我国居民消费水平的计量分析报告.pdf

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໡ݓं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥࠹ਈٳ༅БۡӧৄčቆӉĎa້ಖaݒೋࢭᅋေğ๙ݖؓ໡ݓं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥৥ൎࠣགྷሑ࿹࣮đࡹ৫ਔं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥ࣜ࠶ଆ྘đѩ࿹࣮ਔଆ྘ᇏᇶေэਈؓଆ྘֥႕ཙӱ؇đᄝՎࠎԤഈิԛਔิۚं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥ؓҦࡹၰbܱ࡯Սğं૶ཨٮඣ௜႕ཙၹ෍ଆ྘ٳ༅ؓҦࡹၰ၂aႄ࿽ं૶ཨٮඣ௜čHousehold consumption levelĎ൞ᆷ၂۱ݓࡅ၂קൈ௹ଽದૌᄝཨٮݖӱᇏؓ໾ᇉބ໓߄ളࠃླေ֥ડቀӱ؇bं૶ཨٮඣ௜čჭ/ದĎĢБۡ௹ݓଽളӁሹᆴᇏ֥ं૶ཨٮሹح/ Бۡ௹୍௜नದ१ଆ྘ᇏࡼं૶ཨٮඣ௜ቔູФࢳ൤эਈđ۴ऌࣜဒႄೆݓଽളӁሹᆴaӬཔं૶ದन൬ೆaದ१ሱಖᄹӉੱaं૶ཨٮࡎ۬ᆷඔđؓଆ྘ࣉྛ݂߭ٳ༅ᇿğၛഈඔऌটჷႿ2008୍uᇏݓ๤࠹୍࡫v ؽa႕ཙं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥ֆၹ෍ٳ༅1aݓଽളӁሹᆴؓं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥႕ཙູਔ࿹࣮ं૶ཨٮඣ௜ބࣜ࠶ؿᅚඣ௜֥ܱ༢đ໡ૌϜݓଽളӁሹᆴቔູࣜ࠶ؿᅚඣ௜֥սіྟᆷѓbႮࣜ࠶৘ંٳ༅ॖᆩđࣜ࠶ؿᅚඣ௜აं૶ཨٮඣ௜Ⴕૡ్ܱ༢bၹՎđ໡ૌഡקं૶ཨٮඣ௜HCLაݓଽളӁሹᆴGDP֥ܱ༢ູğ HCLGDP111ࡌקଆ྘ᇏෛࠏ༂ҵཛડቀܞׅࡌקđᄎႨOLSمܙ࠹ଆ྘ҕඔđࢲݔೂ༯ğ1Dependent Variable: HCLMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/29/09 Time: 14:50Sample: 1988 2008Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. Mean dependent . dependent . of Akaike info squared Schwarz -Watson Prob(F-statistic) () () 2ఃᇏđॖथ༢ඔR=Ֆ݂߭ࢲݔॖၛुԛđଆ྘୅ކ؇ޓݺđॖथ༢ඔޓۚđᆃ္іૼݓଽളӁሹᆴಒൌؓं૶ཨٮඣ௜Ⴕཁᇷ႕ཙbఃᇏđGDPૄᄹӉ1ၡჭđं૶ཨٮඣ௜௜नᄹࡆჭb2aं૶ದन൬ೆؓं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥႕ཙೂݔඪݓଽളӁሹᆴ൞ޡܴ႕ཙၹ෍đପહं૶֥ದन൬ೆࣼ൞ັܴ႕ཙၹ෍bႮႿ໡ݓӬཔҵएбࢠཁᇷđႿ൞ᄝᆃ৚ٳљॉҳਔӬᆓं૶ބ୪ըं૶֥ॖᆦ஥൬ೆؓཨٮඣ௜֥႕ཙbഡӬᆓं૶ದनॖᆦ஥൬ೆູUAIđ୪ըं૶ದनՂ൬ೆູRAIđ෱ૌაं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥ܱ༢ູğ HCLUAIđ222HCLRAI 333ᄎႨ0-4مܙ࠹ࢲݔೂ༯ğӬᆓं૶ॖᆦ஥൬ೆؓं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥႕ཙDependent Variable: HCLMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/29/09 Time: 14:51Sample: 1988 2008Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. Mean dependent . dependent . of Akaike info squared Schwarz -Watson Prob(F-statistic) č Ď č Ď R ୪ըं૶Ղ൬ೆؓं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥႕ཙDependent Variable: HCLMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/29/09 Time: 14:51Sample: 1988 2008Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. Mean dependent . dependent . of Akaike info squared Schwarz -Watson Prob(F-statistic) č Ďč Ď 3² Ⴎඔऌٳ༅֥ࢲંॖᆩđ୪ըं૶ದनՂ൬ೆؓं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥႕ཙննӑݖਔӬᆓं૶ದनॖᆦ஥൬ೆؓं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥႕ཙbᄯӮᆃᇕ౦ঃđᇶေႵၛ༯ࠫ۱ჰၹğֻ၂൞໡ݓ൞୪૶ದ१ᅝधն؟ඔ֥ݓࡅđطं૶ཨٮඣ௜൞ၛದ१ඔູಃඔؓ୪ըं૶ཨٮඣ௜ބӬᆓं૶ཨٮඣ௜ࣉྛࡆಃ௜न࠹ෘط֤֥֞Ġֻؽ൞୪ըं૶֥ཨٮ׮৯ჹჹնႿӬᆓं૶b۴ऌ৳ކݓਁ୪ቆᆮิԛ֥ѓሙđض۬غ༢ඔᄝ ၛഈູ௕঒đ i ູ໑Ўđ i ູཬूđ i ູڶღđ֮Ⴟ ູቋڶღb ୍đ໡ݓӬཔं૶֥ض۬غ༢ඔٳљູ ބ đ္ࣼ൞ඪӬᆓं૶ᆺඋႿ૨఼໑Ўđ୪ըं૶ᄵԩႿधؓ௕঒bಖط֞ ୍đ୪ըं૶ࡅ๖֥ض۬غ༢ඔࢆᇀ đطӬᆓं૶ࡅ๖֥ض۬غ༢ඔᄵࢆᇀ ॖ࡮୪ըं૶ଢభ֥ཨٮླ౰նႿӬᆓं૶b aದ१ሱಖᄹӉੱؓं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥႕ཙದ१֥؟ഒაཨٮඣ௜֥֮ۚႵૡ్֥ܱ༢bႮࣜဒٳ༅ॖᆩđᄝದ१ඔਈ၂ק֥౦ঃ༯đࣜ࠶ؿᅚඣ௜ᄀۚđཨٮ௖ඔਈᄀ؟đପહं૶ཨٮඣ௜ࣼ߶ᄀۚĠّᆭđᄝࣜ࠶ؿᅚඣ௜໗ק่֥ࡱ༯đದ१ඔਈ֥؟ഒࣼथקሢཨٮඣ௜֥֮ۚbၹՎđ༯૫ၛದ१ሱಖᄹӉੱູࢳ൤эਈđഡູ9 ࣉྛ݂߭ٳ༅bഡHCLNPG444݂߭ܙ࠹ࢲݔೂ༯ğDependent Variable: HCLMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/29/09 Time: 14:52Sample: 1988 2008Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. Mean dependent . dependent . of Akaike info Sum squared resid8136851. Schwarz -Watson Prob(F-statistic) ݂߭ࢲݔіૼđದ१ૄᄹӉ bđं૶ཨٮඣ௜௜न༯ࢆ ჭbఃჰၹᇶေ൞໡ݓದ१ࠎඔնđࠧ൐ᄹӉੱޓ֮đ္൐֤ၛದ१௜नট࠹ෘ֥ं૶ཨٮඣ௜Ⴕཁᇷྟэ׮b aཨٮ໾ࡎᆷඔؓं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥႕ཙοࣜ࠶৘ંٳ༅đ໾ࡎᄀۚđᄀ߶ၝᇅದૌ֥ཨٮđཨٮඣ௜߶ᄀ֮bܣᄝՎႄೆཨٮ໾ࡎᆷඔࣉྛ݂߭ٳ༅bDependent Variable: HCLMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/29/09 Time: 14:51Sample: 1988 2008Includedobservations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. Mean dependent . dependent . of Akaike info squared resid37302690 Schwarz -Watson Prob(F-statistic)Ֆࢲݔुԛđॖथ༢ඔޓ֮đU๤࠹࡟ဒ҂ཁᇷđ࣐ܵՖࣜ࠶Мࣟٳ༅টुđཨٮ໾ࡎᆷඔॖି႕ཙཨٮඣ௜đ֌݂߭ࢲݔཁൕѩ٤ೂՎđᆃॖିა๤࠹ඔऌ༂ҵၛࠣܙ࠹ٚمႵܱ༢b೘a႕ཙं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥؟ၹ෍ٳ༅ᄝభ૫ٳ༅֥ࠎԤഈđࡼ෮Ⴕؓं૶ཨٮඣ௜႕ཙཁᇷ֥ࢳ൤эਈčཨٮ໾ࡎᆷඔԢຓĎ٢ࣉ๝၂۱ଆ྘đࣉྛ؟ჭ݂߭ٳ༅đࢲݔೂ༯ğDependent Variable: HCLMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/29/09 Time: 15:06Sample: 1988 2008 Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. Mean dependent . dependent . of Akaike info squared Schwarz -Watson Prob(F-statistic)Ֆ݂߭ࢲݔुđ࣐ܵॖथ༢ඔޓۚđF๤࠹ᆴޓնđඪૼଆ྘ᄝᆜุഈཌྟ݂߭୅ކࢠݺđ֌ӈඔཛ֥݂߭༢ඔ҂ཁᇷđӬᆓं૶ॖᆦ஥൬ೆაದ१ሱಖᄹӉੱ֥ژݼაࣜ࠶ၩၬཌྷᙣđіૼଆ྘ᇏࢳ൤эਈթᄝ࿸ᇗ֥؟ᇗ܋ཌྟb ༯૫ु۲эਈᆭࡗ֥ࡥֆཌྷܱ༢ඔğႮഈіॖၛुԛđࢳ൤эਈᆭࡗಒൌթᄝۚ؇ཌྟཌྷܱđႿ൞ᄎႨOLSٚمᇯ၂౰HCLؓ۲۱ࢳ൤эਈ֥݂߭đѩࢲކࣜ࠶ၩၬބ๤࠹࡟ဒ࿊ԛ୅ކࢲݔቋݺ֥၂ჭཌྟ݂߭ٚӱđᄝՎࠎԤഈࡼఃჅࢳ൤эਈᇯ၂սೆѩ୅ކđቋᇔ֤֞ೂ༯ଆ྘ğDependent Variable: HCLMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/29/09 Time: 15:19Sample: 1988 2008Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. Mean dependent . dependent . of Akaike info squared Schwarz Log -Watson Prob(F-statistic) čĎčĎčĎඹaิۚं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥ؓҦࡹၰ ۴ऌၛഈٳ༅đॖၛुԛิۚं૶ཨٮඣ௜֥۴Ч๯ࣥ൞ն৯ؿᅚളӁ৯b֌ᄝն৯ؿᅚളӁ৯đᄹࡆӬཔं૶ॖᆦ஥൬ೆ֥๝ൈđсྶ࿸۬॥ᇅದ१ᄹӉbູՎđ໡ૌॖၛҐ౼ၛ༯ծീğč၂Ďิۚं૶ᆜุ൬ೆඣ௜đหљ൞୪ըं૶൬ೆඣ௜b ᇏݓ൞၂۱୪ြնݓđ୪ըं૶൬ೆඣ௜֮൞ं૶ཨٮඣ௜଴ၛิ֥ۚᇗေჰၹb్ൌิۚ୪૶൬ೆđ҂ࣇ൞୪૶Ⴎ໑Ўࣉೆཬूaڿ೿୪૶ളࠃᇉਈ֥ܱ࡯đ္൞Տࠗཨٮa՜ࣉࣜ࠶ࡲूॹ෎ླྀטؿᅚ֥ᇗေሢ৯ׄb Ėaטᆜ୪ြࢲܒđิۚ୪Ӂ௖௖ᇉbטᆜބႪ߄୪ြࢲܒđն৯ؿᅚۚӁaႪᇉaۚ཮୪ြđᆃ൞֒భᄹࡆ୪ըं૶൬ೆ֥ܱ࡯ծീbטᆜࢲܒ֥ᇗׄ൞ڿ೿୪Ӂ௖௖ᇕđิۚᇉਈđᄹࡆིၭb၂൞ေሂᇾ֒భ୪Ӂ௖܂۳ԉቀ֥ൈࠏđࡆॹטᆜਁൊ௖ᇕࢲܒĠؽ൞ն৯ؿᅚ྾ତြb྾ତြᄝ୪ြളӁᇏԩႿoభঘުջp֥ᇗေߌࢫđ۞ݺਔॖၛ՜ࣉᇕᆱြaջ׮ࡆ۽ြđൌགྷ୪Ӂ௖ሇ߄ᄹᆴb೘൞ؿߨᇕᆱြԮ๤Ⴊ൝đؿᅚ୪ਟତ჋ြބ଀aหaႪaྍӁ௖đ୪Ӂ௖္ေิۚ௖இၩ്đौ௖இषຉ൧ӆb ėa၇ौ॓࠯ࣉ҄đࢆ֮୪ြളӁӮЧbᄝ֒భᄹ൬঒଴֥౦ঃ༯đࢆ֮ളӁӮЧđࡨഒ୪૶֥ᆦԛ္൞ᄹࡆ୪૶൬ೆ֥၂่ᇗေ๯ࣥbଢభđႮႿ࠯ඌཌྷؓઋުđ໡ݓ୪ြሧჷ֥০Ⴈੱჹჹ֮Ⴟؿղݓࡅඣ௜đหљ൞୪૶ᄝႨඣaႨ׈aႨֹ֩ޓ؟ٚ૫đಌك॓࿐ᆷ֝đশٮ࿸ᇗbऌҩෘđՖ1988୍֞1996୍đਁൊᄹӉਔ%,൬ܓࡎ۬ᆷඔᄹӉਔ%,֌๝௹ሹӮЧಏᄹӉਔ%bᆃ္ඪૼđࢆ֮ӮЧđᄹࡆིၭ൞๷׮୪ြࢫିᄹིđᄹࡆ୪૶൬ೆ֥ᇗေծീb Ęa๷׮୪ြӁြ߄ࣜႏđࡹ৫Ⴕ০Ⴟ୪૶ᄹ൬֥Ӂြุ༢ބ০ၭࠏᇅb๷ࣉ୪ြӁြ߄đႋ๬ԛሂݺࡹഡ୪Ӂ௖ࠎֹđ஡ტ੃๨ఒြđࡹ৫০ၭࠏᇅđປ೿ഠ߶߄ڛༀุ༢֩ࠫ۱ܱ࡯ߌࢫbęa్ൌࡨ౞୪૶ڵքbᄝᇯ҄ࡨഒ୪ြඥၛຓ֥୪ը۲ཛ൬ٮཛଢބඔح֥๝ൈđϜ ᆇᆞႋႮ୪૶ӵք֥ކ৘ྟ൬ٮٮႨႨ৫م֥ྙൔಒק༯টđ൞ࡨ౞୪૶ڵք֥۽ቔሼഈمᇅ߄aᆞܿ߄֥݅֡b๝ൈߎေޔሂࠎҪᆟکࠣۄ֥҆৷ᆟࡹഡđཨԢཟ୪૶੹ขஊa੹൬ٮ֥۲ᇕႅߑđࣉ၂҄ࡆ఼୪ըࣚപ໓ૼࡹഡđႄ֝୪૶ࡲूཨٮbčؽĎ࿸۬॥ᇅದ१ᄹӉ॥ᇅದ१ᄹӉ൞ದ१໙ี֥ᇗׄބ଴ׄbದ१ሱಖᄹӉੱᄀۚđᄀ൞ቅθഠ߶ࣜ࠶֥ؿᅚބದো֥ࣉ҄b໡ૌေ࠿࿃ൌྛ࠹߃ളტᆟҦđൌགྷ॥ᇅದ१ܿଆ֥࠻קଢѓb۴ऌ໡ݓದ१གྷሑބࣜ࠶ؿᅚඣ௜đေϜ॥ᇅದ१ԛളੱaิۚದ१෍ᇉބࢳथದ१঺ਭ߄֩໙ี๙஍ॉ੮đᇅק၂۱ކ৘ᄹӉaิۚᇉਈaႪ߄୍ਭࢲܒ֥ሸކದ१ٚσb๝ൈࡆ఼ؓଢభದ१ሑঃބದ१׮෿֥࿹࣮ٳ༅đູದ१॥ᇅaࣼြaథ၍აӬ൧߄֩ᆞಒथҦิ܂၇ऌb