿠맘ꆣDW춳볆솿11851803Prob(F-statistic)057
훐퇫닆뺭듳톧톧놨2010쓪뗚6웚ꆡꆡ듺뇭췁뗘뿘훆뇤솿뗄캪랿뗘닺췁뗘뾪랢쏦믽ꆡꆡ뇭4ꆡꆡ랿볛횸쫽폫랿뗘닺뾪랢춶횸쫽ꆢ췁횸쫽(TDZ),듺뇭춶뿘훆뇤솿뗄캪랿뗘닺뾪랢ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗘뾪랢쏦믽횸쫽ꆢ랿뗘닺뾪랢ퟛ뫏춶횸쫽(TZZ)잰쏦뗄쾵쫽뻹캪뢺횵,뇭쏷힡ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뺰웸횸쫽뗄룱삼뷜틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뷡맻랿쫐뎡럻뫏웕춨짌욷뗄릩쟳맘쾵쳘뗣,벴컒맺ퟔ쇣볙짨ObsF춳볆솿P횵2003쓪틔살뗄랿볛짏헇폫릩룸늻ퟣ쫇폐맘뗄,듺TDZdoesnotGrangerCauseSJZ5451524740뇭랿뗘닺튵랢햹뗄헾닟뮷뺳폫ퟛ뫏쮮욽뗄캪랿뗘SJZdoesnotGrangerCauseTDZ12140860닺뾪랢ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄쾵쫽캪헽횵,뇭쏷뫪맛헾TZZdoesnotGrangerCauseSJZ5441788580100029닟뮷뺳뗄뿭쯉틔벰샖맛쟩탷뗄쏖싾뿉틔떼훂랿볛SJZdoesnotGrangerCauseTZZ41732070100032뗄짏헇ꆣ춬쪱,컒쏇뇘탫힢틢뗄쫇훍뫳튻뷗뗄랿ZZdoesnotGrangerCauseSJZ5441907430100024뗘닺쿺쫛볛룱횸쫽뛔놾웚랿볛폐뫜잿뗄뷢쫍ퟷ폃SJZdoesnotGrangerCauseZZ16144570,웤쾵쫽듯0198,벴랿볛뇭쿖돶뫜잿뗄풤웚탔ꆣTZZdoesnotGrangerCauseTDZ5421136310104961TDZdoesnotGrangerCauseTZZ61725860(죽)룱삼뷜틲맻볬퇩평짏뇭뿉횪,퓚훍뫳10뷗뗄쟩뿶쿂,랿볛횸ZZdoesnotGrangerCauseTDZ5411579980115628쫽폫랿뗘닺뾪랢춶횸쫽ꆢ췁뗘뾪랢쏦믽횸쫽ꆢTDZdoesnotGrangerCauseZZ11974470106948랿뗘닺뾪랢ퟛ뫏뺰웸횸쫽뗄룱삼뷜틲맻맘쾵볬퇩ZZdoesnotGrangerCauseTZZ5421965220100900뷡맻죧쿂춼쯹쪾TZZdoesnotGrangerCauseZZ21252050103898:(쯄)싶돥쿬펦럖컶믹폚컳닮탞헽쒣탍뮹뿉틔뷸탐싶돥쿬펦럖컶,싶돥쿬펦몯쫽뿌뮭뗄쫇VAR쒣탍훐튻룶쓚짺뇤솿뗄돥믷룸웤쯻쓚짺뇤솿쯹듸살뗄펰쿬,쯼뿉틔캪튻룶뇤솿ퟷ폃폚쇭튻룶뇤솿뗄뚯첬쳘헷쳡릩룼뛠뗄탅쾢[13]ꆣ춼1훁춼4쫇믹폚VEC쒣탍뗄룷펰쿬틲쯘뛔랿뗘닺볛룱뗄싶돥쿬펦몯쫽쟺쿟ꆣ듓춼2뾴떽,랿볛퓚튻뾪쪼뻍뛔웤ퟔ짭뗄뷡릹돥믷닺짺헽뗄쿬펦,쿬펦뗄잿뛈훰붥짏짽퓚뗚4웚듯떽ퟮ룟좻뫳폐쯹쿂붵늢놣돖컈뚨;듓춼3뫍춼4훐뾴돶,쯤좻랿볛뛔췁뗘뾪랢쏦믽뫍랿뗘닺춶뗄뷡릹돥믷뗄쿬펦뷏싽,떫뛾헟뛔랿볛돥믷뗄솦뛈뚼뷏듳,돥믷돖탸뗄쪱볤튲뷏뻃,웤훐췁뗘뾪랢쏦믽퓚뗚4웚횮뫳닺짺튻룶뢺쿲돥믷,뛸랿뗘닺춶뛔랿볛닺짺튻룶돖탸뗄뢺쿲돥믷;랿뗘닺ퟛ뫏춶뾪랢쮮욽뛔랿볛닺짺튻룶헽쿲돥믷좻뫳훰붥쮥복훁쇣ꆣꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ춼1ꆡ랿볛뷡릹돥믷뗄랿볛쿬펦춼2ꆡ췁뗘뷡릹돥믷뗄랿볛쿬펦58
훐퇫닆뺭듳톧톧놨2010쓪뗚6웚듓쪵횤뷡맻컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽:췁뗘뾪랢쏦믽ꆢ랿뗘닺뾪랢춶쮮욽ꆢ좫맺랿뗘닺튵믹놾퓋탐ힴ뿶뗈횸뇪폫랿볛릹돉쮫쿲뗄룱삼뷜틲맻맘쾵,웤훐좫맺랿뗘닺튵믹놾퓋탐ힴ뿶뛔랿볛폐헽쿲뗄돥믷펰쿬,뛸췁뗘뾪랢쏦믽ꆢ랿뗘닺뾪랢춶쮮욽뛔랿볛폐튻룶뢺쿲돥믷펰쿬,랿볛뛔ퟔ짭뗄펰쿬뷏캪잿쇒,랿볛폐잿쇒뗄풤웚뇭쿖ꆣ평듋뿉볻:헾뢮뿉틔춨맽튻쾵쇐헾닟죧닺튵헾닟ꆢ췁뗘헾닟ꆢ닆헾헾닟ꆢ쮰쫕헾닟살퓶볓췁뗘릩룸ꆢ볓뿬뾪랢쯙뛈ꆢ틽떼쿻럑헟폫춶헟뗄풤웚살욽틖랿볛,춬쪱컒쏇펦룃힢틢뗄쫇랿볛랴맽살뛔랿뗘닺뾪랢믮뚯튲뻟폐훘듳뗄펰쿬솦:랿볛짏헇믡듸살춶퓶볓ꆢ췁뗘탨쟳췺쪢ꆢ랿뗘닺튵틔벰쿠맘닺튵뗄랱죙;뛸랿볛뗄쿂탐믡떼훂춶캮쯵ꆢ췁뗘탨쟳늻ퟣꆢ랿뗘닺틔벰쿠맘닺튵뗄쮥췋ꆣꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ춼3ꆡ춶뷡릹돥믷뗄랿볛쿬펦춼4ꆡ랿뗘닺ퟛ뫏뾪랢쮮욽돥믷뗄랿볛컥ꆢ킡뷡폫럖컶11틖훆랿볛뿬쯙짏헇뗄쫆춷쫇캬뮤짧믡컈뚨뗄탨튪ꆣ쫗쿈,랿뗘닺튵뗄붡뾵뿬쯙랢햹쫇컒맺쿖뷗뛎뗄뺭볃짧믡랢햹뗄뿍맛튪쟳,뛔폚삭뚯룖쳺ꆢ붨닄벰볒뗧볒뻓폃욷뗈닺튵랢햹뻙ퟣ쟡훘,뛔뷰죚튵컈뚨뫍랢햹훁맘훘튪,뛔폚췆뚯뻓쏱쿻럑뷡릹짽벶ꆢ룄짆쏱짺뻟폐훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣ웤듎,듓뺭볃랢햹뷗뛎살뾴,컒맺헽뒦퓚릤튵뮯훐웚,얩듥쪣폠샍뚯솦쿲돇쫐뛾ꆢ죽닺튵뗄틆풶캴뷡쫸,돇쫐뮯헽뒦폚튻룶볓쯙뷗뛎,평듋떼훂컒맺뗄힡햬탨쟳쫐뎡엓듳,떫쫇헢킩좺쳥튻냣쫕죫뷏뗍,짧믡릺싲솦럇뎣폐쿞,죧맻힡랿볛룱짏헇맽뿬,퓲믡폐쿠떱뛠뗄짧믡뗗닣릫훚놳뢺첫듳뗄힡랿쿻럑톹솦ꆣ뛸쿭폐힡랿쫇릫쏱뗄튻훖믹놾좨샻,놣헏릫쏱뗄힡랿좨샻쫇헾뢮뗄펦뺡퓰죎,죧맻늻쓜뺡뿬쪹짧믡힡랿릩룸뫍탨쟳듯떽뻹뫢,믡틽랢뷏듳뗄짧믡쎬뛜ꆣ21뗷뿘훘뗣펦럅퓚ퟅ솦뷢뻶춶뗷뿘폫볛룱뗷뿘뗄쎬뛜ꆣ듓짏쏦뗄럖컶뿉틔뾴돶,랿뗘닺춶폫볛룱듦퓚쮫쿲뗄룱삼뷜틲맻맘쾵,컒맺헾뢮퓚랿뗘닺튵뗄춶쮮욽뗷뿘랽쏦펵폐뷏듳뗄훷뚯좨,평폚훐퇫헾뢮슢뛏쇋췁뗘풴폫뷰죚풴,춨맽췁뗘헾닟폫뷰죚쫖뛎뿉틔폐킧뗘뗷뿘춶쮮욽,헢뗣퓚웤쯻컄쿗뗄퇐뺿틑뺭횤쏷ꆣ좻뛸뿘훆춶쮮욽폫럀횹랿볛짏헇늢늻쓜춳튻웰살,짵훁볢죱뛔솢ꆣ뻟쳥뗘쮵,퓚랿뗘닺튵랱죙뷗뛎,헾뢮웴뚯뛔랿뗘닺춶쮮욽뗄뗷뿘믡떼훂릩펦뷸튻늽뷴헅,듙뷸랿볛짏헇풤웚뗄뷸튻늽잿뮯,랿볛뗷뿘쒿뇪쓑틔쪵쿖,캪쇋뮺뷢헢룶쎬뛜,펦룃듓틔쿂쯄룶랽쏦ퟅ쫖:뗚튻,뿘훆탨쟳랽쏦ꆣ쫗쿈쫊떱뿘훆룶죋힡랿듻뿮탨쟳ꆣ웤듎퇏룱뿘훆놻뚯탨쟳,틔벰퇏룱쿞훆춶믺탨쟳ꆣ랿컝춶믺탨쟳잿쇒펰쿬쿻럑헟틔벰춶헟뗄풤웚,뛔랿볛짏헇뻟폐벫듳뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃,펰쿬랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄컈뚨,틲뛸뇘탫춨맽쾵쇐헾닟퇏룱쿞훆ꆣ뗚뛾,맦랶췁뗘볛룱뫍룄짆릩룸뷡릹랽쏦ꆣ튪냑췪짆췁뗘돶죃훆뛈폫맦랶췁뗘볛룱ꆢ뿘훆룟볛캻랿컝퓶뎤폫삩듳뗍볛캻랿컝릩룸뇈훘춳튻웰살,튪럀횹볌탸틔췁뗘킭틩볛믲뇤쿠킭틩볛뷸탐췁뗘뗍뷸룟돶뗄췁뗘춶믺뫍뎴싴;맦랶헾뢮퓚췁뗘엄싴훐뗄탐캪,훰늽탎돉럻뫏췁뗘릩탨맘쾵ꆢ랴펳췁뗘볛횵뗄췁뗘엄싴볛룱;춨맽삩듳랿뗘닺웳튵맦쒣킧펦뗈붵뗍돉놾,복짙췁뗘헇볛틲쯘맽뛠뗘쿲랿볛틆ꆣ퓚쳡룟뗍볛캻랿컝뇈훘랽쏦,튪쟸뇰늻춬랿컝뷡릹뗄춶ힴ뿶,춨맽퓶볓헾뢮춶ꆢ삩듳짧믡춶뫍믵뇒탅듻쟣킱,볓듳뗍볛캻쳘뇰쫇뺭볃쫊폃랿춶뗄솦뛈,룄뇤뺭볃쫊폃랿뇈훘뗍뫍췑샫뻓쏱쫕죋뷡릹뗄ힴ뿶ꆣ뗚죽,틽떼룷랽쏦뗄샭탔풤웚랽쏦ꆣ튻랽쏦,튪틽떼랿뗘닺뾪랢짌샭탔죏쪶떽랿볛맽뛈엲헍뗄럧쿕,냑샻죳퓶볓뗄뚯솦룼뛠뗘럅퓚삩듳웳튵맦쒣ꆢ쳡룟랿컝훊솿ꆢ폅뮯랿컝뷡릹뫍붵뗍뺭펪돉놾짏ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦,튪틽떼쿻럑헟샭탔뗘죏쪶떽ꆰ싲헇늻싲뗸ꆱ뗄럧쿕,뿋럾ꆰ퇲좺탐캪ꆱ탄샭,냑풤웚붨솢퓚쇋뷢랿59
훐퇫닆뺭듳톧톧놨2010쓪뗚6웚뗘닺쫐뎡벰웤뇤뮯뗄탅쾢믹뒡횮짏ꆣ뗚쯄,틽떼쿻럑맛쓮뗄뇤랽쏦ꆣ맺볒탨튪뗷헻힡랿헾닟,맄샸쳝벶쿻럑,틖훆쳡잰쿻럑ꆣ춨맽틔짏쯄룶랽쏦뗄얬솦,헾뢮닅폐뿉쓜퓚랿뗘닺춶뗷뿘쪱늻잿쇒뗘뒥뚯랿뗘닺볛룱헢룹쏴룐뗄짱뺭,닅뿉쓜놣횤랿뗘닺뫪맛뗷뿘쒿뇪뗄쪵쿖ꆣ31캴살햹췻ꆣ2009쓪9퓂1죕맺췁풴늿랢늼뗄ꆶ맺췁풴늿맘폚퇏룱붨짨폃뗘맜샭듙뷸엺뛸캴폃췁뗘샻폃뗄춨횪ꆷ돐뷓쇋2003쓪틔살랿뗘닺뫪맛뗷뿘뗄뷚ퟠ,뇪횾ퟅ컒맺랿뗘닺튵뫪맛뗷뿘헾닟폖훘탂웴뚯ꆣ2009쓪12퓂9죕헙뾪뗄맺컱풺뎣컱믡틩쳡돶,룶죋힡랿죃펪튵쮰헷쏢쪱쿞평2쓪믖뢴떽5쓪,웤쯻힡랿쿻럑헾닟붫믡볌탸쪵쪩ꆣ떱돵뗄폅믝헾닟듳듳붵뗍쇋뛾쫖랿뗄붻틗돉놾,퓶잿쇋뛾쫖랿쫐뎡뗄붻틗믮솦,떫튲죃뛾쫖랿쫐뎡짏돶쿖쇋튻킩춶믺쿖쿳ꆣ듋듎붫헷쏢쪱쿞믖뢴떽5쓪,컞틉붫쪹뗃뛌쿟뗄붻틗돉놾퓶듳,듓뛸틖훆춶믺탔릺랿ꆣ2009쓪12퓂14죕,맺컱풺뎣컱믡틩퓚컂볒놦ퟜ샭뗄훷돖쿂헙뾪ꆣ믡틩쳡돶쇋튪ꆰ뛴훆늿럖돇쫐랿볛맽뿬짏헇뗄쫆춷ꆱ,헢쫇ퟔ2008쓪쿂냫쓪틔살쫗듎쳡돶ꆣ뛸뛔놣돖헾닟솬탸탔뫍컈뚨탔ꆢ놣헏탔힡랿붨짨틔벰랿볛뗈컊쳢짏,쳡돶쇋퓶볓웕춨짌욷힡랿뗄폐킧릩룸;볌탸횧돖뻓쏱ퟔ힡뫍룄짆탍힡랿쿻럑;틖훆춶춶믺탔릺랿;볓잿쫐뎡볠맜;볌탸듳맦쒣췆뷸놣헏탔낲뻓릤돌붨짨4뗣튪쟳ꆣ헢듎돶첨뗄쓚죝훷튪쫇캪쇋틖훆튻쿟돇쫐랿볛쪧뿘뗄쫆춷,떫믹폚뫪맛뺭볃풭틲,맺볒죔쾣췻랿뗘닺튵퓚삭뚯뺭볃퓶뎤훐랢믓믽벫ퟷ폃ꆣퟜ쳥뛸퇔,쯦ퟅ뫪맛뺭볃탎쪽뗄뫃,퓚믵뇒헾닟뮷뺳죔좻뿭쯉뗄뮷뺳쿂,틔벰돤ퟣ뗄쇷뚯탔폫룟쯙돇쫐뮯뗄횧돖쿂,ꆰ틖훆탔ꆱ랿뗘닺헾닟뗄쪵볊킧맻듦퓚뷏듳뗄늻좷뚨탔,랿볛뗄룕탔죔좻듦퓚ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗:[1]붨짨늿헾닟퇐뺿훐탄뿎쳢ퟩ1퓵퇹죏쪶떱잰랿뗘닺쫐뎡탎쫆[J]1훐맺랿뗘탅쾢,2004(12).[2]얣럯죰12006쓪훐맺랿뗘닺랢햹놨룦[M]1짧믡뿆톧컄쿗돶냦짧,놱뺩,2007.[3]짲퓃ꆢ쇵뫩폱1힡햬볛룱폫뺭볃믹놾쏦:1995-2002쓪훐맺14돇쫐뗄쪵횤퇐뺿[J]1뺭볃퇐뺿,2004(6).[4]솺퓆랼뗈1랿뗘닺쫐뎡폫맺쏱뺭볃킭뗷랢햹뗄쪵횤럖컶[J]1훐맺짧믡뿆톧,2006(3).[5]탭뺭폂,십풭1떱잰랿뗘닺볛룱ퟟ쫆폫뫪맛뗷뿘닟싔톡퓱[J]1뺭볃톧볒,2005(5).[6]쓴톧럥1컒맺믵뇒헾닟펰쿬랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄쪵횤럖컶[J]1뫓쓏뷰죚맜샭룉늿톧풺톧놨,2000(4).[7]샮붡량뗈1컒맺틸탐탅듻뛔랿뗘닺볛룱늨뚯뗄펰쿬[J]1짏몣닆뺭듳톧톧놨,2005(4).[8]뫎퇞:떱잰뫪맛뗷뿘뛔컒맺랿뗘닺튵펰쿬퇐뺿[J]1볛룱샭싛폫쪵볹,2006(1).[9]퇮폱헤,컄쇖럥1틖훆랿볛맽뿬짏헇뫪맛뗷뿘헾닟쪵쪩킧맻움볛벰붨틩[J]1맜샭쫀뷧,2005(6).[10]헅1랿뗘닺춶폫볛룱뫪맛뗷뿘킧맻죧뫎[J]1뺭볃맜샭,2006(21).[11]돌붨쪤1맘폚떱잰랿뗘닺뫪맛뗷뿘뗄벸뗣쮼뾼[J]1훐맺뷰죚,2007(16).[12]룱쇖:볆솿뺭볃럖컶[M]1놱뺩:쟥뮪듳톧돶냦짧,2005.[13]뷹퓆믣,뷰주쓐뗈1룟벶볆솿뺭볃톧[M]1놱뺩:놱뺩듳톧돶냦짧,:Thehousingpriceisoneofthefocalissuesofsocialconcern,thispapersempiricalstudiestherealestatepricemacro2controlsince2003byselectingtherealestatesellingpriceindexrepresentehousingpricevaria2ble;therealestatelanddevelopmentareaindexrepresentelandcontrolledvariable;thepropertydevelopmentin2vestmentindexrepresentstheinvestmentcontrolvariables;:Ourcountrypishousingpricerisesince2003relatethesuppliesinsufficiency;Themacro2policyenvironmentlooseaswellastheoptimisticmoodfillstheairmaycausethehousepricerising;,speedupthedevelopmentspeed,:RealestatepriceꆡMacro2controlꆡEmpiricalstudie(퓰죎뇠벭:틼쿍쫧)60
